epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Wednesday, November 13, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Taliban score successes with embassy closures, COP attendance (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [11/12/2024 4:14 PM, Joris Floriti and Guillaume Gerard, 1.4M, Neutral]
Afghanistan embassies in Britain and Norway loyal to the pro-Western authorities ousted by the Taliban in 2021 discreetly shut down this autumn, as the West seeks a more pragmatic approach to the country’s Islamic rulers.

The embassy of Afghanistan in London closed on September 27, following the mission in Oslo which shut down on September 12.

Both were run by staff loyal to the former authorities of the country, who were ejected from Kabul in the Taliban’s lightning offensive in August 2021, a defeat seen as one of the biggest military debacles for the West.

And now a senior Taliban official is even attending the COP29 UN climate talks which began on Monday, joining world leaders and top Western officials at the conference in Baku.

Analysts say such moves represent acceptance of the de-facto political reality in Afghanistan and the need to work with its rulers on issues including migration, the fight against drugs, and security.

Embassies like those in London and Oslo, in something of a diplomatic quirk, had carried on their work after the Taliban takeover, issuing visas and carrying out other consular work in the name of the Afghan state.

But this summer the Taliban government announced that it "no longer took responsibility" for such passports and visas, adding that it had cut all ties with these embassies.

In mid-September, the Taliban government’s foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi also accused them of "enormous corruption" and issuing "false documents" with increased prices, allegations denied by several officials of the former missions contacted by AFP.

With the notable exceptions of Britain and Norway, most Western governments, which still do not recognise Taliban rule, did not budge.

"Norway acknowledges that it is the authorities who de facto control the state apparatus in Afghanistan and who, according to international law, can recall personnel from Afghan missions abroad," the Norwegian foreign ministry told AFP.

Afghan ambassador to the UK Zalmai Rassoul said on social media in September the embassy would close "at the official request of the host country."

"This decision was not made by the UK government," a spokesperson for the UK foreign office said.

"The state of Afghanistan decided to close the Afghan embassy in London and dismiss its staff."

London acknowledges that there is "no alternative to engaging pragmatically with the current administration of Afghanistan," added the spokesperson.

But the move by London was still surprising, coming from the country which after the US formed the second-largest contingent of the NATO coalition that drove the Taliban from power at the end of 2001 in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

In 20 years of deployment, 457 British soldiers were killed in Afghanistan. Ten soldiers from Norway, also a member of this coalition, were killed.

"The word we use is betrayal," said Nazifullah Salarzai, president of an association representing Afghan ambassadors who worked for the former authorities.

"We have been betrayed by some of our partners in the international community, I’m not shying away from this."

But a European diplomat, who previously worked in Kabul, said a change in strategy by the West towards the Taliban authorities was necessary.

"Confrontation led nowhere," said the diplomat, asking not to be named, adding that the only outcome had been a "deterioration" of relations accompanied by a severe erosion of rights of Afghan women.

Western countries are forming de-facto relations with the Taliban, regarding the group as "a security actor" against the Islamic State (IS) branch in Afghanistan and preventing the country from "becoming a source of insecurity, a kind of threat," said a former Afghan security official who has taken refuge in Europe, asking not to be named.

Afghans opposed to the Taliban fear that Germany, where more than 500,000 Afghans live, will follow in the footsteps of London and Oslo.

"The federal government has so far made no changes to the status of Afghan representations in Germany" and does not consider the Taliban regime to be "legitimate", a German diplomatic source told AFP, asking not to be named.

But Berlin negotiated with the Taliban, with Qatar acting as an intermediary, to allow the expulsion of 28 Afghan convicts from Germany to their country of origin at the end of August, according to Der Spiegel.

Such expulsions could continue in the future via Uzbekistan, a country neighbouring Afghanistan that signed a migration agreement with Germany in mid-September, press reports have indicated.

Meanwhile, Matiul Haq Khalis, director general of Afghanistan’s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), told AFP in Baku his team was invited to attend the UN climate talks by Azerbaijani authorities.

The Afghan delegation is in Baku as "guests" of the hosts, not as a party directly involved in the negotiations.

"When you lose wars, you only have bad solutions," said Gilles Dorronsoro, an expert on Afghanistan.

"The decision of London and Oslo is a gift for the Taliban but also based on reality," he added. "There is no alternative to the Taliban regime."
Pakistan
Pakistan’s Punjab Launches Plan to Curb World’s Worst Smog (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [11/13/2024 4:07 AM, Faseeh Mangi, 5.5M, Neutral]
The government of Pakistan’s most polluted province has launched a new policy to address a protracted smog crisis, after the world’s worst air shuttered schools and saw 900 people seek hospital treatment in a single day.

Punjab has introduced a 10-year policy to reduce emissions from various sectors in a phased manner, Senior Provincial Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb said in a post on X. The measures include starting the nation’s first vehicle certification scheme, fuel quality checks and distributing new farming machinery to prevent crop residue burning.

Pakistan and North India suffer from a chronic air pollution crisis that worsens during colder months. Last week, more than 900 people were admitted to the hospital in a single day in Punjab’s capital Lahore. In New Delhi, a survey found that nearly half of the respondents’ families have sought medical help for respiratory problems in the past three weeks.

On Wednesday morning, sensors managed by the Swiss monitor IQAir recorded an air quality index of 447 in Lahore, well beyond the level of 50 that’s deemed safe. The Pakistani city was the world’s most polluted for most of November, forcing the local government to close schools among other measures.

“This is nothing new and a similar plan was presented last year as well,” said Dawar Butt, co-director at the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative. “There are no benchmarks and no costing has been done on how to achieve this.”

The group also wrote a letter to the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this week outlining three solutions which would lead to a cumulative 45% emissions reduction. They called for an immediate shut down of all brick kilns, polluting industries and a crackdown on vehicles that fail to meet emission standards.
Growing pollution in Pakistan’s Punjab province has sickened 1.8M people in a month, officials say (AP)
AP [11/12/2024 7:50 AM, Babar Dogar, 26099K, Negative]
Worsening air pollution sickened an estimated 1.8 million people in Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province in the past month, health officials said Tuesday, as schools across the province were ordered to close for five days to protect children’s health.

Punjab with a population of 127 million has been struggling to combat smog since last month.

“Over 1.8 million people visited hospitals and private clinics in the smog-hit districts in Punjab in the past 30 days, and most of them had been suffering from respiratory-related diseases and burning of eyes,” said Ahsan Riaz, a spokesman for the health department.

Earlier, officials said that tens of thousands of people were treated at hospitals in recent weeks, but Riaz said Tuesday that the number of people affected by smog is much higher, and hospitals are flooded with such patients.

The closure of schools in the entire province came more than a week after officials shut schools in 18 smog-hit districts there. Toxic smog has shrouded Pakistan’s cultural capital of Lahore and 17 other districts in Punjab since October.

It forced the government last week to close all parks and museums for 10 days.

Authorities have urged people to avoid unnecessary travel, as a record wave of smog is causing respiratory-related diseases and eye infections.

The latest developments came a day after the U.N. children’s agency warned that the health of 11 million children in Pakistan’s Punjab province was in danger because of air pollution that experts say has become a fifth season in recent years.

According to the Environmental Protection Department in Punjab, Multan — a city in the province — remained the most polluted city on Tuesday, with air quality index readings of about 700. Anything over 300 is considered hazardous to health.

Authorities have ordered the mandatory wearing of face masks, but that has been widely disregarded. The government has also said that it is looking into methods to induce artificial rainfall to combat the pollution.
Xi Jinping faces heat over failure to protect Chinese workers overseas (Financial Times)
Financial Times [11/12/2024 7:45 PM, Kathrin Hille and Humza Jilani, 14.2M, Neutral]
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is under heightened pressure to better secure his country’s interests in volatile regions around the world after a bomb attack by Pakistan separatists last month claimed the lives of two Chinese engineers.

With total Chinese investments estimated at US$62bn, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is the largest cluster of projects under Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative but a spike of violence by the Balochistan Liberation Army is putting that commitment at risk and fuelling debate over Beijing’s failure to get to grips with the problem.

While Chinese investors are protected by a mix of Pakistan government and Chinese private security, the latter is hindered by Pakistan’s ban on armed guard services by foreign security contractors and Beijing’s tight grip on military and policing functions, even overseas.

“I think this is the tipping point where Beijing is demanding something more from Islamabad in terms of a Chinese role in providing security,” said Alessandro Arduino, an expert on BRI security and private security contractors.

“The evolution in Pakistan will also be a litmus test for Chinese private security companies around the world, and how Beijing wants to secure its citizens and assets worldwide.”

Islamabad has allocated big and growing forces to guarding China’s massive investments. Two special security divisions with more than 15,000 personnel in total and a naval unit stationed at Gwadar port protect CPEC projects and Chinese workers throughout Pakistan. Provinces have also provided special police units. Part of the cost of this protection is covered by China’s defence ministry, according to two people familiar with the situation. But it has not produced the security China is hoping for.

“We don’t trust that more Pakistani soldiers will keep us safe . . . we would prefer it was Chinese,” said one Chinese businessman, who works on a project in the province of Punjab but has been in the country for almost a decade. “Many Chinese want to leave, there’s not as much opportunity and the security is bad.”

Those concerns were further underscored when a Pakistani security guard shot and injured two Chinese workers in Karachi last week.

Beijing is not content with local security either. “The central government issued an internal directive to ‘let Chinese take care of the security of Chinese’,” said Zhou Chao, a Chinese executive who managed security services for the Lahore Metro Orange Line project after China Railway Group and Chinese arms exporter Norinco won the tender in 2015.

Chinese private security companies have typically followed state-owned enterprises to guard their construction and resource projects abroad. Some observers expected them to grow into the equivalent of US military contractor Blackwater or Russian mercenaries Wagner Group, but Chinese experts say they are held back by a lack of support from Beijing and complex regulation.

Pakistan bans foreign security contractors from providing armed guard services. “As a solution, we would station Chinese security officers at the project company, two at a time, and hire 400 to 500 local guards,” said Zhou, who worked for China Cityguard at the time but has since moved to China Soldier Security Group.

Other executives said they relied on Chinese security engineers to develop a security plan, handle incidents, conduct background and document checks, gather intelligence and hire local guards for armed patrols.

The October blast, the latest in a string of attacks, has fuelled discontent with the current security set-up. “Our government has been discussing with Pakistan whether they can allow Chinese security companies in but have been explicitly rebuffed several times,” said a Chinese executive.

In a joint statement with Pakistan during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit on October 15, China “stressed the urgent need to adopt targeted security measures in Pakistan to jointly create a safe environment for co-operation between the two countries”. Last week, Chinese ambassador Jiang Zaidong called it “unacceptable” that Chinese citizens had been attacked twice within six months. He warned that security had become a “constraint to CPEC”.

