epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
An Afghan military helicopter crash in western Afghanistan kills at least 1 person, the Taliban say (AP)
AP [5/15/2024 5:13 AM, Staff, 22K, Negative]
An Afghan military helicopter crashed on Wednesday in Ghor province in western Afghanistan, killing at least one person, the Taliban defense ministry said.

The crash of the MI-17 was caused by a technical problem, according to a statement.

The helicopter was on a rescue mission after a vehicle carrying civilians plunged into a river near the city of Feroz Koh, the provincial capital of Ghor, the ministry said in post on the social media platform X.

Twelve passengers were injured in the crash, according to the statement. The crew tried to make an emergency landing but the helicopter hit a wall and crashed, it added.

The statement did not identify the individual who was killed in the accident and it was not clear how many people were on board.

Images posted on X show the crash site along a river, where dozens of people gathered to try to help the survivors.
Flash floods strike Afghanistan ‘hunger hotspots’ (VOA)
VOA [5/14/2024 1:03 PM, Lisa Schlein, 761K, Negative]
U.N. agencies are banding together in coordination with Afghanistan’s de facto Taliban rulers to aid hundreds of thousands of survivors of devastating flash floods that struck northeastern Afghanistan Friday.

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or OCHA, reported Monday that search and rescue operations continue. It said that 14 U.N. teams have been deployed to jointly assess the damage and needs, and that humanitarian partners “have identified available emergency stocks in the region.”

Speaking to journalists in Geneva from Kabul Tuesday, World Food Program official Timothy Anderson stressed the critical need to provide emergency food aid in the worst-affected areas, which were already facing multiple crises.

“There has been widespread destruction, death and injury in areas where people are least able to absorb shocks,” said Anderson, the WFP’s head of program in Afghanistan. “On our current information, about 540 people are dead and injured, around 3,000 houses fully or partially destroyed, 10,000 acres of orchards destroyed, and 2,000 livestock killed.

“Many of those who have survived have nothing left, no homes to return to and no food,” he said, adding that the full impact of this disaster will not be known until U.N. personnel are able to reach currently inaccessible areas.

“We are taking food via donkeys, as that is the only way we can reach some of these districts. ... So far, WFP provided the survivors with emergency food assistance, and we are planning to distribute blanket cash assistance in the coming days, which is enough to cover their basic needs for a month,” he said.

WFP reports that two of the hardest-hit areas, Baghlan and Badakhshan, are in so-called "hunger hotspots” — areas where the seasonal harvest has been destroyed and little food is available.

“These communities will still need food assistance over the summer just to survive,” Anderson said. “Our staff on the ground tell me everyone they speak to is worried less about the homes they lost and more about their destroyed agricultural land. As subsistence farmers, it is their sole source of livelihood — and already marginal to meet their basic needs.”

UNICEF reports 3.2 million Afghan children under the age of 5 suffer from malnutrition, a figure that “is set to climb.” UNICEF says undernutrition is responsible for nearly half of all deaths in children under 5 as it puts them at greater risk of dying from common infections.

Anderson said this worries him because WFP is suffering from a severe funding shortfall. He said WFP has received only 30% of the $1 billion it needs for its operation this year, forcing the agency to make drastic cuts in food aid.

Anderson said the agency is currently serving about 2 million people in Afghanistan, down from 12 million previously.

The World Health Organization reports the heavy rainfall that triggered the violent flooding has rendered several health facilities nonoperational, making it difficult for people to access essential services.

“The full extent of the damage caused by the floods is still being assessed, and WHO and local health authorities are closely looking into the situation on the ground to see what we can identify,” said Christian Lindmeier, WHO spokesperson.

He noted that WHO so far has delivered seven metric tons of essential medicines and medical supplies and has “immediately deployed a surveillance support team and other experts for flood-response activities.”

Prior to the disaster, he said, WHO had already provided enough medication for pneumonia and acute watery diarrhea, as well as enough malnutrition treatments for some 20,000 people, plus supplies for 500 trauma cases.

Additionally, he said, “Seventeen mobile health teams were deployed by WHO and health partners to support the delivery of health care.”

WFP’s Anderson said that to date, there have been no reported problems with the Taliban regarding “the integration of our female staff members” into WFP’s humanitarian operation.

“We are always very keen to ensure that all beneficiaries, all affected populations, male or female, are adequately and equally covered in our response mechanisms and processes,” he said.

While acknowledging the many competing crises in the world, the WFP official said this was no time to abandon Afghanistan. He repeated his appeal for international support, saying, “You cannot just stop feeding starving people.”
Iran hopes to boost security with Afghan border wall (Deutsche Welle)
Deutsche Welle [5/14/2024 8:29 AM, Shabnam von Hein, 2728K, Negative]
A concrete wall spanning 74 kilometers (46 miles) is to be built along a section of Iran’s border with Afghanistan and help close a known illegal crossing point, Iranian officials say.

The wall is set to be 4 meters (13 feet) high and expanded with additional barbed wire fencing.

The border between Iran and Afghanistan is about 920 kilometers long. For over 40 years, thousands have traversed rough desert and mountain terrain to enter Iran and leave behind civil war and oppression. Now, they are fleeing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

Iranian authorities see the northeastern Central Khorasan province, as well as North and South Khorasan, as the top destinations for irregular migrants from Afghanistan. The region is also thought to be an entry point for terrorists.

Now, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has allocated a budget of around €3 billion ($3.3 billion) for the army to secure parts of this border with Afghanistan over the next three years. According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, the contract includes the construction of a concrete wall and a border fence in Central Khorasan.

Iran fears further ‘IS’ attacks

The security situation on the border with Afghanistan quickly deteriorated after the Taliban seized power in August 2021, with offshoots of the so-called Islamic State (IS) carrying out several cross-border attacks in Iran over the past three years.

In January 2024, the Islamic State — Khorasan (ISIS-K), claimed responsibility for two blasts in the city of Kerman that killed over 80 people. In 2022, IS claimed responsibility for an attack on a Shiite shrine in Shiraz that killed more than a dozen people. The terror group considers the Shiite majority in Iran to be apostates from Islam.

The Iranian army’s ground troops have increased their presence on the border with Afghanistan since the Taliban came to power. Despite tightened security, however, migrants are still finding ways to cross the remote border.

Millions of Afghan refugees

The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR estimates that around 4.5 million Afghans are currently living in Iran. At least a million Afghans fled to Iran after the Taliban came to power in the summer of 2021. However, only around 50,000 of these people are registered as refugees.

Many Afghans refuse to register, for fear of deportation. They are able to blend into parts of Iranian society comparatively easily thanks to similarities in culture and language, but are also vulnerable to being exploited as cheap illegal labor.

A large percentage of Afghan refugees has no plans of ending their journey in Iran and instead see it as their first stop on the way to Europe. Those who can afford to do so turn to well-organized people-trafficking networks in Afghanistan, Iran or Turkey and pay their way westward.

Ankara is also aware of this phenomenon. To stop irregular migration, Turkey has built a 3-meter-high, 170-kilometer-long concrete wall along its 560-kilometer border with Iran.

Iran’s second try at an Afghan border wall

Iran has been planning to reinforce its border with Afghanistan with walls for more than thirty years.

The first steps were taken in 1992. At that time, a 30-kilometer-long wall was built along the border in Sistan and Balochistan province.

In addition to curbing illegal immigration, the authorities hoped to halt the smuggling of gasoline from Iran into Afghanistan, and of drugs from Afghanistan into Iran.

However, the wall was not built exactly along the border line. Instead, it was erected within Iranian territory, leaving almost 2,000 hectares of farmland on the other side. Iranian farmers are allowed to pass through the wall to get to their fields.

Since Taliban’s reclaiming of power in Kabul, this has become a safety hazard. The Taliban regime sees the wall as the actual border. Farmers who work in their fields on the other side of the wall are repeatedly attacked and beaten, and their machines are confiscated.

"This wall is neither a border wall nor a security wall," local lawmaker Mohammad Sargazi told Iranian media. "It only makes life difficult for Iranian farmers."

Other lawmakers from the region are calling for the wall to be torn down.
Move on from Afghan ‘trauma’ and address rising threat, US study says (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [5/14/2024 1:57 PM, Shaun Tandon, 11975K, Neutral]
The United States must move on from the "trauma" of two decades of war and step up counterterrorism efforts to face growing threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan, a study said Tuesday.

The study group, led by former senior US policymakers, made clear it was not advocating a return to America’s longest war which ended when President Joe Biden pulled troops from Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban regained control.

But it said that, after the overwhelming focus on counterterrorism following the September 11, 2001 attacks, the pendulum "appears to have swung in the opposite direction" as the United States focuses on competition with China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel/Hamas war.

"Both decision-makers and many who have labored within the national security agencies show signs of something like collective trauma resulting from a 20-year-long counterterrorism effort," said the study group, convened in 2022 under the US Institute of Peace.

"The tragic end of US involvement in Afghanistan has also made it a toxic issue, reinforcing inclinations to keep the region off the policy agenda and the public’s radar," it said.

But it said that extremist movements are "gaining strength in ways that threaten US and allied interests" and have found a "range of new opportunities for regrouping, plotting and collaborating" in Afghanistan.

It pointed to the Islamic State of Khorasan, Taliban rivals who have nonetheless found a haven in Afghanistan and were implicated in a major attack in March in Moscow, and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has been waging an armed campaign against Islamabad.

The report called on the United States to be "less restrictive" on the use of force against threats in Afghanistan -- not a return to conventional war but pursuing military action against direct threats identified to the United States.

It also called for the United States to consider "shows of force" such as flying drones to pressure Taliban leaders to sever persistent ties with Al-Qaeda.

Noting a drop in US intelligence and capabilities since the withdrawal, the study called for the United States again to work with Pakistan, including on fighting militants and securing long-term US access to Pakistani airspace.

Pakistan became a top US aid recipient during the Afghanistan war but US officials long believed that Islamabad was playing a double-game and keeping the Taliban alive.

The Biden administration has shown little interest in engaging Pakistan, an inclination not helped by the tumultuous politics inside the world’s fifth most populous country.

"You’ve got a lot of people currently serving at the highest levels of the US government who have a strong distaste for Pakistan based on experience during the 20 years in Afghanistan," said Laurel Miller, co-chair of the study group, who served as the US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and now heads The Asia Foundation.

"There’s a strong feeling of Pakistan having been disingenuous, to say the least, with the United States," she told AFP.

"But there are certain immutable realities, which include that Pakistan is next door to Afghanistan, which currently is a sanctuary for terrorist groups," she said.

"So I think there’s just no choice other than to have a kind of relationship with Pakistan that enables the US to protect its own interests in the region."

She said that US policy on Pakistan was also affected by the "zero-sum view" of India, a growing partner of Washington which has long criticized US ties with its neighbor and historic adversary.

The study called for the United States to make clear to Pakistan "serious negative repercussions" if militants based in the country again attack India.

The report’s other co-chair was Michael Nagata, a retired army lieutenant general with experience in counterterrorism.

Other members of the group included Anne Patterson and Michael McKinley, former US ambassadors to Pakistan and Afghanistan respectively, and prominent scholars.
Pakistan
Missile fired by a drone kills 4 members of a family in Pakistan near the Afghan border, police say (AP)
AP [5/14/2024 8:20 AM, Staff, 22K, Negative]
A missile fired by a drone struck a house in a former stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban in northwestern Pakistan along the Afghan border before dawn Tuesday, killing at least four villagers, including children, police said.

The strike happened in South Waziristan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, local police chief Hidayat Ullah said. He said it was not immediately clear who fired the missile and officers were investigating. The Pakistan army evicted Pakistani Taliban insurgents from the region years ago, but they have been regrouping there.

Those killed in the missile strike were civilians with no known links to the insurgents. Villagers put their bodies on a road near a military camp and protested the killings and demanded information about who was responsible.

Most of the previous drone strikes in the area were carried out by the United States or the Pakistan army.

There was no immediate comment from the government or the military about the strike. The Pakistani Taliban, officially known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, is separate from but a close ally of the Afghan Taliban. It has been emboldened by the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021.
Pakistan wants to speed up China-linked project amid fears over fatal attacks (South China Morning Post)
South China Morning Post [5/14/2024 9:14 AM, Ashraf Khan, 951K, Neutral]
Pakistan aims to accelerate one of the showcase projects under the Belt and Road Initiative during the four-day visit by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar to China even as it grapples with major security and economic challenges.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - estimated to be worth US$62 billion by the Brookings Institution – is the most high-profile symbol of bilateral cooperation between the two nations. However, a surge in attacks against Chinese nationals building plants and elsewhere in Pakistan in recent years has cast a shadow on the CPEC.

Launched in 2015, the 15-year project aims to connect the Pakistani port of Gwadar with the Chinese city of Kashgar through a network of highways, railways, and energy projects and stimulate growth in Pakistan’s economy across sectors from manufacturing to tech.

During his visit from Monday, Dar will co-chair the fifth Pakistan-China Foreign Minister Strategic Dialogues with China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and discuss economic and other partnerships.

Over the past few years, a series of deadly attacks have targeted Chinese nationals linked to the CPEC and Pakistani security installations.

“Chinese concerns on the safety of their nationals in Pakistan are very much legitimate,” former foreign minister Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri told This Week in Asia.

“We have to do much more than what we have done for their security.”

Among the notable incidents were the attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, Pakistan’s financial hub, in 2018 and an assault in 2020 on the Pakistan Stock Exchange, in which Chinese entities hold a 40 per cent stake.

In 2022, the Karachi University’s Confucius Centre, a Chinese language and cultural centre, was the target of a suicide bombing that killed three Chinese teachers and a Pakistani national.

The attacks were attributed to separatist factions including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other ethnic Baloch and Sindhi insurgent groups that vehemently oppose the CPEC, perceiving it as a threat to their identity and fearing that its success would turn them into a minority.
The most recent deadly attack occurred on March 26, when five Chinese engineers were killed in Pakistan’s northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

The series of attacks in recent years has caused a strain in relations between China and Pakistan and prompted calls for Islamabad to tighten security at industrial sites where Chinese workers are based.

Jiang Zaidong, the Chinese ambassador to Islamabad wrote in a local publication about the “heart-wrenching” terrorist attack that caused the deaths of the Chinese nationals. “We should do everything possible to protect their safety and value their contribution [to CPEC].”

The attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was believed to be carried out by an Islamist group affiliated with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Pakistan claimed was based in neighbouring Afghanistan.

“That attack shows destabilising external factors against the CPEC, whereas Baloch insurgents from the left wing are said to have backing from external elements,” said Muneeb Salam, a research associate at the China Pakistan Study Centre of the Institute of Strategic Studies, referring to Islamabad’s accusations of the involvement of groups linked to India and Afghanistan in the attack.

