SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO: | SCA & Staff |
DATE: | Friday, July 19, 2024 6:30 AM ET |
Afghanistan
US didn’t keep tabs on $293 million in Afghanistan funding, audit finds (Stars and Stripes)
Stars and Stripes [7/18/2024 10:55 AM, Phillip Walter Wellman, 1290K, Neutral]
Millions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funds intended for development aid in Afghanistan may have helped extremists in the Taliban-run country, a government watchdog agency says. An audit by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction found that two State Department bureaus funding projects in the country couldn’t prove that they had complied with requirements for vetting aid recipients. The Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor and the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement failed to provide proper documentation for at least $293 million of aid they distributed, SIGAR said in a report of its findings released Wednesday.
“There is an increased risk that terrorist and terrorist-affiliated individuals and entities may have illegally benefited from State (Department) spending in Afghanistan,” the report said. The audit examined five bureaus that had active awards in Afghanistan between March and November 2022. Three were able to demonstrate that they had complied with counterterrorism vetting requirements. The State Department acknowledged the other two bureaus’ compliance gaps and, in a statement published with SIGAR’s report, agreed with its recommendation to immediately ensure that proper vetting measures are taken. The U.S. has provided over $2.5 billion in assistance to Afghanistan — through the United Nations, other public international organizations and nongovernmental organizations — since it pulled all of its troops from the country in August 2021 after nearly two decades of fighting. More than $1.7 billion of that funding has come from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development to support humanitarian activities implemented by other organizations, SIGAR said.International donors paused aid to Afghanistan when international forces withdrew from the country and the Taliban took control. Some aid started to flow back several months later, and humanitarian groups say it’s still desperately needed. About half the country of 43 million people remains trapped in poverty, with 15 million Afghans facing food insecurity, according to an April report by the World Bank. But the Taliban have tried to obtain U.S. aid funds “through several means, including the establishment of nongovernmental organizations,” SIGAR said. The attempts to siphon off the money underscore the need for the State Department to “fully and consistently assess the risks posed by its implementing partners.” The findings of a separate SIGAR investigation published in May showed that at least $10.9 million in U.S. taxpayer money had ended up in the hands of the Taliban since international forces withdrew, largely through taxes that partners paid to the group.The Afghan Taliban are not a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, but the group maintains close ties with al-Qaida, according to U.S. assessments. In July 2022, the U.S. killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul. The Haqqani Network, which is a designated foreign terrorist organization and a longtime ally of al-Qaida, is also an official semi-autonomous component of the Taliban.
“As State continues to spend U.S. taxpayer funds on programs intended to benefit the Afghan people, it is critical that (it) knows who is actually benefiting from this assistance in order to prevent the aid from being diverted to the Taliban or other sanctioned parties,” SIGAR said. Pakistan
Pakistan arrests Al-Qaeda leader for sabotage plans (Reuters)
Reuters [7/19/2024 3:57 AM, Mubasher Bukhari, 5.2M, Neutral]
Pakistani counter-terror officials have arrested an Al-Qaeda leader, Amin ul Haq, describing him as a close associate of the dead Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks on the United States.
The Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) in the most populous province of Punjab said it had registered a legal case against ul Haq, accusing him of having planned sabotage targeting important installations in the province.
"In a significant breakthrough in the fight against terrorism, CTD, in collaboration with intelligence agencies, successfully apprehended Amin ul Haq, a senior leader of Al-Qaeda," the department’s spokesperson added in a statement.
Bin Laden was killed in 2011 during a U.S. raid on his hideout in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad. Journalist deaths in Pakistan reach 8, trending toward record year (VOA)
VOA [7/18/2024 11:17 AM, Ayaz Gul, 4032K, Negative]
Pakistan has reported the killing of an eighth journalist in 2024 and is poised to encounter its deadliest year for media practitioners.The latest victim is Malik Hassan Zaib, a 40-year-old reporter with a privately owned newspaper in Peshawar, the capital of the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.Area police officials said that Zaib and his brother were traveling through the nearby Nowshera district last Sunday when two unidentified gunmen on a motorbike intercepted their car and fatally shot the journalist.He is the third journalist to die in the violence-hit Pakistani province this year, bringing the number of media workers killed nationwide in 2024 to eight.The intensified violence against journalists has outraged national and international media freedom advocates, who are demanding that Islamabad investigate and bring to justice those responsible.The Committee to Protect Journalists, a U.S.-based global media rights group, denounced Zaib’s murder, saying that it was alarmed by the surge in the killing of journalists in the South Asian nation.“Authorities in Pakistan must immediately end this horrifying wave of violence and hold the perpetrators of the killing of journalist Malik Hassan Zaib to account,” said Carlos Martínez de la Serna, the CPJ program director.He added, “The continued impunity for those who attack journalists is creating an atmosphere of fear and intimidation in Pakistan, which prevents the practice of free and independent journalism.”The CPJ said that it is investigating the motives behind the attacks.There have been no claims of responsibility for the violence, and local activists said that at least half of the journalists were killed because of their reporting.The Press Emblem Campaign, a Geneva-based international media safety and rights organization, condemned Zaib’s killing and expressed its dismay over the relentless deadly attacks on journalists in Pakistan. It noted that Zaib became the 71st journalist to be murdered in the world in 2024.Blaise Lempen, the PEC president, pressed Pakistani authorities to apprehend the reporter’s killers and punish them under the law.“We extend our moral support to the agitating Pakistani media bodies for justice to the victim,” Lempen said. He demanded that “the culture of immunity to the murders must be demolished in Pakistan as early as possible."The PEC, in its statement, also identified all eight journalists Pakistan lost to assailants thus far in 2024. Four of them were killed in May alone.Pakistan dropped two places to 152 of 180 countries in this year’s World Press Freedom Index, published by Reporters Without Borders.The index described the South Asian nation as “one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists, with three to four murders each year that are often linked to cases of corruption or illegal trafficking and which go completely unpunished."The Freedom Network, an Islamabad-based advocate group for press freedom, said in a recent report that 53 journalists were killed in Pakistan from 2012 to 2022. It noted that the southern Sindh province had the highest number of fatalities, with 16 deaths, followed by the most populous Punjab province, with 14 fatalities. It added that only two of the 53 cases had led to convictions, both of which were later overturned.“In the remaining 96% of the cases, the criminal justice system hopelessly failed to deliver justice for the slain journalists and their bereaved families,” the report noted.While the Pakistani military and its intelligence agencies are routinely accused of orchestrating attacks on journalists who criticize them, influential feudal lords and politicians are also blamed for targeting media practitioners with the help of highly politicized police forces in their native areas.The military and successive governments in Pakistan have persistently denied any involvement in violence against journalists or stifling media freedoms at large.Social media curbsMeanwhile, Pakistan has blocked X, formerly known as Twitter, since February, citing “national security” concerns. Top government officials, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, however, continue to tweet official announcements through the social media platform despite the ban.A privately run major internet service provider in Islamabad on Thursday confirmed that nationwide, Facebook and Instagram services have been disrupted for the last two days.The company emailed its customers to inform them that they “have requested and are waiting for a reply” from the state-run Pakistan Telecommunication Authority regarding “the reasons for this blockage and when this ban will be lifted.”Pakistani authorities had announced suspending mobile phone service in parts of the country, including the national capital, to deter extremist attacks during the annual two-day minority Shiite Muslim rituals, which ended on Wednesday.The federal government has not immediately explained the reason for Facebook and Instagram’s continued suspension, even though mobile phone services have been restored.Earlier this month, the Sharif government formally authorized the military-run Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s main spy agency, to intercept citizens’ phone calls and messages, citing national security concerns.The controversial move sparked widespread outrage, with legal experts denouncing it as unconstitutional and an assault on the dignity of Pakistanis. ‘Widespread Fear’: Spate Of Killings In Pakistan’s Restive Northwest Targets Journalists (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [7/18/2024 4:14 PM, Khalida Niaz and Frud Bezhan, 235K, Neutral]
Hassan Zeb was in his car when two unidentified gunmen on a motorcycle opened fire and killed him in broad daylight.
The brazen attack occurred on July 14 outside Peshawar, the capital of the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Zeb is the third reporter to be killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a restive region bordering Afghanistan that has witnessed rising militant attacks, in recent months.
Overall, eight journalists have been killed in the South Asian nation of some 240 million people in 2024, a record number, highlighting the growing threats to media workers.‘I Heard The Gunfire’
Zeb’s brother, Anwar, witnessed the attack that occurred in the district of Nowshera.“I was purchasing something from a shop while Hassan was sitting in the car,” he told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal. “I heard the gunfire and saw that he was shot. I didn’t recognize the motorcyclists who attacked my brother.”
Anwar Zeb said his brother -- a father of six who worked for the Peshawar-based Aaj newspaper -- did not have any enemies and had not received threats to his life.
Reporters staged a protest against the killing of Zeb on July 15, accusing the authorities of doing little to protect media workers.
The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) and its affiliate, the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ), strongly condemned Zeb’s killing in a statement on July 15 and called on the Pakistani government to protect journalists amid what they described as “rampant violence and impunity.”
String Of KillingsZeb’s killing came after Khalil Afridi was shot dead on June 18 by hooded armed men, who had stopped the reporter’s car and opened fire.
Police said Afridi was on his way home from a picnic area with a friend in the district of Khyber when the incident occurred.
Afridi worked for the Pashto-language Khyber TV and was a civil society activist. Afridi’s family said he had survived two previous attempts on his life. They said he had received threats before his death.
A month earlier, freelance journalist Kamran Dawar was killed by unidentified gunmen in front of his home in the district of North Waziristan.
Dawar ran a YouTube channel and a Facebook TV news channel called Waziristan TV. Known for his criticism of Pakistan’s all-powerful army, he had received threats before his death.
No group has responsibility for any of the deaths.‘They Face Threats’
Gohar Ali of the Freedom Network, a nongovernmental organization working for media freedom and freedom of expression in Pakistan, said the perpetrators are believed to be militants.“Journalists are also threatened by state actors. [Reporters] cannot work independently, and when they do, they face threats.”
Pakistan is one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists.
The country’s northwest has been the scene of a yearslong insurgency by the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban, extremist group. Other militant groups like Islamic State and Al-Qaeda as well as smaller militant outfits also operate and carry out attacks.
The region has witnessed a sharp rise in militant attacks since the Afghan Taliban seized power in Kabul in 2021, a move that boosted many extremist groups in Pakistan.“The media environment has changed because of such incidents,” said Ali, referring to the spate of killings targeting journalists. “There is widespread fear among the journalism community, and [reporters] cannot report [freely and] independently.”
International media watchdogs have also documented the increasing repression of freedom of expression and the intimidation of journalists.
Over 300 journalists and bloggers this year were affected by state coercion and targeted, including eight who were charged with alleged sedition, terrorism and incitement to violence, according to the IFJ’s annual press freedom report, which was released in May.
