SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS

epubdos : Afghanistan

Prepared for the U.S. Department of State

Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs

By TechMIS
www.TechMIS.com

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TO:	SCA & Staff
DATE:	Wednesday, January 31, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan

China’s President Receives Afghan Ambassador; Taliban Seek Recognition From Russia, Iran (VOA)

VOA [1/30/2024 3:51 PM, Akmal Dawi, 761K, Positive]
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday received the credentials of ambassadors from several countries, including neighboring Afghanistan, in what amounts to the first official recognition of the interim Taliban government by a major nation.

Xi welcomed Bilal Karimi, the Taliban-appointed Afghan ambassador, in a formal ceremony at the Great Hall of the People, along with ambassadors from Cuba, Pakistan, Iran and 38 other countries.

"China has understood what the rest of the world has not," Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesperson, said Tuesday at an event on the social media platform X.

"We are not in a unipolar world," Mujahid said while calling on Russia, Iran and other countries to take similar steps and upgrade bilateral diplomatic relations with Kabul.

Xi told the new ambassadors that China is seeking deep friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation with their countries, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.

Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, said whether Beijing has officially recognized the Taliban regime is for Chinese officials to clarify.

"I have seen some comments from them to the contrary," Miller told VOA on Tuesday. For the United States, Miller said, the Taliban’s relationship with the international community depends on their actions.

"China may be getting ready to break ranks and take the final technical step either within the U.N. system or outside of it through a bilateral initiative," Omar Samad, a former Afghan ambassador, wrote to VOA.

Javid Ahmad, Afghan ambassador to the United Arab Emirates under the former Afghan government, called the Chinese move an act of recognition.

"The signal is unmistakable, as no head of state would accept ambassadorial credentials unless they recognize the government. In this instance, the Chinese leadership is treating the Taliban envoy in the same manner as other ambassadors, a clear indication of recognition," Ahmad told VOA.

While China’s recognition marks a significant step, it remains an isolated one. No other major nation has recognized the Taliban’s "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," and the United Nations has repeatedly denied their requests for representation at the world body.

The United States and European countries have imposed economic and political sanctions on Taliban leaders and entities, accusing them of grave human rights violations, particularly concerning women’s rights to education and work.

Since reclaiming power in August 2021, the Taliban have steadily established control over many Afghan diplomatic missions, primarily in neighboring countries. The group now oversees embassies in at least 14 countries, including Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Some countries, including Russia, China and Iran, have maintained their embassies in Kabul.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters in New York that Moscow had not recognized the Taliban regime because of political and human rights considerations.

"We, as the rest of the U.N. members, do not officially recognize the Taliban," Lavrov said through a translator.

Last month, the U.N. Security Council authorized the secretary-general to appoint a special envoy for Afghanistan to facilitate coordinated international engagement with de facto Taliban authorities.

Taliban officials have objected to the appointment of the new envoy, saying the U.N. should stop treating Afghanistan as an anomaly within the international community.

China Quietly Expanding Influence In Taliban-ruled Afghanistan (Agence France-Presse)

Agence France-Presse [1/30/2024 4:14 PM, Pascale Trouillaud and Abdullah Hasrat, 304K, Neutral]
While most of the world treats Afghanistan’s Taliban government as a pariah, China is growing diplomatic and economic links -- and Kabul is happy for the attention.

Top-level meetings between officials, new mineral deals, and the upgrading of transport routes between the two countries are regularly championed by Taliban government officials.

While Beijing has played down the formality of these growing links, it is steadily increasing investment and exposure -- a relationship that could benefit both parties, analysts and diplomats say.

"The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a challenging terrain, but the characteristic of the Chinese is to go where no one else goes, trying to gain advantages," said Valerie Niquet, an analyst with the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.

"The Chinese are extending a hand to the Afghans, who need all possible assistance."

In September China became the first country to appoint a new ambassador to Kabul, and on Tuesday the Taliban government’s envoy to Beijing -- along with dozens of other diplomats -- presented his credentials to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Last month China joined Russia in abstaining on a UN Security Council vote calling for the appointment of a special envoy to Afghanistan -- something strongly opposed by the Taliban authorities.

The expectations of the international community include allowing girls and women to be educated, letting them to work, introducing a more inclusive government, and greater protection for minorities.

But China’s approach -- exchanging ambassadors without official recognition -– allows Beijing to maintain relations while also not breaking ranks with the rest of the world.

"Fundamentally, China doesn’t care about women’s rights; if its interest is to get closer to the Taliban regime, it won’t impose conditions," Niquet told AFP.

In turn, Taliban authorities have said nothing about the alleged mistreatment and rights abuses suffered by Muslim Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang region bordering Afghanistan.

The prize in all this is access to Afghanistan’s wealth of untapped mineral resources -- as well as a market for Chinese goods.

"The vast natural resources of Afghanistan, such as copper, lithium, or rare earths, have significant economic potential for China," said Jalal Bazwan, assistant professor of political science at Kardan University in Kabul.

Immediately after his installation in December as Afghanistan’s ambassador to Beijing, Bilal Karimi held discussions with the Chinese state-owned company MCC on Mes Aynak, the world’s second-largest copper deposit, some 40 kilometres (25 miles) from the capital Kabul.

MCC obtained exploitation rights in 2008 -- worth some $3.5 billion -- but the project was paralysed by war and insecurity.

The discovery of Buddhist archaeological remains at the site further complicated development.

"These historical assets are a cultural treasure for Afghanistan, part of its identity," says Hamayoon Afghan, spokesman for the ministry of mines -- an about-face from the Taliban’s previous incarnation, which 23 years ago stunned the world by destroying the Bamiyan Buddhas, deeming them un-Islamic.

Thirsty for hydrocarbons, China is also interested in the potential of Afghan oil.

Since the renegotiation in January 2023 of an old contract in the northwestern Amu Basin, Sino-Afghan extraction has begun in 18 wells, says the mines ministry.

Afghan authorities have also announced plans by Chinese companies to invest half a billion dollars in solar energy in the country.

A 300-kilometre road under construction will connect Badakhshan to the Chinese border, according to Ashraf Haqshanas, spokesman for the ministry of public works.

The two countries share a border just 76 kilometres long, but this new link will significantly boost trade, currently a modest $1.5 billion per year.

Despite its largesse, the security of its investments remains crucial for China.

A deadly Islamic State group attack in December 2022 on a Kabul hotel housing Chinese nationals group shocked Beijing, which urged Taliban authorities to improve security.

During the Taliban’s first stint in power from 1996-2001, they hosted hundreds of Uyghur militants from China -- the United States detained 22 of them for years in Guantanamo Bay -- and Beijing is wary of any new threat from the group.

"In 2021, there were reports of Uyghur militants being forcefully evacuated from border regions near China-Afghanistan," said Bazwan.

"The Taliban have assured China that they will prevent Afghan soil from being used for terrorist attacks against its neighbours," he added, although neighbour Pakistan insists Kabul has not kept its promises on this.

As part of its rapprochement, Beijing is also exercising its "soft power" by delivering humanitarian aid -- in particular following recent deadly earthquakes.

In Kabul, there is even a modest "Chinatown" -- two eight-story buildings where cheap Chinese products are sold.

"Belt and Road" is written in red Chinese calligraphy at the top of the building, referring to the massive infrastructure project linking China to Central Asia and the rest of the world.

Afghanistan could also be integrated into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor -- the cornerstone of the project -- leading to the port of Gwadar, a strategic outlet for China on the Arabian Sea in Pakistan’s south.

"The strategic position of Afghanistan along the Belt and Road initiative makes it an attractive partner," said Bazwan.

Pakistan

In His Second Sentencing in Two Days, Imran Khan Gets 14 Years (New York Times)

New York Times [1/31/2024 3:40 AM, Salman Masood, 831K, Neutral]
Just a day after he was sentenced to a decade in prison, former Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan on Wednesday was ordered jailed for 14 years in a separate case, dealing him another heavy blow in his bitter feud with the country’s powerful military.

The new sentence, handed down eight days before a scheduled national election in which Mr. Khan’s party has been battered by a widening crackdown, came in a case involving state gifts. His wife, Bushra Bibi, also received a 14-year sentence. Both have denied any wrongdoing.

In announcing the verdict at the high-security prison where Mr. Khan, 71, has been held for months, the judge also said that the former prime minister and his wife would be barred from holding office for 10 years.

Mr. Khan questioned the fairness and impartiality of the trial during the hearing on Wednesday. He asked the judge: “Why are you in a hurry to announce the verdict? I have not even recorded my final statement.” Mr. Khan then exited the courtroom, and the judge announced the sentence in his absence.

His lawyers said they would appeal the verdict. They have also said they will appeal the 10-year sentence that Mr. Khan received on Tuesday, in a case involving state secrets.

“These cases are not trials; this is a drama,” Syed Ali Zafar, a senior legal aide to Mr. Khan, told reporters. “The Constitution and the law have been violated; there is no doubt that this punishment will be suspended soon.”

But analysts said that Mr. Khan’s fate was less a judicial matter than a political one, following a familiar pattern in which popular politicians in Pakistan have been barred from politics after falling out with the military establishment. Top generals have long guided the country’s politics from behind the scenes.

In 2017, Nawaz Sharif, a three-time prime minister who also has a history of running afoul of the military, was removed from office after the Supreme Court ruled that corruption allegations had disqualified him.

Mr. Sharif now appears to have been rehabilitated by the military, after his earlier sentences were overturned and he was allowed to return to Pakistan from exile. He is now running an election campaign in the hope of becoming prime minister for a record fourth time.

His rival, Mr. Khan, a former world-famous cricketer, was removed from power in April 2022 after a parliamentary vote of no confidence, which came soon after a rift developed between him and the military’s senior command.

Since then, he has led a powerful political campaign, defiantly taking on the generals and setting off a wave of discontent and anger among a large section of society. His popularity among citizens remains high, despite attempts to sideline him.

Still, analysts said Mr. Khan’s legal troubles had greatly diminished the chances of success for his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or P.T.I., at the polls on Feb. 8.

“These convictions will surely dent the morale of Mr. Khan’s party workers,” said Sabir Shah, a political analyst in the eastern city of Lahore.

For second time in 24 hours, ex-Pakistani leader Khan sentenced to prison (Washington Post)

Washington Post [1/31/2024 3:58 AM, Shaiq Hussain and Rick Noack, 6.9M, Neutral]
Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan was sentenced to prison for the second time in 24 hours on Wednesday, this time for 14 years in a corruption case just days before Pakistan’s general election.

Khan, who has been in prison since August, was convicted of exposing official secrets on Tuesday and sentenced to 10 years in prison. Khan’s party said both decisions will be appealed.

According to Pakistani authorities, the timing of the sudden prison sentences, which came just over a week ahead of general elections in the country on Feb. 8, is coincidental.

But Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and allies of the still-popular former leader argue that Wednesday’s prison sentence proves that the upcoming vote is unlikely to be fair.

“It sends a very clear message,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst. “The PTI won’t be allowed to come into power again.”

