SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS

epubdos : Afghanistan

Prepared for the U.S. Department of State

Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs

By TechMIS
www.TechMIS.com

Mobile User Copy

TO:	SCA & Staff
DATE:	Wednesday, January 3, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan

Taliban Accuse Tajik, Pakistani Citizens of Carrying out Attacks in Afghanistan (The Diplomat)

The Diplomat [1/2/2024 10:18 AM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Negative]
In reviewing the Taliban government’s security achievements in 2023 on December 31, Afghanistan’s acting Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid said that any attacks that did occur were “all carried out by foreigners, especially the citizens of Tajikistan.”

“Dozens of Tajikistan citizens have been killed in our operations and dozens of others have been arrested. Also, in the second step, Pakistani citizens have been involved in organizing many attacks,” Mujahid said, according to TOLO News. The defense minister did not offer concrete figures, though he did say that more than 20 Pakistani citizens had been killed in Taliban operations and dozens of others captured.

Mujahid meanwhile heralded the efforts fo the Taliban’s security forces, proclaiming that, as TOLO News reported, “the security forces have stopped 99 percent of smuggling of money, precious stones and currencies from inside Afghanistan in the past year” and had seized “tens of thousands of weapons.” He also claimed that there had been a 90 percent decrease in Islamic State attacks over the course of 2023.

The Taliban defense official accused unspecified neighboring countries of being the real centers of production, sale, and smuggling of weapons — accusations that have been lobbed against the Taliban, which arguably inherited quite a stockpile from the previous Republic government upon its collapse in August 2021.

Mujahid also rejected Pakistani claims that Afghan territory is a safe haven for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP or the Pakistani Taliban), calling those complaints “baseless.”

The veracity of Mujahid’s statements aside (he did not provide any details or evidence, per se), the sharp accusations fit into a sustained pattern of tension between Afghanistan and two of its neighbors: Pakistan and Tajikistan. Curiously, while Pakistani officials — notably then-Prime Minister Imran Khan — welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, relations between the two countries have become strained, with both sides lobbing accusations against the other of harboring their enemies. In November, Pakistan began a massive effort to deport “illegal migrants,” most of whom are Afghan.

When it comes to Tajikistan, Dushanbe has been the most hesitant to engage of Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors. As Shanthie Mariet D’Souza outlined in a mid-December article, despite some forms of engagement — such as the reopening of border markets in September and the transfer of the Afghan consulate in Khorog into Taliban hands — Dushanbe remains “the strongest critic of the Taliban in Central Asia.” Tajikistan, most notably, hosts a number of former Republic officials and members of the Afghan National Resistance Front (NRF). In November, Dushanbe hosted the Herat Security Dialogue (HSD) which drew together a wide array of Afghans, again many from the former Republic government and many who stand staunchly in opposition to the Taliban.

Dushanbe has not responded to Mujahid’s statement.

The Taliban in Afghanistan — even before its full return to power — put Jamaat Ansarullah (sometimes referred to as the Tajik Taliban, and banned in Tajikistan as a terrorist group in 2012) in charge of the border. The group remains the lead security force in five districts bordering Tajikistan and sits as a major point of contention. In August, for example. Tajik officials claimed to have stopped an attempted terrorist attack, with the purported Jamaat Ansarullah attackers crossing over the border from Afghanistan after having been trained and armed. The alleged attack was “deliberately planned by the intelligence services” the Tajik State Committee for National Security said.

In May 2023, journalist Franz J. Marty embedded with the Taliban forces assigned to guard the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border. He found that border forces were ill-equipped, overworked, and underpaid (if they are paid at all; many reported receiving no salary). Conversations with troops also revealed a heavy sense of paranoia about Afghan resistance forces and/or Tajik militants slipping across the border.

“Most Taliban, like the ones who felt shadowed by Tajik patrols on the other side of the river, are convinced that everyone is actively plotting to overthrow their Emirate,” Marty concluded. “Accordingly, the Taliban are set to continue patrolling their borders, looking for mostly imagined enemies.”

As the Taliban government tries to portray itself as a competent security guarantor in Afghanistan, this requires a narrative that can externalize any and all attacks that do occur. At the same time, Afghanistan’s neighbors have many of the same complaints about Taliban-run Afghanistan. Somehow, the enemies are always from elsewhere.

Pakistan

Ex Pakistan PM Imran Khan charged with contempt of electoral watchdog - lawyer (Reuters)

Reuters [1/3/2024 5:46 AM, Ariba Shahid, 11975K, Negative]
Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan was charged on Wednesday with contempt of the electoral commission, his lawyer Naeem Haider Panjutha wrote on social media platform X.

The 71-year-old former cricket star has been embroiled in political and legal battles since he was ousted as prime minister in April 2022. He has not been seen in public since he was jailed for three years in August for unlawfully selling state gifts while in office from 2018 to 2022.

"The Election Commission indicted Imran Khan in the absence of lawyers," wrote Panjutha.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) initiated contempt proceedings against Khan and other former leaders of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

Khan, who is widely seen as the country’s most popular leader, denies all charges against him and says he is being by hounded by the powerful military, which wants to keep him out of the polls. The military denies this.

Last week, a high court refused to suspend Khan’s disqualification from contesting the elections.

The Road to Power in Pakistan Runs Through the Military (Foreign Policy)

Foreign Policy [1/2/2024 7:05 AM, Allison Meakem, 315K, Positive]
Pakistan had been due to hold a vote last October but has now settled on Feb. 8 as a polling date.

The Pakistani Constitution stipulates that an election be held within 60 days of the parliament’s dissolution on a regular schedule and within 90 days if the body is suspended before its term is up. Then-Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ended his term and stepped down on Aug. 9, 2023, handing control to a caretaker administration. But just before triggering the election countdown, Sharif’s government unveiled new census results; these are used to determine Pakistan’s voting constituencies. The country’s top electoral commission said it needed more time to redraw electoral maps based on the updated figures, and the contest was pushed to February.

“The opposition and its supporters believe the timing of the new census results was suspicious, and that it was used as a pretext to delay the elections to give the military more time to influence the electoral environment,” FP’s Michael Kugelman, the author of South Asia Brief, wrote in an email. The Pakistani military is known to be the country’s main power broker. As former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani explained in Foreign Policy last August, “[t]he military says it is not involved in politics, but politicians are still pursuing the generals’ approval.”

In April 2022, the military fell afoul with then-Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan, whose litany of legal woes rival those of former U.S. President Donald Trump in their complexity, has been in jail since August 2023 and is technically barred from politics for five years. But Khan and his backers call the many charges against him politically motivated. In late December 2023, Pakistan’s Supreme Court approved Khan’s bail in one case, and an Islamabad court stayed another trial until Jan. 11, yet the ex-leader remains locked up related to other charges. “Khan’s cult-like supporters regard him as a figure who can save Pakistan from corrupt, dynastic politics,” Haqqani wrote.

Now, a defiant Khan is still leading his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party’s list heading into next month’s vote. Authorities briefly sought to ban the PTI from printing its logo, a cricket bat, on ballots before a Peshawar court struck down the move. (Pakistan has high illiteracy rates, and logos help voters identify the correct candidate.) The state’s attempt to scrub the image may have been a response to the PTI’s popularity: In a Gallup Pakistan poll conducted over June and July 2023, Khan earned a 60 percent approval rating, and 42 percent of respondents expressed an intention to vote for the PTI, much higher shares than were garnered by any other politician or party. The center-right Pakistan Muslim League (PML) earned 20 percent, and the center-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) followed with 12 percent. The PML and PPP are traditionally rivals but formed a marriage of convenience to oust Khan in 2022.

The brief tenure of the PML-PPP unity government was less chaotic than the three-and-a-half years that Pakistan experienced under Khan, but the country still faced its fair share of challenges. In addition to wrestling continued agitations from Khan and his supporters, Pakistan experienced “biblical” flooding in August 2022 and found itself in economic trouble. (Islamabad under its current caretaker government finally approved a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund in November, a prospect Khan had spurned.) There’s also been an uptick in xenophobia against Afghan migrants. Last fall, the caretaker government—likely at the behest of the military—oversaw the expulsion of 1.7 million Afghans from Pakistan.

Shehbaz Sharif is not running as the PML’s top candidate in this election, however. That distinction goes to his brother, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who recently returned to Pakistan after spending four years in exile in the United Kingdom. Khan and Nawaz Sharif may be bitter foes, but they have one thing in common: Nawaz Sharif is also banned from politics thanks to a 14-year corruption sentence. But Pakistani authorities said Nawaz Sharif could not be arrested until he appears in court, and the PML successfully appealed his conviction and sentences, making him eligible for next month’s elections.

Even though Nawaz Sharif was once ousted in a military-backed coup, observers agree that the Pakistan Armed Forces appear to be once again backing the PML. That’s bad news both for Khan and PPP head Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who most recently served as Shahbaz Sharif’s foreign minister. Kugelman said “the electoral playing field won’t be level,” with the PML enjoying a “big advantage.” Pakistan’s electoral commission has already been accused of redrawing electoral maps with the new census data to favor the PML.

Even so, public opinion seems to be tilting in the PML’s direction: In the Gallup poll, a plurality of voters said they would cast ballots for the PML, rather than the PPP, if Khan’s PTI did not participate in the next elections.

The weeks ahead are likely to feature a great deal of political and legal machinations from all of Pakistan’s major parties. In mid-December 2023, Pakistan’s Supreme Court announced that it would form a committee to adjudicate political bans—a move that Kugelman wrote “seems to pave the way for Nawaz Sharif … to run for office.” Lo and behold, the PML announced just weeks later that Nawaz Sharif would be its top candidate in the Feb. 8 vote.

If elections go ahead, Pakistanis will vote for all 342 seats in the National Assembly, the lower House of parliament, most of which are in single-member constituencies. The remaining seats are awarded through a proportional, party-based allocation system. That is, if the military approves.

Pakistan women protesting disappearances tap anti-establishment mood (Nikkei Asia)

Nikkei Asia [1/3/2024 4:19 AM, Adnan Aamir, 11975K, Negative]
A protest movement led by women from the Pakistani province of Balochistan has turned a spotlight on the country’s record of enforced disappearances, aided in part by the anti-establishment message of ousted former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

While most people in Islamabad were celebrating the new year, over 300 were holding a sit-in, camping outside the capital’s National Press Club, demanding accountability for disappearances and alleged extrajudicial killings in the restive southwestern province.

The movement -- led by a volunteer group called the Baloch Yakjehti Committee -- took shape in the last week of November after Balaach Mola Bakhsh was killed in the Balochistan city of Turbat. His relatives alleged that he was extrajudicially killed by the Counter Terrorism Department of the Balochistan Police. The government denies this and claims the 24-year-old was a terrorist -- part of a long-running separatist insurgency against Pakistani security forces.

What started as a sit-in in Turbat became a 1,600-kilometer march to Islamabad via Quetta. A convoy of 200 people, mostly women, reached the capital on Dec. 20.

There, they were met with water cannons in frigid weather, before being arrested. After they were released on court orders, the government sought to send them back to Balochistan. But a groundswell of domestic support and international pressure put the authorities in an awkward position.

The embassies of the European Union and Norway in Islamabad expressed concern over the way the Baloch demonstrators were manhandled by Islamabad police. Nobel peace laureate Malala Yousafzai and climate activist Greta Thunberg expressed solidarity with the protesters.