The report also noted “largescale restrictions on the Internet and social-media access.” What’s behind Pakistan’s move to ban Imran Khan’s PTI? (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [7/18/2024 11:06 AM, Abid Hussain, 20871K, Negative]
Just last month, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif extended an olive branch to the leadership of the country’s main opposition, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), during his speech in the National Assembly.“In 76 years since Pakistan’s independence, we’ve reached a point where we even hesitate to shake hands with one another,” Sharif said on June 26, lamenting the deep political divide in the country.Yet, less than a month later, on July 15, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced in a press conference in Islamabad that the government was considering banning the PTI, citing accusations of inciting violent protests last year and leaking classified information. The PTI is led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was in power from 2018 to 2022.“The government has decided to ban PTI after reviewing all available evidence. We will move a case to ban the party,” he stated.The announcement by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) government drew widespread condemnation not only from its rivals but also from its allies and human rights groups. Even the United States expressed its concerns.Leaders of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the second-largest party in the ruling coalition, said they were not consulted before the announcement.“We were never taken on board, nor have they reached out to us since. We found out about the government’s decision through the information minister’s press conference,” PPP Senator Saleem Mandviwalla told Al Jazeera.The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), the country’s foremost rights body, called the decision an act of “political desperation”.“HRCP demands that this unconstitutional decision be withdrawn immediately. If implemented, it will only deepen polarisation and likely lead to political chaos and violence,” the commission stated.Facing a torrent of criticism, the PMLN leadership has backtracked — at least for now — saying the final decision would not be taken without consulting the ruling coalition’s allies.“There are multiple factors behind the proposal to ban PTI, but we will first present our reasons for banning to our allies. Only when there is consensus will we move forward with further actions,” Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told Al Jazeera.But why did the government announce plans for a ban in the first place?Many observers believe the plan to ban the PTI, whose leader Imran Khan has been in jail since August last year, was conceived following a Supreme Court verdict last week.The verdict handed a major legal victory to the PTI by declaring it eligible for a share of reserved seats in the national and provincial assemblies. The court also recognised the PTI as a political party, affirming that not having an election symbol does not affect a party’s legal rights to field candidates.The reserved-seat controversy erupted following the country’s general elections in February this year. A month before the polls, the election commission revoked the party’s electoral symbol, a cricket bat, on charges of violating electoral laws. Days before the election, Khan, a former cricket captain and the party’s chief, was sentenced on multiple charges.Despite the setback, the PTI’s candidates, contesting independently, won the most seats (93), compared to the PMLN’s 75 and PPP’s 54. With the reserved seats added after the Supreme Court ruling, the PMLN-led government would no longer have a two-thirds majority in parliament, needed for constitutional amendments.“They [the government] just want to weaken their rival in any way possible, especially as PTI is getting relief from the courts,” Ahmed Ijaz, a political analyst, said.Pakistan has a history of banning political parties under both military dictatorships and civilian administrations. In fact, the last two instances of banning political parties occurred under the PTI government.Sindhi Nationalist party Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz-Aresar was declared banned in May 2020, as the PTI government claimed the party flag was used by a banned outfit that was accused of conducting violent attacks on security personnel. The second party to be banned by the PTI was the far-right religious outfit Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, which was banned in May 2021 following protests in Punjab province that turned violent, killing several policemen. However, the party successfully appealed its ban and in October of the same year, the ban was lifted.Khan, who served as prime minister from August 2018 to April 2022, has since railed against the country’s powerful military establishment, accusing it of colluding with his political rivals to keep him out of power. The military, which has directly ruled Pakistan for more than three decades and retains significant influence in political decision-making, denies these charges.PTI faced a harsh crackdown following the May 9 violence last year, which erupted after Khan was detained for less than 48 hours. PTI supporters went on a rampage, destroying public properties and targeting military installations and monuments. Thousands of protesters were arrested, and more than 100 were tried in secretive military courts.Former PTI Secretary General Asad Umar, who left the party and retired from politics in November 2023, believes the decision to ban PTI will not come to fruition.“I don’t think even PMLN leaders are serious about banning the party,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think this is merely another tactic to buy time and build pressure.”Constitutional expert Faisal Fareed Chaudhry says that under Pakistan’s constitution, political parties can only be banned by the Supreme Court.“The government can file a reference, but the final verdict will be from the Supreme Court. It is important to remember that only last week the court declared PTI a political party,” he told Al Jazeera.Chaudhry further stated that accusations leading to a ban must include evidence of actions against state sovereignty or collusion with a foreign power.“I don’t think the government has substantial evidence to move this case. This is just to pressure the judiciary, which ruled against the government in the reserved seats matter. It appears the government has no plan, nor will this decision worry PTI,” he added.Ijaz, the political analyst, warned that the move to ban the PTI could backfire on the government. “Attempts to ban political parties in the past have not been successful, whether under political regimes or dictatorships, even though those banned were not as strong as PTI,” he added.Asif, the federal minister, asserted that the government has collected ample evidence against PTI to push for a ban. He also pushed back against criticism from the West.“This is an internal matter for us,” he said, “and it should not matter what the global community says about a decision we are making for our domestic affairs, in line with our constitution.” India
Passenger train derails in India, killing at least 2 passengers and injuring 20 others (AP)
AP [7/18/2024 2:53 PM, Staff, 47701K, Negative]
A passenger train derailed on Thursday in northern India, killing at least two passengers and injuring 20 others, a railroad official said. The cause of the accident is being investigated.Naveen Kumar, a state relief commissioner, said dozens of rescuers, a 40-member team of doctors and paramedics, and 15 ambulances have reached the site of the accident. The injured have been moved to hospitals and government health centers in the area, he said.The train was on its way to Dibrugarh, a town in northeastern Assam state, from the northern city of Chandigarh when it derailed near the town of Gonda, causing six coaches to derail and two to overturn, Kumar said. Gonda is about 120 kilometers (70 miles) northeast of Lucknow, the state capital.Television images showed scores of passengers standing next to derailed coaches waiting for rescuers.In June, a cargo train rammed into a passenger train in the eastern state of West Bengal, killing nine people and injuring dozens of others. Investigators said the driver of the cargo train, who was among the dead, disregarded a signal and caused the collision.Last year, a train crash in eastern India killed over 280 people in one of the country’s deadliest accidents in decades.More than 12 million people ride 14,000 trains across India daily, traveling on 64,000 kilometers (40,000 miles) of track. Despite government efforts to improve rail safety, several hundred accidents happen annually, most blamed on human error or outdated signaling equipment. Two people dead after passenger train derails in northern India (Reuters)
Reuters [7/18/2024 6:24 AM, Saurabh Sharma, 42991K, Negative]
At least two people were killed and 20 injured after several coaches of a passenger train jumped the tracks in India’s northern state of Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, authorities said.TV visuals showed coaches of the Chandigarh-Dibrugarh Express, which connects India’s northern states to the eastern state of Assam, on their sides along the tracks, with passengers sitting outside with their luggage.The derailment occurred in Gonda district, more than 100 km (60 miles) from state capital Lucknow.A team of doctors was at the site treating the injured before they were moved to a hospital, the state’s relief commissioner said in a statement.The incident occurred around 2:30 p.m. (0900 GMT) and initial reports said around five coaches had derailed, railways spokesman Pankaj Singh told the ANI news agency."Our first priority is to complete relief and rescue work there as quickly as possible," Singh said.At least 15 people died and dozens were injured last month when a freight train smashed into the rear of a stationary passenger train in the eastern state of West Bengal. India May Cut Budget Deficit Target Slightly After Revenue Boost (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [7/18/2024 7:05 AM, Ruchi Bhatia, 27296K, Positive]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will likely reduce its fiscal deficit target slightly, according to people familiar with the matter, signaling an intent to keep a grip on finances as speculation grows about increasing demands from allies.The gap for the year through March 2025 could be 5% of gross domestic product or even lower, the people said, compared with the 5.1% target set before the national elections. A final decision is expected to be taken in the coming days before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman gives her budget speech on July 23, they said.Modi returned to power only with the support of coalition partners, who have been seeking more money for their states. They have already put demands on the table for more than $15 billion in financial aid for the states they run.While there is pressure to spend more, government finances are boosted by a big dividend transfer from the central bank and healthy tax collections in the world’s fastest-growing major economy, the people said, asking not to be identified before the official budget announcement.A spokesperson for the Finance Ministry didn’t respond to a request seeking comments.A windfall gain of $25 billion in dividend from the central bank has created the headroom for extra spending. Net direct tax collections have also grown at about 20% in the fiscal year through July 11.Economists in a Bloomberg survey also predict the deficit target will be cut to 5%, allowing the government to keep its borrowing unchanged at 14.1 trillion rupees ($169 billion) this fiscal year. A lower-than-expected deficit could give an extra fillip to India’s bond market, where benchmark yields are edging toward a two-year low.India’s fiscal plans are coming under more scrutiny than before after its bonds were included in key global indexes last month. Credit rating companies are considering upgrading India’s debt if the fiscal metrics improve. India, China’s regulation of crypto "weakly correlated" with participation (Axios)
Axios [7/18/2024 6:26 PM, Brady Dale, 15847K, Neutral]
India and China discourage their citizens from participating in cryptocurrency, yet they see strong adoption nevertheless.Why it matters: The two countries are cases for updated research on regulation around the world that shows people are going to find a way to buy cryptocurrency.The Atlantic Council, which is tracking crypto regulation in 60 nations, assessed their impacts using data from Chainalysis, the leading crypto tracking company.It found that whole or partial bans are "weakly correlated" with reducing participation.By the numbers: 33 nations legalized holding cryptocurrency and 27 generally or partially banned it.The world’s two most populous nations have strong crypto sectors despite governments that have discouraged the industry.ChinaChina began its crackdown in 2017. Beijing has restricted certain activities, such as financial firms facilitating payments in cryptocurrency or using blockchains to raise money for startups.Owning cryptocurrency has not been outright prohibited.Chainalysis estimated $86.4 billion in peer-to-peer transactions in China over 12 months through June 2023.China also has one of the largest numbers of people who own cryptocurrency in the world.The intrigue: Some of the most important businesses in the sector are rooted in China.Perhaps most crucially, Beijing-based Bitmain is far and away the market leader in manufacturing Bitcoin mining equipment. What Nvidia is to AI, Bitmain is to Bitcoin.Three of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, Binance, HTX (formerly Huobi) and OKX, started in China.IndiaIn 2018, India’s banking authority banned banks from supporting cryptocurrency trading and investing, though it was reversed by the court in 2020, as more citizens piled into the market.The nation then opted for severe taxes on traders: 30% on all profits from any trade and a 1% transaction tax on most of them.Then at the end of 2023, regulators kicked multiple exchanges out of the country, following Coinbase’s exit amid the terra stablecoin fallout.Nevertheless, Chainalysis ranked India highest in grassroots adoption last year.Friction point: While India lacks major crypto firms with global reach like China, it may have the largest addressable market, despite its government’s ambivalence.The latest: The steep taxes stand, with the domestic industry now focusing on pushing changes in the 2024-25 fiscal year.Reality check: "Bringing crypto-activity within [a] regulatory perimeter and making it realistically enforceable (clear authorities, laws, and enforcement capacity) is necessary for the safe development of domestic crypto markets," Ananya Kumar, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Money team, tells Axios. Modi Put Up Tariff Walls. Now He Must Bring Them Down (Bloomberg – opinion)
Bloomberg [7/18/2024 4:00 PM, Andy Mukherjee, 27296K, Neutral]
Now that a jobs crisis is weakening his hold on power, how serious is Prime Minister Narendra Modi about reviving India’s factories? We will know in next week’s budget, a chance to remedy a disastrous lurch toward protectionism.Without fixing that folly, the country could miss an opportunity to join key global supply chains, such as those for smartphones and consumer electronics. A large home market will keep assembly lines busy — but crucial parts will be made by Chinese and Vietnamese labor. What could easily be a $100 billion-plus boost to annual factory production by the end of the decade might fail to materialize.Trouble began in 2018 with New Delhi’s “calibrated departure” from more than two decades of greater trade openness, and an increase in import duties on mobile phones to 20% from 15%. Soon it was the turn of components: In 2020, the tariff on printed circuit board assembly and display units was raised by 11 percentage points.A downward spiral in China-India relations, following border clashes the same year, didn’t help. The Modi administration made it mandatory for Chinese firms to obtain permission before investing in India. Visas for Chinese engineers started taking four to five months to process.On paper, the idea was to prevent opportunistic acquisitions of vulnerable firms during the pandemic and promote local industry. However, the measures haven’t had the intended effect. Quite the opposite, in fact.Yes, India manufactured $102 billion of electronics last year, led by mobile phones, up from $60 billion in 2018. But that’s mostly just putting together the finished goods. From the lithium-ion cell in batteries to the precision machine work needed in phone casings, and the fabrication required in display units, most of the actual value is being added in China, South Korea, Japan, or Vietnam.According to a recent report by the Confederation of Indian Industry, it would be 8% to 10% more expensive to make flexible printed circuit boards — the kind that can be folded to fit into tight spots — locally. No wonder then that even with booming smartphone exports, India is becoming a larger net importer of electronics.The Modi government’s answer to this cost disadvantage has been to offer a 4% to 6% subsidy on domestic production. But as the CII, the county’s biggest lobby group, noted in its report, the fiscal support is “grossly inadequate” to offset the gap with China and Vietnam. “Industry players are seeking a low tariff regime,” it said.There has been a lot of talk — but little progress — about becoming self-reliant in semiconductors. What policymakers should pay more attention to is less capital-intensive production. Taken together, circuit boards, cameras, displays, batteries and enclosures account for more than two-fifths of a smartphone’s production cost. Yet, very little domestic capacity has come up to make these at home because of a faulty trade policy.Most of the stuff that goes into making electronic components can be imported duty-free into China and Vietnam from free-trade partners, whereas a 10% to 15% tariff is the norm in India. To think that restricting imports will encourage domestic production is an outdated idea. All it does is keep the country out of global supply chains that require free movement of goods — and people — across a seamless international network of factories. Make it too onerous for Chinese firms to invest (or their engineers to visit), and the production base they could help move from China would remain where it is. Which is why India had an $83 billion goods trade deficit with the People’s Republic last year, up from $55 billion in 2018.The jobs crisis in the most-populous nation has assumed alarming proportions. Young graduates are nine times more likely to be unemployed than those who can’t read or write. Even outside the national capital, politicians are panicking and pandering to populist causes. Karnataka, home to the tech hub of Bengaluru, has invited a huge backlash by trying to introduce a law to reserve half or more of private-sector jobs in the state for locals.Just as India Inc. is now raising its voice to keep internal markets free, it should also have insisted on more external openness when autarky crept back into trade policy six years ago. Back then, however, captains of industry joined the chorus around Modi’s slogan of self-reliance even as the promised revival in manufacturing and factory jobs continued to elude.An unexpected loss of parliamentary majority for the ruling party has come as a wake-up call. According to media reports, Tuesday’s budget could tweak the government’s industrial policy. Its five-year, $24 billion production-linked incentive program might be supplemented with subsidies for firms that hit employment targets.Yet, no amount of additional fiscal resources will help in the presence of high tariff walls. The ongoing shift in global supply chains, triggered by the pandemic-era disruptions and a growing estrangement between Beijing and Washington, is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for New Delhi. But it won’t last forever. The time for a course correction is now. NSB
Why Deadly Protests Are Roiling Bangladesh (New York Times)
New York Times [7/19/2024 3:35 AM, Anupreeta Das and Saif Hasnat, 831K, Neutral]
Tens of thousands of Bangladeshi citizens took to the streets on Thursday, joining university students demanding an overhaul of how government jobs are distributed.
The protests have turned increasingly violent in recent days, resulting in a groundswell of anger against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after she deployed the police and paramilitary forces to tame protesters. As of Thursday, at least 17 people, mostly students, had been killed and hundreds of others injured. Large areas of Dhaka, the capital, remained empty, and the city shut down its only metro rail service.
The students have been agitating for weeks about a quota system for government jobs that benefit certain groups, including the families of those who fought for independence from Pakistan.
Anisul Huq, the law minister, said on Thursday that the government favored overhauling the quota system and would work with student leaders to find a resolution, but added that the Supreme Court would make the final decision.
The protesters, who have begun counterattacks on the police, said they would not negotiate with the government. On Thursday, they targeted the national television station headquarters, setting fire to it.
Here’s what to know about why the quota system has become such a point of contention.
What has happened so far in Bangladesh?
Students at the University of Dhaka, the country’s top institution, started the demonstrations on July 1, and they later spread to other elite universities. The protests turned violent when members of the pro-quota student wing of the governing party, the Awami League, began attacking the protesters, said Zahed Ur Rahman, a political analyst. Mr. Rahman said the group’s assault on female students further inflamed the situation.
Besides sending the police and paramilitaries into the streets, including an antiterrorism unit, the government has locked down schools and colleges. Officials said they had slowed down internet connectivity to stop the spread of rumors and protect citizens, making it harder for protesters to organize and make plans via social media platforms. The police have used rubber bullets, sound grenades and tear gas to disperse crowds. But the protests continue.
Why are the students protesting?
The protests are about coveted government jobs and who is entitled to them. An old quota system, reinstated recently by the Supreme Court, reserves more than half of those jobs for various groups. The students say that the system is unfair and that most of the positions should be filled based on merit. They consider it an urgent demand in a country where the pace of job creation, according to a World Bank report, has slowed in recent years. Bangladesh is one of the world’s least developed countries, according to a United Nations trade body.
The paucity of jobs has disproportionately affected workers ages 15 to 29, even as more graduate from college, the report found. That makes public-sector jobs — seen as stable and brimming with benefits — more desirable.
Why were quotas put in place?
The quota system was introduced in 1972 by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led his country’s fight for independence from Pakistan in 1971. Thousands of protesters and fighters were killed in that war.
