epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Thursday, January 25, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
The Plight of Hazaras Under the Taliban Government (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/24/2024 8:22 AM, Gul Hassan Mohammadi, 201K, Negative]
Undeniably, all communities in Afghanistan have suffered tremendously, but the Hazara minority has suffered disproportionately because of its distinct ethnic and religious identity. As an ethnoreligious minority, the Hazaras of Afghanistan have endured a long history of discrimination and systematic persecution. The Hazara community has suffered from enslavement, mass killings, and forced displacement throughout the modern history of Afghanistan. This suffering has continued into the present, aggravated alarmingly by the Taliban’s rise to power.

Since the Taliban took over in mid-August 2021, the situation has deteriorated because the group has not been able to, or is unwilling to, stop the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and other groups from attacking the Hazaras.

Following the Taliban’s conquest of Afghanistan, ISKP has intensified its operations against the Hazara community. According to Human Rights Watch, hundreds of Hazaras have been killed in suicide attacks in education centers, marketplaces, religious places, and on public transportation since the Taliban’s takeover. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 49 Hazaras have been killed just in the past three months. Besides targeted attacks that ISKP claimed responsibility for, there was also “mysterious targeting of Hazaras” by unidentified and unknown perpetrators, which has added to the complexity of the security crisis. Unclaimed attacks encourage the unknown perpetrators to continue committing crimes without being blamed.

The plight of the Hazara community is worsened by the Taliban’s incitement of sectarian violence against them. The regular public incitement of violence and persecution by the Taliban paves the ground for the perpetration and augmentation of more attacks. Top members of the Taliban government have labeled Shia Muslims, such as the Hazaras, as “infidels.” To cite one prominent example, the Taliban governor of Herat, Noor Mohammad Islamjar, wrote in a book that Shia Muslims are “historical collaborators with infidels.” Such pejorative labels not only excuse the persecution of the Shia Hazara community but worsen the situation as committing violence against a persecuted ethnoreligious group is normalized and justified by Afghanistan’s de facto authorities.

The Taliban’s contribution to inciting violence and fueling systematic hatred has many dimensions. The Ministry of Higher Education of the Taliban has ordered private universities to remove books belonging to the Shia sect. Furthermore, the Taliban have banned marriage between Shia and Sunni Muslims in certain regions of the country because marriage with “infidels” is invalid in the Taliban’s hardline ideology. When the Taliban ascended to power, for instance, they arrested a Hazara man and his Pashtun wife, who had married 15 years ago. It is obvious that the goal of outlawing marriage to Shia Hazaras is to dehumanize the Hazara population and socially isolate them. Indeed, the Taliban’s discrimination against Hazaras further expands the vulnerability of the Hazara community in Afghanistan as they are left unprotected.

The Taliban’s incitement of violence against the Hazara community makes their already vulnerable status worse and creates the conditions for more persecution. The Taliban’s outright dehumanization and justification of murder against Shia Muslims, particularly the Hazaras, by calling them “infidels” creates perilous rhetoric that can drive violence more commonly in Afghan society. Such divisive rhetoric not only creates a hostile atmosphere but also, by implying that violence against Hazaras is justified, may normalize their targeting in the eyes of other communities in the long run.

Moreover, the Taliban’s notorious Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice has started extensive arrests of Hazara women and girls from various parts of the country, particularly western Kabul, under the pretext of wearing improper hijabs. Circulating hatred and violence against the Hazara community is not limited to arresting girls and women; some pro-Taliban clerics publicly call for the arrest and torture of Hazara women in mosques.

Openly inciting violence and preaching discrimination against female members of a persecuted group is a two-fold threat as it not only targets them based on their gender, but also because of their ethnic and religious identity. In a global plea regarding the plight of the Hazara community, thousands of citizens of Afghanistan mobilized a global march to appeal for the end of “Hazara genocide” and “gender apartheid.”

Even though the Taliban profess to be providing security in Afghanistan, the Hazara community still falls victim to sophisticated attacks, bombings, and suicide attacks. Under the Taliban, the Hazara community in Afghanistan is subjected to extreme violence and systematic dehumanization. As the world community’s understanding grows of the plight of Hazaras, it must take action to address the incitement to violence and persecution against the community. In order to preserve the rights of the Hazara community and to possibly avert long-term instability in Afghanistan, the current crisis necessitates prompt international engagement.
Pakistan
Don’t cover Imran Khan’s PTI: Pakistan’s media told to censor popular ex-PM (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [1/25/2024 3:30 AM, Abid Hussain, 2.1M, Neutral]
Journalist Amir Mehmood* was getting ready for work when his phone buzzed with a WhatsApp message.

As a member of the top management at a private news channel in Pakistan’s second-largest city, Lahore, Mehmood was used to getting non-stop calls and messages, even at odd hours.

But the name of the sender of that message on Tuesday morning caught his attention and he immediately picked up his phone. It was an official who belonged to the country’s powerful military, which has directly ruled over Pakistan for more than three decades of its 75-year existence as a constitutional republic and has controlled most levers of power, from behind the scenes, even when civilian governments have been in office.

“Basically, the person pointed out some of our election coverage and said we must not use the flags of PTI or mention their affiliation with candidates backed by the party. It instructed us to clearly identify the candidates only as ‘independent’ and not show which party they were related to,” Mehmood told Al Jazeera.

Mehmood is among multiple journalists working in newsrooms of different TV news channels and web outlets, who have told Al Jazeera of instructions they have received effectively imposing near-blanket censorship on coverage of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party ahead of the nation’s February 8 elections.

PTI, founded by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is widely seen as possibly the country’s most popular political party. But Khan, a cricketing icon, has been imprisoned since August 2023 as he awaits trials over charges of corruption and leaking of state secrets – allegations he dismisses as being politically motivated.

Since he lost a confidence vote in parliament in April 2022 and was forced out of power, Khan and his PTI have faced a crackdown. Tens of thousands of the PTI’s members were arrested and hundreds of leaders have quit the party – many under alleged pressure by the military.

The nomination papers of Khan and dozens of his party leaders for the February 8 elections were rejected by the Election Commission of Pakistan. Recently, the Supreme Court upheld the poll commission’s decision to strip the PTI of its election symbol – a cricket bat – forcing many of the party’s candidates to contest the vote as independents.

Pakistani media was already barred from reporting Khan’s speeches or rallies on TV. But now, the restrictions on coverage of the PTI appear to have become even more expansive.

No flag, no reference
As soon as Mehmood received the WhatsApp message, he shared it with his boss. After a brief discussion, the two issued a channel-wide notice to remove PTI references from all visuals, graphics and talking points, and identify its candidates solely as independents, with no mention of the party they represent.

Of the seven journalists Al Jazeera spoke to, six insisted on anonymity for fear of reprisals from their organisations. Three of them, including Mehmood, confirmed receiving instructions on Tuesday to not run PTI flags or show party affiliations with their candidates.

A Lahore-based executive producer at one of the top news channels also confirmed receiving instructions from his management, which said that candidates endorsed by the PTI must not be identified as such.

“We are told to not even display the PTI party flag with their name, and to emphasise that they are only independent candidate,” he told Al Jazeera.

Murtaza Solangi, Pakistan’s caretaker information minister, however, denied the claims. “We have NOT issued any orders like that,” he replied to Al Jazeera in a WhatsApp message.

The country’s media regulator, the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA), has so far not issued an official statement or order that concerns restricting coverage of any party. It did not respond to queries by Al Jazeera on whether such instructions had been issued.

Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing, also did not respond to questions sent by Al Jazeera.

Undeniable intimidation

It isn’t just journalists who are alleging censorship. The Human Rights Watch in its latest report said the Pakistani government has increased pressure on media outlets and individuals.

To be sure, accusations of censorship, pre-poll rigging and suppression of dissent are not new in the country. “This pattern of instructions coming down from the establishment has been going on for a long time,” said Mehmood. It used to be other parties that faced the brunt earlier. Now, it’s the PTI’s turn.

Indeed, when Khan was prime minister and the PTI was in power, it enjoyed good relations at the time with the “establishment” – a euphemism for the Pakistani military. International media watchdogs such as Reporters Without Borders had then issued reports, condemning harassment and intimidation of journalists.

Now, in addition to the intimidation and harassment faced by Khan and his party leadership, media personnel identified as PTI-leaning have been targeted too.

Multiple journalists have been picked up by state authorities, often without explanation, and kept in detention for days and even months. Many others have faced charges of sedition.

All the journalists Al Jazeera spoke to pointed to the events of May 9 last year as a turning point – a moment after which Pakistani authorities have engaged in unprecedented levels of media monitoring and censorship, they said.

On that day, thousands of PTI and Khan supporters came out on the streets to protest their leader’s arrest in a corruption case. While Khan was released after a brief detention, the rioters torched government buildings and military installations, resulting in a massive crackdown against the party and its supporters.

Days after the events of May 9, media watchdog PEMRA issued a circular, enforcing a ban on coverage of those involved in the riots, and later it was reported that a ban had been imposed on using Khan’s name or his image in broadcast coverage.

An Islamabad-based journalist, who is the website editor of a news channel, explained that after May 9, there were clear directions that anything regarding Khan or his party that went on air or online required clearance from top management.

“We understand that PTI and Imran Khan are right now entities which are out of favour, so we work accordingly. For example, we try to avoid using Khan’s photo as much as possible but if it is necessary, we try to use one in which he appears worried, or distressed, kind of building a particular perception about him,” he told Al Jazeera.

What makes the situation even more complicated, says another journalist with nearly 15 years of experience in print and digital journalism, is the lack of clarity and the “arbitrary” manner of censorship.

“Prior to the 2018 polls, there was some clarity on what we could say and could not. Now, sometimes Imran Khan and news related to him are mentioned on TV, or instructions are to use his name only in the text of the story but not in the headline. It appears that this confusion is done deliberately,” the journalist told Al Jazeera.

Another example she cited was the usage of the term “establishment” for the Pakistani military.

“Last year, we were instructed to not directly the use term establishment on TV or in news reports, but use some other alternatives, even when everybody knows who we are talking about. We stopped for a while, but our channel is again using the term, without any consequences,” she added.

Changed tactics

Azaz Syed, a veteran journalist who works for the country’s largest media outlet Geo, said while attacks on the media and efforts to censor the press have been a reality of Pakistani journalism for decades, the tactics have now evolved.

Referring to a number of incidents in the past, Syed said journalists associated with news organisations used to be targeted in their individual capacity.

“While those individuals, who are primarily working in a personal capacity as social media journalists, still continue to get targeted such as Imran Riaz Khan, by and large, the intimidation and pressure is now exerted on media owners and the top tier of management,” he told Al Jazeera. Imran Riaz Khan, a popular TV anchor, was arrested last May while on his way to Oman, and only released four months later.

An Islamabad-based television journalist said in his previous role at another TV channel, he would get direct calls from the military’s media wing but that has completely stopped now.

“ISPR officials would call us to give directions about news agenda and editorial control, which at that time used to be in favour of the PTI. However, now this does not happen anymore. Whatever new instruction or policy decision there is, it only comes from management,” the journalist told Al Jazeera.

Erosion of trust

While the mainstream media faces the brunt of diktats on what to air and what to avoid, the tentacles of censorship have further spread on the internet and social media, considered the strength of PTI and its typically younger supporters.

On more than six occasions in the last one year, different social media apps such as Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok and X have faced restrictions, with three instances in just the last one month. All three instances coincided with online events organised by the PTI.

On January 22, government officials indicated that they cannot guarantee unrestricted access to the internet before and on election day.

