epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Wednesday, January 10, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Taliban detains dozens of women in Afghanistan for breaking hijab rules with "modeling" (CBS News)
CBS News [1/9/2024 12:51 PM, Staff, 76K, Negative]
Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers have rounded up dozens of women in an apparent crackdown on perceived violations of the group’s strict dress code. Dozens of women and girls were detained briefly last week in Kabul, a senior Taliban spokesperson told CBS News on Monday, confirming what appeared to be a new tactic in the group’s efforts to curb women’s rights.

The arrests by the Taliban’s morality police occurred over several days and first came to light via videos and photos posted on social media. The Taliban confirmed the arrests after photos and video clips showed women being loaded onto the back of police pickup trucks in the capital city.

A spokesperson for the Taliban’s Vice and Virtue Ministry, which enforces its harsh interpretation of Islam on both men and women, told CBS News the women were all either released on bail after several hours, or turned over to judicial authorities for further investigation. It was not clear how many people remained in custody after the mass arrests.

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban regime’s chief spokesperson, confirmed the arrests to CBS News on Monday, saying "a group of women who were involved in modeling to promote clothes were detained, advised in front of their family members, and released within hours. No woman was subject to imprisonment during this process."

In an interview with Afghan outlet TOLO News, which was later removed from the social media platform X, Mujahid, without providing evidence, said the women had received instruction from outside the country to promote violations of the group’s rules requiring women and girls to wear the hijab, or headscarf, to cover their hair.

In a video published by the Afghanistan International news outlet, a young girl is seen in tears speaking about the Taliban detaining her sister as they both returned from their religious school in Kabul.

"The Taliban took my sister. We wore hijab and were holding the Quran in our hands. How do I explain this to my father?" the girl can be heard saying in the video, which was not independently verified by CBS News.

There were more arrests reported Monday. CBS News spoke with a sibling of a young woman whom they said was detained Monday morning and remained in Taliban custody late on Tuesday.

The person said that after several hours of searching, the family found the woman at a local police station late Tuesday evening, where Taliban officials demanded money, along with her passport and other documentation, as a penalty and "to guarantee that she will not violate the dress code in the future."

The family member said the authorities told the family they would "take her biometrics and photos, and if she violates the dress code in the future, she will be imprisoned for a longer period."

The United Nations special envoy for Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, called for the immediate release of all the women who were detained.

"Recent arrests of women in Kabul Afghanistan for ‘bad hijab’, confirmed by the Taliban, regrettably signified further restrictions on women’s freedom of expression and undermines other rights," Bennett said in a social media post. "They should all be released immediately and without conditions."

Amid the criticism and media coverage, the Taliban’s Ministry of Vice and Virtue issued a statement on suggesting the women and girls had been picked up for begging on Kabul’s streets and noting that they would be released after their biometrics were taken, though no supporting evidence was provided to back the new explanation for the detentions.

Since retaking control of Afghanistan after the U.S. military withdrawal in August 2021, the Taliban has reintroduced many draconian rules limiting the public lives of women and girls in the country.

Girls are not permitted to attend school after the age of 12 and women are barred from universities. They’re also banned from visiting parks, participating in sports, working in many sectors — including for international non-profit organizations — forbidden from running beauty salons or visiting public baths, and even from traveling outside their homes without a male chaperon.

"They have expedited their war against women," Fawzia Koofi, a former female member of Afghanistan’s parliament, said in a social media post in reaction to the recent arrests. "On a daily basis, their morality police arrests tens of women from the streets of Kabul. To the Taliban, every woman in Afghanistan is guilty to be proven innocent."

Torek Farhadi, a veteran political analyst on the region, told CBS News the Taliban’s rigid enforcement of its rules set Afghanistan apart from even other conservative Islamic ruled nations.

"The Taliban’s interpretation of Islamic sharia [law] is again off the mark from what is in practice in other Islamic countries, just as is their decision on girls’ education, barring them from going to school," he said, adding: "Now that they have the guns, they can impose their views on society."

When the Taliban first ruled over Afghanistan between 1994 and the 2001 U.S.-led military invasion, the group routinely arrested men and boys for shaving or trimming their beards, or for wearing jeans or other Western garments, and jailed them for days.

Analysts including Farhadi told CBS News that the Taliban’s direct law enforcement intervention against women for alleged dress code violations, rather than punishing male relatives or guardians, appeared to be a new tactic and an escalation of the crackdown on women’s rights.
Afghan girls detained and lashed by Taliban for violating hijab rules (The Guardian)
The Guardian [1/10/2024 1:30 AM, Zahal Ahad, 12.5M, Negative]
Girls as young as 16 have been arrested across the Afghan capital, Kabul, in the past week for violating the Taliban’s hijab rules.

The girls – who were detained in shopping centres, classes and street markets – were accused of “spreading and encouraging others to wear a bad hijab” and wearing makeup.

Since taking power in Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban have further restricted women’s access to education, employment and public spaces. In May 2022, they decreed that women should cover themselves from head to toe, revealing only their eyes.

Lale*, 16, said she was arrested by the Taliban along with a number of other girls at her English language class and pulled into a police truck. She said girls who confronted the men and refused to go were beaten, while she was lashed on her feet and legs when trying to reason with them. Her father was later badly beaten for “raising immoral girls”.

“My attire was modest and even included a face mask – a precaution I had adopted since the Taliban takeover,” said Lale. “But they beat me anyway, insisting that my outfit was improper.”

Lale, who was detained for two days and nights, said the Taliban repeatedly cursed them as infidels, for studying English and for aspiring to go abroad.

She was released after community elders intervened and she signed a document pledging not to leave her home without the mandatory head-covering. She has also been banned from attending her English classes.

“I was barred from school when the Taliban took over in 2021, and now I cannot even go to my private classes,” she said. “I can no longer imagine anything for my future other than staying home and getting married.

“I saw how badly my father was beaten because I went to the [English] course. When I saw his photos after returning home, I was so scared that I would lose him. I don’t have the motivation to study after this. I don’t want this experience again.”

Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesperson, claimed in a voice message to the Guardian that families of the detained women had raised concerns with the Ministry for Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice that their daughters were supported by foreign groups to promote “bad hijab”.

“As a result, they were taken to police stations and freed on bail,” he said, adding that such arrests were “not usual practice”.

The detentions happened less than a week after the UN security council requested a special envoy to engage with the Taliban, particularly over gender and women’s rights. The Taliban rejected this proposal, however, claiming it would complicate the situation by imposing external solutions.

Fereshta Abbasi, a researcher at the New York-based organisation Human Rights Watch, said: “The arrests of women in Afghanistan are a further crackdown on the basic rights of women and can be intimidating and put more pressure even on women who are still working in the health, primary education and nutrition sectors, and they would not appear in public as they used to.”

Videos and photographs shared with the Guardian by another female Afghan activist, who asked not to disclose her identity, show a number of men and women demonstrating in the Dasht-e-Barchi area of Kabul, with placards inviting people to a “beautiful life” by “promoting and observing proper hijab”.

The activist, who witnessed the demonstrations, explained that these were families of detainees seeking the release of the women and aiming to prevent further arrests in the community.
Proactive approach to Taliban helps safeguard security in northwest China: envoy (South China Morning Post)
South China Morning Post [1/10/2024 2:00 AM, Orange Wang, 951K, Neutral]
China’s enhanced “proactive position” in Afghanistan over the past decade has helped to safeguard security in the northwestern Chinese region that borders its troubled neighbour, according to Beijing’s special envoy for Afghan affairs.

Yue Xiaoyong said China had “accurately grasped” the issue’s general trend. Beijing has also defused various risks and maintained the strategic security of China’s northwest periphery, he added.

“In the grand picture of our foreign diplomacy, our proactive position in Afghanistan and its neighbouring South Asian region has been strengthened,” Yue told an event at Renmin University’s School of Global and Area Studies in Beijing on Tuesday.

A long-standing concern for Beijing is the potential for its neighbour to harbour terrorist and extremist groups that could pose a security threat, particularly to Xinjiang, which shares a 92.45km (57.4 miles) border with Afghanistan.

In October, the Taliban leadership assured Beijing that it regards threats to China as seriously as a threat against its own country.

While not formally recognising the Taliban regime, China is one of the few countries – along with Pakistan and Russia – to maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul after the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan two years ago.

Yue’s comments came amid growing signs that China is continuing to step up its engagement with Afghanistan, including the arrival in Beijing in November of the Taliban’s newly appointed ambassador Bilal Karimi.

That put China among only a handful of nations to host a Taliban ambassador since the Islamic fundamentalist group regained power in August 2021.

Late last month, Karimi met the head of the Chinese foreign ministry’s Asian department Liu Jinsong for a “friendly and in-depth exchange”, according to the ministry.

And in late December, China abstained from a UN Security Council vote advocating the appointment of a special envoy for the war-torn country following an independent assessment report issued in November.

The resolution was adopted, with China calling on UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to be cautious in dealing with the appointment.

In an explanation of its vote, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN Geng Shuang said a forcible appointment that disregarded Afghanistan’s views could leave the special envoy “unable to discharge their functions at all”.

It could “also heighten the antagonism and confrontation between the international community and the Afghan authorities,” Geng said.

“It is our hope that going forward, the secretary-general will … continue to strengthen communication and interaction with the Afghan authorities, and strive to find appropriate solutions.”

Analysts have argued that China’s apparently greater role in Afghanistan shows that Beijing is happy to build relations – starting with trade – with the Taliban to fill a void left by the West and seize opportunities for longer-term gain.

In October, the Taliban’s acting minister for commerce and industry Haji Nooruddin Azizi attended the third edition of China’s Belt and Road Forum, meeting Yue in Beijing during the trip.

Afghanistan holds strategic importance for the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s massive infrastructure project. The Central Asian country’s geographic position makes it a potential corridor connecting China with the Middle East and Europe.

The landlocked nation also has mineral resources which are of economic interest to China including lithium, a key component in batteries for electric vehicles and smartphones.

China’s involvement in Afghanistan has increased significantly since 2012, when Beijing and Kabul upgraded relations to a strategic partnership under then-presidents Hu Jintao and Hamid Karzai.

Asked in December whether China has formally recognised the Taliban rulers, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that “we hope Afghanistan will … build an open and inclusive political structure, adopt moderate and prudent domestic and foreign policies, firmly combat all forms of terrorist forces”.
Minivan explosion in Afghanistan kills at least 3; the Islamic State group claims responsibility (AP)
AP [1/10/2024 2:19 AM, Staff, 456K, Negative]
The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a minivan explosion in the Afghan capital on Tuesday that killed at least three people.

The militant group said it detonated an explosive on a vehicle belonging to employees of Afghanistan’s main prison in Kabul, killing and wounding about 10 people, according to a statement released by the group shortly after the attack.

Police spokesman Khalid Zadran confirmed that a bomb had exploded but said three civilians were killed and four others wounded in the attack.

He added that the explosion occurred in the eastern part of the city, in the Alokhail area, and that police had detained one suspect.

The Islamic State group’s affiliate in the region has in the past carried out attacks often targeting Shiites, whom IS considers to be apostates.

Over the weekend, the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a minibus explosion in western Kabul that killed at least five people.

