SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS

epubdos : Afghanistan

Prepared for the U.S. Department of State

Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs

By TechMIS
www.TechMIS.com

Mobile User Copy

TO:	SCA & Staff
DATE:	Thursday, January 11, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan

Taliban Minister Boasts Afghan Anti-Polio Gains While Addressing Global Health Huddle (VOA)

VOA [1/10/2024 9:01 AM, Ayaz Gul, 761K, Neutral]
A senior representative of Afghanistan’s Taliban government told a Pakistan-hosted international health conference Wednesday that his country had recorded an increase in mosquito-borne malaria and dengue fever cases, but infections caused by highly contagious poliovirus declined significantly.

Only 12 children around the world were paralyzed by wild poliovirus in 2023, all of them in Afghanistan and Pakistan — with six reported in each. The two countries, sharing a nearly 2,600-kilometer border, have not detected a polio infection this year.

"Polio is still a great challenge for both Afghanistan and Pakistan," Qalandar Ebad, the Taliban health minister, said in his English-language speech at the first global health security summit in Islamabad.

Delegates from 70 countries worldwide, including those from the United States and the United Nations, are attending the summit in the Pakistani capital.

"We are trying our best to eradicate the polio virus from the country and fortunately we have good accomplishments in this area," Ebad said.

The World Health Organization says the polio vaccination campaign in Afghanistan has improved in quality and outreach since the Taliban regained control of the war-ravaged country in August 2021, leading to the cessation of years of nationwide hostilities.

The Taliban minister noted that there was a "slight increase in HIV/AIDS cases" in the impoverished country, but he did not elaborate.

Ebad blamed climate change for some health emergencies facing his South Asian nation of more than 40 million people. He urged the need to assist Afghanistan and other developing countries in improving their national healthcare systems to enable them to utilize locally available expertise to combat infectious diseases.

"We are witnessing that the funding in Afghanistan is decreasing, but still, in our country, instead of national capacity [building], many international [workers] with higher salaries are recruited, though the national [workers] can perform the same tasks as internationals do," the Taliban minister asserted.

No foreign country has recognized the Taliban, citing their bans on Afghan women’s access to education and work.

Afghanistan lost billions of dollars in foreign aid after the Taliban takeover as Western countries and international donors suspended their financial support for the country, where the health sector was primarily dependent on the funding.

In his address to Wednesday’s opening session of the summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar urged collective efforts to fight global infectious diseases like COVID-19 and climate change-induced emergencies.

Kakar said that "no state in the world, no matter how powerful it is, can meet such challenges" alone.

While addressing the gathering, Donald Blome, the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, backed calls for a collaborative international approach to global health security.

"Coordination with partners is the most effective way to address regional and global health threats," Blome said. He added that halting infectious disease outbreaks at their point of origin is one of the best and most economical ways to save lives. "Health is the cornerstone to the future of any thriving nation, and the United States will be a strong partner to build this future."

Afghan women detained over improper hijab: Taliban official (Agence France-Presse)

Agence France-Presse [1/10/2024 9:48 AM, Staff, 11975K, Negative]
A Taliban official has said several girls and women were detained recently in Kabul for not covering themselves properly, after reports circulated of a crackdown in the Afghan capital.

In a video posted on social media Wednesday, security official Ehsanullah Saqib told a gathering of religious scholars in Kabul’s western Dasht-e-Barchi neighbourhood that in the past week "we have detained a number of women and girls who were without hijab, with the help of women police".

Since returning to power in August 2021, Taliban authorities have imposed a strict interpretation of Islam, with women bearing the brunt of laws the United Nations has labelled "gender apartheid".

Women have been squeezed from public life, barred from travelling without a male relative and ordered to cover everything but their hands and eyes when outside the home, though many women still go out in Kabul without covering their mouths.

Ehsanullah, addressing the gathering on Tuesday according to the video posted on X by Khaama Press and Amu TV, said the women and girls were detained because they were "totally without hijab", wearing trousers or leggings and dresses, instead of a garment that loosely covers the whole body.

"They were arrested to inform their families that their sister, daughter or wife roams without hijab and they should prevent this," he said.

Abdul Ghafar Sabawoon, spokesman for the Ministry for the Prevention of Vice and Promotion of Virtue, told AFP the women had "only been advised by female police to have greater respect and dignity (in observing hijab)".

"No woman has been disrespected or humiliated, nor do we have anyone in the custody in connection to this."

In a recent post on X, the ministry denied some images circulating were of police rounding up women over not wearing hijab, saying they were pictures of authorities removing beggars from the streets.

A human rights activist in Afghanistan who asked not to be identified said the detentions were meant to "put pressure on families to force women and girls to wear hijab and instil fear in women and girls through their families".

"This is the first time the Taliban has arrested women and girls from the streets openly" over hijab, she told AFP.

"But the arrest of a group of women under the pretext of ‘bad hijab’ was neither surprising, nor unexpected, because we know that the Taliban try to suppress women in every possible way and use fear and terror to oppress them."

UN special rapporteur Richard Bennett responded to initial reports of the detentions in a post on X on Friday, saying the recent "arrests of women in Kabul... regrettably signifies further restrictions on women’s freedom of expression and undermines other rights".

Taliban arresting women protesting education ban under pretext of ‘bad hijab’ law, say Afghan activists (The Independent)

The Independent [1/10/2024 6:41 AM, Arpan Rai, 3055K, Negative]
Activists in Kabul say the Taliban is rounding up and detaining women and girls under the pretext a draconian law on improperly worn headscarves.

In the past week, women’s rights activist Farida Mohib said she had witnessed arrests of women on “an excessive scale” in the Afghan capital, in a crackdown which she said was designed to quash any last vestiges of protest in the country over a ban on women’s and girls’ education.

“I was in Makroyan neighbourhood on Sunday when the Taliban came in their [Ford] Ranger car and forced all the girls on the road into the back of the car and took them away,” said Ms Mohib.

Public dissent has become increasingly rare in Afghanistan under the Taliban’s rule and any such gatherings are met with brute force. “Lately in Kabul, there has been no street protest, the Taliban will shoot us directly or take us as prisoners with them,” said Ms Mohib, a member of the Women’s National Unity and Solidarity Movement in Afghanistan.

Ms Mohib says the regime’s fighters are picking women up off the streets, putting them inside vehicles, and whisking them away to unknown destinations in a crackdown that began on 1 January.

Some women have reportedly died by suicide, activists say.

The Taliban’s de facto authorities have not confirmed any deaths or a number of arrests made, but admitted that an operation to detain women was going on.

The Taliban’s chief spokesperson confirmed that the regime has been arresting women over improperly worn hijab – what is locally referred to as the “bad hijab” law – but did not specify how many are behind bars.

Women in Kabul have been asked to wear masks so that their faces are not seen. Chadors – a dress covering women from head to toe – of any colour other than black are also strictly barred.

The Taliban’s officials are now parading the streets stating that black chadors have to be worn with a mask and burqas of the same colour.

“These arrests were to punish some groups who were trying to promote violation of hijab in some cities, and it was for a limited time,” Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid said. The statement was later removed from X.

Officials from the Taliban’s Vice and Virtue Ministry said the arrested women were the “limited few who spread bad hijab in the Islamic society”.

“They violated Islamic values and rituals, and encouraged society and other respected sisters to go for bad hijab,” the ministry’s spokesperson Abdul Ghafar Farooq says.

Activists witnessing the arrests say the number of women behind bars could be in the hundreds.

“The number of girls taken by the Taliban is not known because there were many. It can be more than 200 because they are picking up girls and women from every area in their Ranger vehicles,” Ms Mohib said. Some activists were picked up while protesting in front of a school, she said.

Women protesters like her are now in hiding as they fear arrest.

“I am also sick with fear, I can’t even go to the hospital because if I leave the house they will take me away. The whole city is in a terrible state,” says Ms Mohib, who was previously detained by the Taliban in raids in August last year.

Another activist who protested in Kabul last week says the situation in the Afghan capital has worsened significantly in recent months as the world looks away.

“The only thing women could do in Afghanistan was step out in the market despite facing very difficult conditions and even getting beaten up by the Taliban. Now, women’s rights activists are no longer allowed to go out,” the activist tells The Independent on the condition of anonymity.

“Women are the only group that is currently standing against the Taliban. This is the reason for our arrests and beatings,” she says.

Taliban’s officials have also threatened families and demanded heavy financial sums for their release, activists said.

“When the male family members go to the Taliban’s police stations asking for the release of women protesters, they are being asked to pay for bail,” Mohib said.

The Taliban’s deputy head of the prison administration office on Tuesday said around 19,000 people are currently held in prisons across Afghanistan for various crimes. These also include 800 women, he said.

The Taliban seized power on 15 August 2021 as US and Nato forces withdrew from the country after two decades of war.

It has since put in place a series of dictats based on the group’s strict interpretation of Sharia law, enforced in public by marauding armed militants. With no effective opposition remaining in the country, women’s rights have suffered a severe blow.

What began with a ban on girls attending school beyond sixth grade has evolved into a flurry of restrictions that now keep Afghan girls and women from classrooms, most jobs, and much of public life.

Senate border talks broaden to include Afghan evacuees, migrant work permits and high-skilled visas (CBS News)

CBS News [1/10/2024 9:32 PM, Camilo Montoya-Galvez and Margaret Brennan, 76.1K, Neutral]
While focused on plans to deter illegal border crossings, the ongoing immigration negotiations in the Senate have also included conversations about Afghan evacuees, the children of high-skilled visa-holders, and work permits for asylum-seekers, three people familiar with the talks told CBS News.

For weeks, the Biden administration and a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the Senate have been trying to strike a deal on a series of policies they hope will reduce unlawful border crossings, which have reached all-time highs over the past three years. Top Biden administration officials, led by White House deputy chief Natalie Quillian, have repeatedly met with Senate negotiators — Sens. James Lankford (R), Chris Murphy (D) and Kyrsten Sinema (I) — each week since mid-December.

Up until recently, the talks centered on tightening U.S. asylum laws, with negotiators focused on plans to allow border agents to swiftly expel migrants when a certain level in illegal crossings is reached, raise the standard to pass asylum interviews and expand expedited deportations of families traveling with children.

But negotiators have put other immigration items on the table, the three sources said, requesting anonymity to discuss closed-door talks. Most notably, there have been discussions to have the potential deal include the Afghan Adjustment Act, a bill that would allow tens of thousands of Afghans evacuated from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan to gain permanent legal status. Those evacuees are currently in legal limbo, unless they have been granted asylum or special visas for those who assisted American military forces.

Also under consideration is a plan to provide relief to the children of immigrants working in the U.S. on H-1B visas for high-skilled workers. This population, known as "Documented Dreamers," often face self-deportation when they turn 21 because they lose the legal status derived from their parents’ visas.

Another proposal being negotiated would make certain migrants eligible to work in the U.S. legally if they pass their preliminary asylum interviews. The plan would likely be welcomed by Democratic leaders who have complained about receiving large numbers of migrants who can’t work and sustain themselves.

The three items under discussion, which have not been previously reported, could make it easier for Democrats to support a border deal that, if finalized, would likely include stricter asylum and deportation provisions that have already alarmed progressives and advocates for migrants. But they may also fuel some divisions within Republicans ranks, since conservatives have increasingly rejected efforts to legalize immigrants or grant them work permits.

While all sides have signaled progress in recent weeks, the White House and Senate negotiators have not reached a final deal on overhauling U.S. border policy, which Republicans have said is a prerequisite to them supporting further military aid to Ukraine.

