SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO: | SCA & Staff |
DATE: | Monday, May 12, 2025 6:30 AM ET |
Afghanistan
Taliban suspends chess over gambling concerns (BBC)
BBC [5/11/2025 10:49 AM, Thomas Mackintosh, 69.9M]
The Taliban government in Afghanistan has banned chess until further notice due to fears the game is a source of gambling.
Officials said the game has been prohibited indefinitely until its compatibility with Islamic law can be determined.
Chess is the latest sport to be restricted by the Taliban. Women are essentially barred from participating in sport at all.
Since seizing power in August 2021, the Taliban has steadily imposed laws and regulations that reflect its austere vision of Islamic law.
On Sunday, Atal Mashwani, the spokesman of the Taliban government’s sports directorate, said chess in Islamic sharia law is "considered a means of gambling".
"There are religious considerations regarding the sport of chess," he told AFP news agency.
"Until these considerations are addressed, the sport of chess is suspended in Afghanistan."
One cafe owner in Kabul, who has hosted informal chess competitions in recent years, said he would respect the decision but it would hurt his business.
"Young people don’t have a lot of activities these days, so many came here everyday," Azizullah Gulzada said.
"They would have a cup of tea and challenge their friends to a game of chess."
He also noted that chess is played in other Muslim-majority countries.
Last year, the authorities banned free fighting such as mixed martial arts (MMA) in professional competition, saying it was too "violent" and "problematic with respect to sharia".
"It was found that the sport is problematic with respect to Sharia and it has many aspects which are contradictory to the teachings of Islam," a Taliban spokesperson said last August.
MMA competitions were effectively outlawed in 2021 when the Taliban introduced legislation prohibiting "face-punching". Taliban Govt Suspends Chess In Afghanistan Over Gambling (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/11/2025 10:37 AM, Staff, 931K]
Taliban authorities have barred chess across Afghanistan until further notice over concerns it is a source of gambling, which is illegal under the government’s morality law, a sports official said on Sunday.
The Taliban government has steadily imposed laws and regulations that reflect its austere vision of Islamic law since seizing power in 2021.
"Chess in sharia (Islamic law) is considered a means of gambling," which is prohibited according to the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice law announced last year, sports directorate spokesperson Atal Mashwani told AFP.
"There are religious considerations regarding the sport of chess," he said.
"Until these considerations are addressed, the sport of chess is suspended in Afghanistan," he added.
Mashwani said the national chess federation had not held any official events for around two years and "had some issues on the leadership level".
Azizullah Gulzada owns a cafe in Kabul that has hosted informal chess competitions in recent years, but denied any gambling took place and noted chess was played in other Muslim-majority countries.
"Many other Islamic countries have players on an international level," he told AFP.
He said he would respect the suspension but that it would hurt his business and those who enjoyed the game.
"Young people don’t have a lot of activities these days, so many came here everyday," he told AFP.
"They would have a cup of tea and challenge their friends to a game of chess."
Afghanistan’s authorities have restricted other sports in recent years and women have been essentially barred from participating in sport altogether in the country.
Last year, the authorities banned free fighting such as mixed martial arts (MMA) in professional competition, saying it was too "violent" and "problematic with respect to sharia". Will President Trump protect the Christian Afghan refugees who fled here to escape martyrdom? (FOX News – opinion)
FOX News [5/11/2025 6:00 AM, Bryant Wright, 46189K]
President Trump is not shy about defending Christianity. His bold commitment to protecting Christians from persecution is one reason that most evangelicals have voted for him in three straight elections. While I am grateful for his strong stand for religious liberty, I’m concerned by his administration’s recent actions threatening Afghan Christians to self-deport "immediately" or face criminal prosecution, fines and deportation – to a Taliban regime likely to kill them for their faith in Jesus.
Recently, many Afghan Christians who were lawfully allowed to enter the United States, who have been living and working lawfully in communities throughout the United States, received letters with a stark message: "It is time for you to leave the United States." The message insists that the Department of Homeland Security "is terminating your parole," the legal mechanism that allows these individuals to be safely in the United States. "Do not attempt to remain in the United States – the federal government will find you… depart the United States immediately," the letter concludes.
Similar letters were apparently sent to hundreds of thousands of others who entered the U.S. lawfully in recent years. But no case is as troubling as Afghan Christians, for whom deportation would likely mean martyrdom. Persecuted church watchdog Open Doors classifies Afghanistan as among the ten most dangerous countries for Christians. The situation for Christians has deteriorated since the Biden administration’s calamitous 2021 withdrawal that left the Taliban in power.
Of course, President Trump himself surely did not draft this letter, and I suspect it was sent so broadly by leaders within the Department of Homeland Security without considering the full ramifications. As the administration hears from conservative evangelical leaders like Franklin Graham, I am praying President Trump will override whoever made the decision to send these letters and allow Afghan Christians to remain lawfully in the United States. At least long enough to submit and receive fair adjudication of asylum requests, or until Congress passes the Afghan Adjustment Act, a bill co-led in the last Congress by Senator Lindsey Graham, that would allow Afghans with parole to apply for permanent legal status so long as they clear stringent vetting processes.
President Trump is absolutely right, of course, to prioritize border security, and most evangelical Christians are thankful for the quick progress he has made to secure our borders. Likewise, almost all evangelical Christians are glad that immigrants convicted of violent crimes are being deported.
But evangelicals also agree with President Trump when he praises legal immigration of individuals who come "with love for the country." Afghans and others denied religious freedom abroad love this country profoundly – and certainly should not be expelled from it now. Likewise, evangelical Christians want the U.S. to keep its doors open to carefully vetted, lawfully admitted refugees, including Christians from countries like Afghanistan and Iran who faced persecution or even martyrdom in their repressive countries of origin. Last year, roughly 30,000 Christian refugees were resettled from the fifty countries where Open Doors US says that Christians face the most severe persecution in the world.
The Southern Baptist Convention (SBC), my denomination, has repeatedly reaffirmed the biblical call to welcome refugees, who are individuals lawfully admitted to the United States after fleeing a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons such as their religion, race or political opinion. Seven in ten evangelical Christians, including about two-thirds of those who voted for President Trump last November, tell Lifeway Research, the SBC’s research arm, that they believe the U.S. has a moral responsibility to receive refugees. As President Trump concludes a 90-day review of the refugee resettlement, nearly 20,000 Christians, including a number of prominent evangelical leaders, have affirmed a statement urging him to restart refugee resettlement, with a particular concern for those persecuted for their faith in Jesus.
Of course, as Christians, we affirm the dignity of all people as made in the image of God, not only fellow Christians, so we’re also concerned with the wellbeing of those at risk of persecution who are not Christians. But it turns out that most refugees resettled in recent years have indeed been Christians, as are roughly four out of five of those vulnerable to deportation right now.
I know that President Trump values legal immigration and is a champion for persecuted Christians. I hope and pray he’ll listen to the appeals of evangelical voters, override the actions of overzealous staffers and protect Afghans and others persecuted for their faith in Jesus. Pakistan
IMF frees $1 billion for Pakistan, approves new $1.4 billion program (Reuters)
Reuters [5/9/2025 5:24 AM, Ariba Shahid and Rodrigo Campos, 44838K]
The International Monetary Fund executive board approved on Friday a fresh $1.4 billion loan to Pakistan under its climate resilience fund and approved the first review of its $7 billion program, freeing about $1 billion in cash."Pakistan’s policy efforts under the (program) have already delivered significant progress in stabilizing the economy and rebuilding confidence, amidst a challenging global environment," the IMF said in a statement.The review approval brings disbursements to $2 billion within the $7 billion program. No fresh money from the resilience loan was made immediately available.India has asked the IMF for a broader review of its loans to Pakistan, as tension builds between the nuclear-armed neighbors. An April attack on Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir killed 26 and triggered the worst fighting between the countries in nearly three decades.At Friday’s IMF board meeting, India told the IMF that the Pakistan program raised concerns about the "possibility of misuse of debt-financing funds for state-sponsored cross-border terrorism."Pakistan’s Prime Minster Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement that "India’s attempts to sabotage the IMF program have failed."The staff-level agreement on both programs was reached before the current hostilities rose. Bomb targeting a vehicle carrying police killed 2 officers in northwest Pakistan (AP)
AP [5/11/2025 1:08 PM, Staff, 456K]
A powerful bomb exploded near a vehicle carrying police officers in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday, killing at least two officers and injuring three others, police said.
The attack happened near a roadside open market in Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a local police chief, Masood Khan, said.
He said the dead and wounded were transported to a nearby hospital.
No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion is likely to fall on the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, who often target security forces and civilians.
TTP is a separate group but a close ally of the Afghan Taliban, who seized power in neighboring Afghanistan in August 2021.
Many TTP leaders and fighters have found sanctuaries and have even been living openly in Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, which also emboldened the Pakistani Taliban. India
India Envoy Rejects US Calls for Mediation in Kashmir Issue (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/12/2025 3:04 AM, Ruchi Bhatia, 5.5M]
A top Indian envoy said the dispute over Kashmir is a bilateral issue with Pakistan, rejecting any external mediation on the matter despite the US saying it wanted to facilitate talks.“For us, Kashmir is a bilateral issue, not an international issue,” High Commissioner of India to Singapore, Shilpak Ambule, told Bloomberg TV’s Haslinda Amin on Monday. “For us, the word mediation does not work with the Kashmir issue.”
India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday after four days of clashes that brought the nuclear-armed neighbors close to a full-blown war. The US said it helped mediate the de-escalation, but India has maintained that the truce was a result of bilateral talks.
The ceasefire happened because Pakistan Director General Military Operations “got in touch” with his Indian counterpart, said Ambule, adding that New Delhi had achieved its objective of “destroying the terrorist camps.”
Pakistan’s army has said that India first requested de-escalation.For decades, India has rejected any outside mediation in Kashmir, an area of the Himalayas that both India and Pakistan claim in its entirety while governing separate part. New Delhi has said that the issue has to be resolved with Pakistan bilaterally, while Islamabad has historically sought international intervention.
On Sunday, US President Donald Trump on his social media platform Truth Social said he would work with both India and Pakistan to see if “a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir.”
In his interview, Ambule insisted that Kashmir talks are strictly between New Delhi and Islamabad. “Diplomacy does happen and we speak to our counterparts, but that is to clarify our position and what is our demand of Pakistan,” he said.
Even during his first term, Trump had attempted to intervene in the Kashmir issue, leading to a furious backlash in India.
When asked if India would hold talks with Pakistan in a neutral location — as the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed on Saturday the two sided had agreed to — Ambule said New Delhi “has never done that” as “terror and talks do not go together.”
Tensions between the two countries escalated sharply last week with drone and missile strikes on military sites. While there were reports of both sides violating the truce in the hours after it was called, the ceasefire appeared to be holding on Sunday.“The night remained largely peaceful across Jammu & Kashmir and other areas along the International Border,” Indian Army said in a statement on Monday. “No incidents have been reported, marking the first calm night in recent days.”
More Talks
Amid the uneasy truce, the military commanders in charge of operations from both sides are expected to hold talks on Monday.
In a statement Sunday, State Department said Rubio expressed US support for “direct dialogue” between the two South Asian nations.
Tensions first erupted on April 22, when gunmen killed 26 civilians — mainly tourists — in India’s Jammu and Kashmir region. India called the attack an act of terrorism and accused Pakistan of involvement, allegations Islamabad has denied. New Delhi also suspected a crucial water-sharing treaty between the two nations.
Two weeks after the attacks, on May 7, India struck nine targets — what it described as terrorist camps — inside Pakistan, the deepest breach of that country’s territory by India since the 1971 war.
Ambule said that despite the ceasefire, India will continue to keep the water-treaty suspended. “We need to end cross-border terrorism from Pakistan. Once that happens, we will see how we can look at the water treaty,” he said. India’s diplomatic ambitions tested as Trump pushes for deal on Kashmir (Reuters)
Reuters [5/11/2025 9:29 PM, Krishna N. Das and Charlotte Greenfield, 126906K]
India and Pakistan have stepped back from the brink of all-out war, with a nudge from the U.S., but New Delhi’s aspirations as a global diplomatic power now face a key test after President Donald Trump offered to mediate on the dispute over Kashmir, analysts said.
India’s rapid rise as the world’s fifth-largest economy has boosted its confidence and clout on the world stage, where it has played an important role in addressing regional crises such as Sri Lanka’s economic collapse and the Myanmar earthquake.
But the conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir, which flared up in recent days with exchanges of missiles drones and air strikes that killed at least 66 people, touches a sensitive nerve in Indian politics.
How India threads the diplomatic needle - courting favour with Trump over issues like trade while asserting its own interests in the Kashmir conflict - will depend in large part on domestic politics and could determine the future prospects for conflict in Kashmir.
"India ... is likely not keen on the broader talks (that the ceasefire) calls for. Upholding it will pose challenges," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington.
In a sign of just how fragile the truce remains, the two governments accused each other of serious violations late on Saturday.
The ceasefire, Kugelman noted, was "cobbled together hastily" when tensions were at their peak.
Trump said on Sunday that, following the ceasefire, "I am going to increase trade, substantially, with both of these great nations".
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for his part, has not commented publicly on the conflict since it began.
India considers Kashmir an integral part of its territory and not open for negotiation, least of all through a third-party mediator. India and Pakistan both rule the scenic Himalayan region in part, claim it in full, and have fought two wars and numerous other conflicts over what India says is a Pakistan-backed insurgency there. Pakistan denies it backs insurgency.
"By agreeing to abort under U.S. persuasion ... just three days of military operations, India is drawing international attention to the Kashmir dispute, not to Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism that triggered the crisis," said Brahma Chellaney, an Indian defence analyst.
For decades after the two countries separated in 1947, the West largely saw India and Pakistan through the same lens as the neighbours fought regularly over Kashmir. That changed in recent years, partly thanks to India’s economic rise while Pakistan languished with an economy less than one-10th India’s size.
But Trump’s proposal to work towards a solution to the Kashmir problem, along with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s declaration that India and Pakistan would start talks on their broader issues at a neutral site, has irked many Indians.
Pakistan has repeatedly thanked Trump for his offer on Kashmir, while India has not acknowledged any role played by a third party in the ceasefire, saying it was agreed by the two sides themselves.
Analysts and Indian opposition parties are already questioning whether New Delhi met its strategic objectives by launching missiles into Pakistan on Wednesday last week, which it said were in retaliation for an attack last month on tourists in Kashmir that killed 26 men. It blamed the attack on Pakistan - a charge that Islamabad denied.
By launching missiles deep into Pakistan, Modi showed a much higher appetite for risk than his predecessors. But the sudden ceasefire exposed him to rare criticism at home.
Swapan Dasgupta, a former lawmaker from Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, said the ceasefire had not gone down well in India partly because "Trump suddenly appeared out of nowhere and pronounced his verdict".
The main opposition Congress party got in on the act, demanding an explanation from the government on the "ceasefire announcements made from Washington, D.C.".
"Have we opened the doors to third-party mediation?" asked Congress spokesperson Jairam Ramesh.
And while the fighting has stopped, there remain a number of flashpoints in the relationship that will test India’s resolve and may tempt it to adopt a hard-line stance.
The top issue for Pakistan, diplomats and government officials there said, would be the Indus Waters Treaty, which India suspended last month but which is a vital source of water for many of Pakistan’s farms and hydropower plants.
"Pakistan would not have agreed (to a ceasefire) without U.S. guarantees of a broader dialogue," said Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a former foreign minister and currently chairman of the People’s Party of Pakistan, which supports the government.
Moeed Yusuf, former Pakistan National Security Advisor, said a broad agreement would be needed to break the cycle of brinksmanship over Kashmir.