The erstwhile cricket star surged to power in 2018 on an anti-corruption platform and still has deep support across the country, judging by massive rallies he held last year. Khan’s opponents say the military helped him gain power, but he later fell out with the country’s powerful generals. He has been buried under a wave of lawsuits as his party has been slowly dismantled.

Wednesday’s case centered around accusations that Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi retained state gifts from foreign dignitaries. Khan’s wife was also sentenced to 14 years in prison on Wednesday and turned herself in, the PTI said in a statement.

The case on Tuesday revolved around Khan having in early 2022 publicized details of a secret diplomatic cable that the former prime minister said proved the United States was behind efforts to oust him.

In a statement, Khan’s party said Wednesday that it views this week’s court decisions as “an attempt to provoke supporters to stage protests paving way to sabotage electoral process.”

When Khan was first arrested last May, Pakistani authorities accused his supporters of riots across Pakistan and of targeting installations of the country’s powerful military. The violent unrest followed months of growing tensions between Khan and the military after his ouster by parliament in April 2022.

As prime minister, Khan had clashed with the military leadership over the selection of nominees for key army positions and criticism that his government was failing to address soaring inflation and debt.

Pakistani authorities deny that they have imposed heavy restrictions on the PTI’s campaign in this upcoming election, but have acknowledged targeted measures by citing the risk of more violence and protests.

Khan’s party on Wednesday appealed to its supporters to refrain from rallying publicly to support their leader, saying it did not want to provide the Pakistani establishment with a pretext to crack down further on them.

Imran Khan Sentenced to 10 Years Ahead of Pakistan’s Elections (New York Times)

New York Times [1/30/2024 7:26 AM, Christina Goldbaum, 76K, Negative]
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan was sentenced to 10 years in prison on Tuesday, the latest twist in what is widely seen as a campaign by the military to sideline one of its leading critics.

The sentence, delivered in a case in which Mr. Khan is accused of leaking state secrets, came about a week before Pakistan is set to head to the polls for the first national election since he was ousted in a vote of no confidence in April 2022.

Analysts have called the election among the least credible in Pakistan’s 76-year history because of the military’s widespread crackdown on Mr. Khan and his supporters.

His ouster set off a political showdown between Mr. Khan, 71, and the powerful military — long the invisible hand guiding the country’s politics — that has left Pakistan in crisis for a year and a half. Mr. Khan and his supporters have accused military leaders of orchestrating his removal — an accusation they deny.

As Mr. Khan and his backers have railed against the country’s generals, his popularity has remained high and public anger at the military has swelled. In May, hundreds of protesters attacked military installations in scenes that were once unimaginable in Pakistan.

In response, the military launched a widespread intimidation campaign aimed at weakening Mr. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or P.T.I., and curbing the remarkable political comeback he has made even as he has been jailed in several legal cases and barred from contesting the national election next week.

The verdict on Tuesday was handed down by a special court that was established last year and that analysts say is more deferential to the military’s wishes. Mr. Khan has called the trial a “fixed match,” suggesting its outcome was predetermined, and his party said it would appeal the verdict.

“This 10-year sentence won’t stand for 10 days before the appellate courts. Such brazen disregard of law and constitution has never been witnessed before,” Taimur Malik, one of the lawyers for Mr. Khan, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a former foreign minister and close aide to Mr. Khan, was also handed a 10-year sentence on Tuesday in the same case.

The verdict comes amid a particularly contentious election cycle in which analysts say the military has sought to gut Mr. Khan’s support and pave the way for a victory by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or P.M.L.N., the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

While it is not the first time the military has taken such action in an election, its meddling has been more visible than ever before, observers say.

In recent months, members of Pakistan’s elite — once considered safe from military harassment — have been arrested after expressing support for Mr. Khan, a populist former cricket star.

His party has been barred from using its iconic cricket bat symbol to identify its candidates on ballots — a crucial blow in a country where illiteracy is high and visual cues are critical for many voters to identify candidates. Most P.T.I. leaders have resigned from the party under pressure from the military, they say.

Mr. Khan’s bitter rival Mr. Sharif, who fell out of favor himself with the military before leaving office in 2017, was living in exile until he was allowed to return to the country late last year — a move many saw as a military-led effort to bolster support for its preferred party in this election cycle.

The military’s ramped-up intervention in politics has drawn an unusually fierce public response. Videos criticizing the generals’ repression of P.T.I. have circulated on social media — outside the reach of the military’s censorship machine. Mr. Khan’s rhetoric blasting the country’s generals by name has also deepened young people’s disillusionment about Pakistan’s political system.

Mr. Khan and P.T.I. maintain widespread popular support across the country, analysts say. The economic downturn currently gripping Pakistan has added to the frustration with the military and the country’s other main political parties, including P.M.L.N., which led the coalition government that took over after Mr. Khan’s ouster.

“Certainly, what we are feeling is the growing discontent among the people, growing discontent with the power structure and what is happening now,” said Zahid Hussain, a political analyst in Islamabad. “Pakistan society wants some kind of change.”

Despite that growing frustration, the military’s hand in shaping politics has only grown stronger in recent months, analysts say, as the country’s generals have sought to reassert control. The verdict on Tuesday was widely seen as part of that effort.

It “sends a message to Mr. Khan’s party and supporters that they should not expect any reprieve,” said Asma Faiz, an associate professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Still, many of Mr. Khan’s supporters expressed outrage at the verdict, and said that the repression of their party had only bolstered its support ahead of the polls.

“Everyone in the country knows that all the charges against Mr. Khan are false and motivated by revenge,” said Shabbir Ahmed, a P.T.I. member in Lahore, the capital of Punjab, the most populous province. “Mr. Khan’s supporters are politically aware now. They will seek revenge for all injustices against Khan through their votes on Feb. 8.”

Pakistan Opposition Leader Imran Khan Gets Fresh Conviction (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Journal [1/30/2024 10:32 AM, Saeed Shah, 810K, Neutral]
A court convicted and sentenced Pakistani opposition leader Imran Khan to 10 years in jail on Tuesday on charges of disclosing state secrets, striking a fresh blow to the country’s hobbled opposition days before its national election.

Khan, who was already barred from the Feb. 8 election, and his Tehreek-e-Insaf party have faced a monthslong crackdown since the former prime minister and cricket star was arrested in May last year. This month, a separate court ruled that the party’s candidates couldn’t use its well-known cricket-bat symbol on the ballot, making it difficult for voters to identify candidates.

The party said Tuesday’s conviction was aimed at further disheartening voters and damping turnout. The government has defended the proceedings and said Khan endangered national security. Khan denied the charge.

Khan’s trial took place inside a jail. In recent days, authorities replaced his lawyers with government attorneys, a move Khan’s party says made his defense impossible.

“This was not a trial, it was a fraud,” said Ali Zafar, one of Khan’s lawyers, adding that the party would file an appeal this week that would also seek to have the sentence suspended.

Raja Rizwan Abbasi, a government prosecutor in the case, said that with regard to the disclosure of the official document at the center of the trial, “we proved our case.” He said it was the judge’s right to order the change in Khan’s lawyers, adding that they were dragging out the case.

The maximum punishment for the charge under the country’s official secrets act was a death sentence.

Khan was dismissed as prime minister in a no-confidence motion in 2022 after he fell out with Pakistan’s powerful military. His party was replaced by that led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his main rival and the front-runner in the coming election.

The case centered on an encrypted diplomatic cable sent by the then-Pakistani ambassador to the U.S. in 2022, while Khan was prime minister.

After his ouster, he disclosed the existence of a cable and described its contents as a U.S. official voicing Washington’s concerns to the ambassador over Khan’s foreign policy. His party says he never made the contents of that cable public, only waving a folded piece of paper at a rally.

That meeting happened after Khan went to Moscow and met with President Vladimir Putin on what turned out to be the same day Russia invaded Ukraine.

The cable became a central plank of his campaign alleging that the U.S. and the Pakistani military conspired together to remove him.

The U.S. denies intervening in Pakistani politics or playing any role in ending Khan’s administration. Pakistan is a U.S. ally but relations have cooled in recent decades.

Pakistan’s military says it has intervened in politics in the past but no longer does.

Khan’s foreign minister at the time, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, was also sentenced to 10 years in jail on the same charges.

Khawaja Muhammad Asif, a former defense minister for the party led by Sharif, said Khan had undermined the security of Pakistan.

“Secret documents cannot be used for politics,” Asif said.

There is a long list of other cases filed against Khan. He was convicted in August last year on corruption charges and sentenced to three years in prison. He denied any wrongdoing in that case. That sentence was suspended, pending his appeal of the conviction.

A caretaker government is in place to oversee the election period.

Separately, a roadside bomb hit a motorbike rally of Khan’s party in the remote western province of Balochistan, killing at least four and injuring five more, local officials said.

Video apparently from the scene showed supporters on motorbikes, with passengers on the back, riding through the town of Sibi, waving the party’s flags when a blast took place, sending a cloud of smoke and dust in the air.

The party called for an investigation, which the local authorities said would be carried out. A wave of terrorism has hit Pakistan since the 2021 takeover of neighboring Afghanistan by the Taliban. However, attacks have typically targeted security forces, not civilians.

Jailed Imran Khan Favored in Survey to Run Pakistan’s Economy (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/30/2024 10:00 PM, Faseeh Mangi and Cynthia Li, 5543K, Neutral]
Jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan is the top pick for Pakistani finance professionals to oversee the cash-strapped economy’s recovery, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Khan, effectively barred from contesting the Feb. 8 election, was ranked highest among 12 traders, economists and analysts from some of the nation’s biggest brokerages. Respondents cited the former cricket star’s enduring popularity as a key reason, saying he’d be able to push through market-focused reforms in the long run.

Three-time former premier Nawaz Sharif came second, with respondents mentioning his experience in government and the widespread belief that he’s backed by the country’s powerful military. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a scion of the influential Bhutto clan, was a distant third, with some of those surveyed citing a distrust of dynastic politics.

Khan’s popularity is the elephant in the room as almost 129 million eligible voters prepare to cast their ballots in federal and provincial elections next week. Pakistan has seen its National Assembly complete a five-year term just three times in its 76-year history, and political observers say there’s growing unhappiness with the electoral system with Khan out of the race.

On Tuesday, Khan was handed another jail sentence for his role in publicizing a classified diplomatic cable.

At the same time, Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz have been gaining support from voters since he ended four years of self-imposed exile in London. His return was widely seen as a deal with the generals. A Gallup poll carried out in November showed Sharif holds the highest approval ratings in his base in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.

An analysis by Bloomberg Economics of Pakistan’s misery index — a combination of inflation and unemployment rates — showed Sharif’s party performed better in managing the economy over the past three decades compared with rivals, including Khan.

The elections are intended to bring an end to the political volatility weighing on Pakistan since Khan’s ouster in April 2022, leading to his very public confrontation with the army that has loomed large over foreign policy and the economy. Whoever wins the polls will oversee an economy that’s grappling with low reserves and stubbornly high inflation. The country is likely to require another loan from the International Monetary Fund to stay afloat.

