epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
The Taliban are celebrating three years in power, but they’re not talking about Afghans (AP)
AP [8/14/2024 4:37 AM, Riazat Butt, 456K, Neutral]
The Taliban celebrated the third anniversary of their return to power at a former U.S. air base in Afghanistan on Wednesday, but there was no mention of the country’s hardships or promises of hope for the struggling population.

Under blue skies and blazing sunshine at Bagram — once the epicentre of America’s war to unseat the Taliban and hunt down the al-Qaida perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks — members of the Taliban cabinet lauded achievements like strengthening Islamic law and establishing a military system that provides “peace and security.”

The speeches were aimed at an international audience, urging the diaspora to return and for the West to interact and cooperate with the country’s rulers.

“The Islamic Emirate eliminated internal differences and expanded the scope of unity and cooperation in the country,” said deputy prime minister Maulvi Abdul Kabir, employing the term the Taliban use to describe their government. “No one will be allowed to interfere in internal affairs and Afghan soil will not be used against any country.”

None of the four speakers talked about the challenges facing Afghans in everyday life.

Decades of conflict and instability have left millions of Afghans on the brink of hunger and starvation. Unemployment is high.

The Bagram parade was the Taliban’s grandest and most defiant since regaining control of the country in August 2021.

The audience of some 10,000 men included senior Taliban officials like Acting Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob and Acting Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. Supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada was not at the parade. Women were barred.

The Taliban said foreign diplomats also attended, but did not specify who.

Aid agencies warn that humanitarian efforts in the country are gravely underfunded as economic collapse and climate change are destroying livelihoods.

They say that Afghans, particularly women and girls, will suffer if there isn’t more diplomatic engagement with the Taliban. No country recognises the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

The parade was also an opportunity to showcase some of the military hardware abandoned by U.S. and NATO-led forces after decades of war: helicopters, Humvees and tanks.

Uniformed soldiers marched with light and heavy machine guns, and a motorcycle formation bore the Taliban flag.

The Taliban declared Wednesday a national holiday.
The Taliban have ruled Afghanistan for 3 years. Here are 5 things to know (AP)
AP [8/14/2024 12:46 AM, Riazat Butt, 456K, Neutral]
It’s been three years since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. They have transitioned from insurgency to authority, imposed their interpretation of Islamic law and sought to reinforce their claim to legitimacy.

Despite no international recognition as the country’s official rulers, the Taliban enjoy high-level meetings with major regional powers like China and Russia. They even attended United Nations-sponsored talks while Afghan women and civil society were denied a seat at the table. It was a triumph for the Taliban, who see themselves as the country’s only true representatives.

There’s no domestic challenge to their rule, and no overseas appetite to support one. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza draw the international community’s focus, and Afghanistan doesn’t represent the same terror threat it once did. But challenges remain.

Here are five things to know about the Taliban in power.

Culture wars and rewards

The Taliban supreme leader sits atop a pyramid-like ruling system as a paragon of virtue. Mosques and clerics are on one side. On the other is the Kabul administration, which implements clerics’ decisions and meets with foreign officials.

“There are different levels of extremism, and the Taliban are in an uneasy coalition of ruling hard-liners and political pragmatists. It has put them in a culture war,” said Javid Ahmad, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.

The most controversial policies are unlikely to be reversed while supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is in charge — and supreme leaders don’t retire or resign. They lead until death.

It’s wishful thinking that diverging opinions are enough to divide the Taliban, said Ibraheem Bahiss with Crisis Group’s South Asia program. “The Taliban are unified and will remain a political force for many years. They rule as one group, they fight as one group.”

To maintain cohesion and ensure discipline, seasoned Taliban have moved from the battlefield into bureaucracy, getting top jobs in government and provinces.

“You have to give them a reward for playing a significant role in the insurgency,” Ahmad said. Other perks can include a free hand in the running of a province or permission to have a third or fourth wife, a new pickup truck, a share in customs fees or the keys to a house.

Running the country

Bahiss called this “the strongest Afghan government in modern times. They can exact a decree to the village level.”

Civil servants keep the country running and are more likely to have a formal or technical education. But the Taliban leading civilian institutions have no proper knowledge of how such institutions are run. “Their qualifications come from God,” Ahmad said.

The Taliban’s legitimacy to govern doesn’t come from Afghans but from their interpretation of religion and culture, said Leena Rikkila Tamang with the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

If a government is defined by the trust and buy-in of citizens, recognition by international powers and legitimacy through processes like elections, then the Taliban do not qualify as a government, she said.

Keeping the lights on

Afghanistan’s economy has weakened. In 2023, foreign aid still made up around 30% of the country’s GDP.

The U.N. has flown in at least $3.8 billion to fund international aid organizations during the past three years. The United States remains the largest donor, sending more than $3 billion in assistance since the Taliban takeover. But the U.S. watchdog assigned to follow the money says a lot is taxed or diverted.

“The further the cash gets away from the source, the less transparency there is,” said Chris Borgeson, the deputy inspector general for audits and inspections at the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.

The Taliban also apply vigorous taxation. In 2023, they collected around $2.96 billion. But that’s not much in a country with huge and complex needs, and the Taliban don’t have the means to stimulate the economy.

The central bank can’t print money. Cash is printed abroad. Interest transactions are banned because interest is forbidden in Islam, and banks aren’t lending. The Taliban can’t borrow money because they’re not recognized as the government, and international banking is cut off.

Natural disasters and the flow of Afghans fleeing Pakistan under pressure to return home have underlined Afghanistan’s reliance on foreign aid to meet essential needs.

It’s a big risk if the international community can’t send that kind of aid in the future. “We know Afghanistan will start receiving less money from the international community,” said Muhammad Waheed, World Bank senior economist for Afghanistan.

Another significant blow to the economy has been the Taliban’s ban on female education and most employment, removing half of Afghanistan’s population from the spending and taxpaying that can strengthen the economy.

In addition, the Taliban’s anti-narcotics policy “has wrecked the livelihood of thousands of farmers,” said Bahiss, warning that “just because the population is complacent right now, it won’t stay that way.”

Diplomacy and the global stage

Afghanistan is a small country in a neighborhood of giants, Bahiss said, and there’s a regional consensus that it’s better to have a stable Afghanistan.

But support from the West, especially the U.S., is key to unlocking billions in frozen assets and lifting sanctions.

The Taliban’s links with China and Russia are important because they are permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. They have also occupied seats on the United Nations’ Credentials Committee, which decides whether to withhold or bestow legitimacy on a government.

For now, Gulf nations are engaging with the Taliban to hedge their bets. “Qatar likes to be seen as leading mediation efforts and the (United Arab Emirates) has been taking that away, especially through supporting international aviation,” Bahiss said.

A meeting this year between the leader of the UAE and a Taliban official facing a U.S. bounty over attacks highlighted the growing global divide on how to deal with the Taliban.

The Taliban are keen to stress how effective they are as a government and to show the country is peaceful and that services are being provided, said Weeda Mehran, an international relations lecturer at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom.

