SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS

epubdos : Afghanistan

Prepared for the U.S. Department of State

Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs

By TechMIS
www.TechMIS.com

Mobile User Copy

TO:	SCA & Staff
DATE:	Thursday, February 15, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan

UN Seeks Taliban’s Presence at Doha-Hosted Huddle on Afghanistan (VOA)

VOA [2/14/2024 1:09 PM, Ayaz Gul, 761K, Neutral]
The United Nations says it would like to see Taliban representatives attend a two-day international conference on Afghanistan that will take place in Qatar next week.

Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said Wednesday the Taliban would participate in the February 18 meeting, provided they are received as official representatives of Afghanistan.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will host the two-day session, with member states and regional organizations’ special envoys on Afghanistan in attendance.

Stephane Dujarric, the secretary-general’s spokesperson, said that the objective of the meeting is to discuss the international engagement approach with the Taliban since they reclaimed power.

“An important aspect of the event is the intention to provide the opportunity for the special envoys to meet collectively with Afghan stakeholders, including representatives of the de facto authorities and Afghan civil society participants, including women,” Dujarric told VOA.

The event in Doha, the capital of the tiny Gulf state, will mark the second such U.N.-organized gathering in less than a year. The Taliban were not invited to the session convened in May 2023.

Muttaqi said they “are in close contact” with relevant U.N. officials and “have shared our views on the possible participation” of their delegation. His office said he made the remarks in a meeting with Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov in Kabul.

“If there is an opportunity for high-level meaningful consultations between IEA and U.N. regarding all issues of Afghanistan, and the IEA is able to duly fulfill its responsibility as the representative of Afghanistan, then the Doha meeting would be a good opportunity,” Muttaqi was quoted as telling Zhirnov, using the official title of the Taliban administration, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

“If the IEA conditions are not taken into consideration, nonparticipation would be preferred,” said the chief Taliban diplomat.

A key agenda item for the conference is the potential appointment of a U.N. envoy who would coordinate increased international engagement with Taliban leaders in Kabul. The appointment, recommended in an independent U.N. assessment, is backed by the United States and its European allies.

China and Russia abstained from a December 2023 U.N. Security Council vote on a resolution authorizing the secretary-general to appoint a special envoy for Afghanistan.

However, the de facto Afghan authorities remain opposed to appointing a U.N. envoy to the country.

U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Tom West and Rina Amiri, the special envoy for Afghan women, girls and human rights, will attend Sunday’s meeting in Doha.

“The United States strongly supports the resolution’s call for a U.N. special envoy for Afghanistan and urges the secretary-general to appoint a special envoy as soon as possible,” State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller told reporters on Tuesday.

Miller added, “A special envoy will be well-positioned to coordinate international engagement in Afghanistan to achieve the objectives laid out in this resolution."

Washington has repeatedly clarified that it is not part of any efforts to “normalize” or recognize the Taliban government.

“If they want to be seen as legitimate rulers, they need to meet all the commitments that they said they would meet and make. And they haven’t done that,” John Kirby, the presidential national security spokesperson, told a White House news conference Monday.

The United Nations has ignored the Taliban’s calls to allow them to represent Afghanistan at the world body, and no country has formally declared its recognition of the new Kabul government.

The de facto Afghan authorities have enforced their strict interpretation of Islamic law since recapturing power in August 2021, when U.S.-led international forces withdrew from the country after 20 years of involvement in the war with then-Taliban insurgents.

The Taliban have imposed sweeping restrictions on women’s rights to work and receive an education beyond the sixth grade. They have largely ignored U.N.-led international calls to remove the curbs and run the country through an inclusive Afghan government.

The Taliban defend their governance as aligned with Afghan culture and Islamic law.

U.N. and global rights groups have consistently accused the Taliban of committing human rights violations through their discriminatory policies, with some decrying them as “gender apartheid.”

Washington and the U.N. have imposed sanctions on the de facto rulers, citing concerns related to terrorism.

US Backs UN Resolution to Appoint New Special Envoy for Afghanistan (BNN)

BNN [2/14/2024 1:43 PM, Saboor Bayat, Neutral]
In a decisive move that underscores its commitment to Afghanistan’s stability, the US has voiced firm support for the UN Security Council’s resolution to appoint a new United Nations Special Representative for the war-torn nation. This announcement, made by the US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, is a significant step towards coordinating international interactions regarding Afghanistan as outlined in the UN’s resolution.

US Special Representatives to Attend Doha Meeting

In an illustration of their dedication to this cause, Thomas West and Rina Amiri, the US special representatives for Afghanistan, will participate in the upcoming Doha meeting on Afghanistan. Their presence at the table is a testament to the US’s active involvement in shaping the country’s future.

The Role of the UN Special Envoy

The appointment of a UN Special Envoy is not merely a diplomatic formality. As highlighted by Sharif Ghalib, former policy advisor at the Foreign Ministry, and Tawfiq Tamas, an international relations activist, during FARAKHABAR, a TOLOnews program, the role of the UN Special Envoy is crucial in resolving conflicts and fostering peace.

The envoy is expected to play a positive role in coordinating international interactions regarding Afghanistan. This includes mediating disputes, facilitating dialogue between conflicting parties, and advocating for the rights and needs of the Afghan people.

Challenges and Opportunities

However, the appointment process is not without its challenges. Ghalib and Tamas discussed the need for a balanced and effective approach. The new special representative must possess a deep understanding of the complex political landscape in Afghanistan, as well as the ability to navigate the intricate web of international relations.

The guests also emphasized the importance of US support for the appointment. With its influence and resources, the US can help ensure that the new special representative is well-equipped to tackle the daunting tasks ahead.

In conclusion, the US’s support for the appointment of a UN Special Envoy for Afghanistan is a promising development in the ongoing efforts to stabilize the country. As the international community comes together to address this pressing issue, the role of the UN Special Envoy becomes increasingly vital. With the right person at the helm, there is hope for a brighter future for Afghanistan.

Pakistan

How millions of young people broke Pakistan’s rules of politics (Washington Post)

Washington Post [2/14/2024 9:01 AM, Rick Noack, 6902K, Neutral]
The actions taken against former prime minister Imran Khan’s political party in recent months followed a familiar playbook for a disgraced political movement in Pakistan. Khan was jailed on charges that his supporters say were politically motivated, party offices were raided, and its election efforts were ignored by TV networks.

But the apparent campaign to dismantle Khan’s party, it now appears, may have vastly underestimated the generation that followed Khan online and not on television, and that already accounts for around half of all voters in this nuclear-armed country of 240 million.

On Thursday, millions of young voters rallied behind the party they said the establishment was most determined to keep down. Pakistan’s youth delivered the biggest election surprise in this country in half a century, with candidates backed by Khan gaining more seats than any other party in Parliament.

“The election results have shown one thing: The old playbook won’t do anymore,” said Mohammad Malick, a Pakistani political analyst. “If the army still wants to keep its influence and stay involved, it will have to adopt different tactics.”

For now, Khan’s party is unlikely to return to power anytime soon. Despite its performance being well above expectations, it fell short of an absolute majority in Parliament and has no obvious coalition partners after falling out of favor with the political system.

As expected, three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s party announced Tuesday that it is set to form a government with the backing of the Pakistan People’s Party and smaller parties, which have the tacit approval of the establishment.

Sharif will leave the prime minister’s office to his younger brother, Shehbaz, who was leading a fragile coalition government after Khan was ousted by Parliament in April 2022. Even before the new government was formed, however, some analysts are already predicting its demise.

At almost every turn over the past weeks, Khan’s party, the Movement for Justice (known as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI), found ways to defy odds that appeared stacked against it.

When authorities banned the party’s recognizable cricket bat symbol — which many illiterate voters had in the past relied on to identify the party on the ballot — Khan’s candidates used TikTok to promote their new symbols to rural voters. And despite being in jail, Khan himself surprised everyone with a victory speech in a video generated by artificial intelligence on Friday, telling his supporters: “You have laid the foundation for true freedom.”

While the PTI’s campaign struck a nerve with digital-savvy young voters by putting them at the center of their messaging, Khan’s main political rivals failed to grasp the magnitude of this election’s generational challenge, said Malick.

When Sharif, another Pakistani ex-leader who had run afoul of the military, returned from self-exile in October after appearing to have reconciled with the army, his speeches were all “about him, not about the youth,” Malick said.

Zulfi Bukhari, a PTI spokesman, said in an interview that a preliminary analysis of voter profiles suggests that the strategy of Khan’s party worked. “A whole new population — they all voted for PTI.”

Some reasons for the frustration of Pakistan’s youth could fade if circumstances change. Many are fed up with economic uncertainty and stagnation, which they blame on corruption and family dynasties like the Sharifs that have dominated Pakistani politics for decades.

But never have those sentiments been voiced so cynically and so publicly than on Pakistani social media over the past days, potentially straining the delicate balance between civilian leaders and Pakistan’s powerful military in ways that could be felt for a long time.

“They’re making fun of our country, so we’re making fun of them,” said Uzair Choudhry, a 19-year old cellphone vendor in Islamabad, who voted for the PTI.

In one potential indication for how the establishment could turn against digital spaces, mobile internet was suddenly suspended nationwide as voters began heading to vote on Thursday, and it remained cut off long after polls closed. While Khan’s supporters suspect that this was part of an effort to derail the party’s plans to mobilize voters and to document alleged electoral fraud, Pakistani authorities have justified the shutdown by citing the risk of terrorist attacks potentially powered by mobile internet.

Pakistan’s military leadership has repeatedly denied allegations of a crackdown against the PTI and has maintained that it does not get involved in Pakistani politics.

There were early signs that the internet could spell trouble for Pakistan’s establishment. When Khan was ousted by parliament in April 2022, his party supporters immediately took to social media to denounce what they viewed as a removal that had been orchestrated by Pakistan’s military and the United States.

Dozens of social media users were arrested after anti-military and anti-American posts spread online in a campaign that officials at the time said had been launched by Khan’s party.

Pakistani officials also blamed social media for having contributed to nationwide riots by Khan supporters in May, in the wake of Khan’s arrest. Pakistan’s government compared the riots to the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, by supporters of President Donald Trump.

The establishment’s concerns over the impact of social media appeared to be on the rise in the lead-up to the election. Without directly blaming the PTI, Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir condemned the creation of “an atmosphere of anxiety, despair and chaos on social media” in December, state television quoted him as saying.

But the PTI and its supporters say that rather than being a threat, the internet could make Pakistan’s political debate more informed. TikTok in particular has played a major role in mobilizing rural youth, said Jibran Ilyas, who helps to direct the PTI’s social media efforts. Through TikTok, the party was able to reach millions of illiterate voters who don’t use Facebook and other text-heavy platforms.

Asim Amin, 22, who lives in rural northwestern Pakistan, said TikTok opened his eyes about Khan in the lead-up to the election. Even though the jailed candidate could not campaign in person, Amin followed his party’s videos on health care and the economy.

“Khan is the true leader of the country,” he said.

For Malick, the political analyst, last week’s election result signals that Pakistani parties will need to work harder to win votes in the future. “This is the first election where the candidate was not seeking the voter, but actually the voter was seeking the candidate.”

