epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Thursday, January 4, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Taliban Maintain Poppy Crackdown, US Fears Farmers’ Return to Cultivation (VOA)
VOA [1/3/2024 3:12 PM, Akmal Dawi, 761K, Negative]
Afghanistan’s Taliban government is touting major strides in combating drug production and trafficking over the past year.

Acting defense minister Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid announced at a Kabul press conference on Sunday that 4,472 tons of narcotics had been destroyed, 8,282 individuals involved in production and smuggling were arrested, and 13,904 hectares of poppy crops were cleared.

“Smuggling of all contraband has been prevented by 99 percent,” Mujahid claimed.

The United States and the United Nations have confirmed a massive reduction in poppy cultivation in Afghanistan since the Taliban supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, banned the crop in April 2022.

Afghanistan’s poppy cultivation plummeted so dramatically after the Taliban ban that the country no longer holds the title of top global opiate supplier, ceding it to Myanmar, according to a 2023 report by the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, or UNODC.

For nearly two decades, despite billions of dollars poured into counter-narcotics by Western donors, Afghanistan remained the world’s opium kingpin, supplying more than 80% of the world’s illicit market.

Opium is used to produce heroin, a highly addictive and dangerous drug.

Unsustainable initiative

Eradicating opium cultivation remains a monumental challenge for the Taliban, despite their declared commitment to a permanent, rigorously enforced ban and a drug-free Afghanistan.

Experts say extreme poverty in rural and agricultural communities haunts the Taliban’s vow, threatening to lure farmers back to poppy cultivation.

“Despite the apparent initial impact of the Taliban’s narcotics ban, farmers will likely again turn to poppy cultivation unless there is a plan to address the potential loss of over 400,000 livelihoods linked to opium cultivation,” an official at the U.S. Department of State wrote VOA in emailed comments.

The Taliban’s poppy cultivation ban has dealt a harsh blow to Afghanistan’s illicit narcotics economy, causing an estimated $1 billion loss for those involved, as reported by the U.N. and independent experts.

“In 2023, the farmers’ income from selling opium to traders declined by 92% from an estimated $1.36 billion in 2022 to $110 million in 2023,” the UNODC reported in November.

As the Taliban pursue their counter-narcotics goals, finding sustainable alternative livelihoods for affected communities will be crucial to prevent unbearable hardships and even potential conflicts.

“The economic consequences of the ban so far may have been somewhat muted by large existing inventories of opium from previous harvests, but smaller farmers, sharecroppers, and wage laborers suffer the most since they don’t have stocks of opium,” William Byrd, an expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told VOA.

The opium economy in Afghanistan has been a complex and controversial issue, annually pumping between $1.8 billion and $2.7 billion into the Afghan economy, accounting for 6% to 11% of GDP according to the U.N.

US aid

U.S. officials have long argued that the global narcotics trade serves as a shadowy financier, fueling terrorism, organized crime, and corruption across the globe.

From 2003 to 2021, while engaged in counter-insurgency operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan, the United States also invested upwards of $9 billion in programs aimed at curbing the illicit drug trade.

Following the Taliban takeover, the U.S. cut development aid to Afghanistan, focusing solely on U.N.-administered humanitarian assistance. Alternative livelihood programs for poppy farmers were among the casualties.

While official diplomatic relations remain on hold, U.S. officials have explored avenues for communication with the Taliban on issues like counter-narcotics through occasional, unofficial talks outside Afghanistan.

Sanctions imposed on Taliban leadership and entities currently prevent direct U.S. engagement in their counter-narcotics programs.

“Unfortunately, countries and organizations that have huge budgets and resources to prevent the cultivation and smuggling of poppy opiates do not help Afghans with alternative livelihoods,” said Mujahid, the Taliban defense minister whose father, Mullah Mohammad Omar, the founding Taliban leader, nearly eliminated poppy cultivation in 2000.

Omar’s poppy ban was disrupted by the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001.
It’s Time for America to Go Back to Afghanistan (New York Times – opinion)
New York Times [1/3/2024 4:14 PM, Kathy Gannon, 831K, Neutral]
It’s striking how much Afghanistan, which has the unfortunate legacy of being the site of America’s longest war, has all but disappeared from public discussion in the United States. But perhaps it’s understandable. After all, there always seems to be another conflict, another war — which, as it happens, is also Afghanistan’s history.

Since 1979, Afghans have lived in almost perpetual conflict. Millions of people have been forced to flee their homes or their country. Foreign interventions have come and gone, ending in failure, leaving Afghans and their neighbors to live with the consequences.

Today, America’s longest war is over. The U.S. Embassy in Kabul sits empty, a daily reminder of how America has sought to isolate Afghanistan since the U.S. military’s withdrawal in 2021. Washington has done so in an effort to pressure the ruling Taliban to moderate its views, including committing to women’s rights, expanding the government to non-Taliban members and addressing human rights abuses.

That tactic backfired the first time the group was in power. And vacant Western embassies aren’t going to get girls back to school or increase women’s participation in the work force. Instead, isolating the Taliban has served only to isolate Afghans, leaving many of them feeling alone and, worse, helpless.

It’s time to accept that past policies have failed and that the United States and its allies must change course and commit to greater engagement, which would in turn bring a better understanding of the realities in Afghanistan. Along with the large amount of humanitarian aid Washington provides, it’s time for America to return to Afghanistan and the 40 million people who live there. Washington should reopen its embassy in Kabul and commit to engaging with Afghans across society. Afghans need to know that the United States and others are there and that they can be depended upon.

As a journalist who worked in Afghanistan for decades, I have seen the country through its many wars and witnessed the results of successive failed policies. I watched as so many nations and international organizations scrambled to evacuate some of the country’s brightest and best-educated people. I watched the last U.S. aircraft fly out of the Kabul airport in 2021, bringing a frantic end to the war and ushering in the Taliban’s return to power.

I wondered then whether the world would ever be able to see Afghanistan for the striking country it is and to see Afghans — not just the Kabul elite and expatriates but also those in villages and cities, on farms that stretch for miles or in the rugged mountains — not as a problem to solve but as the very answer to lasting peace in their country.

When the Taliban previously controlled Afghanistan, from 1996 to 2001, Washington, the United Nations and others came down hard on Taliban leaders with conditions they were instructed to meet if they could hope to gain recognition by the United States and other nations. The Taliban were told to educate girls, end drug production and expel Osama bin Laden, who had lived there since the spring of 1996, before the Taliban took power.

But U.S. and U.N. sanctions closed off Afghanistan and undercut those among the Taliban who wanted to engage with the world and had a vision for their country that — while it might not have matched the conception in Western capitals — included having girls and boys attend school.

Most significantly, some of those Taliban members open to engagement did not support foreign fighters taking up residence in their country. As I reported at the time, the Taliban’s then deputy interior minister, Mohammad Khaksar, told me that in the years before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist strike on the United States, he had reached out to a U.S. diplomat and a C.I.A. official in neighboring Pakistan for help in expelling foreign fighters but was rebuffed. Gregory Marchese, at the time the vice consul at the U.S. Consulate in Pakistan’s northwestern city of Peshawar, later corroborated to me that he’d had that meeting with Mr. Khaksar and a C.I.A. official, Peter McIllwain. Mr. McIllwain later confirmed what Mr. Khaksar had said about it.

America did not focus on Afghanistan in the years after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, when it closed its embassy. This left Washington blind to what was taking shape there in the lead-up to Sept. 11. Over the past two years, Washington has pursued a similar policy, shunning a diplomatic return to Kabul and believing it can pressure Taliban leaders into educating girls and easing restrictions on women with the promise of international recognition. And once again, that notion is failing.

In my reporting on the Taliban movement since 2021, I have found that the most restrictive Taliban leaders have grown more assertive, capitalizing on the nation’s isolation to tighten their grip, at the expense of those who advocate international engagement and whose vision for their country does not exclude girls from education or seek to make women invisible.

Financially, America has continued to be generous to Afghanistan, providing significant humanitarian aid since the Taliban’s return to power. In fact, America remains one of the nation’s largest humanitarian donors — having spent about $2 billion on aid since leaving the country. (At the same time, the United States and European nations are holding more than $9 billion in Afghan assets, frozen since the Taliban’s return.) But humanitarian aid alone won’t help Afghanistan move forward.

The public face of the anti-Taliban movement in Afghanistan is composed of some of the same discredited warlords accused of war crimes and former generals who took charge after the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, some of whom have also been accused of — and denied — crimes against Afghan civilians. The United States has been engaged with those leaders, but they are part of the problem, not a solution.

Of course, America talks to the Taliban as well. U.S. officials have met with Taliban leaders in Qatar, where the group maintains a political office and where the U.S. diplomatic mission to Afghanistan is based. Washington’s special envoy, Thomas West, is the public face of America’s Afghanistan policy. He has met with the Taliban in Qatar to discuss topics like education for girls and humanitarian aid, and he holds meetings with the leaders of Afghanistan’s neighbors and those in the Middle East and Europe.

But it is engagement at a distance. That strategy offers a voice to only a few Afghans — the Kabul elite, expatriates and former government officials. That means U.S. officials don’t hear, see or understand what is happening on the ground. The United Nations has maintained a steady presence in the country since the Taliban took power, and nearly 20 nations, including Japan, China, Russia and some Middle Eastern nations, have maintained or established some sort of diplomatic presence there in the past two years. Until the United States and other Western nations do the same, there will be people in Afghanistan who will continue to feel alone and unable to make the changes that only they can make.

It would also be helpful if Western officials’ public statements aided in finding a path forward rather than inflaming sentiments. Speaking to Congress in April about how U.S. funds were being used in Afghanistan, the U.S. special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, John Sopko, said: “I would just say I haven’t seen a starving Taliban fighter on TV. They all seem to be fat, dumb and happy. I see a lot of starving Afghan children on TV. So I am wondering where all this funding is going.”

While Mr. Sopko’s concerns about how U.S. money was being spent may have been legitimate, that kind of caricature is not in anyone’s interest. The Taliban is a movement defined by its religious zeal, whose tribal roots are deeply wedged in Afghanistan’s conservative countryside. Respect goes far in Afghanistan — and a lack of respect goes equally far in unproductive directions.

The Taliban come from within Afghan society. That does not mean all Afghans support the relentless restrictions on girls and women, but it does mean that navigating a way forward requires deeper understanding, less arrogance and more of a homegrown Afghan solution.

And like it or not, that means returning to Afghanistan.
Pakistan
Terror Attacks Test Ties as Pakistan Hosts Talks with Afghan Taliban (VOA)
VOA [1/3/2024 1:01 PM, Ayaz Gul, 761K, Negative]
A high-powered delegation from Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban held crucial talks with Pakistan officials Wednesday in a bid to ease tensions stemming from a surge in deadly cross-border attacks blamed on terrorists based on Afghan soil.

Officials said Mullah Shirin Akhund, an influential Taliban leader, led his team of defense ministry and intelligence representatives at the meeting convened in Islamabad under what is known as the Joint Coordination Committee, or JCC. The committee was established to address border management and related security issues facing the two countries.

“In the JCC meeting, the two sides discussed coordination mechanisms to facilitate cross-border movement with a view to promoting people-to-people contacts,” a Pakistani foreign ministry statement said after the meeting. The ministry did not share further details on the delegation-level discussions.

Pakistani officials say that fugitive militants linked to anti-state Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, and allied groups have intensified cross-border attacks with “greater operational freedom” since the Islamist Taliban regained control of Afghanistan more than two years ago.

In 2023, TTP-led bombings and gun attacks killed nearly 1,000 Pakistanis, half of them security forces, nationwide, marking the highest number of fatalities in six years.

Officials in Islamabad maintain TTP leaders moved their operational bases to Afghan border provinces after the Taliban returned to power.

Taliban authorities reject allegations the TTP or any other groups are being allowed to threaten other countries, including Pakistan, from Afghan soil. They have repeatedly advised Islamabad not to blame Afghanistan for Pakistan’s “internal” security challenges.

Akhund is the governor of Kandahar province, which borders Pakistan. He is a known close associate of the reclusive Taliban chief, Hibatullah Akhundzada, who is also based in and governs the country from Kandahar through his male-only Cabinet in Kabul, the Afghan capital.

Taliban officials recently announced the arrest of dozens of TTP members in Afghanistan. They have also said during recent interactions with visiting senior Pakistani officials that they plan to move TTP members away from Afghan border areas and eventually “disarm” them.

But Pakistani officials have said they could not ascertain the veracity of the claims by Kabul. They were expected to press Taliban delegates during this week’s talks to hand over TTP leaders to Islamabad.

“Evidence about the crackdown on TTP is not visible,” a senior Pakistani official told VOA in the run-up to Wednesday’s meeting with the Afghan Taliban.

“If the Taliban are serious, then they should disarm the TTP cadres and detain their leadership, who are about a dozen persons,” said the official, who spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Pakistan says Afghan Taliban fighters have also participated in or facilitated some of the recent TTP-led attacks.

Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar said in a statement last month that at least 16 Afghan nationals have conducted suicide bombings inside his country, while another 65 were killed by Pakistani forces in counterterrorism operations.

In October, Kakar ordered a crackdown on at least 1.7 million undocumented Afghans in the country, forcing more than 500,000 individuals to cross back into Afghanistan.

The TTP, a globally designated terrorist organization, emerged in Pakistan’s traditionally volatile border areas in 2007 and has since routinely claimed responsibility for deadly attacks on security forces and civilians.

The militant group provided shelter and recruits to fugitive Taliban leaders as they directed years of insurgent attacks on the Afghan side of the border, targeting U.S.-led Western troops until they departed Afghanistan in August 2021.

Pakistan’s military was also persistently accused of supporting the Taliban insurgency against foreign forces and helping them retake power, accusations Islamabad rejects.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is indicted for allegedly insulting election officials (AP)
AP [1/3/2024 8:08 AM, Staff, 456K, Neutral]
A Pakistani court on Wednesday indicted imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan in a contempt case for allegedly insulting election officials, his defense lawyer said.

The indictment is another blow for Khan, who is serving time on a corruption conviction and has multiple other legal cases hanging over him.

It also comes days after election officials rejected Khan’s nomination papers, blocking his attempt to contest parliamentary polls on Feb. 8.

Khan is accused of calling the head of the Election Commission, Sikandar Sultan Rajaa, and other officials “personal servants” of former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Sharif replaced Khan in April 2022 after he was ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in Parliament by his political opponents. Since then, government agencies have pursued him in the courts.

The 71-year-old former cricketer is the country’s most popular opposition figure.

Khan’s lawyer, Naeem Haider Panjutha, said Khan was indicted at Adiala Prison in Rawalpindi.

He said during the court hearing, Khan pleaded not guilty when the charges were read to him. One of Khan’s former deputies, Fawad Chaudhry, was also indicted on the same charges.