The quota system ensured that the state would take care of the descendants of those considered freedom fighters. Today, a total of 56 percent of government jobs are reserved, a majority of which are for the kin of those fighters. Smaller quotas were later introduced for women, minorities and those with disabilities. Protesting students are also calling for the quotas for women and people from certain districts of Bangladesh to be removed, but they are in favor of reserving jobs for disabled people and minorities.
Wasn’t the quota system abolished once?
Yes. In 2018, two students from the University of Dhaka and a journalist petitioned a Dhaka high court, asking for the quota system to be overhauled. Student protests accompanied the appeal, although they were not as violent as this time. After months of demonstrations, Ms. Hasina, then prime minister, abolished the system. But in June, the Supreme Court reinstated the quotas after some families of freedom fighters filed a suit.“Under her rule, the judiciary is completely under her control,” said Asif Nazrul, a professor of law at the University of Dhaka who works with student protesters.
The situation has become politicized.
Pro-quota groups are supporters of Ms. Hasina, who won her fourth straight election in January. The student wing of her party also supports the quotas. After some of them attacked the protesters this month, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the main opposition to Ms. Hasina’s party, began calling for more protesters to get involved.
On Wednesday, Ms. Hasina addressed the nation and said that the government would create a judicial committee to investigate the deaths — there were six then — and that students would get justice. It remains unclear who caused their deaths. Her statements were a change from a few days ago, when she questioned whether the reserved jobs should be allocated to “razakar” — a derogatory term used to describe those who sided with the Pakistanis in 1971. Many took that comment as a veiled reference to the students demanding quota changes.“The prime minister’s comments, where she seemingly compared the protesting students to ‘razakars,’ fueled the protests,” Mr. Rahman, the political analyst, said.
On July 10, the Supreme Court paused the reinstatement of the quotas for four weeks because of the protests. Bangladesh Internet Goes Dark as Widening Job Protests Kill 25 (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [7/18/2024 10:22 PM, Niki Koswanage, 27296K, Negative]
Bangladesh is suffering a nationwide internet shutdown as students armed with sticks and hurling stones clash with police in protests against the government that reports said have left at least 25 people dead.Network data showed an internet blackout began Thursday, monitoring service Netblocks said on X. Student protesters angered by the government’s job quota policy attempted to shut down transport networks and businesses after authorities closed all universities. A state television broadcaster was set ablaze, local media reported. The Associated Press said 25 people have been killed so far. The government hasn’t commented on the outages. Students’ frustrations have centered on a government policy that includes a 30% allocation for family members of veterans from the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan, which critics say has been abused.Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has sought to reassure the students, telling them to have faith in the courts as a case against the quota system is being deliberated. But she has also vowed to come down hard on those responsible for violence, saying in a televised address on Wednesday that a judicial committee will investigate the turmoil.Protesters say the quota system has excluded new job seekers in favor of supporters of Hasina, whose party led the movement to separate from Pakistan. They want the system to be replaced with a merit-based one.Government jobs are highly sought after in Bangladesh and have taken on greater importance as the economy struggles to rebound after the pandemic and years of strong growth. The largely student-driven protests began last month but turned violent earlier this week and now the Bangladesh’s main opposition party is joining in on the demonstrations. 19 more die in Bangladesh clashes as student protesters try to impose a ‘complete shutdown’ (AP)
AP [7/18/2024 1:06 PM, Julhas Alam, 31180K, Negative]
Police and government supporters clashed Thursday with student activists trying to shut down transportation across Bangladesh as part of dayslong protests over the allocation of government jobs, and media reports said 19 people died in the violence.The new casualties Thursday would bring the overall toll to 25 dead since Monday when violence erupted at the prestigious Dhaka University in the capital. Violence pitting protesters against pro-government student groups and police soon spread to other cities. Six people had been reported killed on Tuesday, and hundreds more have been injured.Authorities did not immediately confirm figures for the deaths.The protesters are demanding an end to a quota system that reserves up to 30% of government jobs for relatives of veterans who fought in Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971.They argue the system is discriminatory and benefits supporters of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose Awami League party led the independence movement, and they want it replaced with a merit-based system.Hasina’s party has accused opposition parties of stoking the violence.The leading Dhaka-based newspaper Prothom Alo, which has a strong network of reporters across the country, said that by late Thursday night, they received reports of 19 deaths in Dhaka and elsewhere in the day’s raging violence. The country’s leading English-language Daily Star also reported 19 deaths on Thursday.Prothom Alo said at least six people died in Dhaka’s Uttara area alone in the latest clashes pitting the protesters against security officials and ruling party activists. Thirteen others including a Dhaka-based journalist of an online portal died in other parts of the capital and elsewhere.Protesters attacked the head office of state-run Bangladesh Television, breaking through a main gate and setting vehicles and the reception area on fire, a news producer and a reporter told The Associated Press by phone. They spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.“I escaped by leaping over the wall but some of my colleagues got stuck inside. The attackers entered the building and set furniture on fire,” the producer said by phone.He said the station continued broadcasting, though some Dhaka residents said they were receiving no signal from the broadcaster.Meanwhile, the country was experiencing a near-total shutdown of internet services, Alp Toker, director of the London-based internet monitor NetBlocks, said on X.The violence has continued despite a pending court decision on the legality of quota system. Hasina and Law Minister Anisul Huq urged protesters to await that decision, with Hasina saying she believes the protesters won’t be disappointed by the court verdict. Huq said on Thursday that he would be willing to sit with protesters to discuss their demands.Following the first deaths in this week’s violence on Tuesday, the government asked universities across the country to close in hopes of quelling the student unrest, and police raided the main opposition party’s headquarters.Protesters responded Wednesday evening by saying they would enforce a “complete shutdown” of transportation across the country apart from emergency services on Thursday. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party said that it would join those efforts.Clashes continued Thursday as protesters tried to enforce the shutdown. In Dhaka’s Uttara neighborhood, police chased hundreds of protesters after they blocked a road and chanted. In other locations, police fired tear gas and charged with batons to disperse protesters, who threw stones in response.Police said protesters vandalized police cars and set fire to a traffic police box. Scores of people, including police officers, were injured in the violence, the Dhaka Metropolitan Police said.Protesters also blocked some major highways across the country, and local broadcasters reported violence in other cities including Chattogram and Khulna.Traffic was thin on Dhaka’s usually clogged streets, while many malls closed. Offices and banks opened, but transportation was limited. Police set up checkpoints at the entrances to Dhaka University.Salma Rahman, an official at a financial institution in Dhaka, said that she left her car at home and caught a ride on a motorcycle. “Our office has alerted us to stay safe on the streets, as there is fear that violence could happen during the shutdown.”Hasina’s government had earlier halted the job quotas following mass student protests in 2018. But last month, Bangladesh’s High Court nullified that decision and reinstated the quotas after relatives of the 1971 veterans filed petitions, triggering the latest demonstrations.The Supreme Court then suspended the High Court’s ruling and said it would rule on the quotes by Aug. 7. The government has also appealed the High Court decision in the wake of the protests, according to the attorney general’s office.Huq said the government was seeking an early hearing.“I have already asked the attorney general to appeal in the Supreme Court on Sunday seeking early hearing,” he told reporters. Friday and Saturday form the weekend in Bangladesh. The court opens on Sunday.Hasina urged protesters in a televised address Wednesday evening to “wait with patience” for the court verdict. “I believe our students will get justice from the apex court. They will not be disappointed.”While job opportunities have expanded in Bangladesh’s private sector, many people prefer government jobs because they are stable and well-paid. Each year, around 400,000 graduates compete for 3,000 jobs in the civil service exam.Hasina said there would be a judicial investigation into Tuesday’s deaths and vowed that those responsible would be brought to justice.“Some precious lives have been lost unnecessarily,” she said. “I condemn every killing.”U.N. Human Rights chief Volker Türk posted on X that all acts of violence and deadly use of force must be investigated and the perpetrators held accountable. Türk said freedom of expression and peaceful assembly are fundamental human rights.Bangladesh’s ruling party blamed the BNP for the chaos, and Dhaka police raided the party’s headquarters late Tuesday. Detective Chief Harun-or-Rashid said police arrested seven members of the party’s student wing, and said detectives found 100 crude bombs, 500 wooden and bamboo sticks, and five to six bottles of gasoline in the raid.Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, a senior BNP leader, said the raid was a government attempt to divert attention from the protests. Communications widely disrupted in Bangladesh as student protests spike (Reuters)
Reuters [7/18/2024 11:28 PM, YP Rajesh, Sudipto Ganguly, and Shilpa Jamkhandikar, 42991K, Negative]
Telecommunications were widely disrupted in Bangladesh on Friday amid violent student protests against quotas for government jobs in which nearly two dozen people have been killed this week.French news agency AFP reported that the death toll in Thursday’s violence had risen to 32. Reuters had reported that 13 people were killed, adding to six dead earlier in the week, and could not immediately verify the higher number.Authorities had cut some mobile services on Thursday to try to quell the unrest but the disruption spread across the country on Friday morning, Reuters witnesses in Dhaka and New Delhi said.Telephone calls from overseas were mostly not getting connected and calls through the internet could not be completed.Web sites of several Bangladesh-based newspapers were not updating on Friday morning and their social media handles were also not active.Only some voice calls were working in the country and there was no mobile data or broadband on Friday morning, a Reuters photographer in Dhaka said. Even SMSes or mobile-to-mobile text messages were not going through, he added.The nationwide agitation, the biggest since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was re-elected earlier this year, has been fuelled by high youth unemployment. Nearly a fifth of the country’s 170 million population is out of work or education.Protesters are demanding the state stop setting aside 30% of government jobs for the families of people who fought in the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan.Hasina’s government had scrapped the quota system in 2018, but a high court reinstated it last month. The government appealed against the verdict and the Supreme Court suspended the high court order, pending hearing the government’s appeal on Aug. 7. Bangladesh issues high security alert as deadly protests escalate (BBC)
BBC [7/18/2024 10:53 AM, Flora Drury and Anbarasan Ethirajan, 65502K, Neutral]
A High Security Alert has been issued for the whole of Bangladesh, as violent clashes between students and police continue.The capital Dhaka is in the midst of a near-total internet blackout, with phone lines also down.On Thursday evening, several thousand protestors stormed the state broadcaster BTV, vandalising furniture, smashing windows and lights and setting parts of it on fire.Bangladesh’s information minister told the BBC that broadcasts had been stopped and most employees had left the building in the capital.A post on BTV’s official Facebook page had earlier warned "many" were trapped inside the building, and appealed for help from the fire service to put the blaze out.A senior BTV journalist, who didn’t want to be named, told the BBC: "The situation was so bad we didn’t have any other option but to leave the place. Some of our colleagues were trapped inside. I don’t know what happened to them."Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina appeared on the network on Wednesday night, appealing for calm after days of violent protests which have left at least 19 people dead, possibly many more, and hundreds injured.Students have been holding rallies demanding change to a system which reserves a third of public sector jobs for the relatives of veterans of the country’s war for independence from Pakistan in 1971.The students are arguing that the system is discriminatory, asking for recruitment based on merit.The government has been trying to quell the protests, on Thursday switching off the country’s mobile internet in an attempt to slow the students.Instead, it became the deadliest day so far, according to news agency AFP. According to its count citing hospitals, a total of 32 people have died during the protests.The BBC’s Bengali service has confirmed 19 deaths so far - 13 of them on Thursday. Among the dead was a 32-year-old journalist for the Dhaka Times.Sheikh Hasina had condemned protesters’ deaths as "murder" in her Wednesday television appearance, but her words were largely dismissed by protest organisers, who rejected government offers of talks."The government has killed so many people in a day that we cannot join any discussions in the current circumstances," said Nahid Iqbal, a leader of the anti-quota protest.Another student, Aleem Khan, 22, told the BBC: "The Prime Minister is asking for an end to the violence with one hand whilst, with the other hand, attacking students using pro-ruling party groups and the police."Thursday saw tear gas and rubber bullets deployed by officers, as students created human blockades in the streets.The students who stormed BTV had earlier "torched" a police station, according to an official at the network."They chased the police officers when they took refuge at the BTV office," the official told AFP. "Angry protesters then caused mayhem here."Elsewhere, BBC Bengali spoke to a group of medical students who were taking shelter inside a medical college compound after they were attacked by pro-ruling party groups.One of the students, Sumi, told the BBC: “I am here to protest against discrimination within the civil service and now that so many students have been killed by the police, I am also protesting against that."Our protest is peaceful, but the way in which we were attacked made me feel like we were going to be killed by pro-ruling party groups." Bangladesh Capital Bans Rallies After Government Buildings Torched (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [7/19/2024 4:14 AM, Shafiqul Alam, 1.4M, Neutral]
Police in Bangladesh’s capital banned all public rallies on Friday after the deadliest day of ongoing student protests so far saw government buildings torched by demonstrators and the imposition of a nationwide internet blackout.
This week’s unrest has killed at least 39 people, including 32 on Thursday, with the toll expected to rise after reports of clashes in nearly half of the country’s 64 districts.
Students took to the streets again on Friday morning ahead of pro-government counter-demonstrations slated to begin after midday prayers in the Muslim-majority nation.
Dhaka’s police force took the drastic step of banning all public gatherings for the day -- a first since protests began -- in an effort to forestall another day of violence.
"We’ve banned all rallies, processions and public gatherings in Dhaka today," police chief Habibur Rahman told AFP, adding the move was necessary to ensure "public safety".
Dhaka Metropolitan Police spokesman Faruk Hossain told AFP that officers had arrested Ruhul Kabir Rizvi Ahmed, the joint secretary of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
"He faces hundreds of cases," Hossain said, without giving further details on the reasons for Ahmed’s detention.
Police in the capital earlier said protesters had torched, vandalised and carried out "destructive activities" on numerous police and government offices.
Among them was the Dhaka headquarters of state broadcaster Bangladesh Television, which remains offline after hundreds of incensed students stormed the premises and set fire to a building.
"About 100 policemen were injured in the clashes yesterday," Hossain told AFP. "Around 50 police booths were burnt".
Police fire was the cause of at least two-thirds of deaths reported so far this week, based on descriptions given to AFP by hospital staff.
Busy streets around the capital were deserted at daybreak on Friday but showed signs of the previous night’s mayhem, with burnt vehicles and bricks thrown by protesters strewn across the roads.
Fresh confrontations broke out between police and protesters around Dhaka later in the morning.
Hundreds of students blockaded roads in the upscale commercial district of Banani, an AFP correspondent at the scene saw.
