epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Friday, February 2, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
US Exploring Consular Return to Afghanistan Without Recognizing Taliban Rule (VOA)
VOA [2/1/2024 3:54 PM, Akmal Dawi, 761K, Neutral]
The United States is cautiously exploring the possibility of reopening a consulate in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, according to a newly released strategy document from the State Department.

The move signals a potential shift in U.S. policy toward limited engagement with the isolated Islamist regime, while aiming to achieve multiple security, political and economic objectives.

“With the Taliban, we advocate for consular access, transparency and accountability for Americans; we also support the work of the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs to obtain the release of Americans unjustly detained,” reads the recently approved Integrated Country Strategy Afghanistan, which was approved in October 2023.

With the fall of the Afghan government in August 2021, the U.S. shut down its embassy in Kabul, marking a symbolic end to two decades of military and political engagement with Afghanistan.

Since then, U.S.-Taliban interactions have been limited to sporadic meetings outside of Afghanistan, mainly in Doha, Qatar, where the U.S. has stationed a charge d’affaires to Afghanistan.

“Even as — and for as long as — the United States does not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, we must build functional relationships that advance our objectives and further our understanding of the Taliban’s readiness and ability to fulfill their commitments to us,” the strategy paper states.

The new U.S. strategy outlines four strategic mission areas, namely counterterrorism, economic assistance, local engagement, and consular services for U.S. citizens inside Afghanistan and assisting Afghans who want to migrate to the United States.

The strategy maintains that Washington will “continue to speak out for basic rights of the Afghan people, especially women and girls."

U.S. officials have repeatedly said that any normalization with the Taliban, including ending decades-long sanctions on their leaders, depends on the reversal of Taliban’s repressive policies and the formation of an inclusive Afghan government.

Security, political risks

While not recognizing the Taliban’s interim government, some countries, including U.S. allies like India, Japan and Turkey, have maintained diplomatic missions in Kabul.

The United Nations, including its political mission, has also remained operational in the country.

Last year, an independent assessment sponsored by the United Nations called for increased and direct engagement by the international community with de facto Taliban authorities.

“From a logistical standpoint, it would be easier for the U.S. to help Afghans seeking paths to the U.S. if it had consular staff and facilities open on the ground,” Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute director at the Wilson Center, told VOA.

However, Kugelman cautioned about the political and security risks of a return to Afghanistan, especially during a U.S. election year.

“The Biden administration would likely feel the security risks are prohibitive,” he said.

Terrorism-related violence in Afghanistan has plummeted by 75% over the past two years, according to a 2023 Global Terrorism Index from the Institute for Economics & Peace.

The drop appears to have resulted from an end of the Taliban’s war against the former U.S.-backed Afghan government.

Despite the Taliban’s claim of restoring peace, terrorist groups like the Islamic State’s Khorasan branch have perpetrated attacks in Afghanistan killing hundreds of people mostly religious minorities.

“Security does not appear to be the issue, but how to decide the relationship with the Taliban is,” Kathy Gannon, former Associated Press bureau chief in Afghanistan and Pakistan, told VOA.

Gannon argued that the United States, like other countries, needs to engage with 40 million Afghans inside the country in order to charter an effective policy.
UN experts: Terrorist threat is high in Africa conflict zones and Afghanistan, and rose in Europe (AP)
AP [2/1/2024 8:58 PM, Edith M. Lederer, 22K, Neutral]
The terrorist threat from al-Qaida, the Islamic State group and their affiliates remains high in conflict zones in Africa and in Afghanistan – and threat levels have risen in some regions including Europe, U.N. experts said in a new report.

The panel of experts said in the 23-page report that the relationship between Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers and al-Qaida remains close, and unnamed member states report that “the high concentration of terrorist groups” in the country are undermining the security situation in the region.

The greatest threat within Afghanistan still comes from the Islamic State “with its ability to project into the region and beyond,” the experts said in the report to the U.N. Security Council covering the period until Dec. 16, 2023 which was circulated Wednesday. Regionally, they pointed to a succession of attacks in neighboring Iran and Pakistan and threats in Central Asian nations.

The panel said, however, that while none of the al-Qaida affiliated groups have recovered the capability to launch long-range operations, “they harbor global ambitions.” And it said “covert and calibrated efforts to rebuild capability” have been reported.

The Islamic State group broke away from al-Qaida over a decade ago and attracted supporters from around the world. Despite its defeat in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria two years later. The panel said the combined IS strength in the two countries is still between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters. In Iraq, they are carrying out “a low-intensity insurgency with covert terrorist cells” while in Syria attacks have intensified since November, the experts said.

The panel said the three-month delay in naming the current IS leader, Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi, following the death in fighting of his little-known predecessor “is judged indicative of internal difficulties and security challenges”

Some unnamed U.N. member nations have assessed that serious pressure from counter-terrorism operations in Syria and Iraq raise the possibility that the Islamic State could move its leadership and “center of gravity” to Africa or Afghanistan, with Africa more likely, the experts said.

In West Africa and the Sahel, the panel said, “violence and threat have escalated again” in conflict zones, raising concerns among U.N. member nations. The experts point to “a deficit in counterterrorism capabilities,” which Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliated groups are continuing to exploit.

“The situation is becoming ever more complex with the conflation of ethnic and regional disputes with the agenda and operations of these groups,” they said.

In east Africa, the experts said, the Somali government is continuing its military offensive against al-Shabab, an al-Qaida affiliate, but they said U.N. member nations assess that despite significant losses from air strikes and military operations, “al-Shabab remains resilient. It has an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters, and an estimated $100 million annual income, mostly from illegal taxation in the capital Mogadishu and southern Somalia, they said.

The panel said al-Qaida has improved its media productions which appeared aimed at restoring the extremist group’s credibility, attracting recruits, and filling the void over its inability to announce a new leader.

But that messaging changed after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks in southern Israel, the experts said.

The attack killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and Hamas and other extremists took about 250 people hostage, according to Israeli authorities. In Israel’s ongoing offensive in response in Gaza aimed at destroying Hamas, more than 27,000 people have been killed, according to the territory’s health ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths.

The experts said Al-Qaida has focused on “the sanctity” of the Al-Aqsa mosque, the third holiest site in Islam which is in a compound in Jerusalem sacred to Jews and Muslims, with some communications stressing “an obligation for individuals to take action to the limits of their own ability.”

“Member States are concerned that it (al-Qaida) could exploit the situation to recover relevance and tap into popular dissent about the extent of civilian casualties, providing direction to those keen to act,” the panel said, and they “are concerned that the renewed narrative could inspire self-initiated attacks globally.”

Across Europe, the experts said, “formal terrorist threat levels have risen … following fatal attacks in late 2023 in France and Belgium, in addition to numerous non-lethal terrorist incidents and arrests in several European countries.”
The Taliban vowed to cut ties with al Qaeda, but the terror group appears to be growing in Afghanistan (CBS News)
CBS News [2/1/2024 3:19 PM, Ahmad Mukhtar, 76K, Neutral]
Al Qaeda has established eight new training camps and maintains several safehouses in Afghanistan, according to a report provided to the United Nations Security Council this week. The report, compiled by the council’s committee created to monitor al Qaeda, indicates that the Taliban has not honored its pledge to the U.S. – outlined in the Doha agreement – to sever ties with the terror group, and that the two organizations remain close.

The Taliban has provided increased protection and support for al Qaeda members since regaining control over Afghanistan in 2021, when U.S. forces pulled out, the report says.

According to the report presented to the Security Council, the group behind the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks on the U.S. has established "up to eight new training camps in Afghanistan, including four in Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan and Uruzgan Provinces, with a new base to stockpile weaponry in the Panjshir Valley."

The terrorist organization also operates five madrasas - religious schools where it trains and indoctrinates children to become fighters - in the east and northeast of Afghanistan, the reports said. It also controls several safehouses in the capital, Kabul, and Herat province, from whereit facilitates the movement of its members and liaisons between its leadership in the country and its top leadership in neighboring Iran, the report says.

The Taliban released a statement denying the report, saying that the United Nations is "always spreading propaganda."

"There is no one related to al Qaeda in Afghanistan, nor does the Islamic Emirate allow anyone to use the territory of Afghanistan against others," the statement said.

Al Qaeda’s current leader, Sayf al-Adl is believed to be based in Iran, according to the United Nations and the U.S. Justice Department, which is offering a $10 million reward for information on his exact whereabouts.

Taliban-al Qaeda relations

A year after the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, the U.S. killed al Qaeda’s then-leader Ayman al-Zawahri with a drone strike in Kabul’s diplomatic district. He was inside a guest house belonging to the Taliban’s Interior Minister, who is also the leader of the powerful Taliban-affiliated Haqqani network, Sirajuddin Haqqani.

"The presence of al Qaeda senior figures in the country has not changed, and the group continues to pose a threat in the region and potentially beyond," the U.N. report warns. It notes, however, that in its assessment, "the group cannot at present project sophisticated attacks at long range."

Analysts believe al Qaeda is now a much weaker organization than it used to be, and many doubt the Taliban would allow activities that would jeopardize the U.S. humanitarian support provided to Afghanistan, which remains vital to preventing a humanitarian crisis in the country.

"Are there training camps in Afghanistan? It is entirely possible. But their capacity to hit targets outside the immediate South Asian region is minimal," veteran regional analyst Torek Farhadi told CBS News. "The Taliban are careful not to let such activities develop, as they are in contact with U.S. authorities."

"The U.S. is currently the largest humanitarian donor in Afghanistan through the U.N., but ultimately, this support has resulted in avoiding a further humanitarian crisis in the country. The Taliban recognize this precious U.S. support and will not risk upsetting this arrangement," he said.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction said the international community had provided at least $2.9 billion in aid to Afghanistan since August 2021, some $2.6 billion of which came from the U.S. government.
Afghanistan withdrawal caused ‘doom loop’ for caseworkers, report says (Roll Call)
Roll Call [2/1/2024 12:28 PM, Justin Papp, 46K, Neutral]
In the weeks before it happened, Elizabeth Peña heard murmurs from local refugee nonprofits that the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan could shutter.

Peña, who at the time was a congressional aide specializing in immigration cases for then-Rep. John Yarmuth, reached out to the embassy to inquire about the rumors but got little in response.

“What they told me in response is essentially, ‘No, and check our website for any updates about closures,’” said Peña, who is now a senior aide for Rep. Morgan McGarvey, Yarmuth’s successor and fellow Kentucky Democrat.

Not long after, in August 2021, the rumors proved true.

The withdrawal of American troops — precipitated by a 2020 deal between the Trump administration and the Taliban, and then carried out by the Biden administration — led to scenes of chaos as the Afghan army fell and the Taliban ascended to power.

The American Embassy in Kabul, which was originally intended to remain open beyond the withdrawal, closed on Aug. 15 as tens of thousands of Americans and allies scrambled to evacuate the country, creating a massive backlog of immigration and related cases.

As the State Department became overwhelmed with inquiries, people trying to leave Afghanistan — or family of those trying to escape — turned to Congress in large numbers.

“As we see fairly often in casework, when there’s an agency information vacuum, one of the places people go is Congress,” said Anne Meeker, deputy director at the nonprofit POPVOX Foundation, which on Thursday released a new report documenting the travails of congressional caseworkers during and after the Afghanistan withdrawal.

“So congressional offices started getting just a couple of inquiries. … Then as the State Department still wasn’t able to keep up with things on the ground, that just escalated,” Meeker continued.

“We just got flooded,” Peña recalled.

The report highlights the “doom loop” that caseworkers found themselves in. As the State Department became inundated, overflow cases spilled into congressional offices, where caseworkers — working with little information — turned again to executive branch agencies who were already underwater due to internal chaos and inadequate structures for managing cases, Meeker found.

“When caseworkers were unable to get adequate agency responses, they escalated requests and sought other sources of information and support, further complicating the agencies’ efforts to complete the withdrawal,” Meeker, a former caseworker for Massachusetts Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, writes in the report.

The Afghanistan withdrawal was in many ways unprecedented in its chaos. But it exemplifies the challenges faced by caseworkers — who play an unsung but integral role in congressional offices — when there are surges in cases in the wake of disaster, Meeker said.
‘I feel like I could’ve done more’

A litany of postmortems have been published about the Afghanistan withdrawal, among them a State Department report released last June that faulted both the Trump and Biden administrations.

“The decisions of both President Trump and President Biden to end the U.S. military mission posed significant challenges for the Department as it sought to maintain a robust diplomatic and assistance presence in Kabul and provide continued support to the Afghan government and people,” the report states.

Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle also railed against Biden and the chaos that ensued in Kabul. Moulton, an Iraq war veteran and Meeker’s former boss, was among the most vocal. With then-Rep. Peter Meijer, R-Mich., he secretly flew to Kabul in late August to witness the evacuation, angering the Biden administration and congressional leadership.

“I will never forget how my staff moved heaven and earth to help save lives during the fateful withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Moulton said in a statement accompanying the POPVOX report. “The emotional and physical toll was very real, but we were all determined to evacuate as many Americans and Afghan allies as we could amidst the confusion and danger posed by the Taliban.”

Meeker notes the many “after-action” reports that have been published on the Afghanistan withdrawal. But those mostly focus on executive branch agencies and officials, and not congressional caseworkers.

During the evacuation, Peña said her office began getting around 10 calls about Afghanistan a day, which was unusual for her district. Peña said she felt supported in her office and that colleagues helped relieve her of some of her non-immigration duties, but she was largely left to navigate a complex web of cases on her own.

According to the report, congressional caseworkers during the withdrawal dealt with Special Immigrant Visa cases for Afghans who had helped the U.S. military. They also handled refugee and asylum cases and repatriation cases, to locate and facilitate the return of U.S. citizens in Afghanistan. And they fielded casework involving members of the military and their family.

Peña said many cases that crossed her desk involved people who had immigrated to the U.S. from Afghanistan and had immediate or extended family trying to leave the country. In total, she estimated her office was dealing with 500 individuals who had requested assistance.