Since the launch of the CPEC, thermal and hydropower plants with a combined capacity of around 16,700 megawatts have been built by Chinese companies across Pakistan and helped the country address its energy shortages.

However, Pakistan’s large budget deficit and poor balance of payments could slow progress in the CPEC and threaten to edge the country towards defaulting on its payment obligations under the project.

Pakistan owes a staggering 2000 billion rupees (US$7.2 billion) to its Chinese partners for CPEC-related debts - a heavy burden on a nation with only US$14.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

“Rolling over and negotiating concessions on that front won’t be a smooth sail for Pakistan,” said Asif Ali Qureshi, chief executive of Optimus Capital Management.

Dar’s visit is expected to focus on several goals under the next phase of the CPEC, including establishing special economic zones in Pakistan’s four provinces and modernising its agricultural sector.

Pakistan will need to focus on CPEC developments with commercial viability and improve its capability to attract foreign investors, Qureshi said.
The visit comes amid closer relations between Pakistan and the United States even as Islamabad deepens its economic partnership with China.

Kasuri said that one of the key planks of Pakistan’s foreign policy is its “steadfast commitment to China”. As such, Pakistan should not be forced to choose a side in the US-China rivalry.

He added: “Being a sovereign state, we must get along with both global powers while prioritising our national interests.”
Pakistan Government Sets the Stage for Reforms: Will the Public Embrace Change? (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/14/2024 7:24 AM, Umair Jamal, 201K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s new government seems determined to address the country’s financial woes by privatizing dozens of loss-making state-owned enterprises. Stressing that there is “no such thing” as strategic state-owned enterprises, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said that the government is committed to the privatization and reform agenda.

Addressing a media conference in Lahore, the finance minister emphasized that there is “no going back” on the privatization plans, as the country’s “hands have been forced.”

Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar echoed similar sentiments, stating that the government will limit its business to only strategic and essential state-owned enterprises.

The urgency behind this move is obvious. The Shehbaz Sharif government, supported by Pakistan’s powerful military, is seeking to reduce the financial burden caused by the continued losses of state-owned enterprises. These losses are exacerbated by issues such as massive power thefts, a bloated workforce of politically appointed employees, and tax collection problems stemming from the Federal Board of Revenue’s reluctance to implement reforms.

Additionally, sectors like real estate have long operated without an active taxation regime while power, petroleum, and food-related relief arrangements have further strained the government’s resources. With high inflation and businesses operating at reduced capacity, the public is only interested in seeking relief, subsidies, and concessions. They are not prepared for new taxation measures. This might make the finance minister’s job of putting Pakistan on a trajectory of export-led growth even more challenging.

The new government faces political landmines as it navigates the complex task of restructuring the state-owned enterprises and implementing reforms. Reports suggest that efforts to bring more retailers and traders into the tax net could potentially alienate the core base of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which suffered a massive setback in its stronghold of Punjab in recent elections.

The ongoing wheat crisis has also angered the rural middle-income communities in Punjab, as the government lacks the resources to purchase wheat, having recently imported a significant amount.

The upcoming budget, likely to be in line with International Monetary Fund (IMF) demands, may lack relief measures for the public, further upsetting the masses across the country.

However, the silver lining is that Pakistan recognizes the urgent need for reforms, and the international community is taking note of the country’s determination to introduce major changes.

Wall Street bank Citi has projected that Pakistan will likely reach an agreement with the IMF for a new four-year $8 billion program by the end of July, which could positively impact the country’s 2027 international bonds. Moreover, the Pakistan Stock Exchange has witnessed a surge in activity in recent weeks, with the index crossing the significant threshold of 74,000 points, indicating investor confidence and optimism about the economic outlook.

Additionally, there are expectations of a major rollover from China, while Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are expected to make significant investments in the privatization of loss-making enterprises and other projects. This bodes well for Pakistan, as it could pave the way for other investors, as the stakes for stability in the country grow.

These measures are backed by the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), a civil-military-led body that is approving all strategic-level reforms, cutting red tape, and pushing for support for the reform agenda. This at least shows that both the civil and military leaderships are in sync with the need to move forward with the reform agenda.

The urgency to address the country’s financial woes is clear, and the government seems determined to take bold steps to turn the tide. The bigger and perhaps key challenge for the government in the short run could be how people, businesses, and political and other domestic vested interests react to these reforms.

If the government can navigate that, it could turn the page on Pakistan’s economy.
India
14 dead after massive billboard in Mumbai collapses on gas station (Washington Post)
Washington Post [5/14/2024 8:38 AM, Kelsey Ables, 6.9M, Negative]
At least 14 people were killed and more than 70 injured when a massive billboard collapsed on a gas station in Mumbai during a violent dust storm and heavy rainfall Monday, local officials said.

Mumbai police said the billboard, which measured about 230 by 164 feet (70 by 50 meters), collapsed at about 4:30 p.m. local time. Video of the incident shows a gray sky thick with dust as the massive structure falls directly on the gas station with a loud crash.

Rescue work continued at site in the eastern suburb of Ghatkopar on Tuesday morning. Police and local officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Local broadcaster NDTV reported that the billboard’s metal frame tore through the roof of several cars at the gas station when it fell. Authorities are looking into whether the agency behind the advertisement had permission to erect it, NDTV said.

The chief minister of Maharashtra state, Eknath Shinde, said on social media that the municipal administration has been instructed to investigate the accident and file a homicide case against those responsible. He said the government would pay for the medical treatment of those injured, and that families of the deceased will receive about $6,000.

He also said that an audit of all hoardings in Mumbai would be conducted and that instructions have been given to remove dangerous hoardings immediately.

High winds, fierce rains and a dust storm took the city by surprise Monday, upending transportation, uprooting trees and causing power outages. Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport halted flight operations for over an hour, prompting the diversion of more than a dozen flights, NDTV reported.

Heavy rains are a fixture of Mumbai’s climate. Its monsoon season typically stretches from June to September, a period during which flooding, landslides and home collapses are increasingly common amid climate change.

There have been several other deadly incidents involving billboards in India. Last June, a billboard outside a stadium in the northern city of Lucknow collapsed on an SUV, killing a 14-year-old and her mother, the Hindustan Times reported. The same month, three workers were crushed to death while working on a hoarding in the city of Coimbatore in the south, the Hindu newspaper reported.

An op-ed in the Hindu said such accidents were “no rarity” and attributed them in part to “a lack of manpower” in municipalities to assess unlicensed hoardings, “periodically inspect authorized billboards, and act against unstable or illegal ones.”
Huge billboard in Mumbai toppled by storm, killing more than a dozen people in India’s financial capital (CBS News)
CBS News [5/14/2024 11:39 AM, Arshad R. Zargar, 76K, Negative]
At least 14 people were killed and 74 others injured when a massive billboard collapsed in India’s financial capital of Mumbai during a severe wind and dust storm on Monday evening.

The metal billboard — bigger than an Olympic-sized swimming pool at 120 feet in length and height — had overlooked a gas station in the Mumbai suburb of Ghatkopar before it collapsed onto the business, crushing cars and people below.

Videos shared on social media showed the billboard — which had been marketed as Asia’s largest — blowing around before it collapsed in the blinding dust storm, which was followed by heavy rains that disrupted flights and traffic in the city.

Rescuers worked through the night and into Tuesday afternoon, using heavy machinery to cut through the mangled metal debris of the collapsed structure to find survivors and retrieve bodies.

Maharashtra state’s top government official, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, called the incident "painful and sad" and vowed "strict action" against the billboard’s owners. He also announced government compensation of 500,000 Indian rupees (about $6,000) for every family that had someone killed in the accident.

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), Mumbai’s municipal body, said in a statement that the billboard’s owner, the Ego Media agency, did not have a permit to erect the huge structure.

The hoarding was nine times larger than what was permitted, according to the BMC.

Police have registered a case of culpable homicide against Bhavesh Bhinde, the owner of Ego Media.

The BMC was ordered to carry out a safety audit of all hoardings in the sprawling, densely populated city, and to take down any deemed dangerous, Shinde said in a social media post.

Mumbai is India’s commercial and financial hub, and it’s home to hundreds of towering advertising billboards – a concern as climate change fuels ever more intense storms, which often bring with them severe winds and rain.

The city is often crippled by flooding during the monsoon season, which stretches from June to September.
India’s top court orders release of journalist held in illegal funding case (Reuters)
Reuters [5/15/2024 4:34 AM, Arpan Chaturvedi and Sudipto Ganguly, 5.2M, Neutral]
India’s Supreme Court has ordered the release of the founder-editor of a news portal accused by police of receiving illegal funding from China, saying his arrest was invalid more than seven months afterwards, his lawyers said on Wednesday.

Police arrested Prabir Purkayastha early in October and raided the New Delhi office of NewsClick and the homes of journalists and writers linked to the English-language news site.

On Wednesday, the court said Purkayastha was not notified of the grounds for his arrest in a timely manner, according to his lawyer, Arshdeep Singh Khurana.

Purkayastha will be released from custody after furnishing a bail bond to a lower court, said Nitin Saluja, another lawyer in the case.

The investigation began after a report in the New York Times in August identified NewsClick as part of a global network receiving funds from American billionaire Neville Roy Singham, allegedly to publish Chinese propaganda.

Police accused Purkayastha of conspiring to disrupt India’s sovereignty and cause disaffection, saying he had received large funds from China to push biased news criticising Indian policies and projects and defending Chinese policies and programmes.

At the time, NewsClick said it does not publish news or information at the behest of any Chinese entity or authority, and does not take directions from Neville Roy Singham on its content.

Media rights watchdogs and opposition groups in India have called the investigation into NewsClick and the surrounding accusations part of a crackdown on the media - a charge dismissed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
India’s Modi denies stoking divisions to win election, files nomination (Reuters)
Reuters [5/14/2024 8:17 AM, Shivam Patel, 5239K, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi defended himself against criticism that he is stoking divisions between Hindus and Muslims to win national elections as he filed his nomination on Tuesday for re-election from one of Hinduism’s holiest cities.

India began voting April 19 in the seven-phase election in which Modi, 73, is seeking to be the second prime minister to win a third straight term since independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru.

Although Modi began his campaign by showcasing his economic record, governance and popularity, he has changed tack after the first phase to accuse the main opposition Congress party of being pro-Muslim.

Analysts say this was likely aimed at firing up the base of his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party after a low turnout in the first phase sparked doubts that BJP and its allies could win the landslide that the party sought.

"I believe people of my country will vote for me," Modi told broadcaster CNN-News18 in Varanasi, his parliamentary constituency in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh.

"The day I start talking about Hindu-Muslim (in politics) will be the day I lose my ability to lead a public life," Modi said, speaking in Hindi. "I will not do Hindu-Muslim. That is my resolve."

Modi’s critics often accuse him and BJP of targeting minority Muslims to please their hardline voters, which he and the party deny.

While Hindus make up about 80% of India’s 1.4 billion people, it also has the world’s third-largest Muslim population of about 200 million.

Congress has complained to the Election Commission that Modi made "deeply objectionable" comments about Muslims in an April 21 speech, violating poll rules. The commission has sought a response from the BJP on the complaint.

In that speech, Modi accused Congress of planning to do a wealth concentration survey, seize properties and redistribute them, which Congress has denied.

He said at the time: "During their (Congress) previous government, they said that Muslims have the first right on the wealth of the nation. That means, who will they redistribute this wealth to? They will give it those who have more children, to infiltrators."

On Tuesday, Modi said he did not name any community in that speech, even as he continued to focus on the theme.

"I have neither said Hindu or Muslim. I have said you should have as many children as you can support," Modi said.
Indian Kashmir records second-highest voter turnout in decades (VOA)
VOA [5/14/2024 4:29 PM, Muheet Ul Islam, 761K, Neutral]
Voter turnout in Indian Kashmir neared record highs Monday as residents swarmed polling stations across Srinagar in the first national election since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 nullification of the Himalayan region’s semi-autonomous status.

Marking the second-highest voting percentage in more than three decades, Monday’s turnout of at least 36% reverses a long-running trend of unusually low vote counts. More than double the 2019 election turnout of 14.43%, Monday’s turnout, according to regional election officials, remains lower than India’s national average of 62%.

“Overall, the polling process was peaceful, with no negative incidents occurring during the voting process as well as during the campaigning period,” said Jammu and Kashmir’s Chief Electoral Officer Pandurang Kundbarao Pole, who said none of Srinagar’s 2,135 polling booths went unused.

Roiled by a 35-year insurgency against Indian rule that has killed tens of thousands, turnout in past elections was impacted by boycotts and threats of militant attacks.

Pole said security throughout the Kashmir Valley, which Modi’s 2019 ruling bifurcated into two federally governed territories of Jammu-and-Kashmir and Ladakh, has improved, resulting in increased turnout.

“I arrived at 6 a.m. to cast my vote. This is the first time I have voted because I want to see the change,” Srinagar resident Muzamil Rashid Mir told VOA. “Our rights and dignity were snatched from us by the central government. I have shown faith in democracy by exercising my franchise. I want to see the rolling back of the special status.”

While some polling stations saw enormous and demographically diverse crowds waiting in long lines amid tight security, others had a picnic-like atmosphere with people serving tea, bread and biscuits.

With Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) skipping elections in Kashmir for the first time since 1996, saying it will support regional parties instead, the main players are the National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which have focused on restoration of semi-autonomy in their campaigns.

Mir says he’s backing NC’s Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi and PDP’s Waheed-ur-Rehman Parra.

“Mehdi has been vocal about our special status while on the other hand, Parra has been vocal, too, about the rights people of Kashmir have been demanding for years,” Mir said. “I want one among the two to win the seat.”

Some locals, such as 80-year-old Fata Begum, say BJP’s style of governance has left voters no choice but to reject “forceful decisions imposed” upon them.

“Inflation has surged and smart meters have been installed in our homes even though the economic conditions are weak and our youth are unemployed. This is all because of Modi,” Begum told VOA.

NC Provincial President Nasir Aslam Wani told VOA that all prominent candidates are prepared take a tough stance in parliament to represent the will of Kashmir Valley voters.

“The outcome is the result of a 2019 decision taken by the BJP,” Wani said. “The candidates will fight for the rights that people have been demanding.”

Meanwhile, President Modi praised members of the Srinagar Parliamentary Constituency for the high turnout, which he called “significant and better than before.”

“The abrogation of Article 370," the constitutional clause granting Jammu and Kashmir special status "has enabled the potential and aspirations of the people to find full expression,” Modi commented on the X social media platform. “Happening at the grassroots level, it is great for the people of J&K, in particular the youth.”

