epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Tuesday, June 11, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Taliban: Pakistan, Iran expelled over 400,000 Afghan refugees so far in 2024 (VOA)
VOA [6/10/2024 2:20 PM, Ayaz Gul, 4032K, Neutral]
The Taliban government in Afghanistan has said that the eviction of hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees from Pakistan and Iran continues unabated, with around 2,000 individuals arriving in the country daily.

“The two neighboring countries have forcibly deported over 400,000 refugees since the start of 2024, with Pakistan responsible for 75% of the deportations,” said Qari Yusuf Ahmadi, the spokesperson for the Taliban’s commission assisting and resettling returnees to their native Afghan districts.

“They are being well served here, and efforts are being made to provide them with additional amenities of life,” Ahmadi claimed.

Meanwhile, the United Nations warned Monday that recovery from years of conflict and "entrenched poverty" in Afghanistan is increasingly challenged by worsening humanitarian and economic conditions as well as a decline in foreign aid since the Taliban seized power almost three years ago.

Taliban officials have denounced deportations of Afghan migrants by Iran and Pakistan, calling for better coordination in repatriating the displaced families in line with international laws and taking into account the situation in Afghanistan.

Tehran and Islamabad maintain their deportation drives target only undocumented Afghan migrants, following laws enforced in countries around the world.

Pakistan formally launched its crackdown on foreigners residing illegally, including Afghans, last October, blaming them for a surge in nationwide terrorist acts. Nearly 600,000 Afghans have since gone back to their home country, with Pakistani officials claiming “more than 95%” returned voluntarily.

Islamabad has repeatedly clarified its crackdown is not targeted at the 1.4 million officially declared Afghan refugees being hosted by the country, nor is it aimed at nearly 800,000 migrants holding Afghan citizenship cards.

The U.N. estimates that more than 1.5 million refugees have returned to Afghanistan from Pakistan and Iran since January 2023, including voluntary returnees.

The U.N. humanitarian agency reiterated in a Monday statement that more than half of the population in Afghanistan — 23.7 million people, including 9.2 million children — need relief assistance.

The agency noted that the U.N. appealed for around $3 billion in funding to support Afghan humanitarian programs in 2024, but the appeal is only 20% funded six months into the year, hampering relief activities in the country, where 48% of people live below the poverty line.

Critics attribute the aid decline, among other factors, to the Taliban’s sweeping restrictions on Afghan women’s access to education and work.

De facto fundamentalist Afghan rulers have barred girls from seeking education beyond the sixth grade and prohibited many women from public and private workplaces.

The U.N. noted Monday that the imposition by the Taliban “of ever-more restrictive policies on women and girls’ rights and basic freedoms” have hindered their access to assistance and services and their involvement in public life.
Former CENTCOM commander to VOA: President picked ‘worst’ choice in Afghanistan withdrawal (VOA)
VOA [6/10/2024 2:36 AM, Carla Babb, 4M, Negative]
President Joe Biden picked the “worst of all possible worlds” when deciding how to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan, the former commander who oversaw the U.S. withdrawal there told VOA.

Retired General Frank McKenzie writes in a new book, “The Melting Point,” that he briefed President Biden in February 2021 on four military options on Afghanistan: one that would keep about 2,500 U.S. forces in the country and maintain eight bases; one that would reduce U.S. force numbers to 1,800 and drawdown to three bases; one that took out all U.S. forces and kept the embassy in place, and one that pulled out all American forces and the U.S. embassy.

Biden picked the third option, which attempted to keep the embassy, American citizens and at-risk Afghans in the country.

“I felt that was the worst of all possible worlds to actually pick that particular approach,” McKenzie told VOA in an interview on Monday.

In a speech explaining the decision, Biden said the U.S. could not continue the cycle of extending or expanding its military presence in hopes of better conditions for withdrawal.

“While we will not stay involved in Afghanistan militarily, our diplomatic and humanitarian work will continue. We’ll continue to support the government of Afghanistan. We will keep providing assistance to the Afghan National Defenses and Security Forces,” Biden said.

McKenzie also writes in his book that the Doha agreement, signed by then-President Donald Trump’s administration and the Taliban in 2020, was “one of the worst negotiating mistakes” by the United States. Speaking to VOA, he said the negotiations, orchestrated by then-U.S. ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, committed the U.S. to an exit timeline while not requiring the Taliban to fulfill its agreed-upon conditions.

As Trump announced the agreement, he warned, “If bad things happen, we’ll go back with a force like no one’s ever seen.”

According to McKenzie, Presidents Biden and Trump “shared one common policy objective, to get out of Afghanistan without regard to consequences.”

McKenzie said Iran and Russia now have a “marriage of convenience” and raised concerns about what Russia may be giving Iran in return for Iranian drones and missiles to use in its was against Ukraine.

He said Ukrainians should be able to fire anywhere inside Russia that’s attacking Ukraine, “but with certain limits” on areas such as Russian nuclear capable sites.

“You can’t give them a sanctuary there,” he said.

This interview had been edited for brevity and clarity.

VOA: You have a lot of criticism for the Doha agreement, which the Trump administration and the Taliban signed in February 2020. Why do you think it was, as you say in your book, “The Melting Point,” one of the worst negotiating mistakes made by the United States?

Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie: I think because we signed on to an agreement where we committed to a timeline to leave. And that’s significant if you don’t condition that agreement, and we did not require the Taliban to fulfill the conditions that were imposed on them as part of that agreement. So the agreement potentially could have worked a little bit better had we not been quite so supine in the negotiating process that followed it. And so I think that really did a couple of things that gave new life to the Taliban, because they took it as a schedule that we were leaving. I think we, across two presidential administrations, took it as a schedule for when we were going to leave, and it deflated the Afghan government.

VOA: The former President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, he has called the primary negotiator for the Doha agreements for the United States U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, he’s called him “corrupt,” “incompetent” and full of secrecy. And in your book, you have some similar descriptions of Khalilzad. You used “secretive” one time, “compartmented,” “not sharing much within the US government.” Is it fair to say that you agree with Ghani here?

McKenzie: Well, to the extent that he was highly compartmented, kept his negotiations very secret … That’s observable truth from where I sit. The rest of it, I couldn’t comment on that.

VOA: Did you feel that he always had the US interests at the center of his negotiations?

McKenzie: Great question. I think, from the way it turned out, clearly, we were not served by the negotiating that he did.

VOA: An internal White House review of President Biden’s decision to withdrawal said that Biden’s decisions were, I’m quoting them, “severely constrained” by President Trump’s Doha agreement. But you and I have talked about this in several of our discussions. The Taliban was never abiding by the commitment. So to what extent does an agreement that the Taliban is not abiding by severely constrain the Biden administration’s decisions?

McKenzie: Let’s remember that the Biden administration chose to keep Ambassador Khalilzad on as the principal negotiator. That was a decision they could have revisited. They could have changed the negotiating team. They did not elect to do that. And I think that’s a very important thing to consider when you look at the trajectory of the Doha agreement. The fact of the matter was in January 2021, when the Biden team came into office, there were a number of parts of the agreement that the Taliban were not in compliance with, and we did not choose to force it to be in compliance with those agreements.

… I believe that we got into what happened in August of 2021 because two presidential administrations, as unlike as any two in modern American history, shared one common policy objective, to get out of Afghanistan without regard to consequences: President Trump, President Biden.

VOA: You outlined four options for President Biden on what to do with Afghanistan. Your first recommendation was to keep 2,500 US forces and some special operators inside Afghanistan, maintaining eight bases, including Bagram. Your second option was to reduce to 1,800 US forces, and you said that would allow you to have a tenuous hold on three bases, including Bagram. Option three was the complete drawdown, but keeping in the embassy. And then option four was a complete pullout with no diplomatic presence. Biden chose option three, and that is the one that you said offered the “highest risk to U.S. interests.” What made you say that?

McKenzie: Because we’re leaving under this plan, we’re going to withdraw basically the U.S. military, but we’re still going to leave a large embassy platform. We’re going to leave our citizens, and we’re going to leave the at-risk Afghans, tens of thousands …so the initiative will shift to the Taliban, and we would be dependent on their good judgment and on their good nature, which we know is in either case, not a good thing for the United States. So I felt that was the worst of all possible worlds to actually pick that particular approach.

VOA: And you have blamed both Presidents Trump and President Biden for what happened in Afghanistan. … But what’s interesting is that barring an unlikely third-party presidential candidate victory, one of those two men, either President Biden or President Trump, is going to be the next President of the United States. What concerns do you have with that?

McKenzie: Well, concerns probably wouldn’t be the appropriate word. The most important thing for the U.S. military and military four-star generals is to be completely apolitical. The US military needs to be prepared to answer the legal orders of the constitutionally authorized leaders of the country and to express an opinion beyond that is, I think, dangerous to the future of the republic … If you’re a four-star officer, you bear a unique burden. It’s different, really, than any other grade of officer because of the fact you serve at the very highest levels of the US military, at the nexus, really, where policy, military operations and, in fact, politics come together. So I think it is, it’s bad for the country to express an opinion about that, and I’m not going to do that.

VOA: Iran supports Hamas in the region, Hezbollah the Houthis. They also support Russia. ... Where would Russia be in the fight against Ukraine without the support of Iranian drones and missiles?

McKenzie: So I think Iranian drones and missiles have been very helpful to Russia in their fight. They’re actually better than some forms of Russian equipment. They’ve allowed them to gain what we would call volume to their fires, and it’s very concerning. And what’s also concerning is, and I don’t have a good picture, frankly, what Russian technology is flowing back into Iran. But this is not, it’s not a freebie. These are two totalitarian nations, so any exchange of something is a quid pro quo. So we should be very concerned about what Russia may be injecting back into Iran…It’s a marriage of convenience and nothing more.

VOA: The counter-ISIS fight was largely successful because the U.S. and its partners were able to go in Syria, where the fight was. And experts say the fight in Afghanistan failed on many levels because the US was not able to go across the border into Pakistan. Now there’s a similar debate here in the Ukraine war concerning Russian forces firing into Ukraine from Russia. What are your thoughts on that? Should Ukrainians be able to fire anywhere inside Russia that’s attacking Ukraine

McKenzie: So yes, but with certain limits. So I think (limits are) not necessarily a geographic distance. I would not say, “Don’t fire further than 10 miles into Russia.” … I would argue that you need to be very careful not to attack Russian nuclear capable sites, Russian nuclear command and control facilities, things like that. Aside from that, I would say we should give Ukraine some flexibility in where they strike inside Russia, because, as you said before earlier, you can’t give them a sanctuary there. Russian command and control, conventional military control, Russian logistics and other formations are really free of danger there, and I think that has significantly hurt the Ukrainian ability to respond this latest offensive.

VOA: I want to switch to the war in Gaza. Is Israel’s battle against Hamas winnable?

McKenzie: So it’s winnable if they can fashion a way to a “day after” that makes sense. That doesn’t involve constant combat inside Gaza. And that’s going to require vision that may involve troops other than Israeli troops being in there. I think Arab troops would be perfect from being one of a number of different nations. It’s going to require significant investment, infrastructure, rebuilding, but provision of basic, basic services. But you got to ensure that Hamas is not part of that equation. I’m intensely sympathetic to the view, to the Israeli view, that you have to eliminate Hamas. At the same time. I think it’s a very high bar to say that you’re going to get rid of all of all of Hamas because it’s a revolutionary movement. There’s always going to kill 99 Hamas fighters. The 100th fighter is going to raise a bloody hand and declare the revolution. So I think that’s a problem that they set that they have to confront. They’ve done away with many of the combat formations of Hamas. There are still some left. I think they’ve been a little less successful at getting after senior Hamas leadership, because they’ve chosen to hide even when their fighters fight. And I’m sure they’re hidden deep underground, protected by Israeli hostages. And of course, the real hostages in Gaza, not just the Israeli hostages, but the population of Gaza itself, which Hamas has no interest in moving out of the line of fire.
Zahra Joya on the Resilience of Afghanistan’s Women in the Face of Patriarchy and Pressure (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [6/10/2024 12:21 PM, Catherine Putz, 1156K, Neutral]
In 2020, Afghan journalist Zahra Joya founded Rukhshana Media as an avowedly feminist outlet with a mission to bring the authentic voices of Afghanistan’s women to the forefront. While Afghanistan had, at that point, come a long way from her youth – under the Taliban’s first stint in power from 1996 to 2001, Joya attended school disguised as a boy using the name Mohammad – the media landscape was male-dominated, as were most of Afghanistan’s power structures, and she found that women’s stories and perspectives were broadly overlooked.

The following year, the Taliban completed their march back into power and Joya’s work became more important than ever. Although she was forced to flee, Joya’s colleagues remain in Afghanistan and Rukhshana Media’s work continues.

“The Taliban’s reaction to our reporting has been predictably hostile,” Joya said.

In the interview below, Joya speaks with The Diplomat’s Managing Editor Catherine Putz about the Taliban, the importance of women’s perspectives, what stories international media are missing in Afghanistan, and her hopes for Afghanistan’s future.

You were a child when the Taliban seized power the first time, in 1996, and an adult when they returned to power in 2021. A hot topic of debate is whether the Taliban “changed” between these two points in time and whether “moderates” in the Taliban could steer the group into more inclusive governance. What did you think about those discussions in 2021, and what do you think now? In your experience, have the Taliban “changed”?

We, as Afghan citizens, were aware about the Taliban’s brutal behavior even when hundreds of thousands of international forces were in Afghanistan. And we believed that this group is very extreme and will never change, and it is true.

