epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Tuesday, March 19, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Pakistani Airstrikes in Afghanistan Kill at Least 8, Taliban Officials Say (New York Times)
New York Times [3/18/2024 4:14 PM, Christina Goldbaum and Zia ur-Rehman, 831K, Negative]
Pakistan launched two airstrikes into Afghanistan on Monday morning that killed at least eight people, Afghan officials said, escalating simmering tensions between the two countries.

The pre-dawn strikes were carried out in the Paktika and Khost Provinces in eastern Afghanistan around 3 a.m., Afghan officials said. Three children were among those killed, according to Taliban officials, who condemned the strikes as a violation of Afghan territory.

The strikes came amid a surge of attacks by militants in Pakistan following the Taliban’s seizure of power in neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistani officials have blamed militants harbored on Afghan soil and protected by the Taliban administration for the attacks. Taliban officials have denied those claims.

Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban administration, said in a statement on X that his country “has a long experience of freedom struggle against the superpowers of the world” and “does not allow anyone to invade its territory.”

“Such incidents can have very bad consequences which will be out of Pakistan’s control,” he added.

The Pakistani action came two days after militants attacked a military post in northwestern Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan. In a statement released Monday evening, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the country had carried out “intelligence-based antiterrorist operations” inside Afghanistan and accused the Taliban administration of aiding militants operating in Pakistan.

Over the past two years, the statement said, the Pakistani government has “repeatedly urged the Afghan authorities to take concrete and effective action to ensure that the Afghan soil is not used as a staging ground for terrorism against Pakistan.”

“However, certain elements among those in power in Afghanistan are actively patronizing T.T.P. and using them as a proxy against Pakistan,” it added, referring to the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or T.T.P.

The strikes and statement appeared to signal that Pakistan’s newly elected government would take a tough stance with the Taliban administration in Afghanistan over the militant violence that has roared back in Pakistan in recent years. That violence has shattered a relatively calm period since the country’s military carried out a large-scale military operation in 2014 and forced militants across the border into Afghanistan.

After the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan collapsed in August 2021, the pace of attacks by militants surged in Pakistan, with the assaults themselves becoming bolder. In 2023, the number of attacks by militant groups in Pakistan rose by nearly 20 percent compared with the previous year, according to the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, which monitors extremist violence and is based in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital.

The violence has raised fears of a wider conflict breaking out along the historically contested border, known as the Durand Line, between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It has also fueled growing tensions between the Pakistani authorities and Taliban officials, who deny offering support to militant groups operating in Pakistan, including their ally, the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistani officials have repeatedly asked the Taliban administration in Afghanistan to rein in the militants. In response, the Taliban authorities have suggested that Pakistan address the militants’ demands and have offered to mediate talks.

The Pakistani authorities’ frustration with the Taliban administration appeared to boil over in September, when the Pakistani government announced a policy aimed at expelling the more than half a million Afghans residing illegally in Pakistan.

The strikes on Monday appeared to send another message to the Taliban administration that Pakistan’s military and newly elected government would take a tougher stance on the militant violence.

The airstrikes sought to “dispel perceptions of a weak Pakistani state,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, head of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies. They also “reflect a unified counterterrorism policy between the new civilian government and the military,” he added.

While sporadic cross-border shelling from Pakistan frequently killed civilians in Afghanistan during the U.S.-led war, the strikes on Monday were the first that Pakistan had launched into Afghanistan in nearly two years. The last strikes, in April 2022, killed at least 45 people in Khost and Kunar Provinces of eastern Afghanistan.

The strikes on Monday were part of the military’s response to the attack on the military post on Saturday, a suicide blast that killed seven members of the Pakistani security forces, according to the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs. That attack also prompted the military to carry out an operation in the area and kill eight militants, according to a statement on Monday by the Inter-Services Public Relations office, the Pakistani military’s media arm.

Pakistani government officials promised an enduring response to the militants’ attack.

“Pakistan has decided that whoever enters our borders, homes or country to commit terror, we will respond to them strongly, regardless of their identity or country of origin,” President Asif Ali Zardari said while speaking at the funeral prayers for the army officers killed in the attack.
Pakistan Airstrikes Send Taliban a Message on Militant Attacks (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [3/18/2024 4:29 PM, Saeed Shah and Esmatullah Kohsar, 810K, Negative]
Just weeks after it carried out airstrikes inside Iran, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan early Monday aimed at militants that it says have been targeting its security forces in a worsening wave of attacks.

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban regime have increased since Afghanistan fell to the militant group in 2021. Islamabad says the Pakistani militants, known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, are based over the border in Afghanistan. The Taliban denies that it hosts Pakistani militants and other international jihadists.

“Certain elements among those in power in Afghanistan are actively patronizing TTP and using them as a proxy against Pakistan,” said a statement from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry called the TTP a threat to regional peace and security.

Security analysts said Pakistan, which is engulfed in economic and political crises, is telling its neighbors—including rival India—that its defenses are as strong as ever.

“This is a signal from Pakistan that whichever neighbor hits us, they will have to pay,” said Ejaz Haider, a security analyst based in the eastern city of Lahore.

A Pakistani security official said the airstrikes were in response to an attack on Saturday that killed at least seven military personnel, including a relatively high-ranking officer. The official said the Pakistani air force carried out over a dozen airstrikes and hit seven militant hide-outs in response.

The Taliban’s army exchanged fire across the border with Pakistani soldiers following the early morning airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan.

Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside Iran in January after Tehran used missiles and drones to strike what it said were Iranian militants operating from Pakistan’s territory. The two countries subsequently sought to de-escalate the situation and referred to their relationship as brotherly.

The Taliban, however, has vowed to retaliate over Monday’s strikes, which Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid called “a reckless action.” Pakistani planes bombed targets in the eastern Afghan provinces of Paktika and Khost, killing five women and three children, according to the spokesman.

“Pakistan should not blame Afghanistan for the lack of control, incompetence and problems in its own territory,” said Mujahid. “Such incidents can have very bad consequences which will not be in Pakistan’s control.”

The Pakistani security official denied that civilians had been killed.

In Washington, the State Department said that it regretted the loss of civilian lives caused by the Pakistani airstrikes. It also condemned the attack Saturday that killed the Pakistani soldiers.

“We urge the Taliban to ensure that terrorist attacks are not launched from Afghan soil and we urge Pakistan to exercise restraint and ensure civilians are not harmed in their counterterrorism efforts,” said the State Department’s deputy spokesman, Vedant Patel.

Pakistani officials said they have grown frustrated after more than two years of trying to persuade the Taliban to take action against the Pakistani militants. The Taliban isn’t willing to condemn terrorist attacks happening in Pakistan, they said.

The Taliban’s diplomatic isolation means it can’t afford to alienate militant factions as it fends off attacks from a branch of Islamic State.

Tit-for-tat actions could further destabilize the two fragile nations but are unlikely to spill over into a broader conflict. Afghanistan has limited military options, which means that Pakistan could face more militant attacks, said Haider, the security analyst.

Further Pakistani airstrikes could happen if the Taliban’s behavior doesn’t change, experts said, now that Islamabad has set a precedent of imposing a cost on what it sees as Taliban support for militants seeking to destabilize Pakistan.

The United Nations has said that the Taliban allows the presence of foreign militants in Afghanistan. Iran and other central Asian nations are also concerned about foreign jihadists operating from Afghanistan. In 2022, a U.S. drone strike in Kabul killed the al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The Taliban and TTP have built close links over the years, according to experts. Pakistan was a vital sanctuary for the insurgents during the two decades that the Taliban was fighting U.S.-led international forces. Pakistani militants also hosted and joined them in the fight, creating strong bonds between the two groups.

The TTP was formed in 2007 as a copycat movement of the Taliban. In its earlier phase, it targeted civilians, hitting schools, mosques and markets. It has been largely based across the border following Pakistani military operations in 2014.

No country has recognized the Taliban administration, with many of its ministers remaining under international sanctions. Against that backdrop, the regime has resisted international pressures over issues such as the ban on the schooling of older girls and restrictions on women working.

Since the 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, attacks on police and army targets inside Pakistan have dramatically escalated.

In January last year, some 80 people were killed in a bombing at a mosque on a police compound in Peshawar that was claimed by a faction of the Pakistan Taliban. In December, a squad of gunmen and suicide bombers attacked an army post in northwest Pakistan, killing at least 23 soldiers.

In the attack over the weekend in northern Pakistan, militants rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into a building, which was followed by multiple suicide attacks, Pakistan’s military said. A portion of the building collapsed, causing casualties. A lieutenant colonel died in the crossfire while leading a counterattack, the military said.
Afghanistan hits back after Pakistani air strikes kill eight (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [3/18/2024 11:23 AM, Eltaf Najafizada, Negative]
Afghanistan’s forces targeted Pakistani military posts along the border, retaliating against air strikes that killed eight people in what has become the first known counterattack from the Taliban since they took power more than two years ago.

The National Islamic Army of Afghanistan is responding to Pakistan by targeting the military posts along the border with “heavy weapons,” the Taliban-controlled Ministry of Defense said in a post on X. “The defense and security forces are ready to respond to any aggressive actions.”

The move followed Pakistan’s military air strikes in east Afghanistan on early Monday, which left five women and three children dead. The Taliban called the attack a violation of Afghanistan’s sovereignty, warning there will be severe consequences.

Tensions between the two countries have been rising since the Taliban took power in 2021. Islamabad has repeatedly claimed that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or the TTP, have threatened to overthrow the government and are sheltering in Afghanistan. Kabul rejects these allegations.

Monday’s strikes were intelligence-based and in retaliation to cross-border assaults by militants hiding in Afghanistan, Pakistan foreign ministry said in a statement. Calling the TTP a collective threat to regional peace, Islamabad reiterated its demand to seek a joint solution with Afghanistan to curb terrorism.

A local offshoot of the Taliban, the TTP claimed responsibility for a suicide bomb attack killing at least 100 people last year in Pakistan’s northwestern city of Peshawar — one of the deadliest in recent history. Pakistan has said it will target these militants if Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are reluctant to rein them in.

Taliban leaders, including Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani — who was once seen as a close collaborator with Pakistan’s powerful spy agency, had warned Islamabad in the past for carrying out such strikes on Afghan soil.

The air strikes on early Monday came two days after a suicide bomber rammed an explosive-laden truck into a military post in northwest Pakistan. Seven soldiers were killed.
Taliban Says It Strikes Back After Deadly Pakistani Strikes (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [3/18/2024 3:42 PM, Staff, 235K, Negative]
Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government said its border forces targeted the Pakistani military installation along its eastern border in retaliation for two air strikes that Islamabad carried out on Afghan territory that killed eight people, including three children.

The Taliban’s artillery shelling on March 18 came hours after Pakistani warplanes bombed "militant hideouts" inside Afghanistan that Islamabad said belonged to Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban.

In Kurram, a western district in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, locals confirmed the Taliban’s shelling of the area. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

Haji Nowroz Ali, a local tribal leader, told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal that a gunbattle between the Taliban and Pakistani forces ensued after four rockets were fired at the border village of Kharlachi from Afghanistan.

Pro-Taliban accounts on X, formerly Twitter, shared a video they claimed showed the Taliban’s attacks on Pakistani installations in what appeared to be Kharlachi.

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been on the rise since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of the U.S.-led forces in August 2021. Islamabad accuses the conservative Islamist movement of harboring TTP militants on its territory and allowing them to carry out cross-border attacks in Pakistan. Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban deny this.

At "around 3 a.m., Pakistani aircraft bombarded civilian homes" in Afghanistan’s southeastern provinces of Khost and Paktika bordering Pakistan, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement.

"Pakistan should not blame Afghanistan for the lack of control, incompetence, and problems in its own territory," Mujahid said in a statement.

He added the strikes targeted Pakistan’s Barmal district of Paktika and the Spera district of Khost, killing three women and three children in Paktika, and two women in Khost.

In a March 18 statement, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry defended the attacks.

"Certain elements among those in power in Afghanistan are actively patronizing the TTP and using them as a proxy against Pakistan," the statement said, adding that groups like the TTP are a collective security, which requires the two neighbors to "work toward finding joint solutions in countering terrorism and to prevent any terrorist organization from sabotaging bilateral relations."

Pakistani officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have said that the house of Abdullah Shah, one of the TTP commanders reportedly hiding in Afghanistan, was apparently targeted in the attacks in Paktika.

But Mujahid rejected the accusation and said Shah was inside Pakistan.

"The same [Pashtun] tribe lives on both sides [of the Durand Line border]. Its members frequently move among their communities," he said in a statement.

The TTP said the strikes targeted civilians, denying Shah’s house had been hit.

The group issued a video in which Shah claimed to be present in the Shawal areas of Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan’s Paktika and Khost Provinces.

An unconfirmed social media post said "multiple" Pakistan strikes targeted the Paktika, Khost, and Kunar regions.

The reported strikes came after seven Pakistani soldiers were killed and 17 others wounded in a militant attack that targeted a sprawling army post in the volatile North Waziristan district near the Afghan border on March 16.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, who attended the funeral of those killed in the attack on March 17, said Islamabad would give "a befitting reply to the terrorists" that perpetrated the attack.
Tensions high after Pakistan launches cross-border attacks into Afghanistan (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [3/18/2024 6:05 AM, Abid Hussain, 2060K, Negative]
Pakistan has launched overnight air attacks inside Afghanistan, while the Taliban claimed hours later to have fired across the border.

Tensions flared on Monday between Islamabad and Kabul following the overnight raids. Pakistan said the attack had targeted armed groups hiding out in border regions. The Taliban said eight women and children were killed.