All 12 survey respondents said they didn’t expect Pakistan to survive without a new IMF loan. Half of them said Pakistan can survive without a bailout for six months, in a sign the economy remains fragile. A nine-month IMF program is set to end in March, and Pakistan has about $1 billion in dollar-denominated debt due in April.

Here are other findings from the survey carried out in January:

Poll contributers expect Pakistan’s economy to log 2.65% growth in the fiscal year starting July. The government estimates the economy will expand 2%-2.5% in the current fiscal year after contracting about 0.3% last fiscal year

Inflation is likely to moderate to 25.05% in fiscal year ending June. It now stands at about 30%

Four respondents said Pakistan can survive without an IMF loan for three months while two said nine months. None said the country can survive for more than a year without a bailout

At least 15 killed after rebel attacks in Pakistan’s Balochistan (Reuters)

Reuters [1/30/2024 1:40 PM, Mushtaq Yousufzai and Saleem Ahmed, 5239K, Neutral]
A separatist militant attack in Pakistan’s restive southwestern Balochistan region late on Monday left at least 15 people dead, including two civilians and four law enforcement agents, the Pakistani military said in a statement.

Militants, including suicide bombers, attacked Mach and Kolpur complexes in the southwestern province of Balochistan, the Pakistan military’s Inter Services Public Relations agency (ISPR) said. At least nine militants including three suicide bombers were killed, it said.

"Security forces in the vicinity were immediately mobilised who are carrying out ensuing operation," ISPR said.

The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the most prominent of several separatist groups in the southwestern province of Balochistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.

The group aims to achieve independence for mountainous and mineral-rich Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province by territory but the smallest in terms of population, which has seen a decades-long insurgency.

Balochistan borders Afghanistan to the north, Iran to the west and has a long coastline on the Arabian Sea. It has Pakistan’s largest natural gas field and is believed to hold many more undiscovered reserves. It is also rich in precious metals including gold, the production of which has grown over recent years.

Balochistan is a key location in China’s huge multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of President Xi Jinping’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

Balochistan battle death toll rises to 15, says Pakistan military (Agence France-Presse)

Agence France-Presse [1/30/2024 10:12 PM, Staff, 11975K, Negative]
Four Pakistan servicemen and two civilians were among 15 killed in an hours-long gun battle with Balochistan militants in the southwest of the country, the military said.

Provincial officials told AFP on Tuesday at least six militants were killed in the clashes, but the military said later that "nine terrorists including three suicide bombers" had died in the exchange.

"However, during intense exchange of fire, four brave members of Law Enforcement Agencies, having fought gallantly, embraced Shahadat (martyrdom) along with two innocent civilians," said Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistan military’s information wing.

The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) -- an armed separatist group -- claimed responsibility for the attack.

Provincial government spokesman Jan Achakzai said there had been coordinated attacks overnight Monday on at least three state facilities -- including a paramilitary headquarters and a police station.

An AFP photographer saw the charred remains of several trucks in Bolan Colony, an arid district punctuated by fortified hills and scene of some of the heaviest fighting.

Islamabad has for decades battled ethnic separatist factions in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but poorest province, which is rich in natural resources.

Locals say they do not get their fair share of wealth from the oil and gas reserves, with the region consistently ranking at the bottom of Pakistan’s human development indicators.

Rights groups say a military crackdown on ethnic Baloch citizens includes enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

Tensions over militancy in the region flared this month when Islamabad hit BLA fighters sheltering in neighbouring Iran, after Tehran targeted anti-Iran militants sheltering in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Islamist Parties Could Emerge Spoilers or Kingmakers (The Diplomat)

The Diplomat [1/30/2024 7:18 AM, Abdul Basit, 201K, Neutral]
On February 8, Pakistanis will vote in elections to the national and provincial assemblies. Rather than an organic and genuine electoral process, the general election resembles a selection of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to head a weak, coalition government.

A week ahead of the general elections, the political atmosphere in Pakistan is dull and the public seems indifferent to what many view as a rigged process, the military establishment’s catharsis against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was also chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI).

Against this backdrop, it is somewhat difficult to probe the role of different religious-political outfits in the upcoming elections and their public appeal.

Twenty-three religious parties out of 175 registered political parties are in the electoral fray. Traditionally, Islamist parties have performed poorly in national and provincial elections; the only exception was the 2002 general elections when the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) — a coalition of six religious parties — performed well and formed the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces

Since 2013, the electoral appeal and vote bank of Islamist parties has steadily declined, notwithstanding the meteoric rise of the neo-Barelvi outfit Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) in the 2018 elections. This trend is likely to persist in the upcoming elections as well. Reportedly, in the 2018 elections, 12 Islamist parties secured 5.2 million out of 54.3 million ballots polled across Pakistan.

Four factors are likely to contribute to the vote share of Islamist parties declining in the February 8 elections. Firstly, unlike the 2018 elections, these parties have not formed any electoral alliances. In 2018, religious outfits that were part of the MMA coalition revived the alliance and contested polls from its platform. However, this is not the case in the current election.

Secondly, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the absence of any emotively appealing and religiously sensitive issue that these parties exploit to galvanize their niche vote banks in different parts of Pakistan will also contribute to their poor electoral performance. In the current elections, the real issues confronting Pakistan are civil-military relations, rising inflation and the poor state of the economy as well as the deteriorating security situation. On none of these issues do any of the Islamist parties hold any relevance in the eyes of the voters.

Thirdly, since Islamist parties have not come together in an alliance, their votes are scattered across Pakistan and it barely translates into a substantive number of seats at the national or provincial levels.

Finally, unlike the 2018 elections, when the military establishment backed the TLP to undermine the PML-N’s vote bank, the generals are not backing any religious entity in the upcoming vote. The lack of backing from the establishment will also contribute to the Islamist parties performing poorly.

The TLP, which bagged 2.2 million votes in the 2018 elections, will struggle to retain its tally in the upcoming elections. Similarly, it will not secure a sizeable number of seats at the national or provincial levels. It bears mention that the TLP secured two provincial seats from Sindh in the 2018 elections. At any rate, TLP has 4,000-8,000 votes in every constituency in Punjab and urban Sindh, i.e., Karachi and Hyderabad. It is capable of spoiling the show for mainstream political parties in Punjab and urban Sindh. For instance, TLP could dent the vote share of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the PTI in Karachi.

Likewise, in Punjab, it could hurt the PML-N and PTI’s “independent candidates” in certain constituencies. It bears mention that in the 2018 elections, TLP deprived the PML-N of 15 national assembly seats. It remains to be seen, given that the establishment is not backing the TLP, whose show the party will spoil once the final results are out.

The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) is another Islamist party that is worth mentioning. Despite an expected poor electoral performance, it could win some seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pashtuns areas of Balochistan. The assumption is that the JUI-F will partially benefit from the political vacuum created by the weakening of the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In the 2018 election, the JUI-F secured 12 national assembly seats and if the party repeats its performance or wins 8-10 seats, it will emerge as a key kingmaker in a hung parliament where smaller parties will play a vital role in the formation of the government. Their political influence and bargain leverage could increase.

The JUI-F is quite close to the PML-N and it will join the ruling coalition, provided it succeeds in winning 8-10 national assembly seats. Whether the JUI-F succeeds in forming the government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in alliance with the Awami National Party (ANP) and Pervez Khattak’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentarians (PTIP), will depend in large part on the performance of PTI’s independent candidates as well as the former two.

If ANP and PTIP do well — the chances for which are very slim — and the JUI-F puts up an impressive show at the provincial level, then a coalition government of these parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected.

The sectarian political organizations and political fronts of militant outfits like Jamaat-ud-Dawa as well as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) will also struggle to gain substantive votes in the February 8 elections. For instance, the anti-Shia Sunni outfit, Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), contested the 2013 election as a coalition partner of the Muttahida Deeni Mahaz coalition and its candidates got around 6,000 votes in different constituencies. In the 2018 election, ASWJ participated in the polls as the Rah-i-Haq Party and its vote share shrank further.

Likewise, the Shia party, Majlis Wahdat Muslimeen (MWM), bagged 12,360 votes in the 2018 elections down from 41,532 in 2013. The downward trend in 2024 is likely to continue. Similarly, Markazi Jamiat Ahle Hadith secured just 520 votes in 2013 and did not show any enthusiasm in the 2018 polls. Finally, the JI, notwithstanding a surge in its vote bank in Karachi’s local elections, is running a perfunctory election campaign and seems resigned to a poor electoral performance already.

From the above, Islamist parties, specifically the JUI-F and TLP, will either emerge as kingmakers or spoilers for mainstream political parties in the February 8 elections. Other outfits, despite a declining vote bank, will continue to retain the relevance, legitimacy and social influence as pressure groups by dint of participation in the electoral process.

India

Modi’s Party Expands Control to 17 Indian States Ahead of Polls (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/30/2024 11:21 PM, Swati Gupta, 5.5M, Neutral]
India’s ruling party expanded its control to nearly two thirds of the country’s states, strengthening Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid to extend his decade in office in nationwide elections in coming months.

The Bharatiya Janata Party either outright or as a coalition member now governs 17 of India’s 28 states after adding the eastern region of Bihar into its fold this weekend. The states have a total population of 720.6 million and account for about 55.24% of the 543 lawmaker seats in parliament.

Control at the state level doesn’t necessarily mean voters will support the BJP in national elections. However, it does bolster the ruling party’s chances, especially with the opposition alliance — known by the acronym I.N.D.I.A. and created last year to dent Modi’s popularity — now weakened by the latest developments in Bihar.

“It’s taken the wind out of the sails of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance,” said Neerja Chowdhury, an author and political columnist. “The I.N.D.I.A. alliance was a bit like a house of cards and if you remove one card, the whole thing comes crashing down.”

The other 11 states not in the BJP’s control are ruled by regional parties or the Indian National Congress, the country’s main opposition party.

The latest developments in Bihar saw the chief minister of the state, notorious for switching political sides, dissolving the opposition-led government to join forces with Modi’s party. There are other cracks in the opposition alliance as well, with some parties seeking to contest elections on their own in some states.

The Election Commission of India is expected to announce the dates for the polls in coming weeks, with voting likely to take place around April and May. More than 945 million registered voters will be heading to the polls to elect the 543 lawmakers to the lower house of the Indian parliament. In the 2019 vote, about 614 million people voted out of 911 million who registered.

The BJP won 303 of the parliamentary seats in the 2019 national elections, crossing the halfway mark of 272 comfortably on its own. At the end of its term, the party currently holds a total of 290 seats or 55.45% of the sitting house. With Bihar’s switch, the BJP and its allies govern states with a total number of 300 seats.

Modi’s party set to bring contentious common civil laws in India through states (Reuters)

Reuters [1/31/2024 3:59 AM, Krishn Kaushik, Rupam Jain and Saurabh Sharma, 5.2M, Neutral]
An Indian state ruled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is set to introduce contentious new common personal laws that will apply across religions next week, a template other state officials say they will look to follow.

Currently, India’s Hindus, Muslims, Christians and large tribal populations can follow their own personal laws and customs, or an optional secular code, for marriage, divorce, adoption and inheritance.