"Because the underlying issues remain, and every six months, one year, two years, three years, something like this happens and then you are back at the brink of war in a nuclear environment," he said. Vance called Indian prime minister to encourage ceasefire talks after receiving alarming intelligence, sources say (CNN)
CNN [5/10/2025 1:57 PM, Alayna Treene, 31735K]
A core group of top US officials — including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and interim national security adviser Marco Rubio, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles — had been closely monitoring the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan when on Friday morning, the US received alarming intelligence, Trump administration officials told CNN. While they declined to describe the nature of the information, citing its sensitivity, they said it was critical in persuading the three officials that the US should increase its involvement.Vance himself would call Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.The vice president briefed President Donald Trump on the plan, then spoke with Modi at noon ET on Friday, making clear to the Indian prime minister that the White House believed there was a high probability for dramatic escalation as the conflict went into the weekend, the administration officials said. Vance encouraged Modi to have his country communicate with Pakistan directly and to consider options for de-escalation, the officials said. The behind-the-scenes details of the US involvement have not previously been reported.At that point, the officials said, the US believed the nuclear-armed neighbors were not talking, and it needed to get them back to the bargaining table. Vance also outlined to Modi a potential off-ramp that the US understood the Pakistanis would be amenable to, the officials said, though they did not offer details.Following the call, State Department officials, including Rubio, began working the phones with their counterparts in India and Pakistan through the night, the sources said.Rubio had been calling people in the region beginning Tuesday with a general idea of how to reach a ceasefire, but the administration left the finer details of the agreement for India and Pakistan to work out directly.“There was a lot of effort going on to try and tamp down escalation earlier in the week, and it was clear at that point that the two sides weren’t talking,” one of the officials familiar with Rubio’s calls to his counterparts said.“The goal earlier this week was to encourage India and Pakistan to talk with our counterparts and figure out a path to de-escalation through a ceasefire, and through the course of those conversations, US officials were able to gain insights into what those potential off-ramps look like for both sides, and be able to help relay that message and bridge some of that communications divide, which then allowed the two sides to actually talk and get to the point where we are now,” the source said.The Trump administration was not involved in helping draft the agreement, the administration officials said and viewed its role mostly as getting the two sides to talk. But from the US perspective, Vance’s call to Modi was a critical moment. Vance traveled to India and met with the prime minister last month, and Trump officials believed his relationship with Modi would help on the call, officials said.Vance’s call with Modi came just a day after the vice president said the conflict was “none of our business,” downplaying the potential for US influence.“What we can do is try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit, but we’re not going to get involved in the middle of war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it,” Vance told Fox News on Thursday.“You know, America can’t tell the Indians to lay down their arms. We can’t tell the Pakistanis to lay down their arms. And so, we’re going to continue to pursue this thing through diplomatic channels,” Vance said.The ceasefire was reached following a day of intense fighting Saturday. The Trump administration officials said precise details of how the ceasefire will be monitored are still being determined. Blasts were heard in India-administered Kashmir and over Pakistan-administered Kashmir hours after the ceasefire announcement.Trump announced the “full and immediate ceasefire” on social media Saturday morning, and Rubio minutes later posted, “I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.”State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said the ceasefire was a result of several conversations between Rubio and Vance over the past 48 hours between top officials in each country. “It was a beautiful partnership,” Bruce said Saturday on NewsNation, praising Vance and Rubio for “implementing the insight and vision of President Trump.”While Pakistan praised US involvement in the talks, India has downplayed it.“We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X about three hours after Trump announced the ceasefire.India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, did not mention US involvement when announcing the agreement, and an Indian statement said the deal was worked out “directly” between the two countries.It should not be surprising that these bitter rivals have given contradictory accounts of how the ceasefire was reached. In their long history of tensions, India and Pakistan have both viewed foreign intervention differently. India, which views itself as an ascendant superpower, has long been resistant to international mediation, whereas Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on foreign aid, tends to welcome it, analysts say. India claims its strikes inside Pakistan territory last week killed over 100 militants (AP)
AP [5/11/2025 10:28 PM, Munir Ahmed, Aijaz Hussain, and Sheikh Saaliq, 3531K]
India’s military strikes into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan earlier this week killed more than 100 militants including prominent leaders, the head of India’s military operations claimed Sunday.Lt. Gen. Rajiv Ghai, the director general of military operations, said India’s armed forces struck nine militant infrastructure and training facilities, including sites of the Lashkar-e-Taiba group that India blames for carrying out major militant strikes in India and the disputed region of Kashmir.“We achieved total surprise,” Ghai said at a news conference in New Delhi, adding Pakistan’s response was “erratic and rattled.”The two countries agreed to a truce a day earlier after talks to defuse their most serious military confrontation in decades. The two armies exchanged gunfire, artillery strikes, missiles and drones that killed dozens of people.As part of the ceasefire, the nuclear-armed neighbors agreed to immediately stop all military action on land, in the air and at sea. On Sunday, Pakistan’s military said it did not ask for ceasefire, as claimed by India, but rather it was India that had sought the ceasefire. At a televised news conference, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif said Pakistan’s armed forces targeted a total of 26 Indian military installations in response to India’s missile strikes which were launched before dawn Wednesday.He said the military had vowed it would respond to the Indian aggression, and it has fulfilled its commitment to the nation. Sharif warned that any threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty or territorial integrity would be met with a “comprehensive, retributive, and decisive” response.He said Pakistan exercised “maximum restraint” during the counterstrike, employing medium-range missiles and other munitions, and that no civilian areas were targeted inside India.Competing claims of how many killedThe escalation in violence began last week after a gun massacre of tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22. India blamed the attack on Pakistan, which denied any involvement.Ghai said at least 35 to 40 Pakistani soldiers were killed in clashes along the Line of Control, the de facto border that divides the disputed Kashmir region between India and Pakistan. Five Indian soldiers were also killed, he said.Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar on Thursday said his country’s armed forces had killed 40 to 50 Indian soldiers along the Line of Control.Following India’s Wednesday strikes, Pakistan sent drones multiple times in many locations in Kashmir and Indian cities that were neutralized, said Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, the operations head of the Indian air force. He said India responded with “significant and game-changing strikes” Saturday, hitting Pakistan’s air bases.Bharti refused to comment on Pakistani claims of shooting down five Indian fighter jets, but said “we are in a combat scenario and losses are a part of combat.” He claimed India also “downed (a) few planes” but did not offer any evidence.The Associated Press could not independently verify all the actions attributed to India or Pakistan.Saturday’s ceasefire was shaken just hours later by overnight fighting in disputed Kashmir, as each side accused each other of repeatedly violating the deal. Drones were also spotted Saturday night over Indian-controlled Kashmir and the western state of Gujarat, according to Indian officials.People on both sides of the Line of Control reported heavy exchanges of fire between Indian and Pakistani troops. The fighting subsided by Sunday morning.In the Poonch area of Indian-controlled Kashmir, people said the intense shelling from the past few days had traumatized them.“Most people ran as shells were being fired,” said college student Sosan Zehra, who returned home Sunday. “It was completely chaotic.”In Pakistan-controlled Kashmir’s Neelum Valley, which is 3 kilometers (2 miles) from the Line of Control, residents said there were exchanges of fire and heavy shelling after the ceasefire began.“We were happy about the announcement but, once again, the situation feels uncertain,” said Mohammad Zahid. Indian and Pakistan officials to speak MondayU.S. President Donald Trump was the first to post about the ceasefire deal, announcing it on his Truth Social platform. Indian and Pakistani officials confirmed the news shortly after.Pakistan has thanked the U.S., and especially Trump, several times for facilitating the ceasefire.India has not said anything about Trump or the U.S. since the deal was announced. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting on Sunday with top government and military officials.A U.N. spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, said on Sunday that Secretary General Antonio Guterres welcomed the deal as a positive step toward easing tensions. “He hopes the agreement will contribute to lasting peace and foster an environment conducive to addressing broader, longstanding issues between the two countries,” Dujarric said.India and Pakistan’s top military officials are scheduled to speak on Monday.India and Pakistan have fought daily since Wednesday along the rugged and mountainous Line of Control, which is marked by razor wire coils, watchtowers and bunkers that snake across foothills populated by villages, tangled bushes and forests.They have routinely blamed the other for starting the skirmishes, while insisting they themselves were only retaliating.Kashmir is split between the two countries and claimed by both in its entirety.They have fought two of their three wars over the region and their ties have been shaped by conflict, aggressive diplomacy and mutual suspicion, mostly due to their competing claims. Indian Defense Firm Says It Did Not Resell U.K. Technology to Russia (New York Times)
New York Times [5/11/2025 4:14 PM, Jane Bradley, 831K]
An Indian defense company says that it did not resell sensitive technology to Russia that was supplied by one of the biggest corporate donors to the populist Reform U.K. party.
The New York Times reported in March that, according to 2023 and 2024 shipping records, the British aerospace manufacturer H.R. Smith Group exported equipment to India that had been flagged as critical to Russian weapon systems. That included transmitters, cockpit equipment and antennas.
The Indian company, Hindustan Aeronautics, is the biggest trading partner of the Russian arms agency Rosoboronexport.
Hindustan Aeronautics did not respond to repeated requests for comment, but a lawyer for H.R. Smith recently provided The Times with a statement from Hindustan Aeronautics staying that the British equipment was not sold to Russia. The statement was dated a week after the Times article was published and received coverage in India.
That aligns with the account of H.R. Smith Group, which said that its sales were lawful and that the equipment was used in an Indian search-and-rescue network. The parts “support lifesaving operations” and are “not designed for military use,” said Nick Watson, a lawyer for the company.
In its statement, Hindustan Aeronautics said that the parts were used for helicopters operated in India.
Shipping records showed that, in some instances, within days of receiving the British equipment, it shipped parts to Russia with the same identifying product codes. Those codes relate to specific types of equipment, such as radar technology, but can cover a number of parts. H.R. Smith said that meant the codes could not be used to connect its parts to those sold by the Indian company.
H.R. Smith Group donated 100,000 pounds (just under $130,000) to Reform U.K. last year, two days after Nigel Farage was announced as the party’s leader. The company is run by Richard Smith, a businessman who owns 55 Tufton Street, a Westminster townhouse that is home to some of Britain’s most influential right-wing lobbying and research groups.
Britain and the United States have prohibited the sale of equipment to Rosoboronexport but India has not. Western companies are allowed to sell to Indian companies but have been urged to be diligent in ensuring that parts are not diverted to Russia.
Hindustan Aeronautics is identifiable in public records as a supplier to the Russian military but is not under financial sanctions, so British companies are allowed to sell to it.
Reached by phone in March, Mr. Farage said that he had “never approved of anything Putin has done,” but declined to comment on H.R. Smith’s sales. A party spokesman said the donation was lawful.“Such woeful attempts to smear Reform will not work,” the spokesman said. NSB
Bangladesh Bans the Political Party of Its Ousted Former Ruler (New York Times)
New York Times [5/11/2025 7:34 AM, Saif Hasnat, 633K]
The interim government of Bangladesh on Saturday announced that it would ban all activities of the Awami League, the political party of the country’s ousted leader Sheikh Hasina, under the country’s antiterrorism act until several legal cases against the party and its leaders have concluded.The government, led by the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, also amended a law to ensure that an entire party can be tried for certain crimes, not just individual members.Last summer, Ms. Hasina’s authoritarian government was toppled by a student protest movement. She fled to India, but the Awami League maintained a presence in Bangladesh.When Hasnat Abdullah, one of the leaders of last year’s uprising, was attacked last week, supporters of Ms. Hasina’s party were blamed. That prompted more student outrage and demands for tougher action against the Awami League.“Our ultimate goal is to see that the Awami League is banned,” Mr. Hasnat said during a protest on Saturday. “Even if I make no further announcements, don’t leave the streets until the Awami League is banned.”Hundreds of people, including students in wheelchairs or on crutches who had been injured during protests last year, joined the rally and demanded that the Awami League be banned. Other political parties, including the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolan, and members of Hefazat-e-Islam, a nonpolitical Islamic pressure group, also joined the demonstration.On Saturday evening, the law minister, Asif Nazrul, said the government would ban “all activities” of the Awami League under Bangladesh’s Anti-Terrorism Act “until the trials of the party and its leaders at the International Crimes Tribunal are completed.”The tribunal, despite its name, is a domestic court, and will eventually rule on accusations that Awami League members committed atrocities during the 2024 protests. The interim government says that the legal amendment was to ensure that a political party is not able to disown an individual member as a bad actor while continuing to back bad behavior.An inquiry commission formed by the interim government said in December that Ms. Hasina orchestrated mass disappearances during her 15 years in power.Separately, a United Nations fact-finding committee said in February that at least 1,400 people, including children, were killed by law enforcement and members of Ms. Hasina’s party during last year’s protests.In a Facebook post, the Awami League alluded to the unelected nature of the interim government in a comment on the amendment: “Decisions of an illegitimate government are also illegitimate themselves.”In 2024, student protests against a job reservation system grew into a huge uprising fueled by frustration and anger at Ms. Hasina’s rule. Tensions escalated after the death of a protester in mid-July, which led her administration to block the internet, impose curfews and order army, paramilitary and police forces to crack down on the protesters.Ms. Hasina fled Bangladesh on Aug. 5, narrowly escaping the thousands of protesters marching toward her residence. Three days later, Mr. Yunus took an oath as the new head of the government. Bangladesh bans activities of ousted PM Hasina’s party following protests (Reuters)
Reuters [5/11/2025 9:57 PM, Ruma Paul, 633K]
Bangladesh’s interim government has banned all activities of the Awami League, the political party of deposed former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, under the country’s Anti-Terrorism Act, citing national security concerns.The decision, announced late Saturday, follows days of street protests led by the student-driven National Citizen Party, which emerged from last year’s uprising that toppled Hasina.Several Islamist and right-wing parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami and other opposition groups, joined the demonstrations, demanding the Awami League be designated a terrorist organisation.The ban would remain in place until the trial of the party and its leadership over deaths of hundreds of protesters at the International Crimes Tribunal is completed, the government said in a statement.The government also announced an amendment to the ICT Act, allowing the tribunal to prosecute not only individuals but also political parties and organisations. The change clears the way for the Awami League to be tried as a collective entity for alleged crimes committed during its time in power.The Awami League, which was founded in 1949, dismissed the decision as illegitimate, posting on its official Facebook page: “All decisions of the illegal government are illegal.”The country has seen rising tensions and protests in recent months, after deadly protests forced Hasina to flee to India in August and an interim government led by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus took charge.Yunus pledged reforms and said the poll could be delayed until 2026.The unrest began in July with student protests against public sector job quotas, but quickly morphed into one of the deadliest periods of political violence since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971.In October, the government banned the Awami League’s student wing, Bangladesh Chhatra League, labeling it a “terrorist organisation” for its role in violent attacks on protesters. Passenger bus skids off a cliff in Sri Lanka, killing 21 people and injuring 35 (AP)
AP [5/11/2025 8:00 PM, Bharatha Mallawarachi, 1177K]
A passenger bus skidded off a cliff in Sri Lanka’s tea-growing hill country on Sunday, killing 21 people and injuring 35 others, a police spokesman said.
The accident occurred in the early hours of Sunday near the town of Kotmale, about 86 miles east of Colombo, the capital, in a mountainous area of central Sri Lanka, police said.
Police spokesman Buddhika Manathunga said 21 people died and another 35 were being treated in hospitals.
Local television showed the bus lying overturned at the bottom of a precipice while workers and others helped remove injured people from the rubble.
The driver was injured and among those admitted to the hospital for treatment. At the time of the accident, nearly 50 people were traveling on the bus.
Manathunga said police launched an investigation to ascertain whether the driver’s recklessness or a technical fault of the bus caused the accident.
The bus was operated by a state-run bus company, police said.
Deadly bus accidents are common in Sri Lanka, especially in the mountainous regions, often due to reckless driving and poorly maintained and narrow roads. Central Asia
Recollecting the benefits of shoe leather diplomacy in Turkmenistan (EurasiaNet – opinion)
EurasiaNet [5/9/2025 4:14 PM, Allan Mustard, 57.6K]
This essay is part of a series by American diplomats sharing their impressions of the dramatic early years of Central Asia’s independence from the Soviet Union. These memoirs were written at the invitation of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. We publish these with special thanks to Nargis Kassenova, director of Davis’s Program on Central Asia.
