epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Tuesday, May 7, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Violent poppy clearing sparks backlash in northeastern Afghanistan (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/6/2024 8:30 AM, Abdullah Hasrat and Pascale Trouillaud, 11975K, Negative]
From satellite images, Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers have been successful in slashing opium production, but on the ground, farmers stripped of their livelihoods have resisted anti-narcotics units -- sometimes at the cost of their lives.

The end of last week was marked by violent clashes in mountainous Badakhshan province that left two dead, according to provincial police.

There is only one springtime poppy harvest in Badakhshan, and clashes broke out when anti-narcotic units set out to destroy crops in parts of the rural province.

Police told AFP one person was killed in both Darayim and Argo districts on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

A statement said that in Argo, there was a dispute between Taliban authorities and farmers who had been "manipulated by conspirators".

"The locals threw stones and wood at the Mujahideen (Taliban officials) and tried to burn their vehicles and equipment," a police spokesman said.

"In reaction to that, one local resident was killed."

Residents said another six people were wounded in Argo.

Afghanistan was the largest producer of opium before poppy cultivation was banned in a decree by the Taliban supreme leader in April 2022.

Last year its production plummeted by 95 percent, according to figures from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) -- an outcome praised by the international community.

But Afghan farmers reliant on the lucrative crop lost 92 percent of their income last year.

Farmers have been encouraged to plant different crops, but none compete with the financial draw of the poppy, leading some to continue to discreetly cultivate small plots.

The ban on poppy cultivation caused the price of opium to skyrocket by 124 percent in one year as of March 2024, reaching an average of $800 to $1,000 per kilogramme, according to the UNODC.

Government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid announced a high-level committee had been dispatched to investigate the incidents that resulted in last week’s "tragic events", adding that the decree to eradicate poppy cultivation "extends to all regions without exception".

A Badakhshan native, ministry of national defence chief of staff Fasihuddin Fitrat, has been named to lead the investigating committee.

Farmers complain of discrimination when it comes to destruction of their fields, claiming the Taliban authorities turn a blind eye to illicit production by those they have good relations with.

A 29-year-old Argo resident, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal, told AFP that anti-narcotic units "busted into houses, breaking down doors" when they came looking for secret poppy crops.

"When people resisted, they fired on them."

A 45-year-old farmer, also requesting anonymity, said, "The security forces burst into the houses, insulting and beating people".

A third Argo resident complained that authorities came to people’s houses on the Muslim day of prayer and "without informing the local elders, community leaders or Imams".

The incident in Darayim sparked a demonstration of several dozen men, some of whom appeared to be carrying a body, according to footage posted on social media.

"Down with the Emirate!" the crowd shouts.

A man asks: "Why was there no coordination? Nobody was opposed to drug eradication when we had meetings with the governor of the province and other officials."

In another video from a demonstration in Darayim district, a protester accused the authorities of spreading "panic in the area, and acted with savagery and lawlessness", before adding, "We have nothing against the government."

Badakhshan had already been shaken last year by unrest related to poppy eradication, which resulted in one death, with similar incidents in eastern Nangarhar province.

"These protests might reveal that farmers are lacking resources to maintain basic needs, therefore alternative crop opportunities might help this situation," a senior UNODC official told AFP.

The Taliban authorities have called on the international community to "cooperate with the Islamic emirate in providing alternatives to those farmers", according to government spokesman Mujahid.

"Unfortunately, no cooperation has been done so far in this regard," he told AFP in December last year, adding that the government’s eradication policy would be ensured by providing alternative crops.

"Now, they aren’t cultivating (poppies) but, in the future, it cannot be guaranteed because people are facing many problems."
Pakistan
Iran, Pakistan seek ways to complete gas pipeline project (Reuters)
Reuters [5/6/2024 8:53 AM, Ariba Shahid, 11975K, Negative]
Iran and Pakistan are looking at ways to complete a long-delayed gas pipeline project between the two countries, Iran’s Consul General to Pakistan, Hassan Nourian, said on Monday.

"We see political determination from Pakistan to complete the project," he told reporters in the southern city of Karachi.

The countries signed an agreement to construct the pipeline from Iran’s South Fars gas field to Pakistan’s Balochistan and Sindh provinces in 2010, but work on Pakistan’s portion has been held up due to fears of U.S. sanctions.

The 1,900 kilometre (1,180 mile) pipeline was meant to supply 750 million to one billion cubic feet per day of natural gas for 25 years to meet Pakistan’s rising energy needs.

Tehran says it has invested $2 billion to construct the pipeline on its territory. Pakistan, however, did not begin construction, citing international sanctions on Iran as the reason.

In 2014, Islamabad asked for a 10-year extension to build the pipeline, which expires in September this year. Iran can take Pakistan to international court, industry watchers have said.

Faced with potential legal action, Pakistan’s caretaker administration this year gave the go ahead in principal to commence plans to build an 80km segment of the pipeline.

In March, Islamabad said it would seek a U.S. sanctions waiver for the pipeline. The U.S., however, said it did not support the project and cautioned about the risk of sanctions in doing business with Tehran.

Nourian on Monday said the pipeline did not come under international restrictions, and that the two countries were discussing the issue.

He did not answer a question about the potential for Iran to take legal action against Pakistan if it did not complete its side of the pipeline this year.

Pakistan, whose domestic and industrial users rely on natural gas for heating and energy needs, is in dire need for cheap gas with its own reserves dwindling fast and LNG deals making supplies expensive amidst high inflation.

Iran has the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia, according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, but sanctions by the West, political turmoil and construction delays have slowed its development as an exporter.
Iran smuggles $1bn worth of fuel into Pakistan annually: report (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [5/7/2024 5:40 AM, Adnan Aamir, 293K, Neutral]
Iranian traders smuggle more than $1 billion worth of fuel into neighboring Pakistan annually, according to a new report that an observer said could foreshadow a crackdown on the black market.

The 44-page investigation was conducted by a pair of Pakistani intelligence agencies and leaked to local media. Nikkei Asia obtained a copy that official sources have verified as authentic.

"Smuggling of Iranian Oil" is the first major probe released publicly on the longstanding trade, which got a boost a decade ago after U.S.-led sanctions on Iranian oil exports forced Tehran to find new markets for its petroleum products.

Last year, some $1.02 billion in Iranian petrol and diesel was smuggled across the 900-kilometer-long Iran-Pakistan border. That accounted for about 14% of Pakistan’s yearly consumption, and resulted in losses "to the exchequer" of about $820 million, the report said.

It did not elaborate on the nature of those losses, but much of it was likely estimates of lost tax and duties along with damage to the businesses of Pakistani finished petroleum product suppliers.

The illegal smuggling route involves some 2,000 vehicles daily carrying barrels across the border, according to the report. This is despite longstanding tensions between the two neighbors that led to tit-for-tat military strikes earlier this year.

Ending the trade could be devastating for millions living in the border province of Balochistan, however. It has been gripped by violent separatist insurgency for years, and Pakistan’s southwestern region is the country’s poorest. Three out of four people there live below the poverty line, according to government figures.

"Almost 2.4 million people in Balochistan depend on this oil trade for their livelihood and otherwise have scarce economic opportunities," the report said .

Balochistan resident Abdullah Baloch is among those who depend on oil smuggling, which locals regard as an "informal trade."

"If oil smuggling from Iran is shut down, then people in districts bordering Balochistan will have nothing to eat," the 32-year-old told Nikkei, calling on the government to regulate the trade.

The report named more than 200 oil smugglers as well as government and security officials benefiting from a lucrative business that thrives on corruption at all levels.

"The culture of bribes and connivance of [security] officials with smugglers continues at almost all [border checkpoints]," it said.

The government has yet to respond publicly to the report. But an official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of not being authorized to talk to the media, said the report was deliberately leaked to establish grounds for a crackdown on the Iranian smuggling pipeline.

Observers are skeptical given Islambad’s previous efforts to rein in the trade.

"Sometimes the government starts action against smuggling and then the action is stopped abruptly," said Shahzada Zulfiqar, a Pakistan-based political analyst. "The only way to completely end this oil smuggling is to seal the Iranian border with Pakistan, which is not possible."

Tackling the oil racket also means butting heads with politically powerful figures, Zulfiqar said.

"If the government only cracks down on the small players and the drivers, who barely make a living out of this trade, then it won’t work," he said.

Shutting down the pipeline could also give Balochistan’s separatist militants an opening to lure new recruits to carry out attacks on security forces and regional economic interests, which largely rely on Chinese investment.

"Cracking down on Iranian oil smuggling will push the people in the border regions of Balochistan towards crime, the drug trade and the Baloch separatist militancy," said Zulfiqar.

However, allowing the trade to continue risks drawing unwanted attention from international bodies, including the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF, which is supplying cash-strapped Pakistan with a multi-billion-dollar bailout, raised the issue last year and called for an explanation from the government. Pakistan was also on global money laundering watchlist of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) until it was removed two years ago.

"The IMF has been providing Pakistan with financing even when this smuggling is rampant," said Aadil Nakhoda, an assistant economics professor at the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi. "I would be more concerned about ... financial watchdogs such as FATF, especially as the situation with Iran and the Middle East escalates."
Pakistan considers raising retirement age ahead of IMF visit (Reuters)
Reuters [5/7/2024 5:40 AM, Ariba Shahid, 11975K, Neutral]
Pakistan is considering raising its retirement age to reduce burgeoning pension payments ahead of the annual budget and International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visit, the country’s finance minister said on Tuesday.

An IMF mission is likely to visit Pakistan within the next 10 days to discuss a new bailout programme, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told a news conference.

Pakistan last month completed a short-term $3 billion programme, which helped stave off sovereign default, but the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has stressed the need for a new longer-term programme.

"Steps must be taken to bring pension costs under control," the finance minister said, adding that pension payments were a "big liability". The retirement age in Pakistan is 60.

"Age is now just a number," Aurangzeb added. "Sixty is the new 40."

Pakistan budgeted 801 billion rupees for ($2.88 billion) superannuation allowances and pensions for the fiscal year 2023-24, up 31% from the 609 billion rupees ($2.19 billion) budgeted for the last fiscal year.

Pakistan’s financial year runs from July to June and its budget for fiscal year 2025, the first for Sharif’s new government, must be presented before June 30.

"A mission is expected to visit Pakistan in May to discuss the FY25 budget, policies, and reforms under a potential new programme for the welfare of all Pakistanis," the IMF said on Sunday.

The IMF and finance minister did not specify the dates of the visit, nor the size or duration of the programme.
India
Modi, Adani Vote as India Election Campaign Turns Hostile (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/7/2024 3:47 AM, Dan Strumpf, 5.5M, Neutral]
Voting kicked off in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat in the third phase of India’s election, with campaigning becoming increasingly acrimonious between the two main parties.

Modi, 73, cast his vote Tuesday morning in Gujarat’s largest city of Ahmedabad. Appearing before supporters outside a polling station in a saffron vest — the trademark color of his Bharatiya Janata Party, Modi urged them to vote in large numbers and stay hydrated amid scorching temperatures across India.

