SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO: | SCA & Staff |
DATE: | Tuesday, May 6, 2025 6:30 AM ET |
Afghanistan
Hero Afghan refugee who helped US forces killed for pettiest reason near new Texas home (Daily Mail)
Daily Mail [5/5/2025 4:06 PM, Sonya Gugliara, 62527K]
An Afghan refugee who courageously aided US Special Forces before fleeing his home country was shot dead over a parking spot in Texas.
Abdul Rahman Waziri, 31, was killed in his west Houston apartment building’s parking lot during a fight on April 27 at about 9:15pm, the Houston Police Department (HPD) said in a statement.
Conflict arose when Waziri pulled into the lot to check his mailbox and the alleged aggressor took issue with where he stopped his car, according to Waziri’s family’s lawyer, Omar Khawaja.
Matters escalated when the man started vandalizing Waziri’s car, sparking the fatal altercation, according to witnesses Khawaja said he spoke with.‘After the altercation is already over and Mr. Waziri is walking back to his car, shooter grabs a gun and murders him. He executes him in cold blood,’ Khawaja said, ABC 13 reported.
Police said the alleged shooter approached them and admitted responsibility. He was questioned and his gun was taken away.
But after the HPD consulted with the Harris County District Attorney’s Office, he was not immediately arrested or charged.
Abdul Rahman Waziri (pictured), 31, was killed in his west Houston apartment’s parking lot by a man he argued with over a spot on April 27 at about 9:15pm.Waziri (right) was a part of the National Mine Reduction Group (NMRG), which is an Afghan unit that worked specifically to protect American troops from Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDS).
The father-of-two was rushed to the hospital and pronounced dead as investigators probed the scene (pictured).
A spokesperson for the department told DailyMail.com he could not release the suspect’s name due to the ongoing nature of the investigation.
Waziri’s family is devastated and outraged the man who took his life was able to walk free. Now, they are demanding answers.‘We believe this was a public execution. There’s no other way to call it,’ Khawaja said.
Khawaja gathered outside the HPD alongside Afghan community leaders and Waziri’s heartbroken brother, Abdullah Khan, for a press conference on Friday.‘The killer is still out on the streets, he has not been arrested,’ Khawaja said, Click2Houston reported.‘There have not been interpreters from the Houston Police Department sent to this community where this murderer resides - who still lives in the same area as the victims.’.
The Harris County District Attorney’s Office told DailyMail.com it is waiting for the investigation to be completed before any charges are filed.
Waziri’s heartbroken brother, Abdullah Khan (pictured), spoke at a press conference on Friday, demanding justice for his brother.
In the meantime, everyone at the apartment complex is on edge knowing the alleged killer is on the loose, according to Khan, Khawaja and the community leaders.‘The whole community is thinking, if this is happening to us, then what should we do?’ Afghan leader Omar Yousafzai asked.
Waziri fled Afghanistan to escape the Taliban.
While living in his native country, he worked with the US Army for seven years, according to a GoFundMe.‘He was a hero,’ Afghan-American community leader Nisar Momand declared.
Waziri decided to move to America in pursuit of a better and safer life for him and his family.
Waziri’s family’s lawyer, Omar Khawaja (pictured) described the veteran’s death as a cold-blooded execution.Waziri (pictured) has left behind a nine-month-old, a three-year-old and a grieving widow.
Waziri died just outside his home, where he moved to escape the Taliban’s regime in Afghanistan (pictured: the apartment complex where Waziri lived).
The 1208 Foundation, a veteran-led nonprofit for former NMRG members, started another GoFundMe in Waziri’s name, writing they ‘cannot let his death be met with silence.’.
Between the two donation pages, more than $25,000 has been raised to support Waziri’s nine-month-old, three-year-old and grieving widow.‘He came here to be safe,’ Khan said. ‘But here is not safe for nobody.’. Pakistan
Pakistan Says India Chokes River Flow as Fears of Conflict Rise (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/5/2025 12:03 PM, Kamran Haider and Rajesh Kumar Singh, 16228K]
Pakistan alleged that India has almost entirely stopped the flow of water across the border through the Chenab river as fears of a clash between the two neighbors mount following a deadly attack in Kashmir.
Since Sunday morning, the water flow has been throttled by almost 90% of the usual volume that passes to Pakistan, according to Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, spokesman for Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority. The nation will be forced to slash water supplies to farms by a fifth if the flow remains curtailed, he said.“It’s unprecedented,” Rana said, adding that India typically holds some water daily for electricity generation but releases it every few hours.The alleged choking of the river follows India’s suspension of the more than six decades-old Indus Water Treaty with its neighbor in retaliation for the killing of 26 people in Kashmir last month. The region is controlled by these nations in part, but claimed in full by both. The two countries have since levied a series of tit-for-tat measures, including a ban on trade.After suspending the treaty, India started work on flushing silt at two of its dams in the Kashmir valley, Reuters reported Monday. The reservoirs will have to be refilled after the flushing is completed and that may reduce downstream flow into Pakistan, according to Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the New Delhi-based South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, which studies the social and environmental impact of water-related projects. The now suspended Indus water treaty allows flushing only during the monsoon season, he said.“On the whole, there will be no reduction in water flow,” Thakkar said. “It is temporary. Whatever comes in, flows out. Only the flow pattern may change.”Rana also said the water could be released later as India doesn’t have capacity to store it permanently. Major airlines are avoiding Pakistan’s airspace as tensions with India remain high following tourist massacre (CNN)
CNN [5/5/2025 11:02 PM, Rhea Mogul, 908K]
Multiple major airlines are avoiding flying over Pakistan as relations with neighbor India crater in the wake of a recent tourist massacre, the latest geopolitical flashpoint to disrupt global travel.
Air France said it has suspended flying over the South Asian country until further notice because of the "recent evolution of tensions between India and Pakistan" in a statement to CNN.
The airline is "adapting its flight schedule and flight plans to and from certain destinations," the French flag carrier said, adding some routes will require longer flight times.
"Air France is constantly monitoring developments in the geopolitical situation of the territories served and overflown by its aircraft in order to ensure the highest level of flight safety and security," Air France said.
Germany’s flag carrier Lufthansa also confirmed to Reuters that it was "avoiding Pakistani airspace until further notice.".
The travel disruptions come two weeks after militants massacred 26 civilians, mostly tourists, in the mountainous town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, a rampage that has sparked widespread outrage.
India was quick to place blame for the assault on Pakistan, which it has long accused of harboring militant groups. Pakistan denied involvement, and tensions have mounted since with a series of escalatory tit-for-tat moves between the two neighbors.
Both sides had already closed their airspaces to each other’s aircraft since the attack, but the increased tensions are now impacting other international airlines and will likely cost them as they burn extra fuel taking longer routes.
Airlines have already had to be cautious about other key flashpoints in recent years, including the Middle East and areas close to the Ukraine-Russia front lines.
Flight-tracking data showed some flights of British Airways, Swiss International Air Lines and Emirates traveling over the Arabian Sea and then turning north toward Delhi in order to avoid Pakistani airspace, Reuters reported.
Kashmir, one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, is controlled in part by India and Pakistan but both countries claim it in its entirety. The two nuclear-armed rivals have fought three wars over the mountainous territory that is now divided by a de-facto border called the Line of Control (LOC) since their independence from Britain nearly 80 years ago.
In the wake of the tourist massacre, India and Pakistan have been flexing their military muscle, putting both countries on edge.
Pakistan on Monday carried out a second missile test in three days, Reuters reported.
The Pakistani army said the missile tested was a Fatah series surface-to-surface missile with a range of 120 kilometers (75 miles), according to Reuters. It came two days after the successful launch of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile.
India has also ordered all its states and union territories to carry out mock security drills on Wednesday.
It comes days after India’s navy said it had carried out test missile strikes to "revalidate and demonstrate readiness of platforms, systems and crew for long range precision offensive strike.".
Tensions have ramped up despite the United States and China – two major global players – urging restraint.
The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, on Monday also urged both India and Pakistan to "avoid a military confrontation that could easily spin out of control.".
"Make no mistake: A military solution is no solution," he added. India
India Orders Civil Defense Drills as Potential Clash With Pakistan Looms (New York Times)
New York Times [5/6/2025 1:19 AM, Mujib Mashal and Hari Kumar, 831K]
India’s government has ordered officials to carry out civil defense drills in much of the country on Wednesday as it prepares for a potential military conflict with Pakistan, its neighbor and archrival.
Tensions between the nuclear-armed countries, which have fought several wars, have escalated since April 22, when gunmen killed 26 people in the India-controlled part of the Kashmir region, which both countries claim. India accuses Pakistan of being involved in the terror attack, which Pakistan denies.
India has been making a case for carrying out military strikes on what it calls havens for terrorists in Pakistan. Pakistan has promised to respond in kind to any military action by India.
In recent days, exchanges of small-arms fire have broken out along the countries’ border, and a flurry of activity in New Delhi has suggested that an Indian strike could be imminent. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has met repeatedly with his military leaders, and his officials have continued to talk in public about taking action against Pakistan.
In a letter sent on Monday to all of the country’s states and territories, India’s home ministry ordered that drills be carried out to assess the public’s readiness for conflict. In 244 districts — identified as civil defense districts because they are near the border or the coast, or because of other perceived vulnerabilities — all villages will be required to conduct drills, the letter said.
The letter, a copy of which was seen by The New York Times, said the drills should include testing air raid sirens and instructing civilians in how to navigate blackouts and carry out evacuations.
Similar drills have already been conducted near the border in recent days, particularly in Kashmir, where videos have showed schoolchildren being led through duck-and-cover drills and people cleaning bunkers meant to be used during airstrikes. India Says Putin Offered Support After Deadly Kashmir Attack (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/5/2025 9:27 AM, Eltaf Najafizada, 16228K]
India said Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, condemned last month’s deadly Kashmir attacks and urged that the perpetrators be brought to justice, as tensions with Islamabad escalate.Putin “expressed full support to India in the fight against terrorism,” Randhir Jaiswal, a spokesman for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said in a post on X on Monday. “He emphasized that the perpetrators of the heinous attack and their supporters must be brought to justice.”
“Both leaders emphasized terrorism must be fought against uncompromisingly,” the Kremlin said in a separate statement on the call. Putin also accepted Modi’s invitation to visit India for a bilateral summit, according to the statement.The call comes amid growing fears of conflict between India and Pakistan after a militant attack in Jammu and Kashmir killed 26 civilians. New Delhi has called it an act of terrorism and blamed Pakistan, which has denied involvement.Even though diplomatic efforts are underway to calm the situation, Modi’s government has continued to vow retaliation. Pakistan has warned it will respond to any attack, and on Monday tested a surface-to-surface missile for the second time in recent days to ensure operational readiness.The Kremlin hopes Pakistan and India will take steps to “reduce the degree of tensions on the border,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, according to the state-run Tass news agency.Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in separate phone calls with his Indian and Pakistani counterparts stressed the need for diplomacy to resolve the issue, according to separate statements from Moscow and Islamabad.Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also traveled to Islamabad in a bid to mediate between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Putin accepts Modi’s invitation to visit India, Kremlin says (Reuters)
Reuters [5/5/2025 6:13 AM, Gleb Stolyarov, 41523K]
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit the country, the Kremlin said on Monday.
Putin and Modi emphasized during the call which took place on Monday that relations between Russia and India were not affected by external influence and continue to develop dynamically. India Sees a Future Making Solar Panels for Itself, and Maybe the World (New York Times)
New York Times [5/5/2025 4:14 PM, Somini Sengupta, 831K]
China, the world’s clean-energy juggernaut, faces a rival right next door. And one of its top customers, no less.
India, a big buyer of Chinese solar panels and electric vehicle batteries, is using a raft of government incentives to make more green gear at home. It is driven not just by the need to satisfy the galloping energy demands of its 1.4 billion people, but also to cash in on other countries that want to China-proof their energy supply chains, not least the United States.