The main sticking point centers on the immigration parole authority, a 1950s law the Biden administration has used at unprecedented scale to resettle refugee-like populations — such as the Afghan evacuees and Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion — and to divert migrants away from the U.S. border by offering them opportunities to enter the country legally. While it does not offer recipients permanent legal status, parole allows federal officials to quickly welcome foreigners who would otherwise not be eligible to enter the country.

After telling congressional Democrats it would reject any limits on parole, the White House has recently put revisions to it on the table, recognizing that there’s no path to a deal without it since Republicans have not dropped the demand, people familiar with the internal deliberations said. Still, the administration does not want to see the authority gutted, since it has relied on it so heavily to reduce pressure at the U.S. southern border.

One limit suggested by Republican lawmakers — who view the administration’s use of parole as an abuse of the authority — would impose a numerical cap on the number of people who could be allowed to enter the U.S. via parole.

Negotiators eye harsher asylum laws

While the White House and lawmakers have continued to debate limits on parole, they have reached a general consensus on the border-related provisions, including making initial asylum screenings, known as credible fear interviews, harder to pass.

They have also been working on plans to expand a fast-track deportation program for families traveling with children and the creation of a legal authority that would allow the U.S. to summarily expel migrants to Mexico.

One proposal being considered would empower border officials to expel migrant adults and families from the U.S. unless they affirmatively ask for asylum, three sources said. The expulsions would be carried out similarly to those authorized by Title 42, the Trump-era pandemic-related order that expired last year. But it would be triggered by a certain threshold in migrant crossings, not public health conditions.

Those who are not expelled because they affirmatively claim fear of being persecuted in Mexico would undergo an asylum screening with a heightened, more-difficult-to-pass standard while in U.S. custody. Migrants who fail these interviews would be expelled from the U.S., while those who pass them would generally be released into the U.S. with access to work permits.

The Biden administration’s openness to stricter border measures and sweeping restrictions on asylum, some of which resemble Trump-era policies, represents a remarkable shift. Early on in his tenure, President Biden vowed to "restore" the U.S. asylum system and reject Trump-era policies that "contravened our values and caused needless human suffering."

"We’re a nation that says, ‘If you want to flee and you’re fleeing oppression, you should come,’" Mr. Biden said during one of the Democratic primary debates in 2019.

But three years into his presidency, Mr. Biden finds himself facing a humanitarian, operational and political crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border of unprecedented proportions. Over two-third of Americans disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of the situation there, according to a recent CBS News poll. More recently, Democratic mayors of cities struggling to house migrants have joined Republicans in criticizing the White House’s response to the crisis.

Of late, about a quarter-million migrants per month have been processed by U.S. border authorities. In December alone, Customs and Border Protection processed more than 300,000 migrants at and in between official ports of entry along the southern border — a record high.

Air Arabia resumes flights to Afghanistan after halting them 2 years ago as Taliban captured Kabul (AP)

AP [1/10/2024 9:44 AM, Staff, 6902K, Negative]
The Taliban government in Afghanistan on Wednesday confirmed the resumption of Air Arabia flights to Kabul’s international airport, two years after service stopped following the collapse of the Western-backed government.

Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation said the first Air Arabia flight landed Wednesday.

In a post on X, the ministry said there will be one daily flight between Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, and Kabul.

All international airlines halted flights to Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO forces departed after two decades of war.

In May, the Taliban signed a deal allowing an Emirati company to manage three airports in Afghanistan. Under the agreement, Abu Dhabi-based GAAC Solutions would manage the airports in Herat, Kabul and Kandahar.

In November, flydubai resumed flights to Kabul.

Two Afghan airlines, Kam Air and Ariana Afghan Airlines, operate from Kabul to destinations such as Dubai, Moscow, Islamabad and Istanbul.

Minister: Officials speak regularly but UK `some way off´ recognising Taliban (Daily Mail)

Daily Mail [1/10/2024 1:30 PM, Staff, 11975K, Neutral]
Britain is “some way off” moving to recognise the Taliban although officials from both sides speak regularly, according to a Foreign Office minister.

Andrew Mitchell said the UK Government has a “pragmatic dialogue” with the Taliban and it needs to keep the pressure on them to change their approach.

He also said the Government will keep “very much under review” calls to reopen the UK embassy in Afghanistan, but he noted the security and political situation does not currently allow them to re-establish a diplomatic presence in Kabul.

Mr Mitchell was responding to renewed calls from Conservative former minister Tobias Ellwood for the UK to re-engage with Taliban-led Afghanistan amid worries over a “looming” economic, humanitarian or terrorism crisis.

Mr Ellwood last summer faced a backlash after claiming that security in Afghanistan had “vastly improved” and “corruption is down” after the Taliban’s return.

He quit as Defence Committee chairman after a subsequent apology failed to prevent members of the cross-party body seeking to remove him from the post.

Taliban militants returned to power in summer 2021 after western forces, including the US and UK, withdrew following a 20-year occupation.

Speaking in Westminster Hall, Mr Mitchell said the Taliban’s “increasingly repressive” policies have had a “devastating impact” on women and girls in Afghanistan while minority groups face “discrimination and attacks”.

He said the basic expectations, as made clear by UN resolutions, include ensuring Afghanistan will “no longer be used as a base for terrorist activities”.

Mr Mitchell told MPs: “Our senior officials speak regularly to the Taliban, including to secure the release of four British national detainees last October.

“Officials also visit Kabul when the situation permits, including a visit last month from the British charge d’affaires to Kabul, where he met a wide range of senior Taliban figures.

“Regardless of the complexities of the relationship, the UK Government has helped lead the way in securing the Afghan people.

“In respect of (Mr Ellwood’s) plea about the embassy, we will note what he has said and keep that very much under review.”

The minister said the UK has dispersed more than £600 million since 2021 in aid for Afghanistan.

Mr Mitchell added: “Our intention since August 2021 has been to re-establish a diplomatic presence in Kabul when the security and political situation allows. We do not believe that is the case at the moment but officials continue to visit and we’ll keep this under close review.

“We’re clear thar we must have a pragmatic dialogue with the Taliban however this does not amount to recognition. We are some way off moving to recognise the Taliban and we need to keep the pressure on them to change their approach.

“This does not stop us from having an impact on the ground and directly helping the people of Afghanistan in any pragmatic way.”

Mr Ellwood earlier said there are 9 billion US dollars of frozen assets, telling MPs: “That could easily be used to provide conditionalities in improving rights for women and girls if we used it more cognitively.”

Mr Ellwood also said there is “no clarion call for regime change” among the Afghan population or the diasporas in the UK.

He said: “That begs the very difficult question – if the Afghan people are not calling for it, should we continue to punish the Afghan people because the Taliban are in charge?

“There are no easy options here but the challenges now facing this fragile country remain immense and the Taliban know this.”

Speaking of the need for the UK to re-evaluate its strategy, Mr Ellwood said: “We now have a duty to develop a strategy of engagement that moves from our current position of punishing the Afghan population for the Taliban’s takeover.

“Our approach to Afghanistan is not just at the moment incoherent, it’s ineffectual. Our financial support is down to just £100 million.

“An economic, humanitarian or terrorism crisis is looming. The Afghanistan threat is not just to the country itself but to the region and beyond.

“Let’s make sure Afghanistan and its people are not forgotten. It is time to engage, it is time to reopen our embassy.”

Conservative MP Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) said he could partly support Mr Ellwood’s remarks on engagement, saying: “No matter how much we detest a particular regime, a time always comes when if in reality it has established full control over a country it gets international recognition.”

He added: “Where I find it hard to go further with (Mr Ellwood) is in the belief that we can somehow manipulate this system in order to make significant improvements or avert significant threats from an Afghanistan run by the militant Taliban, even if he does detect – and I’m sure rightly – significant factions existing within the Taliban spectrum such as it is.”

Pakistan

Pakistan election candidate shot dead while campaigning (Reuters)

Reuters [1/10/2024 11:53 AM, Mushtaq Ali and Saleem Ahmed, 5239K, Negative]
A candidate in Pakistan’s general elections was shot dead while campaigning on Wednesday, police said, an incident likely to underscore concerns among political leaders that rising militant attacks could threaten the holding of the Feb. 8 polls.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack that killed three people including Malik Kaleem Ullah, an independent candidate for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Assembly. North Waziristan police chief Rohan Zaib Khan told Reuters that Kaleem Ullah was campaigning door to door when he was attacked.

Earlier on Wednesday, Mir Aslam Buledi, a Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) National Assembly candidate from the south-western province of Balochistan, was seriously injured in an armed attack, Deputy Commissioner for Turbat Hassan Jan Baloch told Reuters.

Elections in the politically and economically troubled South Asian nation have been scheduled for Feb. 8 after several delays. Last week the senate passed a non-binding resolution to further delay the elections, citing security concerns and a harsh winter in northern areas.

Islamist militants, who aim to overthrow the government and install their own brand of strict Islamic law in the predominantly Muslim country of 241 million people, have stepped up attacks since revoking a ceasefire agreement with the government in late 2022.

Pakistan in fight over election delay with less than a month to go (Nikkei Asia)

Nikkei Asia [1/11/2024 3:17 AM, Adnan Aamir, 293K, Neutral]
Calls from multiple players to delay Pakistan’s upcoming general election threaten what is left of the country’s fragile democracy, experts say, though many expect the polls will go ahead in the end.

The clearest push for a postponement so far came last Friday, when the Senate passed a resolution urging the government to put off the Feb. 8 vote due to security concerns. Molana Fazal ur Rehman, Pakistan’s leading Islamist politician, also endorsed the resolution.

Fears of violence are not unfounded. On Monday, six policemen were killed by the Pakistani Taliban in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province during an anti-polio campaign, just the latest attack on security personnel. Last Friday, a religious cleric belonging to a Sunni sectarian group was gunned down in Islamabad, sparking protests.

But while deteriorating security provides a pretext for pushing back the election, many politicians, civil society activists and political commentators told Nikkei Asia that further delaying the already late vote would damage the democratic system.

"A prolonged caretaker setup that is beholden to the [military] establishment but not accountable to the people of Pakistan has eroded civilian say in governance," said Amber Rahim Shamsi, a political commentator based in Karachi.

After former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022, a coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party took over. Last August, it dissolved for a caretaker government to oversee elections, which were originally supposed to be held in late 2023.

Cyril Almeida, a politics expert in Islamabad, believes that Pakistan is now operating outside constitutional parameters. He said a fixation has developed on simply preventing Khan -- a former cricket star turned Islamist populist now jailed over corruption allegations he denies -- from making a comeback.

"Military and the civilians not aligned with Imran Khan have a single-point agenda: Keep Imran Khan out of power," he said. "So whatever it takes to achieve that, the military and its civilian allies are willing to contemplate."

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which complains of an uneven playing field, is down but not necessarily out. Election nomination papers for Khan and an overwhelming majority of PTI leaders were initially rejected. Later, appellate tribunals overturned most of the decisions, albeit not for Khan.

On Wednesday, the High Court in Peshawar ruled that the PTI can contest elections under its trademark symbol, a cricket bat. Earlier, the Election Commission had deprived the PTI of its symbol on a technicality.

Meanwhile, once-exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif this week had his ban from politics lifted, clearing him to run. Sharif and his PML-N party are now widely considered the preference of the military establishment.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has expressed concern about the electoral process. "At this point, there is little evidence to show that the upcoming elections will be free, fair, or credible," it said in a Jan. 1 statement on X, formerly Twitter.

Shahid Maitla, another political analyst in Islamabad, believes the establishment and caretaker government have failed to check the popularity of Khan, who still has vast appeal among the masses. "The curtailment of Khan’s party is being achieved through the management of courts, police and media," he said.