Kashmir is disputed by India, which rules the populous Kashmir Valley and the Hindu-dominated region of Jammu, and Pakistan, which controls a wedge of territory in the west. China holds a thinly populated high-altitude area in the north.

The highest Kashmir Valley voter turnout of 40.94% was recorded in 1996, according to regional election officials. Despite large-scale allegations of "coercive voting," according to Indian journalist Anuradha Bhasin, that election cycle was largely touted by Indian government officials as "progress towards democracy after decades of separatist insurgency in Kashmir."
Narendra Modi Is Preparing for a Thousand-Year Legacy (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [5/14/2024 11:00 PM, Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Daniel Ten Kate, 5543K, Neutral]
On a brisk January morning in the northern Indian town of Ayodhya, Narendra Modi dressed in a traditional kurta almost as white as his signature beard for a moment he had yearned for nearly his entire life.

In a ceremony broadcast live across the world’s most populous nation, India’s 73-year-old prime minister put his face to the ground and fully prostrated himself before a statue of Ram, pressing his palms together above his head in submission to a god that many Hindus believe is the supreme being of the universe.

The gesture marked the culmination of an event to consecrate a new temple on a site believed to be Ram’s birthplace, where a mosque had stood for nearly five centuries until a Hindu mob destroyed it in 1992. Modi called on India’s 1.4 billion people to expand their consciousness “from the divine to the nation, from Ram to the entire nation” — a phrase he repeated six times. The official translation of his 36-minute speech included 15 exclamation marks.

“The generations after a thousand years will remember our nation-building efforts today,” declared Modi, who underwent an 11-day Hindu purification ritual prior to the occasion in which he slept on floormats and only drank coconut water. “From today, from this sacred moment, we must lay the foundation for the next thousand years.”

For Modi, the melding of religion and politics has been a lifelong project that has turned him into one of the world’s most popular and polarizing leaders. While Indian elections are notoriously unpredictable, pre-election polls show his Hindu-dominant Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, is poised to win another majority when a six-week national election winds up on June 4, extending his 10-year rule and all but assuring he’ll hold the office continuously for the longest period since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister.

With Asia’s third-largest economy presenting an exceptional growth opportunity over the next decade as China slows, it’s more important than ever for global investors to understand where Modi plans to take India in his second decade in power. The nation’s stock market capitalization briefly overtook Hong Kong this year as the fourth largest in the world, and Modi is becoming an increasingly important geopolitical player as the US courts India as a counterweight to China.

“Prime Minister Modi is almost single-handedly responsible for the BJP’s popularity,” said Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, chief India economist at TS Lombard, a UK-based research firm. “And his larger-than-life persona does create a key-man risk.”

Bloomberg spoke with several dozen people who have seen Modi up close over the years, including supporters such as childhood friends and government officials as well as former associates who have since fallen out with him, to understand how the prime minister’s core beliefs shape the way he makes decisions. Several asked not to be identified, fearing reprisals from Modi and his supporters.

Modi’s office declined requests for an interview for this story.

What emerges is a portrait of a man who appears on the surface to have many contradictions.

He’s dogmatic when it comes to religion but is largely a pragmatist on economic policy. He speaks of India in thousand-year increments but pores over the smallest details of government programs. He lives modestly but cares deeply about his image. He’s a champion of the poor and a friend to billionaires. He wins democratic elections but faces accusations of suppressing political rivals and largely avoids unscripted media encounters. He unites Hindus who account for 80% of India’s population but has left religious minorities — particularly Muslims — feeling marginalized, unwanted and fearful.

The common thread, according to those who know him, is a belief that he’s been divinely chosen to restore India’s historical place as a Hindu nation by rectifying centuries of subjugation, from the conquests of Muslim emperors who produced the Taj Mahal and Old Delhi’s Red Fort to the period of British colonization that ended in 1947. During his annual Independence Day speech last August, Modi declared that India was “at the milestone between 1,000 years of slavery and 1,000 years of a grand future that is about to come.”

Modi is “very conscious of his image in history” and wants “to ensure that Hindu and Indian culture survives the next thousand years,” said Sheela Bhatt, an Indian journalist who has known him personally since the early 1980s. “Election will ensure the power, and power will ensure the longevity of Hindu culture.”

“Modi has understood this society very well, that we are religious people — in government, outside government, within the society, covertly, overtly, religious people,” she added. “When you meet Modi, you should be knowing that science and technology is under that huge religious umbrella.”

Understanding that worldview is key to grasping how Modi makes decisions. He’ll welcome overseas investors if they can make India a strong Hindu nation, but not foreign human-rights groups, missionaries and journalists who challenge that vision. Policies like a free food program for 60% of the population help India’s poor and keep the BJP in power, while support for billionaires like Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani — Asia’s two richest men — is also necessary to build strong national champions and make India self-reliant.

On the world stage, Modi hugs world leaders as diverse as Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He’ll move closer to the US to keep China at bay, while also buying up cheap Russian oil to keep prices down at home. He holds friendly conversations with Bill Gates about healthcare and climate change while his government also restricts foreign funds for Greenpeace and World Vision, a Christian group that has worked with malnourished children in India for more than 70 years.

His tenure has seen the emergence of a more confident India, willing to hold its corner in a rapidly fragmenting geopolitical order. It has also appeared, at times, reckless in handling perceived threats to territorial integrity. Canadian police this month charged four Indian nationals with first-degree murder in the death of a Sikh separatist activist and said officers are actively investigating links to Modi’s government, which has dismissed the allegation as “absurd.” India has separately blamed a “rogue operative” for a foiled murder plot against a Sikh activist that prompted US authorities to file charges.

Although Modi’s Hindu nationalism “put the pride back” in the country and laid the groundwork for an economic transformation, foreign investors may increasingly focus on whether minorities are being treated fairly before deploying the amount of capital India needs to reach its potential, according to Gary Dugan, Dubai-based chief investment officer at the Global CIO Office, which advises wealth-management companies.

“The fear is that in this nationalism focused on one religion as opposed to the plethora of religions in India, that that would not align with people’s strict interpretation of ESG,” said Dugan, who has traveled to India almost 100 times in his career. “The system at the moment does not look fair. It looks like Hinduism is in the ascendancy and other religions and other beliefs are pushed down.”

Modi’s imposition of a Hindu-centric worldview is already exacerbating societal divisions in a nation that recognizes more than 20 official languages and is home to approximately 200 million Muslims, the third-most of any country. A recent poll found that 67% of Muslims said that getting a job has become “harder” for them, a higher percentage than the lowest Hindu castes who participated in the survey.

Economic inequality is also rising. A recent study by economists including Thomas Piketty found that 1% of India’s population earns more than a fifth of total income — the highest share since data was first collected in the 1920s.

“We are headed towards a polarized, divided society,” said Palaniappan Chidambaram, a former Indian finance minister in the government immediately before Modi took power in 2014. “Democracy’s in peril, economic inequalities have widened. And I’m afraid if the BJP continues for another term, it will become even worse.”

Modi’s domination of Indian politics is rooted in his upbringing in Vadnagar, a small town in the western state of Gujarat, where he was one of six children. Much of his childhood is now the stuff of unverifiable legends — playing with crocodiles, acting in plays and helping out at his father’s tea stall — but by modern standards he grew up in relative poverty.

Living in a house without electricity or a working toilet, Modi and many other children in town would take baths in a nearby pond and relieve themselves close by, according to Shyamlal Das Modi, a childhood friend who isn’t a blood relative but says he was raised by the prime minister’s mother after his own passed away.

“No matter what function there was in the school, he would always stand at the forefront,” Shyamlal Das Modi said of the prime minister. “He was a master of words. We weren’t as talented as him.”

Narendra Modi soon showed his defiant side. Wed as a teenager in a marriage arranged by his family, as is customary throughout parts of India, he decided to leave his young wife behind and devote his life to Hinduism.

“At home, there used to be arguments every day,” Shyamlal Das Modi said. “They would say he shouldn’t leave. He told them, ‘No matter what you do, I will definitely go.’”

Before heading off on a journey that he said took him to monasteries in the Himalayas, Modi burned family photos, discarded most of his clothes and bent to touch his mother’s feet to receive a blessing, even as she urged him to stay, according to his family members.

When he returned to Gujarat a few years later, sometime around 1970, Modi became a full-time worker in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, or RSS, a non-governmental organization open only to Hindu males that advocates a more muscular brand of Hinduism. The group has been intermittently banned in India, most famously in 1948 after a member assassinated Mahatma Gandhi, who espoused principles of non-violence and tolerance for minorities in the fight for India’s independence.

During this period, Modi had little to his name. He would often sleep on the floor, get rides from friends on the back of a motorcycle and eat simple meals of rice and dal. His friends recall that he always seemed to be reading and was obsessed with cleanliness.

Modi began to rise in the RSS and was eventually transferred over to the Bharatiya Janata Party, the political arm of the Hindu nationalist movement. His big break would come in 1990, when he helped organize a six-week procession through several states to convince the public it was necessary to knock down a centuries-old mosque in Ayodhya in order to build a temple dedicated to Ram. A Hindu mob destroyed the mosque two years later, causing nationwide riots and polarizing India.

As he climbed through the ranks of the BJP, Modi often challenged his own colleagues. In the mid-1990s, Modi moved to undermine the party’s own leader in the state in a bid to take the top job. The infighting prompted local colleagues to banish him to New Delhi, India’s capital.

“Everyone’s demand was to remove Modi from here — all these problems are because of him,” said Mulchand Rana, who worked with Modi in the RSS at the time. “His entire working, his day-to-day life, all were political in nature.”

But Modi would have the last laugh. By-election losses prompted the BJP’s national leadership to send Modi back to Gujarat, and he was soon sworn in as chief minister.

Just months into his new job, however, Modi faced a crisis that threatened to end his career. In February 2002, Hindu karsevaks, or religious volunteers, were returning from a pilgrimage to Ram’s birthplace in Ayodhya when a compartment of a train they were traveling in was set ablaze. At least 59 people died. Just hours later, Modi described the incident as a “pre-planned violent act of terrorism.”

That framing immediately pointed the finger at Muslims and helped spark violence in the state, according to Suresh Mehta, a former Gujarat chief minister in the 1990s and a one-time colleague of Modi in the BJP. Riots soon broke out, killing more than 700 Muslims and nearly 250 Hindus.

“He wanted to aggravate the situation although he was the chief minister,” said Mehta, who had a falling out with Modi.

Modi has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. The Supreme Court in 2022 endorsed the findings of an investigation that found no direct or indirect evidence that Modi did anything wrong. Some 31 Muslims were eventually convicted for setting the train on fire.

But perceptions that Modi did little to stop the riots sparked an immediate backlash against him. Even members of his own party were shocked by violent scenes broadcast across India on live television.

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a BJP member, dressed down Modi shortly afterward in a visit to the state. “For a ruler, there can be no differentiation among the subjects,” Vajpayee said at a press conference with Modi by his side on April 4, 2002. “Not on the basis of birth, not caste, not religion.”

“That is what we are following, sir,” Modi replied at the time.

Although the party debated whether to dismiss Modi, he hung onto his job. Instead of being chastened, Modi oversaw a defiantly pro-Hindu campaign for re-election in the state, even referring to relief camps set up for tens of thousands of Muslims who lost their homes in the riots as “baby-making factories” — a dog whistle for Hindu nationalists with the unfounded fear that Muslims, who make up about 14% of the citizenry, will soon become more populous in India.

Modi’s BJP ended up winning 70% of seats, the biggest victory for any party in Gujarat in nearly two decades, turning him into an unapologetic defender of Hindu rights at a time when secular values were still dominant. Yet he still had a reputational problem, with investors shunning the state. Eventually, Modi would face travel bans from the US, UK and European Union.

To rehabilitate his image, Modi turned to some of India’s wealthiest men. He started calling dozens of the country’s top industrialists to attend an investment summit known as Vibrant Gujarat, according to PK Laheri, the top bureaucrat in Gujarat at the time.

“There was considerable pressure on us to do something,” Laheri said. “Mr. Modi personally talked to most of them, and assured them that his government would extend all the necessary support for them to do business quickly.”

It proved a success, and soon became a biennial event drawing investment pledges worth hundreds of millions of dollars from the likes of Ambani and Adani.

Over the next decade, without ever shedding his core Hindu-first beliefs, Modi would become known for business-friendly policies, attracting high-profile investments by offering companies land, reliable power, tax exemptions and low-cost loans. The state’s economic growth and per capita income increased at a faster pace than the rest of India.

That record, combined with Modi’s charisma on the campaign trail, helped the BJP sweep to power in 2014 with the biggest national electoral mandate in 30 years.

During his first term as prime minister, Modi largely fulfilled a campaign promise to prioritize toilets over temples, carrying out programs — including many initiated by the previous government — to give the poor cheap cooking gas, running water, electricity, housing and bank accounts, in which they could directly receive cash payments instead of going through often-corrupt intermediaries. He also ramped up infrastructure spending and passed macroeconomic reforms, including an inflation target and a goods and services tax that created a unified market in India for the first time.

He did take one major ideological misstep in 2016, stunning India by removing 86% of cash in circulation overnight in a bid to root out alleged ill-gotten gains — a move that disproportionately affected the poor and ultimately failed to find large stashes of either fake currency or so-called “black money.”

But it ended up having little impact on the 2019 election. Just months before the vote, a suicide attack killed 40 Indian security personnel in the restive state of Jammu and Kashmir, prompting Modi to order airstrikes targeting terrorist training camps inside neighboring Pakistan. He rode the nationalist fervor to a resounding win, expanding the BJP’s majority in parliament.

After his victory in 2019, Modi wasted no more time in implementing longstanding goals of India’s Hindu nationalists. First his government scrapped the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim majority state. Then it passed a citizenship law that openly discriminated against Muslims. Finally, as soon as the country’s top court gave the green light, Modi laid the foundation stone for the lavish Ram Temple in Ayodhya, sealing his near-godlike status among the Hindu right.

On the campaign trail, Modi alternates between touting tangible benefits to the poor like cheap cooking gas, and accusing his opponents of failing to support the Ram Temple, of betraying Hinduism, and of appeasing Muslims. The BJP manifesto includes a pledge to implement a uniform civil code, an enduring wish of Hindu nationalists that would do away with special rules for specific religions, including Islam.

One big reason for Modi’s electoral success is his move to undercut India’s caste-based politics. Under Modi, the traditionally upper-caste BJP has become more inclusive in a bid to unify the Hindu vote. He implemented welfare programs targeting lower castes and women and began identifying more as an “Other Backward Class,” a group of castes that make up about 40% of the population. He also more than tripled the BJP’s membership to 174 million in 2019, in part by building a network of volunteers assigned to nearly all voting booths nationwide, according to The New BJP, a book by Nalin Mehta detailing how Modi turned the party into the dominant political force in India.