While overall Chinese finance and investment engagement under the BRI increased last year, according to the commerce ministry, it dropped 74 per cent in Pakistan. Frontier Services Group, the security contractor backed by Blackwater founder Erik Prince, said in its 2023 annual report that due to the instability in Pakistan, the Chinese government had encouraged employees of Chinese companies in Pakistan to return home. This has led to delays and abortion of projects.

“The government is failing to comprehensively solve this security problem. [Our] risk consultants in Pakistan warned us about certain things, which later really happened, and I don’t know why our government could not prevent those,” said an executive at a large Chinese security company.

A big hurdle is the belief of the Chinese Communist party — which came to power through armed revolt — that it must retain a strict monopoly on military and policing functions. Beijing keeps tight restrictions on private security companies at home including a ban on carrying arms. Although existing legislation does not explicitly cover the contractors’ overseas expansion, it has hampered them.

According to Cheng Xizhong, a South Asia expert at Chinese think-tank Charhar Institute and former diplomat and defence attaché who also advises Chinese private security contractors, the Chinese embassy in Islamabad has a police counsellor telling security companies in Pakistan what should and should not be done.

“Some people see Chinese security contractors who go abroad as proxies for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army,” said a security company executive. “But unlike international military contractors that thrive on government contracts . . . we don’t get any . . . support.”

The latest uptick in casualties could add to pressure on Beijing to update legislation regulating private security companies. Amendments are expected to include clearer reference to overseas operations and be guided by an international code of conduct for the industry, according to scholars consulted on the draft amendments.

“A large portion of our overseas investment flows into” countries that it deems high risk, said the founder of one Chinese private security contractor. “So it really is high time that our government empower us to expand there.”
Police officer arrested over deadly 2023 suicide bombing at Pakistan mosque (AP)
AP [11/12/2024 7:27 AM, Staff, 31638K, Negative]
A police officer has been arrested in connection with facilitating a suicide bomb attack at a mosque on the premises of a police compound in northwest Pakistan.

Provincial police chief Akhtar Hayyat announced the arrest of police constable Mohammad Wali at a news conference in Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, on Tuesday.

Wali, who worked with the Peshawar police, is alleged to have shared a map of the compound with the suicide bomber who carried out an attack on the mosque on Jan. 29, 2023, killing 101 people, mostly police officers, and wounding 250 others.

Hayyat said Wali had joined the outlawed Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban, which orchestrated the attack, in 2023. The arrest was made in a raid on Monday and Wali had confessed to his role in the attack, the chief added.

Police last year released CCTV images from the blast scene showing the suicide bomber in a police uniform approaching the site pushing a motorcycle, giving the impression it had broken down. Hayyat said it is alleged that the uniform had been provided by Wali.

The assault on the mosque inside the police facility was one of the deadliest attacks on security forces in recent years.
A bus carrying wedding guests falls into a river in northern Pakistan, killing 18 (AP)
AP [11/12/2024 12:42 PM, Staff, 31638K, Negative]
A bus carrying about two dozen wedding guests fell into the Indus River in northern Pakistan on Tuesday, killing at least 18 people, officials said.

It happened in the Gilgit Baltistan region as the bus was heading to Chakwal, a city in Punjab province, government spokesman Faizullah Faraq said.

He said so far only one woman had been found alive and was being treated at a hospital. Police said rescuers will resume searching for missing passengers on Wednesday.

Police also said it was unclear what caused the crash, and officers were yet to record the lone survivor’s statement.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari offered condolences and asked rescuers to expedite efforts to find missing passengers.

Road accidents are common in Pakistan due to poor infrastructure and disregard for traffic laws and safety standards. In August, 36 people were killed and dozens of others were injured in two separate bus crashes.
Bus falls into Indus river in Pakistan, killing 14 (Reuters)
Reuters [11/12/2024 1:12 PM, Mushtaq Ali, 37270K, Negative]
A bus carrying 27 passengers fell into the Indus river in northern Pakistan on Tuesday, killing 14 people, according to a statement from the Gilgit Baltistan authorities.

Twelve of the remaining passengers are missing, and one passenger has survived the accident with injuries, the statement from the authorities said.

The accident occurred due to speeding, and the driver losing control of the vehicle, according to the authorities.

According to local broadcaster Geo, the bus was part of a wedding procession headed toward Pakistan’s Chakwal district when it fell into the river from Telchi bridge at the limits of Diamer district.

Fatal road accidents are common in Pakistan, where traffic rules are rarely followed and roads in many rural areas are in poor condition.

Earlier in August, two bus accidents in northeast and southwest Pakistan killed at least 34 people.
India
Visibility drops in parts of Delhi as pollution surges (Reuters)
Reuters [11/12/2024 11:15 PM, Sakshi Dayal, 37270K, Negative]
A toxic haze enveloped India’s national capital on Wednesday morning as temperatures dropped and pollution surged, reducing visibility in some parts and prompting a warning from airport authorities that flights may be affected.

Delhi overtook Pakistan’s Lahore as the world’s most polluted city in Swiss group IQAir’s live rankings, with an air quality index (AQI) score of more than 1,000, considered "hazardous", but India’s pollution authority said the AQI was around 350.

Officials were not immediately available to explain the variation.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the pollution had reduced visibility to 100 metres (328 feet) in some places by around 8 a.m. (0230 GMT).

"Low visibility procedures" were initiated at the city’s Indira Gandhi International Airport, operator Delhi International Airport Limited said in a post on social media platform X.

"While landing and takeoffs continue at Delhi Airport, flights that are not CAT III compliant may get affected," the authority said.

CAT III is a navigation system that enables aircraft to land even when visibility is low.

The IMD said the city’s temperature dropped to 17 degrees Celsius (63 degrees Fahrenheit) on Wednesday morning from 17.9C on Tuesday, and may fall further as sunlight remains cut off due to the smog.

Delhi battles severe pollution every winter as cold, heavy air traps dust, emissions, and smoke from farm fires set off illegally in the adjoining, farming states of Punjab and Haryana.

Previously, authorities have closed schools, placed restrictions on private vehicles, and stopped some building work to curb the problem.

The city’s environment minister said last week that the government was keen to use artificial rain to cut the smog.

Pakistan’s Punjab province, which shares a border with India, has also banned outdoor activities, closed schools, and ordered shops, markets and malls to close early in some parts in an effort to protect its citizens from the toxic air.
Toxic smog smothering India’s capital smashes WHO limit (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [11/12/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 1.4M, Negative]
Residents of India’s capital New Delhi choked in a blanketing toxic smog Wednesday as worsening air pollution surged past 50 times the World Health Organization’s recommended daily maximum.

Many in the city cannot afford air filters, nor do they have homes they can effectively seal from the misery of foul smelling air blamed for thousands of premature deaths.

Cooler temperatures and slow-moving winds trap deadly pollutants each winter, stretching from mid-October until at least January.

At dawn on Wednesday, "hazardous" pollutant levels in parts of the sprawling urban area of more than 30 million people topped 806 micrograms per cubic metre, according to monitoring firm IQAir.

That is more than 53 times the World Health Organization recommended daily maximum of fine particulate matter -- dangerous cancer-causing microparticles known as PM2.5 pollutants that enter the bloodstream through the lungs.

By midday, when air usually is at its best, it eased to about 25-35 times above danger levels, depending on different districts.

The city is blanketed in acrid smog each year, primarily blamed on stubble burning by farmers in neighbouring regions to clear their fields for ploughing, as well as factories and traffic fumes.

But a report by The New York Times this month, based on air and soil samples it collected over five years, revealed the dangerous fumes also spewing from a power plant incinerating the city’s landfill garbage mountains.

Experts the newspaper spoke to said that the levels of heavy metals found were "alarming".

Swirling white clouds of smog also delayed several flights across northern India.

The India Meteorological Department said that at least 18 regional airports had a visibility lower than 1,000 metres (1,093 yards) -- dropping below 500 metres in Delhi.

India’s Supreme Court last month ruled that clean air was a fundamental human right, ordering both the central government and state-level authorities to take action.

But critics say arguments between rival politicians heading neighbouring states -- as well as between central and state-level authorities -- have compounded the problem.

Politicians are accused of not wanting to anger key figures in their constituencies, particularly powerful farming groups.

City authorities have launched several initiatives to tackle pollution, which have done little in practice.

Government trucks are regularly used to spray water to briefly dampen the pollution.

A new scheme unveiled earlier this month to use three small drones to spray water mist was derided by critics as another "band-aid" solution to a public health crisis.

The WHO says that air pollution can trigger strokes, heart disease, lung cancer and other respiratory diseases.

It is particularly punishing for babies, children and the elderly.

A study in The Lancet medical journal attributed 1.67 million premature deaths to air pollution in the world’s most populous country in 2019.
Indian political parties woo women voters with cash handouts amid economic woes (Reuters)
Reuters [11/13/2024 3:47 AM, Krishna N. Das and Saurabh Sharma, 5.2M, Neutral]
Indian political parties are increasingly targeting women voters with fiscally draining handouts of cash around the time of elections to counter wider worries about inflation and the lack of jobs, analysts say.

A greater turnout of women voters in the past decade has reversed a trend of men easily outnumbering women. Political parties have competed to attract them, even as inflation hit a 14-month peak in October and unemployment stays high, at 8.9%.

Regional governments run by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party and the opposition are offering or planning such efforts to lure about a fifth of India’s estimated 670 million women, the economic research division of Axis Bank says.

"This is a substantial burden on the exchequer," its chief economist, Neelkanth Mishra, said in a report. "Where is the funding coming from? Some from higher deficits."

Budgeted deficits for the current fiscal year for nearly all Indian states unveiling handouts for women were higher than five years ago, with many cutting capital expenditure to fund the populist measures.

Axis estimates the handout programmes by more than a third of India’s 36 states or federal territories amount to an annual spend of 2 trillion rupees ($23.70 billion), or 0.6% of GDP.

Many announcements of such handouts have come around the time of national or local elections over the past year.

For example, the poor opposition-ruled eastern state of Jharkhand, which was voting on Wednesday in the first of two phases, more than doubled its monthly payout for 5 million women last month to 2,500 rupees ($30), after Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promised 2,100 rupees.

India’s main opposition Congress party, part of the alliance ruling the state, said political parties often benefit from promises ahead of elections, even if they do not always deliver.

"Women or people coming from economically backward sections are seen as a soft target by political parties," said its spokesperson, Udit Raj.

Voting in local elections next week is the richest state of Maharashtra in western India, ruled by a BJP alliance that has been giving 1,500 rupees to women from low-income families since August, but the opposition has promised to double that figure.