During the [negotiation of the] Doha agreement between the United States and the group, the debate about whether the Taliban had changed since their first rule in 1996 was intense. Some observers hoped that the Taliban might have evolved to adopt a more moderate and inclusive approach to governance. Personally, I was skeptical of these claims, because in 2019 in a peace talk between Afghans in Moscow, I had the chance to have an interview with one of the senior members of the Taliban, Abdul Salam Hanafi – the first female journalist to do so. I asked him about girls’ education, his response was the same as now: that women and girls can get education according to the Sharia law. Which is a lie.

While the Taliban made some efforts to present a more moderate image internationally, their actions on the ground, particularly regarding women’s rights and freedoms, suggested otherwise. Now, after observing their rule since 2021, it’s clear that the core ideologies of the Taliban remain unchanged. Their governance continues to be marked by oppressive measures, especially against women and minorities. Despite some cosmetic changes or tactical shifts in rhetoric, the fundamentalist and authoritarian nature of their rule persists.

Can you explain what led you to found Rukhshana Media in 2020?

The idea to found Rukhshana Media in 2020 stemmed from a pressing need to amplify the voices of Afghan women and address the glaring gaps in media coverage regarding their issues. Afghanistan’s media landscape was largely male-dominated, and women’s stories were either underreported or misrepresented.

By establishing Rukhshana Media, I aimed to create a platform where female journalists could report authentically and boldly on the realities faced by women and girls in Afghanistan. It was a response to the silencing of women’s voices and a commitment to ensuring their stories and perspectives are heard and recognized. In my country, women always have been told to be silent, so I believe in the power of words and videos. I wanted to create a dialogue between Afghan women.

Rukhshana Media is an avowedly feminist outlet, where female journalists report on the reality of life for women and girls in Afghanistan. Why are these perspectives important? Why is it important to hear women’s voices on every issue, not just “women’s issues”?

In my opinion, when you live in a patriarchal country, freedom is not free for women and girls. At Rukhshana Media, we give women the opportunity to exercise their right to the freedom of expression. They should not be silent.

The perspectives offered by Rukhshana Media are crucial because they provide an authentic representation of the lived experiences of Afghan women and girls. Reporting from a feminist standpoint sheds light on the systemic injustices and gender-based violence that are often overlooked by mainstream media. It’s important to hear women’s voices on all issues, not just those traditionally labeled as “women’s issues” because women’s perspectives enrich our understanding of societal dynamics. They highlight the intersectionality of various issues and challenge the dominant narratives that often exclude or marginalize women’s experiences and contributions.

You were forced to flee Afghanistan but have reporters still working in the country. What threats do your colleagues face? What motivates them to continue reporting? What has the Taliban’s reaction been to your reporting?

Our reporters in Afghanistan face significant threats, including harassment, violence, and arrest by the Taliban. Despite these dangers, they continue to report because they are driven by a profound sense of duty to their fellow citizens and a commitment to truth and justice. They understand the critical role of journalism in holding power to account and in providing a voice to the voiceless.

The Taliban’s reaction to our reporting has been predictably hostile, as they seek to suppress any dissenting voices. Nonetheless, our reporters remain undeterred, motivated by the belief that their work is essential for a better future for Afghanistan. Additionally, we advocate for the restoration of our lost rights and freedoms.

When it comes to international media, there has been coverage of the deterioration of the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan since 2021, but little else. What stories do you think international media are missing when it comes to Afghanistan?

International media have indeed covered the worsening situation for women and girls since the Taliban’s return to power, but many other important stories are being missed. These include the broader human rights abuses, the economic hardships faced by ordinary Afghans, the plight of ethnic and religious minorities, and the resistance movements within the country. Additionally, the resilience and bravery of Afghan citizens, who continue to strive for a better future despite immense challenges, deserve more attention.

These stories are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has become a safe haven for terrorist groups. We should be concerned that a country providing refuge to terrorists will pose a global threat. For this kind of coverage, we need international media attention.

And a final question: What do you hope for the future of Afghanistan?

I hope for a future where Afghanistan is a peaceful and inclusive country, where all citizens, regardless of gender, ethnicity, or religion, have the opportunity to live with dignity and freedom. I envision an Afghanistan where human rights are respected, and women and girls can pursue their dreams without fear of repression.

My hope is that through resilience and international solidarity, Afghanistan can overcome its current challenges and move toward a more just and prosperous society. I still see fresh, young forces in Afghanistan who have the courage to stand up to the Taliban. These forces include women, girls, and men. I believe they need support to overcome the oppressive narratives of the Taliban.
Pakistan
Key takeaways from Pakistani PM’s visit to China (VOA)
VOA [6/10/2024 2:47 PM, Sarah Zaman, 4032K, Neutral]
Pakistani government officials are hailing as a success a recent five-day visit to China by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Observers, however, say that despite the usual display of warm relations from both sides, hurdles remain in improving the economic partnership between Beijing and Islamabad, largely because of Pakistan’s poor policies.

Prime Minister Sharif’s visit to China late last week comes as Pakistan is seeking more foreign investment and looking to boost exports to help with its economic crisis amid security concerns.

At a press conference Monday, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar called the visit “extremely successful and historic.”

“The fruits of the historic visit to China will reach the people of Pakistan,” Tarar said.

Sharif visited China at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Premier Li Qiang, with whom he held delegation-level talks in Beijing. Sharif also visited Shenzhen and Xi’an to help build business-to-business ties and to observe China’s advancements in agriculture, technology, and business facilitation.

China-Pakistan economic corridor

In China, both sides committed to “forging an upgraded version” of the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, by boosting construction, mining and exploration, and industrial cooperation.

Some critics say in its bid to ramp up CPEC, Pakistan is ignoring some harsh lessons from the first decade of the energy and infrastructure project.

“The corridor’s original sin was that Pakistan signed up for a large number of projects that added obligations in foreign currencies and this conflicted with Pakistan’s domestic-oriented exchange rate and industrial policies,” said economist Ali Hasanain. “Those obligations have gradually and predictably narrowed Pakistan’s fiscal space,” added Hasanain, an associate professor at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Pakistan owes more than $7.5 billion in project debt to power plants set up under CPEC. The country also owes nearly $2 billion in circular debt, or unpaid bills, to Chinese power producers.

Unable to boost exports on the back of new roads and added power generation capacity acquired through CPEC, Pakistan now faces a debt crisis where it is seeking new loans to pay past debt.

Many Pakistani economists blame Islamabad for the crisis.

Hasanain pointed to the Sharif government’s push to upgrade a crumbling cross-country railway line as an example of CPEC projects that will add to the country’s debt burden. The scope of the much-delayed Mainline-1 or ML-1 project has been reduced to bring down the cost, but the roughly $6.8 billion project is struggling to attract Chinese investment.

“While this upgradation will eventually be needed, there has been little consideration of the financial stress it will cause, and how the country will honor resultant obligations in the future,” Hasanain told VOA.

Economic cooperation

According to a joint statement issued at the end of the visit, China and Pakistan signed 23 agreements and Memoranda of Understanding, or MOUs, in a myriad of fields including cooperation on agriculture, infrastructure, industrial cooperation, inter-governmental development assistance, market regulation, surveying and mapping, media, and film.

Ammar Habib Khan, a Karachi-based business affairs expert, says Chinese firms are interested in investing in Pakistan because it is a strategic partner.

“Economic impact extends much longer into the future, maybe 30, 40, even 50 years. With a 30-year horizon or a 20-year horizon it makes sense to continue to invest in Pakistan,” Khan said, adding that the first phase of CPEC has been successful given the infrastructure development it brought.

More than 100 Pakistani business leaders accompanied Sharif on the trip that included a convention with Chinese businesses.

“There is an opportunity here to bring lots of Chinese energy-intensive industry to Pakistan where a lot of surplus power can essentially be used,” Khan said. “CPEC 2.0 will actually be more about utilizing the infrastructure that is in the country and how it can be optimized.”

Khan acknowledged that the renewed focus on CPEC would require Pakistan to first fix its finances.

The joint statement noted Beijing will encourage companies to invest in Pakistan in accordance with the market and commercial principles, signaling that it will not push firms to take unwanted risks or to give any concession to Pakistani companies.

Debt relief

Pakistan’s nearly $375 billion economy is facing a debt burden of almost $290 billion. According to data compiled by CEIC, an online economic database, Pakistan’s foreign debt is close to $130 billion.

Chinese officials say around 13 percent of Pakistan’s external debt is owed to China, but the International Monetary Fund put the figure at almost 30 percent in a 2022 report.

Experts believe China will have to restructure the debt Pakistan owes. During Sharif’s visit, however, no public statement was issued on the topic.

“The Pakistani side entered these meetings with realistically low expectations about winning concessions in the form of restructuring Pakistan’s outstanding debt to China. Some form of relief may yet come, but is unlikely to be significant,” said Hasanain.

Khan believes, even if China agrees to much-needed debt restructuring with Pakistan, it will do so quietly.

“They [the Chinese] are dealing with around 50 countries, all needing some kind of debt relief. If they [Chinese] give public statements, that basically becomes a precedence,” he said.

Security

During the visit, the Pakistani leader, along with the country’s powerful army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping for more than three hours.

The security of Chinese nationals in Pakistan is a key concern for Beijing. Five Chinese workers died in a suicide attack in northwest Pakistan in March, while at least a dozen more have died in targeted attacks in recent years.

“The fact that the army chief accompanied the prime minister shows that we are taking security issues seriously,” Tarar told the press Monday. “We did not spare any effort in satisfying China’s security concerns.”

Naghmana Hashmi, a former Pakistani ambassador to China, told VOA that Beijing is talking tough with Islamabad on the security of Chinese nationals to avoid a backlash from its own people.

“Their people ask questions, their journalists ask questions that here is our best friend and we don’t have people dying anywhere except when they go to Pakistan,” Hashmi said. “Now, everybody does not understand the politics of it so the optics of it are very bad,” the former diplomat said, reiterating Pakistani officials’ stance that adversaries want to derail CPEC.

In the joint statement at the end of the visit, Beijing appreciated Pakistan’s probe of the March 26 attack.

“[The Chinese side] … hoped that the Pakistani side would continue to make every effort to hunt down any perpetrators and make sure they receive deserved severe punishment.”

“The Pakistani side was committed to enhancing security forces deployment,” the statement continued.

Pakistan has blamed the attack on militants based in Afghanistan. In the joint statement, both sides called on Afghanistan to “firmly combat terrorism, including not allowing its territory to be used for terrorist acts.”

The ruling Afghan Taliban have rejected Pakistan’s assertion that militants based in Afghanistan attacked Chinese nationals, saying Islamabad is attempting to poison Kabul’s relations with Beijing.
China rebuffs Pakistan’s Sharif on new BRI investment (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [6/11/2024 12:21 AM, Adnan Aamir, 2M, Neutral]
Pakistani leader Shehbaz Sharif went to China hoping to land more big-ticket energy and infrastructure deals as his county reels from an economic crisis.

While Sharif and his entourage of cabinet ministers met with President Xi Jinping and other top officials in Beijing, the group left nearly empty handed after finishing a five-day official visit this past weekend.

That may be the new normal for Pakistan’s leadership as China cools on the South Asian nation and its much-hyped $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of Beijing’s globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative.

"The Chinese have become wary of putting in more money since they know it is a financial black hole due to Pakistan’s long-term poor economic circumstances," Jeremy Garlick, an associate professor of international relations at Prague University of Economics and Business, told Nikkei Asia. "China needs to maintain the facade that CPEC is working because it is supposed to be a key part of the BRI."

Last month, Islamabad requested an additional $17 billion of China-funded energy and infrastructure projects following a key meeting of the body that decides on future CPEC investments.

Before his trip, Sharif’s first to China since taking office in March, Pakistani officials had claimed that an upgraded version of the multibillion-dollar agreement would be formally launched in Beijing.

The Chinese response, however, was lukewarm. A 32-point joint statement issued this weekend revealed that Pakistan eked out few concrete gains, with only a vague mention of an upgraded economic cooperation deal.

"Earlier CPEC investments in the power sector were rushed by political needs, and might not have been optimal," said Stella Hong Zhang, a China public policy postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Ash Center.

That was highlighted by cash-strapped Pakistan’s recent call to restructure more than $15 billion in power-plant debt owed to Chinese energy producers operating power plants in Pakistan. The surprise request came as the Islamabad negotiates a $6 billion to $8 billion bailout with the International Monetary Fund.

Another aggravating factor is security. On the weekend, Pakistan committed to ensuring the safety of Chinese workers in the country and projects after a string of deadly militant attacks alarmed Beijing, casting further doubt on future investment.

Still, Sharif’s entourage managed some modest gains. China agreed to advance the Main Line 1 (ML-1) Railway project in stages. With a price tag of $6.7 billion, the ML-1 will improve Pakistan’s railway infrastructure between the southern port city of Karachi and Peshawar in the north in three phases. China has only agreed to the first phase.

There was also a deal to upgrade a portion of the Karakoram Highway that connects Pakistan with China through mountainous terrain, which is closed during winter due to heavy snowfall.

"We will not see big investments, nor will we see China [completely] withdrawing from cooperation with Pakistan," Garlick said.

Mohammad Shoaib, an assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad, said that further progress on Chinese investment in Pakistan will likely come slowly, and remain that way: "CPEC will continue to be a major enterprise in terms of rhetoric only," Shoaib said.

However, there may be potential for nongovernmental economic cooperation between the two countries, he added. "China will be interested in doing business with a growing number of enthusiastic entrepreneurs in Pakistan," Shoaib added.

Zhang, from Harvard’s Kennedy School, agrees. The Chinese "government will urge companies to seek opportunities in Pakistan," she said. "Whether such activities will bear fruit will still depend on how much Pakistan’s business environment improves."
Pakistan Cuts Interest Rate For the First Time in Four Years (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [6/10/2024 9:26 AM, Faseeh Mangi and Ismail Dilawar, 27296K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s central bank lowered its benchmark rate by a bigger margin than expected, the first reduction in four years, after consumer prices eased in the South Asian nation.