Although Afghanistan has lost dozens of media outlets due to a Taliban crackdown, the country’s rulers have grasped the impact of social media. Their content is intended to normalize their approach to Islamic law, which is where Arabic-language messaging is important.

“It’s a watered-down and whitewashed account of what is happening in the country,” Mehran said.

Secure, but not safe

The Taliban have secured Afghanistan through checkpoints, armored vehicles and hundreds of thousands of fighters. But the country is not safe, especially for women and minorities, as civilian casualties from suicide bombings and other attacks persist.

The Islamic State group has repeatedly targeted the mostly Shiite Dasht-e-Barchi neighborhood in Kabul. The police, slow to confirm attacks and casualty numbers, tell the media that investigations are underway but don’t say if anyone is brought to justice.

A newer phenomenon is the anxiety experienced by Afghan women as the Taliban enforce decrees on clothing, work and travel and the requirement to have a male guardian when traveling.

“A message for the mainstream media is that it’s OK and there is good security in Afghanistan under the Taliban,” Mehran said. “My argument would be, well, whose security are we talking about?”
Taliban Celebrate Three Years Since Takeover Of Afghanistan (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [8/13/2024 6:43 PM, Abdullah Hasrat and Aysha Safi, 85570K, Neutral]
Taliban authorities kicked off celebrations of the third anniversary of their rule over Afghanistan on Wednesday at the former US Bagram air base.

Hundreds of people, including Chinese and Iranian diplomats, gathered at the base, around 40 kilometres (25 miles) outside Kabul, for speeches and a military parade.

The Taliban government has "the responsibility to maintain Islamic rule, protect property, people’s lives and the respect of our nation", Prime Minister Mohammad Hassan Akhund, who was not present, said in a statement read by his chief of staff.

Helicopters had carried senior Taliban officials to the event at Afghanistan’s biggest air base, which served as the linchpin of US-led operations in the country for two decades.

Taliban forces seized the capital Kabul on August 15, 2021, after the US-backed government collapsed and its leaders fled into exile. The anniversary is marked a day earlier on the Afghan calendar.

"On this date, Allah granted the Mujahid nation of Afghanistan a decisive victory over an international arrogant and occupying force," Akhund said in a statement on Tuesday.

Extra security was deployed in the capital and the Taliban’s spiritual home of Kandahar ahead of the "day of victory", with Islamic State group attacks a continued threat in the country.

In the three years since they ended their 20-year insurgency, the Taliban government has consolidated its grip on the country, implementing laws based on its strict interpretation of Islam.

The government remains unrecognised by any other state, with restrictions on women, who bear the brunt of policies the United Nations has called "gender apartheid", remaining a key sticking point.

The days before the celebrations, workers were busy putting up banners and billboards reading "Congratulations" with the anniversary date around Kabul.

Vendors selling flags of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -- the Taliban government’s formal name for the country -- dotted the city, the white and black standard also fluttering over streets.

Celebrations featuring athletes and poetry readings were due to be held at a stadium in the capital.

Heavy security and decorations also went up in the southern city of Kandahar -- the birthplace of the Taliban movement and home to the reclusive leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, who rules through religious edict.

Security has been a key priority for Taliban authorities, and while many Afghans express relief at the end of 40 years of successive conflicts, the economy remains in crisis and the population mired in a worsening humanitarian crisis.

A joint statement from international non-governmental groups warned of the growing aid funding gap, with 23.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) reiterated calls for pressure on the Taliban government to lift restrictions on women, who have been squeezed from public life and banned from secondary and higher education.

"The third anniversary of the Taliban’s takeover is a grim reminder of Afghanistan’s human rights crisis, but it should also be a call for action," said Fereshta Abbasi, Afghanistan researcher for HRW.
Taliban Battles Boredom, Risk Of Fighters Joining Enemy Ranks (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [8/14/2024 4:14 PM, Michael Scollon, 235K, Neutral]
The Taliban craves recognition by the international community that it is the only group capable of ruling and establishing security in Afghanistan.

But not only has the militant group failed to achieve that status in its three years in power, rival extremist groups like Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) are mocking it for trying.

IS-K has accused the Taliban of abandoning jihad, or holy war, and bowing to the foreign states it once fought to secure foreign aid and investment.

That is the narrative promoted by the Afghanistan-based branch of the Islamic State (IS) extremist group as it looks to recruit belligerent Taliban fighters into its ranks.

To lure Taliban fighters, IS-K has conducted attacks within and outside Afghanistan that undermine the Taliban’s rule.

IS-K has also employed a sophisticated and multilingual propaganda network to cast itself as the only option for hardened Taliban fighters who want to continue warring against foreigners and sectarian adversaries.

"This is a very powerful and potent strategy, and it is likely already working," said Lucas Webber, co-founder of Militant Wire and research fellow at the Soufan Center. "There are reports of defections."

Some Taliban rank-and-file, Webber says, may be fighting the complacency that comes with the day-to-day monotony of running a state.

"A lot of these fighters, they grew up their whole lives fighting the United States and the international coalition, and they come from the global jihadist movement, the historic legacy of fighting the Soviets and fighting the Americans and their Western allies," Webber said. "Now a lot of them are stuck, bored, doing administrative jobs."

The Taliban has tightened its grip on power since seizing Kabul in August 2021 and tried to capitalize on its gains to boost its image as a stabilizing force inside Afghanistan and in the region.

"The consolidation of power has improved peace and stability internally and resulted in other positive benefits such as reduced corruption, decreased opium cultivation, and enhanced revenue generation," the UN monitoring team in Afghanistan reported in early July.

But the hard-line Islamist group’s widespread human rights abuses and failure to establish a government inclusive of women and the country’s various religious and ethnic groups has left its biggest goal -- international recognition -- out of reach.

It is a situation that, combined with multiple humanitarian, environmental, and economic crises, has hampered international aid and investment and undermined the Taliban’s de facto government.

So, too, have the actions of IS-K, a group founded in 2015 by disgruntled members of the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and which subsumed the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, according to Webber.

When IS militants claimed responsibility for the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia in two decades in March, suspicion immediately fell directly on IS-K.

The Taliban, which has tried to neutralize IS-K and assuage concerns that Afghanistan is a haven for extremist groups, repeated its denials that the organization was operating on Afghan soil.

But there is a wealth of evidence to show that the Taliban recognizes the threat IS-K poses both militarily and ideologically to its rule.

Just prior to the Moscow bombing in March, Afghan media published an internal document attributed to the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI), the Taliban’s notorious intelligence agency, which acknowledged IS recruitment efforts in the central Wardak Province. The document discussed the possibility that Taliban members who left the group during a recent effort to purge the ranks of undesirable fighters might have enlisted to fight for IS.

The UN monitoring team in early July warned that IS-K had grown in numbers and succeeded in infiltrating the Taliban’s GDI as well as its Defense and Interior ministries.

In late July, Afghan media reported the arrest of 20 GDI members accused of working for IS-K in the western Herat Province, leading to the dismissal of the security body’s regional head.