“Out of those 500, there were probably less than 10 that I feel like I could say, as a result of our inquiry … successfully got some type of outcome,” Peña said.

Responses from the State Department were rare, and often she felt she was sending requests out into the void.

“It was just an information vacuum,” Peña said. “The public messaging [from the White House] was very broad. It was, ‘We’re going to help anyone who needs help, essentially anyone who’s helped us.’ But there was no ‘how.’ To this day, I can’t really describe a standard process that the department had set out for us to follow.”

Cases also got increasingly desperate, Meeker said. Early on, they consisted largely of individuals already within the immigration pipeline trying to expedite the process. As the evacuation went on, the calls became more frantic and often more complicated.

“I would say it was frustrating. In a lot of ways it was traumatizing because I felt very responsible for those people, even though they themselves did not necessarily put that on me,” Peña said. “I always felt like it wasn’t doing enough. To this day I feel like I could’ve done more.”

Meeker said the caseworkers she interviewed for the report expressed similar sentiments.

“There’s a lot of guilt. There’s not a lot of closure for any of the caseworkers who handled this,” Meeker said.
Shut out

The Afghanistan withdrawal stands out for the chaos it created in agencies and in congressional offices, Meeker found. At the outset of other emergencies, like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Gaza, the State Department was more communicative.

But more should be done to prevent a repeat, she said, and her report lays out a series of recommendations for both the legislative and executive branches.

One is to fund the House Digital Services’ data aggregator pilot, a tool that would allow congressional offices to share anonymized casework data and spot trends. The data aggregator was a recommendation of the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress, and offices are currently being recruited “to participate in a scoping and development process,” according to the report.

It also calls for stronger, trauma-informed mental health resources for caseworkers and the creation of a nonpartisan Casework Liaison Office. That office would provide a physical space, with staff that could act as a “caseworker for caseworkers,” according to the report. Meeker also suggests better training of casework, legislative and committee staff to encourage information sharing.

Peña was aware at the time that staffers from the committees of jurisdiction, like Armed Services and Foreign Affairs, were getting briefings on the situation. But because her boss wasn’t on those panels and she didn’t have connections there, she was shut out.

In the absence of answers from committees or the State Department, Peña created a Microsoft Teams channel where caseworkers could ask questions and share information.

Meeker argues for more support to prevent caseworkers from being in a similar situation in the future. But she also sees the banding together that Peña describes as a kind of silver lining.

“The Afghanistan withdrawal was obviously always going to be a really difficult situation,” Meeker said. “But in the midst of this chaos, congressional caseworkers were working on a bipartisan basis, they were developing new ways to collaborate, and they did ultimately save lives through that collaboration and that effort.”

“I don’t want to call that a success story for Congress because it’s in such a tragic context. … But I think that points to how worth it it is to invest in casework,” Meeker said.
China Welcomes a Taliban Ambassador to Beijing (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [2/1/2024 8:45 AM, Freshta Jalalzai, 201K, Neutral]
China has long had its eyes on Afghanistan, often referred to as the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” and it has now officially accepted an ambassador representing the Taliban government.

The move was met with a warm reception from Taliban officials and their supporters. Afghan social media platforms were inundated with images capturing the moment on January 30 when the Taliban’s ambassador, Mawlawi Asadullah, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, exchanged a handshake in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, set against a backdrop of fresh flowers.

The title “Mawlawi” is commonly used as a prefix in various Islamic societies, especially in South Asia. It signifies an individual who has achieved a certain level of proficiency in Islamic theology and jurisprudence.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi, the spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry in Kabul, officially announced on X, formerly Twitter, that Asadullah, also known as Bilal Karimi on social media, was appointed as the Ambassador Extraordinaire and Plenipotentiary of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to China during a special ceremony alongside envoys from 41 other countries.

On January 31, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin was asked if receiving Asadullah’s credentials as the Taliban’s ambassador signified formal recognition of the Taliban government – something no state has offered yet. Wang demurred, calling the move a “normal diplomatic arrangement” while emphasizing the nominally “interim” state of the Taliban government.

“We believe that diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will come naturally as the concerns of various parties are effectively addressed,” Wang said. However, even while urging Afghanistan to “further respond to the expectations of the international community,” he also insisted that “Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community.”

Wang’s statement highlights the complex yet amicable China has relationship with the Taliban. Meetings between representatives from both sides both preceded the Taliban’s assumption of control in Afghanistan and persisted thereafter.

China’s interest in Afghanistan encompasses not only the allure of the country’s extensive underground wealth and abundant minerals but also strategic geographical proximity. Moreover, China’s Afghanistan policy is influenced by an age-old problem: the predicament of autonomy-seeking Turkic Muslims along the border with Afghanistan.

China Eyes Afghanistan’s Mineral Wealth

The Brookings Institution previously addressed the surging speculation that China would exploit the power vacuum created by the United States’ 2021 departure from Afghanistan, aiming for control over the nation’s mineral resources, notably focusing on lithium deposits. The Brookings report underscored the risks posed by China’s recent actions to Western powers. These concerns are particularly pronounced now as the United States and other major Western nations redirect their attention to the Middle East, possibly leaving South Asia in a state of uncertainty.

Reportedly, delegates from diverse Chinese companies conducted on-site inspections to assess potential lithium projects in Afghanistan in November 2021. In April 2023, the Taliban announced that Gochin, a Chinese battery company, aimed to enter a $10 billion contract for lithium extraction in Afghanistan.

However, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed no knowledge of the deal. The United States’ Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported on January 28, via a series of messages on X, that the U.S. State Department in the last quarter of 2023 that “no agreements have been signed.”

That could change as China slowly expands its ties with the Taliban government.

In a 2010 memorandum, the Pentagon’s Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, tasked with assessing Afghanistan’s development potential, characterized the country as the “Saudi Arabia of lithium.”

While lithium is not particularly scarce in the Earth’s crust, commercially viable deposits that can be economically extracted are less common. Lithium plays a crucial role in the global transition toward renewable resources and the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels.

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in portable electronic devices (such as smartphones and laptops) and electric vehicles. They are preferred for their high energy density, lightweight nature, and long cycle life. Lithium-ion batteries are a key component in the propulsion systems of electric vehicles, contributing to the growth of the electric vehicle market. Lithium-ion batteries also play a crucial role in storing energy generated from renewable sources like solar and wind, providing a stable supply when renewable energy production fluctuates.

Considering China’s already-prominent role in the exploitation of critical minerals, particularly in less affluent Asian and African nations, potential Chinese mining activities in Afghanistan give rise to various concerns.

The Xinjiang Factor

In addition, fostering a cooperative relationship with the Taliban, who now control an Islamic Emirate on China’s borders, appears to be a strategic maneuver aimed at mitigating potential concerns and ensuring stability.

China has long harbored concerns that Uyghur Muslims, who are native to the region officially known as the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, will seek to violently win their independence. The Chinese government has faced accusations of orchestrating a large-scale, systematic campaign of human rights violations against Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang, situated in northwestern China near the border with Afghanistan.

In October 2023, 51 United Nations member countries issued a collective declaration condemning the Chinese government’s alleged crimes against humanity targeting Uyghurs and other Turkic Muslim communities. The declaration called on Beijing to cease its systematic human rights abuses in the Xinjiang region.

Human Rights Watch echoed the plea.

China claims its actions are a necessary part of counterterrorism work, and it has found no shortage of foreign governments – including many in the Muslim world – willing to back its position to stay on Beijing’s good side.

China’s growing proximity to the Taliban may reduce the likelihood of Uyghur and other Turkic Muslims seeking support from Afghanistan based on the Islamic virtues of solidarity and cooperation.

China expresses specific concerns regarding separatist movements like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), also known as the Turkestan Islamic Party. The Chinese government designates ETIM as a terrorist organization, and its activities have been a point of contention between China and Afghanistan.

For example, Hasan Mahsum, a Uyghur separatist leader and the founder of ETIM, sought refuge in Afghanistan in the late 1990s during the Taliban’s rule (1996–2001). In December 2023, Pakistan’s military reported that Hasan Mahsum, recognized by China as a top “terrorist,” was killed during an army operation in Waziristan, along Afghanistan’s de facto border with Pakistan.

Sources on the ground in Afghanistan told RFE/RL that the Taliban had forced fighters affiliated with ETIM to relocate away from the border with China into areas farther south.

Where China Goes, Will Others Follow?

While the acceptance of the Taliban’s ambassador in Beijing does not indicate official recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, China is pushing the boundaries of diplomatic engagement. Now the question is whether China’s close ties with the Taliban will be emulated by Pakistan, which has refrained from recognition, and other countries in the region.

Even if no other country follows China’s example, it is undeniably a highly beneficial move for the Taliban.

Since seizing control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban have grappled with severe economic challenges. The departure of almost all international aid groups and NGOs has resulted in widespread unemployment and escalating hunger. Furthermore, the freezing of the country’s central bank assets and international sanctions have left Afghanistan largely isolated. The Taliban are seeking to tap into the country’s mineral resources, but such endeavors are impractical without external assistance, investment, and access to markets.

China could offer the necessary know-how, funding, and demand to make Afghanistan’s mineral wealth profitable. Opening new avenues with China would bring a significant improvement in business and trade.

Nevertheless, the extraction of Afghanistan’s mines and minerals poses formidable challenges, requiring advanced technology, labor-intensive efforts, and time. Time is a luxury the Taliban cannot afford, as the looming threats of hunger and unemployment could lead to a severe crisis.
Afghan special forces soldiers abandoned to Taliban will be allowed into UK in U-turn (The Telegraph)
The Telegraph [2/1/2024 4:07 PM, Charles Hymas, 1824K, Neutral]
Hundreds of Afghan special forces soldiers who were abandoned by Britain despite risking their lives to fight against the Taliban are finally set to be given sanctuary in the UK.

About 400 soldiers who served in two specialist units will have their applications to settle in the UK reviewed after the Ministry of Defence decided to change how it assesses their claims.

Some Afghan soldiers have been subjected to torture and murder at the hands of the Taliban after being denied help by the UK Government, despite extensive evidence showing they were paid, trained and worked “shoulder to shoulder” with British special forces.

The two units are known as the Triples because their full titles are the Afghan Commando Force 333 and Afghan Territorial Force 444.

Announcing the review in the Commons, James Heappey, the defence minister, admitted some decisions rejecting the former soldiers’ applications for relocation were “not robust”.

“A recent review of processes around eligibility decisions demonstrated instances of inconsistent application of the Arap (Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy) criteria in certain cases,” he told MPs.

“We will now work quickly to make sure that these decisions are reviewed, and cases and decisions changed if that is necessary. Undoubtedly there have been some decisions made that are not robust and need to be reviewed.”

In some cases, it is believed no consideration was given to official certificates and ID cards showing their closeness with the UK special forces. In other instances, references from British colleagues and evidence of a payslip from the UK were ignored.

At least six Triples members have been murdered by the Taliban since the West’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. At least 200 who have escaped to Pakistan face deportation back to Afghanistan.

If successful in the review of their applications, the special forces soldiers will be allowed to bring their family members with them to the UK – meaning hundreds in fear of their lives in Afghanistan and Pakistan could be given sanctuary.

Sir David Davis, the former Cabinet minister and a former SAS soldier, said: “The minister quite rightly says that we owe them a debt of gratitude. This is more than that. It’s a debt of honour.

“So can we make sure – both in terms of the administration that is carried out but also in terms of our relationship with Pakistan – that we do everything to deliver on our debt of honour as quickly as possible.”
Pakistan
Pakistan vows to hold polls as planned despite violence (Reuters)
Reuters [2/1/2024 9:48 AM, Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, 11975K, Negative]
Pakistan’s national election will go ahead as scheduled next Thursday despite security challenges, the election commission said on Thursday following a meeting to discuss increasing pre-poll violence in the west of the country.

The meeting included top security officials to discuss the clashes in the provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan after the killing of a candidate in a tribal district along the Afghan border a day earlier.

A statement from the commission quoted Chief Election Commissioner Sikander Sultan Raja as saying it was ready to conduct the polls with the help of security agencies and the army.

Fears had risen about a possible delay with rising incidents of violence. That speculation rose when the commission summoned an emergency meeting Thursday.

The Senate had also passed a non-binding resolution calling for the elections to be delayed.

Caretaker Interior Minister Gohar Ejaz, responsible for overseeing security in the country, vowed that elections would go ahead as planned.

"There should be no doubts that the election will be on Feb. 8," Ejaz said.

Pakistan faces twin insurgencies - one in northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by Islamist groups and one in the southwest by ethno-nationalist Baloch groups.

A national assembly candidate was shot dead on Wednesday in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. On the same day, another political leader was shot dead in his party’s election office in Balochistan.

On Tuesday, a bomb attack following an election rally killed four people in Balochistan. Islamic State claimed responsibility.

Separatist Baloch militants, including three suicide bombers, also launched a massive coordinated attack on a town in Balochistan on Monday which took hours for security forces to clear. At least 15 people were killed.

The U.S. State Department has already expressed concern about the violence, which it said could undermine the electoral process.

An anti-graft court jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan for 14 years each on charges of illegally selling state gifts, his party said on Wednesday, a day after Khan was jailed for 10 years in another case.

The sentence, after the third conviction handed down to the embattled ex-cricket star in the last few months, also included a 10-year disqualification from holding public office.
No delay in Pakistan polls after security meeting (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [2/1/2024 8:12 AM, Staff, 11975K, Negative]
Pakistan’s elections will go ahead as planned, the interior minister said Thursday, after the country’s vote body held a meeting with government and intelligence officials to discuss a spike in violence.

Polls in the South Asian nation are often marred by violence, with candidates and rallies targeted by militant groups as well as over personal vendettas.

"Elections will take place on the 8th of February," Gohar Ijaz, the caretaker interior minister, said.

He added that a spate of attacks in the southwestern Balochistan province, where Islamabad has fought a decades-long insurgency, posed "no security threat".

"We will provide proper security for the elections," Ijaz said.

