epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Thursday, February 8, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Iranian Envoy To Kabul Sees Afghanistan As Part Of Tehran’s ‘Axis Of Resistance’ (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/7/2024 2:28 PM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Iran’s special envoy to Afghanistan and the head of its embassy in Kabul says Tehran includes the war-torn country as part of is "axis of resistance" -- a loose-knit network of Iranian-backed proxies and militant groups that aid it in opposing the West, Arab foes, and primarily Israel.

Active in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, the network allows Iran to create chaos in enemy territory while maintaining a position of plausible deniability that it is directly involved.

Speaking on Tehran’s Ofogh television network on February 6, Hassan Kazemi Qomi said that under the right conditions, more than one brigade of "martyrdom-seeking" forces could go to Gaza from Afghanistan to support Hamas, another member of the axis which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and European Union.

Amid intense fighting between Hamas and Israel, Iran has been increasingly vocal about the prospect of additional firepower entering the fray to score a victory for the so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel.

"In what we see in Afghanistan today, it is apparent that Afghanistan is part of the ‘axis of resistance.’ If there is a situation and a necessity, more than one brigade of ‘martyrdom-seeking’ forces can go to Gaza in support of Gaza," Qomi said during the interview.

RFE/RL sought comments from officials of the Taliban-led government, but spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid did not respond to the inquiries.

"Martyrdom-seeking" forces often refer to those who carry out suicide attacks in Afghanistan and other countries. The Taliban, which used such forces in its nearly two-decade-long war against NATO-led forces and the security forces of the former republic, is known for this tactic.

Mujahid told RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi in January 2021 that a "martyrdom-seeking" battalion would be incorporated into the special forces of the Defense Ministry run by the Taliban.

Aziz Maarij, a former Afghan diplomat in Iran, said Qomi’s statement may be an attempt by Iran to drag Afghanistan into its sphere by involving it in the Gaza conflict.

"The innocent Muslims being killed by Israeli oppression in Gaza is a tragedy, but this war is political, competitive, and proxy, in which Iran is involved. It seeks revenge against America and to challenge its rivals by dragging Afghanistan into these issues," Maarij told Radio Azadi.

While Qomi did not specify who or which group could send a "martyrdom-seeking" brigade to Gaza, Iran has been previously accused of sending Afghans to fight in its proxy wars.

Recently, some Iranian media reported the death of Seyed Hamzah Alavi, born in Afghanistan’s Parwan Province and a veteran fighter of the Fatemiyoun Division in Syria.

The Fatemiyoun Division is considered a branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force, which has recruited thousands of Afghan citizens to fight in Syria.

Iran and Israel have been engaged in a yearslong shadow war. Tensions have been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas.
Pakistan
A Polarized Pakistan Goes to the Polls With the Result All but Certain (New York Times)
New York Times [2/8/2024 1:08 AM, Christina Goldbaum, 831K, Neutral]
Pakistanis have labeled it a “selection” — not an election. Human rights monitors have condemned it as neither free nor fair.

As voters headed to the polls on Thursday, the influence of Pakistan’s powerful military and the turbulent state of its politics were on full display. Few doubted which party would come out on top, a reflection of the generals’ ultimate hold on Pakistan’s troubled democracy.

But the military is facing new challenges to its authority from a discontented public, making this an especially fraught moment in the nation’s history.

The tension was underlined on Thursday as Pakistan’s Interior Ministry announced that it was suspending mobile phone service across the country because of the security situation. Some analysts in Pakistan cast it as an effort to keep opposition voters from getting information or coordinating activities.

The election was taking place in the shadow of a monthslong military campaign to gut the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, a former international cricket star and populist leader who was ousted by Parliament in 2022 after falling out with the generals.

The crackdown is the latest dizzying swerve in the country’s roller-coaster politics.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or P.M.L.N., the party of the three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, is expected to claim victory in Thursday’s vote. Mr. Sharif himself was ousted when he fell out of favor with the military in 2017, and Mr. Khan, with the military’s support, became prime minister a year later.

Now it is Mr. Khan who is sitting in jail after a bitter split with the military over its political control, while Mr. Sharif is apparently seen by the generals as the lone figure in Pakistan having the stature to compete with the widely popular Mr. Khan.

Voters will choose members of provincial legislatures and the country’s Parliament, which will appoint the next prime minister. It is seen as unlikely that any party will win an outright majority, meaning that the party with the largest share of seats would form a coalition government. Officially, this will be only the third democratic transition between civilian governments in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people.

The military has ruled Pakistan directly through various coups or indirectly under civilian governments ever since the country gained independence in 1947. It has often meddled in election cycles to pave the way for its preferred candidates and to winnow the field of their competitors. But the military has used an especially heavy hand ahead of this vote, analysts say, a reflection of the growing anti-military fervor in the country stoked by Mr. Khan.

The crackdown has drawn widespread condemnation from local and international human rights groups. On Tuesday, the United Nations’ top human rights body expressed concern over “the pattern of harassment, arrests and prolonged detentions of leaders.”

“We deplore all acts of violence against political parties and candidates, and urge the authorities to uphold the fundamental freedoms necessary for an inclusive and meaningful democratic process,” Liz Throssell, spokeswoman for the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, said at a news conference.

The intimidation campaign has come at a particularly turbulent moment in Pakistan. For months after Mr. Khan was removed from office, he railed against the country’s generals and accused them of orchestrating his ouster — a claim they reject. His direct criticism of the military was unheard-of in Pakistan. It inspired his supporters to come out in droves to vent their anger at the military for its role in his removal.

“Imran Khan is a clearest case of political engineering gone wrong; the army became the victim of its own engineering,” said Zafarullah Khan, an Islamabad-based analyst. “Now civil-military relations are being written on the streets. This is unique in Pakistan.”

After violent protests broke out in May targeting military installations, the generals responded in force. Leaders of Mr. Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or P.T.I., were arrested and ordered to denounce the party. P.T.I. supporters were also swept up by the police. Mr. Khan was sentenced to a total of 34 years in prison after being convicted in four cases and barred from running in the election.

The authorities also allowed Mr. Khan’s rival Mr. Sharif, who had been living in exile for years, to return to the country. He quickly became a front-runner in the race after Pakistani courts overturned the corruption convictions that led to his ouster in 2017 and reversed his disqualification from competing in elections.

The military also sought a détente with Mr. Sharif, who has a loyal base of supporters in the country’s most populous province, Punjab, analysts say. The other major political party in Pakistan, the Pakistan People’s Party, or P.P.P., does not have nearly the same national appeal as P.M.L.N.

Mr. Sharif built his reputation on reviving the country’s economy — which is currently suffering double-digit inflation — and building megaprojects like superhighways. He has also pushed for more civilian control of the government and had each of his terms cut short after falling out with the military — a history that raises doubts about how long this latest rapprochement with the generals will last.

The turmoil has laid out the dismal state of Pakistani politics, a winner-take-all game dominated by a handful of political dynasties and ultimately controlled by the military. In the country’s 76-year history, no prime minister has ever completed a term in office. This election is also the first in decades in which no party has campaigned on a platform of reforming that entrenched system.

“All mainstream political parties have accepted the military’s role in politics; there is no challenge,” said Mustafa Nawaz Kokhar, a former senator with the Pakistan People’s Party and a vocal critic of the military, who is running in the election as an independent candidate in Islamabad.
Pakistan Suspends Cellphone Service as Voting Begins in Turbulent Election (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [2/8/2024 1:19 AM, Saeed Shah, 810K, Neutral]
Pakistani authorities on Thursday suspended mobile-phone services across the country, citing recent terrorist attacks, as voting began in an election that is expected to test a fragile democracy.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, one of the country’s most popular politicians, is in jail, as are many members and supporters of his opposition party. Another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, is back from exile and his party is widely seen as the frontrunner in the election.

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party says it has been systematically handicapped in the election campaign, with restrictions on its ability to hold rallies and its candidates and workers facing arrest. It blames the military for the crackdown.

Pakistan’s military has admitted to interfering in the country’s politics in the past, but says it no longer does so.

Civil-society groups and political analysts say the hurdles faced by the party have cast doubt among voters about the fairness of the election in a country that is in its longest period of elected rule, after decades when civilian governments were disrupted by military intervention.

More than 600,000 members of the army, paramilitary and police are being deployed for voter security during the polling, the government has said.

On Wednesday, two bombings at the election offices of two candidates in the remote western province of Balochistan killed at least 22 people, local authorities said. The Islamic State militant group claimed responsibility for both blasts.

Thursday’s phone-service outage will make it harder to monitor polls and flag concerns, party and civil-society activists say.

At the last election, in 2018, the Election Commission’s vote-counting computer system went down for hours, in what many believed was an attempt at manipulating the outcome. The commission said at the time that the outage was because of a technical fault.

Sikandar Sultan Raja, the country’s chief election commissioner, said Thursday that the system for tabulating the vote doesn’t depend on phone or internet signal, and won’t be affected.

“Elections will be free and fair,” said Raja. “Voters will be free to cast their vote for their chosen candidate.”

However, cellphone service is required for people to use the commission’s text-message-based service to check the location of the polling station they must use. Many voters are finding that their registered voting location has changed in this election, groups monitoring the polls said.

Khan’s party condemned the suspension and appealed to the public to remove passwords from their home Wi-Fi and elsewhere to allow those nearby to access the internet. “This is a cowardly attempt by those in power to stifle dissent, manipulate the election’s outcome, and infringe upon the rights of the Pakistani people,” the party said.

Khan was arrested in May and is barred from running. Just days ahead of the vote, he was convicted and sentenced on charges of disclosing official secrets, corruption and marrying in contravention of Islamic law.

Ghulam Mujtaba, the owner of a shop selling yogurt in the northern city of Rawalpindi who supports Khan, said he believed that the authorities were trying to ensure the election of Sharif.

“They are trying to disillusion us, scare us, but the youth has learned the truth,” said Mujtaba, a 45-year-old shopkeeper. “The youth aren’t going to get scared.”

Sarwar Bari, national coordinator at Pattan, which is part of a network of nongovernmental organizations monitoring the vote, compared sentiment around the election to a poll in 1977 when a landslide victory by one party was followed by rigging allegations and then a coup.

“There is a lot of anger,” said Bari.

Many voters are hoping that the polls will restore some stability to the nuclear-armed country, which has seen political and economic turmoil since Khan was ousted as prime minister by a parliamentary vote in 2022, following tensions with the powerful military over his governance.

Pakistan has had a caretaker government in place since August to oversee the period leading up to the election. Before that, a short-term administration was put in place following Khan’s dismissal from office in 2022.

Sharif is pledging to revive economic growth, while the pitch from Khan’s party is fighting corruption and the dynastic politics of the other parties.

“Don’t let the fraud come back to power,” Sharif said of his opponent, at his last rally Tuesday, in a muted campaign of short speeches that kicked off just three weeks before the vote.

Sharif, a three-time prime minister, returned to the political fray after courts overturned the corruption convictions that had sent him into exile.

But it is unclear that Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N will win a clear majority, making it likely that another potentially shaky ruling coalition lies ahead. That could make it harder for the next government to put a faltering economy on a more solid footing and provide people with a respite from inflation running at 30%.

If Sharif’s party has to rule in a coalition, analysts say, the prime ministership could be passed to Sharif’s brother and loyal lieutenant, Shehbaz Sharif, who is considered better suited to working with other parties.

A third key contender is the Pakistan Peoples Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who heads a party founded by his grandfather, the prime minister executed after the 1977 coup.

Khan, in a message delivered from his jail cell through his lawyer, has urged his supporters to remain peaceful, but to go out to vote. A high turnout could favor Khan.
Pakistan Cites Terrorism for Shutting Mobile Phone Services on Election Day (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [2/7/2024 10:57 PM, Ismail Dilawar, Betsy Jones, and Kamran Haider, 5543K, Negative]
Pakistan suspended mobile phone services nationwide Thursday as voters began casting ballots in a general election, saying the measure was an attempt to maintain order ahead of expected turmoil around the controversial polls.

“Given recent surge in terrorist incidents, it has been decided to shut mobile services nationwide temporarily to maintain the law and order situation and tackle threats,” the nation’s interior ministry said in a statement issued just before polling centers opened at 8 a.m. local time.

The move comes less than 24 hours after two bomb blasts targeting the offices of different political leaders killed at least 20 people in Pakistan’s northwest Balochistan province. There have been 217 militant attacks since the elections were announced in early November, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

The government didn’t say how long the services would be stopped. Some people’s phone services were still working after the announcement.

Polls close at 5 p.m. in the controversial election where the most popular politician, Imran Khan, has been sidelined, sent to prison on corruption and other charges. With Khan out of the race, the most likely politicians to lead the country are three-time former premier Nawaz Sharif, his brother, Shehbaz, or Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the 35-year-old scion of the Bhutto dynasty.

Whoever takes power will have to fix an economy with a heavy debt load and inflation still running at 28%. The current IMF program, Pakistan’s 23rd since independence in 1947, expires in March.

The new prime minister has to navigate complex ties with the US and China, rising terrorism in Pakistan and tense relations with neighbors including India, Afghanistan and Iran. The Sharifs or Bhutto will likely be friendlier to the US than Khan, who drew closer to China during his time as premier and accused Washington of conspiring with Pakistan’s powerful military generals to oust him in April 2022.

Whoever wins will also need to work with the generals, who have ruled directly or behind the scenes for much of Pakistan’s modern history. The army, which has a strong influence over foreign policy, security and — increasingly — the economy, is widely seen by analysts as favoring Nawaz Sharif.

“Whoever comes to power will not have much role in the country’s foreign policy,” said Shaista Tabassum, dean of arts faculty and the former head of the international relations department at the University of Karachi. “Their focus will only be on domestic policies.”

Investors have been positive on Pakistan’s markets since the country clinched the nine-month IMF bailout in late June. Pakistan’s dollar bonds have rallied, gaining 9% last month and making them among the best performers in the world. They returned almost 100% in 2023. The benchmark stock index has climbed more than 50%.

S&P Global Ratings said this week a government with popular support and the ability to push through economic reforms will help Pakistan get an upgrade to a B rating from CCC+ and give it a better chance of securing more financing from the IMF.