BJP spokesperson Shazia Ilmi said the party has focused on women’s welfare under Modi, through efforts such as provision of subsidised cooking gas and building toilets for them.
"The opposition making announcements on handouts is nothing but an attempt to replicate what the BJP has done for the women of this country," she said.

Fiscal slippage in the states could ultimately reflect in the national budget, brokerage Elara Securities has warned.

But there are also positive effects from putting more cash in the hands of women in a traditionally patriarchal society.

"The categories seeing stronger incremental demand may be food, conveyance, durable goods and health," Mishra said. "For the targeted population, these schemes boost incomes by 5% to 40%."

While payouts, including those for women, partly helped the BJP unexpectedly retain power in the northern state of Haryana recently, political analysts expect it to struggle to keep Maharashtra.

Results for the two upcoming elections are expected on Nov. 23.

After his BJP lost its parliamentary majority in general elections from April to June, Modi has relied on smaller allies to stay in power for a third straight term.
India’s top court bans ‘bulldozer justice’ as punishment (BBC)
BBC [11/13/2024 4:35 AM, Cherylann Mollan, 67.2M, Neutral]
India’s Supreme Court has said that authorities cannot demolish homes merely because a person has been accused of a crime and has laid down strict guidelines for any such action.

The ruling comes in response to a number of petitions seeking action against authorities using demolition as a punitive measure against those accused or convicted of crimes.

"The executive [the government] cannot become a judge and demolish properties. The chilling sight of a bulldozer demolishing a building reminds one of lawlessness where might was right," the Supreme Court said on Wednesday.

It also directed authorities to give sufficient time to the affected person to challenge the order or vacate the property.

The ruling comes against a backdrop of a spate of instances, where authorities in states, particularly governed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have used demolition as a tool to punish people accused of crimes.

The reason cited is illegal construction but experts have questioned the logic and say there is no legal justification for doing this.

While victims do also include Hindu families, such demolitions have mostly targeted Muslims, especially after religious violence or protests, opposition leaders and activists say.

The BJP denies the allegation and state chief ministers have linked demolitions with their tough stance on crime.

Is bulldozer punishment trampling justice in India?
During the hearing on Wednesday, the Supreme Court used strong words to criticise the practice.

"Such highhanded and arbitrary actions have no place in a constitutional democracy," it said, adding that officials "who took the law in their hands" should be held accountable.

The court then issued guidelines, which make it mandatory for authorities to give a 15-day notice to an occupant before the alleged illegal property is demolished.

The notice should explain the reasons for demolition. If the accused does not respond to the notice within 15 days, authorities can proceed with the action but they would be required to film the process, the court said.

It also warned that violating these guidelines would amount to contempt of court.

The court has strongly criticised extrajudicial demolitions throughout the hearing.

Earlier this month, it observed that demolishing properties merely because a person was accused of a crime was "simply unacceptable under rule of law".

It also observed that citizens’ voices could not be silenced by the threat of demolition.

While the Supreme Court’s guidelines can be seen as a positive step towards preventing such demolitions from becoming the norm, observers point out that implementing the order will be key in ensuring the practice stops.

Human rights group Amnesty International praised the ruling, saying that though it has come late, it is a welcome move in upholding the rights of the people.

"This is a big win in ending the deeply unjust, widespread, unlawful and punitive demolitions, mostly targeting the minority Muslim community, by the Indian authorities which have often been peddled as ‘bulldozer justice’ by ruling party political leaders and media," the organisation said in a statement.
India asks states to consider setting up nuclear power plants, list power utilities (Reuters)
Reuters [11/12/2024 9:29 PM, Staff, 37270K, Positive]
India’s federal power minister on Tuesday asked the states that are away from coal resources to consider setting up nuclear-based power plants, besides identifying and listing of the power utilities to meet investments to support growing power demand.

The Indian government in its federal budget this year had proposed to partner with private players to develop small nuclear reactors to increase the amount of electricity from sources that do not produce carbon dioxide emissions.

States should consider setting up nuclear power plants at the sites where coal-based thermal power plants have completed their life, Manohar Lal, the country’s power minister, told states as per a government statement.

India’s stringent nuclear compensation laws have hampered talks with foreign power plant builders such as General Electric (GE.N) and Westinghouse.

The country, which currently has about 8 gigawatt of nuclear capacity, aims to increase it to 20 GW by 2032.

The minister also asked the states to identify and list its power utilities in the country’s stock exchange to meet increasing investment demand in the power sector as well as improve the transmission system to add more renewable capacity.

India has pledged to achieve a net zero carbon emission target by 2070 and has a target of 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030.
India’s Leap of Faith in Afghanistan: Tango With the Taliban (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [11/12/2024 11:15 AM, Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, 1198K, Neutral]
India has, for all practical purposes, joined the small number of nations that have discovered the necessity of doing business with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Sans official recognition, which under the circumstances is only of ceremonial importance, New Delhi’s "pragmatic policy" is bound to be seen as a source of legitimacy for the Islamic Emirate. New Delhi, in return, hopes to regain its lost leverage in Kabul.

The evolution of New Delhi’s policy has been slow, incremental, and yet, unidirectional as India acclimatizes itself to the winds of change in Kabul. All along, it has carefully underscored the concern for the common Afghans and provided humanitarian assistance. At the core of its efforts, however, is the strategic objective of safeguarding its national security interests amid the geopolitical flux that has once again reduced Afghanistan to a territory whose potential instability evokes fear but little genuine concern, and even less affirmative action.

In June 2022, less than a year after the Taliban capture of power, New Delhi made a dramatic policy U-turn with the deployment of a technical team to Kabul to "oversee the disbursement of humanitarian aid." The decision strategically reactivated the embassy, which had been shut after the Taliban seized power on August 15, 2021. Following that, Indian officials have made periodic visits to Kabul. New Delhi has also received Afghan officials for administrative, governance, and technical training modules.

In the latest development, an Indian official team, lead by Joint Secretary in the Ministry of the External Affairs (MEA) J. P. Singh, made a two-day visit to Kabul on November 4 and 5. The team called on Taliban Acting Defense Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob and Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, among others, including the UNAMA and international NGO personnel, members of the business community, and former Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

It is unusual for an MEA official to meet a defense minister, but not unsurprising given the circumstances. The MEA spokesperson alluded to the team’s discussions in a briefing on November 7. He said that the team held discussions on India’s humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan and also discussed the use of the Chabahar port in Iran by Afghan traders.

Three days after the visit, the Taliban officials claimed that the Afghan consulate in Mumbai has started issuing passports to Afghan nationals in India. An Indian media report also referred to a Taliban request to appoint its nominee as the "second secretary" in the Mumbai consulate. This is under active consideration by the MEA. Meanwhile, the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi and the two consulates in Mumbai and Hyderabad have quietly passed into the hands of pro-Taliban officials, with the unofficial understanding that they would continue to fly the erstwhile civilian regime’s flag and would refrain from openly promoting the Islamic Emirate. Strategically, this arrangement could change in a matter of months, as New Delhi gets more comfortable in doing business with the Taliban and in the absence of any other viable alternatives in Afghanistan.

The perception that New Delhi’s moves are not out of compulsion but a matter of strategic choice is bound to raise concerns in the West and the United States. Akin to its independent and robust trade, strategic, and diplomatic ties with Russia, which India has forcefully defended, this policy readjustment toward the Taliban could be interpreted as New Delhi breaking ranks with the West. The perspective in New Delhi, however, is different.

"What else can New Delhi do?" is the rhetorical question circulating through the policy circles in New Delhi.

The situation is dynamic. The Taliban have made repeated overtures to India to do more in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, nearly every other regional country, including China and Russia, has embraced the Islamic Emirate. Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States is bound to push Afghanistan further into the U.S. policy wasteland. This compounds India’s problems, which an isolationist policy is unlikely to address. Under the circumstances, not doing business with the Taliban would be self-limiting. Additionally, the Taliban’s worsened ties with Islamabad may have created a fresh window of opportunity for New Delhi to reinvent itself in Kabul.

Multiple "pro" factors are shaping India’s policy toward the Taliban. The "cons," including the Taliban’s violation of the rights of girls, women, and minorities, remain important to consider. But, as the statecraft of the government in New Delhi suggests, India may be able to influence the Taliban through its strong ties, rather than being a sulking idealistic power. At the end of the day, it could still be a trial-and-error method. But there are strong indications that New Delhi is taking a giant leap of faith.
India: Shutdown in Manipur after security forces kill 10 (Deutsche Welle)
Deutsche Welle [11/12/2024 7:54 AM, Staff, 16637K, Negative]
Life came to a standstill in parts of Manipur state in India’s northeast on Tuesday, and schools and businesses remained closed after ten armed men were killed in a gunfight with security forces a day before.

The district administration imposed prohibitory orders on Tuesday to maintain law and order, while local ethnic organizations called for an 11-hour "total shutdown" in protest against Monday’s killings.

Roads in the region remained empty as people stayed indoors.

What happened on Monday?

According to security forces, the violence began on Monday when they retaliated against "armed militants" attempting to attack a police post near Jiribam district town, resulting in a 45-minute shootout.

"A search of the area resulted in the recovery of 10 bodies of armed militants as well as sophisticated automatic weapons," the police said in a statement.

The state’s Indigenous Tribal Leaders’ Forum contested the police version, saying that those killed were local village volunteers of the Hmar ethnic group and were patrolling to protect their community after a recent attack on a tribal woman.

The Hmar Students’ Association condemned the incident, calling it a "premeditated massacre" by security forces in collaboration with "Meitei militants.".

What is happening in Manipur?

The state of Manipur has been the scene of violent clashes between the predominantly Hindu Meitei community and the mostly Christian Kuki community since May last year.

Following the violence, stemming from tensions over land rights and economic benefits, Manipur is now divided into two ethnic zones — a valley controlled by the Meiteis, surrounded by Kuki-dominated hills.

On Monday night, heavy gunfire was also reported in the periphery of the hills and the Imphal Valley.

Since May 2023, over 250 people have been killed in the violence and more than 60,000 people displaced.
Life in Ladakh Along the Disputed Sino-Indian Border (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [11/12/2024 7:54 AM, Staff, 1198K, Neutral]
On the occasion of Diwali (October 31), a Hindu Festival of Lights, Indian and Chinese troops exchanged sweets at several border points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In October, an agreement was reached on disengagement of troops and patrolling along the LAC in eastern Ladakh, a breakthrough to end the over four-year stand-off between India and China. The 2020 border clashes between the two neighbors saw rare hand-to-hand combat between the Indian and Chinese soldiers along the LAC. Subsequently, thousands of soldiers were deployed on both sides of the border.

Militarization of the region has had an adverse impact on the semi-nomadic communities such as the Changpa people on the Indian side of the border.