In the past few days, a dozen separate attacks have been reported across Balochistan, at least five of which targeted candidates from different political parties.

On Tuesday, at least four people were killed by a bomb blast near a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) rally in the provincial capital Quetta.

"Security is currently on high alert, all our teams are carrying out extra patrols, snap-checks are also being done, everyone knows that there is a threat in the entire province," said Tariq Jawad, a police official in Quetta, on Thursday.

Rich mineral deposits in Pakistan’s largest but poorest province have been at the centre of Islamabad’s battle with ethnic Baloch separatist factions there.

Locals say they do not get their fair share of wealth from the oil and gas reserves, with the region consistently ranking at the bottom of Pakistan’s human development indicators.

In northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, at least two candidates have been shot dead since the start of January, including Rehan Zeb Khan, a PTI-backed independent who was shot dead on Wednesday after leaving a stump gathering in the former tribal district of Bajaur.

"The killing of Rehan Zeb is a targeted killing aimed at creating chaos during the elections," district police officer Kashif Zulfiqar told AFP.

Fifteen political figures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have faced death threats from militants over the past two months, a senior officer from the Counter Terrorism Department told AFP.
Nawaz Sharif: Pakistan’s king of comebacks looks set to be PM again (BBC)
BBC [2/2/2024 2:48 AM, Staff, 14.2M, Neutral]
Pakistan’s former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif only returned from exile last year but is now the clear front-runner to win the 8 February election.

Few could have predicted his return to the top, despite his dominance in Pakistani politics these past three decades.

His last term ended in him being convicted of corruption, and the time before that, he was toppled in a military coup.

Still, he appears on the brink of making another successful comeback, a dramatic turnaround for someone who had long been viewed as an opponent to Pakistan’s powerful military.

"He’s a top candidate to be the next premier not because he’s wildly popular - he certainly is - but more so because he’s played his cards right," says analyst Michael Kugelman, the South Asia Director at the Wilson Center think tank.

Mr Sharif’s arch-rival and former Prime Minister Imran Khan - previously backed by the military - is now the one locked up in jail, his popular party restricted across the country.

What’s his story?
One might say that Mr Sharif is the king of comebacks. He’s certainly done it before.

Ousted from his second term in a 1999 military coup, he returned in the 2013 parliamentary elections, staging a triumphant comeback to become Prime Minister for a record third term.

That was a historic moment for the country, as it was the first transition from one democratically elected government to another since independence in 1947.

But Sharif’s last period in office was marred by upheavals - starting with a six-month opposition blockade of the capital Islamabad, and ending with court proceedings over corruption allegations which eventually led to the Supreme Court disqualifying him in July 2017. He resigned shortly afterwards.

In July 2018 he was found guilty of corruption by a court in Pakistan and given a 10-year sentence. But he was released two months later when the court suspended the sentences, pending a final judgement.

By December 2018 however, he was jailed for corruption again, this time for seven years, in relation to his family’s ownership of steel mills in Saudi Arabia.

He then fought for bail arguing he needed medical treatment in the UK. This was granted in 2019, allowing him to flee to London where he lived in a luxury flat in exile for four years until his return last October.

Even in absentia though, he has been one of the country’s leading politicians for the past 35 years.

Early years

Nawaz Sharif was born into the family of a prominent Lahore industrialist in 1949 and made his mark in politics representing an urban constituency.

He first came to national prominence during the early days of Gen Zia’s martial law, serving as Punjab province’s finance and then chief minister from 1985-1990.

Observers recall him as not being a particularly impressive political figure, but said he nonetheless proved himself an adept administrator. He became prime minister in 1990, but was dismissed in 1993, clearing the way for the then opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, to form a government.

Owner of Ittefaq Group, a leading steel mill conglomerate, he is among the country’s wealthiest industrialists.

A protégé of military leader Gen Zia ul-Haq - who ruled Pakistan from 1977 to 1988 - Mr Sharif is perhaps best known outside Pakistan for ordering the country’s first nuclear tests in 1998.

Military coup

After becoming prime minister again in 1997 with a comfortable majority, Mr Sharif appeared to dominate the political landscape and exerted a powerful hold over all the country’s major institutions - apart from the army.

Then, frustrated by opposition in parliament, he tried to pass a constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to enforce Sharia law. He also confronted other power centres - a mob of his supporters ransacked the Supreme Court and he tried to rein in Pakistan’s powerful military.

But Mr Sharif’s overthrowing in 1999 by then army chief Pervez Musharraf showed how dangerous it was for any politician to attempt to curtail the military’s influence in Pakistan.

Mr Sharif was arrested, jailed and eventually sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of hijacking and terrorism. He was also convicted of corruption and banned for life from political activities.

But an alleged deal, brokered by the Saudis, saved him and other family members from being put behind bars. Mr Sharif and 40 members of his family were exiled to Saudi Arabia for what was supposed to be a period of 10 years.

Owen Bennett-Jones, BBC Islamabad correspondent at the time, recalls that when Mr Sharif was removed from power, many Pakistanis expressed great relief, describing him as corrupt, incompetent and power-hungry.

Corruption allegations

Mr Sharif’s first time in the political wilderness lasted until his triumphal return to Pakistan in 2007 following a deal with the military.

Back in Pakistan, he patiently bided his time in opposition. His PML-N party won about a quarter of parliamentary seats in the 2008 elections.

Though tipped to win the 2013 elections he surprised many with the scale of his victory. He saw off a spirited challenge from the party of former cricketer Imran Khan, who became prime minister after him, in politically crucial Punjab province.

But after assuming power in 2013, Sharif faced a six-month blockade of Islamabad by Mr Khan’s PTI party which accused him of rigging the elections.

There were public accusations that the blockade had been launched at the instigation of some officials in the military’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.

Analysts believe the military establishment wanted to put Sharif under pressure to prevent him from expanding trading ties with India - a process begun under the previous government.

Sharif had promised in his third term to turn Pakistan into an "Asian tiger", with new infrastructure and a government with "zero tolerance for corruption".

But problems multiplied and the only economic highlight - the Chinese-funded $56bn China-Pakistan economic corridor- has been mired in the country’s fragile economy with only some projects delivered so far.

In 2016, the Panama Papers leaks unleashed a new threat for the prime minister which resulted in claims of corruption being investigated by the Supreme Court.

The allegations related to his family’s ownership of apartments in an upmarket area of central London, with questions being raised over the money trail that led to the acquisition of those properties.

Sharif denied all wrongdoing and called the charges politically motivated.

However, on 6 July 2018 a court in Pakistan found him guilty of corruption and sentenced him - in absentia - to 10 years in prison. When the sentence was announced he was in London where his wife was receiving medical treatment.

Sharif’s daughter and son-in-law were also convicted.

Opportunity strikes

The former leader chose to stay in in London as his rival Imran Khan ruled the country.

But Mr Khan’s term in power was also turbulent and his relationship with the military deteriorated.

In 2022, Mr Khan was ousted in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence paving the way for Mr Sharif’s party, helmed by his younger brother Shehbaz, to take charge.

Mr Sharif has been tilting to get back into power even since Mr Khan’s fall, stepping up political engagements.

He flew home in 2023 - a historic return - and in the months since has managed to dislodge all legal cases that were still outstanding against him.

His path is clear to retake power if his party wins the most votes.

Not that they’re a shoo in- there’s a lot of resentment against Mr Sharif and his party, who are blamed for Pakistan’s economic misery. Mr Sharif is also heavily tarnished by his corruption accusations.

"They are going to win it but no party really ever comes in with an absolute majority, apart from Sharif once," said Dr Farzana Shaikh, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific programme.

"Everything points to him coming in as prime minister, or head of the largest party," she said, but added that it was uncertain what type of working majority he might have.

Will he get a fourth term as PM?

It is a turbulent, volatile time in Pakistan politics and Mr Sharif is presenting himself as the experienced leader with a track record of three premierships.

He’s promising to stabilise the economy and "right the ship" in Pakistan.

"Sharif’s supporters will hope his narrative of stability, experience, and dependability will get him votes- and also make the army comfortable with him, or at least comfortable with his party," says Mr Kugelman.

But analysts are still wary. He has a number of issues to navigate - not least an economy in crisis, for which his party is largely blamed, and widespread feelings the vote will not be fair because his main opponent is locked up.

"He is struggling because his party, led by his brother, was senior partner in the former coalition government, which had to implement a series of economic policies which have exacted a very high toll," says Dr Shaikh.

"Sharif and his party have been blamed for the economic misery if not the crisis that engulfs the country."

And then there’s the military, which has a big say in how Pakistan is run.

While abroad, the ex-PM had been very vocal on occasion against the armed forces.

In particular he blamed an ex-head of the feared ISI intelligence agency and the former army chief of staff for political instability in the country, charges they denied.

He also strongly criticised the nation’s judiciary, accusing judges of collusion and saying he had been the victim of "bogus cases". This, he said, had resulted in a crippled democracy that hadn’t let any of Pakistan’s prime ministers complete their constitutional tenure in office.

The military has never breathed a word on whether it prefers Mr Sharif or Mr Khan or any other political leader - stating on record that it does not get involved in politics.

But to analysts it would appear he has done a deal now with the military to facilitate his return.

"The fact that he’s received so much legal relief since returning home proves that he’s back in the good graces of a powerful military that exerts heavy influence over the judiciary," says Mr Kugelman.

He notes the "great irony" of Sharif’s success; at the moment he’s riding high but he used to constantly spar with the military.

"[But] in Pakistan, when you’re a political leader and have the army behind you, your chances of electoral success tend to be higher."
Pakistan: Unusually dry winter threatens food supply (Deutsche Welle)
Deutsche Welle [2/1/2024 8:01 AM, Jamila Achakzai, 2728K, Negative]
Little rain has fallen in the past three months across Pakistan, and farmers are worried about their winter crops and missing agricultural production targets.

Fareeda Nasrullah runs a small farm in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province and said the lack of rainfall is threatening her wheat crop this year.

"Our lives revolve around water. Two years ago, flash floods wreaked havoc on our farmland and crops, but now, the water for wheat cultivation is in short supply due to a lack of rainfall," the 49-year-old mother of four told DW.

"It’s a worrisome situation as we depend on agriculture to feed ourselves as well as to make a living."

This year, Nasrullah expects only around a quarter of her usual wheat harvest from her 1-acre (4,840 square yards, 4,047 square meters) plot of land.

"We’ve installed a groundwater pump, but the water table is so depleted that there is too little to irrigate our entire land," she said.

Winter rainfall much lower than normal

Sardar Sarfraz of the Pakistan Meteorological Department told DW that Pakistan only had 90% of its average December rainfall.

"Unusually, the month was warm as well. By and large, January, too, is dry, so the winter is rain-deficient this time around," he said.

He added that weather patterns in Pakistan were no longer acting "normally," with an increased frequency of extremes swinging from excessive precipitation to drought-like conditions.

"We have a high incidence of precipitation uncertainty or unevenness," Sarfraz added.

The mountainous region in northern Pakistan and catchment areas have also reported very low snowfall levels for this time of year.
Agricultural production under threat

The rain shortfall has delayed seed germination, reduced stem elongation and disrupted grain development, threatening food production, farmers said.

Pakistan has two main crop seasons — called "rabi" and "kharif."

Rabi crops include wheat, gram, lentils and barley, which are grown in the winter months and harvested in the spring.

Kharif crops include rice, maize, millet and sugarcane, and are sown in June and July and reaped in September and October.

Now with the serious rainfall shortage, not only will the rabi crops suffer, but reservoirs will not have enough water for the summer growing season. This will put a burden on the arid regions in the summer, according to Omer Bangash, a food security expert at the German food relief nonprofit Welthungerhilfe.

"The October-December period was drier than usual. Precipitation is likely to be scarce between January and March, too, so the situation becomes critical for our arid zones, especially the hyper-arid Balochistan and northwest Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces," Bangash told DW.

"There won’t be enough water for kharif crops as well," he added.

Bangash warned that Pakistan’s arid and humid agroecological zones were the most vulnerable, with high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition.

Wheat production targets for the year are likely to be missed, which will necessitate the import of the staple grain.

Mujeeb Ur Rehman of Pakistan’s national food security ministry said it’s premature to forecast the exact impact of deficient rainfall on wheat production, as the harvest is still two months away. He admitted, however, that diminished rainfall would impact crop yields.

Climate change affecting weather patterns

Climate expert Shafqat Munir told DW that the lack of rain and snowfall this winter can be attributed to climate change.

"Pakistan is vulnerable to climatic disasters and hazards, especially flooding and droughts," said Munir, who heads the Sustainability and Resilience program at the Islamabad-based think tank Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

"In 2022, monsoon downpours triggered floods, but the very next year, the El Nino weather system, coupled with other local and regional factors, caused below-average monsoon rainfall, leading to drought conditions in Sindh and Balochistan," Munir added.

"Dry spells are induced by climate change in terms of extreme weather conditions."

He noted that growing dry spells could affect future crops with more severe water shortages and longer heatwaves.

"Both water scarcity and heat are co-occurring environmental stressors for crop production," he said. "So if they exist due to long dry spells, Pakistan may not be in a position to feed our population and cattle in the future."
India
US Greenlights $4 Billion Sale of Drones, Missiles to India (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [2/1/2024 11:30 AM, Courtney McBride, 5543K, Negative]
The US approved the sale of nearly $4 billion in attack drones, Hellfire missiles and laser-guided bombs to India, as the Biden administration looks to chip away at the country’s long-time defense ties with Russia.

The deal will help India respond to “current and future threats by enabling unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance patrols in sea lanes of operation,” the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement Thursday.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has deepened defense ties with the US as it proceeds with a 10-year, $250 billion military modernization. Thursday’s announcement also amounts to a strategic victory for the US, which has been trying to wean India off its traditional arms relationship with Russia.

The deal, which has been in the works for at least three years, would add to India’s military capabilities as the drones it has now can only be used for surveillance and reconnaissance. The proposed sale also includes training munitions, navigational and communications equipment.