The IS affiliate has been a major rival of the Taliban since the latter seized control of Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and other troops withdrew. IS militants have struck in Kabul and in northern provinces.
Tajik Militant Commander Under Taliban Wanted In Dushanbe Vanishes In Afghanistan (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/9/2024 8:17 AM, Staff, 223K, Neutral]
Tajik militant Muhammad Sharifov (aka Mahdi Arsalon), who is wanted in Dushanbe on terrorism charges, disappeared in Afghanistan months ago, his relatives and friends said on January 8. After taking over Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban riulers appointed Sharifov, 30, to oversee districts along the Tajik-Afghan border. Fighters of the Ansarullah group were placed under his command. Tajikistan then expressed concerns over the presence of Ansarullah, which consists mostly of Tajiks who are not loyal to the Tajik government, close to the mutual border. The Taliban later moved Ansarullah fighters to other sites, apparently to ease tensions with Dushanbe.
Pakistan
Pakistani leader calls for global unity to fight diseases and emergencies caused by climate change (AP)
AP [1/10/2024 5:45 AM, Munir Ahmed, 456K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s prime minister on Wednesday called for unified efforts to tackle global infectious diseases like COVID-19 and emergencies caused by climate change, nearly 1 1/2-year after devastating floods killed 1,700 people in his nation.

Representatives from 70 countries, the World Health Organization, and other international organizations attended a two-day summit. It comes as reports show that millions of people who lost their homes in the floods were still living in tents for the second consecutive harsh winter.

The 2022 unprecedented flooding, which started in mid-June that year and which experts attribute in part to climate change, at one point left a third of Pakistan submerged.

Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar told the meeting in Islamabad that “no state in the world, no matter how powerful it is, can meet such challenges” alone.

Kakar said Pakistan is the eighth most vulnerable country to the impacted by climate change. He said while the developed world has systems in place to timely respond to health emergencies, a similar setup is lacking in the developing world.

Dozens of countries and international institutions at an international conference in Geneva in January 2023 pledged more than $9 billion to help Pakistan recover and rebuild from the summer floods.

According to the U.K.-based Islamic Relief charity, the progress has been far too slow, with only an estimated 5% of damaged and destroyed homes fully rebuilt. It said many rural flood survivors feel abandoned, with a worsening mental health crisis in some communities.

The donor conference “was widely seen as a success, but most of the money pledged has not yet reached people on the ground,” the group said. It said millions were still living in tents or basic shelters, without access to decent livelihoods or basic services.
Former Pakistani prime minister Khan and his wife are indicted in a graft case (AP)
AP [1/9/2024 12:46 PM, Staff, 22K, Negative]
A Pakistani court on Tuesday indicted imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife on graft charges of retaining state gifts from when Khan was in power, including jewelry from Saudi Arabia’s government, authorities said.

The latest indictment was another blow to Khan and his political party ahead of parliamentary elections on Feb. 8.

Officials said Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, pleaded not guilty when the charges were read out at a court at the prison in the garrison city of Rawalpindi.

Khan’s legal team confirmed the indictment of Khan and his wife in the case filed by the National Accountability Bureau.

Khan was ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April 2022.

The 71-year-old former cricketer, Pakistan’s most popular opposition figure, is serving time on a corruption conviction and has multiple other legal cases hanging over him.
3 police and a civilian killed in a pre-dawn militant attack in northwest Pakistan (AP)
AP [1/10/2024 12:30 AM, Riaz Khan, 456K, Negative]
About a dozen armed militants attacked a Pakistani police checkpoint on a highway in the country’s northwest before dawn Wednesday, killing three police officers and a civilian before fleeing the scene, authorities said.

The attack on the Lachi checkpoint along the Indus Highway in Kohat, a district in the restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, triggered a shootout, according to Jabir Khan, a local police official. Officers returned fire and a search was underway to find the assailants, he added.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but suspicion is likely to fall on the Pakistani Taliban, who often target security forces across the country, especially in the northwest near the Afghan border.

The latest attack was the third on police in the past three days in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bringing to 12 the number of officers killed so far there. On Tuesday, suspected militants shot and killed two police officers assigned to escort polio workers in the district of Bannu. Another two officers were also wounded in that attack, the second targeting a nationwide anti-polio drive.

The day before, on Monday, a roadside bombing that targeted police assigned to protect polio vaccination teams killed seven officers in Mamund, a former stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban near the Afghan border.

The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack, although the Islamic State group issued a competing claim. Both militant groups are active in the region and have issued competing claims in thee past.

The Pakistani Taliban — also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP — are a separate group but allied with the Afghan Taliban, who took over Afghanistan in August 2021, following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from the country. The takeover emboldened the TTP, who often carry out attacks near the Afghan border and elsewhere in the country.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has also seen a rise in violence with deadly incursions by militants last year. Last January, at least 101 people were killed, mostly police officers, when a suicide bomber disguised as a policeman attacked a mosque in the northwestern city of Peshawar.
‘Kill and dump policy’: Baloch protest man’s custodial murder in Pakistan (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [1/9/2024 6:03 AM, Abid Hussain, 2060K, Negative]
The mercury has fallen below 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) on a biting January evening in Pakistan’s capital. But Najma Mola Baksh is undeterred.

Najma is among nearly 400 members of the ethnic Baloch community camping outside the National Press Club in Islamabad for weeks now to protest against the extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances rampant in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

The protesters – half of them women and children – kept shifting uncomfortably in the tents and under the open sky, holding on tightly to their jackets, sweaters and quilts to brave the cold.

Najma has travelled more than 1,500km (932 miles) from her hometown of Turbat city in Balochistan to demand justice in the murder of her younger brother, Balaach Mola Baksh, the youngest among eight siblings.

Balaach, 20, was abducted from his home in Turbat on the night of October 29 by men in civilian clothes, suspected officials from the security agencies. The family filed a missing complaint with the police but did not hear for nearly a month despite protests on the street.

He was eventually presented in a court in Turbat on November 21.

“We were there in the court when the police brought him,” Najma told Al Jazeera. “He looked at us quietly. He looked weak, as if he was beaten and threatened. We tried to talk to him, he would only nod and just acknowledge us, without speaking anything at all.”

Two days later, the family came to know Balaach had been killed in custody.

In a statement, the provincial Counter Terrorist Department (CTD) said Balaach had confessed his involvement in “terrorist activities” and identified places where his colleagues were hiding. The CTD claimed its team was attacked during an operation to arrest the fighters, killing Balaach in the crossfire.

But Najma and her family say it was yet another extrajudicial killing of one of their community members in the restive province bordering Afghanistan.

Decades-old conflict

Balochistan – Pakistan’s largest but least populous province – has a long history of marginalisation. The province was annexed by Pakistan in 1948, soon after partition from India, and there has been a separatist movement since.

Home to about 15 million of Pakistan’s estimated 240 million people, according to the 2023 census, Balochistan is also the country’s poorest, despite being rich in natural resources, including oil, coal, gold, copper and gas reserves, which generate substantial revenue for the federal government.

It also has Pakistan’s only deep-sea port at Gwadar, a crucial trade corridor for the $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that aims to link southwestern China to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan.

Baloch allege the Pakistani state has neglected their people and exploited the province for its mineral resources, triggering separatist sentiments.

Balochistan has seen at least five rebellion movements since the formation of Pakistan in 1947. The latest wave began in the early 2000s, with demands for a larger share of its people in the province’s resources soon turning into calls for complete independence.

Several Baloch armed groups have been fighting Pakistan’s security forces for the province’s independence for nearly two decades.

The Pakistani government’s response to the separatist movement has seen a violent crackdown, killing and disappearing thousands of ethnic Baloch suspected of either being a rebel or supporting the rebellion. Many of those missing turned up dead later, often with torture marks on their bodies.

In a 2016 report, the United Nations Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances said their sources in Balochistan allege more than 14,000 people were missing there, but the provincial government recognised less than 100.

Baloch activists allege at least 504 people were killed extrajudicially in the province only last year. The government says they were suspected rebels.

“We had always heard of incidents of people being picked up and then turning up dead, but never in my wildest nightmare that I imagined something like this would happen to my own brother,” Balaach’s elder brother Younis Mola Baksh told Al Jazeera as he broke into tears.

Younis said his brother was a keen poet and singer. He showed videos of Balaach singing Urdu and Balochi songs. “My family is not going to sleep in peace again now,” he said.

‘Kill and dump policy’

After their protest, a case was registered in early December against the CTD and police officials in connection with Balaach’s murder. The provincial government also announced the formation of separate committees at both federal and provincial levels to investigate such killings.

But Mahrang Baloch, a young doctor in her 20s who is leading the protest in Islamabad, has no hope for any justice.

“We have seen so much in the past years that we do not trust the state at all. Yet, here we are, to raise our voices, to register our protest and we want the authorities to return our missing,” she told Al Jazeera. Her tone was soft but there was steeliness in her words.

Mahrang was 10 when her father Abdul Ghaffar Langove was abducted in 2006 and released in 2009, only to be picked up again a few months later.

“Two years later [in 2011], his mutilated body was recovered,” Mahrang said, calling it the Pakistan government’s “kill and dump policy”.

In 2019, Mahrang joined the women-led Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), a rights group that campaigns against enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings of the community.

The BYC’s latest protest was ignited by Balaach’s killing. When their demands were not met in Balochistan, the group decided to lead a long march from Turbat to Islamabad, where they camped outside the press club.

“Even though I know I am not going to get justice here, but I will not leave till we get justice for all the other families who lost their loved ones, those who were killed or abducted by the state,” Najma told Al Jazeera as she held a picture of her brother.

According to Pakistan’s Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, at least 2,708 people went missing in Balochistan since 2011, when the commission was formed, till August last year.

The cases of more than 2,250 others were disposed of by the commission, claiming they either returned to their homes or were located at internment centres or prisons.

The protesters in Islamabad are sceptical of any action by the government.

“The response by this government is worse than ever before. They are not worried about their image, and they are acting with complete impunity,” Mahrang told Al Jazeera. “They even attacked us by shelling at us when we arrived in Islamabad and tried to stop us from protesting.”

On Friday, a case of sedition was filed against Mahrang and hundreds of other protesters for allegedly inciting people to revolt against the state.

“The sedition case against me, filed in Kahirpur city of Sindh [province], where I have never even been in my life, is only an attempt to threaten me,” she told Al Jazeera. “It is only an attempt to divert my attention from the sit-in. The state is trying to scare me.”

Pakistan is currently governed by a caretaker government which will oversee the national elections, due in less than a month.

Mahrang said they have presented a five-point charter of demands before the government, including the formation of a UN working group fact-finding mission to be sent to Balochistan to investigate rights violations by the security forces.

It also demanded the CTD accept culpability in Balaach’s murder in a “staged fake encounter” and called for the dismantling of CTD and other “death squads supported by the state agencies”.

“This protest will turn into a movement. It has nothing to do with politics or anything. We want the government to tell us if our missing people are alive or dead. All we ask for us is to give us a definitive answer,” Mahrang told Al Jazeera.

“Waiting for the return of your loved ones, not knowing if they will ever return, is the worst feeling.”
India
India to Boost Warships in Arabian Sea to Combat Piracy Risk (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [1/9/2024 8:01 PM, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, 5543K, Negative]
India will increase the number of warships for anti-piracy operations in the Arabian Sea by five times more than last year as the threats of attacks rise.

At least a dozen warships will police the vast waters, senior Indian officials said, asking not to be identified in order to discuss confidential information.

The South Asian nation increased deployment in the region from two to five warships in December after a tanker carrying chemicals was hit by a projectile from an unknown source near Indian waters. On Friday, India’s marine commandos boarded a hijacked cargo carrier to rescue the vessel and its crew.