He said that some in the "business community, caretakers and unpopular political players like JUI-F are the ones having vested interests are exerting pressure on the establishment to postpone [the] polls," referring to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal, the largest Islamist party, led by Rehman.

Maitla even suggested that some members of the caretaker government are lobbying prominent journalists to influence the establishment and judiciary to delay the elections so that they can continue to rule.

Yet, the growing unpopularity of the interim administration is making that case more difficult, experts say.

In recent days, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar and Information Minister Murtaza Solangi have faced severe criticism for comments they made at different forums. Kakar suggested women from Balochistan province protesting forced disappearances were "advocates of terrorists" and asked those who are supporting them to "go and join them."

Maitla said that the caretaker government has also failed to effectively communicate Pakistan’s position on the repatriation of Afghan migrants and the Israel-Hamas war. "Kakar proved a poor choice" for prime minister, he argued, saying Kakar is keen to interact with the media but "earned embarrassment."

"The establishment is not happy with the caretakers at all," Maitla said. "If elections had not been nearing, many of them would have been replaced."

Almeida in Islamabad said the interim government has overstepped.

"All caretaker governments lack political legitimacy, but this particular group has tried to leverage the support it has of the military into space for weighing in on policy matters and national controversies," he said.

That leaves elections as the best bet to form a more legitimate government, despite the efforts to delay them.

A well-placed source within the security establishment denied rumors that Kakar could be replaced. "‘[Kakar] will complete his tenure and elections will be held on time," the source told Nikkei on condition of anonymity.

"With Nawaz Sharif back in the country and now cleared to take part in elections, it is unlikely elections will be postponed at this late stage," Almeida argued.

Maitla agreed. The "election is a compulsion rather than a choice for the country and more so for the establishment, as it is losing its capital fast from the domestic to the international front."

India

India Officials Concerned After 28 Students Deported From US (VOA)

VOA [1/10/2024 11:30 AM, Staff, 761K, Neutral]
A total of 28 students have been deported from the United States to India in 2023, according to Indian Minister of State for External Affairs V Muraleedharan.

India Today reported that the Indian government has expressed concerns to the United States about the deportation of students with valid visas.

U.K. to deploy warships, aircraft carrier in training with India (Reuters)

Reuters [1/10/2024 6:48 AM, Alistair Smout and Sachin Ravikumar, 293K, Positive]
Britain said on Wednesday it would send warships to the Indian Ocean later this year and an aircraft carrier to the region in 2025 for joint training and operations with Indian forces as the two countries strengthen their security ties.

British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said the Royal Navy’s Littoral Response Group would visit the Indian Ocean region this year and its Carrier Strike Group the next.

"There is absolutely no question that the world is becoming increasingly contested, so it’s vital that we continue to build on our strategic relationships with key partners like India," Shapps said in a statement as his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh visited Britain.

"Together we share the same security challenges and are steadfast on our commitment to maintaining a free and prosperous Indo-Pacific."

Britain and India will also conduct more complex joint military exercises in the coming years, in support of their shared goal of protecting trade routes and ensuring maritime security, the British Ministry of Defence said.

India pledges ‘appropriate action’ after completing cough syrup bribe probe (Reuters)

Reuters [1/10/2024 10:19 AM, Krishna N. Das, 5239K, Negative]
India will take "appropriate action" after completing an investigation into a complaint that a drug regulator helped switch samples of cough syrup linked to the death of children in Gambia in return for a bribe, two officials said on Wednesday.

The World Health Organization (WHO) linked the syrups made by India’s Maiden Pharmaceuticals to the deaths of 70 children in 2022, though India’s government said subsequent tests at an Indian government laboratory showed the syrups were not toxic.

Maiden, whose factory is based in Haryana state, denies wrongdoing.

Reuters reported in June last year that a lawyer named Yashpal accused Haryana’s drug controller, Manmohan Taneja, of taking a bribe of 50 million rupees ($602,195) from Maiden to help switch the samples before they went for tests at the government laboratory. Taneja has denied the charges.

The investigator, Gagandeep Singh and Haryana FDA Commissioner Ashok Kumar Meena, told Reuters their superiors would decide on the "appropriate action" on the matter "as per law", declining to share their findings.

"We are very much clear that if anyone has done anything wrong, we will take strict action," Meena said. "There’s zero tolerance against corruption. If any wrong thing is found, action will be taken, whether it is Taneja or anyone else."

Taneja did not respond to a call and a message seeking comment outside business hours. He told Reuters in October that the probe had been triggered by a "fake complaint from a fake person" and that "anyone can send any fake complaint against anyone".

Yashpal, who goes by one name, also did not respond to a call and a text message seeking comment.

Maiden founder Naresh Kumar Goyal told Reuters he was not aware of the status of the investigation. He earlier said his company neither switched the sample nor paid a bribe to Taneja.

Meena said the report would go to the level of Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, whose office did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

In his complaint, Yashpal did not say where he got the information, or provide evidence for his claim about the syrups made by Maiden. He told Reuters in June he had learned about the alleged bribe from at least two individuals in India’s pharmaceutical industry, including one within Maiden, but declined to identify them for fear of retribution.

Indian-made cough syrups have been linked to the deaths of at least 141 children in Gambia, Uzbekistan and Cameroon since 2022, hurting the image of the world’s largest drug-manufacturing country after the United States and China.

India’s Opposition Party Declines to Attend Ram Temple Opening (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [1/11/2024 1:22 AM, Swati Gupta, 5543K, Neutral]
India’s main political opposition party Wednesday “respectfully” declined to attend one of the most important religious and political events of the year, months before the country heads to the polls.

In a statement, the Indian National Congress said that its senior leaders would not be attending the inauguration ceremony of the controversial Ram temple in Ayodhya on Jan. 22. “Lord Ram is worshiped by millions in our country,” read the party statement. “Religion is a personal matter.”

The Congress Party described the inauguration of an “incomplete” temple — work continues frenetically to finish the inner section of the temple, including projects to spruce up the city’s infrastructure — as a BJP bid for electoral gain.

The BJP has called for the temple’s construction in every election manifesto for years, after Hindu extremists tore down an existing mosque on the same site in 1992. India’s Supreme Court ordered the entire site handed over to a Hindu trust to build the temple in 2019. Construction of the temple began in 2020 with a groundbreaking ceremony led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Ayodhya and the Ram temple has been a BJP issue and they are the ones that made it into a political issue,” said Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based author and political analyst. “The Congress really had no option but to decline the invitation. Why should the Congress, as a political party, participate in an event which is so clearly a political event, which the BJP hopes will be an election winner?” she added.

A BJP spokesperson described the Congress Party’s refusal to attend the ceremony as a plan “to hurt the beliefs of Indians, a conspiracy to insult them.” The official went on to add that India’s citizens “will never forgive this politics of hatred by the Congress.”

Modi will be present at the inauguration alongside other senior BJP leaders. Political leaders from other parties, prominent businessmen and showbiz and sports celebrities are all believed to be on the invite list for the temple’s consecration ceremony.

Indian Army chief says 416 Myanmar soldiers crossed into India in 2 months (Reuters)

Reuters [1/11/2024 1:30 AM, Krishn Kaushik, 5239K, Neutral]
More than 400 Myanmar Army personnel entered India through the porous border in the last two months, India’s army chief General Manoj Pande said on Thursday, as fighting continues between rebel forces in Myanmar and the junta-regime.

Myanmar’s generals are facing their biggest test since they seized power in a 2021 coup after three ethnic minority forces launched a coordinated offensive in late October, capturing some towns and military posts and forcing soldiers to flee.

Indian authorities have been sending back Myanmar troops within days of them crossing over.

NSB

Bangladesh’s Flawed Election Increases Polarization, Risk of Violence (The Diplomat)

The Diplomat [1/10/2024 5:19 AM, Pierre Prakash, 201K, Neutral]
Bangladesh’s January 7 general election had many of the trappings of a democratic poll — thousands of candidates, scores of vote monitoring organizations, large rallies, a swarming press pack, and even catchy campaign tunes. More important was what the vote lacked: any semblance of competition and the participation of most voters.

Opposition forces led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) decided to boycott the poll after the Awami League (AL) government refused to hold the election under a caretaker government. Authorities arrested most of the BNP’s leaders following a massive rally in late October. The boycott meant that long before polling booths closed on January 7, it was clear Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League would secure a fourth term with a large majority.

It was therefore no surprise when the Election Commission announced that AL candidates or party members running as independents had won 283 of 300 elected seats. In most of the other constituencies, the AL had withdrawn its candidates to let allies or faux-opposition figures win in order to give the vote a veneer of credibility.

But while this election win secures the AL another five-year term, it risks being a pyrrhic victory. The party’s huge majority masks the deep fault lines in Bangladeshi politics, which were more accurately reflected in the turnout. The Election Commission claimed more than 40 percent of registered voters cast their votes, but that figure seems suspiciously high when looking at how empty the polling booths were throughout the day. Whatever the case, even the higher-end estimate points to a very low turnout compared to the 75-85 percent typically seen in competitive polls of recent decades.

With no real opposition, many people simply had little incentive to vote. But the January 7 election – or “selection,” to its critics – was also something of a referendum on the AL government after 15 years in power. The turnout reflects a level of dissatisfaction with the government’s recent performance; support for the ruling party has suffered due to its heavy-handed crackdown on domestic critics, perceptions of growing corruption and cronyism, and economic mismanagement. These factors, along with geopolitical shifts, also gave new momentum to an opposition that had appeared on its last legs just a few years ago.

Over the past 18 months, the BNP has waged a mostly peaceful campaign seeking to force Hasina to hand over power to a caretaker government that would manage the vote. While its demand fell on deaf ears, the opposition defied the naysayers, bringing out hundreds of thousands of supporters to rallies in Dhaka.

After police shut down the BNP’s grand rally on October 28 and arrested its leadership, the AL government, desperate to inject some credibility into the election, tried to foment a split in the party, assuring senior BNP officials they would be freed from prison if they agreed to run. In the end, however, only one took up the offer, securing bail and immediately gaining pre-selection for an AL ticket. But the BNP as a whole survived that test of its unity and kept up its campaign for a boycott. Although many of its members – and most of its leaders – are in prison, it remains a potent political force.

This leaves Bangladesh delicately poised. The AL remains in power, but its legitimacy is increasingly contested, and frustration among voters is at an all-time high after three successive flawed elections. The opposition’s non-violent strategy – a departure from the violence more typically seen in Bangladeshi politics – has been effective in mobilizing crowds and rebuilding the party’s image at home and abroad, yet failed to achieve its goal. There is now the risk of increased political violence: With most of its moderate leaders in prison, the opposition could give in to pressure from some factions that want to see it return to the more overtly violent tactics of the past. This would be a strategic blunder, however, as it would give the AL government more opportunities to portray the BNP as the cause of Bangladesh’s problems, both at home and abroad.

In recent days, meanwhile, Sheikh Hasina has foreshadowed the possibility of further crackdowns on the BNP, telling supporters the party “has no right to do politics.” While it is unclear what exactly she meant by that statement, banning the BNP would be a mistake. Not only would such a move rob Bangladeshis of genuine political choice and further isolate Bangladesh politically from Western countries on which it depends for trade, but it would also be difficult to enforce in practice. The Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami was declared illegal in 2013, yet remains politically active, for example.

More importantly, pushing the BNP underground would further polarize the country. Already, the smaller opposition parties that also boycotted the election are coalescing into a single movement around the BNP. Banning the party would only accelerate this trend, uniting leftists, the centrist BNP, and some Islamist forces.

Although the BNP has announced it would not hold protests or blockades in the week following the election, the opposition is widely expected to carry out further political activities aimed at undermining the government and forcing its resignation. While it seems unlikely this movement could force the AL from office, the government may feel compelled to adopt an even more authoritarian posture to prevent protests from escalating. Given the security forces have in the past targeted opposition forces with forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, this prospect is deeply concerning.

