SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS

epubdos : Afghanistan

Prepared for the U.S. Department of State

Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs

By TechMIS
www.TechMIS.com

Mobile User Copy

TO:	SCA & Staff
DATE:	Wednesday, June 5, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan

Emirati leader meets with Taliban official facing $10 million US bounty over attacks (AP)

AP [6/5/2024 1:44 AM, Jon Gambrell, 456K, Neutral]
The leader of the United Arab Emirates met Tuesday with an official in the Taliban government still wanted by the United States on an up-to $10 million bounty over his involvement in an attack that killed an American citizen and other assaults.

The meeting highlights the growing divide internationally on how to deal with the Taliban, who seized control of Afghanistan in 2021 and since have barred girls from attending school beyond the sixth grade and otherwise restricted women’s role in public life. While the West still doesn’t recognize the Taliban as Kabul’s government, nations in the Mideast and elsewhere have reached out to them.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the ruler of Abu Dhabi, met Sirajuddin Haqqani at the Qasr Al Shati palace in the Emirati capital, the state-run WAM news agency reported. It published an image of Sheikh Mohammed shaking hands with Haqqani, the Taliban’s interior minister who also heads the Haqqani network, a powerful network within the group blamed for some of the bloodiest attacks against Afghanistan’s former Western-backed government.

“The two sides discussed strengthening the bonds of cooperation between the two countries and ways to enhance ties to serve mutual interests and contribute to regional stability,” WAM said. “The discussions focused on economic and development fields, as well as support for reconstruction and development in Afghanistan.”

For their part, the Taliban described the two men as discussed “matter of mutual interests,” without elaborating. It added that the Taliban’s spy chief, Abdul Haq Wasiq, also took part in the meeting. Wasiq had been held for years at the U.S. military’s prison at Guantanamo Bay and released in 2014 in a swap that saw U.S. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, captured after leaving his post in 2009, released.

Haqqani, believed to be in his 50s, has been on the U.S. radar even after the Taliban takeover. In 2022, a U.S. drone strike in Kabul killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri, who had called for striking the United States for years after taking over from Osama bin Laden. The house in which al-Zawahri was killed was a home for Haqqani, according to U.S. officials.

While the Taliban argued the strike violated the terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement that put in motion the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the accord also included a promise by the Taliban not harbor al-Qaida members or others seeking to attack America.

The Haqqani network grew into one of the deadliest arms of the Taliban after the U.S.-led 2001 invasion of Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks. The group employed roadside bombs, suicide bombings and other attacks, including on the Indian and U.S. embassies, the Afghan presidency and other major targets. They also have been linked to extortion, kidnapping and other criminal activity.

Haqqani himself specifically acknowledged planning a January 2008 attack against the Serena Hotel in Kabul, which killed six people, including U.S. citizen Thor David Hesla.

The U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment over Haqqani’s visit. The U.S. Embassy in Abu Dhabi is about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the palace where the meeting took place. The U.S. long has been a security guarantor for the UAE, a federation of seven hereditarily ruled sheikhdoms also home to Dubai, and has thousands of troops working out Al Dhafra Air Base and other locations in the country.

Since the Taliban takeover, China is the most-prominent country to accept a diplomat from the group. Other countries have accepted de facto Taliban representatives, like Qatar, which has been a key mediator between the U.S. and the group. American envoys have met multiple times with the Taliban as well.

The UAE, which hosted a Taliban diplomatic mission during the Taliban’s first rule in Afghanistan, has been trying to solidify ties to the group even as it sent troops to back the Western coalition that fought for decades in the country. The low-cost UAE-based carriers Air Arabia and FlyDubai have begun flying into Kabul International Airport again, while an Emirati company won a security contract for airfields in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the international community led by the United Nations has tried to provide aid to Afghanistan, as millions struggle to have enough to eat, natural disasters kill those in rural areas and the country’s economy has drastically contracted.

Taliban evicted 6,000 displaced Afghans form informal settlements, says aid group (AP)

AP [6/4/2024 11:51 AM, Staff, 31180K, Negative]
Taliban authorities in Afghanistan have evicted thousands of displaced people in the capital Kabul and demolished their informal settlements, making more than 800 vulnerable families homeless, an aid group said Tuesday.

The Norwegian Refugee Council urged Taliban authorities to immediately halt ongoing evictions until appropriate longer-term solutions for relocation have been identified.

“I am deeply shocked by Sunday’s forced eviction of around 6,000 internally displaced people in the capital. These are some of the most vulnerable communities in Afghanistan,” said Neil Turner, NRC’s country director in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is still in the grip of growing humanitarian and socioeconomic crises that have devastated the population since the Taliban takeover in August 2021.

At the end of 2023, 4.2 million people were internally displaced as a result of conflict and violence, and 1.5 million due to disasters, according to NCR.

The sudden return of around 600,000 Afghans from Pakistan since last September has dramatically increased the number of displaced people in the country, placing additional burdens on already stretched resources, said the group.

Taliban publicly flog 63 Afghan men, women for crimes such as ‘immoral relations’ (VOA)

VOA [6/4/2024 12:07 PM, Ayaz Gul, 4032K, Negative]
The Taliban’s supreme court announced Tuesday that more than 63 people, including 14 women, were publicly flogged in northern Afghanistan after being convicted of crimes such as homosexuality, adultery, and other “immoral relations.”

This is the first time the fundamentalist Taliban rulers flogged such a large group of Afghans in public since returning to power in Kabul nearly three years ago.

The announcement stated that Tuesday’s punishments were executed in the central sports stadium of Sar-e Pul, the capital of the Afghan province of the same name. The provincial governor, judges, security officials, area elders, and members of the public were among the onlookers.

The Taliban have publicly flogged hundreds of men and women in sports stadiums across the country since retaking control of Afghanistan in August 2021. At least five Afghans convicted of murder have also been executed publicly by gunfire.

The United Nations and global human rights groups have decried judicial corporal punishment and executions in public under Taliban rule, saying they are prohibited under international human rights law and demanding they must cease immediately.

The reclusive Taliban leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, has disregarded international criticism and calls to stop the implementation of the Islamic criminal justice system in line with his harsh interpretation of Islam.

Akhundzada has vowed to enforce the public stoning of women for adultery, though no such punishment has been reported so far. The U.N. decried his announcement as disturbing.

International rights groups have consistently criticized worsening human rights conditions, particularly those of Afghan women, after the Taliban takeover, demanding that they reverse their restrictions on women and civil liberty.

De facto Afghan authorities have barred girls from attending schools beyond the sixth grade and many women from public and private workplaces, deterring the world from granting diplomatic recognition to the men-only Taliban government.

Rights group urges UN to demand Taliban include women in talks about future (VOA)

VOA [6/4/2024 7:17 PM, Abdur Razzaq, 4032K, Neutral]
As the United Nations and the Taliban prepare to discuss Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar, on June 30, a New York-based global women’s rights advocacy nongovernmental organization has urged the U.N. to demand the Taliban ensure full and equal participation of Afghan women, peacebuilders and human rights defenders in all discussions about Afghanistan’s future.

During forthcoming meetings, the U.N. Security Council should demand that "the Taliban immediately reverse all policies and practices that restrict the full enjoyment of women’s human rights, in accordance with Afghanistan’s international obligations, including the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), as well as relevant Security Council resolutions," the group, the Working Group on Women, Peace and Security, said in a communication posted May 30 on its website.

Since taking power nearly three years ago, the Taliban have systematically violated women’s human rights in both policy and practice by codifying gender-based discrimination across nearly every aspect of public and private life, including the recent announcement that the Taliban intend to resume public stoning of women as punishment for adultery, the group said in the digital communication "Monthly Action Points for the Security Council June 2024."

Afghan rights activists say the upcoming Doha meeting is an opportunity for the United Nations to raise the issue of restrictions on Afghan women with the Taliban.

Shinkai Karokhail, an Afghan women’s rights activist based in Canada, told VOA that the call for inclusion of Afghan women in conversations about their future is of critical significance.

"Afghan women inclusion is important given their significant sufferings and exclusion from societal, economic and political life due to political changes in Afghanistan," said Karokhail, who added the Doha meeting agenda should prioritize the concerns of the Afghan community.

Azizuddin Maarij, a London-based Afghan rights activist, said women must be part of the upcoming Doha meeting.

"The meeting should invite women, men and civil activists who have actively worked for Afghan women’s rights," Maarij told VOA via Skype.

Adela Behram, an Afghan women’s rights activist and former Afghan presidential adviser, told VOA the international community should put pressure on the Taliban to change their ban on the education of women.

The Doha meeting scheduled for June 30 will be the third gathering on Afghanistan in Qatar’s capital since U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres initiated the process in May 2023, in a bid to increase interaction with Afghan Taliban "in a structured manner."

The Taliban have not officially announced that they will participate in the Doha meeting. A Taliban foreign ministry spokesperson cited Taliban senior official Zakir Jalali in a May 29 post on the social media platform X, that "representatives of the Islamic emirate will take part in the main discussions" in Doha.

Jalali said the Taliban foreign ministry was waiting for the U.N. to share the latest details about the Doha huddle to enable Kabul to send its delegation there.

The U.N. has not issued an agenda for the planned meeting in Doha but the global agency’s under-secretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, visited Afghanistan from May 18 to 21, where her discussions, apart from other issues, with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi were focused on the Doha meetings.

DiCarlo, in her May 28 address to a U.N. Security Council meeting, cited Afghanistan as a "crying example" where women and girls are systematically denied rights and dignity, particularly in education.

With Pensions Scrapped, Afghan Retirees Forced To Work As Street Vendors (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [6/4/2024 7:30 AM, Staff, 1530K, Negative]
Atel hauls a wooden cart every day around the Afghan capital, Kabul, selling vegetables.

The 70-year-old pensioner retired around five years ago. But since seizing power in 2021, the Taliban has stopped paying pensions.

That has forced thousands of pensioners like Atel back to work, often as street vendors, to feed their families amid a devastating economic and humanitarian crisis in the country.

"It’s been nearly three years since we last received our pensions," Atel told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi. "I don’t have the strength to do manual labor. But I buy onions and potatoes at the market each day and resell them."

The work is grueling, and he only earns around $1 per day. But Atel, who has a family of eight, said he has no choice but to work.

Mohammad Nasim is another pensioner who has been forced to find a job. He sells notebooks and pens on the street, earning around $1 per day.

"I don’t have the means to do other work," Nasim, who has a disability, told Radio Azadi. "On the other hand, I’m in pain and I don’t even have money to pay for my prescriptions."

‘Un-Islamic’

An estimated 150,000 pensioners received a monthly payment of around $100 from the state before the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, where the retirement age is 65.

But retirees have not been paid their pensions since then, pushing some families toward starvation. Many of the pensioners served governments that had fought against the Taliban.

In April, the Taliban’s spiritual leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, ordered his government to stop deducting retirement contributions from the salaries of civil servants, effectively dismantling the pension system. Akhundzada suggested the system was "un-Islamic."

The move triggered protests by retirees who said they cannot survive without state assistance.

Scores of retired civil servants and retired members of the armed forces staged a rally in Kabul on April 20. The protest was dispersed by the Taliban.

‘Poorest People’

Mass unemployment and rising poverty as well as the lack of government assistance have forced the elderly and even children to find what work they can. The Taliban’s severe restrictions on female employment has also deprived families of breadwinners.

Not all pensioners are able to work due to illness or their advanced age. And those who can find it difficult to secure even menial jobs.

"We have gray beards, our hands and feet tremble, and no one gives us work," a pensioner, who attended the April protest and spoke on condition of anonymity, told Radio Azadi.

Aafandi Sangar, head of the Afghan Pensioners Association, said the "poorest people in Afghanistan are pensioners who can no longer work."

"Some of them are doing hard work but some are sick [and unable to work]," he told Radio Azadi.

Sangar said pensioners will continue to protest and demand their rights from the Taliban government.

"This money is the personal money of the pensioners," he said. "It’s not government money. Pensions are the inalienable right of every retiree."

Germany looks to deportations to Afghanistan after police killing (Reuters)

Reuters [6/4/2024 9:21 AM, Andreas Rinke and Madeline Chambers, 42991K, Negative]
Germany is considering deporting Afghan migrants who pose a security threat back to Afghanistan, the interior minister said on Tuesday, after the killing of a police officer in a knife attack last week drew calls for a tougher line on migration.

Such a move would be controversial as Germany does not repatriate people to countries where they are threatened with death. It stopped deportations to Afghanistan after the Taliban took power in 2021. In addition, reaching a deal with the Taliban, some of whose officials are under international sanctions, is widely seen as problematic.

However, just days before European elections in which the far-right is expected to perform strongly, the minister said she had been intensively looking at the issue for months and planned to make a decision as soon as possible.

"It is clear to me that people who pose a potential threat to Germany’s security must be deported quickly," Interior Minister Nancy Faeser told reporters, adding this included sending people to Afghanistan and Syria.

"I am also quite adamant that Germany’s security interests clearly outweigh the interests of those affected," she said, adding the government was already trying to speed up deportations to other countries.

The knife attack on Friday by a 25-year-old originally from Afghanistan severely injured six people at an anti-Islam event in Mannheim on Friday. A policeman died from his injuries. The attacker, who was shot and wounded was not living illegally in Germany.

In the last few days, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has used the attack to call for a tougher migrant policy.

"Our thoughts are with all civil servants who have to put their lives in danger every day because of a misguided migration and security policy,” the AfD’s co-leaders said.

Within the awkward three-way coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats), the Greens oppose plans for deportations to Afghanistan.

Pakistan

Imran Khan Remains Imprisoned Over His Wife’s Menstrual Cycles. State Department Says That’s ‘Something for the Pakistani Courts to Decide.’(The Intercept)

The Intercept [6/4/2024 11:34 AM, Ryan Grim and Murtaza Hussain, 2.4M, Neutral]
After an arduous legal fight, a Pakistani court on Monday acquitted former Prime Minister Imran Khan on charges related to his handling of a confidential intelligence cable, known within the Pakistani government as a cypher.