The State Bank of Pakistan reduced the target rate by 150 basis points to 20.50%, compared to a median estimate for a 100 basis point cut. Only two economists predicted the decision.

“The committee, on balance, viewed that it is now an appropriate time to reduce the policy rate,” the central bank said in a statement. It “noted that the real interest rate still remains significantly positive, which is important to continue guiding inflation to the medium-term target of 5–7%.”

The decision comes as inflation slowed more than expected in May, giving room to the central bank to reduce interest rates from its record highs. Consumer prices eased for the fifth straight month as domestic food supplies improved and fuel costs fell. The central bank had kept interest rates at a record 22% since June last year to rein in prices.

Lower rates will help boost demand and support economic recovery. Pakistan aims for a 3.6% expansion in the next fiscal year starting July 1, faster than current year’s 2.4%. Lower policy rates further would also ease pressure on treasury yields and make debt obligations cheaper.

The cut is the start of monetary easing in Pakistan with economists forecasting the key rate dropping to 17.25% by the end of the year, according to the median forecast in a survey conducted by Bloomberg.

Pakistan’s administration is also negotiating a fresh loan program with the International Monetary Fund. Fresh support from the Washington-based lender will be key to shore up foreign exchange reserves and meet its debt payments of about $24 billion in next fiscal year.

Pakistan is due to pay about $2 billion in debt payments until the end of July, State Bank of Pakistan governor Jameel Ahmad, said in an analyst briefing. Total debt payments will be close to $12 billion in fiscal year ending June excluding loan rollovers, Ahmad said.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s upcoming budget is expected to announce strict fiscal and monetary measures, including raising taxes and energy tariffs, to win the lender’s nod for further funds. The central bank did warn that the budget scheduled for later this week brings an upside risks to near-term inflation and that there is uncertainty regarding energy prices.
World Bank approves a $1 billion loan for Pakistan’s key hydropower project (AP)
AP [6/11/2024 5:08 AM, Staff, 31180K, Neutral]
The World Bank said Tuesday it has approved $1 billion for the construction of Pakistan’s biggest Dasu hydropower project, which is being built in the country’s northwest with China’s help.

The loan would be used to expand the hydropower electricity supply and improve access for local communities, the bank said in a statement.

“Pakistan’s energy sector suffers from multiple challenges to achieving affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy,” said Najy Benhassine, the World Bank director for Pakistan. The Dasu hydropower project site is a game changer for the Pakistan energy sector, he said.

The bank said the project will contribute to “greening# the energy sector and lowering the cost of electricity. The dam is being built in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, and once completed, it will have an installed capacity of 4,320 to 5,400 megawatts.

Thousands of Chinese have been working on the Dasu dam and other projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Some have been attacked in recent years by militants who accuse them of plundering mineral resources.
Russia test: Will Pakistan attend the Ukraine peace summit? (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [6/11/2024 12:01 AM, Abid Hussain, 20.9M, Neutral]
Days before Switzerland hosts a global summit aimed at thrashing out a path towards peace in Ukraine, Pakistan is trapped in a quandary – should it attend?

Pakistan has maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s war on Ukraine, and many analysts believe that the country of 236 million people has far too much at stake – from Ukrainian weapons to Russian oil – to skip the conclave. But others caution that Pakistan’s decision might partly be influenced by China’s move to boycott the summit, which Russia, too, will not be attending. China is arguably Pakistan’s most important strategic partner today.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed last month that it received an invitation from Swiss authorities for the two-day summit in Lucerne, starting on June 15. Yet it is still to decide whether to participate. “Still under discussion,” Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told Al Jazeera via WhatsApp on Thursday.

More than 160 countries have been invited to participate in the summit, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requested Switzerland to host. At least 90 countries have confirmed participation. But Moscow and Beijing will not be joining the meeting.

Tughral Yamin, a former military official and senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad (IPSI), said it was important for Pakistan to participate.

“Pakistan must attend the summit. It has stakes in the war. We have strong defence relations with Ukraine, whereas we are trying to build strong ties with Russia as well which can provide us oil, so attending this makes complete sense,” he told Al Jazeera.

Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, concurred, pointing to how Pakistan has argued for an end to the war while maintaining a neutral position on the conflict.

“There is of course the imperative of not wanting to be seen as being aligned with any one party,” he said. “However, since this is a peace summit, there is also an opportunity for Pakistan to have a voice on an important regional issue and to signal that its attendance is not in any way tantamount to taking sides in the conflict,” Humayun told Al Jazeera.

“It will signal that we are partners in de-escalating a global conflict, rather than picking sides. That point can be deftly signalled in advance to all stakeholders,” he added.

Pakistan’s Russia-Ukraine tightrope walk

Pakistan has cultivated strong ties with Ukraine going back three decades, since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Pakistan has bought several high-value Ukrainian weapons systems including tanks. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that Ukraine supplied weapons worth nearly $1.6bn to Pakistan until 2020.

However, recent years have seen Pakistan also strengthening relations with Russia, a country that it traditionally kept its distance from during the Cold War, when Islamabad was more closely aligned with the West.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who visited Russia on the day the war began in February 2022, later suggested that he was removed from power as part of a United States conspiracy because he was trying to bolster ties with Russia. The US has denied those allegations.

Following the start of the war, despite maintaining neutrality, multiple reports have suggested that Pakistan has supplied artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The Intercept, a US publication, alleged in a report last year that the US facilitated a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Pakistan in exchange for arms supplied to Ukraine.

Pakistan has repeatedly denied these claims, with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba endorsing Pakistan’s neutrality during his visit to Islamabad in July last year.

Meanwhile, even after Khan’s removal from the prime minister’s position, Pakistani leaders have kept up intense diplomatic engagements. Current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met President Vladimir Putin twice in two months in late 2022, months after former premier Khan’s visit to Moscow.

Pakistan also signed a crude oil deal with Russia in April 2023, receiving the first shipment two months later, at a time when the West was pressuring countries to stop buying Russian oil.

Taimur Khan, a research associate at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) who specialises in ties with Russia, said Pakistan had an opportunity to benefit from Moscow’s pivot towards Asia at a time when its ties with the West are at their worst since the end of the Cold War.

But Khan said he was sceptical about the summit’s outcomes, because of Russia’s absence. “The summit is premised on the peace formula presented by President Zelenskyy, a formula that Russia out rightly rejects, and both the main parties to the conflict [Russia and Ukraine] not being genuinely interested in any peace talks due to the volatile and fluid situation on the battlefield,” he added.

The Swiss government has not invited Russia to the summit as yet, despite being open to extending an invitation. Russia has publicly dismissed the summit as “absurd” and an “idle pastime”.

But there’s another factor complicating Pakistan’s decision on whether to attend the Swiss summit, said analysts: China.

Will Pakistan do what China won’t?

On May 31 China made clear that it would not participate in the Swiss summit.

“China has always insisted that an international peace conference should be endorsed by both Russia and Ukraine, with the equal participation of all parties, and that all peace proposals should be discussed in a fair and equal manner. Otherwise, it will be difficult for it to play a substantive role in restoring peace,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said.

Khan, the ISSI scholar, said China’s position should not dictate Pakistan’s.

“If China has made the decision of not attending the summit for its own reasons, it does not mean that Pakistan should follow suit if it does not fulfil its interests,” he said.

Humayun, the Tufts University scholar, said that if Pakistan eventually chooses to not attend the summit, that decision ought not to affect its ties with the West.

“Should Pakistan choose not to attend, in principle, it ought not to impact relations with either the European Union or the US, which should understand that countries in the Global South (including India) have an independent set of compulsions which they are navigating, and prerogatives as sovereign countries,” he said.

Khan, the ISSI analyst, said that if Pakistan stays away from Lucerne, that decision also is unlikely to lead to economic consequences at a time when it needs assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where the US wields major influence.

“There is no doubt that Pakistan desperately needs economic assistance from partners and allies, as well as the IMF. However, I do not believe that it will have major economic repercussions for Pakistan if it chooses not to attend,” he said.
A van falls into a river in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing 16 people, mostly children (AP)
AP [6/10/2024 6:19 AM, Staff, 31180K, Negative]
A van fell from a mountain road into a river in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, killing 16 people, mostly children, and injuring several others, Pakistani police and government officials said Monday.

The incident happened in the Neelam Valley on Sunday, according to a statement released by the disaster management authority. The dead included nine children and four women, while four people were injured when they jumped from the van before it fell into the fast-flowing Neelam River, it added.

Kashmir is divided between neighboring India and Pakistan, with both claiming the entire territory.

Authorities said divers had so far found six bodies and the search for the other bodies was still underway. According to police, there was no chance of finding any survivors.

Road accidents are common in Pakistan due to poor road infrastructure and disregard for traffic laws and safety standards.

Last month, 28 people were killed and 20 others injured when a speeding passenger bus fell from a highway into a rocky ravine in the southwestern Baluchistan province.
India
Modi Opts for Policy Stability With Familiar Faces in Cabinet (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [6/10/2024 11:32 PM, Ruchi Bhatia and Preeti Soni, 27296K, Positive]
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi retained several cabinet ministers in key portfolios, including finance, signaling policy continuity in a new coalition government in charge of the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Nirmala Sitharaman was reappointed India’s finance minister, a position she’s held since 2019, the government said Monday. Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari all kept their posts.

The cabinet appointments follow several days of intense negotiations between Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and its coalition partners, who the BJP is now forced to share power with after losing its outright majority in recent elections. Modi was sworn in to office for a third consecutive term on Sunday, allowing him to continue pursuing his ambitious economic agenda.

However, the disappointment at the polls suggest his government will need to do more to tackle unemployment, especially among the youth, rising living costs and widening inequality.

Economists said the reappointment of key ministers helps to ease market concerns around the new coalition government, particularly around fiscal policy. Modi’s government had pledged to curb the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of gross domestic product by next year, but the BJP’s below-par performance at the polls has raised fears officials may ramp up spending to shore up voter support, putting budget targets at risk. The BJP will face a series of crucial state elections in coming months including in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi.

Sitharaman is “a prudent fiscal manager,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank, adding that the minister will ensure India remains on the path of fiscal consolidation. “We can see more allocation towards rural development and rural housing, and she will ensure that it does not translate into any fiscal slippage. It’s very critical at this moment.”

The minister’s immediate task will be to present the government’s budget, likely in July, which will provide insight into the Modi coalition’s priorities going forward. A boost to government coffers recently means there’s fiscal space to spend more. Tax revenue has soared and the central bank recently announced it will pay a record dividend of about $25 billion to the government.

S&P Global Ratings recently signaled a possible credit rating upgrade in coming months, citing the improved fiscal position.

“The decision to retain key cabinet ministers in the important portfolios of finance, home, defense, external affairs, road transport, in the third term sends a strong signal of policy continuity,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc.

Some of the new faces in the cabinet include Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh state, who was appointed agriculture minister, and J.P. Nadda, the BJP president, who was named health minister. Of the 30 cabinet positions, 25 stayed with the BJP and five went to the allied parties.

Economists expect the BJP-led government to continue its focus on infrastructure spending, which has helped underpin rapid economic growth. India’s economy expanded more than 8% in the fiscal year that ended in March, with the central bank predicting growth will reach 7.2% in the current fiscal year.

“We expect the new government to stick to the fiscal consolidation path with a continued thrust on infrastructure creation through more rail network, amidst a slight tilt towards more rural spending,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists including Santanu Sengupta wrote in a note.
Indian PM Modi names Cabinet for coalition government after his party lost majority (AP)
AP [6/10/2024 11:49 AM, Staff, 31180K, Neutral]
India’s Narendra Modi, newly sworn in for a third straight term, named a Cabinet on Monday that retained his top ministers in crucial portfolios despite his Hindu nationalist party losing their majority in a shock election result.

There was no change in the top four ministries. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who spearheaded the country’s foreign policy for the last five years, was handed back his position as the External Affairs Minister. Amit Shah will continue as India’s Home Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman will remain as the Finance Minister and Rajnath Singh will continue to be Defense Minister.

India’s six-week-long election came to an end last week, in which Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party failed to secure a majority on its own after it won landslide victories in 2014 and 2019. However, his National Democratic Alliance coalition won enough seats to form the government, with him at the helm.

This is the first time the BJP under Modi has needed support from its regional allies to form a government after a decade of commanding the majority in India’s parliament.

Final election results showed Modi’s BJP won 240 seats, well below the 272 needed for a majority. Together, the parties in the NDA coalition secured 293 seats in the 543-member lower house of parliament.

Modi, 73, is only the second Indian prime minister to win a third straight term.

On Sunday, he and 71 ministers took the oath of office at India’s presidential palace, Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi. 61 of them were from the BJP while the remaining were BJP’s NDA allies. Only seven of them were women, and not a single one from the Muslim community, the largest minority group in India whose political representation as lawmakers has shrunk under Modi.

The results, which defied exit polls that predicted a landslide for the BJP, left Modi’s coalition government largely dependent on two key regional allies — the Telugu Desam Party in southern Andhra Pradesh state and Janata Dal (United) in eastern Bihar state — to stay in power. On Sunday, two lawmakers from each party were sworn in as ministers.

The surprising drop in support for the BJP means Modi needs support from his regional allies to stay in power, and experts say he may have to adapt to a style of governance he is not used to.

An avowed Hindu nationalist, Modi is considered a champion of the country’s Hindu majority, who make up 80% of India’s 1.4 billion population. His supporters credit him with rapid economic growth and improving India’s global standing since coming to power.