It could also have implications for the economy, which is teetering due to declining foreign currency reserves and persistently high inflation. Uncertainty, instability, and potential violence on the streets are hardly likely to help policymakers seeking to stabilize the ship. Such an environment could also hurt investor confidence – particularly for image-conscious Western brands that source from Bangladesh’s garment sector, which generates the large majority of the country’s export revenues.

There is an alternative to further repression and violence, however: a dialogue aimed at rebuilding a modicum of trust between the two major parties, paving the way for the BNP’s return to electoral politics. This will require concessions from both sides, but primarily from the AL. While it is clearly in a position of strength, the ruling party has reasons to compromise given the level of domestic opposition it faces, along with economic and geopolitical headwinds. To begin with, the government should enable BNP leaders to get bail (by not opposing their applications) in exchange for the opposition calling off some of its anti-government activities. The ruling party could then take other steps to defuse tensions – such as allowing ailing BNP leader Khaleda Zia to travel overseas for medical treatment. The BNP, for its part, should relax its hardline position on Hasina’s resignation, which at this point is a non-starter.

Given the events of recent years, it will be extremely challenging for the two parties to work toward an agreement. But for the sake of Bangladesh’s 170 million citizens, both parties need to show political leadership and move away from zero-sum politics in which they view each election as an existential fight that they cannot afford to lose.

Foreign governments, particularly the United States and India, which wield the most influence in Dhaka, will have an important role to play in nudging both sides into talks in the wake of the highly flawed January 7 election.

Bangladesh Votes for Continuity. It Needs Change (Bloomberg – opinion)

Bloomberg [1/10/2024 5:00 PM, Mihir Sharma, 5543K, Positive]
The results of Bangladesh’s election last weekend were pre-ordained: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s party, the Awami League, won for the fourth consecutive time. Hasina, already the world’s longest-serving female head of government, will now embark on another five-year term.

The League’s pitch to voters was simple: The party had helped the country post impressive growth numbers and should be allowed to keep doing so. Its victory was overwhelming. Sheikh Hasina should not, however, take that as a mandate to continue with business as usual.

For one thing, turnout in the elections was only 40%, suggesting a large proportion of the electorate responded to calls by the country’s main opposition party, the Bangladesh National Party, to boycott the vote. The BNP wanted elections to be conducted under an independent caretaker administration; instead, the Awami League stayed in office. The US State Department said this week that it agrees with the opposition that “these elections were not free or fair.” The UK also expressed concern over the arrest of opposition members ahead of the vote.

Several of Bangladesh’s regional partners — especially India and Japan — believe continuity in Dhaka is a good thing. India worries that the BNP is too soft on Islamists, and Japan believes that Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina will be a firm partner in Tokyo’s efforts to forge a new, Asia-centric security framework to counter China.

But the US is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, and it would be bad news for the country if its relationship with West broke down over human-rights concerns. Trade sanctions could devastate its export-dependent economy.

Even without them, Bangladesh ought to be urgently rethinking its growth model. To date, the country has carefully followed the advice given by every mainstream development economist: Small developing countries should concentrate on increasing exports to the rich world. Decades ago, Dhaka’s policy makers decided to focus on the ready-made garments trade. They succeeded: The country of 170 million people is now the world’s second-largest clothing exporter, behind only China.

It hasn’t always been easy. In 2013, over 1,110 people died when an eight-story building called Rana Plaza collapsed. It was home to multiple small garment factories making clothes for brands such as Primark and Zara. There was outrage, at home and abroad, that workers were toiling away in unsafe conditions.

The government had to respond swiftly. Together with major brands and trade unions, it signed an “accord on fire and building safety” — called the Bangladesh Accord — committing to more regular inspections and giving workers a larger voice in safety complaints.

Today, Bangladesh faces a problem generated by its own success. The garments sector has become so efficient and profitable that it soaks up all of Dhaka’s policy attention, as well as all of the country’s spare capital and entrepreneurial energy. As a result, Bangladesh’s exports are perilously imbalanced.

According to the country’s central bank, the garments sector was responsible for 85.9% of the country’s export earnings between October and December of 2022. And nine countries — the US, UK, Canada, and five large European economies — accounted for more than 70% of those exports.

That dependency renders the country vulnerable to more than sanctions. Bangladesh has for years been the top beneficiary of the various exceptions to tariffs and intellectual property requirements granted to the world’s “least developed” countries: Nearly three-quarters of its exports take advantage of one or another special exemption. The country is due to graduate from LDC status in 2026 and could lose those privileges.

Before then, the new government must figure out how to lock in tariff-free access to the country’s main export markets, ideally through signing various free-trade agreements. Trade pacts with markets in its own region — particularly the economies of Southeast Asia — also ought to be a priority. Bangladesh is one of the least regionally integrated economies in the world. Although three-quarters of its merchandise imports come from Asia, only 16% of its exports are sold back to the region.

Even more importantly, Bangladesh will need to work harder to develop new export industries, from pharmaceuticals to software services. While it has the human capital and technical prowess to sustain these sectors, they haven’t yet taken off.

Partly that’s because the Awami League’s long tenure has created strong domestic interest groups and incumbent firms with no interest in altering the status quo. A more modern policy mix — one that broadens access to capital and encourages innovation — isn’t what these entrenched interests want to see. If Sheikh Hasina really wants her country to remain a success, she will need to seek out new supporters.

Bhutan Opposition Party Wins Elections Amid Economic Threats to ‘Gross National Happiness’ (Time)

Time [1/10/2024 6:15 AM, Koh Ewe, 13914K, Neutral]
Voters in Bhutan are putting new hope in their former Prime Minister, 58-year-old Tshering Tobgay, who has been elevated back into power amid increasing economic frustrations in the nation once dubbed the happiest in the world.

According to the results of Tuesday’s election, announced by the election commission on Wednesday, Tobgay’s People’s Democratic Party is set to be the new ruling party, having won 30 of 47 seats in the national assembly. Meanwhile, the former ruling Bhutan Tendrel Party, which won the other 17 seats, returns to the opposition. (Three other parties were eliminated in an earlier round of voting held in November.)

Bhutan, a landlocked kingdom of less than 1 million people in the Eastern Himalayas between India and China, was long ruled by absolute monarchy, but has held four parliamentary elections since 2008, when it converted to a constitutional monarchy.

But as some 330,000 people (or 65.6% of eligible voters) cast their votes on Tuesday, the latest election coincided with a spiraling economic crisis that has cast doubts on the nation’s enduring focus on happiness, which some argue has come at the expense of economic growth.

The pursuit of happiness has long been embedded in Bhutan’s governance. The idea of gauging the nation’s success by gross national happiness (GNH) instead of gross domestic product (GDP) was first proposed by the fourth King of Bhutan in 1972; in the years since, Bhutan’s leaders have promoted the index at international forums. Meant to measure development by the likes of psychological well-being and cultural diversity—factors that are excluded in calculations of the more widely used GDP—the alternative framework was initially hailed as a more holistic measure of development, especially amid growing cynicism about Western capitalism.

But today, gloomy economic prospects are casting a shadow over Bhutan’s residents. The World Bank estimates that Bhutan’s GDP has grown at an average rate of just 1.6% in the last five years. And youth unemployment, which has plagued the nation for years and currently stands at 29%, has led to record numbers of young people migrating abroad in search of job opportunities.

Tobgay, who led the government from 2013 to 2018, warned during his campaign of these “unprecedented economic challenges and mass exodus,” and he pledged to stimulate the economy by attracting greater foreign investment and expanding the tourism sector. His party has nevertheless also voiced its commitment to maintaining the national philosophy of measuring success by the “happiness and well-being of the people.”

Tobgay has also been forthright in the past about the disparity between Bhutan’s “Shangri-la” reputation and its more bleak reality: “My country is not one big monastery populated with happy monks,” he said during a TED Talk in 2016. “We are a small, underdeveloped country doing our best to survive.”

Tshering Tobgay set to return as Bhutan PM after liberal PDP wins elections (Al Jazeera)

Al Jazeera [1/10/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 2.1M, Neutral]
Bhutan’s liberal People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is set to form a new government after winning in parliamentary elections, according to results from the country’s electoral body.

PDP leader Tshering Tobgay, 58, who was prime minister from 2013 to 2018, is set to become the new premier for a second five-year term.

The Election Commission of Bhutan (ECB) released its provisional results on Wednesday, a day after the tiny Himalayan kingdom held elections, which showed the PDP winning its fourth free vote since democratic elections began 15 years ago.

The PDP won 30 seats in the 47-member parliament, or National Assembly, with the rest of the seats going to the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP), according to the early tally by the ECB.

The PDP was formed in 2007 by Tobgay.

Tobgay campaigned on the promise of boosting the economy and reducing unemployment rates, despite the country’s constitutionally enshrined philosophy of measuring success in terms of “Gross National Happiness” instead of gross domestic product (GDP).

Voter turnout was at 65.6 percent, with 326,775 people casting their ballot from the 498,135 eligible registered voters, according to the ECB. They chose members of parliament from a pool of 94 candidates presented by the BTP and the PDP.

A first round of voting in November eliminated three other parties, including the governing centre-left Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa party.

The picturesque nation nestled between China and India is still struggling to revive its aid and tourism dependent economy following the COVID-19 pandemic.

India is Bhutan’s biggest donor, and while the Himalayan nation has no ties with China, it is in talks with Beijing to resolve border disputes. The negotiations are closely watched by India, which has its own border dispute with China.

“Heartiest congratulations to my friend @tsheringtobgay and the People’s Democratic Party for winning the parliamentary elections in Bhutan,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X. “Look forward to working together again to further strengthen our unique ties of friendship and cooperation.”

In 2008, the country underwent a transformation from a traditional monarchy to a parliamentary form of government.

Bhutan’s Elections Are a Bright Spot in South Asia (Foreign Policy)

Foreign Policy [1/10/2024 8:00 PM, Michael Kugelman, 315K, Neutral]
Bhutan Elects a New Prime Minister
On Tuesday, Bhutan held a runoff to determine the country’s next prime minister, with voters choosing between Tshering Tobgay, a former premier with the People’s Democratic Party, and former bureaucrat Pema Chewang, who leads the relatively new Bhutan Tendrel Party. Tobgay won after his party took 30 of the country’s 47 national assembly seats.

With democracy under assault across much of South Asia, Bhutan seems to be an outlier. It began a relatively smooth transition from traditional monarchy to democracy a little more than 15 years ago. But unlike the elections held in Bangladesh last Sunday and those scheduled in Pakistan on Feb. 8, Bhutan’s vote wasn’t plagued by concerns about rigging and unlevel playing fields.

This week’s election was the country’s fourth. Bhutan began initiating political liberalization in the 1990s, and in 2008, it became a full-fledged parliamentary democracy, established a new constitution, and held its first democratic elections. The country retains its monarchy; King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk is charismatic and popular, but he wields relatively little political power.

To be sure, Bhutan’s democracy is imperfect. Freedom House characterizes the country as “partly free,” citing media censorship and discrimination against religious and linguistic minorities. Concerns abound about impunity and a lack of accountability among the Bhutanese political class.

Furthermore, this year’s election played out against a glum backdrop, especially for a country that famously uses “gross national happiness” to measure governance success. Bhutan’s economy is suffering, in part due to a tourism sector still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The youth unemployment rate is 29 percent in a country—and half of its population is under 30 years old. Young people are leaving Bhutan in record numbers.