India remains a tiny and tardy entrant. Last year it produced around 80 gigawatts of solar modules, while China produced more than 10 times that. India is still tied to coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel: Coal is its largest source of electricity, and India plans to mine for more of it.
But India is aggressively trying to take advantage of a global energy transition and a backlash against Chinese dominance of new energy technologies.
Hoping to spur a clean energy manufacturing boom, the government is offering lucrative subsidies for locally produced solar cells and batteries, and it is restricting foreign products in its biggest renewable-energy projects. To cash in on government contracts to install rooftop solar for 27 million households by the end of this decade, for instance, companies must make the panels at home.
For New Delhi, there are social, economic and geopolitical imperatives. China is its most formidable rival — the two countries have in the past gone to war over border disputes — so India’s quest to build solar, wind and electric vehicle factories is partly designed to secure its energy supply chain. At the same time India wants to create good-paying manufacturing jobs.
Still, India confronts a dilemma facing many other countries: Either buy renewable energy technologies as cheaply as possible from China, or spend more to make the goods at home.“Strategically, to ensure we have energy independence, we need to have manufacturing capacity,” said Sudeep Jain, additional secretary in India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. “Currently, yes, there is a cost arbitrage.”
The problem is that China commands the building blocks of renewable energy goods. More than 90 percent of the polysilicon that goes into solar panels is in Chinese control. So even as India rapidly expands its production of solar panels, it still imports most of the cells that go into the panels, mainly from Chinese companies. And Indian companies that make solar cells typically import silicon wafers mainly from China.
India has a very tiny battery industry, and it has proven difficult, for a host of reasons, to scale up. Two Indian companies making electric vehicle batteries, Reliance Industries and Ola Electric, recently missed production targets they had promised to hit in exchange for government subsidies. It doesn’t help that China dominates the processing of key battery minerals like lithium.
China has “first mover’s advantage,” said Amit Paithankar, chief executive of Waaree Energies, the country’s largest solar panel maker. “It’s about us being proactive, and being a part of the solution in diversifying the supply chain for India, for the U.S. and for the world.”
Borrowing China ideas
India is lifting from the Chinese playbook in at least one way. It is counting on its enormous domestic demand.
India’s wind and solar capacity has nearly doubled in the past five years, according to the research firm Ember, making it the world’s third largest generator of electricity from renewable sources after China and the United States. It plans to incorporate 500 gigawatts of non-fossil-fuel sources into its electricity grid by 2030.
The government has put in place both carrots and sticks to encourage production.
For the past several years, there were subsidies for locally produced solar panels. Those are now being discontinued, but new subsidies are kicking in next year for locally produced solar cells that go into panels, as well as for battery cells.
Domestic demand isn’t the only driver. Last year, more than half of India’s solar modules ended up on American soil.
Now, the wild card for India’s export dreams is the tariff chaos sown by President Trump.
The latest Trump administration duties on goods imported from India are far lower (27 percent) than new duties on Chinese goods (145 percent) and on those from Southeast Asia (up to 3,500 percent), where Chinese companies have set up shop.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has sought to cultivate warm relations with Mr. Trump, and officials from the two countries say they hope to negotiate a bilateral trade deal in May. “Whatever the United States is going to import, we may still be the most competitive to supply it,” Mr. Jain said.
Wanted: More good jobs
The global energy transition potentially brings India something it badly needs: factory jobs.
Two out of three Indians are under the age of 35. A majority of people still work in agriculture. And manufacturing as a share of the national economy is still barely 13 percent, a bit lower than it was a decade ago.
The southern state of Tamil Nadu has been among the most forceful in attracting new factories, including in the clean-energy sector. Wind blade makers arrived nearly a decade ago, followed by solar panel makers and electric vehicle companies.
Tamil Nadu offered ready land and government subsidies. The state supported pensions and housing for workers.“These are all schemes we came up with, peering into the future, looking at how the world is going,” the state’s industry minister, T.R.B. Rajaa, said in an interview. “Energy is everything. Energy security must be localized.”
Perhaps most important, Tamil Nadu, with a long record of women’s education, offered an army of women workers with college degrees.
Which is how 26-year-old Amala K. came to chase her dreams at the Tata Power solar panel factory on the outskirts of a small town, Tirunelveli, near India’s southern tip. (Like most people in the region, she uses her father’s initial as a surname.)
Around 2,000 women like her run the machines round the clock at this factory. Every day, starting at dawn, they move in and out by the busload. Dark blue uniforms. Backpacks. Sandals that are traded for steel-toe factory shoes. The factory floor is largely automated. Human workers are there to make sure robot arms are working properly, to solder a junction box or pick up broken shards of wafers that have slipped in between cracks.
The sun was already shining bright and hot by 7 a.m. on a recent Wednesday, as Amala boarded a company bus after her all-night shift. The bus pulled out of the parking lot, drove past banana orchards, and wove through a river of honking cars and motorcycles. Some of the women nodded off. A few scrolled through their phones.
Amala leaned against the window. For her, the job was partly a way to defer the inevitable arranged marriage. “If I stayed home, I’d be married by now,” she said.
In between work shifts, she was preparing to take an exam to become a physics professor.
Varsha A.R., 26, sitting one row up, had to persuade her mother to let her take this job.
Her mother worried about Varsha living two hours away from home, in a workers’ dorm. So Varsha brought her there and introduced her to other workers. “I explained that this is an opportunity for my life and my career,” Varsha said.
The job meant different things to different women workers. Some said they were saving to buy gold jewelry for their weddings. Others said they were saving to go to graduate school. A few said they liked being able to buy gifts for their nieces and nephews — or buy themselves an ice cream when they wanted.
Varsha and Amala stepped off the bus and walked down a narrow lane to their dorm, two workers in an energy industry all but unknown in their parents’ time. Each year, at least seven million young Indians like them enter the labor market, according to the International Labor Organization. India’s efforts to expand its clean-energy business is a key test of the country’s efforts to deliver the skilled jobs that a new generation of Indians has come to expect.
The solar panels they help make in Tirunelveli furnish Tata Power’s four-gigawatt solar farm on the other side of the country, in the northwestern desert of Rajasthan. The wafers still come from China. So, too, many of the glass panels on which they are affixed.
The risks of relying on Chinese suppliers became abundantly clear during the coronavirus epidemic, Tata Power’s chief executive, Praveer Sinha, recalled. Shipments were disrupted. There were unexpected price swings.“It’s very important you have a supply chain that’s not vulnerable to two or three countries,” he said.
At the time, during President Biden’s term, the United States agreed. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, a government lender, supported the Tata project with a $425 million loan, with the goal of “diversifying global supply chains.”
First Solar, a U.S. company, set up shop near the state capital, Chennai, also with financing from the U.S. government. Vikram Solar, which makes solar modules near Chennai, is set to build one gigawatt of battery storage.
In an industrial park farther west in Tamil Nadu, the Indian electric scooter company, Ola, is getting ready to produce its own battery cells. At the moment, like most electric car and scooter makers in India, a majority of battery cells come from China.
Selling to America
The question for renewable energy companies now is whether they focus on the Indian market or push to sell Indian-made goods abroad.
Until recently, an export strategy was enormously profitable for Waaree Energies. It made most of its money last year exporting its Indian-made solar panels to the United States. Lured by tax breaks offered by the Biden administration, Waaree invested $1 billion in a solar-panel plant in Houston.
Other companies’ exports surged, too. Between 2022 and 2024, the export of Indian solar modules grew “exponentially” by 23 times, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a research group. So spectacular was the growth that the group concluded that India could potentially replace Southeast Asian countries as the leading supplier of solar photovoltaics to the United States.
Then Mr. Trump took office. Solar’s future in the United States became far more uncertain. Waaree stocks slumped. The company intends to continue to make solar panels for Americans, Mr. Paithankar, Waaree Energies’ chief executive, said.
In the end, whether Indian companies can muscle in on the renewable energy supply chain depends less on India and more on the geopolitical trade-offs that every government will have to make. “Whether we can become an alternative to China depends on what other countries do,” said Sumant Sinha, chief executive of ReNew Power, which builds solar and wind equipment for the Indian domestic market. “If everyone says, ‘I’m going to buy cheap,’ then China will come out dominating.” India Offers Zero-for-Zero Tariffs on Auto Parts, Steel From US (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/5/2025 11:21 AM, Shruti Srivastava and Mihir Mishra, 48775K]
India has proposed zero tariffs on steel, auto components and pharmaceuticals on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity of imports in its trade negotiations with the US, people familiar with the matter said.
Beyond this threshold, imported industrial goods would attract the regular level of duties, the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. The offer was made by Indian trade officials visiting Washington late last month to expedite negotiations on a bilateral trade deal expected by fall this year, the people said.
The two nations are prioritizing certain sectors to strike an early trade deal before the end of the 90-day pause on US President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs, the people said.
Amid a contraction in the US economy, Trump suggested Sunday that some trade deals could be sealed as soon as this week, offering the prospect of relief for trading partners seeking to avoid higher US import duties. Asian economies, including South Korea, Japan and India are among the nations leading the race for reaching interim deals with his administration.
An email to India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry was not immediately answered.
New Delhi’s offer was made after consulting export organizations, which said that mutually eliminating duties on industrial goods would not impact local industries or their competitiveness, the people said.
"We are comfortable with the zero-for-zero tariff offer as Indian products are extremely price competitive," Pankaj Chadha, chairman of the Engineering Exports Promotion Council. "I don’t see any impact if the duties are slashed. However, it has to be on a reciprocal basis.".
India exported pharmaceuticals worth $10.5 billion and engineering goods worth $19.1 billion to America in 2024-25, India’s trade ministry data showed.
Washington has also asked India to resolve its concerns around Quality Control Orders, which it considers a non-tariff trade barrier for its exports, the people said. The mandatory quality standards, which lay down benchmarks that both local and foreign manufacturers must meet before selling their goods in India, have been criticized for being non-transparent and unfair.
India is willing to reconsider its existing QCOs in sectors such as medical devices and chemicals, and has offered to sign a mutual recognition agreement with the US under which both nations will accept each other’s regulatory standards and practices.It’s unclear if these proposals will form part of the final deal.From just 14 QCOs before 2014, the number has gone up to more than 140 since 2017, a report showed. India worried about Chinese ‘dumping’ as trade tensions with Trump escalate (BBC)
BBC [5/5/2025 7:58 PM, Archana Shukla, 52868K]
The pace at 64-year-old Thirunavkarsu’s spinning mill in southern India’s Tamil Nadu state has noticeably slowed down.
The viscose yarn – a popular material that goes into making woven garments – he produces, now sits in storage, as orders from local factories have dropped nearly 40% in the last month.
That’s because Chinese import of the material has become cheaper by 15 rupees ($0.18; £0.13) per kilo and has flooded Indian ports.
With Donald Trump imposing tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods going into the US, manufacturers in China have begun looking for alternative markets.
India’s textiles makers say they are bearing the brunt of the trade tensions as Chinese producers are dumping yarn in key production hubs.
While China is the leading producer of viscose yarn, India makes most of the viscose yarn the country needs locally with imports only bridging supply gaps.
Mill owners like Thirunavkarsu fear their yarn won’t survive the onslaught of such competition.
"We can’t match these rates. Our raw material is not as cheap," he says.
Jagadesh Chandran, of the South India Spinners Association, told the BBC nearly 50 small spinning mills in the textile hubs of Pallipalayam, Karur and Tirupur in southern India are "slowing production". Many say they’ll be forced to scale down further if the issue isn’t addressed.
India recently imposed a 12% tax on some steel imports [Getty Images].
China’s Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong has sent assurances to India that his country will not dump products and in fact wants to buy more high-quality Indian products for Chinese consumers.