Shehbaz Sharif set for Pakistan’s top job as elder brother steps aside (Reuters)

Reuters [2/14/2024 6:55 AM, Asif Shahzad and Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, 5239K, Neutral]
Shehbaz Sharif is set to begin a second term as Pakistan’s prime minister in coming days, returning to the role he had until August when parliament was dissolved ahead of last week’s elections.

Sharif, 72, was named by his party and coalition allies to head the nuclear-armed nation despite his elder brother and three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif winning a seat in the assembly and being favourite to be sworn in for a fourth term.

Nawaz Sharif’s daughter Maryam said in a post on X that her father did not want to run a minority coalition government having had clear majorities in his three previous stints as premier. Their Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party controls only 80 seats in the 264-seat parliament but has been promised support by six other parties for a majority.

The younger Sharif played a key role in keeping together a coalition of disparate parties for 16 months after parliament voted former premier and rival Imran Khan out of office in 2022, and in securing a last gasp International Monetary Fund (IMF) deal in 2023.

Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister as the PML-N buried differences with the powerful military in the face of their common rival, Khan, who was at odds with top generals over policy differences.

At the time, Nawaz Sharif was in self-imposed exile in London and disqualified from holding public office.

Before his stint as prime minister, the younger Sharif was known more as a good administrator than a politician, having served as chief minister thrice in the country’s largest province, Punjab.

But as prime minister, he quickly took on the role of peacemaker between coalition parties often at odds with one another over key policies.

Shehbaz Sharif’s biggest achievement in his short tenure was clinching a bailout from the IMF with Pakistan on the brink of a debt default. The deal was signed after Sharif personally called on IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva last June.

However, under his government, inflation touched a high of 38% with record depreciation of the rupee currency - mainly due to structural reforms necessitated by the IMF programme to stabilise the economy.

He blames the economic meltdown on Khan’s government, which he says broke an agreement with IMF just before he was ousted. Sharif said his government had to introduce a slew of reforms and scrap subsidies, causing inflation to surge.

KEY CHALLENGES

Pakistan continues to be enmeshed in the economic crisis with inflation remaining high, hovering around 30%, and economic growth slowing to around 2%.

Sharif will need to emulate his feat of securing a short-term IMF bailout with the current programme expiring next month and a new extended deal needed to keep Pakistan on a narrow path to recovery.

But his main role will be to maintain ties with the military, which has directly or indirectly dominated Pakistan since independence. Unlike his elder brother, who has had a rocky relationship with the military in all his three terms, the younger Sharif is considered more acceptable and compliant by the generals, analysts say.

For several years, the military has denied it interferes in politics. But it has in the past directly intervened to topple civilian governments three times, and no prime minister has finished a full five-year term since independence in 1947.

Privatising some lumbering state giants, including the national airline, and securing foreign investment will also be key to ease the economic crisis. The Sharifs have close ties with rulers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which could help in securing investments in several projects Pakistan has lately showcased for sale.

Although defence and key foreign policy decisions are largely influenced by the military, Sharif will have to juggle relations with the U.S. and China, both major allies. He is also faced with dealing with fraying ties with three of Pakistan’s four neighbours, India, Iran and Afghanistan.

‘WORKAHOLIC’

Sharif was born in the eastern city of Lahore in a wealthy Kashmiri-origin family that was in the steel business. He started his political career as the chief minister of Punjab in 1997 with a signature "can-do" administrative style.

His cabinet members and bureaucrats who have worked closely with him call him a workaholic.

As chief minister, the younger Sharif planned and executed a number of ambitious infrastructure mega-projects, including Pakistan’s first modern mass transport system in Lahore.

He was caught up in the national political upheaval when his brother was ousted from the premiership by a military coup in 1999 and he went into exile in Saudi Arabia.

Sharif entered the national political scene when he became the chief of the PML-N after the elder Sharif was found guilty in 2017 on charges of concealing assets related to the Panama Papers revelations.

Married twice, Shehbaz Sharif has two sons and two daughters from his first marriage but none from the second. One of the sons is in politics but the others are not in public life.

His second wife is Tehmina Durrani, the well-known author of "My Feudal Lord", an autobiography about an abusive married life with an earlier husband.

Pakistan politician gives up seat saying vote rigged in his favour (Reuters)

Reuters [2/14/2024 9:33 AM, Ariba Shahid, 5239K, Neutral]
A senior Pakistani politician who won provincial elections in the commercial hub of Karachi last week has given up his seat saying the vote was rigged in his favour.

Pakistan voted in national and provincial elections on Feb. 8 but the polls were marred by accusations of rigging to defeat independent candidates backed by jailed ex-prime minister Imran Khan.

The caretaker government and Pakistan’s election commission have rejected the allegations and said the country has laws and systems to investigate specific complaints.

Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman of the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party was declared winner of provincial seat 129 in Karachi after securing more than 26,000 votes.

But Rehman said he discovered that votes cast for Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party-backed independent candidate Saif Bari were reduced to 11,000 from 31,000 when records of votes polled at individual polling stations were tabulated.

Khan is in jail over corruption and criminal charges after he fell out with the country’s powerful military and his PTI was barred from contesting elections, forcing members to stand as independents. The military denies meddling in politics.

"Public opinion should be respected, let the winner win, let the loser lose, no one should get anything extra," Rehman told Reuters on Wednesday.

"I will not accept it, the winner should be given the victory."

Saif Bari could not be reached for comment and the PTI said it needed time to respond. The election commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Wounded Ex-Lawmaker Among Scores Of Candidates Challenging Results Of Disputed Pakistani Elections (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [2/14/2024 10:49 AM, Abubakar Siddique and Umar Daraz Wazir, 223K, Negative]
Mohsin Dawar and his supporters were protesting alleged voting irregularities in their constituency during Pakistan’s February 8 general elections when security forces opened fire on them.

Dawar, a former lawmaker who heads the secular National Democratic Movement (NDM), was among the 15 protesters shot and wounded outside a military garrison in North Waziristan, a district in northwestern Pakistan, on February 10. Three others were killed.

When the authorities released the results of the national elections, nearly three days after the legal deadline, they declared Misbah Uddin of the Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl, an Islamist party, the winner in North Waziristan.

But the NDM claims Dawar, an activist who has been a fierce critic of the authorities, won the vote and alleges Uddin came in third, according to an initial tally of the results from individual polling stations. Dawar’s party claims that local election officials tampered with the votes.

Dawar is one of the scores of candidates across Pakistan who are challenging the results of the disputed elections, which were marred by widespread allegations of vote rigging and irregularities. Some candidates have vowed to challenge the results in court and held protests outside election offices across the country.

‘Systematic’ Rigging

In a major upset, candidates backed by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in the parliamentary elections, but not enough to secure a majority. Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e Insaf (PTI) party, which was barred from the elections, claims its allies won dozens of more seats and that its mandate was stolen.

Khan’s rivals, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), said on February 13 that they had agreed to form a government.

Khan’s allies have already filed legal cases and said they will challenge the results in the Supreme Court. His supporters, meanwhile, have staged sporadic protests across the South Asian country of some 240 million people.

Many have blamed the alleged voting irregularities on Pakistan’s powerful army, which is the ultimate kingmaker in the nuclear-armed country. The military fell out with Khan and was accused of orchestrating his jailing and the crackdown on the PTI ahead of the elections.

"The election rigging, both prepoll and on the day, was systematic and targeted," said Yasser Kureshi, a political scientist at Oxford University who tracks elections across South Asia. He said most of the irregularities were aimed to ensuring that the "PTI could not capitalize on its public support to win a plurality or majority of seats in this election."

Other parties have also alleged widespread vote rigging.

"These elections were the most maligned and rigged in Pakistan’s 76-year history," said Khushal Khan Kakar, the leader of the Pakhtunkhwa National Awami Party, a secular party based in the southwestern province of Balochistan.

The Election Commission initially declared Kakar the winner in his constituency but overturned the results several days later.

Demonstrators have held strikes, sit-ins, and roadblocks across Balochistan in recent days to protest alleged rigging.

Despite the widespread allegations, caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar and the Election Commission defended the polls, which they claimed were free and fair.

‘We Will Continue To Protest’

In North Waziristan, Dawar’s supporters have continued to stage protests against the election results and the authorities’ use of force against demonstrators. "All the markets and roads here will be closed until this barbarity and injustice is addressed," said Sher Wali Khan, a protest leader.

Kakar on February 12 accused Dawar’s supporters of arriving outside the military garrison "brandishing Kalashnikov rifles," a claim rejected by the protesters.

Sayed Jamal, a local police officer in North Waziristan, appeared to contradict Kakar’s claims by saying that government forces did not sustain any injuries.

"We had no chance to protect ourselves when the security forces began shooting straight at us," Asad Dawar, a local NDM leader who was wounded, told RFE/RL’s Radio Mashaal.

The party has vowed to continue its daily protests and legally challenge the election result in court.

"We will do everything in our power to protect our rights," said Nadeem Askar, NDM’s secretary-general in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

‘Mandate thieves’: New Pakistan government takes shape amid slew of jabs (Al Jazeera)

Al Jazeera [2/14/2024 10:24 AM, Abid Hussain, 2060K, Neutral]
A six-party alliance appears poised to form Pakistan’s next government, after nearly a week of political drama following a fractured mandate delivered by the country’s voters in the February 8 elections.

Led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), which won 75 seats, and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which secured 54 seats, the coalition — announced Tuesday night — will have more than 150 members in the parliament, crossing the required 134 seats for a simple majority in the National Assembly.

However, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is currently incarcerated on multiple convictions, described the alliance as “mandate thieves” and insisted that a government formed by the grouping of parties would lack “credibility”.

The PTI, which was forced to field independent candidates after losing its electoral symbol days before the vote, emerged as a clear winner: Candidates affiliated with the party won a total of 93 seats, according to the official results.

But the party said it was deprived of a far greater mandate by widespread rigging and the manipulation of results, with its current leader Gohar Ali Khan suggesting they have evidence showing that the PTI won at least 180 seats out of 266 that were voted for.

In the absence of those numbers officially, and under instructions from party leader Khan to not talk to PMLN, PPP and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), the PTI on Tuesday also announced that it will attempt to form government in the national assembly by joining hands with the Majlis-e-Wahdat-Muslimeen (MWM). The MWM is a Shia political and religious party that won just one seat in the elections.

With the assembly session expected to start on February 29, critics of the PMLN-led alliance are raising questions about the sustainability of the incoming government, drawing parallels with the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition that ruled the country for 16 months starting April 2022.

The PDM, also led by the PMLN and PPP, had come to power after deposing then-Prime Minister Khan through a vote of no confidence — much like the PTI and its supporters are accusing the six-party coalition of colluding to keep them out of office.

Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister during the PDM tenure, has once again been nominated as the coalition’s choice for prime minister. Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the chairperson of the PPP and a foreign minister during the PDM government, had earlier ruled himself out of the race for prime minister, accepting that his party had not received the mandate for the top job.

Senior PMLN leader Ahsan Iqbal, who won his seat in the recently held elections, defended the credibility of the coalition and said that the nation had given a mandate to those parties that “saved the country from default”, which was on the verge of disaster “due to Khan’s PTI government.”

“Our coalition of parties under PDM took power when country was facing default. Our collective mandate shows that people trusted us, and this coalition has a strength of more than 150 people, and an overwhelming majority in three out of four provinces,” he told Al Jazeera.