Khan’s acquittal by the Islamabad High Court is a major victory for the former prime minister and his supporters, coming on the heels of a suspended sentence in a separate corruption case.

The ruling leaves Khan behind bars on precisely one charge: namely, that he and his third wife Bushra Bibi entered into an “un-Islamic marriage,” a crime for which Khan and Bibi are serving seven-year sentences.

The court, both during the hearing and in its ruling, dove into the details of Bibi’s menstrual cycle, ultimately rejecting her claim that three cycles had passed between her divorce and her marriage to Khan. Instead, the court relied on the word of her ex-husband.

Asked by The Intercept at a briefing, State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said the case and its merits were none of the United States’ business.

“We’ve addressed the question of Imran Khan many times,” Miller said. “The legal proceedings against him are something for the Pakistani courts to decide.”

Pressed on whether it was truly the case that Bibi’s menstrual cycles were a matter for the courts, Miller said that perhaps a Pakistani court will toss out this conviction just as they did the cypher case.

The overturning of the so-called cypher case was a blow to the Pakistani government’s contention that Khan was a traitor to his country, and bolsters his supporters’ position that the charges against the imprisoned former prime minister are politically motivated.

Khan and his ex-Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi had previously been sentenced to 10 years in prison for allegedly mishandling the secret document, including Khan’s alleged brandishing a paper copy of it at a political rally.

The cypher has long since been a central piece of drama in Pakistan’s political wrangling. Khan had claimed in several instances, even when still prime minister, that the cypher revealed U.S. involvement in his removal from power in a no-confidence vote in 2022.

In 2023, the cypher was provided to The Intercept by a source in the Pakistani military. The document showed that during Khan’s time in office, U.S. State Department officials had threatened the then-Pakistani ambassador to the U.S. about damaged ties between the two countries if Khan remained in power. Shortly after the meeting, a vote of no-confidence in Parliament advanced, a move orchestrated by the powerful Pakistani military that succeeded in removing Khan from office.

Since then, Khan and his supporters have been in an escalating conflict with the military, which has led to widespread crackdowns, killings, and torture, as well as a ban on Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI. Khan himself was imprisoned on an array of charges.

The State Department has remained muted on the crackdown on democracy in Pakistan, including after February elections marred by extensive and brazen fraud.

Despite Khan’s imprisonment and a general ban on his party, candidates associated with PTI did resoundingly well in the vote. Following exit polls that seemed to show PTI-affiliated politicians sailing to victory, official announcements began to pour in that the candidates were losing. Amid allegations of election rigging by the military at the regional level, a coalition of opposition parties took power and was quickly recognized by the U.S.

The charges against Khan have now almost all fallen apart, save for an allegation of legal impropriety in Khan’s marriage to Bibi.

The court, in its ruling, writes that her ex-husband tried to prevent his then-wife from visiting Khan, saying he “tried to stop her by force and during which hard words and even abuses were also exchanged but of no avail.”

The court, in its ruling, also approvingly reproduced her ex-husband’s antisemitic conspiracy theories, noting that “complainant believes that sister of respondent No.02” — Khan’s wife — “who resides in UAE has strong connection with Jewish Lobby.”

Bibi’s ex-husband, according to the ruling, also complained he was denied his right of “rujuh” — which refers to a husband getting their wife back in the initial period after a divorce. “He pointed out that under the law and ‘Shariah,’ the complainant has a right to have ‘Rujuh’ to his wife,” the ruling says, “but he was deprived of such right by the respondents.”

Protest In Pakistan-held Kashmir Against Modi’s Win (Agence France-Presse)

Agence France-Presse [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 1.4M, Neutral]
Scores of people staged a small protest in the Pakistan-administered region of Kashmir on Tuesday, an AFP journalist said, as Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed election victory in neighbouring India.

The protesters criticised the crackdown in recent years by Modi’s government on the Indian side of the majority-Muslim disputed territory of Kashmir.

Born out of the partition of British-ruled India in 1947, Pakistan and India have fought two wars over mountainous Kashmir.

The region is divided between the neighbours but claimed in full by both.

Uzair Ahmad Ghazali, the head of a Kashmiri refugee organisation, told crowds at a rally in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan’s Kashmir, that Modi’s re-election would bring "more oppression and more restrictions for Kashmiri Muslims".

"There is a threat to the peace in the region due to the fanaticism of Modi," Kashmiri lawyer Majid Awan said.

In 2019, Modi revoked the limited autonomy of Indian-administered Kashmir -- a move widely celebrated across India but which led Pakistan to suspend bilateral trade and downgrade diplomatic ties with New Delhi.

The arch-rivals regularly trade accusations of espionage and of stoking militancy in each other’s territory.

Pakistan’s recently elected Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has previously hinted at wanting to improve ties with India.

But analysts say Pakistan, a sixth of the size of India, has few levers to pull.

"Pakistan is trying to project itself as a normal country after the war on terror and good relations with India would help its image and its economy," Qamar Cheema, political analyst and director at the Sanober Institute think tank in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad.

"But Modi doesn’t want to engage with Pakistan, it’s not important to him. There’s also a probability he would start a dialogue and then backtrack when it suits him, as he has done before."

Any rapprochement would also require the blessing of the military, which holds huge sway over Pakistan’s foreign policy, according to analysts, and risk backlash at home.

Modi claimed election victory on Tuesday, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to clinch an overall parliamentary majority and will need support from alliance partners, results from India’s election commission showed.

"Perhaps a diminished majority will convince Modi that India and Pakistan are neighbours and they cannot afford to avoid talking forever," Husain Haqqani, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington and a former Pakistan ambassador.

India

US expects continued close ties, human rights talks with India after elections (Reuters)

Reuters [6/4/2024 3:33 PM, Kanishka Singh and Humeyra Pamuk, 42991K, Negative]
The U.S. said on Tuesday it expects continued close ties, along with discussions on human rights concerns, with India after elections in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked set to retain power but with a surprisingly slim majority.

Modi looked set to retain power at the head of a ruling coalition but his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party lost its outright majority for the first time in a decade as voters defied predictions of another landslide.

"I expect a continued close partnership between the U.S. and India. There is a great partnership - both at the government level and at the people-to-people level - and I fully expect that to continue," a State Department spokesperson told reporters.

Last year, during a visit by Modi to the U.S., the two countries announced a range of agreements on semiconductors, critical minerals, technology, defense and space cooperation.

The State Department also said it will continue raising human rights concerns. While there has been occasional criticism by Washington, political analysts say it is restrained in public criticism because it hopes India will act as a counterweight to an expansionist China.

"When we have concerns about human rights, as we have in India, we express those openly. We express them directly to the government of India. We have done that and we’ll continue to do it, as we do with countries all around the world," the State Department spokesperson added.

The government under Modi denies discriminating against minorities and dissidents, and says it works for the benefit of all Indians.

Human rights advocates contest this. They point to a rise in anti-Muslim hate speech, the revoking, opens new tab of Muslim-majority Kashmir’s special status, a citizenship law, that the U.N. calls "fundamentally discriminatory," the demolition of Muslim properties, in the name of removing illegal construction and India’s low rank in the World Press Freedom Index, opens new tab.

Early Election Results Suggest Sharp Turnaround for Indian National Congress (New York Times)

New York Times [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Sameer Yasir, 831K, Neutral]
In India’s last general election, in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party won 303 of 543 parliamentary seats — nearly six times as many as the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress. It was a stinging electoral blow for the Congress, a once-dominant party that has appeared greatly diminished in recent years, and exit polls in this year’s election had not suggested it would fare much better.

But early election results on Tuesday indicated a far stronger showing than expected for the Congress. The party and its allies were leading in nearly 230 races, a sharp turnaround that prompted jubilation at the Congress headquarters in New Delhi, where supporters erupted in cheers each time a television channel announced a new lead for one of its candidates.

“Whatever the final results, one thing is clear — it is a moral victory for Congress and our leader Rahul Gandhi, and defeat for B.J.P.,” said Robin Michael, a political worker, referring to Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party.

While there was no indication that Congress and the opposition coalition it leads would scrape together a majority to unseat Mr. Modi, party workers said that they had dented Mr. Modi’s aura of invincibility. They praised Mr. Gandhi, the Congress party’s most prominent figure and a great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first post-independence prime minister.

Last year, as Mr. Gandhi sought to burnish his standing by leading long marches across India, the B.J.P. ensnared him in a court case that led to his expulsion from Parliament. He was later returned to his seat by India’s highest court. On Tuesday, Mr. Gandhi was on track to win his parliamentary seat in the southern state of Kerala.

The Congress, long positioned at India’s political center, has struggled to find a direction and offer an ideological alternative to the Hindu nationalist B.J.P. It has faced rebellions, infighting and periodic fits of soul-searching over whether to rally behind a new face — only to stick with its dynastic leadership.

This year, despite expectations, Mr. Gandhi had set a target of doubling the party’s 2019 tally of 52 seats. By late Tuesday afternoon, it was leading in nearly 100 seats.

“We will stop Modi from making a mockery of this country and turning people against each other,” said Sandeep Mishra, a Congress worker at party headquarters. He added: “Indians are fed up with Modi.”

Modi’s Party May Need Partners to Form a Government (New York Times)

New York Times [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Hari Yumar, Mujib Mashal, and Mike Ives, 831K, Neutral]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party will likely need help from junior partners to form a government under the rules of India’s parliamentary system, early election results indicated on Tuesday.

In a 2019 election that handed Mr. Modi a second consecutive term, his Bharatiya Janata Party won 303 of the 543 seats in Parliament. That was well over the 272 seats it needed to rule on its own.

This time, exit polls released over the weekend suggested that the B.J.P. would once again easily win more than 272 seats. But as of early Tuesday afternoon, official voting results indicated that it would win about 240 seats instead.

Winning that much support — 44 percent of the seats in Parliament’s lower house — is an impressive feat in India or any other country. And the new math should not prevent Mr. Modi from securing a third consecutive term as prime minister.

But the dip in the B.J.P.’s electoral support, far short of Mr. Modi’s goal and his last electoral performance, will likely have political ramifications.

At a minimum, the B.J.P. will have to depend more on the junior members of its existing multiparty alliance. Two of the most prominent parties do not share Mr. Modi’s Hindu-first agenda.

And if the governing alliance does not win a majority, the B.J.P. will be able to form a government only by adding new partners.

It may not come to that. As of Tuesday afternoon the alliance was on track to scrape by with a narrow parliamentary majority — far short of its target of 400 seats, but enough to stay in power with its existing members.

India’s Stock Market Tumbles on Close-Run Election Result (New York Times)

New York Times [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Alex Travelli, 831K, Neutral]
Traders in Mumbai started the day with a shock as India began tallying votes from a seven-week election and it became clear that the government of Narendra Modi was not doing nearly as well as expected. By the end of trading on Tuesday, the markets were down 6 percent, nearly wiping out the year’s gains.

India’s stock market had been on a tear, buoyed by economic growth and confidence that Mr. Modi, the most powerful prime minister in generations, was sure to secure a third term in office. Investors looking to India yearn for political stability and many have done especially well during the first 10 years of Mr. Modi’s pro-business leadership. Even after Tuesday’s decline, the blue-chip Nifty 50 index has nearly tripled since Mr. Modi became prime minister.

But the Indian market’s main indexes have entered choppier waters on the way to the election.

Some companies, namely those considered “Modi stocks,” fared especially poorly as the election result came into view. The Adani Group’s fortunes were always the most eye-catching. Gautam Adani rapidly became Asia’s richest man, as his infrastructure-oriented businesses worked in harmony with Mr. Modi’s plans for the country. That is, until a short-seller’s report in early 2023 accused the Adani Group of market manipulation and accounting fraud.

Adani’s stocks crashed, but within a year, as it became clear that the Indian government and many of the world’s biggest banks would be patient with the companies, they climbed back up. On Tuesday, Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship company, shed 19 percent of its value, putting it halfway between its peak and subsequent trough.

Mr. Modi has anyway won enough seats to form a new government, albeit with a much slimmer majority than forecast. Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, an investment bank, last year gamed out an even worse result for Mr. Modi, saying during an investor summit in October that if Mr. Modi were suddenly defeated, “I would expect a 25 percent correction if not more.”

Some degree of correction might be welcomed, at least among professional investors. A lot of the market’s recent growth has reflected the influx of small-time local investors buying stocks for the first time.

With global investors clamoring for access to India’s long-term prospects, it had become nearly impossible to find bargains. Christine Phillpotts, portfolio manager for emerging markets at Ariel Investments in Chicago, said India had become “the market that everybody loves to love.” That meant there weren’t many opportunities left, even though she agreed that India’s economy would keep growing robustly.

The other consolation is that, as much as investors need to know which government policies will favor which companies, India’s track record suggests that its economy is capable of growing rapidly under conditions of vigorous, multiparty democracy. Some of the fastest rates it ever clocked were achieved under a previous coalition government, during a growth spurt from 2006 to 2010.

Even Mr. Wood, who anticipated a market decline in response to Mr. Modi’s losing ground, thought that stocks “would bounce back sharply, due to the momentum” of India’s economy as a whole.

Indian election delivers stunning setback to Modi and his party (Washington Post)

Washington Post [6/4/2024 3:00 PM, Gerry Shih, Karishma Mehrotra, and Anant Gupta, 54755K, Neutral]
Indian voters have delivered an unexpected repudiation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership as electoral tallies Tuesday showed his Hindu nationalist party falling short of a majority in Parliament, piercing the aura of invincibility around the most dominant Indian politician in decades.

While Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party finished first and is still well positioned to form a government with its allies in the coming days, the BJP’s performance paled in comparison to its showing in 2014, when Modi swept to power on a wave of national anger over corruption, or 2019, when he was buoyed by nationalist sentiment over a border clash with Pakistan.