Some citizens blocked buses intended to take the protesters back. Eventually, the authorities gave in, and on Dec. 23 the group organized its sit-in camp in Islamabad.

Feeling the heat as Pakistan prepares for a general election on Feb. 8, when the powerful military establishment looks likely to obtain its preferred outcome, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar dubbed supporters of the movement "advocates of terrorists in Balochistan."

On Tuesday night, Islamabad police seized control of entry to and exit from the camp. They have limited the inflow of food and quilts in an attempt to force protesters to pack up and leave. On Wednesday, a shutter-down strike was being observed in many parts of Balochistan in solidarity with the demonstrators.

In any case, the women have succeeded in refocusing national attention on the issue of disappearances, otherwise referred to as the "missing persons issue." According to Pakistan’s Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, 9,000 cases have been registered, out of which 2,000 are still pending.

Mahrang Baloch, 28, is leading the movement. A medical doctor by training, she started protesting in 2009, when her father was allegedly picked up by the government. In 2011, his body was recovered.

The group’s immediate demand is to quash police cases against all protesters in Islamabad. But that is only the beginning.

"A fact-finding mission headed by the United Nations Working Group should be sent to Balochistan for a detailed investigation of all forcibly disappeared Baloch [people], and those in custody must be released immediately," Mahrang Baloch told Nikkei Asia. She further demanded that the counterterrorism police in Balochistan should confess that it killed Balach Mola Baksh in a staged encounter.

Pushing back, Jan Achakzai, Balochistan’s interim information minister, told the media that the Baloch protesters were serving others’ agenda. He also called their demands unconstitutional.

Asad Toor, a political analyst in Islamabad, said the group’s charismatic leadership has helped increase public support.

Mahrang Baloch, however, stressed it is the message that is resonating. "The country is being ruled through violence, and we are opposing it," she said. "Hence, we have the support of [the] people."

Another factor might be at play: the anti-army sentiment stirred up by Imran Khan. After his removal from office in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, Khan became openly critical of military involvement in politics, at least until he was jailed for alleged corruption in August. When Khan was previously detained in May, rare outbursts of open hostility sprang up outside of army installations.

Experts say the establishment has gone to great lengths to sideline the still-popular Khan and his party ahead of the election.

Tania Baloch, a veteran Balochistan journalist, suggests the anti-army mood sparked by Khan has created an environment conducive to highlighting injustices in the province.

"The increased usage of social media for political dissent has spread awareness about the issue of enforced disappearances all over Pakistan," she said.

Kiyya Baloch, an analyst covering militancy in Balochistan, agrees that in Islamabad the broad support for protesters is related to Imran Khan’s anti-establishment stance.

Experts argue that the government has done itself no favors with its handling of the matter.

"Due to the government’s inaction on the missing persons issue, the protest movement is reaching new heights of popularity, which represents the pulse of society," said Shahzada Zulfiqar, a senior political analyst based in Quetta, Balochistan’s largest city.

Despite the cold weather and cold shoulder from the government, the protesters are determined to keep up the pressure.

"This movement shall continue in the form of a sit-in at the National Press Club, Islamabad, till our demands are met," Mahrang Baloch said before the latest police move.

India

India’s Food-Security Problem Is Also the World’s (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Journal [1/2/2024 5:30 AM, Megha Mandavia, 810K, Neutral]
Climate change is already beginning to reshape global agriculture. India, the world’s most populous country, looks particularly vulnerable: not just because of extreme weather, but because of government price controls.

Fixing the problem is becoming more urgent, both for India and the world—because India is a big food exporter, too. But politics makes that very difficult.

In early December, India banned overseas shipments of onions until March in an effort to tame domestic prices. That is on top of export restrictions on rice, wheat and sugar already imposed over the past 18 months. And since India is the world’s largest rice exporter, second-largest sugar and onion exporter, and a significant wheat producer, the bans are wreaking havoc globally. Thai rice prices had risen 14% and Vietnam rice prices had risen 22% from July levels by October, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute. Malaysia and the Philippines introduced their own measures to damp rising prices after India’s curbs on rice exports in July.

Climate change will almost certainly pose a major problem for India’s food supply. India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare recently estimated that, in the absence of adaptation measures, rain-fed rice yields could fall 20% by 2050.

But domestic agricultural policies are almost as big a problem.

At present, the government sets price floors for two dozen crops, guarantees purchases of certain agricultural products, and provides subsidies to farmers for fertilizers, electricity and transportation. All that might seem positive for food security, but on net it probably hampers investment and food supply growth. Price floors mean that supply might sometimes exceed final buyers’ willingness to pay during slow times, leading to wastage. And restrictions on exports artificially depress domestic prices when global demand is hot.

The government’s own investigations have found that Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee laws, which regulate the trade of farmers’ produce by providing licenses to buyers, commission agents and private markets, lead to cartelization and reduced competition.

According to a recent report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, net regulatory costs for agricultural producers in India were equal to a full 15% of gross farm receipts from 2020 to 2022. The study stated that domestic producers have been implicitly taxed on average: Budgetary payments to farmers didn’t offset the price-depressing effect of complex domestic marketing regulations and trade policy measures.

India’s creaky agriculture infrastructure also needs work. According to the U.S. International Trade Administration, poor infrastructure in India is responsible for post-harvest losses of up to 40% for certain products.

Unfortunately, reforming the food-pricing system is politically perilous. Previous attempts to change domestic agricultural marketing regulations have been met with stiff resistance from farmers and political opponents, and coming general elections make any immediate relief unlikely.

India is the ninth-largest exporter of agricultural products in the world, according to the United Nations. It also has the most mouths to feed. That makes food security there a global issue—but the tangled politics of agricultural pricing in India mean that change could be slow.

India Truckers Strike Threatens Food, Fuel, Goods Supplies (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/2/2024 10:27 AM, Rakesh Sharma and Akriti Sharma, 5543K, Negative]
Truckers across India joined a nationwide strike against a new law imposing harsher punishment for hit-and-run offenses, leading to delays in the supply of goods and sparking fuel shortage fears.

Long queues outside petrol pumps in the states of Punjab and Madhya Pradesh were shown on TV news channels Tuesday, as people rushed to fill their tanks expecting fuel to run out. Pumps in the territory of Chandigarh restricted supplies as a precautionary measure, according to a statement by the local administration. Executives at India’s state-owned fuel retailers, who didn’t wish to be named as they aren’t authorized to speak to the media, told Bloomberg that the shortages were due to panic buying rather than supply chain disruptions.

Anantdeep Singh, a member of the All India Motor Transport Congress union and owner of the company Nav Bharat Goods Carriers, echoed the executives’ view. Since fuel is carried by heavy vehicles whose drivers may go on strike, there is panic buying because of the expectation of a shortage, he said.

The firm, which operates 80 trucks carrying a range of goods including medicines, stationery and pesticides is already experiencing a loss of revenue, Singh said. AIMTC estimates the loss of trade due to the ongoing strike is about 1 billion rupees ($12 million) per day, he added.

The truckers, which according to government data carry 70% of India’s domestic freight, launched the strike on Monday in protest against the newly enacted criminal law which extends the jail term for hit-and-run cases to a maximum of 10 years, from two at present.

Spokespeople at state-owned and private fuel retailers didn’t immediately reply to phone calls. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways didn’t respond to request for comment.

India’s Chandigarh city restricts fuel sales as transporters’ protest disrupts supply (Reuters)

Reuters [1/2/2024 8:30 AM, Sakshi Dayal, 5239K, Negative]
India’s northern city of Chandigarh imposed restrictions on the sale of petrol and diesel at fuel stations on Tuesday after a strike involving drivers of fuel tankers disrupted supply in the region, the local government said.

Drivers of trucks, buses, and tankers launched a three-day strike on Monday to protest a new law that prescribes punishment of up to 10 years’ imprisonment or a maximum of 700,000 rupees ($8,405) fine for those who run away without informing authorities after causing serious road accidents.

Protesters say the provision, which is part of a new criminal law that will replace the colonial-era Indian Penal Code (IPC), can lead to undue harassment of drivers, local media reported.

The IPC, in contrast, prescribes a punishment of up to two years for such an offence. The government is yet to notify a date for enforcement of the new law.

"Effective immediately, two-wheelers are limited to a maximum of 2 litres (maximum value of Rs 200) and four-wheelers are limited to 5 litres (maximum value of Rs 500) of fuel per transaction," the Chandigarh administration said in a statement on its website.

The curbs were imposed following long queues at fuel stations across the city spurred by panic buying.

A similar rush was seen at fuel stations in other parts of the country, including in the western state of Maharashtra and the southern state of Telangana, according to local media reports.

Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla is expected to meet the All India Motor Transport Congress - a group of transporters that is part of the protest - late on Tuesday evening to discuss the matter, reported Indian news agency ANI, in which Reuters has a minority stake.

India Truckers Call Off Strike After Talks With Modi Government (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/3/2024 12:20 AM, Akriti Sharma, 5.5M, Neutral]
A union of truck and bus operators in India has asked members to end their two-day-old strike after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government assured them that it will implement the new penalties in hit-and-run cases only after consultations.

“The truckers had gone on strike on their own in protest against the penalties,” All India Motor Transport Congress Secretary Naveen Kumar Gupta said. “We have appealed to them to call off the strike as Home Ministry has agreed to hold discussion on the new laws.”

The truckers, which carry 70% of India’s domestic freight according to government data, launched the strike on Monday in protest against the newly enacted law, which extends the jail term for hit-and-run cases to a maximum of 10 years, from two at present.

“The government wants to point out that these new laws and provisions have not yet come into force,” the Ministry of Home Affairs said in a statement. The decision to impose new penalties will be “taken only after consultation with the All India Motor Transport Congress,” it said.

At least 3 killed, 12 injured in unrest in India’s Manipur state (Reuters)

Reuters [1/2/2024 10:02 AM, Zarir Hussain, 11975K, Negative]
At least three people were killed and 12, including seven security personnel, seriously injured in India’s restive northeastern state of Manipur in the last two days as sporadic violence continued in the region, officials said.

At least 180 people have died since fierce fighting broke out between members of the majority Meitei and minority Kuki communities in the state in May, following a court order suggesting privileges granted to Kukis also be extended to Meiteis.

Three people were killed and five injured when gunmen in camouflage fatigues opened fire in the Lilong area of Thoubal district on Monday. Separately, at least seven security personnel were critically injured in an ambush by foreign mercenaries on Tuesday, officials said.

The injured security personnel were part of a convoy travelling through the town of Moreh, bordering Maynmar, that was attacked with rocket-propelled grenades and other automatic weapons.

"Four police commandos and three BSF (Border Security Force) troopers are now in a critical condition," a police official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Manipur chief minister N Biren Singh said the assailants were suspected of being "Myanmar-based mercenaries", and added that the government "will not succumb to this kind of pressure".

There was no immediate word on the identities of the three people killed on Monday or the suspected identities of the assailants.

Authorities have re-imposed an indefinite curfew in Thoubal district and four other adjoining districts of Imphal East, Imphal West, Kakching and Bishnupur since late on Monday.

Manipur, bordering Myanmar, is among the smallest states in India with a population of 3.2 million.

Of its residents, 16% are Kukis, who live in the hills and receive economic benefits and quotas for government jobs and education, while 53% are Meiteis, who control the more prosperous lowlands.

India Proposes Tighter Rules for Dividend Payouts by Lenders (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/2/2024 9:26 AM, Preeti Singh, 5543K, Neutral]
India proposed a set of conditions that local lenders and overseas banks operating in the country must meet before paying shareholders dividends, to overhaul two-decade old regulations.