Witnesses also reported police firing tear gas at several locations around the crowded megacity of 20 million people.
At least 26 districts around the country reported clashes on Thursday, broadcaster Independent Television reported.
The network said more than 700 people had been wounded throughout the day including 104 police officers and 30 journalists.
London-based watchdog Netblocks said Friday that a "nation-scale" internet shutdown remained in effect.
"The disruption prevents families from contacting each other and stifles efforts to document human rights violations," it wrote on social media platform X.
Near-daily marches this month have called for an end to a quota system that reserves more than half of civil service posts for specific groups, including children of veterans from the country’s 1971 liberation war against Pakistan.
Critics say the scheme benefits children of pro-government groups that back Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, 76, who has ruled the country since 2009 and won her fourth consecutive election in January after a vote without genuine opposition.
Hasina’s government is accused by rights groups of misusing state institutions to entrench its hold on power and stamp out dissent, including by the extrajudicial killing of opposition activists.Her administration this week ordered schools and universities to close indefinitely as police stepped up efforts to bring the deteriorating law and order situation under control.
"This is an eruption of the simmering discontent of a youth population built over years due to economic and political disenfranchisement," Ali Riaz, a politics professor at Illinois State University, told AFP.
"The job quotas became the symbol of a system which is rigged and stacked against them by the regime."
Students have vowed to continue their campaign despite Hasina giving a national address on the now-offline state broadcaster seeking to calm the unrest.
"Our first demand is that the prime minister must apologise to us," protester Bidisha Rimjhim, 18, told AFP on Thursday.
"Secondly, justice must be ensured for our killed brothers," she added. As Protests Erupt, a Rocky Start to Sheikh Hasina’s Fourth Consecutive Term (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [7/18/2024 8:46 AM, Saqlain Rizve, 1156K, Negative]
Six months have passed since Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won office for the fourth consecutive time through a controversial and non-competitive election. However, in contrast to the ease with which Hasina’s Awami League won re-election, her 2024-2029 term is not going smoothly thus far.Currently, Bangladesh is witnessing a huge student-led protest over demands to abolish the quota system in government jobs. The protests started on July 1 and intensified on July 5, when the high court gave a verdict to keep the quota system in place. For over two weeks, students across all public universities have come into the streets to call for abolishing the quotas.In a major escalation of violence on July 16, at least six people, including three students, were killed and several hundred injured in clashes between anti-quota protesters and pro-Awami League activists and police across the country This huge protest’s roots trace back to April 2018, eight months before the national poll that year, when students took the streets over the quota issue. Back then, Prime Minister Hasina promised to abolish the system, saying, “There is nothing to get angry at; the students are demanding [an end to quotas], and I totally accept it.” However, her tone has dramatically changed. This time, faced with anti-quota protests, Hasina dismissed students as “wasting their time unnecessarily in the name of the movement.” Speaking in a press meeting in Dhaka on July 7 she said, “After the court’s verdict, there is no justification for the anti-quota movement.”On July 14, Hasina upped the ante when she commented, “Why do they [the protesters] have so much resentment towards the freedom fighters? If the grandchildren of the freedom fighters don’t get quota benefits, should the grandchildren of Razakars get the benefit?”
“Razakar,” referring to Bangladeshis who collaborated with Pakistan during the war of 1971, is a pejorative term in Bangladesh. This comment from the prime minister, made in a press conference after Hasina’s return from China, galvanized the whole country. Around 10 p.m. that night, thousands of students from Dhaka University’s residential halls occupied the campus area and some major streets. Female students broke the gate’s lock at Royeka Hall and joined them on the streets. By 11 p.m., the city resonated with the students’ chanted slogans that ironically repurposed the term “Razakar” to denounce Hasina’s comment: “Who am I? Who are You? Razakar, Razakar. Who said that? Who said that? Autocrat. Autocrat.” Students stayed on the streets for a few hours. In the meantime activists from the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), the Awami League’s student wing, took up position on campus and attacked protesting students, reports say.The next day, on July 15, students came into the streets across the country from different universities from around 12 p.m. BCL activists attacked the protesters in different areas, especially at Dhaka University. At least 100 students were hospitalized due to the violence on the campus. In the evening BCL activists attacked the protesters at Dhaka Medical College Hospital. At midnight Jahangirnagar University protesters also faced violence from BCL activists. Moreover, police fired tear-gas shells and rubber bullets.Protesters claimed on social media like Facebook and X that the BCL members were hiring goons from the outside and attacking protesters with lethal weapons.On July 16, the situation escalated dramatically. In addition to public university students, students from private universities such as North South University, BRAC University, University of Liberal Arts, and East West University, as well as higher secondary colleges like Notre Dame College and Dhaka Residential Model College, blockaded major points in the capital. Reports also emerged of attacks on protesters by BCL activists and police barricades.At least six people were killed in the clashes, and dozens more injured. In the aftermath, the University Grants Commission asked all universities, whether public or private, to close. A dozen large universities have agreed to shut down, including Dhaka University.Meanwhile, on July 17 the students pledged a “complete shutdown” of the country in response to what they called unprovoked attacks by security forces on protesters. In preparation, 229 platoons of the Border Guard Bangladesh, a paramilitary force, were deployed across the country. 3G and 4G networks were shut off around 11 a.m. on July 18.At the same time, police attacked students at BRAC University, shooting tear gas and sound grenades directly at the university campus. Other private university students also took to the streets. Around 1 p.m, on Thursday, police fired bullets in some areas.Besides Dhaka, students also blocked roads in other cities like Chittagong, Khulna, Barishal, and more. Even secondary and higher secondary students joined the protests, and the police fired tear gas at them.Around 2 p.m., the police surrendered to the students at Barishal University and allowed them to continue their protest.Around 3:30 p.m., the government announced they wanted to negotiate with the students. However, the students refused talks, demanding justice for the six students killed so far in the protests. The protesters are now demanding a change in the regime.Update: Since this story was first published, the death toll on July 18 has been estimated to be at least 19, brining the total number of deaths to 25.The major differences between the 2018 quota protest and 2024 edition signal the winds of change in Bangladesh.In 2024, students are directly calling Hasina a dictator and social media is flooded with the anti-Awami League comments from all classes, from celebrities to average people. Through writing, caricatures, videos, photos, and more, Bangladeshis, especially students, are directly calling the prime minister an “autocrat.” This is a development that wasn’t seen in the 2018 protest. At that time, the government acted with more restraint, perhaps with the upcoming election — only eight months away at the time of 2018 protests — in mind. This time around, the election is in the past. Another key difference is the general level of public discontent. In 2018, Bangladesh’s economy was experiencing robust growth, with a significant GDP expansion of 7.9 percent. Inflation was low, compared to current figures. Fast forward to the present year, and Bangladesh faces significant economic hurdles. The compounded impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and global economic challenges have put considerable strain on the country. Bangladesh’s foreign reserves, which stood at approximately $42 billion prior to 2019, have seen a decline, currently amounting to around $26.5 billion. The inflation rate was hovering around 9.7 percent as of June.Moreover, so far in 2024, almost every month has seen corrupt government officials exposed in the media, with evidence of their million dollar assets. The exposés started with revelations of retired Inspector General of Police Benazir Ahmed’s black money and vast assets. Hasina herself affirmed during a press briefing a few days ago that one of her aides had illicitly amassed 4 billion Bangladeshi takas ($34 million) and was subsequently dismissed from the job.Corruption is an old enemy for a developing country like Bangladesh. However, in the context of the current global economic downturn and rampant inflation, corruption stands out as a significant contributor to the economy’s precarious condition in Bangladesh. Essential commodities and foodstuffs now command prices that are a staggering one-third higher than before, burdening consumers. Bangladesh’s economic challenges are compounded by increasing debt obligations. The government has incurred substantial debt to finance major infrastructure projects, with a significant portion funded by China through the Belt and Road Initiative. These initiatives aim to stimulate economic growth; however, they have also imposed a considerable repayment burden. As of 2024, Bangladesh’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be around 36.4 percent. This financial pressure has implications for the national budget, potentially diverting resources away from measures that could mitigate the economic hardship faced by the populace.Additionally, the unemployment rate among the youth is on an upward trajectory, exacerbating the situation. This has led to an accelerated “brain drain,” as more skilled individuals look to find employment abroad. In this digital age young people consume these news stories regularly and often comment on them on social media. The continuous exposure of corruption, an economic recession, and growing unemployment all contributed to the youth outrage over a questionable system where 56 percent of jobs are reserved under various quotas. Amid these turbulent times, the Awami League government has been intensifying its crackdown on opposition parties and dissenting voices for the past decade. Numerous leaders from the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have been arrested or faced legal challenges, limiting their ability to mobilize and campaign. Continuing that trend, the Awami League blamed the BNP for the violence this week, and police raided the opposition party’s headquarters late on July 16. The Awami League’s general secretary blamed “evil forces” from the BNP for taking over the student protests.The government’s suppression also extends to journalists and activists, with reports of increased censorship and harassment, creating a climate of fear that stifles free speech and democratic engagement. This heavy-handed approach has drawn criticism from international human rights organizations and added to the growing discontent within the country.Internationally, Bangladesh faces pressure from multiple fronts. Western nations, particularly the United States, have expressed concerns over human rights abuses and the lack of democratic processes in recent elections. This has led to discussions about potential sanctions, which could further isolate the country economically and diplomatically. Relations with neighboring countries have also been strained. Tensions with India have risen over water-sharing disputes and border management issues. Hasina’s recent visit to China did not yield the anticipated financial support. The government hoped to secure a $5 billion loan to bolster the economy; instead, China consented to provide financial assistance of 1 billion yuan, which amounts to approximately $137 million. This sum falls short of the expectations set prior to the visit, where Bangladesh sought substantial economic aid.Meanwhile, the unresolved Rohingya crisis continues to be a significant diplomatic and humanitarian challenge. Since 2017, Bangladesh has sheltered over 1 million Rohingya refugees who fled persecution in Myanmar. The burden of providing for such a large refugee population has strained Bangladesh’s resources and patience, with little progress made toward repatriation or international support to resolve the crisis.Making matters worse, the conflict inside Myanmar between the junta military and rebel groups often destabilize the border areas. Hundreds of Myanmar’s border guard police and junta military troops have crossed the border into Bangladesh, seeking refuge. The combination of these domestic and international challenges means Hasina’s current term is off to a grim start. As inflation rises and economic conditions worsen, public dissatisfaction grows. The aggressive suppression of opposition and dissent has only served to unite various discontented groups against the government. The coming months will be crucial for the Awami League as they navigate these multifaceted challenges and attempt to stabilize the situation both politically and economically.Notably, student protests in Bangladesh have wielded significant influence historically, from the Language Movement of 1952 to the pro-democracy movements of later decades and the country’s independence in 1971. These protests have galvanized public opinion, pressured governments, and catalyzed reforms. If the current student-led movement against the quota system and government policies continues this tradition of activism, there may be a wind of change in the not-to distant future. Central Asia
Why China Is So Interested in Kazakhstan (New York Times)
New York Times [7/18/2024 4:14 PM, Daisuke Wakabayashi, 831K, Neutral]
Kenges Rakishev, one of the richest men in Kazakhstan, stepped off a private jet at a Soviet-era airport and hopped into the lead car of a convoy of sport utility vehicles. The cars tore down a two-lane road, zipping past the snow-covered steppe in eastern Kazakhstan at 90 miles per hour.
Riding shotgun, Mr. Rakishev gestured toward the vast emptiness.“Nothing, right?” he said with a chuckle. “But it’s a unique opportunity.”
That opportunity is in nickel, a key mineral used in electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies. Kazakhstan, a mineral-rich country in Central Asia, has a lot of nickel, and Mr. Rakishev is investing tens of millions of dollars to extract it.
Mr. Rakishev, 44, is always chasing the next big investment. In February, he was the driving force behind the public offering of a Canadian maker of plant-based instant noodles on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Before that, it was blockchain technology. And before that, it was an Israeli photo-sharing app, called Mobli, that tried to become the next Instagram.
He has connections to Kazakhstan’s ruling elite that are apparent in his energy investments and his purchase of a bank seized by the government. His close ties with a former prime minister of Kazakhstan brought him into the orbit of Hunter Biden, the American president’s son whose business dealings became the focus of an impeachment inquiry by House Republicans.But Mr. Rakishev’s next big investment is much closer to home.
The world’s transition to renewable energy, including electric cars, requires huge amounts of nickel, copper, lithium and other so-called critical minerals. Kazakhstan has many of them, and China, the biggest producer of electric vehicles and batteries, is right next door and eager to buy.“Everything is going to China,” Mr. Rakishev said.
A former Soviet Republic, Kazakhstan borders Russia to the north and China to the east and retains close trade ties to Russia. But China is a much larger customer for Kazakhstan’s critical minerals, using them to feed the insatiable needs of its factories churning out electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels. Kazakhstan said that it was also courting buyers from the West and that it did not play favorites when it came to investors in mining.“If somebody is doing geological exploration, I don’t care what flag they carry,” said Kanat Sharlapayev, Kazakhstan’s minister of industry and construction and a former Citigroup executive in Kazakhstan and the Middle East.
Mr. Sharlapayev spoke from his office in Astana, the capital city, in a massive building known as the “House of Ministries.” He had just returned from Canada, where he had attended an international mining conference.
In recent years, Kazakhstan has signed pacts with the European Union and Britain to cooperate on critical minerals. The United States held initial discussions with Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries this year. On his trip, Mr. Sharlapayev stopped in Washington to meet with officials at a U.S. foreign development agency.
Kazakhstan is a longtime oil exporter, and Mr. Sharlapayev said years of working closely with American oil companies was proof that Astana was open to Western investment.
But after a short pause, he added, “Geography cannot be ignored, of course.”
China’s Europe Link
It’s not just critical minerals that China wants from Kazakhstan. Beijing has invested billions of dollars, much of it as part of its Belt and Road foreign policy initiative, into upgrading Kazakhstan’s railways and other infrastructure to establish easier trade routes to Europe, an essential trading partner of China.
China’s economic influence is now apparent across the country. In Almaty, Kazakhstan’s wealthiest city, new car dealerships for Chinese electric vehicle brands are popping up.
On the Chinese-Kazakh border, the two countries built the Khorgos Gateway, the world’s biggest port used exclusively for handling cargo containers carried by trains. On Kazakhstan’s western border along the Caspian Sea, China invested in a container hub in the port city of Aktau.