Each of India’s warships will carry a detachment of marine commandos and have helicopters on board, the people said. In addition, the warships will be backed by US made MQ9 drones and long-range surveillance aircraft.

Vivek Madhwal, a spokesman for India’s navy, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.

The move to have more warships in the Arabian Sea matches with India’s broader policy of projecting itself as the primary security partner for nations in the region, through which some 40% of the world’s oil is transported.

India permanently deploys warships at five choke points in the Indian Ocean, stretching from the Gulf of Aden in the west to the Malacca Strait in the east. Its navy is carrying out more warship patrols than ever before in the Indian Ocean as concerns grow about China’s increasing naval power.

New Delhi, however, remains reluctant to officially join the US-led multinational naval coalition of 20 nations operating in the Red Sea against the Yemeni Houthi militants. The US says the rebels are backed by Iran, with whom India has deep historical ties. Also, India has never joined any coalition unless it’s under the aegis of the United Nations.

In addition, New Delhi reasons since the US-led coalition is operating in the Red Sea, strengthening anti-piracy operations in the Arabian Sea would only add to the overall effort to secure commerce in the region, the people said.

India was carefully evaluating all aspects of the unfolding situation in the region and its “defense forces are taking necessary measures,” a spokesperson for the country’s Ministry of External Affairs told reporters in response to a question on whether it would join the US-led operation in December.

The attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea is hindering India’s trade, with exports likely to take about a $30 billion hit this fiscal year, according to some estimates.
Dutch, Singapore firms set to invest $7 billion in India (Reuters)
Reuters [1/9/2024 10:53 AM, Shivam Patel, 5239K, Neutral]
Dutch and Singapore firms are set to commit $7.19 billion in investments in India during a investors’ summit in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, months before a national election.

Modi will address thousands of investors on Wednesday at the start of the three-day Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit where business leaders, chief executives and diplomats from 133 countries will participate

The summit is one of Modi’s last major investment summits before the elections, in which he will fight for a third term and is widely expected to win.

Posters of Modi were put up across Ahmedabad, the largest city of Gujarat, along with those of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan who arrived in the state on a visit ahead of the event.

Singapore’s High Commission in India said a post on X social media that the country’s delegation will announce 270 billion rupees ($3.25 billion) of investments at the summit.

On Monday, Amlan Bora, the chief India representative of the Netherlands Business Support Office, told the ANI news agency that the Dutch delegation, including Dutch companies, will propose total investments of 3.6 billion euros ($3.94 billion) in Gujarat and other Indian states at the summit.
From Dependency to Dominance: India’s Critical Mineral Crusade (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/9/2024 10:42 AM, Manish Vaid, 201K, Positive]
India emerged from COP28 as a beacon of commitment to a sustainable future, advocating for a phased transition that prioritizes inclusion for all while recognizing the continued role of fossil fuels in the global economy. Yet, amid this discourse, the often-underappreciated narrative of critical minerals has taken center stage in India’s pursuit of a greener, more resilient tomorrow.

Critical minerals, the linchpin of renewable energy and clean technologies, remain pivotal but elusive resources in India’s transition toward a low-carbon future. While the nation asserts its ambitious goal to achieve 50 percent of its cumulative installed electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030, it faces a formidable challenge concerning the accessibility, extraction, and processing of these minerals, predominantly controlled by a select few nations.

The vulnerability inherent in India’s dependency on critical minerals manifests starkly in its import reliance, notably from countries like China for minerals such as amorphous graphite, cobalt oxides, and nickel oxides and hydroxides. India’s reliance, with imports of significant quantities of these minerals over the last five years, is a critical point of exposure to potential supply disruptions, price volatility, and geopolitical risks.

Over the span of 2017 to 2023, India procured 50,000 tonnes of amorphous graphite from China, in addition to significant quantities of cobalt oxide (1,100 tonnes) and nickel oxide and hydroxide (5,300 tonnes). Notably, India relies entirely on imports for its lithium and cobalt needs, predominantly sourced from China, a country also commanding more than 60 percent of the global lithium-ion battery production.

In response to these challenges, India has identified 30 minerals as crucial for its national and economic security. These minerals, including cobalt, lithium, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements, have importance beyond economic implications, intertwining with strategic sectors like defense, space, telecommunications, and high-tech electronics. Such strategic identification aligns with India’s pursuit of self-reliance and inclusivity, integral to realizing its net-zero emissions target by 2070.

The discussions at COP28 also underscored the critical need for sustainable extraction practices, resilient supply chains, technological advancements, and the role of critical minerals in achieving global sustainability goals. The emphasis on a just transition stressed the imperative of ensuring fair access to critical minerals for an equitable renewable energy future.

India’s recent initiatives in the realm of critical minerals signify a proactive stance. Collaborations like the Mineral Security Partnership, approvals for commercial mining, and strategic joint ventures with countries like Australia, aim to fortify India’s self-sufficiency in critical minerals. However, amidst progress, challenges loom large.

China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains poses a substantial risk to India’s goals, necessitating diversification strategies. China wields considerable influence in the mining sector and holds a commanding stance in the processing and production of vital minerals, including rare earth elements, cobalt, lithium, and nickel. These minerals serve as indispensable components for low-carbon technologies, defense infrastructure, and various high-tech applications. Leveraging its position, China has previously enforced limitations on mineral exports, impacting nations such as the United States, Japan, and Sweden, which rely on these minerals for various applications, such as semiconductors, electronics, and clean energy. Moreover, the United Kingdom’s Foreign Affairs Committee in Parliament highlighted a concerning vulnerability tied to dependence on Beijing for essential materials, which can hamper U.K.’s net zero ambitions.

Additionally, the surging demand for these minerals in low-carbon technologies exacerbates supply chain pressures, warranting a nuanced and strategic approach.

Looking ahead, India’s trajectory in the critical minerals landscape hinges on multifaceted strategies. Bridging the gap between demand and supply mandates a blend of domestic development and international partnerships. The narrative isn’t solely about energy security; it’s about resilience, sustainability, and sovereignty.

India’s quest for critical minerals intertwines with its aspirations for a greener future and a stronger economy. Responsible extraction practices that mitigate environmental and social impacts are imperative. The nation’s journey toward sustainability rests on its ability to secure these resources while navigating the complexities of a global landscape.

This pursuit necessitates comprehensive policies that balance sustainable extraction, technological advancements, and global collaborations. India’s resilience and sovereignty in the realm of critical minerals will determine its ability to lead in the transition towards a sustainable and inclusive future.

Thus, India’s pursuit of critical minerals isn’t just an economic prerogative; it’s a strategic imperative intertwined with the nation’s sovereignty and commitment to sustainability. Embracing these minerals responsibly while navigating global dynamics is pivotal. India’s journey toward a greener, more resilient future hinges on its ability to secure these resources while upholding environmental and social stewardship.
NSB
One-Sided Bangladesh Election Raises Fear of One-Party Rule (VOA)
VOA [1/9/2024 5:18 PM, Staff, 761K, Neutral]
Despite assurances from a group of international observers that Bangladesh’s January 7 election was "free, fair and peaceful," officials from several countries have expressed doubts over the credibility of the results.

Bangladesh held its 12th parliamentary elections Sunday, with incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League winning a fourth consecutive term. But many political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, or BNP, the main opposition, boycotted the election.

The months before the vote were marred by protests that sometimes resulted in violence. A crackdown on opposition activists saw tens of thousands jailed.

A group of international observers invited by Bangladesh’s Election Commission that included former U.S. Congressman Jim Bates visited several polling centers in Dhaka as voters cast their ballots. At a press conference after polls closed, they issued glowing assessments of the vote.

"I’d like to say it’s a free and fair election already," Bates said before results were announced.

But a U.S. State Department spokesperson told VOA in an email that "The United States Government did not field an observation team for the 2024 Bangladesh Parliamentary elections. The individuals in question were acting as private citizens. ... Their comments do not represent the views of the U.S. government."

Instead, the United States, United Kingdom, and the United Nations released statements expressing concerns about the democratic process in general and the human rights situation.

"The United States shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair and we regret that not all parties participated,” Mathew Miller, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said in a statement. “The United States condemns violence that took place during elections and in the months leading up to it.”

"Respect for human rights, rule of law and due process are essential elements of the democratic process," the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said in the statement. "These standards were not consistently met during the election period."

U.N. human rights chief Volker Türk noted, “In the months leading up to the vote, thousands of opposition supporters have been detained arbitrarily or subjected to intimidation. Such tactics are not conducive to a truly genuine process."

Türk also urged the Bangladeshi government to create conditions for truly inclusive democracy.

While the Western democratic states and international organizations were largely critical of the election, some countries, including China, Russia and India, were quick to congratulate Hasina.

The Chinese envoy in Bangladesh was the first to congratulate Hasina. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called to applaud her victory and expressed hope for continued close ties with its neighbor.

“Spoke to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and congratulated her on her victory for the fourth consecutive term in the parliamentary elections. … We are committed to further strengthen our enduring and people-centric partnership with Bangladesh,” the Indian prime minister posted on X.

Boycott results in low turnout

The opposition coalition demanded the resignation of the government ahead of the election and the appointment of an interim, nonpartisan government. When the Hasina government refused, the BNP announced a non-cooperation movement against the government, urging the people not to cooperate with the government or participate in the election.

Official figures provided by the Election Commission show voter turnout at 41.8%. However, the credibility of this figure has been questioned by a wide range of international media, observers, human rights organizations, and even by a section of those who contested in the election.

One reason for suspicion is an unusual jump in the turnout numbers. The Election Commission secretary estimated turnout at 27.15% an hour before polls closed. But the final figure provided by the commission was 41.8%. Opponents say the claim that more than one-third more votes were cast in the final hour of voting put the official figure in serious doubt.

In 2018 elections, the voter turnout stood at more than 80%.

One-party rule

Among the 298 officially announced results, 280 seats are secured by the ruling Awami League and so-called independent candidates who are Awami League members. As a result, 94% of the parliament seats will be filled by lawmakers who are members of the ruling party.

Of the 27 parties who fielded candidates in the election, 23 failed to secure a single seat.

G.M. Qader, chairman of the Jatiya Party, which managed to win 11 seats, told a local TV station the elections were held under government control.

“Whoever the government wanted to win, won," Qader said. "I believe this election will not gain credibility.”

Professor Ali Riaz, a political analyst at Illinois State University, said in a recent podcast on Global News that Bangladesh is heading toward one-party rule with Awami League holding power and the other parties constituting the opposition in the parliament with the support of the ruling party.

Prime Minister Hasina on two recent occasions referred to the BNP as a terrorist organization, leading to speculation among political analysts and activists that the new government may ban the BNP from politics.
Bangladesh sees U.S., U.K. election critiques as grudging acceptance (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [1/9/2024 7:05 AM, Faisal Mahmud, 293K, Negative]
The governments of the U.S. and U.K. have termed Bangladesh’s election "not free and fair" but said they would continue cooperation with Dhaka, casting some doubt on widespread assumptions that Western governments would take a tough stance over the South Asian country’s controversial polls.

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party secured a fourth straight term in power in Sunday’s voting. But it was not much of a contest: The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted the election over Hasina’s refusal to step aside for a neutral administration to oversee it.

Besides the lack of serious competition, the campaign and election day were tarnished by violence, arrests of opposition leaders and activists, and allegations of manipulation at polling stations.