Solangi, the interim information minister, said during a news conference that the recent issue of internet access was caused due to “technical reasons” and there was no way he could issue a “guarantee” that this would not happen in future.

Ahmed Shamim Pirzada, director-general of the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, the telecom regulator, also said in the same presser, that existing systems were being “upgraded” without providing details.

“Our system is being upgraded, and these [internet accessibility] problems could continue for two, three months,” he added.

Ramsha Jahangir, a policy and communications expert at the Global Network Initiative (GNI), an organisation focused on freedom of expression and privacy in technology, said such incidents and comments are only proof of “a longstanding pattern of censorship” in Pakistan.

“In the context of elections, internet shutdowns specifically prevent individuals from exercising free expression about the elections, undermine the watchdog role of journalists and media, and obstruct the efforts of those documenting elections, which limits information integrity,” Jahangir told Al Jazeera.

These concerns were also expressed by journalists, who say that if internet access is restricted on polling day, it could gravely impact their coverage.

An Islamabad-based journalist, member of the election cell of a newly launched TV channel, says the recent news conference by the interim information minister left him and his colleagues worried about performing their duties.

“These kinds of things add extra pressure to a day which is already stressful. Imagine, if there are internet restrictions, how will we be able to coordinate with our correspondent out in the field? “ the journalist told Al Jazeera. “How can we prepare for those situations?”

“While some large media organisations have DSNGs [Digital Satellite News Gathering units] in 10-12 cities, the rest of us rely heavily on WhatsApp and other social media apps to collect information. If the internet ends up being restricted, are we going to rely on only those few cities to give election results of a country as big as Pakistan?” he asked. DSNGs allow television crews to remote and broadcast live from the spot.

Jahangir of GNI agreed, saying any restriction on internet access could lead to further erosion of trust and the fairness of the elections.

“This brazen disregard of democratic principles sends a chilling signal that Pakistan is becoming an inhospitable ground for both freedom of expression and business,” she added.

Lopsided coverage

The targeting of Khan and the PTI, and the blackout of their political messaging, has led to electoral coverage that is bereft of the almost festive feel of previous campaigns in the run-up to the elections.

A journalist recalls that in December last year, he had commissioned a segment where people in different areas of the city were asked to share which party would they vote for in the polls.

“The constituency where the vox pop was done, was a stronghold of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) and over 60 percent of respondents said they will vote for them, with other 40 percent naming PTI. Despite that, we were instructed by the management to drop it,” he said.

The PMLN is the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who returned recently from years in exile, and has seen multiple corruption cases against him dropped by courts, sparking speculation that he is the military’s favoured candidate in the coming elections.

The Islamabad-based journalist said he fears the closer Pakistan gets to election day, the harsher these restrictions will get to sideline the PTI and promote the PMLN and Sharif.

“What I personally feel is that these orders to promote PMLN will increase while PTI and its candidates, even though they are independent, will be pushed aside,” he said.

Mehmood, the senior official of the Lahore-based channel, says there was while there was “undoubted” manipulation in the run-up to the polls in 2018 too, things are far worse this time, and there’s barely even a whiff of “fair competition”.

“Back in 2018, we were never asked to black out any party. Even though Nawaz Sharif was sentenced and there were restrictions on him, his party, their candidates were all able to campaign. This time, there is no PTI or their symbol on a ballot,” Mehmood said.

“The coverage is completely lopsided now. There is no level playing field. The latest instruction to remove the candidate’s party affiliation or PTI flag means the idea is complete erasure, so people don’t know who the PTI candidate is.”
Pakistan social media outages squeeze Imran Khan party’s last bastion (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [1/25/2024 3:58 AM, Adnan Aamir, 293K, Neutral]
Social media disruptions in Pakistan have raised concerns over internet connectivity and access to information in the run-up to the country’s Feb. 8 election.

The government says recent outages were caused by technical glitches. But the timing has fueled speculation that the ruling establishment is throttling access to target the campaigning of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.

This past Saturday, social media users across Pakistan experienced disruptions just as the PTI was holding a "virtual rally." This was verified by Netblocks, an internet monitoring organization.

"Confirmed: Live metrics show a nation-scale disruption to social media platforms across Pakistan, including X/Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube," Netblocks said on the X platform. "The incident comes as persecuted opposition leader Imran Khan’s political party, PTI, launches its second virtual gathering."

On Jan. 7, a similar nationwide disruption occurred while the PTI was holding a virtual fundraiser.

Khan was ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in April 2022 and has been jailed since August over a range of corruption allegations, all of which he denies. His PTI has been under heavy pressure from the powerful military establishment since its supporters attacked army installations in May, when Khan was initially arrested.

Earlier this month, the party was stripped of its trademark cricket bat symbol -- a nod to Khan’s storied career on the pitch -- in effect forcing its candidates to run independently. Most experts believe the establishment now favors the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who returned from exile late last year and has had his image rehabilitated.

Sabookh Syed, political analyst in Islamabad, told Nikkei Asia that social media is the last bastion for Khan’s party. "There is no coverage of PTI on TV media and hence they are left with social media to spread their political message," he said, suggesting the establishment and caretaker administration want to deny the PTI any benefits from online campaigning.

Facing criticism over the outages, however, the government sought to explain the problems.

Interim Information Minister Murtaza Solangi told reporters on Monday that the interruptions were caused by technical issues, stressing there is "no guarantee that such incidents would not occur in the future."

At the same news conference, an official from the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority said citizens should expect more such glitches "for the next two to three months."

Syed believes the apparent internet clampdown may only fuel public support for the PTI, still generally considered the country’s most popular party. "Disruptions of social media give a message that there is even no space for PTI in the digital sphere," rallying citizens behind the party, he argued.

During the PTI’s online events, many citizens reportedly used virtual private networks to circumvent the restrictions. As election tensions build, some pundits have voiced concerns that the government may go even further -- completely shutting down the internet shortly before the polls and only restoring access when the results have been announced.

Syed -- who is also president of the Digital Media Alliance of Pakistan, an association of independent online journalism platforms -- believes that it is highly likely that internet access will be fully suspended on election day. "Since PTI’s entire political campaigning is based on use of social media ... an internet outage will mostly likely be designed to target PTI," he said.

Others are not convinced that an internet blackout is imminent.

Nighat Dad, executive director of the Digital Rights Foundation, is doubtful. "There can be some targeted disruptions, but completely blocking the internet will result in a severe backlash against the government," she said.

Arzak Khan, an internet governance expert in Quetta, also thinks the odds of a blanket shutdown before or during election day are low, as this would affect many critical infrastructure systems. He said there is a possibility of the government using "targeted internet shutdowns in specific areas and regions owing to security concerns, but they are more difficult to detect and identify."

He warned that choking access to the internet affects the free flow of information, opinions and expression -- all necessary to build public trust and facilitate free and fair elections. This would "threaten the legitimacy of the electoral process," he said.

Lost in the debate over the fate of online access is Pakistan’s struggling economy. In the modern digital world, restricting the internet comes with huge costs that the South Asian nation can ill afford.

"According to recent research findings, a 24-hour suspension of internet services leads to a substantial financial setback of 1.3 billion rupees ($4.7 million), equivalent to a remarkable 0.57% of the nation’s daily GDP average," Khan said. "As the digital economy expands, it will become even more expensive for nations to shut down the internet or bear the consequences."

Dad, from the Digital Rights Foundation, argued that anyone considering an internet cutoff should abandon the idea before it is too late. "The disruption of social media and internet is a misdirected step by the government," she said. "It’s against the constitution [and] court orders, and therefore it must be avoided at all costs."
Pakistan-Iran Airstrikes: Who is Paying the Price? (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/24/2024 6:11 AM, Mariyam Suleman Anees, 201K, Neutral]
On January 16 and 17, Iran and Pakistan engaged in tit-for-tat airstrikes in the border provinces of Balochistan and Sistan-Baluchestan. Both sides claimed they had targeted militant camps across the border.

However, Iran’s strikes hit Sabz Koh, a small village in Panjgur district in Balochistan, Pakistan, where allegedly civilians, mostly children and women were killed and injured. Several houses and a mosque were also left in ruins.

Following the Iranian strikes, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said that “Pakistan reserved the right to retaliate.” And this is exactly what it did.

The following day, Pakistan carried out military strikes in the border village of Saravan in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan, claiming to have targeted the “hideouts used by the terrorist organizations.”

Pakistan also immediately suspended all official joint initiatives with Iran, recalling its ambassador from Tehran and expelling the Iranian envoy in Islamabad. Similar reactions emerged from the Iranian side, when Iran’s Foreign Ministry’s Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani slammed the strikes on Iranian soil and demanded an explanation from the Pakistani government on the matter.

However, reflecting the love-hate relationship that the two countries share, Iran’s Foreign Ministry announced that “it would not allow its ‘enemies’ to strain its amicable and brotherly relation with Islamabad.” Within days, Iran and Pakistan set in motion steps to restore diplomatic relations. Their ambassadors are expected to be returning to each other’s capitals.

While this positive development suggests an ebbing of tensions, it may be at best temporary. “For now, Pakistan and Iran might pretend to have calmed down the situation, but they can’t have completely forgotten what recently happened,” said Wajahat S. Khan, a Pakistani defense journalist.

Over the last few days, a lot has been discussed about Iran’s current positioning in the geopolitical situation, the proxy wars abroad, and their connections with the recent attack in Pakistan. But not much is discussed about who bears the direct brunt of the escalating tensions at the Iran-Pakistan border.

Pakistan and Iran share a 900-kilometer-long border. The ethnic Baloch make up the largest population on both sides; many of them share familial relations. Both provinces are the poorest in their respective countries, where border trade provides a large portion of the economic activity for the locals.

Iran has a long-standing aggression toward Baloch Sunni sectarian militant groups operating in its Sistan-Baluchestan province. On the Pakistani side, the Pakistani state perceives Baloch nationalist and militant groups as a threat.

Both governments have a history of cooperating to weaken Baloch nationalist and sectarian groups operating on their side of the border. Both have from time to time carried out operations against the groups and have occasionally also pointed fingers at each other for not doing enough and for allegedly supporting and providing safe havens for the anti-state groups on their respective frontiers.

There is some speculation that the recent attacks might have been coordinated ones aimed at weakening nationalist and sectarian groups or at least spreading fear among them regarding potential future attacks.

But looking at Iran’s current geopolitical standing, many believe that this might not be the case.

Regardless, this comes at the cost of the lives of civilians, predominantly Baloch women and children in both countries. With the recent attacks, a new fear and uncertainty has gripped people living in the border districts.

“It seems like we [residents of the border towns] are being dragged into something we have nothing to do with,” said Ilyas Baloch, a resident of Gwadar, who has worked at the border in the past. The local economy relies on cross-border trade, whether legal or illegal. The closure of the border at Panjgur even for a day after the recent attack evoked great concern among the people, he said.

Their fear is not without basis.

“People have families on either side, they fear losing connections. Besides, we rely on Iranian fuel [for] all our vehicles, including buses, trucks, and even fishing boats. The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used in our households, a huge chunk of food items as well as construction material come from Iran,” Baloch, the Gwadar resident said.

Last week, a Pakistani delegation to the Joint Trade Committee Meetings in Iran’s port city of Chabahar was also called back. The Deputy Commissioner of Gwadar Aurangzeb Badini, who was part of the delegation, told The Diplomat that they had to return following “instructions from the federal government.”

“The annual Joint Trade Committee Meetings facilitate the signing of new trade agreements and renewing existing ones. But the recent airstrikes disrupted this year’s meetings. This situation has raised concerns about the potential cancellation or delay of many important trade deals,” said Shams-ul-Haq, president of the Gwadar Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI).