The Afghan defence ministry claimed later on Monday to have fired across the border at Pakistan positions. Islamabad has not yet commented on the claim.

Pakistani military and foreign ministry sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that the “retaliatory” attacks had targeted the hideouts of commanders of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistani Taliban, due to “terrorist activities being sponsored and conducted from across border”.

They offered few details. However, on Saturday, a group of suicide bombers targeted a military check post in Pakistan’s North Waziristan district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which neighbours Afghanistan, killing seven soldiers.

Afghanistan’s interim government said the Pakistani jets had hit the houses of “ordinary people” in Paktika and Khost provinces. They reported that at least eight people were killed; five women and three children.

In a statement issued on X, government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the individual Pakistan claimed to have targeted continues to live in Pakistan.

Kabul “strongly condemns” the “reckless action” which is a violation of Afghanistan territory, he continued.

“The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which has a long experience of freedom struggle against the superpowers of the world, does not allow anyone to invade its territory,” the post read.

Tension has risen between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban government seized power in 2021. Islamabad claims that hostile armed groups carry out regular attacks from across the border.

Afghanistan reported in April 2022 that Pakistani air strikes in the east of the country killed 47 people.

Analysts suggest that Monday’s strike can be linked to the suicide attack two days ago, which was claimed by a newly formed group, Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad, which is led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur, leader of a Pakistani Taliban faction based in North Waziristan.

In response, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif repeated the claim that armed groups are using Afghan soil from which to launch terrorist attacks inside Pakistan.

“Terrorism against us is mostly being conducted from Afghanistan,” he said on Sunday.

It’s a charge the Afghan Taliban has repeatedly denied.

“We reject the presence of any … foreign groups in Afghanistan and they are not allowed to operate on Afghan soil. In this regard, we have made our utmost effort and continue to do so; but one thing we must accept is that Afghanistan shares a very long border area with Pakistan, and there are places with rugged terrain including mountains and forests, and places that might be out of our control,” Mujahid said in response.

Bloody year

Last year was bloody in Pakistan, with more than 650 attacks reported across the country, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,000 people, most of whom were security personnel.

Most attacks targeted the western provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which border Afghanistan.

While there have been various armed groups which have conducted acts of violence in Pakistan, the state’s main adversary has been the TTP, which is ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban.

Since its founding in 2007, the TTP has targeted civilians and law enforcement personnel in Pakistan, resulting in thousands of deaths.

The group demands the imposition of their hardline interpretation of Islamic laws, as well as a reversal of Pakistan’s decision to merge their tribal areas with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher on armed groups in South and Central Asia, says Pakistan’s air strikes on Monday appear to be a response to the suicide attack two days previously.

“The attack in North Waziristan was extraordinarily large, reportedly involving six suicide bombers and a large truck bomb. The presence of top Pakistani officials, including the president and army chief, at the funerals, suggested potential future cross-border actions by Pakistan,” he told Al Jazeera.

Muhammad Amir Rana, an Islamabad-based security analyst and director of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) says it is not unusual for the TTP or other armed groups to launch attacks during the month of Ramadan.

“The state institutions have now adopted a tit-for-tat response to any threats. The Taliban are known to support the TTP, and there have been instances of their own members being involved in attacks in Pakistan,” he told Al Jazeera.

It has also been noted that the sharp response of Pakistan against targets in Afghanistan is similar in nature to its reaction to January’s cross-border attacks by Iran.

However, Rana suggests that the possibility of retaliatory attacks on targets in Pakistan following Monday’s air raids cannot be dismissed.

“Unless diplomatic channels are activated, tensions between the two countries are likely to escalate in the coming weeks,” he cautioned.
Barren Fields and Empty Stomachs: Afghanistan’s Long, Punishing Drought (New York Times)
New York Times [3/19/2024 12:01 AM, Lynsey Addario and Victoria Kim, 831K, Negative]
They awake in the mornings to find another family has left. Half of one village, the entirety of the next have departed in the years since the water dried up — in search of jobs, of food, of any means of survival. Those who remain pick apart the abandoned homes and burn the bits for firewood.

They speak of the lushness that once blessed this corner of southwestern Afghanistan. Now, it’s parched as far as the eye can see. Boats sit on bone-dry banks of sand. What paltry water dribbles out from deep beneath the arid earth is salt-laced, cracking their hands and leaving streaks in their clothes.

Several years of punishing drought has displaced entire swaths of Afghanistan, one of the nations most vulnerable to climate change, leaving millions of children malnourished and plunging already impoverished families into deeper desperation. And there is no relief in sight.

In Noor Ali’s village in Chakhansur district, near the border with Iran, four families remain out of the 40 who once lived there. Mr. Ali, a 42-year-old father of eight who used to grow cantaloupes and wheat, in addition to raising cattle, goats and sheep, is too poor to leave. His family is subsisting on a dwindling 440-pound bag of flour, bought with a loan.

“I have no options. I am waiting for God,” he said. “I am hoping for water to come.”

The desperation in rural areas, where a majority of Afghanistan’s population lives, has forced families into impossible cycles of debt.

Rahmatullah Anwari, 30, who used to grow rain-dependent wheat, left his home in Badghis Province in the country’s north for an encampment that has sprung up on the outskirts of Herat, the capital of an adjacent province. He borrowed money to feed his family of eight and to pay for his father’s medical treatment. One of the villagers who had lent him money demanded his 8-year-old daughter in exchange for part of the loan.

“I have a hole in my heart when I think of them coming and taking my daughter,” he said.

Mohammed Khan Musazai, 40, had bought cattle on loan, but they were swept away in a flood — when rain comes, it comes erratically, and it has caused catastrophic flooding. The lenders took his land and also wanted his daughter, who was just 4 at the time.

Nazdana, a 25-year-old who is one of his two wives and is the girl’s mother, offered to sell her own kidney instead — an illegal practice that has become so common that some have taken to referring to the Herat encampment as the “one-kidney village.”

She has a fresh scar on her stomach from the kidney extraction, but the family’s debt is still only half paid.

“They asked me for this daughter, and I’m not going to give her,” she said. “My daughter is still very young. She still has a lot of hopes and dreams that she should realize.”

A few years ago, 30-year-old Khanjar Kuchai was thinking about going back to school or becoming a shepherd. He’d served in Afghanistan’s special forces, fighting alongside NATO troops. Now, he is figuring out survival a day at a time — on this day, he was salvaging wood from a relative’s abandoned home.

“They all left for Iran because there is no water,” he said. “Nobody was thinking that this water could dry up. It’s been two years like this.”

At Zooradin High School in Chakhansur, where the winds whip through the empty window frames, there has been no running water in the two years since the well ran dry. Students regularly fall ill from poor hygiene. The lack of rain, aid groups say, creates perfect conditions for waterborne diseases like cholera.

Mondo, a mother from Badghis who gave only her first name, has lost two of her children in the drought. She miscarried one child and lost another at just 3 months because the family had almost nothing to eat.

Her 9-month-old is always hungry, but she hasn’t been able to produce milk for some time. The large plots of land where her family once grew plentiful wheat, and occasionally poppy for opium, have long since gone barren.

“All day we are waiting to eat something,” she said. Surrounding her in a brightly painted free clinic run by Doctors Without Borders were other mothers clutching frail, famished babies.

With three-quarters of the country’s 34 provinces experiencing severe or catastrophic drought conditions, few corners of the country are untouched by the disaster.

In Jowzjan Province in northern Afghanistan, some who have solar panels have bored even deeper electric-powered wells and are now growing cotton, which can bring higher profits than other crops. But cotton consumes even more water.

“The Taliban came, and the drought came with them,” said Ghulam Nabi, 60, who is newly cultivating cotton.

Even after the years of drought, many speak as if they can still vividly see their land as it once was — green and plentiful, teeming with melons and cumin and wheat, river birds flitting overhead as fishing boats navigated through the waterways.

With little assistance from the Taliban authorities and international aid perennially falling far short, some say all they can do is trust that the water will someday return.

“We have these memories that these places were completely green,” says Suhrab Kashani, 29, a school principal. “We just pass the days and nights until the water comes.”
Milley set to testify at Afghanistan hearing: What to know (The Hill)
The Hill [3/18/2024 3:14 PM, Brad Dress, 1592K, Negative]
Retired Gen. Mark Milley, the former Joint Chiefs of Staff chair, is set to testify on Tuesday at a high-stakes House committee hearing on the Biden administration’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Milley will testify at the 1 p.m. Foreign Affairs Committee hearing along with retired Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the former head of U.S. Central Command, the combat command center that oversees American troops across the Middle East region.

For Milley, the congressional testimony will be his first since retiring at the end of last year as the nation’s highest-ranking military officer.

Now that he is out of office, lawmakers may try to pry out of Milley a more candid assessment of the chaotic U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the hearing.

Milley, McKenzie have previously discussed regrets over Afghanistan

Milley and McKenzie have testified before on the Afghanistan pullout, including shortly after the fact.

In September 2021, both generals told a Senate committee they recommended maintaining a small force in Afghanistan instead of a full withdrawal.

In this past September as he was preparing to exit his post, Milley said the withdrawal was a “strategic failure” and that he has “lots of regrets.”

“It didn’t end the way I wanted it. That didn’t end the way any of us wanted it,” he told ABC News. “In the broader sense, the war was lost.”

McKenzie told NPR in 2022 he has regrets about the withdrawal and was upset that the U.S. was not able to get everyone out from the country.

“That’s something that haunts me to this day,” he said.

House investigating Biden’s Afghan withdrawal

The hearing comes as House Foreign Affairs Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) is investigating the pullout in what has become a bitter feud with the Biden administration.

McCaul last month threatened to hold Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt of Congress for what he says is a failure to turn over all the required documents related to the withdrawal.

Earlier this month, McCaul said he was postponing holding Blinken in contempt after the secretary agreed to send him the documents. The two have battled over documents since January 2023.

McCaul said those new documents will “provide crucial information” for his investigation.

He has been requesting interview notes from the State Department’s After-Action Review (AAR) of the Afghanistan withdrawal, which he says will provide first-hand accounts of the August 2021 events.

The AAR, released last summer, detailed failures in the Trump and Biden administrations that contributed to the chaotic withdrawal.

The review, conducted over 90 days, faulted senior officials for a failure to prepare for worst-case scenarios or listen to dissenting opinions on the matter.

Republicans have long been upset with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was plagued by a messy evacuation for U.S. citizens and Afghans fleeing the country, who were seen clinging to the wheels of transportation aircraft in a desperate bid to leave.

On the ground, the Taliban quickly swept to power as American forces left. And 13 U.S. service members died after ISIS-K suicide bombers targeted Abbey Gate at the Kabul airport.

Congress has also held hearings on Afghanistan with testimony from service members, including an emotional one last year involving former Marine Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews.

The former Marine testified he was “plain and simple” ignored after requesting to take out a target that would later be confirmed as the suicide bomber near Abbey Gate.

House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) opened an investigation into the concerns raised by Vargas-Andrews.

Administration has been defensive

The GOP has criticized President Biden for poor planning and a hasty withdrawal, but the administration has downplayed its responsibility.

Last spring, the White House put out a 12-page document that largely pins the blame on the Trump administration, accusing its predecessors of poor planning that emboldened the rise of the Taliban.

“President Biden had committed to ending the war in Afghanistan, but when he came into office he was confronted with difficult realities left to him by the Trump Administration,” the report said.

The Biden administration also said Trump’s administration had created a backlog of Special Immigrant Visas that hampered evacuation efforts.

White House national security communications adviser John Kirby fended off criticism when pressed by reporters last spring.

“For all this talk of chaos, I just didn’t see it. Not from my perch,” Kirby said.

The Biden administration did acknowledge it should prepare better for needed evacuations from countries.
Pakistan
Pakistan Keeps Key Rate at Record With IMF Talks Underway (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [3/18/2024 1:20 PM, Faseeh Mangi, 5543K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s central bank held the key interest rate at a record high for a sixth straight meeting, as a newly-elected government holds loan talks with the International Monetary Fund that wants a tight monetary policy to curb inflation.

The State Bank of Pakistan kept the target rate at 22%, according to a statement on Monday. Thirty of the 37 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a hold while the rest expected a cut.

The decision comes as a new government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif seeks a new loan of at least $6 billion from the multilateral lender. An IMF mission visiting Pakistan will conclude talks on Monday for a review of an existing program, which could see the release of the final tranche of $1.1 billion.

The rate-setters “observed that despite the sharp deceleration in February, the level of inflation remains high and its outlook is susceptible to risks,” the central bank said in a statement on its website. “This warrants a cautious approach and requires continuity of the current monetary stance.”

Most analysts expect the central bank to start its rate cut cycle from the next meeting on April 29 if consumer price gains continue to ease. Pakistan’s inflation pace slowed to 23.06% in February, the lowest in almost two years and exceeding market expectations.

Bond managers are reducing their exposure to Pakistan’s debt after a rally of almost 25% this year, as the nation’s history of policy slippage cast a cloud over negotiations for a new IMF bailout program.

Economists are watching to see if consumer price gains fall below the interest rate next month, which could be a sign for the central bank to start easing. Pakistan’s interest rates are expected to drop by 600 basis points to 16% by the end of the year, according to a median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Pakistan remains heavily reliant on IMF aid as the nation faces $24.3 billion in external financing needs in the fiscal year starting July, about three times its foreign exchange reserves. It needs to make a payment of about $1 billion for dollar bonds maturing in April.