Election officials say they rejected Khan’s candidacy because of his corruption conviction.
Pakistan police probes killing of six barbers in northwest (Reuters)
Reuters [1/3/2024 7:06 AM, Saud Mehsud, 5239K, Negative]
Pakistani authorities on Wednesday said they were investigating the murder of six barbers in a tribal region that has long been a hotbed for militants looking to impose their version of strict Islamic law, which includes mandatory beards for men.

The six barbers were shot dead late on Monday night outside their residence in the North Waziristan district, and the killings have sparked fear amongst locals.

It is not yet known what the motives of this incident are, we are investigating," district police chief Rokhan Zeb Khan told Reuters, confirming that the six barbers had been shot in the head.

The six, who ran different outlets offering grooming services, were not local residents and were living together close to their shops in the town of Mir Ali, where they were targeted by gunmen.

Khan said the barbers were from neighbouring province of Punjab. Previously outsiders have been attacked on allegations of being spies for Pakistan’s security and spy agencies.

The attack comes amidst an upsurge in attacks by militant groups, particularly by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP, however, denied it was responsible for the killings in a statement released to journalists by its spokesman.

No group has claimed responsibility.

"After this incident, I feel very scared, I don’t know whether to go to work or not," a barber shop owner in another town of North Waziristan, Miranshah, told Reuters by phone, asking for his name not to be published for security reasons.

"We are even more afraid because we (barbers) are non-locals, and we live here in rooms or shops, so we have no personal security," he added.

Pakistani political leaders - particularly those based in the country’s northwest - have already expressed concerns about the security situation ahead of national elections next month, questioning how proper elections could be held amidst an environment of fear.
Pakistani Protests: Baluch Women Seek Answers, Justice In Disappearance Of Loved Ones (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/3/2024 3:10 PM, Abubakar Siddique and Wasim Sajjad, 223K, Negative]
Sammi Deen Baloch recalls growing up happily in remote parts of Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan Province.

But her world crumbled in 2009 when she was just 10 years old.

That’s when her father, Deen Muhammad Baloch -- a doctor working in state health clinics providing care to the region’s neediest people -- was taken away by “intelligence agencies” because of his activism. He was a member of the separatist Baloch National Movement.

Traumatic Times

Now 25, Sammi Deen Baloch told RFE/RL that nobody knows what happened to her father. He never appeared in court and there has been no information about his whereabouts since then.

“We were a happy family before his disappearance, but our lives were traumatic after his forced disappearance,” she said.

In the 14 years since her father disappeared, Sammi Deen Baloch and her sister Mehlab have been relentless in trying to find their father.

“I have been to courts, countless protest camps, marched for thousands of kilometers, appeared before government commissions, and met numerous officials,” she said of her nonstop efforts.

“Yet uncertainty and delays haunt our lives,” she added.

Sammi Deen Baloch is part of a protest in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, where hundreds of ethnic Baluch activists are demanding that the government put an end to the forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings in Balochistan and provide information to the families about the fate of their loved ones.

They traveled more than 1,000 kilometers last month to demand that the government account for their relatives who were either killed or disappeared amid the 20 years of the nationalist insurrection.

They also want justice.

“We want the state to punish all accused after the due process of law,” she said.

Simmering Conflict

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, borders Iran and Afghanistan and is hemmed in by 1,000 kilometers of the Arabian Sea coast. Since 2000, numerous armed Baluch ethnonationalist groups have fought against Islamabad seeking secession.

Pakistan accuses the rebels of attacks on security forces, infrastructure that includes Chinese-funded projects, immigrants from the eastern Punjab Province, and even pro-government Baluch figures.

Baluch political groups, including those seeking greater autonomy through parliamentary politics, accuse Pakistan of engaging in grave rights abuses. They blame Islamabad for exploiting their vast natural resources and seeking to control the province by appointing pro-government figures who lack popular support.

The Baluch people are a majority of their province’s estimated 15 million residents but are a relatively small minority in the South Asian country of some 220 million people.

Thousands of Baluchis have been killed and hundreds of thousands displaced in the simmering conflict that began in the early 2000s.

According to Pakistan’s Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, it has received nearly 10,000 cases of forced disappearances in Pakistan as of August. Of these, more than 2,700 came from Balochistan.

Baluch activists, however, claim that the number of people missing is many times higher. Mahrang Baloch, a physician who is leading the protest in Islamabad, says forced disappearances in Balochistan continue unabated.

She told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal that they would only trust the Pakistani government if it acknowledged its involvement in such grave abuses of human rights.

“They should admit that they have been involved [in these actions], that their forces have been involved,” she said.

Pakistani Counterterrorism

But Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister, Anwar ul-Haq Kakar, strongly disagrees.

He told a gathering on January 1 that Islamabad is fighting against separatist groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Liberation Front, and the Baloch Republican Army.

“These groups have killed between 3,000 to 5,000 people,” he said, adding that the security forces kill many of the militants involved in the violence.

“We do acknowledge the right of protest of the relatives of these terrorists,” he said. “But we do not acknowledge the right of [those militants] to commit [acts of terror].”

Kakar also implied that the legal system has failed to deal with the perpetrators of the attacks that have caused mass casualties among security forces and citizens.

“We are being told to present [the disappeared] in courts," he said. "Over 90,000 people have been killed but not even nine perpetrators have been convicted."

Most of the some 90,000 Pakistani victims of militant attacks were ethnic Pashtuns. Their homeland in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa became the epicenter of Islamabad’s domestic war on terrorism after the demise of the Taliban’s hard-line government in Afghanistan. Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf’s government -- which ruled from 2001 to 2008 -- failed to prevent the Taliban and Al-Qaeda from regrouping in his country.

Mahrang Baloch said the main aim of their protest is to confront Islamabad’s longstanding views that all Baluchis killed extrajudicially or forcefully disappeared are terrorists simply because they were members or supporters of separatist groups.

“It is illegal, inhuman, and illogical to detain a person for 14 years in torture cells -- to detain a minor, to detain a woman, and not present them before courts,” she said.

Political Problem

Experts see a clear link between Islamabad’s use of excessive force and the growing protests among the Baluchis for basic human rights protections.

Kiyya Baloch, an exiled journalist who covers Balochistan, says the ongoing protest was prompted by the alleged killing of a young Baluch man in the custody of counterterrorism police in Balochistan’s remote Turbat district in late November.

"Locals were afraid that, if they failed to protest, it might result in further extrajudicial killings by law enforcement,” he said, adding that women played a crucial role in rallying support for the protest.

Kiyya Baloch argues that the core problem in Balochistan is political, not merely a counterterrorism problem, as Islamabad portrays it.

“It is a struggle for greater rights, control over resources, and autonomy,” he said. "But the mindset within the state’s security institutions perceives it as a security issue that must be dealt with by force."

He sees Islamabad’s approach to quell the nationalist rebellion by empowering loyalist politicians, silencing dissenting voices through violence and disappearances, imposing bans on nationalist political groups, and militarizing Balochistan as failing to address the central issue haunting Balochistan.

“The key to resolving this is to recognize it as a genuine indigenous issue that requires a political approach to resolve,” he said.
Military Men Want to Kickstart Pakistan’s Green Revolution (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [1/3/2024 8:00 PM, Betsy Joles, 5543K, Positive]
Pakistan sees farming potential amid the rolling sand dunes of Punjab’s Cholistan desert. Here, in the South Asian nation’s vast central plains, the government plans to lease massive tracts of state-owned land to overhaul an outdated agriculture sector.

But in an unusual arrangement, the military will have significant stake in the project, taking over a total expanse of as much as 4.8 million acres of land and helping to decide which individuals or global firms get parcels. That will give the army an outsize role in an industry vital to the economy and raises questions over profit made from public land, potentially at the expense of small farmers.

Pakistan’s government argues that corporate farming is essential to ensuring food security for its 240 million people. Over the past year, the country has struggled with runaway inflation and paltry foreign currency reserves.

Proponents of the agriculture plan say the army, which has huge influence in the way the country is governed, is uniquely suited to revitalize an ailing sector because of its power to fast-track projects. Others see potential pitfalls — including the risk that placing the military in control could hamper longer-term structural improvements needed to modernize farming.

Deals for the so-called Green Pakistan Initiative fall under a newly-created economic council co-led by the army and tasked with boosting foreign direct investment. The project is in large part aimed at targeting capital from friendly Middle East nations reliant on food imports. After former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif inaugurated it in July, he requested billions of dollars from Gulf countries to get it off the ground.

“The Green Pakistan Initiative is our shared national obligation, our responsibility,” Sharif said during the inauguration ceremony.

Though details are still unclear, the plan may involve a profit-sharing mechanism between the army and provincial governments. Pakistan’s military would also play a role in auctioning leases lasting as long as 30 years. These powers, along with military leadership in the new economic council, mean the armed forces could shape decisions around Pakistan’s farmland and investment priorities for decades.

A Flailing Industry

Pakistan’s agriculture sector has struggled to overcome hurdles including poor market access, outdated farming practices and, thanks to climate change, increasingly frequent droughts and floods. As in neighboring India, the majority of Pakistan’s farmers are smallholders, making it difficult to implement change at scale.

“We have land. We do not have resources. And we do not have technology,” said Sabbah Uddin, an analyst and farmer. “We lack a coherent strategy.”

Over the years, as Pakistan’s population has also expanded, pushing the government to look outward to meet its food needs. The country shifted from an exporter to an importer of wheat, one of its main cash crops. The average wheat yield for the past five years — 2.9 tons per hectare — is 17% lower than India, 49% lower than China and 47% lower than the European Union.

Continued reliance on a fraying industry, combined with threat of a changing climate, is “now raising serious concerns about the food security,” said Abdul Wajid Rana, a program leader at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Islamabad.

Corporate farming under the Green Pakistan Initiative is one avenue to boost crop yields. Late last year, Pakistan signed a memorandum of understanding with Kuwait for $10 billion worth of projects, including some focused on food security.

The government also has collaborations lined up with China Machinery Engineering Corp, an engineering and construction heavyweight, and China’s Famsun, an agriculture equipment company, according to a presentation about the initiative in November. Pakistan’s foreign investment council, the SIFC, will coordinate future agreements.

Companies involved say the initiative has already helped free up large parcels of land.

“Economies of scale are very important and this is what SIFC can deliver,” said Farrukh Amin, chief executive of Unity Foods Ltd., a Pakistani company involved in grain and oil production. Amin said the group signed a memorandum of understanding covering 75,000 acres of land in Punjab.

SIFC didn’t reply to written questions. Pakistan’s army also did not reply to requests for comment.

Fears of Eviction

The Green Pakistan Initiative has its share of critics. Earlier this year, the Lahore High Court temporarily blocked the Punjab government from giving 45,000 acres to the military, questioning the constitutionality of the move. But the stay order was eventually suspended and court documents show another million or so acres in Cholistan and elsewhere have been earmarked for the project.

“I think it’s one of those things that is too big to fail,” said Ahmad Rafay Alam, a lawyer who was part of a public interest petition against the land transfer in Punjab.

The army said in its submissions to the court that the Green Pakistan Initiative falls under its domain because food issues — including preventing famine — relate to national security.

In Chak No.20/ML, a village in Punjab’s Bhakkar district, people have other reasons to oppose the plan. Many fear the seizure of land they live on, which the government rented out decades ago under a dairy and livestock development scheme.

Muhammad Saleem, one of more than 150 people who signed a legal petition protesting a land transfer, said he’s entitled to ownership rights for a plot his father started cultivating in the 1950s after Partition forced him out of India and into Pakistan.

“We have settled in this forest because our people worked very hard,” Saleem said.

The Lahore High Court, however, has ruled that the Bhakkar petitioners don’t have formal leases for the land, though they’re considered tenants by the government.

Others worry that the ambitious plan will cut smallholders out of potential benefits. The price of land offered under the Green Pakistan Initiative is too steep for most, said Muzaffar Hotiana, a farmer in Pakpattan district who is considering sub-leasing land in Cholistan.

“Pakistani local farmers are not beneficiaries,” he said.

An Army’s Blueprint

The corporate farming push comes during a trying time for Pakistan. Economic headwinds pushed the government to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund last July.

With that backdrop, the army’s involvement could be seen as a positive by investors looking for stability, said Uzair Younus, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.

For much of Pakistan’s post-independence history, the army has played a significant role in politics, but over the years, it has also developed corporate interests. The military runs some 50 commercial entities, ranging from cement production to banking and real estate. SIFC will now give Pakistan’s armed forces formal clout in deals with foreign entities.

“That helps investors, particularly sovereign investors, like the Saudis and the Emiratis,” Younus said, noting that red tape is one of the main obstacles to doing business in Pakistan.

Still, the military’s involvement risks angering farmers. Army-run farms have been the site of opposition movements in the past and the commercial projects remain a contentious subject.

“The military’s corporate interests are a well-established fact,” said Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, associate professor of political economy at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, pointing to a long history of allotting agricultural land to military officers.

Through its business conglomerate Fauji Foundation, the military runs a food and dairy company called Fauji Foods, which only recently turned its finances around after years of struggles. A new business, FonGrow, will also develop high-tech agriculture facilities. The company started its first farm in Punjab last year.

In a November presentation in Karachi, Shahid Nazir, Director General of Strategic Projects for Pakistan’s army, said the scale of the Green Pakistan Initiative was already large, with 140,000 acres of land tied up with foreign investors so far.

Securing Pakistan

For Pakistan’s government, corporate farming is also a way to deal with the consequences of increasingly extreme weather.

Take the deserts of Cholistan, a maze of shifting sand and shrubs. The Green Pakistan Initiative is banking on the uptake of water-saving technologies in this part of the country. Finding more sustainable ways to irrigate is crucial for Pakistan, where agriculture accounts for more than 90% of water use.

Few doubt Pakistan’s agriculture needs to improve. It currently employs nearly two-fifths of Pakistan’s population but accounts for only a fifth of the country’s gross domestic product. The question is how to ensure locals are not short-changed if Pakistan’s limited land and water resources are turned toward exports.

“This nation needs hope,” Uddin, the farmer, said. “But a point may come when things will go out of our hands and we will get exploited.”

In the near term, the Green Pakistan Initiative aims to make the industry more productive by replacing imports and encouraging exportable surpluses of staple crops. Many plots available for lease are also in arid and underdeveloped regions, supporting irrigation initiatives.

If the vast desert does turn green, profits may well follow — all under the army’s watch.
India
Nikhil Gupta: India Supreme Court rejects plea from US murder plot accused (BBC)
BBC [1/4/2024 2:12 AM, Umang Poddar, 14.2M, Neutral]
India’s Supreme Court has said that it will not intervene in the case of an Indian man accused of conspiring to kill a Sikh separatist on US soil.

US prosecutors have charged Nikhil Gupta with trying to hire a hitman to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.

Mr Gupta is in jail in Prague, and his lawyer has said that the process to extradite him to the US has started.

"It is for the [Indian] government to take action," the Supreme Court said, rejecting the plea.

