epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Friday, February 16, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
World Bank approves shift to channel IDA funds to Afghanistan humanitarian aid (Reuters)
Reuters [2/15/2024 5:57 PM, David Lawder, 5239K, Neutral]
The World Bank Group said on Thursday its executive board endorsed a new approach to aiding Afghanistan that will deploy some $300 million from the bank’s International Development Association fund for poor countries through United Nations agencies and other international organizations.

The development lender said the funds would remain outside the control of the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan and would complement Afghanistan Resilience Trust Fund (ARTF) donor financing in supporting critical basic services such as food, water, health, education and jobs.

The shift marks the first time that the World Bank’s own funds would be sent to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. Since then, the ARTF has channeled $1.5 billion in donor aid through partner organizations to benefit some 25 million Afghans.

The IDA fund disburses grants and highly concessional loans to the world’s poorest countries, and its resources are replenished every few years by donor countries, with the current $93 billion replenishment set to conclude in 2025. World Bank President Ajay Banga has called for the next IDA replenishment round to set a new record as demands for its funding grows.

The World Bank said its new "Approach 3.0" to Afghanistan aims to deliver basic services at scale, including supporting employment opportunities through the microfinancing of income-generating activities, and facilitating private-sector participation in the delivery of aid.

The bank said it was continuing its previous ARTF principles of putting women at the center of projects and ensuring that project activities are implemented by and for women. This puts some of the international aid agencies’ activities at odds with Taliban policies that deny rights to women, such as in education.

A World Bank spokesperson said the $300 million in available funding would run until June 30, 2025, through the remainder of the current fiscal year and all of the next fiscal year.
Azerbaijani Envoy Hands Letter To Taliban On Opening Embassy In Kabul (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/15/2024 1:11 PM, Staff, 223K, Neutral]
Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government says Azerbaijan has officially reopened its embassy in Kabul, following through on a pledge made last year.

A spokesman for the Taliban-led government’s Foreign Ministry, Abdul Qahar Balkhi, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on February 15 that Azerbaijani Ambassador to Afghanistan Ilham Mammadov arrived in the Afghan capital and handed an official letter on opening the oil-rich South Caucasus state’s embassy in Kabul to Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

"This meeting discussed the beginning of diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and Azerbaijan, economic cooperation and many other issues," Balkhi wrote, adding that Muttaqi called the opening of the embassy and the sending of ambassador-level diplomats "an important development in bilateral relations."

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a law on opening an embassy in Kabul in January 2021. In July the same year, Mammadov was appointed the ambassador to Kabul.

In December, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov said Azerbaijan would open its embassy in Kabul in 2024.

Azerbaijani armed forces took part in the international anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan. They left the country along with the U.S.-led international forces in August 2021, after which the Taliban, which is internationally recognized as a terrorist organization, returned to power.

Mammadov’s trip to Kabul comes three days before UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to host an international meeting in Doha, Qatar, to discuss joint efforts to assist the people of Afghanistan.

The Taliban confirmed earlier this month that it had received an invitation to the meeting and was considering "meaningful participation" in it.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan drove millions into poverty and hunger after foreign aid stopped almost overnight.

Sanctions against the Taliban rulers, a halt on bank transfers, and frozen billions in Afghanistan’s currency reserves have cut off access to global institutions and the outside money that supported the aid-dependent economy before the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces.
Under Sanctions, Taliban Pay Debts, Seek More Electricity From Neighbors (VOA)
VOA [2/15/2024 2:32 PM, Akmal Dawi, 761K, Negative]
Afghanistan has cleared its outstanding electricity debts to three Central Asian neighbors and is negotiating for an increase in energy supplies, a move that could signal the Taliban government is moving toward economic stabilization.

Landlocked Afghanistan relies heavily on energy imports, obtaining more than 70 percent of its electricity from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as some from Iran.

This year, Tajikistan officials say they will export 1.9 billion kilowatt-hours of power to Afghanistan, a 17% boost from last year.

Taliban officials are actively seeking further increases from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, according to DABS, the Taliban-run national electricity company of Afghanistan.

In December, Afghanistan renewed electricity purchase agreements with the three Central Asian republics, securing continued energy supply.

Afghanistan’s electricity payments fell into arrears following the collapse of the former government in August 2021. This prompted service cut-off threats from some suppliers.

Facing severe banking and economic sanctions, the new Taliban government struggled to make timely payments for nearly a year.

Last week, a spokesperson for DABS said Kabul paid a staggering $627 million in bills incurred by the former government.

However, Amanullah Ghalib, a former DABS director, disputes this figure.

"The outstanding payments were $40 to $50 million tops," Ghalib told VOA.

"Payments were due every two weeks, and delinquencies incurred strict fines and fees. It was not like DABS had not paid for years or months."

Afghanistan pays approximately $250 million annually for 600 to 650 megawatts of imported electricity, Ghalib added.

VOA reached out to the spokesperson for DABS for clarification on the payment and amount, but he declined to comment.

Business over politics

Despite none of the three Central Asian energy suppliers officially recognizing the interim Taliban government, economic interests continue to drive their ongoing deals with Kabul.

While Turkmenistan maintains robust trade with Afghanistan, Tajikistan has offered shelter to some anti-Taliban insurgents, and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has called for the formation of an inclusive Afghan government.

"Economic interests make them deal with the Taliban," said Ghalib about relations between Afghanistan and its neighbors.

With warnings of economic collapse following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, Afghanistan’s economic picture remains complex.

Donors, who provided more than half of the former Afghan government’s budget, cut off development aid, imposed sanctions on the country’s fragile banking sector, and froze more than $9 billion of its financial assets abroad.

However, the World Bank reports that the Afghan currency has remained stable against others, annual domestic revenue hit about $2 billion, and exports reached $1.9 billion in 2023.

"While there are a few bright spots in the overall macroeconomic picture of Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover in 2021, the economy’s overall situation is deeply troubling," Khaled Payenda, former Afghan finance minister, told VOA.

Poverty and unemployment have risen sharply in the country since the Taliban’s return to power, aid agencies have reported.

"The Afghan economy cannot be sustainable in the long run without a growth engine, which has been missing," Payenda said.
Zalmay Khalilzad’s Testimony: Unraveling the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan (BNN)
BNN [2/15/2024 2:41 PM, Staff, Neutral]
On a brisk morning, as the nation tuned into the proceedings of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the spotlight fell on Zalmay Khalilzad, the architect behind the U.S. withdrawal strategy from Afghanistan. His scheduled testimony was not just a routine briefing; it was a pivotal moment set to unravel the intricacies of a decision that has shaped the course of American foreign policy in the region. As the former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Khalilzad was poised to address the assembly on the critical events leading up to the withdrawal of military forces in 2021, a narrative interwoven with the fabric of peace, conflict, and diplomatic endeavors spanning from 2018 to 2021.

The Genesis of Withdrawal

The core of Khalilzad’s testimony hinged on the U.S.-Taliban deal, a landmark agreement he negotiated, aimed at bringing an end to America’s longest war. This accord, marked by its ambition to secure peace in Afghanistan, faced its ultimate test when President Trump declared the peace talks with the Taliban "dead," subsequently canceling a covert meeting with the group’s negotiators. Khalilzad’s insights were expected to shed light on the tumultuous journey of peace talks that oscillated between moments of hope and periods of despair, culminating in a scenario where the dreams of reconciliation seemed to slip through the cracks of diplomatic endeavors.

Unraveling the Doha Agreement

At the heart of Khalilzad’s discourse was the Doha Agreement, a pivotal element in the U.S.’s strategy in Afghanistan. The hearing, aptly titled ‘Behind the Scenes: How the Biden Administration Failed to Enforce the Doha Agreement,’ promised an in-depth look into the intricacies of the deal and the subsequent decisions that led to the withdrawal of U.S. forces. This dialogue was not merely about the administrative actions but a narrative on the expectations, the commitments, and the stark realities faced on the ground. Khalilzad, through his testimony, aimed to navigate through the complex dynamics of international diplomacy, military strategies, and the unforeseen consequences that unfolded.

The Aftermath and Reflections

The withdrawal from Afghanistan marks a significant chapter in U.S. military and diplomatic history, with repercussions that resonate beyond the immediate geopolitical landscape. Khalilzad’s reflections on the process, the challenges, and the lessons learned were anticipated to offer a comprehensive understanding of a series of events that have not only shaped the destiny of Afghanistan but also the contours of global peace and security. The testimony was a moment of reckoning, a time to dissect the decisions that led to the end of an era and the dawn of a new chapter in international relations.

In conclusion, as the nation absorbed the profound insights shared by Zalmay Khalilzad, the testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee was more than a recounting of events; it was a narrative steeped in the ethos of diplomacy, the harsh realities of conflict, and the perennial quest for peace. The journey from the negotiation tables to the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan encapsulated a range of emotions, strategies, and outcomes that will continue to be analyzed and debated. However, the essence of Khalilzad’s message underscored a fundamental truth about the complexities of nation-building and the indomitable spirit of hope that guides the path toward reconciliation and understanding.
80,000 Afghan Refugees Earned Their New Home (Bloomberg – opinion)
Bloomberg [2/15/2024 7:00 AM, Patricia Lopez, 5543K, Neutral]
Nearly 80,000 Afghan refugees are waiting — in vain so far — for Congress to make good on a pledge to allow them to make the US their permanent home. These refugees are distinctly different from others: They risked everything to help U.S. troops in the 20-year Afghanistan war, providing critical translation services, intelligence gathering and myriad other tasks upon which troops depended.

Now, another chance to fulfill that promise is gone. An intense effort by a bipartisan coalition of senators to attach permanent status for these refugees to the bill for to provide $95 billion in aid for Ukraine and Israel has come to naught. The bill passed overnight on Monday, but without the amendment that would have ended the refugees’ limbo.

The Afghans are here on temporary humanitarian parole — yes, the same humanitarian parole that Republicans fought to restrict before the failed immigration compromise. Humanitarian parole protects the refugees from deportation and allows them to work. But it offers no path to permanent residency. They’re stuck in a bureaucratic netherworld, forced to reapply every two years to maintain even the temporary right to be here.

Lending urgency is the looming possibility of a second term for former president and presumptive nominee Donald Trump, who is promising mass deportations of those here without documents. Few believe he would make an exception for Afghan refugees.

Worse still, an estimated 34,000 refugees who aided US troops remain overseas, either hiding from the Taliban after American troop withdrawals in 2021, or in other refugee camps, where they often are ostracized. Some are in Pakistan and Iran, which have been actively deporting those who fled Taliban rule.

When the US pulled out of Afghanistan, after its years-long effort to eliminate the Taliban, it began one of the largest humanitarian evacuations in history, resettling tens of thousands of its Afghan allies across the country through Operation Allies Welcome, and granted them a two-year humanitarian parole. A 2023 Urban Institute report found that some benefits were tied to the two-year period. In Texas, for example, where some 10,000 evacuees resettled, the state issued drivers licenses that expired when the humanitarian parole did, making it even more difficult to obtain a job and housing. The report found the lack of permanent status was causing “enormous stress and uncertainty in Afghans’ lives and is compounded by not knowing when they’ll be reunited with family members. One stakeholder in the education system noted that Afghan school children have internalized this uncertainty, expressing concerns such as ‘I do not belong here, I do not belong there’.”