The nation will easily repay a total of $3.5 billion of foreign debt due by June-end, State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad said in an analyst briefing. Another $6 billion is expected to be rolled over, said Ahmad.

The rupee may come under pressure after nearly six months of stability due to the debt repayments, according to a report by Intermarket Securities Ltd. last week. Any delay in a new IMF agreement could lead to a ramp up in speculation in the currency market, the brokerage said.
Pakistan’s central bank keeps interest rate on hold at 22% (Reuters)
Reuters [3/18/2024 8:22 AM, Ariba Shahid, 5239K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s central bank on Monday held its key interest rate at 22% as expected for a sixth straight policy meeting as inflation risks continued to loom.

The decision was in line with the expectations of a majority of analysts, although most are also expecting rate cuts from the second quarter of this year.

The bank said that although the inflation rate had eased in February, it remained high and subject to risks.

"This warrants a cautious approach and requires continuity of the current monetary stance to bring inflation down to the target range of 5–7 percent by September 2025," the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) monetary policy committee said in a statement.

Monday’s policy decision is the last ahead of the April expiry of a $3 billion standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund.

Pakistan’s key rate was last raised in June to fight persistent inflationary pressures and to meet one of the conditions set by the IMF for securing the critical bailout.

The bank noted the improved inflation figures in February, when the country’s consumer price index rose 23.1% year on year, its slowest since June 2022, partly due to the "base effect".

But it noted that "going forward, any further adjustments in administered prices or fiscal measures that may push prices up pose risk to the near and medium-term inflation outlook."

"Cognizant of these risks, the Committee assessed that it is prudent to continue with the current monetary policy stance at this stage," the statement added.

"The decision to hold rates is guided by the inflation outlook, as opposed to the argument of debt burden and economic slowdown impact of a high policy rate," said Sajid Javed Amin, deputy executive director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

He added that the central bank must continue its "non-adventurous monetary policy stance" basing rate decisions on the inflation outlook, its primary mandate.

In its last decision in January, the central bank had raised the average inflation forecast for the fiscal year ending in June to 23%-25%, from a previous projection of 20%-22%, due to rising gas and electricity prices.

Inflation hit an all-time high of 38% in May last year, driven partly by new taxation measures imposed to comply with IMF’s demands for a rescue programme that helped the nation avert a sovereign debt default.

During a call with analysts, the central bank chief said that talks with the lender over the third tranche of the ongoing bailout programme were progressing, but didn’t comment on what outcome he expected from the talk.

He said the central bank expected a rollover of $2 billion in debt payments this week, and another $4 billion rollover by June.
Pakistan targets new IMF deal with banker atop Finance Ministry (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [3/18/2024 10:53 PM, Adnan Aamir, 293K, Negative]
Pakistan and its new finance minister are setting their sights on a fresh deal with the International Monetary Fund, although the former banker’s appointment and other cabinet picks have raised eyebrows.

Muhammad Aurangzeb, 59 and a Dutch citizen until his appointment, was given the finance portfolio last week as returning Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif assembled his cabinet following the country’s controversial Feb. 8 elections. Aurangzeb was previously CEO of Pakistan’s largest bank, Habib Bank, after a career at major Western institutions including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.

Aurnagzeb’s "main job" will be to secure another round of funding from the IMF, Ikram ul Haq, an expert on economy and taxation, told Nikkei Asia. An IMF team this week was expected to conclude a review of Pakistan’s $3 billion standby arrangement, which helped the country stave off a sovereign default but ends in April. A successful review would result in the country getting $1.1 billion from the Washington-based lender.

"[The] government would use the opportunity during the review meetings to make a case for a longer and larger loan program under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility," Aurangzeb told local media last week.

But Aurangzeb’s appointment is the latest in a string of controversies related to the elections, in which no party won a majority. Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) forged a coalition to take power, while allies of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan allege that the process was rigged against his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

The banker was born in Lahore but is understood to have no longer held Pakistani citizenship. As the law states that foreign nationals cannot hold public office, he renounced his Dutch nationality and reacquired Pakistani citizenship during the cabinet’s first meeting, according to local media.

"Overseas Pakistanis are not even allowed to vote, but when required, foreign nationals are inducted into the cabinet by bending the rules," said Tahir Naeem Malik, a professor of international relations at the National University of Modern Languages in Islamabad.

The PTI camp wants the IMF to make talks contingent upon an independent audit of the elections. In late February, the fund’s communications director declined to comment on that, simply telling reporters, "We look forward to working with the new government on policies to ensure macroeconomic stability and prosperity for all of Pakistan’s citizens."

On why the government turned to a political outsider like Aurnagzeb, experts say that key parties in Pakistan lack the necessary know-how.

"It is unfortunate that none of the political parties have established their in-house expertise to tackle the economic challenges faced by the country," said Haq, who also has a doctorate in law. "A person lacking any experience in public service can never implement an economic agenda that is pro-growth and pro-people."

Malik from NUML observed that "political parties don’t have their economic reform agenda or the economists to implement it." He said this is why every government recruits people from the private sector to key positions like governor of the State Bank and others.

"Political governments put bankers in charge of the economy in the hopes that they bring financial discipline to the struggling economy," Malik said.

The government did have the option of calling on an experienced finance minister, Ishaq Dar, a longtime associate of the Sharifs and a relative by marriage. Instead, Dar was appointed foreign minister, a post he has never held before.

"Ishaq Dar was finance minister four times but he never bothered to undertake structural reforms," Haq said. He added that Dar’s stints in the job were always spent firefighting, without pushing for fundamental solutions.

A source close to the PML-N, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "Ishaq Dar as a foreign minister will aim to further improve Pakistan’s relations with Gulf countries, with the backing of Nawaz Sharif," the party patriarch who had been tipped to become prime minister again before an unconvincing election performance prompted a shift to his younger brother, Shehbaz.

"That’s why the appointment of Dar as foreign minister is a good choice," the source said.

Another cabinet appointment drawing scrutiny is that of Mohsin Naqvi, who has been handed the portfolio of the Interior Ministry and concurrently chairs the Pakistan Cricket Board.

As head of the Interior Ministry, Naqvi will be in charge of all federal law enforcement in Pakistan. But critics say his previous role as the caretaker chief minister of Punjab province, from January 2023 until last month, makes his selection inappropriate.

Officials in a caretaker setup are supposed to be neutral and oversee elections. If a top caretaker official joins a government after elections he or she supervised, that neutrality is called into doubt. Naqvi is even running in the upcoming Senate elections.

"A minister, chief minister, or prime minister of the interim caretaker set-up cannot contest elections that they supervised. If they can’t even contest elections, how can they even think of joining the cabinet of the incumbent government? Strange things are happening in Pakistan," Ali Muhammad Khan, a leader of the PTI, posted on X.

A government official, who did not want to be named, expressed concern. "It’s likely that the appointment of Naqvi in the cabinet can be challenged in the courts," the official said. "An adverse decision by the courts will be a major setback for the government."
In Pakistan, arrest of popular journalist poses fresh threat to vibrant media landscape (Christian Science Monitor)
Christian Science Monitor [3/18/2024 4:50 PM, Hasan Ali, 92K, Negative]
The legal troubles of a prominent Pakistani journalist have raised concern about the state of press freedom in the country.

Asad Ali Toor, host of the popular YouTube series “Uncensored,” was granted bail on Saturday after spending three weeks in jail on charges of launching an “explicit and malicious” campaign against the superior judiciary.

Mr. Toor had been fiercely critical of the judiciary in the run up to this year’s general election, accusing the country’s top judge, Qazi Faez Isa, of derailing democracy by stripping the major political party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf of its electoral symbol before the Feb. 8 vote. “The historian will write about [Chief Justice Isa] ... as the man who helped the military block the path of a political party,” he said in one of his vlogs.

Mr. Toor’s lawyers say he was kept in crowded, inhumane conditions and pressured to reveal his sources. He is now expected to lie low as lawyers petition for the charges to be dismissed. Regardless of the outcome, analysts say Mr. Toor’s ordeal is reflective of mounting pressures faced by independent media in Pakistan.

The country’s media landscape is among the most vibrant in Asia, with more than 40 TV news channels and as many as 700 newspapers in print. Yet press freedom activists warn that the famously boisterous media has become a target of Pakistan’s military establishment, which holds enormous sway over law and politics. Some hoped recent elections would herald in change, but ongoing cases suggest that anti-journalist hostility is now the norm.

“The newly formed government has done nothing to ameliorate the situation, but rather added to it by continuing this clampdown,” says journalist Taha Siddiqui, who has been living in exile since 2018.

Pakistani journalists adapt

Pakistani media blossomed under the military dictatorship of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who took control in a bloodless coup in October 1999. At the time, Pakistan Television, the state broadcaster, held a monopoly over broadcasting, but had so little credibility among the general public that viewers would turn to Indian television to get their news. Under General Musharraf’s rule, legislation was introduced to liberalize the media landscape and create space for private news channels to enter the market. In the two decades since, Pakistan has seen a proliferation of news outlets that have created a culture of muckraking and critical inquiry. Today, that culture is under threat.

Media-watchers trace the current crackdown to the time of the “hybrid regime” – a power-sharing alliance between the government of Imran Khan and the top brass of the Pakistan army, which ended with Mr. Khan’s ouster in a 2022 vote of no-confidence. During the early days of the regime, journalists critical of the military and of Mr. Khan’s government were taken off air and blacklisted.

“The mainstream media was brought to heel a while ago,” says veteran journalist Cyril Almeida. “It now essentially reports what the military allows it to.”

Many unemployed journalists migrated to YouTube, where Mr. Almeida says reporters have “yet to be tamed.” On social media, they were free to produce vlogs on sensitive issues and, depending on the platform’s monetization policy, made decent money doing it.

One of the first to make the switch was Mr. Toor, a TV news producer who used his twice daily vlogs to report on areas that were considered no-go zones for the mainstream media.

Mr. Toor built his audience of 160,000 by opposing military intervention in the political sphere, a position that he believes made him a target for the powers that be.

In May 2021, Mr. Toor was hospitalized after being attacked in his apartment by a group of men who allegedly identified themselves as belonging to Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency. At the time, many of the political parties opposed to Mr. Khan’s government condemned the attack as an example of state tyranny. Notably, he was visited by then-leader of the opposition, Shehbaz Sharif, and senior Pakistan Muslim League-N politician Maryam Nawaz. Today, Mr. Sharif is serving as prime minister and Ms. Nawaz as chief minister of Punjab, but the persecution of journalists has not abated.

Weak press protections

Pakistan ranks 150 out of 180 on the 2023 Global Press Freedom Index compiled by Reporters Without Borders, a modest uptick from 2022 but still lower than when Mr. Khan took office. The report states that “political parties in opposition support press freedom, but are first to restrict it when in power.”

At least 64 Pakistani journalists have been killed since 1992, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), and many more have faced physical or legal harassment. Indeed, legal protections are often vague and filled with caveats.

Pakistan’s Constitution, while promising freedom of the press, subjects this freedom to “any reasonable restrictions imposed in the interest of … the integrity, security or defence of Pakistan.” Critics say this provision allows the state to prosecute journalists who speak up against the excesses of state institutions, including the judiciary and military establishment.

Mr. Toor has been charged under three sections of the 2016 Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, a piece of legislation that free speech campaigners say is designed to stifle criticism of the country’s powerful army. His release comes just a couple weeks after a different journalist, Imran Riaz Khan, was freed on bail and then immediately rearrested on seperate terrorism charges. CPJ has condemned the treatment of both men.

“Authorities must cease using the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act and other draconian laws to persecute journalists and silence critical reporting and commentary,” said Beh Lih Yi, Asia program coordinator at CPJ, in a statement.

Analysts say that the victimization of journalists like Mr. Toor shows the press the consequences of stepping out of line.

Mr. Toor “did what we call speaking truth to power,” says digital rights campaigner Usama Khilji. “All institutions including the military, judiciary, and our political and civilian institutions, he would hold them accountable without discrimination. I think that seems to have gotten him on the wrong side of the powers that be.”
India
India calls China defence ministry’s claims over Arunachal Pradesh state ‘absurd’ (Reuters)
Reuters [3/19/2024 4:30 AM, Krishn Kaushik and Shivam Patel, 5.2M, Neutral]
India’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday the Chinese defence ministry was advancing "absurd claims" over the territory of India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh which it said will always be an "integral and inalienable part of India".

China claims Arunachal Pradesh to be a part of southern Tibet. New Delhi rejects the claim, saying Arunachal Pradesh has always been a part of India.
Anti-Modi Alliance in India Is Faltering as Election Nears (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [3/18/2024 11:22 PM, Swati Gupta, 5543K, Neutral]
Rahul Gandhi, the face of India’s political opposition, concluded a 65-day trek across the breadth of India Sunday, a day after the country’s electoral body announced the dates for the six-week long national elections starting April 19.

Gandhi, a scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, and one of the top leaders of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, has been traveling across 15 states by bus and an open-roofed SUV from the north-eastern state of Manipur to the financial capital Mumbai, holding small gatherings where he’s often addressed crowds from his car.

At the rally in Mumbai on Sunday, Gandhi launched a blistering attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party, accusing it of widespread corruption.

Referencing the everyday corruption experienced by many Indian citizens, Gandhi accused the BJP of doing so at “a national level.” Gandhi was alluding to recent revelations regarding corporate political donations, much of which had until recently been opaque and anonymous. The BJP was the biggest recipient of the donations.

India’s finance minister last week defended the electoral bonds, saying cash received under the system was “legitimate.”