Top business leaders and political commentators say the most likely election outcome is a hung parliament and a coalition government. There are 266 directly contested seats up for grabs in the National Assembly, Pakistan’s lower house, meaning a party or coalition would need 134 seats to form a majority. Any party that wins about 90 seats would be in the driving seat to begin negotiations to head a government, analysts say.

A Gallup Pakistan survey published in January showed Nawaz Sharif gaining ground on Khan, who received three new jail sentences recently. Sharif returned from exile last year under a deal that analysts said was probably approved by the military. He pledges to boost infrastructure spending and cut inflation, which is running at the fastest pace in Asia.

Bhutto is banking on his relative youth and family history to draw voters in a country where people aged 18 to 35 account for more than 40% of the electorate. Both his mother, Benazir Bhutto, and grandfather, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, served as prime minister. Benazir was assassinated while Zulfikar was executed after a military coup.

Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is backing more than 200 independent candidates after the authorities prevented the party from fielding them under its name and took away its coveted cricket bat symbol, which had helped illiterate voters choose them in the past. It’s unclear what will happen if they win a large number of seats.

Whoever comes to power will be keenly aware that they can also fall out of favor with a military that analysts say is increasingly assertive behind the scenes. No prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term in Pakistan’s 77-year history.

“All the last prime ministers thought they were in charge until they got kicked out,” said Ahmad Yunas Samad, a professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Sciences.
Pakistan votes for a new parliament as militant attacks surge and jailed leader’s party cries foul (AP)
AP [2/7/2024 11:14 PM, Munir Ahmed and Riazat Butt, 22K, Negative]
Pakistanis braved cold winter weather and the threat of violence to vote for a new parliament Thursday a day after twin bombings claimed at least 30 lives in the worst election-related violence ahead of the contested elections.

Tens of thousands of police and paramilitary forces have been deployed at polling stations to ensure security. Still, on the eve of the election, a pair of bombings at election offices in restive southwestern Baluchistan province killed at least 30 people and wounded more than two dozen others.

The balloting has also been marred by allegations from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan that its candidates were denied a fair chance at campaigning. The cricket star-turned-Islamist politician — ousted in a no-confidence vote in parliament in 2022 — is behind bars and banned from running, though he still commands a massive following. However, it’s unclear if his angry and disillusioned supporters will turn up at the polls in great numbers.

The election comes at a critical time for this nuclear-armed nation, an unpredictable Western ally bordering Afghanistan, China, India and Iran — a region rife with hostile boundaries and tense relations. Pakistan’s next government will face huge challenges, from containing unrest, overcoming an intractable economic crisis to stemming illegal migration.

Fazal Hayyat, 38, a driver, was one of the first voters in the northwestern city of Peshawar. “I am happy that I became the first one to exercise the right to vote at a polling station,” he told reporters.

Sikandar Sultan Raja, the head of the Election Commission of Pakistan, said the polling began across the country despite Wednesday’s bombings in Baluchistan. “We will ensure the holding of free and fair elections,” he said. “People should vote for the candidates of their choice without any fear,.”

International observers are also voting polling stations after being given permission by Islamabad.

People in Pakistan’s major cities, including Lahore, Karachi, Quetta and Multan, were lining up at polling stations to cast vote. Former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also went to a polling station in Lahore to cast his vote. He Wednesday night told a the Geo news channel that his brother Nawaz Sharif will be their candidate for the office of prime minister if his part gets majority in the parliament after the vote.

The weather on voting day was cold but clear. Mobile phone service was suspended after the previous day’s bombings, leaving people unable to talk to relatives who went to cast ballots and political parties unable to contact supporters. The statement from Pakistan’s Interior Ministry said the decision was made to maintain law and order. It did not say when the suspension would be lifted.

As many as 44 political parties are vying for a share of the 266 seats that are up for grabs in the National Assembly, or the lower house of parliament. An additional 70 seats are reserved for women and minorities in the 336-seat house.

After the election, the new parliament will choose the country’s next prime minister, and the deep political divisions make a coalition government seem more likely. Separately, elections are also taking place Thursday for the nation’s four provincial assemblies.

The last time parliamentary elections were held in 2018, when Khan came to power, a little more than half of the country’s electorate of some 127 million voters cast ballots. If no single party wins a simple majority, the first-placed gets a chance to form a coalition government, relying on allies in the house.

The top contender is the Pakistan Muslim League party of three-time former Prime Minister Sharif who returned to the country last October after four years of self-imposed exile abroad to avoid serving prison sentences at home. Within weeks of his return, his convictions were overturned, leaving him free to seek a fourth term in office.

With his archrival Khan sidelined and in prison, Sharif seems to have a pretty straight path to the premiership, backed by his younger brother, former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is likely to play an important role in any Sharif-led Cabinet.

The Pakistan People’s Party is a strong contender, with a power base in the south, and is led by a rising star in national politics — Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the son of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

The Sharifs and Bhutto-Zardari are traditional rivals but have joined forces against Khan in the past, and Bhutto-Zardari served as foreign minister until last August, during Shehbaz Sharif’s term as premier.

If Khan’s supporters stay away from the polls, analysts predict the race will come down to the parties of Nawaz Sharif and Bhutto-Zardari, both eager to keep Khan’s party out of the picture. As Bhutto-Zardari is unlikely to secure the premiership on his own, he could still be part of a Sharif-led coalition government.

For Khan, convicted on charges of graft, revealing state secrets and breaking marriage laws — and sentenced to three, 10, 14 and seven years, to be served concurrently — the vote is a stark reversal of fortunes from the last election when he became premier.

Candidates from Khan’s party have been forced to run as independents after the Supreme Court and Election Commission said they can’t use the party symbol — a cricket bat on voting slips — to help illiterate voters find them on the ballots.

The undoing of Khan and the resurrection of the Sharif political dynasty have given the impression of a predetermined outcome, and “it may be too late to change that perception,” according to Farzana Shaikh, an associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House.

On Tuesday, the United Nation’s top human rights body warned of a “pattern of harassment” against members of Khan’s party, which claims it was subjected to a “reign of terror” and that it has been prevented from holding hold rallies like Sharif’s party. Authorities deny the allegations.

Pakistanis, like people in many other impoverished nations, grapple with sustained high inflation, rising poverty levels, daily gas outages and hourslong electricity blackouts.

Since Khan’s ouster, Pakistan has relied on bailouts to resuscitate its spiraling economy, with a $3 billion package from the International Monetary Fund and wealthy allies like China and Saudi Arabia jumping in with cash and loans.
Millions Of Voters In Pakistan Head To Polls For Parliamentary Elections Amid Surge In Violence, Economic And Political Woes (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/8/2024 3:30 AM, Staff, 235K, Neutral]
Pakistanis flocked to the polls on February 8 for parliamentary elections that are taking place with the country embroiled in an upsurge of violence as well as political and economic turmoil.

The vote, which opened at 8 a.m. local time, is taking place one day after election-related violence killed nearly 30 people in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan Province and with inflation running at close to 30 percent and former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, the country’s most popular politician, in jail.

More than 650,000 army, paramilitary, and police personnel are providing security.

Pollsters have predicted a low turnout from the country’s 128 million eligible voters following the hobbling of Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI) party and the two bomb blasts on February 7, which occurred outside the offices of candidates and were claimed by the Islamic State group. Authorities insisted the violence would not interrupt voting.

"Every effort to sabotage the situation of peace and security will be thwarted," acting Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar said following the blasts.

However, the Foreign Ministry said the borders with Iran and Afghanistan have been closed to all traffic and mobile phone services suspended in border areas as a security measure.

Early on February 8, RFE/RL journalists in Quetta, the violence-ridden capital of Balochistan, as well as in the country’s largest city, Karachi, and the northwestern city of Peshawar reported that voters had begun to gather in larger numbers in the late morning after a slow start.

Nearly 18,000 candidates are standing for seats in the national and four provincial assemblies. Some the 266 seats in the national assembly will be directly contested along with an additional 70 reserved for women and minorities and 749 places in the provincial parliaments.

Khan, 71, a retired cricket superstar who was prime minister in 2018-22, is the founder of the PTI and still enjoys huge popularity, but he is in prison after convictions on corruption charges and has been barred from holding office for a decade.

The PTI on February 7 released a video of Khan recorded days before he was arrested in August calling on people to turn out to vote.

Meanwhile, front-runner and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, 74, led a huge rally in the eastern city of Kasur with his brother, former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who is running locally. With Khan sidelined, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is expected to win the most seats in the vote.

Nawaz Sharif called on the country’s youth to support his party not Khan’s, telling younger voters not to “fall for" his political rival.

Supporters of another party, the Pakistan People’s Party, also gathered for a rally led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who could play kingmaker if no single party receives enough parliamentary seats to form a government outright.

The former foreign minister and son of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto criticized opponents, including Sharif, for what he described as compromising the country’s security and economy during their tenures.

The country’s 90,000 polling stations are due to close at 5:00 p.m. local time.
‘Harassed constantly’: Imran Khan’s party fights state pressure in Pakistan election (The Guardian)
The Guardian [2/7/2024 8:58 AM, Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Shah Meer Baloch, 12499K, Negative]
For months, police have blocked Arsalan Hafeez from entering into the Pakistani constituency where he will be standing for election this week.

Since he put himself forward as the candidate for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the political party led by Pakistan’s now incarcerated former prime minister Imran Khan, Hafeez alleges that the state’s machinery has done everything to prevent him being able to contest his district of Narowal in the state of Punjab.

He claims rigorous police checkpoints have repeatedly blocked his entry and all attempts to campaign and hold rallies. Even attempts to talk to his potential voters have been obstructed by officers, he says. He also accuses police of attempting to intimidate him and his family to prevent him from putting forward his nomination papers at all.

“We have been harassed constantly by police, many of my workers arrested for trying to campaign, and I can’t even go into my constituency,” said Hafeez. “They have also registered many false cases against me. They are going after me like a criminal when all I am trying to do is freely fight an election.”

Hafeez’s case is far from unique. Since violent protests erupted last May, leaders and workers of PTI allege they have undergone an unprecedented crackdown – including intimidation and arrests – designed to destroy the party and prevent them taking part in Pakistan’s long-delayed elections, to be held on 8 February. On Thursday, 14 PTI candidates will be running from jail.

Khan, who has languished behind bars since his arrest in August, was suddenly sentenced in three separate cases last week: on Tuesday given 10 years in prison for allegedly leaking state secret, given 14 years in a corruption case on Wednesday, and on the weekend sentenced to seven years after it was ruled his marriage was illegal.

The flurry of harsh sentences was seen as a clear message that PTI would not be allowed to return to power this week. “It’s grotesque,” said Salman Akram Raja, a senior PTI leader running in the election. “Candidates and people have been made to fear for their privacy, for their dignity, for their home, for their liberty if they come out and openly support PTI.”

Many in PTI, and voters on the streets, expressed concern that the election would be rigged to bring back the favoured candidate of Pakistan’s powerful military, the three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, to power. A report by Crisis Group this week on the elections stated that the crackdown on PTI “could have dire implications for the party’s electoral prospects” and warned of “tarnished elections” that could lack credibility.

Murtaza Solangi, the information minister in Pakistan’s caretaker government, hit back at the allegations, calling them “absurd, baseless and vehemently denied”, and said that most of those arrested had been involved in “violent attacks against the military and civilian installations”.

“Our constitution ensures free speech so they are able to make any accusation against the state,” said Solangi. “No civilised country tolerates violent attacks against state.”

In a statement on the eve of the election, Pakistan’s foreign office said it was “fully committed to foster an inclusive democratic process”.

The sustained assault against Khan and PTI is seen to be driven by the country’s powerful military, which has a long history of meddling in Pakistani politics. It was the military’s backing that was seen to bring Khan to power in 2018 but after the relationship fell apart, it helped orchestrate his removal from office in 2022.

In the aftermath, Khan publicly turned on the military generals who had been his former allies, accusing them of controlling politics, bearing a personal grudge against him and attempting to assassinate him. Khan’s damning rhetoric against the army fuelled unprecedented public anger on the streets towards the military, long seen as the kingmakers in Pakistan’s politics and the main obstacle to the country’s stilted progress towards democracy.

The state responded by arresting Khan, filing hundreds of cases against him and barring him from running for office, and carrying out a sustained campaign of harassment of thousands of PTI workers and supporters.

Dozens of senior PTI leaders have alleged they were put under pressure or even tortured into leaving the party, while many others who stayed in the party have remained in jail. PTI candidates who have managed to stand say they have been prevented from holding rallies and their posters are systematically torn down.

The election commission also ruled the party was not allowed to use its widely recognised symbol, the cricket bat, a devastating blow in a country with a high rate of illiteracy where the party symbol is how candidates are mostly identified. Without a unified symbol, many PTI candidates, including Hafeez, have also been forced by the election commission to officially stand as independents.

While in power, Khan’s mishandling of the economy and crackdown on his political opponents drew heavy criticism and lost him widespread credibility. Since being removed from office, however, his populist rhetoric is seen to have heavily polarised the electorate, while the crackdown he has endured has only driven up his popularity.

On the streets of Lahore and Islamabad there was a mood of defiance among voters, and anti-military sentiments ran high as many felt the outcome of the election was already fixed by the generals.

Riaz Hussain, an interior designer in Lahore, was jailed for eight months after he was picked up by police and wrongly accused of taking part in violent PTI protests, but said he would still be voting for Khan’s party.

“I will vote for Imran Khan and so will everyone I know,” he said. “He is the most honest and trustworthy leader in Pakistan. But we are facing a brazen crackdown before the general elections. I personally know many innocent people are still behind the bars. If we say we will vote for Khan, we will be arrested immediately.”

Shahzad Ali had a poster of Sharif outside his cafe to appease the authorities, but said in reality he would be voting for PTI. “Me and all my friends will vote for Khan. But Nawaz Sharif will win because the military want him to win and he has support from the police, military and entire government. The military decide the result,” he said.

With conventional campaigning largely obstructed, PTI have instead turned to innovative methods of campaigning using social media platforms including YouTube, X, Facebook and TikTok, an increasingly strategic way to reach out to Pakistan’s voters, 67% of whom are between the ages of 18 and 45.

This includes creating three AI-generated video speeches to make it appear as if Khan was addressing voters even as he sat in jail.