There might be delays, but Iran cannot afford to cancel or terminate its trade deals with Pakistan, put a halt on cross-border trade, or let the tensions escalate.

In fact, Iran has been pushing for more trade deals with Pakistan, which the latter for years was hesitant to go ahead with, especially after the 2013 U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, gas, and other petrochemical products.

Due to these sanctions, oil is brought in through illegal routes. According to Pakistan’s Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), around 4,000 tons of Iranian fuel is smuggled daily into Pakistan. Illicit Iranian fuel has for decades provided an economic source for thousands of people in the poverty-stricken province.

“Stability in the Pakistan-Iran situation is crucial for this region. A border closure means thousands of people with no source of income,” said Haq.

Iran’s legal trade with Pakistan is worth around $1.5 billion per year. In 2021, the two governments planned to set up six border crossings and markets between the two countries to increase trade, but the plans have seen little progress. In January 2023, the two sides signed 39 memorandums of understanding. Most of them are pending.

A long-standing deal of importance is the construction of a 2,775-km-long LPG pipeline between Iran and Pakistan, which was agreed upon in 1995. While Iran had completed its side of the pipeline by 2011, Pakistan has been hesitant to move forward. After more than a decade and persistent pressure from Iran, Pakistan has failed to get its act together, adding to Iran’s frustration.

More than anyone, people living along the Iran-Pakistan border are keen for peace and stability as they want to be able to earn a living through cross-border trade. They want Iran-Pakistan projects to move forward.

The targets of the recent strikes may have been the militant groups. But it is the Baloch people on both sides of the border that are bearing the brunt of bilateral tensions.
India
Red Sea Conflict Prompts India’s Navy to Flex Its Muscles (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [1/25/2024 12:02 AM, Rajesh Roy, 810K, Neutral]
India is deploying a growing number of warships to counter rebel attacks on commercial ships plying around the Middle East, while steering clear of joining the official U.S.-led force in the Red Sea, as it looks to protect its ties with Iran.

Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked ships passing to and from Egypt’s Suez Canal, a heavily used trade route vital to India’s crude oil imports. The Houthis, a militia backed by Iran, said they are targeting ships in retaliation over Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas. The attacks have snarled global shipping and widened the Middle East conflict. In recent days, after U.S. and U.K. strikes on Houthi weaponry, the rebels have turned their attention to U.S. ships.

India has sent 10 warships to the area stretching from the north and central Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden, up from the two that are usually stationed in the region, according to serving and former security officials.

The ships are monitoring India-flagged ships, but have also been the first responders in a number of recent incidents. Last week, India’s guided-missile destroyer INS Visakhapatnam responded to a distress call from U.S.-owned bulk carrier Genco Picardy, which came under a drone attack in the Gulf of Aden.

Yet India isn’t participating in the U.S.-led coalition to ensure safe passage to vessels in the Red Sea, largely because of its policy of participating only in United Nations missions, said Indian officials and experts. U.S. allegations that Iran is backing the Houthi attacks also complicate India’s response, given New Delhi’s friendly ties with Tehran.

Last week, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar raised concerns over attacks on commercial ships in Tehran on a visit that was days after the U.S. and the U.K. launched airstrikes on Houthi targets.

“Joining a U.S.-led coalition would mean looking at the conflict through the prism of the U.S….where the U.S. has taken a position that this is Iranian instigation,” said Harsh Pant, vice president for foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based international relations think tank. India has long sought to telegraph its independence from the influence of major powers in its foreign policy dealings.

Indian navy operations nevertheless reflect growing cooperation with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China, and rely in part on U.S. military equipment, officials said. A $3 billion military procurement deal with the U.S. for 31 Predator drones, half of which are intended for the navy, will further boost India’s capabilities. A delivery date hasn’t been set yet.

“There is already adequate coordination happening with the U.S. and other like-minded nations on the naval front. All the channels of communications are open,” said Biswajit Dasgupta, a former vice admiral and commander-in-chief of India’s Eastern Naval Command.

India closely monitors Chinese vessels in the Indian Ocean region, and its officials say periodic efforts by China to dock research vessels in nearby countries are a pretext for maritime surveillance. The Indian navy is currently watching a Chinese research vessel on its way to the Maldives at a time when the archipelago nation’s new President Mohamed Muizzu is looking to deepen ties with Beijing, and end a longstanding but small Indian troop presence.

In recent days, India diverted its two Predator drones—a basic version of the tool on lease from the U.S.—from routine operations to provide precision footage over troubled ships. In one such incident this month, the drone surveillance was part of an operation by Indian marine commandos to thwart a hijack attempt aboard Liberian-flagged bulk carrier MV Lila Norfolk in the Arabian Sea, the Indian navy said.

In a little over a decade, the navy has added more than a dozen warships armed with missiles and torpedoes that are all produced domestically. The additions bring the total number of warships in India’s fleet to 140, and the navy aims to add about half that number to its fleet in the next few years, with almost all of them made in India.

The navy began ramping up operations in around 2017, putting specialized equipment and personnel on warships on routine patrol to equip them to quickly respond to a range of distress calls, from hijacking to natural disasters, according to Indian officials. Since 2018, the Indian navy has also been operating a maritime security-information-sharing hub that receives real-time intelligence on vessel movements via radar stations scattered across Indian Ocean nations.

This year, India became a full member of the multilateral Combined Maritime Forces initiative, based in Bahrain with representatives from a dozen countries including the U.S., Australia, Japan, U.K., Sri Lanka and the Maldives. The new operation to secure the Red Sea is taking place under that initiative.

“Our navy vessels, navy ships are there, patrolling the area and they are trying to do their best to secure the Indian shipping lines and giving support to others,” Randhir Jaiswal, India’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, said last week. “So that is where we are, we are looking at the unfolding situation. We aren’t part of any multilateral arrangement as of now.”

At least one of the attacks has come surprisingly close to India. In late December, Japanese-owned tanker MV Chem Pluto, was headed from Saudi Arabia to India when it was struck about 200 nautical miles off the Indian coast. The U.S. military said the drone was fired from Iran.

Jaishankar’s recent visit to Tehran also visit also coincided with Iran’s strikes in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan, at what it said were anti-Iran groups, prompting a tit-for-tat response from Pakistan.

In a joint statement with the Iranian foreign minister, Jaishankar said the international community was concerned about the increased risks to shipping, which also threaten India’s economic interests.

“This fraught situation isn’t to the benefit of any party and this must be clearly recognized,” said Jaishankar.
India Named in Canadian Inquiry Into Election Interference (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [1/24/2024 1:39 PM, Vipal Monga, 810K, Neutral]
A Canadian commission appointed to probe foreign interference in its elections asked the Canadian government on Wednesday for documents related to possible Indian involvement in the 2019 and 2021 elections.

This is the first time India has been named by the inquiry as a potential foreign actor in Canadian politics, joining China and Russia as countries that Canada suspects of trying to interfere in its internal affairs. India’s inclusion in the probe could worsen its relationship with Canada, which is already at low ebb following Canadian allegations that India was involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist in Vancouver.

India’s High Commission in Ottawa didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Canada’s relations with India took a hit last year, when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada had evidence that agents of the Indian government were involved in killing a Canadian Sikh activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in Vancouver last summer.

New Delhi has responded to the allegation with outraged denials. In October, it forced Ottawa to withdraw more than 40 Canadian diplomats from India.

Trudeau’s allegations were bolstered when U.S. prosecutors in November alleged in an indictment that Indian national Nikhil Gupta was working with an Indian government employee to have a vocal Sikh critic of India assassinated in New York last year. The indictment included details that suggested Gupta was aware of similar attempts on activists in Canada.

The leader of Canada’s New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh, who is a Sikh, has been pushing for the inclusion of India in the interference inquiry. The NDP, one of Canada’s opposition parties, has a governing agreement with Trudeau’s Liberal Party, keeping his minority government in power.

Canada’s government named China, Russia and “other foreign states or nonstate actors,” as targets of the probe when it announced creation of the inquiry in September.
Canada Officially Adds India to Its Probe of Election Meddling (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [1/24/2024 4:30 PM, Laura Dhillon Kane, 5543K, Neutral]
Canada’s public inquiry into foreign interference will examine allegations that India sought to meddle in recent national elections, potentially inflaming already-elevated tensions between the two countries.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced an inquiry last year after intelligence documents were leaked to media outlets claiming China interfered in Canada’s elections by supporting candidates friendly to President Xi Jinping’s government. The inquiry is set to hold its first public hearings next week.

The inquiry’s commissioner is tasked with examining potential interference by China, Russia and other state and non-state actors during the 2019 and 2021 elections. No other countries are explicitly named, but national-security officials have also pointed to India and Iran as other top sources of foreign meddling.

The commission confirmed Wednesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will be investigated — according to a statement, the inquiry has requested information and documents related to alleged election interference. But it did not provide details about the allegations.

Trudeau stunned the world in September when he accused India of orchestrating the murder of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil. Masked assailants had gunned down Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian who was designated a terrorist by India because of his support for an independent Sikh nation called Khalistan.

The allegation upended Canada-India relations. Modi’s administration forcefully denied the claim, calling it “absurd and motivated.” It temporarily suspended visas for Canadians and threatened to revoke the immunity of two-thirds of Canada’s diplomats, forcing them to leave India. Trade talks between the countries have been on pause for months.

But Canada’s claim appeared to be reinforced in November when federal prosecutors in the US accused an Indian government agent of directing a thwarted plot to kill a Sikh separatist in New York. India struck a more cooperative tone with the US, saying it had convened a committee to look into the allegations.

The foreign-interference inquiry is likely to further strain Canada’s relationships with India and China. Trudeau and Xi both expelled one diplomat each in a tit-for-tat over the interference allegations that emerged last year, and China has demanded Canada “stop hyping up China-related lies and false information.”

The first hearings will focus on the challenges associated with disclosing classified national security intelligence to the public. The director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Agency, David Vigneault, and Canada’s Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc are among the speakers.
Commission seeks information on India in Canada foreign interference probe (Reuters)
Reuters [1/24/2024 11:56 AM, Ismail Shakil, 5239K, Negative]
An independent commission probing alleged foreign interference in Canada asked the Trudeau government on Wednesday to share information about possible meddling in elections by India, a development that could aggravate already-tense Ottawa-New Delhi relations.

The commission was set up by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government in September to conduct a public inquiry into foreign meddling in Canadian affairs after reports of alleged Chinese attempts to influence elections and mounting pressure for an inquiry. Beijing has repeatedly denied any interference.

The commission said in a statement on Wednesday that it had requested the Canadian government to provide documents "relating to alleged interference by India related to the 2019 and 2021 elections."

"The commission will also examine the flow of information within the federal government in relation to these issues, evaluate the actions taken in response, assess the federal government’s capacity to detect, deter, and counter foreign interference, and make recommendations on these issues," it said.

The commission, led by Quebec Judge Marie-Josee Hogue, is charged with conducting an independent public inquiry into allegations of attempted foreign interference in Canadian affairs by China, Russia and others. It is expected to complete an interim report by May 3 and deliver its final report by the end of this year.

Diplomatic relations between India and Canada have frayed in recent months over Canada’s allegations linking Indian agents to the murder of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia last year. India has rejected that allegation. Canadian authorities have yet to charge anyone with the killing.