There is broad and growing support for the proposal first introduced by Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Republican Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas. Klobuchar compared the effort to the one that helped Hmong allies who aided US troops in Vietnam resettle here. Minnesota now has a large and thriving Hmong population whose ranks include lawmakers, business people and even an Olympic gymnast, Sunisa Lee.

“Many of these Afghans are highly educated,” Klobuchar said. “They were skilled interpreters and intelligence gatherers who can do well here.” More importantly, she said, “We gave our word. It’s just wrong not to keep our promises. We don’t want to be the country that turns our back on people who stand with us, that says you can come, but there’s a trap door under you.”

In addition to several ranking Republicans in the coalition, Klobuchar said, some of the biggest supporters of the effort are American veterans themselves, including the American Legion, Veterans of Foreign Wars, No One Left Behind, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America and even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, with its many members who are veterans.

American credibility is at issue here. US troops must be able to rely on locals in future conflicts. Betraying the trust of Afghans who risked so much for US efforts would send the world a terrible message. Our allies deserve better.
Pakistan
US concerned about reports of intimidation, voter suppression in Pakistan election, White House says (Reuters)
Reuters [2/15/2024 3:28 PM, Andrea Shalal and Gabriel Araujo, 5239K, Neutral]
The United States is concerned about reports of intimidation and voter suppression in Pakistan’s election, the White House said on Thursday after reports of protests in some parts of the country.

Pakistan’s election last week did not return a clear majority for anyone but independent candidates backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won 92 out of 264 seats, making them the largest group.

Questions have been raised about the fairness of the Feb. 8 election both inside Pakistan as well as in major foreign capitals, with Washington having previously said there were "undue restrictions" on freedoms of expressions and assembly.

"We are watching this very, very closely," White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday, expressing concern about "intimidation and voter suppression."

"International monitors are still taking a look at those tallies, I’m not going to get ahead of that process," he added about the vote count.
Pakistan’s Voters Defy Military, Reviving a Nation’s Democratic Hopes (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [2/15/2024 2:44 PM, Saeed Shah, 810K, Neutral]
Imran Khan wasn’t on Pakistan’s ballot last week. He was sitting in a prison cell on the outskirts of the capital.

Still, the opposition leader that many of his supporters have come to refer to as prisoner No. 804 delivered a stinging defeat to the country’s military.

Khan’s party members faced arrest. Their party symbol was banned from ballots. But millions came out to vote for candidates associated with Khan.

“This round was won by Imran Khan,” said Mohammad Zubair, a former minister in the previous government of Nawaz Sharif, whose party was seen as the front-runner and the preferred choice of the military. “We are looking at a completely changed Pakistan.”

The change might not be so apparent on the surface. This week, the rival parties announced that they had reached a deal to form a coalition government coalescing around Sharif’s party, ignoring the choice made by a plurality of voters.

Still, the result has shaken the country’s military, an institution long seen as all-powerful, and made clear the public discontent with its role in a country where it has ruled directly for decades and at other times shaped politics using other levers. Many voters rejected the compact between the army and established politicians—and the illusion of political stability it offered—delivering the opposite of what the army wanted, even though it would mean more political turmoil for the nuclear-armed nation of 240 million.

No prime ministers in Pakistan have ever completed their full term in power. But after Khan was ousted as prime minister in 2022, instead of going quietly, he took on the army brass in a way it had never seen before. He gave fiery speeches across the country about the need to curtail the military’s influence, tapping into discontent felt by ordinary Pakistanis over how the country is run. Voters rewarded him for it.

“At a time when we’ve seen democratic erosion across the world, this was a vote for democracy,” said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S.

Pakistan’s army has admitted to interfering in constitutional politics in the past, but said it no longer does so.

Khan, a celebrated former captain of the country’s cricket team, also played the game for a while, allying himself with the military, which eventually propelled him to power in the 2018 election. But when he tried to pursue an independent foreign policy, including reaching out to Russia—Pakistan and the U.S. have long been allies—and choosing his own spymaster, he lost its support.

Khan hasn’t thrown in the towel yet. After meeting with him inside his prison Thursday, his lawyers announced he had picked his candidate for prime minister and had called for protests across the country this Saturday over alleged vote-rigging that the party says robbed it of an outright victory.

Khan’s candidates, who hold about 90 seats, have filed legal challenges over about 40 seats of the 265 seats up for grabs.

The Election Commission, which attributed the delayed release of election results to internet issues, didn’t respond to a request for comment on the rigging allegations. The military has said the vote was “free and unhindered” and called for an end to political turmoil.

Despite back-channel jockeying continuing, political experts say the most likely outcome is a shaky government headed by Shehbaz Sharif—Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother and loyal deputy. The Sharifs’ Pakistan Muslim League-N party ultimately trailed Khan’s independents by a wide margin of seats.

“Does it happen in any country that the loser wins an election?” said Shabbir Hussain Abbasi, a 71-year-old who traveled two hours to the northern city of Rawalpindi on Sunday to join a protest by Khan’s party, which attracted thousands in towns around the country. “This isn’t democracy.”

Tarnished by legitimacy questions, the likely government will have to take challenging decisions almost as soon as it takes power at the end of this month, when it will need to demonstrate it has a majority in Parliament. Already, rumors of a key coalition partner having second thoughts have circulated.

The country has been lurching from one bailout from the International Monetary Fund to the next, and will need to negotiate a new IMF loan by April, which could involve conceding to painful economic measures. The country’s dire economic situation played a part in the vote. Many voters blame ties between the army, veteran politicians and industrialists for their woes, with a small elite benefiting while many struggle to escape poverty.

Political experts say Pakistani authorities underestimated the public’s anger over the visible hobbling of Khan’s party. Ahead of the vote, many had forecast a low turnout, assuming his supporters would be too demoralized to vote by a crackdown under way since May, when Khan was arrested. The week before polling, Khan, who was already barred from running, was convicted in three cases, with a 14-year sentence the most severe of the punishments handed down.

“People don’t even want to spit on them, we know how they got their votes,” Shehraz Hyat, a Khan party activist in Islamabad, said of the declared winner from Sharif’s party for that seat.

Sharif’s party says that it will defend its seats against vote-rigging allegations in the courts.

The country’s demographics also favored Khan. Pakistan is becoming more urban and younger—including 20 million new voters in this election—and more educated. These people are seeking to cast off traditional voting allegiances, like tribe affiliations. Khan’s rhetoric, which includes a moderate version of Islam, nationalism and anti-Americanism, plays well with these voters, said Bilal Gilani, executive director of Gallup Pakistan, a local pollster.

“These people are seeking an identity and Imran Khan provides that,” Gilani said.

The party also used technology well in an election where offline campaigning was often impossible for it. Political activists gathered at secret video meetings and sent voters messages that used artificial intelligence to simulate Khan’s voice. When authorities shut off mobile-phone signals on election day, homes opened up their Wi-Fi, and Khan supporters could be seen congregating on the street outside to check which polling station they needed to go to.

Yet Khan also counted on more traditional backing, such as his support among the country’s second-biggest ethnic group, Pashtuns. Khan is of Pashtun origin. His party swept the Pashtun-dominated northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. That gives the party a refuge where it can more safely operate and meet, activists say. Khan’s choice to run that province now is an aggressive stalwart.

The military has always tried to project itself as the source of stability for Pakistan. But at the end of the month one of the country’s shakiest governments ever is likely to take power. Already, the new coalition looks at risk of being under constant fire, with Khan’s people forming a large, noisy opposition bloc while simultaneously trying to overturn the election results in the courts.
Imran Khan’s Party to Protest Pakistan Election, Names PM Choice (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [2/15/2024 11:08 PM, Ismail Dilawar and Kamran Haider, 5543K, Negative]
Imran Khan’s party named a prime minister candidate as it seeks to form a coalition government after Pakistan’s inconclusive election, while also pledging to hold protests against alleged vote-rigging in last week’s polls.

The jailed former premier’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, chose Omar Ayub Khan, the grandson of the military dictator who was Pakistan’s second president, as its nominee to lead the country, according to Gohar Ali Khan, the party’s interim chairman. It called nationwide protests for Saturday, Khan also said.

The moves are an attempt to fight back by PTI after a rival party said it would form a coalition government with the backing of other groups — and, analysts say, the powerful military — even though Imran Khan loyalists, running as independents, won the most seats in the Feb. 8 polls.

Supporters must “fight until you win,” Ali Khan said at a press conference outside the jail where Imran Khan is being held in the garrison town of Rawalpindi in northern Pakistan.

The developments add to the deepening political crisis in the South Asian country after the election, which saw a strong showing by Khan’s loyalists even after they had been barred from using the party’s name or its election symbol, a cricket bat. Pakistan’s benchmark stock index fell 1.9% on Thursday, declining for the fourth time in five days.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, led by Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shehbaz, is ahead in the race to form a government. Other groups, including Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party, have said they will support its pick for prime minister — the former premier Shehbaz.

Khan’s party will join forces with a smaller group called Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen Pakistan to become eligible for some of the seats reserved for women and religious minorities in the lower house. It has also filed lawsuits suits to force recounts for seats that its loyalists lost, alleging vote-rigging.

Omar Ayub Khan, the PTI nominee for prime minister, said his first priority would be to release Imran Khan and other party leaders from jail.

“PTI will contest and inshallah win the PM election in the National Assembly,” he said in a post on X, referring to the country’s lower house. “We will not allow our mandate to be stolen.”

The date for the parliamentary vote to elect the new prime minister hasn’t been announced. Whoever takes the role will face several challenges. Inflation is running at 28%, the fastest pace in Asia, and the latest International Monetary Fund bailout program is set to expire in April, suggesting the next leader will have to negotiate a new deal.

PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan said the protests will be peaceful and invited other smaller parties to join if they believed the “mandate was changed and rigging took place.”

Protests have been small since the election results amid a heavy police presence.

Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister in a no-confidence vote in April 2022. When Khan called for protests, hundreds of thousands of his supporters took to the streets, staging sit-ins and blocking highways.

The protests turned violent in May when Khan was arrested in the grounds of the Islamabad high court. Supporters spilled onto the streets and vandalized government and military buildings.

That led to a crackdown, with alleged participants facing trials in military court, senior leaders leaving Khan’s party and the ex-cricket star himself facing even more court cases.

The army has ruled Pakistan directly or behind the scenes for most the country’s modern history but said recently it will no longer be involved in politics. Khan has said the generals conspired with other political parties to oust him from power in April 2022 and was responsible for the crackdown against him and his group, allegations the military have repeatedly denied.
Ex-Pakistan premier Imran Khan nominates Omar Ayub as PM candidate: aide (Reuters)
Reuters [2/15/2024 7:35 AM, Gibran Peshimam and Asif Shahzad, 11975K, Neutral]
A key aide of former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan said on Thursday that the jailed leader had nominated Omar Ayub Khan as a candidate in a parliamentary vote to elect a new premier following last week’s national elections.