For every step the Taliban takes to burnish its image at home and abroad, IS-K is doing its best to undermine it.

IS-K seeks to establish a caliphate, or Islamic state, in Khorasan, a historical region that includes parts of modern-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia.

"The group’s narrative aims to reduce the Taliban’s credibility among the Afghan population and trigger sectarian fault lines, promoting the idea that the Taliban has deviated from Islamic principles, while portraying itself as advancing the ‘wider Khorasan,’" a UN Security Council committee reported in late July.

Externally, that means conducting attacks in Tajikistan, Iran, and Pakistan, as well as in Russia.

In Afghanistan itself, IS-K attacks undercut the Taliban’s argument that it has established the type of security demanded by potential foreign investors from China and other states willing to work with the de facto government.

In March, IS-K killed 21 people, most of them Taliban employees, at a bank in the southern city of Kandahar.

Two months later, IS-K killed six foreign and local tourists in the central city of Bamiyan. The Bamiyan Buddhas were infamously reduced to rubble by the Taliban’s first regime just before it was ousted by U.S.-led forces in 2001. Since retaking power, the Taliban has taken the remains of the Buddhas under its protection as it attempts to lure foreign, particularly Chinese, tourists to visit the UNESCO site.

IS-K has used such attacks to flip some Taliban fighters to its side, boasting in a statement following the killings in Bamiyan that it had targeted foreign tourists and "Shi’a" living in the area. A Sunni extremist group, IS-K considers Shi’ite Muslims apostates.

Riccardo Valle, director of research for The Khorasan Diary, said following the attack IS-K pointed out differences between the first Taliban regime that destroyed the Bamiyan Buddhas and the current one.

"They are saying that once the Afghan Taliban were correctly applying religion, so they were destroying these idols," Valle said. But today IS-K has accused the Taliban of protecting the Bamiyan Buddhas "so that the Chinese can in return grant financial assistance, economic assistance to Afghanistan."

The violence, Valle says, is part of IS-K’s effort to disrupt the Taliban’s economy and weaken its relations with foreign states.

"They are also speaking directly to Taliban soldiers, trying to show them that the Islamic State is the only actor carrying out jihad," Valle added. "They know that some Afghan Taliban might be willing to listen."
Pakistani, Afghan Taliban forces trade fire at Torkham border crossing, killing 3 Afghan civilians (AP)
AP [8/13/2024 8:44 AM, Rahim Faiez, 85570K, Negative]
Pakistani and Afghan Taliban forces traded cross-border fire near a key northwestern crossing, killing a woman and two children on the Afghan side of the border, officials said Tuesday.

There was no immediate word on casualties on the Pakistani side of the Torkham border which was shut, disrupting trade and movement of people between the two countries, local Pakistani official Zahid Khan said.

Torkham, a key border crossing, is located in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

It was unclear who initiated the attack, though such cross-border fire is common along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Each side has in the past closed Torkham, and also the southwestern Chaman border crossing in Pakistan, for various reasons. Both crossings are vital for trade and travel for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In Kabul, Abdul Mateen Qani, a spokesman for Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry, said the clash took place Monday and accused Pakistani forces of targeting civilians.

He said “Pakistani forces opened fire on forces of the Islamic Emirate in the Ghorki area near the Durand line in Torkham area, prompting a response from the Afghan side,.”

He said on the social media platform X that Afghan forces destroyed two Pakistani border posts during the clashes.

Pakistani officials say the two sides were in contact with each other to defuse tensions.

Local officials in Pakistan on Tuesday said thousands of people living near the Torkham border fled and evacuated to safer places on Monday.

Pakistani authorities said trucks carrying perishable items, including vegetables and fruits, were waiting on both sides of the border Tuesday for the reopening of the Torkham crossing.

The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were withdrawing from the country after 20 years of war. Like the rest of the world, Pakistan has so far not recognized Afghanistan’s Taliban government. The international community has been wary of the Taliban’s harsh measures, imposed since their takeover, especially in restricting the rights of women and minorities.
Afghanistan reports 3 civilians died in border clash with Pakistan (VOA)
VOA [8/13/2024 9:09 AM, Ayaz Gul, 4032K, Negative]
Afghanistan’s Taliban officials said Tuesday that at least three civilians were killed on their side of the border in an overnight clash with Pakistan, saying the victims are a woman and two children.

Abdul Mateen Qani, the spokesperson for the Taliban-led interior ministry in Kabul, accused Pakistani forces of initiating Monday’s conflict near the busy Torkham border crossing.

He claimed in a statement that the Pakistani side targeted Afghan civilian homes and, in retaliation, Taliban forces destroyed two Pakistani border outposts. The claims could not be verified by independent sources.

A security official in Pakistan reported that the incident had injured three soldiers. He spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to discuss the matter with the media.

The Pakistani military’s media wing did not respond to inquiries regarding the border skirmish and the reported casualties resulting from it.

Multiple Pakistani security officials said that the Afghan side attempted to construct a border post in violation of bilateral agreements, prompting them to open fire when Taliban forces ignored warnings to stop the work.

The clashes closed the historic Torkham border gate to all traffic between the two countries, and it remained closed Tuesday.

The crossing is a major facility for landlocked Afghanistan to conduct bilateral and transit trade with Pakistan and other countries.

Border controversy

Clashes along the nearly 2,600-kilometer border separating the two countries are not uncommon.

Afghanistan disputes parts of the 1893 demarcation that was established during British colonial rule of the Indian subcontinent.

Pakistan rejects Afghan objections, saying it inherited the international border after gaining independence from Britain in 1947.

Cross-border terror

Monday’s deadly clash came amid escalating mutual tensions stemming from Islamabad’s allegations that Kabul is not preventing fugitive militants from using sanctuaries on Afghan soil to plan cross-border terrorist attacks against Pakistani civilians and security forces.

The latest such attack was reported Tuesday in the volatile Pakistani border district of South Waziristan. Security sources said that the predawn raid resulted in the death of at least four soldiers and injuries to 27 others, while four assailants were also killed.

Military officials did not immediately respond to VOA inquiries seeking a response to the deadly militant attack in time for publication.

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, a globally designated terrorist organization, took responsibility for the attack and confirmed the death of at least one of their militants in the ensuing clashes with security forces.

Pakistan complains that Taliban government forces in Afghanistan are facilitating TTP militants to carry out cross-border attacks.

In its recent reports, the United Nations has also backed Islamabad’s assertions, saying TTP members are being trained and equipped at al-Qaida-run training camps in Afghan border areas.

Kabul denies it is allowing anyone to use Afghan soil to threaten neighboring countries, dismissing U.N. reports about terror group presence in the country as propaganda against their Islamic government, established in August 2021 and not recognized by the world.
Aid groups: Afghanistan at risk of becoming ‘forgotten crisis’ (VOA)
VOA [8/13/2024 10:43 PM, Staff, 4032K, Neutral]
Aid organizations in Afghanistan warn that without sustained international support and engagement, the country is at risk of becoming "a forgotten crisis."