The petition, filed by an anonymous relative of Mr Gupta, had asked the Indian Supreme Court to aid his release and help him get a fair trial. His lawyer had also alleged that Mr Gupta was detained illegally.

"Looking at the principles of public international law and sovereignty and comity of courts we do not think any of the prayers can be granted," Justice Sanjay Khanna, one of the two judges on the bench, said, calling it a "sensitive matter". A copy of the order will be released later on Thursday.

Earlier, the Czech Republic’s ministry of justice had told The Indian Express newspaper that Indian courts had "no jurisdiction" in Mr Gupta’s case.

Mr Gupta made headlines in November when US prosecutors charged him with a plot to kill at least four Sikh separatists in North America, including Mr Pannun.

They said that Mr Gupta promised to pay $100,000 (£79,000) in cash to a hitman to assassinate Mr Pannun, a dual US-Canadian citizen, in New York. But the hitman was actually an undercover federal agent, prosecutors said.

Mr Gupta was allegedly directed by an Indian government official who was not named or charged in the indictment.

The charges against Mr Gupta carry up to 20 years in prison.

India has designated Mr Pannun a terrorist, an allegation he denies, claiming to be an activist who believes in the Khalistan movement for a separate Sikh homeland.

The petition in India claimed that Mr Gupta was arrested by "self-claimed" US federal agents and has not yet been given a fair trial. It also alleged that he was lodged in solitary confinement and was forced to eat beef and pork, which went against his religious beliefs.

The Supreme Court judges said that under international law, Mr Gupta would be entitled to consular assistance from India. But senior advocate C Aryama Sundaram, who represented Mr Gupta’s relative, said that he had been provided consular access only before the extradition order and that his client needed "some cooperation" from India’s foreign ministry.

The court then said that he was free to approach the Indian government.

The charges against Mr Gupta came months after Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country was looking at "credible allegations potentially linking" Indian government agents to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia. India has rejected the allegations and called them "absurd".

India has, however, said it will look into any evidence provided on its alleged links to the assassination plot in the US.

"If a citizen of ours has done anything good or bad, we are ready to look into it. Our commitment is to the rule of law," Prime Minister Narendra Modi told the Financial Times last month.
India races to contain fallout of Kashmir torture death allegations (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [1/3/2024 4:14 PM, Quratulain Rehbar, 293K, Neutral]
The deaths of three Jammu and Kashmir civilians allegedly at the hands of the Indian military have prompted an investigation, as an uptick in violence in the disputed Himalayan region threatens to undercut New Delhi’s narrative of peaceful development in an election year.

On Dec. 22, the day after four Indian Army soldiers were killed in an apparent ambush in the region, as many as nine men from a tribal community were detained for questioning. Families say they were tortured, resulting in three deaths -- Mohammad Showkat, 22, Safeer Hussain, 45, and Shabir Ahmad, 32.

A video showing what appears to be abuse of the men in custody went viral on social media, sparking widespread outrage and demands from political leaders for a proper probe. Nikkei Asia could not independently confirm the content of the footage, but it has renewed debate over human rights and the authorities’ conduct in India’s only Muslim-majority region, which is also claimed by nuclear archrival Pakistan.

Haji Mohammad Hussain, the 65-year-old uncle of Safeer Hussain, told Nikkei that after militants attacked the convoy of soldiers, his nephew was picked up. "Two men from security forces wearing plain clothes came to his house and said that the army captain was looking for him," he said. "Later we got to know how he was beaten up and tortured until he died."

As news of the deaths broke, the army responded with a statement: "Reports have been received regarding three civilian deaths in the area. The matter is under investigation. Indian Army stands committed to extending full support and cooperation in the conduct of investigations."

On Tuesday, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah led a high-level meeting on security and development in Kashmir, local media reported.

In addition to looking into the deaths, the administration in Kashmir has announced compensation and jobs for the families of the deceased. But Hussain was pessimistic. "It will take ages to get justice," he said.

The army routinely rounds up locals after militant attacks and, on several occasions, it has been accused of extrajudicial abuses. Activists say that the latest incident has refreshed memories of the killing of three tribal men by army soldiers in what was found to have been a "staged" gunfight in July 2020. Amid a similar storm of criticism, an army court convicted an officer and sentenced him to life imprisonment, yet he was granted bail this past November.

"Those three boys were also from our community. The government this time should give exemplary punishment to those involved as jobs and compensation to families is not justice," said Guftar Ahmad, a lawyer and tribal activist.

Critics say the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which allows Indian soldiers operating in Kashmir to avoid trials in civilian courts, grants them impunity. But the grim details of the latest case, in which the men were allegedly beaten before having chili powder applied to their wounds, appears to have put the authorities in a tight spot.

Mehmood Ahmed, the head of the village where the men were detained and who identified two civilians in the viral video, said they left behind families that depended on them. "This is extremely sad. These people belong to the village where there is even no availability of necessities like water. One civilian’s wife is pregnant. All we want is justice," he said.

Locals say anxiety over anti-militancy operations in the area is palpable. "In my entire life, I have never seen such a fear among locals. Children are even afraid of going to school," said Hussain.

This is not the story the government wants to be telling, particularly now. When India’s Supreme Court recently validated the Modi government’s move to strip Kashmir of its special status in 2019, the prime minister wrote on X, formerly Twitter, "I want to assure the resilient people of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh that our commitment to fulfilling your dreams remains unwavering."

Modi, who will be seeking a third term in power when the nation of 1.4 billion votes in the first half of 2024, added, "We are determined to ensure that the fruits of progress not only reach you but also extend their benefits to the most vulnerable and marginalized sections of our society who suffered due to Article 370," referring to the constitutional section that maintained a degree of autonomy for Kashmir.

At the same time, officials express concern about renewed militancy in the region, as India attempts a balancing act to maintain security in Kashmir as well as at its tense disputed border with China.

In 2020, amid a standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control in the Ladakh sector, the army’s Rashtriya Rifles counterinsurgency unit was moved from the hinterlands of Kashmir to the LAC. Kashmiri villages like Poonch and Rajouri had been declared militancy-free more than a decade ago. But since 2021, reports say more than 34 army personnel have been killed in the hilly, forested region.

"Any pullout of troops does temporarily create space for terrorists to operate and they could have taken advantage of this. However, additional troops have been sent to the area after [militants] became active," said D.S. Hooda, former general officer commanding-in-chief of the Indian Army’s Northern Command.

He told Nikkei that any killing of civilians in custody would affect the army’s image and its efforts to keep the local population on its side. But he suggested that the authorities’ response to the three deaths has been appropriate so far.

"I am glad that both the army and the government have quickly taken action to minimize any fallout that this incident could have," he said.
India’s Russian oil imports drop on pricing, not due to payment woes (Reuters)
Reuters [1/3/2024 6:21 AM, Nidhi Verma, 5239K, Neutral]
India’s oil imports from Russia fell due to unattractive pricing and not because of payment problems, oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Wednesday.

"There is no payment problem ... It is a pure function of the price at which our refineries will buy," Puri told a press conference.

India’s December Russian oil imports fell to an 11-month low as five ships loaded with light sweet Sokol grade headed to other locations after the U.S. imposed sanctions on some vessels and shippers for not complying with the G7-fixed $60 per barrel price caps for oil at Russian ports.

"India’s leadership has only one requirement that the Indian consumer gets the energy at the most economical price, without disruption," he said, adding on an average India buys 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian oil.

He said oil companies have not yet complained to him about facing any problems in settling payments for oil imports.

"If they (Russia) don’t offer us (good) discount why would we buy from them," Puri said in Hindi, adding that new oil producers in far flung regions are willing to offer better discounts than Russia on crude sales.

He refused to elaborate on new suppliers that are offering better prices.

India, the world’s third biggest oil importer and consumer, has emerged as a top buyer of sea-borne Russian oil sold at a discount after Western entities retreated following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

He said the global markets have plenty of oil and there would be no supply constraints.
ArcelorMittal JV, others commit $86 bln in India’s Gujarat ahead of investment summit, says state (Reuters)
Reuters [1/3/2024 12:05 PM, Sumit Khanna, 5239K, Neutral]
India’s Gujarat state on Wednesday said it has signed initial investment agreements worth $86 billion with 58 companies including steelmaker ArcelorMittal’s joint venture and others operating in sectors such as energy, oil and gas, and chemicals.

Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been signing these agreements ahead of its biennial Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit which is scheduled to take place in state capital Gandhinagar from Jan. 10 to Jan. 12.

The summit is expected to draw a record number of foreign and domestic investors to the western state this month in what is being seen as Modi’s big push to promote investment in the South Asian nation just months ahead of its national election, where he will seek a third term.

The companies that signed the pacts included ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, which signed a 1.14 trillion rupees ($13.68 billion) pledge for a green hydrogen project, an integrated steel plant and expansion of its existing steel manufacturing capacity in the state, according to a state government document.

NTPC Renewable Energy Limited proposed an investment of 900 billion rupees ($10.80 billion) to create 15 gigawatt (GW) renewable energy parks and projects to meet the agricultural sector’s power needs, a senior Industries Department official said.

NTPC also proposed a further investment of $8.40 billion for fuel cell electric vehicle mobility, hydrogen blending with natural gas, production of green chemicals such as ammonia and methanol, the official added.

Torrent Power (TOPO.NS) similarly signed an agreement to invest 474 billion Indian rupees ($5.69 billion) to create solar power projects with 3,450 MW and 7,000 MW capacity, green hydrogen and ammonia manufacturing plants, and distribution networks in cities including Ahmedabad and Surat.

NTPC, Torrent and ArcelorMittal did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The state government had signed similar investment agreements totalling $18.75 billion last month.
Can 2024 Bring a New Breakthrough in China-India Relations? (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/3/2024 10:54 AM, Ivan Lidarev, 201K, Neutral]
2023 was a year of disappointed expectations in China-India relations. The long-expected thaw between the two sides did not materialize and the standoff on their disputed border, which began when a violent military crisis erupted in 2020, continued.

Nevertheless, 2023 saw some stabilization in relations, which offers promise for the future. Not only did the two sides discuss resolving the border standoff and signal interest in restoring some normalcy in their relations, but their heavily militarized border remained mostly quiet in the last year.

The spring and summer of 2023 were marked by expectations for a thaw in China-India relations that would stabilize the border, bring relations back to normal, and allow some cooperation between Beijing and Delhi. With momentum from the 2022 handshake and brief exchange between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Indonesia, disengagement in five areas on the border, and the fast and quiet resolution of the December 2022 border clash at Yangtse, the background seemed favorable.

Meetings between the defense and foreign ministers of the two sides as part of India’s hosting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization allowed discussion of border tensions, while the 19th round of the corps commander-level talks produced an agreement that the two sides should resolve the remaining issues on which they disagreed “in an expeditious manner.”

The momentum for a breakthrough grew as India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks before their respective leaders were scheduled to meet and worked on disengagement in the two remaining areas of immediate tensions on the border. With The Economist proclaiming a “detente” between China and India, Xi and Modi discussed relations in person at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg and agreed “to intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation,” according to the Indian side.

However, the emerging thaw did not materialize. Xi did not attend the G-20 summit in Delhi in September and the border talks have not yet produced a breakthrough. The most likely immediate reason for this failed thaw was that negotiations did not yield an agreement on complete disengagement between the two armies on the border, the designation of buffer zones between them, and the establishment of positions to withdraw to.

At a deeper level, the unsuccessful thaw highlights the fundamental issues that have soured China-India relations, including the India-U.S. partnership to counter Beijing, the military race between the two sides, and their growing competition in South Asia as China makes inroads in Bhutan and the Maldives. More broadly, the competition between China and India had generated deepening mistrust, a mistrust that was further exacerbated in 2023 as India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation.

Just as important, the strategies of both sides toward their relationship make a breakthrough more difficult. New Delhi has decided not to unfreeze relations until China makes major concessions on the border and preferably returns to the pre-2020 status quo. Beijing has adopted a dual approach of pressuring India on the border and in South Asia and engaging it simultaneously for the purpose of restoring relations. The Chinese goal is to make India, pressured by Chinese actions and tired of the unsustainable status quo, normalize relations either without major Chinese concessions on the border or at a very low price for Beijing. Both strategies make negotiations a test of wills and reduce the room for compromise.

All is not bad news, however. 2023 also saw a continuation of the recent trend toward stabilization of China-India relations. Most importantly, the disputed border has remained relatively quiet, with no further escalation or clashes during the last year, in sharp contrast to the three previous years. Although the tense situation between the two militaries deployed close to the border persists – particularly in the Western Sector, where a military standoff continues – this relative calm around the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border, indicates that both Beijing and New Delhi seek to deescalate the border situation and overcome the military and political crisis that erupted in 2020.

Moreover, the two sides are actively talking to each other and discussing their troubled relationship and the tense situation on the disputed border. This has been happening both between the military and diplomatic establishments of the two countries, and between their top leaders. Negotiations on stabilizing the border itself continue, most recently with the 28th round of talks that form part of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs. While negotiations do not equal progress, their intensification in the last year and the language of the official statements of both sides suggests that there is building momentum toward stabilizing the border and restoring some normalcy in relations.

All this offers some hope for improving relations in 2024. Apart from the momentum in negotiations, it seems that the international situation is more favorable to normalizing China-India relations, with the recent straining of relations between India and the United States, a Chinese push to improve its international position through greater engagement, and a limited thaw between Beijing and Washington.

Of course, such an improvement in relations is likely to happen only after the Indian parliamentary elections this year. Even if it happens, which is not certain, it would be only a partial return to normalcy. It would be extremely difficult to turn the clock back to 2019 as the events of the last four years have deeply affected relations and intensified Sino-Indian rivalry.

In sum, 2023 was a year in which many expected a thaw in China-India relations but were disappointed. However, the outgoing year also had another side; it witnessed a further stabilization of relations and accelerated negotiations, both of which generated some positive momentum for 2024. Will the new year see the turning of a new page in China-India relations or just more disappointment?
India TB: Can vaccines help India triumph over tuberculosis? (BBC)
BBC [1/3/2024 6:06 PM, Nikhila Henry, 13914K, Neutral]
In 2018, India set for itself the lofty goal of eliminating pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) by 2025 - five years ahead of the deadline set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

In March 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated this commitment at the One World TB Summit, held in the northern city of Varanasi.

But the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) Global Tuberculosis Report paints a different picture - every two minutes, one person dies of the disease in India.

According to the report, India accounted for the highest global TB burden, with 27% of the 10.6 million people diagnosed with the infection in 2022. The country is also home to 47% of people who developed multi-drug resistant infection which is unresponsive or resistant to at least two of the first line of anti-TB drugs the same year.

While experts say testing and treatment remain the best-known ways to tackle the disease, India has also invested in trying to find an effective TB vaccine - since 2019, scientists have been testing two vaccines in seven research centres.

But TB vaccines are not that easy to develop.