In a news conference on Tuesday night, PPP leader and former President Asif Ali Zardari seemingly extended an olive branch to the PTI.

“It is not that we want that PTI does not enter reconciliation. It should, and every other political force should come and talk to us,” he said.

The PTI, on the other hand, has insisted that it will not engage with parties it accuses of a “stolen mandate”.

“We are not talking to any of these parties regarding a coalition or consensus on the government since we feel our mandate was stolen,” Sayed Zulfiqar Bukhari, senior PTI leader told Al Jazeera. “If we felt the polls were fair, we would have dealt with them fairly, too. But none of these political parties have won the seats they are claiming victory on, making it impossible for us to talk to them.”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a leader of the PPP claimed the PTI had been taken over by “extremist” elements unwilling to engage in constructive political talks. “We believe in the dialogue, but there was no positive response from the other side,” he told Al Jazeera.

The PMLN’s Iqbal said that, facing political and economic instability, parties must set aside differences after the election to work together. The former federal minister said that instead of pursuing “negative politics”, every party must now focus on competing with each other on governance and delivery.

“Traditional parties are seasoned. They have learned the art of competition and collaboration simultaneously. They compete for their partisan politics, but also have the ability to forge collaboration on national issues. Unlike PTI, which is always in confrontation mode,” Iqbal added.

“Government and opposition are wheels of the same cart, and on national issues, they both must talk to each other. We will again reach out to everybody in the parliament for a consensus on a charter of economy, and try to persuade them to work on such matters together,” he said.

PTI’s Bukhari, though, argued that Pakistan has already seen the performance of the PDM once and that the six-party coalition had nothing new to offer.

Bukhari, who is also an adviser to Khan, said that his party’s foremost priority is to seek “justice”‘ regarding the alleged manipulation in the elections.

He added that the party will pursue legal avenues, as well as “show proof of rigging, both nationally and internationally”.

“We are happy to sit back and wait for the courts and ECP to decide on our cases, as we firmly believe that our rightful mandate was stolen and we will go to every length to get back what is ours,” Bukhari said.

“Till then, though, we will present the toughest, most robust and constructive opposition in the country’s history.”

Pakistanis Vote for Imran Khan—and With Their Feet (Wall Street Journal – opinion)

Wall Street Journal [2/14/2024 12:22 PM, Sadanand Dhume, 810K, Neutral]
Pakistan finds itself in crisis again. Last week imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan sent shock waves through the nuclear-armed nation when independent candidates backed by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party surged to early leads for well over half of the 266 directly elected seats in Parliament.

The final results announced Sunday were conspicuously worse for PTI, and many allege that Pakistan’s army—long the country’s most powerful institution—rigged things against Mr. Khan. In several constituencies the official vote tally differs wildly from the total arrived at by adding up numbers from individual polling stations. The U.S. and European Union each called for an investigation into allegations of interference in the electoral process. Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister called the elections “free and fair.”

The Election Commission of Pakistan says PTI candidates won 93 seats, comfortably ahead of the 75 seats won by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League but still well short of a majority. Despite lacking the numbers to form a government, Mr. Khan declared victory from prison, and his supporters took to the streets and went to court to protest. Mr. Sharif’s party staked a claim to lead a coalition government.

The results leave no good options for Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother, Shehbaz, appears likely to become prime minister for the second time by cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party of former prime ministers Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto. But the new government will lack legitimacy in the eyes of many Pakistanis.

Mr. Khan’s against-all-odds victory burnishes his status as a larger-than-life figure in Pakistan. The army and its allies threw everything they had at him. They barred Mr. Khan from running for Parliament, jailed scores of PTI leaders in addition to Mr. Khan, twisted the arms of others to leave the party, and disallowed the PTI from using its well-known electoral symbol, the cricket bat. All this appears only to have strengthened Mr. Khan.

In theory, army chief Gen. Asim Munir could step down and make way for a successor more amenable to the PTI leader’s return to power. But this would be such a massive capitulation from the military that it could throw the state into chaos. As long as Mr. Munir and his top generals remain opposed to Mr. Khan, his odds of getting out of prison—where he is serving at least 14 years on charges ranging from corruption to an “un-Islamic marriage” to his third wife—remain slim. The former prime minister denies any wrongdoing.

Things wouldn’t look much sunnier even if Mr. Khan somehow clawed his way back to power. His brand of Islamic populism—railing against America and promising to turn Pakistan into a welfare state modeled on Medina in the time of the prophet Muhammad—may play well with voters, but it offers no long-term solutions to the country’s deep economic problems.

“Every macro fundamental is flashing red” in Pakistan, Princeton economist Atif Mian tweeted Sunday. Last year the economy contracted. The federal government is effectively broke. Pakistan suffers from high inflation (30% year over year in December), out of control government borrowing and widespread unemployment. In May 2021, a U.S. dollar was worth about 150 rupees. Now it’s worth 280 rupees.

Even before the current crisis, increasing numbers of Pakistanis were fleeing the country. While Pakistani migration to the U.S.—both legal and illegal—remains relatively modest, Europe has already begun to see a surge of Pakistani migrants. Last year’s sinking off the coast of Greece of a rusty fishing trawler with 750 people on board, almost half of them Pakistani, briefly spotlighted illegal Pakistani migration to the continent.

According to the International Organization for Migration, last year Pakistanis made the top 10 list of migrants to Europe for the first time since the border crisis of 2015-16. The Pakistani diaspora worldwide swelled from 5.8 million in 2015 to 6.3 million in 2020. By that year, nearly one million Pakistani nationals lived in Europe, including almost 125,000 in Italy and nearly 80,000 in Germany.

In the past, Western concerns about Pakistan focused on Islamic terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Osama bin Laden was killed in a safe house near Pakistan’s premier military academy, and the Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan famously ran a clandestine network that supplied nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. The country’s deepening dysfunction ought to add mass migration to the list of worries.

It seems unlikely that Islamabad will get its act together soon. Over more than seven decades, neither Pakistan’s overbearing military nor its feckless politicians have provided the sustained good governance needed for economic development. Unfortunately, these problems don’t look like they’ll be shrinking any time soon

Pakistan is out of friends and out of money (The Economist – opinion)

The Economist [2/14/2024 4:42 PM, Staff, 1141K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s election on February 8th featured state-of-the-art avatars and TikTok videos, but the question it poses evokes an old theme. How long can the country’s relentless decline continue before it triggers a revolution, outside intervention or—hope against hope—political renewal?

For decades the generals have ruled nuclear-armed Pakistan directly or via a stage-managed democracy featuring a recurring cast of corrupt dynastic parties (and the occasional political disrupter). Those clans agreed to back a new government on February 13th. Unfortunately, after a rigged vote, it starts off plagued by illegitimacy and a mounting financial crisis.

The army prefers this shabby outcome. It fears that, if it cedes control of politics, it will forfeit its own economic privileges, and trigger instability that leaves the country vulnerable at home and abroad. The trouble is today’s path involves an inexorable decline that may ultimately lead to the very same outcome.

The election had been a fiasco before any votes were cast. Pakistan’s most popular politician, Imran Khan, a celebrity ex-cricketer turned rabble-rouser, was imprisoned on bogus charges at the army’s behest before the poll, even though he had at one time worked with the generals. Independent candidates backed by his supporters won 35% of the contested seats all the same. That was impressive, but it was not a majority.

Instead the new, army-sponsored government will be backed by two political clans, the Sharifs and the Bhuttos (their parties are, respectively, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party, and together won 49% of contested seats). The compromise-candidate prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, promises “to save the country from political instability”.

Is that possible? One scenario is that Mr Khan’s young, often urban and now-enraged supporters rise up. After his arrest in May 2023 they stormed military buildings in Lahore. Another is that the Pakistani Taliban, a local variant of the militant movement, takes advantage of the political turmoil and stirs up violence further.

Yet even if Mr Sharif’s government can keep control of the streets, it faces financial chaos. In order to fund its trade deficit and meet debt repayments to foreigners, Pakistan needs to find $20bn-30bn of hard currency every year. It has less than $10bn of reserves, and its dollar bonds trade at 66 cents on the dollar, indicating a high chance of default. The best Pakistan can hope for is yet another short-term lifeline from the imf.

Once Pakistan could have looked to outside benefactors for cash. Its 170 nuclear warheads mean that it will never be a strategic afterthought. But America is less interested in Pakistan than it used to be, following the wind-down of the war on terror and the exit from neighbouring Afghanistan. China remains Pakistan’s “eternal friend” but even its state-capitalists have grown tired of burning money on infrastructure there. Saudi Arabia, another ally, is focused on modernising at home and strengthening ties in the Middle East and with India. In the long run a semi-failed state in Pakistan could become India’s problem, but for now the government of Narendra Modi prefers to focus on its country’s own national renewal.

Short of a revolution, only the army and the elites can alter Pakistan’s path. Military officers enjoy status, land grants and business opportunities, but also see themselves as principled guardians against chaos. In fact, they are agents of decline. Twenty years ago Pakistan’s economy was 18% the size of India’s; now that figure is only 9%. India’s stockmarket is 137 times bigger than Pakistan’s. Both India and Bangladesh have pulled far ahead in terms of GDP per person.

A lot of ruin

The need for a deeper political reset is more urgent than ever. Even the army brass should grasp that, on today’s course, they will have less money to pay for soldiers and weapons—and less money to steal. Their immediate withdrawal from politics might cause mayhem, because Pakistan’s institutions and parties have been infantilised. The change is so profound that it will require a new national consensus on creating independent institutions that can embrace clean politics and economic reform. Pakistan’s army and its civilian elites need to engineer such a process, not profit from their country’s decay.

India

Modi Opens Abu Dhabi’s First Hindu Temple, Forging Closer Ties (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [2/14/2024 7:57 AM, Dan Strumpf and Ben Bartenstein, 5543K, Positive]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the first Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday at the end of his two-day visit to the United Arab Emirates, seeking to strengthen ties with the region and project India’s influence ahead of upcoming elections.

The pink sandstone temple sits on a 27-acre plot in Abu Dhabi, making it one of the largest in the Middle East. While Islam is the official religion of the UAE, the country is home to about 3.6 million Indian workers, the world’s largest community of overseas Indians.

The guest list for the ceremony at the temple, known as the BAPS Hindu Mandir, included Indian government officials, Bollywood stars and members of the billionaire Ambani family. Senior Abu Dhabi officials were also in attendance.

This is the second major religious site to be inaugurated by Modi in recent weeks. In January, he helped to consecrate a controversial temple in northern India that was built on the site of a demolished 16th century mosque. The televised ceremony of the Ram temple in north-eastern India was widely seen as a milestone for his party’s goal of elevating Hinduism in Indian public life.

Modi used his trip to the UAE to deepen commercial and diplomatic ties between India and the Gulf nation. The two countries agreed a bilateral investment treaty, pledged to cooperate on a major Middle East-Europe trade corridor, and inked agreements to work together in other areas such as digital infrastructure.

He’s also used the trip — which will be followed by a visit to Qatar — to further cast himself as a global leader ahead of elections expected to kick off in April. Modi remains popular among his mainly Hindu voter base and his Bharatiya Janata Party is in a strong position to return to office, facing a weakened opposition alliance.