The Indian High Commission in Ottawa did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.
France and India to discuss accord on small nuclear reactors (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [1/24/2024 5:15 AM, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Rajesh Kumar Singh, and Ania Nussbaum, 71K, Positive]
India is aiming to cooperate with France on the development of small modular nuclear reactors, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government seeks to expand its options to curb the country’s reliance on coal.

Electricite de France SA and India’s Department of Atomic Energy are likely to complete a preliminary agreement to collaborate on the so-far largely unproven technology as French President Emmanuel Macron visits New Delhi this week, according to people familiar with the plans, who asked not to be identified as the details are private.

India’s atomic energy department didn’t respond to an emailed request for comment. The country’s Ministry of External Affairs declined to comment, as did a representative for EDF. The utility’s Chief Executive Officer Luc Remont is part of a delegation traveling with Macron, according to a French official.

India, the world’s third-biggest carbon dioxide emitter, is seeking to rapidly expand its use of nuclear power over the next decade as it aims to both decarbonize and meet rising energy demand. Nuclear plants accounted for less than 3% of electricity generation in 2022, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.

Russia and the US have also offered to jointly develop a small modular reactor with India, and the issue was raised in talks between President Joe Biden and Modi last year, according to officials aware of the details who asked not to be named because discussions were private.

Dozens of companies globally are working on advanced reactor designs, with most pitched as more flexible and lower-cost than existing plants. The outlook for the technology was dented in November, when NuScale Power Corp. canceled plans to build the first commercial power plant in the US that would have used several small modular reactors.
India Rolls Out the Red Carpet for Macron (Foreign Policy)
Foreign Policy [1/24/2024 5:30 PM, Michael Kugelman, 315K, Positive]
French President Emmanuel Macron will be the chief guest at India’s Republic Day festivities this week. Macron wasn’t Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first choice; he planned to host U.S. President Joe Biden and other leaders from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad. Biden declined the invitation last month. There is something fitting about Macron being this year’s chief guest. Last July, Modi attended France’s Bastille Day celebrations, 25 years after then-French President Jacques Chirac visited New Delhi as the Republic Day chief guest to launch a new strategic partnership with India.

Macron will be the sixth French leader accorded the honor of India’s chief guest on Republic Day and the fourth since 1998. His trip to New Delhi is an opportunity to showcase the relationship between the two countries, which shares similarities with some of India’s deep partnerships—while remaining quite distinct from India’s partnerships with other Western powers.

For nearly three decades, the India-France relationship has been largely free of tension, bringing to mind how Indian officials characterize India’s ties with Russia: as a “time-tested” partnership that has rarely if ever experienced a crisis. The arms trade between New Delhi and Paris is also strong, reminiscent of India’s partnerships with the United States and Israel. The three countries are India’s top arms suppliers after Russia—and France exported the most weapons to India between 2017 and 2021.

Much like India’s relations with the other members of the Quad (Australia, Japan, and the United States), its ties with France are strengthened by strategic convergences around geopolitics in Asia. India and France both view China’s growing regional influence with concern, and they each have island territories in the heart of the Indo-Pacific. Unsurprisingly, their strategic interests are now coalescing around the need for deeper engagement with the Pacific islands to balance China.

Finally, India-France relations have become increasingly multifaceted in recent years, with expanding cooperation in defense, renewable energy, science, and technology. This reflects a trend among India’s relations with the United States, the European Union, and Japan, among others. All these relationships can be classified as strategic partnerships—but they attained that status after Chirac’s visit to New Delhi in 1998.

There is much that sets the India-France relationship apart from New Delhi’s ties with other close Western partners. Both advocate for strategic autonomy, even if they each take different approaches. India’s strategic autonomy revolves around eschewing alliances, while France embraces alliances but still defies them when doing so serves its own interests. Their insistence on foreign-policy independence furthers common strategic goals. France, for example, aims to balance both U.S. and Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific, which India supports.

India has also achieved success with France on nuclear power cooperation, contrasting with New Delhi’s struggles to capitalize on a civil nuclear deal with Washington. Finally, France doesn’t typically criticize India about values-based issues such as human rights and democracy—unlike the United States or Canada. That allows France to avoid a prime trigger for tensions in the partnership.

Modi’s plan to bring the Quad leaders to India for Republic Day may have fallen through, but the consolation prize was another key partner with prime Pacific power—a testament to New Delhi’s convening clout, and to its status as a major global player with plenty of friends to choose from.
China’s defence ministry spokesperson says India border issue ‘left over from history’ (Reuters)
Reuters [1/25/2024 3:23 AM, Laurie Chen, 5.2M, Neutral]
A Chinese defence ministry spokesperson said on Thursday that India-China border tensions were "an issue left over from history and not the whole of China-India relations".
"It is unwise and inappropriate for the Indian side to insist on linking the border situation with bilateral relations," spokesperson Wu Qian told a monthly press briefing.

A senior Indian official told Reuters earlier this month that India could ease its heightened scrutiny of Chinese investments if the two countries’ border remained peaceful, the first signal that the four-year-old curbs could be lifted.
India to Push for Relief for Poor Fishermen at WTO Meeting (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [1/24/2024 10:21 AM, Shruti Srivastava, 5543K, Neutral]
India will oppose any move to scrap subsidies for poor fishermen at the World Trade Organization ministerial conference next month, a government official said, as it seeks to protect the livelihoods of 9 million families that depend on fishing.

The Geneva-based trade body will take up the issue of curbing subsidies that contribute to overfishing in order to preserve falling global fish stocks.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will ask for continuation of such subsidies for fishing in exclusive economic zones, especially for poor fishermen, the official told reporters in New Delhi on the condition of anonymity as the matter isn’t public. While India has 25% of the world’s fishermen, it contributes just 4% to global marine exports.

Earlier in 2022, WTO members had agreed to curb harmful subsidies to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing to ensure sustainability of the world’s fish stocks. Data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization shows fish stocks are at risk of collapsing due to overexploitation. This threatens worsening poverty, while impacting livelihood and food security.

New Delhi had earlier argued that subsidies given by the South Asian nation were minuscule compared to developed countries.
India to oppose curbs on subsidies to poor fishermen at WTO meet (Reuters)
Reuters [1/25/2024 4:11 AM, Manoj Kumar, 5.2M, Neutral]
India will oppose any curbs on its subsidies to poor fishermen at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and demand a moratorium on fishing subsidies from advanced countries including the United States, and the European Union, three government officials said.

New Delhi is planning to push its demand for extending subsidies to its roughly nine million poor fishermen operating up to 200 nautical miles from its coast at the WTO Ministerial Conference (MC13), to be held in Abu Dhabi from Feb. 26 to 29, senior government officials told reporters.

In the next round of talks on fisheries, India will demand with like-minded members that advanced countries should agree to a 25-year moratorium on subsidies to their fishing industry operating in international waters, the officials said.

Officials declined to be identified according to government policy on discussions at international forums.

Einar Gunnarsson, opens new tab, chair of the WTO’s fisheries subsidies negotiations committee, has said members will work to reach an agreement on the draft for submission to ministers, aiming to curb subsidies contributing to over-capacity and over-fishing.

In 2022, WTO members reached an initial deal, opens new tab to cut billions of subsidies for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing or fishing of over-fished stocks.

India still has to ratify the agreement, which requires the approval of two-thirds of the WTO’s 164 members to become operational. So far, 55 members including China, the U.S. and many African countries have ratified the agreement.

India is likely to ratify the agreement later this year after the general elections, said one of the officials with direct knowledge of the matter.

The commerce ministry, which is leading India’s negotiations at the WTO, declined to comment.

Global fishing subsidies are estimated at $35.4 billion, according to a 2019 study published in Marine Policy, opens new tab, and China, the EU, the United States, South Korea and Japan are among the top subsidisers.

Developing nations like India need differential treatment for their fishing industry in coming years, which is largely dominated by poor fishermen, officials said.
India Mulls an End to Myanmar Free Movement Border Zone (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/25/2024 12:02 AM, Luke Hunt, 201K, Neutral]
India intends to scrap a free movement zone across it’s border with Myanmar after repatriating about 150 soldiers who crossed the frontier amid heavy fighting launched by the rebel Arakan Army in the north, where the junta is struggling to hold its ground.

The zone had provided a safe area for people fleeing the fighting, which has escalated sharply since October, but Indian Home Minister Amit Shah has proposed an end to the zone, to be enforced by the construction of a fence along the 1,631-kilometer border.

During a visit to the northeastern Indian state of Assam, Shah said his government had “decided to fence the entire open India-Myanmar border,” adding that is “going to end this facility,” according to Times of India.

The announcement followed the repatriation of 151 soldiers through an airlift organized by the Myanmar military out of the Mizoram Lawngtlai district, including nine who had been wounded, four critically.

Gen. Manoj Pande told a press conference earlier this month that a further 416 Myanmar soldiers had been repatriated after anti-junta forces seized control of key towns and military bases near the Indo-Myanmar border, alongside Myanmar citizens who sought refuge in Mizoram.

The free movement zone is largely uninhabited but enables relatives and locals from either side with passport and visa-free access within 16 kilometers of both sides of a border that cuts across the Himalayan mountains and through heavily forested lowlands.

No timeframe has been set for the construction of the fence, though India has also fenced more than 2,000 kilometers of its border with Pakistan and a further 3,100 kilometers with Bangladesh.

Repatriations follow media reports that Myanmar’s military junta had sentenced six brigadier generals to death and life imprisonment following their surrender to resistance forces in northern Shan State earlier this month.

Losses at the hands of the Arakan Army and other ethnic rebel organizations have also prompted a recruitment drive by the junta, which seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi three years ago, triggering the country’s return to civil conflict.

According to the Than Lwin Times, the junta has faced “grievous losses in nationwide battles resulting in severe depletion of troops,” prompting the governing military council to employ an array of tactics to recruit individuals under the pretext of promoting peace.

It said the junta was exerting pressure on local governors to establish militia units in select townships and villages within the Bago, Magway, and Ayeyarwady regions. Typically, the military is demanding 10 recruits for every hundred people within a village population.

If governors fail to provide recruits, then they risk being classified as part of the People’s Defense Force (PDF), the armed wing of the National Unity Government, which has established itself as the main alternative political party to the junta.

However, many of the villages are bereft of fighting-age men, with many young men and women joining the ranks of the various rebel groups. That has resulted in village chiefs calling on seniors to protect their homes by signing up under the junta.

“We have been informed by village elders that, if we don’t contribute manpower to the militia, our village might be labeled as pro-PDF and blacklisted,” one villager said. “The Military Council indirectly threatened to burn down such villages, leaving us with no choice but to comply.

As a result, he said, “Our village sent five villagers for militia training, but due to our reluctance, only those aged 50 or 60 were asked to register for the sake of the village… We provided these recruits only to avert potential harm to our village.”

In a bid to bolster its ranks the military administration has offered the enlisted militia ranks basic military training and the job of securing villages and communities in return for a monthly salary of 120,000 kyat (about US$57) and a bag of rice.
In India an algorithm declares them dead; they have to prove they’re alive (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [1/24/2024 11:12 PM, Kumar Sambhav, Tapasya, and Divij Joshi, 2060K, Neutral]
Dhuli Chand was 102 years old on September 8, 2022, when he led a wedding procession in Rohtak, a district town in the north Indian state of Haryana.

As is customary in north Indian weddings, he sat on a chariot in his wedding finery, wearing garlands of Indian rupee notes, while a band played celebratory music and family members and villagers accompanied him.

But instead of a bride, Chand was on his way to meet government officials.

Chand resorted to the antic to prove to officials that he was not only alive but also lively. A placard he held proclaimed, in the local dialect: “thara foofa zinda hai”, which literally translates to “your uncle is alive”.