"We don’t know what exactly we want the vaccine to do. Until we have a fundamental understanding of how humans do or do not resist the tubercle bacillus [TB bacteria], it is difficult to engineer a vaccine that capitalises on that knowledge," says Dr Marcel A Behr, director of infectious diseases division at Canada’s McGill University Health Centre.

Which means that so far, there is no clarity on whether a TB vaccine should induce antibodies, antigen-specific T-cells (combative cells generated by specific bacteria parts) or boost innate immunity.

Dr Behr adds that the quest for a vaccine has also been hampered because the test for TB cannot distinguish between a current and past infection - the current test merely tells us that a person was infected with the bacteria and not whether the infection is ongoing or healed.

"Following people forward in time to learn who clears their infection and who does not is difficult when your test cannot distinguish between these outcomes," Dr Behr adds.

But scientists at the government-backed Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) have been doing exactly this - observing household contacts of TB patients for four years to determine whether they have developed TB - living with the infected increases the risk of getting the disease. If all goes well, the results of the trial will be out by March, ICMR researchers told the BBC.

The ICMR has been testing a recombinant BCG vaccine candidate named VPM1002 and a heat-killed suspension mycobacterium vaccine named Immuvac.

To put it simply, the first vaccine has the modified DNA of TB bacteria and the second is TB bacteria that have been killed by heat. If they prove effective, they could stimulate an immune response against TB.

The trial has three groups - two have been given one dose of each of the vaccines, while the third has received a placebo. But the participants - 12,000 people above the age of six years - don’t know which treatment they have received.

"The vaccine efficacy study aims to reduce the incidence of TB among household contacts," says Dr Banu Rekha, who is leading the trial at ICMR’s National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai.

Some experts, such as Dr Behr, think the trial may have gone on too long. In a high transmission setting in which several people have active or latent TB, a successful vaccine "should demonstrate efficacy" in one to two years, he says.

There are other challenges too.

For a TB vaccine to be effective, first it should work, and secondly, shots will have to be administered to almost all of India’s population.

"Millions in India live with latent TB," says Chapal Mehra, a public health specialist. Latent TB patients are infected with the disease but do not have any symptoms.

Experts also point out that a 17-year-long BCG vaccine trial held between 1968 and 1987 - involving more than 280,000 people in Tamil Nadu state - ended with disappointing results.

"BCG did not offer any protection against adult form of bacillary pulmonary TB," according to a 1999 report on the trial.

There cannot be a one-stop solution for TB, experts say, because it is a "complicated disease" that has social, economic and behavioural contributory factors.

"Why is TB often called a poor person’s disease? A poor person who can only afford poor housing and bad nutrition is more susceptible to contracting TB. To eliminate TB, the disease and its contributory factors have to be understood holistically," Mr Mehra says.

India has a comprehensive DOTS (Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course) programme recommended by the WHO under which people detected with TB can get treated for free in government health facilities.

But public hospitals are stretched and sometimes ineffective, forcing tens of thousands of TB patients to turn to private health providers.

There are other challenges - in 2020 and 2021, the federal government gave 20bn rupees ($240m; £189m) to 7.5 million TB patients for treatment through a direct benefit transfer programme. But experts say the monthly figure per patient is too small to make a meaningful impact.

Nutrition experts also say that providing good nutrition to the contacts of those with TB significantly reduces the incidence of the disease. In a recent study published by Lancet, Madhavi Bhargava and Anurag Bhargava wrote that good nutrition reduced all forms of TB by 40% and infectious TB by 50% in contacts of patients they observed over six months.

"An effective TB vaccine is critical in decreasing the TB burden. But it would be desirable to see vaccination and nutritional improvements as complementary interventions," said Dr Madhavi Bhargava, a public health specialist,

Ideally, Dr Behr says, the world needs a three-pronged TB elimination system - which includes optimised testing and treatment, maximised nutrition and a vaccine which "not only prevents the disease but also blocks transmission".
NSB
Young voters in Bangladesh dream of a future free from political chaos as the nation votes Sunday (AP)
AP [1/3/2024 10:25 PM, Julhas Alam and Al-Emrun Garjon, 22K, Neutral]
At a technology center in Bangladesh’s capital, young women huddle around a computer, discussing a coding issue. Many of them make the daily trip to Dhaka on the shining new metro rail while scouring their smartphones for the latest on social media.

For decades, political battles in Bangladesh have been fought on the streets, often with violence, by parties led by two powerful women. But there are signs of a generational change as the country of 169 million heads into another general election Sunday.

While an opposition boycott and acrimony tarnish the polls, millions of young voters are seeking a different narrative. A burgeoning technology industry, lively e-commerce and a growing public digital infrastructure are helping one of South Asia’s fastest growing economies capitalize on a tech-savvy workforce that is demanding change from politicians.

Ahead of the election, boycotted by the main opposition led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is trying to woo first-time voters with her government’s “Digital Bangladesh” project, promising a “smart Bangladesh” by 2041 and 15 million new jobs for young people by 2030.

In an address at a large election rally outside Dhaka on Saturday, Hasina asked young voters for their support “so that the advancement of Bangladesh continues.”

Some are listening. Shahrima Tanjin Arni, 26, who teaches law at Dhaka University, called Hasina a bold leader with a vision for a digital future.

“She holds the values of the past, but at the same time, she has a progressive thinking in her progressive heart, which is not very common in Bangladeshi societies,” Arni said.

The previous two general elections were marred by allegations of vote-rigging and intimidation, which authorities denied. Hasina, seeking a fourth consecutive term, pledges a free and fair election. But her critics allege she is undermining the process for an inclusive election and suppressing the opposition, which Hasina blames for violence.

Younger voters say they want a break from the highly polarized political culture and concerns over democratic rights.

“My desire is that … people of Bangladesh will freely exercise their voting right, their freedom of speech will be ensured and the justice system will work independently,” said Abdur Rahim Rony, a student at Dhaka University. “I also wish that no political party or the government will interfere with the constitutional institutions.”

One-fourth of the country’s population is in the 15-29 age group, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Almost one-third of the country’s 119.1 million registered voters are between 18 and 30.

An October survey by the Bangladesh Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, or sustainable development goals, conducted online and involving 5,075 people aged 18-35, found that 69% of young people in Bangladesh considered corruption and nepotism as the main obstacles to development as the country sheds its least-developed economic status and grows into a middle-income developing country.

“We don’t want any chaos on streets or violence. When I will finish my study, I wish to do a job or start my own business peacefully,” said 20-year-old Raul Tamjid Rahman, a first-time voter and computer science student at Brac University in Dhaka. “It’s a call from our generation to our politicians and policymakers.”

The telecom boom in Bangladesh began in 1997 when Hasina issued free licenses to three operators to run the mobile phone sector. It was a key chance for global companies to invest in one of the world’s most densely populated countries.

“The expansion of digital economy is a miracle that is bringing changes to the economic landscape, with young people at the helm,” said Abu Saeed Khan, a senior policy fellow at the Sri Lanka-based think tank LIRNEasia.

According to the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission, the country now has close to 127 million internet users, with about 114 million mobile internet subscribers.

The government has spent millions of dollars to turn a network of 8,500 rural post offices into e-centers for local communities. New startups include some funded by Silicon Valley investors, and mobile money transfers have become common. Most of Bangladesh’s 4 million garment workers, a majority of them women, use SMS-based money transfer apps to help their families in rural areas.

But inflation and dwindling foreign currency reserves still challenge Bangladesh’s economy. The country sought a $4.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund in 2022 to safeguard its finances.

The government is optimistic, however, that the economy, which grew from $8.75 billion in 1971 to $460 billion in 2022, will soon be worth half a trillion dollars.

“Mobile voice and mobile video both have become the oxygen of (the) economy, as simple as that,” analyst Khan said.

The expansion of digital infrastructure has come with concerns over a contentious 2018 Digital Security Act and its recent replacement, the Cyber Security Act. The government says they are needed to fight misinformation, hacking and attempts to undermine people’s rights.

Critics and rights activists said the previous law was misused by the government to suppress dissent and freedom of speech. Critics say the new cyber security law will not bring many differences. In March, a journalist for a leading newspaper was arrested under the law on charges of spreading false news.

T.I.M. Nurul Kabir, executive director of the Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said that despite challenges, Bangladesh’s digital development is attracting young people.

“This is the new generation who are coming ahead with innovations,” he said. “For a developed Bangladesh, these young people, these digital dreamers, are the backbone. Women are also increasingly joining that future journey.”

Tech entrepreneur Achia Nila is one of them.

“Technology is super important in my daily life. It fits into everything I do,” Nila said, adding that it helps to connect with clients and the international market.

Ahead of Sunday’s election, Nila called on political parties not to fight and instead focus on working together to further develop Bangladesh.

Many young people feel frustrated with corruption and bureaucracy, she said, and warned that they may prefer to migrate to other countries because of better opportunities.
Bangladesh deploys army to keep peace ahead of Sunday’s election (Reuters)
Reuters [1/3/2024 7:28 AM, Ruma Paul and Sudipto Ganguly, 5239K, Negative]
Troops deployed across Bangladesh on Wednesday amid fears of violence ahead of a national election which the main opposition party is boycotting.

Soldiers travelled in armoured vehicles to temporary camps set up across the capital Dhaka to help the civil administration maintain peace and security.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is boycotting the election, set to take place on Sunday, after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina refused to agree to their demands that she resign and cedes power to a neutral authority to run the poll.

Hasina has repeatedly blamed the BNP for instigating anti-government protests that have rocked Dhaka since late October and in which at least 10 people have been killed.

The troops will only act on request from polling officers, the military said in a statement.

The navy was deployed in two coastal districts and the air force will provide helicopter assistance to polling stations in remote hilly areas, it added.

People fear that the violence that has swept Bangladesh in the last two months could return after the poll.

"I don’t care which party is in power. I just want some peace so that I can earn and feed my family," said Abdul Hamid, 48, a rickshaw puller in Dhaka.

"I don’t think after the election there will be peace. If there is political turmoil, it is difficult for us to survive. This is not a way of running a country. We are so confused about our future."

Hasina, who has maintained tight control since coming to power in 2009, has been accused of authoritarianism, human rights violations, cracking down on free speech and suppressing dissent while jailing her critics.

Her main rival and two-time premier, BNP leader Khaleda Zia, is effectively under house arrest for what her party calls trumped-up corruption charges. Her son and BNP’s acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, is in exile after several charges were brought against him that he denies.

Hasina’s government is under pressure from Western countries to hold free and fair elections.
Exiled opposition leader condemns ‘sham’ Bangladesh election (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [1/3/2024 10:11 PM, Staff, 11975K, Negative]
Bangladesh’s election on Sunday will be a "sham" designed to cement Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s rule, exiled opposition leader Tarique Rahman has told AFP in an exclusive interview defending his party’s boycott.

Rahman is heir to one of the country’s two main political dynasties -- the other led by Hasina -- and has helmed its largest opposition party since the 2018 jailing of his mother, two-time premier Khaleda Zia.

Six years ago he was convicted in absentia of masterminding a deadly grenade attack on a campaign rally for Hasina -- a charge he insists is fabricated -- and sentenced to life imprisonment.

His party staged a months-long protest campaign last year demanding the prime minister’s resignation that saw at least 11 people killed and thousands of its supporters arrested.

In his first interview with a major international media outlet for several years, Rahman, 56, said it would be inappropriate to have his party participate in a vote with a "predetermined" outcome.

"Bangladesh is approaching another sham election," he told AFP by email from London, where he has lived since 2008.

"Participating in an election under Hasina, against the aspirations of the Bangladeshi people, would undermine the sacrifices of those who fought, shed blood and gave their lives for democracy."

Rahman said the odds against his Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and dozens of other parties which joined the boycott had been overwhelmingly stacked against them by the ruling Awami League.

He accused it of fielding "dummy" opposition candidates aligned with the ruling party to give the election a patina of legitimacy.

This would create "an impression of competition even though all results are predetermined", he said.

He also claimed the party was attempting to drive up turnout by threatening to withhold government benefits from those who did not vote for Awami League candidates.

The United States, which sanctioned Bangladeshi security forces in 2021 over allegations of rights abuses, and other countries have also voiced their concerns about the conduct of this week’s vote.

Hasina, in power since 2009, has repeatedly vowed that the election would be credible, after observers said previous polls won by her party in 2014 and 2018 were marred by irregularities.

"Go to the polling stations and cast votes in the morning to show the world that we know how to hold the election in a free and fair manner," she told a Saturday campaign rally.
Twin dynasties

Rahman and Hasina’s families have between them ruled the world’s eighth-most populous nation for all but 12 years since 1971.

Rahman’s father, a former army chief, took the reins of the country after the assassination of Hasina’s father, serving as president until his own assassination in 1981.

His mother Zia once teamed up with Hasina to restore democracy after a period of military rule, before the two became bitter adversaries as they competed for political power from the 1990s onward.

Rahman has kept a low profile in London since leaving his country shortly before Hasina took power.

He is rarely seen in public outside of weddings for prominent members of the Bangladeshi diaspora or events marking national holidays.

But with Zia jailed for corruption in 2018 and now confined to a Dhaka hospital in deteriorating health, Rahman has led the South Asian country’s largest opposition party in her stead, speaking daily with cadres through video and phone conferences.

Last year the BNP mounted huge rallies, industrial strikes and road blockades that brought the capital to a standstill.

The campaign demanded Hasina resign and appoint a neutral caretaker government to oversee the election, an earlier convention in Bangladeshi politics that her government had abolished.

One rally in October ended in bloodshed and the BNP said around 25,000 opposition activists had been arrested in the ensuing crackdown. The government puts the figure at 11,000.

Hasina has accused Rahman of orchestrating violence that accompanied the protest campaign and raised the prospect of banning the BNP after the vote.

"We will not allow him to give orders from London to harm and kill people," she said on Saturday.
‘Brutal and blatant’

Rahman denied accusations that his party was responsible for a spate of arson attacks during the protests, which he described as a pretext for the government’s crackdown.

But his own political career has long been under a cloud.

A leaked US embassy cable from 2008 calls him a "notorious and widely feared... symbol of kleptocratic government" who had "flagrantly" demanded bribes in return for procurement decisions and political appointments.

He was frequently accused of corruption during his mother’s last premiership and was convicted of graft while in exile. He maintains his innocence.

Rahman was also convicted while abroad of organising a 2004 grenade attack on a political rally that injured Hasina and killed at least 20 others.

He insists the verdict was politically motivated and accused Hasina of rewarding the police officer who led the probe against him with a parliamentary nomination for this week’s election.

"I am being targeted in a brutal and blatant manner," he said.

"Even after fifteen years of power, this regime has failed to produce (any) single genuine evidence."
Bangladesh ruling party accused of intimidation to spur election turnout (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [1/3/2024 10:09 PM, Faisal Mahmud, 293K, Negative]
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina looks set to cruise to victory in the country’s election on Sunday, with the main opposition boycotting polls it considers unfair. But despite the lack of suspense over the outcome, her ruling Awami League faces a battle to ensure a reasonable turnout and give the voting an air of legitimacy.