Modi is seeking a historic third term in power, with the BJP campaigning on India’s fast-growing economy and an assertive pro-Hindu agenda that critics say has marginalized Muslims and other minorities. In an interview on Monday, Modi didn’t rule out going for a fourth term should he win this time around but said a country shouldn’t be run on the basis of one person.

“I don’t want this country to run on Modi,” he said. “This Modi himself will not want.”

Billionaire Gautam Adani, who is perceived to have close ties with Modi, also cast his vote in Ahmedabad, telling reporters later that India is “progressing forward and will continue to progress.”

Balloting will also take place in parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and other regions in the latest round of India’s seven-phase election. Eleven states and territories in all go to the polls on Tuesday, with 93 seats in India’s lower house of Parliament, the Lok Sabha, in contention.

Voting in India’s marathon election began April 19 and will run through June 1. The winner will be declared June 4.

The latest round of polling comes as Modi and his allies have ramped up attacks on the opposition that have drawn condemnation for being discriminatory. At a rally last month, Modi told supporters that if voted to power, the Congress party would redistribute wealth to Muslims and “infiltrators.” This week, the BJP in Karnataka province posted an animated video that showed the Congress party favoring Muslims over other minority groups.

The Congress party say the BJP is misrepresenting the pledges made in its manifesto and has registered complaints with the Election Commission of India and the police over some of the comments.

Modi was born in Gujarat and built his political career in the prosperous western state, running it as chief minister from 2001 through 2014 on a pro-business platform. He drew criticism for a wave of deadly communal riots in 2002 in the state, though was cleared of wrongdoing by India’s Supreme Court. The BJP won all of the state’s 26 seats in 2019 and 2014.

Modi is widely expected to be voted into a third five-year term, and attention has recently shifted to a dip in voter turnout during the first two phases of voting. Last week, the Election Commission said in a statement it was disappointed with turnout so far and is taking measures to boost participation in the remaining five phases, including ordering state officials to draw up get-out-the-vote plans.

According to the commission, phase one registered a turnout of 66.14% and phase two registered a turnout of 66.71%. Overall voter turnout in 2019 was 67.4%.

Attention will also be on voting in Maharashtra state, where two regional parties — the Shiv Sena party and the Nationalist Congress Party, or NCP — have each split in two, leading to confused allegiances and infighting across the region.

Here are some key constituencies up for a vote on Tuesday:

Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah will be seeking another term from Gandhinagar in Gujarat. The state is a BJP stronghold. Shah will face off against the Congress party’s Sonal Patel
In Baramati, Maharashtra, attention is on a family feud: Sitting Lok Sabha member Supriya Sule squares off against sister-in-law Sunetra Pawar. Each is affiliated with opposing sides of the NCP split
India votes in third phase of national elections as PM Modi escalates his rhetoric against Muslims (AP)
AP [5/7/2024 12:50 AM, Krutika Pathi and Sheikh Saaliq, 456K, Neutral]
Millions of Indian voters across 93 constituencies were casting ballots on Tuesday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has mounted an increasingly shrill election campaign, ramping up polarizing rhetoric in incendiary speeches that have targeted the Muslim minority.

In recent campaign rallies, Modi has called Muslims “infiltrators” and said they “have too many children,” referring to a Hindu nationalist trope that Muslims produce more children with the aim of outnumbering Hindus in India. He has also accused the rival Indian National Congress party of scheming to “loot” wealth from the country’s Hindus and redistribute it among Muslims, who comprise 14% of India’s more than 1.4 billion people.

Tuesday’s polling in the third round of multi-phase national elections has crucial seats up for grabs in states including Karnataka, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. Most polls predict a win for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which is up against a broad opposition alliance led by the Congress and powerful regional parties. The staggered election will run until June 1 and votes will be counted on June 4.

Modi, who voted in western Ahmedabad city on Tuesday, had kicked off his campaign with a focus on economic progress, promising he would make India a developed nation by 2047. But in recent weeks, he and the ruling BJP have doubled down heavily on their Hindu nationalism platform, with Modi employing some of his most divisive rhetoric in his decade in power.

Analysts say the change in tone comes as the BJP aims to clinch a supermajority or two-thirds of the 543 seats up for grabs in India’s lower Parliament by consolidating votes among the majority Hindu population, who make up 80%. They say Modi’s party is also ratcheting up polarizing speeches to distract voters from larger issues, like unemployment and economic distress, that the opposition has focused on.

While India’s economy is among the world’s fastest growing, many people face growing economic stress. The opposition alliance hopes to tap into this discontent, seeking to galvanize voters on issues like high unemployment, inflation, corruption and low agricultural prices, which have driven two years of farmers’ protests.

“The mask has dropped, and I think it is political compulsions that have made them do this,” said Ali Khan Mahmudabad, a political science professor at New Delhi’s Ashoka University.

Changes in the BJP’s campaign may also be a sign of anxiety around low voter turnout it had not anticipated, Mahmudabad said. Voter turnout in the first two phases have been slightly lower than the same rounds in the last election in 2019, according to official data.

“In recent elections, the BJP’s wins have been associated with getting the voters out (to vote),” Mahmudabad said. “There may be some fatigue, anti-incumbency or even disenchantment,” which has led the BJP to escalate their rhetoric.

Modi, in numerous speeches in recent weeks, has said women’s wealth could be at risk if Congress comes to power, claiming the party would snatch away their “mangalsutra” — a sacred gold chain that indicates a Hindu woman’s marital status — and give it to its voters, a veiled reference to Muslims. The opposition won’t stop there, he has repeatedly claimed, saying the party was conspiring to take away “your property” and “distribute it among selected people.”

Others in Modi’s party have echoed his remarks. A recent video posted by the BJP on Instagram was more direct. The animated campaign video, which has since been taken down from the social media platform, said if the Congress party comes to power, it will take money and wealth from non-Muslims and redistribute it to Muslims.

The Congress party and other political opponents have characterized Modi’s remarks as “hate speech” that could fan religious tensions. They have also filed complaints with India’s election commission, which is overseeing the polls, for breaching rules that ban candidates from appealing to “caste or communal feelings” to secure votes.

The commission can issue warnings and suspend candidates for a period of time over violations of the code of conduct, but it has issued no warnings to Modi so far.

Modi’s critics say India’s tradition of diversity and secularism has come under attack since the prime minister and his party rose to power a decade ago. While there have long been tensions between India’s majority Hindu community and Muslims, rights groups say that attacks against minorities have become more brazen under Modi.

The party denies the accusation and says its policies benefit all Indians.

Mahmudabad, the political scientist, said Modi’s party had counted on getting votes from the fervor over a Hindu temple that was built atop a razed mosque that Modi opened in January. Many saw the glitzy spectacle as the unofficial start of his election campaign.

“Instead, people are talking about inflation, unemployment and economic distress,” Mahmudabad said. “And so in order to galvanize and consolidate their vote, the BJP has raised the specter of Muslims.”
India’s Modi casts his vote as giant election reaches half-way mark (Reuters)
Reuters [5/6/2024 11:43 PM, Sumit Khanna, 5239K, Neutral]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi voted early as India held the third phase of a massive general election on Tuesday, and called for a strong turnout although he warned of the scorching summer heat.

The world’s most populous nation began voting on April 19 in a seven-phase election in which nearly one billion people are eligible to vote, with ballots set to be counted on June 4.

Modi is seeking a rare, third straight term in a vote which pits his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) against an alliance of more than two dozen opposition parties. Surveys suggest he will win a comfortable majority.

"I urge all citizens to vote in large numbers and celebrate the festival of democracy... To all those working in the heat, I urge you to take care of your health and drink adequate water," he said shortly after voting in his home state of Gujarat.

Modi cast his ballot in the Gandhinagar constituency where his number two, Home Minister Amit Shah, is the BJP candidate.

Clad in saffron and white, Modi was surrounded by hundreds of supporters and party members, signing autographs and talking to children on the way to the polling booth.

He was received by Shah as people beat drums and rang bells.

Modi’s campaign began by showcasing his economic record, welfare measures, national pride and personal popularity.

But it changed tack after the first phase of voting on April 19 and focused more on firing up BJP’s Hindu base by attacking rivals as pro-Muslim, even as surveys say jobs and inflation are the main concerns of voters.

In an interview with broadcaster Times Now aired on Monday, Modi said he does not oppose Islam or Muslims and wants the community to think about their future growth as they vote.

Tuesday’s polling covers 93 seats in 11 states and territories, with Gujarat and Maharashtra in the west and Karnataka in the south accounting for 50 seats. That would complete voting for 283 of parliament’s 543 elected seats.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP won more than 70 of 93 seats up for grabs on Tuesday, but faces tougher contests this time as the main opposition Congress party has gained strength in Karnataka and a regional partner has split in Maharashtra.

Voter turnout of 66.14% and 66.71% respectively in the first two phases has been marginally lower than corresponding phases five years back, with analysts blaming the summer heat and the lack of a single strong issue to motivate voters.

The Election Commission has since stepped up a campaign to encourage people to vote while consulting with weather officials and health and disaster management agencies to deal with the impact of the heat wave on Tuesday’s vote.

"Weather conditions are predicted to be within normal ranges," it said in a statement on the eve of the vote, calling on voters to "turn out in greater numbers at polling stations and vote with responsibility and pride".

It is also pushing voter awareness to raise participation through messages and songs during Indian Premier League cricket matches, Facebook alerts, announcements at train stations and on flights, messages on train tickets, milk pouches, at gas stations, and films and songs at cinema theatres, among others.

Music app Spotify has created an "election playlist" to motivate voters, and celebrities are being used to make appeals through radio and TV commercials, it said.
Improper ‘shadow’ ads thriving on Facebook during India’s election (Washington Post)
Washington Post [5/6/2024 8:00 AM, Joseph Menn, 6902K, Neutral]
Many political ads running on Facebook in India during its current election season are backed by organizations that hide their identity, according to civil society groups and recent studies, threatening the integrity of a process intended to enforce transparency in a system full of emotional appeals.

The world’s largest election and one of its most expensive, India’s voting season began last month and runs through June 1. Facebook has hundreds of millions of users in the country, which is the social network’s largest market, and is reaping a significant portion of an estimated $16 billion in campaign spending.

Although Facebook established a vetting process that includes obtaining photo identification and a local address before allowing accounts to run political ads, it fails to confirm that both belong to the person at the keyboard, the reviews show.

Making matters worse, according to one study published Monday, is a thriving black market in accounts approved to run political ads. Multiple sellers in public Facebook groups with tens of thousands of members have been offering such accounts for sale to run Indian ads as well as political ads in the United States and other countries, raising wider questions about Facebook’s defenses against election manipulation. The same issue was previously exposed in the United States, Brazil and elsewhere.

A spokesman for Facebook parent company Meta did not deny that such transactions occur, but said the company acts when it sees them.