Read More: India to Buy First U.S. Armed Drones to Counter China, Pakistan

Under the terms of the deal, which has a maximum value of $3.99 billion, the US would sell up to 31 MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones, up to 170 AGM-114R Hellfire missiles and 310 GBU-39B/B Laser Small Diameter Bombs, among other equipment.

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, which manufactures the MQ-9B, will be the principal contractor. Lockheed Martin Corp. produces the Hellfire, while Boeing makes the GBU-39B/B Laser Small Diameter Bomb.
US approves $4 billion drone sale to India for maritime security needs (AP)
AP [2/1/2024 3:56 PM, Staff, 6902K, Positive]
The Biden administration on Thursday approved a nearly $4 billion sale of drones and military equipment to India that are meant to be used to improve its maritime safety and surveillance.

The approval comes at a time when Washington is courting New Delhi to increase its cooperation with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which is largely focused on countering China’s influence in the region.

The State Department notified Congress of the $3.99 billion sale that will include 31 Sky Guardian drones, 170 Hellfire missiles, 310 small-diameter bombs and related support material.

“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by helping to strengthen the U.S.-Indian strategic relationship and to improve the security of a major defense partner which continues to be an important force for political stability, peace, and economic progress in the Indo-Pacific and South Asia region,” the department said in a statement.

It “will improve India’s capability to meet current and future threats by enabling unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance patrols in sea lanes of operation,” it said, adding that India “has demonstrated a commitment to modernizing its military and will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces."
US State Dept approves nearly $4 billion sale of 31 armed drones to India (Reuters)
Reuters [2/1/2024 12:20 PM, Mike Stone and Ismail Shakil, 5239K, Positive]
The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of 31 armed MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones, related missiles and equipment to India for nearly $4 billion, the Pentagon said on Thursday, years after the two countries started discussing a deal.

India has long expressed interest in buying large, armed drones from the United States, but bureaucratic stumbling blocks hampered a hoped-for deal. Talks over an armed version for India date back to 2018, while discussions over unarmed versions date back even further.

Thursday’s approval by the State Department does not mean the deal is a sure thing, but demonstrates progress as the U.S. continues a campaign to coax India away from buying Russian military equipment.

The State Department nod signals that the deal likely has cleared one stumbling block, approval by leaders of U.S. congressional committees.

Senator Ben Cardin, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he had ended his "hold" on the agreement now that President Joe Biden’s administration had agreed to fully investigate an Indian assassination plot on U.S. soil.

"The (Biden) administration has demanded that there be investigation and accountability in regards to the plot here in the United States, and that there is accountability within India against these types of activities," Cardin told reporters.

Ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Washington last June, before the plot was uncovered, the Biden administration had pushed New Delhi to cut through its own red tape and advance a deal.

Currently, India is leasing a few MQ-9Bs as part of an intelligence-gathering operation.

The deal includes sophisticated communications and surveillance equipment, 170 AGM-114R Hellfire missiles and 310 Laser Small Diameter Bombs, a precision glide bomb.

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems will be the principal contractor, the Pentagon said.

The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the possible sale on Thursday.
US approves $4 bn India drone deal after assassination row (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [2/1/2024 4:52 PM, Shaun Tandon, 11975K, Neutral]
The United States on Thursday approved a $4 billion sale of state-of-the-art drones to India, eager to modernize its military in the face of China, after a delay following an alleged assassination plot on US soil.

The sale marks a milestone in Indian purchases of American weapons after New Delhi’s historic reliance on arms from Russia, which have been increasingly controversial due to sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

Indian officials had discussed the drones during a state visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last year at the invitation of President Joe Biden, following Indian skirmishes both with China and its historic adversary Pakistan.

After months of discussion with US lawmakers and India, the State Department formally informed Congress of the sale that includes 31 MQ-9B Sky Guardians, the most advanced among the Predator drones built by General Atomics.

"The proposed sale will improve India’s capability to meet current and future threats by enabling unmanned surveillance and reconnaissance patrols in sea lanes of operation," a State Department statement said.

"India has demonstrated a commitment to modernizing its military and will have no difficulty absorbing these articles and services into its armed forces."

While India had long enjoyed wide support in the US Congress, the mega-deal faced a holdup in Congress after US prosecutors alleged a plot to kill a Sikh separatist leader with US citizenship in New York.

Most explosively, the Justice Department alleged that an Indian government official directed the plan remotely.

India promised to look into the claim, in a more measured response than the Modi government’s furious response when Canada earlier alleged involvement by New Delhi in the killing of a Sikh separatist near Vancouver.

But some US lawmakers questioned whether both Modi and the Biden administration were taking the allegations seriously enough -- and put off their informal green-lighting of the sale.

Congress still has 30 days in which it can block the sale, although most observers expect it to go through.

"The notification gets the sale back on track, but it could still encounter some choppy seas in Congress. The assassination allegations against India continue to cast a shadow over US-India relations," said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

"Strategic imperatives tend to carry the day in this partnership, and that will likely ensure the sale eventually goes through, but one can’t rule out the possibility of some hiccups during the finalization process," he said.

In New Delhi, foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told reporters that the United States was following its "internal processes" on the sale, declining further comment.

The Sea Guardians can monitor the seas as well as submarines and can remain airborne for 35 hours at a time and fire Hellfire missiles and carry around 1,000 pounds (450 kilograms) of bombs.

The Indian Navy has already been operating two Predator drones on lease through which it has monitored Arabian Sea to protect ships from attacks by Yemen’s Huthi rebels and Somali pirates.

In 2019, India broke precedent by crossing into Pakistani airspace to strike an alleged militant training camp.

Tensions have also been rising on the Himalayan frontier between India and China, the world’s two most populous nations. A 2020 clash left dead 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese.

US policymakers have largely seen common cause with India due to shared worries about China, even as some lawmakers voice alarm about Modi’s human rights record.
India’s Quiet Push to Steal More of China’s iPhone Business (New York Times)
New York Times [2/2/2024 3:23 AM, Alex Travelli, 831K, Neutral]
India is quietly grabbing from China more manufacturing of Apple’s iPhones and other electronics gear.

It is happening in South Indian industrial areas on muddy plots that were once farmland.

In Sriperumbudur, people call Apple “the customer,” not daring to say the name of a company that prizes its secrets.

But some things are too big to hide. Two gigantic dormitory complexes are springing up from the earth. Once finished, each will be a tight block of 13 buildings with 24 rooms per floor around an L-shaped hallway. Every one of those pink-painted rooms will have beds for six workers, all women. The two blocks will house 18,720 workers apiece.

It’s a ready-made scene from Shenzhen or Zhengzhou, the Chinese cities famous for their iPhone production prowess. And it’s no wonder.

Sriperumbudur, in the state of Tamil Nadu, is the home of the expanding Indian fortress of Foxconn, the Taiwanese-based company that has long played the largest role in producing iPhones. And as recently as 2019, about 99 percent of them were made in China.

India, as part of a national manufacturing drive, is chipping away at that dominance, when many companies are looking to spread their work to countries other than China. An estimated 13 percent of the world’s iPhones were assembled in India last year, and about three-quarters of those were made in Tamil Nadu. By next year, the volume produced in India is expected to double.

But despite almost 10 years of a “Make in India” initiative promoted by the country’s powerful prime minister, Narendra Modi, manufacturing as a share of the economy has stalled out. At about 16 percent, it is a shade lower than when Mr. Modi took office in 2014, and far lower than that of China, or of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea when those Asian tigers took off.

India desperately needs more skilled jobs, and factory work creates them like nothing else. Last year, India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country, and its working-age population is speeding ahead. But turning that demographic bulge into an actual advantage means making India’s workers more productive. Half of them still depend on small farming.

Tamil Nadu might point the way forward. The state of 72 million people is now succeeding in ways that have eluded India as a whole. The national government started subsidizing electronics manufacturing across the country in 2021, setting off a gold rush in places like Noida, next to New Delhi.

But for Tamil Nadu, that incentive is not an essential lure. T.R.B. Rajaa, Tamil Nadu’s minister of industries, can rattle off the state’s inbuilt advantages: schools, transport, engineering graduates.

“We never compare our growth with other Indian states,” he said. “We chart ourselves to the growth of Scandinavian countries and how we can beat that.”

Mr. Rajaa and other boosters of Tamil Nadu are proud of the human capital their state has built up, and especially of its women. Many of them work in formal jobs, while few women in other states do: 43 percent of all Indian female factory employees work in Tamil Nadu, which is home to 5 percent of the national population.

Parts of Tamil Nadu are already working as industrial champions. A long belt of car and car-part manufacturers stretches down the coast from its capital, Chennai. In the western Coimbatore valley, factories specialize in die-casting and pump manufacturing. There is a knitwear cluster in Tiruppur, and the country’s biggest maker of matchsticks is in Sivakasi.

It is striking that India is plunging into such high-end goods as the iPhone. India has never become internationally competitive making things like T-shirts or sneakers, getting its clock cleaned by smaller and formerly less developed countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam.

This is not the first time this century that India was expected to move up the ranks of high-value electronics manufacturing. Nor the first time that Tamil Nadu seemed like the best launchpad for it. In 2006, Finland’s Nokia, then a cellphone colossus, built a big factory at the center of Sriperumbudur’s government-planned industrial estate. It was supposed to make millions of phones a year, for India and the rest of the world. The smartphone, and the global financial crisis in 2009, knocked down those dreams.

But the roots never died. Sriperumbudur was initially attractive because of its experience in auto manufacturing. Hyundai had set up shop in 1996, soon after India opened up its economy to more foreign investment and Tamil Nadu formed its first state development agency. Glassmaking and basic electrical goods followed. After a lull, the old Nokia site was built over by Salcomp, a local company that makes high-end power chargers, now for companies like Apple. The plants of a dozen other known and rumored Apple suppliers have sprouted around it, along with Samsung, Dell and most other big multinational electronics companies.

On Friday, India’s Republic Day, Young Liu, the chief executive of Foxconn, was in New Delhi to be awarded the Padma Bhushan, the country’s third-highest civilian honor. “Let’s do our part,” he said, “for manufacturing in India and for the betterment of society.”

A flourishing network of small, medium and large businesses contributes to Tamil Nadu’s success. One of them is Sancraft Industries in Sriperumbudur, a company with about $5 million in revenue that makes molded plastic parts for a handful of companies that feed the iPhone machine.

A company founder, Amit Gupta, said that Nokia had “brought the ecosystem here” and that its Finnish engineers had done a lot to usher in global standards. His experience working with an early client, Schneider Electric, a French company, taught him how to integrate his operations with more recent arrivals from South Korea, Taiwan and China.

As host to an international supply chain, Tamil Nadu has drawn restaurants and grocery stores catering to Western and East Asian tastes. “It’s like a small version of China here,” said Mr. Gupta, who worked in Shenzhen 15 years ago.

In India and abroad, there is no shortage of excitement about the prospect of India’s supplanting China in at least some part of global supply chains. By last year, Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, was showing up in India with his palms pressed in namaste, inaugurating the country’s first Apple stores.

All told, more than 130 Fortune 500 companies are doing business in Tamil Nadu.

The electronics campuses in Sriperumbur look remarkably alike. Gardened grounds and parking lots filled with dozens of white buses separate low-slung assembly plants. The buses shuttle thousands of workers to and from their homes, in villages 30 to 60 miles away.

Inside one Apple supplier, blue-smocked workers in surgical masks walked past banks of white-aluminum-cladded machinery on paths marked by yellow arrows stuck on the floor. Low ceilings, long clear sightlines and placards exhorting good behavior in English and Tamil completed the effect.

There are more to come. Corning, the American glassmaker, is setting up a factory that could produce iPhone’s Gorilla Glass screens, and Vietnam’s VinFast Auto has announced a $2 billion facility to make electric vehicles.

Mr. Rajaa, the state industry minister, isn’t stopping at $1,000 smartphones, either. He and other officials in Tamil Nadu are trying to attract more businesses making cheaper things, too, in greater volume. If the rest of the country could follow Tamil Nadu, India might be able to produce enough of the less-skilled jobs its young and growing population needs.

Mr. Rajaa spent the first week of January regaling foreign investors with plans that included a budding new industrial cluster, focused on non-leather footwear. About 140 miles south of Sriperumbudur, Nikes, Adidases and Crocs are just starting to roll off the lines in Perambalur.
India Boosts Pakistan Border Defenses Over Fears of Hamas-Style Attack (Newsweek)
Newsweek [2/1/2024 2:56 PM, Tom O’Connor, 2244K, Negative]
India has doubled down on defenses along its de facto border with Pakistan in the disputed Kashmir region out of concern over a potential surprise swarm attack by militants inspired by the Palestinian Hamas movement’s successful infiltration of Israel.

"The employment of innovative means by Hamas while attacking Israel on October 7, 2023, has raised alarm among security agencies across the world," Indian Army spokesperson Colonel Sudhir Chamoli told Newsweek.

"Requisite measures have been instituted along the Line of Control and International Border Sectors to thwart any such malafide attempts from across the Western Border," he added.

The Line of Control is a sprawling, nearly 500-mile boundary that divides nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan across Kashmir. As is the case with the far smaller 40-mile barrier that separates Israel and the Hamas-held Gaza Strip, the Line of Control has been the scene of frequent insurgent activity as well as a number of high-profile clashes and all-out wars.

But with Hamas’ shock October assault sparking the deadliest-ever flare-up of Israeli-Palestinian violence that remains ongoing to this day, Chamoli outlined some of the steps that have been taken to address emergent threats in the stretch Kashmir it administers, officially known as Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), as growing unrest in the Middle East threatens to spill over into South Asia.

"The Indian Army has established robust Counter Infiltration and Terror Grids in J&K in synchronization with other stakeholders," Chamoli explained.

"Adequate troops are deployed in the grid along with niche technology equipment with the capability to dynamically readjust based on emerging operational situation," he continued. "Technological infusion has been undertaken to counter emerging drone/quadcopter threats, in concert with other stakeholders."