Sharmeen Murshid, who heads the respected election observer group Brotee, described the upcoming polls as the "most bizarre and absurd election" imaginable.

"Instead of asking for votes, candidates are asking voters to come to the poll booth," she told a public forum recently. "In my long career as an election observer, I haven’t seen anything like it before."

The election has been mired in controversy from the start, with the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party demanding that Hasina resign so that it can be held under a neutral caretaker government. This came after the previous two elections, in 2014 and 2018, were marred by similar tensions and significant irregularities. But despite pressure from the opposition as well as Western powers to hold free and fair polls, Hasina -- who insists she defends the democratic process -- has refused to budge.

Many consider Sunday’s election a tipping point for Bangladeshi democracy itself.

The BNP is not only boycotting but has announced a non-cooperation movement to press its demand for neutral oversight. Highlighting the often fraught nature of Bangladeshi elections, this echoes a similar move by the then-opposition Awami League and its allies nearly three decades ago, when the BNP went ahead with its own "one-sided" election.

But the BNP movement is struggling to gain traction. Many of its top leaders and activists, including secretary general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, are languishing in jail after they were rounded up following protests and denied bail. The party says at least five of its members have died in prison under "abnormal circumstances" in the last month, demanding "a full judicial and impartial investigation."

In many areas, ruling party backed-candidates or their associates are not just "asking" voters to come out but threatened to strip social benefits if they do not.

According to the Ministry of Finance, in the last full fiscal year, around 12.8 million people from the most vulnerable class of society received direct support form the government. Getting on the list of beneficiaries tends to be a political process, as the heads of upazila, the lowest level of civil administration akin to counties, play a key role. Almost all 473 currently belong to the Awami League.

At least three viral videos appear to show ruling party leaders making such threats. On one occasion, Ramesh Chandra Sen, a member of the Awami League’s advisory council and a candidate from a northern district, told a public gathering that if they are beneficiaries of various government programs and do not participate in voting, their names will be cut from the list.

"I stand by my words. I have added names, and I will remove them. At polling centers, center committee members, including our district president and general secretary, will record your attendance. If you don’t come, your name will be removed," Sen said.

The Election Commission later served a notice to Sen asking him to explain his remarks.

Many analysts are aghast at the way this election is unfolding.

"By threatening to strip the social benefits of millions of people, including the poor, old and destitute, the AL regime showed to what extent a modern-day fascist government could go to [legitimize] a farcical election to the international community," Saimum Parvez, fellow of political science at Vrije University in Brussels, told Nikkei Asia.

"This is a bizarre situation where the presence of the voters is only necessary to justify a predetermined candidate, not to elect their representative," Parvez said.

In the absence of a proper opposition, the Awami League has asked its politicians who were not chosen to be its official candidates to stand as independent ones, presumably to increase the number of contestants and give the election a "competitive" look.

But this strategy of pushing "dummy candidates" -- a term used by Prime Minister Hasina herself -- has sparked other tensions in some areas. Critics accuse the ruling party of going to unusual lengths to ensure there are no surprises.

In the southern district of Cox’s Bazar, Awami League MP Zafar Alam, who failed to secure a nomination this time but stands as an independent candidate, complained of being coerced by an intelligence agency to back off from the campaign.

At least 15 local representatives under Alam’s constituency wrote a letter, seen by Nikkei Asia, to the Election Commission, stating that "an intelligence agency put immense pressure and threatened them" to work for an Awami League-nominated candidate.

Election Commissioner Anisur Rahman told Nikkei that they have received the complaint and are looking into it. "We are trying our best to ensure a free and fair poll," he said. "All complaints are taken care of with due process."

Some warn that deploying dummy candidates could backfire in the long run. "This strategy will surely create a permanent fault line within AL," Dhaka-based political analyst Zahed Ur Rahman said.

However, Bahauddin Nasim, joint secretary general of the Awami League, insisted that party unity is "stronger than any time" and that it is simply encouraging independent candidates to give voters more options.

"We believe in democracy. If the opposition boycotts the election, what can we do? We can only ask more candidates to participate," Nasim told Nikkei.

BNP Joint Secretary General Rahul Kabir Rizvi, one of the few top leaders still out of jail, was not buying it.

"The government is playing an election game by openly sharing seats with other parties, which is unprecedented in the world," he told a virtual briefing recently. "They are making a mockery of the election. The results are already prepared, only to be announced on Jan. 7."
‘Dummy’ candidates, coerced voting: Inside Bangladesh’s election ‘charade’ (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [1/3/2024 4:14 PM, Faisal Mahmud, 2.1M, Neutral]
Hasanul Islam Ador, an elected representative in a rural area in southern Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar district, was taken aback when a group of officials in plain clothes barged into his home last week.

Ador said the officers threatened him, saying he should stop campaigning for Zafar Alam, an independent candidate for the national election to be held on Sunday.

Alam is a current member of parliament representing Cox’s Bazar for the ruling Awami League (AL) party, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

When Alam failed to secure his party’s nomination for this year’s election, he was asked by the party leadership to run as an independent contender – one of what analysts and critics say are hundreds of so-called “dummy” candidates propped by the party to make the election look free and fair.

Hasina, 76, has been in power for 15 straight years – the longest-serving leader in Bangladesh’s history.

Her tenure has been marked by allegations of authoritarian rule, targeting of the opposition, the suppression of people’s rights, and large-scale vote rigging in elections held to keep her in power.

As she seeks a record fourth term in Sunday’s vote, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by ailing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has decided to boycott the vote, as it did in 2014.

Zia, 78, was jailed for more than two years over corruption charges and was moved to house arrest over health concerns in 2020. She denies the allegation, saying her conviction was politically motivated.

The BNP says it does not have any confidence in Hasina presiding over a free and fair election. It demanded Hasina step down to make way for a caretaker government to organise the vote.

But the demand was met with a severe government crackdown, which saw tens of thousands of BNP members arrested and at least 11 of them killed by security forces during street protests, raising concerns over valid elections in the garments hub of the world.

In September, the United States, the top buyer of Bangladeshi garments, said it was imposing a visa ban on the country’s officials who undermine the democratic election process.

Two months later, Human Rights Watch condemned the arrests of opposition members and said “the government’s autocratic crackdown will jeopardise future economic cooperation” with other countries.

‘Mockery of our democracy’

Since the opposition’s boycott call, Hasina’s party had been scrambling to field independent – or “dummy” – candidates to make the election look fair.

The “competitive make-up”, as analysts call the move, saw the Awami League fielding candidates like Alam in the fray, but at the same time, ensuring the ballot does not throw up any surprises for the party.

To ensure the results are in favour of the ruling party, the government is allegedly using law enforcement machinery and intelligence agencies to intimidate and threaten independent candidates.

“The people who barged into my home were from an intelligence agency,” Ador told Al Jazeera. “They came to my house and threatened me to stop campaigning for Zafar Alam and seek votes for a particular candidate.”

Ador and more than a dozen other local representatives in Alam’s constituency wrote a letter to the Bangladesh Election Commission, saying “an intelligence agency had put immense pressure and threatened them” to work for an Awami League candidate.

The commission acknowledged receiving such a letter to Al Jazeera, with election officials saying they were “seriously looking into the complaint”.

Without the main political opposition contesting, there is little uncertainty as to what the results of the Sunday vote will be.

“This election is a charade,” prominent Bangladeshi rights activist Shahidul Alam told Al Jazeera. “It’s a mockery of our democracy – whatever is left of it.”Ador and more than a dozen other local representatives in Alam’s constituency wrote a letter to the Bangladesh Election Commission, saying “an intelligence agency had put immense pressure and threatened them” to work for an Awami League candidate.

The commission acknowledged receiving such a letter to Al Jazeera, with election officials saying they were “seriously looking into the complaint”.

Without the main political opposition contesting, there is little uncertainty as to what the results of the Sunday vote will be.

“This election is a charade,” prominent Bangladeshi rights activist Shahidul Alam told Al Jazeera. “It’s a mockery of our democracy – whatever is left of it.”

The BNP has not only boycotted the election but has also announced a non-cooperation movement, asking people not to vote on Sunday.

As a result, the ruling Awami League’s main concern at the moment is to ensure a “reasonable” voter turnout, according to its official Bahauddin Nasim. To do that, the party has allegedly resorted to “undue” measures.

In many constituencies, members of the ruling party have been accused of threatening to strip people of the government’s social benefits schemes if they fail to appear in polling booths on election day.

Nearly 13 million people, belonging to the most vulnerable groups, receive direct social benefits from the government, according to the finance ministry’s data. Moreover, getting on the government list of beneficiaries is a process involving 473 elected officials, nearly all of them belonging to the Awami League.

Videos, unverified by Al Jazeera, are viral on Bangladeshi social media, purportedly showing ruling party officials threatening the voters.

Rumeen Farhana, the BNP’s international affairs secretary, told Al Jazeera that participating in an election, knowing it will be rigged, was “suicidal and a betrayal to the thousands who were hurt, detained, tortured, or killed for democracy and free speech”.

“People of this country will remember this election as the most absurd and illegitimate one in its history,” she said.

‘Strategy of the autocrats’
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in the United States, said the BNP boycott does the Awami League a “big favour by making it harder for Western countries to conclude that the election is fraudulent”.

“If the Awami League wins 95 percent of the vote, one can’t accuse the party of stealing votes because it will essentially be running against itself,” Kugelman told Al Jazeera.

He said the pattern of events leading to the BNP’s decision to boycott should be of concern to the West.

“Arrests, jailings, a broader crackdown on dissent, and especially the Awami League’s refusal to release top BNP leaders from jail as the election drew closer – all of this will shape the thinking of Washington and other capitals post-election,” he said.

Mohammad A Arafat, Awami League candidate from capital Dhaka, said he was “baffled by the notion that the winner of this election will not get legitimacy from the Western countries”.

“We did whatever we could. We strengthened our Election Commission and created a level playing field for all political parties. If BNP didn’t want to join, it’s their choice. Many parties have taken part in the election,” he told Al Jazeera.

Ali Riaz, distinguished professor of politics and government at the Illinois State University in the US, thinks the BNP’s absence from the vote was always the most preferred option for the Awami League.

“Forcing the main opposition out of the election process is a strategy autocrats around the world tend to prefer,” he told Al Jazeera.

Riaz said the upcoming vote on Sunday does not meet the “basic standard of an election”.

“The entire exercise looks like a stage-managed show to provide a veneer of legal legitimacy which is otherwise just dividing the parliamentary seats among allies,” he said. “I don’t think the winner will gain legitimacy from the Western countries.”

Kugelman, however, said he did not expect the Western capitals to cut ties with Dhaka.

“That would be rash, not to mention imprudent, especially given the close commercial ties they have with Bangladesh and the perceived strategic importance of Bangladesh in the context of the power competition in the Indo-Pacific,” he said.

“But I do think if Washington and other Western capitals conclude the election isn’t credible – and it’s hard to assess it as credible when the main opposition party sits it out – there is a chance that they could review future relations with Dhaka, with downgrading of ties a possibility.”
Bangladesh election raises fears of descent into one-party rule (Financial Times)
Financial Times [1/3/2024 11:36 PM, Benjamin Parkin and John Reed, 1.9M, Neutral]
As Bangladesh prepares for an election on Sunday, Minarul Islam, 37, is already resigned to the outcome.

“If there was competition then I’d have a choice,” he said on a busy street in Dhaka, the capital. “But there isn’t, so I have to vote for the Awami League”, the ruling party of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is seeking a historic fifth term in power.

The prime minister has embarked on a crackdown against her political rivals ahead of the polls, which critics say has left the South Asian democracy on the brink of sliding into de facto one-party rule.

The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist party said police had arrested as many as 20,000 members and supporters in recent months. It is boycotting the January 7 vote, which it argues the Awami League is manipulating to prevent any serious challenge.

“This is the most consequential election Bangladesh is going to have . . . despite the fact that there isn’t an opposition,” said Ali Riaz, a politics professor at Illinois State University. Bangladesh risks “turning into a country somewhat akin to Cambodia,” he added. “There will be no opposition left. Those who can be there will toe the official line.”

The pre-poll repression in Bangladesh, which plays a crucial role in global supply chains as the world’s second-largest garments exporter, has alarmed observers.

Sheikh Hasina has enjoyed strong relations with powers including China, India and Russia, as well as the US, a major clothing buyer. But Washington has in recent months introduced visa curbs in an attempt to sway officials to maintain the polls’ fairness.

Observers call this pressure part of Washington’s broader strategy to stave off creeping authoritarianism in the region and counter the influence of Beijing, in whose Belt and Road infrastructure project Sheikh Hasina’s government has been an important participant.

Around Dhaka, portraits of Sheikh Hasina and other Awami League candidates peer down from ubiquitous black-and-white campaign posters. Scattered among them are the images of little-known rivals who have appeared in the BNP’s place.

Analysts said, however, that many of these candidates appeared to be running with the ruling party’s tacit approval, in what they called a strategy of allowing limited opposition.

“By its very definition, an election means an act of choice,” said Badiul Alam Majumdar, a civil society activist. “There must be an even playing field for the alternatives.” But in Bangladesh, “the outcome is pre-determined”. “This doesn’t meet the criteria of an election,” he said.

Bangladesh has transformed from one of the world’s poorest countries into an important export hub thanks to rapid growth in the garments industry, with gross domestic product a head surpassing that of neighbouring India. Clothing exports grew to a record $47bn in 2023.

But Sheikh Hasina, who was prime minister between 1996 and 2001 before returning to power in 2009, has at the same time embarked on an escalating campaign against her rivals, they said.

Her previous re-elections in 2014 and 2018 were dogged by opposition boycotts and accusations of ballot stuffing, charges officials have denied.

This time, anti-incumbency sentiment has intensified in the country of 170mn as the economy grinds through a painful crunch, observers said. Since last year, Bangladesh has struggled with high inflation, fuel shortages and dwindling foreign reserves, forcing Sheikh Hasina’s government to seek a multibillion-dollar IMF loan. Some economists have warned that the economic straits could spiral into a deeper balance of payments crisis of the kind suffered by Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Popular frustration came to a head with a wave of recent demonstrations by opposition political groups and garment workers unhappy with low wages. Several people were killed in ensuing clashes with police, who detained thousands of BNP allies on accusations ranging from arson to vandalism. Security forces have been deployed across the country ahead of the polls.

The BNP condemned the roundups as an attempt to dismantle the party. “They’re intimidating opposition parties using the court, police forces and state machinery,” said AKM Wahiduzzaman, a BNP leader, who said the party “won’t recognise their government as a valid government”.