The first speech was broadcast at one of PTI’s online rallies, which was streamed live across all their social media channels to an audience of over 6 million people, in which Khan spoke out against the crackdown on PTI and told audiences that “history will remember your sacrifices”. Though the internet was shut down in Pakistan as the online event was taking place, PTI estimates that over 20 million people have now watched the speech.

It was such a success that two more Khan AI-speeches were generated, based on shorthand notes given to his lawyers: one discussing the war in Gaza at an international conference, and another, created just a few days before the election, in which Khan urged people to come out and vote in large numbers.

With physical rallies made largely impossible, the party has been holding weekly “virtual jalsas [rallies]” on social media, including two TikTok rallies that drew upwards of 16 million likes. A tool was also built on Facebook where voters can directly message Khan to ask about their local PTI candidate, and receive a personalised response.

Jibran Ilyas, PTI’s head of social media, said even as the state had attempted to shut down many of these online campaigning methods, “in this day and age, they can not stop the flow of information”.

“The crackdown on our party has only forced us to innovate even more, and I can see from our data how many people in Pakistan are seeking out information about their PTI candidates,” said Ilyas. “We are doing out best to get the highest turnout in the history of Pakistan and I’m optimistic that will bring us back to power.”
Why China Is Closely Watching The Pakistani Elections (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/7/2024 2:13 PM, Reid Standish, 223K, Neutral]
In elections being closely watched by China, Pakistanis are heading to the polls in a tight race defined by a teetering economy and growing security risks that could shape the future for billions of dollars of Chinese infrastructure projects for their country.

“Beijing has a lot at stake here,” Michael Kugelman, the director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, told RFE/RL. “China wants more stability in this relationship and in Pakistan as a whole, but there’s no guarantee that this election can deliver that.”

The February 8 vote in Pakistan takes place amid rising inflation and a weak currency, along with an escalating terrorism problem and simmering tensions with three of the South Asian country’s four neighbors. The crucial parliamentary elections also come amid intense political polarization after former Prime Minister Imran Khan was imprisoned on the eve of the vote.

With Pakistan becoming increasingly unstable, Beijing -- who has become one of Islamabad’s most important allies -- is worried about the future of its investments in the country of some 231 million people and ensuring the safety of Chinese workers who have increasingly come under deadly attacks.

While China is a vital economic lifeline for Pakistan, the South Asian country also serves as a strategic pillar for Beijing’s own ambitions by providing vital trade links to the Middle East through the Arabian Sea.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a collection of road, rail, energy, and other infrastructure projects worth more than $50 billion, has been a flagship within Beijing’s globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but political upheaval and security setbacks in Pakistan have seen the venture slow down and even stall in recent years.

Looking to breathe new life into CPEC, experts say Beijing would prefer a government led by Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister who is currently the frontrunner from the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN).

“CPEC has lost momentum due to a reluctance from Beijing to invest over security concerns, plus Pakistan’s overall poor economic situation and China’s own slowdown,” said Kugelman. “China wants to get CPEC going again and Sharif is seen as someone who will work with them to that goal.”

A Tense Election

While China has a vested interest in the upcoming vote, Beijing also has a strong relationship with Pakistan’s influential military that Kugelman says gives it a sense of continuity amid the upheaval of the country’s electoral politics.

According to the global democracy watchdog Freedom House, Pakistan’s electoral process is considered “partly free.” While it holds regular elections, the country operates under a “hybrid rule” between the military and civilian government, and no elected prime minister has completed a full five-year term in the country’s history.

Looking at the February 8 contest, three major candidates announced plans to run in the parliamentary elections in the hopes of leading the next government as prime minister -- but only two are eligible.

Sharif, whose brother Shehbaz led the most recent coalition before acaretaker government took over in August, is seen as most likely to head the next government. A three-time former prime minister who recently returned from exile in the United Kingdom -- where he fled in 2019 after losing support from Pakistan’s omnipotent military and being charged with corruption. Experts say he’s since mended ties with the military and now has its backing.

Another top candidate is Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the 35-year-old son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who represents the center-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). A former foreign minister, polls show Bhutto Zardari as unlikely to lead Pakistan’s next government, but he could act as kingmaker in parliament helping decide who becomes prime minister.

Although shown in polls as Pakistan’s most-popular politician, Khan is not on the ballot.

His term ended with a vote of no confidence after he lost the support of the military in 2022. He was arrested and sentenced to prison on corruption charges, a move that his supporters say is politically motivated. Islamabad’s electoral commission has banned Khan and many other candidates from his Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI) party from politics.

But while the PTI has been kept off the ballot, his supporters can still vote for Khan loyalists who are running as independents.

This has prompted accusations that the military is interfering and raised concern that the results of the vote will not be respected. A recent survey conducted by Gallup found that some 70 percent of Pakistanis lack confidence in the integrity of their elections, which the agency said “ties previous highs” but “represents a significant regression in recent years.”

A Preferred Candidate?

Against this backdrop, China is seen as favoring Sharif as its preferred candidate to lead the next government.

The launch of CPEC overlapped with Sharif’s third term in office and his government forged closer ties with China as Beijing launched a wide slate of ambitious infrastructure projects across the country.

While CPEC grew into a centerpiece of the BRI -- viewed by many analysts as a strategic project aimed at building China’s global influence -- the investments quickly became intertwined with Pakistani politics.

Filippo Boni, a senior lecturer at the Open University in Britain who studies CPEC, says that Sharif directed the massive venture toward the Sindh and Punjab provinces in order to boost his party’s prospects during elections by providing investment to the politically important regions.

Similarly, he says Sharif pushed for CPEC’s early investments to go toward energy projects in the hope that ending the country’s electricity shortages could improve his reelection bid in 2018.

“Sharif and his brother were key figures for helping turn CPEC into a flagship for China,” Boni told RFE/RL. “The prospects of new projects being added to CPEC looks slim today, but with more trusted civilian leadership in place, maybe some of that could be reconsidered.”

When Khan succeeded Sharif in 2018, he expressed initial suspicion of BRI and CPEC, and raised concerns about the long-term implications of becoming too dependent on China. Khan’s government was critical of the preferential tax breaks given to Chinese companies and members of his cabinet even called for a pause on Chinese investment into the country.

Khan would later temper his criticism of CPEC and use the venture to shore up his own political base, choosing to establish a special economic zone in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province despite Beijing preferring different locations and feasibility studies showing other areas would perform better.

Despite the potential of CPEC, many projects have fallen behind schedule or so far failed to deliver on the promised results. This has led to the Pakistani military taking greater control through the 2019 creation of the CPEC Authority -- a government body authorized to oversee BRI projects in Pakistan -- and Islamabad is looking to cede further authority to the military to implement CPEC.

Khan’s tenure also saw a rise in attacks on Chinese personnel and interests, which Beijing became increasingly worried about and expressed concern to Islamabad that not enough was being done to protect its citizens in Pakistan.

“Khan’s early moves unsettled China and, even though they were walked back, this wasn’t forgotten in Beijing,” said Kugelman. “Khan is a populist who the Chinese see as unpredictable. Sharif, on the other hand, rarely asked questions or placed demands on Beijing.”

Looking For A Future

The elections offer little hope for near-term political stability, experts say, and Pakistan will continue to grapple with the political, economic, and security threats it’s currently facing.

Boni says security threats in Pakistan, particularly over its own citizens, are one of Beijing’s top concerns moving forward and, along with the country’s unstable economic situation, could keep CPEC on the backburner.

When caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar met with President Xi Jinping in China in October, he pushed for new investments. Xi responded by urging Pakistan to first take more steps to protect Chinese organizations and personnel working in the country.

“No matter who wins the elections, it’s going to be an uphill battle to manage the economy and deal with security threats,” Boni said.

He adds that Beijing continues to deepen ties with Pakistan’s military through new arms deals and military exercises, including large-scale naval exercises in November. China has also looked to prop up Pakistan with billions of dollars in economic aid in the last year.

“New civilian leadership could help stop [CPEC’s] slowdown, but there’s so much uncertainty for China,” Boni said. “The relationship with the military provides continuity, but it will take more to recalibrate the CPEC.”
Dozens Killed In Blasts Ahead Of Pakistani Elections; Islamic State Claims Responsibility (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/7/2024 3:57 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Two blasts near election offices of candidates in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan killed nearly 30 people and wounded dozens on February 7, a day before the parliamentary vote is to be held in the South Asian country.

The Islamic State (IS) extremist group claimed responsibility for both bombings.

The first attack happened in Pishin, a district in Balochistan Province near the Afghan border, killing 17 and wounding several others, local security official Naseebullah Kakar told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal.

The explosion occurred outside the election office of independent candidate and former provincial minister Asfandyar Khan Kakar, officials said, adding that he was not harmed in the blast.

The first attack, which killed 12, took place at the office of an independent election candidate in Pishin district.

The second blast occurred in Qilla Saifullah, near an office of Maulana Abdul Wasi, a candidate of Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI), a religious party that has previously been the target of militant attacks, Yasir Baz, the head of the local administration, told the media.

At least 12 people were killed and 25 wounded in that attack, officials said.

IS fighters denotated an explosives-rigged motorbike "in the middle of an election gathering" in Qilla Saifullah, the group said in a statement on Telegram shortly after claiming responsibility for the attack in the Pishin district.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attacks, his spokesman said, adding that they were "clearly related to the elections" scheduled to be held the next day.

"We strongly condemn the horrific attacks, and the bomb explosions that we saw earlier today that killed many, many people and injured many more a day before the elections," Stephane Dujarric said.

Several groups, including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a banned Baloch separatist group, the Islamist militant Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Islamic State (IS) have carried out attacks in recent months in the region.

"The Election Commission has asked the chief secretary and inspector-general of Balochistan for immediate reports and instructed them to take action against those behind the events," a spokesman for the Election Commission said in a statement.

The government in Islamabad, meanwhile, announced that it was closing the borders with Afghanistan and Iran ahead of the elections.

Violence has been on the rise in Pakistan ahead of the elections.

At least 10 police officers were killed when dozens of heavily armed fighters attacked a police station in Daraban, a town in Dera Ismail Khan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, which borders Afghanistan, on February 5.

Late last month, four police officers and two civilians were killed by BLA militants in Balochistan.
It Was Once Pakistan’s Military Stronghold. Now Even It Has Had Enough. (New York Times)
New York Times [2/7/2024 4:14 PM, Christina Goldbaum, 831K, Neutral]
As they head to the polls this week, residents in Pakistan’s most populous and affluent province are fed up.

Just look around, they say: The economy is in free fall and inflation has soared. A favorite politician has been thrown behind bars. Everyone from young laborers to prominent influencers in the province, Punjab, have been jailed alongside him.

And it’s become clear, many say, that a group once widely supported in Punjab is to blame: the country’s military.

“We aren’t faulting the politicians anymore — now we know who to blame,” said Sibghat Butt, 29, a customer service representative in Lahore, the province’s capital. “We’re living in a security state.”

That anger is shared across Punjab, a stark shift over the past two years that has shaken a core tenet of a political system whose ultimate authority is the military. The growing criticism in Punjab has chipped away at the military’s legitimacy and helped make this one of the most polarized moments in Pakistan’s history.

Throughout the country’s 76-year existence, Punjab residents have been well represented in the military’s ranks. The elite in Lahore, an affluent metropolis, have long maintained strong ties to the upper echelons of the military establishment. While civilians in much of the rest of the country have been displaced or killed or have disappeared at the hands of the security forces, those in Punjab never really faced the heavy hand of the military.

But now, as the country heads into an election tainted by military meddling, that once loyal base of support has eroded. Many in Punjab, as in the rest of the country, felt betrayed by the military after the populist prime minister, Imran Khan, was removed in 2022 — an ouster they believe the military orchestrated after Mr. Khan fell out with the generals.

When Mr. Khan was arrested in May and anti-military protests swept the country, residents of Lahore stormed a top general’s house, setting it ablaze. In the months since, hundreds in Punjab have been arrested — including some in Lahore’s elite whose families have close ties to the military — and slapped with charges of terrorism and inciting violence.

Government officials have defended the arrests as a necessary response to the violent protests in May. “No country tolerates such criminal actions,” said Murtaza Solangi, the interim information minister.

Others now blame the military for the dismal state of the economy, after the generals took a more front-seat role in guiding the country’s economic policies following Mr. Khan’s ouster. They are also concerned as terrorism resurges across the country, seeing the military leaders as focused more on squashing Mr. Khan’s support base than on keeping the country secure.

“This is the first time we’re really seeing anti-establishment sentiments in Punjab,” said Zahid Hussain, an Islamabad-based analyst, referring to the military. “The institution has become much more controversial, and the anti-army sentiment now runs very deep.”

The military has directly ruled Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people, for most of its existence. Even under civilian governments, it has wielded enormous power.

That has impeded Pakistan’s progress toward democracy, analysts say. But in Punjab, it also led the military to be viewed as a last line of defense in a country with weak political parties, fragile institutions, a crumbling economy and violent extremism. Now, even those with deep military roots are beginning to question the generals’ iron grip on power.

At the Colabs co-working space in Lahore, Tazeen Shaukat, 27, sat in front of her laptop, a blue neon sign with the phrase “Grind & Shine” lighting up the walls of black steel and exposed brick.

Ms. Shaukat said that her father had spent his career in the army. He taught her that the military was a hallowed institution, the so-called sacred cow that held the country together.

“For a long time, I really believed that, too, that politicians aren’t to be trusted and we needed the military,” said Ms. Shaukat, a data engineer.

After the military propelled Mr. Khan — who at the time was in its good graces — to the political forefront a decade ago, all of that changed.

Like many in upper-middle-class military families in Lahore, her father became an avid supporter of Mr. Khan and was appalled after he was ousted in 2022. His loyalty to the popular leader seemed to overtake his allegiance to the army. “His opinion completely changed — he kept saying it was a huge mistake,” she said.

At the same time, she and many of her young friends were watching viral videos produced by Mr. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or P.T.I., that explained in plain language how the military was destabilizing the country’s democracy — not holding it together.

“Now I have a better sense of what democratic politics should look like,” she said.

In Lahore, that sentiment is especially strong among the young upper middle class that saw Mr. Khan as a reformer.