Toiling amid the barren mountains, under the shadow of India-China border tensions, the lives of border residents were divested of peace and any hope for a settlement between the two neighbors. They have lost access to grazing land. The Chinese soldiers have reportedly taken over territories that, until a few years ago, were patrolled by the Indian Armed Forces. These pastures were easily accessed by the Indian farmers in the border region but in the last few years have shrunk dramatically. It remains to be seen whether the recent rapprochement between India and China can ameliorate the lives of the border residents.

Due to its location, Chushul was at the center of the 2020 border conflict. It is a remote village in the Durbuk block of the Changthang region in eastern Ladakh. The LAC with China runs approximately 5 miles east of Chushul. The village is located at an altitude of 14,270 feet, making it one of the highest villages in India. Changthang Plateau is inhabited by the Changpas, a semi-nomadic Tibetan ethnic community that is known for rearing sheep, yaks, horses, and goats for Pashmina.

After August 29-30, 2020 border skirmishes along the LAC, both women and men at Chushul village voluntarily supported the Indian Armed Forces by ferrying water and other essential commodities to the forces deployed at the Black Top mountain. Sonam Angmo, who was president of the Mothers’ Association in Chushul during the 2020 border tensions, said, "After the [August] 29th-30th border skirmishes, several villagers from Chushul – both men and women – including 20 members of the Mothers’ Association ferried essential supplies for the Indian Armed Forces to the Black Top for five to six days voluntarily."

Changpa Women Since the 1962 War Between India and China

Women’s role in supporting the IAF during the latest clash marked a dramatic change from earlier decades. As she sipped on a hot cup of butter tea served by her daughter, Sonam Angmo said, "During the 1960s, Changpa women were far behind men. Their key roles were cattle-herding, looking after children, weaving nambu [traditional dress] and household chores."

Similarly, the ex-councillor of Chushul explained, "In the 1960s and ‘70s, women were almost invisible in the society. They were illiterate and not aware of their rights."

In the context of the 1962 war and the 2020 border conflict between India and China, he said, "Women had no role in the 1962 war. While men from the village would support the army, carrying ration and ammunition to the army base, women were scared even of the silhouettes of the army personnel. During the 2020 border tensions, however, both men and women were actively ferrying essential commodities for the Indian Armed Forces at Black Top.

"Besides, starting at least 15 years ago, more and more girls began going to school. Today, most parents are supportive of their girls’ education. Now, in both the blocks of Changthang – Durbuk and Nyoma – the majority of the women are literate."

Angmo agreed. "In 1960s and 1970s, overall there was a low literacy rate. In the 1980s and 1990s, there were minuscule positive changes in the level of women’s education," she said. Several women in the village pointed out that after 2000, particularly in the last 15 years, the educational status of women has improved.

Angmo noted other changes as well: "From the year 2000, women also began working at the army camp – helping to build bunkers, cleaning and other labor work." The Mothers’ Association, she explained, "was established in 2005 for the upliftment of women in Chushul. It focuses on supporting the economically weaker sections in the village and resolving disputes between couples. It supports religious activities and encourages young females to dress traditionally."

"Amma [Sonam Angmo] became a member of the Mothers’ Association in 2005 and its president for two years in 2019. She is illiterate but people in the village look up to her due to her experience and wisdom," explained a young girl from the Changpa community who translated my entire conversation with Angmo.

I asked whether Angmo’s daughters are literate. The young girl replied, "Illiterate herself, Amma realized the importance of education. While her elder daughter, who is married, did not go to school, her younger daughter has completed graduation from Leh [the capital of Ladakh]."

After a few minutes, Angmo’s daughter entered the room with a hot meal of rice and lentils. She spoke about her future plans to pursue post-graduate education from Punjab (one of the states in India).

The Government High School in Chusul extends from nursery school to the 10th grade, with a total of 108 students: 55 boys and 53 girls. The school is completely residential from the 4th to 10th grade, with 89 students (45 boys and 44 girls) in this age range.

All the girls I interacted with, particularly from the 8th to 10th grade, mentioned that both their parents would support them in their future academic endeavors and career pursuits once they complete their schooling in Chushul.

Padma Chuskit, who is in the 9th grade, has five siblings: one brother and four sisters. Her elder sister studied till 10th grade and others are in school. "My parents are very supportive of my education. After school, I want to join a cabin crew," she said.

Tashi Dolkar has two brothers and four sisters. "One sister is married, another is in the EJM college at Leh, the third one is studying commerce at a college in Chandigarh [Punjab] and the fourth one, who has studied till 7th grade, is a nomad."

As for her own ambitions, "I want to join the ITBP [Indo-Tibetan Border Police]. My mother is very encouraging," she said with a smile.
Why online scams are on the rise in India (Deutsche Welle)
Deutsche Welle [11/12/2024 11:36 AM, Mahima Kapoor, 16637K, Neutral]
Shatabdi Biswas woke up to a call on a smog-filled December morning in Delhi in 2022. Within the next two hours, despite being no stranger to the internet, she lost nearly all the money her bank accounts held.

The 37-year-old content writer was a victim of a "digital arrest" scam that has caught national attention in recent months. The crime involves a scam artist posing as a law enforcement official, often a police or customs officer, who informs an unsuspecting victim that their identity has been used in illegal activities.

Over the next few hours, the victim is manipulated and kept on a fake "arrest" call until they end up handing over their savings.

Biswas is one among millions to fall for this kind of scam in India.

"What bothered me most was that I had sent them the money myself," she said, sitting in a cafe as she revisited the traumatic morning nearly two years ago.

"That’s how expertly they twist your mind beyond reason. They use your fear against you until you send all your money over.".

The Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C), a central agency that operates under the Ministry of Home Affairs, reported an average of 7,000 daily cybercrime complaints in just the first four months of 2024.

This includes not just digital arrest scams but also several other types of online frauds, such as job, investment or romance scams and online phishing. Victims are estimated to have lost about 17.5 billion rupees (€192 million, $207 million) as a result.

"What’s worrying is that the high rate of complaints is not the full picture. Many don’t report it because they aren’t aware of procedures, or they’re ashamed of getting fooled," said Arun Kumar Verma, an official in the cybercrime department of Delhi police.

‘Sorry, this was a scam’

In 2022, an unsuspecting Biswas received an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) call, which directed her to what she believed was the FedEx customer service.

The person on the other end informed her that a package containing marijuana, expired passports, and fake credentials was being sent to Taiwan using her identity.

They even gave her the correct details of her Aadhaar card, an identity document the Indian government issues, which is linked with banking and other digital services.

"They put me in touch with a Mumbai customs officer who had all my details. He even had a Marathi accent. Nothing seemed out of place," Biswas told DW, adding that this kind of elaborate scam was less heard of a couple of years ago.

The fake officer directed her not to speak with anyone else during the "investigation" and spun the web of a crime organization that stole other people’s identities to smuggle goods to Taiwan.

"He sent me articles and images with headlines about a criminal named Gerold. He told me there were three accounts under my name being used for illicit activities," she said, "Next thing I know, I was sending him money from my real bank accounts as part of an official procedure to prove I operated them.".

After receiving nearly half a million rupees (€5,500) from Biswas, the fake officer said he would call back. "They did call me back. But to say, ‘Sorry, this was a scam.’".

Stories like Biswas’s have become common. Digital financial frauds saw a five-fold jump between March of 2023 and 2024, with money robbed amounting to about 14.57 billion rupees (roughly €162 million, $175 million), according to data provided by India’s central bank.

Why have scams taken India by a storm?

A team of international researchers recently published a World Cybercrime Index, with India ranking 10th on the list, emerging as a hub that "somewhat specializes in scams.".

While there is little to no data to clarify why scams have exponentially increased in India, Ridhi Kashyap, a researcher part of the team that created the index, took an educated guess. Kashyap believes digital literacy is lagging behind the digitalization wave sweeping India.

"People are doing important things in their lives on their phones, but digital literacy has not caught up," she told DW.

Government policies and the COVID-19 pandemic have catapulted Indian masses towards a quick digitalization of payments and key public infrastructure.

The value of transfers in India made through Unified Payment Interface (UPI), an instant payment system, grew from 1 trillion rupees (€10.9 billion, $11.2 billion) in the financial year 2017-18 to over 200 trillion rupees (around $2.4 trillion) in the financial year 2023-24, according to data released by India’s Ministry of Finance.

Women are especially vulnerable to scams, Kashyap said, adding that India has a large digital gender gap. "Women are much less likely to own a mobile phone. When they do own them, they are less likely to have exclusive ownership, and they often rely on family members to help them navigate. This means lower levels of confidence and higher vulnerability," she said.

Another key factor in the Indian context is the large number of young people who are skilled in technical education but lack meaningful employment, Kashyap. "We see this in Russia and Ukraine as well," she said.

Youtuber Jim Browning, who has been hacking into the computers and surveillance systems of professional scam centers mainly in India, said he often asks perpetrators why they scam people.

"The majority say they have no choice. I have seen some of their CVs on their computers. These are well-educated graduates in many cases," Browning, who doesn’t use his real name, told DW.

Another glaring reason, according to Browning, is the low rate of law enforcement. "I know there is a lot of corruption. There have been cases where I reported a scam center, and instead of a raid, the opposite happened. The ring leaders have erased the evidence, packed up and left," he said.

Can the scam surge be controlled?

A police station dealing with cybercrime in the capital, New Delhi, was flooded with scared yet hopeful scam victims when DW visited a few days ago.

"This is how it is every day," said a junior officer. "We are flooded with cases and that’s even after we transfer the ones involving over 10 million rupees to the headquarters," said the official, who asked not to be named.

In a cabin, senior officer Arun Kumar Verma poured over documents that needed to be signed to release recovered funds to some of the luckier victims.

"Cybercrime is not like a regular burglary. There is no perpetrator present at the crime scene. Just a phone number and an account number which could belong to anyone," he said, explaining how many scammers use proxy bank accounts.

"On the other hand, there is a clear digital trail so I can tell you there are a lot of cases where we successfully retrieve the money," he pointed out.

However, a lack of resources — both personnel and otherwise — poses a serious problem. "We take cases according to the location of the victim’s residence. But criminals can sit with phones and laptops anywhere in India, which means traveling for days. We don’t have the time for that," Verma said.

The officer also warned of a new wave of investment scams targeting Indians from within the country and abroad.

"Our real problem begins when the money trail leaves the country," Verma said, explaining that this makes recovery far more difficult.

While most scams hinge on the victims’ lack of knowledge and fear, this new wave bets on something else: the greed of the victims.

"If you look at the victims of investment scams, it’s mostly young, educated people who want to get rich instantly," he said. "Their greed makes them easy targets.".

A more careful Shatabdi Biswas still gets scam calls regularly. "Sometimes I pick up the call and yell at them. Take out my frustration," she said.