Mohammad Arafat, an Awami League MP, disputed the BNP’s allegations. “There’s no crackdown on people participating in the electoral process,” he said. “It’s only on the people in the BNP . . . who are indulging in violence.”

Sheikh Hasina’s party “has cut down poverty”, he added. “People see a huge radical change all over the country . . . it’s actually helping the party to get more support.”

The domestic tension has spilled into international affairs as rival countries jockey for a foothold in Bangladesh.

The US, where many elite Bangladeshis have close ties, introduced visa restrictions against officials found to be “responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process”.

US pressure provoked a fiery response from Sheikh Hasina, who has accused Washington of seeking to spur regime change.

Russian foreign affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova last year accused the US of “gross interference” in Bangladesh’s affairs, while China’s President Xi Jinping said in August that Beijing would support Bangladesh “in opposing external interference”.

Avinash Paliwal, a political scientist at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, said even if the election were a “foregone conclusion”, Sheikh Hasina would face mounting challenges in the coming months.

“I don’t see the elections as the end game,” he said. “Even if she’s able to contain the political fallout . . . there’s the economic story that’s still beginning to unfold.”
Bangladesh Shows the Limits of Biden’s ‘Democracy Promotion’ (Wall Street Journal – opinion)
Wall Street Journal [1/3/2024 6:32 PM, Sadanand Dhume, 810K, Neutral]
Bangladeshi voters head to the polls on Sunday for an election in which the result is all but preordained. Thanks to an opposition party boycott, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the ruling Awami League is poised to win a fourth consecutive term as leader of the Muslim-majority nation of 170 million people. A Hasina victory will also mark a defeat for President Biden, who has made Bangladesh a centerpiece of his effort to place democracy at the heart of U.S. foreign policy.

The 76-year-old Ms. Hasina, who has held power longer than any currently serving elected female leader worldwide, presents a striking paradox. She has curbed radical Islam, ensured civilian supremacy over the army, and led her country out of extreme poverty—achievements not many developing countries’ leaders can claim. At the same time, Ms. Hasina’s take-no-prisoners approach to politics fits “Game of Thrones” better than a parliamentary democracy. Those who refuse to bend the knee risk legal harassment or even violence.

As part of Mr. Biden’s bid to contrast his administration with Donald Trump’s, the White House has sought to punish Ms. Hasina’s government for human-rights abuses and for cowing opposition parties with mass arrests. But Ms. Hasina has thumbed her nose at these efforts, refusing to make more space for the opposition or civil society groups.

In the runup to the elections, the government has arrested about 10,000 opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party workers and supporters. “This is absolute brute force,” says Avinash Paliwal, an expert on South Asian geopolitics at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, in a phone interview. “There isn’t even a semblance of free and fair elections.”

The U.S. failure in Bangladesh stands out because the country was in theory an ideal testing ground for Mr. Biden’s values-centric foreign policy. The world’s eighth most populous nation is arguably big enough to matter, but at the same time not vital enough for Washington to need to place strategic and economic interests above democracy promotion.

Though the country has slipped toward one-party rule under Ms. Hasina, it has deeper democratic roots than many other developing nations. As part of British India until 1947, Bangladesh had some familiarity with elections as well as with liberal institutions such as an independent judiciary and free press. Many leading Bangladeshi journalists and intellectuals were educated in the West. Until 2006 the country boasted an opposition party, the BNP, vigorous enough to alternate power with the Awami League.

Moreover, the Bangladeshi economy’s reliance on garment exports to the U.S. and the European Union—$32 billion in 2022—gave Washington a measure of leverage.

But the White House was either too tentative to use that leverage or overconfident that it could shame Ms. Hasina into better behavior. Mr. Biden pointedly excluded Bangladesh from the U.S.’s two high-profile Summits for Democracy, while inviting several countries with arguably worse records. In 2021 the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Batallion, an anticrime and antiterrorism unit, for serious human-rights abuses. Last year the U.S. ambassador to Dhaka made his concerns about Bangladeshi elections public, and the State Department imposed visa restrictions on people it identified as “responsible for, or complicit in, undermining” the Bangladeshi election.

The White House should have known that harsh words and half-measures would have scant effect on Bangladesh. If anything, they played into the Awami League’s foundational story—as the plucky party that in 1971 led the country to independence from Pakistan, despite Islamabad’s U.S. backing. Ms. Hasina has skillfully countered American pressure by building an unlikely coalition of backers—Russia, China, and, most important, India, where she’s seen as a bulwark of stability in a volatile country.

Any serious effort to nudge Bangladesh toward greater liberalism would have entailed getting New Delhi on board from the get-go. Instead, the Biden administration alienated a broad swath of Indian opinion makers, who view American pressure on Bangladesh as dangerously naive and would rather the U.S. worked more closely with New Delhi to curb Chinese influence in the country.

From the Indian perspective, whatever Ms. Hasina’s shortcomings, the alternative is much worse. The last time the BNP was in power it was quiescent in attacks on Bangladesh’s Hindu minority and gave sanctuary to separatist and terrorist groups that targeted India. The BNP has long allied with the Islamist group Jamaat-e-Islami, which was responsible for unspeakable atrocities against civilians during Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence. Indians aren’t willing to take a chance on another BNP government.

Unable to convince India that liberal democracy in Bangladesh is worth saving, the White House instead relied on finger wagging at Ms. Hasina. That it now has little to show is a result typical of a U.S. administration whose reach has often been greater than its grasp. And it shows how, in a complex world, it’s much easier to talk about democracy than it is to promote it successfully.
Big Fashion Still Hasn’t Figured Out How to Pay a Living Wage (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [1/3/2024 11:00 PM, Jon Emont, 810K, Neutral]
A decade ago, global fashion companies set out to raise the pay of workers who make the clothes they sell to a living wage. It hasn’t happened.

In Bangladesh, the nearly 600,000 people making clothes for Swedish giant H&M—one of the biggest retailers in this space to start talking about paying living wages—earned an average of $119 a month in the first half of 2023, excluding overtime, the latest available data shows. That is well below the $194 living-wage figure for the suburbs of Dhaka, the capital, where clothing factories are clustered, according to the Global Living Wage Coalition, a research and advocacy group whose benchmarks are widely used in the industry.

At those income levels, workers say they have no savings. Often, they borrow from relatives to cover medical expenses or meet unforeseen emergencies. Some months, they even buy food on credit. Frustration over low wages boiled over in October when workers in Bangladesh set factories ablaze and smashed machines in protest.

Western fashion companies say they want wages to rise, but can’t wave a wand and make it happen. They generally don’t own the factories where their products are made and don’t determine pay for workers. They say they don’t want to go down the road of imposing specific wage levels on supplier factories.

Instead, they have tried other solutions. H&M, for instance, brought Swedish study circles to Bangladesh to train workers in negotiation, experimented with model factories and pushed for more transparent pay structures for workers.

Advocates for higher wages say it was clear from the start these methods wouldn’t move the needle. What will work, they say, is setting a higher wage level supplier factories must meet and a clear schedule for phasing in those higher wages.

“It’s entirely feasible to do this, it will just cost more money,” said Scott Nova, executive director of the Worker Rights Consortium, a labor-monitoring group based in Washington, D.C. For the companies, “this has never been about raising wages, this has always been about kicking the can down the road on an issue that carries a lot of reputational risk.”

H&M said it agrees wages are too low in many sourcing markets, but that setting wage levels for suppliers is a “shortsighted tactic that undermines the role of workers, unions, employers’ organizations and governments.” They, and others like Zara-owner Inditex, stress the importance of workers negotiating higher pay for themselves via collective-bargaining agreements, where labor unions hammer out higher wages with employers.

But in many of the places Western brands buy from, such as China, Vietnam and Bangladesh, independent unions are either banned or repressed. A review of Inditex disclosures shows just 3% of its supplier factories in Asia have collective-bargaining agreements.

A spokesperson for Inditex says it promotes collective bargaining and worker participation as the most efficient mechanism to facilitate living wages, and declined to comment on why only a small share of its factories in Asia have collective-bargaining agreements.

Part of the problem is low wages are core to fast fashion. It is no coincidence that Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest exporter of clothes, is also the place where workers who make clothes earn among the lowest wages of industrial workers anywhere. To sell shorts and shirts cheaply—and increasingly, compete with so-called ultrafast fashion brands like China-founded Shein, known for their rock-bottom prices—clothing giants pressure their suppliers to keep costs down.

Insisting on higher wages would mean paying more for the clothes and potentially putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage if other companies aren’t making similar moves.

Garment-worker pay has gone up in certain manufacturing powerhouses such as Vietnam and China where competition to recruit factory labor is fierce. But in some of the world’s largest and most populous clothing-export hubs like Indonesia, India and Bangladesh, it remains very low.

After dayslong protests last year, Bangladesh increased the monthly minimum wage to around $113—more than 55% higher than it was, but half of what workers were demanding. The U.S. government in November called on Bangladesh to revisit the minimum-wage decision.

German shoemaker Puma said in its 2022 annual report that its factories in Pakistan and Bangladesh—accounting for roughly an eighth of its total products—don’t pay a living wage. Even California-based Patagonia, known for its progressive ethos, says that of the 29 factories it bought clothing from, only 10 paid a living wage in 2022.

Puma said it is important to approach wage matters as a collective effort “as it is not a challenge a single brand can address alone.” A Patagonia official said it still has more work to do, but that the company remained committed to supporting its partners around the world toward living wages.

In 2013, H&M took a big leap and committed to push for a living wage for workers. “A larger share of the value should end up in the pockets of the workers, and the process is far too slow,” Helena Helmersson, H&M’s chief executive, said in 2013. She was H&M’s global head of sustainability at the time.

Among the steps it took was a pilot project to promote social dialogue, according to emails H&M sent to worker advocates that were seen by The Wall Street Journal. Bangladeshi workers were trained in what H&M called a mix of Swedish study circles and Japanese improvement circles to impart negotiation skills.

The Swedish labor movement has long used study circles to teach fellow workers about organizing. Armed with similar training, H&M said Bangladeshi workers could form democratically elected committees that would be free to form trade unions that could push up wages.

Today, more than 90% of the factories H&M sources from in Bangladesh have elected worker representatives. Worker committees don’t negotiate pay, however, and few of them have turned into unions. Only a fifth of H&M’s supplier factories in Bangladesh—a country where labor organizing is repressed—have trade unions.

An H&M spokesman acknowledged that there was a declining unionization trend in the countries the company sources from and said that was worrying “given the fact it has been outlined as one key factor in improving wages.”

In addition to its efforts to promote worker voices, H&M also began gathering and publishing data on worker wages, and pushed for workplace management systems at factories to improve pay fairness and transparency.

The overall effect on wages has been minimal. An academic paper published in the Journal of Accounting Research in 2023 found that factories subject to H&M’s interventions saw wage increases after three years that were 5% higher than at factories where these efforts weren’t made.

An H&M spokesman said “this data shows the impact of one brands’ efforts while there are other brands sharing factories with us, hence the importance of collaboration to achieve systematic and sustainable change.”

Greg Distelhorst, an associate professor at the University of Toronto who co-wrote the paper, said the size of the gain was “modest, not revolutionary.”

“I think it’s a good thing that H&M implemented these wage programs, and I would be pleased if more companies followed their lead,” he said in an email. “At the same time, I think we should have realistic expectations for what such programs can accomplish.”
‘Himalayan Declaration’ Lays Bare Deep Divide Among Sri Lankan Tamil Groups (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/3/2024 8:19 AM, Mark S. Cogan, 201K, Neutral]
Almost 15 years after the Sri Lankan civil war ended, there appears no end to the political divisions, not only between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority but also among Tamil diaspora groups that have long demanded both justice and accountability for what many claim are serious war crimes committed by the Sri Lankan government.

The Joint Himalayan Declaration, the output of a dialogue between a Buddhist delegation and the Global Tamil Forum (GTF), the once-powerful Tamil umbrella organization that was blacklisted by the Sri Lankan government for allegedly funding terrorist activities, is the latest development to stir tension among the Tamil population.

Presented to Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who promised to consider many of the measures outlined in the document, the Declaration is simple and covers six thematic areas: 1) promoting a pluralist society; 2) overcoming the economic crisis; 3) drafting a new constitution that guarantees individual and collective rights; 4) acceptance of religious and ethnic groups; 5) working toward reconciliation; and 6) compliance with bilateral and multilateral treaties.

However, the issues are highly controversial. The main areas of controversy are its lack of inclusion and what several groups have called a political maneuver that was “motivated to deceive Tamil people and the international community.”

The GTF has been accused of ignoring much of the Tamil community in seeking dialogue, which sparked as many as 70 civil society organizations to take to the streets in Sri Lanka’s Tamil-dominated Northeast, arguing that the Declaration was an “attempt to sustain the politics of tyranny.”

Looking closely at some of the major issues of contention, several of the Himalayan Declaration’s points leave plenty to be desired and much room for interpretation. First, a pluralist society can only be achieved in combination with several other factors, including not only a constitution that promotes equality among ethnicities, but also an electoral system that disrupts and restores balanced representation in Parliament. Currently Sinhalese political parties dominate in what is deemed an “ethnocracy,” where majoritarian rule is advanced and ethnonationalism drives political agendas.

Political analyst Neil DeVotta famously called Sri Lanka’s system a “control democracy,” where the majority group avoids compromises with other ethnicities and deliberately guards and controls the means of power, creating structural inequalities that are nearly impossible to overcome. Creating a truly equitable system will require compromise, but ethnonationalists will be hard-pressed to relinquish their advantages.

Reconciliation is also highly problematic, considering the island nation’s past two attempts. The Lessons Learned and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC), lacked sufficient independence and failed to address the volume of violations of human rights that the United Nations had called for. When Sri Lanka sponsored U.N. Human Rights Council Resolution 30/1 after considerable international pressure, it called for a number of reconciliation mechanisms, including a hybrid court system to try perpetrators of human rights violations and the Constitutional Task Force on Reconciliation Mechanisms (CTF), but the eventual output of the CTF went largely nowhere.

A statement released by six major diaspora groups said: “Knowing Ranil Wickremasinghe’s past of manipulating matters to his advantage, GTF’s meeting will provide [him] an opportunity to hoodwink the international community to sweep Tamils’ outcries under the carpet in the guise of success in talking with Tamil diaspora organizations and to promote support for the proposed Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) model for the resolution internally.” The statement echoes the deep distrust between Tamil groups and the Sri Lankan government.

The timing of the Himalayan Declaration could not have been worse. It came amid the Sri Lankan government’s continuing crackdown on Tamils mourning their kin who were killed in the civil war. Tamils, including those in the diaspora, were marking Maaveerar Naal (Great Heroes Day or Martyrs’ Day) to honor the sacrifice of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) “martyrs.” The LTTE’s armed struggle to create an independent Tamil state was crushed by the Sri Lankan armed forces operating under the guise of anti-terrorism. This year, the Sri Lankan government arrested ten Tamils, including an 18-year-old boy, under the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act for participating in Maaveerar Naal celebrations in the Tamil areas.