“Meta prohibits ad account owners from selling access to their accounts, and we work to remove any ads and take action against account owners that violate our policies,” said Meta’s Ryan Daniels. “People that want to run ads about elections or politics must go through the authorization process required on our platforms and are responsible for complying with all applicable laws.”

One person currently offering approved Indian accounts for sale told The Washington Post that his buyers were using them to run political ads in India. The seller’s own Facebook account lists him as a resident of Multan, Pakistan. Meta said people in one country are not allowed to run political ads in other nations, but a reporter’s searches on Facebook turned up many posts offering to sell accounts in the United States and elsewhere to anyone.

“Facebook appears to be allowing users to simply sell accounts that have received approval to run political ads, undermining the company’s promises to promote election integrity,” said the new study by the nonprofit watchdog group Tech Transparency Project, which provided it to The Post in advance. The group is funded by philanthropies and does not take corporate money. “Anyone who buys these accounts would have the ability to run political ads under the name of a different person or organization.”

Once an advertiser is approved, it can change its name and the name of the administrator. The ability of people in another country to place political ads, eight years after Russians bought U.S. political ads with rubles, “raises major concerns when it comes to foreign interference in America,” said Tech Transparency Project Director Katie Paul. “India is the canary in the coal mine.”

Another recent study estimated that more than 20 percent of the political ads on the largest social network in the most populous country are run by surrogates or “shadow” accounts, allowing candidates and parties to deny responsibility while the ads attack minority religions, lower castes and other attributes protected by federal laws.

“It’s created this shadow industry, spreading these messages without direct association being disclosed,” said Prateek Waghre, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, India. “These are unethical enterprises, they couldn’t be operating in the way they are if the platforms enforced their own policies, and they are directly profiting.”

Last month, the foundation and 10 other civil groups wrote to India’s national election commission to raise multiple concerns about the role of technology in the integrity of the campaigns and voting, with shadow advertising the top issue. A spokesperson for the commission had no comment Saturday.

It is unclear what impact the ads are having during the month-long elections, which are already awash in all manner of ads and slanted news. But the study released last month that found more than 20 percent of political and social ads to be run by shadow advertisers said they were primarily offered by what the authors called the far right, including Hindu supremacists and others employing violent rhetoric against minorities.

Those ads included dozens with more than 60 million collective views that potentially broke election laws against hate speech and misinformation, such as by portraying Muslims as “sexually violent invaders,” according to the study by Eko, India Civil Watch International and the London Story.

Meta said it acted against more than a dozen accounts cited in that report but did not find that the content violated its “community standards,” which are less strict than Indian law. The company said it prohibits the sale of accounts.

The problem of rogue ads on Facebook has been chronicled by research groups and journalists for years. A study of election ads running last year in Bangladesh concluded that only 17 percent had the proper disclosures about the buyers, while many ads were not classified as political when they should have been.

One of the companies currently placing thousands of political ads in India without identifying a party or candidate behind it, called Phir Ek Baar Modi Sarkar, was identified doing the same thing in a year-long project by journalists published by Al Jazeera in 2022.

“This publisher distorts facts and propagates conspiracy theories to discredit individuals critical of the ruling BJP party, such as journalist Arfa Khanum Sherwani and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi,” the Eko study said, linking to examples from Facebook’s library of political ads from the 90 days that ended March 25.

Facebook has touted its system for vetting those who buy political ads and publishing information about those buyers. Earlier in April, it said of its preparations for the Indian elections: “we’ve rolled out industry-leading transparency tools for ads about social issues, elections or politics.”

But researchers have found that some addresses that Facebook advertisers disclosed to comply with disclosure rules do not match with the alleged businesses. Others belonged to political operations that were not listed as the sponsor.

The advertising issue is the latest of many in India where critics say Meta has failed to enforce its own policies.

The Post previously reported that Meta waited a year to take down a propaganda operation run by the Indian military in Kashmir, then changed its published rules to avoid announcing the takedown.

Meta also has been widely criticized, including by an outside law firm it hired to review its Indian human rights record, for allowing hate speech by allies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi against Muslims while physical violence against members of the minority religion was escalating.
India election: Inside Modi and BJP’s plan to win a supermajority (Reuters)
Reuters [5/6/2024 11:48 PM, Rupam Jain and Tora Agarwala, 5239K, Neutral]
As India votes in a six-week general election, Narendra Modi’s image adorns everything from packs of rice handed out to the poor to large posters in cities and towns.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is relying on the prime minister’s popularity as it seeks a super-majority in India’s parliament. Its message: Modi has delivered economic growth, infrastructure upgrades and India’s improved standing in the world.

But as the Hindu nationalist party and its allies target 400 of the 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament - up from 352 won in 2019 - they are also employing local tactics in some vital constituencies they hope to wrest from the opposition.

Opinion polls indicate Modi will win a rare third term when voting ends on June 1. But only once in Indian history has a party crossed the 400 mark - when the centre-left Congress party romped to victory following the assassination of its leader Indira Gandhi in 1984.

To examine how the right-wing National Democratic Alliance (NDA) aims to achieve that feat - and the obstacles it faces - Reuters spoke to nine NDA officials, three opposition leaders and two political analysts, as well as voters in six opposition-held seats the alliance is targeting.

They identified three of the BJP’s key tactics: enlisting celebrity candidates to unseat veteran opposition lawmakers; making an assault on the opposition’s southern strongholds by appealing to minorities such as Christians; and exploiting redrawn political boundaries that bolster the Hindu electorate in some opposition-controlled areas in the north.

"A combination of strategies, organisational commitment and tactical flexibility will help make inroads in seats never held by the party ever before," BJP President J. P. Nadda, who oversees the party’s election strategy, told Reuters in April.

Some critics have warned the BJP would use a large majority to push through a more radical agenda in a third term. While the BJP’s manifesto focuses heavily on economic growth, it has also pledged to scrap separate legal codes for religious and tribal groups in areas such as marriage and inheritance.

Many Muslims and tribal groups oppose the plan, which would require a constitutional amendment to be passed by at least two-thirds of parliament.

"Modi wants a landslide majority only to be able to end the debate and deliberation on any policy matter in the parliament," Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge told Reuters.

Following low turnout in early voting, some BJP campaign officials have in recent days appeared less confident of securing a huge majority, though the party still expects to form the next government.

SOUTHERN STRATEGY

Modi’s party has criticised the dynastic politics that it says afflicts Congress, long dominated by the Nehru-Gandhi family. But in Pathanamthitta, a seat in the southern state of Kerala, it is fielding a political scion in Anil Antony - son of a veteran Congress leader.

The constituency, home to a sizeable Christian minority, has been held by Congress since its creation in 2009.

Anil’s father, former defense minister A.K. Antony, supports the incumbent and has denounced his son, a fellow Christian, for representing the Hindu nationalist party.

But Anil has another supporter: Modi, who came to Pathanamthitta in March and praised the BJP candidate for his "fresh vision and leadership". The prime minister has visited the five states of southern India at least 16 times since December.

Nadda, the BJP president, acknowledged that winning a supermajority would require performing well in the five southern states, which are home to about 20% of India’s population but have not traditionally voted for his party.

In 2019, the NDA won just 31 of 130 seats across Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, all of which are linguistically diverse and have many Muslim and Christian voters.

Jiji Joseph, general secretary of the BJP’s minority wing in Kerala, said the party has made a concerted push for the 18% of voters there who are Christians. The BJP did not win a single seat in Kerala at the last general election.

"The BJP launched active contact with the Church and we started interacting with clergies directly," he said, adding that the party now has 11,000 active Christian members. "There is a change. Christians now want to believe that BJP stands for them."

In April, Anil became the first BJP candidate in Kerala to be endorsed by Christian leaders. He told Reuters his selection indicated the party offered opportunities to members from minority groups. He declined to comment on relations with his father.

Jayant Joseph, a Keralan Christian voter, said he backed the BJP because he had read media reports about Muslim men marrying Christian women and converting them to Islam. Most moderate Hindus consider allegations of large-scale forced conversions to be a conspiracy theory.

"Kerala is a secular state," he said. "But for it to continue to be a secular state, the Muslim population and their conversion strategy must be kept under check."

A Modi political aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk to media, said the NDA expects to win about 50 seats in the south.

K. Anil Kumar, a senior leader of Kerala’s ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist), said he did not believe BJP would do well in his state, which he said has a strong tradition of secularism.

"The BJP might try to side with the Christians on some issues but they are fundamentally a party of the Hindus and for the Hindus," he said.

STAR CANDIDATES

In the Mandi constituency of the northern state of Himachal Pradesh, the BJP has recruited Bollywood actress Kangana Ranaut to break the Congress party’s grip on power. Congress is fielding as its candidate Vikramaditya Singh, whose mother currently represents the constituency. His father was the state’s long-time chief minister.

Ranaut, a political novice who calls herself a "glorious right-wing" personality, has starred in popular movies with nationalistic themes. She is known for her criticism of Bollywood executives who she said favoured the relatives of famous actors for opportunities.

The actress is one of five actors running for the BJP this year, up from four in 2019.
No opinion polling on the Mandi race is publicly available.

Anjana Negia, an elementary school teacher who plans to vote for Ranaut, acknowledged that her preferred candidate had no political experience. But she said that she valued a new face and that a Modi-backed candidate would help "bring a fresh wave of development."

Fielding celebrities and seeking the endorsement of entertainment personalities is relatively new for the BJP, which "long resisted such tactics because of its cadre-based nature" that prized grassroots efforts, said Milan Vaishnav, an expert on South Asian politics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank.

Ranaut declined an interview request. Federal BJP spokesman Shahzad Poonawala said she "has been successful in exposing dynastic culture and nepotism in Bollywood and now she is doing the same in politics."

Singh, a state minister responsible for urban development, told Reuters that his family’s experiences gave him a better understanding of politics. Charges of nepotism were "shallow", he said.

REDISTRICTING BENEFITS

The NDA is hoping for gains in the northeastern state of Assam, where it won nine of 14 seats in 2019. Assam’s BJP chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, said in March he was confident of winning 13 seats.

The NDA’s confidence is rooted in a 2023 redistricting exercise in the state. India’s non-partisan Election Commission routinely redraws seat boundaries to reflect population changes; it is tasked with ensuring that no political party gains undue advantage from the changes.

But exercises since the last federal election in Assam and far-northern Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only majority Muslim region, diluted the Muslim vote in seats that the NDA is targeting, according to three BJP and four opposition officials.

The Election Commission declined to comment on the two exercises, citing the ongoing election.

In Assam, the NDA has high hopes for Congress-held Barpeta, which alliance candidate Phani Bhushan Choudhury said newly includes dozens of villages and some towns with large Hindu populations.

"Earlier (Barpeta) had a Muslim majority but now it is a Hindu majority," said Choudhury. "That change has worked in my favour."

He estimates that there are now 1.2 million Hindu voters in Barpeta, where he is campaigning on development and protecting the rights of what the NDA calls "indigenous Assamese" voters, who are mostly Hindu.