Security measures in India-administered Kashmir were drastically increased after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to revoke the region’s semi-autonomous status in August 2019. The move, along with an ensuing crackdown designed to stamp out a decades-long insurgency waged by separatist groups, sparked international controversy, as well as outrage from Pakistan, which saw the move as a unilateral violation of attempts to settle Kashmir’s political status.

New Delhi, however, has long accused Islamabad of sponsoring various militias with Islamist and separatist agendas across the Line of Control, and now views with suspicion efforts by Pakistani officials to draw connections between the Kashmiri and Palestinian struggles for independence.

"Pakistan continues to innovate and adapt its proxy war in J&K to keep the pot boiling and present a disturbed situation in J&K," Chamoli said. "While so far, there have been no major attempts to link the two issues, the same cannot be ruled out in an attempt by Pakistan to highlight the Kashmir issue in the international fora."

The two issues do, in fact, share some common roots. The bloody partition that gave birth to the rivalry between the modern nations of India and Pakistan and the territorial dispute that sparked the Israeli-Palestinian conflict both followed the United Kingdom’s withdrawals from colonial holdings in 1947 and 1948, respectively.

While New Delhi has historically expressed sympathy for the Palestinian cause and became the first non-Arab nation to recognize the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1974, India has strengthened political, economic and even security ties with Israel since establishing official relations in 1992. Pakistan, on the hand, has never recognized Israel, and its support for Palestinians has been bolstered by commonalities with the Kashmir issue.

In a recent interview with Newsweek, Pakistani Permanent Representative to the United Nations Munir Akram asserted that "the Palestinian cause and Kashmir cause have been intertwined historically, but also because they depend on the same central principle of self-determination."

The senior Pakistani diplomat argued that "the application of the principle of self-determination, if it succeeds in Palestine, will be a great boost to the application of the principle for Jammu and Kashmir."

Akram rebuffed India’s accusations that his nation was behind militant activity in Kashmir and instead accused New Delhi of waging its own "hybrid war" through conventional means as well as the backing of non-state actors such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP], also known as the Pakistani Taliban, and Balochi separatists.

The dueling accusations come amid rising tensions kindled by a spike in militant activity across the region.

Iran and Pakistan, in particular, have suffered a series of deadly attacks by groups pushing ethnic separatist and Islamist agendas, including the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), in recent years, especially since the Afghan Taliban’s takeover over neighboring Afghanistan.

Though Tehran and Islamabad have historically sought to cooperate on the issue, frustrations boiled over last month when Iran conducted missile attacks against alleged positions of the Jaish al-Adl militant group on Pakistani territory, and Pakistani forces retaliated with strikes against alleged Baluchi rebel sites in Iran. The two nations have since sought to mend their frayed ties, but militant attacks continue to undermine regional security.

At a time when the war in Gaza was also prompting violent ripple effects, with non-state actors aligned with Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen opening new fronts, Indian and Pakistani officials have expressed concerns over the potential second-order effects for their own region.

"The security situation in the Middle East has a bearing on overall security situation in the region including India," Chamoli said.

"The Indian Army remains cognizant of developments in the international security arena including the Middle East and adequate safeguards are put in place," he added, "along with a whole-of-government approach, to meet the emerging challenges."
India opposition accuses government of crackdown after minister’s arrest (Reuters)
Reuters [2/1/2024 7:17 AM, Rupam Jain, 11975K, Negative]
India’s opposition parties accused the government on Thursday of targeting their leaders in the build-up to elections after the financial crime agency arrested a state chief minister on corruption charges, the latest in a series of investigations.

Hemant Soren, Chief Minister of the eastern state of Jharkhand, denied any wrongdoing in a video message posted online hours before his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Wednesday evening.

Soren is a senior leader of the opposition "INDIA" alliance, made up of more than two dozen parties campaigning to unseat Prime Minister Narendra Modi in general elections due by May.

"I will continue my struggle and win against this political conspiracy ... Our rivals are succeeding in their unholy intentions for now but we will keep fighting," Soren said.

The ED has said it is investigating several other opposition leaders including ministers from the national capital territory of Delhi.

Officials at the ED did not respond to questions about Soren and other cases.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did not comment on the individual cases, but denied any political interference and said investigations were justified.

"Exposing corruption is our duty towards India," Pratul Shah Deo, a BJP spokesperson in Jharkhand, said.

The ED has sent several summons to the chief minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, linked to an investigation into alleged corruption in the granting of liquor licences.

Two of Kejriwal’s ministerial colleagues in the INDIA alliance’s Aam Aadmi Party have been detained for months pending trial over the same investigation. All three deny any wrongdoing.

Aam Aadmi Party spokesperson Saurabh Bharadwaj said anyone who questions the BJP goes to jail.

"Those who do not stop, do not bow down, do not get suppressed, do not fear - they will go to jail one by one," he said.

Last year, 14 opposition parties led by the Congress party asked the Supreme Court to rein in what they said was the use of federal agencies to target opponents of the ruling party. The court dismissed the case.

"The way the BJP government is attacking institutions by partnering with investigative agencies, it is a complete misuse of them," said Abhishek Singhvi, spokesman for the Congress party, which is a key member of the INDIA alliance.
India begins to flex its naval power as competition with China grows (AP)
AP [2/1/2024 10:26 PM, Aijaz Hussain, 22K, Neutral]
For decades, India has focused its defense policy on its land borders with rivals Pakistan and China. Now, as its global ambitions expand, it is beginning to flex its naval power in international waters, including anti-piracy patrols and a widely publicized deployment close to the Red Sea to help protect ships from attacks during Israel’s war with Hamas.

India sent three guided missile destroyers and reconnaissance aircraft in November when Yemen-based Houthi rebels began targeting ships in solidarity with Hamas, causing disruptions in a key trading route that handles about 12% of global trade.

The deployment highlights the country as a “proactive contributor” to international maritime stability, said Vice Adm. Anil Kumar Chawla, who retired in 2021 as head of India’s southern naval command.

“We are not doing it only out of altruism. Unless you are a maritime power you can never aspire to be a global power,” Chawla said. India, already a regional power, is positioning itself “as a global player today, an upcoming global power,” he said.

India is widely publicizing the deployments, signaling its desire to assume a wider responsibility in maritime security to the world and its growing maritime ambitions to regional rival China.

“It is a message to China that, look, we can deploy such a large force here. This is our backyard. Though we don’t own it, but we are probably the most capable and responsible resident naval power,” Chawla said.

The Indian navy has helped at least four ships, three of which were attacked by Houthi rebels and another that Washington blamed on Iran, a charge denied by Tehran. It has also conducted several anti-piracy missions.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels have targeted dozens of ships in the Red Sea, saying they are seeking a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. The U.S. and its allies have responded with multiple rounds of bombings of rebel positions. India has not joined the U.S.-led force battling the Houthis.

On Jan. 26, the Indian guided missile destroyer INS Visakhapatnam assisted the crew of a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in fighting a fire after it was hit by a missile in the Gulf of Aden. About 10 days earlier, the Visakhapatnam responded to a distress call by the U.S.-owned Genco Picardy merchant vessel following a drone attack in the same waters.

“Maritime security has not been a strong pillar of India’s foreign policy engagements in a way we are beginning to see now,” said Darshana M. Baruah, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “China is a factor in this.”

The rivals are already locked in a military standoff along their disputed border high in the mountains.

China has built up its presence over the years in the Indian Ocean, a key route for its energy supplies. It has the world’s largest navy by number of ships, more than three times the size of the Indian navy. China also operates a powerful fleet of large coast guard ships and what is referred to as its maritime militia consisting of fishing vessels that cooperate with the coast guard in asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Beijing has deepened its engagement in the Indian Ocean mainly through infrastructure deals with India’s neighbors, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and most recently the Maldives.

“The Chinese are looking for more and more naval bases in the extended Indian Ocean,” said Lt. Gen. D. S. Hooda, a former Indian military officer and now a strategic expert. “Seeing that, India doesn’t have any other option but to keep building up its own.”

The Maldives government last week gave clearance to a Chinese research ship to dock in its port. Similar Chinese ships have made port calls in Sri Lanka in 2022 and 2023 amid fears in India that they could be used to surveil the region. India’s concerns led Sri Lanka earlier this year to declare a one-year moratorium on foreign research ships entering its waters.

Experts say the growing competition with China is energizing India to acquire more advanced ships, submarines and aircraft and invest more in technology and infrastructure. The navy’s share of India’s burgeoning defense budget, which reached $72.6 billion last year, has increased to 19% from about 14%. The Indian army has traditionally received the lion’s share of the military budget.

The navy has also built strategic partnerships through participation in joint exercises with other nations in the region and beyond.

Baruah, who directs the Indian Ocean Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment, said there is a “need for Delhi’s strategic thinking to be maritime-oriented, not just as an option for crisis response but as a theater to advance India’s most pressing geopolitical and strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific.”

India, the U.S., Australia and Japan are members of the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance known as the Quad, which has repeatedly accused China of flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea and aggressively pushing its maritime territorial claims. The navies of the four countries regularly hold drills seen as part of an initiative to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the Pacific.

Beijing maintains that its military is purely defensive to protect what it says are its sovereign rights, and calls the Quad an attempt to contain its economic growth and influence.

For Indian naval planners, the South China Sea remains a top concern, with about 60% of India’s cargo passing through shipping lanes in the Beijing-dominated region.

Chawla said India doesn’t have “strength to project power into the South China Sea right now” because of the vast Chinese maritime assets there.

“Frankly, if it comes to a shooting war, India does not really have the capability and Quad does not have the mandate,” he said. “You know, it’s not a NATO-like alliance yet."
Indian police clear a suspected Chinese spy pigeon after 8 months in bird lockup (AP)
AP [2/1/2024 6:38 AM, Staff, 40000K, Negative]
Indian police cleared a suspected Chinese spy pigeon after eight months’ detention and released it into the wild Tuesday, news agency Press Trust of India reported.

The pigeon’s ordeal began in May when it was captured near a port in Mumbai with two rings tied to its legs, carrying words that looked like Chinese. Police suspected it was involved in espionage and took it in, later sending it to Mumbai’s Bai Sakarbai Dinshaw Petit Hospital for Animals.

Eventually, it turned out the pigeon was an open-water racing bird from Taiwan that had escaped and made its way to India. With police permission, the bird was transferred to the Bombay Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, whose doctors set it free on Tuesday.

Mumbai police could not be reached for comment.

It is not the first time a bird has come under police suspicion in India.

In 2020, police in Indian-controlled Kashmir released a pigeon belonging to a Pakistani fisherman after a probe found that the bird, which had flown across the heavily militarized border between the nuclear-armed nations, was not a spy.

In 2016, another pigeon was taken into custody after it was found with a note that threatened Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Hindu prayers begin inside India’s Mughal-era mosque after court order (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [2/1/2024 7:08 AM, Staff, 2060K, Neutral]
Hindu worshippers have begun praying inside a 17th-century mosque in the Indian city of Varanasi, hours after a court order gave them the go-ahead at the disputed site.

The Gyanvapi Mosque in Varanasi is one of several Muslim places of worship that right-wing Hindu groups, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have sought for decades to reclaim.

Varanasi is Modi’s parliamentary constituency in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, also governed by the BJP.

On Wednesday, a local court ruled that Hindu worshippers could pray in the building’s basement and ordered the authorities to “make proper arrangements” for worshippers within a week.

Indian media reports said the family members of Hindu priests started praying in the mosque’s basement in the early hours of Thursday.

Akhlaq Ahmad, the lawyer representing Muslim petitioners, said the court order would be appealed.

The Gyanvapi Mosque was built during the Mughal Empire in a city where Hindus from across the country cremate relatives by the Ganges river. Hindu worshippers claim the mosque replaced a temple to the Hindu deity Shiva.

Last month, the Archaeological Survey of India said a survey of the site appeared to corroborate the belief that it was originally home to a temple.

Emboldened right-wing Hindu groups have laid claim to several Muslim sites of worship they say were built atop ancient temples during Mughal rule.
Centuries-old mosque razed in Indian capital

Meanwhile, bulldozers have knocked down a centuries-old mosque in India’s capital, a member of the building’s managing committee said.

The Masjid Akhonji in New Delhi, which its caretakers say is about 600 years old, was home to 22 students enrolled in an Islamic boarding school.

It was torn down on Tuesday in a forest of Mehrauli, an affluent neighbourhood dotted with centuries-old ruins from settlements predating modern Delhi.

Mohammad Zaffar, a member of the mosque’s managing committee, told the Agence France-Presse news agency it did not receive any prior notice before a demolition was carried out “in the dark of the night”.

He said many graves in the mosque compound were also desecrated and no one was allowed to take out copies of the Quran or other materials from inside the mosque before it was razed.

“Many of our revered figures and my own ancestors were buried there. There is no trace of the graves now,” Zaffar told AFP. “The rubble from the mosque and the graves has been removed and dumped somewhere else.”

The officials said the demolition was part of a drive to remove “illegal” structures from a forest reserve.

Calls for India to enshrine Hindu supremacy have grown rapidly louder since Modi took office in 2014, making its roughly 200-million-strong Muslim minority – the world’s third-largest Muslim population – increasingly anxious about its future.

Last week, Modi presided over a grand inauguration ceremony in the nearby city of Ayodhya for a Hindu temple built on the former grounds of another Mughal-era mosque.

Hindu zealots had torn down the Babri Mosque in 1992 in a campaign spearheaded by members of Modi’s party, sparking sectarian riots that killed 2,000 people nationwide, most of them Muslims.

A decades-long court battle that ensued over the future of the Babri site ended in 2019 when India’s top court permitted the construction of a temple to the deity Ram, who, according to Hindu scripture, was born in the city.

The consecration of the Ram temple by Modi fulfilled a 35-year-old pledge of the BJP and has been portrayed by the party and its affiliates as a Hindu reawakening. It also came months ahead of national elections due by May and is expected to boost Modi’s chances of winning a third term.