Both runoff candidates made economic recovery the central pillars of their campaigns. Bhutan’s neighbors—especially India—can also help. Bhutan is flush with hydropower potential, and energy-deficient New Delhi would be a useful customer. India is already contributing to Bhutan’s economic development through infrastructure projects, including a recently announced railroad initiative.

However, Bhutan’s ties to India also make it a battleground for India-China competition and sometimes confrontation. In 2017, India and China clashed over Doklam, a border area claimed by both Bhutan and China. This week, India’s NDTV published satellite images that it said show a Chinese military presence on territory claimed by Bhutan.

Like other states in South Asia, Bhutan doesn’t like getting caught up in the India-China rivalry, but it does benefit from any economic assistance that the regional powers may provide to shore up their influence. Both New Delhi and Beijing were undoubtedly watching this week’s election carefully.

Bhutan’s election was nonetheless a breath of fresh air in a region where electoral politics are often toxic. The first round of voting in November, which the incumbent party lost, proceeded without major incident. On Tuesday, there was no reported violence, nor crackdowns or boycotts. No opposition leaders have been jailed or convicted on politically motivated charges, and the election loser isn’t about to reject the result.

It’s certainly easier to hold stable elections in a country of less than a million people than in one of several hundred million, or even a billion. But in a region where democracy’s trajectory seems to be trending downward, Bhutan’s democratic transition—and the relatively free, fair, and credible polls that have followed—is a quiet success story.

What We’re Following

Bangladesh’s Hasina wins fourth term. To no one’s surprise, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina triumphed in last Sunday’s elections. Her Awami League party was essentially running against itself. With the main opposition party boycotting the polls, most of those running against Hasina were either members of weaker parties or independents aligned with the Awami League.

Global reactions to the results varied. Non-Western powers, including China, India, and Russia, quickly issued congratulations to Hasina. Strikingly, Pakistan—one of the few South Asian states not comfortable with Hasina, given her close ties to India—also quickly offered its felicitations. Reactions in the West were more critical than congratulatory. The U.S. State Department said it “shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair.”

But Washington also emphasized that it remains committed to partnership with Dhaka. This perhaps signals that Western approaches to Bangladesh will continue to push human rights and democracy even while strengthening relations with a country seen as strategically significant.

India-Maldives spat. When Mohamed Muizzu won the Maldives’ presidential election in November, many observers thought it could spell some challenges for relations with India, given his pro-China reputation. But few could have anticipated the diplomatic spat that has emerged in recent days, with Maldives officials leveling insults against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indian celebrities calling for a travel boycott of the island nation.

It all began when Modi posted images of himself enjoying the beaches of Lakshadweep, an Indian archipelago. Some in the Maldives thought Modi was suggesting that Indians vacation there instead of in the Maldives. Three officials—all from the youth ministry—responded with insults. Senior members of the Maldives government—including the foreign minister, but not Muizzu—condemned the comments.

On Sunday, the Maldives announced the three officials had been suspended, but the damage was already done. India’s External Affairs Ministry summoned the Maldives ambassador in New Delhi to express its concerns. A large Indian online travel platform has halted flight bookings to the Maldives.

Still, the crisis is unlikely to derail India-Maldives relations, which both sides have a strong interest in maintaining. New Delhi won’t want to give Muizzu’s government an opportunity to drift more closely to Beijing, while the Maldives is dependent not only on Indian tourism revenue, but also on development assistance from India, especially infrastructure.

Afghanistan-based group implicated in Iran attacks. According to U.S. intelligence, Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), the Afghanistan-based affiliate of the Islamic State, carried out the Jan. 3 attacks in Iran that killed nearly 100 people attending a memorial ceremony for Gen. Qassem Suleimani, a senior Iranian military official killed in a U.S. drone strike in 2020. The Islamic State claimed the attack, but it didn’t specifically mention IS-K.

IS-K has struck in Iran before, but never on this scale. The tragedy is a reminder of the threat that the group projects beyond Afghanistan, where it carries out most of its attacks. (It has also hit Pakistan and a few Central Asian states.) It also validates the recent warnings from IS-K scholars about the group making headway beyond Afghanistan.

IS-K, which was formally established in 2014, benefited from the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, even though the two groups are rivals. Many IS-K fighters were freed in Taliban prison breaks, the group likely inherited weapons left behind by collapsing Afghan military forces, and it no longer faces the threat of NATO airstrikes.

Under the Radar

Around 400 Nepali citizens are fighting alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, according to a recent disclosure by Nepal’s foreign minister, Narayan Saud, who spoke with NPR in a report broadcast this week. Many Nepali fighters decided to join the Russian army for better economic opportunities or to benefit from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that foreigners can get fast-tracked Russian citizenship if they spend a year in the country’s armed forces.

However, the Nepali men may not have realized that they would be on the front lines of a brutal war. Several of them have died, and others are out of contact with their families. Nepal’s government is trying to address the problem by cracking down on traffickers that smuggle the men into Russia via India and the United Arab Emirates.

The situation reflects a broader trend in which economic stress has prompted Nepali citizens to travel far away, at great risk, to work in dangerous conditions to make a better living. In recent years, thousands of migrant workers from Nepal have died in the Persian Gulf region due to extreme heat, illness, road accidents, and suicide—including those who toiled under life-threatening conditions in Qatar to help with preparations for the 2022 World Cup.

Regional Voices

Technology policy experts Lalantika Arvind and Srishti Joshi, writing in the Print, criticize a new Indian government initiative to reduce harmful content on social media. It was a “well-intentioned endeavour to ring an alarm bell and emphasise the need for intermediary accountability for user safety,” they write. “However, it went beyond what the law requires, resulting in impractical compliance obligations.”

A Dawn editorial welcomes a Pakistani Supreme Court ruling this week that reverses its own 2018 decision that disqualifications from public office last for life. “It cannot be up to the law to choose, based on such arbitrary conditions, who is and who isn’t ‘morally deserving’ of leadership and who, therefore, is to be allowed to participate in the electoral process,” it argues.

Scholar Dorji Wangchuk calls for the revitalization of Bhutan’s air travel industry in Kuensel. “Our airlines are more than just airlines. They are our connection and our lifeline to the world,” he writes. “I travel a lot. Nothing is more reassuring than seeing your own people and the flag waiting for you in India, Nepal or Thailand to take you back home.”

Maldives upgrades ties with China amid pivot from India (Reuters)

Reuters [1/10/2024 5:06 PM, Joe Cash, 5239K, Positive]
China and the Maldives upgraded their relationship on Wednesday during newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu’s first state visit to Beijing, following a campaign in which he cast China’s regional rival India as a threat to sovereignty.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking at the Great Hall of the People, called Muizzu "an old friend" as the Asian giant set the stage for further investment in the Indian Ocean archipelago by agreeing to a "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership".

"China and the Maldives’ relations are facing a historic opportunity to carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future," Xi told Muizzu, Chinese state media reported.

Muizzu took office in November, after winning on his "India Out" campaign platform under which he called New Delhi’s huge influence a threat to sovereignty. His government has since asked dozens of locally based Indian military personnel to leave while talking up opportunities for Chinese investors despite being heavily indebted to Beijing.

Relations between India and China nosedived after soldiers from both sides clashed in the western Himalayas in June 2020, resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops.

By upgrading ties with the Maldives, China is setting the stage for further investment in a region where India has already seen another neighbour, Sri Lanka, gravitate towards China.

"During the talks, President Dr Muizzu expressed gratitude for China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success... and infrastructure development," a statement from his presidential office read following the meeting, adding that "20 key agreements between the two countries" had been signed.

The Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, or around 20% of its public debt, according to World Bank data, making Beijing its biggest bilateral creditor ahead of Saudi Arabia and India, which it owes $124 million and $123 million, respectively.

Chinese firms have invested a further $1.37 billion in the Maldives since its decision to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, data from the American Enterprise Institute think tank shows.

"China firmly supports the Maldives in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence and national dignity," state media reported Xi as saying. Beijing would also be willing to "exchange experience of state governance" with Male, Xinhua said.

Muizzu was given a tour of the Chinese Communist Party Museum in Beijing ahead of meeting with Xi, a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, from his presidential office account showed.

The World Bank in an October development report on the Maldives warned further cosying up to China could spell trouble as a "build-up of sovereign exposure" had taken place during the pandemic and there was a "lack of domestic investment opportunities".

Xi said he backed increasing the number of direct flights between the two countries, in a potential boon for the Maldives’ travel and tourism sector, which constituted 79% of economic growth in 2022, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Maldives’ president meets Xi, woos Chinese tourists amid India spat (Nikkei Asia)

Nikkei Asia [1/10/2024 7:12 AM, CK Tan and Kiran Sharma, 293K, Neutral]
The Maldives’ new president, Mohamed Muizzu, met Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday, seeking more investment and tourists amid a souring of ties with India.

Xi hailed the two countries’ cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative since he visited Male, the Maldivian capital, in 2014. "Under the new circumstances, China-Maldives relations are confronted with a historic opportunity to build on past achievements and forge ahead," Xi added during their summit, aired by state broadcaster CCTV.

Muizzu’s trip to China ahead of the traditional first stop in India was already seen as a clear sign of the Maldives’ tilt toward Beijing and away from New Delhi, both of which seek influence in the strategically situated Indian Ocean archipelago. But the tour came just as a major diplomatic row with India erupted over Maldivian ministers’ disparaging remarks about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, raising the stakes.

Angry Indians have been pushing for a boycott of the islands, known for their idyllic resorts. At a business forum in Fuzhou on Tuesday, Muizzu vowed to diversify tourism products and offer new experiences, asking China to send more travelers.

"China was our No. 1 market pre-COVID, and it is my request that we intensify efforts for China to regain this position," he said.

Last year, India was the top sender of tourists, according to Maldivian statistics. But while Muizzu was kicking off his China tour, scheduled from Monday to Friday, the tiny island nation’s ties with its much bigger South Asian neighbor appeared to be rapidly fraying.

The row erupted after Modi made a series of posts on X promoting tourism in India’s Lakshadweep islands off the coast of its southern state of Kerala. Modi did not refer to the Maldives in any of these posts, which were illustrated with pictures of Lakshadweep’s serene beaches and the prime minister walking, relaxing in an armchair and snorkeling.

"For those who wish to embrace the adventurer in them, Lakshadweep has to be on your list," Modi wrote on Jan. 4.

Some Maldivian ministers appeared to take Modi’s posts as an attempt to lure away tourists from their country. Among them was Mariyam Shiuna, deputy minister of youth empowerment, who called Modi a "clown" and "the puppet of Israel" in a now-deleted X post widely shared via screenshots. Modi had been quick to express support for Israel after the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, which sparked a war in Gaza.

As legions of Indians defended their leader on social media, the Maldivian government reportedly suspended Shiuna and two other deputy ministers, identified as Malsha Shareef and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid. "These opinions are personal and do not represent the views of the government of Maldives," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

That did not appear to assuage the anger, however.

The hashtag "BoycottMaldives" has been trending on social media since the weekend, with even Bollywood movie stars and cricketers joining in and urging people to explore India’s islands and beaches instead. Some users posted screenshots of Maldives resort booking cancellations.

Popular actor Akshay Kumar slammed the Maldivian ministers’ "hateful and racist comments" on X on Sunday. "Surprised that they are doing this to a country that sends them the maximum number of tourists. We are good to our neighbors but why should we tolerate such unprovoked hate?" he wrote, saying he had visited the Maldives many times, but that Indians should "support our own tourism."

According to the Maldives’ Tourism Ministry website, India was the top market in terms of arrivals in 2023, with 209,198. That was just ahead of second place Russia and accounted for 11.1%, followed by China at 10%.