One recent afternoon at the Lahore Polo Club, dozens of people gathered on restaurant patios to watch the day’s match. Smog hung low over the field, and French jazz emanated from the bistro’s speakers. Each time the pack galloped closer to the spectators, the rhythmic thuds of the thoroughbreds echoed across the field.

Mustafa, 38, had come to the match to celebrate his wife’s 33rd birthday. Both were swept up in the fervor around Mr. Khan when he rose to political prominence and watched as friends who had lived abroad for years returned to Pakistan. “Imran brought a glimmer of hope — even if he was backed by the army then,” said Mustafa, 38, who gave only his first name for fear of repercussions.

The military’s crackdown on Mr. Khan’s supporters after his ouster snuffed out any hope of change, he said. It has had a chilling effect, as friends have been detained for social media posts expressing support for P.T.I.

The granddaughter of a former army chief and prominent P.T.I. supporter in Lahore, Khadijah Shah, was arrested and jailed for seven months after the May protests.

“It may not be officially martial law, but it’s basically martial law because you can’t speak your mind openly,” Mustafa said.

“At some point, it just gets to be too much,” his wife, Shameen, 33, interjected. She also preferred to give only her first name. “That’s the frustration of the youth, we’re waiting, waiting, waiting, but nothing’s changing — for how long can we wait?”

The couple plan to leave Pakistan and move to Canada in the coming year, they said.

The antimilitary sentiment has complicated the generals’ efforts to tilt the election in favor of its preferred party of the moment, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or P.M.L.N, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Punjab is known as the country’s most heated battleground, contributing 173 of the 326 seats in Pakistan’s Parliament.

Young people angry at the military can no longer be trusted to vote for the party their parents or community elders tell them to, upending the way politics has worked for decades in Punjab. Others are casting votes for P.T.I. candidates just to spite the military, they say.

“What’s been going on is wrong; they’re rigging the election — that’s not fair,” said Muhammad Tayyab, 21, standing outside his car repair shop in Jhelum, a small city in central Punjab.

“Careful what you say — the military will pick you up,” one man warned as he left the shop, electric rickshaws whizzing by. Others around him were less reserved.

“We’ll go to the polls with the symbol of P.M.L.N. on our shirts,” one young man yelled as he passed by, “but we’re voting P.T.I.!”
Pakistan’s Surreal Election (Time – opinion)
Time [2/7/2024 9:46 AM, Michael Kugelman, 1386K, Negative]
Karl Marx famously said that history repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce. Years from now, Pakistan’s 2024 election—which happens Thursday—will be looked back on as a grim reminder that history can be both tragedy and farce at the same time.

First, the farce. Pakistani officials are going out of their way to depict as wholly normal an election with a wildly distorted playing field, thanks to a relentless crackdown on former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, one of the largest and most popular in the country.

Authorities promise free, transparent, and peaceful elections. They’re hosting more than 100 foreign election observers and offering an “open door policy” for international election monitors. They speak of the 260 million ballot papers that have been printed—that’s 2,170 tons of paper for those keeping score at home—and delivered, by road and air, to the country’s 859 voting constituencies. “Now,” proclaimed Anwar ul Haq Kakar, head of the caretaker government charged with preparing the country for elections, on Tuesday, “it is the turn of the people of Pakistan to exercise their democratic right to vote.”

But the franchise of Pakistan’s 128 million eligible voters needs a big asterisk. The PTI isn’t banned, but court rulings have deprived the party of its cricket-bat electoral symbol, a major blow in a nation with a 40% percent illiteracy rate, and it can only field candidates as independents. Meanwhile, many top party leaders have been jailed, or pressured to switch parties or quit politics altogether. Others have gone underground. Khan has been imprisoned since August and was given three prison sentences, totaling 24 years, in the last week alone. Hundreds, possibly thousands, of PTI supporters have been jailed. Authorities have broken up street rallies they’ve tried to hold, and internet services have been disrupted when they convene activities online.

With PTI having been severely cut down to size, there’s little intrigue about the electoral outcome. The center-right Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is heavily favored to form the next government. But herein lies another aspect of the electoral farce. PML-N is led by Nawaz Sharif, a three-time former Prime Minister, and a top candidate to be Pakistan’s next premier. He’s also widely believed to be a preferred candidate of Pakistan’s powerful military. When Sharif, saddled with serious corruption charges, returned to Pakistan from four years of self-imposed exile in London last October, he magically avoided arrest and had many of his charges melt away. That can’t happen without military support.

But Sharif is no true friend of the military. Like many top Pakistani politicians, he rose to prominence with its backing, only to fall out with it multiple times during his previous periods in power. If the military pushes for Sharif to head the next government, it could be setting itself up for a fresh battle with a leader who has often refused to be the pliant premier that it prefers. That seems a strange, and potentially destabilizing, move for a military that’s emphasized the importance of prioritizing economic recovery in a country plagued with major foreign debt and a 24% inflation rate.

But then again, the military once viewed Khan as a favorite son, before falling out with him in catastrophic fashion in a dispute over the appointment of the head of the country’s intelligence agency. Khan became a Frankenstein’s monster for the military. But now it’s seemingly once again betting on the wrong horse, banking on Sharif’s extensive experience to help the country right its economic ship. That’s even as his past record, marked by sharp disagreements with the army—which in one case led to his removal in a coup and in another resulted in his disqualification from public office—suggests stormy seas ahead for civil-military relations. More political turmoil could imperil the economic stabilization that Pakistan so desperately needs.

And this brings us to Pakistan’s election as tragedy. It’s a sadly apt term, and not just because of the deadly election related-violence in recent days, including two attacks in Balochistan province on Wednesday that killed at least 22 people. The country is experiencing one of its darkest periods in decades. There’s the resurgent terrorism, severe economic stress, worsening border tensions with Iran and Afghanistan, increasingly destructive climate change effects as seen during thee catastrophic floods of 2022, and, not surprisingly, record levels of public skepticism about the government’s capacity to fix all these problems. There’s never been a more critical moment for a credible election. And yet, it will likely be more farcical than free and fair.

In this Pakistani tragedy, there are no heroes. Not the military and its allied political parties that have waged repressive campaigns against the PTI. Not the courts that have caved in to their pressure. And for that matter not Khan, who could have kept a low profile after his ouster and simply focused on preparing for elections, rather than making incendiary statements against the military and baselessly accusing the U.S., a critical Pakistani trade partner, of helping orchestrate his ouster. To be sure, that’s not in Khan’s nature. But his decision to indulge a personal vendetta and escalate his confrontation with the military is part of the reason why Pakistan is in the precarious political position it is today.

To its credit, the PTI has refused to give up. It’s fielding independent candidates, and using all manner of tactics—social media messaging, video screens hooked up in the middle of town squares, even AI-driven jailhouse speeches from Khan—to get people to vote. And yet, it’s investing so much energy and resources into an effort that—barring an electoral miracle—is seemingly destined to fail, which will only sharpen the grievances of an already-angry PTI base. And that, much like the election that the PTI so badly wants to win, is both tragedy and farce.
India
India Eyes $100 Billion Investment Deal With Switzerland, Norway (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [2/7/2024 9:50 AM, Shruti Srivastava and Bastian Benrath, 5543K, Positive]
India is close to finalizing a first-of-its-kind trade deal that could see a small group of European nations invest as much as $100 billion over 15 years in exchange for easier trade access to the world’s most populous nation, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The European Free Trade Association, which comprises Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, made a commitment to invest in India as part of a trade pact that’s in the final stages of negotiations, the people said, asking not to be identified as the talks are still ongoing.

The contours of the deal have been agreed and deliberations currently center on the final investment amount, which could be as much as $100 billion over 15 years, some of the people said. While India wants the commitment to be legally binding, one of the European officials said the amount will likely be framed as a goal, with no legal means to claim it included in the language of the agreement.

If finalized, it would mark the first time an investment commitment of this nature is secured by India as part of a free trade agreement.

Switzerland’s Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said last month that the outline of a deal had been agreed upon, without giving details. Legal clarifications are currently being rushed so the deal can be signed before India holds elections likely from April, a European official with knowledge of the matter said.

India’s commerce ministry didn’t immediately respond when contacted by Bloomberg News.

The Swiss economy ministry said in a statement that the text of the agreement is “still to be finalized and both parties have agreed not to disclose the details at this stage.” The main points where agreement has been reached include “patent protection, which was controversial in the past, as well as a new type of investment promotion chapter,” it said.

Norway’s government declined to comment on the terms of the deal.

Trade Bloc

Switzerland is by far India’s largest commercial partner among the members of the EFTA bloc, which comprises European nations which are not members of the European Union. Swiss two-way trade with India amounted to $17.14 billion in the 2022-23 fiscal year, out of $18.66 billion with the whole group.

For EFTA countries, the agreement — which has been 16 years in the making — will allow manufacturers to export processed food and beverages, electrical machinery, and other engineering products at reduced tariffs to a potential market of 1.4 billion people. The deal is also likely to benefit the pharmaceutical and medical devices industry of the bloc.

India is attracting investor interest from several countries as businesses look to diversify their supply chains from China and seek new growth markets. India expects growth of about 7% in the fiscal year beginning in April, making it one of the fastest-expanding major economies in the world. The United Arab Emirates is also considering investing as much as $50 billion in India.

The investment in India from EFTA countries would mostly come from private businesses and state-sponsored vehicles and would be targeted toward existing and new manufacturing projects, according to people familiar with the discussions. The investment will see more than 1 million jobs created in India, one of the people said.

The deal would also ensure easier movement of Indian professionals to the bloc and market access for some agricultural products, the people said. While Switzerland — the biggest economy in the EFTA bloc — is usually very protective of its farmers, easier market access for Indian rice could be acceptable since Switzerland only produces marginal quantities itself, a person familiar with the negotiations said.
India plans to protest EU’s carbon tax at WTO meeting - sources (Reuters)
Reuters [2/7/2024 7:29 AM, Manoj Kumar, 5239K, Negative]
India plans to protest the European Union’s proposed carbon tax on imports of steel, iron ore and cement at the next meeting of World Trade Organization (WTO) later this month, saying it would emerge as a new trade barrier, two government sources said.

New Delhi, along with South Africa and other like-minded countries, is planning to push its demand to rein in the European Union’s unilateral measure at the WTO’s Ministerial Conference (MC13), to be held in Abu Dhabi from Feb. 26 to 29, senior government officials said.

"Any unilateral measures taken to combat climate change should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or disguised restriction on global trade," one of the government officials, with direct knowledge of WTO discussions, told reporters on Wednesday.

India had earlier decided to file a complaint in the WTO over the EU’s proposal to impose 20-35% tariffs on imports of high-carbon goods like steel, iron ore and cement, while raising the issue with EU officials in bilateral meetings.

The EU has said it designed the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) carefully so that it was compatible with WTO rules, applying the same carbon price on imported goods as on domestic EU producers.

India and China are among several countries that have aired concerns within the WTO over the EU’s carbon tax designated to prevent European industry being undercut by cheaper goods from countries with weaker environment rules.

"Climate change is a real issue, and knows no territorial borders," said the second official.
The officials declined to be identified according to government policy on discussions at international forums.

The commerce ministry, which is leading India’s negotiations at the WTO, declined to comment.

The official said developed countries had missed an agreed annual target of mobilising $100 billion by 2020 for climate action in developing countries.

New Delhi has also opposed EU regulations banning the import of products based on deforestation in the country of origin, likely to hit billions of dollars worth of exports from India.
Small Indian state passes landmark ‘civil code’ opposed by Muslims (Reuters)
Reuters [2/7/2024 10:45 AM, Rupam Jain, 5239K, Neutral]
Lawmakers in a small Indian state ruled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Wednesday approved landmark legislation to unify personal laws across religions, a move opposed by many minority Muslims.

Approval by the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand makes it the first in the country since independence from Britain in 1947 to implement a Uniform Civil Code, a contentious decades-old BJP promise, months before national elections.

Currently, India’s Hindus, Muslims, Christians and other minority groups follow their own personal laws and customs, or an optional secular code for marriage, divorce, adoption and inheritance.

The move by Uttarakhand banning polygamy and other Muslim practices is expected to pave the way for other BJP-ruled states to follow suit despite angry opposition from some leaders of India’s 200-million strong Muslim minority.

"The Uniform Civil Code will give the right to equality to everyone without any discrimination. ... We must make history by clearing it," said Pushkar Singh Dhami, the state’s chief minister, just before BJP lawmakers and some others voted in favour of the bill.

A political aide to Dhami confirmed that the state assembly, where the BJP enjoys a majority, passed the bill.

Rooted in the framework of the Indian Constitution, the code puts an end to religious interpretation of laws guiding marriage, divorce, maintenance, inheritance, adoption and succession.

Dhami said it "provides security to women and empowers them."

The code sets a minimum marriageable age for both genders. It guarantees equal rights to men and women on issues pertaining to divorce, share in ancestral property and offers rights to adopted children, those born out of wedlock or were conceived through surrogate births.

A legal expert working on the UCC bill in Uttarakhand said Islam’s Sharia laws permits polygamy and has no stringent rules to prohibit marriage of minors.

India is around 80% Hindu and about 14% Muslim and is the world’s third-largest Muslim country. Muslims accuse Modi’s right-wing nationalist party of pursuing a Hindu agenda that discriminates against them and directly imposes laws interfering with their faith. Modi denies this but the situation has led to sporadic violence between members of the two communities.

A regional Muslim politician from south India, Asaduddin Owaisi, said the code was nothing but a "Hindu code of conduct."

"I have a right to practise my religion and culture but UCC stops us from exercising our fundamental rights," he told Reuters.

The new code makes it mandatory for a man and a woman to register their marriages and also submit a notice if they are in a live-in relationship to a government office. Terminations of live-in relationships should also be reported to the police.

"The Uttarakhand UCC is patriarchal to the core," Subhashini Ali, a senior member of the Communist party of India(Marxist), said on X.

It "denies women the right to choice. An inter caste couple going to register their marriage is inviting death," she said.

Many young Indians on social media said the move to register live-in relationships was a direct assault on privacy but the BJP rejected the criticism.

"As society evolves, you (government) need to regulate new practices," Uttarakhand Child and Women Welfare Minister Rekha Arya told NDTV newschannel. "It’s a modern move and not an attempt to invade anyone’s privacy."