But critics say he has also undermined India’s democracy and its status as a secular nation with attacks by Hindu nationalists against the country’s minorities, particularly Muslims, and a shrinking space for dissent and free media. His political opponents, who are now more emboldened than before, also rallied their campaign around his government’s mixed economic record, pointing to high unemployment and growing inequality despite strong growth, which analysts say resonated with voters.
Narendra Modi retains finance, defense, other core cabinet ministers (Nikkei Asia
Nikkei Asia [6/10/2024 1:34 PM, Kiran Sharma, 2042K, Positive]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi retained his top ministers on Monday as he begins his historic third consecutive term, including those handling the key portfolios of finance, foreign affairs, defense and home affairs, while accommodating allies whose support was crucial to form the new government.

The cabinet announcement late Monday came a day after the swearing in of Modi and 71 ministers of the new government of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by the prime minister’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). President Droupadi Murmu administered the oath of office at a ceremony attended by several thousand guests, including foreign dignitaries.

Among those reappointed to vital posts was Nirmala Sitharaman, who became India’s first full-time female finance minister in 2019. Before her, Indira Gandhi of the now-opposition Congress party held the additional portfolio of finance briefly in the early 1970s when she served as prime minister.

Sitharaman, under whose last tenure India became the world’s fifth largest economy, is expected to present the new government’s full budget in the days ahead, though the exact date has not yet been announced. In February, she presented an interim budget ahead of the April 19 to June 1 seven-phase general election to let the outgoing government continue with obligatory spending until a new administration took over.

Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, a diplomat-turned-politician credited as being behind India’s assertive foreign policy, also retained his position. He shaped the country’s foreign policy amid challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a border standoff with China in the eastern Ladakh region, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas crisis.

Veteran BJP leader Rajnath Singh returned as defense minister, under whose leadership India focused on defense manufacturing and strengthening its forces along the tense Himalayan borders with China.

Amit Shah, a close aide of Modi, remains as head of the Ministry of Home Affairs after overseeing many key developments in his last tenure, including the scrapping of a special status given to the erstwhile northern state of Jammu and Kashmir. He also guided the implementation of a controversial law that aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslim immigrants who fled religious persecution in neighboring Muslim-majority countries -- Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

Unlike the last two NDA governments wherein the BJP had a solo majority, Modi’s party this time fell short of that mark and had to rely on allies to form the government. The final results showed that the BJP secured 240 out of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament for which elections were held, 32 short of a simple majority. But the NDA as a whole controls over 290 seats, enough for Modi to return to power.

Given the new circumstances, its key allies in the NDA -- Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) -- were given important portfolios, including the Ministry of Civil Aviation and the Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying. Both parties had previously broken away from the NDA and sided with the opposition but returned to the ruling alliance just before elections this year. Several other allies were also accommodated in the new government.

The cabinet’s first meeting saw a decision to provide assistance -- under an ongoing scheme -- for construction of an additional 30 million houses for the rural and urban poor. Already, a total of 42.1 million such houses have been built in the last decade under Modi, according to a separate official statement on Monday evening.

Earlier in the day, Modi authorized distribution of around 200 billion rupees ($2.4 billion) for the welfare of farmers under another scheme that was already in place. The move will benefit over 90 million farmers across the country.

"Our government is committed to making the lives of our farmer brothers and sisters across the country easier. It is a matter of good fortune for me that after assuming office as the Prime Minister for the third consecutive time, I have got the opportunity to [take the first decision] for them," Modi posted on social media platform X, in Hindi. "In the coming times, we will continue to work for the welfare of farmers and the uplifting of the agriculture sector."

Agricultural growers are a key voting bloc in India that every party has tried to woo; analysts say that discontent among farmers seeking better prices for their crops, along with unemployment and soaring prices, could be among the reasons Modi’s BJP lost its majority this time.
India, Pakistan leaders resort to X diplomacy as Modi returns for third term (Reuters)
Reuters [6/10/2024 11:35 AM, Asif Shahzad, 2042K, Neutral]
India and Pakistan’s leaders resorted to diplomacy via X on Monday, a day after Narendra Modi was sworn in as prime minister for the third time.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his elder brother and former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif congratulated Modi in posts on the social media platform within hours of each other, in what was Pakistan’s first response to the election results from across the border.

"Your party’s success in recent elections reflects the confidence of the people in your leadership. Let us replace hate with hope and seize the opportunity to shape the destiny of the two billion people of South Asia," Nawaz said in one post.

Modi responded, saying "The people of India have always stood for peace, security and progressive ideas. Advancing the well-being and security of our people shall always remain our priority."

Modi secured a record-equalling third term but lost his outright majority and is dependent on regional parties for support in his first coalition government.

Nuclear-armed rivals and neighbours India and Pakistan have fought three wars, including two over control of the disputed Kashmir region in the Himalayas.

Ties between the two have been frozen since India ended the special status of Jammu and Kashmir state in 2019 and split it into two federally administered territories.

They came closer to yet another war when India launched air strikes inside Pakistan to target what it said was a militants’ sanctuary.

New Delhi invited leaders of seven regional countries to Sunday’s grand inauguration at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, or president’s palace, in New Delhi but Sharif wasn’t included.

A few hours after Shehbaz Sharif had wished him well, Modi responded on X: "Thank you @cmshehbaz for your good wishes".

The elder Sharif has always been a proponent of peace with India, which is said to be one of the reasons he fell out with his country’s powerful military in his last tenure from 2013 to 2017.

Analysts don’t see any chance of peace talks between the two sides anytime soon, however.

"Modi is not ready as yet," said author and defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa. The two sides have some backdoor diplomatic initiatives, however, which may be a "a gentle start," she said.
Imprisoned firebrand politician wins election in Indian Kashmir (VOA)
VOA [6/10/2024 3:45 PM, Muheet Ul Islam, 4032K, Neutral]
On June 4, 2024, the Langate neighborhood in Kupwara district on the Indian side of Kashmir reverberated with chants of “Cooker, cooker, pressure cooker,” after the local election commission office declared election results for the three constituencies in the region.

The results were part of the Indian general elections that ended June 1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to secure an absolute majority in the voting but he retained office for a rare third term with the support of the Telugu Desam Party, or TDP, and Janata Dal United, or JDU.

Kashmir Valley exit polls normally favor the oldest regional political party, the National Conference, or NC. In the recent election, however, imprisoned firebrand politician Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as "Engineer Rashid," won a landslide victory.

He defeated Omar Abdullah, former chief minister and vice president of the NC, and Sajad Ghani Lone, a separatist-turned-mainstream politician and founder of the People’s Conference, or PC, by over 200,000 votes.

Rashid was arrested days before the government of India revoked the disputed Himalayan region’s semiautonomous status in August 2019. He was later charged in a terror-funding case and is currently imprisoned in New Delhi’s Tihar jail.

He is also the founder of the Awami Ittehad Party, or AIP.

“My father showed interest after being approached by his party members. He said that he would contest the election from the Baramulla parliamentary constituency if the AIP members thought he was a good fit for the position,” Abrar Rashid, son of Engineer Rashid, told VOA. “AIP had decided to contest the election in October last year,” he added.

AIP started its campaign late after filing the party chief’s nomination papers on April 30. Despite low resources to cover his campaign expenses, the junior Rashid attracted a massive crowd in support of his father.

“Initially, the response was moderate. But soon people, especially youth, began showing great interest in our campaigns. They [youth] spent their own money to support the election campaign. We faced a minor issue, as we couldn’t use our traditional party symbol, a cooking gas cylinder, because our party is not registered with the election commission,” Rashid said, adding that a pressure cooker was chosen as a new symbol, and it became popular among the masses in the region.

Political analysts attribute Engineer Rashid’s landslide victory as an outcome of sympathy and resistance politics.

“It was altogether a sympathy vote where people thought Engineer Rashid would be released soon after being elected as a member of parliament from north Kashmir,” Muzamil Maqbool, a political analyst and host of the podcast “Plain Talk,” told VOA.

“Secondly, people, especially the youth, are sick and tired of the same old dynasty politicking. They didn’t see Omar Abdullah or Sajad Lone as suitable candidates to represent them in the Indian parliament,” Maqbool added.

AIP disagreed, saying Rashid did not win because of sympathy votes but because of the party agenda, which includes the “unconditional release of all prisoners, the preservation of the culture and identity of Jammu and Kashmir, and ensuring full respect for human rights and freedom of expression of the local population.”

“Engineer Rashid has already proven himself as an honest, humble, pro-poor and fearless leader. Despite being imprisoned in Tihar since 4 August 2019 for speaking up for the people of Kashmir he remains calm and committed to his duty,” AIP spokesperson Firdous Baba said. “Engineer Rashid left his office to represent the nation, inventing a style of politics that brought him suffering but gave hope to the people. His arrest was due to his true interpretation of Kashmir, and he has remained steadfast in his position despite the challenges.”

Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a Kashmiri political analyst and a prominent scholar of human rights and international law, also believes that sympathy worked for AIP and its founder.

“I would say sympathy, as well as his continued identification with resistance politics, played a crucial part in his victory,” Hussain said. “People had a third option — a former chief minister, a proxy candidate and a person in jail,” he said, referring to Lone, who was covertly supported by Modi’s BJP, without mentioning his name.

Rashid’s charisma was not confined to the north, as people from south and central Kashmir voluntarily campaigned for him — igniting the flame that led to his victory.

“Engineer Rashid is the voice of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, and I felt the need to support him,” Mudasir Thoker, a resident of south Kashmir’s Shopian district, told VOA. “I traveled from south to north continuously for 18 hours to extend my support. My message was clear that the youth of Jammu and Kashmir will support a leader who understands the struggles of the local population.”

Kashmir is a disputed territory between India and Pakistan. The two nuclear-armed South Asian neighboring countries control different parts of the Himalayan territory since their independence from British rule in 1947. A small portion is also under Chinese control.
Modi’s election setback surprises Indian Americans in the DMV (Washington Post)
Washington Post [6/11/2024 12:12 AM, Anumita Kaur, 6.9M, Neutral]
The first thing Syed Ashraf did when he awoke at 5:45 a.m. last Tuesday in his Ashburn, Va. home was look up the Indian election results.

His tension eased and he felt a glimmer of hope as he scrolled the results that trickled out from the subcontinent, he said. After a 47-day election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had secured the most parliamentary seats, but it fell short of securing the majority needed to form a government — an unexpected rebellion against the Hindu nationalist party that has dominated the country’s politics for a decade and stoked tensions among religious groups.

Fast, informative and written just for locals. Get The 7 DMV newsletter in your inbox every weekday morning.

“People have really spoken up, and it’s a good thing,” Ashraf, a Muslim Indian who was raised in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh and moved to Virginia in 2000, told The Washington Post. “I was worried about the future of my community there, and other communities as well. I was losing my confidence in the democracy of India.”

Modi was sworn in for a rare third term Sunday, but the new parliamentary makeup could put more checks on his power. “And that’s what I feel good about,” Ashraf, 51, said.

Indian Americans across the D.C., Maryland and Virginia region tuned in to the Indian elections last week, checking WhatsApp group chats and waiting for the latest news reports. The stakes are high: widening wealth inequality; India’s position in the global economy; and threatened multiculturalism and secularism, as the BJP has attempted to push the country’s minorities to the margins.

As Modi and the BJP’s setback became clear, reaction from Indian Americans in the DMV ran the gamut: shock, delight, hope, worry, resignation. For some, the shift in Indian politics suggests a positive step to support the country’s diversity. Others said it could put India’s economic growth at risk — or won’t change much at all.

Raj Prasannappa, 60, is among those concerned the results will slow India’s economic growth.

A BJP supporter, Prasannappa followed the election on NDTV, an Indian news outlet, anticipating that the party would secure more seats than it did.

He noted how Indian stocks plunged as election results rolled out. (The country’s stocks have since recovered.)

“India was going on the right path economically,” Prasannappa said from outside a Sterling, Va., Hindu temple as the sun dipped and a Hanuman pooja, or prayer, rang out. Now, he said, a parliament without a clear majority “leaves India in uncertainty.” (Under the BJP, India’s share of the global GDP has grown, though high unemployment and low rural wages persist.)

Kumar Tirumala, another member of Prasannappa’s temple, carried bananas as offering into the pooja. He was up late Monday night for results, which he expected to be another BJP landslide. To him, Modi and the BJP represent a preservation of Hindu culture. Nearly 80 percent of the country’s population is Hindu.

By Tuesday evening, he said, he was satisfied with the results: Modi secured a third term, and that is enough. In the years to come, Tirumala said he hopes the BJP rebounds.

Many who hail from the country’s minorities, such as Ashraf, disagree. The party built a temple on the site of a razed mosque, revoked the predominantly Muslim Kashmir region’s autonomous special status and excluded Muslims from a fast track to citizenship. Emboldened by the party’s lead, lynch mobs have targeted the country’s Muslims, and local officials have used bulldozers to demolish the properties of Muslims accused of crimes. On the campaign trail, Modi referred to the country’s Muslims as “infiltrators.”

Tensions have touched Western soil, too. Indian officials orchestrated an assassination attempt against a Sikh separatist leader, a vocal critic of Modi, in the United States this year, The Post reported, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country was investigating allegations that the Indian government was behind the killing of a Sikh Canadian separatist leader.

“Modi didn’t do anything for us,” Balwinder Singh said from the quiet foyer of a Northwest Washington gurdwara, or Sikh place of worship. “How he’s treated Muslims, it’s not good. The Sikh community has not been happy either.”

For Singh, 54, the election results represent a pushback against Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda. “It’s a good sign for India,” he said.

Laby George, who leads an Indian church in Silver Spring, said that breaking up the BJP’s political monopoly was crucial for the health of the nation’s democracy. He stayed up until about 3 a.m. tracking the election and went to sleep relieved.