Six months prior, his monthly pension was suddenly stopped because he was declared “dead” in government records.

Under Haryana’s Old Age Samman Allowance scheme, people aged 60 years and above, whose income together with that of their spouse doesn’t exceed 300,000 rupees ($3,600) per annum, are eligible for a monthly pension of 2,750 rupees ($33).

In June 2020, the state started using a newly built algorithmic system – the Family Identity Data Repository or the Parivar Pehchan Patra (PPP) database – to determine the eligibility of welfare claimants.

The PPP is an eight-digit unique ID provided to each family in the state and has details of birth and death, marriage, employment, property, and income tax, among other data, of the family members. It maps every family’s demographic and socioeconomic information by linking several government databases to check their eligibility for welfare schemes.

The state said that the PPP created “authentic, verified and reliable data of all families”, and made it mandatory for citizens to access all welfare schemes.

But in practice, the PPP wrongly marked Chand as “dead”, denying him his pension for several months. Worse, the authorities did not change his “dead” status even when he repeatedly met them in person.

“We went to the district offices at least 10 times, out of which five times he [Chand] also accompanied us,” said Naresh, Chand’s grandson. “Even after several attempts to get this anomaly corrected at the government offices, and after filing a grievance complaint on the chief minister’s portal, nothing happened.”

It was only after Chand carried out the parody of a marriage procession and met a local politician that the authorities finally admitted their mistake and released Chand’s pension.

Chand is not an isolated instance of algorithm failure. According to data presented by the government in the state assembly in August last year, it stopped the pensions of 277,115 elderly citizens and 52,479 widows in a span of three years because they were “dead”.

However, several thousands of these beneficiaries were actually alive and had been wrongfully declared dead either due to incorrect data fed into the PPP database or wrong predictions made by the algorithm.

Such anomalies were not restricted to old-age pensions alone. Beneficiaries of disability and widow pensions, and other welfare schemes such as subsidised food, have also been excluded because the PPP algorithm made wrong predictions about their incomes or employment, excluding them from the eligibility criteria.

When people who had been wrongfully erased by the algorithm went to government officials to get the records corrected, they faced red tape. Many were shunted from one office to another, and made to file endless applications to prove the obvious – that they were in fact alive.

The ordeal faced by hundreds of thousands of citizens in getting their data corrected has made PPP one of the most controversial government plans of the Haryana government in recent years. The opposition party has termed it ‘Permanent Pareshani Patra’ (permanent inconvenience document) and promised that it will scrap the programme if it comes to power in the next assembly elections, due in 2024.

The state, however, continues to not just defend but even expand the programme. Sofia Dahiya, secretary of the Citizen Resources Information Department that handles the functioning of PPP, in September 2022 told Al Jazeera: “PPP was easing and improving the delivery of services to the right beneficiaries and preventing leakages through the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning. The interlinking of different databases was done to get an integrated database which was the ‘single source of truth’.”

India spends roughly 13 percent of its gross domestic product, or close to $256bn, on providing welfare benefits to about half the country’s population. Worried that such benefits were being usurped by ineligible claimants, the federal and several state governments have increasingly relied on technology to eliminate welfare fraud.

In the past few years, at least half a dozen states have adopted algorithmic systems to predict the eligibility of citizens for welfare schemes. Over the past year Al Jazeera, in partnership with the Pulitzer Center’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) Accountability Network, investigated the use and impact of such welfare algorithms.

Profiling families

Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar launched the PPP programme in July 2019 and a year later made it mandatory for all welfare benefits.

In the absence of privacy laws, the opposition parties contested the move to gather the personal data of citizens for building out the PPP. The government argued that it allowed “proactive” delivery of welfare without the claimants having to show any documents or needing a field verification. In September 2021, it gave legal sanction to the programme by passing the Haryana Parivar Pehchan Act.

Within a year, however, massive problems with the PPP data started cropping up. After Chand’s ‘wedding procession’ stunt hit the headlines, thousands of poor thronged the district offices of the social welfare department, complaining about their exclusion from the schemes. The public outcry forced the government to launch grievance redressal camps across the state to review PPP data.

On August 29, 2023, Chief Minister Khattar admitted that out of the total 63,353 beneficiaries whose old-age pensions were halted based on PPP data, 44,050 (or 70 percent) were later found to be eligible. Though Khattar claimed the government had corrected most of the erroneous records and restored the benefits of the wrongfully excluded, media reports suggest that errors still persist.

Algorithmic black box

The government did not respond to Al Jazeera’s Right To Information (RTI) applications seeking information on the design and functioning of the database to ascertain what led to the errors in the PPP database.

A few publicly available government documents, however, provide a peek into the workings of the programme.

To build the database, the government first collected demographic and identity data of the families, including their Aadhaar numbers, the biometric-based unique identity number assigned to every Indian citizen, their age proof, bank accounts, and tax identification numbers through data-entry operators at the village level.

A centralised electronic system then used Aadhaar-based authentication to match the identities of citizens in other government databases such as birth and death registries, land and property records, government employee databases, electricity consumption, and income tax return databases, among others, to build their comprehensive socioeconomic profiles.

This data was then used to “electronically” verify the annual income, age and other eligibility conditions of the applicants. Where electronic verification was not possible due to the unavailability of data, physical field verification was carried out. In cases where the physical verification did not pan out, the family income is derived by “logic-based artificial intelligence [AI].”

The chief minister’s office and the departments administering the PPP and the old-age pension schemes did not respond to Al Jazeera’s queries asking about the logic, formula and source code used by the AI. Neither did it clarify if the errors in the PPP were a result of wrong data entry or incorrect predictions by the AI. The government has also not responded to Dhuli Chand’s RTI query asking the authorities to explain why PPP had marked him as “dead.”

Khattar told the state Assembly that families could contest the income verification carried out by the PPP through “designated online mechanisms”.

But even the families whose data was eventually corrected told Al Jazeera that the process of grappling with an unresponsive official mechanism was onerous and time-consuming.

Death by data

Ram Chander and his wife Ompati, both 60, are residents of Chhichhrana village in Haryana. In March 2022, the couple found out that their old-age pension, which had started only six months ago, had been stopped as they were declared dead in the PPP database.

Ram Chander filed multiple complaints with various government offices but to no avail. That May, he submitted to government officials a notary-signed affidavit saying he and his wife were alive and that their pension be restarted.

In July 2022, the PPP database corrected their status to “Alive” but that error continued in another government database. The local data entry operator accepted their request of “Mark as alive” and that was finally approved after they presented themselves at the office of the Additional Deputy Commissioner (ADC) who heads the implementation of PPP at the district level. The duo’s pension restarted some six months after they had been cut off.

“I have been continuously visiting the office of the ADC since March 2022,” Chander told Al Jazeera in September 2022. “They told me that the mistake had been corrected. Then I visited the local data-entry operator and found out that my status was still ‘dead’, and so I again went to the ADC office. This kept happening every time.”

Al Jazeera met several other families in Haryana who had been denied their pensions due to errors in PPP.

Daya Kor, 64, lives with her family of two sons, a daughter-in-law and two grandchildren. After her husband Omprakash’s death in 1996, she started receiving the monthly widow pension of the state. Widowed women currently receive 2,750 rupees ($33) every month under the scheme. But Kor’s pension was stopped in March 2022. As per PPP records, she and her granddaughter were earning an annual income of 600,000 rupees ($7,200) each. Her granddaughter was just nine years old.

Kor’s family told Al Jazeera that the only earning member in the family was her elder son Devendar, 37, who worked as a bus driver for a private school – earning around 7,000 rupees ($84) per month – and also has a side job as a part-time farmer.

“If the family income was over 12 lakh rupees, why would we need the 2,500 rupees pension?” he asked.

Daya Kor’s pension was finally restarted, but her family cannot forget the ordeal it went through in the process.

“For the correction in PPP, I was told at the ADC office to get an income certificate,” Devendar said. “But to get the income certificate, I am being asked for my PPP. I do not understand how to deal with this.”
NSB
Bangladesh Police Abuses Rampant in Rohingya Camps (Human Rights Watch)
Human Rights Watch [1/24/2024 8:54 AM, Meenakshi Ganguly, 190K, Negative]
Earlier this month, a Rohingya woman in a refugee camp in Bangladesh reported that a police officer had been stalking her for a year. She said that on the night of January 7, he entered her home under the pretext of a search operation and attempted to rape her.

The Bangladesh Armed Police Battalion (APBn), deployed to provide security in refugee camps, have yet to investigate the case. A neighbor said that when the 22-year-old mother of two shouted for help, some local residents stepped forward, but were stopped by two men in civilian clothes claiming to be members of the security team. The men only left after more people had gathered. The woman’s husband said he has since received anonymous threats on the phone, and fears that he might be arrested or his family killed. “I think we will leave the camp and either go to Myanmar or take a boat to Indonesia,” he told Human Rights Watch.

The Bangladesh authorities should promptly and impartially investigate the matter. To provide genuine security in the camps, they need to take refugees’ accusations of police violence seriously.

In the past decade, nearly a million Rohingya have fled persecution by the Myanmar military and are now living precariously in sprawling refugee settlements in Bangladesh.

Human Rights Watch has previously reported on allegations of extortion, arbitrary arrests, and the torture and harassment of refugees by camp police. Soon after, several units were transferred and the refugees reported that the abuses had reduced. But, according to recent interviews, these abusive practices are again on the rise.

Activists say Bangladeshi authorities seldom hold the police in the camps to account for human rights violations, which creates a climate of impunity for ongoing abuses including sexual assault. “The APBn police force has been targeting the Rohingya girls and women that they find attractive, threatening to arrest male family members if they refuse to cooperate,” a Rohingya activist said. “Male APBn members just enter shelters, and if the men are away, they harass the women.”

Bangladesh police have received various trainings to strengthen gender-responsive policing, but unless the government and donors to these programs ensure that security forces responsible for abuses are credibly prosecuted, sexual assault and other serious crimes will persist.
Bhutan seeks India deals in US$15 billion hydropower push to raise national happiness (South China Morning Post)
South China Morning Post [1/25/2024 2:32 AM, Biman Mukherji, 951K, Neutral]
The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan is aiming to ramp up its rich hydrological resources with an eye on boosting the country’s happiness quotient.

Home to glacial lakes and cascading rivers, the landlocked country is looking to unlock value in its abundant water resources through partnerships with neighbouring India, and explore business opportunities outside its borders.

“We are talking to a lot of strategic partners in India today, and we also look forward to talking to strategic credible international partners,” said Ujjwal Deep Dahal, CEO of Druk Holding and Investments, the commercial arm of the Royal Government of Bhutan.

Perched between China and India, Bhutan is known for its pioneering of a Gross National Happiness index, an alternative economic gauge that takes into account factors such as recreation, emotional well-being, ecological diversity and living standards.

Hydrological generation contributes up to 15 per cent of Bhutan’s GDP, which also relies heavily on agriculture and tourism.

Bhutan’s total installed capacity for hydrological power is currently about 2,500 megawatts, and it will add around 1,000 megawatts by next year. The government hopes to have a capacity of 4,000 megawatts in the medium term, according to Dahal.

“We are looking to discuss more hydro projects to the tune of about 10,000 megawatts,” he said, adding that these would be planned over the next decade.

On Bhutan’s National Day last month, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck had announced the nation would focus on developing Gelephu Mindfulness City, a special economic zone, as well as prioritise hydropower development.