"We will not engage in market dumping or cut-throat competition, nor will we disrupt other countries’ industries and economic development," he wrote in an opinion piece for the Indian Express newspaper.
But anxieties about dumping are spread across sectors in India, as China - Asia’s biggest economy - is the world’s largest exporter of practically all industrial goods, from textiles and metals, to chemicals and rare minerals.
While pharmaceuticals - and later phones, laptops, and semiconductor chips - were exempted from steep tariffs, large chunks of Chinese exports still run into Trump’s 145% tariff wall. It is these goods that are expected to chase other markets like India.
Their sudden inflow will prove "very disruptive" to emerging economies in Asia, according to Japanese broking house Nomura, whose research earlier revealed that China was flooding global markets with cheap goods even before Donald Trump took office earlier this year.
In 2024, investigations against unfair Chinese imports rose to a record high. Data from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) shows, nearly 200 complaints were filed against China at the forum - a record - including 37 from India.
India in particular, with heavy dependencies on Chinese raw materials and intermediate goods, could be hit hard. Its trade deficit with China - the difference between what it imports and exports - has already ballooned to $100bn (£75bn). And imports in March jumped 25%, driven by electronics, batteries and solar cells.
In response, India’s trade ministry has set up a committee to track the influx of cheap Chinese goods, with its quasi-judicial arm probing imports across sectors, including viscose yarn.
India also recently imposed a 12% tax on some steel imports, locally known as a safeguard duty, to help halt an increase in cheap shipments primarily from China, which were pushing some Indian mills to scale down.
Despite such protections - and a loud marketing campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to boost manufacturing locally - India has found it hard to reduce its reliance on China, with imports rising even when border tensions between the two neighbours peaked after 2020.
That’s because the government has only had "limited success" with its plans to turn India into the world’s factory through things like the production linked subsidies, says Biswajit Dhar, a Delhi-based trade expert. And India continues to depend heavily on China for the intermediate goods that go into manufacturing finished products.
While western multi-national companies like Apple are increasingly looking towards India to diversify their assembly lines away from China, India is still dependent on Chinese components to make these phones. As a result, imports in sectors like electronics have risen significantly, pushing up its trade deficit.
India’s burgeoning deficit is a "worrying story", says Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) think tank, all the more so because its exports to China have dropped to below 2014 levels despite a weaker currency, which should ideally help exporters.
"This isn’t just a trade imbalance. It’s a structural warning. Our industrial growth, including through PLI (production linked incentive) schemes, is fuelling imports, not building domestic depth," Srivastava wrote in a social media post. In other words, the subsidies are not helping India export more.
"We can’t bridge this deficit without bridging our competitiveness gap.".
India needs to get its act together quickly to do that, given the opportunity US trade tensions with China have presented. But also because countries with a large rise in imports from China generally tend to see the sharpest slowdown in manufacturing growth, according to Nomura.
Akash Prakash of Amansa Capital agrees. A key reason why Indian private companies were not investing enough, was because they feared being "swamped by China", he wrote in a column in the Business Standard newspaper. A recent study by the ratings agency Icra also corroborates this view.
With fears of Chinese dumping becoming more widespread and the likes of the European Union seeking firm guarantees from Beijing that its markets will not be flooded, pressure is mounting on China - which is now urgently looking to secure newer trading partners outside the US.
China wants to completely shift the narrative, says Mr Dhar, "It is trying to come clean amidst increased scrutiny".
Despite the reassurances from Beijing, Delhi should use thawing relations with its larger neighbour to kickstart a proper dialogue on its firm stance about dumping, says Mr Dhar.
"This is an issue that India must flag, like most of the Western countries have.". India Risks Losing a $120 Billion Lifeline as US Curbs Migration (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/5/2025 10:30 PM, Swati Gupta, Saijel Kishan, and Kelsey Butler, 5.5M]
Mokhasan doesn’t fit the mold of an average village in rural India. There’s a new local council building, opulent Hindu temples and paved roads. The primary school recently received a donation of $90,000. But despite these modern amenities, the streets are largely silent. Most houses are padlocked, their yards unkempt. Neighboring villages in the western state of Gujarat, one of India’s wealthiest, are also ghost towns, emptied of residents who migrated to countries such as the US.“Everyone goes to the US to make money, and most of that money comes back to India,” says Jayesh Patel, whose entire family left the country. Patel, who runs a water bottling plant in Gujarat’s capital, Ahmedabad, frequently visits his native village to watch over the family’s land. “Everything here—the roads, temples, schools—it all comes from dollars.”
For years, money from diasporas globally has powered developing countries like India, where many villages are almost entirely dependent on remittances from abroad. The South Asian nation is the largest recipient of such funds, collecting nearly $120 billion last fiscal year, or the equivalent of the government’s annual spending on infrastructure.
But as US President Donald Trump and leaders in other wealthy nations crack down on immigration, this crucial pipeline of cash is now at risk of dwindling. Remittances total more than $800 billion globally. They are the second-biggest source of external funding to the developing world, be they from South Asian construction workers in Dubai, Mexican farm laborers in the US or Filipino nannies in Hong Kong. They account for close to a 10th of gross domestic product in the Philippines and Pakistan.
The US is the largest source of remittances worldwide. It’s common for Indian migrants to send roughly a fifth of their income back home, depending on their family situation, according to estimates from Devesh Kapur, a political science professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore who focuses on the diaspora.
Losing access to remittances carries serious consequences. When Pakistan’s annual tally fell 15% from 2021 to 2023—partly the result of unfavorable exchange rates—the economy went into a tailspin. The International Monetary Fund stepped in with a bailout, and Pakistan nearly defaulted, with concurrent political crises making its problems worse. Although the inflow of remittances has since rebounded, fear persists of more disruptions. Trump’s administration recently added Pakistan to a list of countries that may face significantly tougher visa restrictions.
For many Indians, intensifying scrutiny of skilled visas such as H-1B could also have an impact. Undocumented workers remit a higher proportion of their paychecks, yet the majority of money flowing to India comes from legal and often well-paid immigrants, according to Kapur. Permanent paths to working in the US are already narrow. Green cards—indefinite work permits granted to a limited number of applicants from a given country—are more difficult for Indians to obtain because of higher demand. During Trump’s last term, stricter security checks lengthened both the wait time for US visas and the backlog for green cards. From 2016 to 2019, legal immigration declined by 13%.“The American dream is turning into an American nightmare,” says Prasad Thotakura, president of the Indian American Friendship Council in Dallas, which seeks to educate members of Congress about the diaspora.
Anxiety is high in immigrant communities across the US. In New York’s Jackson Heights neighborhood, a Little India of sorts about 5 miles (9 kilometers) from Manhattan, migrants lined up outside one of the many money transfer kiosks on a recent afternoon. Among them was Kumar, who declined to give his full name or immigration status. He worried about how Trump’s policies may impact his ability to live in the US. “I have sleepless nights,” he says. “Everything is so uncertain for so many of us.”
In Gujarat, Sanjay Shah was also tense. Since 2023, Shah’s 19-year-old son has sent about $3,000 back to India every month to support his relatives. “The US benefits from cheap labor, and we get extra cash,” Shah says.
For officials in both countries, topics related to immigration are pressure points in an otherwise budding relationship. In recent years, the US and India have pulled closer as a check on Chinese hegemony. Over the past few years, American multinationals have expanded their footprint in India, whether through making iPhones on the subcontinent or outsourcing increasingly sophisticated operational support. Some of the US’s brightest minds are Indian immigrants, with Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Adobe Inc. all run by members of the diaspora. Even so, Indians account for the third-highest number of undocumented migrants to the US. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s economy has expanded at a brisk pace, but generating enough high-paying jobs for a population of 1.4 billion has remained elusive.
As a result, public messaging is complicated. Earlier this year, when the US deported a group of undocumented migrants and handcuffed them on the airplane, the Indian government said little about their treatment. Local news outlets noted the silence, contrasting it with the harder-line statements from Colombia and Brazil when the US returned their citizens.
In other parts of the world, a record $170 billion in family remittances flowed to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024, according to the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank. More than a third of that money made its way to Mexico, the focus of much of Trump’s harshest rhetoric on immigration.
Eastmont Community Center, which provides social services in East Los Angeles, where per capita income hovers around $23,000 a year, serves mostly Mexican Americans. Even during tough times, those who use ECC’s services, many of them undocumented, often prefer to cut back on spending in the US rather than stop sending money to Mexico.“If they do make modifications, it’s to their own finances here, not to what they’re sending to their loved ones or relatives,” says Isaias Hernandez, the organization’s executive director.
Yet that strategy has started to shift over the past couple of months. At UnLocal, an immigrant rights group serving New York City and surrounding areas, some families are now holding back on sending cash to avoid creating a paper trail, according to executive director Tania Mattos. Within days of Trump’s inauguration in January, officials signed off on mass deportation flights and an executive order attempted to end so-called birthright citizenship. (The issue is now tied up in the Supreme Court.) Since late January, US officials say they’ve already arrested about 66,000 people for immigration violations.
Nearly half of the people UnLocal works with are choosing not to send remittances through official channels like large money transfer services, according to Mattos, who mainly works with families from Latin America. “They’re opting to stay as anonymous as possible and go back into the shadows,” she says. “They’re saying it’s dangerous for me to do this right now and I’m going to wait until I find another way.”
Back in India, Mahindra Vithal Das, 65, who lives in Gujarat’s Mehsana district, has few solutions at his disposal for his two sons. Both made harrowing and expensive journeys to reach the US, where they work in convenience stores and send money home to support Das and his wife. If his sons are forced to return to India, Das says he himself would go to make sure the money keeps coming. The benefits of earning salaries in dollars are simply too lucrative to pass up. “If they come back,” Das says, “they won’t earn enough to live comfortably.” NSB
Tariffs Could Wreck What Bangladesh’s Garment Workers Have Gained (New York Times)
New York Times [5/6/2025 12:00 AM, Alex Travelli and Saif Hasnat, 831K]
It was always going to be a hard year for Bangladesh. Last summer, amid an economic collapse, protesters toppled a tyrant and pushed the country to the brink of chaos.
Then a month ago, as a new government was still working to steady Bangladesh’s economy, came the devastating news that the United States was placing a new 37 percent charge on the country’s goods. Bangladesh relies on revenue from its exports to buy fuel, food and other essentials.
President Trump soon paused those tariffs on Bangladesh and dozens of other countries after the world recoiled. But the possibility they will be reinstated worries the workers who make a living in Bangladesh’s garment factories.
Murshida Akhtar, 25, a migrant from northern Bangladesh living near Dhaka, has been supporting her family from sewing machines for the past five years. One day recently, she and 200 other workers, 70 percent of them women, signed on for new jobs at 4A Yarn Dyeing, in the industrial hub of Savar.
Ms. Akhtar conceded feeling apprehension about the tariffs. But she was excited for the change in jobs. She expected to be paid $156 a month at 4A — slightly more than at her previous job and with a shorter commute and a nicer work environment.“My worry is that orders will be reduced,” she said. “Then there is less work.”
Bangladesh, a country of 170 million people crammed onto a delta the size of Wisconsin, was derided as an economic lost cause after its violent birth in the 1970s. It has grown steadfastly since the 1980s on the back of its garment industry. Bangladeshi workers, and women in particular, made the country a seamstress to the world. In the process, the average Bangladeshi has become better off than the average citizen of even India, the giant country next door.
Ms. Akhtar is one of about four million Bangladeshis directly employed in the making of garments for export. Perhaps five times as many, including her husband and their son, depend on jobs like hers.
A tariff like the one Mr. Trump has planned, along with side effects like the 145 percent tariff that he applied to Chinese goods, would break the very engine of Bangladeshi growth.
Before Mr. Trump paused the tariff, Bangladesh’s interim leader, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus, wrote him a letter asking for a 90-day reprieve. Mr. Yunus promised that his country would buy more American cotton and other goods to help reduce its trade surplus, which last year was $6 billion.
Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, an economist at the University of Dhaka, was less deferential. He called the tariff threat “an ugly display of power.” It came just as the country, after decades of enviable growth, was facing a recession and vulnerable, he said.
A currency crisis in 2024 weakened the government of Sheikh Hasina, who had come to rule with an iron grip over 15 years. Her ouster caused an immediate security vacuum. Nine months later, Bangladesh has yet to come up with a plan to restore its democracy.
Nearly 85 percent of Bangladesh’s exported goods are garments, and more ship to the United States than to any other country. Even if Mr. Trump does not bring back the 37 percent tariff when his self-defined grace period ends in July, Bangladesh will face the 10 percent tariff that he levied on virtually the entire world.
Even 10 percent is hard to swallow in a low-margin business like the clothing trade. Competition is fierce from China, the only country that exports more, as well as from India, Vietnam, Cambodia and Sri Lanka.
Bangladesh’s political upheaval was viewed as a sign of hope by Western proponents of liberal democracy. India was annoyed at the demise of an alliance it had built with Ms. Hasina. But the administration of former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. welcomed Mr. Yunus.
Bangladesh’s central bank scrambled to contain the fallout from a plundering of the financial system by Ms. Hasina’s regime. It anticipated a year of reduced growth but believed that business would perk up to normal by 2026. Tariffs put an end to that hope. The World Bank has already lowered its expectations for Bangladesh’s next two years of growth.
The country is feeling the heat from the International Monetary Fund, which cleared a $4.7 billion loan last year.“We are under tremendous pressure from the I.M.F. to reduce subsidies and hike the prices” of fuel, said Fahmida Khatun, the director of the Center for Policy Dialogue, a think tank in Dhaka.
The 10 percent tariff and the prospect of more strike at the heart of a garment sector that has transformed itself. In 2013, a gigantic sweatshop called Rana Plaza collapsed, killing more than 1,100 workers. The grotesque loss of life made foreign buyers, major Western clothing brands among them, doubt that they could stick with their local partners.
But the industry rallied, understanding that it needed to change to survive. There is still a vast space where Rana Plaza once stood, on the main road from Dhaka into Savar. The grim conditions the site represents have guided the future of Bangladeshi manufacturing.
The industry has consolidated. While the number of companies making garments has shrunk, the value of their exports and the number of people employed has grown. Bangladesh is home to 230 garment factories certified under the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design program, a U.S.-led protocol of best practices policed by inspectors who make periodic visits. That is more than any other country in the world.
Among them is 4A Yarn Dyeing, where Ms. Akhtar works. Despite its name, it hasn’t dyed yarn for years. It concentrates on higher-value outerwear, mostly jackets with fancy zippers, waterproofing and other hard-to-make bits. It proudly lists buyers from American brands ranging from Carhartt to Calvin Klein, but has even more European customers than Americans.
The five working floors of 4A Yarn Dyeing’s factory heave with workers cutting, sewing and stitching the latest for Costco’s Jachs New York series. Giant wall-mounted fans hum against the sewing needles and piped-in music. The space is well lit, airy and pleasant, even in Savar’s premonsoon seasonal swelter.
Signage around the factory floors is in English first, not the local Bangla. Like other Bangladeshi factories, 4A Yarn Dyeing is used to the prying eyes of foreign inspectors.
The exterior of the factory is fronted by a cascade of hanging greenery. The rooftops hold solar panels that help power the operations.
In August, the factory fell under attack during the uprising that took down Ms. Hasina. Khandker Imam, a general manager, recalled with pride how his factory kept operating.
Mobs had gathered outside his factory, as they had at nearly every other; many of Bangladesh’s businesses fell under suspicion of having collaborated with Ms. Hasina. “One thousand people came, to attack our factory,” Mr. Imam said. He donned a helmet and joined his workers to hold back the crowd outside the gate.
In the end, no one was seriously injured, and not a single day of production was lost, Mr. Imam said. The company, like the country, has gotten used to surviving life-threatening disruptions.“The whole economy of this country depends on this sector,” said Mohammad Monower Hossain, the company’s head of sustainability. The people’s movement that overthrew Ms. Hasina understands this, too. As a country, he said, “we have only our labor.” US aid cuts push Bangladesh’s health sector to the edge (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/5/2025 11:03 PM, Sheikh Sabiha Alam, 62527K]
Bangladesh hoped to celebrate progress towards eradicating tuberculosis this year, having already slashed the numbers dying from the preventable and curable disease by tens of thousands each year.
Instead, it is reeling from a $48 million snap aid cut by US President Donald Trump’s government, which health workers say could rapidly unravel years of hard work and cause huge numbers of preventable deaths.
"Doctors told me I was infected with a serious kind of tuberculosis," labourer Mohammed Parvej, 35, told AFP from his hospital bed after he received life-saving treatment from medics funded by the US aid who identified his persistent hacking cough.
But full treatment for his multidrug-resistant tuberculosis requires more than a year of hospital care and a laborious treatment protocol -- and that faces a deeply uncertain future.
"Bangladesh is among the seven most TB-prevalent countries globally, and we aim to eradicate it by 2035," said Ayesha Akhter, deputy director of the formerly US-funded specialised TB Hospital treating Parvej in the capital Dhaka.
Bangladesh had made significant progress against the infectious bacteria, spread by spitting and sneezing, leaving people exhausted and sometimes coughing blood.
TB deaths dropped from more than 81,000 a year in 2010, down to 44,000 in 2023, according to the World Health Organization, in the country of some 170 million people.
Akhter said the South Asian nation had "been implementing a robust programme", supported by the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
"Then, one fine morning, USAID pulled out their assistance," she said.
More than 80 percent of humanitarian programmes funded by USAID worldwide have been scrapped.
Tariful Islam Khan said the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) had, with US funding, carried out mass screening "improving TB case detection, particularly among children" from 2020 to 2024.
"Thanks to the support of the American people... the project has screened 52 million individuals and diagnosed over 148,000 TB cases, including 18,000 children," he said.
Funding cuts threatened to stall the work.
"This work is critical not only for the health of millions of Bangladeshis, but also for global TB control efforts," he said.
Growing rates of infectious diseases in one nation have a knock-on impact in the region.
Cuts hit further than TB alone.
"USAID was everywhere in the health sector," said Nurjahan Begum, health adviser to the interim government -- which is facing a host of challenges after a mass uprising toppled the former regime last year.
US aid was key to funding vaccines combatting a host of other diseases, protecting 2.3 million children against diphtheria, measles, polio and tetanus.
"I am particularly worried about the immunisation programme," Begum said.
"If there is a disruption, the success we have achieved in immunisation will be jeapordised.".
Bangladeshi scientists have also developed a special feeding formula for starving children. That too has been stalled.
"We had just launched the programme," Begum said. "Many such initiatives have now halted".
US State Department official Audrey M. Happ said that Washington was "committed" to ensuring aid was "aligned with the interests of the United States, and that resources are used as effectively and efficiently as possible".
Bangladesh, whose economy and key garment industry are eyeing fearfully the end of the 90-day suspension of Trump’s punishing 37 percent tariffs, is looking for other supporters.
Some Arab nations had expressed interest in helping fill the gap in Muslim-majority Bangladesh.
China, as well as Turkey, may also step into Washington’s shoes, Begum said.
Jobs are gone too, with Dhaka’s Daily Star newspaper estimating that between 30,000 and 40,000 people were laid off after the United States halted funding.
Zinat Ara Afroze, fired along with 54 colleagues from Save the Children, said she worried for those she had dedicated her career to helping.
"I have seen how these projects have worked improving the life and livelihoods of underprivileged communities," she said, citing programmes ranging from food to health, environmental protection to democracy.
"A huge number of this population will be in immediate crisis.".
Those with the least have been hit the hardest.
Less dollars for aid means more sick and dead among the Rohingya refugees who fled civil war in their home in neighbouring Myanmar into Bangladesh since 2017.
Much of the US aid was delivered through the UN’s WHO and UNICEF children’s agency.
WHO official Salma Sultana said aid cuts ramped up risks of "uncontrolled outbreaks" of diseases including cholera in the squalid refugee camps.
Faria Selim, from UNICEF, said reduced health services would impact the youngest Rohingya the hardest, especially some 160,000 children under five.
Hepatitis C, with a prevalence rate of nearly a fifth, "is likely to increase in 2025", Selim said.
Masaki Watabe, who runs the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) in Bangladesh working to improve reproductive and maternal health, said it was "trying its best to continue".
Closed clinics and no pay for midwives meant the risk of babies and mothers dying had shot up.
"Reduced donor funding has led to... increasing the risk of preventable maternal and newborn deaths," he said. Bangladesh’s ex-premier Khaleda Zia returns, adding pressure for elections (AP)
AP [5/6/2025 4:10 AM, Julhas Alam, 456K]
Bangladesh’s ailing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia returned to the country from London on Tuesday after four months of medical treatment, adding to pressure for its interim leaders to hold elections.
The South Asian country has been under a government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus since former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted in a students-led mass uprising in August last year.
Zia, Hasina’s archrival, and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party have been pushing Yunus’ government to hold a national election in December to return the country to democratic rule.
Under Hasina, many opposition political parties including Zia’s BNP had either boycotted the polls or accused the authorities of rigging them. Many welcomed Hasina’s overthrow as a chance to return to democratic elections, but suspicion and uncertainty have surfaced in recent months about the new government’s commitment to hold elections soon. It has said the next election will be held in either December or by June next year, depending on the extent of reforms in various sectors.
Her elder son, Tarique Rahman, leads the party as acting chief from exile in London.
After Zia landed at 10:43 a.m., she was greeted by senior party leaders at Dhaka’s main airport. Zia, sitting in a wheelchair, smiled as she repeatedly raised her right hand to receive greetings.
Crowds gathered outside Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport to welcome the returning leader, amid tight security. Thousands of supporters, many carrying Bangladesh and BNP flags, waited along about a 9-kilometer stretch of road leading to her house in Dhaka’s upscale Gulshan area.
Accompanied by her two daughters-in-law, Zia arrived on a special air ambulance arranged by Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who also arranged her transport to London in January. Zia suffers from various serious health conditions and she has not attended any public gatherings.
Zia’s physical presence in the country has huge symbolic value for her party while Hasina is in exile in India.
Ahead of her arrival, BNP secretary-general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said Tuesday her return will help Bangladesh restore the democratic process.“This is a joyous moment for us and the nation. At this crucial time for democracy, her presence marks a significant day for the country. We believe that Khaleda Zia’s return will facilitate the path to democratic transition,” Fakhrul told reporters.
Zia and Hasina have alternately ruled the country as prime ministers since 1991 when the country returned to a democracy after the ouster of authoritarian President H.M. Ershad.
Zia served the country as prime minister three times, twice for full five-year terms and once for just a few months.
During Hasina’s 15 years in power, Zia was tried and jailed for 17 years in two corruption cases. Her party said the charges against Zia were politically motivated, an allegation Hasina’s government denied. Later, Zia was released from jail on condition that she not leave the country.
Zia is the widow of former military chief-turned-president Ziaur Rahman, who was assassinated in 1981. Hasina is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led Bangladesh’s independence struggle against Pakistan in 1971. Loyalists Cheer As Ex-PM Zia Returns Home To Bangladesh (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/6/2025 4:14 AM, Staff, 931K]
Bangladesh’s ex-prime minister Khaleda Zia, chair of the powerful Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), returned home to cheering crowds on Tuesday after months abroad for medical treatment.
Zia, 79, led the South Asian nation twice but was jailed for corruption in 2018 during the tenure of Sheikh Hasina, her successor and lifelong rival who barred her from travelling abroad for medical care.
The 79-year-old was released from house arrest after a student-led mass uprising ousted Hasina in August 2024.