Repeating patterns that lead to distrust between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil groups have to be dismantled in favor of mechanisms and dialogue that are far more inclusive. Selective representation leads to greater fragmentation among Tamil diaspora groups, who are mostly united in seeking justice for the genocide committed by the Sinhalese state, but are divided on the tactics and means by which to accomplish these aims.

In this spirit, the Himalayan Declaration simply fueled distrust and gave legitimacy to suspicions about Wickremesinghe’s true motives.
Central Asia
‘Go Away, Don’t Beg!’: Kazakh President Has Message For Predecessor, Makes Claims About Origins Of ‘Bloody January’ (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/3/2024 8:17 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has given a lengthy interview in which he discusses what he sees as the origins of the "Bloody January" protests of 2022 as well as the threat of dual power systems.

Speaking to the state-run Egemen Qazaqstan newspaper, which published the interview on January 3, Toqaev said the protests that began in the southwestern town Zhanaozen on January 2, 2022, following a sharp rise in fuel prices and which quickly spread to other cities, including Almaty, were instigated by an unidentified "rogue group."

Toqaev’s shoot-to-kill order to quell the unrest led to the deaths of more than 230 protesters, and the Kazakh president has been criticized for not living up to his promise to the public to answer questions about the incident.

The Kazakh authorities have prosecuted several high-ranking officials on charges that they attempted to seize power during the protests, with some removed from office or sentenced to prison, and others acquitted.

Many were seen to be allies of Toqaev’s predecessor, long-serving Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbaev.

When asked what caused the unrest, Toqaev initially cited "socio-economic problems accumulated over the years," which had led to stagnation and undermined faith in the government.

However, Toqaev then suggested that "some influential people" did not like the changes to the country’s political scene after he was appointed as acting president by Nazarbaev in 2019 and later that year elected as president.

Toqaev said the unknown people perceived the change "as a threat" to the power structure after decades of rule by Nazarbaev, and then "decided to turn back the face of reform and destroy everything in order to return to the old situation that was convenient for them."

"This group of high-ranking officials had a huge influence on the power structures and the criminal world," Toqaev alleged. "That’s why they decided to seize power by force."

Toqaev, citing investigations by the Prosecutor-General’s Office, said the unidentified group began "preparations" about six months before the nationwide demonstrations in January 2022, when the government made what he called "an ill-conceived, illegal decision to sharply increase the price of liquefied gas."

From there, Toqaev alleged, "extremists, criminal groups, and religious extremists" worked together to stage a coup. When the protests broke out in January 2022, Toqaev claimed that 20,000 "terrorists" had entered the country.

Experts have widely dismissed suggestions of foreign involvement in the mass protests.

Aside from about 10 members of the fundamentalist Islamic group Yakyn Inkar -- which is considered a banned extremist group in Kazakhstan -- who were arrested in connection with the protests, no religious groups have been singled out for alleged involvement in the protests.

The goal of the alleged coup plotters, Toqaev said, was to set up a dual power structure that would compete with the government.

"I openly told Nazarbaev that the political arrogance of his close associates almost destroyed the country," Toqaev said, without expounding on who the associates might be.

Toqaev had not previously mentioned speaking with Nazarbaev about the mass protests.

Toqaev also suggested that Kazakhstan, which has come under criticism for its imprisonment of journalists and civil and political activists, does not have any political prisoners.

When asked about political prisoners, Toqaev said only that "our legislation does not contain a single decree, a single law, a single regulatory document that provides a basis for prosecuting citizens for their political views."

For there to be political persecution, according to Toqaev, there would need to be "censorship, special laws, and punitive bodies" in place.

Toqaev also appeared to subtly criticize Nazarbaev, who became head of Soviet Kazakhstan in 1990 and became Kazakhstan’s first president after the country became independent in 1991.

Nazarbaev served as president until he resigned in 2019, although he held the title of "Leader of the Nation" from 2010 to 2020 and also served as chairman of the Security Council from 1991 to 2022. Nazarbaev has since been stripped of those roles and titles.

While discussing Nazarbaev, Toqaev said that "everyone knows his contribution to the formation of an independent state of Kazakhstan. He is a person who deserves a fair historical evaluation."

But the current Kazakh president also said that "there should be no senior or junior president in the country."

"Go away, don’t beg!" Toqaev said. "Citizens who will be in charge of the country in the future should learn from this situation and stay away from such things and think only about the interests of the state and the prosperity of society."
Kazakhstan: Oil workers persist with protest, government ignores (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/3/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Neutral]
While Kazakhstan was ringing in the New Year, protesting workers at the West Oil Software, a company based in the restive west, continued in their so-far unsuccessful attempts to get the ear of top officials.

The workers in the Mangystau region have for weeks been holding pickets in a push for better working conditions.

“[Late last month], they submitted another appeal to the authorities, stating that they had sent their representatives to [the capital] Astana, but the authorities refused to meet with them," Radio Azattyk, the Kazakh service of RFE/RL, reported on January 1.

Just a few days earlier, several workers, mostly heavy equipment drivers, announced that they were heading to Astana to meet with officials to vent their frustration in person. But in a widely circulated video from December 30, a group of workers who reached the capital revealed that they were unable to secure a meeting with members of the Majilis, the lower house of parliament.

“Where is the ‘listening state’?... Until a fair decision is made, we won’t end the strike,” they were quoted as saying by Azattyk, deploying a phrase coined by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in an effort to be taken seriously as a political reformer.

Around 500 workers, who began their strike on December 11, are demanding to be employed in subsidiaries of state oil and gas company KazMunaiGas, or KMG, which they believe would secure them higher salaries. They claim that while the majority of employees earn no more than $1,000, West Oil Software incorrectly claims figures twice as high as that.

West Oil Software has shown little inclination to deescalate. It dismissed 26 protesting workers within days of the strike commencing. It was supported in that move by a court ruling declaring the planned dismissals to be legal.

KMG argues that the demand from workers to be reintegrated into its ranks is unattainable since this would infringe upon the rights of other unemployed individuals in the region who have applied and are awaiting potential employment by KMG.

The Mangystau region is home to numerous oil and gas companies and has witnessed numerous worker strikes, primarily based around pay rise demands, over the years. While employers have at times caved to demands and initiated negotiations and sought some consensus, this time it looks like there are no signs that West Oil Software intends to meet the protesters halfway.
Turkmenistan: We are the champions (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/3/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Celebrated Turkmen movie director Yazgeldy Seyidov died in Moscow on December 25 at the age of 91.

Among his better-known works was the 1983 film The Education of a Man (Muzhskoe Vospitanie). (An English subtitled copy can be viewed here).

The plot is very much in the mold of Central Asian New Wave cinema of that vintage: It tells the story of a young boy plucked from coddled city living and sent to his grandfather and emotionally distant father in the tough Turkmen countryside to help tend to the sheep.

The feeble, soft child, Chaman, is much given to weeping over the mistreatment of animals — a detail that may make viewing of the film unsuitable for anybody troubled by that kind of thing. The cruelty, his grandfather explains, is necessary to keep the beasts safe, while death is an inescapable aspect of existence.

Not to spoil the ending, but suffice it to say that lessons are learned. The son eventually comes to understand the value of taking responsibility and becomes his own man.

In a curiously symbolic echo, President Serdar Berdymukhamedov on December 25 unveiled his first book. “Youth — The Pillar of the Nation” is said to highlight the successes of Turkmen youth and was released to coincide with a roundtable devoted to achievements attained in a year formally designated as “Happy Youth with Serdar Arkadag.”

This may need some unpacking.

Arkadag is an honorific title, signifying protector and patron of the people, that has habitually been reserved for Berdymukhamedov’s father, Gurbanguly, the former president. Berdymukhamedov senior seemed poised to slowly fade into the background when he stepped down as president in 2022, but early last year, he decided to reverse course. In his bespoke new capacity as National Leader, the elder Berdymukhamedov now acts as de facto co-head of state. The fact his son is now acclaimed by the hand-me-down title Serdar Arkadag, which is dutifully chanted by crowds of citizens marshaled into attending major public events, tells its own story. (Berdymukhamedov the elder, by the way, has at least 70 books to his name).

Each new year in Turkmenistan comes with its own bespoke motto. Last year, it was the aforementioned “Happy Youth with Serdar Arkadag.” The choice for 2024 is a tribute to the past rather than the future: “Magtymguly Pyragy: A Fount of Reason.” At first glance, this looks like an appeal to the wisdom of the Turkmen national poet and philosopher, who is believed to have been born in 1724. Such modesty is not in the Berdymukhamedov vein, however. The motto was chosen as it is the name of a poem forged from what state media describes as the “brilliant talent and wisdom of the Hero-Arkadag.” That is the older Berdymukhamedov, to be clear.

It will not be long, however, before the cruel gravitational pull of reality does its work on Berdymukhamedov senior’s soaring vanity.

Last year, Turkmenistan inaugurated its newest city, inevitably called Arkadag. This giant toytown was immediately bestowed with the trimmings of a real city: a TV station, a newspaper, and even a soccer club — all called Arkadag.

Arkadag the soccer team, which was put together through the raiding of the best talent from all its peers, in December earned international attention by securing the premier league title on its first attempt by winning 20 matches on the trot. Arkadag went one better on December 24 by bagging the Turkmenistan Football Cup by handily defeating Ahal 3-0.

In a message of self-congratulation, Berdymukhamedov senior predicted that Arkadag would now surely go on to achieve success in the Asian Football Confederation Champions League, known as ACL, and even in FIFA club world cup, a format for which no Central Asian team has ever managed to qualify. Doing this will “increase the international sporting prestige of the country,” he said.

For now, though, Arkadag’s domestic success draws mainly derision. An Al Jazeera article described the club romping to triumph in a “bizarre football season.” When quizzed what prospects he saw for the team, Alisher Nikimbaev, a former manager for Uzbekistan’s national team, argued that “in the long term, it won’t be successful as the dominance of Arkadag will bring down the level of competition in Turkmenistan.”

Formal business was limited over the holiday season, as is customary, but President Berdymukhamedov did find time on December 26 to travel to St. Petersburg to attend the annual informal Commonwealth of Independent States summit.

The intensity of attention that Russia lavishes on Turkmenistan these days is acquiring a somewhat peculiar flavor. Not a month passes without Moscow firing off one or more statements expressing undying commitment to inextinguishable amity.

On December 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin conveyed New Year greetings to Ashgabat in which he spoke of the “deepening strategic partnership” between Russia and Turkmenistan and emphasized the importance of operating collectively on international matters in ways that benefit both nations. He reserved special praise for Berdymukhamedov senior’s role in developing those relations.

This note was followed by another one, similar in content and spirit, from Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on January 2.

One area of cooperation that looks to be of particular interest is what the two governments are doing to “counter the spread of disinformation and fake news.” A newspeak-tinted statement on mutual interest in advancing this agenda was released by Russia’s Foreign Ministry on December 25.

As barely needs noting, the authoritarian regimes of Russia and Turkmenistan share a profound hostility for transparency and free media. So when Moscow pledges its support to Ashgabat in combating fake news, this can only mean it intends to ensure that Turkmen citizens are ensured further inoculation from reality by means of digital censorship.

This is a priority for the Turkmen government. On December 28, Turkmen deputy Foreign Minister Myahri Byashimova met with deputy Chinese Education Minister Sun Yao to discuss bolstering collaboration in education, with a particular focus on cybersecurity.

On matters of defense, Ashgabat is open to multiple suitors.

On December 27, Berdymukhamedov the elder met in Ashgabat with the chief executive of Turkish defense company Baykar, maker of the Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicle, and a representative of another Turkish military transportation manufacturer, BMC. The visiting pair reportedly made the case to Berdymukhamedov that buying more of their products — Turkmenistan already has several Baykar-made military drones in its possession — would be “a worthy contribution to further strengthening partnership relations.”
Uzbekistan: Tax break on gas allowed to expire, pushing up prices (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/3/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
The price of Uzbekistan’s most sought-after automobile gasoline, AI-80, has significantly risen since January 1 after the temporary suspension of excises on the fuel was allowed to expire.

Prices at private gas stations currently stand at around 8,800 sums ($0.71) per liter.

The zero-excise tax rate on local and imported AI-80 was introduced in December 2022 amid restrictions on the operations of gas stations selling methane, which is periodically in short supply in peak consumption periods. Many motorists in Uzbekistan run their cars on both methane and gasoline, and they typically base which fuel they use on the basis of need, price availability.

The policy of limiting the working hours of methane stations has been in place since 2018 and is intended to alleviate shortages caused by demand for the same gas for heating in homes, schools, hospitals, and other public facilities.

The country faced a particularly acute natural gas shortage as a result of abnormally cold weather last winter. Heating issues were reported across all the regions.

Initially, the zero-excise tax rate was to remain in place only for a few months, but in March the president extended the tax break through to the end of the year to “ensure price stability.” Uzbekneftegaz, or UNG, a state-owned energy company, began importing AI-80 from Russia to plug the market deficit.

The sharp increase in the cost of AI-80, which is commonly known as “the people’s gasoline” since it is cheapest and lowest-grade variety, in the middle of winter has predictably caused public discontent.

But the government says that foregoing the fuel excise tax has been causing it undue revenue losses. The Energy Ministry estimates the shortfalls at around 1.2 trillion sum (about $100 milliion).

“This exemption has brought more benefits to business owners than to ordinary people,” the ministry was reported as stating by news outlet Gazeta.uz. The ministry noted that some privately owned gas stations have been making a profit by reselling UNG-produced gasoline at a mark-up.

The authorities have assured the public that reserves of gasoline, including AI-80, are sufficient to meet the demand and there will be no shortages of the type that have been regularly observed in recent years.

Energy officials estimate that the daily demand for gasoline surges from around 5,000 tons to 8,000 tons during colder period. The bulk of that overall total — around 7,500 tons — is accounted for by AI-80.

There is an environmental aspect to all this. As is it is lower-grade fuel, AI-80, poses greater risks than what is more typically sold in western Europe or the United States.

Late last month, Sherzod Habibullayev, the head of Uzbekistan’s meteorological service, Uzgidromet, named AI-80 as one of the primary causes of air pollution in Tashkent, especially in winters.

In 2020, UNG announced plans to discontinue the production of AI-80 which was supposed to happen after the modernization of existing oil refineries. It is unclear, however, what stage those efforts have reached.
Central Asia’s Water Crisis Is Already Here (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/3/2024 1:53 PM, Jahan Taganova, Anna Shabanova-Serdechna, and Niginakhon Saida, 201K, Neutral]
Over the course of 2023, Central Asia grappled with escalating challenges stemming from climate change, including disruptive weather patterns affecting long-standing agricultural practices and the melting of key glaciers impacting water resources. It was a particularly challenging year for the region.