The party also announced countrywide protests against what it called widespread rigging against it in the polls. The election commission has denied such accusations and said legal forums would address any specific concerns.

The polls did not return a clear majority for anyone, but independent candidates backed by Khan won 92 out of 264 seats making them the largest group. Khan ruled out alliances with the three largest parties, which means his candidate currently lacks the numbers to form government.

"Omar Ayub will be our candidate for the prime minister election, he has been nominated by Imran Khan" Asad Qaiser, a senior leader of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party told journalists after meeting the former premier in prison.

Qaiser said PTI would reach out to other parties to discuss supporting Ayub’s candidature. Khan’s opponents have already announced an alliance to form a minority government.

Khan’s supporters ran as independents because they were barred by the election commission on technical grounds from contesting the polls under his party’s electoral symbol.

Despite the ban and Khan’s imprisonment for convictions on charges ranging from leaking state secrets to corruption, millions of the former cricketer’s supporters came out to vote for him, even though he cannot be part of any government while he remains in prison.

Ayub is currently in hiding, and is wanted in various investigations by law enforcement, including charges of being a part of rioting that followed Imran Khan’s arrest.

He contested and won a seat in the election despite his absence from the campaign. He had previously been a member of the party of Khan’s main rival Nawaz Sharif as well as the ruling party of former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf.

Ayub is the grandson of Pakistan’s first military dictator Ayub Khan who ruled Pakistan from 1958 to 1969.

COUNTRYWIDE PROTESTS

Khan and his party say that the election results were rigged against their candidates, who should have won even more seats. They have challenged a number of results before the election commission.

The party also called on its supporters to take part in nationwide protests against the alleged rigging on Saturday. PTI’s interim chief, Gohar Ali Khan, said he was inviting other parties that also believed the polls were unfair to join the protest.

PTI supporters have already been protesting in various parts of the country, including the northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern Balochistan, where a number of roads and highways were blocked by protesters.

Questions have been raised about the fairness of last week’s election, both inside Pakistan as well as major foreign capitals.
Pioneering Human Rights Lawyer Hina Jilani Warns of Pakistan’s Unstable Future (Time)
Time [2/15/2024 1:33 PM, Astha Rajvanshi, 1386K, Neutral]
Hina Jilani, a leading human rights lawyer and pro-democracy activist from Pakistan, acutely recognizes the power of the military in deciding the fate of her country’s elections. “The military has the unique tendency of not doing the right thing by interfering in politics,” she tells TIME.

In the recent elections held on Feb. 8, the military did so by throwing former Prime Minister Imran Khan in prison and barring his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), from campaigning. It also suspended the internet across the country and attempted to keep Khan’s supporters away from the ballot box. But in a stunning—and controversial—election result, PTI ended up winning just over a third of the 265 seats. There was a political limbo. To end it, PTI’s rival parties, the military-backed Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), agreed to form a coalition; now, Sharif plans to nominate his brother Shehbaz Sharif to be prime minister.

Observers say PTI’s success, which defied all odds, has sent a strong message from an angry Pakistani public: they are tired of the military brazenly orchestrating the vote. But Jilani, who has championed democracy for nearly four decades, remains cautious.

“Things are still very fluid post-election, and that in itself shows how this period is not going to be a very stable one,” she says.

As a co-founder of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HCRP), the country’s leading independent human rights organization and trusted elections watchdog, she says an election marred by irregularities can usually signal what’s to come. “Because it was a very close election and nobody got a majority, the stage we are at today does not favor any hope or stability for Pakistan,” she laments.

Today, the 70-year-old is recognized the world over for her pro-democracy and human rights advocacy. In 2000, she was appointed the United Nations’ first special representative of the Secretary-General on human rights defenders, where she led a 2006 inquiry on Darfur. Three years later, she was appointed to the UN’s fact-finding mission on the Gaza conflict, followed by co-chairing the World Health Organization’s high-level working group on the health and human rights of women and children. In 2001, she was awarded the Millennium Peace Prize for Women, and in 2013, she joined The Elders, a group of independent leaders founded by Nelson Mandela to amplify “the voice of the voiceless.” Today, she also serves as co-chair of the International Task Force on Justice.

As a teenager in her birth city of Lahore, Jilani often saw her father thrown behind bars because of his “aversion to working under a military government,” she says, which at the time was led by former president Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. “We experienced what it was like to have no democratic or fundamental rights in a country under the dictatorship of the military,” she says, “and I began to understand what sacrifices are demanded of you in Pakistan’s politics and as a democratic rights activist.”

Under Zia-al-Huq, Jilani also noticed that more and more women were being imprisoned because of “so-called Islamic laws that were very much against the rights of women and non-Muslim minorities,” she says. This realization spurred her and her sister Asma Jahangir, another celebrated human rights lawyer, to start a platform called the Women’s Action Forum. “While we accepted there are realities in this country, both social and political, we convinced ourselves and others that we were in the business of changing them,” she says.

It was dangerous territory to veer into, Jilani acknowledges, especially when reflecting on a case that defined her career—and perhaps her life. In April 1999, a 28-year-old woman named Samia Sarwar traveled to Lahore to meet Jilani to seek legal advice on how to divorce her abusive husband. Sarwar’s husband had pushed her down the stairs while she was pregnant, and she was convinced that her life was in danger at her own parents’ home in Peshawar. She took refuge at Dastak, a women’s shelter established by Jilani as part of the country’s first all-women law firm and legal aid center. But a few days later, Sarwar’s mother arrived at Jilani’s office with an assassin who, in a moment that shocked the nation, shot Sarwar in the head. He also aimed at—but narrowly missed—Jilani.

No one was arrested or punished for Sarwar’s murder, but the case led to heightened scrutiny around the issue of “honor killings” for the first time in Pakistan. “Women were protesting and appeared before the Senate, insisting that the law needs to change,” says Jilani. Before long, not only was legislation put into place to try and deter such crimes, but there was also a public recognition that honor killings cannot be justified by religion or culture. Though the practice continues even today due to a lack of legal enforcement—2022 alone saw 384 honor killings reported, according to the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan—”at least we have legal tools that we can use to stand up and fight for justice,” she says.

Since then, Jilani has survived many threats “both open and covert.” But she insists, “I’ve never really been afraid of anything, not because I have courage, but because I have no other option.”

In 1987, Jilani and her sister also co-founded the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HCRP), the country’s leading independent human rights organization. “A group of lawyers, including myself, felt that we needed a human rights organization in this country that was independent and able to speak truth to power in a country where there was interference in the democratic process in particular,” she says.

Today, HRCP plays several roles, including monitoring rights violations, seeking redress through public campaigns, lobbying, and intervention in courts. It organizes seminars, workshops, and fact-finding missions. It also publishes its flagship annual report, State of Human Rights, widely considered the most comprehensive document available in the country.

In the lead-up to this year’s elections, HRCP began issuing warnings over electoral fairness, pointing to pre-poll vote rigging and blatant electoral manipulation. “At this point, there is little evidence to show that the upcoming elections will be free, fair, or credible,” said HRCP co-chair Munizae Jahangir during a January press conference in Islamabad.

A lot of what HRCP observed on the ground had already occurred in 2018 when pre-election engineering and military intelligence saw Khan coming into power in the first place. “There were well-documented incidents of candidates being forced to leave their party to join Imran Khan’s party,” Jilani says. “And when the military and Khan fell out and started exposing each other, it led to a lot of suspicion about the contiguity of the 2018 election results.”

Still, this year’s results have managed to surprise everyone, including Jilani. “It’s strange for me to say this, but I don’t think the Pakistani public has ever played a strong role in enforcing democracy in this country,” she says. “Yes, there have been very brave, courageous people who have waged some kind of opposition or resistance, but we have not seen a public uprising against the military takeover of political space in this country.”

It’s for this reason that PTI’s surprise win has also been so exceptional, Jilani says: “Despite the constraints imposed and attempts made by the military establishment to deter or discourage the voters from voting, there was still a huge number of people who did come out and vote.”

What PTI-affiliated independents do next also matters greatly. “They may choose to join a different party,” Jilani speculates. “On the other hand, the PTI has lost the status of a party, so they will have to find legal ways under the Constitution to declare themselves as a single party and form a government.”

And then there’s the matter of Khan, who will remain an important political figure even after the government is formed, given that so many candidates are contesting in his name. “His party, the PTI, still exists. Now, it will have to do a lot of things in the right way,” she says, referring to the slew of corruption allegations that PTI officials are currently facing in court.

Pakistan also needs to form a government that can grapple with its looming economic crisis. The country’s annual inflation hit 28% last month, while its debt burden has risen rapidly, relieved only marginally by a $3 billion bailout from the IMF. “Pakistan’s voters may not always have the political will or know-how, but they do care about the cost of living. Maybe these conditions will compel these people to move towards some kind of stability,” Jilani says.

Above all, she believes that good governance can only occur with a responsible opposition. “We need to see mutual respect between the government and the opposition. If elected officials act like goons in Parliament by going after each other’s reputation with abuse and slurs, as we have seen in the past, then that is not going to happen,” she warns.
India
India’s Supreme Court Strikes Down a Fund-Raising Edge for Modi (New York Times)
New York Times [2/15/2024 4:14 PM, Sameer Yasir, 831K, Neutral]
India’s Supreme Court on Thursday struck down a contentious fund-raising mechanism that allowed individuals and corporations to make anonymous political donations, a system that was widely seen as an advantage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s governing party.

Though the judgment came just months before the country’s next general election, probably too late to affect its outcome, activists said it could bring more accountability to campaign finance down the road.

The ruling on “electoral bonds,” as the fund-raising instruments are known, came a full six years after Mr. Modi’s government introduced them. According to political analysts, his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party raised immense sums of money during that period — both from electoral bonds and other means — money it has used to trounce its rivals in elections and drown out opposition voices more generally.

Under the contested fund-raising system, the government-owned State Bank of India, India’s largest commercial bank, issued paper bonds that could be purchased in exchange for donations to a political party of the donor’s choice. They range from just $12 to more than $120,000, with no limit on the number of bonds that a donor could buy.

Though the purchases were anonymous in the sense of not being publicly reported, every buyer’s identity was known to the State Bank of India, which is run by the federal government.

“This decision was undertaken for a laudable objective to bring in transparency in the electoral system. We respect the court order,” Ravi Shankar Prasad, a leader from the ruling party, said about the Supreme Court ruling. “We will give a proper response after studying the whole judgment.”

In its 232-page ruling, the judges wrote that they wondered how elected representatives could be held accountable to the electorate if “companies, which bring with them huge finances and engage in quid pro quo arrangements with parties, are permitted to contribute unlimited amounts.”