The shock result sparked feverish celebrations among India’s opposition parties and marked a rare setback for an Indian politician who had never failed to secure a majority in state or national elections over a 23-year political career. As prime minister for the past decade, Modi has cultivated an image as a popular strongman and a serial winner, and most political analysts had expected him to easily brush aside India’s enervated and poorly funded opposition parties once more.

In the run-up to this year’s election, the Modi administration froze some of the opposition’s bank accounts, jailed some of their leaders on corruption- and tax-related charges, and enjoyed almost uniformly laudatory coverage by mainstream media companies controlled by Modi allies, spurring warnings within India and abroad that truly competitive elections could be vanishing from the world’s largest democracy.

Yet Tuesday’s results showed that “India’s democracy is not as dead as we thought; that is for sure,” said Devesh Kapur, a political scientist at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “This electoral surprise shows that voters still have an independent mind. Otherwise this juggernaut would not have stalled.”

Whereas the BJP comfortably won a parliamentary majority on its own in 2014 and 2019, it now needs to work with allies to control the minimum 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha lower house needed to form a government. As of late Tuesday, the BJP was on track to win roughly 240 seats, with the 272 number firmly out of reach.

The reliance on coalition partners is likely to serve as a check on Modi’s power in the third term, Kapur said. “The judiciary, the media and civil society had been cowed down,” he said. “There will now be more checks and balances if the opposition has wind in its sails.”

Late Tuesday, Modi struck a defiant tone as he presented his leadership as the only choice “if 21st-century India wishes to progress.” He emphasized that he would form a new government and work with smaller-party leaders to govern India as a coalition, and he pledged to hit back even harder at the opposition alliance, which he described as corrupt.

“When the corrupt congregate to safeguard their political interests and transcend all limits of shame, it strengthens corruption,” he told supporters. “In the third term, the … government will decisively take every step necessary to uproot corruption.”

Even before noon Tuesday, early vote counts suggested an unexpected outcome. In a rare move, television networks typically aligned with the BJP changed the photo accompanying the party logo from Modi to the party president, J.P. Nadda.

Indian stocks dropped soon after markets opened on fears that the pro-business BJP might fall short, eventually closing down 6 percent, and companies led by Gautam Adani, a billionaire seen as a Modi ally, saw as much as a fifth of their value wiped out within hours.

For the first time in years, Modi seemed vulnerable.

“The entire party structure is built around advertising around him, but the challenge this time was that they weren’t able to come up with a set of issues that they could tie around Modi,” said Neelanjan Sircar, a political scientist at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. The government “overreached,” Sircar said. “People were uncomfortable with some of what the government was doing. Some red lines were crossed.”

In the lead-up to the election, Modi and his allies exuded supreme confidence, with BJP leaders pledging to capture 400 seats and staking the campaign almost solely on Modi’s personal appeal.

Modi’s name appeared 67 times in the BJP’s campaign manifesto, overshadowing the perennial issues of “inflation” and “jobs” — mentioned once and twice, respectively. Many government welfare programs, such as free bags of grain, were marketed as “Modi’s Guarantee.” In campaign materials, the BJP featured pictures of Modi being welcomed by world leaders such as President Biden, who has sought to cultivate ties with the Indian leader as a counterweight to China.

But as the campaign unfolded, bitter recriminations over India’s religious and caste divides, often fanned by Modi himself, overshadowed discussions about his accomplishments, including improving India’s infrastructure, introducing pro-business policies and enhancing the country’s international image.

In television interviews, Modi said he was chosen by God and stressed that he had delivered to Hindus a long-sought temple to Lord Ram, which was consecrated this year on the site of a razed mosque. At rallies, he repeatedly warned lower-caste Hindus that only he could stop the rival Congress party from scrapping India’s affirmative-action programs or snatching their livestock and wedding jewelry and redistributing them to Muslims.

In the end, it was precisely voters in the devout Hindu heartland, the BJP stronghold that propelled Modi to victory in 2014 and 2019, who appeared to reject his appeals along religious lines. The BJP lost in the district of Banswara in Rajasthan state, where Modi had called Muslims “infiltrators” in a controversial speech. The Congress and Samajwadi opposition parties were poised to capture more than half of the seats in Uttar Pradesh, the same state where Modi had consecrated the grand Ram Temple with much fanfare.

The results could cast doubt over Modi’s ability to push through the rest of his agenda. BJP officials had proposed streamlining elections by conducting state assembly polls on the same day as the national election, which could further cement the party’s power, but it’s not clear whether that change will now be enacted. On the economic front, Modi also signaled that if given a strong mandate for a third term, he could push forward with labor reforms that would make hiring and firing workers easier, help local business owners, and invite foreign investment. Those reforms may also be stymied.

But even if Modi’s personal standing is diminished, New Delhi’s growing closeness with Washington will remain a constant, analysts say.

“U.S.-India remains the most consequential relationship that India has. There is no contesting that within the Indian political system,” said Indrani Bagchi, chief executive of the Ananta Aspen Center think tank.

As Tuesday progressed, supporters of both the BJP and the opposition seemed to struggle to comprehend the surprise result. By midafternoon, BJP supporters who had milled around the party headquarters in Delhi expecting raucous celebrations with DJs as in previous years began to stream out early, only to be called back by party workers. Some party members put on a brave face and argued that a competitive election was a good thing.

“Hey, in some areas, we will grow, and in some, we will decrease,” said Rekha Singh, a member of the BJP women’s wing. “If we were running alone in a country, where would the fun be?”

Across town at the Congress headquarters, Muslim men from nearby states flocked to Delhi to watch the results in lawn chairs. Nearby, Hindu women flashed their mangalsutras — the traditional Hindu wedding necklace that Modi had warned would be redistributed to Muslims — to photographers to mock the prime minister.

After Rahul Gandhi, the Congress political scion and party leader, addressed the media in the late afternoon and pushed his way through ecstatic supporters playing drums and chanting his name, the crowd began to disperse. Nidhivan Pandey, 40, hung back to soak in the scene and distribute 50-cent copies of the Bhagavad Gita, the Hindu holy book.

A Hindu ascetic clad in saffron robes and a turban, Pandey cut an unusual figure at the headquarters of political party that promoted secularism. But he said he worried that the BJP was mixing religion and politics the way that leaders did in Pakistan, a neighboring country that he considered inferior to India.

“It’s time for the BJP rethink a key issue: If you are suppressing one community and uplifting another one, you’re doing a wrong thing,” Pandey said. “In a democracy, the mandate of the people is as important as the voice of God.”

Modi Loses Majority in Stunning Election Setback, but Is Set to Keep Power in India (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Journal [6/4/2024 5:12 PM, Vibhuti Agarwal, Krishna Pokharel, and Shan Li, 810K, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to keep power for a third term even after voters dealt the Hindu nationalist a stunning setback by denying him an outright majority following an election dominated by high unemployment and inflation.

Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will now have to rely on allies in his coalition to cross the 272-seat threshold for a majority in the lower house of parliament to form a government. It is the first election since 2014, when Modi won his first term as prime minister, that the BJP hasn’t scored an absolute majority on its own.

Modi would be only the second leader after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister, to return to power for a third straight term. Official results show the BJP winning around 240 seats. It won 303 seats in 2019.

Modi, speaking in the evening local time, didn’t acknowledge the upset and claimed a historic victory. “In our third term, the country will write a new chapter of big decisions,” he said. “This is Modi’s guarantee.”

The opposition hasn’t conceded defeat. The Congress party, which ruled India for decades but had seen its popularity plunge in recent years, was set to nearly double its seat count compared with the last general election. Its opposition alliance gained well over 200 seats, far surpassing the performance of the opposition bloc it led five years ago.

In a press conference, Rahul Gandhi, the face of the opposition Indian National Congress party, said the opposition alliance would meet on Wednesday to discuss their options. He said the result was a victory for democracy.

“The deprived and poor population of the country stood with India to protect their rights,” Gandhi wrote on the social-media platform X.

Political analysts said the election results punctured Modi’s aura of invincibility. The 73-year-old leader has long relied on his personal charisma to woo voters, and he campaigned extensively up and down the country in the months leading up to the election season.

“The results show that Brand Modi has diluted,” said Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst affiliated with the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank. “It’s a big setback.”

India’s stock markets plunged on Tuesday, after closing at record highs on Monday due to exit polls that predicted a landslide win for Modi, who had pledged to make India the world’s third-largest economy in his third term. Modi has sought to boost manufacturing in India, and convinced Apple suppliers to invest in the country. These efforts aren’t creating enough jobs for India’s young people.

There were early hints that the BJP was worried about low voter turnout amid a record-setting heat wave searing much of India. Modi began his campaign touting his economic record, but quickly pivoted to attacking Muslims and painting the opposition Congress party as pro-Muslim. In an April speech, he called Muslims “infiltrators” and “those who have too many children.”

During Modi’s time in power, he has foregrounded the country’s Hindu identity. India’s Muslims, the country’s largest religious minority, say they have been politically marginalized and at times targeted with violence as Hindu nationalist ideas became more prominent.

But attempts to fire up his Hindu nationalist base flopped in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and a political bellwether, where the opposition combined to come out ahead of the BJP, which saw its seat count plunge to the low 30s, down from 62 in 2019.

Modi’s party lost even in the constituency that includes Ayodhya, the site of a controversial Hindu temple inaugurated by the prime minister in January that fulfilled one of his key election promises. That was expected to help him clinch another majority.

Political analysts said that many people appear to have cast their ballots over unhappiness with economic issues. Some voters have questioned the disconnect between two images of India: one of a global economic powerhouse populated by glitzy billionaire moguls, and the second where hundreds of millions of people face bleak job prospects and soaring costs, leaving them reliant on the government’s free food grains program.

Mohammad Ahmed, a 42-year-old laborer from Uttar Pradesh, said he stands at the main traffic intersection in his village, along with hundreds of others, hoping to pick up daily work as a farm laborer. Over the last six years, he said, the number of people waiting at that traffic signal has increased 10-fold.

“Modi distributed free food, but gave no jobs,” said Ahmed. “In the 10 years of Modi’s rule, the rich have become more powerful and the poor more helpless.”

This time, Ahmed switched his vote to Congress. “I used to think of Modi as my father. But he let us down,” Ahmed said.

On Tuesday Ahmed had traveled to the Congress party’s headquarters in Delhi to await the results—and later was greeted with a hug by the face of the party, Gandhi. At the party offices, workers were in a jubilant mood and many chanted, “Long live the people of India.”

The results in Uttar Pradesh were particularly telling because the state has been the home of the Hindu nationalist experiment, said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy expert.

“The everyday lives of the people, the issues around unemployment, the issues around inflation, they mattered,” said Aiyar, adding that Modi may have unintentionally intensified this issue with his campaigning around a pledge to turn India into a developed economy by 2047.

As for the religious messaging, she said, people are “exhausted with Hindu nationalism as the only offering on the table.”

In the neighboring state of Madhya Pradesh, Devi Singh Malviya, a 34-year-old farmer, said Modi’s party was too keen on trumpeting India’s success on the world stage instead of fixing bread-and-butter issues that concern ordinary people. Malviya said he switched his vote to the opposition after backing the BJP in previous national elections.

“The BJP government isn’t focusing on the present problems,” said Malviya, who believes many in his village voted on similar lines. “Instead they have set goals for 2047. What has increased in the last 10 years is unemployment and prices.”

In Delhi, Khemchand Sharma, a BJP party spokesperson, noted that the party had won the largest share of seats, but would analyze the results.

“We will own up what we got right and we got wrong. That’s in our party’s culture,” he said. He said the party may be facing anti-incumbency against local candidates, rather than a rejection of the national leadership’s vision for the country.

Political experts said that the Modi government’s use of its levers of power to quash critics may have cut the party off from understanding the deep levels of economic anxiety that millions of Indians are facing.

Media outlets and civil society organizations have faced tax inquiries and investigations. The Congress party saw increased tax recovery actions ahead of the election, while the head of another opposition party, Arvind Kejriwal, was arrested on corruption charges. The government maintains investigative agencies are following due process in pursuing corruption.

When a government “silences dissent, it doesn’t actually hear what the average person is thinking except in the moment of elections,” said Maya Tudor, associate professor of politics at Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, who focuses on India.

Political experts credited the opposition gains in large part to grassroots campaigning by Gandhi, who in recent years has gone on monthslong cross-country walking tours to connect with the public. In speeches across India, he has called for more job creation and less social division.

He had also warned that Modi’s party could dramatically change the constitution if it won a two-thirds majority, a number it initially claimed it would reach, including taking away affirmative-action programs that guarantee slots in government and in universities for minority groups.

In Uttar Pradesh, a large population of India’s traditionally oppressed caste groups, the Dalits, appear to have swung strongly to the opposition this time, for both economic reasons and over concerns about Modi’s Hindu platform.

Gurmeet Singh, 18, a first-time voter from the Dalit group, said that ahead of the vote counting, he and his neighbors went to a local Hindu temple to pray for an opposition victory.

“This election is about saving our constitution and the rights it gives us,” said Singh. “Modi and BJP are actually anti-Hindu for using Hinduism for their political gains. They are also anti-India for dividing people on the basis of religion.”

Modi claims victory in India’s election but drop in support forces him to rely on coalition partners (AP)

AP [6/4/2024 11:40 PM, Krutika Pathi, Sheikh Saaliq, and David Rising, 31180K, Positive]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared victory for his alliance in India’s general election, claiming a mandate to move forward with his agenda, even though his party lost seats to a stronger than expected opposition, which pushed back against his mixed economic record and polarizing politics.

“Today’s victory is the victory of the world’s largest democracy,” Modi told the crowd at his party’s headquarters Tuesday, saying Indian voters had “shown immense faith” both in his party and his National Democratic Alliance coalition.

Official results from India’s Election Commission on Wednesday showed the NDA won 294 seats, more than the 272 seats needed to secure a majority but far fewer than had been expected.

For the first time since his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party swept to power in 2014, it did not secure a majority on its own, winning 240 seats — far fewer than the record 303 it won in the 2019 election.