Early in my Foreign Service career, a supervisor at my first embassy posting informed me that that domestic travel was a waste of time because “you can learn everything you need to know about a country by sitting in the capital and reading the newspapers.” The post was Moscow, the Soviet capital, the center of a closed society and police state. Newspapers in the capital were all state-controlled and heavily censored, spouting Communist Party propaganda. Worse, the embassy’s security office discouraged contact with Soviet citizens due to the counterintelligence threat.
That first tour of duty was quite formative for my career because it taught me, first, that sitting in the embassy and reading the newspapers gave you only basic background—enough information to allow you to ask intelligent questions when you met with host country nationals. Asking dumb questions undermines your credibility, so knowing the basics was sine qua non. But it is only a prelude to face-to-face information collection.
Second, with near-native fluency in Russian and a background in Russian studies, I learned that I could collect better information on what was going on in society and the economy, especially in the agricultural sector (my beat in the embassy), than an officer with only the Foreign Service Institute’s 44-week crash course in Russian under her or his belt.
Third, it taught me how to do primary data collection: crop observation to estimate wheat yields, and monitoring food prices and relative food availability monthly in collective farm markets and state stores. I also grabbed conversations with whoever dared talk to me about market conditions (mainly experts at research institutes who eagerly accepted USDA publications in return for periodic sit-downs over tea and Krasnyy Oktyabr candy bars).
One might think that in the Internet Age these skillsets would have been superseded by the ability to collect vast amounts of data online. One would think wrong. In closed societies in which all media are controlled and censored by the government, in which dissent is not tolerated, online resources are inadequate. In many cases, normal online resources just do not exist.
On arrival in Turkmenistan in 2015 to take charge of the diplomatic mission, I asked two fundamental questions of the officers, local staff, and local contacts as I roamed the embassy to introduce myself: who really runs the country (the politics), and what is gross domestic product (the economy) in reality?
These were not idle questions. In 2015, the US government was still heavily engaged in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan’s southern neighbor, and preserving use of Turkmen airspace to evacuate wounded soldiers from that war zone was a major US priority. The reliability and stability of the Turkmen government were sources of concern, particularly given threats from ISIS-K across the border, so we needed to be able to give Washington assurance that there was nothing to worry about.
Turkmenistan’s relations with Afghanistan, Iran (another neighbor), and its old colonial master Russia were also of keen interest. And then there was China, the buyer of nearly all of Turkmenistan’s natural gas exports and promoter of the Belt and Road Initiative, which aimed to pull Central Asia closer to Beijing’s orbit; how the Turkmen viewed China was of interest in Washington.
Nearly every person I sat down with gave me a different answer to the question of who ran the country. A sampling: the country is really run by a cabal of elders of the Ahal Teke tribe, and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is president only by virtue of being the chief of that tribe; the country is really run by a troika of Russian Jewish holdovers from the Soviet era; the country is really run by President Berdimuhamedov, who rules with an iron fist; the country is really run by his five sisters, and he, as the little brother, obediently does as he is told; President Berdimuhamedov is a puppet of the Kremlin and follows Putin’s orders…the variants went on.
The economy was a particular conundrum. The national statistics office publishes annually a statistical handbook, but only in 500 copies, and it is neither posted online nor sold in bookstores. Statistics published in the state media were presented in the Soviet mode of percentages compared to the previous year — “GDP grew by 6.1 percent,” “production this year is 104 percent of last year’s.” No baseline figures were presented.
We began asking the Foreign Ministry for copies of the statistical annual and ultimately obtained them for a couple of years—we did not have a complete set, but at least we had something. Turkmenistan’s is a commodity-based economy, with exports of natural gas accounting for about 80 percent of export earnings. That was relatively easy to measure, since we knew who the customers were (China, and periodically Russia and Iran), and could divine export volumes and values from knowledge of the international gas market.
But how large was the domestic economy? The Turkmen claimed a GDP of well over $90 billion; officials also claimed that this figure had been confirmed by the International Monetary Fund (untrue; the IMF merely uses national data without verification). I found that figure unlikely given what I was observing on the ground.
We went to work collecting black-market exchange rates, prices of foodstuffs (just as I had in Moscow under the Soviets), and whatever data appeared in the press to get a sense of the size of the economy and the size of the population (a major question due to emigration in such volume that the government began pulling passengers off airplanes).
Prices of consumer durables did not matter, since they were virtually all imported and reflected world prices after applying a two-month lag to the black-market exchange rate. I drew on my crop observation skills to estimate wheat and cotton crops (which I pegged at about 40 percent to 50 percent of the published figures claimed by the Ministry of Agriculture).
A third question came up that grew out of my curiosity about the political hierarchy and size of the economy. Where was the president born, what is his hometown? In a village west of Ashgabat. Which village? Do not know. And when reference was made to events in cities, towns, and villages outside Ashgabat, the capital, where were they? Do not know. It is out in Lebap Province somewhere.
Turkmenistan from 1991 to 2015 introduced sweeping changes to toponyms—cities, towns, villages, even collective farms were renamed. Soviet, Russian, and Persian names were replaced with Turkmen names. Some changes were well known—Krasnovodsk became the city of Turkmenbashy, and Charjew became Turkmenabat. Others were more obscure. Just in Dashoguz Province, Leninsk became Akdepe, Kalinin became Boldumsaz, Telmansk (named by the Soviets in honor of the relatively obscure German communist Ernst Thälmann) became Gubadag.
Maps of Turkmenistan produced by the geodesic survey office (which I visited) were nearly useless, and detailed maps of Turkmenistan in the embassy’s possession dated to the early 1990s, before many name changes were recorded. In short, we were working in a country in which we did not know where things were.
My response was to harken back to the work of the Royal Geographic Society in the 19th century, when British explorers roamed Central Asia (some of them covertly, such as Alexander Burnes, who posed as a Persian-speaking Armenian horse trader). We had to get out and travel to collect the political, economic, and geographic data we lacked. We discovered the president’s father’s birthplace by roaming nearby villages and discovering a bust erected in his honor that stands in front of the Palace of Culture. By roaming one of Ashgabat’s six bookstores, I found two biographical pamphlets about the president’s father and grandfather nobody else in the embassy had bothered to look for, which provided extensive biographic data on the president and his family. We learned from one pamphlet that President Berdimuhamedov is the eldest of his parents’ children and is definitely not his sisters’ “little brother” as rumored.
We dug into the pasts of the so-called “Jewish Trinity” that allegedly were the powers behind the throne, determining that their influence was highly overrated. In discussions with Turkmen intellectuals, we explored the questions of Turkmen tribal and family dynamics—who rules the roost in a family, and how do traditional family relationships influence governance? One could not learn any of this by sitting in the embassy and reading the newspapers.
Having cut my teeth as an agricultural officer, getting out into the countryside was a natural impulse. We discovered highways and routes that had previously appeared on no map. The motor pool noted that it saw more of Turkmenistan supporting my travels than ever before.
As part of those travels, we collected over 800,000 street-level, geolocated, digital images of Turkmenistan that could then be used for mapping. We collected changed names and uploaded them to an online public “geoname change” database so that if somebody referred to “Engels Street” we could cross reference it to the current “Azady Street” and know where to go. This became personally important to me when the street I lived on changed from “Andizhan” (a city in Uzbekistan) to “Jelaletdin Rumy” (a 13th-century Persian poet, jurist, and Islamic scholar) and we had to give people directions to our house for receptions.
I not only uploaded all geodata we collected to OpenStreetMap (which powers multiple smartphone navigation apps and can also be downloaded to GPS navigators), I gave master classes in how to edit that “map of the world that anybody can use” with the result that to this day local Turkmen continue to add data to the map.
By the time I departed Turkmenistan in 2019, we had a sense of who was really running the country and how large the economy really was. Further, we had geolocated all cities, all but four towns, and about a third of the villages (most of them former Soviet-era collective farms). We had mapped the downtowns of major cities well enough that navigating in them was no longer a matter of trial-and-error, which liberated my officers to explore the country on their own and thus learn ever more about a fascinating but rather secretive, closed country.
Not only American but also third-country diplomats no longer feared driving to distant cities (including destinations in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, less so Iran and Afghanistan) out of concern for getting lost in countries that generally lack road signs and detailed maps. The boost to embassy morale was palpable.
One crowning touch was a conversation with the Turkmen director general for motor roads, who confessed that he used OpenStreetMap data on his smartphone to navigate, and another was a request from the Ministry of National Security for a digital copy of the printed wall maps of Ashgabat we produced.None of this was magic. It was old-fashioned shoe leather work, a throwback to the 19th century, the diplomacy of getting out of the embassy, talking to people, exploring, asking questions, taking notes, and building relationships. Very little of it came out of the newspapers available in the capital. Block Central Asia’s Financial Pipelines to the Sino-Russian Military Axis (Town Hall – opinion)
Town Hall [5/11/2025 12:01 AM, Janusz Bugajski, 1270K]
As the U.S. trade dispute with China escalates, Beijing’s involvement in the war against Ukraine and its military collaboration with Russia have been expanding. China does not want Russia to lose: North Korean involvement in the Ukraine war is unlikely without China’s blessing. Ukrainian authorities have claimed that several hundred Chinese nationals are fighting on the Russian side. Moreover, China supplies chemicals for Russian missiles, dual-use goods, and military drones. Beijing is using a clandestine network of shell companies to help funnel arms into Russia and bypass international sanctions. And as China’s invasion of Taiwan, with Moscow’s assistance, could happen as early as 2027, a more effective approach to undermine the Sino-Russian alliance should be an American priority. Breaking the Central Asian "bridge" of supplies and financial transactions is therefore crucial.
Central Asia, once on the periphery of Western priorities, is playing an increasingly important role in the escalating confrontation between the major powers. Moscow has used Central Asia to evade international sanctions for its war against Ukraine. Additionally, both China and Russia are manipulating some of the poorer countries in the region to clandestinely finance their growing military cooperation that facilitates Russia’s war.
In this equation, the small landlocked country of Kyrgyzstan and its banks play a notable role in the expanding China-Russia military-industrial axis. Located between America’s two main geopolitical rivals, it is well-positioned to facilitate their cooperation and evade Western sanctions. In January 2025, the US Treasury sanctioned Keremet, a Kyrgyz bank with links to the pro-Russian Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who himself has been sanctioned for an alleged plot to overthrow the pro-Western government in Moldova. However, Washington needs to ensure that no new financial institutions promote the anti-Western axis, including the Capital Bank of Central Asia, which was designated to replace Keremet.
Kyrgyzstan has nationalized the Capital Bank of Central Asia and appointed it to handle transactions with Russia to replace Keremet bank, which was sanctioned by the U.S. in January 2025 for operating in the "defense and related materiel and financial services sectors of the Russian Federation economy."Capital Bank is now supervised by former Keremet board members who took over its assets and includes a partnership with A7, a Russian payment platform set up to replace the SWIFT payment system. It reportedly finances military and dual-use goods and is co-owned by the main Russian defense sector bank, Promsvyazbank (recently renamed as PSB),together with Shor, a Moldovan oligarch and majority shareholder in A7. The A7 Platform was established in October 2024 to facilitate international trade settlements for Russian companies and provides a workaround for cross-border payments to avoid sanctions. PSB transfers funds in rubles via the A7 payment platform into accounts at the Capital Bank of Central Asia, where they are converted into foreign currencies, including dollars and yuan. The money then flows through shell companies to purchase weapons from Chinese firms. The funds could also be used to support the pro-Moscow political campaign to destabilize Moldova.
On March 17, 2025, the Capital Bank of Central Asia was designated the "exclusive settlement bank" for transactions in Russian rubles. In effect, nearly all cross-border money transfers between between Kyrgyzstan and Russia are now conducted through a single bank.
Such moves should draw the scrutiny of the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), leading to sanctions against Capital Bank. Washington has already targeted several banks in third countries for helping Russia circumvent sanctions. The sanctions against Keremet, which served as a channel for Russia-linked payments, took effect on March 1, 2025.According to the U.S. Treasury, Keremet’s officials coordinated with Russian officials and Promsvyazbank (PSB), a major Russian state-owned defense industry bank, to "enable cross-border transfers."PSB, often described as Russia’s "main military bank," was designated by OFAC in 2022 for supporting Russia’s defense sector.
Analysts speculate that with Keremet effectively sidelined by sanctions, Capital Bank’s new role could make it a successor conduit for the same type of Russia-related transactions. Adding to these concerns, investigative reports highlight several controversial figures and entities connected to Capital Bank’s sphere of activity, including individuals and companies already under international sanctions for their role in various illicit networks. Prominent among them is Shor – a politician and businessman sanctioned by the EU and Canada for corruption and pro-Russian interference and designated by the U.S. as working with Moscow Shor, who is currently a fugitive, was implicated by the U.S. Treasury for involvement in discussions about using Kyrgyz banks to to subvert democracy in Moldova. He was engaged in money laundering and embezzlement related to the 2014 theft of $1 billion from Moldovan banks. evade sanctions. By focusing on the Capital Bank of Central Asia, Washington can more effectively combat the extensive web of international sanctions evasion, money laundering, and financing of the Sino-Russian military axis. Indo-Pacific
Reluctant at First, Trump Officials Intervened in South Asia as Nuclear Fears Grew (New York Times)
New York Times [5/10/2025 4:14 PM, David E. SangerJulian E. Barnes and Maggie Haberman, 831K]
As a conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Thursday that it was “fundamentally none of our business.” The United States could counsel both sides to back away, he suggested, but this was not America’s fight.
Yet within 24 hours, Mr. Vance and Marco Rubio, in his first week in the dual role of national security adviser and secretary of state, found themselves plunged into the details. The reason was the same one that prompted Bill Clinton in 1999 to deal with another major conflict between the two longtime enemies: fear that it might quickly go nuclear.
What drove Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio into action was evidence that the Pakistani and Indian Air Forces had begun to engage in serious dogfights, and that Pakistan had sent 300 to 400 drones into Indian territory to probe its air defenses. But the most significant causes for concern came late Friday, when explosions hit the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, the garrison city adjacent to Islamabad.
The base is a key installation, one of the central transport hubs for Pakistan’s military and the home to the air refueling capability that would keep Pakistani fighters aloft. But it is also just a short distance from the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, which oversees and protects the country’s nuclear arsenal, now believed to include about 170 or more warheads. The warheads themselves are presumed to be spread around the country.
The intense fighting broke out between India and Pakistan after 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, were killed in a terrorist attack on April 22 in Kashmir, a border region claimed by both nations. On Saturday morning, President Trump announced that the two countries had agreed to a cease-fire.
One former American official long familiar with Pakistan’s nuclear program noted on Saturday that Pakistan’s deepest fear is of its nuclear command authority being decapitated. The missile strike on Nur Khan could have been interpreted, the former official said, as a warning that India could do just that.
It is unclear whether there was American intelligence pointing to a rapid, and perhaps nuclear, escalation of the conflict. At least in public, the only piece of obvious nuclear signaling came from Pakistan. Local media reported that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had summoned a meeting of the National Command Authority — the small group that makes decisions about how and when to make use of nuclear weapons.
Established in 2000, the body is nominally chaired by the prime minister and includes senior civilian ministers and military chiefs. In reality, the driving force behind the group is the army chief, Gen. Syed Asim Munir.
But Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, denied that the group ever met. Speaking on Pakistani television on Saturday before the cease-fire was announced, he acknowledged the existence of the nuclear option but said, “We should treat it as a very distant possibility; we shouldn’t even discuss it.”
It was being discussed at the Pentagon, and by Friday morning, the White House had clearly made the determination that a few public statements and some calls to officials in Islamabad and Delhi were not sufficient. Interventions by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had little effect.
During his interview with Fox News, Mr. Vance had also said that “we’re concerned about any time nuclear powers collide and have a major conflict.” He added that “what we can do is encourage these folks to deescalate a little bit.”
According to one person familiar with the unfolding events who was not authorized to speak publicly about them, serious concerns developed in the administration after that interview that the conflict was at risk of spiraling out of control.
The pace of strikes and counterstrikes was picking up. While India had initially focused on what it called “known terror camps” linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant group blamed for the April attack, it was now targeting Pakistani military bases.
The Trump administration was also concerned that messages to de-escalate were not reaching top officials on either side.