Lenders have to meet specific capital requirements for three financial years before giving out dividends, according to a statement on the proposed rules from the Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday. The banks will also have to meet other conditions, including keeping net bad loans at less than 6% of the total for the year and creating adequate provisions for impaired assets before a dividend payout, according to the RBI.

The rules will be effective for dividend declarations from the financial year starting April 2024 onwards, and RBI has sought comments on the proposed regulations by Jan. 31, according to the statement. The new proposal also covers foreign banks, who, since 2003, have been allowed to remit profits and dividends to their head offices without the RBI’s approval.

Overseas lenders who meet the new rules for capital requirements and bad loans can still remit part of their profits from Indian operations without prior approval, provided their accounts are audited, RBI said. In case of any excess remittance, the head office of the foreign bank has to “immediately make good the shortfall,” according to the rules.

India’s Adani wins court relief on scrutiny after Hindenburg attack (Reuters)

Reuters [1/2/2024 4:18 AM, Arpan Chaturvedi and Jayshree P. Upadhyay, 5.2M, Neutral]
India’s Supreme Court on Wednesday said Adani Group does not need to face more investigations beyond the current scrutiny of the market regulator, a major relief for the conglomerate hit hard by a U.S. short-seller’s allegations of wrongdoing.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been probing the Adani group, led by billionaire Gautam Adani, after Hindenburg Research in January 2023 alleged improper use of tax havens and stock manipulation by the group.

The Adani Group denied those allegations, but Hindenburg’s report still chopped $150 billion off its stock market value. Though some investor confidence returned in recent months as Adani won the backing of bankers and investors, the Hindenburg saga and the regulatory scrutiny have weighed on the group’s business dealings and reputation.

The Supreme Court, which was ruling on cases brought by public interest litigants seeking a special investigation team to probe the matter, said "the facts of this case do not warrant" such a change, even though the court had the powers to transfer the investigation.

The verdict signals there will not be increased regulatory or legal risk on the Adani group beyond the current SEBI investigation.

Reflecting that view, shares of various Adani Group companies rose, with Adani Energy Solutions (ADAI.NS) up 9.1%, Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS) surging 7.1%, Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS) jumping 5.5% and the flagship business Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) rising 2.6%.

The court, which was overseeing the SEBI probe, also said there was no need for it to order any changes in the country’s disclosure rules for offshore funds. Hindenburg had alleged Adani’s offshore shareholders were used to violate certain SEBI rules, even though the company maintained it complies with all laws.

After the Supreme Court ruling, Gautam Adani said on social media platform X that the court’s judgment shows truth has prevailed and the group’s "contribution to India’s growth story will continue."

"Post this verdict global investors will have more confidence in investing in the shares of the company," said Deven Choksey, managing director of KRChoksey Shares and Securities Pvt Ltd, a broker.

The regulator had previously informed the Supreme Court that it would take appropriate action based on the outcome of its investigations. The court on Wednesday gave SEBI three months to complete its investigations.

The Supreme Court on Wednesday also said that it does not need to intervene in the current regulations governing offshore investors of Indian companies. SEBI tightened those regulations in June by making disclosures more stringent to bring clarity to opaque corporate structures.

Under Indian law, every company needs to have 25% of its shares held by public shareholders to avoid price manipulation, but Hindenburg alleged that some of Adani’s offshore shareholders were used to violate this rule. Adani has said it complies with all laws.

"The procedure followed in arriving at the current shape of the regulations does not suffer from irregularity," the court said on Wednesday, while backing SEBI’s regulatory position on foreign portfolio disclosures.

India’s ONGC Videsh to get some oil from Venezuela in lieu of $600 mln dividend (Reuters)

Reuters [1/3/2024 2:18 AM, Nidhi Verma, 5.2M, Neutral]
Venezuela has agreed to give some oil to India’s ONGC Videsh to help it recoup its pending $600 million dividend for a stake in a project in the South American nation, India’s oil secretary said on Wednesday.

Indian refiners have resumed purchase of Venezuelan oil following the easing of U.S. sanctions on the South American country last year.

ONGC Videsh (OVL), the overseas investment arm of India’s top explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.NS), holds 40% stake in the San Cristobal field in eastern Venezuela’s Orinoco Heavy Oil belt, with Venezuela’s state oil company PdVSA holding the remainder.

"They have agreed to give us some oil in lieu of OVL’s dues. We are waiting for (lifting) dates from them," Oil Secretary Pankaj Jain told reporters in New Delhi.

The company earlier told Reuters in an email on Wednesday that it was exploring options including allocation of oil by PdVSA to repatriate the dividend.

San Cristobal project owes dividend of around $600 million to OVL, the company said.

"Post easing of US sanction, OVL is in continuous dialogue with PdVSA for recovery of accrued dividend by various mechanisms including allocation of crude cargoes in lieu of accrued dividend," it said.

India turns to Saudi as purchases of Russian oil fall in Dec (Reuters)

Reuters [1/2/2024 6:11 AM, Nidhi Verma and Mohi Narayan, 5239K, Neutral]
India increased imports of Saudi oil in December as payment problems drove its Russian oil buys to an 11-month low, with at least five cargoes of the sweet Sokol variant heading to other locations, data from vessel tracking agencies showed.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), which was set to get the Sokol oil, had to withdraw from its inventory and buy from the Middle East to make up the shortfall, sources told Reuters last month.

Top refiner IOC is the only state-run firm with an annual deal to buy a variety of Russian grades, including Sokol, from Russian oil major Rosneft.

India’s oil imports from Russia in December declined between 16% and 22%, according to Reuters calculation on the basis of data from flow tracking agencies Vortexa, Kpler and LSEG.

Its imports of Saudi oil, rose by about 4%, however, data from Kpler and Vortexa showed.

LSEG data shows India’s monthly Russian oil imports declining by 22% to 1.21 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, while Kpler shows a drop of 16% to 1.39 million bpd.

"Perhaps it’s still too early to write off India’s appetite for the Sakhalin grade (Sokol)," said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, adding that three new Sokol cargoes on the NS Antarctic, Jaguar and Vostochny Prospect were heading for India.

Aframax ships NS Century, NS Commander, Sakhalin Island, Lityny Prospect and Krymsk; and a very large crude carrier Nellis carrying Russian Sokol oil for IOC were sailing for the Strait of Malacca, Kpler and LSEG ship tracking data showed.

The NS Century faced sanctions imposed by the United States in November for the sale of Russian oil at a price above the cap of $60 a barrel fixed by the G7 grouping of nations and had been floating near Colombo since.

"China appears to be the final solution for some cargoes," said Katona.

Here is a table of India’s preliminary imports from its top three suppliers. Volumes are in 1,000 bpd.

[Editorial note: consult source link for table]

Russian oil tankers bound for India are turning around amid scuffle over payments to Moscow (Business Insider)

Business Insider [1/2/2024 9:40 AM, Jennifer Sor, 13914K, Neutral]
Russian oil ships drifting near India’s shores have begun to turn away amid unresolved payment disputes between the two countries.

According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, five oil tankers carrying Sokol oil, which have been idling close to India and Sri Lanka for about a month, are now headed eastward toward the Malacca Straight.

Another Russian ship — the NS Century — is still drifting near the shores of Sri Lanka. The tanker has been idling for over a month as Indian officials mull over whether to let the ship unload its cargo, Bloomberg previously reported.

The turnaround comes as Indian refiners are paying for oil with Russia in dirhams, the currency of the United Arab Emirates, people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week. But a unit of Rosneft, one of Russia’s state-run oil giants, hasn’t been able to open a bank account in the UAE, meaning it’s unable to accept payment, sources added.

As of October, India had at least seven oil shipments from Russia that hadn’t been paid, Reuters originally reported.

India is also under pressure to remain on good terms with the US, which sanctioned the NS Century late in 2023 for trading oil with Russia above the $60 per barrel price cap. Those restrictions are part of the West’s attempt to ramp up pressure on Russia’s energy revenue that it is using to fund its war against Ukraine.

India has become one of Russia’s largest oil customers since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Russia now exports nearly all of its oil to China and India, Russia’s deputy prime minister said last week – though shipments to India have recently stalled on payment issues. Russian oil exports in India cratered in December, with Indian refiners receiving no Sokol crude that month at all, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.

Space race to heat up in 2024 as Japan, China and India reach for the stars (Nikkei Asia)

Nikkei Asia [1/2/2024 11:11 PM, Mitsuru Obe, 293K, Neutral]
After another year of U.S. aeronautics company SpaceX dominating headlines about the industry, 2024 promises to bring an uptick in public and private space activity from countries such as China, India and Japan.

Chinese launch startup LandSpace Technology plans to launch reusable rockets in 2025 in an approach that closely mirrors SpaceX, while India aims to begin a series of flight tests for an eventual crewed spaceflight in 2025. On Dec. 4, India laid out a vision of building a space station by 2035 and sending the first Indian to the moon by 2040.

Meanwhile, Japan aims to become the fifth nation to land a spacecraft on the lunar surface this month, following in India’s footsteps on Aug. 23, when Chandrayaan-3 touched down on the moon. India says it has brought the spacecraft that took Chandrayaan-3 to the moon back to Earth’s orbit in preparation for a possible mission to return lunar samples.

Japan has a long history of space development. In 1970, it became the fourth country to put a satellite into orbit after the Soviet Union, the U.S. and France. Today, however, China and India loom large.

"I personally believe India will emerge as a bigger competitor to Japan than China," said Shogo Yakame, business consultant at Nomura Research Institute, citing India’s vibrant commercial space sector.

To showcase its technological prowess, Japan will attempt the world’s first "pinpoint" landing on the lunar surface on Jan. 20. It aims to have its Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM) touch down within 100 meters of a target site, an area neighboring the Shioli Crater near the Sea of Nectar, just south of the lunar equator.

For precision landing, SLIM uses a radar altimeter and a vision-based navigation system that monitors crater patterns and compares them with map information in real time. The system is also used to avoid rocks and other obstacles and find a smooth surface. The 2.4-meter-tall lander is designed to fall onto its side once it touches down on a slope to stabilize its position.

The capability of pinpoint landing and the information that SLIM obtains about surface conditions will be used in future lunar missions, including a joint India-Japan exploration for water resources in polar regions in 2025 and the development of a pressurized rover by Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for use by astronauts on the moon. The two companies are expected to start working on developing an actual model in 2024 for launch in 2029.

The growing competition comes as SpaceX launched nearly 100 rockets in 2023, lifting commercial space activity to new heights. On Nov. 2, CEO Elon Musk said in a post on social media platform X that the company’s Starlink satellite phone service has achieved a cash-flow breakeven. The service is based on a constellation of more than 5,500 satellites and provides broadband connection anywhere on Earth. The service gained broader recognition after it helped Ukrainian forces fight against the Russian invasion.

"No one thought such a service would ever be possible," said Yakame, the business consultant, citing the huge cost of building, launching, operating and maintaining so many satellites and the difficulty of connecting with fast-moving satellites in low Earth orbit. A similar service was tried by Iridium during the 1990s and failed, Yakame said.

"Space activity has gone through stages, from development of launch vehicles to use of satellites and to utilization of the space environment such as in space stations," Seiji Izumisawa, CEO of MHI, said in a recent media roundtable. "Commercialization will be the next stage."