That means Modi will need the support of other parties in his coalition — a stunning blow for the 73-year-old, who had hoped for a landslide victory. During campaigning, Modi said his party would likely win 370 seats and his allies another 30 seats.

He now depends on the support of key allies, including the Telugu Desam Party in southern Andhra Pradesh state with 16 seats and Janata Dal (United), which won 12 seats in eastern Bihar state, as well as smaller groups.

“Indian voters can’t be taken for granted,” said the Times of India newspaper in an editorial. “Voters have clearly indicated that jobs and economic aspirations matter. The economic message from the results is that jobs matter.”

The Congress party won 99 seats, improving its tally from 52 in the 2019 elections. Among its key allies, Samajwadi Party won 37 seats in northern Uttar Pradesh state in a major upset for the BJP; All India Trinamool Congress bagged 29 seats in West Bengal state; and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 22 seats in southern Tamil Nadu state.

The opposition INDIA coalition won a total of 232 seats.

The BJP may now be “heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, which makes them critical players who we can expect will extract their pound of flesh, both in terms of policymaking as well as government formation,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“At the very least, the result pricks the bubble Prime Minister Modi’s authority. He made this election about himself,” said Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a political commentator. “Today, he is just another politician, cut to size by the people,” he said in an article in The Indian Express daily.

More than 640 million votes were cast in the marathon election held over a span of six weeks in the world’s largest democratic exercise.

In the face of the surprising drop in the BJP’s support, challengers claimed they had also won a victory of sorts, with the main opposition Congress party saying the election had been a “moral and political loss” for Modi.

“This is public’s victory and a win for democracy,” Congress party President Mallikarjun Kharge told reporters.

Despite the setback, Modi pledged to make good on his election promise to turn India’s economy into the world’s third biggest, from its current fifth place, and not shirk with pushing forward with his agenda.

He said he would advance India’s defense production, boost jobs for youth, raise exports and help farmers, among other things.

“This country will see a new chapter of big decisions. This is Modi’s guarantee,” he said, speaking in the third person.

Many of the Hindu nationalist policies he’s instituted over the last 10 years will also remain locked in place.

Modi’s win was only the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister. Before Modi came to power, India had coalition governments for 30 years.

Congratulations for Modi from leaders of regional countries including neighboring Nepal and Bhutan flowed in, while the White House commended India for its “vibrant democratic process.”

In his 10 years in power, Modi has transformed India’s political landscape, bringing Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, into the mainstream while leaving the country deeply divided.

His supporters see him as a self-made, strong leader who has improved India’s standing in the world. His critics and opponents say his Hindu-first politics have bred intolerance while the economy, one of the world’s fastest-growing, has become more unequal.

For Payal, a resident of the northern city of Lucknow who uses only one name, the election was about the economy and India’s vast number of people living in poverty.

“People are suffering, there are no jobs, people are in such a state that their kids are compelled to make and sell tea on the roadside,” Payal said. “This is a big deal for us. If we don’t wake up now, when will we?”

Rahul Gandhi, the main face of the opposition Congress party, said he saw the election numbers as a message from the people.

“The poorest of this country have defended the constitution of India,” he told a news conference.

Modi’s popularity has outstripped that of his party’s during his first two terms in office, and he turned the parliamentary election into one that more resembled a presidential-style campaign, with the BJP relying on the leader’s brand.

“Modi was not just the prime campaigner, but the sole campaigner of this election,” said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar.

Under Modi’s government, critics say India’s democracy has come under increasing strain with strong-arm tactics used to subdue political opponents, squeeze independent media and quash dissent. The government has rejected such accusations and says democracy is flourishing.

Economic discontent has also simmered under Modi. While stock markets have reached record-highs, youth unemployment has soared, with only a small portion of Indians benefitting from the boom.

As polls opened in mid-April, a confident BJP initially focused its campaign on “Modi’s guarantees,” highlighting the economic and welfare achievements that his party says have reduced poverty. With Modi at the helm, “India will become a developed nation by 2047,” he repeated in rally after rally.

But the campaign turned increasingly shrill, as Modi ramped up polarizing rhetoric that targeted Muslims, who make up 14% of the population, a tactic seen to energize his core Hindu majority voters.

The opposition INDIA alliance attacked Modi over his Hindu nationalist politics, and campaigned on issues of joblessness, inflation and inequality.

“These issues have resonated and made a dent,” added Aiyar, the public policy scholar.

Modi set to take oath for the third time on June 8 as allies pledge support (Reuters)

Reuters [6/5/2024 4:35 AM, Rishika Sadam and Shilpar Jamkhandikar, 42991K, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to be sworn-in for a record-equalling third term on June 8, after key allies pledged their continued support a day after a humbling election verdict that saw his party lose its majority in parliament.

Modi, a populist who has dominated Indian politics since coming to power in 2014, will for the first time need the support of regional allies whose loyalties have wavered over the years, which could complicate the government’s reform agenda.

On Wednesday, two allies in his National Democratic Alliance coalition, the Telugu Desam Party, a key regional player in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, and the Janata Dal (United) which rules the northern state of Bihar, pledged their support.

"We are with the NDA, I will be attending the meeting in Delhi today," Chandrababu Naidu, the leader of the TDP, told reporters, referring to a meeting of the BJP-led alliance scheduled to take place later in the day.

The federal cabinet met on Wednesday morning and recommended the dissolution of parliament, a constitutional formality before Modi can form a new government.

Modi and his new cabinet were scheduled to be sworn-in on Saturday, local media reported.

The NDA won 293 seats in the 543-member lower house of parliament, more than the 272 needed to form a government.

Modi’s BJP won 240 seats on its own, a weakened verdict which could slow India’s fiscal tightening, ratings agency Moody’s said.

The weakened majority for Modi’s alliance could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform agenda, ratings agency Fitch said.

However, it added: "Despite the slimmer majority, we do expect broad policy continuity to persist, with the government retaining its focus on its capex push, ease of doing business measures, and gradual fiscal consolidation."

RURAL SETBACKS

With the party losing most ground in rural areas, investors say land and labour reforms, that had been expected to unlock value and growth, will probably fall by the wayside.

Newspapers said Modi’s aura had dimmed, with the Indian Express’s banner headline reading: "India gives NDA a third term, Modi a message."

Modi’s own victory in his seat of Varanasi, considered one of the holiest cities for Hindus, was subdued, with his margin of victory down from nearly 500,000 votes at the last general election in 2019 to a little more than 150,000.

But this reduced victory may not necessarily mean reform paralysis, the chairman of a government finance panel, Arvind Panagariya, said in an editorial in the Economic Times newspaper.

"Despite the reduced majority in parliament, the necessary reforms are entirely feasible. Delivering sustained growth at a accelerated pace can only strengthen the government’s hand in the coming years," he said.

The opposition INDIA alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s centrist Congress party won 230 seats, more than forecast. Congress alone won 99, almost double the 52 it won in 2019 - a surprise jump that is expected to boost Gandhi’s standing.

The INDIA alliance was also expected to meet on Wednesday in New Delhi, and discuss a future course of action.

Jailed Sikh separatist wins seat in India’s election, family wants him freed (Reuters)

Reuters [6/4/2024 12:54 PM, Shivam Patel, 42991K, Neutral]
A jailed Sikh separatist leader who stood in India’s election won a seat in parliament on Tuesday with over 400,000 votes in what aides and relatives said was a sign of public anger over the "injustice" of his incarceration.

Amritpal Singh, 31, is in a high-security prison in the eastern state of Assam, nearly 3,000 km (1,900 miles) away from his constituency of Khadoor Sahib in the northwestern state of Punjab, where he ran as an independent.

Last year, Singh said he backed the creation of an independent homeland for his people in Punjab, decades after a Sikh insurgency killed tens of thousands in the 1970s and 1980s before it was stamped out.

Sikh separatism has made global headlines in the last year as Canada and the United States have accused India of being involved in assassination plots against Sikh separatists in those countries, charges New Delhi has denied.

"People have given such a huge victory in his favour to tackle the injustice he faces," Singh’s lawyer Imaan Singh Khara said.

"He’s got all the blessings. We will try to meet him in prison in the coming days and wish that he is also freed soon," Singh’s father Tarsem, 61, said.

Sikh separatists have previously stood in Indian elections and won.

Singh was detained under a tough security law last year after he and hundreds of supporters stormed a police station with swords and firearms, demanding the release of one of his aides.

His supporters say Singh’s movement only calls for adherence to religious teachings and tackling drug use among Punjabi youth. Sikhs comprise the majority community in Punjab but constitute just 2% of majority-Hindu India’s 1.4 billion people.

"People who take up arms also know how to hold discussions and participate in democracy," said Karamjit Singh Sunam, a Singh campaign worker.

In 1984, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was shot dead by her two Sikh bodyguards over her decision to send the army into Sikhism’s holiest shrine - the Golden Temple - to root out Sikh militants sheltering there.

The son of one of her assassins, Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, a Sikh hardliner, also won election on Tuesday as an independent.

But analysts say that support for Singh and Khalsa should not be construed as backing for a separatist movement that now commands little popular support in Punjab.

"There is a possibility that this can turn into a violent and maybe a secessionist movement. For the time being it is not," said Pramod Kumar, chairperson of the Institute for Development and Communication.

Needing Help to Stay in Power, Modi Loses His Aura of Invincibility (New York Times)

New York Times [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Mujib Mashal, Alex Travelli, Hari Kumar, Suhasini Raj, Sameer Yasir, and Pragati K.B., 831K, Neutral]
Suddenly, the aura of invincibility around Narendra Modi has been shattered.

In an Indian election in which his party’s slogan had promised a landslide victory and Mr. Modi even repeatedly referred to himself as sent by God, the results announced on Tuesday were unexpectedly sobering.

Mr. Modi, 73, is set to take up a third consecutive term as prime minister, after the Election Commission gave final confirmation early Wednesday that the parties that make up his coalition had collectively passed the majority mark in Parliament. It is a feat that only one other Indian leader has accomplished, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., won far more seats than any other party.

But instead of a runaway win, the B.J.P. lost dozens of seats. It now finds itself at the mercy of its coalition partners — including one politician notorious for how often he has switched sides — to stay in power, a sharp reversal a decade into Mr. Modi’s transformational tenure.

As the results came into view, the country’s stock markets plunged. Opposition parties, newly unified in what they had called an effort to save the country’s democracy, rejoiced. And India, while extending Mr. Modi’s firm hold on power, learned that there are limits to his political potency, even as he made the election, usually fought seat by seat, squarely about himself.

Mr. Modi took a more positive view in a statement on X declaring that his coalition had won a third term. “This is a historical feat in India’s history,” he said.

For Mr. Modi, a generous reading of the outcome could be that only with his personal push could his party overcome its unpopularity at the local level and scrape by. Or it could be that his carefully cultivated brand has now peaked, and that he can no longer outrun the anti-incumbency sentiment that eventually catches up with almost any politician.

How Mr. Modi will react is uncertain — whether he will harden his effort to turn away any challenge to his power, or be chastened by the voters’ verdict and his need to work with coalition partners that do not share his Hindu-nationalist ideology.

“Modi is not known as a consensual figure. However, he is very pragmatic,” said Arati Jerath, a political analyst based in New Delhi. “He will have to moderate his hard-line Hindu-nationalist approach to issues. Perhaps we can hope for more moderation from him.”

Few doubt, however, that Mr. Modi will try to deepen his already considerable imprint on the country over the next five years.

On his watch, India, the world’s most populous nation, has enjoyed newfound prominence on the global stage, overhauled its infrastructure for the needs of its 1.4 billion people, and been imbued with a new sense of ambition as it tries to shed the legacy of its long colonial past.

At the same time, Mr. Modi has worked to turn a vastly diverse country held together by a secular democratic system into an overtly Hindu-first state, marginalizing the country’s large Muslim minority.

His increasingly authoritarian turn — with a crackdown on dissent that has created a chilling environment of self-censorship — has pushed India’s vociferous democracy closer to a one-party state, his critics say. And the country’s economic growth, while rapid, has mostly enriched those at the top.

Mr. Modi rose from a humble background as the son of a tea seller, becoming India’s most powerful and popular leader in decades by building a cult of personality, spending big on infrastructure and welfare, and tilting India’s democratic institutions in his favor.

The ultimate goal was to cement his standing as one of the most consequential prime ministers in India’s nearly 75 years as a republic and make the B.J.P. the country’s only plausible national governing force.

But the results on Tuesday pointed to a sharp turnaround for India’s beleaguered main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, which had been seen by many as irrevocably weakened after big losses in the previous two elections.

The once-dominant Congress, long positioned at India’s political center, struggled for years to find a direction and offer an ideological alternative to the B.J.P. But it and its coalition partners found traction in this election by attacking Mr. Modi’s government over issues like unemployment, social justice and the prime minister’s ties to India’s billionaires.

Last year, as Rahul Gandhi, the public face of the Congress party, sought to burnish his standing by leading long marches across India, the B.J.P. ensnared him in a court case that led to his expulsion from Parliament. He was later returned to his seat by India’s highest court, and was set to win re-election on Tuesday.

Speaking as early returns came in, Mr. Gandhi, 53, said the fight was not just against the B.J.P. It was also, he said, against all the government institutions that had stood with Mr. Modi in trying to hamstring the opposition through arrests and other punitive actions.

“This was about saving the Constitution,” he said, lifting a small copy that he had been carrying with him and displaying during speeches on the campaign trail.

Exit polls released on Saturday, after more than six weeks of voting in the world’s largest democratic exercise, indicated that Mr. Modi’s party was headed toward an easy victory. But there had been signs during the campaign that Mr. Modi was worried about the outcome.

He crisscrossed the country for more than 200 rallies over about two months and gave dozens of interviews, hoping to use his charismatic appeal to paper over any weaknesses in his party. In speeches, he often veered from his party’s message of a rising India to counter accusations that he privileged business and caste elites. He also abandoned his once-subtle dog whistles targeting India’s 200 million Muslims, instead demonizing them directly, by name.

As things stood by nightfall, Mr. Modi would need at least 33 seats from allies to cross the 272 minimum for forming a government.