She now ensures her bank accounts hold only the minimum cash she requires and invests the rest out of reach of scammers. "It’s been a lesson.".
NSB
Climate change is a global challenge. Bangladesh has answers. (Christian Science Monitor)
Christian Science Monitor [11/12/2024 1:51 PM, Stephanie Hanes and Sara Miller Llana, 658K, Neutral]
When Cyclone Remal gathered force off the Bay of Bengal in late May, Jahidul Bepari had everything to fear.

Living in a makeshift home of tin and discarded planks of wood on the outskirts of Sarankhola, along the banks of the Baleshwar River, the teenager and his family had lost their livelihoods from extreme weather so many times they don’t keep count.

This time, though, the storm was particularly fierce – one of the most intense to hit coastal Bangladesh, and the millions of people who live there, in recent years.

“It started with drizzling rain; then the wind started to become heavy with heavy rain. Even though it was a low-tide time in the morning, the water level began to rise more and more. I became very afraid. I was standing on the road in front of our home,” he says. “As the road is basically a riverbank, and erosion happened, I fell in the water. I am a very good swimmer; I came back.”

His family immediately sought shelter. But after three days of pounding rain and flooding as the river breached its banks, they lost their house, which was crushed and blown away by the wind. They lost their stores of rice and a small well they used for fish farming. The 30 pigeons that they bred and sold for the equivalent of $2 apiece flew away. They lost their chicken and ducks, too. But when he is asked about the storm, his thoughts first race to the family’s goat. She was pregnant when she drowned.

“We’re really struggling with the post-Remal situation,” he says.

Low-lying Bangladesh offers a glimpse of the world’s future

Situated at the head of the Bay of Bengal, low-lying Bangladesh is considered one of the most climate-affected countries in the world – exposed to cyclones, heat waves, and floods. It is also, according to many climate experts, a glimpse of the world’s future.

This is partly because of what the country reveals about extreme weather. But Bangladesh also demonstrates what that extreme weather means for young people like Jahidul, and how governments, families, and individuals are adapting and transforming all aspects of life in the face of spectacular climatic uncertainty that has spared no part of the world.

“What we’re seeing over the last couple of years is extremes that we don’t expect,” says Rebecca Carter, director of climate adaptation and resilience for the World Resources Institute’s global office. “Five years ago, people were saying, ‘You want to find a safe place? Move to the Pacific Northwest. ... It’s not going to get too extreme there.’ We know that’s not true.”

That is why for much of 2023, the Monitor traveled around the world to talk to young people – the generation coming of age on a warming planet, the ones who will live through the more powerful cyclones, the deeper floods, and the longer droughts. We called this the Climate Generation, and it remains in our thought – including now as this year’s global climate summit, known as COP29, is occurring in Baku, Azerbaijan.

What we found was that from Portugal to the United States, from Namibia to Barbados, these young people are reimagining how to live, eat, work, and find purpose. They are suing their elected leaders to demand change, building climate advocacy from the ground up, building small businesses harnessing cleaner energies, creating food systems that are more sustainable, and shifting their lifestyles to fit this global challenge.

They have no choice.

Extreme weather events cause billions of dollars in damage

Since we published the seven-part series, the world has watched more communities struggle through weather-related disasters, forever changing in the face of them.

As we started writing this article, flash flooding swept away roads and cars in the U.S. state of Connecticut after what meteorologists called a 1-in-1,000-year storm. We began editing it as Hurricane Helene, which had intensified rapidly because of warmer than ever water in the Gulf of Mexico, devastated the southeastern U.S., flattening whole communities with its floods and landslides.

Those were just two of the dozens of superlative weather events causing billions of dollars in damage around the globe.

Heat waves across South Asia, from Bangladesh to the Philippines, killed hundreds, if not thousands, of people, shuttering schools across the region. Two Indian cities in Andhra Pradesh exceeded all previous records with temperatures logged at 46.3 degrees Celsius, or 115 degrees Fahrenheit. A heat dome in Mexico, a naturally occurring phenomenon that scientists say is intensified by climate change, killed more than 100 people, as well as wildlife, across the affected region.

This summer, extreme heat reached even the rarest corners of the world. Several communities in the far north of Canada, above the Arctic Circle, recorded their hottest temperatures ever. And wildfires raged from Greece and Turkey to Canada’s Jasper National Park.

It was the type of summer that many of the young people we interviewed said they both feared and expected to become more common.

Those fears and expectations are rooted in climate science. We know that Earth is getting warmer. We also know that much of this increase in temperature is because of human behavior, such as burning fossil fuels and sending heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. And because of the greenhouse gases we have already put into the air, we know the heating will continue throughout the lives of young people like Jahidul.

Jahidul was a young teen when we met him last year, and he did not talk about climate change as an issue, or even as a concept. But he shared the story of the last time his house had washed away, four years ago in a ferocious nighttime storm. He still had trouble sleeping, he said. When he saw cracks in the riverbank, he knew something terrible might happen.

A year later, Jahidul’s experience seems even more reflective of what young people globally might face during their lifetimes.

From Bangladesh to London to Florida, a shared challenge

For sure, at first glance, Jahidul’s daily experience looks nothing like that of a teenager in the U.S. or Europe. Like a quarter of his nation, he lives below the poverty line. And that affects how harshly his family is impacted by severe weather. As many who work in the field of climate disasters will explain, the impact of climate change has less to do with supercharged weather events themselves than with the intersection between extreme weather and vulnerability.

But it is no longer just the poorest communities bearing the intense consequences of climate change. Jahidul and his family and his country have one particular collection of risk factors. But vulnerabilities exist across geography and socioeconomic levels, from the shores of Bangladesh to the mountains of North Carolina.

Those on the more progressive side of the political spectrum tend to focus on those risks that come with socioeconomic disparity, whether geopolitical or domestic. Lower-income Americans of color, for instance, are more likely to suffer the effects of urban heat islands – those paved areas of cities where temperatures spike higher than in surrounding areas. They’re also less likely to have the financial means to deal with that heat. Lower-income countries, such as Namibia and Barbados, have less money in government coffers either to improve infrastructure ahead of extreme weather events or to repair after them. This is why many policymakers in the Global South, led by Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, are pushing for a reimagining of the international financial system.

But those living in London or Florida or Vermont are not free from vulnerability, either. And while it’s certainly true that those with fewer means have less ability to shield themselves when heat waves or floods or wildfires hit, it’s also true that nobody can avoid these extremes, which are hitting at unexpected times and in unexpected places.

Experts are quick to say that doesn’t mean the situation is hopeless. Humans still have a lot of agency regarding how much the planet will warm, and a lot of science suggests that every fraction of a degree matters when it comes to extreme weather events and sea level rise. But equally important, a growing number of experts point out, is how societies will adjust to prepare for this new, warmer reality.

Bangladesh holds lessons for the rest of the world

Bangladeshis have shown resilience at every level. The country has been cited as one of the most climate-adaptive countries in the world, helping keep thousands more alive today during natural disasters than in previous generations.

“The first step should always be [to consider], What are my vulnerabilities now and in the future?” says Libby Zemaitis, senior manager for resilience programs and policy at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. “And that can be done at a community level, at a resident level, at a business level.”

Jahidul’s family knew the cyclone was coming. An intercom system, run by the government’s disaster preparedness committee, warned them two days prior. Such committees operate across the country, run by locals trained to identify and monitor weather risks and spread the news via cellphone, via intercom, or any way they can.

After Jahidul fell in the river, his family fled to the local elementary school where he studied until grade five. That school serves as the local shelter during natural disasters. It is one of thousands that the government runs as part of a cyclone preparedness program for the 40 million people who live across a 710-kilometer (441-mile) coastal plain. This climate resilience program has received international accolades – and has saved thousands of lives. That preparedness training has increased here in Sarankhola district since 2007, after Cyclone Sidr killed some 3,500 people.

Jahidul’s family stayed for almost three weeks. After all, the river had flooded their land, and they had nowhere to go until the water receded. His was one of 150,000 homes destroyed in the wake of Cyclone Remal. But he, and his family, had survived.

“The U.S. and Bangladesh are very different countries, but Bangladesh is well regarded as a leader in climate change adaptation,” Dr. Carter says. “They have no choice.”
Bangladesh: How inclusive is the democratic restart? (Deutsche Welle)
Deutsche Welle [11/12/2024 8:41 AM, Tasmiah Ahmed and Darko Janjevic, 16637K, Negative]
Months after ousting Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh is looking forward to fresh elections, which will produce a new government that could take over from the interim administration led by Muhammed Yunus.

The interim leader and Nobel Prize winner has pledged to conduct "vital reforms" and then hold a free, fair, and inclusive vote in the South Asian country.

But despite pledges of inclusivity, many Bangladeshis are deeply angry with Hasina’s Awami League (AL) and oppose the prospect of it simply rejoining the country’s politics as any other major party.

Hasina’s opponents blame the ousted leader for the deadly violence that claimed hundreds of lives earlier this year.

At least some members of the interim Cabinet seem to share this sentiment. The Yunus-led government is still engaged in dialogue with major parties to ensure a fair election, but it said it would exclude groups it labels "fascist" or allied with such factions.

In October, the chief adviser’s office of the interim government announced that the authorities would prevent the AL and similar parties from engaging in political activities. Later, the chief adviser’s special assistant said they would put obstacles in front of Hasina’s party, and in late October, the Yunus government banned the AL’s youth wing, the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), and labeled it a "terrorist organization.".

Interim leaders pressured from all sides

The Yunus’ government rests on a wide but fragile alliance of various political parties, minority groups and student protesters who bore the brunt of the political violence. With the election date yet to be determined, they can ill afford to alienate any part of their base, especially the masses that pushed out the Hasina government.

The scope of the anti-AL anger was highlighted once again when the office of their coalition partner, the Jatiya Party, was set on fire in late October. And this weekend, activists of the BNP party — the AL’s main rival — joined supporters of Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party and student protesters in violently preventing an AL rally in Dhaka.

At the same time, however, BNP General Secretary Mirza Fakhrul criticized the signals coming from the interim government about banning Hasina’s party.

"Why exclude the Awami League from the elections if we genuinely aim for democracy?" he asked.

Does Yunus speak for the people?

Political scientist Sabbir Ahmed told DW that the interim government was interpreting terms like "level playing field for fair elections" in ways that serve its own interests.

"This government, having taken power without a popular mandate, does not represent the will of the people," he told DW, pointing out that the July-August uprising was largely urban-focused.

"Regardless of what the interim government claims, it cannot establish a democratic environment for fair electoral competition if it excludes the Awami League," he added.

AL eager to move forward

Unsurprisingly, Hasina’s allies also oppose the statements hinting at their ban. Former Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud told DW that AL was eager to cooperate with other political parties to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy, adding that Bangladesh must eliminate politics of hatred, denial, and revenge .