Gelephu Mindfulness City will be developed in Bhutan’s Sarpang district, which borders Chirang district in India’s northeastern Assam state. Gelephu is one of three entry points to Bhutan from India, the others being Samdrup Jongkhar to its east and Phuntsholing to its west.

The success of the Gelephu project would depend on prioritising energy, connectivity and skills upgrades, the Bhutanese king said, adding that the key to energy development would be enhancing the installed capacity of hydropower projects by expediting construction.

The Himalayan state should aim to offer the most competitive electricity prices in the region to boost revenues as well as investment, he said.

Bhutan has been trying to revive its economy after the Covid-19 pandemic battered its aid- and tourism-reliant economy for three years.

There are a couple of hydropower projects planned with India over the long term as well as two in the pipeline, Dahal said, adding that financial details were yet to be finalised.

Cooperation in hydropower development has been a cornerstone of Bhutan’s bilateral ties with India, which buys electricity from the Himalayan kingdom.

The new projects being discussed with India are with strategic partners, including both private and state-run firms, according to Dahal.

For the kingdom to achieve its ambition of building a 10,000-megawatt capacity, financing of more than US$15 billion would be needed – a requirement that would be discussed with strategic partners, Dahal said.

Strategic partners would also have to wrestle with the problem of how to market the surplus power, which would vary from season to season, he added. “We would need to find a market for the surplus power in summer, but it can be consumed within Bhutan during winter.”

Pivot to clean energy

Dahal said the aim of the hydropower projects was to not only pivot the Himalayan kingdom’s industrial development, but also ensure it achieved the goal through clean power.

Bhutan was aiming to consume as much of the additional energy within the country by attracting clean industries based on renewable power, such as data centres, he added.
Data centres are networked facilities whose servers, storage systems and computing infrastructure enable organisations to process, store and disseminate large amounts of data: the hi-tech fuel of the modern economy.

The Himalayan kingdom will also explore with India development of hydrogen, which has been billed as the future of clean energy for transport.

Two of Asia’s richest tycoons, Indian industrialists Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, have been racing to produce the world’s cheapest green hydrogen.
Green hydrogen, which is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy, could replace fossil fuels for a variety of uses including the manufacture of commodities like steel and fertiliser as well as transport fuel.

“The hydrogen economy will take some time, but we want to be in that space. We are also looking at solar power development,” Dahal said, adding that the kingdom was looking to set up a 1,000-megawatt solar power project.

Geothermal energy – which draws upon water from underground reservoirs to the earth’s surface to produce steam for electricity generation – was another area that the country planned to explore, he added.
Sri Lanka passes bill allowing government to remove online posts and legally pursue internet users (AP)
AP [1/24/2024 9:59 PM, Bharatha Mallawarachi, 22K, Negative]
Sri Lanka’s parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved an internet regulation bill that was highly criticized as a move to stifle speech in an election year while the Indian Ocean island nation copes with an economic crisis that required an international bailout.

The Online Safety bill would allow the government to set up a commission with a wide range of powers, which includes ordering people and internet service providers to remove online posts deemed “prohibited statements.” It can also legally pursue people who publish such posts.

The government led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe submitted the bill for debate on Tuesday, after which it was passed in the 225-member house, where the ruling coalition enjoys majority. Only 62 lawmakers voted against the bill.

Opposition lawmakers criticized the bill for creating “a very oppressive environment.” Media, internet and civil rights groups had asked the government to withdraw the bill, saying it would undermine freedoms.

The New York-based Human Rights Watch said the bill would create a repressive law with broad and vague “speech-related offenses punishable by lengthy prison terms.”

The Asia Internet Coalition, which has Apple, Amazon, Google and Yahoo as members, said the bill “would undermine potential growth and foreign direct investment into Sri Lanka’s digital economy.”

The secretary of the Sri Lanka Professional Web Journalists Association, Kalum Shivantha, said the bill would severely impact how they do their job. “Online journalists might resort to self-censorship and even our news websites might get shut down,” he said.

However, Public Security Minister Tiran Alles, who introduced the bill in Parliament, said it would address problems related to online fraud, abuse and false statements that threaten national security and stability. He said more than 8,000 complaints were filed last year related to online crimes, including sexual abuse, financial scams, cyber harassment, and data theft.

Alles added that the bill was not drafted to harass media or political opponents.

Sri Lanka is still reeling from its worst economic crisis, which hit the island nation two years ago. The country declared bankruptcy in 2022 with more than $83 billion in debt, more than half of it to foreign creditors.

The crisis caused severe shortages of food, fuel and other necessities. Strident public protests led to the ouster of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

The IMF agreed last year to a $2.9 billion bailout package for the hard-hit country.

After Rajapaksa fled, then-Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was appointed as president by parliament. The shortages of necessities have largely decreased over the past year, but public dissatisfaction has spiked after the government imposing new high taxes on professionals and businesses and raised energy bills.

Rights groups say Wickremesinghe has moved to stifle dissent, by cracking down on anti-government protests and arresting protestors and activists.

Sri Lanka’s presidential election is set to be held later this year.
Sri Lanka parliament passes bill to regulate online content (Reuters)
Reuters [1/24/2024 6:59 AM, Uditha Jayasinghe, 5239K, Negative]
Sri Lanka’s lawmakers passed a bill to regulate online content on Wednesday, the speaker of the parliament announced, a law which opposition politicians and activists say will muzzle free speech.

The Online Safety Bill proposes jail terms for posting content that a five-member commission considers illegal and makes social media platforms such as Google, Facebook and X liable for messages on their platforms.
Central Asia
Kyrgyz Security Committee Refuses Request From Media Outlet To Reopen Offices After Search (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/24/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 235K, Neutral]
The Kyrgyz State Committee for National Security (UKMK) has refused a request by the media website 24.kg to open its offices, which have been sealed shut since the independent news outlet’s premises were searched by law enforcement officers in the capital, Bishkek, last week. The UKMK gave no details of its decision, saying only that an investigation into 24.kg continues. Asel Otorbaeva, the director 24.kg, said she made the request because she does not know why access to the offices has been restricted. Otorbaeva, and two editors -- Makhinur Niyazova and Anton Lymar, were questioned over an unspecified 24.kg report about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Watchdog group pushes for fresh impact study on Tajikistan megaproject (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/24/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
A watchdog coalition is alleging that international lenders are indifferent to Tajik government efforts aimed at stifling public debate over the environmental impact of the massive Rogun Dam project.

In an open letter sent to top World Bank (WB) representatives, the watchdog coalition calls on the WB-led Rogun Coordination Group of international finance organizations to “show greater openness” in enforcing policies aimed at ensuring adequate stakeholder participation in infrastructure project development. Tajik officials, the letter states, have engaged in “unequivocal attempts to limit region-wide stakeholder engagement” concerning Rogun’s environmental and social impact, not just on Tajikistan, but all of Central Asia.

International lenders, including the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have already supplied a combined $15 million in funding for Rogun-related feasibility studies and other planning activities. The WB, AIIB and the European Investment bank have also pledged at least $200 million each toward the eventual construction of the dam, which has an estimated $6-billion price tag. Plans for the dam date back to the Soviet era; construction has proceeded spasmodically since the 1990s due to continuing financing uncertainty. If built to its envisioned specifications, Rogun would be the tallest dam in the world.

The watchdog coalition, which includes the regional non-governmental organization Rivers without Boundaries and the CEE Bankwatch Network, contends that an environmental and social impact assessment, based on World Bank-sponsored consultations conducted a decade or longer ago, are outdated. New assessments are needed to factor in rapid changes in Central Asia fueled by global warming, especially the rapid depletion of water supplies and the “rapid degradation of ecosystems” in the Amu Darya River basin.

“The reality is that since 2014, we have learned much more about the dynamics of climate change and efficient renewable energy sources,” states the coalition letter, dated January 18. “The potentially vast scale of trans-boundary impacts resulting from the development of the Rogun HPP project deserves the same scale of public discussions that was held in 2014.”

Stakeholder input concerning Rogun’s potential impact should not be limited to Tajikistan, but also include the participation of experts from other Central Asian states, according to the letter.
China seals closer Uzbek ties, pushes railway route bypassing Russia (Reuters)
Reuters [1/24/2024 8:46 AM, Liz Lee and Ryan Woo, 5239K, Positive]
China on Wednesday upgraded its diplomatic ties with Uzbekistan and offered closer cooperation across a range of projects, including a Central Asia railway that would open up a new trade route as shippers shun an existing overland link via Russia.

The two countries have elevated their ties to an "all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership" from a "comprehensive strategic partnership" previously, China’s official news agency Xinhua reported, as Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Beijing.

In an "all-weather" partnership, both sides maintain friendly relations at all times regardless of the international and domestic political landscape. China has a similar "all-weather" partnership with Belarus, another nation which Beijing views as strategic and has increasingly wrought closer ties.

China said it was ready to expand cooperation with Uzbekistan across the new energy vehicle industry chain, as well as in major projects such as photovoltaics, wind power and hydropower.

Notably, China called for work on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway to start "as soon as possible", after officially sealing closer ties with Uzbekistan.

The project has been discussed since the 1990s but gained new importance after the invasion of Ukraine prompted sanctions on Russia which resulted in shippers between China and Europe avoiding sending goods overland via Russia.

In the long term, the Central Asia route could potentially help cut freight transport times between China and Europe.

But financing and technical details for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project remain unclear, as is its actual route across the three countries.

It is also unclear how goods would reach Europe from the western terminus of the proposed railway; potentially they could be transported via the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus or overland via the Middle East.
China, Uzbekistan Announce Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/24/2024 6:52 AM, Staff, 223K, Positive]
China and Uzbekistan announced on January 24 that they’ve upgraded their ties to an "all-weather" comprehensive strategic partnership, a move that raises the level of diplomatic ties between the two countries. The agreement was announced during a meeting between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Beijing as part of a multiday state visit where the Uzbek leader is courting investment and looking to deepen ties with China. While this terminology may not always ensure preferential treatment, Beijing uses these defined levels of partnerships in its foreign policy to indicate its strategic priorities and perception of countries.
Uzbekistan, China pledge to boost trade to $20Bln in “near future” (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/24/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Uzbekistan and China have set their sights on increasing their trade turnover to $20 billion “in the near future,” following high-level negotiations in Beijing on January 24 between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Bilateral trade in 2023 hit the $14 billion mark.

A statement on the Uzbek president’s website attributed this trajectory to the “powerful breakthrough made in bilateral relations” in recent years.

Mirziyoyev was fulsome in his gratitude to his host, expressing special thanks to Xi for his “personal attention and support on cooperation issues, particularly in the fight against poverty.” He and Xi then paid tribute to the planned launch in Tashkent of a Luban workshop, a Chinese-funded vocational school. An agreement on the school was signed in November.

A sustained push has been taking place to open up these vocational center across the region over the last year. Kazakhstan in December announced the opening of its own Luban workshop on the campus of Serikbayev East Kazakhstan Technical University.

According to Mirziyoyev’s office, Chinese investment in Uzbekistan’s economy has seen a fivefold increase “in recent years.”

Chinese companies are spying strong potential in the renewables sector.

Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov announced in May at an Uzbek-Chinese business forum in Xi’an, China, that agreements had been reached on construction of renewable energy facilities with a total capacity of 6 gigawatts.

“These are projects involving foreign direct investment of about $5-6 billion dollars,” Mirzamakhmudov said at the time.

Two photovoltaic stations, each with an installed capacity of 500 megawatts, have since the middle of last year been under development by China Gezhouba Group, the foreign investment division of China Energy Engineering Corporation, in the Bukhara and Kashkadarya region, respectively. Segments of both those projects reportedly came online in late 2023.