Modi’s style of governance effectively ensures he has no major rivals within his party. He’s so central to the BJP that it titled its latest manifesto Modi’s Guarantee. The 76-page document references the prime minister’s name 65 times, and includes 53 photos of him.

He often bypasses his cabinet ministers and speaks directly with bureaucrats who implement policy, according to officials who asked not to be identified speaking about private matters.

Ministers aren’t relevant “because he gets them elected,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, an analyst with Eurasia Group who worked for two prime ministers, including Modi, as a member of India’s National Security Advisory Board. His cabinet members are there “to just explain policy to the general public and defend it against the opposition.”

The two names most often mentioned as successors — Home Minister Amit Shah, 59, and Yogi Adityanath, 51, a Hindu monk who runs Uttar Pradesh, India’s most-populous state — are unlikely to directly challenge him anytime soon.

Asked in a recent TV interview whether he would contest elections in 2029, Modi said: “No country should run on one man.” But he did not rule out standing for a fourth term. At a public forum in March, he drew applause by saying he was preparing for India’s 100th anniversary in 2047, a target date for Modi to turn the nation into a developed country.

“Mr. Modi is driven more by the idea of creating a space for himself in history,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, who wrote a biography of Modi and spoke with him extensively. “He wants to be remembered as one of the transformative leaders of India.”
India’s Instagrab: Modi’s re-election bid weaponizes social media influencers (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [5/15/2024 12:00 AM, Kanika Gupta and Adnan Bhat, 293K, Negative]
Veer Sharma and Parul Ahirwar play India’s favorite henpecked boyfriend and henpecking girlfriend in viral videos that often feature Ahirwal wielding a frying pan or broom and Sharma running in terror.

Friends in real life, the two 29-year-olds have vaulted to superstardom on social media platform Instagram with their slapstick videos mocking gender stereotypes, or just as frequently playing to them wholeheartedly. Whatever the formula is, it works: Sharma has 1.5 million followers, while Ahirwar has 2.4 million.

But lately, as India heads toward elections that look set to return Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third term next month, their Instagram feeds have begun to feature something else: politics.

Sharma’s most popular video, with more than 30 million views, features Sharma and Ahirwar palling around with Shivraj Chouhan, the former chief minister of Sharma’s home state of Madhya Pradesh, who hails from India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. In another video, Sharma can be seen enjoying a cricket match between India and Australia with Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia last year.

Veer is candid about how this happened, telling Nikkei Asia his viral videos caught the eye of a prominent BJP politician who enlisted him to produce content for a successful state election bid. That led to more offers and finally an invitation to the home of Chouhan, who was then the BJP’s chief minister, a post he held until December. "He said that they needed influencers like us to support the government’s schemes," Sharma told Nikkei.

"[Chouhan] went on to explain all the schemes to us and asked me to make some videos," said Sharma, adding that a package of five to six videos earned him 1.2 million rupees ($1,400).

But it wasn’t all about the profit motive, he said.

"My family has always supported BJP and I personally admire Modi ji a lot, so I agreed to campaign for them," he said, using a term of reverence for Modi.

Win-win

Sharma is one of a growing army of online bloggers, livestreamers and viral video creators who have found a niche in Indian politics as Modi and his BJP appear set for an electoral victory that will give the prime minister a third term and reinforce his party’s hegemony and its Hindu nationalist ideology.

Voting began last month and will run for six weeks until the results are announced on June 4. The election has focused attention on the outsized role played by internet influencers like Sharma. With over 800 million people online and the world’s largest Facebook and Instagram userbases, India’s political parties have strategically leveraged social media influencers to amplify their messaging and bolster their public images, particularly aimed at the over 200 million voters under the age of 30.

The BJP has left nothing to chance in a political campaign that has invited accusations of authoritarian tactics. Government agencies have frozen the bank accounts of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, according to the party. Meanwhile, the leaders of two opposition-run states have been jailed, though one was released this month on bail.

While most domestic news media and broadcasters support the BJP, the internet remains the last competitive space for politics to play out. There, the BJP is nonetheless trying to tilt the game in its favor by recruiting popular influencers to mobilize the all-important youth vote while simultaneously using any tools at its disposal to suppress pro-opposition views.

Opponents of the government have felt the chill of online censorship. In January, for example, Raqib Hameed Naik, the founder of Hindutva Watch, an online hate tracker, received a notice that its X account would be blocked following a legal demand from the government of India.

"They have come after me and the platform I run. They have blocked both websites, with the ministry sending me notices," said Naik, who spoke to Nikkei on the phone from the U.S. "‘Curbing’ is a very light word in terms of what the government has been doing from day one," he said. The press office of X could not be reached for comment, sending Nikkei an automated response that read: "Busy now, please check back later."

According to a report by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism published this month, some videos uploaded on global sites such as YouTube featuring content critical of the government have been blocked or prevented from earning revenue from advertisements this year.

"What we will see going forward is widespread censorship on social media, where people who are critical will get demonetized," said Pratik Sinha, co-founder and editor of Alt News, a non-profit fact-checking website.

In February, Mahesh Choudhary, the media coordinator for a movement of farmers protesting the government’s agricultural policies, said he had to play cat and mouse with censors who blocked the group’s internet platforms with legal orders. "Our main social media accounts were barred by the government," he told Nikkei. "So we had to create new accounts every day that got subsequently blocked. They were blocking our accounts faster than we could create them."

India’s Union Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar recently revealed that more than 36,800 URLs were blocked by the IT Ministry from 2018 to 2023 under a law that allows the government to issue such orders if the content is deemed a threat to the national security, integrity or sovereignty of India.

Popular BJP critic Dhruv Rathee, a 29-year-old YouTuber, often posts content critical of the government, including a viral video with 25 million views saying India is moving toward dictatorship. He has never been blocked but realizes the possibility exists.

"That risk is always there," Rathee told Nikkei, "but I try not to think about it and focus on the work that I am currently doing."

For pro-BJP influencers, however, the rewards are great. India’s top-performing influencers feature appearances with more BJP leaders than opposition leaders, according to a recent paper by Joyojeet Pal, an associate professor at the University of Michigan who researches political media.

Rohit Upadhyay, in charge of social media for the BJP in New Delhi, told Nikkei that the party has galvanized over 10,000 so-called social media "volunteers" for the coming parliamentary election in the city. "This includes our team, influencers that have been sharing our content in the past," he told Nikkei. "And the third and biggest are micro-influencers we have identified through our online initiatives. They usually have anywhere between 500 to 5,000 followers."

Upadhyay believes 500 followers on social media can translate to at least one vote. "It’s most likely that those 500 followers are people from the same area or people that they know. And if they make content on local issues, it resonates better with the audience," he explained.

Shudeep Majumdar, CEO of Delhi-based Zefmo, an influencer marketing agency, said that micro-influencers with a few thousand followers are highly sought after ahead of elections. Smaller influencers, he said, are willing to share politically explicit content, while big influencers hesitate to take a clear position on political issues. "Typically, we pay a micro-influencer with 4,000 to 10,000 followers, 10,000 rupees ($125) for sending out five to 10 tweets," he said. "Or three to four Instagram reels, or it could just be a long video on YouTube."

While influencers’ loyalty is often secured with monetary rewards, plenty are eager to join the fray for free, as it is a shortcut to more engagement and followers, researcher Pal said, explaining the nexus between a politician and an influencer. "At the end of the day," he said, "that is the only game that influencers are in this for, eyeballs."

For an influencer, even mild engagement with a political party can attract more views and engagement -- in India, a 50% to 70% increase in views across various platforms -- according to research conducted by Tech Global Institute, a nonprofit policy organization.

Sharma, the henpecked Instagrammer, for example, said that pivoting into politics won him fans and new business. "The first video I made with the [chief minister] got around 50-60 million views, after which I was recognized all over [Madhya Pradesh]. Everyone started respecting me, and I got much more work after that," he said, adding he has also been offered money by the opposition Congress party but turned it down.

Pal, the University of Michigan researcher, pointed out that influencers can serve another purpose for politicians, particularly in interviews when they shy away from asking tough questions, thereby reducing public accountability.

"So, after watching a politician’s interview with an influencer, viewers may think, ‘Wow, this person covered everything!’ because they seemingly answered all the questions. However, what they don’t realize is that only a subset of questions were posed to the politician. This could be due to the interview being pre-planned or because the interviewer lacked the ability to ask the right questions," Pal said.

Level playing field

Despite lopsided traffic favoring the BJP, online media is still a fairer platform than the mainstream media, according to the Congress party, who like their opponents, have based their media strategy around influencers and online news.

Ruchira Chaturvedi, the Congress party’s national convener for social media and digital communications, said the party now relies more on digital media, which helps it get around what he called biased and disproportionately low coverage in the national media.

"More and more people are turning to platforms like YouTube and Instagram for news and information," she said. "Our party operates on a volunteer model, where our leaders and volunteers serve as our influencers. Since it is largely [volunteer] driven, there is no monetary transaction involved."

When questioned about Sharma’s assertion that the Congress party offered to pay him to promote their policies, Chaturvedi said that such offers do not occur at the official level but "perhaps at the candidate level."

"Our party has limited resources," Chaturvedi said, referring to the partially frozen bank accounts due to an income tax dispute that the Congress party claims is politically motivated to hinder it in the ongoing elections. "As you can see, influencers have become a big industry, many provide content for free, while there are others who charge a fee. You can tell them what content to post and [influencers] will charge a fee for it. [The BJP] may do that, but we don’t."

A BJP source insisted that the party was "not really paying" social media influencers or agencies to promote government policies. "These people who are endorsing those schemes have millions of followers," the source said, "and it is not difficult for them to monetize their social media handles.

"Besides, there are people supporting the government who may be [monetarily] helping these influencers. We [in the government] don’t do that."

According to Sinha, the Alt News co-founder, the problem lies in the monetization of content creation.

"Social media influencers are there for what purpose? They are there to create content. Why are they creating content? To make money," Sinha said. "To make more money, they need more content. And the election is the biggest content right now. So, they will create content around elections."

Sinha added that the content creation process, which he calls perverse gamification, is also problematic because it aims to keep viewers hooked to their mobile screens.

"Social media is a game and everyone is playing that game," Sinha said. "So one cannot selectively say these influencers cannot do it and someone else can. ... It is not an issue of the people who are creating the content. For them, it is a livelihood."

Vague and opaque

Ahirwar and Sharma have also been commissioned to produce promotional videos for government projects, such as a government-funded temple with a .gov website. As part of a five-video package released on her Instagram feed for which she was compensated, Ahirwar discusses the temple’s construction and features. However, these posts lack clear labeling as promotional or advertising material.

Facebook and Instagram actively prohibit government entities, officials, political candidates and parties from running "partnership ads," which are a form of paid promotions. However, this restriction solely targets the accounts of political parties and candidates, leaving a gap that allows influencers to exploit partnership ads without such limitations.

When asked why she did not label the temple video package as paid promotional material, Ahirwar told Nikkei she is not always able to explicitly state when she has been paid to create content. Nevertheless, she insists that social media audiences are "educated" and can recognize the difference between paid and unpaid content.

"Sometimes, when we work with the government, yes, we might get paid. But honesty is everything to us," Ahirwar said. "So, if someone asks us, especially during live sessions where we talk to our followers, we’re honest. We’ll say if something was paid for. It’s important to us that our audience knows what’s going on."

Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari agrees that most social media users are aware of these dynamics.

"The viewers who are watching are also young," Tiwari said. "They are quite aware, even if the influencer is not saying that some of this is promotional. Most influencers today are labeled as either right-wing or left-wing. Ultimately, the consumers are well aware of this."

Prateek Waghre, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, explains that while these platforms ask for disclosures that show content is paid for by a third party, these policies rely on the goodwill of the influencers.

"While platforms have the authority to enforce policies, including disclosure requirements and guidelines on hate speech, they sometimes fall short in addressing these issues effectively," he said.

To uphold transparency and accountability in political messaging on digital platforms, the Election Commission of India says it is closely monitoring social media influencers and individuals engaging in indirect promotion of political parties and candidates.

However, when asked about regulating the digital space for greater transparency, experts seemed skeptical. Waghre highlighted the challenge of crafting laws targeting misinformation without potentially infringing on freedom of speech or being selectively enforced by those in power against opposition figures.

Sinha brought up an example of a recent video which criticized India’s electronic voting system. After publication, the creators were demonetized (blocked from earning ad revenue) by a global social media platform. "You cannot be critical," Sinha said. "You cannot say that this is not a transparent process. So, then you are financially disincentivizing anybody who is creating critical content. This is the first step. The next step will be complete censorship."
India, gangs … or both? Who is behind assassinations of Canadian Sikhs? (The Guardian)
The Guardian [5/14/2024 7:30 AM, Leyland Cecco, Ahmar Khan, and Hannah Ellis-Petersen, 12.5M, Neutral]
Less than half an hour after the prominent Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar was shot dead outside a temple in British Columbia, Moninder Singh addressed a crowd near the site of the brazen attack.

“Make no mistake: this is a political assassination,” Singh told the agitated crowd in June 2023. “And it’s been carried out by India.”

Reaction from Delhi, more than 11,000 kilometres away, was starkly different. The government had long considered Nijjar a “terrorist” and Indian media wrote off the killing as a “fratricidal gang-world slaughter”.

In the months since, the two narratives – of an India-ordered assassination and an underworld hit – appeared at odds.

But the recent arrest of three men for their alleged involvement in the killing of Nijjar has suggested that there is an element of truth to both of those claims. A fourth man, already in custody in the province of Ontario on firearms offences, was charged on Sunday.

The men are allegedly linked to a sprawling criminal network with operations in Canada. And with more arrests expected, investigators and government officials remain confident that India’s government used a tactic they claim it has often employed closer to home: using contract killers from a local gang to carry out a political assassination.

Charges against Karanpreet Singh, Kamalpreet Singh, Karan Brar and Amandeep Singh have done little to calm a lingering sense of fear within the Sikh community.

On a recent afternoon, devotees streaming into the Dixie Gurdwara in Mississauga, Ontario, were reluctant to speak on the record about Nijjar’s killing, but many said the issue loomed large over the community.

“Everyone, bro – everyone is talking about it, but we don’t want to say too much because of what the government can do,” said Jasdeep Singh, an international student from Punjab.