On Tuesday, Modi addressed more than 40,000 Indians in a stadium in Abu Dhabi, praising the UAE and its leader.

India’s Modi opens Hindu temple in Muslim UAE as election nears (Reuters)

Reuters [2/14/2024 11:10 AM, Alexander Cornwell, 5239K, Positive]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened a grand Hindu temple in the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, capping off a two-day visit to the Muslim nation that is home to around 3.5 million Indians.

A day earlier, tens of thousands of Indians filled a soccer stadium in the capital Abu Dhabi, cheering on Modi who is seeking a rare third term in India’s upcoming general election.

Modi’s visit to one of India’s largest trading partners showed how the Hindu nationalist has deepened New Delhi’s relations with the Middle East.

At home, critics say that since Modi took the prime minister’s office in 2014, religious polarisation has risen and that Indian Muslims, who make up 14% of the 1.42 billion population, are being marginalised.

The opening of the temple in a Muslim country has garnered widespread domestic press coverage in India and follows last month’s opening by Modi of a massive temple in India built on the site of a 16th-century mosque destroyed by a Hindu mob in 1992.

The UAE government gifted the 27 acres (11 hectares) in Abu Dhabi where the grand temple was built at a cost of about $95 million by the Hindu BAPS organisation that was founded in Modi’s home state of Gujarat more than a century ago.

Hindu temples have for decades existed in the UAE, a Gulf state whose one million citizens are a minority in a country of some 10 million residents who are the backbone of the workforce.

Accompanied by Hindu religious leaders and monks, Modi offered prayers and performed rituals as he toured the temple in an event that was attended by members of the UAE government, Bollywood actors and the Indian community.

"This temple is a symbol of the shared heritage of humanity. It is a symbol of the mutual love between the Indian and Arab people. It reflects the philosophical connection between India and the UAE," Modi said to a crowd waving UAE and Indian flags.

UAE Minister of Tolerance Sheikh Nahyan bin Mubarak Al Nahyan, addressing the inauguration ceremony, praised Modi for strengthening relations and said the temple reflected the UAE’s openness to different religions and ethnicities.

CLOSE PARTNERS

The opening of the first traditional, stone-carved Hindu temple on the Arabian Peninsula, the birthplace of Islam, is symbolic of the close ties between India and the UAE.

Modi thanked UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, whom he refers to as his brother, for granting permission to build the temple.

India’s relationship with the influential Middle East state, built on more than a century of trade links, has expanded since Modi took office.

The two countries signed a series of agreements during the visit, including a framework accord on developing a sea and rail trade corridor from India, across the Arabian Sea, to the UAE and through Middle East states, including Israel, to Europe.

"This visit is more about consolidating an already very strong legacy in the Middle East," said Harsh V Pant of Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation.

The opening of the temple showed how Modi conducts foreign policy on his own terms and has taken the message of a culturally embedded Hinduism in Indian politics overseas, he said.

Modi is widely popular among his Hindu-majority base who see the leader, who has established a strong man image at home and among world leaders, as leading a Hindu re-awakening in India.

Indian Muslims accuse Modi’s right-wing nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of imposing laws interfering with their faith. Modi denies this but the situation has led to sporadic violence between members of the two communities.

The seven emirates of the UAE are represented by the seven spires of the Abu Dhabi temple, which was built with sandstone from India’s Rajasthan and marble from Italy. Hindu deities are depicted along with ancient civilisations and other religions, including Islam, the only official religion of the Gulf state.

Pujya Brahmavihari Swami, a Hindu religious leader from the temple, told Reuters the Abu Dhabi temple was a symbol of harmony of all religions.

"This is a place where art is ageless. Culture is borderless and values are timeless. It is founded on universal spiritual values," he said ahead of its opening.

India’s Modi woos UAE and Qatar to counter China in Middle East (Nikkei Asia)

Nikkei Asia [2/14/2024 5:06 PM, Shuntaro Fukutomi and Satoshi Iwaki, 293K, Positive]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has embarked on a trip to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, seeking to increase economic cooperation and bolster ties in the Middle East as China expands its influence there.

Modi met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. This was Modi’s seventh trip to the UAE since taking office in 2014, and his third in eight months.

"I always feel that when I come here, I feel like I have come home," Modi said at the summit.

Sheikh Mohamed had visited India in January. "The UAE and India are united by our shared keenness to develop the bilateral strategic partnership to achieve further progress and build a better future for our peoples," he wrote of Tuesday’s meeting on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The leaders signed a pact to advance efforts for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an initiative unveiled at the Group of 20 summit hosted by India in September.

The proposed corridor will connect India to Europe via the Middle East, including through the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel, by rail and by sea. Led by the U.S., the initiative is meant to counter China’s Belt and Road infrastructure-building initiative.

Strong ties with the UAE are crucial for India, given the Persian Gulf country’s strategic position within IMEC. Closer cooperation with Gulf countries would also boost India’s energy security.

The push comes as China has increased involvement in the Middle East, including brokering a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. India is looking to boost its influence in the region and curb China, cementing itself as the voice of the Global South.

In addition to energy, India is cooperating more closely with Gulf states on other types of trade, investment and diplomacy as well. In February 2022, India and the UAE inked a comprehensive economic partnership agreement that eliminated tariffs on nearly 80% of goods -- the first deal of its kind signed by the UAE.

Modi’s latest trip to the UAE produced a fresh memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation on trade. Annual bilateral trade has reached $85 billion, according to India’s Commerce Ministry, making the UAE its third-largest trading partner after the U.S. and China. India is also among the biggest exporters to the UAE and buyers of Emirati oil.

During Modi’s trip to the UAE in July, the countries agreed to conduct trade in their own currencies instead of the dollar. They aimed to bolster bilateral trade by reducing settlement costs.

Modi is also visiting Qatar during his current trip to meet its leader, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani. They are expected to discuss energy and investment.

India presents opportunities for Middle Eastern countries as well. India is home to the world’s largest population, and its economy continues to grow. It sends millions of workers to the UAE, which relies on foreigners for the majority of its labor.

Indians are said to make up 3.5 million of the 10 million people living in the UAE. Many Indian companies are making inroads there.

Saudi Arabia plans to invest $100 billion in India. Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih in September expressed an interest in setting up an office for the Saudi sovereign wealth fund in Gujarat, Modi’s home state.

While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have traditionally valued ties to the U.S., they have been rebalancing their diplomacy to place more focus on countries like India, China and Russia. They are poised to join the BRICS grouping, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

India Will Begin Discussions to Join International Energy Agency (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [2/14/2024 9:00 AM, Grant Smith and Nayla Razzouk, 5543K, Positive]
India will begin talks to become a full member of the International Energy Agency, the watchdog of consuming nations, to tackle energy and climate concerns.

The process recognizes the “strategic importance” of the country, an associate member of the IEA since 2017, the Paris-based agency said Wednesday after a ministerial meeting. India is the world’s third-biggest oil importer.

“India becoming an IEA member would mark a huge, consequential change in international energy governance,” a joint statement read. “In the next three decades, India is poised to see the largest energy demand growth of any country.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said New Delhi would bring “talent, technology and innovation” to the organization, according to the statement.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said last week that the nation would be the leading driver

of oil consumption growth during the rest of this decade, expanding by 1.2 million barrels a day to reach 6.6 million barrels a day.

The economy in the world’s most populous country has been expanding at a rapid clip, stoking demand for commodities from oil to iron ore. That’s set in motion a building blitz at India’s refineries, boosting the industry at a time when it’s in decline elsewhere.

Singapore Center

In a further sign of the IEA’s shifting focus toward Asia, it also announced plans to open a center in Singapore — the first of its kind outside Paris — to serve the region.

The IEA currently has 31 full members, drawn from the Organization for Cooperation and Development, including the US, Germany and Japan. Members are required to hold oil stockpiles equivalent to 90 days of imports, to be deployed in case of emergency.

The agency said separately that global leaders attending its two-day ministerial meeting “produced a strong commitment to safeguard energy security, while speeding up clean-energy transitions to keep the goal of limiting global warning to 1.5C within reach.”

IEA confirms membership talks with India as Modi promises benefits (Nikkei Asia)

Nikkei Asia [2/14/2024 1:43 PM, Kiran Sharma, 293K, Neutral]
The International Energy Agency has announced it will begin talks with India on its request to become a full member, taking note of the "strategic importance" of the world’s most populous nation in dealing with energy and climate challenges.

The announcement was made following the IEA’s two-day ministerial meeting and 50th anniversary events in Paris, which concluded Wednesday.

The statement included remarks from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who pitched his country as a crucial contributor on energy affairs. "India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy," Modi was quoted as saying. "Sustained growth needs energy security and sustainability.

"Inclusivity boosts the credibility and capability for any institution."

The prime minister added that 1.4 billion Indians can offer talent, technology and innovation. "I am sure that the IEA will benefit when India plays a bigger role in it," he said.

The announcement came days after Nikkei reported that India and the IEA would launch membership discussions.

The IEA has 31 existing members, and the criteria for joining include belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. India is not an OECD member and prides itself on both geopolitical nonalignment and leadership of the so-called Global South emerging economies. But the push for India’s accession to the IEA comes as it is "set to play an increasingly central role in efforts to safeguard energy security, drive inclusive energy transitions, and combat climate change," the statement says.

On the advantages for India becoming a full IEA member, Siddharth Goel, senior policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, told Nikkei Asia that New Delhi "can share valuable lessons on deploying renewables at scale and perspectives on the needs of emerging economies within the IEA in conversations around climate finance and supply chains, which will hopefully promote more joined-up thinking globally, and add a strong Global South voice to the community."

Goel said the agency’s move to broaden its membership base beyond the OECD to include more emerging economies -- key actors in the energy transition -- "is a very encouraging step forward."

"This will increase the extent to which the IEA can operate as a truly global entity in the energy sector," he said.

An IEA report released during India Energy Week in the country’s western state of Goa earlier this month showed the nation is poised to become "the single largest source" of global oil demand growth from 2023 to 2030, narrowly ahead of China. India, already the world’s third-largest oil consumer and importer, was on track to post an increase in oil demand of almost 1.2 million barrels per day over the forecast period, accounting for more than one-third of global gains, the IEA said.

It was not immediately clear how India and the IEA would get around the issue of non-membership in the OECD. But India has key supporters.

Voicing happiness at the decision to start membership talks, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol was quoted in the agency’s statement as saying this was "a major milestone" for international energy governance. "The world cannot plan for its energy future without India at the table."

French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his full support for the IEA’s efforts to welcome emerging economies, including through the launch of talks with India. Also backing India’s membership are U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm and her counterparts from Australia and Italy, Chris Bowen and Gilberto Pichetto Fratin. Italy holds the presidency of the Group of Seven advanced economies this year.

The statement pointed out that the IEA membership for India was also one of the key issues discussed during a meeting between Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden when the former visited Washington in June last year.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was quoted in the IEA statement as saying the sides have been deepening their partnership in the decade since Modi assumed power. In 2017, India became an IEA "association country," allowing some participation and cooperation.

"India is pleased that IEA ministers have agreed to start discussions on India’s full membership following our request in October 2023," Jaishankar said. "We look forward to continuing to engage with IEA members on the next steps."