Gandhi also lambasted the government — as he has for months — for failing to tackle unemployment, crony capitalism and the lack of representation of social and backward classes in India.

It’s unclear if these Congress attacks will resonate with voters any better than they have in the last two national elections, which the BJP won in a landslide. During state elections last year, the party attempted to deny Modi a unified Hindu vote by playing up the disadvantages faced by lower caste Hindus. The Congress lost three key states it was widely expected to win.

Even as the party gears up for elections scheduled to start in just four weeks, it and the more than 20 opposition parties that have aligned together to challenge Modi, seem to be on the back foot as they appear unable to pose a credible threat to Modi’s BJP.

The I.N.D.I.A. alliance — as it is dubbed — was created last year with much fanfare in the hopes of uniting the country’s disparate opposition parties. The biggest party in the alliance — the Congress party — is cash-strapped, key members of the grouping have defected to the BJP and the opposition alleges that government agencies have targeted its leaders with investigations and arrests. The Congress’ loss in those three key state elections meanwhile seems to have deflated the alliance, while bringing into question the party’s ability to lead the smaller, regional parties.

At the heart of the alliance’s troubles appears to be the absence of a clear vision that presents the Indian electorate with an alternative to the BJP, according to members of the alliance and analysts.

“When you build an opposition alliance, you start with a political arrangement, political agreements, seat-sharing,” Gilles Verniers, a senior fellow at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, said by phone. “But you also have to define a common plan or build a coherent opposition narrative that you can present to voters.”

Modi seems acutely aware of this — and has been hammering the point home at campaign events. “The Congress party has no agenda for the country’s future besides abusing Modi,” he said to the crowd at a campaign event in his home state Gujarat.

Analyst Rasheed Kidwai believes the opposition, starting with the Congress party, need to break out of that cycle.

“I think the Congress should get into a very solid campaign because this negative campaign has limitations and they should go to a positive agenda,” said Kidwai, author of 24 Akbar Road, a history of the Congress party.

Another issue, say analysts, is that the Congress is yet to campaign aggressively alongside other alliance members, or figure out a way of pooling resources. Case in point is Gandhi’s multi-state journey, where he has been campaigning largely on his own — though the event in Mumbai did feature many other key alliance leaders.

Kidwai suggests the parties work jointly, though the time to do so now is limited. The Election Commission announced Saturday that voting for the first phase of the elections will begin on April 19 with votes counted on June 4.

Discussions on alliance-building and the division of seats between the various parties has dragged on for months, amid lingering mistrust between the Congress and the regional parties. Some sporadic announcements are only now starting to trickle in.

The gelling of an “alliance and constituencies is not as easy” as it might appear from the outside, said Priyanka Chaturvedi, a member of India’s upper house of parliament with a regional party from the western state of Maharashtra. Her party, the Shiv Sena (UBT), is a member of the alliance. Chaturvedi said the alliance has “moved leaps and bounds in establishing that faith, establishing the nuances and as well as seat allocation.”

The Congress party declined to comment.

Meanwhile, the alliance’s struggles have been compounded by the loss of key politicians to the BJP. Dozens of leaders from national and regional parties have switched sides over the past few years, and in recent days and weeks. Many have jumped on the winning Modi bandwagon. In January, one of the architects of the alliance defected back to Modi’s BJP.
Investigation Agencies

Verniers describes it as the BJP’s “open-door policy” where they try to “cannibalize other parties by engineering defections.” The BJP has even managed to split parties at the regional level — attracting not just top leaders but a large number of legislators as well.

The opposition alleges

some of the defections have taken place under pressure from the countries’ investigative agencies. Numerous opposition politicians have been arrested or are under investigation by the federal anti-money laundering agency, the Directorate of Enforcement.

The chief minister of India’s capital, who is under investigation by the agency, in a recent statement, accused the BJP of targeting state and national lawmakers. “One by one, they (BJP) are putting opposition leaders in prison. There will be no one left to fight in the elections,” said Arvind Kejriwal. “BJP does not win elections, they steal them.”

Over the decade the BJP has been in power, the number of registered cases by the federal agencies have risen as conviction rates have plummeted, according to statistics released by the government. Meanwhile, 95% of cases filed against politicians for graft and money laundering target opposition politicians, according to a report by an Indian media house.

The investigative agencies are doing their job exactly as expected, Nalin Kohli, a BJP spokesman, said by phone. The only reason the opposition is “trying to build a political narrative on this is that they lack a cohesive or credible counter narrative to the leadership of PM Modi and the performance of his government in the past one decade,” he added.

The BJP has previously denied targeting opposition leaders for political gain and said the government pursues all allegations of impropriety.

As damaging as such tactics might be to the opposition it’s possible that voters will see through them.

“All these things have a potential to boomerang,” said Kidwai, referring to the vendetta politics.

Modi and his party, meanwhile, are increasingly bullish about sweeping the elections. Modi has been campaigning vigorously, and has promised projects worth billions of dollars over the last two months. Government schemes and projects are regularly marketed under his name, and are often festooned with Modi’s visage. India has the the fastest-growing major economy in the world, helped in part by enormous geopolitical tailwinds, which has investors — and by some measures, voters — excited. Last month, Modi inaugurated a controversial temple in a town in northern India — an event broadcast across the nation — fulfilling one of his party’s key promises.

The party’s coffers are the deepest; the recent electoral bonds revelations show that the BJP has received almost half of all donations. In contrast, the Congress got about 11% of the funds. The Congress also says it is cash-strapped after the the federal Income Tax agency froze some of its funds for past delays in filing its returns.

Even as the opposition alliance appears to be struggling, and is competing against the most popular politician in recent Indian history — Modi’s approval ratings are near 80% — Kidwai notes its too early to write the election off, or to discount the Indian electorate.

“I’m saying the election is not settled. Advantage, BJP? Yes!” said Kidwai. “Conventional wisdom is saying Modi is coming, but an Indian voter is unpredictable.”
India opposition fights for relevance versus Modi election juggernaut (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [3/18/2024 5:00 PM, Kiran Sharma, 293K, Neutral]
In the final days of his 6,700-kilometer "Unite India Justice" march this month, Rahul Gandhi waved from the back of a fire-engine red jeep as it weaved through a crowd in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat.

Gandhi, scion of the opposition Indian National Congress party, spoke about the vast gulf between India’s rich and poor. "The amount of money that [700 million] people have in their bank accounts, that same amount is there in 22 [wealthy] people’s bank accounts," he said in Hindi, repeating a frequent critique of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s stewardship. "Do you understand this? Even this jeep can accommodate 22 people."

But as India prepares for the world’s largest election, from April 19 to early June according to the schedule announced on Saturday, many experts believe Gandhi and the Congress party are fighting a losing battle. His nationwide trek has arguably failed to "unite" the opposition, let alone the country of 1.4 billion. A fledgling coalition of Congress and nearly two dozen opposition parties known as the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, is struggling to overcome disagreements and defections on top of legal difficulties and a huge funding disadvantage.

Skeptics see Gandhi’s march for "economic, social and political justice," which ended in Mumbai on Sunday, as a last-ditch effort to revive the flagging fortunes of a party that once ruled post-independence politics. "Probably the only benefit Congress had with this march of Gandhi [was] that they kept themselves in media headlines, otherwise they would have been even more irrelevant," Sanjeev K. Sharma, general secretary of the Indian Political Science Association (IPSA), told Nikkei Asia.

He said Modi’s BJP "has a psychological upper hand."

Other analysts feel it is unfair to write off Congress and Gandhi. The grandson of the late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has been spending his days connecting with voters from a cross-section of India’s diverse society. "How many top ruling party politicians do you see taking out long marches and meeting people and listening to the common man’s problems?" asked Duru Arun Kumar, a senior professor of sociology at the Indian Institute of Technology Jammu.

Few would deny that the opposition faces a tough road.

Poll after poll projects that the Hindu nationalist BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners will win the election. The only question seems to be by what margin.

A party or coalition needs a simple majority -- 272 of 543 lower house seats for which elections are held -- to form a government. In the last two elections, in 2014 and 2019, the BJP easily cleared that threshold, after no single party had done so in three decades. Last time around, the BJP secured its highest-ever seat total, 303, while Congress placed a distant second at 52.

That, at least, was a slight improvement over Congress’ worst showing, when it won 44 in 2014.

These days, Modi has been repeating an even loftier goal for the NDA’s seat count: "This time, above 400," he says at rallies. He has also said he "hears" the BJP alone will cross 370 seats.

He has plenty of reasons to be confident.

The BJP has much fatter coffers, thanks in part to an electoral bonds program launched in 2018. The interest-free instruments allowed citizens and companies to make anonymous donations to political parties, at least until the Supreme Court last month struck down the program.

The BJP declared 65.66 billion rupees ($791 million) worth of the bonds between the financial year through March 2018 and last fiscal year, according to the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), a petitioner in the case. Congress took in only 11.23 billion rupees during the same period.

India’s economic performance has blown an extra gust into the BJP’s sails. Gross domestic product surged 8.4% in the October-December quarter, far more than expected.

"It’s a foregone conclusion" that the BJP will return to power for a third straight term, predicted Ullekh N.P., author of the book "War Room: The People, Tactics and Technology Behind Narendra Modi’s 2014 Win." He told Nikkei Asia that the writing has been on the wall since Congress lost three crucial elections in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan late last year.

The dismal performance undermined Congress’ clout within the INDIA bloc, formed last July with the goal of toppling Modi. "Congress was hoping if they won these states, they would have had a greater say and bargaining capacity to seek more seats in the INDIA alliance, but the moment the party lost those polls, it almost withered away," the writer said.

Lately, INDIA has appeared to be coming apart at the seams, unable to agree on unified candidates in key states.

One of INDIA’s most prominent leaders, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, on March 10 released a list of candidates for her state, which accounts for 42 lower house seats. It featured only hopefuls from her Trinamool Congress (TMC) party.

Congress party leader Adhir Chowdhury complained, "Mamata Banerjee is scared that if she continues with the INDIA alliance ... Mr. Modi will send [the Enforcement Directorate] and [Central Bureau of Investigation] to the TMC’s doors."

Investigators have been pursuing corruption allegations against several key players, carrying out raids, asset seizures and arrests. The opposition claims this is a pressure campaign.

Others appear to have soured on the alliance, too. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) declared its intention to go solo in Punjab -- a northern state it currently governs -- even though it agreed to seat-sharing in some other states. Janata Dal (United) party leader Nitish Kumar, chief minister of the state of Bihar and an instrumental figure in forming the INDIA bloc, rejoined the BJP-led coalition he had left in August 2022.

"It looks increasingly difficult for the opposition to be able to mount any significant challenge" at the national level, though there are local parties which could do well in their states, such as the TMC in West Bengal, said Rahul Verma, a fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research.

For its part, Congress insists it is set to surprise. "For decades now, opinion polls have always predicted results against the Congress," Gaurav Pandhi, All India Congress Committee coordinator at the office of the party’s president, told Nikkei Asia. "It’s safe to say that all such opinion polls are more or less designed to create a sentiment which is favorable for the BJP."

Pandhi said that Gandhi’s march attracted hundreds of thousands of people daily for more than two months. "This itself is the display of the kind of support we are receiving. ... We are fully prepared and confident that along with our alliance partners we are going to win the upcoming elections and form the next pro-people government."

Nevertheless, the IPSA’s Sharma said that "it will be a big challenge for Congress to save the 52 seats it won in the last general election." While Congress’ 19.7% share of all valid votes in 2019 was "not so bad," he said that "the problem is it does not have a strategy to convert that ... into electoral success, and it also does not have a vision and leadership."

Gandhi, who stepped down as Congress’ president to take responsibility for the 2019 loss but remains a key face of the party, has tried to fill that leadership role. But Sharma questioned his decision to take a second cross-country tour, after making a similar 3,500-km journey about a year ago. Had Gandhi focused on rallying the disparate opposition parties to set aside old rivalries, "the INDIA alliance probably would not have fallen into this much chaos," he suggested.

Seeking to overcome his elite image and claim the man-of-the-people mantle, Gandhi routinely accuses the BJP of failing to create enough jobs while doing the bidding of billionaires. His party has pledged, if elected, to ensure every graduate and diploma holder secures their first job.

Gandhi has also seized on the issue of electoral bonds. "Narendra Modi’s ‘donation business’ is about to be exposed!" he tweeted in Hindi last week. "Electoral bonds is going to prove to be the biggest scam in Indian history ... exposing the nexus of corrupt industrialists and the government."

The Election Commission late last week released hundreds of pages of data on its website, revealing the names of various companies but not the parties to which they donated. Analysts were skeptical that any of this would sway the BJP’s voter base.

The ruling party can drown out criticism by trumpeting the promises it has kept. In 2019, it scrapped the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir and now boasts that it has unified India and brought development to the region. This year, Modi inaugurated the expansive Lord Ram temple in Ayodhya on what was once a flashpoint of Hindu-Muslim conflict. And the government recently moved to implement a citizenship law that grants nationality to Hindus and people of certain other faiths who fled neighboring countries, despite criticism of an anti-Muslim bias.

Many voters say the BJP has delivered. "We support only Modi," said Shiv Shankar Tripathi, 58, from the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. He said lawlessness prevailed in his state before the BJP in 2017 dislodged the regional Samajwadi Party, which is part of the INDIA bloc. "Now residents feel safe, there is electricity almost round-the-clock, and roads of our state have become better than even those in the national capital."

While INDIA struggles to stick together, the author Ullekh said the BJP has been stitching up regional alliances and plucking politicians from the ranks of other parties.