The Supreme Court, in other words, did not take seriously the notion that corporate donors were giving money to politicians purely out of a sense of civic duty. “The reason for political contributions by companies is as open as daylight,” its judges wrote. Yet “the integrity of the election process is pivotal for sustaining the democratic form of government.”

During court hearings, Prashant Bhushan, one of the lawyers who brought the case against the government, told justices that about 99 percent of issued bonds ended up with the governing party and its allies.

In its Thursday ruling, the five-judge bench declared the entire system unconstitutional, and directed the State Bank of India to cease issuing any more bonds. It also ordered that all funding received by political parties since April 2019 via the bonds be reported to the country’s federal election commission.

For decades, some Indians have clamored for transparency in campaign financing, as their elections have become more costly. By some estimates, Indian elections now cost even more than competitive elections in the United States.

The police often seize hoards of cash, liquor and other inducements from candidates and parties, that are meant to be distributed among voters before elections. Political observers say that politicians who deploy the most money to win elections tend to become corrupt the fastest, as they seek the earliest opportunity to finance their future campaigns.

In 2017, when Mr. Modi’s government introduced the electoral bonds system, his finance minister argued that it was needed to bring transparency into campaign funding. Opposition politicians and other critics noted that the nature of the system seemed better designed to benefit politicians already in power.

In a recent report, the Association for Democratic Reforms or A.D.R., a nonprofit working to clean up India’s elections, said that individuals and companies had purchased about $2 billion worth of electoral bonds as of last November, and that Mr. Modi’s party alone had received about 90 percent of the corporate portion of these donations in the previous financial year.

Jagdeep S. Chhokar, a member of the A.D.R. and one of the petitioners before the Supreme Court, said the judgment would prevent further damage of the kind done to the electoral system over the past few years and should help level the political playing field in the future.

“The scheme had the potential to give additional advantage to any ruling party that was in power. And it has the potential to choke funding to all opposition political parties,” by giving the government the power to surreptitiously monitor its rivals’ fund-raising efforts. “That mischief has been removed,” Mr. Chhokar said.
India’s top court bans anonymous election donations in blow to ruling party (Washington Post)
Washington Post [2/15/2024 7:53 AM, Karishma Mehrotra, 6902K, Neutral]
In what could be a serious blow to India’s richest and most dominant political party, the Supreme Court struck down a type of anonymous political donations on Thursday, just ahead of a national election this summer.

The country’s elections have become the most expensive in the world, even surpassing America’s notoriously pricey contests in some cases, at an estimated cost of up to $7.2 billion in 2019. The decision brings opaque campaign financing, an issue bedeviling democracies worldwide, to the forefront of India’s buzzing political chatter, as praise of the judgment was heard from nearly all national parties other than India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

“Funding in elections has been the root cause, the mother of all corruption in the country,” said Shahabuddin Yaqoob Quraishi, a former head of India’s Election Commission. “The impact of the landmark judgment will be instant, no doubt.”

The political financing for the BJP, which looks headed for a third term of dominance in Parliament in the national elections, has ballooned in recent years. The party earned $230 million and spent $103 million in the fiscal year ending in 2022, according to the Association for Democratic Reforms, a nonprofit working on electoral reforms and one of the petitioners in the case.

The biggest cash flow came from a political finance tool developed in 2018 that allowed corporations and individuals to donate anonymously through the country’s state-owned bank. Earlier, political parties had to reveal the origins of donations above roughly $200. The government also did away with a cap on corporate donations and requirements for firms to disclose their donations on financial statements.

The government argued that these “electoral bonds” got rid of illegitimate cash and used India’s right-to-privacy legislation to argue that the program shielded donors’ political preferences.

The Association for Democratic Reforms found that nearly 85 percent of all donations in the fiscal year ending in 2023 went to the ruling BJP, as did almost 90 percent of corporate donations.

These donations are crucial in a country where handouts of cash or mobile phones or even alcohol are used to lure voters.

The petitioners, one of which was India’s Communist Party, argued that these anonymous bonds furthered corruption, especially because the government, through the state bank, was alone in being able to know the identities of those behind the anonymous donations.

The scheme added “a layer of mischief” on top of a highly imperfect electoral process, said Jagdeep Chhokar, one of the founding members of the Association of Democratic Reforms.

The judgment will not only disallow any new electoral bonds and those not yet cashed in, but will also require the Election Commission to retroactively disclose the identities of all donors since 2019 — likely to create “some ripples,” Chhokar said.

The judgment stated that the nexus of money and politics allows economic inequality to further political inequality and that the program violates the right to information in the country.

While some have said the judgment came too late, allowing parties like the BJP to guzzle up extraordinary amounts of money already, Chhokar said the new information will become of prime political importance in the run-up to the election.

The Indian Supreme Court has been the target of severe criticism for delaying critical judgments and allegedly ruling more consistently in the government’s favor. The court refused to stay the program in 2019.

“This judgment will revive the faith of the people in democracy, the rule of law, and the Supreme Court,” Chhokar said, but the country’s “black money” won’t be “disturbed at all.”

“What gets declared is only a fraction of the total money that parties collect,” he said. “This is not a panacea to all problems in Indian elections.”
India Opposition Says It’s Targeted by Tax Agency Before Polls (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [2/16/2024 4:06 AM, Swati Gupta, 5.5M, Negative]
India’s main opposition party said its bank accounts were frozen by the government’s tax agency earlier this week before being temporarily restored Friday, ratcheting up tensions ahead of elections.

A spokesman for the Indian National Congress told reporters Friday the party’s access to its four accounts had been cut since Wednesday because of discrepancies in its tax returns. An hour after the briefing, the party said an appellate tribunal to the tax authority issued interim relief to the party, giving it access to its funds once again.

India’s Income Tax Department and the Ministry of Finance didn’t immediately respond to requests for information.

Opposition parties have accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of using the country’s federal law enforcement agencies to target them. The latest move comes just months before national elections, which is widely expected to bring Modi back to power for a third term.

“This strengthens the impression that the ruling party is trying to squeeze the opposition of resources whether in terms of leaders or in terms of finances,” said Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based political analyst.

The Congress party alleged the first of its accounts were frozen Wednesday over discrepancies in its tax returns from 2018-19, and that the tax department is asking for 2.1 billion rupees ($25.3 million) in fines.

Vivek Tankha, a lawyer who appeared on behalf of the Congress party in the income tax appellate tribunal, said later on Friday that there will be a “lien on the bank account and there is no restriction on the bank account and they can operate.” The party has four days before another hearing Wednesday on the interim application filed by Tankha.

Loss of access to legitimate funds would likely make it impossible for the party to campaign for the upcoming national vote. The party’s senior leader Rahul Gandhi is currently on a nation-wide march and traveling on foot and by bus from eastern to western India.

Numerous opposition leaders, including the chief minister of New Delhi, are currently being investigated by the federal anti-money laundering investigative agency, the Enforcement Directorate. Earlier this month, the agency arrested the chief minister of the eastern state of Jharkhand.

Friday’s moves came a day after the country’s Supreme Court outlawed a scheme introduced by the government which allowed anonymous donations to political parties. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party was the recipient of the vast majority of the funds raised under the electoral bonds scheme.
India’s Congress party says $25 million frozen by tax department (Reuters)
Reuters [2/16/2024 3:41 AM, Tanvi Mehta, Krishn Kaushik, Arpan Chaturvedi, and Nikunj Ohri, 5.2M, Negative]
India’s main opposition Congress party said on Friday its bank accounts with 2.1 billion rupees ($25.3 million) in deposits had been frozen by the income tax department in connection with a dispute, months before national elections.

The party called the action "a deep assault on India’s democracy", adding that an income tax tribunal had however allowed the party to partially operate its accounts until Feb. 21, when it would hear the case.

Congress treasurer Ajay Maken told reporters the party had filed a complaint against the tax department after it told banks to freeze funds in its accounts.

"We got information two days back that cheques being issued by us were not being honoured by banks... We don’t have money to pay electricity bills, to pay salaries to our employees," Maken said.

Maken said the 2.1 billion rupees frozen by the tax department was collected by the party through crowd-funding and membership drives, adding that the dispute with the tax department was in connection with an issue dating back to 2018-19.

The income tax department did not respond to calls and messages seeking comment.
The tax department’s action comes just weeks before dates for a general election, which has to be conducted by May, are to be announced.

Congress, once India’s most dominant party, has sunk to historic lows in parliament and in many states after Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept to power in 2014.

"Power drunk Modi Govt has frozen the accounts of the country’s largest Opposition party," Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge posted on X. "We appeal to the Judiciary to save the multi-party system in this country and protect India’s Democracy."

There was no comment from the government or Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party.

Surveys suggest Modi will easily win a rare third term in the upcoming election although Congress is also forecast to slightly improve its position.
Indian farmers strike to demand guaranteed crop prices as others attempt to march to New Delhi (AP)
AP [2/16/2024 3:15 AM, Sheikh Saaliq and Krutika Pathi, 456K, Neutral]
Farmers blocked highways and held demonstrations in many rural areas in northern India on Friday to protest over a range of grievances that have also led tens of thousands to march toward the capital in tractors and wagons.

Farmers in the northern states of Haryana and Punjab held sit-ins near toll plazas on major highways in the strike, supported by some trade unions. Authorities advised commuters to plan routes carefully to avoid blocked roads.

Tens of thousands of farmers began a protest march toward New Delhi earlier this week to demand guaranteed prices for their produce, but were stopped by the police about 200 kilometers (125 miles) away from the capital. The farmers are camping on the border between Punjab and Haryana after being blocked by concrete and metal barricades. Police detained some protesters.

Authorities have also suspended mobile internet service in some areas of Haryana, blocked social media accounts of some protest leaders and used drones to drop tear gas canisters on the protesters.

The farmers’ march comes two years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government faced similar protests that continued for more than a year. At that time, farmers camped on the capital’s outskirts to demonstrate against new agriculture laws that were later withdrawn.

At the heart of the latest protests is a demand for legislation that would guarantee minimum support prices for all farm produce.

Currently, the government protects agricultural producers against any sharp fall in farm prices by setting a minimum purchase price for certain essential crops, a system that was introduced in the 1960s to help shore up food reserves and prevent shortages. The farmers want legislation that will apply the protection to all produce.

The protesting farmers are mostly from Punjab and Haryana and are relatively better-off than farmers in other Indian states. But increasing cultivation costs and rising debts have led them to overproduce rice and wheat, crops for which they get a minimum support price, or MSP. However, those water-guzzling crops have also depleted the water table in the two states and forced farmers to look for other alternatives. Farmers say a guaranteed minimum support price for other crops would stabilize their incomes.

Farmers are also pressing the government to follow through on promises to double their income, waive their loans and withdraw legal cases brought against them during the earlier 2021 protests.

Some economists say that implementation of the demands could risk food inflation. However, experts also point out that a key cause of the farmers’ frustration is the lack of implementation of policies that are already in place.

“The system of MSP is already there, but the government doesn’t follow through on what it is promising,” said Himanshu, an economist at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University who goes by his first name.