So U.S. officials decided that Mr. Vance, who had returned a couple weeks earlier from a trip to India with his wife, Usha, whose parents are Indian immigrants, should call Prime Minister Narendra Modi directly. His message was that the United States had assessed there was a high probability of a dramatic escalation of violence that could tip into full-scale war.
By the American account, Mr. Vance pressed Mr. Modi to consider alternatives to continued strikes, including a potential off-ramp that U.S. officials thought would prove acceptable to the Pakistanis. Mr. Modi listened but did not commit to any of the ideas.
Mr. Rubio, according to the State Department, talked with General Munir, a conversation made easier by his new role as national security adviser. Over the past quarter-century, the White House has often served, if quietly, as a direct channel to the Pakistani army, the country’s most powerful institution.
Mr. Rubio also called Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, and India’s nationalistic external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, whom he had met on Jan. 22 in Washington.
It is not clear how persuasive he was, at least initially.
The State Department did not hold a press briefing on Saturday about the content of those calls, instead issuing bare-bones descriptions of the conversations that gave no sense of the dynamic between Mr. Rubio and the South Asian leaders. But the constant stream of calls from Friday evening into early Saturday appeared to lay a foundation for the cease-fire.
A senior Pakistani intelligence official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the negotiations credited the involvement of the Americans over the last 48 hours, and in particular Mr. Rubio’s intervention, for sealing the accord. But as of Saturday night, there were reports that cross-border firing was continuing.
Mr. Sharif, the prime minister, made a point of focusing on the American president’s role. “We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region,” he wrote on X. “Pakistan appreciates the United States for facilitating this outcome, which we have accepted in the interest of regional peace and stability.”
India, in contrast, did not acknowledge any U.S. involvement.
It is far from clear that the cease-fire will hold, or that the damage done may not trigger more retribution. Pakistan brought down five Indian planes, by some accounts. (The Indian side has not commented on its losses.)
Pakistani intelligence, the senior official said, assessed that India was trying to bait Islamabad into going beyond a defensive response. India wanted Pakistan to use its own F-16 fighter jets in a retaliatory attack so they could try to shoot one down, the official said. The jets were sold by the United States because Pakistan is still officially considered a “major non-NATO ally,” a status President George W. Bush bestowed on the country in the months after the Sept. 11 attacks.
The senior Pakistani intelligence officer said the American intervention was needed to pull the two sides back from the brink of war.“The last move came from the president,” the official said. India and Pakistan Announce Cease-Fire but Clashes Persist (New York Times)
New York Times [5/11/2025 10:29 AM, Anupreeta Das, Mujib Mashal, and Salman Masood, 10355K]
India and Pakistan abruptly declared a cease-fire on Saturday after four days of rapidly escalating drone volleys, shelling and airstrikes that appeared to bring the old enemies to the brink of outright war. Hours later, each country accused the other of violating the deal.The agreement and subsequent reports of cross-border firing came after four dizzying days of strikes by the nuclear-armed rivals that went deep into each other’s territories, and intense shelling on either side of India and Pakistan’s disputed Kashmir border that left many civilians dead, wounded or displaced. Adding to the bewilderment many people felt at the breakneck pace of events, the truce was initially announced not by India or Pakistan but by President Trump on social media.And it was not clear, as night fell on Saturday, that the cease-fire would take hold in Kashmir, where a terrorist attack last month on the Indian-controlled side killed 26 people and set off the crisis. Cross-border firing was reported in both the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of the region, and India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, told a news conference that there had been “repeated violations” of the agreement.He accused Pakistan of breaching the agreement and said India would “deal strongly” with the violations and respond.A spokesman for Pakistan’s foreign ministry later said the country was “committed” to implementing the cease-fire and that its troops were acting responsibly, “notwithstanding the violations being committed by India in some areas.”He added that issues on the ground should be resolved “through communication at appropriate levels.”Mr. Trump said earlier on Saturday that the agreement had been mediated by the United States, and Indian and Pakistani leaders soon confirmed a cease-fire, though only Pakistan quickly acknowledged an American role.That the United States helped mediate talks itself appeared to be a remarkable turnaround for the Trump administration. This week, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that while the United States could encourage the two sides to de-escalate, “we’re not going to get involved in the middle of a war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it.”But on Saturday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that he and Mr. Vance had engaged with senior officials from both Pakistan and India, including their prime ministers, over 48 hours. In addition to the cease-fire, India and Pakistan also agreed to “start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site,” Mr. Rubio said.Indian officials, in contrast, said that the agreement had been worked out directly between India and Pakistan, without mentioning the United States. They also said there had been no decision to hold talks on any other issue at any location.Those issues could include anything from diplomatic relations to airspace to a water-sharing treaty that is critical to Pakistan’s agriculture — all of which were upended after the terrorist attack last month.In a sign of easing tensions, Pakistan on Saturday afternoon reopened its airspace for all flights, but there was no indication on Saturday night that Pakistan or India might repair diplomatic relations or ease visa restrictions to each other’s citizens, or that India might restore compliance in the water treaty.The relief that many people felt in Kashmir after the truce announcement was short-lived, as reports of shelling and drones began for yet another night.Rivals for decades, India and Pakistan have fought repeated wars and long accused each other of wrongdoing abroad and fomenting problems at home. But this conflict has stunned many in both countries in the ways it ratcheted up so quickly.After the terrorist attack in Kashmir, India accused Pakistan of harboring the terrorist groups responsible, which Pakistan denied. Then, on Wednesday, India struck sites in Pakistan that it labeled “terrorist infrastructure” — leading Pakistan to promise a response against a violation of its sovereignty.What followed was a series of attacks using missiles, drones and artillery that both countries described as retaliation. Each day, officials would maintain that they did not want war and were satisfied with their forces’ results. Each night, volleys would strike farther into India and Pakistan and Kashmir residents would describe blackouts, heavy shelling and drones and missiles flying overhead.In India’s Wednesday attack, Pakistan claimed it had downed five Indian fighter jets, losses that India would not confirm.On Thursday, India said it had thwarted a Pakistani drone and missile attack on more than a dozen Indian cities, and said it had hit Pakistani air-defense systems. Pakistan said it had shot down 25 Indian drones that entered its airspace.On Friday, Indian officials said Pakistan’s military had sent 300 to 400 drones to test India’s air defenses in dozens of places.By Saturday morning, before the cease-fire announcement, things looked even more dire.Pakistan said India had targeted three of its air bases with missiles, including a key air force installation near the capital. Witnesses reported hearing at least three loud explosions, with one describing a “large fireball” visible from miles away.Within hours, the Pakistani military said it had retaliated against several Indian military sites, calling its response “an eye for an eye.”Vyomika Singh, an Indian Air Force officer, said at a news conference on Saturday said there was little damage to the country’s bases, and that India’s attack was itself a response to a Pakistani barrage of drones and fighter planes.Seth Krummrich, a military analyst and former U.S. Army colonel, said this fighting had been the “most violent and concerning escalation” he could recall in the longstanding conflict between the two nations.But Mr. Krummrich, now a senior executive at the private security firm Global Guardian, also said that the focus mostly on military targets and “parity in the types, levels and locations of attacks reflects that both sides are deliberately calibrating their responses,” made him cautiously optimistic. Neither side, he said, was “going for a strategic escalatory ‘kill shot.’”Heightening the sense that the enemies have entered a new, more unpredictable era, drones have entered the fray en masse and disinformation has swirled online, in group chats and on television.The mix of rumors, conflicting claims, falsehoods and obfuscation has made it difficult to determine the exact nature of the fighting and its toll.Intense nationalism, too, has played a role in the current conflict, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has pursued an aggressive stance on Pakistan, trying to isolate it.His supporters have largely seemed satisfied with the military action so far. “We had voted for a strongman, and he has proved himself,” Manoj Misra, a Modi supporter in the city of Lucknow, said on Saturday.Several countries with close ties to both India and Pakistan, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, had been working for days to try to cool the conflict.Mr. Rubio spoke with the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan on Saturday morning, urging both sides to find a way out of the crisis and “avoid miscalculation,” according to the State Department. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, described his call with Mr. Rubio as “very reassuring.” As Truce Seems to Hold, India and Pakistan Both Claim Victory (New York Times)
New York Times [5/11/2025 4:11 PM, Anupreeta Das, Salman Masood, and Hari Kumar, 1187K]
The fragile truce between India and Pakistan appeared to be largely holding on its first full day after some initial skirmishing, as both countries turned on Sunday to making the case that they had come out on top in the four-day conflict.President Trump announced on Saturday that the two sides had agreed to a cease-fire with the help of U.S. mediation. That brought a halt to a military confrontation that had involved drones, missiles and intense shelling, and that had escalated, with strikes on military bases in both countries.Mr. Trump followed up with a congratulatory note on Sunday, praising the two sides for “having the strength, wisdom, and fortitude to fully know and understand that it was time to stop the current aggression that could have lead to to the death and destruction of so many, and so much.”He added that he would increase trade “substantially” with both countries, and that he would work with them to see if a “solution can be arrived at” to settle their seven-decade dispute over the Kashmir region.Pakistan, a onetime close ally of the United States that has faded in importance, praised the American role as a mediator. But in India, the Trump administration’s public descriptions of its role in the mediation seemed to touch some sensitive spots politically.The Indian government has long framed its relations with Pakistan as a strictly bilateral matter, and in the hours after the cease-fire was announced, India said it had negotiated directly with Pakistani officials.India made no reference to an American role, presumably in part because it hoped to avoid any domestic perception that it had stopped its fight against its neighbor and archenemy under outside pressure.On Sunday, a senior Indian official offered a timeline of the conflict that acknowledged discussions throughout with American officials but described India as making its own decisions.In talks with U.S. officials and diplomats from other countries, the official said, India stuck to a single message: that it would respond to every Pakistani attack with a counterattack.After Pakistan sent waves of drones into India early on Saturday, Indian forces struck hard at some of Pakistan’s key military bases, the official said. At that point, Pakistan expressed a willingness to hold talks through military leaders, the official said, and the two sides agreed to stop firing.Some supporters of the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi cast the truce as a victory owing to the might of the Indian armed forces. Pakistan, they argued, had been brought to a point where it was forced to seek a cease-fire.The Indian Air Force, in a post on social media, said on Sunday that it had carried out its mission with “precision and professionalism.”Triumphant memes were less reserved, and billboards popped up overnight. “Salute to the Indian Army — Our Pride, Our Protectors,” read one.Some Indian officials said that India’s actions in the conflict illustrated the tougher stance the country had taken on terrorism under Mr. Modi. India struck Pakistan after vowing a serious response to a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians on April 22.India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers — Pakistan denied any role — and two weeks later initiated its cross-border military campaign.In Pakistan, too, many cast the end of the confrontation as a victory for their country and military.The television channel Geo News broadcast footage of civilians showering flower petals on military tanks and placing garlands around soldiers’ necks in Sialkot, a city scarred by past military conflicts between India and Pakistan.Nadeem Farooq Paracha, a prominent columnist in Karachi, said the public mood reflected a sense of confidence not seen in years.“Pakistan may just have won its first ever war against India,” he said in an interview. “It successfully withstood a major Indian offensive and scored some vital military and diplomatic victories. India, on the other hand, has very little to show for its gambit.”Sabir Shah, a political analyst based in Lahore, said the Pakistan Air Force had demonstrated operational superiority.“Indian losses, in terms of military hardware, are surely much higher comparatively,” he said. Pakistan claims that five Indian planes were downed. India has not acknowledged losing any planes, but evidence suggests it lost at least two, according to eyewitness accounts and some government officials.As both sides tallied their gains and the other’s losses, uncertainty lingered over whether the cease-fire would hold. Soon after it was declared on Saturday, there were reports of cross-border shelling. But the situation appeared calm as of Sunday night.Sajad Shafi, a local politician from the border town of Uri on the Indian side of Kashmir, said that Sunday so far had been “peaceful.”
“There is a huge sense of relief among people,” he said.But while civilians were desperate to get back to their homes, Mr. Shafi urged them to stay another day in relief camps out of caution.“You can’t trust this cease-fire,” he said. “You never know what is next.” The U.S. helped deliver an India-Pakistan ceasefire. But can it hold? (Washington Post)
Washington Post [5/10/2025 5:03 PM, Karishma Mehrotra, Rick Noack, and Natalie Allison, 6.9M]
Over four nerve-racking nights, missiles and drones streaked across the skies of major cities in India and Pakistan, as the nuclear-armed neighbors appeared to be sliding toward all-out war. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, President Donald Trump announced a truce.“India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE,” Trump posted to Truth Social on Saturday, saying the deal had been reached “after a long night of talks mediated by the United States.”
The sudden announcement of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire followed four days of steady escalation between the regional rivals, and mixed signals from Washington over whether it would reprise its traditional role as mediator.
Amid celebrations in India and Pakistan on Saturday, and self-congratulations in Washington, Kashmir endured another night of violence, with both sides claiming violations — a grim reminder that the deal seems only to have temporarily contained one of the world’s longest-running conflicts rather than ended it.
A person familiar with the situation, who like others in this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said Vice President JD Vance called Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi around noon in Washington on Friday after senior U.S. officials became increasingly worried about the spiraling situation.
The person said Vance provided Modi with a potential “off-ramp” that U.S. officials understood Pakistani officials would be willing to accept. Over the next 12 to 18 hours, key U.S. officials worked the phones with counterparts on both sides, the person said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent much of Friday night going back and forth between senior Indian and Pakistani officials to seal the deal, according to a senior U.S. official.“We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace,” Rubio posted Saturday on X, adding that Vance had joined him in the efforts.
The role of the vice president was especially surprising, coming just a day after he had seemed to dismiss the possibility of a U.S. diplomatic intervention: “We’re not going to get involved in the middle of a war that’s fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it,” Vance told Fox News on Thursday.“We can’t control these countries,” he added.
Islamabad was quick on Saturday to acknowledge the U.S. role. One Pakistani official said the agreement rested on two factors: “One is the serious risk of escalation, and second, the White House administration — the external intervention.”“We should give the credit where it is due,” the official added.“De-escalation has ultimately come through the old playbook: the third party actors, led by the U.S.,” Moeed W. Yusuf, a former national security adviser for Pakistan, posted on X.
Indian officials were less forthcoming about the American role. Some commentators in New Delhi openly took issue with Rubio’s claim that India had agreed to “talks on a broad set of issues” with Pakistan; others pointed out that India has traditionally been opposed to third-party mediation on the disputed territory of Kashmir, preferring to handle the issue bilaterally.
But it was not the first time the U.S. has helped dial down tensions between the South Asian powers. In July 1999, President Bill Clinton hosted Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Washington at the height of the Kargil War and pressured him to withdraw his forces from Indian-administered territory.
Saturday’s ceasefire, however tenuous, is a win for an administration that has so far failed to deliver on Trump’s campaign promises to end wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
U.S. diplomatic efforts seemed to gather pace Thursday, when Rubio spoke with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
On the ground, though, the conflict was still heating up, as the countries exchanged strikes on military sites overnight Saturday and Pakistan announced the launch of “Operation Iron Wall.”
It was then that Rubio reached out to Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, according to officials in Islamabad.“I’d say what made the difference was Rubio’s conversation with Munir,” said Indrani Bagchi, the founder and CEO of the Ananta Aspen Center in New Delhi.
Later on Saturday, Rubio spoke with Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s foreign minister. Dar told Geo News that Rubio urged him to de-escalate the situation because “both countries are nuclear states and the world would not support this.”“The ball is in the Indians’ court,” Dar recounted telling Rubio, who then called India’s foreign minister, Jaishankar.
Hours later, around 3:30 p.m. in South Asia, Pakistan’s director general of military operations called his counterpart in India, said Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. A Pakistani official disputed that Islamabad had initiated the outreach.
Ultimately, though, both sides agreed that they would “stop all firing and military action” on land, air and sea from 5 p.m. onward, Misri said in a news conference Saturday evening.
Any hope that the pause in fighting would lead to a more lasting détente was quickly dispelled. Across Indian media on Saturday evening, an unattributed blast went out from the government: “India declares any future act of terror will be treated as act of war,” television anchors read verbatim.