Critics accuse Modi of pushing a pro-Hindu agenda and promoting discrimination against Muslims, but he says his government does not do so.

Last week, a senior leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s far-right ideological mentor, questioned whether Gyanvapi Mosque and three others, including the razed one in Ayodhya, were mosques at all.

“Whether we should consider them mosques or not, the people of the country and the world should think about it. They should stand with the truth, or they should stand with the wrong?” Indresh Kumar told Reuters news agency in an interview.

“Accept the truth. Hold dialogues and let the judiciary decide.”
NSB
Fear grips refugees after UNHCR says it will close Sri Lanka operations (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [2/2/2024 4:14 AM, Hassaan Shazuli, 2.1M, Neutral]
Sixteen-year-old Ohnmar* has never experienced the joys of attending school, the excitement of playing with friends during recess or simple pleasures of life like savouring a satisfying meal.

Ohnmar, a Rohingya, was born “stateless” because Myanmar has not granted citizenship to members of his community since 1982. He fled to Bangladesh with his family during the Myanmar military’s genocide against the Rohingya in 2017 and has been a refugee since.

Two years later, his father died of illness. In December 2022, the rest of the family left a refugee camp in Bangladesh hoping to reach Indonesia by boat. But the boat’s engine failed during the perilous journey, and his mother and three brothers drowned.

Ohnmar, along with nearly 100 other survivors, were rescued by the Sri Lankan navy off the island nation’s northern coast. Since then, he has been living in Sri Lanka as the only surviving member of his family.

The teenager currently shares a home with other refugees and has no one to take care of him. He said he has not had a proper meal in two days.

The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) had granted Ohnmar a monthly allowance after he was released following a three-month detention after being rescued. He would use the money to buy meals and other basic necessities.

But the UNHCR scrapped the allowance for refugees in December, so now Ohnmar often goes hungry for days. He depends on meals shared by other refugees.

“Please help me settle in another country permanently. Otherwise, I will starve and become homeless,” Ohnmar told Al Jazeera at Panadura, a town 27km (17 miles) south of the capital, Colombo.

Current status of refugees

Sri Lanka is home to hundreds of refugees like Ohnmar desperate to settle down permanently in another country. But they fear time is running out.

Sri Lanka is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention and its 1967 protocol – two key legal documents that protect transnational rights. Moreover, there is no domestic law or mechanism to deal with refugees or asylum seekers on the island.

This has made Sri Lanka a transit point for refugees until the UNHCR helps them resettle in another country.

But the UNHCR told Al Jazeera it will close its Colombo office in December because most of the people displaced internally during Sri Lanka’s long civil war had returned to their native places.

“The phasing-down process will continue through the end of 2024, and UNHCR will maintain a liaison presence in Sri Lanka from 2025 onward,” UNHCR spokesperson Liania Bianchi told Al Jazeera in an emailed response.

The UNHCR is the only organisation in Sri Lanka that has handled the process of registering refugees and filing applications on their behalf with other countries for permanent resettlement. It also offered them monthly allowances “tailored to individual needs” and scholarships for children to attend school.

Refugees and asylum seekers fear they will be stranded when the UNHCR wraps up its operations. According to the agency’s latest data from mid-2023, there are 567 refugees and 224 asylum seekers in Sri Lanka, most of them Pakistanis.

A large number of Pakistani refugees belong to the Ahmadi Muslim sect, which has been long persecuted for religious reasons and considered non-Muslims under Pakistani law. There are also Pakistani Christians and Shia among the asylum-seeking population.

Some of these refugees have been unable to leave Sri Lanka for nearly a decade or more because their applications have been rejected by host countries. The UNHCR does not allow refugees to choose a country to settle in permanently. They have to wait until it files applications with countries likely to accept them.

‘Help us resettle before leaving’

Yuzana*, 18, last saw her family when she left a refugee camp in Bangladesh in 2022. She left her family behind when she moved out of the camp, hoping it would increase her prospects for a better life.

Since Rohingya are stateless, they do not have passports and cannot travel by air. In their search for safe and permanent shelters, they are forced to undertake dangerous journeys by sea on rickety boats packed beyond capacity.

Like Ohnmar, Yuzana was also among the refugees rescued by the Sri Lankan navy in December 2022 after their boat to Indonesia had engine trouble.

“I have never been to a school. My only request is to help me move to a country permanently, so that I can start studying. Without that, I am clueless about my future,” Yuzana told Al Jazeera. “I can’t stop thinking of my family. I want to meet them soon.”

Yuzana, a minor at the time of her rescue, was first placed at a detention centre with other refugees and later moved to an orphanage from which she was released this month.

“The UNHCR handled all my expenses since I came here [Sri Lanka]. They even gave me a voucher to buy essentials. I am surviving using that. But now they have stopped giving the allowances. I don’t know what to do,” she said.

Khine*, 51, another Rohingya rescued in 2022 along with his two sons and grandchildren, said he was grateful to the Sri Lankan navy and the UNHCR for helping him stay in the country.

“We were kept at a detention centre for three months. After we were released, the UNHCR gave us monthly allowances, which was helpful to me. Now it is difficult to survive without the allowance,” he said.

Khine said the UNHCR must help refugees move to another country before closing its office in Sri Lanka.

“The early days of my life are over, but what will happen to my kids and grandkids? Without citizenship, there is no hope,” Khine told Al Jazeera. “How can the UNHCR leave without solving our problem? We can’t go back to our country.”

‘Give us the allowance’

As living costs soar, exacerbated by a severe economic crisis in Sri Lanka, the UNHCR’s decision to stop the monthly allowances for refugees and scholarships for children in primary grades has come as a double whammy.

The cost of essentials including cooking gas, food and utilities has risen after the government increased value-added taxes up to 18 percent in January. Crops destroyed by heavy rains have also led to an increase in food prices.

Carrots, for instance, are being sold at 1,975 Sri Lankan rupees ($6) a kilogramme (2.2lb), up from 200 rupees ($0.6) a year ago, central bank data show.

Worse, refugees are legally barred from working in Sri Lanka, forcing them to rely on the UNHCR allowance or donations from charities – both barely enough to meet their needs.

In the coastal city of Negombo, about an hour’s drive from Colombo, Fareedun Saeed; his wife, Riffat Fareedun; and their two daughters are struggling to make ends meet.

The UNHCR initially granted them a monthly allowance of 22,000 rupees ($68) before increasing it to 43,000 rupees ($134) amid skyrocketing inflation in 2022.

“We used the money to pay the rent, buy food, and pay our electricity and water bills. Now they have stopped the allowance. I don’t know what to do,” Saeed told Al Jazeera.

For more than a decade, they have been living in a small house with barely enough space to move around. With food becoming increasingly expensive, the Fareeduns are surviving on roti, a flatbread they have with lentil curry or eggs once a day.

“My daughters say they can’t eat roti every day. But I have to convince them to eat this. I don’t eat much. We give our food to our daughters,” Fareedun, a certified beautician, told Al Jazeera.

A member of the Sayed caste, Fareedun married Saeed, who hails from the Sheikh caste. Intercaste marriages are often considered unacceptable in some parts of Pakistani society.

Scars on Fareedun’s left forearm and Saeed’s head remind them of the days they were attacked for their marriage after it was opposed by their families.

“We are appealing to all countries: Please grant us resettlement. I can’t go back to Pakistan. They will kill me. I’d rather die here,” Fareedun said, adding that her applications for immigration to Australia and the United States were rejected.

After the UNHCR allowances were scrapped, Fareedun has been skipping her high blood pressure medication and often falls sick as a result.

Both her daughters – 14-year-old Fathima Fareedun, a ninth-grade student, and 12-year-old Aysha Fareedun in grade seven – received UNHCR scholarships to pursue their educations, which have now been scrapped.

Saeed showed two quotations each of nearly 24,000 rupees ($75) that he received from a bookshop to buy books for his daughters. “How can I buy this when I don’t have an income? They don’t allow us to work. Soon, my daughters won’t be able to go to school.”

Fathima was three when she arrived in Sri Lanka. “At times, I haven’t gone to school because we couldn’t pay for transport,” she told Al Jazeera. “Please help us resettle in another country. I want to study and become a doctor.”

What happens next?

The UNHCR said it will coordinate with Sri Lankan authorities after closing its office to ensure refugees and asylum seekers are protected and not sent back to countries where they are at risk of persecution.

“UNHCR will continue to advocate with the authorities for them to ratify the 1951 convention [and] develop a national asylum system in the country,” Bianchi told Al Jazeera.

“UNHCR will also continue to work to ensure that refugees already identified for resettlement continue the departure process.”

But Ruki Fernando, a refugee rights activist, said their basic rights are being violated because they cannot work and their access to education is hampered.

“Sri Lanka must have a domestic law and mechanism to process asylum applications and offer permanent resettlement and citizenship to at least a small number of people,” Fernando told Al Jazeera.

“The government should provide housing to these refugees and allow their children to be part of the country’s free education system.”

Refugees and asylum seekers have occasionally been threatened, attacked and deported from Sri Lanka. The UNHCR’s planned departure has heightened fears of more abuse and deportations.

In 2014, the Supreme Court permitted authorities to deport several Pakistani asylum seekers after the government accused them of committing crimes and spreading malaria.

Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said at the time that at least 18 malaria cases were detected among asylum seekers that year. The cases were discovered when Sri Lanka had no local malaria infections and was awaiting a malaria-free certification from the World Health Organization, the ministry said.

The UNHCR at the time accused Sri Lanka of violating international laws.

“When the previous deportations happened, UNHCR was the key agency which intervened on behalf of refugees and asylum seekers. When the UNHCR is absent, there is a question of who will intervene on behalf of them,” Fernando said.

Chomden*, 20, a widow and mother to a five-year-old daughter, left Myanmar in 2017. She is sceptical about her future after the UNHCR stopped her monthly allowance of 31,000 rupees ($96).

“If the UNHCR is planning to close the office without a proper solution, we can’t imagine what will happen to us,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Rather than leaving us stranded here, it’s better if they can repair our boat and push us back into the ocean. At least we will die there quickly.”
Sri Lanka’s online regulations highlight restrictions sweeping South Asia (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [2/2/2024 3:44 AM, Kamala Thiagarajan, 293K, Neutral]
New legislation to regulate online content in Sri Lanka has renewed concern over freedom of expression ahead of expected elections. It also highlights a growing habit of restricting the internet across South Asia, from India to Pakistan.

The Sri Lankan Parliament approved what was dubbed the Online Safety Act in late January, with 108 lawmakers voting in favor versus 62 against. Under the law, "false statements" that pose a threat to national security, public health and order or hurt religious sentiments or promote hostility between different classes can be subject to hefty prison terms.

Activists say the bill provides sweeping powers to the new Online Safety Commission, consisting of five members appointed by the president. This panel can decide what constitutes a prohibited statement and issue takedown orders to internet service providers and social networks.

When introducing the bill in Parliament on Jan. 18, Public Security Minister Tiran Alles said it was meant to address problems related to online fraud and other crimes -- more than 8,000 complaints were filed last year related to crimes such as scams, data theft and sexual abuse, according to the government. He insisted that the bill was not drafted to harass the media or political opponents.

But suspicion of authority runs deep as the country digs itself out of severe political and economic crises. Sri Lanka defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2022, and protests fueled by severe shortages of essentials subsequently forced out President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as president and went on to secure a $2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. But many continue to face acute hardship, and the political temperature is heating up as the country looks toward elections expected around September.

The online bill sailed through despite a public outcry, which has not dissipated since. The legislation is "vague, unclear and a threat to free speech," said Ashila Dandeniya, executive director of the Stand Up Movement Lanka. "It also comes at a time when on-the-ground scrutiny and surveillance of grassroots activism is at its peak."

Stand Up Movement Lanka recently registered as a trade union, the Stand Up Workers Union. It seeks to protect the most vulnerable groups, ensuring labor rights for sex workers, the LGBTQI community and factory garment workers. Dandeniya said extensive monitoring of the organization has resulted in nervous landlords, forcing them to move three times over the last three years and driving up costs. "The online space was our last safe refuge for our activism," she said. "However, this law, when it comes into effect, can easily weaponize anything that is said on social media."

Even the U.S. ambassador to Sri Lanka, Julie Chung, voiced concern on the X messaging platform. She said it had passed "without incorporating important input from key stakeholders, including civil society and tech companies," and that the "vague, overtly restrictive legislation can hinder investment and the development of a digital economy, undermining the economic growth that Sri Lanka needs."

She said the U.S. urged Sri Lanka to "prioritize transparency and ensure any legislation does not stifle the voice of its people."

But Sri Lanka is far from alone in tightening control of online discourse. Governments around the world are struggling to strike a balance between allowing free speech and checking the toxic tendencies of netizens. Some veer into outright censorship and internet shutdowns.

According to data from the digital rights organization AccessNow and the #KeepItOn coalition, a global movement to end internet blackouts, there were 187 such shutdowns across 35 countries in 2022.

In South Asia, Pakistani authorities in recent months have allegedly throttled social media to curb virtual political rallies held by the allies of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Officials blamed the outages on technical glitches.

India has been one of the most prolific countries when it comes to switching off online access, according to rights groups -- especially in the disputed territory of Kashmir as well as the strife-torn northeastern state of Manipur. Human Rights Watch and the Internet Freedom foundation said in a report last year that "since 2018, India has shut down the internet more than any other country in the world."

While authorities do so in the name of public safety, the rights groups stressed that such actions clash with the country’s efforts to become a more digital society. "Without the internet, people can’t reach government food and work programs or conduct activities like banking," they said.

At times, online censorship can be more stealthy -- such as the blocking this month of the Indian hate crime tracker Hindutva Watch, which kept an eye on religiously motivated right-wing crime, often perpetrated by those who support the ruling party. The move came just ahead of India’s elections due in April and May.

New broadcasting laws in India have also drawn criticism from activists who say they give authorities broad powers to regulate entertainment, journalism and the internet.