He also accused the interim government of delaying the election without adequate justification, seemingly aiming to retaliate against the AL.

"Excluding the Awami League — which is backed by almost half of the population — from the election would not attract an inclusive process," he added. "Such an election would likely face rejection from both the public and the international community.".

Germany wants an investigation, then reconciliation.

Meanwhile, signals from outside Bangladesh also seem to indicate a desire for internal rapprochement. Last week, German Ambassador Achim Tröster told The Daily Star, a Bangladeshi English-language newspaper, that reconciliation would be necessary for a peaceful future.

"What it needs is to change one’s mind and to cast away the shadows of a bloody and revengeful past," he said.

At the same time, he acknowledged that the reconciliation would not be possible without investigating and acknowledging the truth regarding the deadly unrest.

"In order to achieve reconciliation, we need to hear the word sorry and an apology for the crimes and mistakes that have been committed. I may be wrong, but so far, I unfortunately have not heard it here," the German diplomat added.

The head of the center-right BJP, Andaleeve Rahman, also told DW that AL owes an apology to the public.

"Hasina’s party is facing a leadership crisis and can only move forward in politics if they acknowledge their responsibility and express remorse for the deaths that occurred during the July-August revolution," he said.

Commenting on the recent arson of the political office of the Jatiya Party, he described it as unacceptable but said Hasina’s allies deserved the public backlash they are currently facing, as they, too, have betrayed the people.
Sri Lankan president seeks party win in parliamentary election to help him push his economic reforms (AP)
AP [11/12/2024 11:37 PM, Bharatha Mallawarachi, 456K, Neutral]
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is looking to consolidate his party’s power in Thursday’s parliamentary election to help him implement his election pledges to solve the country’s economic woes and foster good governance.

The Marxist-leaning Dissanayake won the presidential election on Sept. 21 in a victory that marked a rejection of the traditional political parties that have governed the island nation since its independence from British rule in 1948.

However, Dissanayake’s failure to secure more than 50% of the vote has fueled concerns over his party’s outlook in the parliamentary election. His National People’s Power party must increase its votes significantly — from the 42% it won in the presidential election — if it is to secure a minimum of 113 seats to take control of the 225-member Parliament.

Dissanayake, while campaigning for his party’s candidates, has called on voters to help elect them to Parliament so he won’t need to rely on a coalition to enact the reforms he promised.

“A strong government should be formed to rebuild the country. A government that is unshakable in the Parliament should be established. And to do that, Parliament should be filled with elected members from our party,” Dissanayake said to cheers at a rally on the final day of campaigning on Monday.

The election comes at a decisive time for Sri Lankans, as the island nation emerges from its worst economic crisis, having declared bankruptcy after defaulting on its external debt in 2022.

The country is now in the middle of a bailout program with the International Monetary Fund and debt restructuring with international creditors nearly complete.

Dissanayake had said during the presidential campaign that he planned to propose significant changes to the targets set in the IMF deal, which his predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe signed, saying it placed too much burden on the people. However, he has since changed his stance and says Sri Lanka will go along with the agreement and not seek to change it.

He told his supporters on Monday that an IMF team would arrive in Sri Lanka two days after the election to complete a third review of the agreement.

“By the end of January or the beginning of February, we will complete that task. By then, we will be able to secure considerable stability in the economy,” he said.

He said the government will present its first budget in February next year.

The government expects the budget to include proposals to reduce taxes and increase salaries for government servants.

Political analyst Jehan Perera said Dissanayake “has been careful and played it safe by continuing with most of the policies set by his predecessor. He has been sensitive to the concerns of the business community that any deviation from the IMF agreement could cause the economy to unravel.”

“The president has been careful not to rock the boat or sink it, as the opposition warned,” he added.

Sri Lanka’s crisis was largely the result of economic mismanagement combined with fallout from the pandemic, which along with 2019 terrorism attacks devastated its important tourism industry. The coronavirus crisis also disrupted the flow of remittances from Sri Lankans working abroad.

The government also slashed taxes in 2019, depleting the treasury just as the virus hit. Foreign exchange reserves plummeted, leaving Sri Lanka unable to pay for imports or defend its currency, the rupee.

Sri Lanka’s economic upheaval led to a political crisis that forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign in 2022. Parliament then elected Wickremesinghe to replace him.

The economy was stabilized, inflation dropped, the local currency strengthened and foreign reserves increased under Wickremesinghe. Nonetheless, he lost the election as public dissatisfaction grew over the government’s effort to increase revenue by raising electricity bills and imposing heavy new income taxes on professionals and businesses, as part of the government’s efforts to meet the IMF conditions.

Dissanayake’s National Peoples’ Power party has gained popularity since his election victory, while the opposition parties are divided.

“Those who have been reassured by the smooth transfer of power and the NPP’s restraint in its first two months in power are likely to vote in his favor. This number is likely to see an increase over the number who voted in his favor at the presidential election,” said Perera, the political analyst.

Ruwan Sanjeewa, 36, who works as a laborer, joined one of the final rallies held by Dissanayake’s party in the town of Gampaha, 34 kilometers (21 miles) north of Colombo and said he would vote for the NPP.

“See the plight of the country today. Traditional political parties who ruled this country over the last few decades have failed to deliver what they promised. We are now in a very pathetic situation. So, I want to give a chance to NPP. Let’s see what they will do. I am hopeful the NPP might do something good for this country,” he said.
Sri Lanka’s first transgender candidate hopes to break political, social barriers (Reuters)
Reuters [11/13/2024 1:34 AM, Uditha Jayasinghe, 37270K, Neutral]
Chanu Nimesha is contesting Sri Lanka’s parliamentary election on Thursday as the first openly transgender candidate, hoping to forge a more inclusive and tolerant political culture on the South Asian island.

Transgender people are estimated to make up about 1% of Sri Lanka’s 22 million people, according to Equal Ground, a local civil society group. They frequently face social rejection, lack legal protection and have almost no representation in political parties.

Nimesha, who is contesting from Kegalle - about 80km (50 miles) east of Colombo - said she was the first transgender person to run for a seat in the 225-strong parliament and that her message of social justice had been well received.

"I’m not concerned about winning or losing," she said, sitting in her one-bedroom flat. "But it is important for me to be present in this space, to be seen, to inspire others like me. I want to help everyone, not just my community."

Nimesha, 49, is contesting for the Socialist Party of Sri Lanka and one of about 8,000 candidates in the poll, which comes less than two months after Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake won September’s presidential election.

High debt, shortsighted economic policies and tourism revenue losses from the COVID-19 pandemic plunged Sri Lanka into its worst financial crisis in more than seven decades in 2022.

Nimesha was one of thousands who marched in Colombo that year to occupy then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s office and residence, forcing him to flee the country and later resign.

Supported by a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, Sri Lanka has made a tentative recovery but a quarter of the population remains in poverty.

Nimesha raises funds for her activism and political campaign by working as a quantity surveyor at a nearby construction site. She is also an amateur actress, composes music and has written a book set to be published in the next two months.

Born in the southern town of Galle, Nimesha was 14 when her father was killed in a political insurgency in 1989. She eventually moved to Colombo and is no longer in touch with her conservative family.

"I understand their decision to cut ties with me," she said, her makeup lined up neatly on a table next to a bookcase filled with books on socialist and leftist ideology. A guitar lies on the bed nearby.

"This is why I’m so passionate about the need for inclusiveness. We need to see the humanity in each other and accept each other. Only then can we build a society where we all belong."
Central Asia
Azeris, Kazakhs, Uzbeks Agree to Develop, Export Clean Energy (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [11/13/2024 5:19 AM, Zulfugar Agayev, 37270K, Neutral]
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have signed an agreement to develop green energy and supply it to Europe via cables to be laid under the Caspian and Black seas.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev hailed the deal signed on the sidelines of the COP29 climate summit in Baku as “historic,” according to a statement carried by the state news agency Azartac.

Separately, the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan signed an “implementation program” for the development and transmission of green energy, Azerbaijan’s Energy Ministry said in an emailed statement. It gave no additional details.
Kazakhstan Again Misses OPEC+ Target for Cutting Oil Output (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [11/12/2024 11:32 AM, Julian Lee, 27782K, Negative]
Kazakhstan lowered oil production sharply in October, with maintenance work closing one of its main fields, but still failed to meet its OPEC+ output cuts target.

The Central Asian nation pumped 1.29 million barrels a day in October, according to figures published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. That was down by 292,000 barrels a day from September, but was still almost 90,000 barrels a day above its output target, which had been reduced to compensate for earlier over-production.

The government in Astana is now likely to come under increased pressure when OPEC+ oil ministers meet on Dec. 1 to set production plans for next year. So too is that of Iraq, the group’s other big over-producer.

OPEC+ has been forced twice to delay plans to begin easing some voluntary output cuts, amid lackluster prices and dwindling prospects for demand growth. The start date for putting barrels back into the market has been pushed to the beginning of January from October. Several analysts have said it may have to be delayed further amid concerns about oversupply next year.

The planned closing of the country’s second-biggest field, Kashagan, for maintenance work that was scheduled to run from the start of October through the first week of November was meant to provide a painless route to meeting the country’s commitment.

But the work started late and finished earlier than planned — helpful for the companies that have poured billions of dollars into the much troubled project, but not so good for the country’s commitment to its OPEC+ partners, who are trying to limit supplies in order to prop up prices.

The situation may become increasingly uncomfortable for Kazakhstan, where operator TengizChevroil is expected to see the first fruits from an expansion of the giant Tengiz field in the second quarter of 2025. The project, estimated in March to cost $48.5 billion, will add about 260,000 barrels a day to Kazakhstan’s production capacity.

That’s oil that both the government and the foreign investors will want to pump. But doing so would set Kazakhstan on a collision course with the rest of the OPEC+ group and make its production target even more difficult to reach.

Kazakhstan’s energy ministry didn’t comment when contacted about its October over-production. Production figures are those reported from seven secondary sources used by OPEC to monitor the output accord.
Kazakhstan: Seals are dying en masse in the Caspian Sea (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [11/12/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Neutral]
As the COP29 conference gets underway in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, along the western coast of the Caspian Sea, an environmental tragedy is unfolding along the eastern shore, where hundreds of dead seals are washing up in Kazakhstan.

Kazakh authorities have sent samples from dead seals to labs for testing. So far, the cause of the die-off has not yet been determined. Over 825 dead seals have been counted to date, according to media reports.

According to Asel Baimukanova, a specialist at the Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology, all the carcasses examined so far seemed well-fed, and more than half of the females were pregnant. “This suggests that they were young and viable before they died,” Baimukanova wrote on Instagram. “The deaths were apparently unnatural and sudden.”