The system of guaranteed prices — which applies to 23 crops — has been in place for decades, but the government mostly pays those prices for crops like rice and wheat, he said. “For the remaining 21 crops, the government hardly buys at those prices. That’s a problem. That’s why they want a guarantee.”

Several meetings between farm leaders and government ministers have failed to end the deadlock.

Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, who met farm leaders on Thursday, said the talks were positive and the two sides will meet again Sunday.

“We believe we will all find a solution together peacefully,” Munda told reporters.

The protests come at an important time for India with elections to be held in a few months. Modi is widely expected to secure a third successive term.

In 2021, Modi’s decision to repeal the agricultural laws was seen as a move to appease farmers, an influential voting bloc, ahead of crucial state polls.
Indian farmers to postpone protest march to Delhi as talks with govt continue (Reuters)
Reuters [2/15/2024 11:08 PM, Rupam Jain, 5239K, Negative]
Indian farmers demanding higher prices for their crops will postpone a planned protest march to New Delhi until unions hold another round of talks with government ministers on Sunday.

Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, who met farmers’ representatives on Thurdsay along with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai, said the talks were "positive".

"We have decided that the next meeting to take the discussion forward will take place on Sunday at 6 pm...We believe we will all find a solution together peacefully," he told reporters following Thursday’s meeting.

Protest leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal also told reporters the farmers would hold off their march for now.

"When the meetings have started, if we move forward (towards Delhi) then how will meetings happen?" Dallewal told reporters, adding that the protest "will continue peacefully".

Thousands of farmers had embarked on the "Delhi Chalo", or "Let’s go to Delhi" march earlier this week to press the government to set a minimum price for their produce, but they were stopped by security forces about 200 kms (125 miles) away from the capital, triggering clashes.

The protests erupted a few months before India is due to hold national elections in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term. Farmers form an influential voting bloc.

The farmers remained camped on the border between Punjab and Haryana states on Friday. Security forces have used concrete and metal barricades, as well as drones carrying tear gas canisters, to stop them for advancing.

The protest comes two years after Modi’s government, following a similar protest movement, repealed some farm laws and promised to find ways to ensure support prices for all produce.
India’s Modi commits to ‘expanding’ Qatar ties (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [2/15/2024 9:23 AM, Staff, 11975K, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday committed to strengthening ties with Qatar during his first visit to the gas-rich Gulf emirate since 2016.

During a meeting with Qatar’s ruler, Modi gave a "commitment to further expanding and deepening bilateral cooperation with Qatar", a statement from India’s foreign ministry said.

The premier also thanked Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani for hosting the 800,000-strong Indian community in the tiny Gulf state.

The visit follows the release earlier this month of eight Indian ex-navy personnel arrested by Qatar and sentenced to death, according to India’s foreign ministry.

New Delhi never gave details of the eight Indian nationals or their alleged crimes, and Qatar has not made the charges public.

But Indian media reported the men -- among them former high-ranking and decorated officers, including captains who once commanded warships -- were arrested in Doha in August 2022 for spying for Israel.

In a rare public statement on the case as it was under examination in October, Qatar said it had full confidence in the independence and integrity of its judiciary.

The freeing of the former sailors has been presented as a significant diplomatic victory for Modi in the Indian press.

The announcement came of the heels of a major liquified natural gas deal between India and Qatar’s state-owned hydrocarbon giants Petronet and QatarEnergy.

Under the agreement, the Gulf state will supply energy-hungry India with 7.5 million tonnes of LNG per year for the next 20 years.

The Indian foreign ministry said during Modi’s meeting with the emir the pair discussed "economic cooperation, investments, energy partnership", as well as cultural bonds.

Political expert Michael Kugelman told AFP the visit by Modi solidified at reset in relations between India and Qatar.

"I would certainly view Modi’s visit to Doha as a reflection of a new phase of a relationship that New Delhi would like strengthen," he said.

"I think that it would not have been possible to enter that new phase until this issue of the ex-sailors had been resolved. I think that created an opening for Modi to initiate this new phase," the South Asia director for the US-based Wilson Center added.
Two dead, scores injured after police open fire in India’s Manipur state (Reuters)
Reuters [2/16/2024 12:36 AM, Tora Agarwala, 5.2M, Negative]
At least two people were killed and scores injured in India’s northeastern Manipur state after security forces opened fire at a mob in Churachandpur district late on Thursday, a police official said, as sporadic violence continued in the region.

Close to 200 people have died since fierce fighting broke out last May between members of the majority Meitei and minority Kuki communities in the state bordering Myanmar over sharing economic benefits and quotas given to the tribes. Thousands remain displaced in relief camps.

Churachandpur, home to the Kuki-Zo community, was among the first areas in the state to witness ethnic clashes when violence first erupted in May.

Thursday’s violence broke out after the district police ordered the suspension of a Kuki constable after purported images of him with armed men surfaced on social media.
About 400 people stormed the district police chief’s office at around 7.30 p.m. (1400 GMT), demanding the order be revoked.

The mob attacked the complex which houses the offices of the police chief as well as the district administration, in the heart of the town.

"They climbed the gates and scaled the walls of the complex. Several vehicles were burnt, and later at night, the official residence of the deputy commissioner was torched," a senior police official said by phone.

Security forces lobbed tear gas at first in an attempt to disperse the mob and then "resorted to shooting", the official said, requesting anonymity as the person was not authorised to speak to the media.

The official said about 25 people were injured, and were being treated in hospital.
Authorities have suspended mobile internet services in Churachandpur for the next five days.

The Indigenous Tribal Leaders’ Forum (ITLF), an apex tribal body, warned district police chief Shivanand Surve, who had issued the suspension order, to leave Churachandpur within the next 24 hours.
India can become major global hub for renewable energy, envoy says (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [2/15/2024 3:10 PM, Madoka Kitamatsu, 293K, Positive]
India can "greatly accelerate" the global transition to cleaner power if its request to join the International Energy Agency is approved, the country’s Ambassador to France Jawed Ashraf told Nikkei.

Ashraf said India can use its massive workforce and investment-friendly environment to become a key part of the supply chain for components like solar panels, batteries and wind turbines.

Although IEA membership is currently limited to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members -- a criteria India does not meet -- the energy agency needs to reach beyond its traditional members and support the Global South, the ambassador said. The agency and India said this week they will begin membership talks.

Edited excerpts from the interview follow.

Q: How did India come to apply for membership?

A: We have been working very closely on energy transition and energy security with the IEA, and we rely quite a bit on their expertise and experience. We signed our first partnership agreement in 1998. In 2017 we became an association country, in 2021, we signed a strategic partnership agreement.

India has an important role to play in the global energy balance and global energy transition. Global energy future will also have a profound impact on us. In addition, the IEA was a very strong partner during India’s presidency of the Group of 20 last year.

Taking all this into account, we decided that if India became an IEA member it would be mutually beneficial. Last October, our Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar formally wrote to the executive director of IEA, Fatih Birol, to apply for membership.

Q: How can India contribute to global climate action?

A: We can greatly accelerate the global energy transition. India is the world’s third-largest producer of electricity. Nonfossil fuel now accounts for 43% of the country’s total power generation capacity, and we are adding much more renewable than fossil fuel energy capacity.

India can also be a major hub for the supply chain of renewable energy. Its human resources and its investment-friendly environment make it an ideal manufacturing base for components such as solar panels, batteries and wind turbines. The development of small modular reactors is also underway. We have also introduced several incentives for clean energy.

The world needs more production capacity for renewable energy if global energy transition is to proceed. It is also important that they are affordable for countries that do not have the same financial resources as their developed peers.

We are also contributing to energy transition in other countries. Last year, as president of the G20, we put together very ambitious clean energy targets. Almost 100 countries have joined the International Solar Alliance as members, an alliance that India created in 2015. We are also undertaking several clean energy projects in other developing countries.

Q: Under the current IEA rules, a country applying for membership must also be a member of the OECD. What are your thoughts on this?

A: The IEA certainly needs to expand. Today, non-OECD countries are bigger consumers of energy than OECD countries. If the IEA is to play a truly global role and promote action to achieve climate targets, it should reach beyond OECD members and support countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
NSB
Bangladesh Nobel Winner Yunus Says His Firms ‘Forcefully’ Taken Over (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [2/15/2024 1:38 PM, Shafiqul Alam, 11975K, Negative]
Bangladesh Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus said Thursday that several of his firms were "forcefully" taken over, weeks after his conviction in a criminal case his supporters say was politically motivated.

Yunus, 83, is credited with lifting millions out of poverty with his pioneering microfinance bank but has earned the enmity of long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has accused him of "sucking blood" from the poor.

He told a press conference that on Monday, a group of "outsiders" had come to a building housing several of his companies, taking over offices and locking out staff.

"Some people came and took control forcefully," he said, without giving further details on those involved.

"We’re in deep trouble. It’s a big disaster," he added. "They are trying to run the companies according to their rules."

Yunus said police refused to register a criminal case regarding the apparent takeover.

"They find no problems" with the occupation, he said.

Dozens of people who claimed they were supporters of the ruling Awami League stood at the gates of the building earlier on Thursday blocking entry to staff.

"They did not allow us to enter the building," Mainul Hasan, a general manager of one of the Yunus-chaired firms, told AFP.

Some people entered the building claiming that they were the new directors of several of the firms, existing employees said.

Last month, Yunus and three colleagues from Grameen Telecom, one of the firms he founded, were sentenced to jail for six months after they were found guilty of violating labour laws.

All four deny the charges, which supporters and rights groups said were politically motivated, and have been bailed pending appeal.

Yunus is facing more than 100 other charges over labour law violations and alleged graft.

Around 160 global figures, including former US president Barack Obama and ex-UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, published a joint letter last year denouncing "continuous judicial harassment" of Yunus.

The signatories, including more than 100 of his fellow Nobel laureates, said they feared for "his safety and freedom".

Critics accuse Bangladeshi courts of rubber-stamping decisions made by Hasina’s government, which won re-election last month in a vote without genuine opposition parties.

Faruq Faisel of local rights group Ain o Salish Kendra told AFP that he and his colleagues were "really shocked" at the latest move against Yunus.

"These incidents are yet another example that the justice system is not independent in Bangladesh. Here the justice system is controlled by the powerful people," he said.

Her administration has been increasingly firm in its crackdown on political dissent, and Yunus’s popularity among the Bangladeshi public has for years earmarked him as a potential rival.
Sri Lanka’s inflation expected to hit 5% in medium term, report says (Reuters)
Reuters [2/15/2024 8:53 AM, Uditha Jayasinghe, 11975K, Neutral]
Sri Lanka’s spike in inflation is expected to be short-lived and will return to the targeted 5% in the medium term, a monetary policy report released by the central bank said on Thursday as the island nation’s economy stabilises from a crippling financial crisis.

Sri Lanka’s economy is seeing glimmers of recovery, helped by a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, after it went into freefall in 2022 due to a severe foreign exchange shortage.