Nijjar was a vocal proponent of Khalistan, a potential independent Sikh state in India, and before his killing the activist had organised a series of symbolic referendums. The Khalistan movement is banned in India and India’s high commissioner to Canada, Sanjay Kumar Verma, recently accused pro-Khalistan activists in Canada of crossing “a big red line” that New Delhi sees as a matter of national security.

“Indians will decide the fate of India, not the foreigners,” he said.

For many Sikhs in Canada, Nijjar’s murder exposed the reach and ambition of India’s nationalist government, and its willingness to pursue and kill “terrorists” outside the country’s borders.

“It shows you the length to which this government is willing to go to shut down any level of dissent. They are even willing to work with enemies, people on the outs, have them go through the legal system – to attack us. It shows us that we’re doing something right,” said Mo Dhaliwal, a Sikh activist and the co-founder of the Poetic Justice Foundation.

Indian intelligence has previously been accused of recruiting criminal gangs to carry out extrajudicial killings in Pakistan. Since 2020, Pakistan intelligence has accused India of carrying out up to 20 targeted murders of terrorists and dissidents hiding out in the country, with Pakistan intelligence reports alleging that Indian agencies often recruited criminal gangs and local gangsters to carry out these murders.

Canadian investigators believe the three men charged with Nijjar’s murder are low-level operatives of the Lawrence Bishnoi gang, a notorious group implicated in global extortion schemes. Bishnoi was jailed in 2014, but has reportedly been able to continue to conduct and expand his criminal empire from behind bars.

Bishnoi is believed to exert control over hundreds of members across north India in recent years and, with operations in North America, exert influence through the sizable Punjabi diaspora.

The gang has been implicated in several high-profile crimes, including the 2022 killing of the popular Canadian Punjabi singer Sidhu Moose Wala.

Investigations by Indian police into the Bishnoi gang’s operations found members were often recruited through social media, where gang leaders post images of weapons and piles of cash, glorifying the gangster life. Punjab police also found that young men were often being recruited by being promised a “new life” in Canada.

Street gangs and organised crime syndicates with links to south Asian communities have long had a presence in British Columbia and Ontario and the Indian government’s decision to use those existing networks is a “marriage of convenience”, said Queen’s University assistant professor Amarnath Amarasingam, who specialises in extremism and social movements.

“India will pay whoever will do the shooting and gangs like the Bishnoi gang will essentially kill whoever pays them to kill,” he said.

Canadian investigators are also probing whether the three men were involved in three other homicides – including the shooting of an 11-year-old boy in the city of Edmonton, where the men were arrested.

Using a gang based in the Punjab, whose members arrived on student visas, would be intended to create the perception of domestic score-settling and administrative oversight, instead of a government-ordered assassination, said Amarasingam.

While it remains unclear whether the Bishnoi gang itself outsourced the killing of Nijjar – or how high the orders came from within the Indian government – the strategy has proven successful outside India’s direct borders.

“At this point, for broader political and economic reasons, there doesn’t seem to be any consequences for the people who kind of call the shots at all,” said Amarasingam.

Nearly a year after Nijjar’s death, mounting pressure within Canada to mend relations and restore trade talks with India has angered activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.

US prosecutors say that Pannun, the chief legal counsel for Sikhs for Justice, was the target of a foiled assassination attempt overseen by an unnamed Indian government agent who directed a middleman to recruit a hitman in the US, where Pannun lives. Pannun argues that Canada must do more to confront an increasingly aggressive India.

“The use of gangs as foot soldiers has India’s fingerprints all over it,” he said. “But arresting lower-level players and removing intelligence agents isn’t enough to end the transnational campaign of violence. Indian diplomats must also be held accountable, otherwise [Indian prime minister Narendra] Modi’s government will feel they can come to Canada, kill a Canadian and get away with it.”

After the arrests of the three men in Canada, India’s foreign minister reiterated his government’s belief that Ottawa is allowing criminals to operate in Canada.

“Somebody may have been arrested; the police may have done some investigation. But the fact is [a] number of gangland people, [a] number of people with organised crime links from Punjab, have been made welcome in Canada,” said the foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, adding that Canada had also given shelter to pro-Khalistan activists. “These are wanted criminals from India; you have given them visas … and yet you allow them to live there.”

For Moninder Singh, the use of existing criminal networks to attack the Khalistan movement is a “new reality” for activists.

“When I look at these three individuals, I only see India,” he said. “They’re just faces: three were hired today and another three could be hired tomorrow.”

A year before his friend was murdered, Singh – a spokesperson for the British Columbia Gurdwaras Council – was also warned about a possible attempt on his life. He was recently warned again by police of a “very real” risk of assassination, but remains undeterred.

He avoids public places when possible. He has stopped grocery shopping. And he cannot attend key moments of his children’s lives.

“You make up excuses – ‘Dad’s gonna go to work’ or ‘Dad’s gonna go for his community meeting right now and can’t come to your recital.’ And then after a while, your kids stop asking, because they know you won’t be there. That’s the hardest and the saddest part of this whole thing,” he said.

“I made the choice to speak out for Khalistan and I don’t want sympathy. It’s an unfortunate thing to have to accept living in a country like Canada, where this stuff shouldn’t happen. But I’ve chosen this path and I’m committed to it. I’ll either see Khalistan or I’ll die trying.”
NSB
Fallout between the Maldives and India is ‘absolutely’ benefiting Sri Lanka, says tourism minister (CNBC)
CNBC [5/14/2024 7:00 PM, Monica Pitrelli, 6847K, Neutral]
Calls for Indian travelers to boycott the Maldives is “absolutely” helping Sri Lanka’s travel industry, the country’s Tourism Minister Harin Fernando said Thursday.

“The Maldives issue is … helping us,” Fernando told CNBC, referencing a social media row in January that resulted in a sharp drop in Indian visitors to the Maldives this year.

India was the Maldives’ largest source market in 2023. But now it sits in 6th place, behind arrivals from China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Italy and Germany, according to Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Tourism.

By contrast, nearly 34,400 Indian travelers went to Sri Lanka in January, more than double the 13,759 that visited in January last year, according to the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. Arrivals in the first quarter of 2024 outpaced the same time period in 2023, despite a dip in April caused by a visa controversy that saw Sri Lankan visa temporarily double in price.

Fernando also noted the tight relationship between Sri Lanka and India, both in business and tourism.

“Sri Lanka is a big market for [Indian travelers],” he said. “Sri Lanka has more to offer … Sri Lanka has more value when it comes to India.”

He referenced the country’s beaches, casinos, shopping and the Ramayana Trail, a series of sites that are referenced in the Ramayana, an ancient Hindu epic.

Plus, the two countries are highly connected, he said.

“Connectivity — that is the trigger factor,” he said. “Sri Lankan Airlines alone flies 80 times a week into Indian airports.”

India’s growing travel power

Indian travelers are set to become the world’s fourth-largest travel spenders by 2030, a prediction which “absolutely” bodes well for Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, said Fernando.

“I think the fastest-growing economy is India, and Sri Lanka is definitely benefiting out of it,” said Fernando, adding that Indian companies have made substantial investments on the island.

“ITC, the big hotel chain, opened their first hotel out of India in Sri Lanka. We just opened it about a few weeks back, and it’s a beautiful property … in Galle Face,” he said, referencing the ocean-side area in the country’s capital city of Colombo. “It’s one of the best things that I’ve seen in my life.”
A Maldives concept in Sri Lanka

Fernando said he hopes to see more investments from global brands coming to Sri Lanka — investments that eluded the “Teardrop Island” as it waged a 25-year civil war, which ended in 2009.

“We’ve invited a lot of investment from abroad,” he said. “We’re doing some water bungalows in our new area — like a Maldives concept as well — because we are surrounded by the beach.”

Fernando also outlined plans to add adventure activities to appeal to younger travelers, from hot air balloons to skydiving and diving to explore more than 100 nearby shipwrecks dating to World War II, he said.

With concert economics causing a tourism boom, Sri Lanka plans to bring in musical acts to attract tourists too, said Fernando.

“We are launching Sri Lanka as an entertainment hub,” he said. “We have a lot of big names coming in to perform.”
15 Years Since Sri Lanka’s Conflict Ended, No Justice for War Crimes (Human Rights Watch)
Human Rights Watch [5/14/2024 12:43 PM, Meenakshi Ganguly, 190K, Negative]
Lakshmi remembers when the guns finally fell silent in Sri Lanka, in May 2009.

She had been sheltering in a shallow hole in the sand – what passed for a “bunker” for the hundreds of thousands of Tamil civilians huddled on the beach. For weeks they had endured continual bombardment in an area the military had declared a “no fire zone”.

“Many people were struggling for their lives,” she told us in a recent meeting. “We were in a bunker and the army came with weapons and took us outside. We saw blood flowing and body parts. We will never forget.”

The 26-year war between the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Sri Lankan government finally ended on May 18, 2009. Hundreds of LTTE fighters, including top leaders, were allegedly killed after surrendering, among the many war crimes that both sides committed in the final phase of the conflict.

Photographs and mobile phone videos, seemingly made as keepsakes by government soldiers, show summary executions of prisoners whose hands are tied behind their back. Heaps of corpses of women fighters were photographed naked; apparently murdered after being raped.

Lakshmi, who is still too scared to let us use her real name, was taken to an internment camp, where about 250,000 civilians were separated from suspected combatants. She has since spent years searching for her then 21-year-old son, who surrendered to the Sri Lankan army and was never seen again.

There has been no accountability for atrocities by government forces, including torture, rape, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and indiscriminate attacks. The LTTE leadership mostly either died in battle or were executed, and so can never face justice for their summary killings, bombings of civilians, abductions, and the use of child soldiers.

Over 100,000 people died in the decades of conflict. A study by a United Nations panel of experts found that up to 40,000 civilians were killed in the final months of fighting. It found that in that period, “virtually every hospital in the Vanni [region], whether permanent or makeshift, was hit by artillery.”

The government used deliberately low estimates of civilians in the conflict zone to restrict humanitarian supplies. In a well-documented instance on April 8, 2009, women and children in line to get milk powder were killed by shelling. The LTTE used civilians under their control as human shields, shooting at families who tried to escape, and restricted aid deliveries.

The unaddressed legacy of the war has bequeathed to Sri Lanka practices of abuse, impunity and misgovernance that still blight the country, and directly contribute to the economic crisis that afflicts it now.

Successive governments have appointed a series of commissions ostensibly to investigate reported abuses, while in practice blocking investigations and shielding the abusers. The fate of the thousands of “disappeared” has never been revealed, while the mothers of the disappeared – who, like Laksmi, have campaigned continuously to learn the truth – face surveillance, harassment and arrest from the authorities.

Meanwhile senior figures implicated in atrocities have been promoted. The current defense secretary, retired General Kamal Gunaratne, was one of the top commanders during the final offensive. He is barred from travelling to the United States due to allegations of serious abuses.

In Sri Lanka’s predominantly Tamil north and east, where most of the fighting took place, the highways are still dotted with army camps and checkpoints. The authorities violently suppress protests, and arrest people under draconian anti-terrorist legislation for social media posts or for commemorating Tamil victims of the war.

Government agencies seize land belonging to Tamil and Muslim communities on a variety of pretexts, and then settle communities from the Sinhala Buddhist majority, and build Buddhist monuments on the sites of Hindu temples.

When the Sri Lankan government defaulted on its foreign debt in 2022, setting off a severe economic crisis, it revealed how far institutions of government were dominated by those implicated in war crimes. The president at the time, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, had been defense secretary during the war, while the prime minister, his brother Mahinda, had been president. The silencing of human rights defenders over corruption and misgovernance.

One of the few avenues available to address this dreadful legacy is the UN Human Rights Council, which has created a UN office to collect evidence of atrocities committed in Sri Lanka for use in future trials abroad. Governments around the world should engage with the office to prosecute cases at home for war crimes committed in Sri Lanka. And they need to support renewal of this critical office in September.
Central Asia
After Ex-Minister Found Guilty Of Murdering His Wife, Is Kazakhstan Having A #MeToo Moment? (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [5/14/2024 12:19 PM, Chris Rickleton, 223K, Negative]
Earlier this month, while millions in Kazakhstan and beyond were still processing the horrors of a spousal murder trial that drew parallels with the O.J. Simpson trial in the United States, a young woman announced that she had been beaten by her husband -- a serving Kazakh diplomat.

Like Saltanat Nukenova, the deceased partner of ex-Economy Minister Quandyq Bishimbaev, Karina Mamash’s face was covered in egg-shaped bruises.

Unlike Nukenova, she lived to accuse her alleged aggressor in an video posted on Instagram by the NeMolchiKZ group, an organization that assists women and children subjected to physical and sexual violence.

"I am the wife of the adviser to [the Kazakh] Embassy in the U.A.E., Saken Mamash," Mamash said in the video. "I declare that I have been subjected to violence for 10 years. I want my husband to be deprived of his diplomatic status and put in prison for all the abuses that he committed against me."

The Bishimbaev trial, which saw the main defendant found guilty of murder and handed a 24-year jail sentence by a court in the capital, Astana, on May 13, has shattered the myth that domestic violence in Kazakhstan is a mostly socioeconomic phenomenon.

The trial also provided momentum for the passage of a historic law that should, in theory, afford greater protections to all survivors of domestic abuse.

That in turn raises the questions of whether members of Kazakhstan’s political and economic elite may face further accusations of violence from women, including allegations of past misconduct, and how a system that has in the past downplayed the problem might address that challenge.

"I think there will certainly be more public accusations of this type," Dina Smailova, the founder of NeMolchiKZ, said in an interview with RFE/RL.

But the self-exiled Smailova, who is under criminal investigation in Kazakhstan for fraud and other charges that she attributes to the impact of her organization’s work, points out that Bishimbaev did not serve in Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev’s government.

Moreover, she says, Nukenova’s death resonated strongly with the public and abroad, conditioning the government’s response. Past practice "shows that the system will punish with one hand and shield with another," Smailova added.

‘Image Of The Country’

Karina Mamash’s May 6 video accusation came on the back of what she described as a violent assault on her husband’s part, allegedly directed against her and her older sister, who was visiting the family at their home in the U.A.E.

The same day, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry said that Mamash had been recalled from his diplomatic posting and was to be fired from his job. The ministry also reunited Mamash with her children and arranged her flight home.

The case is currently under police investigation.

On May 12, the politics-focused YouTube channel Nukte published an interview with the diplomat’s wife, in which she described how she had felt under pressure not to file complaints against her husband, due to the effects they may have "on the image of the country."

"When we were waiting for the consul [in the U.A.E.], I felt very bad," said Mamash, whose face was still swollen with bruises when she gave the interview.

"[Foreign Ministry staff] did not want to take me to the hospital.... If something had happened to me, the incident could have been dismissed as an ‘unfortunate accident.’ It would all have been hushed up," Mamash said.