Framing a national common law has been one of the three core, decades-old promises of Modi’s Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). It has fulfilled the other two: building a fiercely contested grand Hindu temple, and removing the autonomy of the Muslim-majority region of Jammu and Kashmir.

The northern state of Uttarakhand, nestled in the Himalayan foothills, is expected to unveil a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) bill next week, officials said.

The move comes ahead of Modi’s bid to win a rare third term in general elections to be held by May, and may further help consolidate the Hindu vote, analysts say.

The UCC is a divisive issue, as many minority Muslims who criticise the BJP for its hardline Hindu-first image see it as interference with centuries-old Islamic practices, including polygamy and instant divorce.

Calling the UCC a "trial balloon" ahead of the elections, federal lawmaker and a prominent Muslim voice Asaduddin Owaisi said Hindu nationalists professed to like non-uniformity, except when it came to Muslims.

Although no draft of the UCC has been presented, BJP leaders have said it primarily has to do with modernising Muslim personal laws.

A committee set up in Uttarakhand in 2022 to draft the code will submit its work to the state government on Friday. It is likely be presented to the state’s legislative body next week, two officials said.

"Several state governments across India are looking at whether a uniform civil code could be implemented," Nalin Kohli, a national BJP spokesperson said. "The systematic process to get uniform civil code in several states has begun."

Uttarakhand’s chief minister, Pushkar Singh Dhami, said on social media platform X that his ministers would study the draft and "start the process to make it into a bill and then an act".
Modi’s government ended special privileges enjoyed by Kashmir in August 2019 and earlier this month unveiled a grand temple to Hindu deity Ram replacing a Mughal-era mosque razed by radical Hindu groups in 1992.

Personal laws can be legislated by both federal and state governments, and other BJP-ruled states have said they could use the Uttarakhand UCC draft as a template.

Earlier this month, BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma, chief minister of Assam state, said: "I am waiting to see the UCC bill of Uttarakhand and once that is done, we will bring the same legislation" with some modifications.

Keshav Prasad Maurya, Deputy Chief Minister of the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, told Reuters that "wherever the BJP is (in power) the possibility of bringing UCC has been and will always be there", adding it will introduced "at the right time".

Hate crime tracker Hindutva Watch blocked in India ahead of national vote (Al Jazeera)

Al Jazeera [1/31/2024 12:00 AM, Yashraj Sharma, 2.1M, Negative]
The website of Hindutva Watch, a United States-based independent research project that documents hate crimes against religious minorities in India, is no longer accessible in India, days after government officials warned its founder that they might block it.

The website of India Hate Lab, another initiative dedicated to exclusively tracking hate speech in the country, can also no longer be accessed in India even though both platforms are available outside the country.

“We received communication from MEITY (Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology) under the IT Act last week regarding the potential blocking of India Hate Lab and Hindutva Watch,” Raqib Hameed Naik, the founder of both projects, told Al Jazeera, referring to India’s Information Technology (IT) Act.

On January 29, Naik was informed by users in India that both websites had become inaccessible on multiple servers, he said. “Currently, I am exploring legal options,” Naik added.

The government issued notices for blocking the websites under section 69A of the controversial IT Act, which empowers authorities to prevent the public from accessing information citing the “interest of sovereignty, integrity, and security” of India. The Supreme Court of India in 2022 had struck down another section of the IT Act that allowed the government to prosecute people for sending “offensive” messages online – multiple governments, across political parties, had used that section to arrest everyday civilian critics, from a cartoonist to a chemistry teacher.

Al Jazeera reached out to India’s IT ministry for comments but has not yet received a response.

Naik, a Kashmiri journalist living in the US since 2020, launched the Hindutva Watch website in April 2021. He is joined by 12 volunteers, spread across five countries, who work through different time zones to keep up with the documentation of rising hate crimes in India.

Since its launch, Hindutva Watch has grown into a rare database that documents hate speech and violence against India’s religious minorities, which have escalated everywhere from major cities to smaller towns, yet often receive little mainstream press coverage in the country or outside it. The project has been documenting two to four hate events daily, nearly double the number of reported incidents from a year ago.

Its critics, however, accuse Hindutva Watch, Naik and their coverage of being driven by a bias against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its political ideology, called Hindutva.

Censorship fears

The blocking of the websites comes two weeks after X – formerly known as Twitter – withheld the account of Hindutva Watch in India on January 16, following the government’s order under the IT Act. The X account of India Hate Lab was still accessible in India as of Wednesday morning.

“While shocking, it’s not surprising, considering Prime Minister Modi regime’s history of suppressing free press & critical voices,” Naik wrote on X on January 16, reacting to the ban. “The suppression of our account in India only fuels our determination to continue our work undeterred.”

Critics of the government have pointed to a growing climate of censorship involving X accounts in India since the platform was taken over by billionaire Elon Musk in November 2022. Last year, the company also withheld the accounts of US-based human rights groups – the Indian American Muslim Council and Hindus for Human Rights in India – in response to legal demands by the Modi government.

“Not only is the Indian state rewriting history, the government does not want information, or any kind of documentation, of violence against minority groups,” said Suchitra Vijayan, an author and founder of The Polis Project, a New York-based research and media organisation.

Describing Hindutva Watch as an “institution”, Vijayan said the group of volunteers had effectively used social media to highlight rights abuses against minorities in India. “The Indian government is literally going after anybody still thinking, writing and documenting,” she noted.

The blocking of Hindutva Watch’s website in India is a part of a larger pattern, including “the absolute destruction of media in Kashmir,” she said, referring to a crackdown on independent news outlets and journalists in the region, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan and that both partly control. “A story of David versus Goliath,” she added.

India’s ranking in the 2023 World Press Freedom Index slipped to 161 out of 180 countries, from 150 in 2022, as per the annual report by global media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF). In 2014, when Modi came to power, India stood at 140.

“In any democracy, this kind of violence against minorities should be 24/7 news. But it has been completely wiped out [in India],” Vijayan said. “Even an act of documenting [it] is seen as a threat.”

Run-up to election

In a September 2023 report, Hindutva Watch and India Hate Lab jointly analysed more than 255 documented incidents of hate speech aimed at Muslims and noted that 80 percent of the events took place in states governed by Modi’s BJP.

About 70 percent of the incidents took place in states scheduled to hold elections in 2023 and 2024, the report added. The majority of the hate speech events mentioned conspiracy theories as well as calls for violence and socioeconomic boycotts against Muslims.

India is headed towards a national election, likely to be held in April-May 2024. “There is a huge concern in the way that hate speeches will be used to incite people in the run-up to the elections,” said Geeta Seshu, an editor at Free Speech Collective, a media watchdog. Rather than obstructing the work of such projects, she added, the government should “see them as allies and not adversaries”.

“Is the government trying to shield people that are committing illegal acts against the Constitution?” asked Seshu. “This is a classic ‘shoot the messenger’. By criminalising Hindutva Watch, they are clamping down on reality; censoring the reality.”

In the past, two databases attempted to monitor hate crimes, initiated by the Hindustan Times newspaper and IndiaSpend. Both stopped operating, in 2017 and 2019 respectively, after coming under heavy criticism from Hindu nationalists.

Recent posts by Hindutva Watch on X and their website document hate speech by a BJP leader calling for violence against Muslims in Maharashtra as well as an attack on a Christian couple by a Hindutva mob in the southern state of Karnataka — reports that are now inaccessible in India.

“It is not easy for these groups to secure any kind of action against these hate speeches but Hindutva Watch has a very strong network [of sources to report],” said Seshu. “It is an autocratic regime that silences any kind of independent point of view. The dangers to the larger democratic functioning of India are something we all need to wake up to.”

Indian government appoints members for new finance panel (Reuters)

Reuters [1/30/2024 3:36 PM, Nikunj Ohri, 5239K, Positive]
The Indian government on Tuesday appointed four members of the new Finance Commission that will recommend how federal taxes will be shared with states.

According to a government order issued late Tuesday, three full-time members of the 16th Finance Commission include former Expenditure Secretary Ajay Narayan Jha; former Department of Expenditure official Annie George Mathew; and Niranjan Rajadhyaksha, executive director of policy consultancy firm, Artha Global.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, has been named as a part-time member, according to the government order.

The Indian government sets up a Finance Commission every five years to suggest the formula for sharing of taxes between the federal and state governments and make recommendations on public finances.

Last month, the government had appointed economist Arvind Panagariya the chair of the new Finance Commission.

The panel will submit its report by Oct. 31, 2025 covering a period of five years commencing on April 1, 2026.

Hunger is India’s ‘biggest problem’ — one of the world’s largest food producers leaves millions hungry (CNBC)

CNBC [1/30/2024 9:18 PM, Lee Ying Shan, 6.8M, Negative]
Rice, wheat, milk and sugarcane — India is among the largest producers of these agricultural commodities, yet millions are still starving in the world’s most populous country.

“Hunger is the biggest problem in India,” a representative of global agribusiness Bunge told CNBC on the sidelines of the Commodity Trading Week held in Singapore.

“There’s still [millions] of people that are hungry. They are still not getting the food they want. If they are getting the food, it’s not nutritious,” said Amit Sharma, Bunge’s global trade execution team leader.

India may be the second largest food producer in the world based on calorie content, yet the country came in 111 out of 125 countries in the recently published Global Hunger Index, which referred to the level of hunger in India’s population as “serious.”

India, with a population of 1.4 billion, accounts for one quarter of the world’s undernourished and is home to over 190 million hungry people.

Logistics and supply chains

A big part of the problem lies with logistical setbacks.

“The only reason is because there is no supply chain. No one talks about the supply chain. No one talks about the logistics,” said Sharma.

India’s “poor infrastructure” has led to almost 40% of postharvest losses for some products, according to data from the International Trade Administration, part of the U.S. Commerce Department.

India’s Department of Food and Public Distribution did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Postharvest losses refer to food lost in the supply chain from the harvesting of crops to the consumption process. Vegetables and fruits expire more quickly when there’s a lack of cold storage, and hundreds of tonnes of food grains risk rotting in warehouses.

Other reasons for India’s low productivity include “inefficient” food distribution systems, erratic and unusual weather, heavy regulations as well as lack of education and training for farmers, the ITA said.

India’s food problem is also compounded by the fact that the rising middle class is on course to demand for more food — and better quality food as well.

“The first thing a person spends money on getting an extra income is on better food,” Garima Jain, deputy CEO and head of grains at Louis Dreyfus, said during a panel discussion at the conference. She added that protein requirements in India are set to increase.

The need for food security has become paramount, both Jain and Sharma said. It’s an issue the government has to face head on as the country’s election approaches.

India’s protectionist approach

India is the world’s top producer of milk, and the second largest producer of rice, wheat, vegetables and fruit.

The country says it is “self-reliant and internationally competitive,” yet in the past year, volatile supplies and price movements for crucial food products have led the government to clamp down on overseas shipments.

India has faced some volatile supplies and price movements for crucial food products in the past year, which led the government to clamp down on overseas shipments.