In Bangladesh, too, in the run-up to the country’s controversial election in early January, United Nations experts cited "internet shutdowns to disrupt protests" as one of several anti-democratic moves that left them "deeply disturbed."

Back in Sri Lanka, Ambika Satkunanathan, a human rights activist and former commissioner of the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka, acknowledged that the Online Safety Act had passed with a clear majority but said there was not enough time for informed debate.

Hers was one of 51 petitions that opposed the law in the Supreme Court in 2023. The court suggested that some amendments be made to the bill. But, she said, "MPs did not have time to view the consolidated version of the bill before the debate started." Some opposition lawmakers argued the final bill did not comply with all of the court’s recommendations -- an argument the government brushed aside as a stalling tactic.

Even with this controversial inclusion of some amendments, Satkunanathan said the bill is concerning. "It curbs dissent, restricts freedom of speech and puts so much power in the hands of authorities," she said. "Of most concern are the provisions that amount to criminalizing defamation, [which] can easily be misused. As a result, there’s a great deal of fear, anxiety and misinformation among the general public."
India offers to supply LNG to Sri Lankan power plants - Sri Lanka minister (Reuters)
Reuters [2/1/2024 5:34 AM, Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Nidhi Verma, 5239K, Positive]
India has proposed to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Sri Lanka to help the island nation produce power from its Yughadhanavi and Sobhadabavi power plants, Sri Lanka’s Energy Minister said on Thursday.

"In the efforts to expedite the process to generate power from LNG the Government of India has proposed an interim solution from Petronet LNG (PLNG.NS), opens new tab," Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said in a post on social media platform X.

He said the interim solution was discussed with Sri Lankan government officials, the Indian High Commision, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and Petronet LNG.

Petronet LNG is India’s top gas importer.
Central Asia
Early Notice: Kyrgyz President Japarov Will Seek Second Term (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [2/1/2024 3:12 PM, Catherine Putz, 201K, Positive]
As Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov marked three years in power this week, officials in his government confirmed that he’d seek a second term.

Deputy Prime Minister Edil Baisalov said Japarov would take part in the next election during an Azattyk program on January 29. “The constitution allows it, so he will not just abandon things halfway,” he said. “The people will not allow it either. The people have hope now. And in the next three years, they will witness significant achievements.” He said Japarov would not quote his job “halfway.”

Presidential spokesman Askat Alagozov confirmed it the next day, commenting that in light of the long-term, strategically important projects that the Japarov government has undertaken, “Japarov’s participation in the elections for a second term would be consistent with his policies.”

Japarov was elected in a snap presidential electron in January 2021 that occurred in tandem with the first of two constitutional referenda that year. Although Japarov’s interim government hoped to push through a sweeping referendum alongside the presidential election, that first referendum ultimately asked Kyrgyz voters one question: What form of government they supported. In essence, the questions was if the country should adopt (or rather, re-adopt) a presidential system, ditching the parliamentary system it had operated under since the referendum that followed the 2010 revolution.

Japarov was elected with 79.83 percent of the vote, and 84 percent of voters opted for a presidential system. Only 39 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. At the time he was elected, Kyrgyzstan’s constitution allowed for presidents to serve a single six-year term. This, too, was a standard set after the 2010 revolution.

A few months later, in April 2021, Kyrgyzstan held a second constitutional referendum, which asked voters to approve or nix an entirely new constitution giving form to the presidential system earlier selected. Dubbed the “Khanstitution,” the new law of the land shrank the parliament from 120 to 90 seats and created the national Kurultai, “a traditional people’s council with delegates from all regions of the country” that mirrors the parliament in some ways, although without voter input into the selection of members. The new constitution also, in grand Central Asian tradition, tinkered with the presidential term: Shifting from a single six-year term to two five-year terms. That referendum was approved by 85 percent of voters, although turnout was just 36 percent.

Given that Japarov was elected in 2021, under the old constitution, a presidential election is not expected until 2027. But across the region, elections don’t necessarily occur as scheduled. In Kyrgyzstan, early elections have typically come after revolutions, such as the early election that confirmed Japarov as president in 2021, and the 2011 election that brought Almazbek Atambeyv to power.

Elsewhere, early elections have occurred after massive political shifts or more often after referendums. For example, after Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, resigned in March 2019 – the chair of the Senate, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, became president as the constitution mandated. But he soon called for a snap election to cement himself in power. Just three years later, after seeing through a constitutional referendum that, among other things, tinkered with the presidential term – ditching two five-year terms for a single seven-year term, Tokayev called for another early election and was reelected in November 2022.

Precisely why the topic of Japarov running for a second term has floated to the surface of political discourse at this moment is not clear.

The Kyrgyz government claims to have fended off repeated coup attempts, has busied itself with jailing opponents and journalists, and has done little to inculcate international goodwill by pushing forward a restrictive “foreign representatives” bill. There was also considerable drama (and eye-rolling) as the Kyrgyz parliament decided to redesigned the country’s flag.

Baisalov’s comment that Japarov would not quit his job “halfway” could just as easily be a reference to the two terms allowed under the present constitution, or to the three-year mark in a single six-year term to which Japarov was elected. There’s no doubt that Japarov will run for a second term; whether that comes sooner than 2027 is something only time will tell.
‘We’ll Kill You’: Karakalpak Students Face Threats, Arrest In Uzbekistan For Voicing Support For Anti-Government Protests (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/1/2024 4:06 PM, Farangis Najibullah, 223K, Negative]
"I was taken to a dark room with no windows, where four men -- two of them in police uniforms -- threatened me, saying: ‘We’ll kill you here and no one will know.’"

This is how a university student from Karakalpakstan, an autonomous region in Uzbekistan’s northwest that was the scene of unprecedented protests in 2022, described the threats he said he received during detention.

The young man -- whose name is being withheld due to security concerns -- told RFE/RL that he was temporarily detained after calling jailed protester Dauletmurat Tajimuratov a "hero" on social media.

The student is among dozens who have been arrested, fined, or expelled from universities since the mass anti-government protests erupted in Karakalpakstan’s capital, Nukus, in July 2022, according to activists.

Three students told RFE/RL that they had received written warnings from the police. They said the authorities also threatened retaliation against their families if they did not cooperate.

Karakalpak government officials did not respond to RFE/RL’s request for comment.

The protests were sparked by the Uzbek authorities’ decision to draft constitutional amendments that would have removed the 2 million-strong region’s legal right to hold a referendum on secession from Uzbekistan.

Tajimuratov was among the thousands of protesters who openly opposed the move and took part in the rallies. In 2023, Tajimuratov was sentenced to 16 years in prison after he was convicted of undermining the constitutional order of the country. He has denied the charge.

Tashkent abandoned the draft constitutional changes after the protests erupted. The authorities said at least 21 people were killed in the unrest.

Even after the end of the dayslong demonstrations, the government has continued to crack down on supporters of the protests, according to local activists and residents.

‘We’re Watching You’

A Karakalpak activist shared audio with RFE/RL that he said was recorded during a meeting between university professors and students at Karakalpak State University in Nukus.

Meeting organizers can be heard warning students not to support anti-government protests and warning students that their activities on Telegram and other social media were being watched closely.

A woman who was presented as law professor Raikhan Sayekeyeva told the audience that several students had been punished over their political views. "A female student has been expelled from the philology faculty and was sentenced to 10-day administrative detention for her post on Telegram that read: ‘Shall we continue in the same spirit, when will we start?’ Another student from the physics faculty shared similar comments," she said.

"[We have established that] a first-year student from the law faculty subscribed to [opposition] Telegram channels. There are also students from the faculties of chemistry and technology," the professor said, before concluding, "The number of students who have joined these Telegram channels has now increased."

The meeting organizers also ordered students not to support Tajimuratov, whom they called a "political provocateur and fraudster." The audience was shown a short video condemning Tajimuratov.

At least 10 students have been expelled from the economics faculty since September over their social-media posts, according to a Telegram channel created by that faculty’s students.

RFE/RL could not independently verify the authenticity of the recording.

The university did not respond to RFE/RL’s request for comment.

Increased Pressure

Prominent Karakalpak activist Aqylbek Muratbai told RFE/RL on February 1 that dozens of students had been summoned for questioning, sentenced to administrative arrest, fined, or expelled from universities when "the government pressure on young people in Karakalpakstan intensified after the protests."

According to Muratbai, who lives in neighboring Kazakhstan, students in Karakalpakstan are being targeted for "sharing or merely liking a comment" on social media that the authorities deem a threat to the state. "A female student was given a suspended five-year prison sentence for writing comments on a pro-opposition [Telegram] channel," he said.

He said some students had received fines of up to $160, a significant sum in Uzbekistan, where the average monthly salary of state employees is about $360.

RFE/RL obtained a copy of an official letter that was sent by the police to a Nukus student, who was accused of "posting comments on separatist topics" that promoted "discontent" and "protest ideas." The letter warned the student of potential criminal liability for his actions.

"I’ve received many such witness accounts from Karakalpakstan," Muratbai said. "They share copies of police letters or court rulings, but the students are too afraid to speak to the media openly, given the threats they face."
Indo-Pacific
China Is Quietly Expanding Its Land Grabs in the Himalayas (Foreign Policy)
Foreign Policy [2/1/2024 11:27 AM, Anchal Vohra, 315K, Neutral]
As the U.S. government has spent ever more of its time in recent years preparing to respond to any potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Beijing has been busy slicing away parts of the tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan. Over the last few years, China has built massive infrastructure with hundreds of concrete structures, military posts, and administrative centers in the region of Beyul Khenpajong, some 12,000 feet in the northern Himalayan mountains. The so-called “hidden valley” is deemed sacred by Bhutanese, with the country’s royal family tracing its ancestral heritage to the area.

China’s blatant land grab of Bhutanese territory is just its latest move to control areas of significance in Buddhist culture, exploit a far less resourceful neighbor, and challenge its regional rival India in the Himalayas.

China’s expansion in the Beyul was first reported in Foreign Policy in 2021 by Robert Barnett, an expert on Tibet and the China-Bhutan border. Barnett wrote that while China had announced the settlement of a single village called Gyalaphug in the contested valley back in 2015, tens of miles of road and several key military buildings were in place in the Beyul and the neighboring Menchuma Valley by 2021.

He spoke to Foreign Policy from Paris last week and said that over the last two years, construction in the valley “more than doubled.”

In his 2021 report, Barnett and his team of researchers spotted 66 miles of new roads, a small hydropower plant, a communications base, five military or police outposts, and a major signals tower, among other edifices, in the Beyul and the Menchuma Valley.

According to a report on an Indian news channel, those scattered buildings now lie in fully established strips of townships with hundreds of multistory structures. The cars parked outside the buildings give the impression that the areas are inhabited, even though in 1998 China agreed with Bhutan to stick to the status quo until a final border settlement could be reached.

Bhutan, however, is a nation of just 800,000 inhabitants and a humble $3 billion economy. It has neither the economic nor the military means to respond to Chinese encroachments.

A Chatham House report published last month said that despite the cultural significance of the region, the Bhutanese government has been “powerless to stop Chinese settlement.” Experts worry that Bhutan may have to cede territory to avoid a confrontation between nuclear-armed India and China.

“The new outposts in Bhutan’s remote Jakarlung Valley, part of the Beyul Khenpajong region, may become permanent Chinese territory after an announcement on a border deal between the two countries expected soon,” John Pollock and Damien Symon warned in the Chatham report.

The 25th and latest round of talks between Thimphu and Beijing were held in October, four decades after negotiations to resolve the border dispute started. China claims 495 square kilometers (191 square miles) of territory in north-central Bhutan in the Jakarlung and Pasumlung valleys (Jakarlung is part of the Beyul) and 269 square kilometers (104 square miles) in the Doklam plateau in the west on Bhutan’s border with India. In 2020, China added Sakteng in the east to its list reportedly to seek advantage in negotiations.

The fact that China’s claims in Bhutan are based on the assertion that these regions are a part of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) has left the Tibetans flabbergasted. They are offended that China is pushing forward its imperialist agenda in their name.

Lobsang Sangay, a former Tibetan leader in exile and currently a senior visiting fellow at Harvard Law School’s East Asian legal studies program, said that “history is complex and details matter,” dodging Foreign Policy’s question if Tibetans claim this territory and acknowledge a border dispute with Bhutan. But he added that it was “pretty clear Chinese troops have no right to be in the area because Tibet itself was illegally invaded and continues to be under occupation.”

A Bhutanese source who is aware of the thinking in the Bhutanese government and who spoke to Foreign Policy on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter said Bhutan is desperately trying to “avoid a full-scale war” between New Delhi and Beijing.

The Chinese expanded in the Beyul to coerce Bhutan into ceding control of a more strategic area near India, the Doklam plateau, but it has since expanded in both regions and upped the ante without any repercussions or costs.

“It’s not surprising that China is claiming Khenpajong and Doklam areas,” Sangay said. “China is implementing what it said in the 1950s, that Tibet is the palm and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal are five fingers. First occupy Tibet, then we occupy five fingers,” he added in reference to Mao Zedong’s imperialist vision for three Indian states and Nepal and Bhutan.

Back in the 1990s, Beijing had offered Thimphu a package deal under which it would give up its claim in the northern parts in exchange for Doklam. But Bhutan refused, owing to deep historic and economic ties with India. (Some 70 percent of Bhutanese imports come from India, the local currency is pegged to the Indian rupee, and India controlled Bhutanese foreign affairs under a treaty signed in 1949 that was replaced with a much lighter version only in 2007.)

Bhutan believes that refusal led to Chinese expansion in its sacred areas. “This is basically a price Bhutan is paying for not budging over the demand on the western sector and because border talks dragged on for too long,” the Bhutanese source said. “That is what China is making us pay for.”

In 2017, India and China nearly went to war as Chinese soldiers tried to extend a road from Chumbi Valley in the TAR to Doklam, all the way to the Jampheri ridge, which offers a direct view to the Siliguri corridor—India’s Achilles’s heel. It connects the rest of India to seven federal states in the northeast and is just 14 miles wide, which makes it militarily easy to sever. If China gets access to the Jampheri ridge, it can better surveil the Siliguri corridor, often dubbed the “chicken’s neck,” and have huge leverage over India.