“India is a democratic country. For any democracy to flourish there should be a good opposition party,” he said. “This will help the country go in the right direction. I’m not saying everything is going to be fixed, but there can be resistance.”

Last year, mobs fueled by Hindu nationalism attacked hundreds of Christian converts in dozens of villages in eastern India. Hopefully, now, aggressions against minorities will be less frequent, said Selvin Selvaraj, 49, of Gaithersburg.

He waited until 4:15 a.m., hoping the opposition would secure more seats, Selvaraj said.

Rupinder Singh, a Rockville resident, said the parliamentary shake-up is not enough. He said many Sikhs don’t have much faith in any political parties — that the parties have “been different sides to the same coin.”

This month is a stark reminder of that for many Sikhs. June marks 40 years since the Indian army raided Sikhism’s holy site, the Golden Temple in Amritsar, to kill a Sikh militant leader. Hundreds died during the attack. The bloody raid took place under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, of the Indian National Congress Party.

Now — regardless of who holds the prime minister title or who sits in parliament — India contends with issues that grow more urgent by the day, such as a worsening climate crisis, Rupinder Singh, 40, said. Last week, a heat wave killed 14 people in India, including 10 elections officials.

“When it’s 140 degrees and there’s no water, what’s going to happen?” he said. “It will be the haves versus the have nots, and that’s scary. No political party is seriously addressing this.”

Many Indian Americans across the DMV said they’ll continue watching their home country’s political situation closely — some hopeful, some dubious.

“It’s neither positive nor negative. I’m still skeptical of what’s going on, and what is coming next,” said Imran Kukdawala, 40. “The BJP did not get the type of majority they were hoping for. But they’re still in power.”
India to focus on solving border issues with China, foreign minister says (Reuters)
Reuters [6/11/2024 3:27 AM, Sudipto Ganguly, 43M, Neutral]
India will focus on finding solutions to the border issues with China that has long strained ties between the neighbouring countries, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Tuesday after assuming charge for a second straight term.

India and China share a 3,800 km (2,400 mile) border - much of it poorly demarcated - over which the nuclear-armed nations also fought a war in 1962.

They have engaged in a military standoff since July 2020 when at least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops were killed in the worst clashes in five decades.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in on Sunday for a record-equalling third term at a grand ceremony at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, the president’s palace in New Delhi, attended by leaders of seven regional countries, underlining the government’s "neighbourhood first" policy.

But relations and problems with China and Pakistan were different, Jaishankar told reporters.

"With regards to China there are still some issues at the border and our focus will be on how to solve them," he said.

India and Pakistan, which is also nuclear-armed, have fought three wars, including two over control of the disputed Kashmir region in the Himalayas.

Relations between them have worsened since a 2019 suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir was traced to Pakistan-based militants, leading New Delhi to carry out an airstrike on what it said was a militant base in Pakistan.

On Monday, leaders of the two countries engaged in diplomacy via X. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his elder brother and former prime minister Nawaz congratulated Modi, in what was Pakistan’s first response to the election results from across the border.

"With Pakistan, we would want to find a solution to the issue of years-old cross-border terrorism. That cannot be the policy of a good neighbour," Jaishankar said.
Gunmen ambush minister’s security team in India’s Manipur state, 2 wounded (Reuters)
Reuters [6/10/2024 8:41 AM, Tora Agarwala, 42991K, Negative]
Armed men ambushed a convoy carrying the security team of the chief minister of India’s troubled northeastern state of Manipur on Monday, wounding two people, but the leader was not with them at the time, officials said.

Fighting between Manipur’s majority Meitei and minority Kuki communities over sharing economic benefits and quotas given to the latter has killed at least 220 people and displaced 60,000 in the last year, with sporadic clashes continuing.

Chief Minister N. Biren Singh was due to visit the state’s Jiribam region on Tuesday, after violence flared there following the discovery of the body of a 59-year-old Meitei man last week.

The security team attacked on Monday was going to make "arrangements and checks" for his visit, officials said.

Attackers opened fire on one vehicle in the convoy, "leading to a firefight," a security officer said on condition of anonymity.

"The assailants will be brought to justice," Singh wrote on X.

Houses in the region, two police outposts and a forest department office were torched by "unknown miscreants" following the death of the Meitei man, police said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance lost both seats in Manipur to the main opposition Congress in recent national elections - the first polls since violence began in the state.

Singh still runs the state’s local government for the BJP.

"In the last year, due to the complexity of the violence, neither the state nor central government has been able to take strong actions against the groups on both sides," he told the Indian Express newspaper on Sunday.

"This has led to dissatisfaction amongst the valley people," he said.

The state of 3.2 million people is divided into two enclaves - a valley controlled by the Meiteis and the Kuki-dominated hills, separated by a stretch of "no man’s land" monitored by federal paramilitary forces.

Modi was sworn in as India’s prime minister on Sunday, making him only the second person to hold the office for three consecutive terms.

Overall, his BJP lost its outright majority. It will now have to rely on regional parties for support, Modi’s first time at the head of a coalition government.
Eight more die as India faces longest heatwave (BBC)
BBC [6/10/2024 4:14 PM, Meryl Sebastian, 65.5M, Negative]
A severe heatwave continues to wreak havoc in India as the eastern state of Odisha on Monday reported eight deaths within a 72-hour period.

Official figures released in May suggested 60 people died between March and May across India due to heat-related illnesses.

But the number is likely to be much higher as heat-related deaths go under-reported in rural areas.

Officials say India is in the middle of the longest heatwave it has ever seen as temperatures crossed 50C in some areas recently.

"This has been the longest spell because it has been experienced for about 24 days in different parts of the country," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told the Indian Express newspaper.

Parts of northern India have been experiencing extreme heat since mid-May, with temperatures hovering between 45-50C in several cities.

Some areas of the country have also been impacted by water shortages, with extreme heat placing huge demands on supplies.

Earlier this month, at least 18 polling officials deployed for the final phase of the general elections died of heat-related illnesses in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states, authorities said.

On 31 May, at least 33 people, including election officials, died of suspected heatstroke in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.

The monsoon, which hit India’s southern coast in Kerala state on 30 May, is expected to bring some relief as it spreads to northern parts of the country in the coming days.

The IMD has predicted an above-average monsoon season for the country this year.

But Mr Mohapatra said that "heatwaves will be more frequent, durable and intense, if precautionary or preventive measures are not taken."

The weather office has predicted heatwave conditions for northwest and eastern India for the next five days.

India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases, relying heavily on coal to generate power for its needs.

"Human activities, increasing population, industrialisation and transport mechanisms are leading to increased concentration of carbon monoxide, methane and chlorocarbons," Mr Mohapatra said.

"We are endangering not only ourselves, but also our future generations."
A Weakened Modi Could Make India Stronger (Bloomberg – opinion)
Bloomberg [6/10/2024 7:00 PM, Editorial Board, 27296K, Negative]
Entering his third term leading the world’s biggest democracy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is weaker than he expected to be. India is the stronger for it — and will be stronger still if he heeds the message voters are sending.

Modi swept into power in 2014 as the head of the first single-party majority India had seen in a quarter-century. His Bharatiya Janata Party increased its dominance five years later and thought it would do so again this year. Instead, voters delivered a stinging rebuke: The BJP lost 63 seats and its majority. The government Modi heads is now a true coalition. To stay in power, he must cater to other members, including two fickle regional powerbrokers.

Voters turned against the BJP for different reasons in different parts of the country. The ruling party performed worst where it amped up divisive rhetoric, demonized Muslims and looked forward to the constitutional changes a supermajority would allow it to make. Hard-knuckled attempts to co-opt or sideline members of the opposition backfired. Voters were more concerned about inflation, unemployment and inequality. Modi, son of a tea seller, claims a connection to the common Indian. Millions have just told him what they want: jobs, development, prospects for a better future for their families and nation.

The result was shocking given how much the space for dissent and opposition in India had shrunk. Ahead of the vote, a top figure in the opposition coalition was arrested and the bank accounts of its leading party were frozen. Most of the press has been slavishly uncritical. Courts have been accused of bias. The otherwise well-regarded markets regulator has struggled with politically sensitive investigations. Even the selection of new election commissioners raised eyebrows. Freedom House rates India as only “partly free”; V-Dem calls it an “electoral autocracy.”

Geopolitical partners and global investors have long valued India for the independence of its institutions — including its judiciary, news media, parliament and regulators. Faith in India’s democracy reassured companies that the rules for doing business are clear, not peremptory; that information is accessible and trustworthy; and that disputes will be resolved fairly and transparently. Lately, such confidence had been tested. The election vindicated it anew — and if the new government draws the right lessons from the BJP’s setback, India will be stronger.

What’s needed are reforms to promote jobs: lower tariffs to promote trade, investments in health and education, a less interventionist agricultural policy, and more liberal land and labor laws. A parliamentary majority wouldn’t have guaranteed such changes; India’s states preside over important parts of the reform agenda. In fact, being forced to strike bargains with coalition partners, deal with closer scrutiny in the parliament and the press, and compromise with those state governments could be helpful. The reforms that emerge will command wider acceptance and be more durable.

The US ought to welcome a return to political competition in India. The country’s democratic backsliding had drawn little overt criticism from Washington, but it threatened the shared values that are the foundation of their friendship. An India more focused on educating its workers, raising productivity and joining global value chains will be a more capable and trustworthy partner.
Modi’s Jobs Crisis Can’t Be Solved Without China (Bloomberg – opinion)
Bloomberg [6/10/2024 3:00 PM, Mihir Sharma, 27296K, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new government, sworn in on Sunday, is weaker than his previous administrations for one main reason: jobs. Voters punished the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party for not producing the kind of solid employment opportunities expected of a rising superpower. If policymakers want to change that, they need to better appreciate how modern supply chains work.

The jobs crisis is most evident in manufacturing. For several years now, officials have assumed that companies seeking to build new supply chains outside an increasingly risky and expensive China would turn naturally to India — also a large market, with more predictable politics and cheaper labor.

In the past, production has shifted from one country to another in a very consistent manner. Companies realize they can make goods more efficiently in a poorer nation. They invest, build factories there, employ people and create value. Eventually, the second country gets rich, and the cycle starts again with a third, even poorer one as the new investment destination.

Yet, outside a few high-profile examples such as Apple Inc., India is not attracting multinational companies at anywhere near the rate one might expect. Recent central bank data shows that, net of outflows, FDI last year hit its lowest point since before the 2008 financial crisis. There’s a stunning disconnect between Indian officials’ “next China” rhetoric and the depressing reality.

Nor is the slump tied to a decline in cross-border investment globally amid increased economic nationalism. India’s share of world FDI inflows is also falling.

This is not how the age of decoupling was supposed to work. Outdated thinking in New Delhi is to blame.

Today, no one company, or even one country, makes high-value products entirely within its own shores. If you want to export, you have to bring in inputs needed to manufacture complex goods. That means you need to keep your general tariff levels low, or at least stable.

Instead, India’s approach to international economics has been reminiscent of the 1970s. Policymakers appear convinced that trade policy is about shrinking imports and growing exports, rather than focusing on increasing the value created domestically.

Pressed by various lobbies, officials have raised tariffs haphazardly. They have increased subsidies for manufacturing to attract producers. At the same time, for national-security reasons, they have largely tried to cut Chinese companies out of local supply chains.

Such a strategy is doomed to fail. India’s market is not so large and deep that multinational companies will relocate whole supply chains here to service it. They need to be able to export at competitive prices.

Moreover, officials have to understand they can’t just pretend the People’s Republic doesn’t exist. China dominates most of today’s disaggregated and disconnected supply chains. That makes trying to create entirely new ones that totally exclude the mainland’s companies and products a Herculean task. To depend less on China in the long run, countries must engage with it in the medium term.

Apple understands this. The US giant has significantly increased production in, and exports from, India. That’s only been possible because it pushed for its Chinese suppliers — from Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co. to Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., which makes phone cameras — to set up shop there as well.

Those Chinese companies benefit from having a politically influential American patron. What of others? Indian officials continue to tell the country’s private sector to cut down on business with the mainland. Rejecting investment and knowhow from Chinese companies will only make it harder for India to replicate their success.

That’s not what many of India’s peers are doing. Vietnam, for example, is as unwilling to kowtow to Beijing as India is. But Vietnamese officials recognize the path to economic independence depends upon moving up a China-dominated value chain.

Vietnamese officials don’t panic about imports from the mainland because , in 2020, 61% by value of their imports of intermediate goods and services was subsequently exported, double the level in 2000. In India, the equivalent proportion was 26% — which, the OECD points out, is almost the same as it was in 2008.

Vietnam lives in the 21st century. India is still living in the 20th. While some recent changes to the rules governing Chinese investment in India may indicate this realization is beginning to take hold, the new government must move faster to update its approach. Otherwise, it’s going to continue to struggle to provide the one thing angry voters want most.
NSB
No competitive politics left in Bangladesh, says Nobel laureate Yunus (Reuters)
Reuters [6/11/2024 5:03 AM, Ruma Paul, 42991K, Negative]
Bangladesh has turned into a "one-party" state as the ruling party stamps out political competition, Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, a pioneer of the global microcredit movement, said in an interview.

An election in January won Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina a fourth straight term, but it was boycotted by the main opposition party, whose top leaders were either jailed or in exile ahead of the poll.

Yunus, who helped to lift millions from poverty by providing tiny loans of sums less than $100 to the rural poor, angered Hasina with a 2007 plan to set up a political party.

The 2006 Nobel laureate accused Hasina’s ruling Awami League party of being involved in rampant corruption, saying Bangladesh lacked a genuine political opposition.