Bagchi said India was “redefining its war doctrine” and “keeping the route open for further military action if there is another terror attack.”
Within hours, eyewitnesses along the Line of Control separating Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir reported loud explosions and swarms of drones overhead. New Delhi accused Pakistan of violating the ceasefire, which Islamabad strenuously denied.“We may be entering into a situation that is much more similar to crises that Israel has experienced in the Middle East over the last three decades, where it’s just very possible there could be strikes and counterstrikes,” said Christopher Clary, a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center’s South Asia program in Washington.
Ashley Tellis, a former State Department and National Security Council official, said Rubio had to “thread a tricky needle” in negotiating the ceasefire. The Trump administration supported India’s right to defend itself after a deadly attack by militants last month in Indian-administered Kashmir, but it also did not want India’s retaliation to “spin out of control.”
The intervention ultimately succeeded, Tellis said, “because neither India nor Pakistan sought an escalation to major war, and both sides had inflicted enough damage on the other to claim the victory.”
India claims to have inflicted damage on Pakistani bases, taken out an air radar system in Lahore, and destroyed “terrorist camps” where it said further cross-border attacks were being planned. Pakistani officials claim to have hit military targets deep inside India and to have downed five of its adversary’s fighter jets.
A Washington Post visual analysis found that India appeared to lose at least two French-made fighter jets during its initial attacks inside Pakistan on Wednesday morning — a Rafale and a Mirage 2000.
Misri, India’s foreign secretary, told reporters that the two directors general of military operations will talk again Monday. But there were no plans to discuss other issues, he cautioned, signaling the fragility of the current calm.“The quick disavowal by the government of India of the beginning of a political process should give the U.S. cause to doubt that this is much more than a ceasefire,” Clary said.
Bagchi put it more bluntly: The two countries had already “burned all bridges,” she said. India, Pakistan Cease-Fire Brokered by U.S. Appears to Hold (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [5/11/2025 3:44 PM, Shan Li and Alexander Ward, 126906K]
A fragile cease-fire between India and Pakistan to halt the worst violence between the two nuclear-armed rivals in years, appeared to hold through the weekend, despite initial accusations by Indian officials that Islamabad had violated the pact.
On Saturday, the pair agreed to stop firing after what President Trump described as a U.S.-brokered deal.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance led a diplomatic charge to get the two countries to back off from an escalating conflict that the president feared could go nuclear.
Rubio had spoken to his counterparts in both countries Friday, specifically telling them to engage in talks "to avoid miscalculation.".
The cease-fire ended days of clashes in the wake of a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi blames on Islamabad. Pakistan denies involvement in the attack.
Top U.S. officials received alarming intelligence Friday, indicating that the conflict between Pakistan and India might spiral out of control, according to a person familiar with the situation.
Over the past two days, Vance and Rubio took the lead in calling senior officials in India and Pakistan, urging them to end their escalating clashes.
On a Friday call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Vance encouraged the leader to consider de-escalation options and outlined some ideas that Pakistan might agree to, according to a person familiar with the situation. Modi didn’t explicitly say he was open to Vance’s peace outline before they hung up.
U.S. officials then continued to call their counterparts in India and Pakistan to ensure that they would stop fighting within a period of 12 to 18 hours.
In a post on his Truth Social network early Saturday, Trump congratulated both countries "on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence.".
U.S. intervention between the two countries has been influential in the past, though political analysts had warned that Washington’s sway over Islamabad had waned in recent years as China pulled Pakistan closer into its orbit.
The U.S. continues to be seen as a trustworthy intermediary by both sides. Political experts were concerned in recent days that Trump wasn’t focused enough on the risk of another major war breaking out in the world as he turned his attention to trade deals following tariff announcements in early April.
Doubts about the durability of the cease-fire arose hours after it was supposed to go into effect, when Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said Pakistan had repeatedly broken the truce.
"This is a breach of the earlier understanding arrived at today," he said. "The armed forces are giving an adequate and appropriate response.".
Pakistan denied violating the agreement.
Rubio said that both countries agreed to talks on the broader issues affecting their relations. The Indian Foreign Ministry, however, denied that further talks are planned.
India and the U.S. have drawn significantly closer in recent years amid increased tensions with China.
Husain Haqqani, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S., said Washington’s intervention was key.
"The two sides have no trust whatsoever," he said. "When the two protagonists have absolute mistrust, then the role of a major power acting as a broker in a cease-fire then is primarily to help be the provider of that trust to keep either side from panicking.".
However, Tamanna Salikuddin, a former director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the National Security Council under the Obama administration, said that the U.S. appears to underestimate the difficulty ahead in making a cease-fire stick. Tensions between Pakistan and India are exacerbated by bellicose rhetoric by leaders on both sides of the border who want to consolidate support at home and show off what they think are upgraded militaries.
The U.S., meanwhile, has let its own influence as a mediator in the region atrophy, she said, noting that the Trump administration hasn’t yet appointed ambassadors to New Delhi or Islamabad.
Last week, India launched what it called retaliatory strikes for the militant attack last month in its part of Kashmir that left 26 people dead. Pakistan said it shot down Indian jets involved in those strikes. India hasn’t commented on the allegation.
Until the latest flare-up, India and Pakistan had maintained a frosty peace as both sides focused on internal issues, and India largely followed a strategy of not engaging with Pakistan.
But the first direct clashes in years—including the use of new types of weapons and claims by Pakistan that it downed Indian jet fighters—risked the simmering conflict between them erupting into a full-blown war.
India has said the militants involved in the Kashmir attack last month belong to Lashkar-e Taiba, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization based in Pakistan that carried out the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
India accuses Pakistan of backing the militants. Pakistan has denied any involvement in the April attack.
Political analysts initially expected the latest hostilities to follow the pattern of a similar confrontation in 2019 when, following a deadly attack on security personnel in the part of Kashmir it governs, India launched a strike over the border that it said targeted what it described as Pakistani terror camps. Pakistan responded at that time by shooting down an Indian jet fighter. The tit-for-tat de-escalated after Islamabad repatriated the pilot.
But this time, both countries deployed types of weapons they haven’t used against each other before, such as drones and loitering munitions in large numbers, making the outcome more unpredictable.
The cease-fire represented a win for the Trump administration. Bringing the recent fighting between India and Pakistan to a halt demonstrated the power Washington retains to influence global conflicts.
Kashmir was divided between India and Pakistan in 1947 during the partition of the Indian subcontinent, but both countries claim the Himalayan region in full. They have fought three wars over the territory, the most recent one in 1999. Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/11/2025 9:02 PM, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akayla Gardner, 75K]
After four days that saw the worst fighting between India and Pakistan in half a century, as well as some nuclear saber-rattling, Donald Trump on Saturday declared that both countries had reached a “FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.”But in the Indian capital of New Delhi, many top officials were seething. The US president’s post on Truth Social caught key officials involved by surprise, according to people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified because the discussions were private.What really offended them was not simply the US efforts to de-escalate. Talks between India and Pakistan had been underway behind the scenes even as drones and missiles flew back and forth, targeting military bases on both sides in the most intense fighting since a 1971 war.Rather, it was Trump’s move to upstage Prime Minister Narendra Modi, undermine India’s longstanding policy to resolve the Kashmir territorial dispute through bilateral talks and — perhaps worst of all — put the sworn enemies on an equal footing, a move officials in New Delhi have resisted as the nation’s economy surges ahead of Pakistan.The anger was captured by one of Modi’s most vocal supporters, the nationalist television anchor Arnab Goswami. He used his nightly television program to urge a strong military response ever since gunmen in Pahalgam, a town under Indian control in Kashmir, killed 26 people on April 22, most of them tourists.India has called the massacre the worst terrorist violence since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Modi’s government pinned the blame on Pakistan, which has denied involvement, leading to the outbreak of hostilities last week.“This is typical Trump overreach at a time when he doesn’t have a mandate to do so,” Goswami roared in a clip that has since gone viral on social media in India. “How on earth can Trump equalize between what has happened in Pahalgam and what has happened thereafter? It’s a clear overstretch.”While financial markets are likely to cheer any ceasefire, it’s uncertain whether it will hold: Both sides reported drone attacks along the Line of Control, the de facto border in Kashmir, just hours after Trump’s announcement, although the truce appeared to be holding on Sunday. India has also refused to revive a decades-old water treaty critical to Pakistan’s economy. And the way the ceasefire itself unfolded may have helped set the stage for even more intense fighting down the road.Many Indians are angry at the US and feel as though the outcome amounts to a loss, adding pressure on Modi to hit back hard against any future attacks on civilians or cross-border provocations. In Pakistan, meanwhile, news of the ceasefire was met with fireworks and celebrations, and the military has been hailed as victors — incentive for top generals to follow the same playbook in future skirmishes.Even worse, officials familiar with the matter said that certain red lines were crossed in the four days of fighting that will make any future clashes more unpredictable and harder to de-escalate.Unlike in past years, when strikes were largely limited to the disputed region of Kashmir, the officials said the entire international border stretching to the Indian Ocean is now fair game for strikes, including military bases near major cities. And the weaponry is more sophisticated and deadly, from kamikaze drones to Chinese fighter jets that proved surprisingly effective.“We have a recipe for the next crisis to be especially nasty, as both sides want to show old rules don’t apply,” said Christopher Clary, a former Pentagon official who’s an associate professor of political science at SUNY Albany and nonresident fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center.“India wants to reset the rules of engagement — it believes that Pakistan will stop its troublesome behavior only if India can swiftly and decisively raise costs on Pakistan,” Clary added. “Pakistan wants to make such attempts costly and dangerous for India.”
‘None of Our Business’For now, the ceasefire pulls both countries back from a confrontation that had been escalating for weeks, and came perilously close to all-out war before Trump’s abrupt announcement on Saturday.Just days earlier, the US had appeared to take a hands-off approach. Although Trump had called on both sides to de-escalate, Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Thursday that the conflict was “fundamentally none of our business.”By Friday morning, however, worries in the White House had begun to grow, according to a person familiar with the matter who requested anonymity. An increasing number of drone, missile and artillery strikes generated fears among senior US officials that the conflict between the nuclear powers might spiral out of control — and it appeared that neither side was seriously considering de-escalation.The US officials then decided that Vance should call Modi directly to encourage de-escalation and outline a potential off-ramp that would also be acceptable to Pakistan, the person said.In many ways, it made sense for Vance to make the call. He was in India during the Kashmir attack, traveling on a four-day trip with his Indian-American wife Usha and their two children. A day before the attack, he had dined with Modi at his residence, where they discussed a trade deal that’s in advanced stages. Vance’s phone call took place around noon in Washington on Friday. Modi didn’t commit to de-escalation during that call and repeated his message that India would hit back if Pakistan escalated, according to a separate person familiar with the matter.Hours later, India struck three Pakistani airbases, including near the capital in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, which holds the offices of army chief General Asim Munir, the most powerful person in Pakistan.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio conducted another round of diplomacy, placing separate calls to Munir and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. In that call, Rubio asked if India would de-escalate if Pakistan did as well, and Jaishankar said that had always been India’s position, according to a person familiar with the situation.Pakistan’s Directors General of Military Operations — a group of top generals — called counterparts in India at 1 p.m. local time, according to the person. The two sides talked some two-and-a-half hours later, and both sides agreed to stop hostilities, the person said.Then, before either India or Pakistan announced the ceasefire, Trump revealed the agreement on his Truth Social account. Rubio followed with a tweet saying that he and Vance had worked out the deal with officials from both countries, including Modi, Munir, Jaishankar, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others. Both sides agreed to begin talks “on a broad set of issues at a neutral site,” he said. The ceasefire announcement was met with jubilation in Pakistan. In a late-night address to the nation, Sharif called it a “historic victory” and thanked the US, as well as other countries he said had helped to mediate, including Saudi Arabia and China.In India, however, a different reaction was beginning to take hold. Indian officials privately denied that the US negotiated the settlement, and there was anger among top officials that Trump had been the first to announce the ceasefire. They suspected that Pakistan told the US about the de-escalation, according to people familiar with the situation. Pakistan’s military spokesman Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry on Sunday denied they had requested a ceasefire.While Trump and Pakistani leader Sharif both publicly hailed the ceasefire, Modi stayed silent. On Saturday evening in New Delhi, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri briefed reporters about the ceasefire and made no mention of any US role. Indian officials were also upset that Rubio said publicly that representatives for both countries would meet at a neutral location, the people said.The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment. In response to questions about events over the weekend, a spokesperson for the State Department said that Trump and Rubio continue to urge both countries to maintain a full ceasefire and stay in direct communication, adding that the US continues to support efforts to avert future conflict.India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t immediately respond to an email sent outside of Indian business hours seeking further information.To make things worse for India, Trump followed up his ceasefire announcement with a post on Sunday morning in Asia saying he was proud of “the strong and unwaveringly powerful leadership of India and Pakistan.” He also pledged to increase trade with both nations and help find a “solution” to the Kashmir issue. To India, Trump’s move to “hyphenate” the two countries is a significant diplomatic victory for Pakistan and a downgrade for Modi, people familiar with the matter said.“This is a big, big win,” Naeem Khan Lodhi, a retired Lieutenant General in the Pakistan army, said by phone. “We knew we would do well, but this is a pleasant surprise.”Indian opposition figures have already begun to mobilize against US mediation.“We don’t need a US intervention or that of any other country to find a solution on Kashmir,” Priyanka Chaturvedi, an opposition member of parliament, said on X. Manish Tewari, an opposition Indian National Congress party member of parliament, said Trump needs to be told that “Kashmir is not a biblical 1,000-year-old conflict.”It remains to be seen if the dust-up between India and the US will have wider ramifications, particularly on negotiating a trade deal that will help India avoid Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs. Modi has sought to position India as a nation that can attract companies from China, as seen by big investments from Apple Inc. to make iPhones in the country.Under Modi, India has enhanced its profile on the world stage, seeking to become a leader of the so-called Global South developing nations. At the same time, officials in New Delhi increasingly see Pakistan as a diminished power.In recent years, India and Pakistan have gone down radically different paths. India’s economy has grown 20% since 2019, while its stock market has doubled. Its economy is now eight times that of Pakistan.Pakistan, meanwhile, is mired in a crisis that brought it to the brink of bankruptcy. The IMF on Friday approved a $1 billion tranche under a bailout program, overriding Indian objections. While India’s stock market has largely shrugged off the conflict, Pakistan’s main stock benchmark slumped to a five-month low last week — though investors said a ceasefire should help fuel a recovery.“From a medium to long-term perspective, an effective ceasefire is always very good for the market,” said Saurabh Rungta, chief investment officer at Mumbai-based Avendus Wealth Management. “Investors will still wait and watch if the ceasefire agreement is restricted to words or also implemented in action.”The notion of outside mediation in Kashmir has been a third rail in Indian politics for decades. India has rejected any international criticism of its actions in Kashmir, saying the issue is one to be sorted out with Pakistan alone. India took that position the last time Trump tried to intervene in Kashmir, during his first term in 2019. At the time, Trump said during a White House meeting with Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Imran Khan that he was open to mediating the conflict — going so far as to add that Modi himself had invited him to do so. Khan replied that Trump would have the prayers of millions of people if he succeeded.The offer provoked a ferocious backlash in India. Modi’s government denied making any such offer. Trump backed off, but kept in touch with leaders on both sides and tried to calm tensions as they flared up again later that year.Pakistan has repeatedly appealed for global help in settling the Kashmir dispute, including at the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. It ramped up those efforts after India’s 2019 decision to strip the seven-decade autonomy of its portion of Kashmir, which Pakistan opposed.“This has been the historical argument from Pakistan, that they want international intervention,” said Sushant Singh, a lecturer at Yale University. “India wanted Pakistani capitulation. What we have gotten instead is a Trump mediation.”Future DangersThe conflict over Kashmir is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, no matter how hard Trump pushes for peace. And the latest tensions only show the potential for greater violence.Pakistan said it took down five Indian aircraft in the conflict, including French-made Rafales, purchased as part of an upgrade to India’s air fleet of largely Cold War-era Russian fighters. Pakistan said it did so with the help of its Chinese-made J-10C fighters, underscoring the new potential of Chinese firepower in the conflict. India hasn’t addressed whether it lost any aircraft. One potential trigger point for another conflict is the Indus Water treaty, which India has refused to revive in the ceasefire arrangement. Pakistan has said any attempt by India to stop water flowing down from the Himalayas will be considered an “act of war.”