"They have the money, they have the resources, they are in power," he said. "Most importantly, unlike all political entities we have had throughout the free India history, this party is on an election mode all the time."

Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, a close aide, are "more focused on winning elections than governance," Ullekh contended. "In fact, these people are framing policies with an eye on voters."

The anemic opposition worries some who see a need for balance. Kumar at the Indian Institute of Technology said that "while it may be true that the lotus is blooming in most parts of the country" -- a reference to the BJP’s flower symbol -- "for a vibrant democracy, it is essential that there is a healthy opposition in place."
Why India’s Next Election Will Last 44 Days (Time)
Time [3/18/2024 1:59 PM, Astha Rajvanshi, 1386K, Neutral]
India, the world’s most populous democracy, is set to hold its next general election over a seven-phase period that will last 44 days. On March 16, the Indian Election Commission announced that Indians will head to the polls between April 19 and June 1, with the results declared June 4.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term in power after his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP, won a staggering 303 seats in the 2019 election. Recent findings from the “Mood of the Nation Poll” by India Today suggest that voters continue to see Modi as a popular leader (though such polls often have a mixed record for accuracy). To take on the BJP, India’s main opposition Congress party has formed a coalition bloc with more than two dozen other opposition parties called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA.

India’s elections are the largest democratic exercise in the world, with nearly 970 million registered voters—of which 470 million are women—turning out to cast a ballot. This year, 18 million first-time voters will also be eligible to cast a vote.

The voter turnout in India’s elections is historically high—the last election held in 2019 drew a 67% turnout, according to the Election Commission, or ECI. (In comparison, the U.S. saw a 66% voter turnout in the 2022 presidential election.) India is also known for having the world’s most expensive election, with political parties spending more than $7 billion in 2019, compared to $6.5 billion spent in the U.S. during the 2016 election. That number is only expected to double in this year’s elections.

Under the country’s parliamentary system, the party that wins the majority of the 543 seats in the more powerful Lok Sabha, or the lower house of Parliament, forms a government and appoints its candidate as prime minister.

What is the schedule for the Indian election?

India holds its elections in sequential phases by regions carefully staggered by the ECI. The dates of polling announced by ECI across the seven phases will be April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25, and June 1. In some states like Bihar, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh, voting will take place on all seven days; in others, like Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, it will only take place on one day.

This election will be the second longest polling exercise in India’s electoral history, after the country’s first-ever election, which was held over a five-month period between September 1951 and February 1952.

Electoral rules also mandate that a polling station must be within 1.2 miles of every home, and nearly every vote is cast electronically. In 2019, 1.74 million electronic voting machines were used across more than 1 million polling stations. Nearly 15 million polling officials and security personnel will be tasked with manning polling stations during balloting. To reach every voter, they travel to all parts of the country, including by trekking through glaciers in the Himalayas or wading through deep forested valleys in remote states like Arunachal Pradesh.
Why does India’s election take so long?

The regional phases of India’s elections are determined based on how populated—as well as how contentious—the vote might be in each state. For example, the most densely populated state of Uttar Pradesh, which is also notorious for political intimidation and electoral influence, is broken up into seven phases.

The roving group of electoral and security personnel typically need time to get from one part of the country to another, especially in remote regions, to publicize and administer the vote, as well as protect the ballot boxes from getting stuffed or stolen. Sometimes, the ECI takes public holidays and religious festivals into account when extending the polling period.

All of the votes are then counted and announced on a single day, which means that no one—including the Prime Minister—knows who won any given seat until the results are announced.

Since India’s independence in 1947, the Indian Election Commission has determined that these elaborate structures allow for the slow and steady pace necessary to oversee free and fair elections in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people. But internal rifts, as well as criticism from opposition parties about insufficient action taken over the violation of rules, has seen the official electoral watchdog lose its storied reputation in recent years.

The election is coming at a time when India is grappling with the challenge of ensuring voter participation, free speech, and electoral independence while authoritarianism is on the rise. During Modi’s second term, Freedom House downgraded India’s democracy rating from “free” to “partly free” because of the government’s discriminatory policies against Muslims, as well as its targeting of critics and the media.
‘I Feel Like An Alien’: Afghan Muslims Decry India’s New Citizenship Law (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [3/18/2024 11:10 AM, Faiza Ibrahimi, Sana Kakar, and Abubakar Siddique, 223K, Negative]
Osman Ali was just a few weeks old when his family fled Afghanistan’s devastating civil war and moved to India in the early 1990s.

Today, few members of his family of eight remember their homeland. Ali and his five siblings all grew up in India and do not speak any Afghan languages.

But the 30-year-old, like many other Afghans in India, is only on a temporary visa and ineligible to work or receive government help.

When Indian lawmakers moved to amend the citizenship law for migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, many Afghans were hopeful of gaining a fast track to naturalization.

But the new rules implemented by New Delhi on March 11 exclude Muslims, who are the majority in all three countries. Only members of non-Muslim minorities, including Hindus, Sikhs, and Buddhists, who moved to India before December 31, 2014, can apply for citizenship.

The move is a major blow to many of the thousands of Afghan Muslims in India, a Hindu-majority country of some 1.4 billion people.

"I feel like an alien staying in my own country and not enjoying any of the rights that all citizens in India enjoy," Ali told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. "It is a dark day for secularism in India."

The Citizenship Amendment Act has sparked protests in India and attracted widespread criticism. Human rights groups said the legislation discriminates against Muslims and undermines the South Asian country’s secular constitution.

‘Bad Development’

Farhad, an Afghan migrant, has lived in India for the past 15 years. Each year, he must renew his visa. He is not permitted to travel abroad. Even traveling within India is difficult, he said.

Farhad, a Muslim, had hoped the Indian government would provide a fast track to citizenship for Afghans who had fled their homeland due to war and poverty.

"This is a bad development," Farhad told Radio Azadi, referring to the new citizenship law. "We have tried very hard, but we have been denied citizenship [for years]."

Without Indian citizenship, many Afghans cannot open a bank account or work legally, condemning them to a life of poverty, said Farhad, who only revealed his first name.

"The government needs to pay attention to the numerous problems we face," he said.

India has been a close ally of Afghanistan for decades. New Delhi has granted asylum to tens of thousands of Afghans since the civil war of the 1990s, including Muslims as well as members of Afghanistan’s small Hindu and Sikh communities.

But New Delhi is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees or the related 1967 protocol intended to eliminate restrictions on who can be considered a refugee.

The result has been that thousands of Afghan migrants and refugees have lived in India in limbo for years, with no livelihood or security.

The exact number of Afghans in India is unknown. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said in 2022 that people from Afghanistan and Myanmar comprised most of the 46,000 registered refugees in India. Several thousand more undocumented Afghans are also believed to live in India.

"Most of us have no money to pay rent and other expenses," said Mohammad Qais Malakzada, the head of the Afghan Solidarity Committee, an NGO based in New Delhi that provides help to the estimated 7,000 Afghans living in the Indian capital.

Boon For Hindus, Sikhs

The new citizenship law does not just affect Muslim migrants.

The legislation marks the first time that India -- officially a secular state that is home to over a dozen religious groups -- has established religious criteria for citizenship.

Rights groups said the amended law is the latest attempt by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government to further marginalize the 200-million-strong Muslim minority in India.

"The Citizenship Amendment Act is a bigoted law that legitimizes discrimination on the basis of religion," said Aakar Patel, chairman of the board at Amnesty International India, on March 14.

Despite widespread criticism, the new law is a significant boon for members of Afghanistan’s Hindu and Sikh minorities.

Sikhs and Hindus together numbered around 100,000 several decades ago, but the outbreak of war and the onset of growing persecution pushed many out.

Many of those who remained fled Afghanistan after a string of deadly militant attacks in 2018 and 2020.

"This law will solve all of our problems," Partab Singh, an Afghan Sikh who arrived in New Delhi in 1992, told Radio Azadi.

Diya Singh Anjan is another Afghan Sikh who has lived in the Indian capital for decades.

"If we go to any government office now, we will receive the same treatment and privileges given to a citizen," he said.
India Buying More US Oil as Sanctions Stifle Russian Flows (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [3/19/2024 3:05 AM, Sharon Cho and Rakesh Sharma, 5.5M, Neutral]
Indian oil refiners are on track to take the most American crude in almost a year after tighter enforcement of US sanctions crimped trade with Russia and forced processors to look elsewhere for supply.

State-owned Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Indian Oil Corp., along with top private refiner Reliance Industries Ltd., have purchased about 7 million barrels of April-loading US crude so far this month, said traders who asked not to be identified. That would be the largest monthly volume since May, according to Kpler.

Russian crude flows to India surged after the invasion of Ukraine and the OPEC+ producer is still the biggest supplier to the South Asian nation, but tighter US sanctions have stranded cargoes and discounts have narrowed. India has also ramped up purchases recently from Saudi Arabia.

Bharat Petroleum, Indian Oil and Reliance Industries didn’t immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

Most of the US crude purchased this month has been West Texas Intermediate Midland, and the delivered cost is more expensive than barrels from the Middle East, according to traders. Russia’s Sokol oil — which is comparable to WTI Midland — has been the most affected by the disruptions.

WTI Midland can produce more gasoline and diesel — fuels that are expected to see higher consumption in coming months due to the movement of people for local elections, rising power generation and crop harvesting, said Indian refinery officials who couldn’t be named because of company policy.

“Given the issues faced with importing Sokol, it’s no surprise that Indian refineries are turning toward US WTI Midland as their light-sweet alternative,” said Dylan Sim, an analyst at industry consultant FGE. US crude accounted for 10% of India’s imports in 2021 but slipped to as low as 4% over the last two years as Russia expanded its market share, according to Sim.

Other Russian crude varieties including Urals from the nation’s western ports have also been impacted by the tighter enforcement of sanctions. Two tankers carrying the grade have been idling off the Indian coast for weeks now.

India’s imports of Russian crude last month were at around 40 million barrels — or almost 30% of the country’s overall oil and condensate purchases, according to Kpler data compiled by Bloomberg. Over the course of 2023, Russia’s share of the Indian market accounted for 39% on average.
India Suffering a Quiet Decline in Foreign Direct Investment (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [3/18/2024 6:03 AM, Mohamed Zeeshan, 201K, Neutral]
This month, India signed a rare free trade agreement with four countries in Europe that make up the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Coming after 16 painful years of negotiations, the deal will see India lift most import tariffs for industrial products from Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. In return, the EFTA countries will invest $100 billion in India over the next 15 years.

The announcement comes on the back of flagging foreign direct investment (FDI) into India in recent years. Between April and September of last year, India pulled in just a little over $10 billion in FDI — the lowest tally for the first half of a financial year since the 2008 global recession, according to data from India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). That comes on the back of an overall decline in FDI inflows as a percentage of GDP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

There are several well-recorded factors for why foreign investment into India has been so tepid in recent years: bureaucratic red tape, a poor record in contract enforcement, and relatively low labor productivity. But an even more significant factor is simply that India hasn’t been signing enough deals to facilitate foreign investment.

In the mid-1990s, amid the push to liberalize its economy, India initiated a series of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) to promote investment from companies abroad. The idea was to codify a set of rules and norms to ensure that the concerns and interests of foreign investors are protected, especially through international arbitration.

The result was a barrage of claims and disputes by foreign businesses operating in India. In 2011, White Industries, an Australian foundry business, took India to international arbitration for breaching its obligations under the India-Australia bilateral investment treaty. The litigation was successful and India was ordered to pay White Industries over $4 million. That was followed by another successful arbitration effort by the British oil company, Cairn Energy, which secured a $1.2 billion award against the Indian government on a 2015 tax complaint.

In 2016, the Modi government decided to revisit India’s bilateral investment treaties. It introduced a new model treaty which, among other things, made it harder for foreign investors to take recourse to international arbitration. Then, New Delhi terminated as many as 76 of its 83 investment treaties with a plea to renegotiate them on the basis of the new model treaty. The result was almost immediate: Since 2016, net FDI inflows have fallen as a percentage of GDP from about 1.7 percent to a little over 0.5 percent, according to the RBI.

This has run in parallel with heightened trade protectionism. According to the Global Trade Alert database which tracks trade policy interventions worldwide, India has imposed the highest number of import restrictions of any country since 2014 — a sharp increase compared to the period between 2009 and 2014 when India was fourth on the list.

A similar suspicion of treaties and agreements has hamstrung India’s trade profile as well. Between 2017 and 2022, India’s imports from partners with whom it has signed free trade agreements increased by a striking 82 percent.

Meanwhile, exports to those countries only increased by 31 percent. India has consequently sat out of major trade blocs in the Indo-Pacific — most notably walking out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) talks in 2019. Last year, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal disparaged its trade deal with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as “ill-conceived.”

There are some slight signs that Modi now wants to rectify this — if only very cautiously. In the lead-up to this month’s deal with the EFTA, India had also signed trade deals with Australia and the United Arab Emirates. New Delhi now hopes to finalize another deal with the UK.

Yet, even in those trade negotiations, India has been relatively less liberal than in the era predating Modi — angling for more state control over sundry policy issues and seeking to limit the exposure of many of its sectors to foreign competition. If India wants to attract foreign investment, it might have to change tack.
NSB
Death tolls mount as elephants and people compete for land in Sri Lanka (The Guardian)
The Guardian [3/19/2024 1:00 AM, Thaslima Begum, 12.5M, Negative]
Setting out from home to collect firewood on a cool spring morning last year, Harshini Wanninayake and her mother had no idea only one of them would come back alive. The pair were walking to a nearby forest from Eriyawa, a village in north-west Sri Lanka, when they heard a loud rustling close by.