In a further signal that Beijing intends to sustain the tempo of investment, Mirziyoyev met this week with Wu Fulin, the head of the Export-Import Bank of China, or Eximbank, to talk, among other things, about the lender’s plans to open a branch in Uzbekistan.

“The bank plans to open a regional office in Tashkent and prepare new promising projects for the development of transport and social infrastructure, in industry and in the private sector,” Mirziyoyev’s office said in a statement on the meeting.

In other China-related business this week, Samarkand regional government has agreed to buy 100 electric buses made by Chinese automaker Yutong. Buying the vehicles and building the necessary infrastructure to support them will entail an expenditure of $62 million over a three-year period. Out of that total, $49 million is coming in the form of a long-term loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Indo-Pacific
India has not told its defence personnel to pull out from Maldives - navy chief (Reuters)
Reuters [1/25/2024 2:25 AM, Shivam Patel, 5.2M, Neutral]
India’s government has not told its defence personnel to pull out from Maldives following a request from Male, Indian Navy Chief Admiral R. Hari Kumar told broadcaster CNN-News 18 on Thursday.

India’s ties with Maldives have come under strain after Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu’s election win last year pledging to end his country’s "India First" policy and later calling for withdrawal of Indian troops by March 15.

Muizzu’s decisions are seen as a pivot away from India to build stronger ties with China in a region where New Delhi and Beijing compete for influence.

"We await instructions, whatever is the decision," Kumar said when asked about the return of defence personnel from Maldives, adding that New Delhi has "not really" issued any communication to the navy so far.

A contingent of around 80 Indian soldiers are stationed on the Indian Ocean archipelago nation to provide support for military equipment given to Male by New Delhi and assist in humanitarian activities.
What the China-Maldives-India Triangle Tells Us About 21st Century Balancing (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/24/2024 9:02 AM, Ovigwe Eguegu, 201K, Neutral]
President Mohamed Muizzu of Maldives recently concluded a state visit to China during which he met President Xi Jinping, signed several deals, and saw the China-Maldives relationship upgraded to the level of “comprehensive strategic cooperation.”

While the outcomes that Muizzu flew across the Indian Ocean with following his state visit to China are fairly standard, what is unusual are two other factors.

First, the island country’s strategic location means that the United States, China, and India care deeply about its perspective and allies. The Maldives is adjacent to one of the densest trading routes in the world; over 80 percent of energy imports to the Indian subcontinent pass thorough the shipping lane to the north of the Maldives.

Second, typically, India is the country of choice for the first foreign visit of Maldivian presidents. Muizzu thus broke tradition by choosing China for his first state visit abroad and before that, he paid visits to Turkey and the UAE. December 2023 also saw the Maldives skip the critical Colombo Security Conclave – a regional security forum where India, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Bangladesh, and Seychelles convene to cooperate on security in the Indian Ocean region.

So, is Muizzu undertaking, as some have suggested, a full “pivot” to China, and if so, why? More broadly, is the Maldives a canary in the coal mine of a new era of “periodic alignment” i.e. oscillating between rival power poles, rather than non-alignment or multi-alignment? Indeed, we’ve seen another recent example in the opposite direction: Muizzu’s visit to China came soon after the election of Argentina’s new President Javier Milei, who ran a heavy anti-China campaign before his win.

Maldives Relations With India and China

Malé’s ties with New Delhi run deep. Historically, the Maldives and India have maintained deep economic and security ties and the Maldives has benefitted from India’s relief aid on multiple occasions, including the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the 2014 water crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

New Delhi in turn has prioritized cooperation with the Maldives in military and maritime security. For instance, in 2019, Muizzu’s predecessor, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, signed a hydrographic survey agreement with New Delhi, which allowed India to survey Maldivian waters.

However, Muizzu ran an “India Out” campaign during the presidential elections at the end of 2023. He focused on deprioritizing relations with India, citing perceived threats to Maldivian sovereignty. Muizzu has now given New Delhi March 15 as deadline for the removal of all Indian troops and personnel from the country. Muizzu also decided against renewing the hydrographic survey agreement, which is set to expire in 2024.

These actions of course come with economic costs. On the economic front, bilateral trade between India and the Maldives currently stands at roughly $501 million, making India Malé’s third biggest trading partner.

India is also the largest contributor to the Maldives’ tourism sector. India was the leading source of foreign tourists to the Maldives in 2023 and has been for some years. Indians accounted for 22 percent of total arrivals last year. Tourism is the main economic activity in the Maldives, contributing around 30 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of foreign currency earnings. Calls in India for a “boycott” of the Maldives as a vacation destination could have an outsized impact on the Maldives’ economy.

Meanwhile, China-Maldives bilateral trade in the first 11 months of 2023 reached nearly $700 million, up 75 percent year on year. During Muizzu’s state visit to China, both countries signed 20 agreements to promote and boost cooperation in various sectors such as tourism, the blue economy, infrastructure, media analysis, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

In a joint statement during the visit, the Maldives also stated firm commitment to the One China principle while backing China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), and the BRI. The joint statement also stated that both countries agree to implement the GSI via cooperation in law enforcement with the aim of tackling traditional and non-traditional security challenges. This could open the way for stepping up military security cooperation.

In August 2017 three Chinese frigates visited the Maldives, which raised eyebrows in New Delhi. Now Muizzu’s government has given clearance to a Chinese research vessel, the Xiang Yang Hong 3, to dock in a Maldivian port. Such port visits have caused tensions between India and Sri Lanka in the recent past, as New Delhi considers the Chinese vessels to be military intelligence assets.

No Permanent Enemies or Friends, Only Permanent Interests

It would be easy to interpret this oscillation as Malé cleverly “playing” big competing powers against each other. However, what is not understood nearly enough is that in many countries, including the Maldives, the democratic political system does not allow for long-term political calculations. Policy becomes a victim of short-termism.

Many elected leaders across the world especially in Africa, Asia, and the Latin America and Caribbean region, are grappling with rapidly expanding populations amid global economic uncertainty, and what seem like intractable development challenges exacerbated by frequent natural disasters due to climate change. Elected leaders in these countries face huge pressure to deliver tangible results before the next election cycle. In this context, opposition parties can seek electoral advantages without having to promise (much less actually deliver) tangible results by using ideology and dogma to capture publics – and swinging between competing powers is a perfect means to do so.

For the Maldives, Muizzu’s campaign and post-election moves sought to alter the Solih’s “India first” policy. Similar shifts have been seen in, for instance, Malaysia, Zambia, Kenya, and Sierra Leone in the opposite, anti-China direction at various points – all economies with a strong history and commitment to domestic elections.

However, and as we have seen often in the above-mentioned countries, it is not unthinkable that the Maldives will swing back to India in the future if the conditions necessitate its leaders to do so, and especially if agreements with China do not deliver much in economic terms for Maldivian citizens. After all, in politics and economics “there are no permanent enemies or permanent friends, only permanent interests.”

While Muizzu has no doubt so far prioritized relations with China, it would be premature to think it’s game over for India. Recall that Solih’s “India first” approach was responding to perceived “pro-China” foreign policy adjustments from the previous administration of President Abdulla Yameen.

The lesson for large economies such as China, India, the United States, and the European Union is to not be too confident in these ostensible “pivots,” while bracing for change with existing priority countries, especially where there are regular elections. In countries like the Maldives, it is challenging to strike the right balance between stable relations with a powerful neighbor – such as India – and following an autonomous path.

That said, should the Maldives lean back to India, New Delhi will likely welcome Malé back. Similarly, if Argentina decides to reembrace China, BRICS+, and all its promises, it will most likely be welcomed back with open arms. Why? Argentina and the Maldives can boast of being especially strategically relevant. While this privilege used to be the reserve of just a few countries, in the era of intense perceived great power competition, even the smallest, least visibly strategic countries may matter more than ever – and may well be able to swing between poles.

For citizens of the countries involved, such as the Maldives, however, the issue remains whether this kind of oscillating, periodic adjustment strategy – incentivized further by these perceptions of great power competition – actually makes sense for enabling growth and development. Does India really demand that the Maldives should minimize engage with China, and vice versa? Is it right that every dollar, rupee, or yuan borrowed or used from the largest economies of the world should be tied to improving their own strategic positioning in the recipient country or region, even temporarily?

From Sierra Leone to Malaysia, the typical effect of periodic adjustment has been to delay large yet much-needed infrastructure projects, or to deter foreign direct investment or other flows such as tourists from the targeted country. Periodic adjustment can be an own-goal.

A sturdier strategy, for the Maldives’ leaders and others, would be to have a policy of simply seeking to get the best out of all partners, learning lessons from neighbors and others in similar geographical or economic situations on how they have extracted the most for their own economies from large partners such as China, India, the United States, or Europe. Framed in this way, opposition leaders could run campaigns on the basis that their incumbents have not been savvy enough with their partnerships, rather than “one-in, one-out” campaigns.

Today, the Maldives, as a country that is often viewed through a reductive lens, is making independent foreign policy advances that not only remind regional powers of their influence but further show the growth of the multipolar era of geopolitics. Many other countries may take the same path in the coming years. But looking globally, these supposed pivots are unlikely to last – nor should they.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[1/24/2024 9:22 AM, 250.6K followers, 25 retweets, 53 likes]
Taliban’s latest guidelines in the western Herat province impose new and strict measures on hairdressing businesses:
1. Barbers are asked to adhere to Islamic principles when shaving and trimming beards.
2. Avoiding haircuts which are against Islamic principles, presumably referring to some hair cuts in North Korea :)
3. No removal of eyebrow hair.
4. Mandatory prayer times with no work during those hours.
5. Removal of all photos and paintings at workplaces.
6. Prohibition of all music in business place.
This and such decrees rise concern about individual liberties and impact on Afghan society. In the 21st century, witnessing the Taliban impose these restrictions is not only upsetting but unimaginable given the current state of the country.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[1/25/2024 1:03 AM, 62.1K followers, 1 retweet, 8 likes]
As @UN moves toward appointing a special envoy on Afghanistan, the demands of Afghan WHRDs are clear—the envoy must:
1) have credibility and expertise on women’s rights;
2) have a full time gender advisor;
3) have a mandate to be in ongoing consultation with diverse Afghan women

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[1/24/2024 7:39 AM, 62.1K followers, 39 retweets, 97 likes]
Please tell me the new @UNAMAnews deputy @IndrikaRatwatte didn’t kick off his new job by having a men-only meeting with the Taliban. https://mfa.gov.af/en/16195

Afghanistan Women’s And Children S.W.O
@AWCSWO
[1/24/2024 2:00 PM, 4.8K followers, 17 retweets, 42 likes]
Urgent Call for Full Participation of Women in the United Nations Meeting on Afghanistan ; Heather Barr, the Human Rights Watch’s Human Rights and Women’s Rights Officer, has issued a compelling statement, stressing the critical need for women’s full participation in the upcoming United Nations meeting on Afghanistan. Expressing satisfaction with the UN Secretary-General’s understanding of the fears faced by Afghanistan women, Heather Barr has urged Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General’s spokesperson, to extend invitations to Afghanistan women for the delegates’ meeting on Afghanistan. Highlighting the alarming crisis confronting women and girls in Afghanistan, Heather Barr has underscored the urgent necessity to bolster efforts in safeguarding women’s rights in the country. Heather Barr, has further stated that the recent arrests carried out by the Taliban in Afghanistan specifically target a particular ethnic group due to their enforcement of hijab regulations. This alarming development highlights the discriminatory practices and human rights violations faced by women belonging to this ethnic group. Barr emphasizes the urgent need for international attention and action to address these targeted arrests and protect the rights of Afghanistan women.

Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[1/24/2024 8:54 PM, 77.3K followers, 10 retweets, 63 likes]
On International Day of Education, we must confront the unprecedented crisis of Afghanistan: women and girls barred from classrooms, and boys steered towards extremism. The Taliban is denying a fundamental human right and darkening the future of an entire generation of Afghans.
Pakistan
Government of Pakistan
@GovtofPakistan
[1/24/2024 11:45 AM, 3.1M followers, 16 retweets, 39 likes]
Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar Attends Pakistan National Youth Convention 2024 “We as a Nation, have fought the menace of terrorism most valiantly, offering unparalleled sacrifices. Youth can play a constructive role in dealing with this emerging national security challenge provided they remain focused, and check details through authentic information from the state institutions rather than falling prey to propaganda.” ~ Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[1/24/2024 7:10 AM, 5.1M followers, 7.6K retweets, 8.8K likes]
The people of Sargodha have chosen to reject exploitation, division, and hatred. They choose a future with free healthcare and education. They choose freedom from hunger and poverty. They choose a government that works in their interests, not the interests of the status quo or the elites. Join us and vote ‘Teer’ on the 8th of February, and together we will build a better tomorrow.

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[1/25/2024 12:55 AM, 76K followers, 144 retweets, 246 likes]
PAKISTAN: Baloch protestors ended their month-long sit-in in Islamabad against enforced disappearances and unlawful killings after the Pakistani authorities subjected them to repeated intimidation, arbitrary arrests and detentions. First Information Reports (FIRs) – which initiate criminal proceedings – were filed against protestors across the country. Amnesty International verified at least 13 such FIRs. On 20 December 2023, when the march reached Islamabad, the police used tear gas, water cannons and batons against protestors entering the city and those at the National Press Club. Subsequently, two FIRs were registered against the protestors in Islamabad by police and as a result, more than 300 protestors were indiscriminately arrested including women, children, students, older persons, and a woman journalist. Read more: https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/01/pakistan-amnesty-international-condemns-harassment-faced-by-baloch-protestors-in-islamabad/

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[1/24/2024 8:20 AM, 76K followers, 1.5K retweets, 3K likes]
PAKISTAN: Amnesty International condemns harassment faced by Baloch protestors in Islamabad “The Pakistani authorities should be ashamed of the harassment meted out to the Baloch Long March protestors. This is not the end the Baloch women would have hoped for when undertaking the perilous journey with their children to demand justice for their families. The authorities have been heartlessly indifferent to the plight and demands of the peaceful protestors camped out in the severe cold for the past month,” said Carolyn Horn, Programme Director, Law and Policy at @amnesty. Read more: https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/01/pakistan-amnesty-international-condemns-harassment-faced-by-baloch-protestors-in-islamabad/

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[1/24/2024 8:20 AM, 76K followers, 305 retweets, 535 likes]
The peaceful Baloch protesters, consisting largely of families of victims of enforced disappearances including people as old as 80 and children as young as two years old, had been sleeping in near-freezing temperatures at the sit-in at the National Press Club, Islamabad since 22 December 2023 before moving protest today. Read more: https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/01/pakistan-amnesty-international-condemns-harassment-faced-by-baloch-protestors-in-islamabad/
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/25/2024 1:52 AM, 94.8M followers, 3.3K retweets, 9.2K likes]
First time voters support BJP’s development agenda! Speaking at the Nav Matdata Sammelan.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/24/2024 10:59 AM, 94.8M followers, 2.5K retweets, 11K likes]
Today’s Cabinet decisions relating to the coal sector will strengthen our resolve towards Aatmanirbharta.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1999220
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1999222

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[1/24/2024 8:54 AM, 23.9M followers, 296 retweets, 2.5K likes]
Mr Dennis Francis, President of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly called on President Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhavan. President Murmu appreciated the important initiatives being undertaken under his Presidency, including on climate change and women’s empowerment.

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[1/24/2024 4:24 AM, 23.9M followers, 318 retweets, 2.3K likes]
President Droupadi Murmu inaugurated Kaushal Bhawan – a new building of the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship in New Delhi. The President also visited exhibition set up on the occasion and interacted with beneficiaries of various government’s initiatives.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/24/2024 8:50 AM, 3M followers, 278 retweets, 1.7K likes]
Important Cabinet decisions taken today:
1.Approval for the proposal of signing of a protocol for establishment of Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) between India and Dominican Republic. JETCO will strengthen economic ties and provide a platform for discussions, exchange of information, knowledge and ideas which would in turn facilitate trade and industry.
2.Approval of signing of a MoU between India and Oman on cooperation in the field of Information Technology. Will improve collaboration leading to employment opportunities in the field of IT.
3.Approval for promotion of Coal/Lignite Gasification Projects towards incentive for coal gasification projects. Total outlay of Rs.8,500 crore will be provided as financial assistance.
4.Approval of proposal for equity investment by (i) CIL for setting up of Coal-to-Synthetic Natural Gas Project; and (ii) for setting up of Coal-to-Ammonium Nitrate Project at MCL command area through a joint venture of CIL & BHEL.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/24/2024 7:07 AM, 3M followers, 173 retweets, 1.2K likes]
A great interaction with the future of Bharat today at Miranda House, New Delhi. Spoke about what the road ahead for Bharat looks like. The youth of today will shoulder that responsibility in our Amrit Kaal.
The Modi government in the last decade has
- Built a firm foundation of a democracy that delivers;
- Brought talent, technology and tradition together;
- Made an impact on world through its policies and actions.
Bharat is a mindset, a self-awareness and a confidence. The world can see that in the last decade.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[1/24/2024 7:02 AM, 3M followers, 272 retweets, 2.5K likes]
So glad to welcome @un_pga Dennis Francis this afternoon in New Delhi. His positive sentiments for our G20 Presidency and Voice of Global South Summits were notable. They have strengthened multilateralism. Appreciated his position on need for urgency of reforms in international institutions especially the UN Security Council. Agreed on the importance of accelerating Sustainable Development Goals and climate action. India will strongly support the Summit of the Future Process under his leadership to achieve equitable and ambitious outcomes.

Ashok Swain
@ashoswai
[1/24/2024 4:04 AM, 610.4K followers, 942 retweets, 2.3K likes]
Indians have queued up in hundreds to go to Israel to work as laborers - These guys vote Modi to build temples and statues and they go to a warring Israel to find a job!
NSB
Sadia Faizunnesa
@SadiaFaizunnesa
[1/24/2024 7:47 AM, 4.4K followers, 4 retweets, 58 likes]
Dr. Saima Wazed from Bangladesh appointed WHO Regional Director for South-East Asia. Heartiest congratulations @drSaimaWazed for making Bangladesh so proud! Her pioneering role and strong contribution for addressing autism and mental health at national, regional and global levels is a remarkable! Wish @drSaimaWazed every success in her important new assignment. https://who.int/southeastasia/news/detail/23-01-2024-ms-saima-wazed-appointed-who-regional-director-for-south-east-asia

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[1/24/2024 11:03 AM, 5K followers, 3 retweets, 22 likes]
The UN is urging the government of #Bangladesh to practice human rights. Urging autocrats to be humane has never worked in the history of humankind., Bangladesh: Government must prioritise human rights in its fourth term

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives
@MoFAmv
[1/24/2024 7:49 AM, 53.3K followers, 25 retweets, 36 likes]
FOSIM successfully concludes the last day of Pre-Posting Briefing for diplomats, where participants were briefed on Bilateral Relations, Economic Cooperation, and Commercial Diplomacy. We wish the diplomats all the best in their postings.

Moosa Zameer
@MoosaZameer
[1/24/2024 11:45 AM, 12.6K followers, 49 retweets, 74 likes]
Honoured to meet His Excellency Liu Guozhong, Vice Premier of the State Council of China, during his short transit in #Maldives this evening. We briefly discussed important bilateral issues and potential areas of cooperation, in strengthening Maldives-China relations.

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[1/24/2024 12:49 PM, 76K followers, 6 retweets, 12 likes]
The Online Safety Act is the newest weapon in the government’s arsenal of tools that could be used to undermine freedom of expression and suppress dissent. Authorities must immediately withdraw it and ensure respect for the human rights of everyone in the country - @ThyagiR Read more: https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/01/sri-lanka-online-safety-act-major-blow-to-freedom-of-expression/ #OnlineSafetyBill

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[1/24/2024 12:45 PM, 76K followers, 15 retweets, 15 likes]
Sri Lanka: Online Safety Act major blow to freedom of expression. “The passing of the Online Safety Act is a major blow to human rights in Sri Lanka. The Act is the newest weapon in the government’s arsenal of tools that could be used to undermine freedom of expression and suppress dissent. Authorities must immediately withdraw it and ensure respect for the human rights of everyone in the country. Many parts of the Act do not meet international human rights standards including overbroad provisions that would restrict the enjoyment of the rights to freedom of expression and privacy online, and vaguely worded, subjective offences such as ‘prohibited statements’ as determined and declared by a powerful ‘Online Safety Commission’. The rights to freedom of expression and privacy are guaranteed by the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) to which Sri Lanka is a State party. As people grapple with and voice their concerns amid hardships during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and the impact of government’s austerity measures, this legislation will be ripe for misuse by authorities and will be used to further restrict civic space, and crackdown on critics and opposition. In a year of elections, with a long history of cracking down on protests, the Sri Lankan authorities must demonstrate the political will to uphold their international human rights obligations and commitments by guaranteeing and ensuring respect for human rights before, during and after elections.” https://amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/01/sri-lanka-online-safety-act-major-blow-to-freedom-of-expression/
Central Asia
Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
[1/24/2024 12:12 PM, 6.7M followers, 537 retweets, 1.8K likes]
My thoughts are with the people of Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake. Wishing strength to those affected and expressing heartfelt condolences for the loss and challenges faced. Pakistan stands in solidarity with Kyrgyzstan during this challenging time.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[1/24/2024 3:15 PM, 152.8K followers, 4 retweets, 18 likes]
Following the #negotiations at the highest level, a ceremony of signing bilateral documents was held. President of the Republic of #Uzbekistan Shavkat #Mirziyoyev and President of the People’s Republic of #China Xi Jinping signed a Joint Statement.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[1/24/2024 2:54 PM, 152.8K followers, 4 retweets, 20 likes]
The President of the Republic of #Uzbekistan Shavkat #Mirziyoyev and the President of the People’s Republic of #China Xi Jinping held talks in #Beijing. The meeting was attended by members of official delegations.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[1/24/2024 2:21 PM, 152.8K followers, 6 retweets, 24 likes]
An official welcoming ceremony for President of the Republic of #Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who is on a state visit to #China, has been held at the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in #Beijing.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[1/24/2024 1:53 PM, 152.8K followers, 4 retweets, 8 likes]
Within the framework of the business agenda of the state visit to China, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat #Mirziyoyev met with Chairman of @CNPC Dai Houliang, Chairman of CITIС Group Xi Guohua and Chairman of China Export-Import Bank Wu Fulin. They discussed the preparation and implementation of new promising projects in #Uzbekistan.

Furqat Sidiqov
@FurqatSidiq
[1/24/2024 1:47 PM, 1.2K followers, 5 retweets, 12 likes]
As we gear up for the ‘Exhibition of Rishtan Ceramic’, I had the unique privilege of learning pottery from the pros. Under the guidance of a #Uzbek master, I delved into the art that flourished for a thousand years. Don’t miss a rare opportunity & visit @UZEmbassyDC coming days.

{End of Report}
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