This is now a railway alternative for sending goods from China to Europe in half the time it takes for sea cargo to travel from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
During a visit to Kazakhstan this month, Xi Jinping, China’s leader, said the two countries had agreed to double their bilateral trade “as soon as possible” by cultivating growth and cooperation in areas such as important minerals.“We are a natural, organic partner to China,” said Nurlan Zhakupov, the chief executive of Samruk-Kazyna JSC, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund. “We are very safe economically and politically.”
For all the economic ties and expressions of friendship, there is a well of anti-Chinese sentiment and mistrust among some Kazakhs — especially among those outside the political class or the business elite.
China’s detention of Uyghurs and members of other largely Muslim groups, including ethnic Kazakhs, in camps in Xinjiang has added to the misgivings. Roughly two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s population is Muslim.‘The New Oil’
In three decades as an independent country after the fall of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has built an economy that is reliant on its natural resources. Through its state-owned mining firms, Kazakhstan is a leading supplier not only of oil and uranium but also of chromium, gold and copper.
For years, global miners stayed away from investing because it seemed risky. Kazakhstan was viewed as promising, but bogged down by bureaucracy, a lack of transparency and corruption. And eventually, new mining opportunities dried up.
Kazakhstan recognized it had a problem and rewrote its mining rules in 2018, using the investment-friendly regulations of Australia, a mining juggernaut, as a model.
Still, foreign investors did not come pouring in.
First, Covid-19 struck. Then violent protests erupted in Kazakhstan, pitting loyalists of the longtime ruler, Nursultan Nazarbayev, against the government of the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The unrest was quelled with the help of Russian forces. Mr. Tokayev became the country’s undisputed leader and pledged to increase business privatization, combat corruption and limit the role of monopolies and oligopolies.
In a national address last year, Mr. Tokayev said he wanted to prioritize the development of rare and rare-earth metals, which he called the “new oil.”
One of the prospectors lured to the country was Alex Walker, a 40-year-old Australian entrepreneur who relocated to Kazakhstan after a mining project of his in Sweden had failed. Looking for a new place to explore for valuable minerals, he ruled out Canada and Australia, which were already heavily mined. Africa was too complex to operate in. But Kazakhstan had potential.“It looked like a place where you could really get things done,” he said.
Mr. Walker secured exploration licenses in partnership with Tau-ken Samruk JSC, the country’s national mining company, and moved his family to Kazakhstan in 2021. But in January 2022, days before he was preparing to list his company on the London Stock Exchange, the protests, now known as “Bloody January,” broke out. More than 200 people died, and thousands were arrested.“The timing was horrible,” Mr. Walker said. “We were trying to present this as a very safe jurisdiction.”
Despite the upheaval, no investors bailed on the stock offering. Mr. Walker said his decision to search for critical minerals in Kazakhstan had proved to be the right move. BHP Group, the world’s largest mining company, selected his company’s copper exploration project for a grant among hundreds of applicants.
Western interest in mining Kazakhstan is picking up momentum like a “snowball rolling down a hill,” said Kaisar Kozhamuratov, a partner at Aurora Minerals Group, a mining advisory company in Astana.
So far this year, the number of exploration licenses in Kazakhstan is on a pace to nearly double the average annual amount issued over the previous six years.‘A Pure Businessman’
Mr. Rakishev, the investor in nickel mining in eastern Kazakhstan, is not backed by a multinational mining giant, but he casts a long shadow in the country.
His company, the Fincraft Group, has holdings in oil and gas operations and a handful of technology start-ups. It recently sold its stake in a bank that Mr. Rakishev had bought from the state a decade earlier. Mr. Rakishev also owns a private school and a cosmetics company that he started with his wife, Aselle Tasmagambetova, an ecologist, a philanthropist and the daughter of Imangali Tasmagambetov, a former prime minister.
Mr. Rakishev seems to know every prominent Kazakh in the country. He and his wife started a charity program with Vyacheslav Kim, Kazakhstan’s richest person, doling out grants to entrepreneurs. The former middleweight boxing world champion Gennadiy Golovkin, a national hero better known as GGG, is a friend and texting buddy. Mr. Zhakupov, the chief executive of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, is a former classmate.
But these close relationships can create complications. In 2015, Mr. Rakishev accompanied Karim Massimov, Kazakhstan’s prime minister at the time, on a visit to the United States. During that trip, the two men attended a group dinner at an Italian restaurant in Washington with Joseph R. Biden Jr., then the vice president, and his son Hunter.
That dinner — and a business relationship with a company affiliated with Hunter Biden — put Mr. Rakishev on the radar of the impeachment inquiry into President Biden.
The investigation found that Mr. Rakishev had wired $142,300 to Rosemont Seneca Bohai, a company affiliated with the president’s son, in April 2014. The money was transferred to a car dealership to buy a vehicle for Hunter Biden, according to testimony by Devon Archer, Mr. Biden’s former business partner.
In closed-door testimony with a House oversight committee, Mr. Archer said Mr. Rakishev was “a prominent businessman” from a “prominent family,” according to a transcript.
In an interview, Mr. Rakishev said that he had met Mr. Archer in Kazakhstan and that they had become friends. He was planning to do business with Mr. Archer’s firm, Rosemont Seneca, in mining and real estate. He said he had bought a car for the new venture’s U.S. office. It was not supposed to be for Hunter Biden, whom he said he had met on several occasions. His understanding was that he, too, would drive the car when he visited.“I don’t have any business relationship with Hunter. I didn’t ask him for any favors,” Mr. Rakishev said. He said he had attended the dinner with the elder Mr. Biden as part of Kazakhstan’s “official delegation,” but had not spoken with him. A representative for Hunter Biden did not respond to requests for comment.
Despite his political connections and his wealth — an estimated $435 million, according to Forbes — Mr. Rakishev said it was incorrect to call him an oligarch. In his mind, an oligarch is a businessperson with the power to change the government.“I am a pure businessman,” he said.
Mr. Rakishev’s company, Kaznickel, is producing nickel and cobalt in the Abay region of eastern Kazakhstan. The project resembles a modest farming outpost, nothing like the open-pit sites used to extract nickel in countries like Indonesia. In fields blanketed with fresh snow, boreholes stick out of the ground every few feet. Kaznickel injects a chemical solution into the ground through the openings. The nickel dissolves in the solution, which is then pumped to the surface and processed in a metal storehouse next to the site.
Kazakhstan has used a similar approach for decades to mine almost half of the world’s uranium. Its use for nickel is more novel.
The Kaznickel project was started five years ago as a pilot. Mining requires a lot of patience and foresight — a lesson that, Mr. Rakishev said, other countries would be wise to heed.
The West, he said, is lagging behind when it comes to critical minerals. China started to secure supplies of lithium, cobalt and graphite decades ago.“You need to have patience like China,” he said. “They think strategically.” Political Standoff Continues In Kazakhstan Over ‘Unaffordable’ Recycling Fees (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [7/18/2024 5:20 PM, Chris Rickleton, 1530K, Neutral]
Flick through the political sections of Facebook, Instagram or Tik Tok in Kazakhstan, and chances are you will come across the latest clip of a clean-cut man venting about car-recycling fees.That man is Sanzhar Boqaev, a former official, businessman, and currently the most famous activist in a movement called No To Recycling Fees (Nyetutilsboru).But what are recycling fees, and why has a movement to scrap them gained so much traction in Kazakhstan?The answer to the first question is simple.Recycling fees exist in many countries to ensure that the cost of recycling an object at the end of its life is covered up front.In the Netherlands, the fee charged by the nonprofit Auto Recycling Netherlands for cars arriving into the Dutch market for the first time is 20 euros ($22).In Kazakhstan, it would be more than 60 times that cost for any imported car with a 1.5-liter engine and roughly 90 times that cost for imported cars with engines of between 2 and 3 liters. After that it gets even more expensive.This system has underpinned an increase in the cost of vehicles more generally, which provides part of the answer to the second question.Not that the authorities have been receptive to calls to do away with it.On July 15, officials from Kazakhstan’s Industry Ministry all but dismissed any chance of reductions to the de facto tax after a petition against the fees initiated by Boqaev surpassed 50,000 signatures and forced a public hearing on the topic.Boqaev rejected an invitation to attend the public hearing, partly in protest of it being held "inside the oligarchs’ gates" -- shorthand for the Hyundai Trans Kazakhstan assembly plant -- a direct beneficiary of the fees that help keep imports out of Kazakhstan’s local car market.But Boqaev and his group have pledged to continue their campaign against recycling fees, whatever final decision the government makes.If small but regular and geographically diverse protests against the fees this year are any indication -- not to mention massive resonance on social media -- they still have large public support.For Pure Air Or Pure Profits?Ever since the recycling fee was introduced in 2016, the Kazakh authorities have come up with various reasons to try to justify the larger tabs that now impact vehicle buyers -- sometimes environmental, sometimes economic.What they tend to skim over is that the leading beneficiary of the fees to begin with was the completely private company that collected them -- a government-anointed monopolist called Operator ROP, which was linked to Alia Nazarbaeva, youngest daughter of then-President Nursultan Nazarbaev.Nevertheless, current leader Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev -- who publicly distanced himself from Nazarbaev and his family in the wake of unprecedented unrest in January 2022 -- has acknowledged the negative public perception of the recycling-fee collection. In his first extended address to the nation less than a week after the bloodshed that left more than 230 people dead, he ordered the end of Operator ROP’s monopoly and a reduction of the fees, which are now collected by a state-owned company.But crucially, he spoke against scrapping them fully and in favor of continuing to use them to support Kazakh factories dedicated to assembling cars and agricultural vehicles. The companies that run these plants are exempt from recycling fees and enjoy other forms of state support.A compromise to suit everyone? Not really.Despite the fees being slashed by half to their current level in the months that followed, they remain "unaffordable," according to the petition published on the government’s recently created "petition website" in May."This has led to the destruction of competition and, as a consequence, to a sharp increase in prices for cars, agricultural machinery, and specialized equipment. In addition, prices for everything related to motor transport and mechanization have increased: freight transportation, mechanization and public transport services, food, consumer goods, housing costs, and much more," the petition reads.With Nazarbaeva and her company now out of the picture, the biggest beneficiaries of the expensive recycling-fee system are the car-assembly plants, which have been allowed to corner the national market on cars and set prices well above those found in most countries.This means so-called "oligarchs" like Andrei Lavrentyev, who heads the Allur industrial group, and Nurlan Smagulov, whose Astana Motors owns the Hyundai Trans Kazakhstan production facility where this week’s public hearing took place.According to the authorities, at least 20,000 people work assembling vehicles in Kazakhstan.At the same time, both the Industry Ministry and the companies themselves have faced doubts about whether these factories are doing more than cobbling cars together largely from imported components.Boqaev compounded skepticism over "localization" after Allur agreed to provide him a tour of one of its premises last month -- a decision the company is probably now regretting.Part of the footage that Boqaev shot at Allur showed a welder at the tractor assembly plant repeatedly failing to fulfill a routine task.For the million-plus viewers on Facebook and Instagram, the takeaway from the video was two-sided -- either the employee was doing a job that he had never done before, purely for show, or he was doing a job that he did regularly but poorly, potentially compromising vehicle safety.Ghost Factories And Smear CampaignsThat isn’t the first time that one of Boqaev’s videos has blown up social media.In October, the activist went to the effort of buying an old tractor and taking it to a supposed $11 million factory that the government had declared "launched" in late 2021 in the hope of seeing how it was recycled.But workers on the site said that the factory had not yet recycled anything, and that the plant -- which contrary to state media reports appeared to be nowhere near finished -- would not be doing any recycling in the near future.After failing to get his tractor recycled at yet another factory, Boqaev addressed an angry question to Toqaev: "Tell me, what are Kazakh citizens paying [recycling fees] for?"Zhasyl Damu, the state company that took over Operator ROP’s functions, admitted in a response at the time that the factories were inactive because "an act of commissioning the plant has not yet been signed" since ROP’s assets had been seized by the state nearly two years prior.The final call on whether to further reduce recycling fees rests with Industry Minister Kanat Sharlapaev, who did not attend the July 15 Almaty public hearing.But nothing done at the event -- which was closed to the general public -- suggests the government will budge.One by one, state officials and lawmakers lined up to explain reasons why the fees were necessary, while casting doubt on the veracity of the arguments made in Boqaev’s petition.Industry Ministry representative Adilbek Bekitbaev argued that "80 percent of the population in our country does not have a car. They have the right to live in a good environment and breathe clean air."The official said that since 2022, when the sky-high fees were first reduced, more and more older and polluting cars had been imported into Kazakhstan.Activists in the Nyetutilsboru group maintain that this is a manipulation of the truth.They argue that the inflated cost of new vehicles -- a product both of the recycling fees and price-setting by the local auto industry -- has forced people to drive their cars into the ground rather than change them. If citizens want to buy cars they have to buy cars they can afford, which tend to be older.Days before the public hearing, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov gave full-throated backing to the idea that Kazakhstan can become an "automobile power," and praised the auto sector for expanding the number of production processes carried out in Kazakhstan.But Kazakhstan, a country of around 20 million people, is surrounded by countries -- China, Russia, and even Uzbekistan -- that have more powerful and outward-facing automobile industries.Optimistic official statements, meanwhile, have been accompanied by an extended bashing of Boqaev on pro-government Telegram channels.The authors have some ammunition.Prior to becoming an opponent of the system around 2019, Boqaev was part of it, serving in various roles in Almaty’s city hall and, finally, as an adviser to another Nazarbaev daughter, Darigha Nazarbaeva.One position that he quit in 2015 that is particularly unpopular in opposition circles was as head of the city’s Internal Policy Department.The department’s mandate includes permissions for political demonstrations, which are invariably blocked.In an interview with RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service last year, Boqaev said he did not regret working for a "politically dependent body."He admitted that he carried out his role like a "soldier" but that he had "received experience that the vast majority of citizens haven’t received" by seeing the system from the inside. Kazakh Journalist On Trial For ‘Extremism’ Hospitalized (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [7/18/2024 10:02 AM, Staff, 1530K, Negative]
Independent Kazakh journalist Duman Mukhammedkarim, who is on trial for what he says are politically motivated charges of financing an extremist group and participating in a banned group’s activities, has been hospitalized in the southern town of Qonaev."Due to the ongoing stress and several longtime hunger strikes, Duman’s health has dramatically deteriorated. He has problems with his kidneys and stomach, a disc protrusion," Mukhammedkarim’s lawyer, Ghalym Nurpeisov, told RFE/RL on July 18.Nurpeisov added that his client was unable to be in a sitting position for longer than two or three hours at a time due to back pain.Mukhammedkarim, whose Ne Deidi? (What Do They Say?) YouTube channel is extremely popular in Kazakhstan, was sent to pretrial detention in June 2023 over an online interview he did with the fugitive banker and outspoken government critic, Mukhtar Ablyazov.Ablyazov’s Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DVK) movement was declared extremist and banned in the country in March 2018. As Mukhammedkarim’s trial started on February 12, he complained of being beaten by jail guards, prompting prosecutors to launch an investigation into the matter.Mukhammedkarim’s trial was then postponed until an unspecified date to allow for the investigation, which was shut down later due to a "lack of evidence."The trial resumed after that.If convicted, Mukhammedkarim could be sentenced to up to 12 years in prison.Domestic and international right organizations have urged the Kazakh authorities to drop all charges against Mukhammedkarim and immediately release him. Kazakh rights defenders have recognized Mukhammedkarim as a political prisoner.Rights watchdogs have criticized the authorities in the tightly controlled former Soviet republic for persecuting dissent, but Astana has shrugged off the criticism, saying there are no political prisoners in the country.Nurpesiov thanked rights groups and activists who helped persuade officials to hospitalize Mukhammedkarim, raising awareness about his health.Kazakhstan was ruled by authoritarian President Nursultan Nazarbaev from its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 until current President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev succeeded him in 2019.Over the past three decades, several opposition figures have been killed and many jailed or forced to flee the country.Toqaev, who broadened his powers after Nazarbaev and his family left the oil-rich country’s political scene following the deadly, unprecedented anti-government protests in January 2022, has promised political reforms and more freedoms for citizens.However, many in Kazakhstan describe the reforms announced by Toqaev as cosmetic, and a crackdown on dissent has continued even after the president announced his "New Kazakhstan" program. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan taking steps toward fulfilling green energy export vision (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [7/18/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Neutral]
Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan to develop electricity export capacity, even as Astana faces challenges in securing the power needed to fuel domestic economic growth.