Why Farmers Are Marching Toward Delhi Again (New York Times)

New York Times [2/14/2024 4:14 PM, Alex Travelli and Suhasini Raj, 831K, Neutral]
Once again, India’s capital is bracing itself for a siege. Not by a foreign army but by an army of Indian farmers, streaming toward New Delhi from nearby states to protest government policies.

The farmers’ march has turned the city’s main points of entry into choke points, as the federal and local police go into overdrive: barricading highways by pouring concrete and stacking shipping containers to halt the advancing tractors.

The authorities have blocked the social media accounts of some protest leaders and even used drones that were once billed as an agricultural innovation to drop tear-gas grenades on the demonstrators.

Didn’t this happen before?

The scenes hark back to North India’s biggest protests of 2020 and 2021, when hundreds of thousands of farmers, mostly from the states of Punjab and Haryana, forced the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to abandon three bills meant to overhaul India’s agricultural economy.

If the farmers prevailed then — in a rare retreat for the powerful Mr. Modi — why are they massing again, threatening or even causing disruptions in and out of an urban area that is home to about 30 million people?

This time, the farmers’ central demand concerns something called the minimum support price, or M.S.P. They want it to be increased, adding a 50 percent premium to whatever it costs them to produce wheat and rice.

Sarwan Singh Pandher, a leader of a committee representing hundreds of smaller farmers’ unions, said that many of their demands had been left hanging after they ended their protests more than two years ago, “especially about the M.S.P. being made a legal guarantee.”

Economists tend to hate the M.S.P. and its effects on farming. It leads directly to food price inflation, for one thing.

And by divorcing farmers’ earnings from the traded value of staple cereals, the controlled prices — in combination with free electricity and subsidized fertilizer — have encouraged overproduction of rice, for instance, in areas that are naturally semiarid. That depletes water tables and brings the kind of stubble burning that helps pollute Delhi’s air every autumn.

Why do farmers want price supports?

The M.S.P. should act as a form of social insurance, by sparing the majority of India’s population, which still depends on farming incomes, from the volatility that comes with changing weather patterns and internationally set grain prices.

In practice, it is India’s better-off farmers who would stand to lose the most if the M.S.P. was eliminated; annual incomes in Punjab are higher than in the rest of the country’s grain belt.

Farmers who are inching closer to the middle class often feel the pinch of stagnating incomes most sharply. Many families in Punjab have invested in higher education as a way up. But acute unemployment makes those debts hard to pay down. In the poorer parts of the country, indebted farmers often resort to suicide.

Mr. Modi had promised to double the incomes that they had in 2015, and on that the government has fallen far short. It makes farmers’ demands more urgent, Mr. Pandher said: “Either the government should come around or grant us the right to protest peacefully in Delhi.”

How did it all end last time?

The earlier round of protests reached its peak in January 2021. After camping outside the capital, farmers who had endured pandemic hardships stormed through barricades to challenge Mr. Modi’s own Republic Day parade, a confrontation that had long-lasting political consequences.

The farmers seemed to win; the proposed laws were repealed later that year. But with Punjabi Sikhs highly visible in the movement’s leadership, the government began cracking down on Sikh separatists soon after. And apparently not just by lawful means: The government has been accused of orchestrating assassination attempts in Canada and the United States.

Apart from Sikh politics, the leadership of the farmer movement may be bargaining that now is the best time to make their demands, when election season is upon Mr. Modi and he would presumably not want to be seen fighting back poor farmers circled around Delhi.

India ministers, farmers unions to hold talks hoping to end protests (Reuters)

Reuters [2/15/2024 4:29 AM, Sunil Kataria and Anushree Fadnavis, 5.2M, Neutral]
Farmers unions in India will hold talks with government ministers on Thursday, a union leader said, after two days of protests demanding higher prices for their crops.

Police have used tear gas and barricades to stop thousands of farmers from marching to the capital New Delhi to press their demands that the government set a minimum price for all their produce to ensure they can sustain their livelihood.

Farmers form an influential voting bloc, and the protests come a few months before national elections in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking to win a third term.

Sarvan Singh Pandher, general secretary of one of the unions leading the protests, the Punjab Kisan Mazdoor Sangharsh Committee, said the farmers would hold talks with Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai.

"We are going to the meeting in a completely positive mood and with complete faith that some solution will be found," Pandher told news agency ANI, in which Reuters has a minority stake.

The meeting will be the third between the unions and the government this month. Earlier talks failed to secure a government commitment to provide support prices, which spurred the farmers to go ahead with their "Delhi Chalo", or "Let’s go to Delhi", march.

Pandher said that if these talks fail, the farmers should be allowed to protest in peace.

FARMERS TAKE A BREAK

At the border of Punjab and Haryana states, where police stopped the march some 200 km (125 miles) north of Delhi, farmers waited for the outcome of the talks, warming themselves with cups of hot tea and snacking on biscuits, as police looked on from a nearby bridge.

A group of 100 farmers have volunteered to keep the peace while the talks were underway, one of the farmers said.

"We are not planning to take any action until the talks with the government are over," said Kamaljeet Singh, who was preventing protesters from moving closer to the police.

Balbir Singh, a 42-year-old farmer from Punjab who was among the protesters, said he wanted the government to know that he was struggling to make ends meet.

"We are demanding fair crop prices, there’s no fixed price so what will the farmer do? We’ll have to sell our land," he said. "Farmers are facing a financial crisis."

The protest comes two years after Modi’s government, following similar protests, repealed some farm laws and promised to find ways to ensure support prices for all farm produce. Local television showed farmers blocking rail traffic in several parts of Punjab to protest against the police action.

India’s Top Court Bans Controversial Political Funding Tool (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [2/15/2024 1:18 AM, Shruti Mahajan and Swati Gupta, 5.5M, Neutral]
India’s Supreme Court struck down the validity of a controversial political funding tool on Thursday, a move hailed for boosting transparency, but may do little to damage the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party so close to elections.

The court directed State Bank of India to stop issuing so-called electoral bonds in a unanimous decision announced by Chief Justice D. Y. Chandrachud.

Electoral bonds allow for anonymous donations to be made to political parties, and the BJP has been the main beneficiary of the funding. An independent election watchdog, the Association for Democratic Reforms, which first brought the case to the court, argued that citizens had the right to know the source of political funding. The government said donors had a right to privacy.

Yogendra Yadav, a political activist and founding member of political party Swaraj Abhiyan, said the court’s action was welcomed, but wouldn’t damage the BJP so close to the election.

The decision was “unduly and extraordinarily delayed,” he said. “It is too late now as the ruling party may already have taken advantage of the bonds. Opposition parties were anyway not getting much donation through these bonds.”

The bonds aren’t promissory notes traded in global markets. Instead, they can be bought by any individual or company from the government-owned State Bank of India in denominations from 1,000 rupees to 10 million rupees ($120,470). The donor’s name isn’t attached to the paper, which is then delivered to a political party to exchange for cash.

Niranjan Sahoo, a senior fellow with Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, said that while the ruling was a setback for the BJP, it won’t have an impact on the elections.

“It is a moneyed party and it has deep pockets and collects its funding from multiple sources,” he said.

India’s 2019 election, which brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power for a second term, was among the world’s most expensive, costing about $7 billion, according to New Delhi’s Centre for Media Studies. A large chunk of the funding came from electoral bonds.

In the six years through 2022, the BJP earned nearly 52.7 billion rupees through this funding tool, accounting for about 57% of the 92 billion rupees raised through these bonds, according to a report by the Association for Democratic Reforms, based on data from India’s Election Commission. The share of the main opposition party, Indian National Congress, was 10%.

Trilochan Sastry, chairman of the association, said the ruling was a “great shot in the arm for Indian democracy.”

“I hope we have more transparent and cleaner elections than in the past but it is too early to say because there are only 2-3 months left,” he said.

India’s top court strikes down system for anonymous political donations ahead of national elections (AP)

AP [2/15/2024 9:59 AM, Sheikh Saaliq, 456K, Neutral]
India’s top court on Thursday struck down a controversial election funding system that allowed individuals and companies to send unlimited donations to political parties without the need to disclose donor identity, a system critics have long said is undemocratic and favored Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party.

A five-judge constitution bench on the Supreme Court ruled that “electoral bonds” are unconstitutional and violate citizens’ right to information held by the government. It ordered the government-owned State Bank of India to stop issuing these bonds and provide details of donations made through them to the Election Commission of India.

The electoral bond scheme was introduced by Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in 2017. Before that, political parties in India had to disclose the identity of any donor who gave more than 20,000 rupees (about $240). But the latest instrument of political financing allowed them to declare the amount of money they received through the bonds, but not the funders’ identity.

These bonds were sold in denominations ranging from 1,000 rupees ($12) to 10 million rupees ($120,000).

Modi’s party has said the bonds have reformed political finance by eliminating the use of cash, but critics say the system is opaque due to the anonymous nature of the donations. They also say the state-owned bank has a record of donors and recipients, which makes it easy for the government to access the information and influence donors.

The Supreme Court’s verdict comes just months ahead of a national election and is seen as a setback to Modi’s ruling party, which has been the largest beneficiary of the system.

From 2018 to 2023, anonymous donors have given more than $1.9 billion to political parties through these bonds, according to Association for Democratic Reforms, an election watchdog. It said between 2018 and March 2022 nearly 57% of these donations went to Modi’s BJP. In comparison, the opposition Congress party has only received 10%.

Only registered political parties that received a minimum of 1% of votes in a previous election for the parliament or a state assembly were eligible to receive these bonds.

Delhi’s Deadly Air Pollution Prompts Some to Quit City (VOA)

VOA [2/14/2024 9:29 AM, Anjana Pasricha, 761K, Neutral]
Prashant Kalra relocated to the western coastal city Goa five years ago because the dirty air in the Indian capital and surrounding towns was making his three-year-old daughter sick.

“Our daughter could not breathe in Delhi-NCR,” said Kalra, who lived in Gurugram, a city adjacent to New Delhi. “She needed a nebulizer every night just to go to sleep. That convinced us that we did not have a choice.”

The NCR, or the National Capital region is a vast, urban sprawl that refers to the Indian capital and its surrounding areas.

Kalra is among a small but growing number of people quitting the city to escape the health hazards of the deadly air pollution that envelops it every winter. A nearly two-decade long battle by authorities in Delhi has failed to clean up the toxic smog, which is a mix of construction dust, vehicular emissions and burning of crop residue in neighboring agrarian states.

Many of the “pollution migrants” as they are being called, are heading to Goa, a popular holiday destination with long beaches and palm trees, that has become a magnet for people fleeing Delhi’s air.

Like Kalra, many moved after their children developed health problems. For Salil Pawah and his wife, the trigger was their young daughter’s persistent cough.

“She got put on a nebulizer and an inhaler in Delhi,” said Pawah, an entrepreneur who had always lived in the Indian capital. “We came here for a short vacation for a few weeks and that cough all but vanished. That is when I realized that it is the air and we kind of decided that we have to leave Delhi.”

Delhi is regularly ranked as one of the world’s most polluted cities, with its annual smog blamed for thousands of premature deaths each year.

The average city resident could die nearly 12 years earlier than expected because of air pollution, according to a report last August by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute.

In New Delhi, doctors say every winter brings an influx of patients suffering from respiratory problems or worse – this winter was no different.