Many BJP-ruled states such as Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Rajasthan have decided to introduce the UCC, a national civil code that is one of the three core promises of Modi’ BJP political manifesto.

The other two were removing the autonomy of the only Muslim majority region of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 and building a contested temple to Hindu deity Ram, replacing a centuries-old mosque razed by hardline Hindus in 1992.
Police in Indian-controlled Kashmir say militants fire on workers from Punjab state, killing 1 (AP)
AP [2/7/2024 12:09 PM, Staff, 22K, Negative]
Militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir fired at two workers from the northern state of Punjab, killing one and wounding another, police said Wednesday.

Police blamed militants fighting against Indian rule in the disputed region for the attack in Srinagar. Officials did not immediately give further details.

Kashmir has witnessed a spate of targeted killings since October 2019, two months after New Delhi stripped the region of its semi-autonomy, removed inherited protections on land and jobs and cracked down on dissent and press freedom.

Dozens of Hindus, including immigrant workers from Indian states, have been killed in the attacks that also have targeted Muslim village councilors, police officers and civilians.

Kashmir is divided between India and Pakistan and claimed by both in its entirety.

Rebels in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir have been fighting New Delhi’s rule since 1989. Most Muslim Kashmiris support the rebels’ goal of uniting the territory, either under Pakistani rule or as an independent country.

India insists the Kashmir militancy is Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Pakistan denies the charge, and most Kashmiris consider it a legitimate freedom struggle.

Tens of thousands of civilians, rebels and government forces have been killed in the conflict.
India’s southern states protest against federal funds distribution by Modi govt (Reuters)
Reuters [2/7/2024 7:38 AM, YP Rajesh, 5239K, Negative]
Ministers and lawmakers from India’s southern states protested in the capital New Delhi on Wednesday against what they said was discrimination in federal funds distribution by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

The protest, led by the chief minister of Karnataka state, brings to the fore long-running differences between the more developed southern states and their poorer northern counterparts.

India’s five southern states are ruled by regional parties or rivals of Modi’s nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the chief minister of Kerala is due to lead the protests on Thursday.

Tech hub Bengaluru is the capital of Karnataka, which contributes the second highest taxes in the country.

In the last four years the state saw its share of tax funds transferred back from the federal government fall to 3.64% of total national taxes collected from 4.71%, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who uses only one name, told the protesters.

New Delhi had also broken promises on allotment of grants, denied permission to irrigation projects and not heeded to requests for special funds for drought relief, he said.

Siddaramaiah, who belongs to the main opposition Congress party, said the federal policy to distribute funds based on population of states was unfair to the southern states which had tackled population growth better.

"North Indian states did not tackle population growth," he told ministers and lawmakers who staged a sit-in at New Delhi’s main protest location of Jantar Mantar.

The protesters shouted slogans and held placards that read ‘Our Tax, Our Right’, and ‘Our Tax Money, Give it to us’.

"So population control has become a curse for us. Is this not injustice?" Siddaramaiah said.

The federal government has rejected the accusations, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman saying there is a well-set system that handles funds distribution and the accusations were politically motivated.

Modi hit back at Siddaramaiah on Wednesday, saying a dangerous north-south divide was being created.

"Our tax, our money...what kind of language is this? I don’t discriminate against states," he told parliament.
India interior ministry recommends suspending free movement with Myanmar (Reuters)
Reuters [2/8/2024 2:39 AM, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, 5.2M, Neutral]
India’s interior ministry has recommended the immediate suspension of its free movement regime with Myanmar, Interior Minister Amit Shah said on Thursday.

The free movement regime allows people from both countries to travel visa-free across borders for a few kilometres.

Since a military coup in Myanmar in 2021, hundreds of civilians and troops have fled to Indian states where communities between the two countries share ethnic and familial ties. This has worried New Delhi because of risks of tensions spreading to India.

Myanmar’s military rulers last week extended a state of emergency in place since the coup, as the junta battles to contain a bloody, pro-democracy rebellion that has severely tested its ability to govern.
India Projects Naval Power in Arabian Sea Amid Houthi Strikes, Piracy Resurgence (VOA)
VOA [2/7/2024 4:41 PM, Anjana Pasricha, 761K, Neutral]
From helping douse a fire on a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker hit by a Houthi missile on January 26 to rescuing vessels hijacked by pirates, Indian navy warships have been providing security to merchant ships in the Arabian Sea.

India has not joined the U.S.-led task force for the Red Sea that is launching strikes against Yemen-based Houthi rebels, who have mounted missile and drone attacks on commercial ships in response to Israel’s war against the militant group Hamas, disrupting global trade.

But India has deployed at least 10 warships that include guided missile destroyers and surveillance aircraft to police waters east of the Red Sea as it seeks to project power in the Indian Ocean in the face of the threat from Houthis and a resurgence in piracy.

The naval deployment signals India’s aspirations to be counted as a responsible power, say analysts.

“I think the scale of India’s naval deployment is quite unprecedented, and in some ways this represents the confidence the Indian navy has in its own abilities and the requirement to be seen as a benevolent regional player that is not simply looking after its own interests but also the interests of the global common,” Harsh Pant, vice president of studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, told VOA.

The Indian navy has helped at least two ships that were struck by drones and missiles since December, according to officials. But its main focus has been on conducting anti-piracy patrols. The navy said that last week it rescued two Iranian-flagged fishing vessels that had been boarded by pirates and safely released the crew members who had been taken as hostages.

“It was a little worrying for India that the pirates were striking almost in the middle of the Arabian Sea, which is far from Somalia where pirates used to strike earlier,” Captain D.K. Sharma, former navy spokesman, told VOA. “That is why this deployment has happened - to scan the area, sanitize the area.”

New Delhi hopes its navy’s presence will be a deterrent, preventing the threat to merchant vessels from spilling beyond the Red Sea. India’s trade, much of which passes through these waters, has also been impacted.

“We are one of the biggest naval forces here, and we know the world’s trade is moving through these routes and we support freedom of seas, freedom of navigation,” Sharma said.

India’s focus has long been on the army because of the country’s decades-long border disputes and hostilities with China and Pakistan in the Himalayas. However, in recent decades, India has also been acquiring more advanced ships, submarines and reconnaissance aircraft to build its naval prowess and make the country a more potent maritime force.

Commissioning a hydrographic survey ship Sunday in the southern Indian city of Visakhapatnam, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said the naval forces aim to protect both trade and regional security.

"The Indian navy has become so strong that we have become the first responder in terms of security in the Indian Ocean and Indian Pacific region," Singh said.

Boosting its naval heft in the Indian Ocean, which India calls its backyard, has become a priority for New Delhi, as it seeks both to protect the sea lanes through which its trade passes and to counter China’s growing presence. Most countries in India’s neighborhood are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative; for instance, Beijing has built ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. While China’s navy is far larger than India’s, New Delhi plans to add more than 65 new warships to its fleet.

Analysts say India has also taken a proactive role in helping counter the threat facing global trade to signal that it is an emerging power. Since taking office in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been trying to boost India’s global image.

“I feel today that India’s greater capability and our own interest and our own reputation warrant that we help out in a difficult situation,” Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said last week at a public event, referring to India’s deployment.

Traditionally, New Delhi joins only those military coalitions that the United Nations approves, but Pant said it shares the same aim as the U.S.-U.K. coalition working in the Red Sea: protecting global trade.

“Increasingly India is saying that we are willing to work with the world towards collective ends; we are not a disrupter to the global order, regional order; we want to be a responsible stakeholder,” Pant said. “So naturally if there is a crisis happening around your periphery, India has to step up to the plate and make its own contribution, whether it is small or large.”
NSB
Bangladesh will not let in any more Rohingya refugees - minister (Reuters)
Reuters [2/7/2024 8:55 AM, Ruma Paul and Sudipto Ganguly, 5239K, Neutral]
Bangladesh said on Wednesday it will not allow any more Rohingya refugees from Myanmar to enter the country because supporting the huge numbers already there threatens its own security.

Muslim Rohingya have faced persecution in Buddhist-majority Myanmar for decades and nearly a million of them live in crammed, bamboo-and-plastic camps in Bangladesh’s border district of Cox’s Bazar; most fled a military crackdown in 2017.

Myanmar’s military rulers view the Rohingya as foreign interlopers and have denied them citizenship, leaving Bangladesh with little prospect of repatriating them over the border to Rakhine from the world’s largest refugee settlement.

"We will not allow any more Rohingya to enter the country... they have already become a burden for us," Obaidul Quader, the minister for road transport and bridges, told reporters on Wednesday.

"International aid has been significantly reduced. How long can we support them?"

Several hundred more people, mostly from the Chakma ethnic group and some Rohingya, have gathered on the Myanmar border to enter Bangladesh as fighting between Myanmar’s rebel forces and its junta regime intensifies, said Mohammad Mizanur Rahman, Bangladesh’s refugee relief and repatriation commissioner based in Cox’s Bazar.

Rahman said Bangladesh was "overburdened" by Rohingya.

"It has been seven years and we have not been able to repatriate them," he said.

"Keeping Rohingya Muslims in Bangladesh has become a threat to our security, our law and order. It is creating a vulnerable situation for cross-border crime."

At least 327 border troops and police from Myanmar, some of them with bullet wounds, fled to Bangladesh over the past few days amid escalating violence, Shariful Islam, a spokesman for Bangladesh’s Border Guard said.

Minister Quader said Dhaka was in talks with India and China to ensure that neighbouring Myanmar’s internal conflict does not affect Bangladesh.

The country on Tuesday summoned Myanmar’s ambassador to protest the escalating border violence that killed two people, including a Rohingya, on the Bangladeshi side.

"The aid agencies that were providing financial support previously are also pulling back and it is creating a lot of economic stress for Bangladesh," Rahman said.

Rahman called on humanitarian organisations like the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to provide food and medical assistance to those caught in the violence in Myanmar due to ongoing conflict.

"It will ensure that people do not have to cross the border and come into Bangladesh. It will also reduce the pressure on us," he said.

The U.N refugee agency (UNHCR) did not immediately respond to request for comment on Quader’s statement.

"Over the years, Bangladesh has generously provided sanctuary to those fleeing violence," the agency previously said. "UNHCR is in constant contact with the Bangladesh authorities and continues to advocate for civilians fleeing violence to have access to safety."
Myanmar Fighting Raises Hopes, Fears in Bangladesh (VOA)
VOA [2/7/2024 7:18 PM, Sabir Mustafa, 761K, Neutral]
Growing apprehension is palpable in Bangladesh as the civil war in neighboring Myanmar inches closer to its border, with two deaths reported Tuesday when stray shells from Myanmar landed in a village in the hilly Bandarban District.

Aware of the rising threat, Bangladesh placed security forces on high alert along its 270-mile frontier with Myanmar’s restive Rakhine state, with particular focus on the Naf River that serves as a natural boundary.

Historically known as Arakan, Myanmar’s Rakhine state was the site of a brutal military crackdown in 2017 that drove more than 1 million ethnic Rohingyas to seek refuge in Bangladesh. Initially welcoming them with open arms, Bangladesh has since grown restless over their prolonged presence.

"Bangladesh shares a small border but a big issue with Myanmar," said Touhid Hossain, former foreign secretary of Bangladesh, describing the challenges of repatriation.

Although Myanmar’s ruling military junta has agreed to take back the displaced Rohingyas, it has not agreed to grant them citizenship, while many of the Rohingya themselves refuse to return to life under a military junta they distrust.

A grim picture

Reports from the sprawling Rohingya camps in coastal Cox’s Bazar, the southernmost district of Bangladesh, paint a grim picture of the nearby conflict. The sounds of gunfire and explosions in Rakhine resonate within the makeshift shelters, underscoring the reality of the situation.

The Arakan Army, a predominantly non-Rohingya rebel group fighting for an autonomous Rakhine state, launched a significant offensive last October, coordinating with other ethnic armed groups to place immense pressure on Myanmar’s ruling military, known as the Tatmadaw. Reports suggest the Tatmadaw has retaliated with artillery bombardments, causing civilian casualties, including Rohingyas in Rakhine.

The death of villagers caused by stray shelling has increased domestic pressure on the Bangladesh government. Myanmar’s ambassador in Dhaka was summoned on Tuesday to hear a "strong protest," Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud told reporters.

The Associated Press reported Monday that more than 100 members of Myanmar’s border police force, many of them wounded, have taken refuge in Bangladesh, while regional news outlets put the number at more than 225.

Concerns conflict will spread

The primary concern in Dhaka, however, is that the conflict may spill over into Bangladesh itself.

Despite these fears, some observers call it unlikely.

"There is no chance of the fighting spilling over into Bangladesh," stated Mohammad Emdadul Islam, a retired army major who headed Bangladesh’s consulate in Sittwe, Rakhine’s capital, during the late 1990s and early 2000s. He argued that the Arakan Army would likely retreat north to Chin state and then onward to Kachin, avoiding direct confrontation with Bangladesh.

Former Secretary Hossain added that armed groups and any new influx of refugees would no longer be welcome in Bangladesh, which has grappled with displaced Rohingyas three times in four decades, most recently in 2017.

The scale and duration of the latest crisis, however, far exceeds previous scenarios. In 1979 and 1992, some quarter-million Rohingya refugees were repatriated within a year of arrival. Since 2017, Dhaka’s diplomatic efforts have been stalled by the absence of safety guarantees and denials of citizenship, while broad international condemnation of Myanmar’s military as perpetrators of genocide has failed to soften the junta’s stance.

Even Dhaka’s efforts to have China broker a deal with the Tatmadaw have yet to produce results.

But Islam, who has experience working with Myanmar’s military, said the southeast Asian country’s history of self-sufficiency and its insular outlook make it unusually resistant to international pressure, regardless of China’s stance.

Against this backdrop, observers like Hossain in Dhaka see the recent escalation in fighting as a potential opportunity for change.

"Bangladesh has nothing to gain from the status quo," said Hossain, emphasizing the need for progress in negotiations.

Others, such as Dhaka-based international affairs researcher Md Himel Rahman, view the situation with trepidation.

"If the [Arakan Army] wins this war, Bangladesh will share borders with an unrecognized statelet," he wrote in The Diplomat. "If the [Arakan Army] loses this war, Bangladesh could witness an influx of disguised [Arakan Army] fighters into its territory."