Choudhury’s Congress opponent Deep Bayan said the percentage of Hindus in Barpeta went from 30% to 70%. "Instead focusing on real issues affecting the people...(the BJP does) the politics of polarisation," he said.

Three of Jammu and Kashmir’s five seats are majority Muslim and held by the opposition. But the NDA hopes to swing one of them, Anantnag-Rajouri, after its voter rolls swelled by more than 50% to over 2 million, according to government data.

Many of the new voters are Hindus or from regional tribes - which benefited from new BJP policies awarding them education and employment privileges - according to regional BJP chief Ravinder Raina.

Raina said the BJP would support an NDA partner that it believed could win Anantnag-Rajouri and focus on retaining the two Hindu-majority seats it holds.

The two redistricting exercises presages a broader remapping of constituencies due after the election.

Vaishnav, of the Carnegie Endowment, said the remapping would distribute seats to the BJP-dominated north, which has much higher population growth rates, to the detriment of wealthier south India.
Can Modi finally win over the southern states and reshape India’s electoral map? (The Guardian)
The Guardian [5/6/2024 11:00 PM, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, 12499K, Neutral]
Under Tamil Nadu’s scorching midday sun, K Annamalai waved at the crowd gathered around his campaign bus. Some people stretched their babies upwards to be touched by him, others threw flower petals and passed gifts through the window. A sea of mobile phones vied for space as people tried to squeeze the candidate into their selfies.

Here in Coimbatore, an industrial city in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) has been working overtime. Over months, thousands of volunteers and party workers have taken to the streets – backed hundreds of locally-targeted WhatsApp groups and a highly-organised social media campaign across YouTube, Facebook and Instagram – whipping up a frenzy around Annamalai, one of the BJP’s most talked-about candidates.

In the build up to India’s mammoth six-week election, which began in April and will continue till 4 June, the BJP has been focusing its efficient campaign machinery, backed by vast financial resources, on winning south Indian constituencies like Coimbatore.

Making a breakthrough into India’s southern states, among the richest and most well-educated in the country, is crucial to Modi’s ambitions to gain an even larger parliamentary majority in this election and extend the reach of the BJP to every corner of the country. However, it will be no easy feat for his party.

Unlike across north India, where the BJP’s dominance is now largely assured, southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala have continued to push back against Modi and the Hindu nationalist narrative of his party. The BJP has never won a seat in Kerala, and it won no seats in Tamil Nadu in the last election, in 2019.
Narendra Modi addresses a crowd on Independence Day. He is looking towards the right and appears to be speaking, with one arm in the air. He is wearing a red turban and white kurta.

The state’s chief ministers have also emerged as some of Modi’s fiercest critics and accused the BJP of depriving them of tax income and investment to punish and undermine their governments.

Many fear that the gulf between India’s north and south could worsen after 2026, when India’s electoral map is due to be redrawn according to population growth. India’s poorer, more populous north – the stronghold of the BJP – is likely to gain parliamentary seats while southern states, which successfully brought down their populations years ago though progressive welfare and education policies, are likely to lose significant parliamentary representation.

Tamil Nadu’s chief minister M K Stalin recently described it as a “sword of Damocles” hanging over the state and has vowed to fight any seat losses.

“The south has always been a tough nut for the BJP to crack because they are primarily viewed as a north Indian, Hindi-speaking party that does not represent regional southern interests, particularly around language and culture,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

But this time round, predicted Vaishnav, the BJP could make “significant inroads” in these states, “perhaps even winning a fair number of seats in Tamil Nadu”. He added: “That would be a huge breakthrough for the BJP and could re-shape India’s electoral map in ways nobody thought possible five years ago.”

‘Annamalai has created so much excitement’

Resistance to the right-wing, Hindu-first politics of the BJP has historically run deep in the southern tip of India. In Tamil Nadu, India’s third richest state, the dominant political ideology for over half a century has been Dravidian nationalism, a left-wing, social equality movement. It began in opposition to upper caste hierarchy and the imposition of north Indian languages such as Hindi and is rooted in protecting the Tamil linguistic and cultural identity. Only Dravidian parties have governed the state since the 1960s.

In Kerala, the first place in the world to democratically elect a communist government in the 1957, leftist politics has also continued to dominate for decades. The state prides itself for having the highest literacy rate in south Asia, and social cohesion between Hindus and the sizeable Muslim and Christian minorities who have lived there for centuries.

In both states, secularism is widely lauded and many voters spoke of their discomfort with the BJP’s heavy-handed use of religion in politics, its Hindu-first agenda and alleged persecution of minorities.

Out on the campaign trail in Tamil Nadu, Annamalai – a former senior police officer who became BJP state president three years ago – steered clear of the overt religious themes and communal, anti-Muslim rhetoric that has become increasingly prevalent at north Indian BJP rallies, even by Modi himself.

He declared the BJP as the “natural party” for protecting Tamil and national interests, rather than “corrupt, dynastic” Dravidian parties such as Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which now rule the Tamil Nadu state government.

“It is not Dravidian politics that dominates in Tamil Nadu, it is personality politics,” said Annamalai, whose campaign team has worked to build an almost cult-like status around him. “It is the larger than life characters who grab people’s attention here.”

Accusations that the BJP intended to impose a north Indian identity on to the state were “ridiculous” he said, pointing out he didn’t even speak Hindi himself. “When I converse with our honourable prime minister, I speak in English and he speaks English back to me,” said Annamalai, who makes his close relationship with Modi well known. “Under what logic can they say we’re imposing Hindi?”

The buzz around Annamalai has certainly made the BJP more visible in Coimbatore than in the past decade. At a party rally, regional organiser S L Muthukumar said he had recently switched over from DMK. “The BJP never had much presence here before but look at how the crowds have turned out, Annamalai has created so much excitement,” he said.

First-time voters such as Bhubarashan 23, said he had been drawn in by the messages of change on the Annamalai campaign’s YouTube channel. “Annamalai is young, he is energetic, he has good ideas,” said Bhubarashan. “Modi brought development to north Indian states like Gujarat and now they are world leaders. We need that in Tamil Nadu.”

Others were more sceptical that the crowds who flocked to see Annamalai would translate into the 25% vote share and seven parliamentary seats he has optimistically projected. Loyalty to Dravidian parties like DMK, and their long-running welfare and education schemes which are credited with lifting millions out of poverty, is deeply entrenched. Meanwhile, many accused Modi of neglecting the state and ruining their businesses with the imposition of a nationwide goods and services tax that is highly unpopular across Tamil Nadu.

N Rajan, 62, said he was a lifelong supporter of DMK and was highly critical of Modi, who he blamed for the rising costs of food and essentials. “Modi thinks he can suddenly start visiting Tamil Nadu for our votes, when all his government has done in ten years is neglect us and then take our hard-earned money,” he said.

‘We don’t mix god with politics’

Over the border in Kerala, where Muslims make up 26% of the population and Christians 18%, the BJP looks likely to have an even tougher fight. The BJP’ campaign has been hampered by Modi’s record in the state of Manipur, where the Christian minority are facing ongoing ethnic violence while the prime minister is accused of turning a blind eye. While the BJP’s vote share is expected to increase in the state, few believed it will translate into any parliamentary seats.

One constituency where the party has high hopes is Thrissur, an affluent, culture-rich city on Kerala’s coast. Their candidate Suresh Gopi, a former star of south Indian cinema, steered clear of any Hindu nationalist narratives and spoke of “spreading love and ending hatred”, stressing that he “does not see religion” when it comes to voters. One of his main messages on the campaign trail has been to “vote for the man, not the party”.

One of those he won over was 19-year-old nursing student Dathan. “We want a change, we want development and Modi is the strongest leader in India” he said. “Look, we all know in the end there is no other option other than Modi.”

Yet Dathan, a Hindu, also spoke uncomfortably of the BJP’s record on minorities, placing his arm around fellow Muslim and Christian students as he spoke. “These are my brothers, no politics can divide us,” he said.

Frustration was rife against the Congress and Communist party-led coalitions that have alternately governed Kerala for decades but most appeared willing to put it aside in the face of perceived threats to secularism and democratic norms under the BJP. “In Kerala, we worship god but we don’t mix it with politics and we reject those that do,” said K. Muraleedharan, the local candidate for the Congress-led coalition.

Sheela George, 54, a teacher, accused the BJP of “only focusing on temple building, not education or development.” She added: “They know if people get the high levels of education we have in Kerala, the BJP would not win any more elections.”
India court extends pre-trial detention of opposition leader Kejriwal until May 20, Live Law says (Reuters)
Reuters [5/7/2024 4:40 AM, Sakshi Dayal, 11975K, Neutral]
An Indian court extended the pre-trial detention of opposition leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal until May 20 on Tuesday, legal news website Live Law reported, weeks before the capital votes in national elections.

The country’s financial crime-fighting agency arrested Kejriwal - a staunch critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi - on March 21 in connection with corruption allegations relating to Delhi’s liquor policy, charges his party has denied.

He has been in pre-trial detention since April 1.
India’s Boom Faces a Pitfall: Sharing the Wealth (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [5/6/2024 5:30 AM, Megha Mandavia, 810K, Neutral]
The world’s biggest election will decide who runs one of its hottest economies, but messages aimed at the masses are usually different from what investors want to hear.

In India’s case, though, allowing more of the bounty to trickle down to its poor would be in both groups’ best interests. Hot topics include inheritance taxes and wealth redistribution, with both ruling and opposition parties portraying themselves as champions of the common man. The slugfest has drawn much needed attention to rising income inequality amid fast-paced economic growth in the country.

India’s determination to emulate China’s playbook and repeat the historic economic boom that rode on manufacturing expansion and productively employing a massive youth population rests on making sure the gains aren’t limited to a small segment of the population. According to recent findings by the World Inequality Lab, the income share of the top 1% stood at 22.6% in 2022, among the highest in the world, and much larger than China’s 15.7%. The top 10%’s share in India was 57.7% versus 43.4% in China.

If India fails to counter the rising inequality by creating gainful employment, most Indians probably won’t see their income rise substantially despite impressive gross domestic product growth numbers, and they may continue to depend on government assistance. Higher fiscal deficits from supporting this population, higher interest rates to combat resulting inflation and weak consumption growth threaten to limit India’s growth going forward.

A closer look at the numbers shows some troubling consumption trends. The pattern of growth has been skewed for the past several quarters, with strong investment demand offsetting weak consumption demand. For instance, India’s GDP growth rose sharply to 8.4% in the last quarter of 2023, well above expectations, primarily supported by strong public capital investment growth. But private consumption growth remained lackluster, inching up to 3.5%. Household consumption accounts for about 60% of India’s GDP.

The dichotomy of weak consumption demand for staples and discretionary items and strong investment demand, especially for premium real estate, reflects the continued challenges of low-income households hit by high inflation. Shares of India’s leading consumer brand Hindustan Unilever 500696 4.89%increase; green up pointing triangle have fallen nearly 17%, and shares of Britannia Industries 500825 2.64%increase; green up pointing triangle are down 11% since the beginning of the year.