On Feb. 15, Japan will launch what it hopes to be a competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9: the H3 next-generation rocket. The planned attempt follows a failure in its maiden flight on March 7 due to an electronics issue. MHI, the contractor for the H3, says the rocket is intended to match the Falcon 9 at least in terms of cost, if not in frequency of use. MHI envisages six launches a year, at the moment.

SpaceX has become the go-to provider for businesses looking to launch satellites after Russia’s Soyuz rocket became unavailable following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Traditional rocket makers, such as MHI, ArianeGroup and United Launch Alliance, have struggled to introduce rival offerings.

In 2023, the U.S. made 103 launches, compared to China’s 61 and Russia’s 18, according to data from Space-Track.org, a satellite information platform operated by the U.S. Department of Defense. "The U.S. and China are already dominant players in space and they are expanding their dominance," said Atsushi Murakami, president at business consultancy Satellite Business Network. "Will Japan be able to open a crack?"

Unlike the U.S., India or China, Japan does not have the financial resources to carry out major space missions on its own. Developing technologies and becoming an indispensable partner is its main strategy.

"We don’t have huge resources. But we are good at packing many things into a tiny space," said MHI’s Izumisawa, explaining about the skills behind the development of a science experiment module in the International Space Station, in which Izumisawa was personally involved as an engineer. "Japan should try to make a contribution only it can make, based on its own unique capabilities."

In the launch business, one of the focuses is on reusability, an approach pioneered by SpaceX. The company successfully landed a rocket booster after launch in 2015 and launched a recycled rocket booster in 2017. SpaceX is now developing the massive Starship cruise vessel, which is designed to provide transport for human missions to the moon and Mars, and features rapid reusability: Once a Starship comes back from space, it can be refueled and be ready to launch again in a short period of time.

SpaceX remains the only commercial operator of reusable rockets, but China’s LandSpace, which made its first successful satellite launch in December, says it will launch a reusable rocket in 2025.

The LandSpace rocket will use methane as fuel, just like Starship. Methane-based fuel is drawing attention because it could potentially be produced on Mars with local materials such as carbon dioxide and water from ice, making return trips from the red planet more feasible. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and MHI are also developing a methane-fueled rocket for a possible launch around 2030.

In May, China unveiled a vision of putting Chinese astronauts on the moon by 2030. "Sending humans to the moon will involve risks," said Murakami, the space consultant. "China has been developing capabilities one by one."

NSB

Sheikh Hasina once fought for democracy in Bangladesh. Her critics say she now threatens it (AP)

AP [1/2/2024 11:01 PM, Krutika Pathi and Julhas Alam, 6902K, Negative]
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was Bangladesh’s opposition leader in 2007, when hundreds of troops raided her home and took her to a court in the capital of Dhaka, where she was arrested on extortion charges.

Hasina, who had served as premier in 1996-2001, slammed the charges as a conspiracy to keep her from running in upcoming polls. She was fighting for the rights of her people, she said at the time, in a Bangladesh trapped in a state of emergency under a military-backed interim government.

She was given a choice: leave the country or stay in jail, according to a close associate. She opted to stay — 11 months later, she was released and in 2008, she was reelected prime minister.

Today, she is the longest-serving leader in the history of Bangladesh, a predominantly Muslim nation of over 160 million people strategically located between India and Myanmar, and is set to tighten her grip on power in Sunday’s general election. The vote follows Hasina’s 15-year-rule that saw her turn from a leader fighting for democracy to, critics say, one of its biggest threats.

Hasina’s main rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, is boycotting the Jan. 7 polls, saying her government cannot ensure a fair vote. That sets the stage for the 76-year-old premier to secure her fourth consecutive and fifth overall term in office.

Her supporters say Hasina and her Awami League have given them a new Bangladesh. Where there were frequent power cuts, there is now industry. More girls are going to school, development projects are humming and the stability she brought has staved off military coups that have shaken the young nation’s turbulent history.

In the middle are disenchanted voters who see little chance of changing the status quo.

HOW IT ALL BEGAN

Hasina’s political life was shaped by the Aug. 15, 1975, military coup and assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujib Rahman, the first leader of independent Bangladesh.

That fateful night, while 28-year-old Hasina was in Germany with her younger sister, a group of army officers burst into the family’s Dhaka home and killed her parents, three other siblings and the household staff — 18 people in all.

Some say the brutal act pushed her to consolidate unprecedented power. It was also what motivated her throughout her political career, analysts say.

“Hasina has one very powerful quality as a politician — and that is to weaponize trauma,” said Avinash Paliwal, a senior lecturer specializing in South Asian strategic affairs at SOAS University of London.

To Hasina, her father was the founder of independent Bangladesh after its forces, aided by India, defeated Pakistan in 1971. At the heart of her ambitions was to create the nation he envisioned, according to a source who worked closely with Hasina.

“She felt her father’s work was cut short, and that only she could complete it,” they told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with the media.

After the assassination, Hasina lived for years in exile in India, then made her way back to Bangladesh and took over the helm of Awami League. But the military rulers had her in and out of house detention all through the 1980s until, after general elections in 1996, she became prime minister for the first time.

TWO WOMEN, TWO PARTIES

What followed was a decadeslong power struggle between Hasina and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, now ailing and under house arrest.

The two women ran the country alternatively for years in a bitter rivalry that polarized Bangladesh politics. Hasina has often accused the BNP of courting hard-line extremists that her party, which calls itself moderate and secular, had worked to stamp out, while Zia’s BNP claims the Awami League is using oppressive tactics to stay in power.

Analysts, however, say that while they project different ideologies, both parties are tainted by a history of electoral violence and politics of retribution.

Recently, Hasina’s government accused the BNP of arson and sabotage after a fire on a passenger train killed four people in December, claiming the opposition was trying to create chaos ahead of the election. The BNP denied the accusation.

YEARS OF TURMOIL

Hasina’s party lost the 2001 general election, after which she again became the leader of the opposition. Political violence, unrest and military interventions marked the following years until she was reelected in 2008.

This time, she fixed her sights on the economy and built infrastructure previously unseen in Bangladesh. A strong electricity grid that reaches far-flung villages; big-ticket projects such as highways, rail lines and ports. The country’s garment industry became one of the world’s most competitive.

Abdul Halim, a rickshaw puller in Dhaka, says he is not a supporter of the prime minister, but “Hasina gave us electricity.”

“I thought my family would never have power at home. Now my entire village has electricity,” he said.

The development gains sparked other advances — girls were educated on par with boys, and an increasing swell of women joined the workforce. Those close to her describe Hasina as being very hands-on and passionate about uplifting women and poor people. Her supporters also credit her with neutralizing a growing threat of Islamic militancy.

According to Mohammad A. Arafat, an Awami League lawmaker in Dhaka, what Hasina has done for Bangladesh’s economic development “has been phenomenal.”

SUNDAY’S VOTE

Ahead of the election, Hasina flaunted some of her signature achievements, such as Dhaka’s metro or the country’s longest bridge, which she inaugurated in 2021. She has cast herself as the leader of an impoverished nation aspiring to become an upper-middle-income country by 2031.

“Bangladesh will never look back again,” Hasina said in 2023. “It will continue marching to be a smart, developed and prosperous country.”

But the recent global economic slowdown has not spared Bangladesh, exposing cracks in its economy that have triggered labor unrest and dissatisfaction with the government.

Mohammed Shohid, a driver in Dhaka, said the government has failed to stop price hikes of essential goods — prices of beans and tomatoes have nearly doubled in the past two years. “We cannot afford them anymore,” he said.

Hasina’s critics say her government has used harsh tools to muzzle dissent, shrink press freedoms and curtail civil society. Rights groups cite forced disappearances of critics. The government rejects the accusations.

In the 2018 election, an AL-led alliance won 96% of the parliament seats amid widespread allegations of vote-rigging, which authorities denied. In 2014, all major opposition parties boycotted the vote.

The BNP says about 20,000 of its members have been arrested in recent months on trumped-up charges ahead of Sunday’s vote, and tens of thousands of their supporters have rallied on the streets, with some protests turning violent.

With Zia under house arrest and other party leaders behind bars or in exile, observers say Hasina’s next term is practically guaranteed.

An array of independent candidates, including some from the AL itself, and a few smaller opposition parties are meant to project a veneer of competition but can actually do very little, critics say.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Hasina’s government insists the election is inclusive and fair, and has slammed the BNP for staying out of the race. But some analysts say the polls reflect the broader signs of trouble in Bangladesh’s democracy.

“There’s a history of an autocratic slide in Hasina’s decision-making,” said Paliwal, the university lecturer. “The current elections may be a final stamp on a full-blown one-party state.”

Voters like Dhaka resident Tamanna Rahman, 46, said the prime minister has no real challengers. “We do not have any option but to elect Hasina again.”

On the international stage, Hasina has cultivated ties with powerful countries and successfully balanced between rivals. She staunchly supports both India and China, even as the two Asian giants are locked in a stand-off over a disputed border region. In turn, Beijing and New Delhi have bankrolled a slew of Bangladesh’s infrastructure projects.

Hasina has also nurtured Bangladesh’s historic ties with Russia, shunned by much of the West over its invasion of Ukraine — even as she increasingly courts Western leaders.

“Say what you will about Hasina, but she has managed the great power competition very effectively,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

Hasina also won international praise when she gave shelter to Rohingya Muslims fleeing prosecution in neighboring Myanmar in 2017. Some 1.1 million Rohingya live in overcrowded refugee camps in Bangladesh today, and untold numbers of them perish on treacherous sea voyages for a chance of a better life elsewhere.

The United States — the biggest export market for Bangladeshi garments — announced visa restrictions in May on anyone disrupting the electoral process in Bangladesh. The announcement came after Washington expressed concerns over human rights violations and press freedoms in the country.

Analysts saw the move as an attempt to push Hasina to hold a fair election. She hit back, accusing the U.S. of trying to oust her from power.

But some of the pressure she has been under became evident during a recent news conference.

“If you talk too much, I will shut down everything,” she snapped, her salt-and-pepper hair covered by a traditional sari, her grey eyes fixed on the reporters.

Zillur Rahman, director at the Dhaka-based Center for Governance Studies, says Hasina — who survived 19 assassination attempts and racked up a long list of political enemies — has “no safe exit.”

“She is always under threat … and she has to be in power,” Rahman said.

Bangladesh’s tangles with Yunus, Nobel winner and microloan founder (Reuters)

Reuters [1/2/2024 7:46 AM, Ruma Paul and Sudipto Ganguly, 5239K, Negative]
A Bangladesh court has sentenced the country’s only Nobel laureate, Mohammad Yunus, to six months in jail over labour law violations, a crime he says he did not commit, days ahead of a Jan. 7 general election boycotted by the main opposition party.

Below is a summary of key facts in Yunus’ tangles with the law in Bangladesh, with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina often criticising the 83-year-old, who won the peace prize in 2006 for his work in making microloans accessible to the impoverished:

Yunus started a microfinance movement in late 1976, offering loans below $100 apiece to women in Bangladesh’s port city of Chittagong to help them escape poverty and vulnerability to loan sharks.

He and Grameen Bank, the rural-focused microfinance organization he founded, became Bangladesh’s first Nobel winner for providing small loans to the poor, a practice that spread to more than 100 nations from the United States to Uganda.

Yunus, a professor of economics who had been Grameen Bank’s managing director since 2000, was removed as head of the bank in 2011 by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government on the grounds he had stayed on past the legal retirement age of 60.