At the start of 2024, Sri Lanka raised its value added tax (VAT) to 18% from 15% to meet revenue targets under the IMF programme, sparking a renewed rise in its key inflation rate, which rose to 6.4% at the end of last month from 4% in December.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), which committed to maintaining inflation at 5% under a new law introduced last year, said price increases from the tax hike in January were unlikely to persist due to subdued demand and the economy operating below its full capacity.

The central bank slashed interest rates by 650 basis points last year to help Sri Lanka’s economy recover from soaring inflation, currency depreciation, and low reserves.

The World Bank expects Sri Lanka’s economy to grow by 1.7% this year after contracting 3.8% in 2023.

However, reforms mandated under the IMF programme would need to be speeded up to keep the recovery on track, the report said.

"Measures taken to improve tax administration and institutional reforms in revenue-collecting agencies need to be expedited in order to sustain the growth in revenue collection in the medium term."
Central Asia
Kazakhstan hopes for new surges in grain exports to China (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [2/15/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Kazakhstan last year sent 260 percent more grain to China than it did in 2022, but the authorities still feel more can be achieved.

Speaking to the lower house of parliament on February 15, Transport Minister Marat Karabayev said that 2.1 million tons of grain were delivered to China, an increase of 1.3 million tons.

The bulk was carried by train — an important detail as Kazakhstan is eager to increase capacity on its railways. The hold-up appears to be on the Chinese side.

“A special terminal for receiving grain is being built on the Chinese side, but its construction has been going on for many years and has not been completed. If construction is completed this year, that will allow us to move our [train] carriages more quickly,” Karabayev told lawmakers.

The minister said negotiations are underway with Chinese officials to speed up the construction of this terminal.

Karabayev noted in his presentation to parliament that goods being exported from China to Kazakhstan arrive in containers, and that those same containers are loaded with grain on the way back. As a result, 630,000 tons more grain was transported in containers in 2023 as compared to the previous year, said the minister, underlining the efficiency gains of using this method.

There is another bottleneck to consider. Kazakhstan is faced with a shortage of locomotives. National railway operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, KTZh, is on something of a shopping frenzy to fix that.

Last year, it purchased 119 locomotives, and another 194 will be purchased this year. In 2025, KTZh will purchase yet another 245 locomotives, which should fully meet the country’s needs, Karabayev said.

China is a particularly desirable market for Kazakhstan’s agricultural producers. Among its habitual grain importers, only China has the technology to process spoiled grain, which is to say grain that has sprouted early due to abundant moisture. This has been a lifesaver for farmers whose harvest suffered last year due to a protracted bout of heavy rain.

What is more, the Chinese market is attractive for its sheer volume. Agricultural producers are convinced that current exports could potentially be doubled.
Kazakhstan: Methane mega-leak went on for months (BBC)
BBC [2/15/2024 7:27 PM, Marco Silva, Daniele Palumbo, and Erwan Rivault, 14192K, Neutral]
One of the worst methane leaks ever recorded took place last year at a remote well in Kazakhstan, new analysis shared with BBC Verify has shown.

It is estimated that 127,000 tonnes of the gas escaped when a blowout started a fire that raged for over six months.

Methane is much more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Buzachi Neft, the company that owns the well, denies a "substantial amount" of methane was leaked.

According to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Equivalency Calculator, the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year.

"The magnitude and the duration of the leak is frankly unusual," said Manfredi Caltagirone, head of the UN’s International Methane Emissions Observatory. "It is extremely big."

The leak began on 9 June 2023, when a blowout was reported during drilling at an exploration well in the Mangistau region, southwestern Kazakhstan, starting a fire that raged continuously until the end of the year.

It was only brought under control on 25 December 2023. Local authorities told the BBC work is currently being carried out to seal the well with cement.

Natural gas is primarily made of methane, a gas that is transparent to the human eye.

But, when sunlight passes through a cloud of methane, it creates a unique fingerprint that some satellites are able to track.

This particular methane leak was first investigated by the French geoanalytics firm Kayrros. Their analysis has now been verified by the Netherlands Institute for Space Research and the Polytechnic University of Valencia, in Spain.

Looking at the satellite data, scientists found high concentrations of methane were visible on 115 separate occasions between June and December.

Based on those readings, Tthey concluded that 127,000 tonnes of methane escaped from this single well.

This could make it the second worst man-made methane leak ever recorded.

Luis Guanter from the Polytechnic University of Valencia, who helped verify the leak, says "only the Nord Stream sabotage may have led to a stronger leak".

In September 2022, underwater blasts tore apart two pipelines carrying Russian gas to Germany - Nord Stream 1 and 2 - releasing up to 230,000 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere.

According to the International Energy Agency, methane is responsible for about 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.

While satellite readings can be affected by external factors such as cloud cover, scientists say they are "completely sure" that vast amounts of methane escaped from this individual well.

"We detected methane plumes from five different methane-sensitive satellite instruments," said Mr Guanter. "Each of these instruments measures methane in a particular way, but we obtained very consistent measurements from all of them."

In a statement, the Department of Ecology in the Mangistau region confirmed that the concentration of methane in the air exceeded legal limits on 10 separate occasions between 9 June and 21 September.

It also said that, in the hours that followed the initial blowout, methane levels in the air were 50 times higher than allowed.

But Buzachi Neft, the Kazakhstani company that owns the well, denies suggestions that vast amounts of methane were leaked.

The company says its well only contained a "negligible" amount of gas, and that any methane leaked would have burnt as it came out of the borehole.

It says it also believes only water vapour was leaked into the atmosphere, forming large white plumes that were visible from space.

"We have approached the situation responsibly," the company’s deputy director for strategic development, Daniyar Duisembayev, told the BBC.

External research commissioned by Buzachi Neft - which the BBC has not been given access to - is alleged to cast doubt on Kayrros’ findings.

According to the company, it suggests satellites could have mistaken other gases in the atmosphere - like water vapour - for methane, and that scientists did not account for methane already in the air before the blowout happened.

But the teams involved in verifying Kayrros’ initial probe into the leak deny this.

"We have tested the potential effect of water vapour or smoke, and we did not find any signal of those interacting with our measurements," said Mr Guanter from the Polytechnic University of Valencia.

He also said scientists only looked for "single methane plumes" and that their methods would not have been affected by methane already in the atmosphere before the accident.
Kazakhstan vows to cut methane emissions

An official probe into the causes of the accident - led by Atyrau’s Industrial Safety Committee - found that Buzachi Neft failed to appropriately supervise the drilling of the well.

It also blamed Zaman Energo, a subcontractor, for numerous failures in the drilling process. Zaman Energo declined to comment on this story.

In a statement, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy told the BBC tackling the leak was a "complex technical operation" and that "there is no universal solution to eliminate similar accidents".

And yet, it is not the first time major methane leaks have been detected in Central Asia.

Like neighbouring Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan has registered dozens of "super-emitter" events - a phrase used by scientists to describe incidents where large amounts of methane are released into the atmosphere.

But Mr Guanter says the event observed in the Mangistau region stands out. "It is the largest methane leak from ‘normal’ human activities that we have ever detected," he said.

Climate experts at Climate Action Tracker say that, with a projected increase in natural gas production, Kazakhstan faces risks of further methane leakages from gas pipelines.

At last year’s COP28 climate summit, Kazakhstan joined the Global Methane Pledge - a voluntary agreement by more than 150 countries to slash their methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030.
Closing The Kloop: Kyrgyzstan’s Media Crackdown Becomes Farcical As Leading Journalism Foundation Shuttered (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/15/2024 1:28 PM, Chris Rickleton, 223K, Neutral]
During the last days of the authoritarian rule of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev, the newsroom of the independent Kloop news agency was hectic.

Kloop’s young journalists were frantically covering the historic events unfolding across the Central Asian nation. Founders Rinat Tuhvatshin and Bektour Iskender were reporting from Bishkek’s Ala-Too square, which was the scene of protests and deadly clashes.

In the political thaw that followed the revolution in 2010, independent media flourished and Kloop became one of the leading media outlets in the country.

Now, Sadyr Japarov, the current president and a former Bakiev ally, appears bent on reversing those gains.

Last week, in a trial decried by activists and lawyers as farcical, a Bishkek court issued a ruling to liquidate the Kloop Media Public Foundation, the parent organization of the Kloop news agency.

Despite the ruling and other growing threats to their profession, Kloop’s reporters have vowed to continue their work.

“We will continue to talk about corruption, about reality, bad or good, so that people know what is happening in the country,” said Aidai Irgebaeva, a graduate of the Kloop foundation’s journalism school and an editor for the website.

Trial By Farce?

Kyrgyzstan’s civil society and free press have traditionally been the most vibrant in Central Asia. But that has changed under Japarov, who came to power in 2020 and has since overseen a deepening government crackdown.

RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service, known locally as Radio Azattyk, survived a shutdown attempt last year.

Last month, Kyrgyz police arrested 11 former and current reporters of the Temirov LIVE investigative group and its Ait Ait Dese project after searching their homes and offices on a charge of "calls for disobedience and mass riots" over the group’s reporting.

Also in January, the State Committee of National Security (UKMK) briefly detained for questioning the director and two editors of the independent 24.kg news agency after searching their homes and offices in a case of "propagating war" because of the outlet’s coverage of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The authorities have used various pretexts to target journalists and media outlets.

The Bishkek city prosecutor’s office said the Kloop Media Public Foundation "has damaged the authorities’ reputation through its reports critical of the government." Prosecutors said the basis for initiating the probe were inconsistencies between the organization’s media activities and its charter.

Psychologist Veronika Terekhova, an expert witness called to support the prosecution’s case, called Kloop’s coverage of current affairs a “negative informational invasion,” and informed the court last week that “in a secular state, there should be no criticism of the authorities.”

Terekhova’s statement drew reactions of disbelief on social media, even from seasoned observers of Kyrgyz trials.

So did the claim of another state expert, Zhanna Karaeva, who said media outlets reporting bad news -- as opposed to “entertainment content” -- were contributing to mental illnesses in the country.

“We used the full volume of our knowledge and experience,” said Karaeva, when pressed by Kloop’s legal team to explain the methodology she and her colleagues at the Republican Narcology Center used to reach their conclusions.

But if the trial offered plenty of punchlines, it was also an ominous confirmation of the increasing pressure on the independent media.

“In my opinion, this shows what awaits us in Kyrgyzstan in terms of freedom of speech in the next year or two,” said Irgebaeva, the Kloop editor.

Nevertheless, she said, “young media’’ like Kloop, whose website has been blocked in the country since last year, will be better placed to navigate the repressive environment than television and radio stations.

‘False Patriots’

Established in June 2007, Kloop is known for publishing reports on high-level corruption and providing training to Central Asian journalists on fact-checking and investigative techniques through the Kloop Media Public Foundation’s journalism school, whose students and graduates contribute to the site.

Kloop, Radio Azattyk, and the Center for Corruption and Organized Crime Research have collaborated on a series of investigations concerning graft in Kyrgyzstan.

The award-winning investigations focused on the systemic smuggling that has fueled political corruption in Kyrgyzstan.