Two regional parties in particular would be kingmakers: the Telugu Desam Party, in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, with 16 seats, and the Janata Dal (United) party in the eastern state of Bihar, with 12.

Both parties are avowedly secular, raising hopes among Mr. Modi’s opponents that their influence could slow down his race to turn India’s democracy into a Hindu-first state.

Some of Mr. Modi’s biggest losses came in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh in the north, with about 240 million people. His party leads the state government and had won 62 of the state’s 80 seats in the national Parliament’s lower house in the previous election, in 2019.

As counting entered its last stretch in the evening on Tuesday, the B.J.P. was leading in only 33 seats there. In his own constituency, Varanasi, Mr. Modi’s victory margin was reduced from half a million last time to about 150,000.

The loss in Faizabad constituency, in particular, told the story of how some of the prime minister’s biggest offerings had struggled to connect with voters.

The constituency is home to the lavish Ram temple in Ayodhya, built on grounds disputed between Hindus and Muslims. Its construction was a cornerstone of the nearly century-old Hindu-nationalist movement that had swept Mr. Modi to power. He hoped that its grand inauguration just before the election campaign began would both unite his Hindu support base and bring new supporters into the fold.

Some B.J.P. workers said that the party’s flaunting of the temple may have made a large section of Hindus at the bottom of the rigid caste hierarchy uncomfortable. The opposition had painted Mr. Modi as pursuing an upper-caste agenda that denied underprivileged Hindus opportunities to reverse centuries of oppression.

“Because of overemphasis on the Ram temple issue, the opposition got united,” said Subhash Punia, 62, a farmer from the state of Rajasthan who supports Mr. Modi and was waiting outside the B.J.P. headquarters in Delhi on Tuesday.

To offset potential losses in his Hindi-speaking northern stronghold, Mr. Modi had set a lofty goal for this election: to gain a foothold in the country’s more prosperous south.

He broke some new ground in Kerala, a state dominated by the political left and long hostile to his ideology. But overall in the south, he struggled to improve on the 29 seats, out of 129, that his party had won in the previous election.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for the B.J.P. in southern India was that it once again appeared not to have won any of the 40 seats in Tamil Nadu, a state with its own strong cultural and linguistic identity.

Mr. Modi had campaigned aggressively there, even visiting one coastal town for two days of meditation as the voting neared its conclusion.

“Mr. Modi’s and the B.J.P.’s antics cannot win my Tamil heart,” said S. Ganesan, a waiter at a hotel in Kanniyakumari, the town Mr. Modi visited.

Narendra Modi loses aura of invincibility as predicted landslide fails to materialise (The Guardian)

The Guardian [6/4/2024 2:52 PM, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, 86157K, Neutral]
India’s elections may return Narendra Modi to power for a third term but Tuesday’s results did not have the flavour of victory for the strongman prime minister.

Indeed, as the early counts of the votes began to roll in, it was clear this was going to be one of the most humbling moments for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) in over a decade.

The BJP went into this election, which began way back in April, with a confident swagger and the slogan “ab ki baar, 400 paar”, a target to win 400 seats – more than two-thirds of parliament, a feat only achieved once before. Modi’s return to power, with the same if not stronger majority, was referred to by analysts and pundits as almost an inevitability, given the carefully curated cult of personality that has built up around the leader and his centralisation of power over the past decade. As late as this past weekend, exit polls projected a BJP landslide and tens of thousands of ladoos [Indian sweets], were prepared in anticipation of victory parties across the country.

Yet that sweeping majority has not materialised, and instead a more complicated and diverse picture of India’s political landscape appeared. The BJP as a singular party looks set to lose over 60 seats, bringing its predicted total down to about 240 – not enough to form a majority on its own and making it dependent on its political alliance partners for the first time.

While the BJP’s alliance as a whole has likely won just under 300 seats, enough to form a majority government under Modi, it is with a far more weakened mandate than ever before. Many of its political partners have a far less hardline Hindu nationalist agenda than the BJP and several court support from Muslim voters.

It is likely to make it far harder for Modi to move forward with many of his more radical Hindu-first policies, particularly involving citizenship registration and laws accused of directly discriminating against Muslims. There is also now little chance of the BJP having the parliamentary votes needed to change India’s secular constitution, which had been a potent fear among many opponents.

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, described the results as “one of its biggest political blows for the BJP over the decade that it’s been in power”.

“Modi is still clearly a very popular political leader but he is no longer the politically invincible figure that many had assumed he was,” said Kugelman. “The question moving forward is: how will this new reality impact his governance and his way of going about things? Will he be a chastened leader and will he decide to scale back some of his ambitions?”

The results were a surprisingly sweet outcome for India’s battered and bruised political opposition, particularly the BJP’s main rival, Indian National Congress, who many pundits and analysts had written off prior to the polls as too weak and disorganised to compete with the might of Modi and his Hindu nationalist majoritarian politics.

The unwieldy coalition of two dozen opposition parties, who referred to themselves under the acronym INDIA, were not natural ideological bedfellows and came together late in the day simply to oust Modi. But after initial ego clashes, they proved more resilient and politically savvy than many gave them credit for.

Though several of the parties alleged sustained attacks by the BJP, opposition campaigns managed to capture widespread frustrations among the masses – particularly in poorer rural areas – at chronic unemployment, low wages and high inflation.

While Modi sought to distract from these issues with increasingly polarised messaging seeking to play on Hindu-Muslim divisions, it appeared that his government’s failure to create quality jobs, particularly for the vast youth population, was not an easy thing for voters to ignore – not least as Modi has long staked his political success on India’s economic growth story.

Nowhere was this picture more stark than in the state of Uttar Pradesh, which delivered one of the biggest shocks of all to the BJP. Home to more than 240 million people, India’s most populous and politically important state has been seen as a BJP bastion over the past decade, led by one of the party’s most hardline figures, the radical monk Yogi Adityanath.

Yet it was here that the BJP suffered the most high-profile losses, including Ayodhya, the city where just a few months ago Modi inaugurated the newly built Ram temple – erected on the site of a demolished mosque – that many in the BJP had believed would help deliver them a resounding victory.

Returning for a historic third term in power – a feat only achieved before by India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru – Modi is likely to face a very different political reality from the one he has been used to, and now faces a galvanised and more powerful opposition.

“For over two decades, Modi always had a very large majority to carry out his agenda without consultation,” said Subir Sinha, director of the Soas South Asia institute. “But now, Modi’s hands will likely be tied by coalition partners and it will be much harder to push through his big ticket reforms. It will be a rocky road for him ahead.”

An air of despondency greeted the results across India’s mainstream media, widely acknowledged to have been brought under the thumb of the government. But others said the results heralded a new political dawn for India.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta, an academic and columnist for the Indian Express, described the election as “a wondrous moment. The air of despondency, the suffocating shadow of authoritarianism, and the nauseous winds of communalism have, at least for the moment, lifted”.

Modi Will Feel the Heat in a Third Term. And Not Just Politically. (New York Times)

New York Times [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Somini Sengupta, 831K, Neutral]
India, the world’s most populous country, is also among the most vulnerable to climate hazards. That’s not only because of the heat and floods that global warming has exacerbated, but also because so many of the country’s 1.4 billion people are vulnerable to begin with. Most people are poor, by global standards, and they have no safety net.

Narendra Modi, the Hindu nationalist prime minister who claimed victory Tuesday for a third five-year term, will face major challenges fueled by climate change.

Heat is now an election issue, literally.
The six-week process of voting took place amid a scorching heat wave in several parts of the country. In the northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, at least 33 people, including poll workers, died of complications from the heat last week, according to government authorities cited by Reuters.

Rohit Magotra, deputy director of Integrated Research and Action for Development, called on national election officials to reschedule elections in the future to avoid such calamities. He pointed out that workers from every political party suffer in the heat, and so do voters, who often have to line up under the sun.

“I definitely see the momentum building up, and elections are unlikely to be scheduled in peak summer in future,” said Mr. Magotra, whose organization has advocated heat solutions in Indian cities.

The Election Commission this year did set up a task force to monitor weather conditions, but only after voting got underway amid abnormally high temperatures. It also sent election workers a list of heat precautions prepared by the National Disaster Management Agency. However, according to a report published in Scroll, an Indian news site, political-party campaigners were not told to do anything differently because of the heat.

While parliamentary elections are traditionally scheduled in summer in India, climate change is making summers increasingly dangerous. This year, one weather station in Delhi broke the all-time temperature record with a reading above 52 degrees Celsius (127 degrees Fahrenheit) in late May. It was the third consecutive year of abnormally high temperatures in India, all made worse by climate change, according to scientific studies of the heat waves.

Several cities and states have heat action plans, at least on paper. But as one independent analysis concluded last year, they are mostly underfunded and lack concrete ways to identify and protect the most vulnerable.

Farmers, politically powerful, are angry.
Mr. Modi’s government has faced some of the most potent opposition in recent years from farmers’ organizations. And many of their concerns are rooted in climate issues.

Their agitation reflects a deep malaise in agriculture, a major slice of the Indian economy. More than half of all Indians depend on farming to make a living. Groundwater is in short supply in many important agricultural regions. Farmers are in deep debt in many parts of the country.

On top of that, extreme weather and unpredictable rains have wrecked harvests repeatedly in recent years.

In 2020, hundreds of thousands of farmers, mostly from India’s breadbasket region of Punjab and Haryana, erected encampments outside of New Delhi and rolled their tractors into the capital in protests that turned violent. Their initial grievance was over Mr. Modi’s efforts to open up more private investment in agriculture, which the farmers said would make them vulnerable to low prices driven by corporate profit motives.

In the face of the uprising, the government backed down, a rarity for Mr. Modi, but also a move that signals the seriousness with which his administration took the protests.

Again this year, farmers marched on the capital, this time demanding higher government-set prices for wheat and rice.

The global image of India is often associated with its fast-growing economy, its vibrant cities and its huge, young work force. But a majority of its people still depend on farm incomes, most of its 770 million poor people live in the countryside, and the government has been unable to create anywhere near the number of jobs outside agriculture that its booming youth population demands. Fixing agriculture in the era of climate change is likely to be among Mr. Modi’s most profound challenges in the coming years.

“Definitely, increasing extreme weather events (floods, heat waves, storms) are the most important climate challenge facing the government,” said M. Rajeevan, a former secretary in the Earth Sciences Ministry who is now vice chancellor at Atria University in Bengaluru.

Then there’s India’s coal habit.

Climate change is driven principally by the burning of fossil fuels, the dirtiest of which is coal.

At international summits, Mr. Modi has emphasized his push to build renewable energy infrastructure. At the same time though, his government has continued to expand coal.

That’s driven by both political and economic considerations. Coal is the incumbent fuel. Public and private companies, many of them politically connected, are invested in coal. The government’s main interest is in keeping electricity prices low.

Coal remains the country’s biggest source of electricity. Coal use grew this year, partly driven by climate change itself.

Higher temperatures drive up demand for air-conditioners and fans, which drives up demand for electricity. India’s power-sector emissions soared in the first quarter of 2024, according to Ember, a research organization that tracks emissions.

Coal provides more than 70 percent of India’s electricity, with solar and wind accounting for a little more than 10 percent. And even though the government has set an ambitious target of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, coal’s influence is unlikely to dim anytime soon. According to government projections, coal will still supply more than half of India’s electricity in 2030.

Extreme Heat Threatens Health, Jobs, and Democracy in India (The Diplomat)

The Diplomat [6/4/2024 9:53 AM, Chirag Dhara, 1156K, Negative]
The world’s largest elections unfolded in India during April and May 2024, with nearly 970 million registered voters. Daytime temperatures have been scorching across India, and there are concerns the extreme heat in these two months may have played a role in the lower-than-usual voter turnout.

On May 25, during the sixth voting phase, day-time temperatures soared above 35 degrees Celsius across most of the country, with northwestern regions of Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan blistering at 45 degrees Celsius and above.

Extreme heat has blanketed India for days, with both daytime and nighttime temperatures at dangerous levels. More alarmingly, nights have offered little respite, with night-time temperatures remaining stubbornly high at 28-30 degrees Celsius across vast parts of the country, including major cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, and Chennai.

The Global Context

This year’s extreme heat in India is neither a random occurrence nor an isolated one. Globally, the last 11 consecutive months — June 2023 to April 2024 — have broken temperature records for each corresponding month.

Late 2023 and the first months of 2024 have shattered global temperature records. Among the most severe consequences of the rise in global temperatures is the surge in extreme heat events worldwide. These foreshadow severe impacts on health, lives, and livelihoods, particularly in tropical developing countries like India, with high baseline temperatures and high heat exposure.

More Hot Days in India and its Impacts

Observational records show the summer heat this year is part of a trend, illustrated by the increased number of days each year where the maximum temperature exceeds 40 degrees Celsius.

Northwest, central, and southeastern parts of India have witnessed the highest rise, with much of Rajasthan and Telangana and parts of Karnataka and Andhra experiencing an additional two weeks each year of temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Many other parts of the country, such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and the rest of Andhra, endure at least one additional week of this extreme heat.

Hot days over 40 degrees Celsius are more common in western and southern India than they used to be.

As with any environmental disaster, the impact of this additional heat is profoundly dictated by privilege. While the upper-middle classes retreat into air-conditioned refuges during extreme heat, there is little recourse for those less privileged.

Among the most exposed are essential workers such as farmers, construction laborers, sanitation workers, drivers, small business and informal economy workers (such as security guards and street vendors), and gig economy workers (such as food delivery agents).

Without proactive and well-thought-out risk mitigation, the increasing heat will place outdoor wage earners in a difficult bind: they risk kidney failure, cardiovascular diseases, and heat strokes by working through extreme heat.

However, reducing work during the hottest hours risks wage cuts and job losses. This has already manifested this summer with online commerce companies grappling with a sharp decline in the availability of delivery agents, who are forced to stop work during the hottest hours.