“Basically, it is asthma, bronchitis, infections that was the most common disease that we faced this time,” according to Suranjit Chatterjee, a doctor at New Delhi’s Indraprastha Apollo Hospital. “We also have a few strokes and cardiovascular diseases, which are well known to be exacerbated by the pollution.”

The deadly ingredient in Delhi’s air is small, particulate matter called PM 2.5, which gets embedded deep inside lungs. Chatterjee says children and older people bear the brunt of the smog.

On the most polluted days, authorities order schools to shut and advise people to stay indoors. The city’s air quality index often reaches hazardous levels of over 400.

Uprooting from a city that was home is not easy. And while Goa’s lush greenery and laid-back vibe are a great pull for holidaymakers, settling in the city came with challenges.

“It was difficult leaving friends behind, but luckily most of our family moved with us, my father and elder sister. Of course, socially and culturally, it was an adjustment,” said Kalra, who calls himself a “pollution refugee” on his Instagram account.

But Kalra, who was formerly a lawyer, saw opportunity in the steady stream seeking refuge from Delhi’s grey skies. He started a brokerage firm to help people find new homes in Goa and managed to sell four early on.

“That gave us the confidence to make the switch and start building our social media and working on the business and five years on we are quite happy where we are,” he said. And the family has adapted to life in Goa. “Being a little bit closer to nature, having a fish curry on the beach on Sunday, it’s good here."

The numbers heading to Goa from Delhi have accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, when work from home norms gave employees the flexibility to work from different locations.

“When I moved to Goa, I did not know anybody else. Now in a span of two years, I know probably 20 people who moved here for the same reason,” said Pawah. “COVID taught us that it’s not the city itself that is important, it is the work you do. Now you will see a lot of professionals here, lawyers, engineers, doctors.”

Moving out of Delhi is a choice available only to a few. Many of the 30 million residents in the city and adjacent districts work on the streets – as auto rickshaw drivers, street vendors and construction laborers suffering the worst exposure. Doctors say the toxic air is a serious health hazard.

“The pollution is a major health issue. Now the duration of the pollution has also lengthened and exposure long-term to high pollutants obviously affects everybody’s health,” according to Chatterjee.

Cleaning up India’s mega cities will be one of the country’s biggest challenges as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is widely expected to win a third term in office in elections early this year, sets an ambitious goal of catapulting India into the ranks of developed nations by 2047.

NSB

‘Our gods were locked in the basement.’ Now Nepal is pursuing sacred items once smuggled abroad (AP)

AP [2/14/2024 11:08 PM, Binaj Gurubacharya, 6902K, Neutral]
Nepal’s gods and goddess are returning home.

An unknown number of sacred statues of Hindu deities were stolen and smuggled abroad in the past. Now dozens are being repatriated to the Himalayan nation, part of a growing global effort to return such items to countries in Asia, Africa and elsewhere.

Last month, four idols and masks of Hindu gods were returned to Nepal from the United States by museums and a private collector.

Among them was a 16th century statue of Uma-Maheswora, an avatar of the gods Shiva and Parvati, that was stolen four decades ago. It was not clear who took it or how it ended up at the Brooklyn Museum in New York, which handed it over to the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office.

Devotees celebrated its return in Patan, south of the capital, Kathmandu. The stone-paved alleys were crowded with devotees offering money and flowers. Men in traditional attire played drums and cymbals and chanted prayers.

“I cannot say how extremely happy I am right now,” said Ram Maya Benjankar, a 52-year-old who said she had cried as a child after learning the statue had been stolen and waited years for its return.

The statue had simply disappeared from their neighborhood, she said.

The majority of Nepal’s 29 million people are Hindu, and every neighborhood has a temple that houses such items. They are rarely guarded, making it easy for thieves.

For Nepalese, the idols have religious significance but no monetary value. For smugglers, however, they can bring huge value abroad. For years, there was little attention given to the thefts or any effort made at recovery.

That has changed in recent years as the government, art lovers and campaigners pursue stolen heritage items. They have been successful in many cases.

A group representing the ethnic Newar community from Nepal in the U.S. heard about the reappearance of the Uma-Maheswora statue at the Brooklyn Museum and took the initiative to bring it home.

“We were very sad to see that our gods were locked in the basement. We were then determined that we need to take back the heritage,” said Bijaya Man Singh, a member of the group that carried the four idols and masks back to Nepal.

Now the temple in Patan is being prepared to reinstate the Uma-Maheswora statue. Following the welcome ceremony, it was placed on a chariot carried by devotees and taken to a museum, where it will be kept under security until its final move.

More than 20 other stolen artifacts are in the pipeline to be repatriated to Nepal in the near future, according to Jayaram Shrestha, director at the National Museum in Kathmandu. Most will return from the United States and Europe.

Shrestha has built a special room to exhibit repatriated items so the public can come and worship if they want. There are currently 62 statues on display.

“As we expect many to come soon, we are expanding the section of the museum,” Shrestha said. “I don’t want to store them in storage. They should be made available.”

It has become easier to locate stolen items as awareness grows among Nepalis at home and abroad. They can now track artifacts online when they are exhibited or put up for auction.

And more collectors and museums now believe they should be taken back to where they belong, Shrestha said.

“The Nepal government has been taking initiative to get them back with recovery campaigns and using diplomatic channels, embassies in foreign countries,” he said.

“We have made it clear that they need to be reinstated to their original place and security ensured to keep these thousands-of-years-old artifacts safe.”“ said Nepal’s foreign minister, Narayan Prakash Saud.

Central Asia

UN, EU Diplomats Discuss Afghanistan With Central Asian Officials Ahead Of International Conference (Radio Free Europe)

Radio Free Europe [2/14/2024 1:14 PM, Staff, 223K, Neutral]
The UN secretary-general’s envoy for Afghanistan met on February 14 in Bishkek with EU and Central Asian officials to discuss joint efforts to assist people in Taliban-led Afghanistan ahead of a more formal international meeting scheduled to take place on February 18-19 in Doha, Qatar.

UN Special Representative for Afghanistan Roza Otunbaeva held talks with two European Union officials -- Special Representative for Central Asia Teri Hakala and Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas Niklasson -- as well as officials from the five Central Asian states.

It was their fifth meeting to discuss relief efforts for Afghanistan, which has experienced a sharp drop in foreign aid since the Taliban regained power in 2021.

The Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry said in a statement that participants discussed current developments in the South Asian country and the UN-led process ahead of the Doha meeting that Taliban representatives have been invited to attend.

“An online exchange of views also took place with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime and the diplomatic missions of Central Asian countries based in Kabul,” the ministry’s statement said.

Niklasson told RFE/RL that the meeting was "rather informal," mostly to exchange opinions and analyses on the situation in Afghanistan to check "how we see development, challenges, and opportunities" there.

"This meeting came just a few days ahead of a meeting [on Afghanistan] in Doha [Qatar.] The purpose of this meeting was to compare notes and see that we have a lot in common," Niklasson said.

"We see a need to continue to engage Afghanistan, we see a need to continue to support the people of Afghanistan. At the same time, we see a number of challenges that makes it difficult to move beyond where we currently are," Niklasson added, citing security concerns, economic problems, and a poor human rights situation in Afghanistan under what he called "de facto" leadership.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will host the meeting in Doha, which is starting on February 18. Earlier this month, the Taliban confirmed that it had received an invitation to the meeting and was considering “meaningful participation” in it.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 drove millions into poverty and hunger after foreign aid stopped almost overnight. Sanctions against the Taliban rulers, a halt on bank transfers, and frozen billions in Afghanistan’s currency reserves have cut off access to global institutions and the outside money that supported the aid-dependent economy before the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces.

Human Rights Watch said in a report published on February 12 that the drop in foreign aid has heavily impacted that country’s public health-care system, exacerbating "malnutrition and illnesses resulting from inadequate medical care."

OPEC+ Oil-Cut Laggards Iraq and Kazakhstan Pledge Compliance With Targets (Bloomberg)

Bloomberg [2/14/2024 11:22 AM, Grant Smith, Nariman Gizitdinov, and Khalid Al Ansary, 5543K, Neutral]
Iraq and Kazakhstan pledged compliance with new OPEC+ oil targets after failing to fully cut production as promised last month.

The OPEC+ alliance, which is led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to slash production during the first quarter to avert a global oil surplus and shore up prices. While several countries appear to have complied, Baghdad and Astana were once again delinquent.

Kazakhstan’s energy ministry conceded it had pumped above its limits

in January and vowed to “compensate for the overproduced volumes over the next four months.” It didn’t specify the excess produced.

Its counterpart in Iraq released a slightly more nuanced statement, promising to review external estimates of its production and compensate for any excess, also over a four-month period. The nation has in the past disputed OPEC’s assessments of its output.

Iraq issued its statement following a visit to Baghdad from Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Data compiled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries indicate that Iraq pumped 4.19 million barrels a day in January, or 190,000 above its limit. But Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Monday that the country is producing no more than its quota of 4 million a day.

The excess production comes at an awkward moment for OPEC+ alliance as it seeks to balance global markets against slowing demand growth and booming supply from the Americas. Crude prices are holding near $80 a barrel, a little too low for some member governments.

“There’s a little bit of fatigue kicking in” among OPEC+ members, “particularly given a rise in production from alternative producers outside the group,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group consultancy.

Straying from their limits isn’t an unfamiliar position for either Kazakhstan or Iraq.

Baghdad has often chafed against output quotas since the creation of OPEC+ more than seven years ago, as it seeks maximum revenues to rebuild a shattered economy. Astana meanwhile has been keen to make use of production capacity additions at oilfields like Kashagan.

Kazakhstan: Misinformation over vaccinations facilitates measles outbreak (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [2/14/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Kazakhstan experienced an outbreak of measles in late 2023 that infected over 20,000 individuals. Leading public health experts in the country contend that misinformation about vaccinations likely exacerbated the outbreak.

The Astana-based PaperLab Research Center convened an expert panel recently to examine the rise in measles cases and the role played by misinformation in enabling the spread of the disease. The basis for the discussion was a study conducted by PaperLab on immunization practices in Kazakhstan, including the granting of “false,” or unjustified exemptions by medical professionals.

One of the panel’s expert speakers, Manar Smagul, an epidemiologist at the National Center for Public Health in Almaty, noted that a decade ago most individuals cited religious beliefs in seeking vaccination exemptions. Today, a vast majority of those seeking exemptions are doing so for “personal reasons,” Smagul said. Misinformation surrounding the covid pandemic and the supposed dangers of various covid vaccines is a major factor behind the general anti-vaccination trend, experts contend. In 2022, Smagul was a co-author of a study that concluded vaccines provided in Almaty to contain covid registered “high effectiveness.”

The PaperLab study on exemption practices indicated that medical professionals in Kazakhstan were exceedingly lax in granting exemptions from vaccinations. It 2020, the year the covid pandemic hit, health workers granted 200,000 temporary exemptions, along with 2,500 permanent exemptions.

“Health workers tend to overestimate the risks of vaccination, which raises the problem of avoidance [based on] unfounded (false) medical referrals, especially for young children,” according to the PaperLab study, which was published in 2022. “Experts interviewed, based on personal experience, estimated that that 20-50 percent of medical withdrawals may be unfounded.”