One of the main targets of the investigation, an influential former customs official called Raimbek Matraimov, was subsequently placed on the U.S. Magnitsky sanctions list for his involvement in the illegal funneling of hundreds of millions of dollars abroad.

Kloop’s groundbreaking journalism would not have been possible without the relative freedoms enjoyed by Kyrgyz journalists in the decade after the 2010 revolution.

Now, those freedoms are shrinking.

Parliament is expected to pass later this year separate laws on the media and noncommercial organizations that receive foreign funding, which experts say would make it much harder for media outlets to register and secure funds.

The Committee to Protect Journalists watchdog said in a statement that the February 9 verdict to shutter the Kloop Media Public Foundation “signals Kyrgyz authorities’ intent to wipe out an investigative reporting hub that has previously set the country apart from its authoritarian neighbors” -- a reference to Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

In August, Japarov accused Kloop of writing "only negative things" in an interview with the state information agency.

Only days later, the Kloop news agency learned that the government was attempting to shut it down.

Japarov’s comments came soon after Kloop released an investigation that revealed the participation of associates of the president in the creation of a branch of an academy associated with the Spanish soccer club FC Barcelona -- a fact that Japarov confirmed but justified as a beneficial project with no costs to the state.

More recently, on February 7, Japarov gave another interview in which he denied that his administration was cracking down on free speech. He claimed that “false patriots” were using free speech to do “whatever came into their head.”

An early Russian translation of that interview also quoted the president complaining of “propaganda, aimed at developing people’s critical thinking,” adding that “this goes against the state, our mentality, and traditions.”

But after Kloop quoted the president on its Telegram channel, the interview was republished without Japarov’s comments about “critical thinking.”
Well-Known Kazakh-Based Karakalpak Activist Detained On Uzbek Request, Partner Says (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/15/2024 4:13 PM, Chris Rickleton, 223K, Negative]
A well-known Karakalpak activist has been detained by police at his home in Kazakhstan’s largest city Almaty, the activist’s partner told RFE/RL on February 15, adding that Uzbekistan had issued the warrant for his arrest.

Aqylbek Muratbai is a well-known figure in Kazakhstan’s Karakalpak diaspora and regularly provides interviews to foreign media about the situation in his native Karakalpakstan -- an autonomous region in Uzbekistan’s northwest that was the scene of unprecedented protests and a lethal state crackdown in 2022.

Muratbai, an Uzbek passport holder, has also advocated for the rights of fellow diaspora members who were detained by Kazakh police at Uzbekistan’s request in the aftermath of the violence.

His partner, Indira Beissembaeva, told RFE/RL that Muratbai was detained by plainclothes Kazakh police at around 10 p.m. local time.

"[Muratbai] just phoned me. He said that he was taken to the Department of Internal Affairs in Almaty. He said that he was detained at Uzbekistan’s request in connection to the Karakalpakstan issue," Beissembaeva said in a telephone call.

Beissembaeva said that Muratbai had been invited for questioning by Kazakh police last week but had been unable to go.

At least 21 people were killed and more than 200 injured in July 2022 during a crackdown on protesters and riots fueled by Tashkent’s plan to curtail the autonomous region’s constitutional right to secede from Uzbekistan.

The violence forced President Shavkat Mirziyoev to make a rare about-face and scrap the proposal.

Mirziyoev accused "foreign forces" of being behind the unrest but gave no further explanation before backing away from the proposed changes.

In January of last year, an Uzbek court sentenced 22 Karakalpak activists to prison terms on charges including undermining the constitutional order for taking part in the mass protests in Karakalpakstan in July 2022.

The following March, another 39 Karakalpak activists accused of taking part in the protests in the region’s capital, Nukus, were convicted, with 28 of them sentenced to prison terms of between five and 11 years. Eleven defendants were handed parole-like sentences.

The state crackdown significantly weakened the flow of information out of Karakalpakstan, but RFE/RL journalists were recently able to speak to multiple students from the region who provided details of an intensifying government campaign targeting Karakalpak youth, as authorities seek to avert further unrest.
Uzbekistan: Karakalpak activist detained in Almaty (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [2/15/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Negative]
Police in Kazakhstan late on February 15 detained an activist who has for the last two years been working to raise international awareness about the bloody crushing of a mass protest in his native Karakalpakstan, an autonomous region of western Uzbekistan.

Aqylbek Muratbai’s partner, Indira Beissembayeva, told Eurasianet that two plainclothes officers came to his home in Almaty at 10 p.m. and led him away to a police precinct.

Beissembayeva said she understands that the detention was effected at the request of the Uzbek authorities. She told Eurasianet that Muratbai informed her by phone from the police precinct that he was told that he is wanted in Uzbekistan on suspicion of issuing calls for public unrest.

The detention appears to fit into an established pattern of Uzbekistan issuing arrest warrants for foreign-based Karakalpak activists. In late 2022, the Kazakh authorities detained at least four Karakalpak activists at the behest of Tashkent. Ziuar Mirmanbetova, Raisa Khudaibergenova, Zhangeldy Zhaksymbetov and Koshkarbai Toremuratov all stood accused by Uzbek investigators of seeking to undermine the constitutional order in Uzbekistan.

All the arrests happened in the wake of the unrest that rocked the capital of Karakalpakstan, Nukus, and nearby towns and villages in the first few days of July 2022. The government responded to a spontaneous protest against planned changes to the constitution that would have seen the dilution of the province’s autonomy by deploying National Guard troops bearing deadly firearms.

According to official figures, at least 21 people, including four law enforcement officers, were killed in the turmoil.

While it was demonstrators that suffered the bulk of the fatalities, it was protest leaders and their followers that incurred the heaviest penalties.

The most prominent figure among them, Dauletmurat Tazhimuratov, a Karakalpak lawyer and activist, was sentenced to 16 years in prison on charges of sowing unrest and purportedly pursuing independence for Karakalpakstan.

Muratbai has assiduously followed and documented the trial and subsequent appeals of Tazhimuratov and many other Karakalpaks. He is notable for being one of few Karakalpak activists to communicate his bulletins and appeals in English, a fact that has extended the reach of his messages.

In an interview with Eurasianet in March 2023, Muratbai expressed the hope that his relative prominence might provide him with some degree of protection from the prospect of arrest and deportation to Uzbekistan.

The Uzbek government sought in the immediate aftermath of the Karakalpakstan bloodshed to convey the impression that it would be open to some degree of scrutiny. This was intended to be in contrast to the aggressive evasion and secrecy displayed by the late President Islam Karimov’s regime after he dispatched troops to violently put down mass protests in the city of Andijan in 2005 — a course of action that culminated in what rights groups believe to have been hundreds of deaths.

While refraining from inviting probes from outside parties — and no international partners were pressing for this especially hard — the government in late July 2022 announced an independent commission would be set up to investigate the events.

The commission was given two mandates: One was to investigate what precipitated the unrest. The other was to ensure that the legal rights of all the people detained by the police were upheld.

The 14-person commission, which includes members of parliament, rights advocates, and public figures from Karakalpakstan among its membership, has yet to produce any report, however.

No explanation has been offered for the delay. Members of the commission quizzed on this point by Eurasianet have failed to answer.

The government has been more energetic, meanwhile, in going after individuals perceived as mobilizing Karakalpaks inside the country and beyond. The quartet detained in Kazakhstan in 2022 were eventually released, but they have not been granted asylum.

Andrei Grishin, a spokesperson for the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights, told openDemocracy in November that he feared this could still leave them open to the risk of deportation.

The activists “could face torture and forged trials if sent to Uzbekistan,” Grishin told openDemocracy. “We know this from previous practice of how the Uzbek authorities have treated their opponents, and those arrested earlier for protests in Karakalpakstan.”

The situation is most bleak for those still inside Karakalpakstan.

RFE/RL reported earlier this month on how law enforcement forces in the republic have, even in the last few months, been intimidating and punishing young people suspected of sympathizing with the plight of Tazhimuratov, the imprisoned activist, or harboring potentially separatist views.

The broadcaster cited activists as saying that dozens have been arrested, fined, or expelled from universities since July 2022.

Muratbai was one of RFE/RL’s informants.
Russia Summons Uzbek Ambassador Over University Rector’s Comments (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [2/15/2024 10:55 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on February 14 that it summoned the Uzbek ambassador to Russia, Botirjon Asadov, over a recent statement by Sherzod Qudratxoja, the rector of the University of Journalism in Tashkent, who called Uzbek citizens who speak Russian but do not know Uzbek "either occupiers or idiots." The Russian ministry described Qudratxoja’s statement as "extremely offensive and absolutely unacceptable." Russian does not have an official status in Uzbekistan but the language is widely used in the country. The language issue has turned into a sensitive matter across former Soviet republics since Russia launched its ongoing invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[2/16/2024 12:02 AM, 251.1K followers, 4 retweets, 8 likes]
The Taliban regime in Afghanistan 🇦🇫 crushing the dreams of millions of Afghan girls and women. Heartbreaking story of Shazia, the mother of TWO daughters in this letter by @WFFA_AF to Special envoys ahead of the Doha meeting.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[2/15/2024 5:12 PM, 251.1K followers, 2 retweets, 12 likes]
In an exclusive interview Khalil Haqqani talks about the pre-August 15, 2021 collapse of the republic hinting at potential "seeking insurance" scenarios. However, his recent revelation also spills the beans, shedding light on previously undisclosed details where Taliban wanted Ghani to resign to avoid bloodshed. He rather chose to flee the country.

Sami Sadat
@SayedSamiSadat
[2/15/2024 3:30 PM, 75.7K followers, 56 retweets, 216 likes]
The #US #Congress under Chairman McCaul @RepMcCaul @HouseForeignGOP held one of the most important hearings of the investigation on Afghanistan with @realZalmayMK as the witness. Let me remind us on a few points that Khalilzad missed.
1) The Doha agreement was signed as a peace agreement without any involvement of Afghan government. The articles included.
2) Removal of all contractors and support systems for Afghan army some 17000 contractors working to maintain Afghan army systems left.
3) Afghan gov was forced to release 7000 Taliban prisoners as a gesture of good faith.
4) Afghan forces were ordered to halt all combat operations after the Doha deal by President Ghani under pressure from Khalilzad.
5) President Ghani was publicly asked by Biden administration to resign. Even without Americans we could have held our country and defeated the Taliban if it was not the betrayal that took away our chance to fight effectively.

Nadia Hashimi
@NadiaHashimi
[2/15/2024 11:29 AM, 3.9K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
Watching the coverage of US envoy Khalilzad try to explain to House Foreign Affairs Comm why the withdrawal from Afgh was such a disaster. It’s revolting to see members use this as a platform to sanitize one president and scapegoat another.

Nadia Hashimi
@NadiaHashimi
[2/15/2024 11:32 AM, 3.9K followers, 1 like]
Rep Mast seems to think the only people who pay for bad foreign policy decisions are members of military service. Absolutely, they are on the front lines but his intentionally myopic is evidence he has not checked in with any Afghan girls, women, or families.