His popular image and fame came under fresh focus in 2007 as he attempted to form a political party, when the country was under a de-facto military government with a civilian outfit.

Despite his microfinance’s global success, there have been concerns such lenders charge excessive interest rates.

A Norwegian documentary alleged in 2010 that Grameen bank was dodging taxes. The documentary sparked criticism in Bangladesh and abroad of Yunus, whose bank has provided about $10 billion in small loans to people, most of them women, to fund businesses and help them escape poverty.

Lauded abroad by politicians and financiers, Yunus has been under attack from Hasina’s government since the documentary alleged that Grameen Bank was dodging taxes. Hasina, in 2011, famously called Yunus a "blood-sucker of the poor" and sharply criticised Grameen Bank’s microlending practices.

Yunus has denied financial irregularities and his supporters say he is being discredited by the government because of a feud with Hasina dating back to 2007, when he tried to setup a rival political party.

Yunus faces more than 100 cases in court, including two criminal charges over labour law violations and alleged corruption.

In September, Amnesty International called on the Bangladesh government to "immediately end their harassment and intimidation of Yunus". The rights group called Monday’s court verdict a blatant abuse of labour laws and political retaliation for his work.

190 global leaders, including former United States President Barack Obama and over 100 Nobel laureates, wrote an open letter in August to Hasina urging her to stop "continuous judicial harassment" of Yunus.

Reacting to Yunus’ conviction on Monday, Bangladesh’s Road Transport and Bridges Minister Obaidul Quader said no one was above the law.

Jail Sentence for Bangladesh Nobel Laureate Triggers Outrage (VOA)

VOA [1/2/2024 2:08 PM, Shaikh Azizur Rahman, 761K, Negative]
Rights activists and supporters of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus are expressing shock and anger over a six-month prison sentence handed to the economist on charges of violating labor laws.

Supporters of Yunus said that the case in which he was convicted Monday is politically motivated, while activists said that the Sheikh Hasina-led government began hounding him largely because the prime minister viewed him as a potential political threat.

"For his work among the poor, Professor Muhammad Yunus got a Nobel Prize, brought honor to Bangladesh and was hailed as a global social business hero,” said Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman of the Capital Punishment Justice Project, which has been documenting rights violations in Bangladesh for more than 15 years.

“Now using the judiciary, the government is harassing and humiliating him on frivolous grounds. The conviction is indeed a travesty of justice,” he told VOA.

Yunus is credited with lifting millions of people out of poverty through his pioneering use of microloans through Grameen Bank, which he founded in 1983 for those unable to procure loans from conventional banks. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his grassroots development work in Bangladesh.

At least 199 cases have been filed against Yunus since Hasina first became prime minister in 2009, mostly for allegedly violating labor laws and embezzling funds from some of the more than 50 social business firms that he had set up in the country.

This past Monday, Sheikh Merina Sultana, head of a labor court in Dhaka, pronounced Yunus and three Grameen Telecom colleagues guilty of labor law violations and sentenced each to six months in prison. All have been granted bail pending appeals.

The judge said in her verdict that the company violated labor laws by failing to make 67 temporary employees permanent, not creating welfare funds for employees and failing to distribute 5% of the company’s dividends to them.

In an interview with VOA’s Bangla service, government lawyer Khurshid Alam Khan, representing the Directorate of Factories and Institutions, maintained that the sentence was appropriate and that Yunus had been treated fairly, noting that Yunus remains free pending an appeal.

"The judge read out the main parts of the 84-page verdict where the violations of labor law were proved,” he said. “So, as the labor law violation is proved, he was sentenced by the court. ... He asked for bail and [was] immediately granted bail.”

Information and Broadcasting Minister Muhammad Hasan Mahmud also defended the ruling when speaking to reporters on Monday.

“And with due respect to Dr. Muhammad Yunus, I want to say that Dr. Yunus did not pay the dues of the workers for many years. Later, when the workers went to court, his company asked two labor leaders to manage this by bribing them,” he charged.

‘We are innocent’

Yunus said the charges were baseless.

“I founded the social business firms which were always aimed at specifically benefiting common people. I have not profited from any of the social business firms I set up in Bangladesh,” Yunus told local reporters in the court on Monday.

“All four of us in this case are innocent. Yet we have been pronounced guilty. You may call it justice if you want.”

Yunus’ lawyer, Abdullah Al-Mamun, told VOA that the alleged crimes with which Yunus and his colleagues were charged are civil offenses under Bangladesh’s Labour Act but that the government filed them as a criminal case, “strangely.”

“This is an unprecedented judgment. Due legal process was not followed in the case. The case was fast-tracked in a way that we were not given enough time to present our arguments in court. We were denied a fair trial and have therefore been denied justice,” Mamun told VOA.

“All charges were false. We see the case as an attempt to damage the Nobel laureate’s global reputation. … We will appeal against the verdict.”

Shortly after he won the Nobel Prize, Yunus planned to launch a new political party pledging to uproot corruption in the country. A few months later, however, he abandoned the idea of partaking in politics.

Yunnus viewed as potential rival

Hasina had praised Yunus’ development-related achievement and Grameen Bank initially, but later she changed her tone after he emerged as a potential political rival.

While the global community hailed him as a development hero and his popularity soared in Bangladesh, Hasina accused him of “sucking blood” from poor people, and in 2011, her administration launched a series of investigations against him.

Over the past years, Yunus has faced scores of civil suits and criminal cases related to the social business companies he founded.

In August, more than 170 global figures, including former U.S. President Barack Obama, former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and over 100 Nobel laureates, published a joint letter voicing concerns over the “continuous judicial harassment” of Yunus.

In a statement on Tuesday, Ban said, "A leader like Muhammad Yunus should be celebrated and free to contribute to improving the lives of people and the planet. The last place he should be is in prison. I call for an immediate reversal of this unjust verdict."

In September, Amnesty International said in a statement that the criminal proceeding against Yunus marked “a blatant abuse of labour laws and the justice system and a form of political retaliation for his work and dissent.”

Dhaka University professor and political commentator Asif Nazrul said that the highest tier of the ruling party, “which has an iron grip on the judiciary, relentlessly assassinated the character” of Yunus.

“Bangladesh does not have the best reputation for honoring labor rights and safety. Yet, compared to other labor law cases, the trial of Professor Yunus was conducted with unusual swiftness,” Nazrul told VOA.

“The ridiculously high number of cases filed against him during this government’s current regime clearly indicates the malicious intent against him.”

Jon Danilowicz, a retired U.S. diplomat who has served in Bangladesh, said Hasina has long “pursued a political and personal vendetta” against Yunus.

“This directed conviction is intended to send a message to any who would dare to stand up to her,” Danilowicz told VOA.

“She also hopes to demonstrate to her supporters that Western threats to hold her regime accountable won’t be followed up by action.”

Bangladesh elections: Why India matters across the border (BBC)

BBC [1/2/2024 5:35 PM, Anbarasan Ethirajan, 14192K, Neutral]
As Bangladesh gets ready to hold general elections on 7 January, the role of its giant neighbour India is being intensely discussed in the country.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is seeking a fourth consecutive term and her win looks inevitable as the main opposition parties are boycotting the election.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies say they have no faith that Ms Hasina will hold a free and fair election. They asked her to step down and allow the polls to be held under a neutral interim government - demands she rejected.

The Muslim-majority nation of about 170 million people, Bangladesh is almost surrounded on three sides - barring a 271km (168-mile)-long border with Myanmar in the southeast - by India.

For India, Bangladesh is not just a neighbouring country. It’s a strategic partner and a close ally, crucial to the security of its north-eastern states.

So, Indian policy makers argue that Delhi needs a friendly regime in Dhaka. Ms Hasina has forged close ties with India since she was first elected in 1996 and it’s no secret that Delhi wants to see her return to power.

Ms Hasina has always justified Dhaka’s close relationship with Delhi. During a visit to India in 2022, she said Bangladesh should not forget India, its government, people and armed forces as they stood beside the country during the independence war in 1971.

This backing for her Awami League party has triggered sharp criticism from the opposition BNP.

"India should support the people of Bangladesh and not a particular party. Unfortunately, Indian policy makers don’t want democracy in Bangladesh," Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, a senior BNP leader told the BBC.

Mr Rizvi said Delhi was "alienating the people of Bangladesh" by openly rooting for Ms Hasina and backing what he called a "dummy election".

An Indian foreign ministry spokesperson refused to comment on the BNP’s allegations on Delhi’s alleged interference in Bangladesh polls.

"Elections are a domestic matter to Bangladesh. It’s for the people of Bangladesh to decide their own future. As a close friend and partner of Bangladesh we would like to see peaceful elections there," the spokesperson said in response to a question by the BBC.

India is also concerned that the return of BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami party could pave the way for the return of Islamists in Bangladesh, as it had happened when the coalition was in power between 2001 and 2006.

"They gave rise to so many of these jihadi groups which were used for various purposes, including the 2004 assassination attempt on Ms Hasina and the capture of 10 trucks full of arms that came from Pakistan," Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka told the BBC.

Soon after coming to power in 2009, Ms Hasina also won favour with Delhi after acting against ethnic insurgent groups of India’s northeast, some of which were operating from Bangladesh.

India and Bangladesh share close cultural, ethnic and linguistic ties. Delhi played a key role in Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971 by sending in troops in support of the Bengali Resistance Force.

Dhaka depends on Delhi for the supply of many essential commodities like rice, pulses and vegetables. So, India is influential in Bangladesh from the kitchen to the ballot.

India has also offered more than $7bn Line of Credit to Bangladesh since 2010 for infrastructure and development projects.

But over the decades, there have been irritants in relations ranging from disputes over sharing of water resources to accusations of meddling in each other’s internal affairs.

"India has an image problem in Bangladesh. It comes from the perception that Bangladesh is not getting the best of the good neighbour, whether it comes to Delhi’s support for the government that possibly doesn’t enjoy full democratic legitimacy or in deals where we seek equitable share," Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka, told the BBC.

Ms Hasina came to power for a second time in January 2009 and her party has since won two more elections, although there have been accusations of widespread vote-rigging. The Awami League has denied the allegations.

Though India has gained road, river and train access via Bangladesh to transport goods to its north-eastern states, critics say Dhaka is still not able to do full-fledged overland trade with landlocked Nepal and Bhutan across the Indian territory.

India also has other strategic reasons to have a friendly government in Dhaka.

Delhi wants road and river transport access for its seven north-eastern states through Bangladesh.

Now the road and train connectivity from the Indian mainland to its northeast is through the "chicken’s neck" - a 20km (12 mile) land corridor that runs between Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan. Officials in Delhi are afraid this stretch is strategically vulnerable in any potential conflict with India’s rival, China.

While several Western governments had wanted to impose additional sanctions on Bangladeshi officials over alleged human rights violations and extra-judicial killings, India has been resisting the move calling it counterproductive. More so, since Beijing is keen to extend its footprint in Bangladesh as it battles for regional supremacy with India.

"We have conveyed to the West that if you push Ms Hasina, she will go into the Chinese camp, like other countries have done. That will cause a strategic problem with India," the former Indian diplomat, Mr Chakravarty, said. "We can’t afford that," he added.

Despite close ties between the two governments there is suspicion among some Bangladeshis when it comes to India.

"I don’t think Indians are friendly in all the areas. We are always having a problem with India as we are a Muslim nation," Zamiruddin, a vegetable merchant in Dhaka, said.