Hossain, however, remains hopeful that negotiations involving the pro-democracy National Unity Government (NUG), formed by elements of the ousted civilian government, could play a significant role in resolving the crisis. He also sees the Arakan Army as a potential key player in the process.

On the eve of the coup’s third anniversary, the NUG has reiterated its commitment to ending the military’s political rule and transitioning the country back to civilian governance through negotiations. That potentially leaves the door open for talks, provided Myanmar’s military accepts the NUG’s political objectives.

Hossain believes that both the NUG and the Arakan Army could be pivotal in resolving the Rohingya crisis, pointing out that the NUG has already recognized the Rohingyas as citizens and promised them security and rights. He calls for Bangladesh to establish an informal channel of communication with the groups.

Islam, on the other hand, remains skeptical that the fighting bodes well for Bangladesh. He believes the Tatmadaw’s policy toward Bangladesh is driven by deeply rooted concerns that a massive influx of Bangladeshi migrants — including the displaced Rohingya whom they often demean as "illegal Bengalis" — will return to Rakhine. (The Rohingya are a Muslim minority seen by many Myanmar Buddhists as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, a contentious claim that lacks strong historical evidence.)

Further complicating Dhaka’s management of the crisis — the geopolitical rivalry between India and China.

Beijing’s $7.3 billion Bay of Bengal deep-sea port in Kyaukphyu on the Rakhine coast, which has been in development since 2010, is expected to give China strategic access to the Indian Ocean, allowing it to bypass the narrow Strait of Malacca through which some 80% of its oil imports now arrive from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, India’s development of a port in Sittwe got underway in 2023. It is the first node of a $484 million project aimed at connecting greater India with its landlocked northeast through western Myanmar’s Rakhine and Chin states, bypassing Bangladesh.

Amid those challenges, Bangladesh is left to manage a delicate balancing act while hoping for a resolution to the Rohingya crisis and a peaceful resolution to the conflict on its border with Myanmar.
ITFC signs deal to fund $2.1 bln of Bangladesh oil, gas imports (Reuters)
Reuters [2/7/2024 6:37 AM, Ruma Paul, 5239K, Negative]
The International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) on Wednesday signed a $2.1 billion financing plan with Bangladesh to fund the country’s oil and gas imports, energy officials said.

Bangladesh has struggled to pay for imported fuel and gas because of dwindling local reserves since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, forcing the country to turn last year to the International Monetary Fund for a $4.7 billion bailout.

"ITFC has been cooperating with us in oil imports for a long time. Now $500 million can be used to import gas, which will help solve the gas crisis," State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid told reporters after the deal was signed in Dhaka.

Under the agreement, the Jeddah-based ITFC will finance the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to import oil and Petrobangla to import liquefied natural gas.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves fell below $20 billion at the end of January, central bank data showed, which can cover only four months of imports while six months of import bills are considered adequate.
IMF Warns Of Maldives Foreign Debt Crisis, After China Borrowing (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [2/7/2024 6:10 AM, Staff, 163K, Neutral]
The strategically-placed Indian Ocean nation of the Maldives, which has borrowed heavily from China and shifted allegiance from India, is at high risk of "debt distress," the IMF warned Wednesday.

Beijing has pledged more funding for the Maldives since pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu took power in November.

Muizzu thanked China last month for its "selfless assistance" for development funds after a visit to Beijing.

The International Monetary Fund did not give details of the Maldives’ foreign debt but said there was a need for "urgent policy adjustment".

"Without significant policy changes, the overall fiscal deficits and public debt are projected to stay elevated," the IMF said after a review of the country’s economy.

"The Maldives remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress".

The archipelago, famed for its white sand beaches and where tourism accounts for nearly a third of the economy, has recovered economically from the Covid-19 pandemic.

But while a planned airport expansion and an increase in hotels are projected to boost growth, the IMF said "uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high and risks are tilted to the downside."

Muizzu’s mentor, former president Abdulla Yameen, who ruled for five years until 2018, borrowed heavily from Beijing for construction projects.

That left it owing 42 percent of its more than $3 billion foreign debt to China in 2021, according to the World Bank, citing the Maldives’ finance ministry.

Muizzu, who has requested that Indian troops operating three reconnaissance aircraft in the Maldives leave by May 10, has vowed to strengthen his military to defend the country’s vast maritime territory.

Global east-west shipping lanes pass through the nation’s chain of 1,192 tiny coral islands, stretching around 800 kilometres (500 miles) across the equator.
‘There To Die’: Nepali Mercenaries Fight For Russia In Ukraine (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [2/8/2024 2:16 AM, Paavan Mathema, 304K, Neutral]
Nepali mercenaries are fighting for Russia in Ukraine, lured to kill far from their Himalayan homeland by promises of a passport and cash, but wounded returnees warn anyone tempted to join the war: "Do not come."

While Nepali soldiers-for-hire can bank in a month nearly double what they could earn in a year back home, conditions are brutal and many have been killed or wounded.

"I watched my friends die in front of me," said Surya Sharma, who asked to use a pseudonym for legal reasons.

"Nepalis going probably cannot even imagine how horrific the war is."

Shortly after the 24-year-old underwent basic training with Russian forces, his unit was attacked on their way to a frontline in eastern Ukraine.

"When the bombs and bullets were raining, I thought my life was ending, that that was it," he said. "I was there to die."

Combining tough Himalayan terrain with grinding poverty, Nepal has long been a source of ferocious soldiers to fight others’ wars, with the British army’s Gurkhas the best-known example.

But it is only legal for Nepalis to sign up for combat with a foreign military if there is a government agreement in place -- which only applies to Britain and India.

From early on in its war in Ukraine, Russia has used mercenaries, including the paramilitary group Wagner, before its aborted mutiny last June.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine will provide figures for how many foreign fighters are in their militaries, nor the number they are holding as prisoners of war.

But the Nepali government says more than 200 of the country’s citizens have enlisted in the Russian army since it invaded Ukraine two years ago.

Sharma believes there could be 10 times as many, including students, ex-soldiers and even former Maoist combatants.

"We were among the early ones to join, but now there are many Nepalis, there must be 2,500 to 3,000," he said.

At least 12 Nepalis have been killed and another five are prisoners of war in Ukraine, the foreign ministry in Kathmandu said.

Returnees say the true number of dead is also much higher, and according to local media Nepalis have fought for Ukraine too.

To attract fighters, Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered Russian citizenship -- which allows recipients to work -- on top of monthly salaries as high as $2,200.

That tempts some in a country with a GDP per capita of little more than $1,300, according to the World Bank -- one of the lowest in Asia.

Videos by Nepali recruits undergoing military training in Russia started to surface on TikTok last year, prompting one former veteran to enlist in July.

"It is a war, and we are taking a risk," the 39-year-old told AFP, asking not to be named because of the illegality of his actions.

The man, who had served for more than a decade in Nepal’s army before working for the police in Dubai, accumulated about $15,000 in six months before being wounded and having to return to Nepal, and is using it to build a house.

"If there were good employment opportunities in Nepal, no one would go," he added.

Sharma, the 24-year-old, suffers searing pain every step he takes from the metal fragments buried in his legs.

He says he was duped by a Nepali agent.

Every year, hundreds of thousands of Nepalis seek employment abroad -- 400,000 officially, many others illicitly -- and many pay agents thousands of dollars to facilitate their journeys.

Sharma borrowed money to go to Russia on a student visa but discovered he was not allowed to work, and the only job he found was to fight.

"I had loans to pay at home and couldn’t send money," he said in his rented room in Kathmandu.

Despite having no prior military experience, he "chose to join the army because I had heard that the money was good. It was not because I wanted to, but my situation forced me to."

He underwent a medical check-up before two months of basic training.

"I was employed with the government, but I’ve heard there are Nepalis fighting in private forces too," he said.

The recruits -- 15 of them Nepalis -- woke at six to start the drills.

"We learnt firing positions, how to make bunkers and how to target drones," he said.

But "the language is also a problem", he added. "We cannot understand the instructions they give, and in the battleground that can be dangerous."

Sent to the frontlines in Ukraine, Sharma’s unit -- mostly Russian, with six Nepalis -- was ambushed even before they reached Kupiansk in the east.

Explosions killed several of Sharma’s comrades and he was wounded in the legs and hand.

"Sometimes it felt like a movie."

He spent months in hospital before deserting as he neared recovery to seek help from Nepal’s embassy in Moscow.

"I just couldn’t return" to the front, he said. "So, I took a risk to return to Nepal, thinking I will either go to jail or home."

Nepal has banned its citizens from working in Russia or Ukraine in any capacity, to try to prevent their recruitment.

At least 12 people have been arrested in Nepal for sending people to fight for Russia.

The men are often taken via India or the United Arab Emirates and taught elaborate lies to dupe authorities, say police.

"Nepal is a country that believes in non-alignment and in peace," Nepal’s Foreign Minister NP Saud told AFP.

"We do not have an agreement with Russia and have requested immediate return of those people."

The Russian embassy in Kathmandu did not respond to requests for comment.

Speaking to AFP by phone from his Russian hospital bed, one wounded Nepali warned his countrymen to resist the lure.

"No matter how much you prepare, it does not work when the bombs fall and the drones attack," said the 27-year-old.

"I request others -- do not come."
Sri Lanka in talks to push wind projects forward, minister says (Reuters)
Reuters [2/8/2024 1:25 AM, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sudarshan Varadhan, 5.2M, Neutral]
Sri Lanka is hopeful of making progress by next month on two delayed wind energy projects to be built by India’s Adani Green Energy Ltd, its energy minister said on Wednesday.

The cash-strapped south Asian island nation, which has suffered from crippling power blackouts and fuel shortages, has been trying to speed green power generation to hedge against surges in imported fuel costs, but the wind projects are still being evaluated because of disputes over pricing and plant efficiency.

"Maybe in the next four weeks, we will see some results on the negotiation process, and there is another negotiation for the transmission lines that is also being evaluated," Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the India Energy Week event in Goa.

"Both are (happening) simultaneously, so I am hopeful that by March, we will have something," he said.

Adani, which won approvals to invest $442 million in the wind projects in February 2023, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Hydropower, coal-fired plants and oil-based power plants each account for nearly a third of the country’s electricity output. The government has committed to not add any new coal-based capacity and aims to produce 70% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

Neighbouring India recently proposed supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to help Sri Lanka produce power at two plants, and Wijesekera said India’s state-run Petronet LNG and plant officials were "working out the mechanics" on shipping LNG.

"It is positively progressing. We should have something maybe in the next three to four weeks," he said.

In November, Sri Lanka approved a proposal by China’s Sinopec (600028.SS), opens new tab to build a $4.5 billion oil refinery in Hambantota, where China built a port. Wijesekera said the contract has been awarded and the government had made clarifications Sinopec had sought on land clearance, water availability, taxes and concessions.
Central Asia
A New Prime Minister In Kazakhstan To Tackle The Same Old Problems (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/7/2024 4:48 PM, Chris Rickleton, 223K, Neutral]
“Active work without formalities, bureaucracy, and unnecessary meetings. More deeds, fewer words.”

This was how Kazakhstan’s new Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov summed up his philosophy on government on February 6, the same day he was parachuted into the position from his prior role as President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev’s chief of staff.

The second sentence here is key: More deeds, fewer words.

Because in Kazakhstan, speaking is for presidents, not prime ministers.

The following day, 70-year-old Toqaev spoke for more than an hour in an address to an expanded session of government.

As he spoke, Kazakhstan’s mainstream media fired off headlines.

“Toqaev gave the government a year to solve problems in the construction industry.”

“Toqaev criticized the situation with the roads in Kazakhstan.”

“Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev ordered a doubling of the funding for agriculture.”

“Toqaev: The Water Resources Ministry is not delivering the expected results.”

“Toqaev gave instructions on tariffs for public services.”

“Toqaev: ‘Every heating season, the same problems’”

Most of these are old gripes. All of them are now the 43-year-old Bektenov’s responsibility.

While asking lawmakers in the president-loyal parliament for their support -- 69 backed his candidacy, with seven abstaining -- Bektenov did not pretend to have an independent policymaking vision.

“The head of state has provided specific instructions regarding the economic development of the country, which will be carried out,” he said.

But will Bektenov -- Kazakhstan’s first prime minister with a law enforcement background -- be able to “carry out” those instructions any better than his predecessor?

No. 2 Is The Loneliest Number

Alikhan Smaiylov became Kazakh prime minister in January 2022, in the immediate aftermath of the country’s worst independence-era unrest, when at least 238 people were killed.

Serving as first deputy prime minister prior to that, he replaced Askar Mamin, who had been appointed by Nursultan Nazarbaev just before the then-Kazakh leader resigned presidential power and allowed Toqaev, who was Senate chairman at the time, to step up as head of state.

At just less than two years and one month, Smaiylov’s was the third-shortest of the 11 completed premierships in Kazakhstan’s 32 years of independence.

But for all that, he did not fall very far from the median time afforded to a Kazakh head of government -- two years and five months.

In fact, he served in the role for a similar length of time to Toqaev, who managed two years and four months in the role just more than two decades ago.

It is when presidents start grumbling about government performance -- often echoing irritations expressed by the public -- that power starts draining from Kazakh premiers.

In this sense, Smaiylov had been a dead man walking for some time.

He survived a government shake up after parliamentary elections last spring and more rotations in the fall. But talk of a new prime minister had persisted since his first year in office.

Assessing Smaiylov’s government on February 6, Toqaev was conciliatory, noting economic growth of 5.1 percent last year and a “positive dynamic of development” as a “significant achievement.”

But in his February 7 speech at the expanded session of government he called for regular annual growth of 6 percent in the coming years and stressed economic liberalization, modernization, and an all-government drive to drum up foreign investment as priorities.

The problem with that, according to Kazakh political analyst Dimash Alzhanov, is that Kazakhstan’s current political system leaves little space for initiative on the part of ministers and their cabinet chief.

“Both the prime minister and the cabinet of ministers are fully accountable to the president. Under these conditions, presidential absolutism is a serious limitation on government activities,” Alzhanov told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service.