In an effort to rein in domestic prices, India banned exports of onions from December to March. In October, the country extended its curbs on sugar exports which started in September.

India, the world’s top exporter for rice, also banned exports of non-basmati white rice in July.

Prices of tomatoes, an important staple in local dishes, also skyrocketed last year due to adverse weather conditions.

With elections fast approaching, some are hoping that more measures could be given to aid the country’s food ecosystem.

“The upcoming Budget might include measures to support the rural and farming community, as the sector faces near-term disruptions owing to unpredictable weather conditions, and incipient inflationary pressures,” Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank said, told CNBC in an email.

India is due to release its interim budget on Thursday.

India’s navy rescues two hijacked boats. British military warns of two pirate groups in Indian Ocean (AP)

AP [1/30/2024 2:04 PM, Staff, 456K, Neutral]
India’s naval forces rescued an Iranian-flagged fishing vessel hijacked by Somali pirates and freed its 19-member Pakistani crew off the east coast of Somalia, a navy statement said Tuesday.

Later that day, the navy said in a statement it also rescued a Sri Lankan fishing vessel, together with forces from Seychelles and Sri Lanka.

The Iranian vessel Al Naeemi was rescued late Monday after the Indian navy intercepted the vessel, forcing 11 Somali pirates to release the crew and boat. It didn’t immediately say what happened to the hijackers, but it posted images showing 10 pirates with their hands tied behind them and armed Indian naval troops guarding them. Another image showed some armed pirates on the vessel.

The piracy occurred in international waters about 850 nautical miles (1,570 kilometers) west of the Indian coastal city of Kochi.

The navy said in a separate statement it rescued the Sri Lankan vessel, Lorenzo Putha 04, after three pirates hijacked it 955 nautical miles (1770 kilometers) east of Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. It called the operation a “coordinated multilateral response to the hijacking” but did not elaborate on who the pirates were.

This came a day after India’s forces freed another Iranian fishing vessel named Iman and its 17 crew members in the same waters. On Saturday, the Seychelles’ defense forces and coast guard rescued six Sri Lankan fishermen whose vessel had been hijacked by Somali pirates.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations on Tuesday said there are reports of two pirate groups operating in the Indian Ocean, with one near the South of Socotra, Yemen. It said both groups could include “a mothership and a number of small crafts.” It also advised vessels to “transit with caution” and report suspicious activity.

The Indian navy has ramped up its deployment by sending three guided missile destroyers and reconnaissance aircraft to the vast Indian Ocean amid disruptions in global shipping due to attacks by Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea since November.

They have carried out several anti-piracy missions in addition to helping at least four merchant vessels that were attacked in the high waters amid Israel’s war with Hamas.

IMF raises India’s growth forecast to 6.5% for next financial year (Reuters)

Reuters [1/30/2024 1:07 PM, Sakshi Dayal, 5239K, Positive]
India’s economy is likely to grow at 6.5% in the financial year starting April 1, 2024 and at a similar pace the year after, the International Monetary Fund said in its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.

The IMF also revised its projections for GDP growth in the world’s fifth largest economy during the current financial year to 6.7% from 6.3% in October.

The strong growth projection for India came even as the report projected that growth in the wider region of "developing Asia" will decline to 5.2% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025 from an estimated 5.4% in 2023.

"Growth in India is projected to remain strong at 6.5% in both 2024 and 2025, with an upgrade from October of 0.2 percentage point for both years, reflecting resilience in

domestic demand," the IMF report said.

The IMF’s projection of 6.5% is lower than the Indian federal government’s expectation of 7% growth in the economy in the next fiscal year, as stated in its latest economic review released on Monday.

The growth estimates come days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government presents its last budget prior to parliamentary elections, in which he will seek a third term.

India Could Help Break China’s Hold on U.S. Drug Supply Chains (Newsweek – opinion)

Newsweek [1/30/2024 11:40 AM, Rahul Tiwari, 2244K, Neutral]
In recent years, increasing geopolitical tensions, trade decoupling, and the coronavirus pandemic have revealed the vulnerability of America’s pharmaceutical supply chains. It is increasingly evident that the United States’ dependence on China is a significant risk, especially for obtaining vital medications. Addressing this risky dependency is of utmost importance.

Fortunately, India—an increasingly important partner and friend to the United States—is positioned to help. Tapping into this partnership and the burgeoning potential of India’s pharmaceutical manufacturing sector could be the key to alleviating this critical issue.

Experts have long recognized the risks of current drug supply chains. Well into the 1990s, Japan and Western nations produced well over 90 percent of the world’s active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). These are, per Janet Woodcock, the director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, "the actual drugs that are then formulated into tablets, capsules, injections, etc." However, in 2017, China produced 40 percent of the world’s APIs. By the time the COVID pandemic hit in 2020, China "accounted for the bulk of exports of certain pharmaceutical raw materials" and "now plays an indispensable role in the supply chain for antibiotics and vitamins," according to Nikkei Asia.

China’s indispensable role carries various national security implications. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s 2019 annual report, produced before the COVID pandemic, declared that the United States is so "heavily dependent" on China’s pharmaceutical sector that Beijing could "use U.S. dependence on China as an economic weapon and cut supplies of critical drugs." The 2020 annual report, produced well into the COVID pandemic, called on Congress to "consider establishing a ‘Manhattan Project’-like effort to ensure that the American public has access to safe and secure supplies of critical...drugs and medical equipment."

That access is already being undermined. A 2023 hearing by the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs found that "drug shortages increased by nearly 30 percent last year compared with 2021, with an average shortage lasting 18 months and some spanning 15 years. They include common antibiotics, anesthetics and sterile fluids used to keep intravenous drug tubes clean." These kinds of shortages, caused by "an opaque supply chain and the fact that as much as 80 to 90 percent of certain products are made overseas," amount to "serious national security threats," according to Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chairman of the committee.

Political leaders have made efforts to tackle this problem. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.), for example, late last year introduced the Further Strengthening America’s Supply Chain and National Security Act, which aims to "decrease our reliance on other countries to produce pharmaceuticals and increase control over our own supply chain for these life-saving drugs."

Yet these sorts of efforts run into a major problem: costs. An investigation by Nikkei found that drug "producers are under especially high pressure to limit costs," since "the only thing that makes a generic drug competitive is price." At present, drug manufacturing is far too expensive in the United States and Europe, whereas Asian states have far lower costs owing to access to cheaper raw materials and less onerous environmental regulations.

This is where India can be of great help to the United States and the West. New Delhi has been actively exploring strategies to achieve greater self-reliance in its own pharmaceutical supply chain.

In March 2020, India’s government unveiled a strategy to boost local manufacturing of key pharmaceutical components. This included implementing a Production Linked Incentive (PLI) program valued at 69.4 billion rupees (approximately $830 million), which provides financial incentives to qualified manufacturers for 53 crucial drug ingredients. The scheme has since expanded in the form of PLI 2.0, which aims to "enhance India’s manufacturing capabilities by increasing investment and production in the sector" and eventually "create global champions out of India."

New Delhi’s goal, in other words, is to incentivize sufficient pharmaceutical production in India that the country’s industry can compete with China’s. If successful, the United States, Europe, and the rest of the democratic world would achieve strong pharmaceutical supply chain resiliency while reducing their dependence on Beijing.

Yet much work remains before this vision can become a reality. As noted by Flora Zhu, director of corporate research at Fitch Ratings, "the scale of the production reshoring is limited at this stage and global pharmaceutical companies still procure a large portion of APIs from China, given China’s significant cost advantages."

Diminishing this capabilities gap will require new technological developments, particularly ones that enhance production efficiency and thus reduce the cost of raw materials for drugs. U.S. companies could assist in this endeavor, making strategic investments in and collaborating with Indian enterprises. Collaborations between U.S. and Indian institutions, such as the National Institutes of Pharmaceuticals Education and Research, would also yield myriad benefits.

Addressing America’s pharmaceutical supply chain vulnerabilities is of critical importance, and India’s rising pharmaceutical sector presents a unique opportunity. By collaborating with India, the United States can reduce its dependency on China, fostering a more secure and diversified supply chain. This partnership is key to enhancing global pharmaceutical resilience, but it will require focused efforts in technology, investment, and international cooperation. As the world confronts these challenges, U.S.-India collaboration could be a significant step towards a more secure, and healthy, future.

NSB

Why Aren’t Farmers In Bangladesh Adopting Climate Smart Agriculture? (Forbes)

Forbes [1/30/2024 3:30 PM, Andrew Wight, 7173K, Neutral]
A researcher originally from Bangladesh has been looking at farms in South Asia to determine why agricultural practices aimed at reducing carbon emissions haven’t been adopted.

The agricultural sector is estimated to make up about a third of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the World Bank and the number of people suffering acute food insecurity increased from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million in 82 countries by June 2022.

Asif Ishtiaque, an Assistant professor at Missouri State University, says that climate-smart agriculture is a suite of agricultural practices and technologies designed to address the challenges posed by climate change in the agricultural sector, while also promoting sustainability and resilience.

"I observed majority of the farmers are not adopting most climate-smart agriculture practices and technologies, even nologies were highly recommended by government and non-government agricultural organizations," he says.

Despite the promise of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) to improve food security in South Asia, most CSA practices and technologies have not been widely adopted.

In a study published in January 2024 in Nature Climate Change, Ishtiaque and his coauthors identified the key barriers to climate-smart agriculture adoption in South Asia: Weak organizational capacities; inadequate targeted incentives and limited post-adoption follow-up.

"Previous studies on the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices and technologies were mostly case-study focused and limited to a specific location, whereas it was important to view this problem as a regional issue," he says, adding that large-scale interventions may not be possible if studies are conducted on a case-by-case basis.

Ishtiaque explains that the adoption of these practices not only aids farmers in adapting to climate change impacts but also involves conservation of soil, water, and energy. and that many of the practices and technologies have been shown to lead to increased yields.

"This is particularly useful to regions where arable lands are scarce," he says, "It has been found by agricultural researchers that if farmers do not till their lands between the time of harvesting one crop and sowing the next (zero-tillage), then crop yield increases and can generate greater revenue."

Ishtiaque says that the biggest challenge of this project was the widely-varied nature of South Asian agriculture.

"For example, in Bangladesh, Nepal, and the eastern part of India, agricultural farms are smaller in size and farmers are relatively less wealthy, whereas in the western part of India and some part in Pakistan, farmers are more wealthy and have larger farms. Similarly, soil types, soil nutrients vary across South Asia," he says, "These biophysical and socioeconomic factors play important role in determining the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices and technologies."

Bangladesh: First-hand Climate Impacts

Ishtiaque grew up in Bangladesh, a country in South Asia with numerous rivers and channels.

"In my childhood, my mother used to tell me stories of different countries and we had a large world map at home hanging on the wall," he says, adding that this spurred his interest in geography.

Ishtiaque would go on to complete undergraduate studies in geography and environment at the University of Dhaka, including a project on disaster-induced migration.