"We will have to safeguard ourselves first and then rely on others. Otherwise, we will be in trouble," he added.

While Delhi is concerned about the possibility of an Islamist regrouping, many in Bangladesh are worried about what’s happening across the border.

Rights groups say since the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 2014 in India, discrimination against religious minorities, particularly Muslims, has increased - an allegation the BJP denies.

Indian politicians also talk about alleged infiltration by "Bangladeshi illegal immigrants’ - seen as a part reference to Bengali Muslims who live in states like Assam and West Bengal.

"The maltreatment of Indian Muslims creates high potential possibility of maltreatment of the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh," Mr Bhattacharya said.

Hindus constitute nearly 8% of Bangladesh’s population.

Delhi is clear that Sheikh Hasina at the helm will suit its interests. But the challenging part will be reaching out to the people of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh cricket star Shakib Al Hasan’s election run divides hometown (Al Jazeera)

Al Jazeera [1/2/2024 4:14 PM, Faisal Mahmud, 2.1M, Neutral]
In Magura, a sleepy town in southwest Bangladesh, about 168km (104 miles) from capital Dhaka, more than a thousand people are gathered outside a circular-shaped auditorium.

The crisp winter air barely cut short their enthusiasm as they waited for Shakib Al Hasan – their “boy from the hometown” and arguably the biggest sporting icon in the South Asian nation of some 170 million people.

Hasan arrived in a swanky SUV, waved his hand like a seasoned politician, and quickly went inside the auditorium where again a couple of hundred people were waiting for him as he appeared for an interview with a popular YouTuber and talk show host, Rafsan Sabab.

The event was part of a PR campaign ahead of the national election in Bangladesh, to be held on January 7, in which Hasan, still an active player in the national cricket team, is contesting from his hometown constituency for the incumbent Awami League (AL) party.

As the interview began, Sabab asked, with a smile: “Every district of Bangladesh has its own speciality, be it food, garment or a monument. Here in Magura, when I ask anyone about its speciality, they unanimously say: Shakib Al Hasan.”

“Yes, I would have said the same,” Hasan wryly replied. Sabab laughed, so did the audience.

But that cheeky reply perhaps best portrays the 36-year-old cricketer, known for his aggressive style both on and off the ground. That he is often called the best ever athlete Bangladesh has produced also helps.

Hasan, currently the captain of Bangladesh’s one-day team, is ranked the number one all-rounder by the International Cricket Council in two of the three formats of the game simultaneously – one-day internationals (ODIs) and Twenty20 – and is ranked third in Test matches.

It is often said that cricket and cinema are the twin obsessions of people in South Asia, with some cricketers turning into superstars and adored by millions of fans. Some cricketers used their popularity to foray into politics, the former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan being the best example.

For Hasan, however, the situation is a bit complicated.

‘You call it an election?’

In October, Bangladesh’s opposition parties announced a boycott of the election after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina refused to cede power to a caretaker government to hold the vote. Hasina, ruling with an iron fist for 15 straight years, is seeking a fourth term.

Thousands of opposition activists, mainly from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have either been arrested or forced into hiding following a government crackdown since October, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the January 7 election.

Rights groups Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have also warned the crackdown on the opposition is aimed at subduing those against the government ahead of the vote. The government denies the charge, accusing the BNP of trying to sabotage the polls.

On Tuesday, the opposition parties began a new three-day campaign, asking people not to go to the polling centres, while the ruling party continued its poll campaign.

The manner in which the election is being held has angered many in the country.

Hasan, known as the “bad boy” of Bangladeshi cricket for a series of controversies on the field, isn’t immune to the criticism, as he seeks a seat in the country’s parliament from Magura.

“You call it an election?” asked Ali Ahmed, a prominent BNP politician in Hasan’s hometown. “It’s a selection. Declare Hasan the member of parliament now and save us all the embarrassment.”

Ahmed’s frustration was echoed by many others in Magura Al Jazeera talked to. While the town is not an opposition stronghold, years of an allegedly authoritarian regime and inflation have strengthened the anti-incumbency sentiments among the voters.

Mohammad Yusuf Ali, a confectionary shop owner, told Al Jazeera the Awami League party had robbed people of the festivity of a national election.

“We are being stripped of our voting rights. The last two elections were a farce. The upcoming one is even more so. Everyone here knows that Shakib [Al Hasan] will be the MP as he has no opponent. Is there any glory in scoring goals on an empty field?” he said.

“Besides, I don’t think he would have won it if there was a proper election. Shakib is no longer popular here.”

Hasan is undoubtedly the most famous person to ever hail from Magura, politician Ahmed said. He said the local people had been taking immense pride in the fact that the cricketer put the name of the small town on the world map by being one of the finest players the game has produced.

“In tea stalls, restaurants and markets, people used to turn on the TV and sit together whenever he played,” he said.

“But he is as disconnected a person as could be from his hometown people. He is arrogant, snobbish and ill-mannered. He doesn’t have the capacity to hold any political office. And by taking part in this election, he has probably lost the last bit of his popularity.”

Hasan’s supporters disagree.

‘Disheartening’

Mehedi Hasan Ujjal, Hasan’s cousin and one of his campaign managers, claimed people are embracing him with open arms.

“Just look at the crowd Shakib draws wherever he goes. The gathering and cheering of these people speak to how popular he is,” Ujjal told Al Jazeera.

Wearing a kurta and black waistcoat, a garment worn by Awami League politicians, the cricket star has been campaigning in cramped markets and households. On one occasion, he was seen kneeling in a field to embrace a homeless man. The video went viral on social media.

“I am a sportsman. It doesn’t matter if I become a politician. I will come here to play cricket with you many times in the next five years. I will be there for you in your thick and thin,” he said in an address at a local school.

“The young people of Magura love him,” Noyon Khan, a pharmacy owner, told Al Jazeera, “They are very happy to see Shakib as our MP. Some people in the area hate him out of jealousy because he is rich and successful. But they are very few.”

Nazmul Aberdeen Fahim, veteran cricket coach whom Hasan once called his mentor, told Al Jazeera that people “misunderstand” the cricketer. “They think he is unapproachable. That’s not true. He is actually very down to earth.”

Fahim said Hasan has been able to break the mould of an “arrogant” star cricketer and has turned into a skilled communicator.

“He had it in him. You see, cricketers are advised to stay away from the public to concentrate on their performances. That doesn’t mean they can’t run public offices well. In fact, they can read the psyche of the common people better than most others,” he said.

Despite multiple attempts, Hasan refused to talk to Al Jazeera, saying he did not want to give any “interview to a foreign media”. Over a brief phone call, he however said it was “the right time to enter into politics” for him.

Journalist and political analyst Rezaul Karim Rony said Hasan perhaps is the best “representative candidate” of Hasina’s Awami League party.

“Arrogance, ignorance, lies, and not giving a damn to common people’s desires and demands – these are the hallmarks of Awami politics in the last decade. Shakib is a perfect embodiment of that.”

Terming the upcoming election as a “massive joke”, Rony said: “If you know the results before the election, it’s not exactly an election. It’s so disheartening to see sports icons and celebrities joining and promoting this charade.”

ADB signs $160 mln loan agreement with Bangladesh to upgrade power network (Reuters)

Reuters [1/2/2024 9:14 AM, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, 5239K, Positive]
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Tuesday it had signed a $160 million loan agreement with Bangladesh to help upgrade the power distribution network and enhance energy supply in Dhaka, the country’s capital.

Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest garments exporter behind China supplying global retailers including Walmart, H&M and Zara, was forced to cut power for 114 days in the first five months of 2023, a Reuters analysis of power grid data showed last year, as against 113 days in all of 2022.

The assistance from ADB will ensure reliable, efficient and better electricity supply to Dhaka, Deputy Country Director of the ADB, Jiangbo Ning was quoted as saying in the statement.

"It will also promote the climate agenda by helping to optimize power usage, reduce wastage, modernize aged and overloaded power infrastructure," Ning said.

Bangladesh’s 2023 coal-fired power output tripled, easing shortages (Reuters)

Reuters [1/3/2024 4:14 AM, Sudarshan Varadhan and Ashley Fang, 5.2M, Neutral]
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power shortages in over a decade and slash rising generation costs.

Coal rose to prominence in Bangladesh’s power mix in 2023 at the expense of cleaner fuels, as the government struggled to pay for costly natural gas, furnace oil and diesel imports because of shrinking dollar reserves and a weakening currency.

Power generation from coal surged to a record 21 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023, up from the 7.9 billion kWh of electricity produced from coal in 2022, an analysis of daily operational reports by the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) showed.

"The share of coal is expected to increase further this year as a new unit is expected to get commissioned. Dependence on gas is expected to remain steady and use of liquid fuels will fall," a senior energy ministry official said.

Coal’s share of the power generation fuel mix rose to 14.2% in 2023, from 8.9% in 2022, the PGCB data showed, while the share of natural gas rose to 55.2% in 2023, the first increase in four years and up from 51% in 2022.

However, natural gas’s share last year was much lower than the average of about 66% in the ten years to 2022 as high international prices for the fuel limited its usage. Dwindling local gas reserves and LNG, mainly from Qatar, are the main gas sources for the country.

Coal and natural gas gained mainly at the expense of liquid fuels such as fuel oil and diesel, whose share in power generation slipped to 20.1% in 2023 from 29.6% in 2022, the data showed.

Bangladesh, home to over 170 million people and the world’s second-largest garments exporter, supplying global retailers including Walmart (WMT.N), H&M and Zara, faced unscheduled power cuts during three out of every four days in 2023.

Overall shortages surged nearly 40% year-on-year to 2.7 billion kWh in 2023, or 2.8% of demand, PGCB data showed, with shortages easing in the second half of the year because of higher coal-fired output.

Along with other major Asian economies India and Vietnam, Bangladesh boosted its use of relatively inexpensive coal to meet it surging power demand growth, which rose over 5% in 2023.

Higher coal-fired generation also put the south Asian nation on track to cut average generation costs for the first time in four years.

The cost of power generation averaged 5.23 Bangladesh Taka (4.78 U.S. cents) per kWh during the 11 months ending November, about 9% lower than in 2022.

Bangladesh, among the top ten economies most dependent on fossil fuels for power generation, hopes to boost its green credentials this year by doubling its solar capacity additions and commissioning a long-delayed nuclear power plant.

However, fossil fuels will continue to dominate power generation in the coming years and renewables are not expected to make up more than 5% of overall output this decade, industry officials say.

Bangladesh: Mongla town offers new life for climate migrants (Deutsche Welle)

Deutsche Welle [1/2/2024 10:31 AM, Rafiqul Montu, 2728K, Neutral]
Mahima Begum moved to the port town of Mongla in southwestern Bangladesh after a natural disaster struck her village and destroyed the home her father had built.

The 32-year-old is one of the millions of people in the South Asian country who have been forced to relocate due to climate-related disasters.

Historically, migrants have made their way to the country’s capital, Dhaka.

But the city is already one of the most overcrowded places on Earth and it’s poorly equipped to accommodate the waves of people moving from climate-impacted areas of the country into urban centers, seeking residence and employment.

Mongla, located around 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the Bay of Bengal, is emerging as an alternative for climate-displaced people.

The town’s seaport and export processing zone (EPZ) have turned it into an economic and employment hub, attracting people from parts of Bangladesh ravaged by environmental disasters.

"Here I’ve found job opportunities. The city’s environment is livable. The cost of living is not too high. After losing my home due to natural disasters, I wanted to come here and start a fresh life," Begum said.