"Saltanat [Nukenova]? I understand that the same thing could have happened to me."

At a briefing on May 13, Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said the ministry was "together with" Mamash and was now conducting checks among its personnel. Smadiyarov said the Kazakh consul’s response to the situation had been adequate.

When it comes to Kazakhstan’s image, the Bishimbaev trial has proven a mixed bag.

On the one hand, there has been widespread shock at the footage of a former political high flier savagely beating Nukenova inside a food mall that his family owned. Instead of immediately calling an ambulance, the partner of the former economy minister was left to die.

On the other, Kazakhstan’s Supreme Court gained credit for live streaming the trial, a decision that ensured massive domestic viewership, as well as strong interest from Russia and other countries where Russian -- the language of the trial -- is spoken.

The Kazakh authorities have also received praise for re-criminalizing two offenses that the authorities had decriminalized back in 2017: battery and intentional infliction of light bodily harm, both of which are closely associated with domestic violence.

The new domestic-violence law signed by President Toqaev last month eliminated "reconciliation" between parties as a reason for police to drop cases of repeated spousal violence.

According to the Interior Ministry, police processed nearly 100,000 complaints related to family violence in 2023, while courts handed administrative sanctions to 67,270 people.

But advocacy groups -- including Smailova’s NeMolchiKZ and the global rights groups Equality Now and Human Rights Watch -- have highlighted how there is still much work to do.

They have argued that the new law still leaves women with few protections against stalking, bullying, economic harassment, and psychological violence -- actions that often precede and accompany physical violence.

‘You’re Extorting Me!’

There was widespread public appetite for Bishimbaev’s heavy punishment, and not just because of the evidence that the former official subjected Nukenova to hours of brutality and likely beat her multiple times before that.

For many, he was a symbol of elite impunity, continuing life as a wealthy businessman after his release from jail in late 2019, having been convicted of embezzlement and bribery at the beginning of the previous year.

Before that fall from grace -- and relative slap on the wrist -- he was serving as the country’s fresh-faced national economy minister, apparently a favorite of then-President Nursultan Nazarbaev, who granted him a pardon just over a year into his sentence.

There have been a number of cases in the last few years demonstrating that acts of violence and intimidation against women are very much a problem in Kazakh officialdom.

Just last month, a former chief of police in the southern town of Taldyqorghan, Marat Kushtybaev, was sentenced to 11 years in prison for raping a woman in his office.

Then there was the more convoluted case of the well-known economist Olzhas Khudaibergenov, who served as an adviser to Toqaev in 2019, his first year in office.

In November 2023, days after Nukenova’s violent death, Khudaibergenov’s wife, Moldir Kabylova, went public with claims that the economist had engaged in coercive and controlling behavior during and after their marriage.

After they separated, Kabylova said that Khudaibergenov made her sign agreements allowing him to monitor the movements of her and her four children in London, where she was studying.

In a press conference, Kabylova revealed that she had filed charges against Khudaibergenov in the United Kingdom for attempting to abduct their children in March 2022.

But in April of this year, a court sentenced Kabylova’s father to seven years in jail for extortion, honoring Khudaibergenov’s claim that his father-in-law had demanded money from him in exchange for Kabylova dropping those charges.

Khudaibergenov has publicly denied Kabylova’s accusations, while portraying both her father and her brother as fraudsters.

Smailova, the advocate for victims of domestic violence, told RFE/RL that there is a risk that other powerful men with access to resources will be able to use similar tactics to turn the tables on their accusers.

"We studied the materials of this case closely. The authorities freed his hands and allowed him to persecute his wife and her family," she said.

Critics have argued, meanwhile, that the authorities’ targeting of Smailova, is a question mark over the government’s avowed commitment to preventing violence against women.

In December 2023, police said that Smailova was the subject of six criminal cases that encompassed crimes including disseminating false information, violation of privacy, and large-scale fraud. A number of ordinary citizens who had donated to the organization reported being called in for police questioning.

"We have worked to defend women and children for the last eight years," Smailova told RFE/RL. "During that time we regularly cooperated with state bodies. But after I was charged, none of those bodies, not even the human rights ombudsman, spoke up in my defense. This system knows well how to protect itself."
Kazakh court jails former minister for 24 years for brutal murder of wife (The Guardian)
The Guardian [5/14/2024 7:40 AM, Aigerim Turgunbaeva, 12499K, Negative]
A former Kazakh government minister has been sentenced to 24 years in prison for the torture and murder of his wife in one of the most high-profile cases of domestic violence in Kazakhstan’s history.

Kuandyk Bishimbayev, 44, was shown in surveillance footage repeatedly beating Saltanat Nukenova, 31, after they quarrelled in a restaurant he owned in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, in November 2023. A forensic examination later found evidence of strangulation.

The murder and horrifying details of the case prompted a national outcry, with millions watching live broadcasts from the trial on YouTube before this week’s guilty verdict. The case shone a spotlight on the high levels of femicide in Kazakhstan, where the UN estimates about 400 women die from domestic violence every year.

Bishimbayev admitted beating his wife, but denied the charge of murder. Aitbek Amangeldy, Nukenova’s brother, said that when the family went to pick up her possessions, one of Bishimbayev’s sisters had said: “You will not prove his guilt. You will not succeed.”

Bishimbayev was a former economy minister, known to be close to former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan for three decades until stepping aside in early 2022. In 2018, Bishimbayev was sentenced to 10 years in jail for corruption, but was released a year later and pardoned by Nazarbayev.

Bishimbayev was detained after the murder, but some media outlets launched an information war against Nukenova. Reports circulated on Telegram channels that she was on medication and mentally unstable, claims rubbished by her family.

“Justice in Kazakhstan is like this – instead of experiencing your grief with your family, you run all over the country to prove that my sister was killed, that she is a victim,” said Amangeldy, in an interview in the family’s home town of Pavlodar before the start of the trial.

Amangeldy said his parents had not been happy about Nukenova’s decision to marry a man who had been married twice before and had a conviction for fraud, but they accepted her choice. Nukenova and Bishimbayev married in December 2022.

From the start, Bishimbayev was violent towards Nukenova, said Amangeldy, and in early 2023, she sent her brother photographs of bruises, apparently caused by Bishimbayev, and asked him to save them, as she was scared of keeping them on her phone.

After Nukenova’s murder, an online petition calling on the Kazakh authorities to toughen penalties for domestic violence against women and children gained more than 150,000 signatures in a few weeks. Before and during the trial, many people expressed scepticism that justice would be done, citing the country’s issues with corruption.

Kristina, a 21-year-old student in Pavlodar, said: “I want to believe in justice. But I know that he was tried and released. In our country, the law is for the rich and powerful. It all depends on us, the society. I signed the petition, as did all my friends.”

Nukenova’s relatives are sure that without the public outcry, they would not have been able to achieve justice.

“The case has acquired a political context because of the [prominence] of the suspect. He is one of the key politicians of the country and a protege of the former president,” said Zhanna Urazbakhova, the lawyer representing Nukenova’s family.

“In 24 years he will be 68. This is practically a life sentence,” said Amangeldy after the announcement of the final verdict.

In April, president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev agreed to toughen penalties in cases of violence against women and children. Domestic violence had been decriminalised in 2017. Saltanat’s Law, as it has come to be called, will come into force on 15 June.

Campaigners welcome the changes, but also believe they are too little and too late. “A woman’s life in Kazakhstan is not as valuable as a man’s life,” said activist Aigerim Kusayin Kyzy at a recent press conference. “Why did Saltanat Nukenova have to die for the public to pay attention to femicide?"
Viral Bishimbayev Trial in Kazakhstan Ends With 24-Year Sentence (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/14/2024 8:21 AM, Colleen Wood, 201K, Neutral]
On May 13, former Minister of Economy of Kazakhstan Kuandyk Bishimbayev received 24 years in prison for murder (specifically, “murder committed with extreme cruelty”) and torture. Bishimbayev killed his wife, Saltanat Nukenova, in the bathroom of a restaurant in Astana in November 2023, but a history of beatings and abuse long preceded that tragic night.

Bishimbayev’s trial, which began on March 27, was the first to be live-streamed in Kazakhstan. With millions of people watching, the spectacle of his trial drew much-needed attention to Kazakhstan’s endemic problem of domestic violence.

Mia Tarp Nurmagambetova has already written for The Diplomat about how Bishimbayev’s trial put domestic violence on the agenda for Kazakhstani lawmakers. Activists have been pushing for stricter punishment for gender-based violence for years, and they got a hard-earned win in April: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a new law criminalizing domestic violence.

Stronger protections against spousal abuse were not the only significant reform that coincided with Bishimbayev’s trial, though.

On March 12, one day after Judge Aizhan Kulbaeva agreed to Bishimbayev’s request for a jury trial, Kazakhstan’s lower chamber of parliament, the Majilis, approved the first reading of a bill to revamp the country’s approach to juries.

Juries have been a fixture of Kazakhstan’s legal system since 2007, when the country adopted hybrid juries. Unlike the “classic” model of jury trials, where the jury deliberates without a judge present and votes independently on whether to convict, under the hybrid model, jurors and the judge make the decision together.

Variations of the hybrid model are used in democratic countries across Europe, but the power dynamic inherent in Kazakhstani jury deliberations has been a point of contention for watchdog organizations. Lawyer Aigerim Kusainkyzy posed a rhetorical question to Vlast in an explainer on jury trials, “What are the chances that a fair and honest decision will be made behind the closed door of the deliberation room?”

The U.S. State Department’s 2022 report on human rights in Kazakhstan noted that “prosecutors dominated trials, and defense attorneys played a minor role.” But if anything, the opposite was true for Bishimbayev’s trial. Local media coverage of the trial noted the defense team’s chutzpah in the early days of the trial. Vlast noted that “there was a feeling that the process was controlled not by judge Aizhan Kulbaeva, but by Bishimbayev’s lawyers.” On April 11 Bishimbayev’s legal team tried to file a complaint against the judge – which she summarily rejected.

Kulbaeva was criticized for barring the media from the courtroom on April 10. The decision was interpreted as an effort to silence the free press, but Kulbaeva made the call in an effort to maintain the anonymity of the jurors.

There’s no how-to guide for running a trial that’s gone viral, and the judge’s management of the courtroom was evidence of the government’s struggle to balance transparency with control. In the end, Kulbaeva rolled back the restrictions on press in the courtroom on April 22, even after threats to her personal safety.

That this decisionmaking happened under the watch of millions demonstrates the potential for the Bishimbayev trial to expand legal literacy in Kazakhstan. As jury trials become more commonplace in Kazakhstan, officials hope that the public will grow to have more confidence in the justice system. It takes a lot of energy and resources to educate a country on legal reforms, though, and the intensity of media coverage of this case catalyzed a sort of extra-governmental campaign to inform average people on how juries and courts operate.

Media outlets and social media channels published explainers on the history of jury trials in Kazakhstan. Articles and YouTube interviews describe all the steps of the process and explain the significance of different features of institutional design, like the hybrid model or the voting rules for a lifetime sentence. An interview with lawyer Dzhokhar Utebekov by a Forbes Kazakhstan journalist posted on April 16 has racked up 908,000 views in less than a month. A 17-minute video posted by Giperborei on May 13 that outlines the results of the trial had 541,000 views in less than 24 hours.

This type of legal literacy is crucial in a country like Kazakhstan, where talk of reform, democratization, and transparency dominate politicians’ rhetoric. And that rhetoric has translated into results. The World Justice Project ranked Kazakhstan 65th globally in 2023. Since 2016, the organization found that measures of rule of law had fallen in 78 percent of countries studied, but Kazakhstan is one of the few where rule of law has actually improved.

One of the key fixtures of rule of law is that every person, regardless of wealth or privilege, should face accountability before the law.

In Bishimbayev’s case, there was initially some concern that his privileged position would get him off easy. Given that Bishimbayev – whose father was a deputy of the Majilis and who was made a minister in the government at age 36 – was pardoned and released on parole in 2019 while serving time for accepting bribes, this was not an unsubstantiated fear.

But on the flip side, in a country where people in power have historically been able to skirt legal consequences for their actions, there’s also a temptation to use a trial like this to teach the privileged class a lesson. In a spirited speech in the last days of the trial, lawyer Igor Vranchev declared, “By unanimously recognizing Bishimbayev guilty and not giving him a chance to be released at all, you will free our entire Kazakhstan, our entire people from such elitist parasites.”

While there was a small protest in Almaty decrying that Bishimbayev should have received a life sentence, 24 years is hardly getting off easy. Of course, there’s time for Bishimbayev’s legal team to file an appeal, and it’s possible he will get out on parole before the 24 years he’s been sentenced to are up.

For now, though, it appears that judge Kulbaeva and the jury have struck a balance between competing incentives.
Kazakhstan opens thorny debate on 2025 OPEC+ oil quotas (Reuters)
Reuters [5/14/2024 11:17 AM, Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Maha El Dahan, 5.2M, Neutral]
Kazakhstan opened on Tuesday a thorny debate on OPEC+ production levels, saying it believed it should be allowed to pump more oil in 2025, when all current output cuts by the producer group are due to expire.

Kazakhstan’s comments reported by Interfax come as OPEC+ prepares to meet on June 1. The group has also ordered a review of members’ oil output capacity to set reference production levels for next year. The review is due by the end of June.

The subject of reference production numbers and quotas has often caused tension at OPEC+, affecting its unity and weighing on oil prices. The last showdown happened in November 2023 when OPEC+ delayed a meeting by several days due to heated discussions and member Angola left the group.

OPEC+ has tasked three companies - IHS, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy - to assess the capacities of all members to be used for reference production - the figures from which output cuts or increases are calculated - from 2025. The reviews are due to take place by end-June.

As a result, the issue will not come up at the June 1 meeting, five OPEC+ sources said, allowing the group to decide policy for the rest of 2024 with more ease. But it also means the June meeting will not give the market much guidance on policies for 2025, when all current cuts expire.

"The figures on production capacities will not be presented at the June meeting," said one of the OPEC+ sources, who declined be identified. "The reason is that some countries have not fully concluded their discussions with secondary sources".

OPEC and Woodmac did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Rystad and IHS declined to comment.

Following the Interfax report, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it had not requested a higher oil production level for 2025.

The need for new quotas comes as members, such as the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, expand their production capacity while the biggest OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, has this year scaled back additions to its output potential.

Top OPEC+ member Russia has effectively seen its production capacity reduced by the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.

Oil is the main source of income for most OPEC+ members but their budget needs differ wildly making them either supporters of higher oil prices amid lower production or higher production amid lower prices, which complicates discussions.