"Bangladesh doesn’t have any politics left," Yunus, 83, said last week in his office in Dhaka, the capital. "There’s only one party which is active and occupies everything, does everything, gets to the elections in their way."

He added, "They get their people elected in many different forms - proper candidates, dummy candidates, independent candidates - but all from the same party."

Law Minister Anisul Huq said he completely disagreed with Yunus’ comments, however.

"It’s not only I who disagree, but the people of the country will also disagree," Huq told Reuters by telephone, calling the remarks an "insult" to the people of the country.

"Democracy is fully functional in this country," he added.

Yunus, an economist who won the Nobel for his work on microcredit, was forced out of Grameen Bank in 2011 by Hasina’s government, which said he had stayed on past the legal retirement age of 60.

Hasina, 76, is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of the South Asian nation killed in an army coup in 1975, along with most of his family. She first became prime minister in 1996.

As Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, Hasina has been credited with turning around the economy, though critics have also accused her of human rights violations and suppression of dissent.

The U.S. State Department said January’s elections were not free and fair while the British government’s foreign office also condemned acts of "intimidation and violence".

At the time, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) denounced the exercise as a "sham" election, calling for its cancellation, Hasina’s resignation and the formation of a non-party neutral government to hold a fresh one.

Just before the election, a court in Bangladesh had sentenced Yunus to six months in prison for violations of labour law, which he denied.

Although he is not in prison after securing bail in that case, Yunus faces more than 100 cases regarding the violations and graft accusations, which he dismissed as "very flimsy, made-up stories".

Huq denied the accusations against Yunus were false, however, adding, "He has gone to the highest court of the country, which found there was a case against him."

As an example, Huq cited taxes paid by Yunus after the Supreme Court ruled against him in a tax-evasion case, but declined comment on others as being sub-judice.

Yunus’ supporters say Hasina’s government has sought to discredit him because he once considered setting up the political party, called "Citizens’ Power".

Hasina, who denies the contention, called Yunus a "bloodsucker" of the poor in 2011.

"Is it a crime for a citizen to try to make a political party?" Yunus asked, saying he dropped the idea of such a party after just 10 weeks, on realising that he was not suited to politics.

Reviving a competitive political landscape in Bangladesh will be difficult, however, Yunus said.

"Restarting will be very painful because we have brought it to a point where it has completely disappeared."
India-Bangladesh Relationship Under Modi 3.0 Won’t Change, But … (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [6/10/2024 6:41 AM, Ali Riaz, 1156K, Neutral]
India’s 18th general election has resulted in a “new” government that is much like the “old” one, both with Narendra Modi at the helm. Yet, many are pondering whether there will be any changes in its posture toward and relationships with its neighbors.

The question is premised on three considerations. The first is that the BJP, especially Modi, is likely to do some introspection after a serious decline of support in the poll. Second, two terms of Modi had witnessed India’s influence diminish vis-a-vis China in the region, which is ostensibly a failure of Modi’s much-touted “Neighborhood First” foreign policy. The third is the strength of the opposition INDIA bloc, which will be able to pose challenges to the BJP-led government on its domestic agenda and foreign policy intents.

In Bangladesh, those who view the Modi government’s unqualified support to Sheikh Hasina as a catalyst of serious democratic backsliding, are hoping that these conditions will make Modi’s third term different. They won’t be holding their breath, however.

In 2014, when the BJP came to power, some in Bangladesh hoped that BJP rule would differ from its predecessor, the Indian National Congress, regarding its relationship with Bangladesh. It did not happen.

On the other hand, the incumbent Awami League (AL) has breathed a sigh of relief that despite its reduced number of seats in Parliament, the BJP is still in power.

Ahead of the 2024 Bangladesh elections, the AL openly asked for New Delhi’s tacit interjection in the wake of the United States’ insistence on a free, fair, and inclusive election. Immediately after the election, current Foreign Minister Hasain Mahmud acknowledged that India was on the AL’s side during the 2014 and 2018 elections. “You all know India’s position in the elections this year too,” he said.

The relationship over the past decade has been unequal both on political and economic fronts, with Bangladesh on the receiving end.

Equally important to note is that despite the economic and strategic interests pursued by the Indian government vis-à-vis Bangladesh, BJP leaders never shied away from expressing their disdain for Bangladeshis and described them as “termites.”

As the election results do not indicate any changes in government, there is no reason to expect a change in the Modi government’s approach or policies.

Two other elements favor policy continuity. India’s Bangladesh policy has all the markers of broad support of the Indian establishment. In the past decade, especially in 2023 when there was a divergence between the U.S. and India, there was not a peep about the human rights situation in Bangladesh from the Indian establishment.

Second, the policy has been guided by India’s security threat perception. India’s security apparatus ostensibly views Bangladesh through a security lens. Their understanding is that only the Awami League, especially Sheikh Hasina, can ensure that India won’t have to be worried about its security on the eastern front, including the restive northeastern states.

Despite strong arguments for continuity, one unknown element is the role of the opposition. Will it make the government’s regional policy an issue? One may recall that in 2018, Congress raised concerns about the Modi government’s foreign policy with particular reference to its relationship with neighboring countries. Congress’ document described the Modi government’s regional policy as “neighborhood lost,” stating:

Looking back at the last three years, India’s foreign policy has achieved little in terms of strategic gains. The ‘Neighborhood First’ policy has degenerated into a ‘Neighborhood Lost’ policy wherein India has become the isolated and generally distrusted next-door neighbor. There are major grievances against New Delhi that are commonly shared among many South Asian nations today. Numerous serious allegations have been raised regarding India’s attempt to bully its smaller neighbors and interfere in their local politics.

The document specifically mentioned Bangladesh-India relations. “Our relationship with Bangladesh, a country that India shares a historically rich and prosperous relationship with, is also seeing signs of stress,” it said. Goodwill with Bangladesh was “eroding slowly.”

While one cannot disagree with this assessment of 2018 and subsequent further erosion, it is also true that such erosion began under the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government in 2013 when then-Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh visited Dhaka ahead of a contentious election and convinced the Jatiya Party – led by former dictator General H. M. Ershad – to join the polls. The election, boycotted by all opposition parties, was a big step toward democratic erosion and India’s role was viewed by many Bangladeshis as intrusive, to say the least.

In Congress’ political discourse, Bangladesh reappeared in the past year when Congress leader Rahul Gandhi raised concerns regarding the Modi-Adani nexus and implied some corrupt practices. He pointedly raised the question “whether the purpose of the Modi government’s foreign policy is to make industrialist Gautam Adani richer.” He mentioned Modi’s 2015 Bangladesh visit when the Adani Group signed a power-producing deal with Bangladesh, which allowed Adani to charge a price that is three times higher than the price of electricity that Bangladesh is importing from other Indian power plants.

It is worth noting that since 2023 and during the election campaign, Gandhi has repeatedly referenced “Adani and Ambani” as symbols of corruption of the Modi government.

Bangladesh’s state of democracy is not unknown to the Indian opposition parties. During the election campaign, Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party said, “We don’t want democracy in India to end like in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Russia.”

For those who observe Bangladesh politics, it was not a revelation, but this was a rare acknowledgment of the lack of democracy in Bangladesh by a national political leader of India.

In a democratic system of governance, foreign policy is largely within the purview of the executive and seldom can the opposition change the course. However, opposition parties can push for accountability and expose the motives behind the policies. Whether the Congress party and the alliance are willing to use their power to scrutinize Modi’s regional foreign policy in general, and India-Bangladesh relations in particular, is something to be seen in the future. Until then India will keep the status quo under Modi 3.0.
The ‘Duped’ Sri Lankans Fighting In Russia’s Ukraine War (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [6/10/2024 4:14 PM, Amal Jayasinghe, 1.4M, Negative]
When Sri Lanka’s economy crashed in 2022, people sought work abroad wherever they could find it -- including ex-soldiers who joined forces fighting in Ukraine after Russia’s invasion.

Now the veterans -- some of whom swapped their life savings for what they thought would be lucrative, non-combat jobs -- are desperate to come back home.

"What we ask is to help bring back our husbands," said Renuka Karunaratne, 49, who said her husband was duped into going to Russia by a devious agent.

Colombo’s parliament set up an inquiry last month to track at least 2,000 battle-hardened Sri Lankans who reportedly enlisted on both sides of the Ukraine war, including in the regular armed forces and mercenary groups.

With no communication for months, and reports of at least 16 Sri Lankans killed and 37 wounded, distraught families are pleading with politicians for help.

The government says around a dozen Sri Lankans are being held prisoners of war in Ukraine, after being lured there in pursuit of work.

Advertisements shared on WhatsApp groups of retired military personnel promised monthly salaries of more than $2,100, 13 times the average income in Sri Lanka.

Promises were also made of plots of land in Russia, where foreign fighters and their families could settle.

Karunaratne said she and her husband paid $10,000 to an employment agent to get the job.

"We have sold everything we owned, including jewellery," she said while demonstrating outside the Russian embassy in Colombo last week.

"We have mortgaged a part of our house too."

An unprecedented economic crisis in early 2022 saw Sri Lanka run out of foreign exchange to import food, fuel and other essentials -- and ultimately default on its external debt.

Nilmini Chandima Dissanayake, 41, said hardship stemming from the downturn pushed her ex-soldier husband to go to Russia, more than 6,000 kilometres (3,700 miles) away.

"My husband was in the commando regiment for 22 years," Dissanayake told AFP. "He had retired, he did some odd jobs, but found it was not enough to manage."

She has not heard from him since May 1, one month after he arrived in Moscow to take up what he thought was a non-combatant role.

"His last call was to plead to get him back home, to save his life," she said.

"Every passing day they lose hope of surviving."

The war in Ukraine has taken a heavy toll on Russian troops, and Moscow has been on a global quest for more forces to fight.

Sri Lanka has maintained a large military relative to its 22-million population since the end of a decades-long civil war against the separatist Tamil Tigers in 2009.

Moscow is believed to have hired thousands of foreign combatants, many of them from South Asia.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine will say how many foreigners are serving in their militaries or how many they are holding as prisoners of war.

In parliament, Sri Lankan deputy defence minister Premitha Tennakoon did not specify how many citizens were fighting on each side of the conflict.

Colombo has remained neutral in the Ukraine war, but reports that Russian authorities supported the recruitment of ex-soldiers from Sri Lanka have sparked tensions.

Police have arrested two retired Sri Lankan generals for illegally acting as recruiting agents for Russian mercenary firms, as well as six people who allegedly helped them with logistics.

State minister for foreign affairs Tharaka Balasuriya said Sri Lanka was pushing Ukraine to release prisoners of war, and would send a delegation to Moscow -- but no date has been agreed.

"If Sri Lankans are in a dangerous situation, it’s the duty of the government... to ensure that they are safely returned," Balasuriya said.

Russian ambassador Levan S. Dzhagaryan said "a lot" of visas had been issued to Sri Lankans, but insisted that they had not told the embassy why they wanted to go to Moscow.

"Why are you talking only about Russia?" the ambassador challenged reporters last month in Colombo. "Why don’t you talk about Ukraine?"

At least 22 Sri Lankans who joined Russian forces have managed to desert, escape and return home, defence officials said.

"They were duped," defence ministry spokesman Nalin Herath told AFP.

Hotel driver Anil Madusanka, 37, is one of them.

"Many people have (economic) problems," said Madusanka, now recovering at his home outside Colombo after seven terrifying weeks in Russia. "That’s why they go to Russia or Ukraine."

He thought he would swap driving tourists for a promised job driving in Russia -- but was handed an assault rifle instead and sent to the battlefront to face Ukrainian forces.

He was wounded by shrapnel that tore into both his legs.

From a hospital, he fled to the Sri Lankan embassy in Moscow, which arranged his repatriation last month.

"I am lucky to have escaped," he said.
Central Asia
China to help Central Asian states mitigate impact of floods, earthquakes and other hazards (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [6/10/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Positive]
China and the five states of Central Asia are creating a mechanism to improve responses to natural disasters.

The heads of emergency-response agencies for all six nations signed a cooperation agreement following a meeting in the western Chinese city of Urumqi. The pact establishes a working group to mitigate risks and develop more efficient natural disaster response plans.

“This mechanism will serve as a new platform for deepening mutually beneficial and practical cooperation among the six countries,” the Business Kazakhstan outlet quoted a statement by China’s Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM) as saying. “China is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with the five Central Asian countries in the field of emergency management to contribute to building a closer China-Central Asia community with a shared future.”

There also may be an anti-terror/security element contained in the proposal. Wang Manda, an MEM representative, indicated that the agreement envisions the holding of joint emergency-response exercises to address potential “accidents” involving oil and natural gas pipelines.

“Over the past year, as part of the China-Central Asia emergency management cooperation, the Chinese side has held a number of events, including forums of high-level think tanks on emergency management, workshops on improving industrial safety, and exchanges of experience in the field of preventing security risks,” a report published by the official Chinese news agency Xinhua stated.

Tajikistan’s top disaster-management official, Rustam Nazarzoda, lauded the agreement, saying it will “help deepen integration processes and expand cooperation in the field of disaster risk reduction,” according to the country’s official Khovar news agency.

A World Bank report issued in late 2023 noted that Central Asia is a region “highly exposed to natural hazards, especially floods, earthquakes and landslides.”

The report added that “the annual average population affected by floods in these countries reaches almost 1 million, while the annual average population affected by earthquakes is almost 2 million. In the last 20 years, these disasters have caused losses in excess of US$ 1.5bn.”

Earlier this year, flooding across Central Asia displaced tens of thousands of citizens and caused extensive property damage.
Toqaev’s Kazakhstan Still Fighting Fires 5 Years After Replacing Nazarbaev (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [6/10/2024 2:35 PM, Chris Rickleton, 1530K, Neutral]
A change in order to keep things the same.