"While working in urban slums, I realized that many of these migrants were involved in agriculture before they left their rural origins: because agriculture is heavily nature-dependent, it is an extremely climate-sensitive sector," he says, adding that realization led him to pursue higher education training in climate change impacts on agricultural systems and effective adaptations to minimize those impacts.

"I think enabling scientists from the global south to take the lead in addressing global challenges is imperative for ethical, inclusive, and effective research," Ishtiaque says, adding that a deep-rooted understanding of local contexts, cultural nuances, and community dynamics provides a unique lens for interpreting research outcomes.

"This cultural competency is crucial for developing context-specific solutions that resonate with the communities involved," he says, "Additionally, my firsthand experience with the impacts of global challenges in South Asian region enhances the authenticity and relevance of my work."

Better Rice Varieties

In India, another researcher working on improving agricultural outcomes for farmers is Jauhar Ali, head of the Hybrid Rice Development Consortium (HRDC), at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).

Ali has led a team that developed a rice variety that takes up less arsenic and they’re now working on one that will generate less greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the World Health Organization, an estimated 140 million people in over 70 countries drink water containing the toxic element arsenic at levels above WHO guidelines and in the Indian subcontinent, contaminated water from the Himalayas flow down across multiple countries into farmlands and irrigation reservoirs, which are then absorbed by food crops like rice, the dominant dietary staple in the region.

Ali says that in 2012, he and his team identified that arsenic toxicity was a key rice production constraint in India and Bangladesh.

"We initiated strategic research to develop arsenic protocols for screening and identifying the donors and advancing breeding lines," he says, "By 2019, we had already released arsenic-safe rice varieties like PR126 and BRRI dhan 69 in India and Bangladesh, and they are currently occupying more than a million hectares."

Maldives Prosecutor General Appointed By Previous Administration Reportedly Stabbed (International Business Times)

International Business Times [1/31/2024 12:26 AM, Marvie Basilan, 163K, Negative]
Maldives’ Prosecutor General Hussain Shameem, who was appointed by the previous government that launched an impeachment campaign against current President Mohamed Muizzu, was stabbed Wednesday morning while out on his morning exercise in a street in the Maldivian capital Male, local media reported.

Authorities said Shameem was attacked using a blunt object and suffered an injury to his left forearm, as per local news site The Press. He is receiving treatment and is in stable condition following the attack, local SunOnline reported, citing a spokesperson from the Prosecutor General’s Office.

An investigation has been launched into the incident to determine the motive, and the attackers are yet to be identified.

The news comes after the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) government, led by ex-President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, recently initiated impeachment proceedings against Muizzu.

Solih condemned the attack on Shaheem. "Politically motivated acts of violence have no place in a democratic society and I call on the government to be swift in bringing the perpetrators to justice," he wrote on X.

The MDP also "strongly condemned" the attack, accusing Muizzi of failing to provide protection and security "to the people and those performing constitutional responsibilities and duties," as per a Google-translated statement published by the party Wednesday.

Another Maldivian political party, the Maldives Third-Way Democrats (MTD), also condemned the attack and called for a swift investigation.

This incident comes after opposition lawmakers clashed with parliament members from the ruling party Sunday, leaving MP Abdulla Shaheem Abdul Hakeem injured, as per local media. Violence broke out during a session after MDP MPs withheld approval to four members of Muizzu’s cabinet.

Maldives witnessed political turmoil in recent weeks as Muizzu’s pro-China stance triggered tensions among parliament members. He also faced criticism from pro-India politicians during his campaign when he promised to remove Indian troops from Maldivian territory.

Muizzu recently told India to withdraw nearly 100 troops by March 15. He previously said Maldives was "not a country that is in the backyard of another country," adding that even if the nation was small, it "doesn’t give you the license to bully us."

Girls in Nepal find opportunities in education (The Times)

The Times [1/30/2024 11:00 PM, Ellie McDonald, 990K, Neutral]
In the Dhanusha district of rural Nepal, a young woman dedicates her life to providing for her children through her shop, a level of independence unimaginable just few months ago.

Alayna, now 24-years-old, was born into the Dalit social class — a historically marginalised group in Hindu caste society. At the age of 15, she was pressured into marrying because of difficult family financial circumstances. She was forced to give up the few opportunities at education she had to take over the running of the household.

But after attending charity Street Child’s livelihood programme, Alayna was able to open a grocery store in her own home and sells items to the local village market three days a week. The charity is one of three supported by The Times and Sunday Times Christmas Appeal, which concludes on January 31 with £1.965 million raised so far.

Within two months of starting her business she has been able to pay for her three young children’s school fees.

Alayna said: “I had dreamed of passing school, but due to family pressure I had to get married.

“I didn’t think there was any other way for me. It was only recently I realised that change was possible in my life.

“The idea of opening a grocery store emerged during discussion of future aspirations in the Street Child learning centre. There is a single store in a village, and it is quite far from our location, so I decided to open a grocery shop.

“Through Street Child’s livelihood programme I was able to formulate a business plan to start a shop in my own house. Right now I focus on my business so my children can be independent. I don’t want them to have to face what I did. That’s my plan — but you never know with life.”

Nepal has 5.3 million child brides as of 2022, with early forced marriage affecting about 33 per cent of girls under 18.

Khusbu, now 20, is also one of those girls. After being married at age 15, she has had two miscarriages — one just three months ago. She said: “I couldn’t see any other kind of choice available to me other than marriage. So I just accepted the way it happened.

“Looking back, I was afraid. But at that age I did not understand what was happening. I didn’t understand what marriage was, the meaning of it and what happens after.”

South Asia is home to approximately 290 million child brides, accounting for a staggering 45 per cent of the global total.

Usha Limbu, inclusion adviser for Street Child, said: “Many girls do not have the agency to make autonomous decisions for themselves, even if they wanted to get or job or go into education.

“The community that both Alayna and Khusbu are from are called Dalits — considered to be untouchables within the caste system in Nepal. It means that other communities cannot touch things that they have touched, anything from water resources to temple food.

“The caste-based discrimination is a form of oppression that often leads to unspeakable violence and disadvantages. These are conditions that often lead to forced early child marriage.”

Street Child has worked with more than 11,000 young women and girls in Nepal to help reduce rates of child early forced marriage — 33 of these marriages were prevented through work to improve awareness of marital rights.

The charity’s programmes help to improve the literacy and numeracy skills of young girls to empower them to create businesses — building financial freedom, strengthening their autonomy, and eradicating risk of debt bondage.

Khusbu, who now runs her own business, said: “I am so happy that I can focus on my tailoring business. I have learnt all my skills from Street Child and now my neighbours make up most of my customers.

“I plan to continue to focus and improve my skills and business to increase my income.”

For Alayna, the support from Street Child has meant that she has a stable income and is now dedicating herself to the betterment of her children’s lives.

She added: “I had to completely depend on husband’s income but now I am earning. I am very happy with the life I have nowadays.

“I want my children’s lives to be better. I don’t want them to have to face situation that I have.”

Sri Lanka Inflation Accelerates on Tax Hike, Elevated Food Costs (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/31/2024 4:32 AM, Anusha Ondaatjie, 2060K, Negative]
Sri Lanka’s inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month in January, fueled by a hike in value-added tax and higher food costs.

The consumer price index in Colombo rose 6.4% from a year ago, the statistics department said on Wednesday. That’s faster than a 5.3% climb seen in a Bloomberg survey, and compares with 4% in December.

The print comes after the nation’s central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the first time in five months on Jan. 23 as price gains inched up. The rise, however, could be short-lived and inflation will gradually stabilize around the 5% target level, the monetary authority said.

The government raised the VAT rate on goods and services by 3 percentage points to 18% from Jan. 1, in line with revenue raising measures under a $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout.

The Washington-based lender has called for swift completion of final agreements with Sri Lanka’s official creditors, and reaching a resolution with external private creditors as the nation seeks to achieve debt sustainability. Funds from the IMF have helped the South Asian island recover from an unprecedented crisis and start to build buffers ahead of elections due later this year.

Police in Sri Lanka use tear gas to disperse opposition protest against dire economic conditions (AP)

AP [1/30/2024 8:28 AM, Staff, 11975K, Negative]
Sri Lanka’s police used Tuesday tear gas and water cannons to disperse an opposition protest in the island nation facing its worst economic crisis while gearing up for a national election later this year.

Protesters from the main opposition United People’s Power party gathered in the capital, Colombo, and accused President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s administration of overburdening citizens by increasing taxes, as well as hiking prices for electricity and fuel, causing a sharp spike in living costs.

“The government is not concerned with the people suffering and being unable to provide for themselves,” said opposition lawmaker Sarath Fonseka who was at the protest. “People can no longer pay their bills or buy their children school supplies,” he said.

Fonseka said that “people must rise” and vote against the current government in the coming election.

Earlier on Tuesday, at least two courts prohibited protesters from marching along roads leading to vital buildings including the president’s office, finance ministry and the central bank. Instead, two areas in the capital were assigned for the protest.

Police used tear gas and water canons twice to disperse the protesters as they tried to move out of the designated areas.

However, the opposition said it planned more protests across the country in the coming weeks.

Sri Lanka plunged into its worst-ever economic crisis in 2022. It had declared bankruptcy in April the same year with more than $83 billion in debt, leading to strident protests that caused the ouster of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa The International Monetary Fund approved a four-year bailout program last March to help the South Asian country.

The government defended the measures taken, saying they were necessary to meet the IMF targets, assure the country’s debt was sustainable, and win over the trust of the international community again.

Sri Lanka’s parliament elected current President Ranil Wickremesinghe in July 2022 and under him, shortages of essential goods have largely been abated.

But the opposition accuses him of stifling dissent by cracking down on protesters. Last week, the parliament, where the ruling coalition enjoys majority, overwhelmingly approved an internet regulation bill that was highly criticized for creating “a very oppressive environment.”

Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan: Japarov being primed for second term (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [1/30/2024 4:14 PM, Ayzirek Imanaliyeva, 57.6K, Neutral]
January 28 marked the third year since Sadyr Japarov was officially sworn in as Kyrgyzstan’s president.

In another three years, there will be another election. And by all appearances, Japarov will stand again — and almost certainly win handily, barring any dramatic surprises in the interim.

That much was revealed by garrulous deputy Prime Minister Edil Baisalov in remarks carried on January 29 by RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz service, Radio Azattyk.

“Our president will participate in the next elections. The constitution allows it, so he will not just abandon things halfway. The people will not allow it either. The people have hope now. And in the next three years, they will witness significant achievements,” Baisalov said.

A confirmation of the same arrived on January 30 from Japarov’s spokesman, Askat Alagozov.

“Considering that long-term international projects of strategic importance … are being planned and undertaken, Sadyr Japarov’s participation in the elections for a second term would be consistent with his policies," said Alagozov.

As to whether Japarov is, strictly speaking, allowed to run again, not everybody agrees.

Japarov assumed the presidency under an earlier version of the constitution that permitted only one six-year term. It was only after he was elected that the rules were changed, by means of a constitutional referendum in 2021, to permit presidents to serve up to two five-year terms.