“This conflict will be the template for the next crisis,” Clary, the former Pentagon official, said of the past week’s fighting. “And there will be a next crisis.” India, Pakistan military officials to discuss next steps; markets inch up (Reuters)
Reuters [5/12/2025 4:03 AM, Aftab Ahmed, Shivam Patel and Abhijith Ganapavaram, 5.2M]
India’s military operations chief is expected to hold talks on Monday with his Pakistan counterpart about the next steps after a ceasefire, New Delhi has said, as it reopened airports and share markets in the nuclear-armed neighbours edged higher.
There were no reports of explosions or projectiles overnight, after some initial ceasefire violations, with the Indian Army saying Sunday was the first peaceful night in recent days along the border, although some schools remain closed.
Saturday’s ceasefire in the Himalayan region, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, followed four days of intense firing and diplomacy and pressure from Washington.
India’s military sent a "hotline" message to Pakistan on Sunday about the previous day’s ceasefire violations, flagging New Delhi’s intent to respond to further such incidents, a top Indian army officer said.
A spokesman for Pakistan’s military denied any violations.
In a statement on Saturday, India’s foreign ministry said both sides’ director generals of military operations would speak to each other on Monday.
Pakistan did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the talks.On Monday, India reopened 32 airports it had shut during the clashes, with the Airports Authority of India saying in a statement they were available for civil operations. Pakistan had reopened its airspace on Saturday.
The arch rivals had targeted each other’s military installations with missiles and drones, killing dozens of civilians as relations turned sour after India blamed Pakistan for an attack that killed 26 tourists.
Pakistan denies the accusations and has called for a neutral investigation.
India said it launched strikes on nine ‘terrorist infrastructure’ sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir on Wednesday, but Islamabad has said those were civilian sites.
Pakistan’s sovereign dollar bonds rallied more than 4 cents on Monday before retracing, with longer-dated issues gaining the most. The 2036 maturity was trading 3.60 cents higher by 0627 GMT, to be bid at 76.16 cents on the dollar.
Late on Friday, the International Monetary Fund approved a fresh $1.4-billion loan to Pakistan under its climate resilience fund and approved the first review of its $7-billion program.
Pakistan’s benchmark share index (.KSE) was up 8.5% on Monday, after a brief trading halt earlier in the session. It has recovered most of its losses in the past three sessions after India’s strikes.
Indian benchmarks jumped about 3%, after the Nifty (.NSEI) index lost 1.5% in the prior three sessions. Worries about the conflict also erased $83 billion from equities in the two days until Friday.
While Islamabad has thanked Washington for facilitating the ceasefire and welcomed Trump’s offer to mediate in the Kashmir dispute, New Delhi has not commented on U.S. involvement in the truce or talks at a neutral site.
India, which says disputes with Pakistan have to be resolved directly by the neighbours, has in the past rejected the involvement of any third party.
"Kashmir is a bilateral issue, not an international issue," Shilpak Ambule, its high commissioner, or ambassador, in Singapore, told Bloomberg TV. "For us, the word mediation does not work with the Kashmir issue."
The main opposition Congress party, which had backed Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the April 22 attack, agreed, while calling for a special parliament session on the latest developments with Pakistan.
"The government should also give its stand on the statements made by America on the Kashmir issue, as this is a bilateral issue," Congress leader Sachin Pilot said in a post on X on Sunday.
Hindu-majority India and Muslim Pakistan both rule part of the Himalayan region of Kashmir, but claim it in full.
India blames Pakistan for an insurgency in its part of Kashmir that began in 1989, but Pakistan says it provides only moral, political and diplomatic support to Kashmiri separatists. Rubio speaks with UK’s Lammy, Germany’s Merz on India-Pakistan tensions, Russia (Reuters)
Reuters [5/11/2025 10:47 PM, Staff, 41523K]
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in separate calls late on Sunday and reaffirmed the U.S stance on the war in Ukraine.
UK’s Lammy and Rubio also discussed the ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, and called for both countries to maintain the ceasefire and to continue to communicate.
Rubio said the U.S. supported direct dialogue between India and Pakistan and encouraged continued efforts to improve communications.
In a separate call with Merz, Rubio congratulated the chancellor on his appointment and discussed the countries shared goal of ending the war in Ukraine.
Reporting by Gursimran Kaur in Bengaluru; Editing by Tom Hogue and Christian Schmollinger.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab. Rubio offers US help to secure peace in escalating India-Pakistan conflict (The Guardian)
The Guardian [5/10/2025 7:15 AM, William Christou, 78938K]
US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has offered US assistance in starting "constructive talks" to end the conflict between India and Pakistan, as the two states traded heavy missile fire on Saturday, prompting concerns over wider military escalation.
Rubio has been engaged in back-and-forth diplomacy between the two countries in recent days, calling for de-escalation as India and Pakistan have been engaged in daily clashes since Wednesday.
The US’s top diplomat "continued to urge both parties to find ways to de-escalate and offered US assistance in starting constructive talks to avoid future conflicts," state department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement on Saturday.
Fighting between India and Pakistan started on Wednesday after Indian missiles hit nine sites in Pakistan, killing 31 people and triggering a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks between the two countries. India said Wednesday’s missile strikes were in retaliation for an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in late April, which saw militants kill 25 Hindu tourists and a guide, which India blamed on Pakistan.
Clashes peaked on Saturday, as both countries launched missile strikes deep in each other’s territories, using long-range weapons, drone swarms and fighter jets.
Both Indian and Pakistani officials have said that they did not wish to see further escalation. At a press briefing on Saturday, Indian military officers said: "Indian armed forces reiterated their commitment to non-escalation, provided the Pakistan side reciprocates.".
Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, said while they had no "issue to de-escalate," that he did not trust India’s statements.
There has been a flurry of international diplomacy to head off conflict, as despite both India and Pakistan stating that they do not want escalation, there has been a steady uptick in intensity during the week of clashes.
The deepening hostilities have raised widespread international concern, with the two nuclear powers closer to war than they have been in decades.
US efforts to try to mediate between India and Pakistan have been spearheaded by Rubio, who has been in regular contact with both Pakistani prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and Indian foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, since the Kashmir attack.
India has been a key US ally in the region in recent years, seen as a counter to China’s rising influence – a top policy concern of the Trump administration. The US, in turn, is India’s largest trading partner, and Reuters reports that it has offered preferential trading terms to the Americans in order to secure a stronger partnership with its ally.
Nonetheless, the US had earlier seemed reluctant to get involved in the India-Pakistan row, with US president, Donald Trump, calling the tit-for-tat strikes "a shame" earlier in the week. The vice-president, JD Vance, said an India-Pakistan war would be "fundamentally none of our business and has nothing to do with America’s ability to control it".
The US currently does not have an ambassador in India nor Pakistan, as the Trump administration has yet to fill the vacancies.
Other countries, such as China and Saudi Arabia, have stepped in to try to defuse the situation. China, which supplies much of Pakistan’s military hardware, also said that it would be willing to "play a constructive role" to find a solution to fighting.
Pakistan’s defence minister said on Saturday that Saudi Arabia was playing a key role as interlocutor and that the Saudi foreign minister had sent a representative to Pakistan.
UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, joined G7 ministers in calling for calm, with the G7 issuing a statement on Saturday urging "maximum restraint" from both India and Pakistan.
"We call for immediate de-escalation and encourage both countries to engage in direct dialogue towards a peaceful outcome," the statement read. Trump vows to increase trade with India, Pakistan after praising ceasefire agreement: ‘A job well done!’ (FOX News)
FOX News [5/11/2025 4:22 AM, Landon Mion, 126906K]
President Donald Trump on Saturday promised to increase trade with India and Pakistan after the two nations agreed to a ceasefire to end the conflict with each other."While not even discussed, I am going to increase trade, substantially, with both of these great Nations," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Additionally, I will work with you both to see if, after a ‘thousand years,’ a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir. God Bless the leadership of India and Pakistan on a job well done!!!"The fragile ceasefire was holding on Sunday after several days of intense fighting, with dozens killed as missiles and drones were fired at each other’s military bases. The deal was reached after diplomacy and pressure from the U.S., but artillery fire was witnessed in Indian Kashmir within hours of the agreement.Attacks were witnessed in cities near the border under a blackout, as was the case in the previous two evenings.The fighting began on Wednesday after 26 men were killed two weeks prior in an attack targeting Hindus in Pahalgam in Kashmir. Both countries rule part of Kashmir but claim full control.Late on Saturday, India accused Pakistan of violating the agreement to stop firing and that the Indian armed forces had been told to "deal strongly" with any continued firings.Pakistan blamed India for violating the truce and said it was committed to the ceasefire.The fighting and explosions reported overnight had quieted on both sides of the border by dawn on Sunday."I am very proud of the strong and unwaveringly powerful leadership of India and Pakistan for having the strength, wisdom, and fortitude to fully know and understand that it was time to stop the current aggression that could have lead to to [sic] the death and destruction of so many, and so much," Trump said in his post."Millions of good and innocent people could have died! Your legacy is greatly enhanced by your brave actions. I am proud that the USA was able to help you arrive at this historic and heroic decision," he added.In the Indian border city of Amritsar, a siren sounded Sunday morning to resume normal activities.Officials in Pakistan said there was some firing in Bhimber in Pakistani Kashmir overnight, but there was no fighting anywhere else and no casualties were reported.The two countries have gone to war three times, including twice over Kashmir. How backchannels and US mediators pulled India and Pakistan back from the brink (BBC)
BBC [5/11/2025 3:50 AM, Soutik Biswas and Vikas Pandey, 33298K]
In a dramatic turn of events, US President Donald Trump took to social media on Saturday to announce that India and Pakistan - after four tense days of cross-border clashes - had agreed to a "full and immediate ceasefire".
Behind the scenes, US mediators, alongside diplomatic backchannels and regional players, proved critical in pulling the nuclear-armed rivals back from the brink, experts say.
However, hours after a ceasefire deal, India and Pakistan were trading accusations of fresh violations - underscoring its fragility.
India accused Pakistan of "repeated violations" while Pakistan insisted it remained committed to the ceasefire, with its forces showing "responsibility and restraint.".
Before Trump’s ceasefire announcement, India and Pakistan were spiralling towards what many feared could become a full-blown conflict.
After a deadly militant attack killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month, India launched air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir - triggering days of aerial clashes, artillery duels and, by Saturday morning, accusations from both sides of missile strikes on each other’s airbases.
The rhetoric escalated sharply, with each country claiming to have inflicted heavy damage while foiling the other’s attacks.
Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s call to Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir on 9 May "might have been the crucial point".
"There’s still much we don’t know about the roles of various international actors, but it’s clear over the past three days that at least three countries were working to de-escalate - the US, of course, but also the UK and Saudi Arabia," she says.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told Pakistani media that "three dozen countries" were involved in the diplomacy - including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US.
"One question is whether, if this call had come earlier - right after the initial Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some Indian losses and an off-ramp was available - it might have prevented further escalation," Ms Madan says.
This isn’t the first time US mediation has helped defuse an India–Pakistan crisis.
In his memoir, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed he was woken up to speak with an unnamed "Indian counterpart", who feared Pakistan was preparing nuclear weapons during the 2019 standoff.
Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria later wrote that Pompeo overstated both the risk of nuclear escalation and the US role in calming the conflict.
But diplomats say there is little doubt the US played an important role in defusing the crisis this time.
"The US was the most prominent external player. Last time, Pompeo claimed they averted nuclear war. While they’ll likely exaggerate, they may have played the primary diplomatic role, perhaps amplifying Delhi’s positions in Islamabad," Mr Bisaria told the BBC on Saturday.
Yet at the outset, the US appeared strikingly standoffish.
As tensions flared, US Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday that the US was not going to get involved in a war that’s "fundamentally none of our business".
"We can’t control these countries though. Fundamentally, India has its gripes with Pakistan... America can’t tell the Indians to lay down their arms. We can’t tell the Pakistanis to lay down their arms. And so we’re going to continue to pursue this thing through diplomatic channels, " he said in a television interview.
Meanwhile, President Trump said earlier this week: "I know both [leaders of India and Pakistan] very well, and I want to see them work it out... I want to see them stop, and hopefully they can stop now".
Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst, told the BBC this appeared to be the only difference from previous occasions.
"The American role was a continuation of past patterns, but with one key difference - this time, they initially stayed hands-off, watching the crisis unfold instead of jumping in right away. Only when they saw how it was playing out did they step in to manage it," Mr Haider told the BBC.
Experts in Pakistan say as the escalation cycle deepened, Pakistan sent "dual signals", retaliating militarily while announcing a National Command Authority (NCA) meeting - a clear reminder of the nuclear overhang.
The NCA controls and takes operational decisions regarding Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
This was around the time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stepped in.
"The US was indispensable. This outcome would not have occurred without Secretary Rubio’s efforts," Ashley J Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the BBC.
What also helped was Washington’s deepening ties with Delhi.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal rapport with Trump, plus the US’s broader strategic and economic stakes, gave the US administration diplomatic leverage to push both nuclear-armed rivals towards de-escalation.
Indian diplomats see three key peace tracks that happened this time, much like after Pulwama–Balakot in 2019:
US and UK pressure Saudi mediation, with the Saudi junior foreign minister visiting both capitals
The direct India-Pakistan channel between the two national security advisors (NSAs)
Despite shifting global priorities and a hands-off posture at first, the US ultimately stepped in as the indispensable mediator between South Asia’s nuclear rivals.
Whether overstated by its own officials or underacknowledged by Delhi and Islamabad, experts believe the US’s role as crisis manager remains as vital - and as complicated - as ever.
Doubts do, however, linger over the ceasefire’s durability after Saturday’s events, with some Indian media reporting it was essentially brokered by senior military officials of the two countries - not the US.
"This ceasefire is bound to be a fragile one. It came about very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. India appears to have interpreted it differently than did the US and Pakistan," Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, told the BBC.
"Also, since it was put together so hastily, the accord may lack the proper guarantees and assurances one would need at such a tense moment.".
The Danger for India and Pakistan Has Not Gone Away (New York Times)
New York Times [5/11/2025 4:14 PM, Mujib Mashal, 831K]
India and Pakistan have seemingly pulled back from the brink again. But so much was new about the nuclear-armed enemies’ chaotic four-day clash, and so many of the underlying accelerants remain volatile, that there’s little to suggest that the truce represents any return to old patterns of restraint.
A new generation of military technology fueled a dizzying aerial escalation. Waves of airstrikes and antiaircraft volleys with modern weapons set the stage. Soon they were joined by weaponized drones en masse for the first time both along the two countries’ extensive boundaries and deep into their territory — hundreds of them in the sky, probing each nation’s defenses and striking without risk to any pilot.
Then the missiles and drones were streaking past the border areas and deep into India’s and Pakistan’s territories, directly hitting air and defense bases, prompting dire threats and the highest level of military alert.
Only then did international diplomacy — a crucial factor in past pullbacks between India and Pakistan — seem to engage in earnest, at what felt like the last minute before catastrophe. In a new global chapter defined by perilous conflicts, distracted leaders and a retreating sense of international responsibility to keep peace, the safety net had never seemed thinner.“Going back historically, many of the India-Pakistan conflicts have been stopped because of external intervention,” said Srinath Raghavan, a military historian and strategic analyst.
Mr. Raghavan observed that neither country has a significant military industrial base, and the need to rely on weapons sales from abroad means outside pressure can have an effect. But the positions of both sides appeared more extreme this time, and India in particular seemed to want to see if it could achieve an outcome different from previous conflicts.“I think there is a stronger sort of determination, it seems, on the part of the Indian government to sort of make sure that the Pakistanis do not feel that they can just get away or get even,” he said. “Which definitely is part of the escalatory thing. Both sides seem to feel that they cannot let this end with the other side feeling that they have somehow got the upper hand.”