Within hours of the results, China, Russia and Bangladesh’s most influential neighbor India congratulated Hasina on her win. But reactions from Western countries, particularly the U.S., were closely watched. Before the polls, Washington imposed visa restrictions on those deemed to undermine a fair process, and many have speculated that the key buyer of Bangladesh’s garment industry might levy trade sanctions.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller issued a statement dated Monday saying that Washington "shares the view with other observers that these elections were not free or fair" and regrets that not all parties did not take part.

The statement acknowledged that the "Awami League party won a majority of seats" but expressed concern over "arrests of thousands of political opposition members" and the "reports of irregularities on the election day."

Likewise, the U.K.’s Foreign Office "noted" the results of the election but stressed that the Bangladeshi people did not "have the fullest range of voting options."

Britain also expressed concern about arrests and condemned "the acts of intimidation and violence that took place prior to and during the campaign period."

"Such conduct has no place in political life," the office said.

Nevertheless, both governments said they would continue to work with Bangladesh.

The U.S. said it is "committed to partnering with Bangladesh" to advance their shared vision "for a free and open Indo-Pacific" and to "support human rights and civil society," and for deepening "people-to-people and economic ties."

The U.K. statement said the two countries "share a deep and historic friendship" and that it encourages "all political parties to address their differences and find a common way forward in the interests of the people of Bangladesh," which it will "continue to support."

Within the ruling Awami League, at least, the statements were perceived as tacit acceptance.

"They criticize our electoral process without giving any specifications," said Mohammad A. Arafat, an AL politician elected in a constituency in Dhaka. "But they say they would continue their cooperation with us, which basically means they have accepted the election results."

Arafat also argued that the U.K. specifically condemned violence surrounding the election, which he claimed was mostly conducted by opposition members, not the ruling party.

Rumeen Farhana, international affairs secretary for the BNP, pushed back against the notion that the party was responsible for violence. "BNP was nowhere -- not in the election, and not even on the field. It was an election between AL and their dummy candidates. You wouldn’t find such an absurd poll in anywhere in the world."

Reacting to the Western statements, Farhana said the Bangladeshi people had found hope in previous U.S. moves to sanction a few ruthless individuals in the security forces and later impose visa restrictions on those who undermine free elections.

"But it is evident that the fascist regime cares little about the U.S. policies and they already renewed their illegal stay through a dummy pseudo election without voters’ participation," she said, highlighting the election’s low turnout.

"It’s time the U.S. and the democracy-loving world comes out of empty rhetoric and takes some real actions that are effective to compel a regime change for fair votes," she argued.

Analysts interpreted the statements in similar fashion to the Awami League, with some distinctions.

"It seems both the U.S. and U.K. have accepted the results of the Bangladesh election and will continue to cooperate with the new government," said Munshi Faiz Ahmed, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), a state-sponsored think tank on policy and security.

Ahmed, however, pointed out that the U.S. mentioned deepening "people-to-people ties" instead of "government-to-government" ones.

"In diplomatic communication, it leaves the scope of ambiguity," said Ahmed, also a former ambassador to China. "It can be interpreted by the opposition or anyone as [saying] that the U.S. might continue to support the people of Bangladesh but might remain cold in government communication or support."

Dhaka-based political analyst Zahed Ur Rahman suggested the U.S. wants to keep its strategic options open, noting the reference to the Indo-Pacific.

Still, he said, the American and British statements share "a similar tone of denouncing the election’s fairness and credibility" while both countries "reiterated concerns about the repression of the opposition party leaders and activists."

Meanwhile, the United Nations’ human rights chief Volker Turk on Monday called on Bangladesh’s government "to take steps to renew the country’s commitment to democracy and human rights" and voiced distress that the "environment for Sunday’s poll was marred by violence and repression of opposition candidates and supporters."
As West condemns Bangladesh election, China and Russia embrace Dhaka (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [1/10/2024 3:30 AM, Najmus Sakib, 2.1M, Neutral]
Hours after Bangladesh’s ruling Awami League was declared the landslide winner in Sunday’s election, which the opposition had boycotted, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hosted a queue of foreign diplomats, each coming to congratulate her.

The envoys of India, the Philippines, Singapore and other nations were there. Also visiting the prime minister were the ambassadors of Russia and China.

In Washington and London, meanwhile, the governments of the United Kingdom and the United States criticised the election as illegitimate. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, in a statement, said that Washington believed the voting process was “not free and fair, and we regret that not all parties participated”. The UK criticised what it described as “acts of intimidation and violence” during the election.

Bangladesh’s response? “We’re not bothered,” foreign minister AK Abdul Momen said on Tuesday, when asked about the comments from the US and the UK.

That contrast between the West’s condemnation and the welcoming embrace of China and Russia is a window into potentially dramatic foreign policy consequences of Hasina’s return to power, say political analysts and economists. For the West, Hasina’s increasing ties with China and Russia, on top of Bangladesh’s rejection of its concerns over the election, could poison ties with Dhaka. But that in turn could end up pushing Dhaka even closer to Beijing and Moscow.

Dhaka-based political analyst Zahed Ur Rahman said he believes there is a likelihood of the US imposing visa restrictions and targeted sanctions against individuals who played key roles in the conduct of the election, which independent monitors have criticised for violence and intimidation against the ruling party’s political opponents. In August, the US had declared a first set of constraints on visas for some Bangladeshi officials.

But doing so, he said, could jeopardise US plans to rope Bangladesh into its strategy to balance the rise of China, especially with the deepening economic ties between Dhaka and Beijing. China has been Bangladesh’s top trading partner for more than a decade – a period during which Hasina has ruled uninterrupted.

“The new government will find it very challenging to work deeply with the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy that actually is a policy to contain China,” Rahman said.

Russia, meanwhile, has supported Bangladesh in opening the country’s first nuclear power plant. Dhaka received the first supply of uranium from Moscow in October. Russia is also a major supplier of three essential commodities – fuel, food grains and fertilisers – to Bangladesh at relatively affordable prices. “If the West led by the US goes very coercive with the new government, then Bangladesh ties with Russia will grow fast,” Rahman said.

That geopolitical calculus poses challenges for the West, said experts. It will be difficult for the US and its allies to go about business as usual with Bangladesh. But it is unclear how far they might go in trying to hurt Hasina’s government.

The West “will face a serious dilemma,” said Ali Riaz, professor and political scientist at Illinois State University.

Yet, Bangladesh, too, faces tough choices.

The country’s apparel industry, which employs four million workers, clocked exports worth $47bn in 2023 – 84 percent of the country’s total exports. The US is the single largest export destination for Bangladeshi garments.

However, recently, eight US Congress members wrote to the American Apparel and Footwear Association to pressure Dhaka on fair wages and labour rights in Bangladesh. Several workers have been killed in clashes with security forces during street protests seeking a raise in minimum wages. Bangladesh’s embassy in Washington has cautioned its government in Dhaka that the country’s ready-made garments sector could become a target of Western measures.

It’s a concern that economist Mustafizur Rahman shares. “If the US and the EU take any punitive measure in the form of additional tariff or sanctions, then there will of course be an adverse impact,” Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Dhaka-based Centre for Policy Dialogue, told Al Jazeera. Bangladesh’s dependence on garment exports makes it particularly vulnerable to any such targeting, he said.

And any resulting economic turmoil would only push Bangladesh even further towards China. “It is not because the Western countries may either put more pressure or recalibrate its policy, but because the ongoing economic crisis will require deep-pocket support and there will be increasing ideological affinity between these two countries’ leadership,” said Riaz at Illinois State University.

In Dhaka, Awami League spokesperson Mahbubul Alam Hanif insisted that Sunday’s election would not affect the government’s relations with the West.

“We have development partners and they often give suggestions, including to strengthen democracy, but I don’t think Sunday’s election affects US-Bangladesh ties,” Hanif said.

How the re-elected Awami League government handles politics post-election could also determine the pressure on the US and its allies to act against Bangladesh.

Since mid-August last year, more than 27,200 members of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party have been imprisoned and at least 104,000 have been sued on different charges, according to BNP figures. At least 27 BNP men also have been killed in political violence since October.

With a supermajority in parliament – the Awami League won 222 of 300 seats, and many of the more than 60 independents who won are former members of the ruling party who were allegedly asked to contest to give a veneer of a fight – opposition leaders expect the government to target them even more.

BNP leader Kayser Kamal said the “illegitimate” government would intensify its crackdown on opponents to divert attention from the “sham” election.

Riaz agreed. “Bangladesh is becoming a de facto one-party state,” he said. The government, he said, would “adopt more repressive measures, try to decimate any kind of opposition through legal and extra-legal measures”.
Bhutan’s People’s Democratic Party wins election in Himalayan kingdom and returns to power (AP)
AP [1/9/2024 9:27 AM, Anupam Nath and Wasbir Hussain, 456K, Neutral]
The People’s Democratic Party won the most seats in Bhutan’s parliamentary elections Tuesday and will form the new government as residents hope politicians make good on promises to fix the economic crisis in the Himalayan nation.

Latest figures from the Bhutan Broadcasting Service, a national broadcaster, showed the PDP had won 30 of the 47 National Assembly seats to return to power, and the Bhutan Tendrel Party had secured 17.

It was the country’s fourth general elections since its transformation from a traditional monarchy to a parliamentary form of government in 2008.

The Election Commission of Bhutan will make its final declaration Wednesday.

Candidates on Tuesday’s ballot represented only the PDP of former Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay and the BTP led by former civil servant Pema Chewang. A primary round of voting in November eliminated three other parties, including the ruling center-left Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa party.

Bhutan is located between China and India, with both neighbors vying for influence in the landlocked nation of around 800,000 people.

The severe economic crisis played a major role in campaigning. According to the World Bank, Bhutan’s economy grew at a rate of 1.7% over the past five years. With unemployment a chronic problem, an exodus of young people in search of higher education and jobs abroad is undermining the country’s economic potential.

In a bid to overcome the economic challenges, Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuck announced in December plans for a megacity in Gelephu, a town on the border with the northeastern Indian state of Assam, that will have zero-carbon industries with foreign investment.

King Wangchuk said the city-building would be mindful of Bhutanese culture and tradition and will blend with the Himalayan ecosystem. He met with top Indian business leaders who are expected to invest in the project. Construction will take place in a specially administered zone in Bhutan that has investment-friendly laws.
Bhutan opposition party wins election amid economic challenges (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [1/9/2024 3:20 PM, Satoshi Iwaki, 293K, Neutral]
Voters in Bhutan backed the opposition People’s Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, in the final round of parliamentary elections Tuesday, local media reported.

The party won a majority of seats in the lower house in the fourth general election held by the small Himalayan country since its 2008 transition to a constitutional monarchy.

The ruling Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa Party had been eliminated in a preliminary round of voting in late November, leaving the final round as a contest between the People’s Democratic Party and the new Bhutan Tendrel Party and guaranteeing a change of government.

During the campaign, Tobgay criticized previous Prime Minister Lotay Tshering for the economy’s poor recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. He set out a 15 billion ngultrum ($180 million) stimulus plan to attract foreign investment and expand the tourism sector.

Bhutan’s government uses the unique concept of "gross national happiness" to promote well-being beyond economic wealth. But the country suffered a heavy economic blow from COVID-19 due to its heavy dependence on tourism.

The government has moved to cut jobs in the public sector, the country’s largest employer. The youth unemployment rate doubled over five years to 28.6% in 2022, and many young people have left for Australia.