The Smaiylov premiership could be seen as both “a victim and a consequence” of this situation, Alzhanov argued.

Following a quick reshuffle, the vast majority of officials from Smaiylov’s cabinet have retained their posts, with fresh appointments to head the Economics, Finance, Health, and Emergencies ministries, giving an indication of where Toqaev is seeking immediate improvement.

A New Generation Of Officials

If Smaiylov’s dismissal had seemed to be in the cards, then Bektenov replacing him proved a surprise to many observers.

To be sure, chiefs of staff have become premiers in the past, and vice versa, but Bektenov has been a fairly low-profile operator to date.

Up until his appointment -- and unlike several of his cabinet colleagues -- he did not even have an English-language Wikipedia page.

Praising his protege in parliament, Toqaev called Bektenov “disciplined, honest, and hardworking” while praising his “high organization skills” and “extensive knowledge in economics and other areas.”

Before spending 10 months as Toqaev’s chief of staff, Bektenov led the Anti-Corruption Agency, a position to which he was promoted from deputy in the wake of the January 2022 unrest that left hundreds dead and brought an end to Nazarbaev’s domination of political life.

As evidence emerged that lethal clashes in Kazakh cities had been at least partly driven by a high-stakes power struggle between the political camps surrounding the two men, Bektenov’s agency was at the heart of investigations targeting Nazarbaev allies and some of the former president’s relatives.

The lawyer by training has also been at the center of efforts to recover and repatriate billions of dollars of stolen assets belonging to the ex-ruling clan and other Nazarbaev associates.

Having a premier who is a lieutenant general by rank might help whip Kazakhstan’s cabinet into shape in the short term.

But the government’s economic performance won’t be the only thing on Toqaev’s mind.

Having only really enjoyed the kind of powers enjoyed by his overbearing predecessor for the last two years, the career diplomat is now busy recasting the elite in his own image.

That process will be all the more important to him in that he has pledged not to extend his presidency beyond his current term, which ends in 2029.

Bektenov is part of a new generation of officials who, while beginning their careers under the octogenarian Nazarbaev, owe their first leadership-level positions solely to the current president.

His replacement as chief of staff, Aybek Dadebaev, is the same age as Bektenov and previously occupied lower-ranking positions in Toqaev’s administration.

Marat Nurtleu, 47, a long-time protege of Toqaev’s, is currently serving as foreign minister, having been chief of staff prior to Bektenov’s appointment in the spring.

The new emergency situations minister, 40-year-old Chyngis Arinov, was at the beginning of this week serving as the head of Toqaev’s presidential security.

And Nurlan Baibazarov, the 49-year-old economy minister -- a post that comes with the rank of deputy prime minister -- is a cabinet debutant, having been moved across from the state-owned Baiterek financial holding group, where he spent just a few months in charge.

Bektenov’s age of 43 years and 56 days at the time of his appointment, incidentally, makes him Kazakhstan’s youngest ever prime minister -- a record that can also be extended to include the period when Kazakhstan was a Soviet republic.

His closest rival for that honor?

Nursultan Nazarbaev, who was about half a year older than Bektenov when he was appointed chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic in 1984.
Controversial Kyrgyz ‘Foreign Representatives’ Bill on Cusp of Becoming Law (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [2/7/2024 1:14 PM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Neutral]
Kyrgyzstan’s controversial “foreign representatives” bill is on the cusp of becoming law, even though opposition to the draft law has been loud and consistent since the idea was resurrected from the ashes of a 2016 effort in 2023 by Nadira Narmatova.

The latest to voice concern are the director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), Matteo Mecacci, and the OSCE representative on Freedom of the Media (RFoM), Teresa Ribeiro.

“Protecting freedom of association and other human rights is fundamental to every democracy,” Mecacci said in a press release. “If this legislation is adopted, I am worried it would have an overwhelmingly negative impact on civil society, human rights defenders, and the media in Kyrgyzstan. We call on the Parliament to reconsider this bill and stand ready to provide our support.”

Ribeiro noted in her comments that the draft law would introduce “burdensome reporting requirements” that are “likely to prove unsustainable for small and medium-sized media organizations, and will pose significant risks to media freedom and open debate on issues of public interest in Kyrgyzstan.”

Given Kyrgyzstan’s small media market, and the financial difficulties faced by media around the world, it is perhaps unsurprising that many of Kyrgyzstan’s best media outlets (such as Kloop and RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service) are supported by external backers. While the law is not specifically targeted at media, the conflation of foreign funding with foreign influence will arguably harm media in Kyrgyzstan, alongside other NGOs.

“It is especially concerning that the amendments in question aim at introducing nearly total government control over the right to free expression of civil society and media actors,” Ribeiro said. “The mere possibility of criminal sanctions in case of non-compliance with the proposed legislation will have a significant chilling effect on media freedom and freedom of expression in the country.”

On January 22, the Jogorku Kenesh’s committee for constitutional laws approved the draft bill’s second reading, setting it up for a full parliamentary consideration and, if passed on its third reading, signature into law by President Sadyr Japarov.

Kloop reported on February 6 that the bill had been submitted for discussion in parliament, but on February 7 RFE/RL reported that discussion had been postponed for unknown reasons.

In its report on the draft bill this week, Kloop noted several specific changes made in the second reading that make it even more restrictive. The changes Kloop highlighted included the requirement that any foreign NGO wanting to operate in Kyrgyzstan would have to register a representative office or branch in the country. Furthermore, if an NGO’s activities have been suspended under the law, the organization would be prohibited from most banking activities, other than administrative expenses – this would effectively halt an organization’s activities immediately.

Kloop also highlighted that the period for the law to come into force was reduced from three months to just 10 days; in addition, the period for the Cabinet of Ministers to prepare by-laws on related regulation was shortened from six months to a month. Together these changes mean that once passed, implementation of the law may be swift and haphazard.

Parliamentary deputy Dastan Bekeshev said after the second reading that the law would “be used as a weapon.”

In Russia, the 2012 law on which the Kyrgyz draft bill is clearly based has been used effectively to crush NGOs and punish government critics. It was further expanded in 2022 and 2023.

Nine international human rights organizations urged the Kyrgyz parliament to reject the bill after the second reading in late January. Their statement laid out many of the most serious concerns about the legislation, from its broad definition of “political activities” to the way the law’s label “foreign representative” is stigmatizing and discrediting.

“If adopted and signed into law, the ‘foreign representatives’ bill is likely to have far-reaching implications for Kyrgyzstan’s vibrant civil society because most groups receive foreign funding due to the lack of domestic sources,” the human rights organizations noted.

In their statement, they also pointed out that opposition to the bill is widespread in Kyrgyzstan. In September 2023, when the bill was proposed, 120 Kyrgyzstani NGOs appealed to parliament to drop it, arguing that “the bill, if adopted, will have a negative effect on all [NGOs], including charitable and humanitarian organizations that provide social services to the population.”

Nevertheless, the bill has progressed. It’s not clear when the third reading will take place or whether there will be any kind of significant debate in parliament about it. If passed, Japarov is expected to sign it swiftly and as noted above by Kloop’s reporting, implementation may be swift.
Incarceration Of 11 Kyrgyz Journalists Condemned By CPJ Media Watchdog (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/7/2024 6:32 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has condemned a Kyrgyz court’s decision to uphold the two-month pretrial detention of 11 current and former employees of the anti-corruption investigative media group Temirov Live.

The CPJ called the journalists’ incarceration "an unprecedented assault on press freedom in modern Kyrgyz history."

"Authorities should immediately release all 11 detained current and former journalists of Temirov Live, withdraw the trumped-up charges against them, and end their crackdown on independent reporting," CPJ’s Europe and Central Asia program coordinator Gulnoza Said said.

In several hearings between February 1 and February 6, the Bishkek City Court rejected the appeals of current Temirov Live reporters Makhabat Tajibek-kyzy, Aike Beishekeeva, Akyl Orozbekov, Sapar Akunbekov, and Azamat Ishenbekov, and the investigative group’s former reporters Aktilek Kaparov, Tynystan Asypbekov, Joodar Buzumov, Saipidin Sultanaliev, Maksat Tajibek-uulu, and Jumabek Turdaliev in New York.

The journalists were detained on January 16 after police searched their homes and offices on a charge of "calls for disobedience and mass riots" over the group’s reporting.

A day before that, the State Committee for National Security (UKMK) briefly detained for questioning the director and two editors of the independent 24.kg news agency after searching their homes and offices in a case of "propagating war" because of the outlet’s coverage of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Kyrgyzstan’s civil society and free press have traditionally been the most vibrant in Central Asia, but that has changed amid a deepening government crackdown.

Last month, eight international human rights groups -- Civil Rights Defenders, Human Rights Watch, International Partnership for Human Rights, Norwegian Helsinki Committee, People In Need, Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, International Federation for Human Rights, and the World Organization Against Torture -- called on the Kyrgyz government to stop its crackdown on independent media, calling the reporters’ arrests "intimidation and harassment" of journalists to keep them from carrying out their work.
Documentary Renews Focus on Religious Freedom in Uzbekistan (VOA)
VOA [2/7/2024 3:33 PM, Navbahor Imamova, 761K, Neutral]
With his pardon of thousands of prisoners and removal of more than 18,000 citizens from a notorious blacklist after coming to office in 2016, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev raised hopes that religious freedom in Uzbekistan – the lingering source of criticism over the country’s human rights record – was set to improve after decades of repression.

Oqlanmagan – Unexonerated is a new documentary by the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs. It reveals that Uzbekistan still has a long way to go. The film also echoes some recommendations made by U.S. experts, who recently toured Uzbekistan to examine the issue at the invitation of the government.

Noah Tucker, who produced Oqlanmagan with a team in Uzbekistan, told VOA the film amplifies the voices “we do not normally hear, and confronts the broader public, the government of Uzbekistan and the international community with questions about whose suffering counts, whose pain is real and legible.”

Focusing on individuals unfairly labeled “extremists” under Islam Karimov, the republic’s former dictator who governed for more than a quarter of a century, the film describes an Islamic revival that began in Uzbekistan in the late 1980s, as a growing sense of national and Muslim identity fueled resistance to Soviet rule.

Following independence in 1991, things quickly went wrong. “Despite publicly embracing democracy and Islam, Karimov saw both movements as a threat to his continued power,” highlights the documentary. By 2000, Karimov had introduced wide-ranging restrictions on the free exercise of religion, saying they were needed to combat extremism and radicalism.

Oqlanmagan documents how authorities arrested “tens of thousands of practicing Muslims … forcing them to sign pre-written confessions that resulted in decades-long prison sentences on charges of terrorism and treason.” Many were subjected to torture and accused of attempting to overthrow the government.

Upon taking office in 2016, President Mirziyoyev acknowledged a pattern of systemic abuse, called for the release of religious prisoners, and abandoned the Karimov-era blacklist naming individuals who were suspected of extremism but had not committed any crime. Many expected the new administration to quickly exonerate all those who had been arbitrarily imprisoned.

Eight years later, however, the system still has not acted on thousands of cases that families see as unlawful convictions. In 2021, it adopted a law that reinforced religious restrictions reminiscent of the Karimov era.

Oqlanmagan features human rights activist Ahmadjon Madumarov, whose three sons were imprisoned on charges of membership in Hizb-ut-Tahrir, an organization that is banned in Uzbekistan, the rest of Central Asia and most of the Muslim world but that is legal in the United States and most of Europe. Collectively, they served 60 years in prison, with their sentences repeatedly extended on vague pretexts.

For Madumarov, Karimov’s rule is synonymous with political repression and the isolation of Uzbekistan from the wider world.

Habibullo, one of the sons who spent more than 21 years behind bars, says he believes many were locked up because the regime saw them as critics.

Expert recommendations and how Tashkent sees the issue

In recent years, prominent reports by the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom and Ahmed Shaheed, the former U.N. special rapporteur on freedom of religion, have praised Mirziyoyev’s steps forward on religious freedom, while calling on authorities to release and rehabilitate remaining prisoners and do more to curtail the still wide-ranging powers of the security services.

Tashkent has reacted coldly to these assessments, insisting the country holds no religious or political prisoners.

But in January, Uzbekistan invited a group of U.S. experts to meet policymakers, religious leaders and civil society. The delegation told VOA that, in contrast to earlier visits to assess religious freedom in Uzbekistan, they felt free to interact with ordinary citizens.

During a January 29 discussion in Washington, the Uzbek ambassador to the U.S., Furqat Sidiqov, said his government is “committed to improving the human rights situation.”

"This is a very important issue for us. We have a comprehensive, open, constructive dialogue with the United States. There’s not any issue that we cannot discuss,” he said.

Sidiqov argued that Tashkent takes steps not to please external actors but for the benefit of the nation.

Describing religious tolerance and openness as critical prerequisites for good governance, Sidiqov acknowledged, “Of course, there are issues and problems. It’s natural, but our approach is different now.”

Chris Seiple, a member of the delegation and president emeritus of the Institute for Global Engagement, sees Central Asia as a tough neighborhood that has “never had experience with an unregulated religious space.”

“In every single interview, even when the government was not in the room, human rights activists agreed on one thing: today versus the previous administration, it is incomparably better than before. Most of them also say that there are areas that, if improved, would enhance Uzbekistan’s security as a state and for its citizens,” Seiple said.

In his analysis, the government’s approach to religious freedom is driven by concerns about extremism and terrorism, even though the country has not suffered a terrorist attack since 2004. The most serious attack, which killed 16 and injured more than 100 in 1999, was blamed on the Islamist Movement of Uzbekistan, whose remnants are still reportedly active in Afghanistan.

Nadine Maenza, president of the International Religious Freedom Secretariat and former chair of USCIRF, who also traveled to Uzbekistan, says citizens lack clarity from the state about how they can legally practice their faith.

Like other experts, she worries that intensifying control over the Muslim majority results in sporadic harassment. The government should “define religious extremism precisely in legal terms, ensuring that this definition is transparent and publicly available,” she suggested.

Maenza urges the Uzbek government to work with local and international legal experts to differentiate between peaceful religious expression and actions genuinely constituting a security threat.

Tucker, the producer of Oqlanmagan, observes that political leaders relying too heavily on security services often come up with the wrong policies. But like many in Uzbekistan, he believes that under Mirziyoyev, the country has been able to embrace Islam more openly than before. He encourages the administration not to abandon this process.