The large number of exemptions “highlights gaps in childhood routine vaccinations that are likely to be exacerbated by vaccine communication challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic,” PaperLab added in a statement.

Kazakhstan: Ex-Culture Minister gets more prison time for corruption (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [2/14/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Neutral]
A court in the capital of Kazakhstan has extended the prison sentence of ex-Culture Minister Arystanbek Mukhamediuly to 11 years and banned him for life from holding positions in the civil service after finding him guilty on charges of embezzlement and bribery.

The Astana court also ruled on February 13 to strip Mukhamediuly of all his state awards. Also in the dock were the ex-minister’s wife and lawyer, who received six-month and seven-year prison terms, respectively.

Mukhamediuly has had a torrid couple of years.

He was arrested in May 2022 and then sentenced in June 2023 to eight years in prison for misappropriating 221 million tenge ($490,000) allocated by the Kazakh government for a historical and cultural exhibition held in India in 2020.

He has staunchly denied his guilt.

More cases have been filed against him since then, including for illegally privatizing a state-owned sports school and fraudulently taking ownership of the Diplomat Hotel in Astana. Investigators claim he lent a large amount of money to the hotel’s owner in 2019 and then proceeded to take over his business by forging documents.

Investigators have moreover said that Mukhamediuly tried to settle his legal predicaments by bribing government officials.

“In December 2022, [Mukhamediuly], while in a pre-trial detention center in Astana, wanting to be released from custody and retain ownership of the [Diplomat] hotel, set out with criminal intent to give an especially large bribe to officials through a lawyer,” the indictment against the ex-minister stated, adding that he tried to involve his wife as an intermediary.

Mukhamediuly’s wife, Galiya Iskakova, is accused of transferring $460,000 to their lawyer, Mustakhim Tuleyev. The lawyer, however, appropriated the money for himself.

Iskakova was found guilty of mediation in bribery, while Tuleyev was found guilty of fraud on an especially large scale.

Mukhamediuly has frequently found himself at the center of scandals.

In 2016, film director Talgad Zhanybekov accused the then-Culture and Sports Minister of corruption. Zhanybekov claimed that he was unable to get hold of money earmarked by the state for the filming of a feature movie called Phoenix as Mukhamediuly was demanding to be given a cut.

The minister sued the director for libel and won.

Later that year, a former student at the Kazakh National Academy of Arts, Enlik Sydykova, accused Mukhamediuly of sexual harassment. The incident was not officially investigated.

Heavily government-critical news outlet Respublika argued in an article in May 2022 that Mukhamediuly had for years “managed to get away with scandals” because he enjoyed the patronage of the team around of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who stepped down in 2019 but retained considerable influence for years after that.

It was only after a wave of political unrest in January 2022, much of it directed at the legacy of cronyism and corruption of the Nazarbayev years, that many of the former president’s associates began to lose their former untouchable status.

Tajikistan to ramp up power exports to Afghanistan (EurasiaNet)

EurasiaNet [2/14/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
In a development underscoring the delicate balance between addressing the needs of Tajikistan’s domestic population and the government’s reliance on stable revenue, the state-owned power company has said it intends to boost electricity exports to Afghanistan, despite ongoing shortages at home.

Speaking to reporters on February 13, Barki Tojik head Mahmadumar Asozoda said Tajikistan is poised this year to increase electricity sales to Afghanistan by 17 percent.

Barki Tojik exported 2.7 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023, which was 124 million kilowatt-hours more than the year before. Of that total, some 1.6 billion kilowatt-hours were supplied to Afghanistan, Asozoda said. Another 907.5 million kilowatt-hours of electricity was sold to Uzbekistan, and the remaining 144.6 million kilowatt hours went to Kazakhstan.

The power company chief revealed this data and export plans for 2024 while also conceding that Tajik households may again have to endure electricity rationing.

A rationing regime has been in force for a number of winters in Tajikistan. When the temperature sinks below a certain level, output from the Nurek hydropower plant, which produces most of the country’s electricity needs, grinds to a near-halt.

Under the economy regime currently in place, households outside the country’s largest urban centers ensure blackouts from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m and then from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.

Asia-Plus news website reported that Asozoda attributed this requirement to Tajikistan’s rapidly growing population and improving living standards, which he said were driving up demand.

But Asozoda denied there was any tension between increased exports and the needs of the Tajik population.

“That is not exactly correct,” he was quoted as saying. “With the exception of Afghanistan, electricity exports stop in winter. A small amount of electricity is supplied [to Afghanistan] to keep their power lines in working order.”

Asozoda further noted that output is increasing. Tajikistan produced 21.65 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity last year, a 2.1 percent increase from 2022.

One development in support of upping sales to Afghanistan is that the Taliban-run regime in Kabul is proving a reliable payer.

On February 1, Tajik Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma announced to reporters that Afghanistan had fully paid off its debts for power delivered to date. Kabul has since 2021 struggled to keep up with its dues.

The current electricity supply agreement in place until 2028 between Afganistan and Tajikistan is the result of an agreement reached in 2008. At the end of each year, the parties sign a renewal protocol, which determines the cost and volume of electricity supplies for the next year. Asozoda met in December in Turkey with his Afghan opposite party, Alhaj Mullah Muhammad Hanif Hamza, head of Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat, or DABS, to sign an electricity purchase agreement for 2024.

Taliban officials later confirmed to journalists that they had paid off their electricity bills — to the full amount of $627 million — to all its suppliers, which also include Iran, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Clock is ticking as Central Asia confronts water calamity (EurasiaNet – opinion)

EurasiaNet [2/14/2024 4:14 PM, Sanat Kushkumbayev, 57.6K, Neutral]
The future of water in Central Asia is about numbers.

And the numbers are troubling.

Consider this: the five countries in the region collectively consume approximately 127 billion cubic meters of water, with about 80 percent, or 100 billion cubic meters, used annually for agriculture.

But only 50 percent of the water earmarked for agriculture is utilized effectively. This implies that half of the water does not reach the fields and is lost along the way due to the poor condition of irrigation facilities and wasteful agricultural practices.

To put it succinctly, countries are flushing away vast quantities of water and getting little in return. That is why Central Asia’s water use efficiency indicator has been found to be eight times lower than the global average.

There are clear and present repercussions to this mismanagement.

Of the region’s 79 million people, fully 22 million lack access to safe water. So, for every 10 Central Asians, three live perennially without the certainty they can find a glass of clean water to drink. And that ratio may get much worse without remedial action.

The World Bank estimates that the population of the region is poised to grow to 90-110 million by 2050. Continued urbanization, climate change, droughts, and the demand for increased food production will only exacerbate the strain on scarce water resources.

An immediate turn to rational usage of shared water resources on a sustainable, equitable, and cooperative basis is imperative.

This year, Kazakhstan has taken over as chair of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, or IFAS. It will perform that role for three years.

IFAS needs a kickstart if it is to be of any use. As observers have fairly noted, the Aral Sea is scarcely a sea, and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea lacks funds. Kazakh officials have stated that they intend to give new vigor to this body.

This presents a valuable opportunity to take decisive steps.

To begin with, we should establish a Central Asian Water and Energy Consortium, with equal participation of all regional states. This idea has been under discussion for a considerable time and has garnered support, particularly at the USAID. The consortium should be based on an international treaty and be open to extra-regional participants, international organizations, and financial institutions.

The desired outcome is to strike a balance between the interests of so-called "upper" and "lower" states.

Upper states – which is to say Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the heavily mountainous nations in which our region’s big rivers mostly rise – want to build large hydroelectric power plants. That will entail erecting tall dams and vast reservoirs.

What is more, politicians and experts in those countries call for water from transboundary rivers to be considered a commodity. This implies slapping a charge on water use by lower states – Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, which happen to be far better endowed with other natural resources, like oil, gas, and even uranium.

This impasse has led to decades of often fruitless disputes. Less arguing, more negotiating is the order of the day.

Next, there is the elephant in the room: Afghanistan. There is no point in pretending this country does not have a colossal part to play. It taps into the same water resources that Central Asian nations rely upon, so it needs to be made a partner to the conversation.

Failure to do that bears deep risks.

In 2022, the Taliban-run government initiated construction of a significant irrigation project known as the Kosh-Tepa Canal. The canal spans 285 kilometers, from Balkh to Faryab province. It is expected that work on it will be completed by 2028.

Once finished, Kosh-Tepa will have the capacity to divert up to 20 percent of water from the Amu Darya. This development could raise tensions between Central Asian countries and Afghanistan.

There may be ideological and political differences between Afghanistan and the five countries of Central Asia, but Kabul’s practical participation in water management processes is a sine qua non for sustainable management of the entire basin.

And third, it is high time to apply best practices in water usage.

This is costly, but doing this would be a win-win. Using water efficiently means more of it is available to go around, less pollution, higher productivity, which in turn means more money. All the region’s governments need to be encouraging the introduction of modern technologies, digitalization, and green investments in the water sector.

Again, we must turn to numbers to illustrate the stakes.

The Global Commission on Adaptation has identified a direct correlation between water policies and economic indicators. Their predictions suggest that if Central Asian countries fail to address the water issue by 2050, there could be a substantial decrease in gross domestic product, or GDP, in the range of 7-12 percent.

That would be calamitous.

Twitter

Afghanistan

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[2/14/2024 9:19 AM, 230.8K followers, 43 retweets, 275 likes]
Today, the ambassador of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Zhirnov, called on IEA-Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi. The meeting underlined bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Russia, & participation of the Afghan government in upcoming Doha meeting.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[2/14/2024 9:19 AM, 230.8K followers, 1 retweet, 15 likes]
At the outset, Mr. Zhirnov sought information about the position of the Islamic Emirate regarding the upcoming Doha meeting so side meetings could be arranged with FM Muttaqi in case IEA participation is ensured.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[2/14/2024 9:19 AM, 230.8K followers, 8 likes]
In response, FM Muttaqi said that we are in close contact with the relevant UN bodies and have shared our views on the possible participation of IEA delegation in the Doha meeting.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[2/14/2024 9:19 AM, 230.8K followers, 1 retweet, 11 likes]
FM Muttaqi said that if there is an opportunity for high-level meaningful consultations between IEA and UN regarding all issues of Afghanistan, & the IEA is able to duly fulfill its responsibility as representative of Afghanistan, then Doha meeting would be a good opportunity.

Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[2/14/2024 9:19 AM, 230.8K followers, 1 retweet, 12 likes]
FM Muttaqi said if IEA conditions are not taken into consideration, non-participation would be preferred, thus dialogue with all Doha meeting participants in ongoing. To end, the Russian ambassador said that he understood position of the Afghan government & will convey it Moscow

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[2/14/2024 2:01 PM, 169.1K followers, 1 retweet, 17 likes]
(1/3) Last quarter, Pakistan’s govt initiated its “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan” with intent to deport all undocumented Afghans, up to 1.3 million people. Some 493,000 Afghans returned to #AFG since Sept, either through deportation/coercion, straining existing resources

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[2/14/2024 2:01 PM, 169.1K followers, 2 likes]
(2/3) Returning Afghans need food, water, health services, legal aid, explosive risk ordnance education, protection, and shelter, placing further weight on the overwhelmed humanitarian system. UN’s International Organization for Migration organized a $75.7 million humanitarian...