Japarov’s camp does not believe there is any legal ambiguity, though. And since the courts operate in effect at the behest of the presidential administration, they are unlikely to create any obstacles.

Hints have been dropped before about Japarov wanting to extend his time in power.

In November, Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov (his unrelated namesake) stated that Kyrgyzstan needed "stability" until 2030 and an absence of “economic shocks” to repay the country’s nearly $6 billion worth of debt.

A month later, security services chief Kamchybek Tashiyev, a long-time Japarov ally, was more explicit.

"Our president was elected for a term of six years under the old constitution. But according to the current constitution, he has the right to be reelected for a second term,” he wrote on Facebook. “So I hope we can give our support to Sadyr Nurgozhoevich [Japarov] and that we can together serve the people.”

There was an additional nuance to that post by Tashiyev, though. It has been much whispered that Japarov and Tashiyev — who are sometimes derisively dubbed the “eki dos”, or two friends — do not always see eye to eye, and that the latter might one day be tempted to unseat the former and take his place.

But if there is any discord in the relationship at present, it is being well hidden.

The most certain confirmation to date that Japarov intends to run again came from the man himself.

In January, he spoke in an interview to state news agency Kabar about the problem of Kyrgyzstan’s debts. The country’s leadership will need a minimum of 10 years to settle those liabilities, he said.

“By 2035, we will repay the previously assumed debts," he concluded, hinting that he intends to personally oversee this process.

Turkmenistan: Big brother is listening (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [1/30/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Negative]
Long lines outside stores in Turkmenistan are a reliable place to find people complaining about their quality of life.

And so it is there that the security services are focusing their latest hunt for malcontents, as RFE/RL’s Turkmen service, Radio Azatlyk, reported on January 29.

Azatlyk tells the story of one recent incident when a man kvetched to fellow waiting customers outside a pharmacy about the misery of his living conditions and how his wages barely covered the cost of his medicines.

“He also said that the government is uninterested in the problems and living conditions of the people,” a witness to this scene told the broadcaster.

At this, a squealer in the queue called the police, who quickly arrived and bundled the complainer into their van.

“But they didn’t leave right away. After the man was pushed into the police van, he was beaten for some time inside so that others could see it,” Azatlyk’s source said.

The broadcaster said it has been informed by several Ashgabat residents that it has become commonplace for plainclothes security services personnel or their informants to lurk around bus stops, pharmacies and state-owned stores monitoring conversations.

Pursuing justice in such conditions is illusory.

The fate of Allamurat Khudayramov, a 34-year-old man who died in police custody late last year, is illustrative. The details were reported by Amsterdam-based Turkmen.news. On November 27, Khudayramov was detained on suspicion of dealing in tramadol pills, a banned substance in Turkmenistan, and taken to a police holding cell in the city of Mary. Three days later, his relatives received a call telling them to collect his body.

Video footage apparently filmed by Khudayramov’s relatives reveal severe bruising all over his body, indicating that he was likely beaten. His family lodged a complaint with the General Prosecutor’s Office, which responded earlier this month with the airiest of brush-offs.

In a January 9 letter obtained by Turkmen.news, Deputy Prosecutor General Rakhim Atayev suggests that Khudayramov possibly administered a fatal beating to himself while under the influence of tramadol.

Turkmen.news editorially registered its incredulity at this conclusion.

“It is impossible to inflict injuries of this kind [to oneself] on the feet, the back of the thighs, to the back and the buttocks. Traces from a soldering iron, handcuffs and the blows of a club are visible on the body,” the website concludes.

And when punishment is meted out to those that probably deserve it, the consequences can be mild.

Turkmen.news reported on January 24 that the former head of state chemicals company Turkmenkhimiya, Nyyazly Nyyazlyev, was earlier in the month sentenced to 15 years in prison on corruption charges. The claim is that he oversaw the sale of urea produced by Turkmenhimiya to a conspirator at below-market prices and that the commodity was later traded internationally at a handsome profit.

Who was the conspirator? None other, says Turkmen.news, than Hajymyrat Rejepov, a cousin of President Serdar Berdymukhamedov.

Rejepov is at least proving a loyal confederate. He has reportedly paid off Nyyazlyev’s $500,000 fine and has badgered the prison service into giving his comrade cushy conditions behind bars. Rejepov has also promised to get Nyyazlyev freed as soon as possible under one of the president’s regular amnesties.

In Brussels on January 29, Batyr Annayev, the deputy director general of Turkmenistan’s Agency for Transport and Communications, laid out his country’s stall at the Investors Forum for EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity.

One headline takeaway from Annayev’s saturninely delivered speech was that Turkmenistan is investing about $6 billion in the development of its railway network. That has enabled the upgrading of more than 5,000 kilometers of railroad, he said. Overall, some $14 billion has been spent on transportation and communications between 2015 and 2021, Annayev told the forum.

Turning to the sales patter section of his speech, Annayev invited major logistics companies from the European Union to develop transport routes and cross-border logistics hubs. He touted the port of Turkmenbashi as particularly promising.

Turkmen officials tacitly concede that their knowledge base is wanting – and, by extension, that it is this, in part, that has made something of a damp squib of their expensively refurbished Turkmenbashi port.

“We are highly interested in exchanging experience in [the use of] transport management infrastructure and in the introduction of digital technologies for transport management flows,” Annayev said.

Ahmet Demirok, Turkey’s new ambassador to Turkmenistan, has opened his stint with a wide-ranging interview with local reporters. Once he performed the pleasantries, he offered a panoramic view of the state of economic ties between Ankara and Ashgabat. A laudably detailed rundown on the press opportunity on January 25 was provided by Ashgabat-based News Central Asia.

“[Turkey’s] current trade volume with Turkmenistan has tripled over the past four years to reach $2.1 billion in 2022,” Demirok said. “With the current positive direction of our trade relations … we will easily be able to achieve our common goal of $5 billion” in the near future.

To put that in some regional context, bilateral trade with Russia in 2022 amounted to around $1.6 billion. It is estimated that Turkmen-Turkish trade turnover in 2023, meanwhile, hit the $2.7 billion mark, which is a striking year-on-year jump.

Turkish investments have historically spanned across a diverse array of interests, taking in the power industry, transportation, retail, private education, construction, leisure, manufacturing, and healthcare. As Demirok told journalists, Turkish companies have implemented around 1,080 projects with an aggregate value of $50 billion in Turkmenistan since 1991.

It was reported in the middle of last year that Batyr Amanov, the deputy prime minister with the portfolio for overseeing the oil and gas industry, had become embroiled in some unseemly intra-elite squabbles. That he has managed to hold onto his high-ranking positions for as long as he has is likely fruit of his marriage into the ruling family.

He had some positive news to deliver at the January 26 Cabinet meeting, however. As he told President Berdymukhamedov, the Turkmenbashi oil refinery has started producing a product called Hydro Plus diesel fuel, which he said can be used by jets in conditions of extreme cold. Another novelty is a motor oil for powerful diesel engines operating at high temperatures.

Central Asia No Closer to Shaking Perceptions of Corruption (The Diplomat)

The Diplomat [1/30/2024 9:52 AM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Neutral]
Struggling with “dysfunctional rule of law, rising authoritarianism and systemic corruption” the annual Corruption Perceptions Index, released on January 30 by Transparency International, presents a “troubling picture” for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Meanwhile, countries that score highly in the index “have long fuelled transnational corruption,” a mantra familiar in the region we cover here at Crossroads.

Importantly, the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) “measures how corrupt each country’s public sector is perceived to be, according to experts and businesspeople.” So while a country like Switzerland may, itself, score highly it’s precisely its reputation as a “clean” country that makes it attractive for corrupt officials “when choosing where to launder and invest their ill-gotten gains for safekeeping.”

Just a few examples: In 2020, an RFE/RL investigation found that relatives of former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev had invested nearly $785 million in luxury property in six countries over a 20-year time span, including chateau-style mansions on the shores of Lake Geneva. In 2022, an joint investigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Report Project (OCRP) and Kazakh media outlet Vlast found that Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s wife and son had a Swiss bank account, as well as several properties near Lake Geneva, too. It’s not just the Kazakhs; Gulnara Karimova, daughter of the late Uzbek President Islam Karimov, infamously stashed much of her wealth in Switzerland.

This transnational element has gained greater attention over the last decade or so, as it has become more and more clear – with repeated leaks of files such as the Panama Papers, the Suisse Secrets leak, and others – that corruption in “corrupt states” is fundamentally entangled with financial systems controlled by and in “clean” states.

So how is corruption perceived in Central Asia at present? In the just-released 2023 CPI, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are up and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are down. To be clear, on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being “very clean,” no Central Asian country has a score higher than the global average of 43.

Kazakhstan ranks highest, at 93rd out of the 180 countries considered in the index, with a score of 39. Kazakhstan’s score improved over 2022, with Altynai Myrzabekova and Lidija Prokic, Transparency International’s regional advisErs for Europe and Central Asia, writing that Astana has made “some progress in addressing corruption issues, including through legal reforms and recovering stolen assets.” But “these efforts are overshadowed by its autocratic governance alongside lack of transparency and judicial independence.” Furthermore, “the enduring influence of powerful political elites, allows corruption to thrive.”

Uzbekistan’s score has improved steadily over the past decade, rising from a dismal 13 points in 2013 to 33 in 2023. Tashkent’s key efforts have included “creating an anti-corruption agency, strengthening legislation and liberalizing the economy” as well as enforcing existing laws by filing charges against corrupt officials. Like Kazakhstan, however, “its authoritarian governance resists moves towards transparency and democracy, exerting control over legislative and public institutions, and using the justice system against critics.”

Kyrgyzstan is highlighted specifically in the regional report for its sudden backslide since 2020, falling from a score of 31 that year down to 26 as of 2023. “In just four years, Kyrgyzstan… has turned from a bastion of democracy with a vibrant civil society to a consolidated authoritarian regime that uses its justice system to target critics.”

Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are highlighted in the report too, as having among the region’s – and the world’s – worst CPI scores. Tajikistan’s score of 20 is its lowest in the last decade, and marks a decline from last year. Turkmenistan, with a 2023 score of 18, sits in the bottom 10 countries in the world in terms of corruption perception, just one point above North Korea.

Central Asia is, by and large, not anywhere close to shaking persistent perceptions about corruption in the region. Even in cases of improvement, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, there is a limit to how much low-hanging fruit can be picked. To seriously tackle corruption – which is a necessary prerequisite to changing perceptions about corruption – the countries of Central Asia will have to face the bright lights of transparency, and regional elites may not like the glare.