"Without rapid efforts to increase diplomatic engagement and longer-term sustainable funding, Afghans, especially women and girls, will be left to suffer for years to come," read a joint statement released on Tuesday by 10 international aid organizations operating the country.

Neil Turner, country director for Afghanistan at the Norwegian Refugee Council, said in a video message to VOA that international engagement is essential for a long-term solution to Afghanistan’s problems.

"We need to have full international engagement with the authorities, and that would allow us to move to find durable solutions for the problems that exist and not just provide relief, which might get people … from one month to the next," Turner said.

He added that although the aid organizations have been involved in humanitarian assistance for the past three years, when the international community "effectively abandoned Afghanistan," the current efforts cannot address the problems of poverty, unemployment and displacement.

Afghanistan has been facing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises since the Taliban seized power three years ago.

The Taliban are not recognized as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

The international community called on the Taliban to fulfill their commitments to respect human rights and form an inclusive government as conditions for recognition.

The Taliban, however, imposed repressive restrictions on women, banning them from receiving secondary and university education, working with government and nongovernmental organizations, traveling without close male relatives, and going to gyms and public parks.

The Taliban have formed an all-male Cabinet and refuse to share power with others.

The U.N. reported that in May, 23.7 million people, more than half of Afghanistan’s population, needed food assistance.

Women and children accounted for most of those in need.

Sakhi Bayramli, an Afghan human rights activist based in Germany, told VOA that one of the challenges facing the international community is engaging the Taliban.

"The international community should strike a balance between providing humanitarian assistance and negotiating with the Taliban to make sure that the aid reaches people in need in Afghanistan in a timely manner," Bayramli said.

The aid organizations also called on the international community to pressure the Taliban to respect human rights, particularly women’s rights.
How Negotiators Failed for Two Decades to Bring Peace to Afghanistan (Foreign Policy)
Foreign Policy [8/13/2024 3:48 PM, Andrew North, 2014K, Neutral]
Of the many missteps the United States made in its two-decade war in Afghanistan, one of the early ones involved a missed opportunity with the Taliban. In December 2001, just weeks after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban made an offer to the Bush administration: Its fighters would be willing to lay down their arms, provided they could live “in dignity” in their homes without being pursued and detained.

The offer was made in the form of a message to Afghan political leader Hamid Karzai. Had it been accepted, it may have prevented years of bloodshed and a long American occupation that ended in ignominy. But the United States at the time was reeling from the attacks of 9/11 and determined to eviscerate the group that had hosted al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and refused to hand him over. U.S. officials did not even respond to the offer.

Zalmay Khalilzad, a U.S. diplomat who dealt with Afghanistan for years, had a chance to ask the Taliban about that early truce offer while negotiating with the group much later—in 2021. He was struck by the response. “They thought that 20 years of war and all the loss of life on all sides was due to that mistake, as they saw it.”

This week marks three years since the Taliban marched on Kabul and regained control of Afghanistan. The hasty American retreat—and specifically the scenes of chaos at the Kabul airport—stand as a foreign-policy debacle for the Biden administration.

But America’s failure in Afghanistan is a much longer story. To try to understand it, Foreign Policy set out to explore why for two decades some of the world’s most experienced negotiators failed to reach an agreement that would have brought lasting peace to the country. The result of the reporting is a seven-episode season of our podcast, The Negotiators, produced in partnership with Doha Debates, and including interviews with key U.S., Afghan, and Taliban figures. You can hear it on our website or on any of the podcast platforms.

Based on conversations with the main actors, it is a story of misunderstandings, missed opportunities, and complacency—coupled with an American predilection for military action over diplomacy following the shock of 9/11. And while the Taliban were no pacifists themselves, they did at least show an early readiness to negotiate.

The misunderstandings and missed opportunities began to stack up in the closing stages of the U.S. invasion, when the Bush administration had the Taliban on the run and its focus was starting to shift toward Iraq. Uninterested in what it called “nation-building,” the administration asked the United Nations to shoulder the task of creating a new political order.

The result was a hastily convened conference in December 2001 in the German city of Bonn, which anointed Karzai as the new interim leader. But in line with U.S. wishes, the Taliban were excluded from the cross-section of Afghan political groups invited to attend.

For the U.N. and most of the Afghan delegates, the meeting was an opportunity to launch a peace process that would end the country’s forever war—which had been underway since the Soviet invasion in the late 1970s.

But for the Bush administration, the Bonn conference was simply a means “to consolidate victory in the war on terror,” according to American political scientist Barnett Rubin, who was then advising the U.N. envoy in charge of the meeting. “You can look through all the statements of all U.S. officials,” he said. “You will not find a word about peace in Afghanistan.”

That new order, agreed upon at the Bonn conference, did include plans for elections and a new constitution enshrining—among other things—rights for women. It also ushered in a period of optimism in Afghanistan, with millions of Afghan exiles returning home over the next few years, hopeful at that point that their country was on a path to stability with the West’s support.

But the Bonn agreement, patched together quickly, ended up cementing old divisions and creating new ones. “The underlying political issues were not even articulated at Bonn, let alone resolved,” Rubin said. It led directly to the Taliban taking up arms again, aided by the group’s sponsors in neighboring Pakistan, who also felt sidelined.

In response, the United States doubled down on its counterterrorism goal of trying to destroy the Taliban. Even figures who had been trying to maintain a dialogue were arrested, such as the Taliban’s former ambassador to Pakistan, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef.

In the years that followed, a weak, fractured, and aid-dependent Afghan government would struggle as the Taliban’s insurgency expanded. Their support grew as the death toll from U.S. night raids and airstrikes rose. But it was the Taliban, along with some of America’s European allies, who were first to revive efforts to talk.

One of those allies was Norway, which had troops in Afghanistan but also experience mediating in other conflicts. Lisa Golden, director of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry’s Peace and Reconciliation Department, said her government had quickly concluded that “a purely military solution wasn’t going to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.” The ties it built up with Taliban representatives led to a series of meetings in hotel rooms, “with the fruit basket that they provided between us,” Golden recalled.

To show his support for the talks, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar dispatched a trusted aide in 2009 to establish contact with both U.S. and European officials.

But nearly a decade into the Afghan war, entrenched American attitudes toward the Taliban made it difficult to get any talks started. Because of the risk that the United States would detain him and bundle him off to Guantánamo Bay, the aide, Tayyab Agha, had to work through intermediaries and travel clandestinely to the Middle East to set up meetings.

President Barack Obama had inherited the war by now and appointed veteran U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke as his envoy for the region. Part of Holbrooke’s brief was to weigh talking to the Taliban, and he brought in Rubin as one of his advisors. But the United States still had “no policy toward a political settlement,” said Rubin, nor on how to engage with the Taliban.

When U.S. officials finally got the go-ahead to meet, it was only Agha, the Taliban emissary, who had a set of proposals and demands—the American side came empty-handed. Holbrooke’s sudden death, in late 2010, again stalled this tentative U.S. attempt to talk to the Taliban. And when his replacement was appointed, Rubin and his colleagues found themselves undermined by leaks from the Pentagon and the intelligence community, who were putting their hopes in the U.S. troop surge then underway, not peacemaking. “Most of the government was against us,” Rubin said.