She flew to Britain in January and returned on Tuesday, BNP spokesperson Shairul Kabir said.
Thousands of party activists welcomed her, gathering on either side of the road leading to the airport, carrying photographs of Zia and waving party flags and placards with welcome messages.
Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, 84, who has led an interim government since Hasina fled into exile as crowds stormed her palace, has said elections will be held as early as December, and by June 2026 at the latest.
"This is a significant day for the country and the people of Bangladesh," Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP’s secretary general, told reporters.
"The celebration we are witnessing is not only an outpouring of emotion but also a demonstration of our strength."
Zia’s rival Hasina remains in self-imposed exile in India and has defied an arrest warrant from Dhaka over charges of crimes against humanity. American climber dies while attempting to scale Nepal’s Mount Makalu (AP)
AP [5/6/2025 1:06 AM, Staff, 456K]
An American climber died while attempting to scale Mount Makalu in Nepal, officials said Tuesday.
Nepal’s Mountaineering Department identified the climber who died Sunday on the slopes of the world’s fifth tallest mountain as 39-year-old Alexander Pancoe.
The statement said the climber from Chicago was descending from Camp Three to Camp Two on the mountain when he suffered from cardiac arrest.
Attempts are being made to bring the body down from the mountain to the capital, Kathmandu.
Nepal’s mountaineering season began in March, and will run out by the end of May, when the monsoon season makes climbing difficult and dangerous. Hundreds of foreign climbers and local guides attempt to scale the high mountain peaks during the season. American climber dies on world’s fifth-highest peak in Nepal (Reuters)
Reuters [5/6/2025 1:40 AM, Gopal Sharma, 5.2M]
An American mountaineer died on Mount Makalu in eastern Nepal during a climb to raise funds for a children’s cancer programme, officials said on Tuesday, the second death in the Himalayan nation’s climbing season that began in March.The world’s fifth-highest mountain, Makalu’s peak is 8,463 m (28,000 ft) high, compared to Mount Everest, the tallest peak, at a height of 8,849 m (29,032 ft).
Alexander Pancoe, 39, died on Sunday while settling into his sleeping bag at the mountain’s second high camp, after returning from an acclimatisation trip at the higher camp three, expedition organiser Madison Mountaineering said.
"Alex suddenly became unresponsive," the company said on its website. "Despite hours of resuscitation efforts ... they were unable to revive him."
Nepal’s tourism department said it was arranging to bring the body to Kathmandu, the capital.
Pancoe, who survived a brain tumor when younger, had completed the Explorer’s Grand Slam - climbing the highest peaks on each of the seven continents and then skiing to both the North and South Poles.
He had been battling chronic myeloid leukemia and was attempting to climb Makalu to raise funds for the pediatric blood cancer programme of the Chicago-based Lurie Children’s Hospital, said expedition leader Garrett Madison.
He had already raised $1 million to help fund clinical trials and other programs there, Madison added.
In April, a Nepali sherpa died on Mount Annapurna, the world’s 10th highest mountain.
Wedged between India and China, landlocked Nepal is home to eight of the world’s 14 highest peaks, including Mount Everest, and its economy is heavily reliant on climbing, trekking, and tourism for foreign exchange. Sri Lanka’s President Seeks Reform Mandate From Local Elections (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/5/2025 9:00 PM, Anusha Attygalle and Asantha Sirimanne, 16228K]
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake swept to power last year with an unprecedented super-majority government. Now, he arguably faces an even more crucial election.
The island nation, which officially emerged from bankruptcy in 2024, votes on Tuesday for 339 municipal and rural council leaders — a test of the president’s popularity some eight months after his election win. The poll puts Sri Lanka’s entire grassroots administration up to a vote, and a victory for Dissanayake’s party would be critical in helping to fulfill his election pledge to root out corruption and improve standards of living.The outcome could shape Sri Lanka’s economy for years. Dissanayake’s leftist alliance has stuck with a $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout and focused its agenda on targeted programs, including raising salaries for government staff and school scholarships. A strong showing in Tuesday’s poll will ease the way for additional reforms — and ultimately pave the way for a higher credit rating that will loosen the tap of global lending markets.“We were aware that the country was in such a delicate situation that whatever changes we wanted to make also had to be done gradually, in a way that is not too disruptive,” Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya said in an interview in March. “The education reforms that we are working on, even the economic reforms have to be really gradual and incremental in a way.”Results of the local elections are expected to be declared Wednesday. Some 60% of council seats are filled using the first-past-the-post method and the remaining 40% are allocated proportionally based on party vote share. Some 17 million Sri Lankans are eligible to cast ballots.Several Sri Lankans, interviewed after the recent local New Year holidays, said they were willing to give the new government a chance. While food and fuel prices have stabilized in recent months, prices remain too high, they said.“I think this year New Year was a little better. Things have improved a little,” said C. Karunaratne, 59, a military veteran from Eheliyagoda, a town around 72 kilometers (44.7 miles) east of Colombo.He said he is looking at whether to send his son abroad to work due to the country’s economic troubles. Still, he expects Dissanayake’s party to win in his area. “It is not fair to criticize until they are given a chance to do what they came to do,” he said. “Maybe after 2.5 years we can take a look.”Dissanayake is already facing challenges, including criticism that his National People’s Power alliance — which had only three representatives in parliament under the previous government — is struggling to complete essential reforms. Key among them is a resolution for the loss-making national carrier Sri Lankan Airlines and steps to dilute the executive powers of the president and devolve to parliament via a new constitution.Sri Lankan authorities have been negotiating with US trade officials for a reduction in a proposed 44% “reciprocal” tariff. The government also needs to implement cost-recovery electricity pricing in order to complete a fourth IMF review and win access to its next tranche of funding.The Sri Lanka rupee has fallen about 2% this year, among the worst performers in Asia, while the nation’s benchmark Colombo All-Share Index has slipped 0.1% during that period.Observers will be closely watching the NPP’s performance in the northern and eastern parts of the country, historically restive regions that resoundingly rejected Sri Lanka’s former ruling parties last year. The Rajapaksa dynasty in particular — which has goverened on and off in recent decades — has come under fire for pushing the country into default, culminating in protesters briefly forcing former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.Civil society groups are critical of Dissanayake for not repealing two measures they say are repressive: the Prevention of Terrorism Act and the Online Safety Act. Opposition parties have criticized the government for not delivering on promises to renegotiate the IMF agreement to alter unpopular austerity measures.“The NPP came to power promising systemic transformation,” said Jehan Perera, executive director at the National Peace Council in Colombo, in an e-mailed report. But “there is a tussle between those who have been newly appointed by the NPP government to decision-making roles and those who have to follow their directions.” Sri Lanka Government Faces First Vote Test In Local Polls (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/6/2025 3:06 AM, Staff, 456K]
Sri Lanka’s leftist government faced its first electoral test with local polls on Tuesday since sweeping parliamentary and presidential votes last year, as the country emerged from economic meltdown.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake urged voters to return all 339 local council bodies to his ruling National People’s Party (NPP) coalition, which enjoys a sweeping two-thirds majority in parliament.
Dissanayake, who upset the more established political parties to win the September presidential election, built on his popularity to secure the parliamentary vote held two months later.
Since coming to power, Dissanayake, 56, has made a U-turn on his pledge to renegotiate the terms of an unpopular IMF bailout loan agreed by his predecessor, and has maintained high tariffs.
"We must understand the nature of the reality before us -- an economy that has collapsed to the bottom," Dissanayake said at his May Day rally in Colombo.
He said it was essential for his party to sweep the local councils so that all layers of the administration were "free of corruption and endemic waste".
He also urged trade unions not to agitate over "small issues", and to give his government more time to deliver on its promises of increased welfare.
Some 17.1 million people — the same number that voted in the two previous national elections — are eligible to vote on Tuesday to elect 8,287 councillors from 75,589 candidates.
The campaign has been lacklustre, with no high-profile figures in the running. Results are expected by midday on Wednesday. Central Asia
Macron Hosts Turkmenistan Leader In Rare Paris Talks (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/5/2025 4:31 PM, Valérie Leroux and Stuart Williams, 931K]
French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday hosted the de facto leader of Turkmenistan for rare talks at the Elysee Palace, with Paris showing interest in the vast gas reserves of the reclusive Central Asian state.
Known in Turkmenistan as "Arkadag" ("protector") and president since 2006, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov remains the number one in the ex-Soviet Caspian nation despite handing over the presidency to his son Serdar in 2022.The trip to Paris is a highly unusual visit abroad by Berdymukhamedov, who is the subject of a cult of personality at home and has penned numerous books including, most recently, one honouring his own achievements.
France and the EU are eyeing gas reserves in the region as Europe moves to end its reliance on Russian gas in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Turkmenistan, meanwhile, is seeking to shift more of its exports westwards and reduce its dependence on China as its main export partner.
The landlocked state has the fourth-largest gas reserves in the world but is vulnerable to fluctuations in Beijing’s economy.
How to deliver any gas to Europe from Turkmenistan, which has borders with Iran and Afghanistan, remains a logistical issue.
Berdymukhamedov hopes his visit will "give a powerful impetus to the development of bilateral cooperation" and "open a new page in the history of relations" between Ashgabat and Paris, according to the official Turkmenistan news agency.
Several agreements were signed at the Elysee but they did not mention cooperation on energy.
France’s Thales Alenia Space Group signed a framework agreement for the supply of a second telecommunications satellite to the former Soviet republic.
The two governments also agreed to cooperate in the field of sustainable urban development while concluding a roadmap for educational and academic cooperation and the extension of a joint archaeological mission in Turkmenistan.
Berdymukhamedov, who emphasises neutrality as the cornerstone of Turkmenistan’s foreign policy, last visited France in 2010, when Nicolas Sarkozy was president. He also met with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin in 2016.
Turkmenistan has no legal independent media and is one of the most closed-off states in the world, an authoritarian system that some rights groups have compared to North Korea.
Berdymukhamedov has also gained notoriety for unusual antics that are glorified at home on state TV that have included crooning songs, Rambo-style performances on the shooting range and zooming around racetracks in a sports car.
While he ceded the presidency to his son in 2022, Berdymukhamedov governs de facto alongside Serdar as chair of the country’s supreme constitutional authority.
Press freedom monitor Reporters Without Borders (RSF) ranks Turkmenistan 174 out of 180 countries on its press freedom index, saying that news coverage there "amounts only to praise for the regime". Officially, the nation recorded not a single case of Covid-19. World Bank offers prescription to address business ills in Caucasus & Central Asia (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [5/5/2025 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K]
Is it possible for a country to have too many entrepreneurs? Probably not. But according to a World Bank study of developing countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), having too many small businesses is not necessarily a good thing.
The bank’s survey, titled Accelerating Growth through Entrepreneurship, Technology Adoption, and Innovation, identifies Caucasus and Central Asian states as having problematic business environments, in terms of a country’s ability to move upward from middle-income to high-income status.“Business dynamism has slowed down, and resource reallocation has shown signs of weakness … because of slower progress on structural reforms and a more challenging global environment,” the report states. “If the middle-income countries in the [ECA] region are to achieve high-income status, their economies must become more dynamic.”
The report notes that Caucasus and Central Asian states, which are all in the ECA middle-income category, tend to have lots of businesses per capita, but they “generate fewer jobs than they do in countries elsewhere at the same income level.”
Georgia, for example, has about the same number of businesses per capita as does Finland, but the number of employees at firms in Georgia is about two-thirds as those in Finland. Both Georgia and Kyrgyzstan are cited as countries in the ECA area where “firms produce far fewer jobs per capita than expected.”“Employment density [for middle-income ECA states] falls below what might be expected for economies with many enterprises,” the report states. “The shortfall stems from insufficient expansion among firms … which prevents them from achieving the scale observed in higher-income countries.”