Building a climate-resilient hub

Zulfikar Ali served as Mongla’s mayor for a decade before stepping down in February 2023.

"Earlier, people used to leave Mongla and go to other cities in search of work. But now there are more and more jobs in the port and the export processing zone. So people from different areas are coming here," he told DW.

"Mongla will be a regional economic hub in the next five years. Rapid industrialization here will accommodate thousands of migrants," the ex-mayor added.

The port town has also focused on building climate-resilient infrastructure amid rising sea levels and increasingly severe cyclones.

It built an 11-kilometer (6.8 miles) embankment along a marine drive designed to stop flooding, two flood-control gates, a better drainage system, a water reservoir and a water treatment plant, as well as loudspeakers to warn residents of incoming storms.

"We are working to make Mongla a climate-resilient city. At one time, the city was regularly flooded by high tides. Now it is being brought under climate-friendly urban planning," said Sheikh Abdur Rahman, the current mayor.

"Affordable housing, schools and health services are available here. We plan to modernize these services," he told DW.

20 million internal climate refugees by 2050?

Mongla’s population was below 40,000 in 2011 but a decade later it has grown to about 150,000.

Many of these newer inhabitants moved from villages near the Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest, home to the endangered Bengal tiger.

The town’s population of displaced people is estimated to grow rapidly as catastrophic climate events increase in frequency and intensity.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), some 4.1 million people, accounting for about 2.5% of the population, were displaced in Bangladesh as a result of climate-induced disasters as of 2019.

A World Bank report estimated that the country will have about 19.9 million internal climate refugees by 2050, almost half the projected number for the entire South Asia region.

Plans to create ‘migrant-friendly’ cities

Against this backdrop, the research institute International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) has conceptualized a scheme to alleviate migration pressures on megacities like Dhaka and instead redirect climate migrants toward smaller towns and cities.

Mongla is the first town to have implemented plans laid out by ICCCAD.

"We have shared our recommendations with the local administration. Mangla municipality has already done a lot of work based on the recommendations," said Sardar Shafiqul Alam, an ICCCAD official.

"There are employment opportunities in this city. More job opportunities will be created in the future," he added.

The organization is also working with local officials and NGOs to create more such "migrant-friendly" cities that, collectively, are expected to accommodate millions of climate-displaced people in the coming years.

"Climate-driven people can live in these cities if civic amenities are properly ensured," said Alam.

Zakir Hossain Khan, a climate finance analyst and executive director of Change Initiative, said that compact townships should be planned in coastal cities for the welfare and rehabilitation of people displaced by climate change.

"For this, area-wise plans should be implemented by formulating strategies quickly. In this plan, capacity-based training should be given considering the capabilities and needs of the vulnerable population."

Editor’s Note: This article was written in connection with a recent conference, "Connecting the Dots: Debating Displacement in South Asia," hosted by the DW Academy and the Calcutta Research Group.

Rohingya refugees in Sri Lanka protest planned closure of U.N. office, fearing abandonment (AP)

AP [1/2/2024 8:43 AM, Krishan Francis, 2565K, Negative]
A group of Rohingya refugees living in Sri Lanka staged a protest outside the office of the U.N. refugee agency Tuesday, saying they fear losing their living allowance once the agency’s office in the island nation closes at the end of this year.

The protesters also want to be resettled in another country because Sri Lanka does not allow them to live there permanently.

About 100 Rohingya refugees live in Sri Lanka, most of them rescued at sea by the navy while they were trying to reach Indonesia after fleeing Myanmar for Bangladesh.

About 740,000 Rohingya were resettled in Bangladesh after fleeing their homes in Myanmar to escape a brutal counterinsurgency campaign by security forces. But the camps in Bangladesh are squalid, with surging gang violence and rampant hunger, leading many to flee again.

Ruki Fernando, a rights activist in Sri Lanka, said the refugees receive basic allowance from the U.N. agency and are provided with limited health care by the Sri Lankan government. However, the refugee children don’t receive education and adults aren’t allowed to work.

“We didn’t intend to come to Sri Lanka, but were rescued off the seas in Sri Lanka and brought to Sri Lanka by the navy. We also had to endure a hard time in detention in Sri Lanka and still live a very hard life in a new country where we can’t speak our language, and many don’t have family members, relatives and friends,” the refugees said in a petition to the U.N. agency’s representative.

The petition said the refugees were upset to learn of the office’s upcoming closure and pleaded for it to “help us find a permanent solution in another country that will help us overcome uncertainty and not make us and our children permanently stateless.”

The U.N. refugee agency could not immediately be reached Tuesday.

The office in Sri Lanka was especially active during the country’s quarter-century civil war which ended in 2009.

Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan’s New Flag Debuts in Bishkek (The Diplomat)

The Diplomat [1/2/2024 11:43 AM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Neutral]
As 2024 dawned in Kyrgyzstan, a new flag fluttered over Bishkek. To the untrained eye, it may look mostly the same but the rays on the sun are a little straighter – even if the priorities of the Kyrgyz government remain wavering.

On November 29, Kyrgyzstan’s parliament passed the first of three required readings of a bill first proposed in September that called for changing the design of the Kyrgyz flag. The introduction of the bill sparked a backlash among the public, not that most Kyrgyz lawmakers cared much. On December 20, without discussion, the parliament adopted the bill following two readings that were conducted at once.

In a speech that RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reported had gone essentially “unnoticed” by the parliament, one deputy, Nurzhigit Kadyrbekov, opposed the bill by pointing to the fact that “the most powerful state in the world,” the United States, has a flag that “looks like a mattress” and yet it has not been changed. (Note: The U.S. flag has been changed 26 times since 1777, adding new stars for new states accepted into the union.) Kadyrbekov also said that the Democratic Party’s mascot, a donkey, has not been changed either — suggesting perhaps that an ass is not the greatest of mascots. These were not the most compelling arguments.

More importantly, Kadyrbekov noted that the flag-change proposal had generated discord among the public and alluded to the arrest of a young man – Aftandil Zhorobekov – who was detained on December 8 after calling for protests against the flag-change plan. A small rally did go ahead on December 9 in Bishkek, while more opposition was voiced online.

Colleen Wood detailed the proposed changes last month when the first reading passed. She noted that this was “not the first time Kyrgyzstan’s lawmakers have tried to change the flag” and that the proposed changes were, in comparison to earlier initiatives, rather minor.

The Kyrgyz flag retains its colors and general structure: a yellow tunduk – the iconic top of a yurt – inside a sun with forty rays against a red background. The sun’s rays are now straight, rather than wavy, and somewhat separated from the circle. The tunduk has four slats crossing four now, rather than three crossing three.

Administratively, the adoption of the new flag will likely be gradual. Official documents, the law states, will be valid until their expiration dates and existing images of the national flag elsewhere – such as on car tags – will be able to be used until the relevant state bodies make plans for their replacement. Elsewhere, such as government flagpoles, the new design is appearing already.

During the People’s Kurultai on December 15-16, President Sadyr Japarov admitted that the initiative to change the flag was his. The Kurultai is an ancient tradition resurrected as a conveniently unelected political forum in the 2020 referendum.

It’s worth ending on this section from Wood’s article last month and the suggestion that maybe the Kyrgyz parliament, and government, has more important things to work on:

When local media outlet Kaktus conducted street interviews in Bishkek back in October, people not only said they prefer the original design, but that they think this whole bill is a distraction from actual societal problems. Respondents cited rising taxes, inflation, domestic violence, and crumbling roads.

“I don’t get it. If we change the flag, then everyone will be fed, they won’t shut off electricity in the winter, houses will be warm, and food will be cheaper?” Avazbek Amanbekov, a world class champion kickboxer, posted on his Instagram stories. “Are we really going to compete under a different flag now?”

How is Central Asia responding to the Israel-Hamas war? (The Hill – opinion)

The Hill [1/2/2024 9:00 AM, James Durso, 1592K, Neutral]
Israel’s counterattack on the Gaza Strip, in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”), has caused allegedly 20,000 deaths among Palestinian civilians. Every country in the Muslim world has seen popular rejection of Israel’s assault, and the Central Asian republics are no exception.

The Central Asian people identify with their Muslim co-religionists and may also be upset to see Palestinians living under a security regime that reminds them of their experience under the Russian and Soviet empires.

Protests in support of Palestinians were organized in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, but they were peaceful and not well attended — and the authorities want to keep it that way. Also in Uzbekistan, RFE/RL’s Uzbek Service found the Telegram and Instagram apps were used to provide information on boycotting Israeli products, though the effort misfired when it claimed the soap powder “Ariel” was named after former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon.

Central Asian governments are right to be alert to public disorder in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel. In Russia’s Dagestan, police had to respond when a crowd stormed an airport looking for passengers from Israel on an arriving flight. The region’s governments are speaking out in defense of the Palestinians caught between the Hamas and Israeli forces, providing financial aid and, at the United Nations (U.N.), voting in favor of support for the Palestinian people.

The governments’ concerns are as follows:

Public order. The administrations want to ensure citizens’ passions aren’t vented on the streets, and avoid outbreaks like the unrest in Kazakhstan in February 2022 following the de-control of prices for vehicle fuel. The violence was quelled by local police and military and Russian troops.

Other outbreaks of violence happened in the Republic of Karakalpakstan in July 2022 in response to proposed changes to Uzbekistan’s constitution that would eliminate the republic’s secession rights; and in the Kyrgyz Republic, which experienced outbreaks of political violence in 2005, 2010 and 2020.

Fundraising to benefit Palestinians. The governments will likely encourage monetary donations to legitimate charities that will aid Palestinians displaced by Israeli attacks. They can do this by insisting funds flow through the mosques, all government controlled, to ensure the funds are delivered to the deserving, and that the donors or intermediaries aren’t targeted by the United States or the European Union (EU) for money laundering or support to terrorism.

Foreign fighters. Central Asian governments are sensitive to signs of radicalization because their citizens were among the foreign fighters in the Syrian Civil War and war in Iraq. Ensuring that the boys stay at home is a priority for the republics that are already concerned about identifying returning foreign fighters. Stopping the problem at the source will ensure no hiccups in relations with the U.S. and the EU, and Israel, which has embassies in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

In addition, China would demand that local volunteers are stopped lest any eventually wind up fighting with the separatist East Turkestan Islamic Movement. In May 2023, the leaders of China and the republics met at the inaugural China-Central Asia summit, opening the door to increased Chinese investment in the region and giving the local governments a way to balance against the U.S., EU and Russia. If the republics can’t stop local volunteers to fight in Gaza in support of Hamas, Beijing must reevaluate its partners’ suitability as investment destinations.

Increased influence of local Islamist groups. Local Islamist groups associated with al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took advantage of the Israeli attack on Gaza and took to social media to extol the Hamas fighters, callin for Muslims to engage in missionary activity, donate money to them (cryptocurrency preferred), and participate in jihad. Islamists were active on Telegram channels, which reach are popular in Central Asia, to spread audio and video messages, though at a cost, as local governments can easily monitor them.

In response to the Islamists, local imams announced their support for the Palestinians but warned citizens about falling prey to propaganda. Abror Mukhtar Aliy, an outspoken member of the Muslim Board of Uzbekistan, encouraged youth not to go to Palestine to fight with Hamas. He declared that Uzbek Muslims should only follow fatwas of the Muslim Board of Uzbekistan, which previously urged Muslims not to get involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, as fighting would be against their Islamic faith as their only obligation was to defend their homeland.