SIGAR
@SIGARHQ
[2/14/2024 2:01 PM, 169.1K followers, 2 likes]
(3/3)...response for returnees in 2023–2024. #StateDept’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, & Migration provided $3.6 million to Border Consortium partners for activities that support newly returned Afghans at border reception & transit centers https://sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2024-01-30qr-intro-section1.pdf#page=11

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[2/14/2024 11:12 AM, 251.1K followers, 35 retweets, 88 likes]
Disturbing reports surface once again revealing the relentless crackdown against former ANDSF members by the Taliban in Afghanistan in collaboration with Iran. More recently, details of a former interior ministry officer, Abdul Mateen emerged where he was forcibly expelled from Iran a week ago and was detained by the Taliban in Herat for three days. His fate and whereabouts remains unknown. There have been growing concerns and allegations about a potential deal between the Taliban and Iranian officials. This deal involves certain ANDSF members being either handed over to the Taliban or Iranian officials informing the Taliban’s notorious GDI about the movements of specific former ANDSF members in or out of Iran, often when these former officer apply for visa renewals and reveals their details to the authorities in Iran at the border crossings in Western Afghanistan The tragic forced disappearance of Abdul Mateen follows the execution of a young man in Panjshir province, as reported by the victim’s family, stating that the “Taliban tortured the young man to death”. In another brutal incident in Faryab province, a former member of ANDSF died under torture.

D Tazeh
@DTazeh
[2/14/2024 5:53 PM, 1.7K followers, 9 retweets, 12 likes]
The U.S. House Foreign Relations Committee will conduct a hearing on how the Biden administration failed to implement the Doha Agreement. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former US special representative for Afghanistan peace, will testify at the hearing, which is scheduled forThursday, 26 December. Khalilzad, the former U.S. Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation in Qatar, is considered the architect of the Doha Agreement and is facing severe of criticism in Afghanistan and the U.S. The House Foreign Relations Committee will hold this meeting under the title "Behind the Curtain: How the Biden Administration Failed to Implement the Doha Agreement". The Doha agreement between America and the Taliban became the basis for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, following which Ashraf Ghani, the former President, fled from Kabul, the Taliban regained power, and thousands of people were forced to leave the country. Afghanistan’s economy, national security, and civic life deteriorated.

Pakistan

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[2/14/2024 10:58 PM, 209.2K followers, 3.6K retweets, 7K likes]
Imran Khan’s PTI party seems to have broken the military’s stranglehold on political control, giving cause for some optimism about the future of Pakistan’s democracy. My reflections on last week’s election for @ForeignPolicy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/14/pakistan-elections-pti-imran-khan-upset-military/

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[2/14/2024 11:07 AM, 42.3K followers, 60 retweets, 205 likes]
The PDM government, in the last weeks of its tenure, railroaded bills through parliament that gave the army unprecedented power. If the PDM coalition governs again, there’s more of that ahead.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[2/14/2024 10:28 AM, 42.3K followers, 60 retweets, 227 likes]
The PDM government was very unpopular during its 16-month tenure. Do they think things will be different this time around — especially after this election?

India

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/14/2024 11:36 AM, 95.3M followers, 2K retweets, 9.5K likes]
During this UAE visit, I got to be a part of a wide range of programmes, which have boosted India-UAE friendship and deepened the cultural connect between our nations. I am glad to have addressed the @WorldGovSummit and talked about our efforts to make our planet better. I thank the Government and people of UAE for their warm hospitality.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/14/2024 11:06 AM, 95.3M followers, 11K retweets, 60K likes]
The @BAPS Hindu Mandir, Abu Dhabi, UAE opens its doors for devotees! Feel very blessed to be a part of this very sacred moment. Here are some glimpses.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[2/14/2024 4:10 AM, 95.3M followers, 2.8K retweets, 8.5K likes]
Sharing my remarks at the International Energy Agency’s Ministerial Meeting. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1lDxLPQvOVQxm

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[2/14/2024 7:42 AM, 24M followers, 236 retweets, 1.8K likes]
President Droupadi Murmu addressed a gathering of tribal women associated with various Self Help Groups at Beneshwar Dham, Rajasthan. The President said that Self Help Groups are not only providing working capital but also doing commendable work in creating human capital and social capital. https://presidentofindia.gov.in/press_releases/president-india-addresses-tribal-women-associated-various-self-help-groups-beneshwar

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/15/2024 1:20 AM, 1.5M followers, 23 retweets, 151 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar presented ‘Sarthak Samman’ to distinguished philanthropists-alumni of the University of Delhi, and awarded gold medals to meritorious students of Hindu College at the 125th Founder’s Day celebrations of the institution today. #HinduCollege @hinducollege_du @UnivofDelhi

Vice President of India
@VPIndia
[2/15/2024 1:17 AM, 1.5M followers, 26 retweets, 119 likes]
Hon’ble Vice-President, Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar, released several publications and commemorative coin marking 125 years of Hindu College in New Delhi today. #HinduCollege @hinducollege_du @UnivofDelhi

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[2/14/2024 10:28 AM, 262.3K followers, 358 retweets, 1.7K likes]
Denied a US visa, Modi went on to become the prime minister of the world’s largest democracy. Now ex-general Prabowo Subianto, who was earlier banned from entering the US because of alleged human rights abuses, wins presidential election in Indonesia, the third largest democracy.

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[2/14/2024 11:10 AM, 262.3K followers, 32 retweets, 244 likes]
It is as if to lead a major non-Western democracy, an essential pre-qualification is to have been once banned from entering the United States. But the use of entry bans against prominent figures reeks of the imperial hubris in U.S. foreign policy.

NSB

Awami League
@albd1971
[2/14/2024 8:29 AM, 636.1K followers, 27 retweets, 103 likes]
On Tuesday, the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) approved a project for providing #freelancing training to educated and young jobseekers of 48 districts in #Bangladesh. The Ecnec approved nine development projects involving a total of 4,453 crore. https://unb.com.bd/category/Bangladesh/govt-okays-project-to-provide-freelancing-training-to-youths-in-48-districts/130844

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[2/15/2024 2:03 AM, 5.1K followers, 6 likes]
This @AP article highlights that #Bangladesh, after the last farcical election, “some” are worried that the country is slipping from a democracy to autocracy. This is typical of the Western media’s shallow & misguided perception of Bangladesh. “Some” people are not worried about the lack of democracy. The vast majority of the people are worried that the country has already slipped into authoritarianism a long time ago. It is also completely false that 41% of the population voted. The reports from the ground (& not the ruling regime’s propaganda machinery) indicate that not even 5% of the population voted because it was known that the “election” was a farce.

Last but not least, Sheikh Hasina is not some development genie who has turned the country into some 21st century economic miracle. She has indented Bangladeshis heavily by taking billions of dollars of loans & in indulging only in infrastructure projects which are the easiest to misappropriate funds from. The country has not invested in high tech healthcare or education, two of the most fundamental & essential sectors for a society’s wellbeing.

Western news sites should do a deeper dive into Bangladesh & see that in reality, even the middle class is not able to afford proper nourishment & avoid buying meat & fish because of the excessive cost of living. Not to mention the worst air quality in the world on most days of the week, which the ruling regime has done nothing to improve. Western regimes & media do an enormous disservice to 🇧🇩 when they base their narratives on state sponsored propaganda. https://apnews.com/bangladesh-election-2024?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share

PM Bhutan
@PMBhutan
[2/13/2024 6:57 AM, 103.9K followers, 5 retweets, 26 likes]
Hon’ble Prime Minister visited the Anti-Corruption Commission, and met with the Chairperson, Commissioners, and staff. During his visit, the Prime Minister commended the challenging work undertaken by the Commission and expressed his support for their efforts.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[2/14/2024 1:10 PM, 106.9K followers, 93 retweets, 99 likes]
This evening, H.E. President Dr @MMuizzu met with the Maldivian community in UAE, where he launched "Riveli", a tailor-made online programme to revitalise our nationalistic identity by incorporating Dhivehi language and Islamic studies to teach Maldivians abroad.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[2/14/2024 12:48 PM, 106.9K followers, 86 retweets, 94 likes]
Vice President @HucenSembe attends the official ceremony to celebrate Maldives’ 46th Martyrs’ Day at the Social Centre.

MFA SriLanka
@MFA_SriLanka
[2/14/2024 5:40 AM, 38K followers, 3 retweets, 6 likes]
Foreign Minister Ali Sabry to attend Munich Security Conference 2024 More: https://mfa.gov.lk/mfa-sl-attend-msc-2024/ #DiplomacyLK #lka

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[2/14/2024 5:17 AM, 4.9K followers, 6 retweets, 6 likes]
Revolutionising Restoration: Sri Lanka Globally Recognised by UN for Rebuilding Mangrove Ecosystems 2024 marks a landmark achievement in the world of conservation with Sri Lanka being declared as a UN World Restoration Flagship, in recognition of the nation’s vital efforts to rebuild and restore its mangrove ecosystems. The award signifies the nation’s effective use of the UN’s Principles for Ecosystem Restoration, while highlighting globally significant best practices and methodologies that can potentially serve as a framework for future success across the world.

The aftermath of the 2004 tsunami and its destructive impacts on Sri Lanka’s coastline highlighted the importance of mangroves as a coastal protector. Unfortunately, the continued destruction of mangroves, and the lack of a formal mechanism impeded effective conservation and restoration. Sri Lanka’s commitment to strengthen its coastal ecosystems dates back to 2015 and beyond, and was accomplished by the establishment of expert panels, task forces, policies, action plans and restoration guidelines that represent top-to-bottom and bottom-to-top coalitions for action and conservation.

The nation’s revolutionary approach towards mangrove restoration is primarily underpinned by science-driven methodologies, with a focus on reviving ecosystem services. This two-pronged approach is designed to restore the balance of the entire ecosystem and its connectivity. The involvement of youth as researchers and future restoration leaders, and the mobilisation of multiple stakeholder groups spanning the Government, NGOs, the private sector, academia and the community have culminated in a new paradigm of restoration that is built for the future.

The UN Flagship Restoration Award is a timely recognition of Sri Lanka’s viable, lasting solutions towards the restoration of these essential ecosystems which support countless lives and livelihoods across the island. The nation is slated to receive the award at the United Nations Environmental Assembly which will be held in Nairobi on 27th February 2024.

Central Asia

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[2/15/2024 1:40 AM, 4.5K followers, 1 like]
Meeting with the Director General of the International Organization for Migration https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/14387/meeting-with-the-director-general-of-the-international-organization-for-migration

Furqat Sidiqov
@FurqatSidiq
[2/14/2024 6:46 PM, 1.2K followers, 1 like]
It’s always been a pleasure to talk with Ambassador @AliceGWells, International Government Relations Adviser at @ExxonMobil. Thoroughly discussed bilateral relations and agreed to establish cooperation between Uzbekistan and @ExxonMobil in the field of natural gas!

Furqat Sidiqov
@FurqatSidiq
[2/14/2024 6:44 PM, 1.2K followers, 8 likes]
Had a productive discussion with Ambassador Donald Lu, A/S Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs @State_SCA, on our bilateral agenda. Grateful for his support in strengthening the Uzbekistan and the U.S. Strategic Partnership.

{End of Report}

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