The Kazakh Ministry of Energy has published for public comment a draft agreement on its strategic green-energy partnership with Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. The agreement would put some flesh on the bones of a memorandum of intent the three countries signed in May.“Emphasizing the importance of green and clean energy in global action to combat climate change, the Parties encourage mutual cooperation in the areas of renewable energy, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and green ammonia to improve energy system security and the stability of supply,” the draft states.
The draft goes on to commit Kazakhstan to “jointly implement new energy infrastructure initiatives that will contribute to the diversification of energy supplies and transit routes in Europe, Central Asia and the Caspian region.” It also declares an intention to achieve “rapid, deep and sustainable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.” The parties likewise express interest in facilitating “the interconnection of the energy systems of Central Asia and Azerbaijan for the purpose of sustainable export of green energy and broad strategic energy expansion.”
The trilateral initiative’s main market for green energy appears to be the European Union, which has contended with energy shortages and high costs, due to the disruption caused by the Kremlin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine and the resulting imposition of sanctions on Russia
As outlined in the memorandum of intent signed in May, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan seek to lay a high-voltage power transmission line on the Caspian seabed to facilitate Westward-bound electricity exports. Neither July’s draft agreement nor the May memo provide insight into key details, including investment costs, specific infrastructure projects and construction timelines.
Climate and geographic conditions in Kazakhstan, with its vast windswept steppes, create favorable conditions for the development of wind-power plants. According to the Ministry of Energy, the energy potential of wind energy in the country is at least 920 billion kWh per year.
Kazakhstan is actively developing its green energy potential. Today, renewable energy sources account for only about 6 percent of total power generation in Kazakhstan, while coal-fired production accounts for about 80 percent. Under an ambitious government plan, however, the green-energy share of power production is set to rise to 15 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050.
If the government keeps to those targets, some experts question where all the power production will come from to meet export ambitions and growing domestic needs. A Russian media outlet cited Kazakh energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov as saying Kazakhstan will face an electricity deficit of about 6 Gigawatts by 2030.
The wild card in Kazakhstan’s power-generation deck is atomic energy. In June, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced an intention to hold a nationwide referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, a country that served as the Kremlin’s main atomic proving ground during the Soviet era and has the environmental scars to prove it.
A nuclear plant could provide for domestic needs, leaving production from wind and hydro sources for export. Despite the legacy of atomic-inflicted harm on Kazakhstan’s environment, polls indicate that slightly more Kazakh citizens support the construction of a nuclear facility than oppose it. But attitudes could shift depending on which entity might be tapped to build a plant. Some local observers believe Rosatom, the Russian state-controlled entity, has an inside track on securing the contract, in the event the Kazakh government proceeds with plant plans. But given the checkered history of Soviet/Russian nuclear energy, a Russian design may raise the level of popular opposition to plant construction more than would a French-, South Korean- or even Chinese-built facility. No date has yet been set for the referendum. In Kyrgyzstan, an ‘unprecedented crackdown’ on free press raises alarm (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [7/18/2024 7:30 AM, Aigerim Turgunbaeva and Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska, 20871K, Neutral]
Last year, Aidai Irgebai had a serious talk with her two daughters, aged nine and seven.The girls would not return to their school in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital, when the holiday break was over, Irgebai told them. In fact, they may not return home at all.They were in Warsaw, Poland’s capital, where Kloop, a well-known investigative media outlet that Irgebai works for, had set up a new office pre-emptively, fearing the consequences of a growing crackdown against independent journalism in Kyrgyzstan.With hindsight, that seems like a prescient move.Before the summer ended, a court ruled that Kloop should be shut down, claiming that it was not properly registered as a media organisation. Kloop, still operating for now, is appealing the decision.“They can easily silence us by putting pressure on our children. I’m not very good at keeping quiet, so it became clear that I had to stay abroad to continue working as a journalist,” Irgebai, 34, told Al Jazeera in Kloop’s office in central Warsaw.Kyrgyzstan has gone through three revolutions over the past 20 years and has long been viewed as the freest post-Soviet republic in Central Asia.The last revolution in 2020 brought to power President Sadyr Japarov, who in tandem with security services chief Kamchybek Tashiev has ruled the country since, gradually strengthening their grip on power.This has become difficult, however, as the number of critical voices and professional investigative teams rose, having been developed over the years of relative freedom.Kloop and other Kyrgyz media have investigated high-level corruption, such as in 2020 when Kloop and its partners revealed that a powerful former customs official oversaw a large-scale transnational scheme, or in May this year, when damning reports implicated people close to Japarov.Japarov appears determined to challenge them.Laws tighten control of media as outlets are targetedIn 2021, a new law obliged NGOs to file complex tax reports as human rights activists were starting to be seen as agents of a Western agenda and LGBTQ propaganda. According to Eurasianet, the MP championing the law has positioned herself as for against “Western ideology” and suggested LGBTQ advocacy leads to higher divorce rates.In 2022, the parliament passed a “false information” bill which gave the government more power to remove unwanted online content. Under the law, the state can force an outlet to remove content it deems to be false information. Activists say it’s a form of censorship.A few months later, Kyrgyzstan blocked the website and bank accounts of Radio Azattyk – the Kyrgyz service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, citing counterterrorism and anti-money laundering reasons. Jamie Fly, the organisation’s chief, promised to appeal the court’s “outrageous decision”. In July 2023, a Kyrgyz court overruled the government’s decision.By 2023, Kyrgyzstan plummeted by 50 places to 122 from 72 in Reporters Without Borders’s annual press freedom ranking.In January 2024, 11 former and current reporters for the Temirov Live investigative group were arrested, having been charged with calling for mass riots. Its office was raided and documents were confiscated while its founder, Bolot Temirov, was stripped of his Kyrgyz citizenship and deported to Russia as he holds a Russian passport.In April 2024, Japarov signed the foreign agents law mirroring the Russian legislation which requires NGOs receiving funding from abroad to register as “foreign representatives” and undergo additional auditing processes.Now, a new media law is currently in the works. Once passed, civil society groups say it will give the government the power against registering “undesirable” media without citing legal grounds. The government claims that the current law does not reflect the challenges of contemporary media, especially online journalism.‘Unprecedented crackdown on free press in Kyrgyzstan’
“The recent unprecedented crackdown on free press in Kyrgyzstan is the authorities’ direct response to the investigative reporting by Kloop and Temirov Live – both members of the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project,” Gulnoza Said, of the Committee to Protect Journalists, told Al Jazeera.“They uncovered corruption by the highest-level officials, including the head of the Kyrgyz security services and family members of President Japarov. The reaction of the authorities was to suppress these voices.”Kloop no longer believes in the rule of law back home. As part of a trial last February, several psychiatrists testifying on behalf of the state said that the website’s content affected Kyrgyzstanis’ mental health by upsetting people with negative information.“Most journalists from our team who were threatened directly are already out of the country,” said Rinat Tuhvatshin, 40, head of Kloop. He left Kyrgyzstan in 2023 and is now based in Warsaw.“It’s hard to switch to remote model of work, but we had to develop new mechanisms to continue operating. If they can stop us, they can stop anyone”.But the authorities do not agree with the diagnosis of the country’s democratic backsliding.“According to the annual report of the Reporters Without Borders, the Kyrgyz Republic has improved its performance compared to 2023 and moved up two places – from 122nd to 120th place,” Chyngyz Esengul uulu, Kyrgyzstan’s deputy minister of culture, information, sports and youth policy and the chairman of a group working on the new media law, told Al Jazeera.“We can confidently say that Kyrgyzstan maintains its position in the ranking, confirming its commitment to democratic values and support for an open society. This is a source of national pride which demonstrates the country’s significant efforts to strengthening freedom of speech and media independence.”But an apparent crackdown continues. In early July, Akyn Askat Zhetigen, a local folk poet and singer, continuing the old Kyrgyz tradition of oral socio-political commentary, was sentenced to three years in prison for criticising the government on social media.“There is systematic repression of anyone who tries to speak freely. Dozens, if not hundreds, of regular people who said something online that the authorities did not approve of now languish in prisons,” Tuhvatshin, Kloop’s founder told Al Jazeera.Al Jazeera was unable to independently verify the claim, since state officials do not release data about prisoners.“In part, the government’s actions are caused by fear. They are afraid of the people of Kyrgyzstan, of their own people. Japarov – because a revolution brought him to power. Tashiev – because he can be fired any day. I think they’re also afraid of each other,” added Tuhvatshin.Meanwhile, other investigative media outlets are trying to navigate the new reality.Dilbar Alimova, the 39-year-old editor-in-chief of the PolitKlinika website, which reports on social and political issues, feels like the pressure on free media intensified with Japarov’s coming to power.PolitKlinika’s office was raided in 2020 by unknown perpetrators and sued a year later by a state media channel for allegedly reporting fake news about international loans taken by Japarov. There were also several attempts between 2018 and 2022 to block the website. In January, one of PolitKlinika’s employees, Tynystan Asypbek – also a former employee of Temirov Live, was arrested. His house was searched and his property was confiscated. He remains under house arrest.“The government has succeeded in making us divided and weak. Now every journalist and activist exercises self-censorship,” Alimova said, sitting in her Bishkek office.“But they will not break us. Kyrgyz people love independence and have proven it more than once. In one way or another, journalists will find a way to speak up.” Tajik Lawyer, Politician Hakimov Detained, Sources Say (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [7/18/2024 12:03 PM, Staff, 1530K, Neutral]
Sources close to Tajikistan’s Prosecutor-General’s Office told RFE/RL on July 18 that noted Tajik lawyer and First Deputy Chairman of the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan Shakirjon Hakimov was detained last week. According to the sources, Hakimov’s detention was linked to the arrest of former lawmaker and ex-leader of the Democratic Party Saidjafar Usmonzoda on June 14 for allegedly "plotting to overthrow the government." In the 2013 presidential election, Usmonzoda ran against Emomali Rahmon, the longtime president who has since consolidated his grip on power. There has been no official announcement about Hakimov’s detention. Brides Too Soon: The Rising Trend of Early Marriages in Uzbekistan (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [7/18/2024 10:42 AM, Niginakhon Saida, 1156K, Neutral]“I became a kelin when I was 20, still a college student, after meeting my husband-to-be only two to three times before the wedding,” said Shohida Kenjaeva, who currently lives in Germany. A kelin, an Uzbek word for a bride, holds the lowest status in the Uzbek societal hierarchy. They are expected to serve their in-laws and husbands along with taking care of all household chores and children while working and studying.