“It came out of nowhere,” says Wanninayake. “The elephant was behind the thicket and took us completely by surprise.”

The elephant lunged towards Wanninayake’s elderly mother, who tried to scramble out of the way but was knocked over. “It ran off, trampling her in the process,” says Wanninayake, who ran screaming to get help. When she returned with her brothers, it was too late – their mother was already dead and the elephant was gone.

“We found her still body on the ground, battered and bruised. All her bones were broken,” says Wanninayake, who is still shaken by the attack.

In Sri Lanka, the delicate balance of human-elephant coexistence is facing unprecedented threats. Last year, 176 people died in elephant encounters on the island, and 470 elephants were killed – more than double the number of elephant deaths in 2010.

The rising death toll over the past four years has made Sri Lanka the worst country for human-elephant conflict in the world.

Habitat loss, deforestation, competition for land and shrinking resources have fuelled tensions. In 1997, Sri Lanka’s forests were estimated by the UN to cover nearly 20,000 sq km (7,000 sq miles), or 30% of its total land area; by 2022, it had lost 2,100 sq km of tree cover.

In January, scientists published new research concluding that human-elephant clashes would intensify as the climate crisis worsened.

“We can see the impact of climate change all around us,” says Dr Prithiviraj Fernando, chair of Sri Lanka’s Centre for Conservation and Research, who has studied elephants for more than 30 years.

“Fertile land for food production is dwindling. With rivers drying up and rainfall patterns becoming more erratic, water has also become a contentious issue,” he says.

As more elephant habitats are cleared for cultivation, the animals are forced to trek through human settlements to access food and water. Often, they are attracted to the crops and grain stored in the homesteads they encounter.

Late one night in Nakolagane, about two miles from Eriyawa, Kayakodi Thegis heard a disturbance in his back garden. The 70-year-old went outside with his torch to investigate, and looked up to find an elephant towering above him.

“He was flung across the vegetable patch and trampled,” says Ajith Thushara, the victim’s nephew, who witnessed the attack. “We found his crushed body by the back door.”

The elephant had been raiding the garden’s jackfruit when Thegis unwittingly shone the torch in its direction. Flashing lights are increasingly seen as a hostile threat by elephants, says Fernando.

“When elephants come to raid fields, farmers typically flash torches to sight the elephant and then confront it, throwing stones and firecrackers or shooting at it. Elephants now negatively associate the shining of a torch and respond with aggression.”

Raiding gardens and fields of crops has become increasingly common in the area, as a result of forest land being cleared illegally. Recently, thousands of hectares of forest were illegally cleared in Nakolagane, with the areas leased for construction projects or growing commercial crops. This obstructs crucial elephant corridors.

To protect their crops and keep marauding elephants at bay, some frightened farmers have taken to creating deadly homemade elephant traps. In Hambantota, on the south-east coast, a man recently connected his household electricity supply to a fence encroaching on a recognised elephant corridor, killing four elephants in one day. He was let off with a small fine.

Killing an elephant in Sri Lanka is punishable by imprisonment but typically a more lenient sentence or fine is handed down. But illegal measures to ward off the animals have been increasing, and becoming increasingly violent. Recent incidents include elephants being shot, poisoned or killed with “jaw bombs” – explosives hidden in food as bait that explode inside the elephant’s mouth.

“Such activities are inhumane and can never be the solution,” says Fernando. “Even economically, it makes no sense: elephants are the star attraction of our tourism industry, bringing in much needed foreign exchange. We need them more than they need us.”

Last year, the hotel Uga Ulagalla collaborated with Fernando to open the country’s first elephant research centre. Located in Anuradhapura, in northern Sri Lanka, experts have been working with the community to help conserve the local elephant population.

Together, they are tracking elephants, looking at how and where they congregate, their seasonal movements and feeding grounds.

Community fences, constructed and maintained by local people, prevent elephants from entering their land. The fences are powered by a battery, rather than mains electricity, to give a mild shock that scares elephants away harmlessly.

“The key to maintaining successful conservation practices is garnering buy-in from local people,” says Fernando. “We must learn to live together peacefully.

“If things continue as they are, up to 70% of Sri Lanka’s elephants will be lost. Human-elephant coexistence is the only way forward.”
Central Asia
US Looks to Draw Central Asia Into Critical Minerals Supply Chains (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [3/18/2024 8:01 AM, Fazliddin Djamalov, 201K, Positive]
On February 8, 2024, the U.S. Department of State hosted the inaugural meeting of the Critical Minerals Dialogue (CMD) in the C5+1 format, chaired by Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Jose W. Fernandez.

The initiative to hold a dialogue on critical minerals was announced by the presidents of the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the C5+1 Summit, which took place in New York in September 2023. The main objective of the CMD is to expand Central Asia’s participation in global supply chains of critical minerals, strengthen economic cooperation, promote a transition to clean energy, and protect the unique ecosystems of the region.

The United States commended the contributions of the five Central Asian countries in advancing new partnership opportunities and investment prospects, as well as their efforts to continue the dialogue through national coordinators within the framework of the C5+1. According to the press release, the prospects for cooperation were discussed within the context of the CMD, including the initiatives of the “Partnership for Mineral Resource Security” and “Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.” The Central Asian representatives expressed their interest in attracting American investments in the development of critical minerals. However, experts from the Caspian Policy Center note that financing these initiatives on the scale of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may pose challenges.

Countering China’s Dominance: Potential Threats to U.S. National Security

CMD is part of a broader U.S. strategy to counter China’s dominance in the supply chains of critical minerals. Essential minerals such as nickel, cobalt, palladium, and rare earth elements (REEs) are crucial for high-tech industries and defense systems. Critical minerals are also necessary for the transition to “green” technologies, as minerals like lithium, manganese, and chromium are vital components of renewable energy technologies.

As tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals increasingly becomes a strategic vulnerability. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, China currently controls nearly 60 percent of rare earth mining operations, over 85 percent of processing capabilities, and more than 90 percent of permanent magnet production, posing a potential threat to U.S. national security. In December 2023, Beijing had announced restrictions on the export of certain critical minerals, as well as mining and processing technologies. This export control raised concerns that China might use mineral resources as leverage in diplomatic discussions on security and the economy.

On February 14, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm emphasized that she is “very concerned” about China’s control over the supply chain of critical mineral resources. The secretary stated that the United States will “collaborate with friends” to meet the growing demand for critical minerals.

In December 2023, the International Tax and Investment Center, a non-profit organization based in Washington, released a report titled “Leveraging Central Asia’s Rare Earth Elements for Economic Growth,” which analyzes the abundance of REEs in the region. Specifically, Central Asian countries hold 38.6 percent of global manganese ore reserves, 31 percent of chromium, 20 percent of lead, 12.6 percent of zinc, 8.7 percent of titanium, and significant reserves of other materials. China already has significant influence in the mining sectors of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan appear to be more open to Western public and private investment in this sector.

Central Asia’s Abundance of Critical Minerals and Investment Opportunities

From 2012 to 2018, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducted an inventory of mineral deposits throughout Central Asia. During that period, 384 occurrences of rare minerals were identified, including 160 in Kazakhstan, 87 in Uzbekistan, 75 in Kyrgyzstan, 60 in Tajikistan, and two in Turkmenistan. Currently, as part of a joint project between the State Committee of Geology of Uzbekistan and the USGS, a study of the country’s mineral resource reserves is being carried out, with a total funding of $2.3 million from the United States.

Special attention in the report is given to Kazakhstan, which possesses the largest reserves of known REEs in the region. Kazakhstan also holds the world’s largest reserves of chromium and the second-largest reserves of uranium, and it maintains strong positions in many other mining sectors. For instance, in 2020, Kazakhstan earned more revenue from copper exports than from natural gas exports for the first time.

In his address to the nation in September 2023, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated that the development of REE deposits should become a priority task, referring to these metals as the “new oil.” U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosenblum has said he is confident that projects for the extraction and processing of the critical materials involving American companies will soon emerge in the country.

The preservation of reliable access to these materials has become an integral part of the economic and national security of Western European countries. For example, Tokayev discussed the extraction of critical minerals with French President Emmanuel Macron during his visit to Kazakhstan in November 2023. Additionally, in June 2023, the U.S. Department of State held a similar dialogue with Mongolia, and in December 2023, France initiated an inaugural strategic dialogue on critical minerals with Australia.

Diversification Transportation Routes and Energy Security in Central Asia

Regional integration projects aimed at reducing dependence on Russia will remain in the focus of the West, as these projects can also enhance Europe’s energy security through diversification of supply routes. Transportation routes bypassing Russia and China are a necessary condition for Western investments, and the development of the Middle Corridor will be crucial for transporting essential minerals from Central Asian countries to global markets.

In 2023, Kazakhstan purchased two oil tankers to transport its oil to Europe through the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia. However, this accounts for only 2 percent of Kazakhstan’s exports, and it is expected that Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian energy infrastructure for oil exports will remain high in the medium term. Nonetheless, this underscores Kazakhstan’s own geopolitical and economic interests in seeking new alliances and trade relations beyond its relationship with the Kremlin.

A report by the Caspian Policy Center in 2022 recommended that the U.S. Geological Survey expand its work with Central Asian countries to help them harness their resource potential. Utilizing their experience in attracting private investments and facilitating cooperation between U.S. firms and Central Asia, the report emphasizes the necessity for the Central Asian mineral development to mobilize private financing. It is expected that in the medium term, the United States will include technology transfer and technical assistance alongside funding for the development of critical mineral deposits. However, currently, the United States has not allocated funds to CMD or promised any investments.

In conclusion, the dialogue on critical minerals indicates the U.S. interest in enhancing the role of Central Asia in global supply chains for essential mineral resources. This initiative can serve as a catalyst for public-private partnerships that develop the mineral resource base of Central Asia and, thus, reduce U.S. dependence on China in technology manufacturing. The competition to gain control over critical mineral supply chains, which are essential for future industries, is intensifying. The outcome of this race in Central Asia’s nations, abundant in valuable resources, has the potential to shape the global balance of economic and technological power for many years ahead.
Central Asian states giving early thumbs-up to US-facilitated integration plan (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [3/18/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Positive]
A US-led effort to help Central Asian states reshape the region’s business landscape is achieving some of its initial objectives, putting the initiative on a more solid foundation for potential success. Key Central Asian governments are reacting favorably to the plan.

Heading into the inaugural meeting of what is called the B5+1 process, a primary aim was to institutionalize an annual gathering bringing together private and public sector leaders from all five Central Asian states for discussions aimed at breaking down trade barriers that hinder outside investment and promoting a regional market. That goal has been achieved. Regional governmental interest in developing the B5+1 appears strong: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are already reportedly jockeying to host the forum next year.

In addition, the Kazakh government appears supportive of the initiative. In closing remarks made at the initial B5+1 forum, held in Almaty from March 13-15, Kazakh First Deputy Minister of National Economy Timur Zhaksylykov expressed the government’s readiness to explore ways with the private sector to improve trade prospects in such sectors as agribusiness and e-commerce, as well as work toward developing a unified regional market.

The US State Department quickly issued a statement on March 15 lauding the meeting’s accomplishments. “With support from the U.S. Department of State, the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) will continue to lead B5+1 activities in pursuit of sustainable and inclusive economic growth in Central Asia,” the statement concluded.

The United States designed the B5+1 concept as an extension of a political dialogue between Washington and the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The B in the B5 stands for business. The US role is that of facilitator: the concept rests on the expectation that Central Asian states will take ownership of efforts to integrate the region’s economy via strong public-private partnerships. Private sector actors are likewise expected to shape the process.

At the Almaty forum, private sector participants issued a communique expressing an intent to coordinate work that “improves trade, transit, and investment facilitation,” while also striving to “harmonize regulations in key industries” beyond the energy and extractive sectors, which have received the overwhelming majority of all Western investment coming into the region to date. The B5+1 is prioritizing five economic sectors for development: trade and logistics, agribusiness, e-commerce, tourism and renewable energy.

The communique stated that a near-term priority is the creation of a region-wide chamber of commerce to develop and advocate for economic integration. “By coming together and exchanging ideas, leading voices of the business community can help promote collective efforts towards dynamic economic growth and mutual prosperity,” the statement read.

Another priority for the B5+1 is the establishment of a regional arbitration mechanism, effectively a one-stop shop to resolve commercial disputes. “Reliable protection mechanisms will make the region more competitive in attracting investors internationally,” according to the communique. Acknowledging that some Central Asia states may be willing or able to move faster in establishing an arbitration system than others, the communique tacitly endorsed a two-tiered system, in which some lead, and others follow. If two or more Central Asian states can quickly demonstrate the effectiveness of a dispute-resolution system, it would send a “positive signal” to hesitant governments and give impetus to region-wide expansion, the communique read.

Working groups covering the five priority economic sectors outlined specific next steps in the communique. A common need identified across all five sectors is the development of transnational mechanisms to harmonize regulatory and customs frameworks.

Some targeted recommendations to promote transnational trade included the development of a common digital CMR, or contractual documentation in an electronic format enabling truck-borne goods to move across borders smoothly. Many customs procedures at present are not yet digitized. Another recommendation calls for the abolishment of visa requirements for truck drivers involved in import-export activities. To promote tourism, meanwhile, the B5+1 wants governments to adopt a Schengen-like tourism visa that enables sightseers to move freely within the five regional states.