The political realities in India and Pakistan — each gripped by an entrenched religious nationalism — remain unchanged after the fighting. And that creates perhaps the most powerful push toward the kind of confrontation that could get out of hand again.
Pakistan is dominated by a military establishment that has stifled civilian institutions and is run by a hard-line general who is a product of decades of efforts to Islamize the armed forces. And the triumphalism of Hindu nationalism, which is reshaping India’s secular democracy as an overtly Hindu state, has driven an uncompromising approach to Pakistan.
On Sunday, there was still no indication that Pakistan or India might repair their diplomatic relations, which had been frosty even before the military escalation, or ease visa restrictions on each other’s citizens. And India did not seem to be backing away from its declaration that it would no longer comply with a river treaty between the two countries — a critical factor for Pakistan, which said that any effort to block water flows would be seen as an act of war.
The spark for the latest fighting was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any role.
The crisis ended a six-year lull in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Indian government had taken a two-pronged approach to Pakistan: trying to isolate its neighbor with minimum contact and to bolster security at home, particularly through heavily militarizing the Indian side of Kashmir.
Establishing a pattern of escalatory military action in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, India had boxed itself into a position of maximal response. After last month’s attack, the political pressure to deliver a powerful military response was immediate.
But the choices for India’s military were not easy. It publicly fumbled the last direct clash with Pakistan, in 2019, when a transport helicopter went down and when Pakistani forces shot down a Soviet-era Indian fighter plane and captured its pilot.
Mr. Modi’s effort to modernize his military since then, pouring in billions of dollars, was hampered by supply constraints caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. India was also stressed by a four-year skirmish on its Himalayan border with China, where tens of thousands of troops remained on war footing until a few months ago.
When it came time to use force against Pakistan this past week, India wanted to put that lost prestige and those past difficulties behind it. It also sought to show a new, more muscular approach on the world stage, able to wield not just its rising economic and diplomatic power, but military might as well.
Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who have studied the dynamics between India and Pakistan said that India came out of this latest conflict looking assertive and aggressive, and perhaps has established some new level of deterrence with Pakistan.
But the way the fight played out did not suggest improvement at the operational or strategic level, they said.
In its opening round of airstrikes, on Wednesday, India struck targets deeper inside the enemy territory than it had in decades, and by all accounts had hit close enough to facilities associated with terrorist groups that it could claim victory.
Each day that followed was filled with language from both India and Pakistan suggesting that they had achieved what they wanted and were ready for restraint. But each night was filled with violence and escalation. More traditional artillery volleys across the border kept intensifying, bringing the heaviest loss of life. And the drone and airstrikes grew increasingly bold, until some of each country’s most sensitive military and strategic sites were being targeted.
What finally seemed to trigger the intense diplomatic pressure from the United States, with clear help on the ground from the Saudis and other Persian Gulf states, was not just that the targets were getting closer to sensitive sites — but also just what the next step in a rapid escalation ladder for two alarmed nuclear powers could mean.
Shortly before a cease-fire was announced late on Saturday, Indian officials were already signaling that any new terror attack against India’s interests would be met with similar levels of force.“We have left India’s future history to ask what politico-strategic advantages, if any, were gained,” said Gen. Ved Prakash Malik, a former chief of the Indian Army. India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era (New York Times – opinion)
New York Times [5/9/2025 4:14 PM, Asfandyar Mir, 831K]
When India and Pakistan clash, the world too often dismisses it wearily as just another flare-up of age-old animosities over religion and Kashmir punctuated by inconclusive cross-border skirmishes. As President Trump recently put it — inaccurately — “They’ve had that fight for a thousand years in Kashmir,” and “probably longer than that.”
This is somewhat understandable. Despite a few wars and many more scuffles between Muslim-majority Pakistan and predominantly Hindu India, confrontations have always been followed by negotiation and diplomacy, often facilitated by the United States. Even when serious fighting did erupt, established guardrails kept the two sides from coming too close to the unthinkable: using their nuclear weapons.
That predictable cycle is a thing of the past. The immediate trigger for the military conflict now underway between the countries was a terrorist attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir last month that killed 26 people. The incident’s rapid escalation into armed hostilities spotlights a profound and dangerous shift in the India-Pakistan rivalry in recent years that has eliminated the diplomatic space that had allowed the neighbors to avoid a devastating conflict.
That shift can be traced to the two countries’ vastly different trajectories.
India has emerged as a geopolitical and economic powerhouse and its Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, has cast it as not only a great nation, but an ascendant great civilization whose moment on the global stage has arrived. This has crystallized an uncompromising mind-set in which New Delhi increasingly views Pakistan not as a disruptive nuisance but an acute threat to India’s rightful rise. India has lost patience with Pakistan’s claim on the Indian-held half of Kashmir, the Muslim-majority region that each side calls its own, and its support of anti-India terrorism.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has been mired for two decades in economic, political and security crises. One institution there reigns supreme: a powerful army that dominates decision-making and has very significant conventional and nuclear military capability. Although beleaguered, Pakistan, with its own ambitions to remain a regional power, is unwilling to back down against India and on issues such as Kashmir that are central to its national identity.
In decades past, it was usually Indian restraint in the face of Pakistani actions that maintained an uneasy equilibrium. Even after deadly incidents such as the 2008 attack in Mumbai by Pakistan-based terrorists, which killed 166 people, India typically responded with moderation and periodic peace overtures.
Under Mr. Modi, that has changed. Over the past decade, he has shifted to a strategy of seeking to isolate Pakistan internationally coupled with covert operations, subversion and targeted killings. At the same time, Pakistan, and in particular its army, has showed signs of interest in stepping back from its traditional anti-India posture for a period. After a border conflict in 2019, Pakistan exercised more restraint than perhaps at any other point in the two nations’ fraught history, including restoring a cease-fire in 2021. But by then, India had moved on.
Even if the two sides back off and the current hostilities fizzle, India seems determined to pursue a more absolutist endgame of long-term pressure aimed at changing Pakistani political calculations on India and inflicting irreparable damage to Pakistan’s main power center, its army. Since the Kashmir attack last month, prominent Indian politicians and analysts have taken a more maximalist position, arguing that Pakistan is a failed rogue state and that India must actively seek its destruction.
Pakistan, aware of this shift, has abandoned hope of normalized relations with India and appears to be girding for a prolonged confrontation. Ominously, the confrontation is threatening crucial guardrails that prevented conflicts from spiraling. India last month suspended a 1960 treaty on the sharing of rivers, in particular the Indus waters, threatening one of Pakistan’s most important water supplies. Pakistan previously warned that such a suspension would be considered an “act of war” and has threatened to abandon a 1972 agreement that established the border in a divided Kashmir.
All of this is taking place as the United States has stepped back from being South Asia’s crisis manager. Washington once served as an intermediary, trusted by both sides and able to pull India and Pakistan back from the brink. In 1999, President Bill Clinton personally intervened to help end direct fighting between the two countries in Kashmir; U.S. shuttle diplomacy defused tensions after terrorists attacked India’s Parliament in 2001; and American officials prevented military escalation after the 2008 Mumbai attacks and helped bring some of those responsible to justice.
Today, prospects for that kind of good-offices role have withered. The Biden administration distanced itself from India-Pakistan tensions largely to placate New Delhi, which Washington wants to serve as a regional counterweight to China. The Trump administration has voiced strong support for Mr. Modi but is otherwise preoccupied with its trade war, conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and diplomacy with Iran. At any rate, third-party mediation appears no longer welcome in New Delhi, which sees it as enabling Pakistan, and it is often ineffective with Islamabad, which distrusts Western countries’ ties with India. Communication channels between India and Pakistan that once provided crucial safety valves have also atrophied.
None of that is any excuse for international complacency as the two nuclear-armed nations trade blows. The Russia-Ukraine war has shattered taboos on issuing nuclear threats, and if India cannot change Pakistani calculations through limited armed actions it may try more punishing military operations that bring it closer to Pakistan’s nuclear redlines. A deeper, more spiteful animosity between two countries that account for roughly a fifth of humanity would add to the world’s mounting political and economic troubles, to say nothing of the potential human costs of expanded conventional warfare along the densely populated India-Pakistan border.
The United States needs to recognize it has vital interests at stake. India is crucial to America’s future in Asia, especially to the U.S. rivalry with China. Some in the U.S. government may be tempted to more squarely back India and completely disengage from Pakistan. But India’s effectiveness as a balance to Beijing, as a contributor to broader Indo-Pacific security and as a U.S. trade partner will be substantially diminished if New Delhi is perpetually locked in a costly rivalry with Pakistan.
Pakistan, for its part, would almost certainly be driven further into China’s arms, leaving the United States with even less leverage and influence over a nation of nearly 250 million people in a region otherwise dominated by American adversaries. That will be a bad outcome for the United States and deepen India’s challenge.
The United States and global partners such as Britain and Japan — along with nations that have influence over Pakistan, such as Persian Gulf powers and Turkey — should see the current hostilities not as an annoying and typical outburst, but for what it is: a conflict that is primed to become nastier with the terrifying potential to go nuclear.
They should immediately intervene to cool things down, pressure India and Pakistan to recommit to longstanding guardrails and start talking. Equilibrium must be restored, quickly, in this most dangerous of global hot spots. The alternative is a catastrophe the world cannot afford to risk. Twitter
Afghanistan
Shawn VanDiver@shawnjvandiver[5/9/2025 9:56 PM, 33.4K followers, 27 retweets, 151 likes]
NEW: The federal government has agreed—for now—not to strip TPS from Afghans and Cameroonians immediately. A joint court filing today (shared below) delays legal action while the admin prepares to terminate protections. 60 days. That’s the clock. Another #AfghanEvac thread
Shawn VanDiver@shawnjvandiver
[5/9/2025 9:56 PM, 33.4K followers, 2 retweets, 10 likes]
In CASA v. @KristiNoem, the Trump administration promised not to revoke TPS until 60 days after they publish the termination in the Federal Register. No rollback yet—but no protection beyond that.
Shawn VanDiver@shawnjvandiver
[5/9/2025 9:56 PM, 33.4K followers, 2 retweets, 9 likes]
Plaintiffs (CASA, supported by legal advocacy groups) agreed to delay court proceedings—but reserved the right to refile 7 days after the admin makes a move to end TPS. Translation: this fight is only paused, not over.
Shawn VanDiver@shawnjvandiver
[5/9/2025 9:56 PM, 33.4K followers, 5 retweets, 19 likes]
Thousands of Afghans and Cameroonians rely on TPS to live and work here legally. Many fled war, worked alongside Americans, and have built lives in the U.S. Ending TPS is a betrayal. This agreement doesn’t stop the harm—it just reschedules it.
Shawn VanDiver@shawnjvandiver
[5/9/2025 9:56 PM, 33.4K followers, 4 retweets, 16 likes]
We’re tracking this closely and will be ready. #AfghanEvac
Beth W. Bailey@BWBailey85
[5/9/2025 10:06 AM, 8.4K followers, 19 retweets, 84 likes]
Latest episode of The Afghanistan Project delves into the latest developments in Pacito v Trump and which USRAP refugees must be processed by the administration Please listen, share, and subscribe: https://youtu.be/7hSwo-x1weE?si=VkhOhIW1tte-ztTf
Jahanzeb Wesa@Jahanzeb_Wesa
[5/11/2025 5:03 AM, 5.8K followers, 8 retweets, 13 likes]
Reports: Taliban has banned chess in Afghanistan, a move that further restricts people’s lives. This decision reflects their ongoing policies of curbing individual freedoms. Ban on chess is just one example of how social & recreational activities are being limited in Afghanistan.
Jahanzeb Wesa@Jahanzeb_Wesa[5/11/2025 4:42 AM, 5.8K followers, 66 retweets, 246 likes]
Today I received reports that Taliban burned musical instruments in several provinces. Taliban should know that Afghan people, especially women, deeply love music. It’s not just art — it’s a voice for freedom. Yet Afghan brave women keep singing and showing their talent to world.
Lina Rozbih@LinaRozbih
[5/11/2025 9:16 AM, 429.2K followers, 6 retweets, 37 likes]
Happy Mother’s Day to all mothers particularly to those in Afghanistan. To the mothers who were the sole breadwinners of their families but were banned from working by the Taliban and now suffer with their children under the rule of an authoritarian regime. To the mothers whose daughters are banned from getting an education and who witness their daughters suffering every day to the extent of witnessing their daughters’ forced marriages or suicide. To all mothers who sacrifices themselves and their wishes and hopes for the happiness of their children! #MothersDay2025
Yalda Hakim@SkyYaldaHakim
[5/11/2025 7:18 PM, 264.7K followers, 645 retweets, 3.3K likes]
1331 days since teenage girls in Afghanistan have been banned from school by the Taliban. Afghan women and girls continue to be pushed out of the public eye in Afghanistan and the world remains silent #LetAfghanGirlsLearn Pakistan
Shehbaz Sharif@CMShehbaz
[5/10/2025 11:09 AM, 6.8M followers, 5.9K retweets, 26K likes]
We thank President Trump for his leadership and proactive role for peace in the region . Pakistan appreciates the United States for facilitating this outcome, which we have accepted in the interest of regional peace and stability. We also thank Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for their valuable contributions for peace in South Asia. Pakistan believes this marks a new beginning in the resolution of issues that have plagued the region and prevented its journey toward peace, prosperity and stability.
Zalmay Khalilzad@realZalmayMK
[5/10/2025 11:55 AM, 263.9K followers, 6.6K retweets, 15K likes]
The conflict with India united Pakistanis in defense of their country. To maintain national @ImranKhanPTI, the country’s dominant political leader must be freed; and the conflict in #Baluchistan, which is becoming a bleeding wound must be addressed. #Pakistan
Zalmay Khalilzad@realZalmayMK
[5/10/2025 9:38 AM, 263.9K followers, 354 retweets, 1.9K likes]
Congratulations to #India and #Pakistan for their ceasefire agreement. The Trump Administration deserves credit for facilitating this agreement. US engagement will be essential to build on what has been achieved and preclude a return to war. #USA @realDonaldTrumpBrahma Chellaney@Chellaney
[5/11/2025 7:54 AM, 288.1K followers, 222 retweets, 771 likes]
The previous U.S. intervention in 1999 resulted in President Clinton averting all-out war by pressuring Pakistan’s PM to withdraw his invading forces from India’s Kargil region. This time, however, US mediation has helped bail out Pakistan from India’s military reprisals without the U.S. acknowledging, let alone seeking to address, the central issue that triggered the latest military hostilities — Pakistan’s asymmetric warfare through terrorist proxies. While ignoring such transborder terrorism, Trump — as if seeking to advance Pakistan’s long-standing agenda — says he will work with both countries "to see if ... a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir." The irony is that Trump leads a broadly India-friendly administration that, after the April 22 terrorist massacre, supported India’s right to defend itself as long as its military retaliation against Pakistan did not escalate to "a broader regional war." In his first term, Trump cut off U.S. security assistance to Pakistan and backed India against Chinese aggression in Doklam (2017) and Ladakh (2020 onward).
Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney
[5/10/2025 2:36 AM, 288.1K followers, 627 retweets, 2.9K likes]
Pakistan is apparently not faring well in the air war. Its air defenses have been unable to fend off major Indian strikes on its military bases, which have left burning infernos. This may explain why there is some reported movement of Pakistani ground forces to the India border.
Ashok Swain@ashoswai
[5/12/2025 2:33 AM, 624.4K followers, 240 retweets, 857 likes]
After India-Pakistan ceasefire, Pakistan’s own conflict erupts - Imran Khan’s supporters carrying out a massive rally in Karachi demanding his release from the prison. India
Narendra Modi@narendramodi
[5/11/2025 4:50 AM, 108.6M followers, 15K retweets, 125K likes]
Best wishes on National Technology Day! This is a day to express pride and gratitude to our scientists and remember the 1998 Pokhran tests. They were a landmark event in our nation’s growth trajectory, especially in our quest towards self-reliance. Powered by our people, India is emerging as a global leader in different aspects of technology, be it space, AI, digital innovation, green technology and more. We reaffirm our commitment to empowering future generations through science and research. May technology uplift humanity, secure our nation and drive futuristic growth.