“I think this was my biggest mistake. I should have gotten married after finishing my studies. It was very difficult for me to juggle the duties of a bride, of a wife and a student. I couldn’t get enough sleep – I had to go to university, which was 70 km away, by bus in the morning at dawn and return in the evening. I would come home tired and still was expected to make dinner. The meal would be ready late and my husband would beat me mercilessly for it.”Shohida’s story is quite typical. In recent years, Uzbekistan has witnessed a troubling resurgence in early marriages, a practice that disproportionately harms young girls. In June, Kun.uz reported about a wedding in Bukhara of a 16-year-old boy and a 17-year-old girl arranged by their parents, who were later fined. There has been no update on whether the young couple was separated. It is likely that they were not, reflecting a broader societal acceptance of such practices despite its illegal status.The Family Code of Uzbekistan currently sets the age of marriage at 18. Only in rare cases (pregnancy, birth of a child, emancipation of a minor) can the age of marriage be reduced by one year with a city hakim’s permission. Officially registered marriages of girls under 18 have decreased drastically – from 8,223 in 2010 to only 68 in 2023 – mostly due to the 2019 amendments to the Family Code that increased the age of marriage for girls from 17 to 18.However, the law has not eradicated marriages under 18. Instead, parents have resorted to marrying off their daughters through informal religious ceremonies known as nikah, without legal registration.Liliya Achilova and Khurshida Saydivaliyeva’s study on early marriage and births, published by Society, Gender and Family in Central Asia, reported 1,496 births among girls under 18 in 2021, a 56 percent increase compared to 2020. Considering that there were only 92 registered early marriages in 2021 and that young girls rarely become a mother without a husband in Uzbekistan, one can make assumptions about the possible number of unregistered nikahs among teen girls.Some illegal early marriages come to public attention either through wedding videos shared on social media or news reports about police arrests. These arrests often target parents or imams who conduct unregistered nikah ceremonies, serving as a warning to others.For example, news about a man from Syrdarya who was fined for arranging a nikah between his son and a girl under 17 made rounds on local media earlier this year. Such unregistered marriages leave young girls without legal protections.“Since they are minors, their marriages are not considered legal,” explained Kamola Alieva, a lawyer, expert on gender issues, and an associate professor at Tashkent State University of Law. “Protecting the legal rights of a girl as a wife is challenging until she reaches adulthood and formalizes the marriage. In cases of divorce via shariah law (where a husband can divorce a wife by saying a specific word three times), property and other relations between them are not regulated by formal legal frameworks. A bride can only seek child support if the husband was formally registered as the father. If she was registered in the shared household after the nikah, she may attempt to claim a portion of it, but this process is complex and difficult.”Apart from the legal age cap, 11 years of mandatory education (rather than the previous nine years of school followed by a two to three years of college or lyceum) serves as a primary measure preventing young girls from being married off before 18 or becoming a teenage mother. The Ministry of Public Education branded schooling as a means of exerting “social control.”Parents are also held accountable if their children are kept from studying, resulting in some girls getting engaged before 18 but not actually marrying until after they graduate and reach the legal age.Over the last decade, the proportion of girls marrying at just 18-19 has steadily increased. In 2015, only 21 percent of brides were in this age group; by last year, the figure had risen to 36 percent with over 102,000 brides nationwide aged 18-19.Early marriage has always been a part of Uzbek patriarchal culture. Girls are seen as a burden to families since they do not bring in material support for their parents or look after them in their late years. Many families see it as more reasonable to invest in their sons and “get rid” of their daughters. Since the country’s independence, traditional values along with Islamic ones encouraging marrying young have re-emerged and the process has accelerated with the new government’s more tolerant approach to religious practices.The increasing popularity of social media platforms has heightened parents’ urgency to marry off their daughters sooner. Traditionally, girls are expected to marry as a virgin and preferably with no history of dating. Parents are getting increasingly anxious about their daughters’ future prospects of finding a good match in an age of sharing personal information on social media and sexting, exposure viewed as threatening the family’s honor.
“Social pressure also plays a significant role,” confirmed Alieva. “In some remote areas, we observe how parents rush to marry off their daughters simply because girls appear old enough. If a good candidate from a reputable family shows interest, parents often give away their minor daughters to secure the match.”Arranged marriages remain popular in Uzbekistan, and forced marriages still occur. A 2021 study by the Mahalla and Family Research Institute surveyed 250 teenage girls who married or gave birth early. Among the respondents, 70 percent indicated that their parents were responsible for their marriages, while only a quarter married for love. Early marriages have not only negatively affected the brides’ health (38.2 percent), but their relationship with their parents too (22.9 percent). The majority of young brides also reported that they did not continue their studies after marriage – 17 percent by their own choice, while almost 40 percent cited objections from their in-laws and husbands.“I myself married when I was 20 and faced many hardships at such an early age,” said Sayyora, a 42-year-old mother from Tashkent who asked not to use her real name, fearing for her reputation and that of her daughter. “The groom we chose for my daughter was from a good family and my daughter herself liked him. So, we married her off when she was just 20. She married into a rich family and now has to take care of two big houses. Her academic performance has dropped. She has to do all bridal duties in the morning despite her pregnancy and only then does she rush to college.“I very much regret marrying her off so early. The worst part is, I don’t see happiness in her eyes anymore.”Early marriages, especially arranged and forced ones, confine many girls to their homes, where they serve their in-laws and are vulnerable to various forms of abuse. In 2022, the Family and Women Research Institute surveyed female victims of gender-based violence in five regions of Uzbekistan. The findings revealed that 39.9 percent of respondents married through sovchilik, a traditional matchmaking practice initiated by parents and other older relatives, 33.9 percent married based on mutual interest, while 21 percent married due to their parents’ will.“My parents, especially my mother, feel very guilty,” reflected Shohida, discussing her divorce. It was initiated by her mother-in-law just a month after her wedding. “‘We made you miserable,’ they often say. But I don’t think it is my parents’ fault. They just wanted me to be happy. Yet, I still feel the pain of those beatings. My whole body hurts. I am afraid to ever get married again.”A deeper reason for the pursuit of young brides lies in the growing scarcity of eligible girls. Uzbekistan, with a population of just over 37 million, exhibits an overall balanced male-to-female ratio. But this balance is disrupted among eligible youth; there are slightly fewer girls in Uzbekistan than boys. This gap has been widening, with only 954 girls aged 20-29 per 1,000 men in the same age category as of 2024.In the 15-29 age group, there are 200,000 fewer girls than boys – a staggering 100 percent increase compared to 2011. Moreover, men from older age groups also seek to marry girls under 30, intensifying the competition for young brides.Polygamy is also on the rise. While the exact number of polygamous marriages remains unknown, some report it to be in the hundreds of thousands. Although many women agree to become a second wife due to social pressure and financial troubles, the majority of them are young, under 35.The scarcity is further exacerbated as many Uzbek girls choose to marry foreigners, particularly Turkish nationals. In 2019 alone, 1,559 women from Uzbekistan married citizens of Turkey. This shortage drives parents to find a bride quickly, regardless of her young age, fearing they might not be able to secure a suitable match for their sons later on.“Administrative punishment for marrying off an underaged young is very light – a fine of a couple of hundred dollars,” explained Alieva. “Further criminalization of early marriages is not a solution. There should be a complex set of measures on the ground, including various awareness raising programs about the consequences of early marriage in mass media, forming legal awareness and legal culture, and resolving economic problems in society.”
“Girls should get education first,” said Shohida. “Let them get married only when they finish their studies and can provide for themselves. Only then will they not depend on someone or tolerate the mother-in-law’s complaints or the husband’s violence.” The demographic changes and re-emergence of traditional values in Uzbekistan, however, point to a further surge of early marriages, if not illegal ones, for the coming years. How The Ukraine War Could Revamp Trade In Eurasia (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [7/19/2024 4:00 AM, Reid Standish, Wojtek Grojec, and Ivan Gutterman, 235K, Neutral]
As attacks on vessels in the Red Sea have shown, conflict can disrupt global trade. Countries and shipping companies need reliable alternatives to keep the world economy humming.
This lesson was learned in the heart of Eurasia in February 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threw global supply chains into upheaval and opened up new geopolitical battlegrounds.
Enter the Middle Corridor, aka the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.
The thousands of kilometers of roads, railroads, and ports that connect China to Europe had long been championed, but it was the prospect of a long war in Ukraine that shifted the calculus in Beijing and European capitals.
Before the war, the majority of overland trade between China and the European Union traveled along Russia’s vast rail network to connect two of the world’s largest markets. This better-developed northern route gave cargo companies a predictable, affordable trade network.
As a result, Russian trains became the main mode of transport for China-EU overland trade.
But Russia’s invasion changed that, as cargo companies had to navigate sanctions and find new trade routes linking Europe and China that bypassed Russia.“Transit between Europe and Asia is becoming more complicated and more expensive by the day,” Romana Vlahutin, a German Marshall Fund fellow and former EU ambassador-at-large for connectivity, told RFE/RL.
Thus the Ukraine war breathed new life into the Middle Corridor after it had been avoided for years due to rising costs, border issues, and a lack of quality infrastructure.“The Middle Corridor would be the shortest multimodal corridor, and there is a genuine interest from the Central Asian states to have more robust and much closer links with the EU,” said Vlahutin.Enticed by the mega-route’s potential, cargo traveling along the Middle Corridor skyrocketed from 350,000 tons in 2020 to 3.2 million tons in 2022. According to a World Bank study released in late 2023, trade volume on the Middle Corridor could triple by 2030, reaching 11 million tons.
But the Middle Corridor’s limitations -- ranging from a lack of infrastructure to soaring wait times in ports and at border crossings -- still need to be overcome.“Much will depend on how China perceives the Middle Corridor,” Emil Avdaliani, international relations professor at the European University in Tbilisi, told RFE/RL. “Without Chinese cargo, there will be little incentive to expand the route.”
The EU has also moved to further develop infrastructure in Central Asia and the Caucasus; other countries have sensed opportunity, with billions of euros in new investments. Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Kazakhstan agreed to set up a body that would accelerate development, and they are working to improve coordination and lower trade barriers.
URUMQI, the capital of Xinjiang, China’s western autonomous region, has slowly grown into a key hub for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since the massive infrastructure project was launched in 2013.
With strong internal connections to domestic Chinese centers like XI’AN, some 2,500 kilometers east of Urumqi, the city has become a launching pad for the rail networks in Kazakhstan that form the early strands of the Middle Corridor.
Moving West To Kazakhstan
Cargo from China to Kazakhstan goes through two main crossings. The first is DOSTYK, which was the main port of entry for goods traveling north to Russia but also connects to railways moving west; and the second is KHORGOS, which was built as one of China’s key BRI investments in Central Asia.
Khorgos, Kazakhstan
Roughly 2,500 kilometers from the nearest coastline, KHORGOS was launched in 2015 and dubbed a “dry port" as a terminal designed to process overland cargo.
Upon arrival, goods heading west are transferred by cranes from Chinese trains to Kazakh ones that have the same track gauge as Russia and most other former Soviet countries. The next such transfer isn’t required on the journey to Europe until entering the EU.
Aqtau, Kazakhstan
After entering through Khorgos, goods turn south towards Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, and then west by rail to the Caspian port city of AQTAU.
Crossing the Caspian
AQTAU, a city of roughly 180,000 people, sits on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea and is the Middle Corridor’s principal maritime port on the Central Asian side, where it transports cargo to Azerbaijan.
The Kazakh government is investing tens of millions of dollars into the port and announced plans to expand it in late 2022. The U.A.E. and Kazakhstan also agreed in September 2022 to inject $900 million into projects that support the Middle Corridor.
The journey across the Caspian Sea is where the Middle Corridor’s first obstacles appear.
The sea is known for its rough waters during the summer that can delay ferries for weeks, which only worsens the already bad congestion in Azerbaijan due to a lack of infrastructure and logistics centers to unload and transfer cargo.
As the World Bank said in a 2023 Middle Corridor study, the longest delays along the route occur at sea crossings due to “a shortage of vessels, followed by errors in shipping documentation.” The report added that high costs, unpredictability, and a lack of cargo tracking systems are all major problems for the Caspian crossing.
Forecasts show that if the Middle Corridor is to reach its upper projections and take advantage of its shorter route between Europe and Asia, then solving these logistical issues is a necessity.
The biggest gains could be for regional trade between Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, which could increase by 37 percent by 2030, and by 28 percent between those countries and the EU alone, according to World Bank projections.
While a lack of ports presents a bottleneck for the Middle Corridor, container capacity is also limited due to the size of the ports on the Caspian. This is especially true for BAKU, whose port has more limited capacity than Aqtau.
Azerbaijani authorities announced expansion plans and were investing in new infrastructure for the port outside of Baku before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Once completed, this could also align with other infrastructure projects in Central Asia, such as a prospective China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line and expanded capacity in Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan’s main Caspian port.
As the World Bank and other organizations have noted, one of the largest inefficiencies along the corridor exists at BAKU’S port, where the dwell time for goods is high.
One study said the average wait time for containers in Baku’s port yards was 25 days, with a range of 10-46 days for shipments. This period was calculated to account on average for 70 percent of the total shipping time for a one-way journey across the entire Middle Corridor.
Armenia is not officially part of the Middle Corridor’s route, but there are talks to possibly include it. The route currently travels through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the Black Sea, but a proposed 43-kilometer rail route through Armenia’s Syunik Province to the Azerbaijani exclave of Naxcivan and then to Turkey would connect the Caspian and Mediterranean seas. Realizing the proposed "Zangezur Corridor" would first require a normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who are bitter rivals.
Once processed in Azerbaijan, containers go west by rail and road to Georgia, traversing the capital, TBILISI.
The Georgian government has been building and modernizing its transit infrastructure to more easily bring goods across its mountainous terrain to its Black Sea ports at Poti and Batumi or southwest to continue the journey by land to Turkey.
Several new multilane highways have been built across the country, with the most high-profile being a 51.6-kilometer section that cuts through the rugged terrain of the Rikoti Pass. The project was awarded to Chinese construction companies and is estimated to cost close to $1 billion.
The highway -- which consists of 96 bridges and 53 tunnels -- is currently behind schedule but will cut transit time from Tbilisi to the Black Sea in half once completed.
Overland To Turkey
KARS, located in northwest Turkey near its borders with Armenia and Georgia, is the main point of entry by land into the country via the Middle Corridor.
Shipments can enter by road and rail, but the World Bank says reconstruction of the lines connecting from Georgia are needed if it is to accept larger quantities of goods.
Well before its route was settled, Turkey had pushed its own vision for the Middle Corridor as a way to build stronger economic ties to Central Asia and improve its strategic position among its neighbors.
Between 2013 and 2015, Ankara signed agreements with Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, and Kazakhstan to boost the Middle Corridor and completed new projects to improve connectivity, including the Eurasia Tunnel and Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge in ISTANBUL in 2016. Turkey is also in the process of finishing a new high-speed railway connection to Kars and a northern highway to more easily bring goods to Istanbul.
Despite this level of interest, Turkey’s overall position within the Middle Corridor is uncertain, with the World Bank’s 2023 comprehensive study saying the country’s position and alternative routes will be studied in more detail in a future report.
Back To Georgia
Georgia’s ports of POTI and BATUMI account for 76 percent and 24 percent of all Georgian container flows, respectively, and the country’s location on the eastern edge of the Black Sea has made it particularly crucial for the Middle Corridor to take off.
But Georgia’s potential has thus far been limited by long lines of trucks at its borders and ports at Batumi and Poti operating near capacity.
Currently, the country has no deep-sea port, which would allow larger ships to transport increased volumes at a more efficient rate, something that organizations like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank say is necessary to make the Middle Corridor globally competitive.
This has revived plans in Georgia to build a deep-sea port in ANAKLIA, a town farther north on the country’s coastline. In May, the Georgian government announced it had awarded a 49 percent ownership stake to a Chinese consortium, as well as contracts to build and operate a new port there.
A previous attempt to build the port in Anaklia by a consortium led by Georgia’s TBC Bank and U.S.-based Conti International broke ground and moved residents from the future site of the port in 2018. That bid was eventually canceled by the government in 2020 after years of political jostling, and the area has sat empty ever since.
POTI is also looking to expand and increase its capacity for larger ships, although its narrow entrance could still limit the number of ships it can handle compared to Anaklia.