Ease My Trip, one of India’s biggest travel platforms, announced it was suspending all flight bookings to the Maldives "in solidarity with our nation." Separately, in a statement, the Confederation of All India Traders urged exporters and traders nationwide "to refrain from conducting business dealings" with the island state. The body represents about 80 million traders across India.

Rajat Malhotra, who runs his own travel agency in New Delhi, said on Tuesday that interest in the Maldives had evaporated. He said that normally, around this time, his company would be fielding calls about Maldives packages, but added, "We have not received any inquiry since the row began."

Doing damage control, the Maldives Association of Tourism Industry strongly condemned the "derogatory comments" directed toward Modi and people of India.

Former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who maintained an "India first" foreign policy but lost last year’s election to Muizzu, criticized the ministers’ "hateful language" and said that India has always been a "good friend."

To a question on Muizzu choosing China, not India, as his second overseas destination as president after Turkey, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, told reporters last week that it was up to the Maldivian government "to decide where they go and how they go about their international relations."

Leaving little question about his preference, Muizzu told the business forum that China is the Maldives’ "closest partner in development."

China and the Maldives signed a free trade agreement in 2017, but amid Male’s fluctuating geopolitical position, it has yet to ratify it. Muizzu told the forum that his government was committed to quickly implementing the deal.

He also pitched new projects, such as the reclamation of 10 million square meters of land from the sea for urban development.

But as Muizzu made his appeals for investment, analysts warned about the Maldives piling up more debt despite fading growth.

The China Development Bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Export-Import Bank of China collectively hold over 60% of Maldives’ sovereign debt, according to a report released last month by the Observer Research Foundation. And according to the Asian Development Bank, the Maldives’ economic growth is estimated at 7.1% for 2023, down from 13.9% in 2022.

"Given the economic situation, Muizzu’s administration would be wise to avoid taking on additional loans," Nilanthi Samaranayake, a visiting expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace told Nikkei Asia. "Sri Lanka’s experience in the past two years is a cautionary tale for Maldives," she added, referring to that island nation’s debt default and struggle to work out restructuring.

Some experts say that even if Muizzu prefers China, the India dispute has given his fledgling government a reality check.

The "huge backlash" in the Maldives against the ministers’ comments "shows that these ministers had violated diplomatic courtesy," said Raj Kumar Sharma, a senior research fellow at NatStrat, an independent think tank working on India’s national security and foreign policy.

He suggested that the action taken against the ministers was revealing. The Maldivian government "may be trying to reinvent the wheel of their diplomacy by prioritizing China," he said, "but they cannot overcome their geography."

China’s Xi Says Supports Maldives In Protecting ‘Sovereignty’: State Media (Agence France-Presse)

Agence France-Presse [1/10/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 304K, Neutral]
Chinese President Xi Jinping told Maldivian counterpart Mohamed Muizzu that he supported the strategically located archipelago in protecting its "sovereignty", state media reported, after the two countries signed a number of infrastructure and other agreements.

Muizzu was elected in September as a proxy for a pro-China predecessor jailed on corruption charges, vowing to cultivate "strong ties" with Beijing.

This week he embarked on his trip to China, his first state visit since taking office, and met with Xi on Wednesday, Beijing’s state media reported.

"Under the new circumstances, China-Maldives relations face a historic opportunity to build on past achievements and forge ahead," Xi told Muizzu, according to its state-run Xinhua news agency.

Xi "stressed that China respects and supports the Maldives in exploring a development path suited to its national conditions", it added, and "supports the Maldives firmly in safeguarding its national sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national dignity".

Muizzu, in response, thanked Xi for "China’s significant role in the Maldives’ economic success" and Beijing’s role in "infrastructure development of the Maldives", according to a readout from his office.

Muizzu’s party was an eager recipient of financial largesse from China’s Belt and Road infrastructure programme -- a central pillar of Xi’s bid to expand China’s clout overseas.

His mentor, former president Abdulla Yameen, borrowed heavily from China for construction projects and spurned India.

The two countries on Wednesday signed several agreements, including on climate, agriculture, and infrastructure, Muizzu’s office said.

Primarily known as one of the most expensive holiday destinations in South Asia, with pristine white beaches and secluded resorts, the Maldives has also become a geopolitical hotspot.

Global east-west shipping lanes pass the nation’s chain of 1,192 tiny coral islands, stretching around 800 kilometres (500 miles) across the equator.

Muizzu was elected promising to remove a unit of Indian security personnel, deployed to operate three aircraft gifted to the Maldives to patrol its vast maritime territory.

Last month he said he had secured their withdrawal, but did not give any timeframe.

He has denied seeking to redraw the regional balance by bringing in Chinese forces instead.

Nepal’s spiritual leader known as ‘Buddha Boy’ arrested on charges of rape and kidnapping (AP)

AP [1/10/2024 9:07 AM, Binaj Gurubacharya, 11975K, Negative]
A controversial Nepalese spiritual leader known as “Buddha Boy” was arrested on charges of sexually assaulting a minor and involvement in the disappearance of at least four of his followers from his camps, police said Wednesday.

Ram Bahadur Bamjan is believed by many Nepalese to be the reincarnation of Siddhartha Gautama, who was born in southwestern Nepal some 2,600 years ago and became revered as Buddha. Buddhist scholars have been skeptical of Bamjan’s claims.

Bamjan was arrested late Tuesday from his house in a suburb of Kathmandu, the country’s capital, according to Nabaraj Adhikari of the Central Investigation Bureau.

Police brought him before the media in handcuffs on Wednesday and said that he had tried to flee by jumping two floors from a window when the officers arrived but was unsuccessful and was taken into custody.

Officials also displayed a stack of Nepalese banknotes they said was equivalent to $227,000 and other foreign currencies amounting to $23,000 seized from the house at the time of the arrest.

Bamjan is expected to be taken to a court in southern Nepal, where the alleged crimes occurred, to appear before a judge there.

Several dozen of his followers gathered later Wednesday outside the Central Investigation Bureau offices in Katmandu where Bamjan was being held but were pushed back by riot police.

Bamjan, also known as Buddha Boy, became famous in southern Nepal in 2005, when many believed he was able to meditate without moving for months while sitting beneath a tree with no food or water. He has remained popular despite accusations of sexually and physically assaulting his followers.

His popularity has since declined but he still maintains camps in southern Nepal where thousands of his followers come to live and worship him or to visit.

Buddhism, founded in India around 500 B.C., is considered the world’s fourth-largest religious tradition after Christianity, Islam and Hinduism.

Nepal police arrest ‘Buddha boy’ over allegations of rape, sexual abuse (Reuters)

Reuters [1/10/2024 6:36 AM, Gopal Sharma, 5239K, Negative]
A Nepali man who thousands believed was a reincarnation of the Buddha and who drew international attention as a teenager has been arrested over allegations of rape and sexual abuse, police said on Wednesday.

The Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) of Nepal police said they arrested Ram Bahadur Bomjon, 33, on Tuesday from a house on the outskirts of Kathmandu where he had been hiding.

"Our team arrested him while he was trying to escape by jumping from the window of the house," CIB said in a statement.

As a teenager, Bomjon became known as "Buddha boy" and he made international headlines in 2005 after followers said he could meditate motionless without any water, food or sleep for several days.

He drew more than 100,000 people to the dense forests of south-eastern Nepal to see him sitting cross-legged beneath a tree.

Bomjon could not be reached for comment in police custody and it was not clear if he had a lawyer yet.

CIB spokesperson Nawaraj Adhikari said Bomjon would be sent to Sarlahi district court which had issued an arrest warrant for him.

Central Asia

Iran attack signals growing Central Asian role in ISKP’s external ops (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [1/10/2024 4:14 PM, Lucas Webber and Peter Smith, 57.6K, Negative]
On January 3, the Islamic State carried out a double suicide bombing that killed 91 people and wounded at least 102 others during a ceremony outside the tomb of Major General Qassem Soleimani. U.S. officials then stated that communication intercepts provided “clear cut and indisputable” evidence that Islamic State - Khurasan Province, or ISKP, carried out the attack. Shortly after the bombing, Iran’s Intelligence Ministry revealed that one of the attackers was a Tajik national while the other is yet to be identified.

Taliban-linked media outlet Almirsad seemingly scooped these reports earlier on Friday, claiming it had information allegedly confirming the second attacker was also Tajik. On its X account, Almirsad deflected blame while discussing ISKP’s interest in recruiting Tajiks for suicide attacks. They report arresting Tajik citizens planning attacks inside the country but say that their enlistment and training with ISKP all took place outside of Afghanistan. Almirsad accused Tajikistan of becoming “a new hub for [ISKP] production,” adding that this “poses a significant threat to the security and stability of the region and the world” and “many of its citizens have been involved in attacks in Afghanistan, Iran, and [elsewhere].”

The fact that another Tajik militant was involved in ISKP’s latest major external attack is indicative of the branch’s increasingly ambitious geographical vision and success in attracting fighters from Afghanistan’s northern neighbours. Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, the Taliban’s appointed defense minister, confirmed this during a press conference in Kabul on New Year’s Eve, announcing that security forces had killed dozens of Tajik and Pakistani militants over the course of 2023. The Taliban and Almirsad have been aggressive in blaming Dushanbe and Islamabad for Afghanistan’s domestic security problems.

Since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021, ISKP has expanded its messaging and operational scope under an interlinked strategy of regionalization and internationalization with Central Asia being a key focus. The branch has developed its own in-house propaganda apparatus under Al-Azaim Foundation for Media Production, which now includes Tajik and Uzbek wings to appeal to Central Asians and grow its support base, recruit, and fundraise, as well as threaten and incite attacks in the region and beyond.

The Kerman attack is not the first time ISKP tapped its Central Asian jihadist contingent to commit acts of violence outside of its local Afghanistan-Pakistan zone of operations or even against Iran itself. ISKP has targeted the Islamic Republic and sites of significance to Shia Muslims in the past. Two attacks, less than a year apart, took aim at the Shah Cheragh shrine in Shiraz.

In August, a gunman entered the Shah Cheragh shrine and fatally shot one parishioner and injured three others. Iran credited the assault to ISKP, it was celebrated by Al-Azaim Farsi, and reports claimed that 10 people, all foreign nationals, had been arrested in relation to the attack. An earlier attack occurred in October 2022 that claimed the lives of 13 people and injured 40 others. The shooters in both incidents were ISKP-linked and from Tajikistan. Notably, in April 2022, a 21-year-old Uzbek national killed an Iranian cleric at the Imam Reza shrine in the city of Mashhad — ISKP did not claim the attack, but praised the perpetrator.

ISKP’s external networks have been active in Central Asia recently as well. Kyrgyzstan’s security services arrested two alleged ISKP members who were planning to detonate improvised explosive devices in the central square in Jalal-Abad and launch an armed attack on a church in the city during New Year celebrations. Kyrgyz authorities said the suspects were recruited on the internet and investigators discovered records of communication with ISKP’s emissaries directing the plot, attack plans, bomb-making instructions, and home-made videos pledging allegiance to the Islamic State.

In 2022, ISKP fired rockets from Afghanistan toward Uzbekistan in April and Tajikistan in May, while a group of 20 IS militants crossed from Afghanistan into Tajikistan engaged in a firefight with security personnel near the Uzbek border. The recent foiled plot in Kyrgyzstan seems to be the first externally directed ISKP terrorist operation in Central Asia.

Elsewhere in the region, Central Asian ISKP members have been active as well. In July 2022, Turkish police arrested Shamil Hukumatov, a Tajik national, in the country using a fake passport made in Kyrgyzstan, and high ranking ISKP operative involved in fundraising, recruitment and, according to authorities, planning attacks against Tajikistan’s government. In July 2023, Turkish security forces took down an alleged ISKP-linked network led by a Tajik plotting violence against churches and the Swedish and Dutch consulates. In August 2022, Russian authorities alleged that a Kyrgyz national and an Uzbek were involved in a bombing plot targeting India.