The tense standoff finally subsided as the Chinese stepped back, but that didn’t stop China from further expanding in Doklam. China built a whole village called Pangda inside the plateau, at a distance of just a few miles from the key ridge.

“There is a stalemate with a large number of Indian troops stationed in the area,” Sangay said. “But the Chinese have built major infrastructure with a permanent helipad and army camp. They are there to stay. Bhutan is under tremendous pressure to compromise, which means to give strategic advantage to Chinese troops.”

Nobody feels more pressure than Bhutan, but a denial in 2020 by the Bhutanese ambassador to India, Vetsop Namgyel, that “there is no Chinese village inside Bhutan” rang alarm bells in New Delhi and caused suspicion that Bhutan, India’s closest ally in South Asia, may have decided to hand over Doklam, or at least parts of it, to China.

There are signs that Indian faith in its firm relations with Bhutan is wavering. Even though New Delhi never directly questioned Bhutan’s intentions, experts feel it deployed the Indian media to insinuate that Bhutan may have shut its eyes to Chinese construction in Doklam.

There are concerns in India that the urge to put an end to Chinese encroachment and to expand its economy may encourage Bhutan to open up to China. S.D. Muni, a former diplomat and professor emeritus at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said that according to his Bhutanese friends, a third of Bhutanese consumer imports already come from China via third nations.

On their part, the Bhutanese say such mistrust is unwarranted. They maintain they will never sell out India’s strategic interests and emphasize the importance of resolving the border dispute with China, even if that comes with establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing, which Thimphu has thus far resisted.

New Delhi finds the prospect of a Chinese embassy in Thimphu unappetizing and fears sharing if not losing influence over Bhutan. Worse, if China entraps Bhutan into taking expensive loans in the future, it could coerce Bhutan into giving up control of Doklam. (Bhutan has remained out of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.)

Bhutan, however, may be able to balance out any future Chinese influence by also opening up ties with other main powers, notably the United States. Bhutan, often described as the last Shangri-La, has deliberately stayed away from establishing diplomatic ties with any of the main powers in its quest to stay equidistant and not irk the Chinese. It may be time to change that, said the Bhutanese source, who felt that opening up to the United States may serve Bhutan’s interests.

“It now seems to be a widespread view in Bhutan that formal relations with its northern neighbor cannot be endlessly delayed,” Barnett added. “But we can be fairly sure that if Bhutan accepts a Chinese embassy in Thimphu, it will invite the U.S. and the other main powers to formalize relations with it, too.”
Twitter
Afghanistan
SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[2/2/2024 3:00 AM, 168.6K followers]
The 2023 #StateDept country strategy says the United States will pursue bilateral cooperation with the Taliban on counterterrorism measures in Afghanistan, and cites combating Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) as a point of mutual interest https://sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2024-01-30qr.pdf#page=24

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[2/1/2024 3:00 PM, 168.6K followers, 2 retweets, 10 likes]
According to new #StateDept integrated country strategy, objectives are to ensure #AFG is never again used for attacks against U.S. and its allies, and to reduce Afghanistan’s dependency on U.S. assistance https://sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2024-01-30qr.pdf#page=23

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[2/1/2024 12:00 PM, 168.6K followers, 31 retweets, 35 likes]
For the first time, SIGAR answers critical question of whether, after two & a half years since US withdrawal, life is getting better/worse for Afghan people. Improvement in a few areas such as counternarcotics, but most social, economic & humanitarian indicators clearly worsening

Sami Sadat
@SayedSamiSadat
[2/1/2024 5:08 PM, 75K followers, 50 retweets, 228 likes]
It’s dangerous to see China has now accepted the Taliban ambassador. We not only condemn this but see this is unprovoked hostility by China against the people of Afghanistan. Taliban are a terrorist organization and empowering them and other terror networks will add to more global instability

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[2/1/2024 5:33 AM, 62.1K followers, 37 retweets, 73 likes]
The ICJ offers governments that have expressed their solidarity with Afghan women a practical way to put Taliban abuses under judicial scrutiny – one which, as illustrated in other recent cases, can produce measures that could have a positive impact.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[2/1/2024 4:50 PM, 250.8K followers, 10 retweets, 45 likes]
Oh, what a surprise! Former Kandahar Governor and US ally Gul Agha Shirzai’s mysterious disappearance has finally ended with his sudden reappearance in Kandahar. After supposedly fleeing to Pakistan following the collapse of the republic, it seems he quietly made his way back to Afghanistan. And lo and behold, the Taliban, in their ever-so-humble fashion, claim to have valiantly rescued him from a flash flood in the Dand district. How fortunate for him to have such benevolent saviors!

Muhammad Jalal
@MJalal0093
[2/2/2024 1:53 AM, 109.6K followers, 10 retweets, 105 likes]
Over the past 2 and a half years, Afghan army has seen a significant improvement and organized progress. From disciplining the ranks, organizing the military structures, training & graduation of new cadets, it is the rise and rise of Afghan army. #Peace
Pakistan
BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[2/2/2024 1:51 AM, 5.1M followers, 199 retweets, 302 likes]
A Conversation on Politics, Elections, Trauma, & Mental Health | Bilawal Bhutto | Talha Ahad Podcast @talhaahad

BilawalBhuttoZardari
@BBhuttoZardari
[2/1/2024 7:17 AM, 5.1M followers, 2.3K retweets, 3.5K likes]
For too long Balochistan has been neglected, deprived, and ignored. Our brothers and sisters in Khuzdar want an end to violence, inflation, poverty, and unemployment. Old politics redirected CPECs route from Balochistan to Punjab, depriving its people of development, jobs, and better lives. The Pakistan Peoples Party believes in empowering the people of Balochistan to make decisions in their own interests. We need to choose a new politics that puts an end to paternalistic bureaucrats in Islamabad thinking they know what’s best for local communities. Vote Teer on 8th February and choose empowerment, choose development, and choose a better tomorrow

Muhammad Jalal
@MJalal0093
[2/2/2024 2:45 AM, 109.6K followers, 2 retweets, 4 likes]
Mohammad Khorasani, the spokesperson of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), rejected the report of UN Security Council regarding the support of the Islamic Emirate to the TTP & vehemently refuted any allegations of financial support from IEA to TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud.
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/1/2024 9:54 AM, 95M followers, 2K retweets, 7.9K likes]
The continuation of the Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund (AHIDF), as decided by the Cabinet, will create several opportunities for the youth and enhance income of farmers. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2001054

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/1/2024 9:52 AM, 95M followers, 2.5K retweets, 10K likes]
This Cabinet decision is great news for the textiles sector, which is vital to India’s economic growth. It will significantly enhance the competitiveness of Indian products and boost exports. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2001050

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/1/2024 2:42 AM, 95M followers, 15K retweets, 27K likes]
The #ViksitBharatBudget benefits every section of the society and lays the foundation for a developed India.

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[2/1/2024 7:19 AM, 23.9M followers, 228 retweets, 2.2K likes]
Governor of Karnataka, Shri Thaawar Chand Gehlot called on President Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhavan.

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[2/1/2024 3:19 AM, 23.9M followers, 497 retweets, 4K likes]
President Droupadi Murmu met a group of students from vibrant villages of Eastern Ladakh who visited Rashtrapati Bhavan as part of their National Integration Tour.

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/1/2024 5:37 AM, 1.5M followers, 19 retweets, 205 likes]
Shri Thaawarchand Gehlot Ji, Hon’ble Governor of Karnataka, called on the Hon’ble Vice-President, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar at Parliament House today. @TCGEHLOT @TcGehlotOffice

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/1/2024 5:37 AM, 1.5M followers, 69 retweets, 699 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President and Chairman, Rajya Sabha, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar interacted with Members of Parliament at Parliament House today. #RajyaSabha #BudgetSession

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/1/2024 4:08 AM, 1.5M followers, 130 retweets, 1.3K likes]
Hon’ble Chairman of Rajya Sabha, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar chaired a meeting of the Business Advisory Committee (Rajya Sabha) in Parliament House today. #RajyaSabha #BudgetSession

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[2/1/2024 9:06 AM, 3M followers, 401 retweets, 2.6K likes]
Important Cabinet decisions taken today:
1.Approval of signing and ratification of Bilateral Investment Treaty between India and UAE. Treaty is expected to improve investor confidence and increase Foreign Investments and Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) opportunities.
2.Approval of extension of Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund. Will leverage private investment and motivate farmers to invest more and drive higher productivity.
3.Extension of scheme of sugar subsidy for Antyodya Anna Yojna (AAY) families distributed through Public Distribution Scheme (PDS) for two more years. Facilitates access of sugar to the poorest of the poor and adds energy to their diet improving their health.
4.Approval for determination of marketing margin for supply of Domestic gas to Fertilizer (Urea) for the Period May 2009 – November 2015. Structural reform which will incentivize manufacturers to increase investment and lead to self-sufficiency in fertilizers.
5.Approval of continuation of Scheme for Rebate of State and Central Taxes and Levies for export of Apparel/Garments and Made ups. Has helped in enhancing competitiveness of Indian exports of apparel and made ups which are value added and labour intensive segments of the Textile Value Chain.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[2/1/2024 2:54 AM, 3M followers, 187 retweets, 1.4K likes]
A notable feature of the Interim Budget is the stress on new age technologies and data. PM Modi’s message of ‘Jai Anusandhan’ is a call to our tech savvy youth. Creating a corpus, gives it credibility and practicality. Confident that the Amrit Peedi would respond to the call, promoting an #AtmanirbharBharat.

Sidhant Sibal
@sidhant
[2/1/2024 9:39 PM, 264.3K followers, 88 retweets, 833 likes]
Our partnership with India is one of most consequential relationships. We work closely with India on our most vital priorities, says US State department on India US ties

Sidhant Sibal
@sidhant
[2/1/2024 9:36 PM, 264.3K followers, 35 retweets, 351 likes]
"Close working relationship, where they are able to engage on some of our most urgent and important priorities", US State department on US secretary of State Blinken, & EAM Jaishankar ties

Tanvi Madan
@tanvi_madan
[2/1/2024 11:15 AM, 87.7K followers, 25 retweets, 136 likes]
"State Dept has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Govt of India of MQ-9B Remotely Piloted Aircraft & related equipment for an estimated cost of $3.99 bn...DSCA delivered the reqd certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today"

Tanvi Madan
@tanvi_madan
[2/1/2024 11:57 AM, 87.7K followers, 6 retweets, 37 likes]
If we want to talk timelines, worth recalling that the US first offered these to India more than *six* years ago. Both systems take their time. For their own reasons.

Taranjit Singh Sandhu
@SandhuTaranjitS
[2/1/2024 7:05 AM, 78K followers, 122 retweets, 1K likes]
Adieu, Washington DC! As I depart, sharing a few glimpses from an incredible journey. Always and forever: no greater honour, than serving India. https://twitter.com/i/status/1753026720775467475
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[2/1/2024 9:15 AM, 635.7K followers, 50 retweets, 132 likes]
PM #SheikhHasina has unveiled a graphic novel based on #Bangabandhu’s autobiography ‘The New China as I saw’ today at the Bangla Academy premises. Published by @crihere, the graphic novel will be available throughout the Book Fair 2024. @RadwanSiddiq @NasrulHamid_MP #CRIPublications

Nasrul Hamid
@NasrulHamid_MP
[2/1/2024 9:38 AM, 11.3K followers, 21 retweets, 77 likes]
Delighted to be present at Amar Ekushey Book Fair, where PM #SheikhHasina unveiled cover of "Amar Dekha Noya Chin" graphic novel on Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s 1952 China tour. Published by @crihere Trustee Radwan Mujib Siddiq, it’ll be at stall 878-879. Grab your copies.

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[2/1/2024 6:11 AM, 5K followers, 1 retweet, 6 likes]
The Coalition for Human Rights & Democracy in #Bangladesh (CHRD Bangladesh) continues to express great concerns at the continuing deterioration of democracy and human rights in Bangladesh ever since Sheikh Hasina illegally usurped power in 2009 and continued to stay in authority through repeated electoral frauds. Statement On The Deteriorating State Of Democracy And Human Rights In Bangladesh https://southasiajournal.net/statement-on-the-deteriorating-state-of-democracy-and-human-rights-in-bangladesh/ via @South Asia Journal

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[2/1/2024 4:19 AM, 4.8K followers, 2 retweets, 4 likes]
An article published in the #Geneva Times on my address at the @cambridgeunion https://genevatimes.ch/sri-lankan-foreign-minister-addresses-cambridge-union-reflects-on-nations-journey-and-challenges/
Central Asia
MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[2/2/2024 1:03 AM, 4.5K followers, 1 like]
Meeting with the Head of the Culture and Media Committee of the Bundestag https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14278/meeting-with-the-head-of-the-culture-and-media-committee-of-the-bundestag

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[1/31/2024 4:46 AM, 4.5K followers, 1 retweet, 1 like]
Meeting with the Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Turkmenistan for the trade complex, textile industry and entrepreneurship https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14268/meeting-with-the-deputy-chairman-of-the-cabinet-of-ministers-of-turkmenistan-for-the-trade-complex-textile-industry-and-entrepreneurship

Uzbekistan MFA
@uzbekmfa
[2/1/2024 10:55 AM, 6.8K followers, 1 like]
On February 1, 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan hosted a presentation of ongoing and planned US grants in the area of economic development.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[2/1/2024 10:23 AM, 22.5K followers, 3 retweets, 5 likes]
Uzbekistan stats #demographics: Nearly equal number of women and men among 36.8 mln population. Also no significant difference between the number of rural and urban population.

Navbahor Imamova
@Navbahor
[2/1/2024 10:07 AM, 22.5K followers, 2 retweets, 3 likes]
Uzbekistan’s State Security Agency chief Abdusalom Azizov in Kabul holding talks with the Taliban, discussing border, trade, and transit.

{End of Report}
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