Twitter

Afghanistan

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/30/2024 9:22 AM, 229.1K followers, 204 retweets, 960 likes]
The President of the People’s Republic of China H.E. Xi Jinping, accepted the letter of credence of Mawlawi Asadullah (@BilalKarimi44) as the Ambassador Extraordinaire and Plenipotentiary of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to China

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/30/2024 9:22 AM, 229.1K followers, 3 retweets, 33 likes]
Today, IEA-Ambassador Mawlawi Asadullah “Bilal Karimi”, alongside ambassadors of 41 countries, presented his letter of credence to the President of the People’s Republic of China, H.E. Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during a special ceremony.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/30/2024 9:22 AM, 229.1K followers, 4 retweets, 48 likes]
Accepting the letter of credence of Mr. Karimi, President Xi welcomed him as the Ambassador to China & wished him success in his tenure. During the ceremony, Mr. Karimi also met the Chinese Foreign Minister Mr. Wang Yi.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/30/2024 9:22 AM, 229.1K followers, 3 retweets, 53 likes]
FM Wang Yi congratulated Mr. Karimi for presenting his letter of credence to the President of China. Mr. Karimi took charge of the IEA Embassy in Beijing in December 2023 following presenting a copy of his letter of credence to the Foreign Ministry of China in Beijing.

Massoud Hossaini
@Massoud151
[1/30/2024 4:14 PM, 31.3Kfollowers, 3 retweets, 26 likes]
Sources: #war has started in #Herat!!? Sources inform about a fierce war going on in Herat city, neighboring #Iran. Sources suggest a huge gap among Noorzai tribe VS Durrani tribe of #TalibanTerrorist group. Similar clashes happen among two during the history too.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[1/31/2024 2:12 AM, 62.1K followers, 9 retweets, 16 likes]
Afghan women/girls deserve their day in court against the Taliban, and the ICJ could play an important role. The support of just one state party to CEDAW could make that happen. Could World Court Address Women’s Rights in Afghanistan? | Human Rights Watch https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/01/31/could-world-court-address-womens-rights-afghanistan

Pakistan

Government of Pakistan
@GovtofPakistan
[1/30/2024 1:11 PM, 3.1M followers, 7 retweets, 18 likes]
Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar Addresses the Petroleum Conference 2024
- Emphasized the need for concerted efforts to explore onshore and offshore oil and gas reserves
- Affirmed Government’s readiness to contribute in infrastructure development, logistics, and security
- Appreciated the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and the Federal Ministry of Energy for fostering an investor-friendly environment by streamlining regulations and procedures

Imran Khan
@ImranKhanPTI
[1/30/2024 7:36 AM, 20.3M followers, 31K retweets, 51K likes]
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s lawyer gives out details exposing the illegal manner in which the sham cypher case trial by a Kangaroo court was conducted inside prison, making a complete mockery of law and justice in the country.

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[1/30/2024 12:51 PM, 5.1M followers, 5.7K retweets, 5.6K likes]
In the last 24hours I’ve had complaints from Multan, Lahore , Sargodha. Police are being used to arrest, threaten and intimidate people who join the PPP. PMLN is truly petrified they will lose. Will @ECP_Pakistan take notice?

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[1/30/2024 10:10 AM, 5.1M followers, 5.1K retweets, 6.7K likes]
Another day goes by and Nawaz Sharif has still refused to accept our invitation to have a live debate of PM candidates before the elections on February 8th. It seems the wanna be 4th time PM is too cowardly to face me in a debate and allow the people of Pakistan an opportunity to make an informed choice on Election Day.

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[1/30/2024 8:02 AM, 5.1M followers, 3.5K retweets, 4.2K likes]
Thank you D.I.Khan! The Pakistan Peoples Party is the only political party in Pakistan campaigning for an end to poverty, unemployment, and inflation. Our plan puts you, the people, first. By ending the elite capture of our economy, and redistributing 1500 Billion in subsidies that benefit them, to social welfare programs for the poor, the marginalised, the dispossessed. The time for change is now. Choose the Teer, choose a new path, and choose a peaceful, progressive, and prosperous Pakistan

Kamran Khan
@AajKamranKhan
[1/30/2024 5:42 AM, 5.6M followers, 11 retweets, 102 likes]
Bureaucracy strikes at the SIFC... The Chief Election Commissioner of Pakistan has just urged the Prime Minister to halt the revamp of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). The CEC Sikander Sultan Raja, in a letter to the Prime Minister, expressed this concern shortly after the Federal Cabinet’s special session greenlit the overhaul of the FBR. According to the approved plan, the FBR, as a unified body, will be dismantled into separate entities handling inland revenue services and customs. These will operate under new directors-general and two independent oversight boards. Sources familiar with the matter disclosed that the government might still proceed with the revamp via a presidential ordinance. Subsequently, the newly elected government would have the chance to present it to Parliament for a final decision. The restructuring of the FBR was a prerequisite set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the IMF is expected to persist in its demand for this reforms in the federal revenue board (FBR).

Husain Haqqani
@husainhaqqani
[1/30/2024 4:47 AM, 459.7K followers, 189 retweets, 788 likes]
I have no hesitation in seeing the conviction of Imran Khan as political persecution, just as I saw cases against Benazir Bhutto, Asif Zardari, & Nawaz Sharif as political persecution. I wish Khan & his followers, too, were able to have empathy for those with whom they disagree.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/30/2024 3:18 PM, 41.8K followers, 12 retweets, 81 likes]
Pakistan’s political partisans: democracy for me, but not for you… justice for me, but not for you.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/30/2024 8:22 AM, 41.8K followers, 118 retweets, 351 likes]
A jail trial so that the public could not see Khan, the right to defense counsel denied, and today, a rushed verdict of 10 years in prison for Imran Khan and Shah Mehmood Qureshi in the cipher case — all 9 days before the general election. All too predictable.

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[1/30/2024 3:41 AM, 8.3M followers, 409 retweets, 2.3K likes]
Look at the timing. Nawaz Sharif was convicted just few days before the 2018 election. Now Imran Khan convicted just few days before the 2024 election. Is it a coincidence?

India

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/30/2024 11:56 PM, 95M followers, 2.9K retweets, 9.5K likes]
Speaking at the start of the Budget Session of Parliament. May it be a productive one. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1YqGoDOpzOgJv

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/30/2024 9:13 AM, 95M followers, 3.7K retweets, 25K likes]
Attended a prayer meeting earlier this evening. We will always work towards realising Mahatma Gandhi’s dream for our nation.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/30/2024 2:24 AM, 95M followers, 16K retweets, 64K likes]
I am delighted that Rashtrapati Ji has nominated Shri Satnam Singh Sandhu Ji to the Rajya Sabha. Satnam Ji has distinguished himself as a noted educationist and social worker, who has been serving people at the grassroots in different ways. He has always worked extensively to further national integration and has also worked with the Indian diaspora. I wish him the very best for his Parliamentary journey and am confident the Rajya Sabha proceedings will be enriched by his views. @satnamsandhuchd

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[1/30/2024 8:01 AM, 1.5M followers, 103 retweets, 986 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar attended the Sarva Dharma Prarthana Sabha at Gandhi Smriti today. #MahatmaGandhi

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/30/2024 4:38 AM, 3M followers, 295 retweets, 1.6K likes]
Spoke at IIM Mumbai today on “Why Bharat Matters”.
Responded to:
- What is it like being PM Modi’s Foreign Minister?
- Why did I write my latest book?
- What is the relevance of Ramayana to modern day challenges?
- What are the opportunities and challenges the world holds for our youth?
- How is the Indian transformation impacting global thinking?
In short, Why Bharat Matters. Thank @vijai63 for moderating the discussion and the students and faculty of IIM Mumbai for joining.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/30/2024 3:37 PM, 205.6K followers, 22 retweets, 184 likes]
The Indian Navy claims it rescued 19 Pakistanis on a fishing vessel hijacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia. In recent days Indian naval vessels have helped several distressed ships, a few with Indian crews, targeted by piracy and Houthi attacks.

NSB

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/30/2024 11:39 AM, 635.8K followers, 28 retweets, 75 likes]
Ahead of the Holy month of #Ramadan, Prime Minister #SheikhHasina gave directives to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to reduce tariff on the four essentials commodities- rice, edible oil, sugar and date. https://bssnews.net/news-flash/170655 #Ramadan2024 #Bangladesh

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/30/2024 5:10 AM, 635.8K followers, 45 retweets, 102 likes]
A Dhaka-based journalist and the son of a 1971 war hero discusses the bloody origins of #Bangladesh, the extrajudicial killings under military rule, the changing face of the country’s politics, the role of #Pakistan and the US, the 2024 elections and much more. Video: @ThePrintIndia #BangladeshPolitics #Dictator #ZiaurRahman

Ibrahim Mohamed Solih
@ibusolih
[1/31/2024 1:27 AM, 146.9K followers, 118 retweets, 189 likes]
I condemn the violent assault on Prosecutor General Hussain Shameem this morning. I wish PG Shameem a speedy recovery. Politically motivated acts of violence have no place in a democratic society and I call on the government to be swift in bringing the perpetrators to justice.

Abdulla Shahid
@abdulla_shahid
[1/31/2024 2:02 AM, 116.9K followers, 21 retweets, 26 likes]
Horrified by the reports that Prosecutor General Hussain Shameem was attacked on the streets of Malé this morning. I pray for his speedy recovery. I call upon the government to investigate this attack and ensure a peaceful and stable society. State Officials must be provided with adequate protection so that they can perform their constitutional duties without fear.

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/30/2024 6:00 AM, 256.3K followers, 10 retweets, 34 likes]
Foreign Minister Hon @NPSaudnc addresses today a seminar on ‘Strengthening Nepal-India Cultural Cooperation’ organized by Centre for South Asian Studies in Kathmandu today. @sewa_lamsal @amritrai555

Central Asia

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[1/30/2024 11:28 PM, 4.5K followers, 3 likes]
Meeting with the Ambassador of the Republic of India https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14267/meeting-with-the-ambassador-of-the-republic-of-india

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[1/30/2024 11:14 PM, 4.5K followers]
Ambassador’s business trip to Kutahya region https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14263/ambassadors-business-trip-to-kutahya-region

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[1/31/2024 1:26 AM, 153.8K followers, 1 retweet, 8 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev held a meeting with the members of the Cabinet of Ministers, governors and state bodies on priority tasks in the spheres of housing and communal services, construction, transportation and ecology.

Javlon Vakhabov
@JavlonVakhabov
[1/30/2024 10:55 PM, 5.8K followers, 2 retweets, 4 likes]
Always a pleasure to speak with good friend of mine Ambassador Jonathan Henick @UsAmbUzbekistan. We discussed the outcomes of the first-ever historic C5+1 Presidential Summit took place in New York last year identifying some key areas for joint action that coincide with the @IICAinTashkent’s priority research tasks. We highly value partnership under this format as we strive for more resilient, prosperous, and united Central Asia.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/30/2024 11:44 PM, 22.5K followers, 1 like]
In 2023, 70,400 foreigners visited Uzbekistan for commerce, according to Uzbekistan statistics.
Top 5:
Turkmenistan — 46,500
Tajikistan – 14,800
Afghanistan – 1,900
Turkey – 1,000
China - 1,000
5,200 from other countries, meaning very few from the West, Russia, Arab countries, and South Asia.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/30/2024 11:58 AM, 22.5K followers, 1 retweet]
Among 180 countries, Kazakhstan ranks 93, Uzbekistan 121. Other Central Asian states are more towards the bottom. @anticorruption

{End of Report}

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