Medium and large enterprises (classified as those firms with 50-plus employees) are the main drivers of growth, the report states, and more are needed to provide mass employment for growing populations, especially in Central Asia. “Medium and large firms provide 40–50 percent of total employment [the middle-income ECA states] —far less than in Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States—economies in which about three out of four jobs are with medium or large enterprises,” the report notes.
Productivity is a major issue for firms in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The World Bank estimates that employees at small firms in the ECA area (classified as those with 10–49 workers) add only 30–80 percent of the value to finished goods as that generated by workers in Germany. A firm in Kyrgyzstan, according to bank’s report, “generates only about 10–40 percent of the value added by a worker at the average large firm in Germany.”
The bank identifies numerous obstacles hindering efforts by enterprises in the Caucasus and Central Asia to implement structural reforms needed to foster innovation and greater productivity, including a lack of access to credit markets and venture capital, stricter product regulation and inefficient management. “Middle-income countries in ECA invest less than middle-income countries elsewhere in the world,” the report states. “Gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP is consistently lower than in countries of similar income.”
The bank report recommends that the comparatively more dynamic economies in the Caucasus and Central Asia – Armenia, Georgia and Kazakhstan – place greater “emphasis on integrating global technology, expertise, and capital … while establishing the basis for promoting innovation by increasing private investments in R&D and more closely connecting public research investments with the needs of private firms.”
More broadly, the report calls for far-reaching reforms by middle-income ECA governments, including promoting competition and innovation via regulatory changes, lowering trade barriers to “deepen ties with the global economy,” expand access to financing, improve human capital and management capacity and facilitate the adopting of new technologies by businesses.“Beyond confirming concerns about the excessive number of small businesses in the region, this report highlights two important findings,” the report concludes. “First, ECA lacks large, superstar firms—exceptionally large and innovative companies operating at the global productivity frontier. Second, even the leading businesses in the region generate relatively few jobs and lag their counterparts in richer countries in terms of productivity and innovation.” After the Ukraine Mineral Deal, Is Central Asia Next? (The National Interest)
The National Interest [5/5/2025 7:53 PM, Mark Temnycky, 126906K]
Ending critical mineral dependence will require more than the recently announced deal with Ukraine.
After several months of negotiation, the United States and Ukraine finally signed a rare earth mineral deal. The agreement states that the United States will co-finance the development of "...minerals, hydrocarbons, and related infrastructure..." The deal does not call on Ukraine to reimburse the United States for aid it received during the Russian invasion, nor does it give the United States ownership of Ukrainian resources, subsoil, and infrastructure.
In addition, this new partnership will not hinder Ukraine’s aspirations of joining the European Union. Instead, the agreement established a joint investment fund, where profits from Ukrainian natural resources will be "fully invested in Ukraine." The United States and Ukraine will manage this fund jointly. Finally, the Ukrainian government made a great effort to ensure that the agreement would not merely exploit its resources.
Senior officials from both countries celebrated the completed deal. In an official statement, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said the minerals agreement provided "mutually beneficial conditions for both countries.".
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent stated that the newly signed mineral deal would form a "historic economic partnership" for the United States and Ukraine. Bessent added that the agreement signaled that America is "committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.".It is no secret that President Donald Trump wanted to ensure the completion of this deal. After taking office this January, President Trump has prioritized the widening of U.S. access to rare earth minerals and undercutting its dependence on China.
To date, China has maintained a monopoly on rare earths. Chinese mines account for roughly two-thirds of the world’s rare earth ores. The United States comes in a distant second place, accounting for 12 percent of global rare earth production. Given this vast difference, the United States is attempting to close the gap.
The Ukraine agreement is only a first step. According to the Ukrainian government, this Eastern European country has "deposits of 22 of the 50 minerals listed as critical by the U.S." Moreover, Ukraine can only boast an estimated 5 percent of the global reserves of rare earth elements.
As a result, the United States must explore additional options for its mineral portfolio. One such area could be Central Asia.
According to reports published by the Caspian Policy Center and the International Tax and Investment Center, Central Asia holds a significant portion of the world’s rare earth minerals. As the United States hopes to improve its access to rare earths, establishing closer ties with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan is crucial.
But there are challenges. The Chinese currently have access to the region, seeking to build their monopoly on these resources. In addition, China is at an advantage over the United States as the Chinese are geographical neighbors with the Central Asian states, which makes accessing these resources logistically easier. Furthermore, China already has a significant trade relationship with the Central Asian states, where it is a large consumer of Central Asian goods and services. Russia also has a strong economic and trade relationship with Central Asia.
Despite these points, the political dynamic is shifting. Over the past few years, Central Asian countries have sought to decrease their economic and energy reliance on China and Russia. Instead, senior officials from the Central Asian states have prioritized meeting with their counterparts from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
Establishing these relations will allow the Central Asian countries to diversify their economic and energy markets. In addition, reducing their dependency on a single entity will help them bolster their national, financial, and energy security.
The United States should take advantage of this growing relationship. In some cases, the groundwork is already there. In September 2023, President Joe Biden met with leaders from the Central Asian States to discuss growing relations between the United States and the region. During their discussions, the group highlighted the importance of critical minerals. The declaration stated that they could be used to help Central Asia bolster its energy security.
These discussions also forced the leaders of the Central Asian states to rethink the importance of rare earth minerals. Then, during the U.S.-Central Asia Trade Investment Framework Council in June 2024, representatives from the United States and Central Asia emphasized the need to "improve trade and integration." Like Ukraine, Central Asia has an opportunity to embrace greater investments from the United States and other Western countries.
American investment could help these countries improve their energy infrastructure and take care of other development needs. In addition, like Ukraine, profits from these rare earth minerals should also be used to invest in the region. The Central Asian states should not be exploited for their resources. Finally, access to these rare earths would empower the United States and its position in the race for rare earth minerals.
Accessing Central Asia’s vast supply of rare earth minerals will take considerable time and effort. The Chinese and Russians currently have an advantage, given their proximity well-established economic and energy relationships with Central Asia.
However, that does not mean the United States should pass up such an opportunity. As the Central Asian states look to diversify their markets and establish stronger relationships with the West, Washington should look for new opportunities to cooperate with Astana, Tashkent, and the other regional capitals.
Accessing the region’s rare earth minerals would lead to greater economic opportunities and enhance energy security for the Central Asian states. It may also give the United States the much-needed boost it needs in the race for rare earth minerals. Indo-Pacific
UN Security Council urges India-Pakistan talks on Kashmir, Islamabad says (Reuters)
Reuters [5/6/2025 3:48 AM, Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam and Shivam Patel, 5.2M]
The United Nations Security Council has urged India and Pakistan to ease tension and avoid military conflict, Pakistan said on Tuesday, as hostilities between the nuclear-armed rivals surge after a deadly attack on tourists in disputed Kashmir.
Council members were briefed on the situation in the region and told of intelligence indicating an "imminent threat" of action by India, the South Asian nation’s foreign ministry said, referring to the council’s meeting on Monday in New York.
"They called for dialogue and diplomacy to diffuse tension and avoid military confrontation ... and to peacefully resolve issues," the ministry said in a statement.
India’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the meeting, which had been sought by Islamabad.
The two sides have shored up defences as ties plummeted after the April 22 attack that targeted Hindu tourists, killing 26. India accused Pakistan of involvement, saying two of the three suspected attackers were Pakistani nationals.
Islamabad has denied the accusation but says it is fully prepared to defend itself in case of attack, prompting world powers to call for a calming of tension.
Pakistan has held two missile tests in three days and India unveiled plans for civil defence drills in several states on Tuesday, from sounding air raid sirens to evacuation plans.
Pakistan is currently a non-permanent member of the Security Council. India is not, but New Delhi has been in talks with council members ahead of Monday’s meeting.
An Indian source familiar with the discussion said many members expressed concern that Pakistan’s missile tests and nuclear rhetoric were "escalatory" factors.
"Pakistan’s efforts to internationalise the situation also failed," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "They were advised to sort out the issues bilaterally with India."
On Monday, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres emphasised the need to avoid a military confrontation that could "easily spin out of control", adding, "Now is the time for maximum restraint, and stepping back from the brink."
The rivals announced a slew of measures against each other after the violence, from suspending trade and a key water treaty to closing their airspace and reducing embassy staff.
Rating agency Moody’s has warned the standoff could weigh on Pakistan’s $350-billion economy, which is still recovering from an economic crisis that pushed it to the brink of default on external debt obligations in 2023.
Higher defence spending could also weigh on India’s fiscal strength and slow its fiscal consolidation, it added.
Kashmir has been at the heart of the hostility between India and Pakistan for decades, and India has previously also accused Pakistan of aiding Islamist separatists battling security forces in its part of the territory. Islamabad denies the accusation. UN Chief Urges ‘Maximum Restraint’ In India, Pakistan Standoff (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/5/2025 11:19 AM, Staff, 931K]
Nuclear-armed foes Pakistan and India must exert "maximum restraint" and step back from the brink of war, UN chief Antonio Guterres urged Monday, as tensions between the South Asian neighbors soared.
New Delhi has blamed Islamabad for backing a deadly attack on tourists on the Indian side of the disputed region of Kashmir last month, sparking a series of heated threats and diplomatic tit-for-tat measures.
On Monday the Pakistan military said it had conducted a second missile test since the standoff began.
Relations have reached "a boiling point," Guterres told reporters in New York, adding that they were at their "highest in years."
He again condemned the April 22 attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people, calling for those responsible to be brought to justice through "credible and lawful means."
"It is also essential -- especially at this critical hour -- to avoid a military confrontation that could easily spin out of control," the secretary-general warned.
"Now is the time for maximum restraint and stepping back from the brink."
Pakistan and India -- carved out of the subcontinent at the bloody end of British rule in 1947 -- have fought multiple wars and remain bitter foes.
International pressure has been piled on both New Delhi and Islamabad to de-escalate.
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack in Kashmir, where rebels have waged an insurgency since 1989.
Pakistan has denied any involvement and called for an independent probe.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military "full operational freedom" to respond and Islamabad has warned it will hit back against any aggression.
The UN Security Council was due to meet behind closed doors later Monday at Pakistan’s request over the crisis. Iran’s foreign minister urges restraint in India, Pakistan standoff (Reuters)
Reuters [5/5/2025 9:15 AM, Staff, 62527K]
Iran’s foreign minister urged India and Pakistan on Monday to exercise restraint as he arrived in Islamabad for a one-day visit, while the nuclear-armed rivals trade accusations over a deadly attack in disputed Kashmir.
India has accused Pakistan of involvement in last month’s attack on tourists, which Islamabad denies. It says it has "credible intelligence" that India intends to launch military action, fuelling prospects for war between the neighbours.
"We seek de-escalation and urge all parties to exercise restraint and avoid increasing tensions," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told reporters on arrival in Pakistan’s capital.
Pakistan did not explicitly say the standoff was behind the visit. Iranian ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam told state media the matter would be on the agenda, given Iran’s close ties with both nations.
Araqchi will also travel to Delhi on Thursday, Iran’s embassy in India said on X. It was not immediately clear if the visits were planned prior to the latest tension.
"The two sides will also exchange views on regional and global developments," Pakistan’s foreign office said in a statement flagging the meetings.
India’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. It has previously ruled out third-party mediation in matters related to Kashmir.
The Muslim-majority Himalayan region claimed by both India and Pakistan has been the focus of several wars and diplomatic stand-offs.
Since the attack, Islamabad has been in touch with a number of capitals regarding the situation, its foreign office said, most recently through a telephone call between Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.
"Lavrov expressed concern over the situation and stressed the importance of diplomacy to resolve issues," the foreign office said in a statement on Sunday, adding that he urged restraint on both sides, asking them to avoid escalation.