Visits to Saudi Arabia for Hajj and Umrah by Uzbeks have climbed in recent years. In the Islam Karimov era, only 5,000 Uzbeks made the annual Hajj; now the number is 15,000 to 17,000. Previously, only 2,000 performed Umrah every year; now the number is about 140,000. This trend will probably be replicated in all the republics as the Central Asian people may grow closer to their religion in response to the attack on the Palestinians.

What is happening in Israel and Gaza is a tragedy, but there is opportunity here for many in Central Asia.

Concerned Muslims can write, speak and donate funds to support the Palestinians.

Governments can ensure their citizens’ donations to the Palestinians get in the right hands and that local financial institutions are not sanctioned by the West, continue to vote for Palestine at the U.N., and continue to consider Hamas as the resistance, while quietly hewing to international sanctions on the group. (Only the U.S., EU, Australia, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom consider Hamas a terrorist organization.)

The local Islamists will make a few bucks but hopefully will not get much accomplished, as the republics may respond with increased coordination among their security services and with their U.S. and European counterparts.

Local imams can continue their mutually beneficial relationships with the governments as they try to regain influence lost to Soviet atheism and the hardline polities of former Uzbek president Islam Karimov. Governments will cooperate with the imams, all of whom are state officials, as the capitals are conscious of the region’s Islamic heritage but must also secure the modernizing, secular state structure.

Twitter

Afghanistan

Massoud Hossaini
@Massoud151
[1/2/2024 11:41 AM, 31.3K followers, 1 retweet, 5 likes]
#TalibanTerrorist group starts arresting those girls & women who avoid using burka & Hijab in the way they order!

Massoud Hossaini
@Massoud151
[1/2/2024 11:35 AM, 31.3K followers]
The #US orgs & federal gov & funders are ethically responsible to check the background of those from #Afghanistan who were involved of kind of corruption & stealing US tax payers money. This people are among civil society & artists & journalists & gov employees of Afghanistan.

Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[1/2/2024 7:28 AM, 77.3K followers, 104 retweets, 394 likes]
At @oneyoungworld, I shared the message of 17-year-old Tahmina to the world. She has been banned from school for over two years. Afghanistan is the only country on earth that bans girl’s education. It sets a dangerous precedent for our future generations.

Pakistan

Spokesperson Pakistan MoFA
@ForeignOfficePk
[1/2/2024 7:56 AM, 466.2K followers, 22 retweets, 35 likes]
The US Ambassador to Pakistan, Donald Bloom, called on Foreign Minister @JalilJilani today. Discussions focused on some major aspects of bilateral relations including the recent visit of the Chief of Army Staff to the United States. The Foreign Minister underlined that in 2024, the two sides should continue to build on the recent exchanges and the momentum gained in bilateral ties.

India

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/3/2024 2:33 AM, 94.2M followers, 476 retweets, 1.7K likes]
It was a delight to interact with beneficiaries of various GoI schemes in Lakshadweep. A group of women talked about how their SHG worked towards starting a restaurant, thus becoming self-reliant; an elderly person shared how Ayushman Bharat helped in treating a heart ailment, and a woman farmer’s life changed due to PM-KISAN. Others talked about free ration, benefits for Divyangs, PM-AWAS, Kisan Credit Cards, Ujjwala Yojana and more. It is indeed satisfying to see the fruits of development reach a cross section of people, even in the more remote areas.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/2/2024 9:20 PM, 94.2M followers, 1.8K retweets, 5.3Klikes]
Tributes to Savitribai Phule and Rani Velu Nachiyar on their Jayanti. Both of them inspired society with their compassion and courage. Their contribution towards our nation is invaluable. Here is how we paid tributes to them during the recent #MannKiBaat.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/2/2024 11:05 AM, 94.2M followers, 3.5K retweets, 19K likes]
Chaired a review meeting on aspects relating to Lakshadweep’s progress. Our Government is committed to ensuring a better quality of life for the people of Lakshadweep, with a focus on boosting infrastructure, protecting the local culture and ensuring avenues of prosperity for the people.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/2/2024 9:37 AM, 94.2M followers, 2.8K retweets, 11K likes]
After programmes in Tamil Nadu, landed to a warm welcome in Lakshadweep earlier this evening. Addressed a programme at the airport as well, in which I highlighted our efforts to work for Lakshadweep’s progress in the times to come.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/2/2024 6:46 AM, 94.2M followers, 5.8K retweets, 30K likes]
Delighted to inaugurate the state-of-the-art terminal building at Tiruchirappalli Airport. This modern facility symbolizes our commitment to enhancing connectivity and boosting economic growth in Tamil Nadu.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/3/2024 1:55 AM, 3M followers, 234 retweets, 1.7K likes]
Contributing to a national conversation on foreign policy. Signed some copies of #WhyBharatMatters. https://twitter.com/i/status/1742439503933878598

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[1/3/2024 2:24 AM, 261K followers, 40 retweets, 169 likes]
Important parallels between Nehru and Modi have included excessive personalization of policy and learning on the job. Modi’s "realism" came after "romanticism" backfired—from appeasing PRC by meeting Xi 18 times to making an unannounced visit to Pakistan.

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney@Chellaney
[1/2/2024 4:56 AM, 261K followers, 209 retweets, 641 likes]
Entrapment? The indictment alleged a plot that was remarkably amateurish: an Indian operative, at an unnamed Indian official’s direction, tried to arrange a killing on US soil, but the hitman he hired from India turned out to be an undercover American cop. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4384020-sikh-militancy-casts-a-shadow-over-u-s-india-relations/

Arindam Bagchi
@MEAIndia
[1/3/2024 2:02 AM, 2.3M followers, 272 retweets, 2.9K likes]
The baton passes on! Shri Randhir Jaiswal assumes charge as the Official Spokesperson of @MEAIndia as Shri Arindam Bagchi proceeds on overseas assignment.

Richard Rossow
@RichardRossow
[1/3/2024 3:02 AM, 28.8K followers, 4 retweets, 10 likes]
India ends ‘23 with some good news on the external sector- a record $10b in foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows in a single month. $28b net inflow over the last 12 months, mostly equity investment.

Richard Rossow
@RichardRossow
[1/2/2024 9:52 AM, 28.8K followers, 3 retweets, 8 likes]
India, UAE hold EXERCISE DESERT CYCLONE in Rajasthan. Focus on sub-conventional desert operations, surveillance, heliborne ops. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1992404

NSB

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/2/2024 8:22 AM, 634.2K followers, 47 retweets, 151 likes]
Braving intimidation of #BNP #Jamaat leaders to boycott polls , hundreds of thousands of supporters gathered at an election rally addressed by #SheikhHasina. Holding national flags men and women lent their support for #AwamiLeague candidates in upcoming polls. #Banglaesh #Elections2024 #Elections

Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP
@bdbnp78
[1/2/2024 12:49 PM, 45.7K followers, 23 retweets, 139 likes]
If the Hasina regime truly cared for workers, how could they murder and imprison numerous garment workers struggling for rightful wages? Awami League and its leaders, as it appears to us, “act nothing but a bunch of hypocrites like they usually are.”

Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP
@bdbnp78
[1/2/2024 11:23 AM, 45.7K followers, 33 retweets, 171 likes]
The candidate of @albd1971’s show-piece opposition Jatiya Party in Habiganj, Shankar Paul has withdrawn himself from 2024 dummy election as he said, in last poll his activists were harassed by Police & had to spend days in jail. If the domesticated opposition had to face this, imagine what happened to the BNP men? BNP’s activists & leaders were killed, abducted, jailed, amputated & lynched.

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[1/3/2024 1:08 AM, 4.8K followers, 1 like]
CHRD #Bangladesh, along with many other international human rights organizations and journalists, has condemned repeatedly the lack of civic space and democracy in Bangladesh under the current government. CHRD Bangladesh has also pointed out on many occasions that a free and fair electoral process in Bangladesh is an absolute impossibility under the Awami League regime. Statement Ahead Of The January 7, 2024 Bangladesh Election https://chrdbangladesh.org/2024/01/03/statement-ahead-of-the-january-7-2024-bangladesh-election/ via @ChrdBangladesh

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/2/2024 7:43 AM, 255.9K followers, 1 retweet, 13 likes]
A delegation from the Federation of Canada Nepal Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Hindu Chamber of Commerce called on Foreign Minister Hon @NPSaudnc today. Discussion was focused on trade, tourism and investment between Nepal and Canada.

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/2/2024 7:43 AM, 255.9K followers, 1 retweet, 7 likes]
The Foreign Minister assured of the Ministry’s facilitation to the potential investors from Canada. He also invited the delegation to participate in the upcoming Nepal Investment Summit. @sewa_lamsal @amritrai555

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[1/3/2024 1:43 AM, 4.7K followers, 2 retweets, 6 likes]
Pleased to meet with Assistant Secretary General & Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific of the @UNDP @kanniwignaraja at @MFA_SriLanka today. We had a discussion on the progress of ongoing areas of cooperation supported by the #UNDP.

Central Asia

MFA Kazakhstan
@MFA_KZ
[1/3/2024 1:55 AM, 49.8K followers, 10 retweets, 13 likes]
Factsheet on Key Outcomes and Results in #Kazakhstan’s Sectors in 2023 https://gov.kz/memleket/entities/mfa/press/news/details/681087?lang=en

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/3/2024 1:56 AM, 22.2K followers, 1 like]
This year Kazakhstan chairs the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Collective Security Treaty Organization, Organization of Turkic States, International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, Islamic Organization for Food Security, and the Conference on Confidence-Building Measures in Asia.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/2/2024 6:47 PM, 22.2K followers, 1 retweet, 6 likes]
Elite US universities face a political crisis they can’t control: “While there are clear political motivations at play in the right’s assault on the country’s most storied universities, the controversies are also unfolding at a fraught moment in higher education. Elite universities are being buffeted by claims that they are tainted by the political doctrines of the left and that colleges are becoming less a place to prepare new generations and more an incubator of radical ideology.” https://cnn.com/2023/12/22/politics/harvard-plagiarism-controversy-republicans-analysis

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/2/2024 5:27 PM, 22.2K followers, 2 likes]
Dana Masalimova @DCRES_Harvard: "... Central Asia’s heavy reliance on Russia for trade, transit, and investment leaves it vulnerable to Moscow’s geopolitical agenda. Nowhere is this dependence more evident than in Kazakhstan, where over 96 percent of oil exports transited Russian territory in 2022 despite efforts to find alternative routes." https://nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-road-rivalries/sanctions-enforcement-follow-central-asia%E2%80%99s-middle-corridor-208302

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/2/2024 5:00 PM, 22.2K followers, 2 retweets, 14 likes]
Gazprom reiterating: Russian gas shipment to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan via the Central Asia - Center pipeline began last year (switching this system to reverse mode). Accoridng to two-year UzGasTrade and Gazprom agreement, the export volume is 9 mcm per day/nearly 2.8 bcm per year. Gazprom currently working on 15-year contracts for gas supply to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/2/2024 12:50 PM, 22.2K followers, 2 retweets, 3 likes]
Uzbekistan: President Mirziyoyev started the year by authorizing to boost country’s armed forces, accelerate the modernization of the army. Today’s meetings also focused on green energy. Mirziyoyev says there are currently 28 solar, wind and hybrid energy projects across Uzbekistan. When completed, they should generate 6.3 GW power in total.

{End of Report}

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