The UAE has long lobbied to raise its output within the OPEC+ agreement and this month it announced another hike in its oil capacity to 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd) - almost 2 million bpd higher than its current production target.

The UAE should gain up to 180,000 bpd of more capacity through 2027, while Kazakhstan is in the middle of deploying 80,000 bpd of new capacity, JP Morgan estimates. Iraq can add another 50,000-75,000 bpd.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia scrapped plans earlier this year to boost its capacity to 13 million from 12 million bpd. Its oil monopoly Saudi Aramco (2223.SE) has also been paying a special dividend to the government amid rising budget needs.

BUDGET NEEDS

OPEC+ has made a series of output cuts totalling 5.86 million bpd since 2022 amid rising output from the United States, an uncertain demand outlook as major economies tackle high interest rates and support the use of cleaner fuels.

At its June meeting, OPEC+ faces the more immediate issue of deciding whether to extend 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts beyond their expiry in June. The rest of the cuts amounting to 3.66 million bpd are valid until the end of 2024.

Some OPEC+ sources and analysts expect the voluntary cuts to be extended.

"OPEC’s keeping production targets unchanged does not address 2025 imbalances, especially as some of the OPEC members will see their production capacities increasing next year," JP Morgan said.

The International Monetary Fund estimates Saudi Arabia needs oil at $96.20 this year to balance its budget, falling to $84.70 in 2025. Iraq’s budget needs $90 oil next year and Algeria and Kazakhstan prices well above $100.

By contrast, the UAE’s budget needs lower prices of $56.70 in 2024 and slightly lower in 2025.

"Spending is rising faster than non-oil income, which by definition means the Kingdom’s reliance on oil receipts is on the rise," said Simon Williams of HSBC, referring to Saudi Arabia.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan press ahead with ambitious electricity export plan (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [5/14/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Economic integration efforts among CentralAsian-Caspian Basin states are gaining momentum. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are developing a green energy plan to link their power grids with an eye towards exporting electricity to the European Union.

The energy ministers of the three countries announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding in early May to explore their joint electricity export potential by harnessing mainly wind and solar power. Kazakhstan is also aiming to boost its hydropower generating capacity. In outlining cooperation plans, the tripartite memo envisions the laying of a “high-voltage cable” on the Caspian Sea’s seabed. Technical specifications for such a transmission line have already been developed, according to Kazakh Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev.

“A proposed business model will be developed for the development of international transmission corridors (financing, revenue flow and ownership) and for the sale of green energy to the countries of the European Union,” a ministry statement quoted Satkaliyev as saying.

The three countries have wasted little time in pursuing the plan. Satkaliiev said May 10 that a feasibility study was underway. He told journalists that the EU had given the budding consortium an expression of “interest in purchasing clean electricity.” The feasibility study will work out construction and financing details and is expected to produce preliminary estimates by the end of the year. It is too early to put a price tag on the project, or the amount of power exports involved.

“We are talking about a fairly large amount of investment,” Satkaliyev said.

The effort to foster trans-Caspian connectivity inherent in the tripartite memorandum dovetails with an economic blueprint proposed by the United States, dubbed the B5+1, under which Central Asian states take the initiative in breaking down regional trade barriers and forging new networks to boost trade and investment. Since the B5+1’s inception in March, Central Asian states have taken steps to simplify trade rules. The tripartite memo marks a significant step in promoting regional cooperation extending beyond Central Asia to span the Caspian Sea.

The goal of exporting electricity to the EU fits in with plans unveiled by all three countries to significantly expand renewable energy generating capacity in the coming years.

The chief catalyst for power exports is Uzbekistan, which aims to generate an additional 20 Gigawatts (GW) via renewable sources by 2030. Meeting that target would raise the country’s total renewable capacity to 27 GW. By April, the government had signed deals to develop wind and solar facilities projected to produce 12 GWs. In May, Uzbekistan entered into contracts for another 6 GW.

“Increasing the efficiency of the energy industry is relevant for our entire region,” Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said during a Tashkent investor’s forum in early May.

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan seem destined to play more of a facilitating role in the power export arrangement. Given its abundance of fossil fuels, Astana’s renewable goals seem more modest than Uzbekistan’s. Kazakhstan currently generates about 2.9 GW of power via renewable sources, and hopes to add at least another 5 GW by 2030, according to Satkaliyev. Much of that capacity may be needed at home, however, as Kazakhstan grapples with a power deficit that saw the country become a net importer of electricity in 2023.

Azerbaijan has a target of generating 5 GW of solar and wind power by 2030. The MoU Baku entered into with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan potentially builds on a 2023 agreement that Azerbaijan concluded with EU states, including Hungary and Romania, to export power via an underwater cable traversing the Black Sea with a capacity of 1,000 Megawatts. The feasibility study for the Black Sea project was conducted prior to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022, thus raising questions about its viability under wartime conditions.
Kyrgyz Government Critic Handed Five-Year Prison Term (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [5/14/2024 11:35 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
A Kyrgyz court on May 14 sentenced government critic and journalist Oljobai Shakir (aka Egemberdiev) to five years in prison on a charge of making calls online for mass unrest. Shakir was arrested in August 2023, days after he criticized the government’s decision to hand four spa centers near Lake Issyk-Kul to Uzbekistan and called President Sadyr Japarov and the State Committee of National Security chief Kamchybek Tashiev to participate in public debates with him.
Privatization in Uzbekistan: Potential Far From Fulfilled (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/15/2024 3:30 AM, Bryn Windsor, 201K, Neutral]
In early May, Uzbekistan’s capital played host to the Tashkent International Investment Forum. The third installment of the annual event, which cost an estimated $1.2 billion to organize in 2022, was a chance for Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to once again present the country’s credentials as a vibrant and reforming emerging economy to foreign investors.

Since ascending to the presidency in 2016, Mirziyoyev has promised to throw open the once-tightly locked doors of the Uzbek economy to international investors – part of a wider liberalization and reform agenda, widely dubbed by Uzbek authorities as “New Uzbekistan.” In 2020, the government promised to sell – or partially sell – 620 state-owned enterprises, including some of the country’s biggest firms, such as state oil and gas giant Uzbekneftegaz and the Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company, operator of the world’s largest open-pit gold mine, Muruntau.

The positive fundamentals of the Uzbek economy are hard for investors to ignore. Uzbekistan has a population of 36 million, the largest in Central Asia, which is projected to reach 40 million by the end of the decade. Over 60 percent of the population is under 30, the majority of whom are well educated compared to other lower middle-income countries. While still significantly underbanked, the population is showing increasing purchasing power, with real income per capita reaching approximately $1,500 in 2023, a 34.7 percent increase on 2017.

However, so far, many of the promises of the privatization agenda are yet to materialize. Deadlines on the sale or public listings of major enterprises have consistently been delayed. In 2021, Economy and Finance Minister Jamshid Kucharov said that the state expected to sell 10-15 percent of the Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company in 2022, yet this was later postponed to 2024. The latest government decree has pushed the deadline back further to 2025 and the stake up for sale has shrunk to 5 percent via a would-be international listing.

Meanwhile, the privatizations of two large state banks, the Uzbek Industrial and Construction Bank (SQB) and Asakabank, originally set for 2022 and 2023, have been postponed twice, most recently to year-end 2024 and 2025, respectively. International ratings agency Fitch has said it expects further delays amid concerns over the banks’ asset quality, among other factors.

Moreover, the success stories of privatization so far have come with caveats. In 2022, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine meant the state abandoned a deal to sell UzAgroExportBank’s to Russia’s Sovcombank, instead selling it without public tender to a company owned by Olimjon Chodiev, a relative of politically well-connected Uzbek billionaire Patokh Chodiev. In June 2023, the state sold a 73 percent share of Ipoteka Bank to Hungary’s OTP Group. Yet almost a year since the deal, Ipoteka has disclosed a worrying increase in the share of non-performing loans in its books, increasing from 2.7 percent to 11.9 percent between the start and end of 2023 – likely a result of improved financial disclosure brought by OTP revealing a troubling amount of poor-quality legacy loans.

Eight years into Mirziyoyev’s tenure, some are wondering whether Uzbekistan’s privatization agenda will ever reach its lofty goals. Nevertheless, while Uzbek authorities may have been slow to move, there is also an element of the “chicken and egg” dilemma. Without concrete commitments from investors first, there is little motivation for Uzbek authorities to upset the status quo and sell off assets.

International financial institutions, such as the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), have sought to bridge this gap. After resuming its operations in the country in 2017, the EBRD has provided billions in loans to Uzbek state-owned companies. These include so-called “convertible loans,” which can subsequently be transformed into ownership stakes. The idea is that the entry of institutions like the EBRD into the share capital of Uzbek companies will give private investors the peace of mind that reform is occurring and incentivize a sale.

With geopolitical instability in Uzbekistan’s neighborhood and growing uncertainty over the Mirziyoyev administration’s commitment to reform, the investment case for Uzbekistan is under question. Nevertheless, the country’s potential is hard to ignore, and the promise of access to Central Asia’s largest market means all eyes will be firmly fixed on Tashkent in the years to come.
Women as Wives: How Uzbekistan’s Justice System Fails to Serve Women (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [5/14/2024 8:35 AM, Niginakhon Saida, 201K, Neutral]
In Uzbekistan’s patriarchal society, violence against women, especially within family settings, is an everyday affair. Fathers are justified for their “efforts” to raise their daughters right and protecting family honor while husbands and their relatives are justified in molding a new wife into their family’s lifestyle. Women are not seen as individuals, but as an extension of men – of father, brother, and husbands.

A new study, however, also finds that even the judicial system in the country does not see a woman as an individual, but as a “wife” who should prefer to forgive an abusive husband rather than push for his punishment.

Annually, around 40,000 cases of gender-based violence are reported to law enforcement bodies in Uzbekistan, and almost all victims are women. Eighty-five percent of all violence against women takes place at home, making domestic violence the most prevalent type of gender-based violence. In the first seven months of 2023, for example, 21,871 women applied for protection orders; 84.7 percent needed protection from close family members, husbands and mothers-in-law mostly.

A similar proportion was reported earlier by Chair of the Senate Tanzila Nazarbaeva. She noted that between 2021 and 2022, over 72,000 complaints of harassment and violence against women and girls reached law enforcement agencies. More than 61,000 of them, or approximately 85 percent, occurred at home.

But those are only reported cases. Due to socioeconomic dependence on men, lack of support from wider society, stigma, and pressure, many victims do not seek help, especially from police.

Between April and September 2022, a research institute under the jurisdiction of the State Committee for Family and Women conducted a study among 420 women across five geographic units of Uzbekistan – the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Samarkand regions, and Tashkent city. The study found that only 38.8 percent of women reported abuse and harassment they faced to mahalla representatives, while 30.4 percent reached out to friends and relatives. In serious cases, only 22.4 percent sought help from law enforcement, 6.3 percent from social workers and psychologists, 5.5 percent contacted hotlines, and 4.6 percent went to hospitals.

It took immense effort and pressure from civil society activists for Tashkent to finally criminalize domestic violence in April 2023.

In their new study, Utkirbek Kholmirzaev and Zayniddin Shamsidinov from Tashkent State University of Law examined 10,462 court decisions on domestic violence cases, both administrative and criminal, from May to December 2023 shedding light on new angles of an old problem.

One interesting finding that came from the study is that the majority of domestic violence cases that reach the courts involve physical abuse. Of 10,091 administrative domestic violence cases studied, 53 percent “involved physical violence resulting in minor bodily harm.”

The two researchers note that this is because women (and the authorities) often either do not perceive verbal or psychological abuse as violence or do not consider the abuse to be worth taking to court “as it may adversely affect their relationships with their husbands.” The only exception is if psychological abuse is systematic.

Recent statistics published in the media, however, show an increase in psychological abuse. As the protection orders for gender-based violence were introduced, initially more women sought protection due to physical violence, but in recent years, this has changed. In 2020, for example, 46.2 percent of all protection orders were given to women because of physical abuse they faced while 42.5 percent were given to protect women from psychological abuse. In 2022, however, only 27.9 percent of all protection orders were given due to physical abuse, while 54.9 percent of all protection orders were issued due to psychological abuse.

Domestic Violence Cases are more Common in Rural Settings

Kholmirzaev and Shamsidinov found that 82 percent of domestic violence cases that reached courts took place in rural areas. Although the urban and rural populations are equal in number, domestic violence, especially in its criminal form, is most prevalent in rural settings. As of 2024, in Uzbekistan there are 18 million people living in rural areas and another 18.7 million in cities. The researchers also note that in rural areas there is a “higher severity of physical violence,” making up 53 percent of domestic violence vis-a-vis 34 percent of physical abuse in domestic violence court cases in cities.

The Family Institution Is Prioritized

Kholmirzaev and Shamsidinov also found that despite the severity of domestic violence, most perpetrators do not face jail time. Rather, the judicial system “prioritize[s] preservation of family relations” and pushes for reconciliation. The researchers noted that 61 percent of criminal cases related to domestic violence were closed due to reconciliation.

The reconciliation clause under Article 66.1 of the Criminal Code allows for women to close a case, except in aggravating circumstances. Law enforcement bodies are obligated to make sure that the woman is not doing so under pressure.

Administrative cases are a bit different since “cases of domestic violence do not fall under the jurisdiction of reconciliation in the Administrative Offenses Code,” noted the authors. So judges “circumvent” the situation with the help of Article 21 of the Administrative Code, which exempts perpetrators from liability due to the insignificance of an offense. 27.9 percent of administrative cases related to domestic violence studied were terminated as the violence was found to be “insignificant.”

“They justified their decisions through restorative mechanisms such as ‘reconciling the parties,’ ‘absence of claims to each other,’ ‘acknowledgment of guilt and remorse,’ as well as efforts to preserve family relationships,” noted the authors.

The courts, in referring to women not as fellow citizens or individuals with their own agency, but as “wives” also signals the judicial system’s biased approach. “In domestic violence cases, judges often perceive the victims not just as ‘human’ but as ‘wives,’ focusing on family dynamics rather than individual rights,” noted the authors in their publication.

One explanation for the courts pushing for reconciliation might be an increasing divorce rate across the country. “The government, in its efforts to preserve families and reduce divorce rates, supports the facilitation of divorce proceedings through the reconciliation of spouses, creating favorable conditions for such court behavior,” explained Kholmirzaev and Shamsidinovn. To note, despite the steady growth in population, the number of divorces rose from 17,794 in 2010 to nearly 50,000 in 2023. Meanwhile, the number of registered marriages has remained constant, at around 300,000 marriages annually.