Commentators local and foreign uttered various versions of this assessment after first President Nursultan Nazarbaev shocked his population in March 2019 with the announcement that he would be stepping down from a post he had held for almost three decades.

As he exited the office -- but not political life completely -- he ushered a loyal career diplomat with vast political experience into the role of head of state ahead of a snap presidential election.

The protests that accompanied acting incumbent Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev’s victory on June 9 of that year were the biggest in Kazakhstan’s history at the time, triggering thousands of detentions in the capital, Astana, and the largest city, Almaty.

But it was the much larger unrest in January 2022 -- leaving at least 238 people dead and featuring a stabilizing intervention from a Russia-led regional peacekeeping force -- that has defined his five-year presidency to date.

And with Toqaev pledging he will not run beyond 2029, when his current seven-year term ends, the question of whether his administration can avoid a repeat of those events in the second half of his reign remains ever-present.

‘An Advocate Of Manual Control’

Even before the 2022 events popularly termed Bloody January, Toqaev has made subtle attempts to distance himself from Nazarbaev, who retained key leadership positions as well as the honorific "elbasy" -- leader of the nation -- all the way up until the protests.

In the first months of his presidency, Toqaev coined the phrase "the listening state" as a policymaking guideline.

If in English it carried unfortunate connotations of surveillance, the Russian and Kazakh equivalent was intended to convey a new responsiveness and, perhaps, an admission that authorities had not always heard its populace.

In 2020, he oversaw the passage of a new law governing freedom of assembly in a country where demonstrations were effectively illegal unless expressly permitted.

The new law was presented by his administration as a significant change, but international rights watchdog Human Rights Watch was unconvinced, calling it "hardly an improvement" on the old system.

That verdict proved correct, as four years later the government can still find a pretext to block a protest that might be viewed as politically sensitive.

Until administrative measures don’t work, that is.

Bloody January began with protests over a sudden and dramatic increase in the cost of liquified petroleum gas in the western province of Mangystau, an oil-rich but economically depressed region.

The unrest subsequently spread to other parts of the country, becoming more broadly political and evolving into armed clashes that many observers attributed to a power struggle between relatives of the former president and his hand-picked successor, Toqaev.

And while Toqaev used the aftermath of the events to bring in a political era without Nazarbaev and his prominent family -- the focus of the protests as they spread -- he now carries the can of being the official who acknowledged issuing a "shoot to kill" order at the peak of the unrest.

"I said in 2019 that it was naive to expect him to break a system that he is a product of -- a system that, as a top official, he helped build," independent political analyst Dosym Satpaev told RFE/RL.

"Now, even the part of the population that believed in a reset in Toqaev’s ‘New Kazakhstan’ sees that there has been no cleaning out of the inefficient bureaucracy, no cleaning out of oligarchs, that political repression continues, and that that there is no team of reformers surrounding the president," he said.

Yet the biggest problem of all, argues Satpaev, is the absence of strong institutions that might help the country weather a future crisis.

"Like Nazarbaev, Toqaev is an advocate of manual control. If Nazarbaev’s system rested on four pillars -- the ruling family, the security bloc, the ineffective bureaucracy, and the oligarchs -- then Toqaev’s system is exactly the same, just without the ruling family. You could even argue that from a regime perspective, a four-legged stool is more stable than a three-legged one."

Polling conducted last year by the German-funded, Almaty-based pollster Demoscope gave Toqaev a nearly 70 percent approval rating.

The same pollster found that 87 percent of citizens evaluated Nazarbaev’s reign positively in 2019 after his resignation -- less than three years before the January unrest.

‘Buffeted By Events’

Toqaev was only one of several top decision-makers at the time Bloody January struck, with Nazarbaev, now 83, confusingly retaining his "leader of the nation" title.

The former president’s relatives were still prominent, and Nazarbaev proxies occupied top posts elsewhere in government.

Victory in the high-stakes political confrontation that the protests brought to a boil allowed him to become a president in more than just name.

That does not mean that his reign has not been disproportionately shaped by circumstances beyond his control, however.

This is particularly true when it comes to economic and foreign policy, experts say.

"Toqaev has inherited a very difficult economic position that has been made worse by recent events such as COVID, the war in Ukraine, and the global inflationary situation," said Ben Godwin, head of analysis at the London-based PRISM think tank.

"While the government’s plans on paper are quite sound, the reality of what it has had to do in terms of reacting to these crises, coupled with its fear of popular unrest, has meant that its handling of the economy has been far from ideal," he said.

Ultimately, deeper, liberalizing reforms as well as investment into aging energy infrastructure should have been enacted under Nazarbaev’s presidency "during the commodities supercycle, i.e., before 2014," said Godwin, to achieve things that are harder to get in an economy where prices are rising, job creation is slow, and budget revenues are falling short, the analyst added.

But while authorities may feel "buffeted by events," what Godwin calls "fiscal pressure" on businesses is dimming investor interest in the Kazakh market.

In this regard, the most obvious red flag is the government’s $150 billion challenge against investors operating Kashagan, one of the world’s largest oil fields, noted Godwin.

"It’s an extraordinarily large claim. Nobody will say that the Kashagan project has been an easy project. There have been huge delays and cost overruns. But the idea that you would sue investors for more than the project’s build value sends a really negative message [to other investors]."

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and pursuant Western sanctions against Moscow, Astana’s largest trading partner when the war broke out, has meant challenges for Kazakh diplomacy and the economy.

The Kremlin had likely expected instant repayment for its support to Toqaev and his team during the Bloody January crisis in the form of overt support for the war.

When that wasn’t forthcoming, Russian pundits and lawmakers piled pressure on their neighbor, both for Astana’s neutrality over the war and what they framed ominously as rising "Russophobia" in Kazakh society, sometimes openly questioning whether Kazakhstan and its multinational population might be "next."

For all that background noise, Astana has managed to balance its relations with China, Russia, and the West despite increasing geopolitical tensions in a reminder of Toqaev’s strong suit.

Last month Toqaev -- the former foreign minister and ex-United Nations deputy secretary-general -- penned a hopeful opinion piece for the Euronews news agency on the role of "middle powers" like Kazakhstan in upholding international cooperation.

"Unburdened by the complexities of superpower politics, our agility enables us to navigate intricate diplomatic terrains and carve paths toward compromise and reconciliation," he wrote.

Time will tell if he can do the same at home.
Imprisoned Former Kazakh PM Asks President For Clemency (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [6/10/2024 8:00 AM, Staff, 1530K, Negative]
Karim Masimov, a once-powerful politician who twice served as Kazakhstan’s prime minister, has officially asked President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev for clemency from a treason conviction dating to when he was the chief of the National Security Committee (KNB).

Informburo.kz website quoted KNB officials on June 10 as saying that Masimov, who is serving an 18-year prison sentence on charges of high treason and attempting to seize power during unrest in 2022, had filed papers asking for a presidential pardon in March.

The officials added that Masimov still faces charges of bribe-taking and money laundering, which are currently under investigation.

Masimov, a close ally of former President Nursultan Nazarbaev, was jailed in April 2023 over his role in deadly events that followed unprecedented anti-government protests in the former Soviet republic in January 2022.

The protests began in the southwestern town of Zhanaozen in January 2022 over a sudden fuel price hike. But the demonstrations, fueled by anger over corruption, political stagnation, and widespread injustice, quickly grew.

Much of the protesters’ ire appeared directed at Nazarbaev, who ruled Kazakhstan from 1989 until March 2019, when he handed over power to President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev. However, Nazarbaev was widely believed to remain in control behind the scenes.

The protests were violently dispersed by police and military personnel, including troops of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization whom Toqaev invited into the country claiming that "20,000 extremists who were trained in terrorist camps abroad" had attacked Almaty.

The authorities have provided no evidence proving Toqaev’s claim about foreign terrorists.
Tajik authorities keep fiddling as economy smolders (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [6/10/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
In striving to counteract the country’s image as a font of Islamic militantism, Tajikistan’s leaders are dodging underlying economic problems. Instead, they keep attacking the issue around its edges.

The spotlight has been on Dushanbe since March, when Tajik militants carried out an attack on a Moscow concert venue that left over 140 innocent civilians dead. Two Tajiks were also implicated in an earlier 2024 suicide bombing in Iran that killed 95, and was carried out by the Islamic militant group Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K.

Throughout the spring, Tajik President Imomali Rahmon’s administration has relied on repressive tactics while trying to convince the outside world that it has Islamic radicalism under control. Authorities’ latest move to contain radical Islam in Central Asia’s poorest nation is the pending adoption of a formal ban on the wearing of hijabs. For those working in public-sector jobs, at the bazaar or in higher education, informal bans have long existed on the wearing of hijabs by women and the wearing of beards by men. But now the Tajik parliament is in the final stage of making things official via the adoption of amendments to a law covering national traditions.

A reliance on repression is nothing new for Tajik authorities. The government has for years resorted to forceful measures to keep a lid on all forms of religious expression not conforming with beliefs explicitly endorsed by the state. Further tightening the screws is unlikely to have the desired effect of containing dissenting beliefs and practices, many regional observers believe. A root cause of the growth of militant actions is the lack of economic opportunities for most citizens, they add.

Writing in the journal Foreign Affairs, a leading scholar of Central Asia, George Washington University professor Marlene Lauruelle, contends the tightly controlled version of Islam endorsed by the Tajik state isn’t meeting the spiritual needs of the population, a majority of which is living at or below the poverty line. Tajikistan’s official Islam is facing growing competition from “a more religious, universalist and rebellious interpretation of Islam,” Lauruelle adds.

“For many in the younger generations in Tajikistan, Islam offers an attractive code of morality and discipline, a shelter from the immiseration and repression in their country,” Lauruelle writes.

She stresses that the Islamic beliefs now gaining popularity inside the country and, crucially, among the hundreds of thousands of Tajik labor migrants working in Russia and elsewhere, are not a “harbinger” of Islamic militant behavior. She argues “social marginalization” is a stronger driver of militantism among Tajiks than “religious fervor.”

A continuing crackdown on Islam in Tajikistan “will not end rural poverty, the humiliating lives that migrants lead, the lack of economic opportunities, the dissatisfaction of young people, or the difficulties migrants face integrating into host societies,” Lauruelle asserts. The implication is that Tajikistan needs to address the economic root causes of popular frustration, if it is serious about wanting to counter militantism’s appeal.

At present, the economic picture is bleak for Tajikistan, and conditions look unlikely to improve in the near future.

A growth outlook issued by the Asian Development Bank in April contained a litany of grim news. Economic growth is projected to “decelerate” in 2024-25, according to the bank, “due to weaker remittances, fiscal space constraints, and subdued global demand for Tajikistan’s major export commodities.” Accordingly, the GDP growth rate is forecast to reach 6.5 percent in 2024, down from 8.3 percent the previous year, a 1.8 percent year-on-year decline.

At the same time, the threat of food insecurity is rising for many Tajiks, as the agricultural sector comes under mounting stress from a growing population and an increasing shortage of arable land. Climate change and global warming also is causing glaciers to melt at a rapid rate, a major source of concern for a country “heavily dependent on glacier-fed rivers for hydropower generation,” according to an ADB statement.

“Tajikistan faces significant climate challenges and risks that could lead to irreversible economic, social, and environmental damage,” the statement quotes the bank’s country director for Tajikistan, Shanny Campbell, as saying. “Developing a green economy is key for the country’s sustainable growth.”
Leaders of Korea, Turkmenistan to discuss economy, energy (Korea Herald)
Korea Herald [6/10/2024 6:19 AM, Son Ji-hyoung, 917K, Positive]
The leaders of South Korea and Turkmenistan on Monday agreed to deepen the "mutually beneficial partnership" of the two countries, which could allow more South Korean companies to join the Central Asian country’s construction and infrastructure projects.

At a summit held in the capital of Turkmenistan, President Yoon Suk Yeol and his counterpart Serdar Berdymukhamedov also agreed to diversify bilateral cooperation through eight documents signed to boost bilateral private-sector engagement in the energy industry, trade and the digital economy and people-to-people exchanges.

Seoul and Ashgabat also agreed to work to facilitate the "Joint Commission of Cooperation" to strengthen exchanges in the fields of economy, trade, science, technology and culture. A nonbinding agreement was also signed between South Korea’s Land Ministry and the city of Ashgabat for infrastructure and urban development.

In the private sector, South Korean plant builder Hyundai Engineering joined a framework agreement to expand wells and a natural gas processing facility for desulfurization on the Galkynish Gas Field in Mary Province of Turkmenistan, which is 350 kilometers east of Ashgabat.

Another cooperation agreement was also signed by Hyundai Engineering to restore to full capacity the operations of the Kiyanly Polymer Plant on the Caspian coast near Turkmenbashi, about 550 kilometers northwest of Ashgabat. The plant has suspended its operations since 2023 due to a fire, according to Yoon’s office.

Also, a working group will be established to foster joint research in the field of clinical oncology and emergency first aid between Kyungpook National University Chilgok Hospital and the Turkmen health care authorities.

The agreement to fortify the "mutually beneficial partnership" is aimed at widening the scope of the bilateral cooperation from gas and chemicals to shipbuilding, textiles, logistics, telecommunications and environmental protection, according to Seoul. The two countries forged the partnership in 2008.

These were enshrined in the joint statement that Yoon and Berdymukhamedov adopted after the summit.

The two leaders also reached a consensus that a peaceful solution to North Korea’s nuclear threat and a complete denuclearization of Pyongyang will contribute to peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and in the world.