The next administration will face the challenge of turning around the ailing economy. Gross domestic product shrank 3.3% in 2021, the International Monetary Fund reports. Though the economy rebounded to a 5.3% expansion in 2023, growth is forecast to slow to 3% this year.

On the foreign policy front, Bhutan is likely to further strengthen ties with India. The smaller nation is nonaligned, having no formal relations with any of the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members. Its diplomacy with major countries is conducted with neighbor India as an intermediary.

In a December speech for Bhutan’s National Day, King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck announced plans to establish a special administrative region in the country’s south, bordering the northeastern Indian state of Assam. The massive 1,000-square-kilometer Gelephu project seeks to create an international economic city.

The announcement came shortly after a visit by the king to India, where he told Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the purpose of the project is to build an economic corridor linking South Asia and Southeast Asia through India’s northeastern states.

The king sought cooperation on infrastructure development, including an international airport, and investment by Indian companies. India might take more of a hand in Bhutan’s foreign policy in exchange for economic support.

The change in leadership looks likely to affect border negotiations with China. Chinese and Indian troops engaged in a standoff in 2017 over the Doklam Plateau, which is claimed by Bhutan and China and borders India as well. Beijing has since established a permanent military presence there and pressured Bhutan to accept a territorial swap proposal that would cede Doklam to China.

Bhutan had been expected to compromise with China under the previous administration, given its conciliatory attitude toward Beijing, but the change in government makes that unlikely for now.

India has serious concerns about the border issue with China and should make stronger relations with Bhutan a diplomatic priority, said Pankaj Jha, a professor of international affairs at India’s O.P. Jindal Global University.
Bhutan’s Tobgay to become PM for second time (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [1/10/2024 2:03 AM, Staff, 304K, Neutral]
Bhutanese voters have elected Tshering Tobgay to become prime minister for a second time after his party won nearly two-thirds of seats, the election commission said in results released Wednesday.

The election was dominated by serious economic challenges that have called into question the Himalayan kingdom’s long-standing policy of prioritising "Gross National Happiness" over growth.

Bhutan also lies sandwiched between the globe’s two most populous countries, China and India, who watched the vote with keen interest as they eye strategic contested border zones.

Tobgay, head of the liberal People’s Democratic Party (PDP), who served as prime minister of the Himalayan kingdom from 2013 to 2018, won 30 of 47 seats in Tuesday’s election, official figures showed.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, Bhutan’s key trading partner, offered his "heartiest congratulations to my friend" Tobgay for winning the polls, according to a post on X, formerly Twitter.

Tobgay, who has promised to boost ties with India, including by developing rail links, responded by thanking Modi.

"I too look forward to working closely again with you to nurture and strengthen the unique bonds of friendship and cooperation that our nations enjoy," Tobgay wrote Wednesday.

Bhutan is a landlocked mountain nation of about 800,000 people, similar in area to Switzerland.

‘Very high unemployment’

The 58-year-old, a former civil servant, is a passionate conservation advocate who holds a degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Pittsburgh and a Master’s in public administration from Harvard.

Tobgay was also leader of the opposition in Bhutan’s first parliament when it was established in 2008, soon after the start of the reign of the present king.

Foremost in the minds of many who voted are the struggles facing the Buddhist-majority kingdom’s younger generation, with chronic youth unemployment and a brain drain.

The youth unemployment rate stands at 29 percent, according to the World Bank, while economic growth has sputtered along at an average of 1.7 percent over the past five years.

During campaigning, Tobgay sounded the alarm over Bhutan’s "unprecedented economic challenges and mass exodus".

But he remains committed to the constitutionally enshrined philosophy of a government that measures its success by the "happiness and well-being of the people".

"We have a very high unemployment rate, especially among the youth," said Vishal Rai, 47, a Bhutanese journalist.

"We have our economy in a very poor state, so we are expecting the government to start stimulating the economy."

Young citizens searching for better financial and educational opportunities abroad have left in record numbers since the last elections, with Australia as their top destination.

"From the winning party, I hope they would serve wholeheartedly and lead the country to prosperity," said 55-year-old housewife Dechen Wangmo.

"The poor people should benefit the most."
Bhutan’s Tobgay, environmental advocate facing economic headwinds (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [1/9/2024 10:58 AM, Staff, 11975K, Positive]
The man set to become Bhutan’s new prime minister is a passionate environmental advocate and sportsman, a veteran politician in a mountain kingdom where parliamentary democracy is still young.

Tshering Tobgay, who is expected to become premier for a second time after his party won nearly two-thirds of seats in elections on Tuesday, served as prime minister from 2013 to 2018.

The 58-year-old former civil servant, who holds degrees from the University of Pittsburgh and Harvard, was leader of the opposition in Bhutan’s first parliament when it was established in 2008.

Head of the liberal People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Tobgay fielded a heavyweight team that included several former ministers and lawmakers to win 30 of 47 seats in Tuesday’s election, Bhutanese media reported.

Usually dressed in the Himalayan nation’s traditional colourful "gho" clothes, a striped knee-length robe, he is an ardent backer of the country’s constitutionally enshrined policy of "Gross National Happiness".

The policy, launched by the previous king in the 1970s, is based on four pillars: governance, socio-economic development, preserving culture and protecting the environment.

In a TED talk Tobgay called the policy a "pioneering vision that aims to improve the happiness and well-being" of citizens.

He argued that while economic growth is important, it "must not come from undermining our unique culture or our pristine environment".

But he also acknowledged it is a policy that is "easier said than done, especially when you are one of the smallest economies in the world".

For Bhutan, a country of about 800,000 people sandwiched between the world’s two most populous nations India and China, the challenges are many.

They include rural poverty, high youth unemployment and brain drain abroad.

"We must strengthen our economy not only to retain our valuable human resources at home but also entice those who have migrated overseas to return and actively participate in nation-building," Tobgay pledged in his election manifesto.

He has promised to boost ties with India, including by developing rail links with his country’s giant southern neighbour.

More than two-thirds of landlocked Bhutan is covered in forest, and the country boasts of being among a handful of carbon-negative countries, a source of pride for Tobgay.

An advocate of conservation policies and efforts to protect biodiversity, Tobgay has warned of the dangers caused by fast-melting Himalayan glaciers as global temperatures rise.

He is also clear-eyed about the problems his nation faces.

"Bhutan is a small country in the Himalayas, we’ve been called Shangri-La... but let me tell you right off the bat, we are not," he said in the TED talk in 2016.

"My country is not one big monastery populated with happy monks... the reality is that we are a small, underdeveloped country doing our best to survive."

Married with two children, Tobgay is a keen sportsman, enjoying yoga and hiking in his country’s mountains.

He is also passionate about the national sport, archery, as well as cycling, and has competed in the country’s tough 266-kilometre (165 mile) one-day "Tour of the Dragon" mountain bike race.
Sri Lanka Central Bank Sees Policy Staying Supportive of Growth (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [1/10/2024 2:07 AM, Anusha Ondaatjie, 5.5M, Neutral]
Sri Lanka’s monetary policy will remain accommodative for the economy to reach its potential growth, while focusing on domestic price stability, Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

The current stance allows “sufficient space for monetary policy transmission to take full effect and to prevent any undue pressures on the economy,” Weerasinghe said Wednesday while delivering the monetary authority’s annual policy statement.

Sri Lanka’s central bank signaled last year it will pause its policy easing cycle after reducing borrowing costs by 650 basis points to prop up growth following an unprecedented economic crisis. While a cumulative $670 million in aid from the International Monetary Fund has helped in easing shortages in the country, growth still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Weerasinghe said further funds from the Washington-based lender will be crucial to build buffers and reduce risks.

Sri Lanka’s headline inflation has started inching up in the last few months after dropping to low-single digits from a peak of 70%. The central bank expects an uptick in the January print due to tax and energy tariff increases.

“A change in the course of monetary policy action may not be warranted as inflation expectations remain well-anchored,” he said. Sri Lanka aims to keep the inflation rate around 5% through the year.

The central bank plans to reduce the number of annual policy announcements to six, from eight, in order to make more informed decisions on the economy, Weerasinghe said. It’s also considering moving to a single policy rate, the governor said, without providing details.

The central bank currently has two benchmark rates, the standing lending facility rate and the standing deposit rate.

Debt Default

Authorities are also in the process of restructuring the nation’s debt after defaulting in 2022 for the first time in its history. In recent months, the government had struck debt deals with official creditors, including China, India and the Paris Club, as well as with holders of its local debt. The focus now is on negotiations with Beijing over the remaining debt owed to a Chinese state-owned financial institution and the nation’s dollar bondholders.

Sri Lanka continues in “good faith” negotiations with commercial creditors, and hopes to reach in-principle agreements as soon as possible, Weerasinghe said.

A successful debt restructuring agreement will pave the way for further funds from the IMF, aiding the economic turnaround and boosting support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government ahead of elections this year.

Sri Lanka’s dollar bonds were among the best performers in emerging markets last year, delivering returns of more than 60%, as the nation took steps to fix its debt pile and boosted its fiscal health.”
Central Asia
Empty Promises: Families Of Kazakh Mine Fire Victims Struggle For Aid (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/9/2024 12:38 PM, Yelena Weber, 223K, Negative]
Baby Afina was born two weeks after her 26-year-old father, Timur Sosnovsky, died in an inferno at a coal mine in central Kazakhstan with 45 others in October.

Afina’s mother, Anastasiya Sosnovskaya -- widowed at the age of 22 -- hasn’t yet received any of the promised state compensation from her late husband’s employer that was to be given to the devastated families of the victims of the tragedy.

Sosnovskaya also complains about the never-ending bureaucratic obstacles and complicated procedures she must complete to prove she is eligible to receive benefits.

“Right after the burial of my husband, I am hit with another burden as I was ordered to take a DNA test to establish the paternity of my baby in order to qualify for the life insurance payment,” Sosnovskaya told RFE/RL. “Everything is being delayed, and now we also have to take part in a court trial.”

The October 28 fire at the Kostenko mine in Qaraghandy Province killed 46 people and injured more than 200 others, making it the deadliest mine accident in Kazakhstan since it gained independence in 1991.

As the Central Asian nation mourned the victims, state and mining officials pledged generous compensation to the victims’ families.

But more than two months later, many families say they haven’t received any money or other assistance that authorities promised would be swiftly delivered. They also accuse officials of withholding funds from private individuals and companies donated to the victims’ families.

Among the miners killed in the fire was 32-year-old Damir Kalimulin, who left behind his wife and 7-year-old daughter.

Kalimulin had studied at a distance-learning college in hopes of changing his profession. But that dream was never realized as he perished trying to escape the deadly heat and fumes of the fire.

“Damir was killed when he was just 200 meters away from reaching safety,” his wife, Yulya Kalimulina, told RFE/RL.

“My daughter cries for her dad and this sadness has made her ill. She had to be hospitalized,” Kalimulina said while showing drawings her daughter made in memory of her father.

The operator of the mining facility, ArcelorMittal Temirtau, which is the local entity of Luxembourg-based steelmaker ArcelorMittal, said 206 of the 252 people at the Kostenko mine were evacuated after the fire broke out. The assets of the company have since been acquired by a Kazakh company and renamed Qarmet.

Kalimulina has received some of the financial compensation she was promised, enough to buy a modest home. She has also applied for insurance payments for her daughter and other benefits the family is eligible for.

“It’s painful enough to realize I can’t bring my husband back,” she said. “[But I also] had to travel several times to another city to gather the needed paperwork for the benefits, but officials told me later they had lost the documents and I had to do everything all over again.”