For instance, in mid-summer 2023, Turkmenistan turned off fountains in the capital, citing a lack of water. In other parts of the country, locals consistently struggle with unsustainable fresh water supplies, live without fresh water for weeks, and are forced to buy water with their dwindling financial resources.

In June 2023, Kazakhstan declared a state of emergency in Aktau as Caspian Sea water levels dropped to a critically low level. When residents of Astana organized an impromptu rally in the city center in July, they chanted “Give us water!”

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have not been spared either. Residents of Bishkek staged small-scale rallies in the summer and the city government banned car washes, swimming pools, and bathhouses. In Uzbekistan, fresh water prices doubled in some regions.

The Central Asian water crisis, the product of climate change, inefficient water management, and growing water consumption, is not just a hypothetical problem anymore – it is affecting all parts of the region, and it is happening now. The past year underscored a pressing need for comprehensive and sustainable climate action, prompting an exploration of adaptive strategies and the fostering of collaborative efforts to mitigate far-reaching consequences on both ecosystems and local communities.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports Central Asia to be highly vulnerable to climate change given that the temperature in the region is rising faster than the global average. Between 1990 and 2020, the average annual temperature in some areas of Central Asia was at least 5 degrees Celsius warmer than it had been from 1960 to 1979, with summers becoming drier and winters characterized by more rain. Projected climate models consistently indicate a warming trend, with average annual temperatures predicted to increase by 3-5 degrees C by 2080.

As temperatures rise, livestock health is affected by heat stress, metabolic disorders, oxidative stress, and immune suppression, resulting in increased disease and mortality. For instance, in 2021, widespread droughts caused massive losses in livestock in western Kazakhstan, leading to at least 500 dead cattle in one village alone. Scientists predict that it will not be long until climate change leads to a further decrease in food availability across the entire region.

The agricultural sector makes significant contributions to Central Asian economies: 5.2 percent of GDP in Kazakhstan; 7.5 percent in Turkmenistan; 18.5 percent in Uzbekistan; 20.8 percent in Kyrgyzstan; and 23.3 percent in Tajikistan. In light of this, recent crop failures, caused by a heatwave and drought, will inevitably affect the region’s economies and its potential for growth and development.

A further climate-related strain on Central Asian economies is migration. A 2021 report from the World Bank estimated that the region could see as many as 5 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
Twitter
Afghanistan
UNAMA News
@UNAMAnews
[1/3/2024 8:29 AM, 300.5K followers, 54 retweets, 71 likes]
The continued arbitrary detention of #Afghanistan girls’ education advocates Ahmad Fahim Azimi & Sadiqullah Afghan & women’s rights activist Munizha Sediqi since October is worrying. UNAMA urges end to arbitrary arrests. Rights to family, lawyers, care, fair trial must be upheld.

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[1/3/2024 2:00 PM, 168K followers, 3 likes]
Last quarter, several multilateral institutions and international NGOs released statements arguing Taliban’s abuses against women & girls constitute crimes against humanity https://sigar.mil/interactive-reports/sigar-quarterly-report-2023-10-30/#reportDevelopments

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[1/3/2024 11:00 AM, 168K followers, 6 retweets, 14 likes]
(2/2) Report documented at least 800 human rights violations by Taliban against former govt officials & former #ANDSF, including at least 218 extrajudicial killings, in violation of international humanitarian law https://sigar.mil/interactive-reports/sigar-quarterly-report-2023-10-30/#reportDevelopments

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/3/2024 3:43 PM, 22.2K followers, 1 like]
The United States and the United Nations have confirmed a massive reduction in poppy cultivation in Afghanistan since the Taliban supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, banned the crop in April 2022.
Pakistan
Spokesperson Pakistan MoFA
@ForeignOfficePk
[1/4/2024 1:47 AM, 466.2K followers, 6 likes]
Foreign Minister @JalilJilani makes his opening remarks at the Envoys’ Conference being held in Islamabad from 4 to 6 January 2024. He underlined the importance of regular debate on Pakistan’s foreign policy and global and regional developments.

Spokesperson Pakistan MoFA
@ForeignOfficePk
[1/3/2024 12:24 PM, 466.2K followers, 43 retweets, 143 likes]
Foreign Minister @JalilJilani received Rwanda’s Chief of Defence Staff General MK MUBARAKH at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamabad. Discussed strengthening bilateral ties, capacity building and fostering increased collaboration in trade. The significant contribution of the Pakistani diaspora to Rwanda’s development was also emphasized during the meeting.

Spokesperson Pakistan MoFA
@ForeignOfficePk
[1/3/2024 10:38 AM, 466.2K followers, 38 retweets, 102 likes]
FM @JalilJilani received Mullah Shirin, Governor of Kandahar today. He reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to continued engagement & mutually beneficial ties with Afghanistan. The two sides agreed to continue high-level engagement and dialogue to further strengthen bilateral relations.

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[1/4/2024 1:45 AM, 8.3M followers, 298 retweets, 1K likes]
Why a complete strike was observed in the port city of Gwadar as well as Turbat, Panjgur, Pasni, Mand, Buleda, Awaran, Bela, Khuzdar, Kalat, Mastung, Noshki, Kharan, Barkhan and Kohlu but not in other parts of Pakistan? Baloch people supported BYC’s call.

Husain Haqqani
@husainhaqqani
[1/4/2024 12:27 AM, 459.4K followers, 22 retweets, 76 likes]
For those who think current election management in Pakistan is unusual, a page from history about how Ayub Khan ‘won’ the 1965 presidential poll. My column in @thenews_intl
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/3/2024 7:39 AM, 94.2M followers, 3K retweets, 9.1K likes]
Why do INDI Alliance members love trampling over people’s faith? In contrast, BJP prefers ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas.’ https://twitter.com/i/status/1742526155088122032

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/3/2024 7:38 AM, 94.2M followers, 2.4K retweets, 8.1K likes]
Except opposing Modi, do LDF and UDF have any agenda? The answer is no.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/3/2024 7:36 AM, 94.2M followers, 2.2K retweets, 6.6K likes]
UDF and LDF tried to create roadblocks in the passage of Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam. They also support archaic practices like Triple Talaq. Such parties can never work for the progress of women.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/3/2024 7:06 AM, 94.2M followers, 3.4K retweets, 13K likes]
It’s a delight to be back in Thrissur. The people’s warmth is exceptional, as always. It is clear that Kerala is fed up of UDF and LDF, and is looking to BJP with hope.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/3/2024 4:46 AM, 94.2M followers, 4.8K retweets, 18K likes]
Here is my interview with @IndiaToday, in which I talk about a wide range of issues including our governance agenda, the road ahead towards making India the world’s third largest economy, what a ‘Modi Guarantee’ means, global issues and a lot more.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/3/2024 11:29 PM, 3M followers, 525 retweets, 6.1K likes]
Happy to be back in Nepal for my first visit of 2024. Looking forward to the engagements over the next two days.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/3/2024 12:44 PM, 3M followers, 227 retweets, 1.6K likes]
Delighted to join my friend and colleague @PiyushGoyal ji today at Bharat Mandapam for the inauguration of #AtmanirbharBharatUtsav and #ODOP awards. #ODOP is a very unique and tangible expression of India’s diversity and its progress towards Atmanirbharata. Not only districts, but our Embassies and Consulates have also been at the forefront of promoting the Indian heritage and culture. Congratulations to all the awardees! The #AtmanirbharBharatUtsav provides another platform to showcase an India ready for the world. Do visit and experience the diversity and richness of Bharat.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/3/2024 12:40 PM, 3M followers, 348 retweets, 3.8K likes]
So glad to meet Chief Minister of Mizoram Shri @Lal_Duhoma ji today. We began Government service at the same time and trained together. Discussed how MEA and the State Government could collaborate more closely.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/3/2024 5:30 AM, 3M followers, 180 retweets, 1K likes]
A useful conversation with FM @DmytroKuleba of Ukraine today. Discussed advancing our bilateral cooperation in the year ahead. Exchanged views on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/3/2024 4:55 AM, 3M followers, 319 retweets, 1.5K likes]
Speaking at the inauguration ceremony of #AtmanirbharBharatUtsav & National ODOP Awards

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[1/4/2024 1:45 AM, 260.9K followers, 50 retweets, 158 likes]
India’s 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act — akin to a U.S. entry law whose coverage was expanded from Soviet Jews to persecuted religious minorities from elsewhere, including Christians — has languished due to non-implementation. Modi’s government says the required rules will finally be framed before the approaching national elections so that the law can take effect. But it must explain why it kept the law in limbo for more than four years, thereby prolonging the agony of the stateless refugees from neighboring Islamic countries who were supposed to secure citizenship under the act.
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[1/3/2024 11:05 AM, 634.3K followers, 39 retweets, 101 likes]
#Bangladesh’s merchandise export earnings reached a pinnacle for the year in December at nearly $5.31 billion, as per data released by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) on 2nd January. https://tbsnews.net/economy/export-earnings-drop-106-year-year-december-768286 #Export #RMGExport #MadeInBangladesh #ExportEarning

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/3/2024 4:28 AM, 634.3K followers, 77 retweets, 132 likes]
#AwamiLeague President Sheikh Hasina at the virtual rally in six districts Date: 3 January 2024 #Elections #Elections2024 #Bangladesh #Vote #AwamiLeague #Campaign #BangladeshElections #January7 #BDPolitics #SheikhHasina #VoteForBoat

Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP
@bdbnp78
[1/3/2024 4:01 AM, 45.7K followers, 18 retweets, 68 likes]
A Jubo Dal leader, who was incarcerated for 53 days, died while undergoing treatment at Bagerhat district hospital. The deceased leader Kamal Hossain, 43, was executive committee member of Khulna city unit of BNP’s youth wing Jubo Dal.

Sadanand Dhume
@dhume
[1/3/20249:51 PM, 170.4K followers, 2 retweets, 3 likes]
Joe Biden has made Bangladesh a centerpiece of his effort to place democracy at the heart of U.S. foreign policy. It hasn’t worked. [My take] https://wsj.com/articles/bangladesh-shows-the-limits-of-bidens-democracy-promotion-81afa9e5?st=fp66klpekojt5xz&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[1/4/2024 2:05 AM, 4.8K followers]
The Hasina administration’s behavior has raised many questions about the regime’s future. There is a looming threat of sanctions over #Bangladesh’s garment sector ahead of the upcoming elections on 7th January 2023. Western sanctions, likely to come after the elections, would pose a significant challenge to the country. Hasina Has Lost The Moral Authority To Rule, Both Within And Beyond Bangladesh by Taj Hashmi https://aequitasreview.org/hasina-has-lost-the-moral-authority-to-rule-both-within-and-beyond-bangladesh-by-taj-hashmi/

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/4/2024 11:02 AM, 203.4K followers, 32 retweets, 166 likes]
"If Washington and other Western capitals conclude the [BD] election isn’t credible – and it’s hard to assess it as credible when the main opposition party sits it out – there is a chance that they could review future relations with Dhaka, with downgrading of ties a possibility.”

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/4/2024 11:02 AM, 203.4K followers, 2 retweets, 19 likes]
“Arrests, jailings, a broader crackdown on dissent, and especially the Awami League’s refusal to release top BNP leaders from jail as the election drew closer–all of this will shape the thinking of Washington & other capitals post-election." Quoted here:

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/3/2024 11:30 PM, 256K followers, 9 retweets, 31 likes]
External Affairs Minister of India Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, arrived in Kathmandu today in connection with the 7th Meeting of Nepal-India Joint Commission. He was accorded a warm welcome by Hon Foreign Minister @NPSaudnc.

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/3/2024 11:30 PM, 256K followers, 10 retweets, 11 likes]
Foreign Secretary and other senior officials also welcomed EA Minister at TIA, Kathmandu.

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[1/3/2024 1:15 PM, 354.1K followers, 58 retweets, 263 likes]
That a future JVP/NPP Gov will NOT honour #SriLanka USD 12b ISB debt; first insinuated by their chief econ adviser Prof Anil J at @CeylonChamber now repeated clearly by their top economist Sunil Handunhetti goes to show these guys have absolutely no idea how to run a country.
Central Asia
Luca Anceschi
@anceschistan
[1/3/2024 3:53 AM, 6.5K followers, 6 retweets, 25 likes]
Two resources on #Russia-#CentralAsia relations to start the year. Intriguingly, both avoid pitfalls of sensational short-term analysis and correctly place newer developments w/in historical trends. These are much-needed views on a topic poorly understood as of late.

Luca Anceschi
@anceschistan
[1/3/2024 3:53 AM, 6.5K followers, 5 retweets, 8 likes]
Guests in latest @Majlis_Podcast of 2023, magisterially hosted by @BrucePannier, contextualise ‘backyard’ trope w/in wider trends in #CentralAsia foreign policymaking, arguing for a nuanced understanding of #Russia-CA ties. On @RFERL

Luca Anceschi
@anceschistan
[1/3/2024 3:53 AM, 6.5K followers, 4 retweets, 6 likes]
For @cepa, MF Öztarsu looks into #CentralAsia’s role as backdoor for #Russia’s goods at a time of sanctions, demonstrating that CA is willing to support Western companies that continue to trade w/ Russia. H/t @Navbahor: https://cepa.org/article/central-asia-a-lucrative-back-door-to-russia/

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[1/3/2024 10:50 PM, 28.7K followers, 4 retweets, 10 likes]
Oil strike persists in western #Kazakhstan - and twelve years on the same problems that fuelled violence in Zhanaozen (discontent over salaries and working conditions, a perception that the authorities don’t listen) also persist - @eurasianet reports https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-oil-workers-persist-with-protest-government-ignores

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[1/3/2024 10:44 PM, 28.7K followers, 4 likes]
#Kazakhstan marking the tragic anniversary of Bloody January two years on - a review with a timeline and pictures by @tengrinewskz https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/kak-kantar-izmenil-kazahstan-521803/

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/3/2024 3:42 PM, 22.2K followers]
Jan-Nov 2023 Tajikistan stats: Tajikistan’s trade with Kazakhstan reduced by 20%, with Uzbekistan 10.3%, Turkmenistan 13.5%, and by 21.7% with Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan is the largest partner in the region, with turnover exceeding $1 billion. Uzbekistan comes second, with $450+ million.Tajikistan’s trade with Turkmenistan exceeded $40 million Jan-Nov 2023, while it fell to $10 million with Kyrgyzstan. Overall foreign trade consisted $6.8 bln, most of it is with Russia. #2 is China, while Kazakhstan remains #3. https://amerikaovozi.com/a/7425456.html

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/3/2024 9:46 AM, 22.2K followers, 2 likes]
Turkmenistan: "In his bespoke new capacity as National Leader, the elder Berdymukhamedov now acts as de facto co-head of state. The fact his son is now acclaimed by the hand-me-down title Serdar Arkadag, which is dutifully chanted by crowds of citizens marshaled into attending major public events, tells its own story." @eurasianet https://eurasianet.org/turkmenistan-we-are-the-champions

{End of Report}
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