The expert reported that every autumn seals migrate to the northern part of the Caspian Sea to reproduce. The deaths have occurred during this period of concentration in northern waters, she noted. Kazakh authorities estimate the overall Caspian seal population to be in the 300,000 range. But Assel Tasmagambetova, founder of the Central Asian Institute for Ecological Research (CAIER), says there could be fewer than 100,000 Caspian seals remaining.

According to environmental officials, it could take months to make initial conclusions about the causes of the die-off. Environmental specialists in Mangistau say water samples taken from areas where concentrations of dead seals have been found did not turn up any “anomalous deviations”.

One working theory is that the seals became ensnared in poachers’ fishing nets. Cuts and traces of nets were found on some of the carcasses. “Not all, but some [of the dead seals] definitely suffered because of this,” the Lada news outlet quoted Andrey Rutskoy, a specialist from the local fisheries inspectorate. He indicated that poaching in the Caspian by fishermen using powerful motorboats poses a challenge for inspectors and enforcement authorities.

This marks the second time in two years that Caspian seals have died en masse under mysterious circumstances. In November 2022, more than 170 carcasses were found along the Kazakh coast, and a month later, about 2,500 dead seals washed up in Russian territory. In 2023, Kazakh officials determined that viral infections were the root cause of the seal deaths, adding that the animals’ immunity systems had been compromised by pollution. Russian health officials attributed the mass deaths to “natural factors,” citing poisoning by gases that emanated from under the seabed.
Indo-Pacific
How India, Pakistan and China Might Cooperate on Air Quality (Forbes)
Forbes [11/12/2024 10:20 PM, Saleem H. Ali, 98958K, Neutral]
The thick layer of smog that is now visible from space across the Indo-Gangetic Plain reminds us that the estimated annual cost of air pollution to India alone is around $95 billion. Furthermore, The Lancet Health Commission estimated in 2021 that around 1.6 million Indians die prematurely from air pollution every year — this is more than double the number that die from water pollution. Pakistan’s statistics are likely similar though we have less data available. Recent research has shown that air pollution can also increase crime rates significantly in Pakistan. Lahore, the city where I spent much of my childhood and where many of my family still reside, has now been ranked as the most polluted city in the world for the past two weeks. India’s capital Delhi is competing with Lahore for this infamy as last year it had a run of several weeks of being ranked accordingly. There is endless blame-gaming between the two nuclear rivals on the causes for this pollution.

The pollution spike is typical of the post-monsoon season, from October to December, when atmospheric changes concentrate pollutants. After monsoon rains, pollutants aren’t washed away, and as temperatures drop, the atmospheric boundary lowers, trapping emissions in a smaller space. Stagnant weather conditions and low wind speeds have further exacerbated the situation this year. Yet, the root cause of smog is air pollution itself across the most densely populated part of the Indo-Pak subcontinent. If there was less pollution, the weather conditions would not have the same impact. Air quality is what needs to be tackled rather than just blaming the matter on weather conditions. There are several sources of pollution and all need to be targeted simultaneously to have palpable impact.

Pollution levels are heightened by behaviors tied to seasonal changes, creating a proverbial "perfect storm." Farmers burn crop residue, and construction activities resume post-monsoon, increasing emissions. Fires in landfills and vehicle exhaust also contribute significantly. A 2019 study attributed 42% of Delhi’s black carbon pollution during winter and autumn to crop burning, while PM2.5 from crop fires can peak at 50–75% on the worst days. Fireworks during Diwali exacerbate this pollution with metal ions released into the air which are harmful to health, though their actual contribution to overall quality is not as large as often presented in Pakistan. Pollution audits in Pakistan suggested that the transport sector shared a higher burden than the crop burning.

India and Pakistan are signatories to the Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia, which was adopted in 1998 in Malé, the capital of the Maldives. However, this declaration has not been implemented beyond some data sharing on air quality and occasional seminars and training programs. Yet this time Maryam Nawaz, the Chief Minister of Pakistan’s Punjab province, expressed a desire to engage with her Indian counterpart, Bhagwant Singh Mann, to address the pressing issue of air pollution affecting the region. Recognizing that air pollution transcends borders, Nawaz proposed a regional climate conference in Lahore to facilitate dialogue and develop coordinated strategies. This approach underscores the necessity for cross-border cooperation in tackling environmental challenges that impact public health and the economy.

While the proposal for collaboration is promising, it faces challenges due to the historically strained relations between Pakistan and India. Perhaps what is needed is a third important regional player with vast experience in urban pollution control — China. The Chinese have invested in coal power plants in the country, that are also being blamed for some of the pollution. Yet, the country is also a world leader in clean technologies and has done an amazing job in cleaning up urban air quality. China’s "War on Pollution," launched in 2013, prioritized reducing Particulate Matter less than 2.5 micrometers (or PM2.5) in urban air — which is the main constituent of smog. Between 2013 and 2020, the average PM2.5 concentration across 74 major cities in China dropped by about 42%. A study published in 2021 found that air pollution-related deaths in China declined by 60% from 2013 to 2020, largely attributed to reduced PM2.5 exposure.

Technology needs to be well-targeted and beyond gimmicks. For example, air pollution control filter towers in Delhi are largely ineffective. Similarly, proposals for using artificial intelligence and machine learning to manage air quality need to be considered in terms of their efficiency and return on investment. Artificial rain generation may help in some cases where humidity levels reach a certain point. Most of the success of urban air quality improvements in China can be attributed to smart regulations and enforcement in the energy and transport sector and forbidding open burning. China’s record needs to be emulated by India and Pakistan, perhaps under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of which all three countries are members. Such an initiative could be a tangible way of science diplomacy that could touch the lives of millions and improve relations among all three countries some of my other work here.
‘Hydro diplomacy’ offers hope for India-Pakistan relations (Nikkei Asia – opinion)
Nikkei Asia [11/12/2024 3:05 PM, Imran Khalid, 2376K, Positive]
At last month’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit hosted by Pakistan, the participation of India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar raised many questions about the possibility of normalizing relations between New Delhi and Islamabad.

Jaishankar’s speech was a display of diplomacy and reservation. He acknowledged Pakistan’s importance to the regional platform but swiftly pivoted to a staunch critique of terrorism, separatism and extremism emanating from the country. This familiar narrative, focusing on what India terms the "three evils" was mostly ignored by the Pakistani media and policymakers, indicating that Islamabad has started to adjust itself to New Delhi’s signature sloganeering.

India’s calculated engagement in the SCO indicated some kind of "ice melting" but also highlighted deep-seated fractures within South Asia, a densely populated region mired in simmering political and security rivalries. Among these, the Kashmir dispute looms largest, an issue rendered more complicated when in 2019 India stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomous status. Another chronic issue that has started to heat up between the neighbors is the revision or modification of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT).

On Aug. 30, India issued a second formal notice to Pakistan seeking a "review and modification" of the 64-year-old treaty, citing changes in population growth, agricultural needs and the evolving water usage situation since the treaty’s inception. The latest notice denotes India’s push to renegotiate the water-sharing agreement, which governs the use of the Indus River and its tributaries between the neighbors.

At the heart of the issue are two hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir -- the Kishanganga and Ratle dam projects -- both of which Pakistan has repeatedly claimed violate the terms of the IWT. While Pakistan has not yet officially replied to this notice, the current Pakistani government, keen to improve relations with India, is likely to handle the situation sensibly. Islamabad might see it as a good opportunity for the resumption of bilateral communication. Since Pakistan has many reservations about the execution of the IWT, the Indian notice for discussion could become the starting point for fresh talks between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

India cannot unilaterally exit the treaty without triggering an international backlash, as it also has similar agreements with neighbors like Bangladesh and Nepal.

Pakistan was categorized as one of the most water-insecure nations in the Global Water Security 2023 Assessment. It is grappling with water shortages that threaten its agricultural stability and overall economic health. A rapidly growing population estimated at around 240 million has exacerbated these pressures, outstripping an already strained infrastructure and prompting fears that the country’s rivers might soon run dry. Pakistan’s dependency on the Indus and its tributaries for nearly 80% of its agricultural irrigation intensifies its strategic vulnerabilities.

This domestic crisis, compounded by concerns over India’s hydropower projects, puts Pakistan in a precarious situation.

A proactive approach to the IWT renegotiation could thus offer Islamabad a chance to address its immediate water security concerns, while opening doors to a broader, long-needed dialogue with India. More than a water-sharing mechanism, the IWT has proven to be a major platform of continuous communication between the two adversaries. It has survived two major wars and countless diplomatic standoffs.

India’s second notice provides an opportunity for both nations to revisit their commitments under the treaty, addressing each side’s grievances while also fostering a channel for consistent communication. Upon revision of the IWT, "hydro diplomacy" will offer a chance to showcase a mutual willingness to pursue talks on an issue that directly affects millions of lives on each side of the border.

In 2016, Pakistan approached the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) to challenge the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects. The dispute had been simmering since 2006 when Islamabad raised serious objections over Kishanganga. This was further escalated when Islamabad displayed concerns over Ratle’s design modifications in 2012. However, refusing to participate in the PCA proceedings in The Hague, India challenged the PCA’s jurisdiction and petitioned the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert under the IWT.

But in April 2023, The Hague court dismissed India’s objections, asserting its "competency" to adjudicate the matter. This decision marked a major shift, reviving a mechanism stalled for years. Pakistan’s appeal was deemed admissible, setting a renewed precedent for navigating future disputes within the Indus River basin through international frameworks. The decision by the PCA, which allowed Pakistan to challenge India’s hydropower projects, raises the potential for third-party mediation in the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanisms. Rather than treating such international adjudication as a last resort, India and Pakistan could use it to foster a regularized, transparent mechanism that builds mutual trust and clarifies the legal boundaries of treaty obligations.

For decades, water issues between India and Pakistan have been entangled in a web of nationalistic rhetoric, territorial disputes and post-colonial legacy grievances. The prevailing discourse in India has frequently emphasized the country’s upper-riparian advantage, with some voices advocating for a more assertive posture toward Pakistan’s water concerns.

Statements from Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remark that "blood and water cannot flow together," reflect the emotive nature of the issue. These statements, often made to cater to the emotional needs of a domestic audience, have fueled an atmosphere of animosity that makes genuine dialogue challenging. Yet with Pakistan’s current administration signaling its willingness to engage, there may be an opening for pragmatism.

The possible renewal process is likely to open channels for broader dialogue beyond water, offering a framework for constructive engagement. Historically, on multiple occasions, the IWT has facilitated communication going in ways that other issues often have not. Here, dialogue on water rights could lead to more fruitful discussions on shared environmental challenges, disaster management and even trade.