More Hot Nights and the Impact on Health

A more insidious trend in recent years is the persistence of high overnight temperatures. Cool night-time temperatures are crucial to enable the body to recover from oppressive day-time heat. When night-time temperatures remain high, this recovery process is hindered.

Rising mortality rates following hot nights have been documented globally. Yet, the risks posed by excessive night-time heat are often overlooked.

India Meteorological Department data reveals that the extreme night-time heat of May 25 across India is consistent with a rising trend in many parts of the country.

Hot nights over 28 degrees Celsius are more common in western and southern India than they used to be.

Once again, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and coastal parts of Andhra and Tamil Nadu have seen the most conspicuous rise, with 1 to 2 additional weeks of hot nights per year.

Those at greatest risk are the least privileged: those without air conditioning, more prominently street-dwellers. Not only do they face the most exposure, but they are also least likely to have access to adequate medical care.

The outlook is grim. Extreme temperatures are projected to rise considerably in India over the next few decades.

India’s regional climate change report has assessed a rise of nearly 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century in day- and night-time temperatures (under the moderate emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5), relative to the 1976-2005 period). This increase will severely exacerbate the already extreme conditions experienced today.

The varying manifestations and impacts of global heating make it a great unequalizer. Privilege enables luxury consumption that drives greenhouse gas emissions, and it simultaneously shields those possessing it from the worst ravages of climate change.

These observations prompt deeper questions beyond the personal: If extreme heat has indeed played a role in depressing voter turnout in this election cycle, was it shaped along lines of privilege? How might consequences such as heat-induced crop failures shape voting choices? Can these factors nudge the political trajectory of nations?

In other words, the question is whether the inequitable impacts of climate change can permeate beyond tangible aspects like livelihoods and health to more abstract realms such as democratic participation. These are complex questions without easy answers, but serve to underscore how climate change can disrupt our societies in nuanced ways.

As the world’s largest democracy, India inarguably has the greater responsibility to grapple with these questions. A start would be to move the election cycle to cooler months.

Indian Voters Have Finally Woken Up (New York Times – opinion)

New York Times [6/5/2024 2:00 AM, Anjali Mody, 831K, Neutral]
For weeks, the announcement of India’s election results loomed as a moment of dread for millions of people who cherish the country’s commitment to secular democracy.

Throughout the marathon voting process, it was considered a near inevitability that Prime Minister Narendra Modi — who has galvanized his right-wing Hindu base with assaults on India’s founding values, minorities and basic decency — would win a third straight thumping victory. So assured was his Bharatiya Janata Party of winning an even larger share of parliamentary seats that in the long buildup to the general elections it taunted opponents with the slogan: “This time, 400 plus.”

But as the election results began rolling out on Tuesday, it was as if someone snapped their fingers and India emerged from a long period of hypnosis. Mr. Modi, who recently claimed that his birth was not a “biological” event but that he had been sent by God, failed to even deliver his party a simple parliamentary majority, leaving it unable to form a government on its own. He will probably remain prime minister for another five-year term. But his spell over voters seems to have been broken, and with it “Hindutva” — the B.J.P.’s project to turn India into a majoritarian Hindu-nationalist state — may have finally hit a roadblock.

Mr. Modi has towered over India since first sweeping to power in 2014. He is now diminished. In the 2019 elections, his party won 303 of the 543 seats. His government, which also included 50 parliamentarians from minor coalition partners, ran roughshod over the opposition. This time Mr. Modi’s party has secured a far fewer 240 seats, but will be able to form another coalition government with the help of partners who are needed more than ever. The opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance — formed by the once-dominant Indian National Congress and more than two dozen mostly regional parties — nearly equaled the B.J.P. tally despite a deeply unfair electoral playing field.

During its 10 years in power, Mr. Modi’s party has, in the style of authoritarian regimes, captured or subverted nearly every significant institution in India. One of the richest political parties in the world, it created a fund-raising mechanism — declared unconstitutional by India’s Supreme Court earlier this year — to take advantage of anonymous political donations. The party has gone after its rivals using government agencies, tying them up in endless investigations, freezing party bank accounts and even jailing two chief ministers from opposition-controlled states in the run-up to the vote. The B.J.P. has used its power, money and pressure to split other political parties and engineer defections. It has effectively turned major television broadcasters and newspapers into propaganda arms, financially rewarding those who play ball and turning enforcement agencies on those who do not.

The government-controlled media treated the election as a contest between a predestined, natural winner and a bunch of wannabes. In the end, the opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance, with the Congress party’s Rahul Gandhi as its national face, won over voters who had suffered the consequences of Modi’s governance failures and the misinformation it propagated through the media.

The young alliance shattered Mr. Modi’s aura of invincibility with a back-to-basics message that focused on the prime minister’s failure to deliver even minimal economic gains for many citizens, who face historically high unemployment, rising prices and growing inequality even while financial markets have boomed.

To have hope in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance might have felt like a leap of faith. But its performance in the election is an important declaration that there are still parties in India that are, despite their differences and the culture of fear that has helped to sustain Mr. Modi, united by a commitment to constitutional values and the will to stand against Hindutva. The alliance encompasses a wide national political base, including in states that are significantly more socially and economically advanced than many of those controlled by the ruling party. An I.N.D.I.A. alliance that can build on its success and stand up to Mr. Modi will be good news for the country.

Earlier this year, Mr. Modi, playing the priest-king, inaugurated a new Hindu temple in the pilgrimage city of Ayodhya. It was the culmination of a Hindu right-wing campaign to build a temple on the site of a centuries-old mosque that was illegally demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992. The structure was supposed to represent the victory of Hindutva and the marginalization of India’s 200 million Muslims — who have been vilified by Mr. Modi and violently attacked by Hindu mobs — and ensure that Hindu voters would carry him to an easy victory. But even with the temple — plus a new airport near Ayodhya, new roads and a revamped railway station to bring in worshipers — his party lost the parliamentary seat of the Faizabad constituency, where Ayodhya is located.

As the I.N.D.I.A. coalition’s campaign focused attention on Mr. Modi’s governance failures and the B.J.P.’s goal of changing the country’s inclusive constitution, the prime minister scraped the bottom of the barrel, going beyond even his usual dog whistles and portraying the opposition as poised to essentially hand the country over to Muslims. Yet Mr. Modi’s ramped-up anti-Muslim rhetoric appears to have not helped him — and may have even hurt him. Mr. Modi himself retained his parliamentary seat, but by a narrower margin than in the last election.

The I.N.D.I.A. coalition has cut Mr. Modi down to size and reopened the country’s political space. Mr. Modi will remain in power. But there is cautious hope that his government, dependent for survival on coalition partners who do not espouse Hindutva, will have less latitude to undermine democracy, or terrorize Muslims and government critics, and that parliament and state institutions such as the courts will once again function as they should.

On the ground, the changes wrought by Mr. Modi’s Hindutva movement over the last 10 years have not been uprooted; there is much work to be done. But supporters of a secular democratic India can now breathe a bit easier.

NSB

Maldives faces fight with Congress over Israeli ban (Axios)

Axios [6/4/2024 4:17 PM, Andrew Solender, 15847K, Negative]
U.S. lawmakers are crafting legislation aimed at stopping the Maldives from banning Israeli passport holders from entering the country, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The tiny, Muslim-majority archipelago and luxury tourist destination this week became the first country since the Oct. 7 attack to announce plans to institute such a passport ban in response to the war in Gaza.

Driving the news: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) is developing legislation that would condition U.S. aid to the Maldives on allowing Israeli passport holders into the country, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

Gottheimer, one of Israel’s most steadfast defenders in Congress, is working with colleagues in both parties on the bill, which will be called the Protecting Allied Travel Here (PATH) Act, the source said.

Catch up quick: The office of President Mohamed Muizzu said in a statement Sunday that the Maldives would impose the ban on Israeli passport holders following a recommendation from his cabinet.

Muizzi also appointed a special envoy to "assess Palestinian needs" and set up a fundraising campaign to provide aid to Gaza in a campaign called "Maldivians in Solidarity with Palestine."

Nearly 11,000 Israelis visited the country last year, accounting for 0.6 percent of the Maldives’ foreign tourist arrivals, according to the Times of Israel.

The Maldives joins 27 other Musli-majority countries with longstanding bans on Israeli passport holders.

What he’s saying: "Taxpayer dollars shouldn’t be sent to a foreign nation that has banned all Israeli citizens from traveling to their country," Gottheimer said in a statement.

"Not only is Israel one of our greatest democratic allies, but the Maldives’ unprecedented travel ban is nothing but a blatant act of Jew hatred. They shouldn’t get a cent of American dollars until they reverse course."

By the numbers: The U.S. sent roughly $36 million in financial assistance to the Maldives between 2019 and 2023, according to the U.S. Agency for International Development and the State Department.

The funds are to "strengthen democratic institutions, civil society, fiscal transparency, maritime security, counterterrorism, and law enforcement," per the State Department.

The dark side of the Maldives (The Telegraph)

The Telegraph [6/4/2024 1:41 PM, Robert Jackman, 29812K, Neutral]
With tourism responsible for 90 per cent of its tax revenue, the Maldives is keener than most to welcome international visitors. Each year the tiny island nation (population 524,000, or roughly the size of Manchester) spends tens of millions promoting itself with one simple message: come on in – if you can afford it.

Now that offer comes with a caveat: no Israelis allowed. This weekend, Mohamed Muizzu, the country’s sixth elected president, announced to the world that his government would pass new legislation to ban anyone entering the Maldives on an Israeli passport.

The move is part of Muizzu’s wider push to bolster his pro-Palestinian credentials in the face of the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

According to Maldivian government numbers, around 11,000 Israelis visited the Maldives last year, accounting for 0.6 per cent of total arrivals.

While the move might be blatantly discriminatory, it probably isn’t causing tourism bosses to lose sleep just yet – even if some Jewish campaigners have pushed for a wider boycott on social media.

But could it backfire in the long run?

For the average tourist, the Maldives remains synonymous with high-end lagoon resorts, peppered with dreamy overwater bungalows and stylish beachside restaurants. Yet away from the private islands and honeymoon jaunts sits the real Maldives: a hardline Islamic state with tempestuous politics.

For years, the country has sought to keep these worlds separate. But has it now shown its hidden side?

This duality may even be a surprise for people who have visited the Maldives, many of whom will have flown into Male’s charmingly ramshackle airport to find themselves met by reps ready to whisk them off to an island resort.

But how many of the tourists sipping their cocktails by their overwater bungalows realise that, on the other side of the blue waters, they could be fined or even flogged for doing the same thing?

Funnily enough, it isn’t something that most resorts or brochures care to mention. But with the country in the headlines for its anti-Israeli stance, could it inadvertently draw attention to “real” Maldives?

A country where everything from conservative dress codes to public displays of affection and same-sex relationships (both banned) are enforced by criminal law, and where politics occasionally spills over into violence.

In his excellent book The Maldives: Islamic Republic, Tropical Autocracy, the British journalist JJ Robinson (who edited the country’s only independent, English-language newspaper) compares Maldivian politics, at least to outsiders, to an episode of Game of Thrones.

Rather than classic left-right divides, parties are based on personal vendettas, with administrations seeking to weaponise the levers of power against their opponents.

In recent years, the country’s politics appear to have taken on a more strident and nationalistic turn to outsiders. “Recent developers have definitely focused more on prioritising the Maldives’ own interests and sovereignty,” says Viraj Solanki, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies which has hosted security dialogues across South Asia and the wider region.

Indeed, in the run-up to last year’s presidential election, current president Mohamed Muizzu rallied behind a Trump-esque “Maldives First” platform, campaigning against the Indian military’s longstanding presence in the country’s waters.

By contrast, Muizzu has been more welcoming to China, which has not gone unnoticed by the US.

Could populism pose a threat to tourism? Unlike in Mallorca and the Canary Islands, Maldivians aren’t taking to the streets to complain about an influx of visitors (most of whom jet off to their bubble islands within hours of arriving and aren’t going to be partying in the local restaurants).

That said, the avenues for angry protests are somewhat more limited in the Maldives than in a European social democracy.

Then there’s the elephant in the room: terrorism. “On a per-capita basis, more foreign recruits to the Islamic State came from the Maldives than any other country,” says Viraj Solanki.

Indeed earlier this year, the Maldives repatriated 21 of its citizens (mainly women) who had gone to join Jihadi groups in Syria. They will now undergo anti-extremism training.

Given all that, do tourists need to think twice about the Maldives after all? For all the geopolitical intrigue, for the vast majority of visitors, it’s probably plus ça change.

Cocooned on your own island, ignoring Maldivian politics is as easy as tuning out of Westminster or Holyrood. Sure, it might not be the most enlightening approach to tourism, but it evidently works for plenty.

But in recent years more tourists have been looking to escape the highly-curated luxury of the corporate resources. The Maldivian government, which oversees the entire tourism industry, has given locals permission to open small guesthouses on residential and fishing islands, offering visitors the chance to see real Maldivian life.

While popular with backpackers, this hasn’t been entirely without incident. In 2014, there was a skirmish when an Israeli surfer staying on the island of Thulusdhoo vandalised a poster equating the Star of David with the swastika. The action drew an angry backlash from locals with the police choosing to evacuate a group of Israelis for their safety.

Incidents like this have even prompted one Maldivian human rights activist to bravely sound the alarm about anti-Semitism. Ahmed Shaheed served as the Maldives’ foreign minister before becoming a UN special rapporteur on religious freedoms. In 2022, he told a reporter: “I grew up in a country which wasn’t anti-Semitic to begin with, but then turned anti-Semitic over time.”

As well as the small fishing islands, there are the two city islands of Male and Hulhumale: the equivalent of the Maldivian mainland. When I visited the Maldives in late 2022, I made a point of bookending my resort trip with a stop on each. With 500,000 or so residents in just a few square miles, they’re as far away from the typical “fly-and-flop” experience as you can get. All the better, I thought.