Nadia Hashimi
@NadiaHashimi
[2/15/2024 11:36 AM, 3.9K followers, 2 likes]
Re: the Taliban view on girls in school, Khalilzad admits he didn’t trust the Taliban but went ahead to shake hands with them on an embarrassment of an agreement because they had promised publicly that they would be different. He is a terrible dancer.

Nadia Hashimi
@NadiaHashimi
[2/15/2024 11:49 AM, 3.9K followers, 2 likes]
When asked if he thought that the Taliban would share power in a government with Afghan women, Khalilzad replies with a series of ums and ahs and wells and ehs. Really a legendary diplomat. But also, where were these questions when the Doha agreement was drafted or executed?

Nadia Hashimi
@NadiaHashimi
[2/15/2024 12:04 PM, 3.9K followers, 3 likes]
Glad to see and hear @RepGregStanton address the embarrassment of the #afghanadjustmentact not being passed and in particular how this fails the incredible #Afghanwomen who served alongside US service members.
Pakistan
Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[2/15/2024 10:28 PM, 42.3K followers, 116 retweets, 322 likes]
Pakistan’s electoral process is an "internal sovereign affair," says its Foreign Office. Meanwhile, the Economist Intelligence Unit downgrades Pakistan to an authoritarian regime.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[2/15/2024 10:04 PM, 42.3K followers, 10 retweets, 78 likes]
Nawaz and the military were never going to last together for long; seems they both understood this. Instead of Nawaz, then, the deal is: Shehbaz 2.0 and Maryam. For voters who want Pakistan to move beyond dynastic parties, that’s exactly the problem.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[2/15/2024 12:52 PM, 42.3K followers, 15 likes]
In case you missed our discussion this morning on Pakistan’s election, you can watch the event video here: https://brookings.edu/events/pakistans

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/15/2024 1:22 PM, 209.3K followers, 2.7K retweets, 6K likes]
Maulana Fazlur Rehman led Pakistan’s previous coalition, an Army-backed gov’t embroiled in a bitter confrontation w/Imran Khan & his PTI party. Today he endorsed Khan’s position that Khan was ousted by the army, and he hosted a PTI delegation. He is ever the political chameleon
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/15/2024 6:59 AM, 95.4M followers, 17K retweets, 47K likes]
My visit to Qatar has added new vigour to the India-Qatar friendship. India looks forward to scaling up cooperation in key sectors relating to trade, investment, technology and culture. I thank the Government and people of Qatar for their hospitality.

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/16/2024 1:20 AM, 1.5M followers, 18 retweets, 168 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar addressed the Bharat Startup and MSMEs Summit in New Delhi today. @phdchamber

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/16/2024 1:00 AM, 1.5M followers, 13 retweets, 114 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar presided over the Bharat Startup and MSMEs Summit organised by PHDCCI at Dr. Ambedkar International Centre in New Delhi today. @phdchamber

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[2/15/2024 1:51 AM, 262.3K followers, 121 retweets, 326 likes]
It is now clear that behind Trudeau’s confrontation with New Delhi over a Sikh militant’s killing was the Biden administration, which shared with Ottawa the same dubious intelligence that forms the basis of its Manhattan indictment. The indictment alleged an unnamed Indian official’s involvement in a failed plot to murder another Sikh militant who has been making terrorist threats against India right under the nose of the U.S. law enforcement agencies that provide him security. The alleged murder-for-hire plot was astonishingly amateurish: an Indian operative, at the Indian official’s purported direction, tried to arrange the killing on U.S. soil, but the hitman he hired long distance from India turned out to be an undercover U.S. law enforcement officer! The clumsiness and maladroitness of the plot alleged by the Biden administration may suggest that it has a pretty low opinion of India’s capability to pull off an extraterritorial killing. Indeed, since the indictment was issued, it has carried out extraterritorial assassinations several times in breach of international law, proudly publicizing each “hit.”
NSB
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives
@MoFAmv
[2/15/2024 1:04 PM, 53.5K followers, 22 retweets, 24 likes]
The Maldives urges the UN Security Council to act with greater urgency in the face of the climate emergency Press Release | https://t.ly/IqWgF

Moosa Zameer
@MoosaZameer
[2/15/2024 8:34 PM, 12.7K followers, 21 retweets, 31 likes]
Delighted to arrive in the splendid city of Munich Germany to participate in the 60th edition of the @MunSecConf. I look forward to fruitful engagements and meeting many of my counterparts. #Maldives and other Small Island Developing States are often in the periphery on discourse around international security. I intend to bring our experiences and perspectives to the table. #MSC2024

Embassy of Nepal, Washington, D.C.
@nepalembassyusa
[2/15/2024 12:26 PM, 3.2K followers, 2 retweets, 9 likes]
On 15th February 2024, Honorable Minister for Finance Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat addressed a virtual consultative meeting focusing on Nepal Investment Summit scheduled for 28-29 April 2024.

Embassy of Nepal, Washington, D.C.
@nepalembassyusa
[2/15/2024 12:27 PM, 3.2K followers]
The Minister highlighted the Government’s legislative and procedural reform efforts in preparation for the Summit, and called on the US Government and private sector for active participation in the Summit.

Embassy of Nepal, Washington, D.C.
@nepalembassyusa
[2/15/2024 12:28 PM, 3.2K followers]
Ambassador Sridhar Khatri and Deputy Assistant Secretary at the USAID Anjali Kaur co-led the meeting which was jointly organized by the Embassy and the USAID. Other participants in the meeting from the US side included representatives from the White House, State Department,

Embassy of Nepal, Washington, D.C.
@nepalembassyusa
[2/15/2024 12:29 PM, 3.2K followers]
USAID headquarters and Nepal country office, and DFC. Representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry, Investment Board of Nepal (IBN), and the Embassy participated in the meeting from Nepali side.

Embassy of Nepal, Washington, D.C.
@nepalembassyusa
[2/15/2024 12:29 PM, 3.2K followers]
The meeting focused on the ways to encourage meaningful participation of the potential US investors. The meeting also discussed the need for expediting legislative and institutional reform measures prior to the Summit.
Central Asia
Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:05 AM, 7.2K followers, 13 retweets, 12 likes]
1/ Arrest of Uzbek national + Karakalpak activist @muratbaiman in Kazakhstan at Uzbekistan request = classic case of targeting messengers. Also a case of Transnational Repression trend well known to @l_seiitbek @AtayevaNadejda @nateschenkkan @OxusSociety @HeathershawJ et al A thread

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:05 AM, 7.2K followers, 5 likes]
2/ As per @eurasianet, @muratbaiman played invaluable role raising awareness around crackdown on Karakalpak protesters in 2022. He is also an invaluable source of CONTEXT for a tightly-controlled, poorly understood region. https://eurasianet.org/uzbekistan-karakalpak-activist-detained-in-almaty

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:06 AM, 7.2K followers, 2 retweets, 6 likes]
3/ A very recent example. Please read this very important story by my colleagues @FarangisN, @AzattyqRadiosy TO THE END. Just days after it was published, @muratbaiman was invited to Almaty City Police Department for questioning. He said he couldn’t attend. https://www.rferl.org/a/uzbekistan-karakalpakstan-protests-social-media-students/32801532.html

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:08 AM, 7.2K followers, 5 likes]
4/ Although we still need confirmation on the Uzbek charges facing @muratbaiman, it is likely that they are trying to portray him as some kind of trouble causer.So, see this tweet for his long-held position on Karakalpakstan. He is all about Human Rights:

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:08 AM, 7.2K followers, 6 likes]
5/ For excellent on the ground report from Karakalpakstan in the aftermath of the violence, read @joannalillis for @eurasianet. Since then, Karakalpak voices largely suppressed. @muratbaiman used his to try to protect others.

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:10 AM, 7.2K followers, 5 likes]
6/ Sad thought: @muratbaiman arrest symbolic of how far trying to do advocacy within the restrictive legal frameworks of Central Asian countries gets you. He engaged with Kazakh + Uzbek officials during and after the Karakalpakstan crisis, always in good faith.

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:11 AM, 7.2K followers, 5 likes]
7/ But did they engage with him in good faith? Last fall, he was invited to Uzbekistan’s consulate in Almaty and asked by an assistant to the consul to “soften the tone” of his activism. @muratbaiman understood the message as a threat. Was it?

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:12 AM, 7.2K followers, 2 retweets, 7 likes]
8/ Here’s @muratbaiman to me @RFERL last year: “The key to reforms in Uzbekistan lies in what happens in Karakalpakstan. If you have repression in one region and not another, ethnic tensions that already exist will grow quickly. It won’t be sustainable.”

Chris Rickleton
@ChrisRickleton
[2/16/2024 1:15 AM, 7.2K followers, 6 likes]
9/ Rights defender and IT specialist @muratbaiman is an Uzbek passport-holder but has lived in Kazakhstan for more than a decade. More personal background on him in this @Freedom4Eurasia report on his arrest last night. https://freedomforeurasia.org/urgent-karakalpak-activist-aqylbek-muratbai-was-arrested-in-almaty-due-to-uzbek-extradition-request/ ENDS.

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[2/16/2024 12:41 AM, 28.7K followers, 3 retweets, 8 likes]
Not yet seeing reports in mainstream Uzbek media of last night’s arrest of Karakalpak activist @muratbaiman in #Kazakhstan on #Uzbekistan arrest warrant

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[2/15/2024 10:24 PM, 28.7K followers, 1 like]
After #Turkmenistan, now #Kazakhstan making headlines over environmentally damaging methane leak https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68166298

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[2/15/2024 10:19 PM, 28.7K followers, 7 retweets, 15 likes]
Arrest of Karakalpak activist @muratbaiman in #Kazakhstan on #Uzbekistan warrant last night came amid "an intensifying government campaign targeting Karakalpak youth" in #Karakalpakstan -@ChrisRickleton reports for @RFERL https://www.rferl.org/a/uzbekistan-kazakhstan-muratbai-karakalpak-arrest/32821459.html

Furqat Sidiqov
@FurqatSidiq
[2/15/2024 8:25 PM, 1.2K followers, 1 retweet, 5 likes]
Productive meeting with @RepDonBacon, a true friend of Uzbekistan in the U.S. Congress! Discussed ways to strengthen ties between Uzbekistan and US, with a focus on developing relations with #Nebraska. Looking forward to my upcoming trip to Nebraska this spring!

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[2/15/2024 10:00 PM, 156.1K followers, 5 retweets, 16 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev toured the facilities at the "Andijan Industrial Hub" within the #Andijan district. Spanning over 105 hectares, this #industrial zone includes 12 major projects in sectors such as #machinery, #electricalengineering, and #buildingmaterials

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[2/15/2024 9:56 PM, 156.1K followers, 8 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev has arrived in the #Andijan region. The first stop in his busy visit schedule was the "Asaka Textile" #cluster enterprise, showcasing the region’s thriving textile #industry.

{End of Report}
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