Beyond immediate water-sharing concerns, "hydro diplomacy" has the potential to reset India-Pakistan relations on a more pragmatic basis.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Habib Khan
@HabibKhanT
[11/12/2024 2:06 PM, 244.7K followers, 432 retweets, 962 likes]
Remember when Sohail Shaheen, a senior member of the Taliban, said his daughters are going to school in Qatar? The word now is that they have just graduated, while his government continues to deny millions of girls in Afghanistan the right to education.

Habib Khan
@HabibKhanT
[11/12/2024 12:47 PM, 244.7K followers, 138 retweets, 263 likes]
A young man in Paktia who defended himself from sexual assault by killing a Taliban member is now sentenced to death, with the Taliban inviting people to witness his public execution. In the past 10 days, they’ve publicly flogged 50 people, including women, across Afghanistan.
Pakistan
Habib Khan
@HabibKhanT
[11/12/2024 11:02 PM, 244.7K followers, 2 retweets, 34 likes]
The new NSA, @michaelgwaltz, supports the #SanctionPakistan campaign and knows how to handle terror-sponsoring states like Pakistan. Hopefully, we will see serious action against Pakistan and its proxy regime in Afghanistan soon. @calxandr

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[11/13/2024 2:21 AM, 8.5M followers, 10 retweets, 57 likes]
I wrote in 2021 that Lahore and Delhi were worse than hell. I suggested to ban housing developments on farmland. Preserve forests.Don’t allow polluting industries inside cities. Convert public transport to electric vehicles. @PostOpinions https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/08/hamid-mir-on-south-asian-air-pollution-crisis-lahore-delhi/
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[11/12/2024 8:42 AM, 103.5M followers, 3.5K retweets, 17K likes]
Coming to Pune is always special! The energy here is unmatched. Addressing a massive rally.

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[11/13/2024 2:56 AM, 26M followers, 46 retweets, 315 likes]
President Droupadi Murmu inaugurated Swami Vivekananda Vidya Mandir, Zanda Chowk and addressed a public function at Silvassa. Highlighting the rich historical, cultural and natural heritage of the region, the President said that expansion in tourism will create new employment opportunities in the UT.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[11/12/2024 9:35 AM, 3.3M followers, 255 retweets, 1.3K likes]
Delighted to launch the 18th Pravasi Bharatiya Divas #PBD website alongside Odisha CM @MohanMOdisha ji and MoS @KVSinghMPGonda. MEA is proud to partner with Odisha and welcome our diaspora to the temple city of Bhubaneshwar to experience India’s rich culture and heritage. Our biennial #PBD is a longstanding occasion to renew bonds and develop friendships. Invite 🇮🇳 diaspora to register in large numbers and join us in this celebration of our shared roots. : https://pbdindia.gov.in

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[11/12/2024 4:41 AM, 3.3M followers, 329 retweets, 2.4K likes]
Co-chaired a productive and wide ranging 25th meeting of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission in Delhi. Thank my co-chair First DPM Denis Manturov and our delegations for their contribution. Our deliberations covered the complimentary and beneficial IN-RU economic and trade cooperation, reinforcing critical food, energy & health security and facilitating mobility of talent and skills. Confident that our deliberations today will make a strong contribution to the direction and progress of our strategic partnership.

Rahul Gandhi
@RahulGandhi
[11/12/2024 11:33 PM, 27.3M followers, 2.3K retweets, 8.3K likes]
I’m reaching out to my family in Wayanad—this election, my sister Priyanka Gandhi is ready to be your voice in Parliament. She will be more than just a representative—she will be your sister, your daughter, and your advocate. I am confident she will help unlock Wayanad’s full potential. I urge all of you to come out, vote, and support her. Let’s ensure a resounding victory together! #WayanadintePriyankari

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[11/12/2024 8:19 AM, 214.6K followers, 432 retweets, 2.1K likes]
Trump’s reported picks for Secretary of State and National Security Adviser (Rubio and Waltz) are two of Washington’s biggest proponents of US-India partnership and two of its biggest critics of Pakistan (and China). If finalized, they’ll be big backers of Indo-Pacific strategy.
NSB
The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[11/13/2024 2:30 AM, 110.8K followers, 60 retweets, 57 likes]
President H.E. Dr @Mmuizzu participates in the International Zero-Carbon Island Cooperation Initiative Launch Conference, organised by the Shandong Province of China on the sidelines of #COP29. #MaldivesAtCOP29 #COP29

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[11/12/2024 11:05 AM, 110.8K followers, 135 retweets, 139 likes]
The President meets with the President of Nepal, on the sidelines of COP29 https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/32135

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[11/12/2024 11:07 AM, 110.8K followers, 161 retweets, 165 likes]
Vice President Uz @HucenSembe graces the opening of the “Shades of Mind" Arts Exhibition. This exhibition aims to raise awareness and promote dialogue about mental health. It is scheduled from November 12 to 17, 2024, and is organised by @YouthGovMv.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[11/12/2024 11:03 AM, 110.8K followers, 158 retweets, 160 likes]
President H.E. Dr @MMuizzu met with the Right Honourable Ramchandra Paudel, President of Nepal, on the sidelines of #COP29. The two leaders discussed strengthening bilateral cooperation and advancing shared goals towards sustainable development. #MaldivesAtCOP29 #COP29

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[11/12/2024 9:54 AM, 110.8K followers, 155 retweets, 153 likes]
President Dr Muizzu calls for new climate finance goal to support vulnerable nations at the High-Level Roundtable https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/32130 #MaldivesAtCOP29 #COP29

President of Nepal
@OOP_Nepal
[11/12/2024 8:34 AM, 1.9K followers, 22 retweets, 39 likes]
.@OOP_Nepal Rt. Hon. President Ramchandra Paudel delivered Nepal’s statement at World Leaders Climate Action Summit today. In the statement, he highlighted climate justice and climate finance, including reparations for loss and damage to vulnerable nations.

President of Nepal
@OOP_Nepal
[11/12/2024 8:34 AM, 1.9K followers, 1 retweet, 1 like]
He emphasized that climate change has disproportionately affected poor, least developed, mountain nations and SIDS, despite their negligible GHG emissions. He called for adequate financial resources, transfer of technoloy & capacity support to them for adaptation & mitigation.

President of Nepal
@OOP_Nepal
[11/12/2024 8:34 AM, 1.9K followers, 5 retweets, 6 likes]
To address grave climate injustice to developing countries, he called for the implementation of ‘polluters pay and compensate’ principle. COP29 should make concrete progress in setting out a clear NCQG based on principles of climate justice, equity and equality, he underscored.

President of Nepal
@OOP_Nepal
[11/12/2024 8:34 AM, 1.9K followers, 5 retweets, 10 likes]
As mountains melt, the coastal nations also suffer, he added, while urging holistic and integrated strategies for simultaneously protecting mountains and the sea.

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[11/12/2024 11:02 AM, 260.2K followers, 2 retweets, 15 likes]
H. E. Air Chief Marshal Sudarshana Pathirana (Retd), Ambassador of Sri Lanka to Nepal, paid a farewell call on Foreign Secretary Ms. Sewa Lamsal @sewa_lamsal today. The Foreign Secretary appreciated the Ambassador’s efforts in strengthening Nepal-Sri Lanka ties during his tenure.
Central Asia
Yerzhan Ashikbayev
@KZAmbUS
[11/12/2024 1:07 PM, 2.8K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
At #COP29 in Baku, President @TokayevKZ reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and stressed the importance of global cooperation in tackling climate change. #COP29Baku

Yerzhan Ashikbayev
@KZAmbUS
[11/12/2024 1:07 PM, 2.8K followers, 1 like]
With 200M hectares of farmland, Kazakhstan is primed for ‘carbon farming’ to cut emissions and enhance soil quality. President @TokayevKZ invites stakeholders to explore the potential of sustainable agriculture.

Yerzhan Ashikbayev
@KZAmbUS
[11/12/2024 1:07 PM, 2.8K followers, 1 like]
As the source of 43% of the world’s uranium, Kazakhstan is key to advancing low-carbon nuclear energy globally. President @TokayevKZ outlined plans for Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant, stressing a commitment to safety, efficiency, and partnerships with global tech leaders.

Yerzhan Ashikbayev
@KZAmbUS
[11/12/2024 1:07 PM, 2.8K followers, 1 like]
In partnership with France, Kazakhstan will host the One Water Summit this December to address global water governance. With 80% of natural disasters linked to water, the summit will focus on sustainable water management and protection of the Caspian and Aral Seas #OneWaterSummit

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[11/13/2024 12:12 AM, 204.3K followers, 4 retweets, 18 likes]
Аt a meeting with @theGCF’s executive director @MafaldaDuarte, the President of #Uzbekistan advocated for intensifying cooperation, including through implementing programs on innovative greening and sustainable land management, improving the socio-ecological situation in the #Aral Sea region.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[11/13/2024 12:10 AM, 204.3K followers, 2 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev met with @ICESCO_En Director General @SalimAlmalik on the margins of the climate summit in #Baku. In order to advance joint humanitarian projects and generate new programs, a national commission for cooperating with #ICESCO will be established.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[11/12/2024 4:58 PM, 204.3K followers, 10 likes]
Additionally President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev and @EBRD President @OdileRenaud discussed further expansion of strategic partnership. New package of projects will be formed in energy efficiency, SME’s support, women and youth entrepreneurship, social sector and infrastructure, and development of "green" cities.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[11/12/2024 7:24 AM, 204.3K followers, 18 retweets, 89 likes]
Today, President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev addressed the plenary session of the World Leaders Summit within @COP29_AZ in #Baku. To overcome the consequences of global climate change, concrete measures were proposed to prevent pollution of transboundary water resources, preserve sustainable biodiversity, enhance plant resilience to climate change and others. https://president.uz/en/lists/view/7690

Bakhtiyor Saidov
@FM_Saidov
[11/12/2024 11:48 AM, 12.3K followers, 3 retweets, 7 likes]
During the @UN Climate Change Conference #COP29 today in #Baku, @President_Uz H.E. Shavkat Mirziyoyev expressed #Uzbekistan’s commitment to expanding practical contributions to jointly overcoming the consequences of global climate change and proposed the following:
- establish an International Centre for Climate Loss and Damage Assessment;
- develop a Declaration on Obligations to Ensure the Ecological Safety and Health of River Ecosystems under the auspices of the United Nations;
- create in our country the #UN Agro-Industry Innovation Hub for landlocked countries;
- establish an Alliance of World Climate Capitals for the transfer of advanced knowledge and best practices on sustainable development in megalopolises and cities and host its first forum in #Tashkent. All the participants of COP29 were invited to participate at the Global Youth Festival of Digital Green Initiatives on May 15, 2025 in the #AralSea region as part of the International Climate Day.

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