The leaders also acknowledged a need to establish a "friendly environment" for Daewoo Engineering & Construction to build two fertilizer plants, each producing urea and ammonia, in Kiyanly, Turkmenbashi of western Turkmenistan.

It was the second time for Yoon to meet Berdymukamedov, after their first encounter at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

Park Chun-sup, senior presidential secretary for economic affairs, said in a briefing Friday that the state visit to Turkmenistan will "lay out an institutional foundation" to boost trade, given that Turkmenistan "is seeking to nurture its petrochemicals industry and other energy-related industries" to end its dependency on natural gas exports.

South Korea and Turkmenistan established diplomatic ties in 1992, just a year after Turkmenistan declared independence, and forged a "mutually beneficial partnership" in 2008 to allow more South Korean firms to engage in energy and chemical plant construction projects in Turkmenistan.

As of 2023, the annual trade volume between South Korea and Turkmenistan amounted to $17 million.

Seoul has pointed to the growth potential of the country, the gas reserves of which are estimated to represent about 10 percent of the world’s reserves -- the fourth most in the world -- according to World Bank figures. Nearly three-fourths of Turkmenistan’s exports stem from its gas industry.

Yoon is the third South Korean head of state to have visited the country of some 7 million, according to the presidential office. Since former President Park Geun-hye visited Turkmenistan in 2014, every South Korean leader has followed suit.

Yoon is visiting Central Asia for the first time since his inauguration in May 2022. He also will visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan later this week.

The trips are expected to help more South Korean firms foray into the region and lay the groundwork for dialogue. In the meantime, South Korea, a global electronics and automotive manufacturing powerhouse that lacks domestic natural resources, is looking to ensure critical minerals supply chain stability with bolstered ties in the Central Asian region.

Later Monday, Yoon visited the National Independence Park in Ashgabat for a flower-laying ceremony, commemorating Turkmenistan’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Yoon is scheduled to attended a state dinner hosted by the 42-year-old Turkmen president who in 2022 succeeded his father, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who now leads the independent People’s Council of Turkmenistan, which has the power to amend the constitution.

Monday’s event marks Yoon’s first diplomatic engagement overseas since December, when Yoon and Kim visited the Netherlands to discuss a semiconductor partnership.

Yoon’s plan to visit Germany and Denmark in February was postponed, according to a presidential office announcement just four days before the scheduled departure. Yoon’s office has yet to disclose the rescheduled date.

Yoon is to depart Turkmenistan on Tuesday after attending a business forum involving the two countries’ business leaders and meeting the People’s Council Chair Berdymukamedov, also known as the "national leader.”
Twitter
Afghanistan
UNAMA News
@UNAMAnews
[6/10/2024 7:24 AM, 308.5K followers, 5 retweets, 12 likes]
Today in Kabul, SRSG in #Afghanistan, Roza Otunbayeva alongside @UNODC, visited the Jangalak Drug Treatment Center. She toured various sections & participated in the donation of essential medicines, reaffirming #UN’s commitment to supporting drug addiction treatment & wellbeing.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[6/11/2024 2:14 AM, 62.5K followers, 4 retweets, 6 likes]
Many Afghan WHRDs have even called for a boycott of negotiations w/Taliban until women’s rights are restored. Doha 3 offers a decisive opportunity to demonstrate to all Afghans that their human rights are not a bargaining chip. https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/10/letter-un-security-council-and-member-states-womens-rights-afghanistan

Jahanzeb Wesa
@Jahanzi12947158
[6/10/2024 3:37 PM, 2.5K followers, 13 retweets, 22 likes]
Reports: A group of women from the Independent Coalition of Afghan Women’s Protest Movements held a protest in Islamabad on Monday to voice their opposition to the upcoming Doha meeting and the potential presence of the Taliban. #Afghanistan #AfghanWomenRights #UN

Jahanzeb Wesa
@Jahanzi12947158
[6/10/2024 8:30 AM, 2.5K followers, 2 retweets, 5 likes]
Reports: Taliban has closed the Baran Health Institute in Bamiyan province! This incident occurs against the backdrop of the Taliban’s ongoing restrictions on girls and women, barring them from schools, universities, & other educational institutions. #Afghanistan #Women #Learn
Pakistan
Imran Khan
@ImranKhanPTI
[6/9/2024 11:18 AM, 20.7M followers, 20K retweets, 36K likes]
I am at a loss of words when condemning the brutal slaughter of Palestinians. The ongoing genocide of the Palestinians must end immediately, and all perpetrators & their facilitators be held accountable before an international tribunal on the pattern of the Nuremberg trials of the Nazis.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[6/10/2024 1:25 PM, 42.7K followers, 6 likes]
Long, wide-ranging readout from Pakistani PM’s visit to China, affirms "solid as a rock, and as unshakable as a mountain" relationship between the two countries. Notable: "The two sides jointly advocated an equal and orderly multipolar world." https://mofa.gov.pk/press-releases/joint-statement-between-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan-and-the-peoples-republic-of-china

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[6/10/2024 3:59 AM, 73.4K followers, 3 retweets, 21 likes]
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister @MIshaqDar50 to undertake two-day visit to Jordan on 10-11 June 2024 to participate in the high-level conference “Call for Action: Urgent Humanitarian Response for Gaza”, announces @ForeignOfficePk.
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[6/10/2024 12:13 PM, 98.6M followers, 7.5K retweets, 50K likes]
A boost for ‘Ease of Living’ and dignity for crores of Indians! The Cabinet has decided to further expand the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and construct 3 crore additional rural and urban houses. This decision underscores the government’s commitment to addressing the housing needs of our nation and ensuring that every citizen leads a better quality of life. The expansion of PMAY also highlights our government’s commitment to inclusive growth and social welfare.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[6/10/2024 7:37 AM, 98.6M followers, 3.4K retweets, 36K likes]
Congratulations to Shri @PSTamangGola on taking oath as the Chief Minister of Sikkim. Wishing him a fruitful tenure and looking forward to working with him for Sikkim’s progress.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[6/10/2024 11:29 PM, 98.6M followers, 3.8K retweets, 29K likes]
In ten days from now, the world will mark the 10th International Day of Yoga, celebrating a timeless practice that celebrates oneness and harmony. Yoga has transcended cultural and geographical boundaries, uniting millions across the globe in the pursuit of holistic well-being.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/10/2024 11:20 PM, 3.1M followers, 5.2K retweets, 56K likes]
Assumed charge as the Minister of External Affairs. Thank PM @narendramodi for assigning me this responsibility.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/11/2024 2:55 AM, 3.1M followers, 57 retweets, 730 likes]
Welcomed Ministers of State @KVSinghMPGonda and @PmargheritaBJP to #TeamMEA.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/10/2024 1:57 PM, 3.1M followers, 433 retweets, 4K likes]
An important decision taken in the 1st meeting of Cabinet of Modi 3.0. Expansion of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana will help constructing 30 million additional rural and urban houses. Decision underlines commitment of PM @narendramodi’s Government to providing better quality of life to all, especially those who need it the most. #CabinetDecisions

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/10/2024 11:24 AM, 3.1M followers, 3.9K retweets, 31K likes]
Deeply honored to be appointed as the Minister of External Affairs in PM @narendramodi’s Government. Welcome colleagues MoS @KVSinghMPGonda & MoS @PmargheritaBJP to the Ministry. #TeamMEA has worked over the last decade on a people-centric foreign policy. Our commitment to Bharat First and Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam will facilitate the making of a Vishwabandhu Bharat.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/10/2024 4:34 AM, 3.1M followers, 530 retweets, 8.2K likes]
Great to meet PM Tshering Tobgay of Bhutan. Spoke about our unique and multifaceted friendship. @tsheringtobgay

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[6/10/2024 4:31 AM, 3.1M followers, 303 retweets, 4.1K likes]
So glad to call on PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ of Nepal. Discussed the growing various facets of India-Nepal cooperation. @cmprachanda
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[6/11/2024 1:09 AM, 638.7K followers, 7 retweets, 23 likes]
Hon’ble Prime Minister Jannetri Sheikh Hasina joined the inauguration of the housing transfer program among 18566 landless-homeless families under Asharyan-2 project through video conferencing #ALBDLive #SheikhHasina

Awami League
@albd1971
[6/10/2024 12:37 PM, 638.7K followers, 18 retweets, 72 likes]
The Bangladesh-India friendship bridge known as Maitri Setu, inaugurated by PM #SheikhHasina and PM @narendramodi virtually on March 9, 2021, will go into operation by September. Built over the Feni River, the bridge connects Ramgarh in #Bangladesh with Sabroom in #India.

Awami League
@albd1971
[6/10/2024 7:22 AM, 638.7K followers, 30 retweets, 176 likes]
The President of Sri Lanka Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe paid a courtesy call to PM #SheikhHasina today at the ITC Hotel in Delhi. During the meeting, PM sought Lankan investment in Bangladesh’s tourism sector.@MFA_SriLanka @RW_UN @BDMOFA

Awami League
@albd1971
[6/10/2024 5:59 AM, 638.7K followers, 57 retweets, 377 likes]
PM #SheikhHasina has held a bilateral talk with the PM of India @narendramodi. During the meeting, she invited PM Modi to visit #Bangladesh. Regional Director of @WHOSEARO and daughter of PM Hasina Ms @drSaimaWazed was also present at the meeting.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[6/10/2024 11:13 PM, 108.6K followers, 126 retweets, 143 likes]
President Dr Muizzu concludes his official visit to India and returns to Male’ https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/31010

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[6/10/2024 7:29 AM, 108.6K followers, 173 retweets, 204 likes]
President His Excellency Dr @MMuizzu meets with the President of India, Her Excellency Droupadi Murmu. The meeting took place at Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi, India today. During the meeting, both Presidents underscored the importance of working together for the development and prosperity of both nations.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[6/10/2024 5:29 AM, 108.6K followers, 146 retweets, 182 likes]
Union Cabinet Minister of India H.E. @DrSJaishankar calls on President H.E. Dr @MMuizzu this morning. Speaking at the meeting, the President congratulated the Union Cabinet Minister of India on his appointment. The President and the Minister discussed potential areas of further collaboration between the two countries.

Comrade Prachanda
@cmprachanda
[6/10/2024 3:31 AM, 415.7K followers, 24 retweets, 282 likes]
Pleasure to meet H.E. Smt. Draupadi Murmu, the President of India, this morning. We had an opportunity to discuss the wide range of Nepal-India relations and enhancing mutual cooperation.

Comrade Prachanda
@cmprachanda
[6/10/2024 8:25 AM, 415.7K followers, 19 retweets, 162 likes]
A good meeting with H.E. @DrSJaishankar, Union Minister of the Government of India in New Delhi today. We discussed on further consolidating Nepal-India relations and promoting development cooperation and partnership in the days ahead.

Ranil Wickremesinghe
@RW_UNP
[6/11/2024 3:29 AM, 319.9K followers, 1 retweet, 13 likes]
I joined leaders from India’s neighborhood and the Indian Ocean region, reflecting India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, to attend Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony for his third consecutive term as Prime Minister on Sunday at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. I extend my heartfelt congratulations to Prime Minister @narendramodi, wishing him success as he begins his third term, earned through the trust and confidence the Indian people have placed in him.

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[6/11/2024 1:26 AM, 5.6K followers, 3 likes]
Met with Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu on the sidelines of the #BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod., #Russia. We had fruitful discussions on strengthening our bilateral relationship. Excited to announce that #SriLanka will establish its first mission in Central Asia in Astana soon. @MFA_KZ @MFA_SriLanka

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[6/10/2024 1:23 AM, 5.6K followers]
Good to meet with Dr. Ali Bagheri Kani, the acting Iranian Foreign Minister, on the sidelines of the BRICS ministerial meeting in #Russia. We reaffirmed our commitment to strengthening our partnership as agreed by our leadership. Looking forward to continued collaboration between Sri Lanka and Iran. @IRIMFA @MFA_SriLanka #Diplomacy #BRICS #BRICS2024

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[6/11/2024 1:21 AM, 5.6K followers, 3 likes]
Had a productive discussion with Russian FM Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Ministers conference. We reviewed our bilateral relationship, agreed to enhance cooperation, and addressed issues concerning ex-Sri Lankan servicemen in the Russian military. No further recruitment of ex-servicemen for combat duties will occur. @MID_RF@MFA_SriLanka #BRICS #Diplomacy

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[6/11/2024 1:18 AM, 5.6K followers, 2 likes]
Honored to represent Sri Lanka at the BRICS ministerial meeting in Nizhny Novgorod, #Russia. Excited about fostering strong, mutually beneficial partnerships with BRICS nations. Together, we can achieve greater progress and prosperity. @MFA_SriLanka @BRICS_Secretariat #BRICS2024 #SriLanka"
Central Asia
Asel Doolotkeldieva
@ADoolotkeldieva
[6/10/2024 9:11 AM, 14.1K followers, 6 retweets, 25 likes]
The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad has been long in the discussions in the region, moving to a rhetorical level. But it began gaining real contours last year. In Kyrgyzstan’s gov and parliamentary couloirs, it got a particular frenzy in past months 1/

Asel Doolotkeldieva
@ADoolotkeldieva
[6/10/2024 9:11 AM, 14.1K followers, 3 retweets, 9 likes]
In all my recent interviews with MPs and gov officials, the railroad was mentioned as a mega project super needed to create connectivity for landlocked Central Asian states. Now it is signed, but I will finally believe when we see the funds allocation! 2/2

Saida Mirziyoyeva
@SMirziyoyeva
[6/10/2024 3:34 AM, 18.3K followers, 2 retweets, 39 likes]
At the conference on Friday, May 7th, we exchanged views on #education and explored modern methodologies from our international partners. I hope these ideas will help us improve our local practices and equip teachers for upcoming reforms.

{End of Report}
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