Moreover, ISKP has been expanding its external operational networks into Europe. A coordinated series of arrests in Austria and Germany starting on December 22 and continuing for days was purposed to disrupt a transnational “Islamist network,” involving Tajiks and Uzbeks, that was suspected of conducting attacks on behalf of ISKP. These actions were taken after foreign intelligence services tipped said governments off about a network spanning Austria and Germany planning to commit violence either on Christmas or New Year’s Eve in Vienna and Cologne.

Indeed, ISKP has mobilized and inspired Central Asians in Europe. Nine people were arrested in Germany and The Netherlands in July after founding a domestic terrorist group. Six of the men are citizens of Tajikistan, while the others came from Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. Prior to this, in 2020, four Tajik nationals, reported to be in contact with Islamic State officials in Afghanistan and Syria, were arrested for an alleged plot to attack U.S. and NATO military bases in Germany. In Poland, one alleged Tajik member of the Islamic State who entered the country from Belarus was among a group of people it deported in June.

ISKP has proven adept at appealing to radicalized people from Central Asia and mobilizing them into action against its perceived enemies, both inside Afghanistan and abroad. The Kerman attack and recently foiled plots in Europe and Kyrgyzstan highlights this growing trend. ISKP recognizes this and will continue increasing efforts to build support within Central Asia and will keep pushing to direct or incite extremist elements in the region and in diaspora communities in the West and beyond.

Kyrgyz Border-Deal Activists’ Trial Postponed After Defendant Hospitalized (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [1/10/2024 7:54 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
The Birinchi Mai district court in Bishkek postponed to an unspecified later date the trial of 27 Kyrgyz activists, politicians, and journalists who protested against a 2022 Kyrgyz-Uzbek border delimitation deal, after one of the defendants, Bektur Asanov, was hospitalized on January 10, lawyer Erkin Bulekbaev told RFE/RL. The activists, whose trial started in June last year, were arrested in October 2022 after they protested the controversial Kyrgyz-Uzbek border demarcation deal which saw Kyrgyzstan in November 2022 hand over the territory of the Kempir-Abad water reservoir to Uzbekistan.

Tajikistan looks to China, Russia for internet services and security (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [1/10/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Following up on a recent pledge to drastically improve internet services, Tajikistan’s communications regulator has begun working with several international companies to overhaul core infrastructure.

The most notable conversation is happening with China’s Huawei. In the first half of December, the Tajik government and the Chinese company’s local representative office, Huawei Technologies Tajikistan, signed a memorandum of cooperation that will see the latter take the lead in a project to upgrade or install 7,600 base stations envisioned as the backbone of a future 5G network.

The agreement also provides for the training of Tajik technicians.

This initiative — part of the State Communications Service’s work implementing the government’s renewal and development of mobile communications 2024-2028 agenda — comes not a moment too soon.

The telecoms regular, which is run by a relative by marriage of President Emomali Rahmon, admitted in November that a staggering 95 percent of the country’s territory is covered by only outdated 2G mobile connections, which is all but useless for most modern online needs.

Tajikistan’s imminent full-blown reliance on Huawei may cause unease in some Western capitals, however. The United States has been especially hostile toward the Chinese tech giant, which it has accused of enabling the surveillance agenda of the Chinese security apparatus.

Former President Donald Trump’s administration in 2019 imposed sanctions that complicated the company’s access Western chip-making technology. Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, has pursued similar policies.

Lower-level cooperation agreements have also been inked between Tajikistan and Russian telecommunications companies. The two companies in question, Cifra and Piter IX, will provide training and consultancy services on how to manage the still-to-be-created 4G and 5G networks.

As the result of yet another in the flurry of memorandum of cooperation agreements signed in December, Kazakh company National Information Technologies is poised to team up with Tajikistan to put together its electronic government systems. Kazakhstan is arguably a standout in Central Asia for its success in rolling out e-government services — and it is this that Tajikistan may be seeking to emulate.

The urge among Tajikistan’s population to fully enter the digital urge has been impeded to a considerable degree by the paranoia of the censorship-happy security services. So even as new technology is adopted, the National Committee for State Security, or GKNB, has reached out to its Russian peers to help counter “the improper use of the internet and information and communication technologies.”

The governments of Russia and Tajikistan signed an agreement in June on cooperating to ensure “international information security.” The agreement was ratified by the Tajik parliament in December.

Commenting on this development earlier this month, Mahmad Melikzoda, deputy head of the GKNB, said the agreement with Russia would serve to "coordinate countermeasures against threats to international information security, prevent ICT-related crimes, and develop joint strategies to bolster information security.”

Officials like Melikzoda typically cite terrorism and religious extremism as leading concerns, but both censorship and surveillance are deployed by his agency to harass a far broader category of individuals, including government critics and journalists.

Transport Route Linking China’s Shenzhen With Uzbek Capital Launched (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [1/10/2024 9:42 AM, Staff, 223K, Positive]
The World Road Transport Organization (IRU) said the first Chinese TIR truck loaded with electronic products departed from China’s southern city of Shenzhen to reach its final destination, the capital of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, via a new 6,500-kilometer transportation corridor that runs through Kyrgyzstan. According to the IRU, the new route, a sign of China’s increasing cooperation with Central Asia, allows trucks to reach Tashkent from Shenzhen in seven days instead of 20 by other routes under the TIR customs convention, which simplifies the bureaucracy of international road transport. In July 2023, China’s Zhengzhou Hongyi Transportation company launched a similar TIR truck route connecting Shenzhen with Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Indo-Pacific

Chinese PLA-linked vessels map the Indian Ocean for submarine warfare (Washington Post)

Washington Post [1/10/2024 12:53 PM, Cate Cadell, 6.9M, Neutral]
Chinese research vessels with ties to the People’s Liberation Army are conducting sweeping surveys of the undersea floor in the Indian Ocean, collecting data that could be crucial in deploying submarines in a region that is a critical energy supply line for Beijing in the event of a war with Taiwan.

A new analysis of hundreds of thousands of hours of shipping data since 2020 by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that the Indian Ocean is fast becoming one of the biggest domains for Chinese oceanic surveys, which are ostensibly civilian in nature but tied to the PLA and Beijing’s military-civil fusion program — a national strategic plan to advance China’s military by acquiring technology and research from civilian groups.

The types of ocean surveys carried out by the vessels have research applications for energy resources and marine environments, but the data collected can also be used for military purposes, analysts say, including how to maneuver and obscure submarines during conflict.

The CSIS report found that of the 13 vessels undertaking the bulk of survey and research activity in the Indian Ocean since 2020, all have links to China’s military — including organizational ties to the PLA — and have displayed suspicious behavior including docking at Chinese military ports or temporarily turning off tracking devices.

“The Indian Ocean is critical to China’s strategic and economic interests, as well as its geopolitical rivalry with India,” said Matthew Funaiole, a senior fellow at CSIS who worked on the report. “Beijing is serious about fielding a blue-water navy, one that will be active in the Indian Ocean, and blurring the lines between its research ecosystem and its national security apparatus will help it get there.”

China maintains the world’s largest fleet of civilian research vessels, and the CSIS report said that at least 80 percent of 64 such vessels operating globally since 2020 have displayed “warning indicators” that their work is tied to military objectives. Over half of those suspect vessels operated in the South China Sea, but their growing presence in the Indian Ocean has also stoked tensions.

Last week, Sri Lanka declared a moratorium on Chinese research vessels entering its waters under what analysts say was intense pressure from India. New Delhi has aired concerns that the research vessels — some of which have previously docked in Sri Lanka — are being used to monitor waters and installments in India’s sphere of influence. Sri Lanka, which took on nearly $12 billion in Chinese loans between 2000 and 2020, has struggled to balance the competing demands of Beijing and New Delhi, analysts say.

“India has made its displeasure known to Sri Lanka; some of these vessels are too close to Indian territory and Indian interests for comfort,” said Abhijit Singh, a former Indian naval officer and senior fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation. “Crudely put, this is the real fear, that China is going to work on its combat capability by studying the environment in these waters.”

The Chinese Embassy in India did not respond to a request for comment.

With the backdrop of China’s growing military presence, the Biden administration has sought to tighten security ties with India in recent years, including bolstering activity in the Quad — a group including India, Japan, Australia and the United States that focuses on security and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

More recently, the White House has sought to show its ties with New Delhi remain strong, despite a spat over the alleged attempted assassination of a Sikh separatist by an Indian government employee on U.S. soil. Last month, deputy U.S. national security adviser Jon Finer led a delegation to India to fortify partnerships in technology.

Much of the attention on China’s growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific has focused on its massive fleet of naval ships and increasingly assertive aircraft maneuvers near Taiwan. However, beneath the oceans, Beijing is also working to expand a less-visible network of submarine defense systems and ocean monitoring equipment that would be critical in supporting its naval defenses and protecting supply routes in the event of war.

The Indian Ocean is a critical waterway for Beijing’s interests, and in recent years it has built or expanded facilities from Djibouti to Pakistan. While China has made efforts to supplement its ocean supply line with overland alternatives in recent years, a substantial amount of its crude oil and natural gas supplies still need to travel from Africa and the Middle East through the Indian Ocean, including the chokepoint of the Malacca Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea between Indonesia and Malaysia.

“Some call that the underbelly of China’s strategic interests, simply because if a war in Taiwan erupts, then given that the Indian Ocean is located quite a distance from the Chinese shores it’s easy to disrupt the Chinese energy security supply in the Indian Ocean, and then all war-making ability might grind to a stop,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

China’s fleet of submarines is growing fast. Last year, in an annual report on China’s military power, the Pentagon said Beijing now has about 60 submarines, including 12 that are nuclear-powered, and projects that the total number of Chinese submarines will rise to 80 by 2035. Some of these ships have already made forays into the Indian Ocean.

Last year, the United States, Britain and Australia unveiled plans to equip Canberra with its own nuclear-powered submarines as part of a landmark agreement called AUKUS, designed to counter China’s growing presence in the region.

“If you are serious about wanting to conduct submarine operations in the Indian Ocean you have to have a fairly good knowledge of not only the seafloor, but the currents, the layers of water, the salinity … which is all key to not being seen when you’re in a submarine,” said David Brewster, senior research fellow with the National Security College at the Australian National University.

China is not alone in deploying ocean research vessels, but the opaque ties among its military, civilian and academic groups have raised suspicions that the data collected in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere globally could have dual-use applications. In some cases, the link between the missions and China’s national security goals is made explicit.

In 2020, Chinese research survey vessel Xiang Yang Hong 06 traveled more than 6,000 miles over 110 days, surveying vast swaths of the Indian Ocean. During that time it deployed underwater gliders and floats — devices to capture complex data about the marine environment — as part of a national project called “Two Oceans One Sea,” which, according to descriptions posted by Chinese state research groups, is designed to advance strategic needs including “security and military activities.”

In October 2023, another research vessel, Shiyan 06, conducted a four-month mission in the eastern Indian Ocean. The vessel was operated by the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, an institute that has provided technical support to Beijing’s military expansion in the South China Sea.

Analysts say the behavior of the ships in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere gives insight into their affiliation with military groups. “Certain indicators can fill gaps in our knowledge. If a research vessel is owned and operated by a state-affiliated group with close ties to the Chinese military, and that vessel makes regular port calls at naval facilities, it’s a red flag,” said CSIS’s Funaiole. “If a vessel regularly goes dark before entering another country’s exclusive economic zone, it’s another red flag.”