One of the reasons for rising inequality, according to World Inequality Lab, is India’s failure to pull more of its workforce away from agriculture toward more productive and better-paying employment. India is attempting to reconfigure its economy away from farming toward manufacturing but has faced difficulties, including political opposition to much-needed agriculture and labor reforms.

The Indian government’s Annual Periodic Labour Force Survey for fiscal 2022 shows that 45.5% of the workforce was employed in agriculture, 12.4% in construction, and only 11.6% in manufacturing, with the rest in services. Other reasons for the imbalance are educational inequality and the unequal effects of India’s services-led economic growth.

The inequality worsened during the pandemic when swaths of India’s informal economy faced a greater loss of livelihood than the corporate sector. India’s policy responses—choosing to remain fiscally tight except for the free food program—ended up helping the formal economy and capital markets more. Lower interest rates boosted the formal sector but reduced returns on bank savings for the masses. The pandemic also reversed India’s transition to nonfarm employment, according to the International Labor Organization, even as agriculture remains one of the poorest-performing sectors of the economy.

China’s incredible growth story involved the transformation of rural people into more productive workers in its booming cities. Investors banking on India catching up with its giant neighbor will be disappointed if the country can’t use its human capital.
NSB
Activists in Bangladesh march through universities to demand end to Israel-Hamas war (AP)
AP [5/6/2024 10:08 AM, Staff, 2565K, Neutral]
Thousands of activists in Bangladesh backed by the ruling party’s student wing marched through universities around the country Monday to demand an end to the Israel-Hamas war and the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

Activists of the Bangladesh Chhatra League marched through the campus of the prestigious Dhaka University chanting anti-Israel slogans, carrying Bangladeshi and Palestinian flags and spreading banners saying “Free Palestine, Stop Genocide.” Many other students also joined the rally, organizers said.

Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority nation of nearly 170 million people, maintains no diplomatic relations with Israel and has called for an independent Palestinian state. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, of the ruling Awami League, has slammed Israel over what she has alleged is genocide committed by its government.

The student group said it organized the demonstrations in solidarity with protests in the United States and because of growing rage against the Israeli military action in Gaza. It called for action “against atrocities, massacres and ongoing human rights violations.”

Student leaders cited Israel over what they described as brutal and indiscriminate attacks that killed women and children and damaged hospitals. Meanwhile the children of Gaza aren’t getting enough food and water, said Tanbir Hasan Shaikat, an organizer.

“We have never seen attacks on hospitals in any war, but we have seen that in Gaza,” he said.

Other protesters said they joined the demonstrations to send a message to the world that they were against any oppression.
Bangladesh activists raise alarm over culture of impunity for rights abusers (VOA)
VOA [5/6/2024 8:14 PM, Redwan Ahmed, 761K, Negative]
Activists and human rights groups in Bangladesh are raising alarms over the government’s culture of impunity for human rights abusers, as detailed in the U.S. State Department’s recently released annual human rights report.

Bangladesh made no significant progress in improving its human rights situation, the department said in its 2023 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices.

The report said arbitrary killings, enforced disappearances and torture by government forces persisted throughout the past year. It also highlighted additional concerns, including harsh prison conditions, arbitrary arrests and a lack of judicial independence.

Reacting to the report, Nasiruddin Elan, a director of Odhikar — a human rights organization known for documenting thousands of alleged extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances in Bangladesh — said, “These reports raise public awareness, making people more informed and aware about the issues, which is essential.”

In 2022, Bangladesh’s government accused Odhikar of spreading “propaganda against the state by publishing misleading information,” leading to the revocation of its operating license and criminal charges against Elan and Adilur Rahman Khan, the founder and secretary of the organization.

Elan and Khan were sentenced to two years in prison in September 2023 following a trial widely criticized as “politically motivated” by campaigners. Both are currently out on bail.

“The findings of the [State Department] report are not surprising to me. We are in a state where democracy is completely absent, and governance is increasingly autocratic. Under such conditions, those in power will show little regard for human rights. They have no reason to try [to] improve the human rights situation,” Elan told VOA.

Shahdeen Malik, a prominent Bangladeshi lawyer and human rights activist, expressed concern over the culture of impunity highlighted in the report, noting that it has created a dire situation where citizens have no recourse or means to seek remedy if they become victims of wrongdoing.

“It’s a telltale sign of a dictatorship when the system disregards human rights, stifles freedom of expression and quashes rights movements,” Malik told VOA.

He believes targeted sanctions against high-ranking officials or visa restrictions might compel the government to address the human rights abuses by its agents.

In December 2021, the U.S. placed sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), an elite unit of Bangladesh’s police force, and six of its current and former officers. The sanctions were imposed because of the RAB’s alleged involvement in many extrajudicial killings and forced disappearances.

“The seemingly autocratic government now ignores pressure from civil societies and rights activists. The international community could implement targeted actions to punish the wrongdoers. However, it is important to remember that broader trade sanctions would ultimately harm the general population,” Malik said.

A 34-year-old opposition political activist of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who asked to remain unnamed for fear of repercussions, said the report revealed the “true face” of the current government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

“To remain in power, the government has violated the human rights of opposition activists and the free press to an unthinkable extent. And the U.S. report has done a great service to the people of Bangladesh highlighting the dire state of the country’s human rights situation,” he told VOA via telephone from a northwestern district of the country.

He added that he currently faces nearly a dozen charges because of his involvement in BNP politics. The activist said that these charges have resulted in five incidents of imprisonment, but said he was currently out on bail. He denies the allegations, asserting that they are baseless and politically motivated.

The “international community and also the U.S. now must act on the findings of the report; like they previously imposed sanctions on the RAB forces, they should hold the human rights abusers accountable,” he said.

Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to VOA’s calls, messages and email requests for comment. However, during a media briefing in April, the ministry criticized the U.S. assessment, saying the report did not accurately reflect the situation on the ground and claimed it was based on “isolated and unfounded allegations.”

"It is also apparent that the report mostly relies on assumptions and unsubstantiated allegations drawn from local and international nongovernment organizations (including anonymous sources), many of which are supported by the U.S. government or related entities,” ministry spokesperson Seheli Sabrin told journalists while reading from a statement on April 25.

Extrajudicial actions

Citing data from a prominent local human rights organization, Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), the State Department report noted that although there was a reported decline in extrajudicial killings from the previous year, ASK’s records indicate that from January to September 2023, eight individuals died under questionable circumstances. That includes two deaths in shootouts and three from physical torture, either before or while in custody.

This number, however, represents a decrease from the 12 incidents reported in the corresponding period in the previous year.

The department’s report also points out that enforced disappearances, mostly targeting “opposition leaders, activists and dissidents,” orchestrated by or on behalf of government authorities, continue unabated, with security services frequently implicated. According to an unnamed local human rights group cited in the report, from January to September 2023, 32 individuals became victims of enforced disappearances.

The report said, “There were numerous reports of widespread impunity for human rights abuses. In most cases, the government did not take credible steps to identify and punish officials or security force members who may have committed human rights abuses.”

Suppressing freedom of expression

The report noted restrictions on freedom of expression and media freedom, including violence or threats against journalists, unjustified arrests or prosecutions, censorship and the use or threat of criminal libel laws to curtail free speech.

It also criticized the Digital Security Act, or DSA, a law enacted in 2018 that has long been termed by rights activists as “draconian” for its misuse by the government to suppress dissent and freedom of speech.

“The law was used against speech found on social media, websites and other digital platforms, including for commentators living outside of the country,” the report said.

Bangladesh enacted a modified version of the DSA last year, now named the Cyber Security Act. Rights activists maintain it remains as repressive as its predecessor.
China-Bangladesh Military Exercises Signal Shifting Geopolitical Landscape (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/6/2024 1:28 AM, Saqlain Rizve, 201K, Neutral]
Bangladesh and China will conduct their first-ever joint military exercises in early May.

Announcing the China-Bangladesh Golden Friendship 2024 joint exercises, Chinese Defense Ministry Spokesperson Senior Colonel Wu Qian said in Beijing on April 25 that the joint drill in Bangladesh, which is “based on United Nations peacekeeping anti-terrorism operations” will see the two sides participate in joint exercises “such as the rescue of hostages on buses and the clean-up of terrorist camps.”

China and Bangladesh have strong economic ties. Beijing has invested over $25 billion in various projects in Bangladesh, the second-highest in a South Asian country after Pakistan. It has played a significant role in building bridges, roads, railway tracks, airports, and power plants in Bangladesh. Bilateral trade grew from $3.3 billion in 2009-10 to over $20 billion in 2021-22. Importantly, a broad array of products from Bangladesh enjoys zero tariffs in China.

In addition, China has emerged as an important military ally of Bangladesh. It provided the Bangladesh Navy with two refurbished submarines in 2016 at a discounted price of $205 million. Moreover, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina inaugurated a $1.21- billion China-built submarine base last year. Located at Cox Bazaar off the Bay of Bengal coast, the base can house six submarines and eight warships simultaneously. China’s bolstered relationship with Bangladesh, especially in naval cooperation, stems from the 2002 Defense Cooperation Agreement, covering military training and defense supplies.

The planned joint military exercises will deepen bilateral defense cooperation.

In China’s military strategy, engaging in international joint military exercises is viewed as a crucial aspect of utilizing military power abroad, categorized under what strategists term “non-war military operations.” These exercises, whether conducted bilaterally or multilaterally are commonly regarded as the “soft use” of “hard power” in the international arena.

The joint military exercises will be keenly monitored in neighboring India. “We keep a close watch on all developments that happen in our neighborhood and beyond, which impact our interests, economic and security interests and we take appropriate measures accordingly,” Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesperson of India’s external affairs ministry said at a media conference in response to a question on the upcoming Sino-Bangladeshi joint military exercises.

Although Bangladesh and India have held 11 military drills between 2009 and 2023, the Sino-Bangladeshi exercises have raised several concerns over their implications for Bangladesh and India-Bangladesh relations. Is Bangladesh gradually distancing itself from India and seeking closer ties with China? Is it time for India to reconsider its relationship with Bangladesh? Will Bangladesh become a victim of Sino-Indian tensions?

“Bangladesh is being drawn into the cold war between India and China through this drill,” Altaf Parvez, a researcher on Southeast Asian history and politics, told The Diplomat.

“The Indian government has seen Pakistan as an enemy for a long time. It is now seeing China the same way,” Parvez said. With China trying to strengthen its military presence in South Asia, “the U.S. will push India to focus more on Bangladesh,” adding that the U.S. is “fueling” the hostility.

According to Parvez, Bangladesh shouldn’t join the military drills as it is a small developing country and doesn’t need such militarization. “It’ll only attract trouble from all sides.”