And so it went, with misunderstandings and disagreements snarling efforts to promote talks, while the bloodshed mounted. A deal for the Taliban to open a political office in Qatar in 2013 fell apart when the Afghan government objected to its quasi-official status. By then, it was two years since the United States had killed bin Laden and the Pentagon was reducing its troop count, with plans for Afghan government forces to take the lead. But as their spokesperson, Suhail Shaheen, boasted at the time, the Taliban’s power had only increased.

President Donald Trump brought a different approach to the White House—a determination to withdraw American troops no matter what it meant for the Afghan government. But by then, U.S. leverage had weakened. “Instead of trying to negotiate at the apex of U.S. power and the nadir of Taliban power and capability in Afghanistan, we finally got serious about it as the U.S. was clearly on the way out the door and the Taliban was making steady advances,” said Laurel Miller, who served as acting U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the start of the Trump administration.

Trump instructed Khalilzad to negotiate a withdrawal—but that meant that the chief U.S. concern was getting out safely, not achieving an Afghan peace settlement. This was underlined by the fact that only American and Taliban negotiators met in the early stages, consigning the Afghan government to the sidelines. The arrangement mirrored the way the Taliban were left out at Bonn in 2001.

The United States and the Taliban did manage to strike a deal: the Doha Accord, which was signed in February 2020. It was supposed to be followed by power-sharing negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. But since the United States had already agreed on a date for withdrawing its forces, the Taliban had no real incentive to bargain further. “It made it very easy for the Taliban just to wait us out,” said Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019.

Hamdullah Mohib, who served as the national security advisor to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani at the time, accused Khalilzad of going behind the Afghan government’s back in his negotiations, calling it colonial behavior.

Khalilzad, in an extended interview for the podcast, rejected these accusations and insisted he kept Ghani and his officials fully informed. But he acknowledged “there was a conscious decision” not to tie America’s withdrawal to an agreement between the Ghani government and the Taliban, because of concerns that any linkage would delay its exit. Ghani’s government struggled to adjust to the new reality created by the agreement—and failed to strike a deal with the Taliban.

For older Afghans who had lived under the first Taliban regime and others who had prospered under the umbrella of the 20-year U.S. occupation, the group’s dramatic return to power in August 2021 was devastating. Many Afghans swarmed the Kabul airport to board evacuation flights. Afghan women braced for a new reality—with severe restrictions imposed on their everyday lives.

Three years later, girls above grade six are still not allowed to attend school. While the international community pressures the Taliban to relax the restrictions, the group chafes at the West’s continued embargo and its refusal to recognize its government.

In the interview, Khalilzad conceded that Afghanistan had been a lesson for the United States in “the limits of what military force can achieve.” Washington had made many mistakes in its war on terror after 9/11, in both Iraq and Afghanistan, he said. “The policies that we pursued, the forces we strengthened, in a significant way contributed to the changes that were inconsistent with our values and, arguably, at least after a certain period, with our interests as well.”
Pakistan
3 dead in grenade attacks on a store selling national flags ahead of Pakistan’s Independence Day (AP)
AP [8/13/2024 9:42 PM, Abdul Sattar and Munir Ahmed, 85570K, Negative]
Suspected militants hurled hand grenades at a house and a store selling Pakistani national flags in the restive southwestern Baluchistan province on Tuesday, killing three people and wounding six others ahead of Pakistan’s 77th independence day.

The separatist Baluch Liberation Army group claimed responsibility for the attacks in the provincial capital of Quetta, days after the group asked shop owners not to sell the flags. It also warned people not to celebrate the holiday on Wednesday, marking the Aug. 14, 1947, date of Pakistan’s independence from British colonial rule.

Wasim Baig, a spokesperson at a government hospital, said the facility had received six injured people and three bodies following the attacks.

Pakistan’s army chief Gen. Asim Munir vowed to defeat militancy in a televised speech at an event that took place at a military academy in the country’s northeast on the eve of Independence Day.

Munir sought cooperation from neighboring Afghanistan against the Pakistani Taliban, a militant group that operates from Afghan soil and that has stepped up attacks across the border in the northwest.

The group also operates in southwestern Baluchistan alongside the long-running insurgency in that region, which also shares a border with Afghanistan.

In the latest violence in the northwest, a group of militants killed four security forces in South Waziristan, a district in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the military said. In a statement, it said troops returned fire, killing six insurgents.
Pakistan’s ex-ISI chief faces court martial after arrest in property case (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [8/13/2024 3:59 PM, Abid Hussain, 20871K, Neutral]
A former chief of Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency faces court martial following his arrest for alleged misconduct in a case related to a private housing scheme.

In a brief statement on Monday, the Pakistani military said it had arrested retired Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed, the former head of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, to “ascertain the correctness” of complaints in a property case and “appropriate disciplinary action” was initiated against him.

The statement said there were “multiple instances of violation” of the Army Act by Hameed after his retirement in December 2022. “The process of Field General Court Martial has been initiated, and Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (Retd) has been taken into military custody,” it added.

The military said it acted against the top officer in accordance with the orders of the Supreme Court, which last year called for an investigation against Hameed after a land development company called Top City filed a petition, alleging Hameed had acquired ownership of some properties along with his brother and had even blackmailed the company’s owner.

In its petition, Top City, which was developing land near the capital, Islamabad, for a private housing project, alleged Hameed was involved in land grab and corruption linked to the housing project, media reports said. The company also accused the former ISI chief of abusing his authority and orchestrating raids at the home and the offices of its owner.

The military is considered the most influential institution in Pakistan and has directly ruled the country for close to 30 years of its nearly eight-decade history.

Despite its oversized presence and allegations of political interference, which violate their oath, no former spy chief has faced court martial before Hameed.

Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow at London’s King’s College and author of a book on the Pakistan military’s “business empire”, told Al Jazeera Hameed’s arrest was akin to “a political nuclear detonation”.

“This step seems to be aimed at restoring discipline within the army and the ISI. Previous cases of court martial of senior officers were on charges of spying. This is different, as we are seeing, for the first time, a former ISI chief accused of harming the country,” she said.

Hameed is considered close to jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who had appointed him to lead the ISI in 2019. Khan replaced him with Lieutenant-General Nadeem Anjum in October 2021, months before the cricketer-turned-politician lost power in April 2022.

Hameed, who was once tipped to become the army chief, took an early retirement in December 2022, days after the current chief, General Asim Munir, took charge. Pakistan’s Army Act prohibits a retired military official from engaging in political activities for two years after retirement.

Kamran Bokhari, senior director at the Washington, DC-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, told Al Jazeera the decision to arrest Hameed was significant because he was, until recently, a “very powerful intel czar”.

“The former ISI chief’s actions must have been threatening to the current army chief Munir, as well as the institution, for the top brass to engage in such a drastic step,” Bokhari said.