Hulhumale in particular may have passable hotels and very good South Asian restaurants. But tourists get none of the exemptions that they do on the resorts. Anyone caught with alcohol faces arrest and deportation and public displays of affection, even between married couples, could result in prosecution or an angry blowback from locals. Trudging through the moped-dominated streets, you often feel like an inconvenience at best.

A small handful of visitors have had far worse. In 2021, a British tourist was caught in the blast of an explosion intended to assassinate former Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed. One year earlier, three foreign visitors (two Chinese and one Australian) were attacked by a knife-wielding terrorist affiliated with a local offshoot of the Islamic State. Luckily, all four survived.

Tales of knife attacks in particular, no matter how rare, will inevitably send a shiver down the spine of any traveller. Yet visitors can at least make a cynical appraisal of the situation: given that tourism accounts for one third of the Maldives’ GDP, its government isn’t going to take any threats to travellers lightly. Anyone joining a terrorist group faces decades in prison or even death.

Still, while the risks to tourist safety may be reassuringly low, the Maldives remains a complicated and conflicted country, at least to anyone who bothers to do their homework. To bring that fact to the attention of the world, all for the reward of scoring some anti-Israel points, seems a serious own goal.

Central Asia

Reviving Uyghur Culture In Kazakhstan, One ‘Reel’ At A Time (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [6/4/2024 12:23 PM, Reid Standish, 1530K, Neutral]
Said Maximov is trying to bring a Silicon Valley start-up mindset to help solve the problem of keeping Uyghur culture and traditions alive in Central Asia.

The 36-year-old entrepreneur with a background in public relations and marketing founded Digital Yurt in late 2022 in hopes of finding a contemporary solution for maintaining traditions, increasing knowledge of the Uyghur language, and fostering a community for an ethnic group with a legacy of repression that continues today -- namely in China.

So Maximov did what any modern-day millennial would do: He opened an Instagram account.

"I started with something simple," he told RFE/RL at the Unlock 2024 conference held on May 30-31 in the Czech capital, Prague. "Our biggest target audience is the youth -- and social media is how you reach them. The problem is that it’s about entertainment there, not really dealing with problems that a community like ours is facing."

But Maximov has slowly managed to find a way to break through.

What began with "reels" -- short, fast-paced videos that are friendly to Instagram’s algorithmic platform -- has evolved into a real-life community of hundreds, with nearly 50 regular contributors to Digital Yurt’s work and an ever-expanding online footprint.

Since launching, it has grown into in-person events, raised money for an incubator to help fund Uyghur-owned businesses in Kazakhstan, and created a Montessori kindergarten in Almaty -- the country’s largest city -- to boost literacy in the Uyghur language.

It’s part of a wider strategy meant to adapt and modernize old practices that Maximov says is at the heart of what Digital Yurt is trying to accomplish.

"The youth still want to know and engage with their history, but maybe those traditional events or places with the older generation aren’t really appealing to them. That’s why we went digital," he said. "It’s been exciting, but at the same time it’s also been difficult because I didn’t know how many problems our community is facing in modern society."

‘We Can’t Ignore It’

The most pressing of those problems for Uyghurs has been unfolding on the other side of Kazakhstan’s eastern border in China.

Xinjiang Province is home to about 12 million Uyghurs, and since 2017 -- when Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued an order saying all religions in the country should be Chinese in orientation -- there have been repeated crackdowns, with many activists and human rights groups saying it is part of a deliberate campaign to eradicate Uyghur culture.

That repression has also extended to other, mostly Muslim, minorities in Xinjiang, with a dragnet sweeping up more than 1 million Uyghurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and other groups in detention camps and prisons. China has also been accused of targeting Muslim religious figures and has put bans on religious practices in the region, as well as destroying mosques and tombs.

In 2022, the UN’s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights said China had committed "serious human rights violations" against Uyghurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and other Muslim minorities, including forced labor, mass internment, and forced birth control, which may amount to crimes against humanity.

"Given our history and what is happening even now, some people from the community still think it’s best to stay silent and that it can be dangerous to be seen, and I’ve even had some say this to me," Maximov said. "But what’s happening [in China] is real and we can’t ignore it."

While present-day Xinjiang, often referred to as East Turkestan in the Uyghur community, is home to the bulk of the population, the countries of Central Asia are also home to Uyghur minorities. Kazakhstan alone has more than 200,000 ethnic Uyghurs, and the global community has extended to places like Turkey and across Europe and North America as Uyghurs have fled mounting repression from Beijing.

China has justified its crackdowns as a response to episodes of violence in the 2000s, saying the camp system it launched was necessary to prevent terrorism and root out Islamist extremism. But Beijing has also been accused of exaggerating the threat in order to justify the repression of Uyghurs.

For The New Generation

As an ethnic Uyghur born and raised in Almaty, Maximov says these views are present in Kazakhstan, especially as the government has grown closer to China in recent years.

"Part of the mission is also to educate, and we don’t want people to follow the Chinese narrative that we’re terrorists, which is absurd," he said. "The Chinese Communist Party has tried to make an example of my people to show others what happens if you resist them."

Maximov is emphatic that Digital Yurt does not have a political agenda or any political ambitions, but he says that given history and what Uyghurs are facing today in China, it’s not an easy separation.

"Even though we’re doing work on empowering youth, making people more tech-savvy, teaching the language, and improving business skills, it still sounds political to some people simply because it’s aligned with being Uyghur," he said.

As Digital Yurt continues to grow, Maximov says he hopes he can find new ways to keep bringing Kazakhstan’s Uyghur community together and also engage with the wider diaspora spread out around the world.

While shared history -- both achievements and its darker chapters -- are part of the identity, he hopes to find new ways to "make Uyghur culture cool," including ideas for a fashion brand to merge modern streetwear with traditional garments.

But Maximov says his main goal for the future is to keep preserving the traditions and language from the older generations so that the new ones can interact, whether online or in-person.

"The older generation that knows the language and traditions is still here but maybe not for long," he said. "It can be easy for us to be separated from our Uyghur identity, so we need to keep our culture alive."

Tajikistan Set To Outlaw Islamic Hijab After Years Of Unofficial Ban (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [6/4/2024 1:45 PM, Farangis Najibullah, 1530K, Neutral]
After graduating from medical school, Salomat had to settle for working as a masseuse at a Dushanbe beauty salon because hospitals in Tajikistan don’t allow the Islamic hijab, which she wears.

“I had to choose between my career and my faith, and I chose the latter,” says Salomat, who didn’t want to give her full name. “I did remove my hijab in college because I thought that was temporary. But a career is for life.”

Thousands of women in Tajikistan have faced similar choices in recent years as the staunchly secular government in Dushanbe has been increasingly cracking down on the Islamic head scarf at schools and workplaces.

Despite the effective ban on the hijab in public institutions, there is no legislation in Tajikistan that outlaws Islamic attire. But that is about to change.

Parliament in the predominantly Muslim nation of some 10 million has adopted draft amendments to the law on “traditions and celebrations” that will ban the wearing, importing, selling, and advertising of “clothes alien to Tajik culture,” a term widely used by officials to describe Islamic clothing.

Lawmakers also approved new amendments to the code of administrative violations, which includes hefty fines for offenders. The code did not previously list the wearing of a hijab or other religious clothing as violations.

Tajik lawmaker Mavludakhon Mirzoeva told RFE/RL’s Tajik Service that the amended version of the draft bill “includes a ban” on clothes deemed foreign to Tajik culture.

The penalties for offenders vary from the equivalent of $740 for individuals to $5,400 for legal entities. Government officials and religious authorities face much higher fines of $3,700 and $5,060, respectively, if found guilty.

The draft bills have been sent to the upper house of parliament and are widely expected to be approved and signed into law by authoritarian President Emomali Rahmon.

Freedom Of Choice

Several Dushanbe residents told RFE/RL that they don’t support a ban on certain types of clothes because they believe people should be free to choose what clothes they want to wear.

“It’s important to have the freedom to choose our own clothes. There shouldn’t be a law ordering us what to wear,” said Munira Shahidi, an expert on art and culture.

Most Tajiks believe the new amendments would only legalize a “ban that has already been in place for years.”

“I had to give up my hijab 15 years ago when I got my [dream] job,” said a 42-year-old university teacher in the northern city of Khujand. “It was a tough decision. I wear long-sleeved costumes and cover my head with a kerchief tied on the back of the head.”

The woman, who didn’t want her name published, said she initially turned down a job offer from the university because it required her to remove her Islamic head scarf.

“For five years I worked at various places that didn’t mind me wearing the hijab, but I didn’t like those jobs and, besides, the ban on the hijab kept expanding,” she said. “When the next time I got the opportunity for the university job, I accepted it.”

The Tajik authorities’ clampdown on the hijab began in 2007 when the Education Ministry banned both Islamic clothing and Western-style miniskirts for students.

The ban was eventually extended to all public institutions, with some organizations demanding that both their staff and visitors remove their head scarves.

Local governments set up special task forces to enforce the unofficial ban, while police raided markets to detain “offenders.” But authorities reject numerous claims from women who said they were stopped on the street and fined for wearing the hijab.

One recent video purportedly shows hospital staff in southern Tajikistan “helping” two hijab-wearing visitors to style their headgear in a “Tajik way” -- tying it behind their heads as a kerchief.

The government in recent years conducted a campaign to promote Tajik national dress. On September 6, 2017, millions of cell phone users received text messages from the government calling for women to wear Tajik national clothes. The messages stated that “Wearing national dress is a must!” “Respect national dress,” and “Let us make it a good tradition to wear national clothes.”

The campaign culminated in 2018 when the government introduced a 376-page manual -- The Guidebook Of Recommended Outfits In Tajikistan -- which outlined what Tajik women should wear for different occasions.

Tajikistan has also unofficially banned bushy beards. Thousands of men in the past decade have reportedly been stopped by police and had their beards shaved against their will.

Uzbekistan reports a big decline in Russia-bound labor migrants (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [6/4/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
In terms of the movement of people, there seems to be a lot more coming than going in Uzbekistan these days. Officials in Tashkent are reporting a surge in tourism and a steep decline in labor migration.

Uzbek media is reporting the annual number of Uzbek labor migrants seeking work in Russia has fallen to about 1 million from an average in excess of 4 million a decade ago. According to presidential spokesman Sherzod Asadov, the decline reflects “the effectiveness of ongoing economic reforms.” President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s administration has also implemented a new regulatory framework designed to better manage labor flows, expand state support for unskilled laborers, and steer job seekers toward higher paying positions outside of Russia.

Elsewhere, official data in Kyrgyzstan also indicates the number of citizens seeking work abroad has declined. In April of this year, the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry reported that over 655,000 Kyrgyz nationals were living abroad, most of them labor migrants. During the same month in 2022, over 837,000 citizens were living and/or working abroad.

Back in Uzbekistan, a presidential press service statement indicated that the country could attract up to 11 million tourists this year, generating potentially $2.5 billion for the economy. In 2019, prior to the Covid pandemic, Uzbekistan attracted 6.75 million tourists.

Mirziyoyev met with Uzbek industry representatives on June 3, after which he agreed to establish a business council for the promotion of tourism.

Authorities are additionally planning an advertising campaign to promote Uzbekistan as a tourist destination. Part of the promotional strategy will involve state-sponsored tours for social media influencers with mass audiences. State agencies are also examining ways to simplify the system for obtaining electronic visas, and to develop apps that make it easier for tourists to get around, according to the presidential statement.

Uzbek Islamic Legal Authority Apologizes For ‘Careless’ Cryptocurrency Fatwa (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [6/4/2024 12:48 PM, Staff, 1530K, Negative]
Uzbekistan’s highest Islamic authority has revoked a fatwa against cryptocurrency, blaming “carelessness” for its appearance online and saying it is still studying the issue.

The Fatwa Center of the Spiritual Directorate of Uzbekistan’s Muslims had originally said in a June 3 post on its website that cryptocurrencies do not meet Shari’a law standards for money.

The body’s Fatwa Center cited volatility in cryptocurrency prices and “signs of gambling” in crypto culture as a basis for deeming it haram, i.e. forbidden by Islamic law.

The center added that “no country in the world produces cryptocurrency and it is not officially recognized anywhere.” (El Salvador has officially recognized Bitcoin as legal tender).

Moreover, many governments around the world permit and regulate cryptocurrency mining -- the energy-intensive, computer-powered, cryptographic process by which cryptocurrencies are created.

The Fatwa Center added that spiritual authorities in a number of countries -- including Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan -- have all issued guidance against cryptocurrencies.

With more than 90 percent of Uzbekistan’s 35 million population identifying as Muslims, the opinions of the Spiritual Directorate of Uzbekistan’s Muslims, also known as the muftiate, carry weight.

But they have no legal force and its clerics operate under the close watch of the government, which has created a comprehensive set of regulations for the crypto sector, which it views as a source of investment and revenue.

Late on June 3, the Fatwa Center released an apology on Telegram for the would-be ruling, which it attributed to “carelessness” and “technical reasons.”

“It should be noted that the director of the Fatwa Center, Sheikh Nuriddin Kholiknazar, and his deputies are currently performing the hajj,” the body said, referring to the pilgrimage to Mecca prescribed as a religious duty for Muslims. It added that “research on [cryptocurrencies] has yet to be completed.”

As of the beginning of 2023, residents of Uzbekistan can legally engage in crypto transactions but only through licensed providers.

Changes were subsequently made to the Criminal Code that would penalize citizens buying and selling cryptocurrencies on foreign exchanges such as Binance.

In an interview with the business news website Spot.uz last week, the deputy director of the National Agency for Advanced Projects (NAAP), Vyacheslav Pak, said there were now 14 such businesses and exchanges in Uzbekistan regulated by the NAAP.

But Pak said there are as yet no licensed cryptocurrency mining operations in Uzbekistan, despite a regulatory framework for them existing. The official explained that the country’s power deficits made it difficult for the state to green-light mining operations.

Across post-Soviet Central Asia, crypto-mining outfits, both legal and illegal, have emerged as a new source of economic enrichment for elites -- as well as a heavy burden on aging, undersupplied electricity grids.