India and Bangladesh share strong cultural, social and economic ties. However, there are several issues of contention. Foremost among these is the longstanding bilateral river water disputes. There is also a significant trade imbalance between the two countries, which is in India’s favor. While this benefits India by boosting its long-standing ambition of globalizing the rupee for trade, Bangladesh gains little.

Then there is the question of a significant number of Bangladeshi nationals getting killed by India’s Border Security Force while crossing the border into India. This has made the India-Bangladesh border one of the deadliest in the world. Surprisingly, there have been no reported instances of Indian citizens being killed by Bangladeshi forces at the border.

While China’s relationship with Dhaka is growing from strength to strength, India’s role in Bangladesh is often criticized. Indeed, while traveling across Bangladesh, it is hard to miss the larger and growing Chinese economic presence in the country.

While China contributes significantly to economic development and infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, India wields substantial influence over Bangladesh’s internal politics. This influence has sparked a quiet “Boycott India” movement within Bangladesh, with the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) accusing India of supporting the ruling Awami League. Following a controversial general election on January 7 this year, which the BNP and several other opposition parties boycotted, reports emerged of India’s heavy-handed influence on the electoral process, allegedly involving deals with the U.S. and other Western powers to keep the Awami League in power.

On another front, Bangladesh currently hosts nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees following their flight from Myanmar in 2017. China has offered assistance in repatriating them to Myanmar, but the issue remains unresolved. Bangladesh may seek to engage with China on this matter through cooperation in military drills.

Although the armaments and submarines provided by China to Bangladesh don’t present an immediate security threat to India, India should take note of this as it strengthens China’s influence over Bangladesh, potentially affecting India’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

According to Monish Tourangbam, honorary director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS), “Bangladesh is the most crucial node in the emerging geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal, which is not only a theater of India-China power dynamics but also that of the U.S.-China competition in the broader Indo-Pacific.”

He emphasized that “the China-Bangladesh joint military exercise, which will reportedly focus on counter-terrorism scenarios, will not rattle New Delhi immediately. However, India has a critical role in building a multipolar South Asia that believes in a consultative partnership with its neighbors amid China’s growing influence in the region.”

“Bangladesh, even the South Asia region, is obviously in need of development and infrastructure assistance, and China’s growing role is a reality that India should take note of,” he said.

China’s South Asian policy is ambiguous and has strategic designs that may harm partnering countries. Therefore, it is incumbent upon India to provide alternative modes of development assistance and infrastructure building in the region that are consultative, commercially viable and transparent. In this pursuit, India can augment its project vision and implementation, in partnership with other China-wary countries.

The announcement of Sino-Bangladeshi joint military exercises marks a significant development in regional politics. With China’s increasing economic and military engagement in Bangladesh, questions arise about its implications for Bangladesh’s relationship with India, as well as the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.

While India holds significant influence over Bangladesh, China’s growing involvement in defense and infrastructure signals a shifting landscape. As China and India vie for influence, Bangladesh could get caught in the middle of this geopolitical competition.
Nepal map on new currency note threatens to reignite border row with India (The Independent)
The Independent [5/6/2024 8:39 AM, Shweta Sharma, 3055K, Negative]
Nepal has angered India by announcing a new NPR 100 currency note that shows territories claimed by its South Asian neighbour, reigniting a longstanding border dispute that has soured relations between the two countries in recent years.

Competing claims on Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura areas escalated into a bitter dispute in 2020 when India, with an eye on China, built a road to connect its northern Uttarakhand state with the strategic Lipulekh mountain pass.

When Kathmandu responded by publishing a new map showing the contested areas as lying inside Nepal’s borders, New Delhi protested that the “artificial enlargement” of Nepal’s claims was not based on historical fact or evidence and, therefore, wasn’t tenable.

The new map adds 335 square kilometres of land to Nepal.

Nepal, which unlike its neighbours was never under European colonial rule, locates its claims on Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipulekh in the 1816 Sugauli treaty with the British Raj. However, the areas have been controlled by India since its war with China in 1962.

Nepal’s information and communications minister Rekha Sharma said the decision to print the new currency note was taken at a meeting chaired by prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Thursday.

“The meeting of the council of ministers chaired by Prime Minister Pushpakamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ took a decision to print the new map of Nepal that includes Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani in the NPR 100 denomination bank notes,” Ms Sharma said.

The minister said the “redesign of the banknote of NPR 100” was approved to “replace the old map printed in the background of the bank note”.

The cabinet’s decision will be conveyed to the country’s central bank, Rastra Bank, which is expected to take up to a year to print and issue the new note.

Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar criticised Kathmandu for taking a “unilateral” action while diplomatic talks to resolve the issue are ongoing.

“Our position is very clear. With Nepal, we are having discussions about our boundary matters through an established platform. In the middle of that they unilaterally took some measures on their side,” the minister said when asked about the development.
Sri Lanka inks 20-year power purchase deal with India’s Adani Green (Reuters)
Reuters [5/7/2024 2:47 AM, Uditha Jayasinghe, 5.2M, Neutral]
Sri Lanka has entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement with India’s Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADNA.NS), opens new tab for two wind power stations developed by the company, a cabinet statement said on Tuesday.

Adani Green Energy, the renewable energy unit of the Adani Group, led by billionaire Gautam Adani, won the approval in February last year to invest $442 million and develop the 484 megawatts wind power plants in Mannar town and Pooneryn village, both located in the Northern province of Sri Lanka.

The company will be paid 8.26 cents per kilowatt-hours (kWh) as per the agreement, the government said.

The Adani Group is also involved in building a $700 million terminal project at Sri Lanka’s largest port in Colombo.

The cash-strapped South Asian island nation, which suffered from crippling power blackouts and fuel shortages during an economic crisis in 2022, has been trying to fast-track renewable energy projects to hedge against surges in imported fuel costs.
Central Asia
Kazakh refinery to export gasoline made from Russian oil (Reuters)
Reuters [5/6/2024 8:03 AM, Alla Afanasyeva, 11975K, Negative]
Kazakhstan and Russia have allowed Kazakh refinery Condensat to export 225,000 metric tons of gasoline this year that will be produced from naphtha supplied by Russia’s Tatneft, according to documents seen by Reuters and industry sources.

Russia has curbed gasoline exports amid fears of domestic shortages, and many countries have imposed sanctions on Russian refined products. The scheme involving the Kazakh refinery bypasses both of those restrictions.

According to a draft agreement between Russia and Kazakhstan, Condensat will be able to ship the 225,000 tons of gasoline outside the Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc that includes both countries and a few other ex-Soviet republics.

Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed that supplies from Tatneft to Condensat had been agreed at 15,000 tons a month. Russia’s Energy Ministry, Tatneft and Condensat have not replied to requests for comment.

Kazakhstan’s three main refineries - of which Condensat is not one - are currently barred from exporting gasoline outside the Eurasian Union.
Kazakh Ex-Minister Insists In Court He Had No Intention To Kill Wife (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [5/6/2024 11:05 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Former Kazakh Economy Minister Quandyq Bishimbaev, who is on trial for violently killing his 31-year-old wife in an Astana restaurant in November, says he had no intention of killing her.

In his final statement on May 6 at his high-profile trial in the Kazakh capital, which has been followed online by tens of millions in the Central Asian country and abroad since late March, Bishimbaev called on the jury to be "objective" in the face of what he called an ongoing campaign on social media that had been organized "to incite hatred toward me."

"I had never wished Saltanat’s death. I had never expected such a result for her. I am guilty, but not of premeditated murder. I had all means to flee and escape the trial, but I did not do that. However, the investigation has been influenced by social networks and media.... Saltanat’s death was unintentional," Bishimbaev said.

Bishimbaev is charged with torture, murder with extreme violence, and repeatedly committing serious crimes. Bishimbaev’s cousin, Baqytzhan Baizhanov, is a co-defendant, charged with failure to report a crime in progress.

The case has attracted nationwide attention amid growing outrage over domestic violence in Kazakhstan, where one in six women say they have faced some form of physical violence at the hands of their male partner.

Bishimbaev’s last statement at the trial coincided with the statement by Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov, who said on May 6 that adviser Saken Mamash to the Kazakh ambassador in the United Arab Emirates will be dismissed, after his wife complained to an online feminist group that her husband had regularly beat her during 10 years of their marriage.

"We urgently called that employee back to Kazakhstan. Law enforcement organs will take care of his case further. He will be fired from the ministry," Smadiyarov said.

Domestic violence has historically gone unpunished in the Central Asian nation, where it is not considered a stand-alone criminal offense. The Kazakh parliament has been dragging its feet for years on a bill that would criminalize domestic violence. Women account for about one-quarter of Kazakh lawmakers.

Amid the public outcry over the brutal death of Nukenova, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev publicly called on the Interior Ministry to take the case under its "special control" during the investigation.

The 43-year-old Bishimbaev served as economy minister from May 2016 to late December the same year. Before that, he occupied different managerial posts in government agencies.

In 2018, Bishimbaev and 22 others faced a high-profile corruption trial that ended with Bishimbaev’s conviction on charges of bribery and embezzlement while leading a state-controlled holding company.

A court in Astana sentenced him to 10 years in prison, but Bishimbaev, who comes from an influential family, was granted an early release through a mass amnesty issued by the government. He had served only 18 months of his term.

The Interior Ministry said earlier that more than 100,000 cases of domestic violence are officially registered each year, though the number of unregistered cases, analysts say, is likely much larger.

International rights watchdogs have urged Kazakh officials to curb the spreading of domestic violence for years.

According to the United Nations, about 400 women die in Kazakhstan as a result of domestic violence every year.
Investigation Launched Into Convicted Kyrgyz Mercenary’s Escape To Russia (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [5/6/2024 8:18 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
A court in Bishkek announced on May 6 that an internal investigation had been launched into the escape of a Kyrgyz man to Russia after he was handed a suspended seven-year prison term for joining Russia’s armed forces and fighting in Ukraine. Askar Kubanychbek-uulu fled Kyrgyzstan for Russia last month. Russia’s Interior Ministry said at the time that Kubanychbek-uulu was expected to obtain Russian citizenship. According to a ruling in January by the Birinchi Mai district court, Kubanychbek-uulu was banned from leaving the Kyrgyz capital while serving a three-year probation period that was part of his seven-year suspended sentence.
Court Rejects Kyrgyz Politician’s Appeal Against Fraud Conviction (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [5/6/2024 7:20 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
A Bishkek court on May 6 rejected the appeal of Adakhan Madumarov, the leader of the United Kyrgyzstan opposition party, against his fraud conviction, saying it had been filed too late. In late March, a Bishkek court found him guilty of financial fraud and of ignoring Kyrgyzstan’s interests while signing a Kyrgyz-Tajik border deal in 2009 when he led the country’s Security Council. The court did not sentence Madumarov due to the statute of limitations but ordered him to remain in custody until the decision took force on April 26. Madumarov has called the accusations “ungrounded.”
Mudslides Caused By Heavy Rains Kill 3 In Tajikistan (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [5/6/2024 6:48 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Tajikistan’s Emergencies Committee said on May 6 that mudslides and floods caused by heavy rains killed three women over the weekend. The mudslides were registered in the Central Asian nation’s regions of Sughd, Khatlon, and the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region, as well as in several districts surrounding Dushanbe, the capital. In neighboring Kyrgyzstan, mudslides caused by heavy rains hit southern regions of Batken and Jalal-Abad on May 5, damaging local infrastructure and buildings in several districts. No casualties were reported there.
Uzbek farmers battle to save cotton, wheat crops from mortal enemy: salt (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [5/6/2024 5:00 PM, Rachel Parsons, 293K, Negative]
On an unseasonably mild spring afternoon, second-generation farmer Diyor Juraev gathered a group of worried growers in a wheat field outside Qarshi, a city in southern Uzbekistan.