Islamabad has also asked its United Nations envoy to seek a meeting of the UN Security Council to brief the body on what it called India’s "aggressive actions" risking peace and security. Pakistan tests missile, India orders drills amid Kashmir standoff (Reuters)
Reuters [5/5/2025 12:15 PM, Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam and Charlotte Greenfield, 27248K]
Pakistan carried out a second missile test in three days on Monday and India said it ordered several states to conduct security drills, as fears mounted the neighbours could be heading to a confrontation over a deadly attack in Kashmir.
Moody’s warned that the standoff could set back Islamabad’s economic reforms as world powers called for calm.
Relations between the nuclear-armed states have nosedived since gunmen killed 26 people on April 22 in an attack targeting Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir, the worst such assault on civilians in India in nearly two decades.
India has accused Pakistan of involvement. Islamabad has denied the allegations but said it has intelligence that New Delhi intends to launch military action against it soon.
The countries have shut their land borders, suspended trade, and closed their airspace to each other’s airlines, and there have been exchanges of small arms fire across the frontier in Kashmir.
India’s interior ministry has asked several states to conduct mock security drills on May 7 to ensure civil preparedness, a government source told Reuters on Monday. They did not say which states or mention Pakistan or Kashmir.
The drills will include air raid warning sirens, evacuation plans and training people to respond in case of any attacks, added the source, who asked not to be named.
Earlier, the Pakistani army said it had tested a Fatah series surface-to-surface missile with a range of 120 km (75 miles), two days after a successful launch of the Abdali surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the successful test launch "made it clear that Pakistan’s defence is in strong hands".
Information Minister Attaullah Tarar told journalists there was no communication channel open with India at the moment.The Himalayan region of Kashmir lies at the heart of decades of hostility between Hindu-majority India and Islamist Pakistan, both of which claim it in full but rule it in part.
India has accused its neighbour of supporting Islamist separatists battling security forces in its part of the region. Pakistan says it only provides diplomatic and moral support for Kashmiris seeking self-determination.
ECONOMIC COST
Moody’s said the standoff could hurt Pakistan’s $350 billion economy, which is on a path to recovery after securing a $7 billion bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund last year and staving off a default threat.
"Sustained escalation in tensions with India would likely weigh on Pakistan’s growth and hamper the government’s ongoing fiscal consolidation, setting back Pakistan’s progress in achieving macroeconomic stability," Moody’s said.
"A persistent increase in tensions could also impair Pakistan’s access to external financing and pressure its foreign-exchange reserves," it added.
The report comes two days after Reuters reported that India has asked the IMF to review its loans to Pakistan.
India’s economy is not expected to see major disruptions since it has "minimal economic relations" with Pakistan - although higher defence spending could weigh on New Delhi’s fiscal strength and slow fiscal consolidation, Moody’s added.
Iran’s foreign minister, who earlier said his country was ready to help India and Pakistan "forge greater understanding" after the attack, was in Pakistan on Monday to meet leaders. He will visit India on Thursday.
Russia said on Monday it was following the situation with great concern and that it valued its ties with both countries.
President Vladimir Putin "strongly condemned" the Kashmir attack in a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and expressed full support to India in its "fight against terrorism", India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on X.
Pakistan said on Monday it will "formally apprise" the United Nations Security Council of the situation and call upon it "to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security by taking appropriate measures". Kashmir prepares for tourism ‘long lull’ as war cries ring loud (Reuters)
Reuters [5/5/2025 9:09 PM, Aftab Ahmed, Fayaz Bukhari, Asif Shahzad and Tariq Maqbool, 41523K]
Hotels and houseboats in Indian Kashmir are offering discounts of up to 70% after travellers fled following a deadly attack. On the Pakistani side, a tourist hotspot just on the border was sealed off as war cries between the foes grow louder.
Residents in the divided Himalayan region known for its snow-covered peaks, fast-running streams and majestic Mughal-era gardens rely heavily on tourism, but their livelihood has become one of the first victims of the latest hostilities between Pakistan and India.
The nuclear-armed neighbours have fought two wars over the disputed region, which they both claim in full while ruling in part, and skirmishes between troops stationed along the de facto border have made Kashmir the frontline of their discord.
But a sharp decline in militancy and a ceasefire that largely held for four years sparked a tourism boom, sending more than 3 million travellers to the Indian side of Kashmir last year while nearly 1.5 million vacationed on the Pakistan side.
The influx had been touted as a major success story for the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose revocation of Kashmir’s autonomous status in 2019 led to massive unrest.
Hotels, houseboats and taxis were nearly fully booked at the start of the peak summer season this year too, before the attack last month on tourists killed 26 men in a meadow.
India has blamed Pakistan for the attack and announced a series of diplomatic and economic steps against the neighbour. Pakistan has denied any role, unveiled tit-for-tat measures, and warned of an imminent military strike by India.
Yaseen Tuman, who runs a more than 100-year-old travel agency and operates multiple houseboats in Srinagar, the main city of Indian Kashmir, said that nearly all his customers had cancelled bookings and his houseboats were empty.
"Our houseboats were packed and now we have no guests," Tuman told Reuters, sitting on a wooden sofa in one of the houseboats on Nigeen Lake.
Indian travel booking websites show houseboats and hotels offering heavy discounts, but Tuman said he won’t cut rates because he did not expect tourists to come in big numbers anyway.
"We will have to prepare for a long lull.".‘GOING TO HURT BADLY’
On the other side in Pir Chinasi, located at an altitude of 9,500 feet, roadside restaurants, hotels and guesthouses were sparsely occupied after authorities advised caution, fearing an Indian strike, though it is not so close to the de facto border.
Neelum Valley, which lies on the border and is one of the most favoured tourist destinations in Pakistan, is out of bounds for now, authorities say.
All the nearly 370 hotels and guesthouses in the valley are now empty, said Abrar Ahmad Butt, spokesperson for the hotels and guesthouses association of the region. Tourists typically throng the place starting in May as temperatures soar in rest of the country.
"It’s going to hurt badly this season," he said.
Tourism employs around 16,000 people in the region.
For Syed Yasir Ali, who works at a foreign mission in Islamabad, not being able to go to Neelum Valley may have been a dampener but he felt no fear in visiting Pir Chinasi with his wife and three sons.
"This side is safe", he said, suggesting that others were wrongly fearful of visiting. "I am on the ground, it is safe.".
But the fear is having real economic consequences for a tuck shop run by Musaddiq Hussain.
"Business is completely down," he said. "We should have peace in the country, so that we could prosper. "We want both countries to have peace.".
In Srinagar, taxi driver Tanveer rues the lost opportunity.
"The streets were packed, there was no place to drive in the city before the horrific killing," he said, giving only one name. "I wait for a passenger all day. Before the attack, I had no time to take on more work.". Grief and fear permeate the picturesque Kashmir valleys that separate India and Pakistan (CNN)
CNN [5/5/2025 3:00 PM, Nic Robertson, 52868K]
Malik Khadim’s lips tremble, his voice chokes and his head dips as he raises a hand to his grief-stricken face. It’s a vain effort to stem the tears gushing down his gaunt and weatherbeaten cheeks.
Khadim is a farmer who lives on the Pakistani side of the de-facto border in the disputed Kashmir region known as the Line of Control, or LoC, between India and Pakistan. As so many civilians on both sides of this conflict have done, he is currently grieving the loss of a loved one. In this case, his brother.
Two weeks ago, gunmen stormed a mountain resort in the Indian controlled part of Kashmir killing 26 people, mostly Indian tourists. The killings sparked widespread public revulsion across India and this already heavily militarized remote border region has been on edge ever since.
The day after the April 22 massacre, Indian officials announced that two Pakistanis planning a terror attack had been shot dead near Khadim’s village on the Indian side of the LoC. That day, when Malik Farouk, Khadim’s brother, didn’t show up after taking out cattle the family reported him as missing, later identifying him from images of the two men released by Indian authorities, a Pakistani security source told CNN.
Both Khadim and Farouk’s son deny that allegation, saying that he was, like them, an impoverished farmer, chasing cattle who strayed toward the unmarked and unfenced LoC in the nearby forest.
In response to the tourist massacre, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to chase the "terrorists" to "the ends of the earth." India was quick to blame Pakistan, Pakistan denied involvement, and tensions have mounted since.
Both sides have expelled each other’s diplomats and civilians, as well as closed airspace to each other’s airlines. India has also withdrawn from the 1960 Indus Water Treaty that has tempered the tempestuous relations here for decades.
Officials on the Pakistani side of the border have said they expect India to attack and vow, as a matter of "military doctrine," to respond.
The current language in Islamabad is tougher than this reporter remembers when here covering the Kargil War of 1999. That high-altitude, monthslong border battle, just one of several wars and skirmishes over Kashmir, killed more than a thousand troops, according to the most conservative calculations, the year after Pakistan joined India in becoming a nuclear armed nation.
In the words of a senior Pakistani security official, now is "the moment" to change the dynamic in relations with India, as political relations with New Delhi have at times improved but military attitudes have toughened in recent decades.
Alongside skirmishes with India, Pakistan’s military also has fought – and still fights – an intense Islamist militant insurgency along the country’s western border. And the candid conversations that CNN has had with both senior and lower-level security officials suggested that Pakistan’s army is both mentally and militarily more hardened than before.
The military-facilitated trip that CNN took over the remote and rugged Himalayan mountains to Khadim’s village of Sarjiwar was both beautiful and terrifying.
Boulder-strewn tracks at altitudes of more than 10,000 feet threaded through snowfields, around fresh rock falls and through forests of the towering native Deodar cedar tree. At times, their giant trunks appeared to offer the only potential salvation from one wrong move and a plunge over terrifyingly precipitous drops into raging rivers below.
Just a few hours of this bone-jarring journey are enough to understand why neither Pakistan nor India have ever claimed a decisive victory here. It is just too rugged for an easy win.
Yet both nations want this region, to control all the water that torrents down from its snowcapped peaks. And, despite the challenging terrain, several million people split across the LoC call this disputed land home.
Life is hard here: Elderly women and children haul huge bundles of sticks off the vertiginous slopes; rudimentary farms elbow for room among the mighty Deodar; and meager villages cling to the hillsides where skinny water buffalo, a prized procession here, scavenge for grass.
By comparison, the village of Sarjiwar, which lies lower down the mountain and is populated with roughhewn wood and rock houses, has a sense of permanence. But living at the LoC has put its residents at the sharp end of the rising tensions. Khadim told CNN that Indian troops on front-line posts a few hundred meters from the villagers’ houses shoot at them at night.
Another villager told us that his extended family has taken to living in one house, adding that: "(the) elderly, children and women are incredibly scared we want to take our livestock to pasture but the Indians shoot… it’s our only livelihood… and we have nowhere else to go.".
No shots were fired over the two hours that this CNN team was in Sarjiwar, but both India and Pakistan have reported near daily exchanges of fire across the LoC since last month’s attack on tourists.
Khadim, who is 55 and was born in Sarjiwar, said the whole village is increasingly on edge, adding that residents want to take their few cattle to summer pastures – as they normally would at this time of year – but can’t because they fear being shot by Indian troops.
His biggest fear, however, is that his brother’s death is only a harbinger of a worse fate to come, and that he’ll lose not just beloved family members but his lifelong home and livelihood. "India’s done a great cruelty to us," he told CNN. "If they want me to leave, put a bullet in my head, that’s the only way I’ll go.".
India has long accused Pakistan of harbouring militant groups who have conducted attacks inside its territory and not doing enough to crack down on them. And there is significant public pressure on Prime Minister Modi to respond to the latest massacre with force.
After a major insurgent attack on paramilitary personnel inside Indian-administered Kashmir in 2019, Modi did just that with India conducting airstrikes inside Pakistan for the first time in decades and both sides fighting a brief dogfight in the skies above Kashmir. After frantic international diplomacy, a full-scale war was ultimately averted.