The miner’s widow said many relatives of the victims don’t know their rights when their applications are denied by officials.

Backtracking On Promises?

The stepson of one dead miner says he was denied compensation while the rest of the family received it.

Vasily Magada, who suffers from seizures, says he depended on the support of his stepfather, Rinat Kadyrov.

When authorities asked the victims’ families at a funeral ceremony for the miners what kind of assistance they needed, Magada said he requested some coal to heat his home and financial help to pay off a medical debt.

“The governor of Qaraghandy Province told me: ‘We’ll help you.’ But when I applied for the assistance it was rejected and authorities didn’t respond to my inquiries,” Magada said.

“Then I wrote to the [Kazakh] president’s office. On December 26, I received a letter from Qaraghandy authorities saying they had already paid out all of the compensation to the family,” he added.

Magada wasn’t told why he wasn’t included on the list of family members eligible for compensation or whether he will ever get the coal and financial aid he was promised.

Relatives of another victim of the mine fire, Vladimir Kataman, says the new owner of the Kostenko mine declined to pay for a modest home for his family despite initially promising to do so. According to an agreement between the company and the victims’ families, Qarmet has committed to pay for homes that have up to 18 square meters per family member.

“We found an apartment to buy within this size limit, but the company refused to pay, saying we had exceeded the price limit,” said Kataman’s son, Aleksandr.

“It wasn’t some kind of expensive, elite home. It was a very ordinary apartment. Besides, there wasn’t an upper limit on the price [in the agreement],” he said.

The family wants Qarmet to fulfill its legal obligations and has hired a lawyer.

State And Employer Obligations

RFE/RL contacted officials at Qarmet and authorities in Qaraghandy for comment but received no response. ArcelorMittal Temirtau’s assets were bought for some $286 million after Astana decided to end “investment cooperation” with ArcelorMittal in the wake of the deadly fire.

The Qaraghandy government told RFE/RL that authorities have provided legal support for the victims and assisted them in resolving individual cases for issues such as health care, education, and utilities. But they didn’t respond to RFE/RL’s questions about the complaints of many family members about the procedural problems and unpaid compensation.

According to the Kazakh Labor Ministry, the state’s obligations for the victims’ families include providing social-security benefits based on the deceased person’s salary and their number of dependents.

The ministry said the employer’s responsibilities include paying for the victims’ funerals, burial, and memorial services, repaying the deceased person’s loans, and a one-off payment to each family that is equal to 10 annual salaries of the miner.

Qarmet is also required to pay the medical insurance for the children of the victims until they reach 18, or 23 if they attend university. The company has also been ordered to pay the education costs for the children, for summer camps, and any medical treatment in sanatoriums. Qarmet is also required to provide New Year’s gifts for the family and coal to heat their homes, if needed.

Qarmet’s other obligations include providing jobs at the company for the spouses and children of the victims if they want such work. Some of the relatives told RFE/RL that Qarmet has made such employment offers.
Kazakhstan: Police making effort on domestic violence (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/9/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Positive]
Following a spate of troubling high-profile cases of gender-based violence, police in Kazakhstan are eager to be seen as grappling with the problem.

Speaking at a briefing on January 8, Renat Zulkhairov, a senior Interior Ministry official, indicated that figures from the second half of 2023 are a step in the right direction.

From July to December, police initiated administrative cases in connection with 64 percent of allegations of domestic violence, while that figure has generally not tended to exceed 30 percent. Twice as many arrests have been carried out over domestic violence offenses, Zulkhairov said.

The official said that more than 87,000 protective orders, which prohibit domestic violence offenders from contacting their victims and children for a month, have been issued over the past year. And the courts have handed down behavioral orders on 15,000 separate occasions – anything ranging from bans on drinking alcohol to evicting violent offenders from their homes – over that period.

Zulkhairov spoke of this as a triumph.

“The police are taking measures that allow us to formulate a principle of intolerance towards crime in society,” he said.

Lawmakers in May adopted changes to legislation that increased liability for domestic violence and ostensibly gave law enforcement agencies more scope to intervene.

Under amendments that came into force on July 1, it became possible for police to intervene in situations not just in instances when a victim had filed a report, but even when an episode of violence had been recorded.

Offenders are also less free to resort to the mechanism of court reconciliation as a way of ending prosecutions. Domestic violence may only rely on mediated resolution on a single occasion. It has typically been the case that half the court cases to do with domestic violence have been cut short due to reconciliation between the parties.

These breakthroughs are arguably the result of President Jomart-Kassym Tokayev, who included pledges to toughen up punishments for domestic violence among his proposed social reforms in a state of the nation speech in September 2022.

Not everybody offers such a rosy picture, though. Independent rights activists say they see no signs of significant improvement in the situation, since police and even judges in practice still often limit themselves to letting perpetrators off with just a warning, even after severe beatings.

The sense of a culture of impunity was starkly illustrated in November, when a former top government minister, Kuandyk Bishimbayev, was arrested in Astana on suspicion of murdering his wife. Thirty-one-year-old Saltanat Nukenova died as a result of severe beatings. People who knew the couple closely gave testimony at the time of how Bishimbayev routinely physically abused his wife, but was never taken to task.
Leader Of Karakalpak Diaspora In Kazakhstan Dies In Almaty Hospital (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [1/9/2024 10:02 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
A leader of the Karakalpak diaspora in Kazakhstan, Nietbai Urazbaev, who was sentenced to 12 years in prison in absentia in Uzbekistan over unprecedented Karakalpak protests in July 2022, has died in a hospital in Kazakhstan’s largest city, Almaty.

Karakalpak activist Aqylbek Muratbai said on January 9 that Urazbaev died of a heart attack at the age of 54.

Urazbaev left his native Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan in 2004 fearing for his safety over his human rights activities and lived in Kazakhstan’s western region of Manghystau since then. In recent months, he stayed at his daughter’s place in Almaty fearing he may be kidnapped by Uzbek secret service.

In July 2022, Urazbaev issued a video statement supporting Karakalpaks in his native republic’s capital, Nukus, who protested Tashkent’s plans to change the constitution that would have undermined the region’s right to self-determination.

The protests were violently dispersed. Uzbek authorities said at the time that 21 people died during the protests, but the Austrian-based Freedom for Eurasia human rights group said at least 70 people were killed during the unrest.

In 2017, Urazbaev became a Kazakh citizen, losing his Uzbek citizenship as Kazakh laws do not allow dual citizenship.

In May 2023, an Uzbek court sentenced Urazbaev to 12 years in absentia over the video statement he issued during the protests in Nukus.

In January last year, an Uzbek court sentenced 22 Karakalpak activists to prison terms on charges including undermining the constitutional order for taking part in the protests.

In March 2023, another 39 Karakalpak activists accused of taking part in the protests in Nukus were convicted, with 28 of them sentenced to prison terms of between five years and 11 years. Eleven defendants were handed parole-like sentences.

The violence forced Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev to make a rare about-face and scrap the proposal.

Tashkent has tried to have Urazbaev extradited from Kazakhstan, which ran into legal issues as he was no longer an Uzbek citizen.

However, on December 1, 2023, Urazbaev was officially informed that his Kazakh citizenship was annulled due to what Kazakh officials called "incorrect documents" presented when he applied for Kazakh citizenship.

The move raised Urazbaev’s worries about his safety and caused a deep depression which most likely led to the lethal heart attack, Muratbai says.

Karakalpaks are a Central Asian Turkic-speaking people. Their region used to be an autonomous area within Kazakhstan before becoming autonomous within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic in 1930 and then part of Uzbekistan in 1936.
Turkmenistan: Swap stop (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [1/9/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
And just like that, the gas swap arrangement between Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan has ground to a halt.

Under a November 2021 deal, the three countries are committed to a set-up wherein Turkmenistan delivers gas to Iran, which then pipes the same amount to Azerbaijan.

A government source in Baku has told the Trend news agency that the plan was for Azerbaijan to buy up to three billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan in 2024, but that the sides could not come to an agreement on the commercial terms.

The additional revelation, reported on January 7, that negotiations are ongoing, has come from sources at the National Iranian Gas Company, which is clearly interested in having the matter settled as soon as possible, since cold northeastern Iran regions are particularly reliant on Turkmen gas.

Only Amsterdam-based outlet Turkmen.news has put some firm figures on the disagreement at the heart of this impasse. The website’s unidentified sources claim that Ashgabat is indignant that Baku is seemingly unwilling to offer rates of more than the giveaway price of $140 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.

“Azerbaijani oil and gas company SOCAR then resells Turkmen gas [to third parties] at twice the price,” the website’s sources say.

Turkmen.news advances an additional and scarcely believable (and yet somehow credible) possibility: there is lack of Turkmen gas immediately available for export. The website attributes this state of affairs to corruption and mismanagement at the Turkmengaz state monopoly.

One especially alarming illustration of this was the accident that occurred last winter at the giant Galkynysh field that led to the temporary suspension of deliveries to Uzbekistan. An investigation reportedly later revealed that the incident was caused by technicians using low-quality chemicals that were not up to the job of insulating equipment from the effects of a cold snap.

As Turkmen.news describes the situation, lack of investment in decent infrastructure and poor staffing are a feature at Turkmengaz, not a bug.

Vienna-based Chronicles of Turkmenistan has offered a troubling explanation for the latter issue.

In line with presidential edicts to trim outgoings, workers are at present being laid off in numbers at government enterprises and institutions, the website reported on January 5. Turkmengaz, oil company Turkmenneft, and railways employees are in the firing line, as workers in the construction and healthcare sectors.

But there’s a twist, says Chronicles. Heads of department fire more people than is strictly required, and then solicit bribes from those wanting to fill vacated positions. Since unemployment is so rampant, there is little incentive for workers to step out of line and complain about improper and inefficient practices.

RFE/RL’s Turkmen service, Radio Azatlyk, reported on January 8 on how a growing number of police officers in the Mary province are quitting their jobs to try and find work abroad. A law enforcement source told Azatlyk that this trend has been fueled by poor working conditions and a culture of abusive management.

Every cloud, though. As Azatlyk’s source explains, the exodus is so great that the size of a bribe needed to get a job with the police has apparently now been halved to around 30,000 manat ($8,500 at the official rate, around $1,500 at black market rates).

Also going abroad for money this past week was ex-President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. The so-called National Leader – the de facto co-president – on January 4 embarked on a working visit to the United Arab Emirates to rattle the tin can. A government report on this visit identified investment in trade, finance and the energy sectors as priority areas for cooperation. Turkmenistan is supposedly also greatly interested in the development of green energy – an assertion fully belied by all available evidence.

But the visit ultimately produced almost nothing to hang one’s hat on, other than the announcement that regular scheduled flights between Ashgabat to Abu Dhabi were set to resume as of January 5.

Turkmenistan’s air connections are seeing some sign of life again.

An Italian travel website, The Flight Club, has reported that Turkmenistan Airlines will from March 6 start offering the Milan Malpensa to Ashgabat route. This flight is scheduled to enable passengers to then travel onward, again with Turkmenistan Airlines, from Ashgabat to Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam.

The national carrier is in the process of expanding its fleet. It said in a January 5 statement that it took delivery last month of one of the two Boeing-777-300ER 368-seater aircraft it bought recently. The other aircraft is due for imminent delivery. The appeal of these models is that they have a flight range of more than 11,000 kilometers. While this is far further than any route that the carrier services, it does mean that the plane can be run almost exclusively on cheaper, domestically produced aviation gasoline.