Dr. S. Jaishankar@DrSJaishankar
[5/10/2025 8:40 AM, 3.8M followers, 29K retweets, 180K likes]
India and Pakistan have today worked out an understanding on stoppage of firing and military action. India has consistently maintained a firm and uncompromising stance against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. It will continue to do so.Dr. S. Jaishankar@DrSJaishankar
[5/10/2025 2:13 AM, 3.8M followers, 6.8K retweets, 59K likes]
Had a conversation with US @SecRubio this morning. India’s approach has always been measured and responsible and remains so.
Dr. S. Jaishankar@DrSJaishankar
[5/11/2025 10:17 AM, 3.8M followers, 1.6K retweets, 16K likes]
Delighted to join the Victory Day celebrations @RusEmbIndia this evening. The importance of victory in the war over fascism in 1945 is indeed a momentous one. The contribution that Indians made to this defining event is well known. Today is an occasion for hope and optimism, underpinned by the conviction that international cooperation is even more important now than before.
Ned Price@nedprice
[5/11/2025 9:40 PM, 89.6K followers, 163 retweets, 415 likes]
36 hours ago, @JDVance declared that escalation between India and Pakistan was "none of our business." 12 hours later, he was on the phone with Indian PM Modi, reportedly after receiving "alarming" intelligence re the potential for further escalation. https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/politics/vance-modi-india-pakistan-intelligence Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney
[5/11/2025 3:53 AM, 288.1K followers, 1.9K retweets, 5.4K likes]
International fallout: By agreeing to abort under U.S. persuasion its Operation Sindoor after just three days of military operations, India is drawing international attention to the Kashmir dispute, not to Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism that triggered the crisis. Take Trump: Without mentioning the core issue of transborder terror, he — playing into Pakistan’s hands — wants to mediate a Kashmir solution. International media outlets, too, are harping on Kashmir, not cross-border terror, as the central issue. Furthermore, an inconclusive Operation Sindoor is reviving India-Pakistan hyphenation, including creating a false equivalency between the victim of transborder terrorism and the perpetrator.
Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney
[5/10/2025 9:28 AM, 288.1K followers, 5.7K retweets, 14K likes]
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has long been an Indian political tradition. Here are just a few examples:
1948: India takes the Jammu and Kashmir issues to the UN and then agrees to a ceasefire when the Indian Army is marching toward victory.
1954: Without any quid pro quo, India surrenders its extraterritorial rights in Tibet and recognizes the "Tibet Region of China."
1960: India signs a treaty benignly reserving over four-fifths of the Indus Basin waters for its downstream foe, Pakistan.
1966: India returns to Pakistan, which launched the 1965 war, the highly strategic Haji Pir, which subsequently becomes a launchpad for Pakistan to infiltrate terrorists into India.1972: At Shimla, India gives away its war gains at the negotiating table without securing anything in return from Pakistan.
2021: After China’s 2020 stealth encroachments on key borderlands of Ladakh, India vacates the strategic Kailash Heights, forfeiting its only bargaining chip in negotiations, and then agrees to Chinese-designed "buffer zones" in some Ladakh areas.
2025: To put an end to Pakistan’s four-decade-long "war of a thousand cuts" through terrorist proxies, India launches "Operation Sindoor," only to halt it three days later without achieving any clear objective.
Habib Khan@HabibKhanT
[5/11/2025 12:57 PM, 250.4K followers, 72 retweets, 566 likes]
India is prepared for a prolonged, limited intensity war to economically exhaust Pakistan. Knowing it can’t endure one, Pakistan relies on full-spectrum deterrence, escalating from artillery to nukes within days. The result is a dangerously unstable deterrence dynamic.
Habib Khan@HabibKhanT
[5/10/2025 3:18 AM, 250.4K followers, 25 retweets, 200 likes]
India hit nine targets in Pakistan after a terror attack. Pakistan claimed to down Indian jets, India denied it and launched drone swarms. Both sides exchanged drones, missiles, and artillery. The U.S. brokered a ceasefire, but it was quickly violated. Now, it’s a stalemate.
Ashok Swain@ashoswai
[5/10/2025 6:53 PM, 624.4K followers, 601 retweets, 3.8K likes]
Which ‘alarming intelligence’ forced the Trump administration to mediate between India and Pakistan and the US Vice President Vance to call Indian Prime Minister Modi? The very likely one could be Pakistan using its ‘full spectrum’ or simply going for the nuclear option. NSB
Chief Adviser of the Government of Bangladesh@ChiefAdviserGoB
[5/11/2025 4:18 AM, 160.4K followers, 27 retweets, 268 likes]
Chief Adviser Urges Swift, Coordinated Action for LDC Graduation DHAKA, May 11 – Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus on Sunday called for urgent and coordinated action from all relevant agencies to ensure Bangladesh’s smooth and timely graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. He made the remarks during a high-level meeting with the LDC Graduation Committee held at the State Guest House Jamuna, where progress on key deliverables was reviewed. “This whole thing is about coordination,” said the Chief Adviser. “We already have the attention and support of investors, funders, and development partners. Now, we must build on the efforts already underway and intensify our collective action to move forward with speed and purpose,” he also added.
Emphasising the importance of institutional readiness, Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus called on all stakeholders to move in unison. “We need a team that functions like firefighters. When the whistle blows, they must respond—fast, efficiently, and without delay and stay at the problem until it is solved,” he said. He further assured that the Chief Adviser’s Office will take an active role in overseeing the process. “The highest office of the government will personally monitor the implementation of all graduation-related initiatives,” he added.
During the meeting, the LDC Graduation Committee identified five priority actions that must be completed on an urgent basis: The actions are:
1. Full operationalisation of the National Single Window with participation from all relevant agencies.
2. Implementation of the National Tariff Policy, 2023 through a clear action plan.
3. Execution of key measures under the National Logistics Policy, 2024, including infrastructure projects.
4. Operational readiness of the Effluent Treatment Plant (ETP) at Savar Tannery Village, and
5. Full-scale operation of the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) Park in Gajaria, Munshiganj.“These aren’t just routine tasks—we need to see them as key steps, each one helps clear the way for our graduation and builds a stronger, fairer economy for everyone”, the Chief Adviser added. Finance adviser Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed, Chief Adviser’s special assistant Dr Anisuzzaman Chowdhury, Chief Adviser’s Special Envoy for International Affairs Lutfey Siddiqi, attended the meeting, alongside members of the LDC Graduation Committee and policy advisers.
Chief Adviser of the Government of Bangladesh@ChiefAdviserGoB
[5/10/2025 10:33 AM, 160.4K followers, 1.2K retweets, 11K likes]
I most sincerely commend Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi of India and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan for agreeing to a ceasefire with immediate effect and to engage in talks. I would also like to express my deep appreciation to President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio for their effective mediation. Bangladesh will continue to support our two neighbours to resolve differences through diplomacy.
Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney
[5/11/2025 10:24 AM, 288.1K followers, 217 retweets, 778 likes]
Islamist authoritarianism: After releasing terrorists and Al Qaeda sympathizers and allowing attacks on minorities to go unpunished, Bangladesh’s unelected interim regime decides to ban all activities of the secular Awami League party that led the country’s independence struggle.
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv
[5/11/2025 11:52 AM, 113.3K followers, 162 retweets, 154 likes]
President Dr @MMuizzu attends the closing ceremony of the Maldives 2.0 Digital Transformation Summit. The summit gathered key stakeholders from government agencies alongside local and international experts to discuss the realisation of the President’s @digitalgovmv vision. This vision aims to revolutionise the public service sector through digital transformation, focusing on citizen-centric e-governance services built on secure and sovereign digital infrastructure. Digital Transformation Maldives 2.0 envisions a journey towards a faster, smarter, Digital First Maldives. #DigitalGovMv #Maldives
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv
[5/11/2025 12:38 PM, 113.3K followers, 75 retweets, 68 likes]
Vice President Uz @HucenSembe attends the closing ceremony of the Maldives 2.0 Digital Transformation Summit. This summit marks a significant step towards the manifestation of the President’s @digitalgovmv vision. With its modern legal framework and robust cybersecurity measures, Maldives 2.0 is expected to drive the nation towards a resilient and diverse economy. #DigitalGovMv #Maldives
Abdulla Khaleel@abkhaleel
[5/11/2025 11:55 PM, 34K followers, 59 retweets, 60 likes]
I express my sincere gratitude to EAM @DrSJaishankar and the Government of #India for extending crucial financial support to the #Maldives through the rollover of the USD 50 million Treasury Bill. This timely assistance reflects the close bonds of friendship between #Maldives & #India and will support the Government’s ongoing efforts to implement fiscal reforms for economic resilience.
Abdulla Khaleel@abkhaleel
[5/11/2025 9:55 AM, 34K followers, 30 retweets, 32 likes]
Today, I met with Maldives Heads of Missions. We discussed strengthening bilateral and commercial cooperation and expansion of consular services, with a focus on better serving our citizens and advancing our national interests.
PMO Nepal@PM_nepal_
[5/11/2025 3:58 AM, 721.8K followers, 2 retweets, 13 likes]
The Rt. Hon. PM KP Sharma Oli responded to the questions raised during the discussion on the government’s policies and programs in today’s meeting of the House of Representatives.
PMO Nepal@PM_nepal_
[5/10/2025 10:33 AM, 721.8K followers, 6 retweets, 29 likes]
Today, in the presence of the Rt. Hon. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, the newly appointed officials of Vidushi Yogmaya Himalayan Ayurved University took their oath of office and secrecy.
PMO Nepal@PM_nepal_
[5/9/2025 5:46 PM, 721.8K followers, 7 retweets, 23 likes]
H.E. Naveen Srivastava, Amb. of India to Nepal, paid a courtesy call on the Rt.Hon. PM KP Sharma Oli today. During the call on, Amb. Srivastava apprised the PM of the ongoing tensions between IND & PAK. In response, PM Oli reiterated Nepal’s unwavering commitment to global peace.
Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba@Arzuranadeuba
[5/11/2025 5:04 AM, 5.7K followers, 64 retweets, 211 likes] We express our profound appreciation to the Government of India for the generous provision of 15 electric vehicles in support of the forthcoming Sagarmatha Sambaad, scheduled to be held from 16 to 18 May 2025. This valuable contribution reflects a shared commitment to environmental sustainability and regional collaboration.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake@anuradisanayake
[5/11/2025 3:02 AM, 151.4K followers, 66 retweets, 411 likes]
I warmly welcome the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Sparing innocent lives and choosing dialogue over conflict is true statesmanship. As a neighbour and friend, Sri Lanka stands ready to support lasting peace and regional stability through constructive engagement.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake@anuradisanayake
[5/10/2025 2:13 PM, 151.4K followers, 13 retweets, 122 likes]
Honoured to inaugurate the State Vesak Festival 2025 in Nuwara Eliya, alongside the Maha Nayaka Theros. Under the theme "Associate with noble friends of virtue," we begin a week of spiritual growth and unity. Let’s celebrate Vesak with compassion and wisdom.
Namal Rajapaksa@RajapaksaNamal
[5/11/2025 9:16 AM, 435.7K followers, 4 retweets, 54 likes]
Deeply saddened by the tragic bus accident in Gerandi Ella, Ramboda, claiming lives and leaving many injured. My thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families. Wishing a swift recovery to those hospitalized and urging authorities to extend all necessary support. #SriLanka #Ramboda #Tragedy
Namal Rajapaksa@RajapaksaNamal
[5/11/2025 9:54 PM, 435.7K followers, 10 retweets, 73 likes]
Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Politburo convened and observed a moment of silence to remember those we lost due to the actions during the Aragalaya, including former MP Amarakeerthi Athukorala.
M U M Ali Sabry@alisabrypc
[5/11/2025 11:43 PM, 8.2K followers, 48 retweets, 207 likes]
To the Government with love, and a word of caution. I was raised in a fiercely leftist home. My father, an LSSP activist, worked closely with Chomondeley Goonawardena, and through him I grew up admiring icons like NM, Colvin, Lesley, Viviene and Bernard. They were honest, educated, and driven by a dream of a just, equal, and united Sri Lanka. But over time, I learned something, honesty and idealism alone won’t build the society we aspire to. Ideological rigidity, especially in economics, can be a burden. Around the world, the countries that have succeeded haven’t clung to doctrine. They’ve embraced pragmatism, ruthless efficiency, and adaptability. Governance is about results, not performances, not purity. And that’s where I come to you, not as a critic, but as someone who genuinely hopes this government will succeed. Because Sri Lanka cannot afford another failed experiment.Let me be clear: the NPP has already achieved a few important milestones:
You won power without appealing to racism
You have promoted national unity
You are generally perceived as honest
You have internal party discipline and policy consistency
These are refreshing and admirable.
But the machinery is slowing. Governance is stalling. Why? Because public officials are terrified to take decisions. The cases of Mayadunne and Gammanpila weren’t just about individuals, they sent a chilling message to the entire bureaucracy, “Make a decision and you might be next.” That message is paralysing the system. No decisions. No movement. No growth.
Yes, fighting corruption is essential. But there is a right way to do it: Build strong institutions. Fund them. Train them. Demand accountability. But stop turning every investigation into a political show. Micromanaging prosecutions, giving daily media soundbites, or using investigations as propaganda will not only fail (as seen under Yahapalanaya) but also backfire. Politicized prosecutions don’t hold up in court, and more importantly, they discourage governance.
You were elected to deliver, not just investigate. Sri Lanka is out of time. Our per capita GDP grew from $1,200 to $4,000 between 2005–2015. Since then? Stagnation. We’ve lost a decade. And if this momentum slips now, it may not come back. Recent local government election results have made one thing clear, public patience is wearing thin. The next warning won’t be a warning. It will be a verdict.
So what can be done? Focus on the low-hanging fruits:
Get files moving in ministries
Ease SME regulations
Digitize public services
End petty corruption
Deliver visible results in daily life
Governance is not only about justice and laws, it’s about delivery, jobs, income, investment, services, stability. Yes, we were in government too. We made mistakes. But we also took difficult, unpopular decisions to restore macroeconomic stability. We paid a political price for it. That’s democracy. But today, Sri Lanka needs your government to succeed, for everyone’s sake. I learned by experience, governance is totally different ball game from politics, particularly opposition politics of criticism. Hope you self reflect with humility the message from the electorate in the recently concluded local elections. In the ultimate analysis, every thing depends on the delivery on the economic fronts and traditionally patience of our electorate will run out sooner than later.
Hence, it is now or never. Get your act together. Vision without action is waste of time. So lead with humility. Govern with urgency. And never forget, ideology is not a substitute for delivery. With hope, A fellow Sri Lankan who still believes in progressive positive change, not rhetoric. Central Asia
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[5/10/2025 2:30 AM, 216.6K followers, 8 retweets, 32 likes]
In the framework of agenda in #Moscow, a meeting was held between President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev and President of #Russia Vladimir #Putin. They discussed further strengthening bilateral relations in priority areas.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[5/9/2025 7:26 AM, 216.6K followers, 7 retweets, 14 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev attended Moscow’s 80th anniversary celebrations of #WorldWarII victory. Following the Victory Parade on Red Square, he joined other leaders to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, honoring the millions of soldiers, including Uzbeks, who sacrificed their lives for Victory.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[5/9/2025 7:19 AM, 216.6K followers, 4 retweets, 12 likes]
As part of the festive events in Moscow, President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev met informally with several leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, Tajikistan’s Emomali Rahmon, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Vietnam’s To Lam, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, and Palestine’s Mahmoud Abbas.
Navbahor Imamova@Navbahor
[5/10/2025 10:18 AM, 24.3K followers, 3 retweets, 7 likes]
Foreign exchange reserves of Uzbekistan surpass $49 billion as securities triple
Navbahor Imamova@Navbahor
[5/10/2025 10:17 AM, 24.3K followers, 2 retweets]
Uzbekistan and ADB to launch 23 new projects worth $3.6 billion{End of Report} To subscribe to the SCA Morning Press Clips, please email SCA-PressOfficers@state.gov. Please do not reply directly to this email.