Although the B5+1 is off to an encouraging start, lots of challenges still stand in the way of success. In a region where authoritarian methods tend to shape governmental policy, it remains uncertain how much of the initiative officials are willing to cede to private sector actors. Meanwhile, private sector capabilities in such areas as policy development and advocacy are largely untested. Previous efforts to promote a greater degree of regional economic integration have fallen flat, and efforts to promote a single Central Asian market run counter to the interests of Russia and China.

If the B5+1 maintains its forward momentum, the outcome is envisioned as a well-regulated, efficient single market that opens the floodgates for Western investment. Integration under the B5+1 vision can also ensure the individual sovereignty of each Central Asian state, helping them withstand political and economic pressure exerted by neighboring states and other outside actors.

“Governments and businesses should unite efforts to position Central Asia as an attractive [investment] destination, rather than merely a transit zone in global value chains,” the B5+1 communique reads.

Advocates of the US-led process admit that Washington is hoping to increase its influence in Central Asia with the B5+1 process, but they draw a sharp distinction between this new American approach and Russia’s and China’s. The B5+1’s strategy aims to grow American influence in the region organically in ways that are diametrically opposite to the methods used by Moscow and Beijing.

“All FDI [foreign direct investment] is not created equal,” Eric Hontz, who heads CIPE’s Center for Accountable Investment, said during the Almaty forum. He noted that FDI can have a positive-sum effect, in which both parties in any agreement reap benefits, or zero-sum, in which any given deal has a clear winner and loser. A zero-sum approach, when employed as an FDI strategy, often aims to achieve the “stagnation and capture” by the investor of an entire sector of another state’s economy.

The B5+1 concept is grounded in positive-sum thinking, striving to root Central Asian states in an economic framework with clear and evenly applied rules of the game, enabling the broadening of prosperity. The concept encourages Central Asia to take control of its own destiny and does not seek to turn the region into a zone of Western influence. Central Asian nations would remain free to trade with all states as they see fit. But if the principles outlined in the B5+1 communique can sink deep roots, the region’s underlying economic philosophy would be antithetical to that espoused by both Russia and China. Central Asia, then, would theoretically find it more reliable and lucrative to look West than in other directions.
Putin wins big in Central Asia, but Kazakhstan spoils party (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [3/18/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Neutral]
Russian President Vladimir Putin suffered a crushing election defeat. In Almaty, that is.

Elsewhere in Central Asia, where many thousands of Russian citizenship-holders cast their ballot in the presidential elections over the weekend, he performed far more strongly.

An independent exit poll conducted in Kazakhstan’s business capital surveyed around 1,600 people at a polling station in the consulate and found that only 8 percent declared they had voted for Putin.

Vladislav Davankov, a foil candidate nominated by the New People party, garnered around 70 percent of the votes, the exit poll found.

Anti-Putin sentiment in Almaty was observed in other ways. Hundreds got in line at the consulate polling station at midday on March 17, observing an internationally coordinated action of protest against the Russian government.

“Midday against Putin is the only legal way to express our discontent, even if it is outside Russia,” Andrei Okun, a journalist from St. Petersburg, told RFE/RL’s Kazakh service. “You know you are going to lose, but you still engage in the fight, if only to prove to yourself that you are not a bastard.”

Large numbers of Russians have relocated to Kazakhstan to either evade being drafted into the army or as a gesture of their rejection of Putin’s rule.

Kyrgyzstan likewise has drawn many such people – known collectively by the term relokanty – but there was little sign of anti-Putin dissent there.

Of the more than 7,800 people that cast their ballot, around 81 percent voted for the Russian leader. That was a little short of the 87.3 percent that Putin registered across the board.

In Tajikistan, which hosts a Russian army base, more than 9,500 people voted.

One section of the voters there were Tajiks with dual citizenship. Although such things are hard to gauge in the absence of polling data, it appears pro-Putin sentiments are typically strong in Tajikistan.

A Eurasianet correspondent said turnout may also have been aided by the spread of rumors that anybody failing to cast their ballot might face complications in trying to enter Russia in future.

In Uzbekistan, around 4,600 Russian nationals reportedly voted at polling stations in Tashkent and Samarkand. Reporters on the ground said they saw long lines, although it appears they too were mainly there to register their backing for Putin. The president’s victory there appears to have been less than wholly overwhelming, though. He reportedly got 57.6 percent of the vote against Davankov’s 31.9 percent.

Uzbekistan, like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, also attracted a certain number of relokanty. Despite that incoming cohort of Russian nationals, the number of people that voted in this election was down on 2018, when 5,500 Russians residing in Uzbekistan took part in the polls.

If the stance of Russian diasporas to the election was ambivalent, the same could not be said of Central Asian presidents.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon was the first to congratulate Putin.

“The result is more clear evidence of your lofty political standing and Russian society’s broad support for government policies aimed at ensuring stable social and economic development … and the strengthening the country’s international position,” Rahmon said.

Similarly fulsome compliments arrived from Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s enthusiasm was no reflection of the anti-Putin views held by many Russians living in his country. He described the election as a demonstration of the volume of “popular support for Russian leader’s strategic agenda.”
Calls for Kyrgyz President to Veto ‘Foreign Representatives’ Bill (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [3/18/2024 2:09 PM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Neutral]
Following a third and final reading, on March 14 the Kyrgyz parliament adopted without further debate the “foreign representatives” law, which has drawn consistent criticism from domestic civil society activists and international partners. In the wake of its passage – and amid the void between passage and signature into law – the chorus of opposition has sounded again, urging President Sadyr Japarov to veto the bill.

In a brief joint statement posted late on March 14, the European Union delegation and the embassies of Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, urged Japarov “to listen to the concerns voiced inside and outside the country, and revisit this legislation with parliamentary leaders.”

Provisions in the law “threaten the ability of non-profits and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to operate freely, contravene international norms, and jeopardize our ability to provide assistance that improves the lives of the citizens and residents of the Kyrgyz Republic,” the statement reads.

“If signed in its current form, the law has the potential to hurt the most vulnerable who rely on the essential services – such as food, healthcare, and education – that non-profits and NGOs provide.”

The following day, more concerned statements went out. On March 15, Bir Duino – a Kyrgyz human rights organization – issued a joint statement signed by members of the Solidarity Network, including the Green Alliance of Kyrgyzstan, Nash Vek, Coalition For Equality, and others urging Japarov to veto the “foreign representatives” bill. The statement characterized the law as “aimed exclusively at limiting the activities of civil society organizations.”

“Public organizations in Kyrgyzstan are full partners in the implementation of National Development Programs to promote the [Sustainable Development Goals] and the Global Agenda for Assistance to Mountain Countries, initiated by you personally; we are open and ready for partnership and effective cooperation,” the organizations stated.

Earlier, on March 1, a group of 15 mostly Kyrgyz organizations published a letter addressed to the four major international financial institutions that fund development projects in Kyrgyzstan – the Asian Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, and World Bank – to share their “serious concerns.”

The letter warned: “If adopted, the law will pose a serious threat to the success of development activities in Kyrgyzstan.”

Also on March 15, U.N. Resident Coordinator in Kyrgyzstan Antje Grave issued a statement expressing concern that the “foreign representatives” law “could lead to undue restrictions on the activities of civil society, including potentially impeding progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).”

Grave highlighted the role civil society organizations play, in particular “providing essential services to vulnerable and marginalized people, providing assistance to those in need during crises, protecting human rights and promoting peace.”

Grave noted that the law “could pose challenges to the effective participation of civil society in development initiatives aimed at helping to alleviate poverty, reduce inequality and achieve the SDGs.” Furthermore, it could “also lead to stigmatization of [civil society organizations] and civil society activists, restrictions on human rights, and impede public participation and inclusive dialogue.”

Beyond concerns that the “foreign representatives” law could be used, as its Russian inspiration has been, to close down organizations the government does not like, there are less direct worries that the additional reporting requirements will further strain NGOs already buried in bureaucracy and that the label – “foreign representative” – will stigmatize the sectors and turn individuals away from working with such organizations.

As each of the statements referenced above touched on, NGOs in Kyrgyzstan are often the vehicles through which foreign assistance and development aid is channeled into the country. These organizations implement development projects and many provide basic services.

There’s no evidence that Japarov is seriously considering a veto, but the bill has not yet been signed into law. Japarov has a month to decide whether to sign or veto it.
Kyrgyz Court Annuls Move To Block Independent Kloop Russian Website (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [3/18/2024 1:37 PM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
A court in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, ruled to annul a move by the Central Asian nation’s Culture Ministry to block the Russian-language website of the independent media outlet Kloop.

Lawyer Nurbek Sydykov told RFE/RL on March 18 that if the court’s decision is not appealed or if an appeal is rejected by the Bishkek City Court, the website will resume operations.

The website was blocked last September and later in November the Kyrgyz-language website for the outlet was also blocked amid a government campaign to pressure the Kloop Media Public Foundation.

The former Soviet republic’s Culture Ministry said it blocked the sites after the State Committee of National Security (UKMK) claimed the media outlet distributed false information.

The claim was about a report that appeared on Kloop’s website in September about jailed opposition politician Ravshan Jeenbekov and a statement he made saying that he was tortured while in custody.

The ministry demanded Kloop remove an article about the alleged torture of Jeenbekov from its site in Russian or face being blocked.

On September 12, Kloop published a statement saying it was refusing to remove the material as the story in question attributed all information about the situation faced by Jeenbekov while in custody to actual individuals and sources.

Kloop said at the time it was officially informed of the lawsuit against it and that the move was taken after an audit by the UKMK determined its "published materials are aimed at sharply criticizing the policies of the current government" and that "most of the publications are purely negative, aimed at discrediting representatives of state and municipal bodies."

Established in June 2007, Kloop is a Kyrgyz news website (kloop.kg) whose main contributors are students and graduates of the Kloop Media Public Foundation School of Journalism. As an independent media entity, it is known for publishing reports on corruption within various governmental bodies and providing training to Central Asian journalists in fact-checking and investigative techniques.

RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service, known as Radio Azattyk, Kloop, and the Center for Corruption and Organized Crime Research (OCCRP) have collaborated on a series of investigations concerning corruption in Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan’s civil society and free press have traditionally been the most vibrant in Central Asia. But that has changed amid a deepening government crackdown.

Kyrgyz authorities blocked Radio Azattyk’s websites in Kyrgyz and Russian in late October 2022 after it refused to take down a video, which was produced by Current Time, a Russian-language network run by RFE/RL in cooperation with Voice of America.

Officials of the Central Asian state claimed that the authors of the video "predominantly" took the position of the Tajik side of a story. RFE/RL rejected the accusation saying the broadcaster "takes our commitment to balanced reporting seriously" and that after a review of the content in question, "no violation of our standards" was found.

In July 2023, the Bishkek court annulled the decision that shut down RFE/RL’s operations in Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyz, Tajik Officials Agree On 11 More Kilometers Of Border (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [3/18/2024 10:15 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Kyrgyz officials said on March 17 that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed on roughly another 11 kilometers of the border between the two nations after special talks were held in the Tajik town of Buston last week. The delimitation and demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border has been an issue for decades but turned into an extremely urgent problem in recent years after several deadly clashes took place along disputed segments of the frontier. In all, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is 972 kilometers, of which more than 700 kilometers have now been agreed upon.
Indo-Pacific
One Thing Most Countries Have in Common: Unsafe Air (New York Times)
New York Times [3/19/2024 12:01 AM, Delger Erdenesanaa, 831K, Negative]
Only 10 countries and territories out of 134 achieved the World Health Organization’s standards for a pervasive form of air pollution last year, according to air quality data compiled by IQAir, a Swiss company.

The pollution studied is called fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, because it refers to solid particles less than 2.5 micrometers in size: small enough to enter the bloodstream. PM2.5 is the deadliest form of air pollution, leading to millions of premature deaths each year.

“Air pollution and climate change both have the same culprit, which is fossil fuels,” said Glory Dolphin Hammes, the CEO of IQAir’s North American division.

The World Health Organization sets a guideline that people shouldn’t breathe more than 5 micrograms of fine particulate matter per cubic meter of air, on average, throughout a year. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently proposed tightening its standard from 12 to 9 micrograms per cubic meter.

The few oases of clean air that meet World Health Organization guidelines are mostly islands, as well as Australia and the northern European countries of Finland and Estonia. Of the non-achievers, where the vast majority of the human population lives, the countries with the worst air quality were mostly in Asia and Africa.

Where some of the dirtiest air is found

The four most polluted countries in IQAir’s ranking for 2023 — Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Tajikistan — are in South and Central Asia.

Air quality sensors in almost a third of the region’s cities reported concentrations of fine particulate matter that were more than 10 times the WHO guideline. This was a proportion “vastly exceeding any other region,” the report’s authors wrote.

The researchers pointed to vehicle traffic, coal and industrial emissions, particularly from brick kilns, as major sources of the region’s pollution. Farmers seasonally burning their crop waste contribute to the problem, as do households burning wood and dung for heat and cooking.

China reversed recent gains

One notable change in 2023 was a 6.3 percent increase in China’s air pollution compared with 2022, after at least five years of improvement. Beijing experienced a 14 percent increase in PM2.5 pollution last year.

The national government announced a “war against pollution” in 2014 and had been making progress ever since. But the sharpest decline in China’s PM2.5 pollution happened in 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic forced much of the country’s economic activity to slow or shut down. Ms. Dolphin Hammes attributed last year’s uptick to a reopening economy.

And challenges remain: Eleven cities in China reported air pollution levels last year that exceeded the WHO guidelines by 10 times or more. The worst was Hotan, Xinjiang.