“Though designed to manage the unprecedented crisis in civil-military relations, this development risks exacerbating political, economic, and security conditions within the country,” he added.
India
Deadly Landslides in India Made Worse by Climate Change, Study Finds (New York Times)
New York Times [8/13/2024 8:03 PM, Austyn Gaffney, 85570K, Neutral]
A sudden burst of rainfall on July 30 caused a cascade of landslides that buried hundreds of people in the mountainous Kerala region of southern India.

That downpour was 10 percent heavier because of human-caused climate change, according to a study by World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who quantify how climate change can influence extreme weather. Nearly six inches, or 150 millimeters, of rain fell on soils already highly saturated from two months of monsoon and marked the third highest single-day rain event on record for India.

“The devastation in northern Kerala is concerning not only because of the difficult humanitarian situation faced by thousands today, but also because this disaster occurred in a continually warming world,” said Maja Vahlberg, a climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “The increase in climate-change-driven rainfall found in this study is likely to increase the number of landslides that could be triggered in the future.”

In a state that is highly prone to landslides, the Wayanad district is considered the riskiest part. As of Tuesday, at least 231 people had died and 100 remained missing.

The Kerala landslides were the second extreme landslide event in July, following one in Ethiopia that killed 257 people. July was the second-worst month on record, after July 2019, with 95 landslide events that caused 1,167 fatalities, according to data maintained by Dave Petley, the vice-chancellor of the University of Hull. Together, they caused roughly one-third of the more than 3,600 deaths resulting from some 429 fatal landslides recorded this year, Dr. Petley said in an email.

Already, 2024 is an outlier, Dr. Petley posted to The Landslide Blog on Tuesday. He wrote that he could “only speculate on the likely underlying reasons for this very high incidence of fatal landslides,” but “the most likely cause continues to be the exceptionally high global surface temperatures, and the resultant increase in high intensity rainfall events.”

Global warming, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, allows the atmosphere to retain more moisture, which contributes to the severity and intensity of rain. Heavier rain over a longer period of time can waterlog the soil, making a hillside heavier and more susceptible to slippage.

In Kerala, as elsewhere, potential adaptations could include reinforcing high-risk slopes, installing retaining structures, planting vegetation and protecting forest reserves. Other steps include encouraging people and businesses to avoid living in or developing commercial zones around high risk areas.

The study also found that prevention of disasters in hillside communities also required more rigorous risk assessments and improved early warning systems. While the Indian Meteorological Department issued an early warning in the days leading up the landslide, the alert was state-specific, making it difficult to determine which localities would be affected and should evacuate.

“Early warning systems are critical to saving lives,” said Ms. Vahlberg. “The implementation of landslide early warning systems in India is still in its infancy. But in response to recent disasters Kerala has intensified its development and rollout of such systems.”

How land is used and what it is covered with is another factor in landslide risk. Ms. Valberg said the link between landslides and changes in the way land is being used — for instance, when woodland is cleared, or buildings are constructed on a steep slope — required further study. Still, she said, in this case, quarrying for building materials, plus the 62 percent reduction in forest cover in the region, could have contributed to the slippage.

Bill Haneberg, a geological consultant and former Kentucky State Geologist, said land-use changes can contribute to an increased likelihood of landslides, not only from logging or quarrying but from agriculture and mining. A study he published this summer showed that during catastrophic flooding in Kentucky in 2022 that killed as many as 45 people, small tributaries immediately adjacent to mountaintop-removal coal mines had up to 150 percent more water than there might have been without mining.

“The results of that model suggest that mining could have had a very substantial effect on the amount of water that was contributed to the flood,” Dr. Haneberg said. If the landscape had been more intact, he added, the land and vegetation would have been able to absorb and intercept about half the rainfall.

Landslides and debris flows can often occur during or just after flooding, but typically get less attention than the flood itself. After the 2022 Kentucky floods, a Kentucky Geologic Society study determined that more than 1,000 landslides were triggered by six days of rain. According to Dr. Haneberg, this is likely a severe undercount, since slips were only counted from public roads, not from private lands or other places.

Dr. Haneberg said geologists have the technology and expertise to illustrate landslide hazard zones and save lives, but identifying these areas can be unpopular, because they can effect communities and property values.

“It’s a matter of politics that there are always people who think it’ll be in their best interest not to delineate or identify these hazardous areas,” he said. “It’s not like we don’t understand the problem or have the technology. We just don’t do it.”
Climate change intensified rain that caused deadly Indian landslides, study finds (Reuters)
Reuters [8/13/2024 7:04 PM, Sakshi Dayal, 42991K, Negative]
Heavy rain made about 10% stronger by human-caused climate change triggered the landslides that killed more than 200 people in India’s southern state of Kerala last month, a team of international scientists has concluded.

The landslides on July 30 in the coastal state’s Wayanad region were its worst disaster since 2018, when floods killed more than 400 people.

The study, released on Wednesday by the World Weather Attribution group, which examines the role of climate change in extreme weather, found that single-day monsoon downpours in Wayanad have become 10% heavier because of climate change.

Kerala’s Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had blamed unexpectedly heavy rainfall for the casualties, saying the region received 572 millimetres (23 inches) of rain over the preceding 48 hours, more than double the 204 millimetres (8 inches) forecast.

One-day bursts of rain in Kerala will become another 4% heavier if the world does not move away from fossil fuels and global warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius, the study said.

"The increase in climate change-driven rainfall found in this study is likely to increase the potential number of landslides that could be triggered in the future," it said.

Minimising deforestation and quarrying, reinforcing susceptible slopes, and building retaining structures to protect vulnerable areas were some of the other measures it recommended to prevent similar disasters in future.

Some experts told Reuters earlier this month that heavy rainfall in the fortnight before the landslides, which softened the soil, as well as over-development and unchecked tourism in the state may also have been contributing factors.

"In addition to mitigation, adaptation is critical", said Maja Vahlberg, one of the authors of the study, calling for more stringent assessment of landslides and better early warning and evacuation systems.

The landslides were the latest in a series of weather-related calamities in India that some experts have linked to climate change, from soaring temperatures and long heatwaves to torrential rains and cyclones.

The World Weather Attribution group concluded in a report in May that extreme temperatures in Asia the preceding month were made worse by human-driven climate change.
India: Hate Speech Fueled Modi’s Election Campaign (Human Rights Watch)
Human Rights Watch [8/14/2024 12:00 AM, Staff, 2.1M, Negative]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2024 electoral campaign frequently used hate speech against Muslims and other minorities, Human Rights Watch said today. The leadership of Modi’s Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) repeatedly made statements inciting discrimination, hostility, and violence against marginalized groups during his campaign to win his third consecutive term of office, which began on June 9.

Several BJP state governments have demolished Muslims’ homes, businesses, and places of worship without due process and carried out other unlawful practices, which have continued since the election. These demolitions are often carried out as apparent collective punishment against the Muslim community for communal clashes or dissent, and BJP officials have dubbed them “bulldozer justice.” Violence against religious minorities has also continued, with at least 28 reported attacks across the country, resulting in the deaths of 12 Muslim men and a Christian woman.