Twitter

Afghanistan

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[6/4/2024 3:29 AM, 240K followers, 71 retweets, 352 likes]
Removing IEA from banned list demonstrates true understanding https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPNme0GX0AAahvz?format=jpg&name=900x900

Massoud Hossaini
@Massoud151
[6/4/2024 6:18 PM, 31.1K followers, 5 retweets, 9 likes]
1000 days passed since #TalibanTerrorist group closed all girls’ schools in #Afghanistan. The world is still silent, the #US $ is still flowing in, some neighbors let the #Terrorist s to invade AFG’s embassies, TB still killing innocents, people still die due to sickness & hunger

Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[6/4/2024 12:17 PM, 79.4K followers, 32 retweets, 151 likes]
My friend Sahar in Kabul today: "We passed two foreign women in the city center today. One wore a short sleeve shirt, her arms were showing, and no mask. But we’re forced to wear face masks and thick clothes in this summer heat. We laughed! What a lucky life they live."

Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[6/4/2024 12:19 PM, 79.4K followers, 2 retweets, 17 likes]
The thing that many tourists and diaspora visiting Kabul forget to remember is that the Taliban (and Afghans themselves) can read within seconds that you’re not from Afghanistan. Your clothes, the way you walk. It gives it away.

Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[6/4/2024 12:19 PM, 79.4K followers, 1 retweet, 26 likes]
The Taliban is not going to risk being smeared on international headlines for abusing/ostracizing a foreign passport holder for what they wear/how they maneuver the city. It’s a liability. But, that doesn’t mean Afghanistan is a safe, perfect haven.

Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[6/4/2024 12:28 PM, 79.4K followers, 10 retweets, 33 likes]
A reminder that we will reach soon three years of women and girls being barred from education. A fundamental human right. This is deplorable, criminal and horrific. Half of a country’s population stunted with no end in sight. Yes, that is exactly what it is.

Jahanzeb Wesa
@Jahanzi12947158
[6/4/2024 12:38 PM, 2.5K followers, 4 retweets, 7 likes]
Zan TV, the young woman, who was about 25 years old, set herself on fire after her family arranged her marriage to a married man. The incident occurred two days ago in the center of Sang Atish district:

Jahanzeb Wesa
@Jahanzi12947158
[6/4/2024 4:37 PM, 2.5K followers, 2 retweets, 5 likes]
The sudden return of around 600,000 vulnerable Afghans from Pakistan since last September has dramatically increased the number of displaced persons in the country, placing additional burdens on already stretched resources, the NRC said

Pakistan

Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
[6/5/2024 2:54 AM, 6.7M followers, 45 retweets, 140 likes]
Participated in Pak-China Business Forum in Shenzhen where I joined top business executives from both China and Pakistan. Highlighted bilateral trade and investment potential, esp. in key sectors e.g. transfer of Chinese technology, industry & partnership in IT, agriculture, mining, steel, textiles, renewable energy etc. Assured our Chinese friends of Pakistan’s commitment to facilitating investors, ensuring safety and security of Chinese individuals, projects and investments in Pakistan. Mutually rewarding B2B cooperation holds the key to a bright future for our peoples.

Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
[6/5/2024 12:40 AM, 6.7M followers, 78 retweets, 241 likes]
Today, on the occasion of #WorldEnvironmentDay, let us join hands to safeguard and preserve our environment, not only for the well-being of people but also for the survival of our planet. Though we cannot turn back time, we can certainly make a significant impact on the health and sustainability of our environment by taking proactive steps towards endeavors to nurture and cultivate forests, revive and replenish dwindling water sources, and rehabilitate and revitalize exhausted soils.Together, let us embrace this responsibility and work towards a better and sustainable future for our planet. The time for action is now! #GenerationRestoration

Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
[6/4/2024 7:30 AM, 6.7M followers, 427 retweets, 1.3K likes]
Landed in Shenzhen on the first leg of my official visit to China at the invitation of the Chinese leadership. Impressed by the city’s skyline and development that symbolizes modern day China. Looking forward to my engagements with the provincial authorities, business community and industry giants here before proceeding to Beijing for official talks with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and other Chinese leaders and high officials.

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[6/5/2024 1:21 AM, 81K followers, 9 retweets, 24 likes]
South Asia is currently experiencing one of its most severe heatwaves, with temperatures hitting 52 degrees Celsius in parts of Sindh, Pakistan. According to IQAir, cities in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have the worst air quality globally; air quality in Pakistan was more than 14 times higher than the WHO PM2.5 annual guideline in 2023. This #WorldEnvironmentDay, @amnesty asked young climate activists about the most important climate challenges in their country, Pakistan. #ClimateJusticeNow https://x.com/i/status/1798223626778349883

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[6/5/2024 1:22 AM, 81K followers, 2 retweets, 7 likes]
Amnesty International has previously noted the impact of heatwaves on the right to health in Jacobabad and Lahore, Pakistan. Read our research report from 2023: https://amnesty.org/en/documents/asa33/6823/2023/en/. #ClimateJusticeNow #WorldEnvironmentDay

India

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[6/4/2024 10:01 AM, 98.4M followers, 26K retweets, 145K likes]
Andhra Pradesh has given an exceptional mandate to NDA! I thank the people of the state for their blessings. I congratulate @ncbn Garu, @PawanKalyan Garu and the Karyakartas of @JaiTDP, @JanaSenaParty and @BJP4Andhra for this emphatic victory. We will work for the all-round progress of AP and ensure the state prospers in the times to come.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[6/4/2024 10:00 AM, 98.4M followers, 20K retweets, 144K likes]
Thank you Odisha! It’s a resounding victory for good governance and celebrating Odisha’s unique culture. BJP will leave no stone unturned in fulfilling the dreams of people and taking Odisha to new heights of progress. I am very proud of all our hardworking Party Karyakartas for their efforts.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[6/4/2024 9:55 AM, 98.4M followers, 38K retweets, 216K likes]
People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India’s history. I bow to the Janata Janardan for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people. I also salute all our Karyakartas for their hard work. Words will never do justice to their exceptional efforts.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/4/2024 12:48 PM, 3.1M followers, 2.1K retweets, 18K likes]
Thank the people of Andhra Pradesh for blessing the NDA with a decisive mandate in the assembly elections. Congratulate @ncbn ji, @PawanKalyan ji and their cadres. The hardwork of @BJP4Andhra Karyakartas is also deeply appreciated. Confident that PM @narendramodi’s leadership will bring fruits of development to Andhra Pradesh.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/4/2024 12:34 PM, 3.1M followers, 1.4K retweets, 17K likes]
Congratulate the people of Odisha for giving BJP a historic victory in the state. Under leadership of PM @narendramodi, confident that Odisha will reach new heights of development and prosperity. Felicitations to all Karyakartas of @BJP4Odisha for their tireless efforts.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/4/2024 11:02 AM, 3.1M followers, 4.1K retweets, 36K likes]
The mandate given by the nation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to lead an NDA government for a third successive term is a historic one. It is a victory for our democracy as much as for our people centric policies. Congratulate PM @narendramodi, @BJP4India leadership and our countless Karyakartas. Modi 3.0 will set us on the path to Viksit Bharat. Just as we will establish ourselves as Vishwabandhu Bharat in the eyes of the world.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 10:46 PM, 210.1K followers, 14 retweets, 165 likes]
Despite its disappointing performance in this year’s election, the BJP still won more seats than it did at any time between 1989-2009. But one can also say this was its worst performance since 2009. And because it set such high electoral expectations, its failures are glaring.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 1:32 PM, 210.1K followers, 18 retweets, 162 likes]
Several of India’s neighbors have already congratulated Modi for his election victory. Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina, who I would have expected to be the very first to do so, hasn’t yet. Will be interesting to see if we hear anything from Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 1:38 PM, 210.1K followers, 3 retweets, 48 likes]
Correction, Hasina has indeed sent congratulations. Sorry for the oversight.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 1:05 PM, 210.1K followers, 58 retweets, 489 likes]
Modi remains popular, he retains his charisma and deep mobilizing capacities, and he’s poised to return to power for an historic third straight term. But he’s lost that aura of electoral omnipotence. And that’s a big part of what’s long defined him as a leader.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 8:47 AM, 210.1K followers, 75 retweets, 516 likes]
Perhaps the biggest surprise of India’s election is the BJP’s underwhelming performance in UP-a major party bastion that’s home to a signature BJP project (the Ram temple) and led by a popular CM high up on the BJP hierarchy.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 8:47 AM, 210.1K followers, 4 retweets, 33 likes]
Will be interesting to see if this has any bearing on Yogi Adityanath’s standing within the party. He’s believed to be on a very short list of potential successors to Modi.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 6:25 AM, 210.1K followers, 51 retweets, 377 likes]
I’ve often referred to Modi as India’s Teflon leader-for a decade, political obstacles and challenges and setbacks didn’t stick and didn’t impact his success and popularity. These election results are a wake up call that such resilience can no longer be taken for granted.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[6/4/2024 6:20 AM, 210.1K followers, 163 retweets, 1.5K likes]
What a humbling moment for the BJP, for Modi, and all those exit pollsters.

Husain Haqqani
@husainhaqqani
[6/5/2024 1:05 AM, 460.9K followers, 50 retweets, 243 likes]
India’s election results remind us, once again, that mainstream media’s focus on the horserace (‘who will win,’ polls etc.) at the expense of issues (‘what do the parties stand for,’ factchecking claims & promises) does not enhance political discourse anywhere in the world.

Sadanand Dhume
@dhume
[6/4/2024 8:19 AM, 172.1K followers, 600 retweets, 3.3K likes]
Totally fair to slam Modi/BJP for performing far below expectations, but to put this in perspective:
1. BJP is on track to win roughly 2.5X as many seats as its nearest rival.
2. In any election between 1996 and 2009 pundits would have hailed 240~ seats as a major victory.

NSB

Awami League
@albd1971
[6/5/2024 1:37 AM, 638.5K followers, 9 retweets, 19 likes]
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina inaugurates the Tree Plantation campaign, National Environment Fair 2024 and National Tree Fair 2024 marking the ‘World Environment Day" #TreePlantation #EnvironmentDay #Bangladesh #SheikhHasina #ClimateChange #ClimateAction

Awami League
@albd1971
[6/4/2024 7:57 AM, 638.5K followers, 22 retweets, 77 likes]
Prime Minister #SheikhHasina said the #AwamiLeague government has created opportunities for the children of #Bangladesh to pursue their #education and flourish their talents. During AL’s tenure, specialized universities focusing on fields like #lifesciences, #aviation, #fashiondesign etc. have been established in the country. https://link.albd.org/3q614

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[6/4/2024 12:40 PM, 81K followers, 3 retweets, 5 likes]
11 years after two of the deadliest cases of corporate negligence in Bangladesh garment workers who suffered permanent injuries while assembling clothes sold by leading global fashion labels have yet to receive justice. In this interview, Taqbir Huda, @amnesty’s regional researcher for South Asia, speaks with Nazia Erum, Amnesty’s media manager, on his pursuit of corporate accountability and justice for workers in his home country Bangladesh. https://amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2024/06/the-rana-plaza-collapse-and-tazreen-fashions-fire-an-interview-with-taqbir-huda/

Moosa Zameer
@MoosaZameer
[6/4/2024 11:27 AM, 13.4K followers, 44 retweets, 74 likes]
It was a pleasure to visit the Maldivian Cultural Centre in #SriLanka. I had the opportunity to interact with the staff at the centre. We discussed ways to further enhance the services provided by the Centre.

Moosa Zameer
@MoosaZameer
[6/4/2024 6:59 AM, 13.4K followers, 56 retweets, 95 likes]
Today, I visited @MDVinSriLanka and met with the staff of the mission. Thanked High Commissioner-Designate Masood Imad and staff for their dedication and hard work. Emphasised the importance of providing quality consular services to the Maldivian Community residing in Sri Lanka.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives
@MoFAmv
[6/4/2024 1:37 PM, 54.1K followers, 13 retweets, 22 likes]
#FOSIM conducted day two of Orientation briefing for diplomats. During today’s briefing session, participants were briefed on topics such as Corporate Affairs, Economic Cooperation & Commercial Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Protocol Training as well as Addressing Legal Issues.

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[6/4/2024 10:34 PM, 5.5K followers, 2 retweets, 6 likes]
On this #World Environment Day, Sri Lanka reaffirms its commitment to safeguarding our planet. As a climate-vulnerable nation, we have taken significant strides in addressing the climate challenge, from protecting mangroves to promoting seagrass conservation. Our advocacy for climate accountability and our active role in the UN reflect our unwavering dedication to preserving the environment for future generations. Let’s unite globally to protect our shared home. #WorldEnvironmentDay #ClimateAction #SriLanka

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[6/4/2024 10:53 PM, 357K followers, 3 retweets, 41 likes]
Officials of Public Sec Min and Immigration were present at yesterday’s #COPF meeting in @ParliamentLK. IVS-GBS VFS visa matter was concluded. Our report will be presented at the earliest. As I have maintained throughout I shall not discuss substantive issues until then.

Central Asia

UNODC Central Asia
@UNODC_ROCA
[6/4/2024 10:45 AM, 2.4K followers, 2 retweets, 5 likes]
At the meeting with Maj Gen Murod Rajabzoda, First Deputy Commander of Tajikistan Border Troops, @MittalAshita, UNODC Regional Rep for Central Asia, discussed @UNODC natl. & regional border management projects. The parties highlighted the importance of enhancing border security in Tajikistan.

Bakhtiyor Saidov
@FM_Saidov
[6/4/2024 3:54 AM, 3.7K followers, 8 retweets, 20 likes]
Pleased to welcome the newly appointed Ambassador of #India to #Uzbekistan H.E. Smita Pant (@amb_tashkent) and receive copies of her credentials. We discussed our joint efforts to enhance cooperation across various sectors, including AG, tourism, transport, logistics, and more. Our primary goal is to facilitate trade and investment cooperation. Wish Madam Ambassador success in unlocking the untapped potential of our bilateral relations.

{End of Report}

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