“Victim-blaming” the in Legal System

Kholmirzaev and Shamsidinov’s research also found that the courts punish women who are victims of administrative offenses in cases of domestic violence. When women respond to an insult or physical harm from their abusers with similar acts, both parties might claim to be victims of domestic abuse. The courts dismiss the provocative circumstances that led women to resort to insult or abuse, or do not see the retaliation as a self-protective measure. “In the Andijan district, out of 10 randomly selected cases for qualitative analysis, female victims are held accountable in 6 instances,” noted the authors. Similar cases are found in other regions too.

The fact that most judges who review domestic violence cases are men provides a partial explanation. The researchers mentioned that out of 347 judges who reviewed the domestic violence cases under study, only 14 of them (4 percent) were females. Women’s rights advocates and NGOs often report about the prevalence of “deep rooted patriarchal attitudes and stereotypes about gender roles” among police officers and judges in Uzbekistan. The fact that most judges are men does not help. As of 2022, there are 1,278 judges working across the country and only 174 (13.6 percent) of them are women. The number of female judges has been rising in recent years. In 2021, for example, there were only 158 female judges.

Violence against women and girls, especially in family settings, has gained wide attention in Uzbekistan only recently. Until 2018-2019, the public would widely refer to domestic violence as a “family” issue. Introducing a set of new measures such as protection orders, rehabilitation shelters for the victims of gender-based violence, and the criminalization of domestic violence are only initial steps in guaranteeing the safety of women.

Implementation of those measures is hindered by deeply rooted societal norms and biases. Kholmirzaev and Shamsidinov’s research shows how women face challenges within the legal system and are often blamed or penalized for defending themselves against abuse. The laws have changed but the patriarchal attitude among the people, including among judges, has not. The underrepresentation of women among judges only exacerbates this issue, reinforcing patriarchal attitudes within the legal system. To truly defend women, more comprehensive measures need to be taken.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[5/15/2024 2:58 AM, 80.4K followers, 13 retweets, 18 likes]
Afghanistan: On 1 April, the Taliban court convicted Ahmad Fahim Azimi and sentenced him to 1 year in prison based on a false accusation and through an unfair trial. He has been subjected to threats, harassment and arbitrary detention. He must be immediately and unconditionally released. @Zabehulah_M33, @GDI1415, @MoFA_Afg https://amnesty.org/en/documents/asa11/8045/2024/en/

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[5/15/2024 2:58 AM, 80.4K followers, 1 retweet, 1 like]
We urge the Taliban de facto authorities to:
1. Immediately and unconditionally release Ahmad Fahim Azimi;
2. Uphold the obligations imposed under the Convention against Discrimination in Education by immediately allowing girls of all ages to attend school and receive education on an equal basis with boys;
3. Stop the practices of abduction, arbitrary detention, and torture and other ill treatment of people working to defend human rights including those peacefully campaigning for the right to education.

Lynne O’Donnell
@lynnekodonnell
[5/14/2024 10:10 AM, 27.1K followers, 29 retweets, 56 likes]
#Taliban’s transnational extremist agenda is finding traction in #Pakistan’s tribal areas: Pakistani Taliban TTP, ideological blood brothers of Afghan Taliban, are trying to enforce similar anti-education, theocratic agenda by targeting girls education

Elizabeth Threlkeld
@ethrelkeld
[5/14/2024 9:07 AM, 7.3K followers, 2 retweets, 2 likes]
The Taliban reportedly cancelled a planned visit by a Pakistani delegation to meet with Kandahar Gov Mullah Akhund after allegations of a new round of airstrikes targeting TTP in Paktika on Friday. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2466267/pakistan-delegation-visit-to-kandahar-cancelled-by-taliban

Jahanzeb Wesa
@Jahanzi12947158
[5/14/2024 6:13 PM, 2.5K followers]
Afghanistan is a country in which women and girls have paid the price of war and conflict. During the last two decades women and girls have fought for their rights to education, political participation, equality, access to social and economic rights: https://www.nobelwomensinitiative.org/peace-agreement-tyranny-afghanistan
Pakistan
Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan
@ForeignOfficePk
[5/15/2024 12:48 AM, 476.8K followers, 7 retweets, 16 likes]
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 met with Chinese Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang in Beijing today. The two leaders held in-depth discussion on the various aspects of bilateral relations including China Pakistan Economic Corridor (Phase-II), trade, economic cooperation and investment. Connectivity through Khunjerab border crossing and a simplified visa regime were also discussed. They agreed to sustain the growing momentum of Pakistan-China relations in all areas of cooperation and to further deepen iron-clad Pakistan-China friendship Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar noted the progress made by CPEC in energy and infrastructure and expressed the confidence at the positive dividends under Phase-II in the fields of industry, agriculture and mineral development.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan
@ForeignOfficePk
[5/14/2024 12:22 PM, 476.8K followers, 25 retweets, 54 likes]
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 held an interactive session with Pakistani professionals and students in China. The Deputy Prime Minister commended the Pakistani diaspora for its unwavering commitment and invaluable contributions to the socioeconomic development of both Pakistan and China. The Deputy Prime Minister outlined the comprehensive reform agenda of the Government of Pakistan. He reaffirmed the government’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for the overseas Pakistanis and harnessing their ideas and potential for national development agenda. Deputy Prime Minister also responded to questions from the audience and took note of suggestions on a range of issues of national importance. He encouraged Pakistani professionals and students to consider themselves as representatives of Pakistan in their respective institutions and communities in China, and to serve as a bridge of friendship and cooperation between the two nations.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan
@ForeignOfficePk
[5/14/2024 8:53 AM, 476.8K followers, 49 retweets, 89 likes]
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 today held a luncheon meeting with Chairman of China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) Luo Zhaohui in Beijing. The two sides discussed CIDCA’s various projects for the socioeconomic development of Pakistan, especially Gwadar. They also discussed the development of the New Gwadar International Airport, which is expected to be completed and inaugurated this year. Deputy Prime Minister appreciated CIDCA’s pivotal role in China’s support for development projects in developing countries including Pakistan. Chairman CIDCA expressed commitment to early implementation of CIDCA projects, which would give boost to the mutual vision of upgraded version of CPEC.

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[5/14/2024 10:33 AM, 73.2K followers, 9 retweets, 29 likes]
Pakistan outrightly REJECTS all of India’s allegations, “We are witnessing an alarming surge in anti-Pakistan rhetoric from various Indian leaders amidst the ongoing Lok Sabha election campaign. We outrightly reject these irresponsible statements, which cover a wide array of topics including the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, counter-terrorism efforts, state of bilateral relations, and nuclear capabilities.”, responds @ForeignOfficePk to the statements of Indian Leadership.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[5/14/2024 12:04 PM, 42.7K followers, 6 retweets, 22 likes]
.@MiftahIsmail writes that Pakistan’s political leaders "lack both the courage and the competence to change the course of this country." On his new party: "If we ever come to power, it will be only through your votes and not through any backroom deals." https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1187635-pakistan-needs-a-new-political-party
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/14/2024 4:39 AM, 97.7M followers, 8.7K retweets, 49K likes]
I am honoured by the presence of our valued NDA allies in Kashi today. Our alliance represents a commitment to national progress and fulfilling regional aspirations. We will work together for the progress of India in the years to come.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[5/14/2024 4:37 AM, 97.7M followers, 10K retweets, 72K likes]
Filed my nomination papers as a candidate for the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat. It is an honour to serve the people of this historic seat. With the blessings of the people, there have been remarkable achievements over the last decade. This pace of work will get even faster in the times to come.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[5/14/2024 12:24 PM, 3.1M followers, 205 retweets, 1.4K likes]
Delighted to launch the Bangla translation of my book: Why Bharat Matters this evening in Kolkata. A Vishwabandhu Bharat matters because it contributes more, impacts more, and influences more. Its growing talent pool, larger production capabilities and relevance of its experiences to others are increasingly recognised. Bharat is clear about its interests, expresses its views, stands its ground, and contributes to global good. That is why it matters.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[5/14/2024 5:32 AM, 3.1M followers, 446 retweets, 3.9K likes]
By filing his nomination in Varanasi for the third time, Prime Minister @narendramodi officially becomes Kashi’s Lok Sabha candidate again. His strong leadership and visionary outlook have produced a decade of transformation. Today, he is ready to lead the nation towards its goal of Viksit Bharat. Confident that the people of Varanasi, like those of the rest of the nation, will give him their blessings to achieve that goal.
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[5/14/2024 11:29 PM, 637.9K followers, 17 retweets, 28 likes]
ICPD 30 Global Dialogue on Demographic Diversity and Sustainable Development https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1yoKMwzwzjwJQ

Awami League
@albd1971
[5/14/2024 8:10 AM, 637.9K followers, 24 retweets, 78 likes]
To address the housing needs of #lowincome people, particularly those living in slum areas, the Ministry of Housing and Public Works has announced a series of housing projects across various cities of #Bangladesh, including #Dhaka. https://en.somoynews.tv/news/2024-05-13/govt-initiates-housing-projects-for-low-income-families-outside-dhaka #HousingForAll

Awami League
@albd1971
[5/14/2024 6:04 AM, 637.9K followers, 21 retweets, 69 likes]
State Minister for @MoPEMR @NasrulHamid_MP said a roadmap is being formulated to increase the use of #artificialintelligence (AI) and modern technology to ease life. He said that technology will play a pivotal role in building #SmartBangladesh. https://bssnews.net/news/188896

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[5/14/2024 10:25 AM, 257.5K followers, 23 retweets, 53 likes]
The Third edition of Prof. Yadu Nath Khanal Lecture Series was held in Kathmandu on 14 May 2024 amidst the presence of distinguished personalities from various walks of national life. @MofaNepal @sewa_lamsal

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[5/14/2024 10:25 AM, 257.5K followers, 4 retweets, 10 likes]
In this edition, Prof. C. Raja Mohan delivered a lecture on “Nepal-India Relations: Prospects and Pathways”. Foreign Secretary Ms. Sewa Lamsal delivered welcome remarks. Hon. DPMFM delivered concluding remarks.

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[5/14/2024 11:27 AM, 357.2K followers, 12 retweets, 53 likes]
I raised a privilege issue against Sec Public Sec & Controller Immigration for absconding their responsibility by failing to attend @ParliamentLK on #VFS fiasco. Such disregard for duty is disappointing, esp when time ws decided based on their request & convnience to both parties
Central Asia
UNODC Central Asia
@UNODC_ROCA
[5/15/2024 2:05 AM, 2.4K followers, 1 retweet, 1 like]
The first meeting to establish a regional network around the Drug Monitoring Platform was held with experts from countries in Central Asia and South Caucuses. Participants discussed recent trends in drug trafficking.

MFA Kazakhstan
@MFA_KZ
[5/14/2024 2:14 PM, 50.6K followers, 2 retweets, 6 likes]
Kazakhstan & UNICEF Compared Notes on Topical Issues of Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation https://gov.kz/memleket/entities/mfa/press/news/details/770343?lang=en

MFA Kazakhstan
@MFA_KZ
[5/14/2024 2:10 PM, 50.6K followers, 3 retweets, 4 likes]
Prospects for Further Cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross Discussed at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan https://gov.kz/memleket/entities/mfa/press/news/details/770338?lang=en

Leila Nazgul Seiitbek
@l_seiitbek
[5/14/2024 5:58 PM, 3.6K followers, 11 likes]
Kyrgyzstan, called in the past "an island if democracy" in Central Asia, is giving some serious North Korea vibes. The turn was rather quick, took only 3 years for Tashiev and Japarov to turn the country with most active civil society in CA into militarized state org crime group.

Leila Nazgul Seiitbek
@l_seiitbek
[5/14/2024 5:00 PM, 3.6K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
Kyrgyzstan authorities sentenced Olzhobai Shakir, a writer and transgender activist to 5 years in prison for disagreeing with changing the country’s flag + online post calling for an online protest and a plan to hold a one man protest on the square. https://rus.azattyk.org/a/32946778.html

Leila Nazgul Seiitbek
@l_seiitbek
[5/14/2024 3:00 PM, 3.6K followers, 9 retweets, 16 likes]
Uzbekistan continues its transnational repressions against Karakalpak minority activists abroad. At least five of them were sentenced in absentia to lengthy prison sentences. https://freedomforeurasia.org/uzbekistans-transnational-repressions-against-karakalpak-minority-activists-continues/

Saida Mirziyoyeva
@SMirziyoyeva
[5/14/2024 12:10 PM, 17.9K followers, 4 retweets, 58 likes]
Today, we met with @UsAmbUzbekistan HE Jonathan Henick. We discussed the prospects for bilateral cooperation between our countries, including human rights and freedom of speech, and exchanged views on implementing English language teaching programs.

Bakhtiyor Saidov
@FM_Saidov
[5/14/2024 4:06 AM, 3.4K followers, 7 retweets, 15 likes]
Glad to meet with @UN Under-Secretary-General, Executive Director of @UN_Women H.E. Sima Sami Iskandar Bahous, who arrived in #Uzbekistan to participate at the Asian Women’s Forum being held in #Samarkand these days. Appreciate @unwomenchief’s continued support of the reforms aimed at creating the best conditions for women and girls in our country. Ensuring gender equality, promoting women empowerment, realization of their full potential in our society are among top priorities of @Gov_Uz towards achieving long-term prosperity.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[5/14/2024 10:13 AM, 168.7K followers, 6 retweets, 23 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev held a meeting with a delegation headed by @UN Under-Secretary-General and @UN_Women Executive Director, @unwomenchief The delegation praised the reforms implemented in #Uzbekistan for effectively elevating the status and improving the wellbeing of women in the nation. The achievements of the Asian Women’s Forum were also highly commended, emphasizing the importance of developing the forum into a permanent platform dedicated to advancing and expanding women’s rights across #Asia.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[5/14/2024 5:46 AM, 168.7K followers, 3 retweets, 19 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev hosted a delegation from the People’s Republic of China headed by State Council Vice Premier Liu Guozhong. Current issues of further development of multifaceted cooperation and deepening of all-weather strategic partnership relations were considered. Furthermore, they touched upon the aspects of promptly commencing the practical phase of the "#China-#Kyrgyzstan-#Uzbekistan" railway construction project.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[5/14/2024 5:25 AM, 168.7K followers, 4 retweets, 20 likes]
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev received an update on the steps being taken to advance digital technologies in the nation, grow specialized education for the youth, and back initiatives within the sector. This sector has seen a rapid growth recently, marked by a rise in both the number of professionals employed and the services offered. To illustrate, while there were 147 IT companies in the country in 2017, their count is nearing two thousand today. These firms offer high-paying employment over to 30,000 individuals. Additionally, more than 70,000 young adults are involved in IT independently.

{End of Report}
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