Significant gaps in the data

IQAir researchers analyze data from more than 30,000 air quality monitoring stations and sensors across 134 countries, territories and disputed regions. Some of these monitoring stations are run by government agencies, while others are overseen by nonprofit organizations, schools, private companies and citizen scientists.

There are large gaps in ground-level air quality monitoring in Africa and the Middle East, including in regions where satellite data show some of the highest levels of air pollution on Earth.

As IQAir works to add data from more cities and countries in future years, “the worst might be yet to come in terms of what we’re measuring,” Ms. Dolphin Hammes said.

Wildfire smoke: a growing problem

Although North America is one of the cleaner regions in the world, in 2023 wildfires burned 4 percent of Canada’s forests, an area about half the size of Germany, and significantly impaired air quality.

Usually, North America’s list of most polluted cities is dominated by the United States. But last year, the top 13 spots all went to Canadian cities, many of them in Alberta.

In the United States, cities in the Upper Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic states also got significant amounts of PM2.5 pollution from wildfire smoke that drifted across the border.

Risks of short-term exposure

It’s not just chronic exposure to air pollution that harms people’s health.

For vulnerable people like the very young and old, or those with underlying illnesses, breathing in large amounts of fine particulate pollution for just a few hours or days can sometimes be deadly. About 1 million premature deaths per year can be attributed to short-term PM2.5 exposure, according to a recent global study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.

The problem is worst in East and South Asia, as well as in West Africa.

Without accounting for short-term exposures, “we might be underestimating the mortality burden from air pollution,” said Yuming Guo, a professor at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and one of the study’s authors.

U.S. disparities widen

Within individual countries, air pollution and its health effects aren’t evenly distributed.

Air quality in the United States has generally been improving since the Clean Air Act of the 1970s. Last decade, premature deaths from PM2.5 exposure declined to about 49,400 in 2019, down from about 69,000 in 2010.

But progress has happened faster in some communities than in others. Racial and ethnic disparities in air pollution deaths have grown in recent years, according to a national study published this month.

The census tracts in the United States with the fewest white residents have about 32 percent higher rates of PM2.5-related deaths, compared with those with the most white residents. This disparity in deaths per capita has increased by 16 percent between 2010 and 2019.

The study examined race and ethnicity separately, and found the disparity between the census tracts with the most and least Hispanic residents grew even more, by 40 percent.

In IQAir’s rankings, the United States is doing much better than most other countries. But studies that dig deeper show air quality is still an issue, said Gaige Kerr, a research scientist at George Washington University and the lead author of the disparities paper published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives. “There’s still a lot of work to do,” he said.

Dr. Kerr’s research showed that mortality rates were highest on the Gulf Coast and in the Ohio River Valley, in areas dominated by petrochemical and manufacturing industries. He also noted that researchers have seen a slight uptick in rates of PM2.5-related deaths starting around 2016, particularly in the Western states, likely because of increasing wildfires.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Afghanistan
@MoFA_Afg
[3/18/2024 1:14 PM, 62.4K followers, 55 retweets, 208 likes]
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, in response to the attacks by the Pakistani military on Paktika and Khost provinces, which resulted in the martyrdom of women and children,

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Afghanistan
@MoFA_Afg
[3/18/2024 1:17 PM, 62.4K followers, 10 likes]
summoned the head of the Pakistani embassy in Kabul and handed him a letter of protest. While expressing its categoric condemnation of the mentioned attacks, IEA-MoFA reminds Pakistan that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has long experience in fighting for freedom

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Afghanistan
@MoFA_Afg
[3/18/2024 1:17 PM, 62.4K followers, 15 likes]
against world superpowers, and under no circumstance can tolerate aggression on its soil. The new civilian government and the people of Pakistan should not allow the irresponsible actions

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Afghanistan
@MoFA_Afg
[3/18/2024 1:17 PM, 62.4K followers, 13 likes]
and misguided policies of certain circles to jeopardize relations between the two neighboring Muslim countries.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[3/18/2024 10:23 PM, 251.9K followers, 5 retweets, 31 likes]
Pakistan claims to respects Afghanistan’s territorial sovereignty and appears to adopt more conciliatory tone. Does it have to do with the way the Taliban militarily responded to Pakistani aggression?

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[3/18/2024 2:40 PM, 251.9K followers, 95 retweets, 413 likes]
Clashes erupt over Durand line in a number of locations as Taliban retaliate against the air strikes by the Pakistani army in Paktika and Khost provinces this morning. Taliban won’t be bullied by these strikes and they show muscle by gearing up for a fight against the Pakistani-military. The future holds critical moments for this ever-getting complicated relationship between the Taliban and their closest and historic ally, the Pakistani army.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[3/18/2024 6:50 AM, 251.9K followers, 15 likes]
According to Taliban’s Defense ministry “ Air strikes by Pakistani fighter jets targeted residential homes in Spira district in Khost province and Birmal district in neighbouring Paktika province.”

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[3/18/2024 12:30 PM, 209.7K followers, 67 retweets, 398 likes]
This isn’t the first time Pakistan has staged military operations against TTP in Afghanistan, but these strikes appear to have been relatively wide in scope, and also publicly confirmed by both Pakistan and Afghanistan-and that’s unusual. This could make deescalation difficult.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[3/18/2024 12:30 PM, 209.7K followers, 8 retweets, 40 likes]
Not to mention, Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban in recent months have been more tense than those with Iran and even (in the context of border stability) India. It’s not easy to quickly walk things back, in the way we saw with the recent Pakistan-Iran border crisis.

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[3/19/2024 3:00 AM, 169.5K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
As hopelessness becomes widespread among Afghan women and girls, suicide and suicidal ideation is increasing https://sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2024-01-30qr-section2.pdf#page=21
Pakistan
The President of Pakistan
@PresOfPakistan
[3/18/2024 11:34 AM, 733.3K followers, 68 retweets, 133 likes]
President Asif Ali Zardari had a meeting with the Ambassador of United States of America to Pakistan, Mr. Donald Blome.
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[3/18/2024 12:19 PM, 96.4M followers, 7.2K retweets, 37K likes]
The 1998 Coimbatore terror bombings can never be forgotten. Today while in the city, paid homage to those we lost in those bombings.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[3/18/2024 11:56 AM, 96.4M followers, 10K retweets, 59K likes]
Tamil Nadu is going to surprise everyone with the results. Our Party is emerging as a very strong force across the state. The people are in no mood to support the DMK any longer.
Here are some more glimpses from Coimbatore.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[3/18/2024 11:55 AM, 96.4M followers, 5.3K retweets, 26K likes]
The people of Coimbatore have won me over! The roadshow this evening will be remembered for years and years to come. What was special was the participation of people from all walks of life. These blessings are greatly cherished.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[3/18/2024 10:36 AM, 96.4M followers, 5.5K retweets, 29K likes]
Thank you Shivamogga! It was indeed special to be among the people there. https://twitter.com/i/status/1769734727873728857

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[3/18/2024 8:48 AM, 96.4M followers, 3.1K retweets, 16K likes]
An indication of Karnataka’s mood can be seen at the massive rally in Shivamogga. People are already frustrated with Congress’ poor governance.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[3/18/2024 7:59 AM, 96.4M followers, 10K retweets, 71K likes]
Warm congratulations to H.E. Mr. Vladimir Putin on his re-election as the President of the Russian Federation. Look forward to working together to further strengthen the time-tested Special & Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia in the years to come. @KremlinRussia

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[3/19/2024 2:36 AM, 1.5M followers, 27 retweets, 291 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President of India and Chairman, Rajya Sabha, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar administered oath to re-elected Member of Rajya Sabha, Shri Sanjay Singh ji, in Parliament House today. @SanjayAzadSln

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[3/18/2024 1:57 PM, 1.5M followers, 56 retweets, 490 likes]
Pained to hear about the loss of lives in the tragic building collapse incident in Kolkata. My heart goes out to the bereaved families; may they find strength in the midst of this sorrow. I pray for the speedy recovery of the injured.

Tanvi Madan
@tanvi_madan
[3/18/2024 11:00 AM, 88.2K followers, 97 retweets, 328 likes]
Been a few recent moments where Indian students in US hv died, authorities & Indian mission have said there’s no foul play, and yet Indian media outlets have tried to sensationalize the deaths as "attacks." I’m not sure why they’re doing this but it’s not fair to the families.

Tanvi Madan
@tanvi_madan
[3/18/2024 11:53 AM,88.2K followers, 27 retweets, 46 likes]
Out of consideration for the families, I’m excluding names but reports re 8 student deaths in 2024:
- 1 attacked
- 2 died by suicide
- 2 fentanyl overdoses
- 1 asphyxia, w cold exposure & ethanol intoxication
- 1 hypothermia, w acute alcohol intoxication
- 1 jet ski accident

Tanvi Madan
@tanvi_madan
[3/18/2024 1:06 PM, 88.2K followers, 5 retweets, 27 likes]
There are broader issues involved here -- Indian students and students of Indian origin aren’t going to be immune from the problems of society. Which is why their families *should* care about what’s happening in the US -- in these cases though not for the reasons media is saying
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[3/19/2024 1:43 AM, 637K followers, 11 retweets, 19 likes]
Prime Minister #SheikhHasina has asked the guardians and teachers not to put extra pressure on students but rather let them learn through #sports and various #culturalactivities. She also urged the guardians to maintain a friendly relationship with their children to keep them away from different social diseases like #terrorism, #militancy, #drugabuse and #corruption. https://albd.org/articles/news/41345

Awami League
@albd1971
[3/18/2024 7:28 AM, 637K followers, 56 retweets, 139 likes]
.@SajeebWazed, ICT Affairs Advisor to the Prime Minister #SheikhHasina, has said that the #UnitedStates’ take on #democracy and #BangladeshPolls is guided by a goal of putting a “puppet regime” in place. “Unless the United States gets its puppet regime in place in Bangladesh, no election will be good enough according to them!” — reads a post on his verified @Facebook page. #USforeignpolicy moves involving #Bangladesh have been questioned and criticised by several foreign policy analysts and civil society members in the span of the last few months. A series of columns and news analysis by analysts and academics even found the attitude to be “singling out” the youngest nation in #SouthAsia. https://albd.org/articles/news/41343

Martin Raiser
@MartinRaiser
[3/18/2024 8:03 PM, 5.7K followers]
Delighted to meet representatives from Rohingya civil society and #Bangladesh Embassy at the #HumanitarianForum 2024. We need to work together to support the Rohingya people and host communities. #IDAworks.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives
@MoFAmv
[3/18/2024 8:05 AM, 53.6K followers, 17 retweets, 32 likes]
The fourth bilateral review meeting between 🇲🇻 - 🇮🇳 on Indian LoC projects, co-chaired by @AmbMunu and attended by officials from @MEAIndia, @IndiaEximBank, and GOM agencies, assessed ongoing projects and addressed challenges for progress. @HCIMaldives

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[3/18/2024 6:23 AM, 5.1K followers, 8 likes]
Delighted to congratulate the 11 newly appointed Heads of Mission of Sri Lanka to Canada, the Russian Federation, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of Poland, the Kingdom of Sweden, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Kingdom of Thailand, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, and the Republic of Maldives, appointed by H. E. the President. They commenced their orientation program organized by @MFA_SriLanka, which includes briefings, meetings, and visits, including to the Northern Province, Eastern Province & Hambantota, with the objective of providing them with insights into the current economic, social, and political context.

Karu Jayasuriya
@KaruOnline
[3/18/2024 3:16 AM, 53.5K followers, 3 retweets, 23 likes]
A new development bank with a capital of Rs. 500 billion is going to be established. Development banks provide the foundation for industrial growth especially for SMEs. A new era based on the theme, ‘export or perish’ must come back.

Martin Raiser
@MartinRaiser
[3/18/2024 6:01 AM, 5.7K followers, 14 retweets, 29 likes]
In #SriLanka, a free ambulance service is using digital innovation and homegrown solutions to save countless lives. A great example of how countries in #SouthAsia continue to be resilient and innovative during and despite crises. More in my new blog: https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/innovating-better-health-saving-lives-sri-lankas-ambulance-story
Central Asia
Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[3/18/2024 4:31 AM, 28.8K followers, 6 retweets, 17 likes]
Tokayev grants #Kazakhstan security services more powers. Presumably because they don’t have enough already

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[3/19/2024 12:24 AM, 4.5K followers]
Participation at the inauguration of national costumes of Central Asian countries exhibition https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14628/participation-at-the-inauguration-of-national-costumes-of-central-asian-countries-exhibition

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[3/18/2024 8:00 AM, 4.5K followers, 2 retweets, 2 likes]
Meeting of the Ambassador with foreign compatriots in Ashgabat https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14625/meeting-of-the-ambassador-with-foreign-compatriots-in-ashgabat

Furqat Sidiqov
@FurqatSidiq
[3/18/2024 9:28 PM, 1.2K followers, 1 retweet, 6 likes]
Productive meeting with Deputy Under Secretary for Nuclear Security, U.S. Department of Energy Frank Rose. Discussed opportunities in the energy sphere. Looking forward to our further cooperation.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[3/18/2024 6:40 AM, 159.9K followers, 3 retweets, 7 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev made a visit to the Agency for #PlantQuarantine and Protection today to assess the strategies and initiatives prepared for this crucial sector. The President went through the advanced facilities of the agency’s #laboratory, issuing instructions to bolster its scientific research capabilities, keep pace with international scientific developments, and ensure their rapid application in the respective fields. He also took a look at the state-of-the-art technology and apparatus being utilized in the agrochemical framework.

{End of Report}
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