Most projections, however, show that Georgia is unlikely to need both an expanded Poti port and a new deep-sea one in Anaklia. This leaves room for Georgia’s port politics to still play out in unpredictable ways.
Crossing the Black Sea
From Georgia, goods can transit across the Black Sea or cut south towards Turkey but, due to major infrastructure gaps along the land route, the maritime route, which serves three destinations -- Istanbul, Constanta, and Chornomorsk -- is preferred by operators.
Similar to the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea presents new obstacles in terms of high tariffs, slow processing, and inefficient customs procedures. Added to this is the instability and uncertainty brought by the war in Ukraine that have seen attacks and tensions across Ukrainian and Russian portions of the Black Sea.
The Black Sea port at CONSTANTA is where the Middle Corridor enters the EU after traveling roughly 5,000 kilometers.
Because of its port on the Black Sea, Romania has been one of the most engaged EU members on developing the Middle Corridor, with Romanian officials stepping up their engagement with Georgia and looking to integrate the route into the platform of official bodies governing the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s CHORNOMORSK port has rail and sailing connections to Varna in Bulgaria, Batumi and Poti in Georgia, and Samsun in Turkey, making it a strategic location along the Middle Corridor.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has cast a shadow over how integral it will be as the route progresses.
Chornomorsk’s location and Ukraine’s comparatively developed rail network make it an attractive option, but with fighting under way in Ukraine, the port’s place in the Middle Corridor will ultimately be determined by how the war ends.
Poland was the main destination for the northern route that traveled through Russia and Belarus to the EU, where goods would then make their way across Europe.
That infrastructure is now being put to use as the Middle Corridor gathers steam. WARSAW has strong road and rail connections to Romania and Ukraine and is a gateway to other markets within the bloc, such as neighboring Germany and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
From here, goods also pass on their journey back east to the Caucasus, Central Asia, and China, where they once again encounter the same obstacles that governments across the trade route are trying to solve.
New Momentum And Old Problems
There’s no denying that the Middle Corridor has attracted a new level of energy and interest from major companies and countries that wasn’t present before but, despite this momentum, it’s still struggling with inefficiencies that keep costs high and trade unpredictable.
Economists are undecided on the route’s future, but its role as a land bridge between China and Europe that bypasses Russia will continue to draw interest as countries and companies look for alternative trade routes amid a volatile geopolitical climate.
Projections show that the route could one day reduce transit time between China and Europe to 12 days, compared to 19 days along the northern route through Russia and 22-37 days for maritime trade that runs to and from China via the Indian Ocean.
Whether the governments along the Middle Corridor can realize this vast potential will be decided in the coming years. Twitter
Afghanistan
Habib Khan@HabibKhanT
[7/18/2024 11:49 AM, 228.5K followers, 6 retweets, 35 likes]
Women under the Taliban are banned from participating in sports, but these three women in exile will proudly represent Afghanistan under the tricolor national flag in the Olympics. Best of luck to them—make us proud! Pakistan
Michael Kugelman@MichaelKugelman
[7/18/2024 8:19 AM, 211.1K followers, 35 retweets, 92 likes]
With Pakistan experiencing multiple crises, the potential costs of a dangerous confrontation between two critical institutions--the military and the judiciary-- could go well beyond politics. This week’s South Asia Brief for @ForeignPolicy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/17/pakistan-is-trying-to-ban-imran-khans-party-will-that-spark-a-political-crisis/
Anas Mallick@AnasMallick
[7/19/2024 3:06 AM, 73.2K followers, 4 likes]
Commentary from abroad is unwarranted and is unacceptable interference in our internal matters, @ForeignOfficePk in response on US comment on govts move to initiate ban on PTI.
Anas Mallick@AnasMallick
[7/19/2024 2:59 AM, 73.2K followers, 4 likes]
Can confirm that over 25,000 Afghan currently in Pakistan await settlement in the United States, says @ForeignOfficePk in response to a question. #Afghanistan #Pakistan #USA
Anas Mallick@AnasMallick
[7/19/2024 2:39 AM, 73.2K followers, 1 retweet, 7 likes]
Foreign Minister of Turkemanistan to visit Pakistan on the invite of Pak FM @MIshaqDar50 from 22nd till 24th July, announces spox @ForeignOfficePk in her weekly briefing. India
Rahul Gandhi@RahulGandhi
[7/18/2024 4:59 AM, 26.4M followers, 4.1K retweets, 16K likes]
The excessive rain in Kerala is highly concerning - my heart goes out to all those affected. Heartfelt condolences to those who have lost their loved ones. I urge Congress leaders & workers in the state to extend all possible help in relief and rescue operations.
Amit Malviya@amitmalviya
[7/18/2024 11:53 AM, 807.8K followers, 641 retweets, 3.4K likes]
Today, Prime Minister Modi came to the BJP HQ to meet our staff, many of who have been working for the party for decades. They have seen the party rise from 2 seats to 303, when we just had one Ambassador car to now a fleet… It was an emotional moment for them to be recognised.
Derek J. Grossman@DerekJGrossman
[7/18/2024 3:18 PM, 90.7K followers, 28 retweets, 120 likes]
India-China ties improving? "...there has been a quiet yet notable shift in recent months towards a new phase of relations defined by border stability and closer commercial ties." https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/07/18/the-epic-bust-up-between-china-and-india-could-be-ending
Richard Rossow@RichardRossow[7/18/2024 10:10 AM, 29.6K followers, 11 likes]
For his first trip abroad as foreign secretary, Vikram Misri will visit Bhutan for a 2-day visit starting tomorrow.
Richard Rossow@RichardRossow
[7/18/2024 9:52 AM, 29.6K followers, 9 retweets, 16 likes]
India draws in $5.9b in FDI (new equity) in May ‘24. First time in 2 years India’s had 2 consecutive months of $5b+ inflow. The annualized total FDI is up 16% Year-on-year. NSB
Awami League@albd1971
[7/18/2024 7:54 AM, 639K followers, 29 retweets, 78 likes]
In guise of protesters of #QuotaReformationMovement have vandalized the office of #AwamiLeague in Tangail district. Armed with sharp weapons, sticks and rods, a group of @bdbnp78 activists guising as #quotareform protesters attacked the office, vandalized and set fire to the office equipments. The world should not mistake this violence as act of general students rather this calculated attack to destabilize law and order evokes grim memories of similar carnage unleashed by the same combine to thwart polls last year. #Bangladesh #Violence #BNP #Jamaat
Michael Kugelman@MichaelKugelman
[7/18/2024 11:45 PM, 211.1K followers, 16 retweets, 67 likes]
Bangladesh is experiencing its worst civil unrest since 2013, which saw both the Shahbag and Hefazat movements. But the current protests may be more serious for the gov’t than either of those, because nothing it’s tried-appeasement, the use of force, offers of talks-has worked.
Michael Kugelman@MichaelKugelman
[7/18/2024 11:19 PM, 211.1K followers, 15 retweets, 51 likes]
The Bangladesh protests may be against job quotas, but they’ve also turned into demonstrations against the repression of the state-including the heavy-handed tactics used against protestors this week. That’s significant, given the impunity enjoyed by those that use such tactics.
Michael Kugelman@MichaelKugelman
[7/18/2024 3:07 PM, 211.1K followers, 62 retweets, 239 likes]
Two thirds of Bangladesh’s population is of working age, but jobs are hard to come by. Reinstating job quotas in the civil service reserved for relatives of ‘71 independence fighters closes off a significant source of unemployment for many people that badly need jobs.
Michael Kugelman@MichaelKugelman
[7/18/2024 2:05 PM, 211.1K followers, 112 retweets, 410 likes]
Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina has a full-blown political crisis on her hands. The protests over job quotas are led by the young people that dominate Bangladesh demographically, and they’re fueled by both growing economic stress and deep and longstanding political fault lines.
Michael Kugelman@MichaelKugelman
[7/18/2024 8:24 AM, 211.1K followers, 15 retweets, 58 likes]
I’m quoted here on Bangladesh’s ongoing student protests against job quotas--and how they tie into unemployment, the demographic dividend, and Bangladesh’s need to broaden its economy and diversify its exports. https://aljazeera.com/economy/2024/7/18/who-are-the-protesters-demanding-an-end-to-job-quotas-in-bangladesh#:~:text=Since%20July%201%2C%20university%20students,the%20country’s%201971%20liberation%20movement
Tshering Tobgay@tsheringtobgay
[7/18/2024 12:14 PM, 99.4K followers, 17 likes]
Hosted a dinner for the Local Government Leaders who have been engaged in a workshop in Thimphu since 15th July. Hope this evening provided everyone an opportunity to refresh and rejuvenate themselves amidst all their hardwork.
Tshering Tobgay@tsheringtobgay
[7/18/2024 4:38 AM, 99.4K followers, 1 retweet, 12 likes]
Pleased and excited that our 13th Five Year Plan has been officially launched today. Also had a productive interaction with the media following the launch program, answering their questions and sharing insights.
Tshering Tobgay@tsheringtobgay
[7/18/2024 4:38 AM, 99.4K followers, 3 likes]
Our nation stands at a crossroads, and the 13th FYP is going to be pivotal in shaping our future. Our primary focus is on economic development in tandem with social progress, encompassing vital sectors such as the private sector, tourism, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Tshering Tobgay@tsheringtobgay
[7/18/2024 4:38 AM, 99.4K followers, 3 likes]
A very special note of gratitude goes to all donor countries and organizations, in particular the Government of India for their continued support to Bhutan since our first FYP.
Tshering Tobgay@tsheringtobgay
[7/18/2024 4:38 AM, 99.4K followers, 2 likes]
The 13th FYP is the culmination of the collective efforts of everyone. Moving forward, I will ensure continuous reviews with all stakeholders to guarantee that the Plan is being implemented effectively and yielding tangible outcomes.
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv[7/18/2024 12:40 PM, 109K followers, 126 retweets, 128 likes]
President Dr @MMuizzu and First Lady Madam Sajidha Mohamed attend the Awarding Ceremony of President’s Scholarship & High Achievers’ Scholarship.
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv
[7/18/2024 1:28 PM, 109K followers, 49 retweets, 47 likes]
President @MMuizzu present the President’s Scholarships to deserving students who achieved academic excellence in their higher secondary examinations.
The President’s Office, Maldives@presidencymv
[7/18/2024 1:28 PM, 109K followers, 58 retweets, 57 likes]
Remarks by President Dr @MMuizzu at the President’s Scholarship and High Achievers’ Scholarship awarding ceremony
Moosa Zameer@MoosaZameer
[7/18/2024 4:37 AM, 13.6K followers, 16 retweets, 23 likes]
At the #UNSC Open Debate on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, #Maldives welcomed the establishment of a framework to provide reliable humanitarian assistance and urged the @UN Security Council to exercise its mandate to ensure effective implementation of the resolutions adopted to protect innocent civilians in Gaza.
MOFA of Nepal@MofaNepal
[7/19/2024 2:15 AM, 258.6K followers, 6 retweets, 17 likes]
H.E. Mr. Dean R. Thompson, Amb. of the United States of America to Nepal, paid a courtesy call on the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Hon. Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba at the latter’s office today. Various aspects of Nepal-US relations including development cooperation were discussed.
K P Sharma Oli@kpsharmaoli
[7/18/2024 1:35 PM, 856.1K followers, 18 retweets, 136 likes]
I am deeply shocked to learn about the passing away of Ambica Shrestha, a well known figure in tourism and hospitality industry. Her demise is a great loss to the nation. Heartfelt tributes to Late Shrestha, and condolences and sympathies to the bereaved family members. Central Asia
UNODC Central Asia@UNODC_ROCA
[7/18/2024 10:36 AM, 2.4K followers, 3 retweets, 4 likes]
On this #MandelaDay, Dmitry Shlapachenko, the UN Resident Coordinator to Turkmenistan, underscores the importance of rehabilitating prisoners and enhancing their social integration to reduce the likelihood of reoffending. #PrisonersMatter https://x.com/i/status/1813946026493092142
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[7/18/2024 10:45 AM, 196.2K followers, 6 retweets, 33 likes]
The presidents of #Uzbekistan and #Kyrgyz Republic held a private meeting at the #Kuksaroy residence. They discussed key aspects of bilateral cooperation and strategic regional projects, with special attention given to developing the economic agenda and promoting cultural exchange
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[7/18/2024 9:25 AM, 196.2K followers, 7 retweets, 29 likes]
A welcoming ceremony for President Sadyr #Japarov took place at the #Kuksaroy residence in #Uzbekistan. President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev warmly greeted the distinguished guest and invited him to the stage. The military band played the national anthems of both countries, after which the leaders reviewed the honor guard and greeted the members of the official delegations.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service@president_uz
[7/18/2024 8:44 AM, 196.2K followers, 11 retweet, 62 likes]
At the invitation of Shavkat #Mirziyoyev, President of #Uzbekistan, Sadyr #Japarov, President of #Kyrgyzstan, and his wife arrived for a state visit. They were greeted at #Tashkent International Airport by our head of state and the First Lady. In honor of the distinguished guests, the national flags of both countries were raised, and a guard of honor was formed.
Saida Mirziyoyeva@SMirziyoyeva
[7/18/2024 10:33 AM, 18.6K followers, 2 retweets, 39 likes]
Today we met with the Israeli ambassador to Uzbekistan, Zehavit Ben-Hillel, who is completing her mission in our country. I highly appreciate her enormous contribution to developing relations between our states & active cooperation. I wish her success in her future activities
Furqat Sidiqov@FurqatSidiq
[7/18/2024 12:53 PM, 1.4K followers, 7 likes]
Proud to share that by the Decree of @president_uz the American Technology University has been established in Tashkent! Thanks to our collaboration w/ Cintana Education & @ASU, youths from & not only will have an opportunity to get top-tier education in engineering, IT, & more.
Furqat Sidiqov@FurqatSidiq
[7/18/2024 10:47 AM, 1.4K followers, 3 retweets, 7 likes]
Big thanks to @SteveDaines for announcing the formation of the Senate Central Asia Caucus during Uzbekistan Day on Capitol Hill. We highly appreciate @SenGaryPeters for joining Senator Daines in launching the Caucus. Watch @SteveDaines’ remarks here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z75rQ9ZJMNU{End of Report} To subscribe to the SCA Morning Press Clips, please email SCA-PressOfficers@state.gov. Please do not reply directly to this email.