“Indian Prime Minister Modi and BJP leaders made blatantly false claims in their campaign speeches against Muslims and other minority groups,” said Elaine Pearson, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “These inflammatory speeches, amid a decade of attacks and discrimination against minorities under the Modi administration, have further normalized abuses against Muslims, Christians, and others.”

Human Rights Watch analyzed all 173 campaign speeches by Modi after the election code of conduct took effect on March 16. The code forbids appealing to “communal feelings for securing votes.” In at least 110 speeches, Modi made Islamophobic remarks apparently intended to undermine the political opposition, which he said only promoted Muslim rights, and to foster fear among the majority Hindu community through disinformation.

Modi has rejected allegations of anti-Muslim bias, pointing to India’s democratic, secular, and diversity standards. In interviews with journalists, he said of his party and its affiliated groups: “We are not against Muslims. That is not our domain.” When asked about anti-Muslim speeches during the campaign, he responded: “The day I start talking about Hindu-Muslim [in politics], I will be unfit for public life. I will not do Hindu-Muslim. That is my resolve.”

However, during the campaign, Modi regularly raised fears among Hindus through false claims that their faith, their places of worship, their wealth, their land, and the safety of girls and women in their community would be under threat from Muslims if the opposition parties came to power.

He repeatedly described Muslims as “infiltrators” and claimed Muslims had “more children” than other communities, raising the specter that Hindus—about 80 percent of the population—will become a minority in India.

In a speech on May 14 in Koderma, Jharkhand, Modi said that “the idols of our gods are being destroyed” and that “these infiltrators [Muslims] have threatened the security of our sisters and daughters.”

In a May 17 speech in Barabanki, Uttar Pradesh, he made false claims that the political opposition would harm the newly opened Ram Temple, controversially built atop a razed historical mosque at Ayodhya. He said that if the opposition alliance came to power, “they will again send Ram Lalla [the Hindu deity Lord Ram] to the tent and they will run a bulldozer over the temple.”

On May 7, in a speech in Dhar, Madhya Pradesh, he falsely said that the opposition Congress Party “intends to give priority to Muslims even in sports. So, Congress will decide who will make the Indian cricket team on the basis of religion.”

Since Modi’s BJP government first took office in 2014, its discriminatory policies and anti-Muslim speeches by BJP leaders have incited Hindu nationalist violence. The authorities have failed to take adequate action against those responsible, fostering a culture of impunity that has fueled further abuses. At the same time, the authorities have often acted against victims of the violence and sought to persecute critics of the government through politically motivated prosecutions.

India is a party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which prohibits “advocacy of national, racial or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility or violence.” Government officials and others who effectively wield governmental authority have a duty not to engage in speech advocating discrimination, hostility, or violence toward any individual or social group, Human Rights Watch said. Those in a position of governmental authority should speak out to dissuade others from engaging in discriminatory conduct.

The Modi government’s actions have violated India’s obligations under international human rights law that prohibit discrimination based on race, ethnicity, or religion and require the government to ensure equal protection of the law to everyone. The government is also obligated to protect religious and other minority populations and to fully and fairly prosecute those responsible for discrimination and violence against them, Human Rights Watch said.

“The Indian government’s claims of plurality and being the ‘mother of democracy’ ring hollow in the face of its abusive anti-minority actions,” Pearson said. “The new Modi government needs to reverse its discriminatory policies, act on violence against minorities, and ensure justice for those affected.”

BJP Hate Speech and the Election Commission’s Failure to Address It
Prime Minister Modi repeatedly claimed the opposition political parties intended to “wipe out Hindu faith from the country.” In a May 2 speech in Junagadh, Gujarat, he said:

Congress [Party] is not contesting these elections for democracy, but it’s fighting these elections against Lord Ram. … I want to ask you, if Lord Ram loses, who wins? ... It was similar thinking that led the Mughals to destroy the Ram temple 500 years ago and that led them to raze our Somnath temple.

He said in a campaign speech on May 10, in Mahbubnagar, Telangana: “Congress wants to make Hindus second-class citizens in their own country. Is this why they are calling for vote jihad?”

Modi falsely claimed that the opposition parties planned to take away benefits guaranteed by the constitution to historically marginalized communities such as Dalits, Adivasis, and other groups, and give them instead to Muslims. He also asserted without basis that if the Congress Party came to power, it would take away the wealth and assets of other communities and redistribute them among Muslims. In a May 7 speech in Dhar, Madhya Pradesh, he said, “If Congress has its way, it would say that the first right to live in India belongs to its vote bank [Muslims]. … Congress will give quota even in government contracts on the basis of religion.”

Modi often implied that Muslims endangered the safety of girls and women in the country and claimed that the interests of Congress and opposition parties were aligned with Pakistan and “terrorists.”

On May 5, in Dhaurahra, Uttar Pradesh, Modi said the opposition parties constrained the country’s investigative agencies and did not allow them to take action against terrorism: “After all, who are they doing it all for? There’s only one answer: for their vote bank [Muslims] to appease them.” On May 14, in Koderma, Jharkhand, a state governed by an opposition party, he said:

It has become difficult to follow our faith in Jharkhand today. The idols of our gods are being destroyed. Infiltrators with a jihadi mindset are ganging up and attacking, but the Jharkhand government is looking away and is supporting them from afar. These infiltrators have threatened the security of our sisters and daughters.

On May 28, in Dumka, Jharkhand, he stated:

In many areas today, the Adivasi [Indigenous] population is rapidly declining while the number of infiltrators is increasing. Are the infiltrators not occupying Adivasi lands? Have our Adivasi daughters not been targeted by infiltrators? Our daughters’ safety is threatened, is it not? Their lives are in danger, they are being murdered, an Adivasi daughter is burned alive, another Adivasi daughter’s voice is taken away. Who are these people targeting Adivasi daughters?

Several other BJP leaders, including Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and the former minister for information and broadcasting, Anurag Thakur, made speeches pitting Hindus against Muslims, fueling hatred and insecurity among the Hindu population.

The BJP also published animated videos vilifying Muslims and spreading disinformation during the campaign. On April 30, the BJP’s official account on Instagram posted a video that reportedly received 1.6 million views before it was taken down. The video claimed that the Congress Party was empowering people from the community that infiltrated India and robbed it of its riches: “Congress Party’s manifesto is nothing but the [Pakistani] Muslim League’s ideology in disguise. If you are a non-Muslim, Congress will snatch your wealth and distribute it to Muslims. Narendra Modi knows of this evil plan. Only he has the strength to stop it.”

On May 4, the BJP’s official account in Karnataka state posted another anti-Muslim animated video that was also taken down after many users complained that it violated the platform’s hate speech policy. After receiving numerous complaints about the video, on May 7, the Election Commission finally wrote to X, formerly Twitter, where the video was also posted, asking them to take the video down.