“The easiest way to [diminish] this is to claim that ordinary things people began to do as the result of reforms — growing beards, girls wearing hijab in schools, et cetera — is a sign of danger,” Tucker told VOA.

“This is another reason we made the film: to give the political establishment, the public, and the international community access to another source of information about what’s happening on the ground.”
Twitter
Afghanistan
NGO Working Group on Women, Peace and Security
@ngowgwps
[2/7/2024 10:46 AM, 9.3K followers, 38 retweets, 45 likes]
As the UN prepares to convene Special Envoys on #Afghanistan in Doha this month, our message to Secretary-General @AntonioGuterres is simple: women’s rights must be a priority, and Afghan women must be at the table. Read our letter: https://wps.ngo/afgh-letter-2024

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[2/7/2024 2:03 PM, 62.2K followers, 7 retweets, 29 likes]
Read this! @ngowgwps outlines major concerns about how the UN will ensure full participation by Afghan women--and respect for women’s rights--in the upcoming Afghanistan envoys’ meeting and other steps implementing recommendations of the Security Council-ordered assessment.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[2/7/2024 2:12 PM, 62.2K followers, 34 retweets, 70 likes]
.@hrw @amnesty & others call for Afghan women to be full participants in Feb 18-19 @UN meeting on Afghanistan. Shutting them out-again-"would undermine faith in the intl community’s commitment to uphold women’s rts & the credibility of the Doha meeting." https://www.womenpeacesecurity.org/resource/letter-afghanistan-secretary-general-2024/

Nilofar Ayoubi
@NilofarAyoubi
[2/7/2024 12:37 PM, 63K followers, 22 retweets, 50 likes]
I am eagerly anticipating how the Taliban will attempt to justify their heinous crimes against Women of Afghanistan, during the #Doha2 conference, and I am curious to see if and how the international community will hold them accountable for their actions.

Amine Azarm Nezami
@amina_azarm
[2/7/2024 3:10 AM, 3.6K followers, 5 retweets, 15 likes]
Taliban tell all kinds of lies to "whitewash" their autocratic rule. While millions of girls in Afghanistan are deprived of the right to education in these two years, @UNICEF cannot consider the end of its work in these two years successful and great.

Suhail Shaheen
@suhailshaheen1
[2/7/2024 2:32 PM, 722.7K followers, 9 retweets, 118 likes]
Today, in Doha, I met Mr Indrika Ratwatte, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator and discussed with him UN humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, basic needs and scaling up of skills. Grateful for his efforts.
Pakistan
BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[2/8/2024 12:40 AM, 5.1M followers, 261 retweets, 622 likes]
Mobile phone services must be restored immediately across the country have asked my party to approach both ECP and the courts for this purpose.

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[2/7/2024 7:41 AM, 5.1M followers, 6.5K retweets, 7.1K likes]
It is truly unfortunate that PMLN did not agree to a debate for PM candidates. One myth I hoped to address is the fiction that due to PMLN, Punjab performs better than other provinces. As Hafiz Pasha ‘s book; ‘Human Security in Pakistan’ demonstrates. Sindh now preforms better than Punjab in many areas. Such as governance, freedom from want, freedom from fear, gross regional income and human security over all. PMLN knows this and this is why they ran away from a debate.

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[2/7/2024 7:41 AM, 5.1M followers, 4.6K retweets, 4.7K likes]
Unfortunately the media perpetuates the myth of PMLNs performance. The people know the truth. IA the people will vote for real performance over ‘showbazi’ tomorrow.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/7/2024 9:59 AM, 205.9K followers, 806 retweets, 1.9K likes]
Years from now, Pakistan’s 2024 election will be looked back on as a grim reminder that history can be both tragedy and farce at the same time. My new essay for @TIMEIdeas on Pakistan’s surreal election: https://time.com/6692240/pakistan-election-tragedy-farce/

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/8/2024 12:07 AM, 205.9K followers, 34 retweets, 71 likes]
It’s clear, based on the steps they took as soon as the polls opened, that the powers that be remain concerned about the PTI’s possible electoral impact. Especially its turnout potential. The party has been badly weakened and hollowed out, and yet it still has them worried.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/7/2024 11:25 PM, 205.9K followers, 430 retweets, 784 likes]
There’s much talk about high turnout as a decisive factor in Pakistan’s election. But it could be for naught if there is pervasive rigging. Banning entrance/exit polls and suspending mobile phone services don’t bode well. This could be very demoralizing for the voting public.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/7/2024 11:05 PM, 205.9K followers, 2.5K retweets, 4.2K likes]
Pakistan has suspended mobile phone services nationwide, citing security concerns. This is an ominous start to election day. The move violates multiple high court rulings since 2018. Security concerns were greater in 2018 and 2013, and I don’t recall a move like this back then.

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/7/2024 10:53 PM, 205.9K followers, 114 retweets, 253 likes]
What has happened in the lead-up to Pakistan’s election is not new, but the backdrop it has played out against may be unique. This week for @ForeignPolicy I look at what’s at stake as Pakistanis go to the polls. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/07/pakistan-elections-economy-crisis-military-imran-khan/

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[2/8/2024 12:12 AM, 8.3M followers, 1.3K retweets, 2.8K likes]
Federal Government suspended internet services on election day in violation of Sindh High Court orders. This contempt of court is an evidence that powerful people of this country have no respect for the courts. Where is Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa today? https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1155101-shc-upholds-injunction-ordering-uninterrupted-internet-access-till-polls

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[2/8/2024 12:06 AM, 8.3M followers, 1.7K retweets, 4.6K likes]
Suspension of mobile phone & internet services in many parts of the country on #Election2024 day created doubts on the fairness of election. Voters cannot use the facility of 8300 to identify their votes. Come out and cast your votes to defeat all conspiracies.

Kamran Khan
@AajKamranKhan
[2/7/2024 8:36 AM, 5.6M followers, 692 retweets, 3K likes]
Just a day before the election, the results are clearly written on the wall: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), confirmed as the most popular party by all opinion polls, has been decimated from the electoral arena. Its presence on the ballot paper has vanished, its leadership arrested or forced underground, and its attempts at election rallies suppressed under oppressive administrative measures. PTI’s efforts to reach its supporters through web portals have also been thwarted. This is now an urgent call to action for Nawaz Sharif and PML-N: seize the moment and ensure an outright majority in Punjab. The severe routing of PTI and Imran Khan presents Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with an unprecedented opportunity. These are truly "gotta" moments for Nawaz Sharif. Let’s see if he can still seize the moment tomorrow

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[2/7/2024 9:25 PM, 41.9K followers, 6 retweets, 42 likes]
Hopes for election day in Pakistan as it begins after a marred election season: that there’s no violence, voter turnout is high, voters are able to cast their votes freely, and vote counting is transparent.

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[2/7/2024 6:06 AM, 77.8K followers, 4.1K retweets, 7.8K likes]
PAKISTAN: Amnesty International is deeply alarmed by the lethal and targeted violence on offices, residences and election convoys of election candidates and political parties, particularly in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The two deadly attacks in Balochistan outside election offices today, leaving at least 24 dead, follow dozens of attacks in the last 30 days, including on 10 and 31 January 2024 resulting in the death of 2 candidates. As Pakistan prepares for its General Election to be held tomorrow (8 February 2024), @amnesty is concerned about the pre-election violence, selective bans on protests and gatherings; harassment, arbitrary arrest and detention of party workers and candidates; media restrictions; internet and social media disruptions; and trials of political opponents with little due process. 1/2

Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[2/7/2024 6:06 AM, 77.8K followers, 1K retweets, 2K likes]
Amnesty International urges the caretaker government to ensure compliance with its human rights obligations during and after the elections by:
- ensuring uninterrupted access to the internet;
- ending media restrictions;
- lifting all restrictions on assembly and protest;
- providing access to a fair trial and due process rights to all political opponents under Pakistan’s international human rights obligations; and
- conducting investigations into the targeted attacks on political workers and candidates, holding suspected perpetrators to account through fair trials without recourse to the death penalty. 2/2
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/7/2024 3:39 AM, 95.2M followers, 17K retweets, 31K likes]
Speaking in the Rajya Sabha. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1ZkKzjvnzbXKv

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[2/7/2024 5:00 AM, 24M followers, 626 retweets, 5.5K likes]
President Droupadi Murmu travelled in Delhi Metro and interacted with school children during the ride. President Murmu also flagged off shuttle bus service between Central Secretariat Metro Station (Gate 4) and Amrit Udyan (Gate 35) for visitors coming to Amrit Udyan at every interval of 30 minutes from 9.30 am to 5.00 pm.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[2/7/2024 11:46 AM, 3M followers, 154 retweets, 1.4K likes]
Pleased to welcome Bangladesh Foreign Minister @DrHasanMahmud62 on his first official visit to India. Discussed steps to forge ahead in our vibrant and people-centric partnership. Also exchanged views on regional and international developments.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[2/7/2024 8:07 AM, 3M followers, 171 retweets, 1.6K likes]
Welcome to India, FM Dr. Hasan Mahmud of Bangladesh. Our discussions today will strengthen India-Bangladesh Maitri.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[2/7/2024 7:36 AM, 3M followers, 179 retweets, 1.5K likes]
Today, in the motion of thanks on Rashtrapati ji’s address in the Rajya Sabha, Prime Minister @narendramodi ji clearly conveyed the reason behind the nation’s confidence. Modi Sarkar’s focus on Garib, Yuva, Annadata and Nari is transforming lives and upgrading standards of living for every section of the society. From strengthening PSUs to forging the spirit of cooperative federalism; moving from Fragile 5 to Top 5, trust in Modi’s Guarantee is taking the country forward. PM’s address laid a credible roadmap for the next 5 years towards a Viksit Bharat. https://youtube.com/live/gnEsHc-0VRQ?si=ZjCFWt7skUwuXR0g
NSB
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh
@BDMOFA
[2/7/2024 7:29 AM, 33.5K followers, 15 retweets, 78 likes]
Hon’ble Foreign Minister Dr. Hasan Mahmud, MP visited Bangabandhu Media Centre at Delhi Press Club today evening. Bangabandhu Media Centre was inaugurated by Dr. Hasan Mahmud, MP in his capacity as the Information and Broadcasting Minister on 06 September 2021.

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[2/7/2024 1:40 PM, 5.1K followers, 4 retweets, 22 likes]
The Bangladeshi diaspora and opposition groups have fueled this anti-India movement and advocated boycotts of Indian products. This movement mirrors similar campaigns in the Maldives, where Mohamed Muizzu capitalized on anti-India sentiment to win the presidential election. #IndiaOut #BoycottIndia ‘India Out’ campaigns simmer in #Bangladesh amid election fallout | Business and Economy News | Al Jazeera https://aje.io/mp7yad via @AJEnglish

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[2/8/2024 12:43 AM, 106.8K followers, 6 retweets, 5 likes]
President Dr @MMuizzu met with the Island Council & Women’s Development Committee members of Kolhumadulu Omadhoo Island. The council members discussed the island’s developmental plans with the President, relayed their concerns and expressed their most pertinent needs.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[2/7/2024 12:49 PM, 106.8K followers, 45 retweets, 49 likes]
President Dr @MMuizzu met with the Island Council and Women’s Development Committee members of Kolhumadulu Thimarafushi Island. Discussions at the meeting focused on the island community’s most pertinent needs and developmental requirements

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[2/7/2024 11:17 AM, 106.8K followers, 77 retweets, 77 likes]
President Dr @MMuizzu met with the Kolhumadulu Atoll Council members at the Secretariat of Kolhumadulu Atoll Council today. Discussions at the meeting spotlighted several requirements and concerns concerning the development of the Atoll.

Dr. Hasan Mahmud
@DrHasanMahmud62
[2/7/2024 3:39 AM, 1.8K followers, 33 retweets, 150 likes]
Today from 12.30 to 13.15 I had excellent meeting with national security advisor of India Mr. Ajit Doval. We discussed numbers of security issues including Rohingya issue. It was really a excellent meeting
Central Asia
Hugh Williamson
@HughAWilliamson
[2/7/2024 11:03 AM, 10.4K followers, 8 retweets, 10 likes]
1/ Clear statement by two key @OSCE bodies on Kyrgyzstan’s bill on so-called “foreign representatives”. @odihr and @OSCE_RFoM say bill is worrying and should be reviewed @HRW

Hugh Williamson
@HughAWilliamson
[2/7/2024 11:06 AM, 10.4K followers, 2 retweets, 4 likes]
2/”If this legislation is adopted, I am worried it would have an overwhelmingly negative impact on civil society, human rights defenders, and the media in Kyrgyzstan" says @ODIHR Director Matteo Mecacci

Hugh Williamson
@HughAWilliamson
[2/7/2024 11:09 AM, 10.4K followers, 3 retweets, 5 likes]
3/ Here’s @HRW’s joint statement with eight other international human rights groups, calling for Kyrgyzstan parliament to drop the draft foreign representatives law https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/01/25/kyrgyzstan-parliament-should-reject-bill-criminalises-and-obstructs-civic-activism

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[2/7/2024 8:48 PM, 22.6K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
Washington think tank documentary and a recent US expert delegation urge Uzbekistan to review the cases of religious prisoners and clearly define extremism. @VOANews @OxusSociety @USCIRF @nadinemaenza https://www.voanews.com/a/documentary-renews-focus-on-religious-freedom-in-uzbekistan/7478375.html

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[2/7/2024 2:29 PM, 22.6K followers, 3 retweets, 4 likes]
IMF #Kazakhstan risks to 2024 outlook: Delayed reform implementation; oil price decline/delays in Tengiz expansion/disruptions to exports via CPC pipeline; slow growth in trading partners; spillovers from the war in Ukraine; increased social tensions.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[2/7/2024 10:13 AM, 22.6K followers, 4 retweets, 6 likes]
Despite the effectiveness of the Turkmen firewall, the regime is constantly stepping up measures to prevent outside information seeping into the energy-rich Central Asian nation. President Serdar Berdymukhamedov last month announced his intention to "strengthen the country’s cybersecurity." https://voanews.com/a/turkmenistan-faces-parallel-reality-media-landscape/7477708.html

{End of Report}
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