Civilians here fear that today’s war of words between Islamabad and New Delhi will soon erupt into real conflict. On both sides of Kashmir’s line of control, people feel powerless as their politicians rehash old arguments, potentially reigniting decades of smoldering resentment. Twitter
Afghanistan
Jahanzeb Wesa@Jahanzeb_Wesa
[5/5/2025 11:02 AM, 5.8K followers, 20 retweets, 30 likes]
The United Nations, as the highest authority on human rights, must not engage with the terrorist Taliban. No country in the world has the right to support a group with bloodstained hands,” says Maria Noori, a women’s rights activist and protester. #Afghanistan #Women
Jahanzeb Wesa@Jahanzeb_Wesa
[5/5/2025 8:02 AM, 5.8K followers, 21 retweets, 49 likes]
On #IDM2025, the #EU honours Afghan midwives. They save lives, reduce maternal/infant deaths & strengthen health systems. But Afghan women are banned from work, education & public life. Let them learn. Let them serve. Let them live. #LetAfghanGirlsLearn #WomenFreedom #UN
Hasina Jalal@HasinaJalal
[5/4/2025 1:58 PM, 12.3K followers, 7 retweets, 26 likes]
On this World Press Freedom Day, I honor the fearless women journalists of Afghanistan—especially those behind Zan Times, Rukhshana Media, Ravi Zan Media, and Nimrokh Media. These brave women, despite facing numerous challenges such as censorship and lack of access to on the ground information, surveillance and threats to sources inside Afghanistan, limited resources and institutional support, and lack of digital security established independent media outlets that amplify the voices of Afghan women and marginalised communities. In a country where women have been deliberately erased from public life and even the smallest expression of dissent is met with repression, these women journalists have turned journalism into a form of resistance. They refused silence, rejected erasure, and redefined courage in the heart of darkness.
UNICEF Afghanistan@UNICEFAfg
[5/6/2025 1:55 AM, 132.6K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
Flexible, thematic funds allow UNICEF to address needs when and where they arise. For residents of Sorobi district, this meant a new treatment plant to make their groundwater safe for drinking, cooking and bathing - 24 hours a day! https://www.unicef.org/afghanistan/stories/purifying-contaminated-water-lifeline-communities
UNICEF Afghanistan@UNICEFAfg
[5/5/2025 5:27 AM, 132.6K followers, 1 retweet, 7 likes]
Afghanistan’s 32,000 Community Health Workers offer their homes as hubs for health care and information. But these volunteers do more than treat minor illnesses. They also educate, like teaching parents to prepare simple, healthy meals - all using locally available ingredients! Pakistan
Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan@ForeignOfficePk
[5/6/2025 2:10 AM, 483.5K followers, 12 retweets, 24 likes]
At the request of Pakistan, closed consultations of UNSC were held under the agenda item “The India-Pakistan Question” to discuss the deteriorating regional security environment due to India’s provocative actions. During the meeting, Council members expressed deep concern over the growing risk of escalation, and urged restraint and de-escalation. Several members underscored that Jammu and Kashmir dispute remained the root cause of regional instability. Briefing the Council Pakistan categorically rejected India’s baseless allegations as a ploy to undermine the just struggle of the Kashmiri people for self-determination as well as to hide its own state terrorism and targeted assassinations in Pakistan and elsewhere. Pakistan welcomed calls by the UNSG and UNSC members for dialogue and de-escalation. “India-Pakistan Question,” is one of the oldest items on the agenda of the UN Security Council, under which the UN Security Council remains seized of the Jammu & Kashmir dispute.Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan@ForeignOfficePk
[5/5/2025 12:41 PM, 483.5K followers, 82 retweets, 435 likes]
The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50, held a telephone conversation today with the Foreign Affairs Adviser of Bangladesh, Md. Touhid Hossain. During the call, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister briefed the Adviser on the escalating regional tensions resulting from India’s unfounded allegations and unilateral measures, including its arbitrary decision to suspend provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty. The Foreign Affairs Adviser expressed concern regarding the current situation and stressed the importance of exercising restraint by all parties, emphasizing the need for de-escalation. Both sides reaffirmed their mutual commitment to further strengthening Pakistan-Bangladesh bilateral relations and emphasised the need for maintaining regular high-level engagements. They also discussed opportunities to enhance cooperation on regional and multilateral fora.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan@ForeignOfficePk
[5/5/2025 7:43 AM, 483.5K followers, 17 retweets, 30 likes]
Statement by the Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister of Pakistan Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 at 4th Annual Regional Dialogue 2025 by Institute of Regional Studies (IRS): “Pathways to Peace and Prosperity in Turbulent Times”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan@ForeignOfficePk
[5/5/2025 6:59 AM, 483.5K followers, 41 retweets, 147 likes]
FM of Iran Seyed Abbas Araghchi met with DPM/FM Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 in Islamabad. Both the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strong Pakistan-Iran ties & agreed to boost cooperation in trade, energy & connectivity. They also exchanged views on the evolving situation in South Asia and US-Iran talks while agreeing that complex issues could be resolved through diplomacy and negotiations. In this regard, they appreciated each others’ constructive diplomatic efforts which demonstrate their shared commitment to peace and stability in the region. They also agreed to maintain strong momentum in Pak-Iran relations including by maintaining an increased frequency of interaction at leadership level.
Sidhant Sibal@sidhant
[5/6/2025 2:19 AM, 347.1K followers, 37 retweets, 636 likes]
Pakistan in a statement says it briefed UNSC members on Indus water treaty, "intelligence indicating an imminent threat of kinetic action" even as it raked Kashmir
Sidhant Sibal@sidhant
[5/6/2025 2:58 AM, 347.1K followers, 15 retweets, 110 likes]
It is been 10 days, & while Pakistan said it will put Shimla Agreement in Abeyance, it has not done so far. No release or notification on Shimla pact from Pakistan. India on other hand, was quick to inform Pakistan that it has put the Indus water treaty in abeyance. Pak release: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqP1smtbAAAVHkd?format=jpg&name=small Hamid Mir@HamidMirPAK
[5/5/2025 1:23 PM, 8.6M followers, 18 retweets, 171 likes]
National Assembly of Pakistan passed a unanimous resolution today against all kinds of terrorism and any adventure from India. Govt and opposition gave a joint message that they are united to defend Pakistan and will give a teeth breaking response to India in case of any attack India
Narendra Modi@narendramodi
[5/5/2025 6:38 AM, 108M followers, 4.8K retweets, 33K likes]
Pained by the passing away of Padma Shri awardee, KV Rabiya Ji. Her pioneering work in improving literacy will always be remembered. Her courage and determination, particularly the manner in which she battled polio, was also very inspiring. My thoughts are with her family and admirers in this hour of grief.
Dr. S. Jaishankar@DrSJaishankar
[5/5/2025 2:29 AM, 3.4M followers, 22 retweets, 200 likes]
Pleased to launch the Global Access to Talent from India @GATI_Foundation in Delhi today. Spoke about how crucial it is to nurture, expand, deploy and upgrade talent. Also to identify the opportunities within and beyond our borders. There is a demand in the world, an availability in India and the basic groundwork done to enable Indian talent to gain global access. Wish #GATI all the best as it seeks to promote and facilitate this global access to talent from India. https://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/39466/EAMs_remarks_at_the_launch_of_Global_Access_to_Talent_from_India_New_Delhi_May_06_2025
Dr. S. Jaishankar@DrSJaishankar
[5/5/2025 2:43 AM, 3.4M followers, 253 retweets, 1.6K likes]
Pleased to join @swapan55 for an interaction with scholars of 4th Kautilya Fellows Program 2025. Spoke about IN’s rising capabilities and our deepening contribution to the world - as an economic player, a development partner, a talent hub and a first responder. And how the world’s perception of IN has evolved over the years.
António Guterres@antonioguterres
[5/5/2025 12:08 PM, 2.3M followers, 998 retweets, 3.4K likes]
Tensions between India and Pakistan are at their highest in years. I strongly condemn the awful terror attack in Pahalgam on 22 April. It is essential - especially at this critical hour - that India and Pakistan avoid a military confrontation that could easily spin out of control. Make no mistake: A military solution is no solution.
Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney
[5/5/2025 9:55 AM, 273.6K followers, 80 retweets, 347 likes]
In an overblown claim, @Reuters says the Indus Waters Treaty blocks reservoir flushing. In truth, the Treaty has no explicit prohibition on reservoir flushing or desilting. Neutral experts (as in the Baglihar case) generally sided with India’s right to manage sediment within certain bounds, but drawdown below dead storage was considered not permissible for routine operations. https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-starts-work-hydro-projects-after-suspending-treaty-with-pakistan-sources-2025-05-05/ NSB
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv
[5/5/2025 8:28 AM, 113.2K followers, 116 retweets, 109 likes]
Labour Minister, Government of Karnataka, Republic of India, pays a courtesy call on the President
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv
[5/5/2025 8:26 AM, 113.2K followers, 148 retweets, 146 likes]
Chairman of MBS Global Investments Co. LLC, pays a courtesy call on the President https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/33648
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives@MoFAmv
[5/6/2025 3:54 AM, 55.7K followers, 59 retweets, 72 likes]
New Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to the Republic of Maldives calls on Foreign Minister Dr. Khaleel Press Release | https://t.ly/wDd9m
Anura Kumara Dissanayake@anuradisanayake
[5/5/2025 10:05 AM, 150.8K followers, 11 retweets, 126 likes]
Following my discussions with President Luong Cuong of Vietnam, we signed one agreement and four MoUs today, marking a significant step in Sri Lanka-Vietnam relations! Excited for the future of our collaboration in customs, industry, agriculture, diplomacy and trade!
Namal Rajapaksa@RajapaksaNamal
[5/6/2025 1:58 AM, 436.1K followers, 7 retweets, 32 likes]
A 16 year old schoolgirl in Colombo tragically ended her life after allegedly being publicly humiliated at a private tuition class over a past incident. We are closely following the case and urge authorities to act swiftly regardless of any connections. No child should suffer like this. @Dr_HariniA
Namal Rajapaksa@RajapaksaNamal
[5/5/2025 6:25 AM, 436.1K followers, 8 likes]
Visited former MP and Deputy Minister Y. G. Pathmasiri, a dedicated public servant and long-standing member of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party. His decades of service to Sabaragamuwa and the nation remain deeply respected. Grateful for the opportunity to check on his well-being.
Harsha de Silva@HarshadeSilvaMP
[5/5/2025 11:20 AM, 361K followers, 36 retweets, 149 likes]
While the JVP violently protested against Free Trade Agreements and through their unions blocked every effort to reform the #SriLanka economy #Vietnam did the exact opposite. At least now Prez @anuradisanayake better understand how they destroyed our development potential.
Karu Jayasuriya@KaruOnline
[5/5/2025 9:41 AM, 53.8K followers, 2 likes]
Violating the law on the election silent period has become the norm, especially on social media, undermining its purpose. Authorities and platforms must uphold Sri Lanka’s election laws and protect the integrity of the vote. Central Asia
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[5/5/2025 1:03 PM, 216.5K followers, 2 retweets, 16 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev reviewed initiatives to develop skilled personnel and support overseas education. A unified training system will include targeted internships for civil servants, with incentives to aid admission to top global universities. Civil servants will receive advanced training and master’s degrees through international programs aligned with #OECD standards.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[5/5/2025 11:39 AM, 216.5K followers, 1 retweet, 8 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev held a meeting on modernizing agriculture in #Syrdarya region. Plans include tailoring crop cultivation to local soil and climate, repairing irrigation systems, establishing three major cattle-breeding complexes, and applying advanced cotton farming methods. It was emphasized to boost crop yields, create jobs, meet food demand, enhance processing, and expand exports.{End of Report} To subscribe to the SCA Morning Press Clips, please email SCA-PressOfficers@state.gov. Please do not reply directly to this email.