They came looking for answers from a U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) delegation to an existential problem for the country’s farmers: After decades of poor irrigation in an arid land, sharply increasing deposits of salt are tainting the soil where they grow wheat and water-intensive cotton, the main Uzbek cash crop.

That’s slashing harvests and threatening livelihoods across a country where semi-desert steppes abound. It’s ringing alarm bells both in the nation of 37 million people, where agriculture accounts for nearly a third of the economy, and further afield. Bangladesh, the world’s largest ready-made garment producer, has long been a major buyer of Uzbek cotton, but its imports of the product have slumped by at least four-fifths in the space of just five years.

"Salinization has a very huge negative impact on the harvest," said farmer Juraev, also deputy director of the Southern Agricultural Research Institute (SARI). "It will decrease the level of harvest between 15% and 20%."

With salinity increasing year on year, the implications for the future of Uzbekistan are "very dangerous," Juraev said. In his region, 80% of the farmland is highly salinized. In western Uzbekistan, it is 90%, according to local authorities.

The issue has deep roots across a landlocked country slightly bigger than California, with dwindling freshwater sources to flush salt from the soil, forcing growers to reuse their salt-heavy irrigation drainage water. Disastrous Soviet era farming practices diverted water from rivers to supply the Uzbek west -- infamously draining the Aral Sea -- to feed the regime’s insatiable demand for the fluffy white fibers.

But the problem is rapidly worsening, farmers told Nikkei Asia.

Although historical water mismanagement laid the foundation for the country’s salinity problems, they said water scarcity is being exacerbated by climate change and international agreements that share river water with Uzbekistan’s neighbors. The lack of robust saline agriculture training for farmers is forcing more land out of production annually, they said.

Against a backdrop of a verdant young wheat test crop in the fields outside Qarshi, farmer Juraev interpreted for colleagues asking the visiting FAO experts to teach them what to do about it. They asked, how are other countries handling salinity problems?

The irony for the FAO delegation was that at central government level Uzbekistan has already implemented some of the most aggressive agriculture policy to address salt-affected soils in Central Asia. The conversation revealed the disconnect between those top-level policies and farmers who are losing land and money to increasingly salty soil and water.

In the last 20 years, the government has created a raft of policy steps to address the crisis, a tranche of which was enacted through various decrees by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. But officials are focused on finding solutions to decrease the cost of production, rather than increase crop yields for farmers.

"Which, in turn, is very interesting [compared with] Europe or North Africa," said Kate Negacz, a saline agriculture policy researcher at Vrije University in Amsterdam and a member of the FAO delegation.

"Here we are often talking about the cost of water and cost of energy," she said, "So we really need to look [at] how ... the energy, for example, can be cheaper, more sustainable, more renewable."

Even with all of the long-established policy, and even if the cost of water and power plummeted, many Uzbek farmers would still need hands-on support they are not getting.

"What is missing here is extension services," said Marco Arcieri, another FAO delegate and president of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, referring to specialists who work directly with farmers to bridge the gap between research and its real-world application.

"[These men] are asking for training, for development of extension services, because they want to have advice," Arcieri said.

The risks of salinization to the regional economy are serious.

According to a 2023 study in the journal Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Bangladesh imports 39% of Uzbekistan’s total cotton production. Researchers have warned that import share has been rising, adjusted for the declining Uzbek cotton crop. Trade data from the U.N. show that 2017 cotton yarn exports to Bangladesh were valued at $50 million. In 2022, that had tumbled by nearly 82% to just $9.1 million.

Still, Bangladesh has sourcing options.

"Cotton imports from Uzbekistan may have decreased because Bangladeshi spinners are receiving better offers," said Sifat Ishty, a senior lecturer of economics at Brac University in Dhaka. "They can import in rupee denominations from India, which has helped the industry significantly due to the dearth of USD reserves in Bangladeshi banks."

Although a much smaller crop than cotton, Uzbekistan’s wheat crop has similar international significance.

The country has sent a growing share of its national wheat exports, more than 37%, to its neighbor to the south, Afghanistan, since the specter of famine appeared there in 2016. The 2023 study’s authors are clear: "Shrinkage of the wheat lands in Uzbekistan could beget serious consequences and impacts on the well-being of the Afghan population."

In Qarshi, farmer Juraev’s work at research center SARI focuses on developing salt-tolerant varieties of staple crops and teaching growers regenerative practices, such as no-till farming and crop rotation.

But Juraev is realistic about what can be achieved. Although he and his colleagues are trying to address the salinity problem, it affects such a large area that there is "not enough time, not enough economic [support]," he said.

The Uzbek Ministry of Agriculture does provide 45 types of subsidies including payments for upgrading irrigation systems and the cost of electricity, since farmers often rely on power-intensive pumps to bring water to their fields.

But, Juraev said, to date there is no subsidy that specifically compensates for saline soils.

The frustration for farmers is that, according to experts, Uzbekistan is well-positioned to implement water management practices and agrarian techniques, such as shifting to salt-tolerant or salt-native crops to thrive.

The country is also open to outside guidance: The FAO team presented several seminars on saline agriculture during its visit to Uzbekistan. But in practice, few farmers attended those meetings, with local officials filling seats instead.

And Juraev pointed out that regional research centers like his, which are in a front-line position to help, are often overlooked by growers because of Uzbekistan’s centralized market. The state remains the main buyer of cotton and wheat, he said.

"Most of the farms operate on the basis of orders and instructions issued by the state management organizations," he said. "They rarely come to our institute and meet [to discuss] the solution of the existing problem."
Cotton Campaign Urges Uzbekistan to Investigate Harassment of Activists (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/6/2024 9:06 AM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Neutral]
Two years after the the Cotton Campaign called for the global boycott of Uzbek cotton to be lifted, following monitoring by groups like the Uzbek Forum for Human Rights that found “no systemic or systematic, government-imposed forced labor during the cotton harvest,” monitors continue to face difficulties in Uzbekistan.

On May 2, the Cotton Campaign urged the Uzbek government to take action to protect those engaged in independent monitoring and reporting on labor rights following the harassment of a well-known activist and a journalist in mid-April.

Umida Niyazova, the executive director of the Uzbek Forum for Human Rights, and Sharifa Madrakhimova, a journalist and human rights activist, were reportedly ambushed by two men on April 18 outside Madrakhimova’s home in the Fergana region. The women were planning to tour the region to speak to farmers and companies engaged in Uzbekistan’s lucrative cotton industry.

As the Cotton Campaign reported:

The two men intimidated and insulted Niyazova and Madrakhimova and accused Niyazova of “organizing information attacks against Uzbekistan”. Niyazova and Madrakhimova got in their car to avoid further interaction and one of the men gripped the door to prevent them from closing it and driving away. Niyazova and Madrakhimova had been traveling throughout the region to meet with farmers and representatives of cotton companies. Fearing for their own safety and that of the farmers and local human rights activists they were planning to meet, Niyazova cut her trip short.

According to the Cotton Campaign, one of the men was later identified as Shukhrat Esanov, a blogger with a YouTube following of 280,000. On April 28, he released a video further attacking Niyazova. The campaign said that Esanov knew the two women’s itinerary, “suggesting that Niyazova and Madrakhimova had been under surveillance, and raising questions about how he had access to information regarding their whereabouts and plans.”

This incident follows several others that human rights activists have highlighted as deeply troubling as they further underscore a backsliding on human rights in Uzbekistan.

In two incidents earlier in April, Cotton Campaign said, “Police summoned and interrogated for several hours a member of the Ezgulik human rights organization and a farmer, both based in Kasbi district of Kashkadarya. Police accused both of engaging in actions that are ‘harmful to Uzbekistan.’”

And in January, an independent monitor working on the Indorama Agro project – an effort to modernize cotton production in Uzbekistan financed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) – was told by government security officials that their work was “dangerous.”

The emerging theme centers on a devious accusation that human rights activists and independent monitors are deliberately hurting Uzbekistan with their activities. In exposing labor rights violations and, ultimately, the failure of the state to live up to its international commitments, these individuals are directly challenging the rosy narrative Tashkent would prefer.

Paradoxically, it was these exact monitors who paved the way for the lifting of the cotton boycott.

Allison Gill, legal director at Global Labor Justice, which hosts the Cotton Campaign, said, “Uzbek Forum’s independent monitors played a critical role in driving an end to systemic state-imposed forced labor of children and adults in the Uzbek cotton sector… And their work is vital to further Uzbekistan’s progress towards meeting international standards in its cotton and textile industry.”

The work of independent monitors , conducted under great pressure especially during the reign of Islam Karimov, identified abusive labor practices and guided the Uzbek government in addressing these issue. But their independence is key; it’s what the international community trusts and relies on. It’s also what rankles the Uzbek government.

In the Cotton Campaign’s press release regarding the harassment of Niyazova and Madrakhimova, Nate Herman, senior vice president of policy of the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA), explained, “To comply with rapidly emerging transnational supply chain human rights legislation, global brands need credible independent monitoring and reporting on labor rights at every level of their supply chains… Freedoms of speech, movement, and association are fundamental to a sustainable cotton and textile industry, and we urge the Uzbek government to ensure that independent monitors are allowed to investigate and report on labor rights without fear of reprisal.”
Central Asian Presidents to be ‘Guests of Honor’ for Russian Victory Day Parade (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/6/2024 2:14 PM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Neutral]
It’ll be a busy week in Moscow. On May 7, President Vladimir Putin will be inaugurated into an unprecedented fifth term following the March election. On May 8, the Eurasian Economic Union’s Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, comprised of members heads of state, is scheduled to meet in Moscow. It’s the organization’s 10th anniversary. On May 9, Russia marks Victory Day. And once again all five Central Asian presidents are scheduled to attend.

The May 9 holiday marks the surrender of Nazi Germany and the end of World War II, known as the Great Patriotic War across the former Soviet Union. The Soviet Union lost as many as 27 million people during World War II, an immense sacrifice of lives from Russia, but also Ukraine, Belarus, and the other constituent Soviet republics. As nationalism deepens in Russia, and Moscow’s revanchism is still on the march in Ukraine, the May 9 holiday has taken on increasing significant in the country – even as its importance fades elsewhere in the former Soviet Union.