On January 5, Meteozhurnal, a weather-focused Russian website, carried details of a troubling spate of dust storms and other related anomalous meteorological events in Turkmenistan in October and November. In some instances, the phenomena were so sustained that they could be classed as hazardous weather events. Satellite imagery showed that “dust phenomena” were observed almost daily across multiple regions of Turkmenistan in November.

Turkmenistan is only one of many countries having to cope with this worsening problem and has every interest in working with the international community to address the fallout. As Feras Ziadat, technical officer at the Food and Agriculture Organization, told a UN conference on this subject in November: “Sand and dust storms … have become increasingly frequent and severe, having substantial transboundary impacts.”

“In source areas, they damage crops, affect livestock, and strip topsoil,” Ziadat said.

He then went on to talk, addressing a detail that should be of special concern to Turkmenistan, of the risk that sandstorms pose to “communications, power generation, transport, and supply chains.”

In the here and now, though, Turkmenistan’s authoritarian regime frets more about the dangers of the internet. At a Cabinet meeting on January 6, President Serdar Berdymukhamedov, the son of the former president, issued orders for the country’s cyber-defenses to be shored up. He was not specific about what concerns him.

Taking measures to ward off hackers and fraudsters is perfectly sensible, but it seems, judging by previous form, that bolstering internet censorship is top of Berdymukhamedov’s mind. As it is, most of the global internet is closed off to Turkmen netizens, VPNs are next to unusable, and connection speeds are dismal.
Following China’s Export of Sanctioned Goods Through Central Asia to Russia (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/9/2024 9:30 AM, Dilfuza Mirzakhmedova, Shakhriyor Ismailkhodjaev, and Kamila Fayzieva, 201K, Neutral]
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, and other countries around the world have imposed a wide range of sanctions on Russia, forcing Moscow to use Turkey and neighboring Central Asian countries to route trade of sanctioned goods.

Many countries did not join the sanctions against Russia outright, but nevertheless wish to avoid the risk of secondary sanctions. China in particular maintains strong ties with Russia, while seeking as much as possible to reduce the risk of secondary sanctions. Countries in Central Asia, with which China and Russia share a common border, have proved particularly useful in helping China trade with Russia indirectly.

Goods exported to Russia from China via Central Asia need not be weapons in order to contribute to Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. Without import streams of industrial goods via Central Asia, Moscow might be forced to make more stark “guns vs butter” tradeoffs. Re-export patterns thus undermine sanctions by allowing Russia flexibility to keep production lines in place for military goods.

China is one of the most important foreign trade partners for Central Asian countries, and over the past five years, imports from China to Central Asia have almost doubled. However, in 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, imports from China expanded dramatically. Over the same time period, Central Asian exports to Russia also grew at a marked pace.

From 2018 to 2019, imports from China to Central Asia grew 17 percent; they declined in 2020 due to the pandemic and then rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Then in 2022, there was a 44 percent increase in imports from China, with Kyrgyzstan’s share of those imports growing particularly quickly. According to Temur Umarov, fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, 2023 became a record year for trade turnover between Central Asian countries and China.

China’s surging exports to Central Asia are notable, since its overall world exports have not shown such strong growth, while Central Asia’s economic growth rates are in line with prior years.

In 2022, the volume of Central Asian exports to Russia increased by nearly a third. Kyrgyzstan’s share of total regional exports to Russia has increased by almost two and a half times, and exports from Uzbekistan by more than half. Kazakhstan also increased exports to Russia last year, but more modestly, by only a quarter. At the same time, Tajikistan’s exports to Russia have not changed, remaining close to zero.

Our hypothesis is that the growth in trade with Russia and China is related, and that it is associated with the re-export of Chinese goods to Russia, specifically in order to help China avoid Western sanctions on Russia.

In order to explore this link further, we reviewed the foreign trade of Central Asian countries using the online resource Trade Map, cross referencing top categories of goods in imports from China and exports to Russia, and noting which categories had seen striking growth from 2021 to 2022. Turkmenistan was excluded from this investigation due to the lack of available data.

In the case of Uzbekistan, two new categories appear in the list of top imports from China and exports to Russia for 2022: “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery;” and “electrical machinery and equipment.” The supply of “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery” from Uzbekistan to Russia increased by 264 percent, and electrical machinery and equipment by 150 percent. At the same time, the import of “nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery” from China to Uzbekistan increased by more than a third (134 percent) and electrical machinery and equipment almost by a quarter (124 percent). However, it should be taken into account that the absolute figures of imports of these goods from China significantly exceed exports to Russia.

Kyrgyzstan has four new categories present in both lists of imports from China and exports to Russia: “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machines;” “knitted fabrics;” “footwear articles;” and “various articles of base metals.” In particular, the export of “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machines” increased by 41,105 percent. However, cotton exports accounted for almost a quarter of last year’s growth in supplies to Russia, increasing by 7,564 percent. The 2021-2022 growth in “various articles of base metals” is particularly stark, with exports to Russia increasing 1,245 times. Curiously, “knitted fabrics” was the second fastest growing new category, increasing 411 times, with “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machines” growing 23 times, and “footwear articles,” by a factor of seven.

According to Saparbek Asanov, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s Association of Light Industry Enterprises, Legprom, this staggering growth in fabric exports can be linked to a surge in orders from Russian companies. These articles are not directly under sanctions, but according to Umarov, re-export trade to Russia does not only consist of sanctioned goods, but also goods whose availability may have been impacted by the decision of global brands to move out of the Russian market.

It is also possible that clothing supply chains in Russia have been affected by demand for military uniforms. Additionally, financial sanctions have compelled many Russian firms, which previously outsourced their manufacturing needs to other countries, to turn to Kyrgyzstan’s market. Kyrgyz garment manufacturers are not only fulfilling orders for external brands but are also exporting locally branded clothing and designs, marking a significant shift in the industry’s dynamics.

For Kazakhstan, “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machines,” as well as “electrical machinery and equipment” were also in the lists of both top 2022 imports from China and exports to Russia. This was also the case in 2021 — they are not new entries — but these categories have increased five times since 2021. “Iron and steel” is a new top category for 2022, and “inorganic chemicals,” as well as “non-railway vehicles” also showed noticeable increases. All of these categories might easily cover goods limited by sanctions and which can be used by the Russian military-industrial complex.

For Tajikistan in 2022, there were no groups of goods present simultaneously in the lists of imports from China and exports to Russia. This is consistent with the current understanding that Tajikistan plays a more limited role in China’s attempts to circumvent sanctions in its trade with Russia.

The trade turnover of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan with both China and Russia increased significantly in 2022 from 2021. A comparison of imports from China and exports to Russia over time shows that several categories of goods are responsible for driving this growth. The category of “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery” is present in all three countries’ lists of top imports from China and exports to Russia. This is a category that has grown 553.34 percent, 2,342.56 percent, and 264.18 percent, from 2021-2022 in the cases of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, respectively. The same category grew only 8.62 percent and 24.24 percent, between 2018-2019, for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, respectively, and declined 75.44 percent in Kyrgyzstan. These shifts strongly suggest a link in 2021-2022 growth with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions.

According to Umarov, in the coming years it will “become more and more difficult for Central Asian states to help Russians circumvent sanctions,” however, much will depend on how the EU and U.S. react. Umarov said that “Western countries are not ignoring this trend,” and that trade between Russia and Central Asia has already seen a slight decrease in 2023.

However, this decrease is relative, and according to Umarov, re-export patterns may increasingly focus “on products that are not specifically under sanctions, but which are unavailable in Russia” due to global brands’ avoidance of the Russian market.
Indo-Pacific
India-Maldives War of Words on Social Media Triggers Diplomatic Row (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [1/9/2024 9:39 AM, Sudha Ramachandran, 201K, Neutral]
The already troubled India-Maldives relationship is under fresh strain following a spat over disparaging remarks made by Maldivian ministers about India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media.

Although the Maldivian government under newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu was swift in distancing itself from the offensive remarks — its Foreign Ministry issued a statement that the remarks reflect “opinions [that] are personal and do not represent the views of the Government of Maldives” — and suspended three deputy ministers who made the comments, India was not appeased.

A day after the ministers were suspended, India’s Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Maldivian envoy in New Delhi to express its concern over the ministers’ comments. In a tit-for-tat move, the Maldivian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Indian high commissioner in Male.

The war of words that erupted on social media has escalated into a diplomatic row.

It all began on January 4, when the Indian prime minister, who was visiting India’s Lakshadweep Islands, made a series of posts on X, formerly Twitter, praising the “stunning beauty of the islands.”

“For those who wish to embrace the adventurer in them, Lakshadweep has to be on your list,” he said.

An archipelago of 36 islands in the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep lies off the coast of the southern Indian state of Kerala. To its west is the Maldives, an archipelago of around 1,192 islands. Both Lakshadweep and the Maldives are tourist destinations, although the latter is far more developed to attract high-end tourists.

Modi made no mention of the Maldives in his posts.

However, within a few hours of his posts on Lakshadweep, some of his supporters claimed on social media that his visit to the island chain would promote tourism there, even as an alternative tourist destination to the Maldives. Some indulged in name-calling too.

An account under the name “Mr Sinha,” who describes himself on X as an “Indian Political commentator,” “Hindu Rights Activist” and “Proud Bhartiya [Indian]” lauded Modi on the “excellent move,” which would boost tourism in Lakshadweep.

“It’s a big setback to the new Chinese puppet gvt [government] of Maldives,” he wrote on X, in a post viewed 3.2 million times.

Since Muizzu took over the Maldivian presidency, he has taken several decisions that have contributed to the perception in India that he is pro-China.

A wave of posts by Indian and Maldivian nationals, many of them supporters of the Modi and Muizzu governments, respectively, swept social media. Soon three deputy ministers in the Maldivian Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Art – Maryam Shiuna, Malsha Shareef, and Mahzoom Majid – waded into the mud-slinging match.

In a now-deleted post on X, Shiuna mocked Modi as a “diver with a life jacket,” and described him as a “clown,” “terrorist” and a “puppet of Israel” and also compared India to cow dung.

That raised hackles in India.

Meanwhile, the situation on social media escalated with Indians and Maldivians lobbing insults at each other. It did not stop there. Indian film stars, cricketers, and others weighed in with posts urging Indians to boycott Maldives and visit Indian tourist destinations. Soon #BoycottMaldives was trending on social media.

It looks like the online war of words could have implications that go beyond social media.

Tourism is the Maldives’ largest industry, contributing to 28 percent of its GDP and over 60 percent of its foreign exchange earnings. According to recent data released by the Maldivian tourism ministry, of the 1.8 million foreign tourists who visited the Maldives in 2023, 11.2 percent were from India, followed closely by Russia (11.1 percent) and China (10 percent).

So far, one major online travel booking portal – EaseMyTrip – has suspended the sale of flight tickets to the Maldives. A statement from the Aviation and Tourism Committee of the Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has called on tourism trade organizations to “stop promoting Maldives in view of the anti-India feelings expressed by the ministers of Maldives.” It has also urged airline companies to suspend operations to the Maldives. So far, no Indian carrier has announced any changes to its flights to the Maldives, although bookings are reported to have dropped since the controversy erupted.

Interestingly, online searches for Lakshadweep have surged since the crisis erupted.

Indo-Maldivian relations were strong for decades. Economic and security cooperation thrived; thousands of Maldivians have studied in India and come to the country for medical treatment. India has always been the Maldives’ first responder in times of crisis, whether during an attempted coup in 1988, the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, the water shortage in 2014, or the COVID-19 pandemic.