The Pentagon has taken note of the growing PLA navy presence in the Indian Ocean, including its expanded submarine activities. “The PLAN has also conducted submarine deployments to the Indian Ocean, demonstrating its increasing familiarity in that region and underscoring the [People’s Republic of China’s] interest in protecting [sea lines of communication] beyond the South China Sea,” it said in its 2023 military report on China.

Twitter

Afghanistan

Suhail Shaheen
@suhailshaheen1
[1/10/2024 2:23 PM, 721.1K followers, 12 retweets, 64 likes]
1/2 It was a matter of joy for me to see the hand-made carpets of my country, Afghanistan and organic dry fruits and saffrons at Afghanistan’s pavilion in Doha Expo. Afghanistan is steadily making its way in the world after decades of war in the country.

Suhail Shaheen
@suhailshaheen1
[1/10/2024 2:23 PM, 721.1K followers, 7 retweets, 34 likes]
2/2 Looking forward to seeing Afghanistan granary of the region once more.

Nilofar Ayoubi
@NilofarAyoubi
[1/10/2024 3:31 PM, 62.7K followers, 23 retweets, 58 likes]
Despite the misleading reports by Taliban sympathizers and even the UN envoy at the security council last month, the reality is that people in Afghanistan are enduring immense suffering under the Taliban regime. This video serves as undeniable evidence that civilians in Afghanistan are facing dire circumstances and are desperate to escape the country by any means necessary. People climbing one another to get passports.

Nilofar Ayoubi
@NilofarAyoubi
[1/10/2024 12:01 PM, 62.7K followers, 32 retweets, 59 likes]
The Taliban’s destructive actions continue as they targeted the libraries in Kabul, seizing numerous books on various subjects such as history, philosophy, art, theology, and politics. They also forced the publishers to sign an agreement promising not to distribute any "unwanted" books. This act is not only a grave violation of historical and cultural heritage but also has long-term consequences that need to be thoroughly investigated by the media.

Nilofar Ayoubi
@NilofarAyoubi
[1/10/2024 7:40 AM, 62.7K followers, 13 retweets, 35 likes]
According to local reports, Nasser Maqsoudi, the director of Maqsoodi publishing house, was recently abducted and assaulted in the Pulsarukh area of Kabul. It is disheartening to see that the Taliban has resorted to a pattern of suppressing, harming, and kidnapping prominent individuals.

Pakistan

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/10/2024 4:11 PM, 41.5K followers, 11 retweets, 36 likes]
Pakistan’s election:
- looks, for now, like it will be held on Feb 8
- won’t be free or fair, given the amount of pre-poll manipulation that has already taken place, and the lack of a level playing field
- the question now is whether there will be overt rigging on election day

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/10/2024 12:29 PM, 41.5K followers, 9 retweets, 39 likes]
Today was the last day for appeals against the Pakistan Election Commission’s decisions regarding candidacy for elections. No surprises: Imran Khan’s rejection as a candidate was upheld; he can’t run for election. Just in time, Nawaz Sharif, hopeful for a 4th term as PM, can.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/10/2024 12:33 PM, 41.5K followers, 2 likes]
The preliminary list of candidates for election will be posted tomorrow.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/10/2024 12:13 PM, 41.5K followers, 1 retweet, 8 likes]
Quite something: Pakistan’s Supreme Court upholds Musharraf’s death sentence in treason case. Musharraf was sentenced to death by a special court in 2019; the judgment was overturned by the Lahore High Court in 2020. He died of natural causes last year.

Mary Lawlor UN Special Rapporteur HRDs
@MaryLawlorhrds
[1/10/2024 9:08 AM, 53K followers, 1K retweets, 1.8K likes]
Today I met WHRDs @SammiBaluch & @MahrangBaloch_ to discuss the ongoing protests against enforced disappearances in Balochistan, #Pakistan. The reports of police harassment are v. concerning. Spurious criminal complaints against peaceful protestors should be dropped @PakUN_Geneva

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[1/10/2024 5:55 AM, 8.3M followers, 1K retweets, 8.3K likes]
PTI must thank the lawyer of ECP who wrongly challenged the jurisdiction of Peshawar High Court and lost the case. This verdict of PHC actually gave credibility to February 8th election. https://khybernews.tv/peshawar-high-court-restores-pti-election-symbol-bat/

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[1/10/2024 3:54 AM, 8.3M followers, 463 retweets, 2.7K likes]
I was first banned in 2007 by Gen Pervez Musharraf. He declared me anti-state. Today Supreme Court endorsed the verdict of Justice Waqar Seth against him in hi treason case. He is not alive but verdict against him is still alive. Somebody must learn lesson

India

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/10/2024 11:10 AM, 94.4M followers, 2.4K retweets, 11K likes]
Attended the Global FinTech Forum at GIFT city today. It was a great convergence of brilliant minds in finance & technology, discussing innovative solutions for the digital economy. It is truly exciting to see how FinTech is reshaping our world.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/10/2024 7:35 AM, 94.4M followers, 3.1K retweets, 11K likes]
The world looks at India as:
An important pillar of stability.
A friend who can be trusted.
A partner who believes in people-centric development.
A voice that believes in global good.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/10/2024 7:33 AM, 94.4M followers, 3.2K retweets, 16K likes]
Some glimpses from today’s @VibrantGujarat Summit - a great forum to share perspectives on economic growth, reforms and strengthen our development journey.

NSB

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/10/2024 9:40 AM, 635.1K followers, 22 retweets, 72 likes]
A three-member delegation from the Election Commission of India saw citizens of #Bangladesh exercising their electoral rights at polling stations peacefully. "We have visited several polling stations and have witnessed the #BangladeshPolls first hand" https://link.albd.org/xm6ah

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/10/2024 9:22 AM, 635.1K followers, 31 retweets, 101 likes]
Around million joined the rally addressed by #SheikhHasina marking the historic #homecoming day of #Bangabandhu #SheikhMujiburRahman. A wave of celebration and festivity ran high among the supporters and leaders as the rally coincides with #AwamiLeague’s historic victory for a record fifth term in January 7 polls.
Hundreds of thousands of supporters, carrying flags, filled the historic venue from where the founding father gave March 7 speech.
Unlike sordid turnout at #BNP rallies, this largest place for rally in the capital was brimming with elated supporters and activists who vowed to stand with their leader and serve the nation, in return to the overwhelming public mandate.
#Bangladesh #BDPolitics #BDpoliticalNews #AwamiLeagueRally #BangladeshPolls #BangladeshElections #BangladeshElections2024

Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP
@bdbnp78
[1/10/2024 9:08 AM, 46.9K followers, 61 retweets, 217 likes]
Two days after the sham elections, @albd1971 government demolished a 30-year-old office of @bdbnp78 in Dhaka.

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[1/10/2024 7:00 AM, 261.4K followers, 16 retweets, 83 likes]
Before Bhutan, in a two-way contest between the People’s Democratic Party and the Tendrel Party, elected the former on Tuesday, a primary round of voting in November eliminated the ruling party and two other parties. Contrast that with India where, in the absence of an electoral threshold to enter Parliament or state assemblies, some 2,300 parties entered the fray in the last general elections. Family-run parties have proliferated across India.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/10/2024 12:49 PM, 106K followers, 75 retweets, 125 likes]
The President and First Lady of China host state banquet in honour of President Dr Muizzu and First Lady Sajidha Mohamed https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29601

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/10/2024 7:33 AM, 106K followers, 92 retweets, 113 likes]
The Maldives and China hold official talks https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29599

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/10/2024 7:16 PM, 106K followers, 136 retweets, 175 likes]
The President of China, H.E. Xi Jinping and First Lady Madam Peng Liyuan hosted a state banquet in honour of H.E. President Dr @MMuizzu and H.E. First Lady Sajidha Mohamed this evening.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/10/2024 6:30 AM, 106K followers, 189 retweets, 246 likes]
20 key agreements were signed today between the Government of the Maldives and the Government of China this afternoon. H.E. President Dr @Mmuizzu and President Xi Jinping witnessed today’s signing ceremony, held at the Great Hall of People in Beijing.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/10/2024 6:28 AM, 106K followers, 121 retweets, 139 likes]
The official talks between the Republic of Maldives and the People’s Republic of China led by H.E. President Dr @MMuizzu and President Xi Jinping respectively, took place at the East Hall of Great Hall of People in Beijing.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/10/2024 4:56 AM, 106K followers, 233 retweets, 300 likes]
The President of China, H.E. Xi Jinping and First Lady Madam Peng Liyuan officially welcome H.E. President Dr @MMuizzu and H.E. First Lady Sajidha Mohamed, who are on a State Visit to China, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping.

Moosa Zameer
@MoosaZameer
[1/10/2024 10:32 AM, 12.2K followers, 101 retweets, 166 likes]
President Dr @MMuizzu’s state visit to China is all about delivering for the #Maldivian people! We exchanged 20 key agreements today, marking a significant step in Maldives-China relations. These agreements cover a wide range of areas, such as:
- disaster risk reduction
- blue economy and digital economy
- green and low-carbon development
- Belt and Road Initiative
- human resource development
- economic policy
- agricultural cooperation

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/10/2024 10:02 AM, 256.1K followers, 5 retweets, 31 likes]
Ambassador of Pakistan to Nepal H. E. Mr. Abrar H Hashmi called on Foreign Secretary Ms. Sewa Lamsal at her office today. On the occasion, discussions were held on various matters on Nepal-Pakistan relations.

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[1/10/2024 7:00 AM, 256.1K followers, 5 retweets, 42 likes]
H.E. Mr. Chen Song, Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China paid a courtesy call on Foreign Secretary Ms. Sewa Lamsal today. Various matters of Nepal-China relations were discussed on the occasion. @sewa_lamsal @amritrai555

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[1/10/2024 2:11 PM, 354.6K followers, 3 retweets, 29 likes]
Of the 25 analyst alumni from our days at Min of Econ Reform, 13 currently in #SriLanka joined me to dinner at RCGC. So happy to see them progressing; central, inv. and comm bankers to big data experts to top pharma scientists to public policy guys to entrepreneurs and academics!

Central Asia

Steve Swerdlow
@steveswerdlow
[1/10/2024 5:23 PM, 15.3K followers, 23 retweets, 21 likes]
URGENT: Extremely troubled by detention today of Tajik rights defender & my colleague #AsliddinSherzamonov by Polish border guards in Terespol & risk of his deportation to Belarus. If deported, Sherzamonov will absolutely face torture & politically-imprisonment in Tajikistan.

Uzbekistan MFA
@uzbekmfa
[1/10/2024 1:59 PM, 6.7K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
On January 10, 2024, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan Muzaffar Madrakhimov met with the @UNESCO Representative to Uzbekistan @NoshadiSara. https://mfa.u/35169

Bakhtiyor Saidov
@FM_Saidov
[1/10/2024 1:48 PM, 2.8K followers, 2 retweets, 3 likes]
Received the Ambassador of #Russia H.E. Oleg Malginov (@russiauz) today @uzbekmfa. Our discussion covered several topics of the expanding agenda of #Uzbekistan-#Russia strategic partnership. We also reviewed the outcomes of 2023 and upcoming engagements scheduled for 2024 at various levels.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[1/10/2024 1:05 PM, 22.3K followers, 2 retweets, 6 likes]
Uzbekistan: $1.4 million worth of modern energy sector management equipment from @USAID @USAIDCtrAsia, which should enhance Central Asia’s ability to manage and monitor electricity flows to ensure the stability of the power grid. @usembtashkent @UsAmbUzbekistan https://uz.usembassy.gov/usaid-energy-equipment-handover/

{End of Report}

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