Take Kazakhstan as an example. Kazakhstan has not held a Victory Day parade since 2019. The 2020 and 2021 parades were canceled, with authorities citing the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, the Ministry of Defense announced that there would be no parade. A member of parliament commented at the time: “Before this there were epidemic reasons, now there are economic reasons.” In 2023, defense officials cited the need to “save budget funds” and “solve other problems.” And in 2024, the ministry used the exact same language.

The holiday remains on calendars across the region, and local celebrations are sure to mark the day in many Central Asian cities, but its importance has decidedly faded. In 2022, the Uzbek Ministry of Defense announced that there would be no military parade to mark the day and a ministry spokesperson said, “In Uzbekistan, May 9 is a Day of Remembrance and Honor and not a Victory Day.”

A requiem service will be held in Bishkek, but there will be no Victory Day parade this year – and the “Immortal Regiment” march has also been canceled. The “Immortal Regiment” is ostensibly a civilian-motivated rally to commemorate and memorialize those who fought in and supported the war effort in the 1940s, built on marches of veterans from that era. In the 2010s the marches began occurring in Central Asian capitals too. But in recent years, they have not been held. Kazakhstan stopped holding the marches in 2022.

Tajikistan isn’t holding a military parade to mark May 9 this year either, and it’s unclear if its “Immortal Regiment” procession will go ahead or not.

The most prominent celebrations of May 9 have always been held in Moscow, with the guest list taking on distinct geopolitical features in recent years. On the 65th anniversary in 2010, Putin hosted leaders from Europe — including most notably then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, rather than marking a moment of great global cooperation in the fight against fascism, the Victory Day holiday has been transformed into a nationalistic display. The 2022 and 2023 celebrations took place under the watchful eye of the world, with the conflict in Ukraine framing the celebrations.

Four of the five Central Asian presidents attended the delayed-to-June Victory Day parade in 2020; only Tajikistan’s Emomali Rahmon attended in 2021 and none attended in 2022.

But in 2023, all five Central Asia presidents attended, and that trend is set to continue.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev have both announced plans to travel to Moscow on May 8-9 to attend the EAEU meeting and the Victory Day parade.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon spoke with Putin via phone on May 3 about “Issues of joint participation in ceremonial events dedicated to Victory Day in Moscow,” to which Rahmon has been invited, per a Kremlin readout. The readout went on to note, “Confidence was also expressed that the recent intensified attempts by certain forces to artificially escalate the situation around labor migrants coming to Russia, including from Tajikistan, will be jointly suppressed and will not be able to damage the time-tested fraternal relations between the peoples of the two countries.” A line from Hamlet – “The lady doth protest too much, methinks” – comes to mind, given that just over a week ago Tajik authorities cautioned citizens against travel to Russia.

Nevertheless, a May 6 press release from the Russian Foreign Ministry included Rahmon on the list of “guests of honor.” The press release also noted that Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov would be attending. (From outside Central Asia: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith, and Bissau-Guinean President Oumarou Sissokou Embalo are attending)

If, as seems to be likely, all five Central Asian presidents again attend the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, what can we infer about the state of the relationships between these countries and Russia? At the very least, Central Asia’s leaders don’t see the need to snub Russia in this instance – or much value in doing so. Attending to Putin’s thirst for pomp and circumstance by standing beside him on Victory Day is a small price to pay for countries that are dealing with all sides – and Central Asian leaders can be certain that attending will not disrupt Western efforts to court them. With so few foreign leaders willing or welcome in Moscow, Central Asia’s presidents are stepping into a glaring spotlight.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Farahnaz Forotan
@FForotan
[5/6/2024 12:52 PM, 324.9K followers, 16 retweets, 74 likes]
The empowering sight of girls trekking through mountain heights to reach their classrooms fills me with pride. Education is power, and those who fear it dwell in darkness. Yet, we know this determination will conquer any darkness. #Afghanistan Video; @UNICEFAfg

Massoud Hossaini
@Massoud151
[5/6/2024 10:30 PM, 31.2K followers, 5 retweets, 14 likes]
#TalibanTerrorist militia tortured Arozoo Kohistani for 42 days. She said they kicked her on the stomach many times causing her baby have been killed on her belly! Later her husband divorced her too!
Pakistan
Government of Pakistan
@GovtofPakistan
[5/7/2024 2:38 AM, 3.1M followers, 2 retweets, 5 likes]
The legal segregation of Pakistan International Airlines Corporation Limited (PIACL), one of the most complex restructuring exercise undertaken, has attained finality, with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) giving its approval of the Scheme of Arrangement for the transfer of non-core assets and liabilities of PIACL to PIA Holding Company Limited. SECP has directed PSX, CDC and NCCL to ensure smooth listing of PIA Holding Company Limited as per the applicable rules and regulations.

Imran Khan
@ImranKhanPTI
[5/6/2024 12:00 PM, 20.6M followers, 4.8K retweets, 9.7K likes]
LIVE | Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf’s Special Show on 9th May False Flag | May 6, 2024 https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1MnxnMvgOjYJO

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan
@ForeignOfficePk
[5/6/2024 11:20 AM, 476.7K followers, 28 retweets, 61 likes]
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 , led the Pakistan delegation to the meeting at the OIC Contact Group on Jammu and Kashmir, held in Banjul, The Gambia. He briefed the meeting on the dismal human rights situation in IIOJK and the prevailing political and security environment in the occupied territory. He urged India to respect the fundamental rights and freedoms of the Kashmiri people and grant them their inalienable right to self-determination in accordance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions.

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[5/6/2024 11:55 PM, 8.4M followers, 16 retweets, 55 likes]
Islamabad jail project was conceived in 2007. Construction started in 2020. New commissioner wants this jail operational in 100 days for beggers because Adiala jail is overcrowded. Adiala had an accommodation of 2174 prisoners but 7000 languishing there.
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/6/2024 10:53 PM, 97.6M followers, 15K retweets, 103K likes]
Voted in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections! Urging everyone to do so as well and strengthen our democracy.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/6/2024 9:23 PM, 97.6M followers, 5.2K retweets, 30K likes]
Urging all those who are voting in today’s phase to vote in record numbers. Their active participation will certainly make the elections more vibrant.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/6/2024 12:05 PM, 97.6M followers, 5.3K retweets, 34K likes]
After today’s exceptional programmes in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, reached Gujarat. In the morning tomorrow, 7th May, I will be voting in Ahmedabad. I urge all those who are to vote tomorrow to do so in record numbers as well.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/6/2024 11:30 AM, 97.6M followers, 6.2K retweets, 20K likes]
Spoke on a range of subjects in an interview to Times Network. Do watch! https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1BdGYrAWAXoJX

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/6/2024 9:16 AM, 97.6M followers, 6.1K retweets, 28K likes]
Addressed massive NDA rallies in Rajahmundry and Anakapalle. The participation of @ncbn Garu and @PawanKalyan Garu in these rallies made them even more special. Our alliance is going to the people with a positive agenda of development, development and development.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[5/6/2024 11:36 PM, 3.1M followers, 240 retweets, 1.6K likes]
The festival of our democracy is in the third phase today. Urge all voters to exercise their franchise. Your vote will make democracy stronger.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[5/6/2024 6:13 AM, 3.1M followers, 158 retweets, 688 likes]
An engaging conversation at the @EconomicTimes’ office. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1ypKdkvrWbvxW

Rajnath Singh
@rajnathsingh
[5/6/2024 9:46 PM, 24.1M followers, 626 retweets, 964 likes]
Do read my interview with the Hindustan Times, in which I have shared my thoughts on various issues and the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. @htTweets https://hindustantimes.com/cities/lucknow-news/bjps-400-slogan-a-realistic-one-india-bloc-s-x-ray-desire-will-lead-to-recession-rajnath-singh-101715014009241-amp.html

Rajnath Singh
@rajnathsingh
[5/6/2024 9:38 PM, 24.1M followers, 635 retweets, 1K likes]
Urging all those voting in today’s third phase of the Lok Sabha elections to vote in large numbers. First time voters in particular should exercise their franchise and strengthen India’s democracy.

Richard Rossow
@RichardRossow
[5/6/2024 9:55 AM, 28.7K followers, 12 likes]
U.S.-India goods trade has fourth-best month on record- $11.5b in March 2024.

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[5/7/2024 2:42 AM, 263.5K followers, 37 retweets, 93 likes]
The recent Canadian arrest of three Indian Sikh suspects does little to lend credence to Trudeau’s months-old allegation that India may have been behind the killing of a Canada-based Sikh militant wanted in India for several terrorist attacks. In making the arrests belatedly, Canadian police have presented no evidence of any outside involvement, merely saying that their investigation into India’s potential role is still “ongoing.” But the arrest of three gangsters only helps to highlight the Indian foreign minister’s comment that Trudeau’s government, apparently seeking to foment Sikh extremism and separatism in India, has for “political reasons” been giving visas to gangland members from Punjab despite New Delhi’s warnings.
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[5/6/2024 12:23 PM, 637.4K followers, 39 retweets, 129 likes]
#AwamiLeague’s student wing @bslBD1971 today organised the largest student rally expressing #Bangladesh’s unwavering support to the people of Palestine. Two Palestinian students studying in Bangladesh joined the solidarity rally at Dhaka University. #FreePalestine #SaveGaza #StandWithPalestine @saddam1971

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[5/7/2024 12:09 AM, 5.3K followers, 7 retweets, 7 likes]
Sri Lanka’s Official Reserve Assets increased by 9.6% to USD 5.43 billion in April 2024, compared to USD 4.96 billion in March 2024;
Central Asia
Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
5/6/2024 10:06 AM, 23K followers, 3 retweets, 5 likes]
U.S. Central Asia discussion w/ @RepAdamSmith @HASCDemocrats: What are Washington’s current priorities in the region, including Afghanistan? What did the most recent Congressional delegation discuss in Tashkent? How well do 🇺🇸 lawmakers know Central Asia?

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[5/6/2024 11:32 AM, 28.9K followers, 15 retweets, 25 likes]
Portraits of some of the victims of the Bloody January violence in #Kazakhstan in 2022, at an exhibition by artist Askhat Akhmedyarov in Almaty

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[5/6/2024 2:57 AM, 28.9K followers, 2 retweets, 7 likes]
Diora Usmanova goes public with her experience of domestic violence at the hands of her late husband. She is the niece of #Uzbekistan’s first lady, her husband was the nephew of Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[5/6/2024 11:06 AM, 168K followers, 1 retweet, 6 likes]
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev hosted Maxim Oreshkin, the Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation. Their discussions focused on the practical execution of high-level agreements aimed at enhancing the strategic partnership and alliance between Uzbekistan and Russia.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[5/6/2024 10:52 AM, 168K followers, 1 retweet, 7 likes]
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, on the sidelines of the Tashkent International Investment Forum, met with the Deputy Secretary-General of the @UN and Executive Secretary of the European Economic Commission, @Tatiana_Molcean. The discussion was centered on the execution of various regional and national projects.

{End of Report}
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