Relations were strained in the 2013-2018 period when the Maldives’ foreign policy under President Abdulla Yameen took a distinctly pro-China tilt. That tilt was corrected under former President Ibrahim Solih, who adopted an “India First” foreign policy. That provided fodder for the opposition-led “India Out” campaign. During his election campaign, Muizzu fed the anti-India sentiment in the Maldives with pledges to oust Indian security personnel from the archipelago.

Since his inauguration in November, Muizzu has called on India to withdraw its military personnel from the Maldives. His government has also decided against renewing a 2019 hydrographic survey agreement with India. Unlike his predecessors, who would visit India first after assuming the presidential mantle, Muizzu chose Turkey for his first official visit. He has ignored New Delhi so far.

Adding salt to India’s injuries, Muizzu headed to China, even as the row over the disparaging remarks raged on social media. He is reported to have asked the Chinese to step up tourist numbers to the Maldives. Several investment and other deals are likely to be signed during his current visit to Beijing.

While posts on social media fueled the ongoing row, neither Modi nor Muizzu can absolve themselves of responsibility for the crisis. While Muizzu is guilty of fueling anti-India sentiment in Maldives, Modi has done little to rein in his supporters from trolling his critics.

Given the circumstances, the latest India-Maldives row was waiting to happen.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/9/2024 9:22 AM, 226.8K followers, 30 retweets, 175 likes]
The Chargé d’affaires of Norway for Afghanistan, Mr. Paul Klouman Bekken, called on the Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Alhaj Sher Muhammad Abbas Stanekzai. During meeting, Mr. Bekken acknowledged acknowledged progress in stability, security & economy,

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/9/2024 9:22 AM, 226.8K followers, 2 retweets, 10 likes]
& appreciated efforts in managing & facilitating return of refugees. Calling the recent achievements in Afghanistan self-evident & unprecedented, DFM Stanekzai highlighted that IEA professionally managed the returnee process, provided timely transportation, shelter, food,

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[1/9/2024 9:22 AM, 226.8K followers, 2 retweets, 12 likes]
clothing & health services. However, there remains a need for further international corporation. Along with the aforementioned topics, views were also exchanged on other bilateral and regional issues.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[1/10/2024 2:31 AM, 62.5K followers, 3 retweets, 2 likes]
“I know she is being tortured,” Haidari says, as tears start to fall. “We know the Taliban. The Taliban have been violent for as long as we have known them.” Exclusive: Women kidnapped, Australian’s family abandoned | The Saturday Paper https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2023/12/23/exclusive-women-kidnapped-australians-family-abandoned

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[1/10/2024 3:00 AM, 168K followers]
#AfghanFund Report: #StateDept unaware that one of the individuals it selected to be a fiduciary of DAB’s assets was fired from a previous position for misrepresenting his credentials, raising questions about the adequacy of #StateDept’s vetting process https://sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslearned/SIGAR-24-07-LL.pdf#page=4

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[1/9/2024 11:50 AM, 168K followers, 2 retweets, 5 likes]
One of the Fund’s trustees also member of DAB’s governing body, Supreme Council. It’s not clear whether this constitutes a conflict of interest in the form of competing fiduciary responsibilities. Unclear who determines whether a conflict of interest exists/how it’s defined
Pakistan
Spokesperson Pakistan MoFA
@ForeignOfficePk
[1/9/2024 10:21 AM, 466.6K followers, 24 retweets, 89 likes]
Foreign Secretary of Pakistan @syrusqazi visited the Embassy of Iran in Islamabad to convey Pakistan’s profound condolences to the Iranian Government and people on the terrorist attack in #Kerman. Signing the condolence book, the FS reiterated Pakistan’s strong condemnation of the terror attack and expressed Pakistan’s solidarity with Iran in this hour of national grief.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/9/2024 11:00 AM, 41.5K followers, 57 retweets, 185 likes]
Pakistan’s judiciary has had its occasional moments of independence, even brilliance -- but overall it’s a judiciary that through the decades has functioned in service to the establishment.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/9/2024 12:49 PM, 41.5K followers, 7 retweets, 19 likes]
How to judge the judiciary’s decisions, then, even when they are legally sound but politically motivated? It tells you that this is a legal system that values expediency over principle; it’s unreliable.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/9/2024 9:25 AM, 41.5K followers, 30 retweets, 140 likes]
There’s a palpable lack of excitement about Pakistan’s elections, now less than a month away -- among those running for election, among the Pakistani population, among those watching from elsewhere. It goes to show just how much damage has been done to Pakistan’s democracy.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[1/9/2024 9:30 AM, 41.5K followers, 1 retweet, 14 likes]
Contrast this with 2008, 2013, and 2018 (despite the uneven playing field in that year). I’d argue that this makes this election even more important -- how it goes will tell us whether there’s anything to be salvaged of Pakistan’s democracy.

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[1/9/2024 7:11 AM, 8.3M followers, 424 retweets, 1.9K likes]
Some paid agents of an intelligence agency who have recently joined PPP & IPP are trying to establish my links with Dr Allah Nazar Baloch. Here is a letter written against me by Dr Allah Nazar. State and non-state actors should come up with something new. https://baluchsarmachar.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/an-open-letter-to-hamid-mir-geo-tv-by-dr-allah-nazar/

Ashok Swain
@ashoswai
[1/9/2024 2:50 PM, 608.7K followers, 3.8K retweets, 10K likes]
Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, Imran Khan is in jail but again arrested today for 7th time - this time possibly on terror charges. Desperation of Pakistani Army Chief is making Imran Khan more popular!
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/10/2024 2:14 AM, 94.4M followers, 900 retweets, 2.6K likes]
The @VibrantGujarat Global Summit has played a crucial role in drawing investments and propelling the state’s development.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/9/2024 11:12 AM, 94.4M followers, 2.2K retweets, 12K likes]
Heartiest congratulations to my friend @tsheringtobgay and the People’s Democratic Party for winning the parliamentary elections in Bhutan. Look forward to working together again to further strengthen our unique ties of friendship and cooperation.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[1/9/2024 7:39 AM, 94.4M followers, 3.4K retweets, 14K likes]
The @VibrantGujarat Global Trade Show was inaugurated in the august presence of Presidents @JoseRamosHorta1 and Nyusi. This trade show showcases the innovation of various companies and the investment potential in Gujarat.

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[1/9/2024 8:57 AM, 261.4K followers, 600 retweets, 2K likes]
The three ministers in the Maldives posted derogatory comments against India, Indians and Modi, but Indian media outlets are only referring to their remarks against Modi, as if comparing India with cow dung or insulting Indian tourists and Indians generally is not newsworthy!
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[1/10/2024 2:01 AM, 634.9K followers, 6 retweets, 61 likes]
The winning candidates of Bangladesh Awami League in the 12th national polls has taken oath today as the Members of Parliament. #12thNationalParliament #AwamiLeague #SheikhHasina #Bangladesh

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/9/2024 11:03 PM, 634.9K followers, 15 retweets, 45 likes]
Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the President of Bangladesh Awami League #SheikhHasina along with the central leaders of the party have paid rich tributes to the Father of the Nation #Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman today marking the historic #HomecomingDay. #10thJanuary

Awami League
@albd1971
[1/9/2024 9:40 AM, 634.9K followers, 65 retweets, 172 likes]
Ambassadors of @OIC_OCI countries in Bangladesh have paid a courtesy call to HPM #SheikhHasina today and congratulated her for winning the national polls for fourth straight time. They expressed their eagerness to bolster the bilateral ties and development partnership with #Bangladesh. #Election2024 #BangladeshPolls

Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP
@bdbnp78
[1/10/2024 12:46 AM, 46.7K followers, 19 retweets, 91 likes]
Turnout was low after voters apparently heeded an opposition call to stay away. Slum dwellers were paid 500Tk (US$4.50) and a “biryani meal” to stay outside the polling station for the entire day to help the optics of a busy election. #ShamEelection

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/9/2024 7:51 AM, 203.8K followers, 32 retweets, 136 likes]
After a highly controversial election, what’s next for Bangladesh PM Hasina? In this new piece for @TheQuint I lay out her immediate challenges at home and abroad, with particular emphasis on security (internal and external) and foreign policy. https://www.thequint.com/opinion/bangladesh-election-whats-next-for-sheikh-hasina-awami-league-bnp-boycott-india-us-china

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/9/2024 2:30 PM, 203.8K followers, 17 retweets, 120 likes]
Among the first governments to congratulate Sheikh Hasina:
Japan*
Thailand
Vietnam
Argentina
Indonesia
South Korea
Brunei Darussalam
Malaysia
Egypt
Algeria
Kuwait
Libya
Iran
Iraq
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Palestine
*Had criticized BD’s 2018 election

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/9/2024 2:30 PM, 203.8K followers, 4 retweets, 21 likes]
With some interesting exceptions, most of them are from the Global South. Congratulating her essentially means accepting the election and its result. https://www.newagebd.net/article/222372/envoys-of-different-countries-congratulate-sheikh-hasina

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/9/2024 1:12 PM, 203.8K followers, 30 retweets, 133 likes]
EU statement on Bangladesh election is fairly similar to the US one, though a bit stronger in tone. Has some strong-ish language on repression, eg detention of opposition figures is “highly concerning.” Suggests but doesn’t say election wasn’t free & fair.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[1/9/2024 1:15 PM, 203.8K followers, 4 retweets, 27 likes]
The last sentence suggests the EU may link considerations about Bangladesh securing GSP+ trade privileges to its performance on rights and democracy.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/9/2024 11:24 PM, 105.9K followers, 101 retweets, 117 likes]
H.E. President Dr @MMuizzu and H.E. First Lady Sajidha Mohamed explored the Museum of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The museum displays the profound historical journey of the CCP.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[1/9/2024 7:31 AM, 105.9K followers, 181 retweets, 236 likes]
H.E. President Dr @MMuizzu and H.E. First Lady Sajidha Mohamed arrive in Beijing today, at the invitation of the President of China, H.E. Xi Jinping. This is their first state visit.

Moosa Zameer
@MoosaZameer
[1/9/2024 8:26 AM, 12.1K followers, 92 retweets, 159 likes]
Arrived in Beijing with President Dr @MMuizzu in his ongoing State Visit to China. We are set for an intense schedule with high-level bilateral meetings and discussions in the coming three days. Our focus is on conveying the Government’s priorities and exploring avenues for enhanced collaboration with China.

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[1/9/2024 5:40 AM, 4.7K followers, 2 retweets, 11 likes]
President Ranil Wickremesinghe expressed commitment to advancing the concept of "Ceylonese" to a "Sri Lankan identity," initially advocated by Sir Ponnambalam Arunachalam for a liberated nation. Emphasizing the goal to address all war-related issues by 2025, the President conveyed these sentiments during the 100th death anniversary ceremony of Sir Arunachalam. The event, held at the Presidential Secretariat premises, included the President laying floral tributes and engaging in a friendly conversation with Sir Arunachalam’s family members. Web Link : https://bit.ly/41QId2K Facebook Link: https://cutt.ly/hwH1jfwv
Central Asia
Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[1/9/2024 3:23 AM, 28.7K followers, 2 retweets, 1 like]
Another strike in west #Kazakhstan, this one at a gas plant construction site in Atyrau (mostly, strikes tend to centre on Mangystau Region)

{End of Report}
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