After Modi’s speech on April 21 in Banswara, Rajasthan, thousands of voters wrote to the Election Commission and asked it to censure the prime minister for violating the code of conduct by “instigating and aggravating hatred in the Hindus against Muslims.” Ordinary voters and several opposition politicians also submitted written complaints about speeches that Modi and other top BJP leaders had made.

However, the Election Commission failed to take adequate action to respond to these violations, Human Rights Watch said. Despite finding that Modi and others had violated the guidelines, the commission only wrote to the office of the BJP president, without naming the prime minister, and asked that the BJP and its “star campaigners” refrain from making speeches along religious or communal lines. These directions did not deter Modi, who continued to make speeches inciting hate throughout the campaign period.

The Election Commission defended allegations of bias, saying: “We deliberately decided—this is such a huge nation—that the top two people in both the parties [BJP and Congress] we did not touch. Both party presidents we touched equally.” The Election Commission also sent nearly identical letters to the office of the Congress Party president.

Government Authorities Targeting Muslims Since the Elections
Uttar Pradesh BJP Chief Minister Adityanath, in a campaign speech on May 30 in Himachal Pradesh, made false claims that the opposition Congress party, inspired by the 17th century Mughal emperor Aurangzeb, wanted to impose Sharia, or Islamic law, in the country, and warned that those who follow Aurangzeb’s path will be “buried by bulldozers.”

On June 15, Madhya Pradesh authorities demolished without due process 11 Muslim houses in the Adivasi-dominated Mandla district, saying they had found beef in their refrigerators, as well as animal hides and skeletal remains of cattle. While the authorities justified the demolitions saying the houses had been illegally built on government land, news reports indicated that 16 other houses in the same neighborhood, which authorities acknowledged were also illegal but where no rumored beef was recovered, remained standing. “We demolished the homes where beef was found and left the others alone for now. … We were taking action against cattle smugglers,” a police official told the Indian Express.

On June 25, protests erupted in Mangolpuri in northwest Delhi after authorities demolished portions of a mosque, claiming it was illegal. The demolition came just five days after authorities razed another historic mosque, Jannatul Firdaus, in Delhi’s Bawana area. The mosque’s caretakers alleged that the authorities demolished it without any prior notice or warning.

In July, BJP governments in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand states issued directives requiring all food sellers along the route of an annual Hindu pilgrimage to display the names and identities of their owners and employees. The state governments claimed it was to ensure the devotees could make an “informed choice” regarding the food they eat during the pilgrimage keeping in mind their “religious sentiments.”

However, on July 22, the Supreme Court ordered an interim stay on the decision, saying that while it is permissible for authorities to ensure that the pilgrims are served “vegetarian food conforming to their preferences,” compelling owners to display “names and address, also of their staff, can hardly achieve [the] intended objective.” The court added that if the directive is permitted to be enforced, “it will infringe upon the secular character of the Republic of India.”

Recent Attacks Against Religious and Other Minorities

Attacks by Hindu mobs and others against Muslims and other religious minorities have continued since the election campaign period.

On June 7, attackers killed three Muslim men—Saddam Qureshi, 23; Chand Miya Khan, 23; and Guddu Khan, 35—who were transporting cattle in Raipur district, Chhattisgarh state. Family members allege that Hindu vigilantes claiming to be a “cow protection” group killed the men and then threw them off a bridge. Police charges stated that men in three cars chased the Muslim men’s truck for 33 miles and hurled spikes and stones until they forced the truck to stop at a bridge by damaging one of its tires. The three Muslims, terrified, jumped off the bridge and died.

Local Hindu men in Uttar Pradesh’s Aligarh district on June 18 allegedly beat to death Mohammed Farid, a 35-year-old Muslim man. Police said the Hindu attackers suspected Farid of attempted theft at a Hindu trader’s house. After the police arrested six men for murder, a BJP lawmaker joined local Hindu community members to defend the accused, demanding their release and pressing the police not to take action against others named in the case. Eleven days after the killing, the police filed a case against the deceased, his brother and five others on charges of dacoity (banditry) and sexually assaulting a woman.

On June 22, a local Hindu mob in Chikhodra village in Gujarat allegedly beat to death Salman Vohra, 30, while he attended a cricket match. Local activists alleged that the village chief, the son of the local BJP lawmaker, and his cousin were involved in the killing. The activists have requested that the case be transferred to another jurisdiction to prevent political interference.

During the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha in June, Hindu mobs harassed and attacked Muslims, including on suspicions of slaughtering cattle. On June 15, a mob attacked people inside a madrassa, an Islamic school, in Medak, Telangana, alleging that they had slaughtered animals during the Eid celebrations.

On June 16, members of a “cow protection” group allegedly barged into a Muslim home in Khordha town in Odisha and seized all the family’s meat and their refrigerator, suspecting that they were storing beef. On June 18, in Faridabad, Haryana, vigilantes reportedly attacked a Muslim butcher shop owner and two Hindu men who were there to buy chicken.

On June 19, a Hindu mob in Pakri village in Uttar Pradesh attacked a motor rickshaw driver for carrying meat, saying a particular road could not be used to transport meat. On the same day, a mob attacked a Muslim-owned shop in front of the police in Himachal Pradesh state, after the owner allegedly shared a picture of a buffalo sacrifice on his WhatsApp status.

During this period, Hindu men were implicated in attacks on Christians, Dalits, and Sikhs in several parts of the country.

A Decade of BJP Hindu Nationalist Hate Speech

There has been a surge in anti-Muslim hate speech in India since the Modi administration first took office in 2014.

During the 2014 national election campaign, Modi repeatedly called for the protection of cows, raising the specter of a “pink revolution” by the previous government that he claimed had endangered cows and other cattle to export meat. After coming to power, several BJP leaders made statements that spurred a violent vigilante campaign against beef consumption and those deemed linked to it.

This led to self-appointed “cow protection” groups springing up across the country, many claiming to be affiliated with militant Hindu groups with ties to the BJP. Between May 2015 and December 2018, at least 44 people—36 of them Muslims—were killed across 12 states. Over that same period, about 280 people were injured in more than 100 incidents across 20 states. The attacks have continued, with several more killed since then.

Following widespread peaceful protests across the country against the government’s discriminatory Citizenship Amendment Act in December 2019, some BJP leaders derided the protesters, or more dangerously called them anti-national and pro-Pakistan. Others led a chant to “shoot the traitors,” inciting violence. Government supporters twice showed up at protest sites with guns to use against protesters.

On January 30, 2020, a 17-year-old with a gun first threatened protesters outside Jamia Millia Islamia university in Delhi, and then opened fire in the presence of police, injuring a student. Two days later, a man fired two shots in the air near a protest site at Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh.

Since 2014, the BJP has denounced what it has called “love jihad,” a baseless theory claiming that Muslim men lure Hindu women into marriages to convert them to Islam. This has led several states to pass anti-conversion laws, which are used against Muslim men who marry Hindu women. Hindu nationalist groups have beaten Muslim men in interfaith relationships, harassed them, and filed cases under these laws against them.

Leaders from the BJP and affiliated Hindu nationalist groups have made statements that led to numerous mob attacks on churches in the last decade. In many cases, pastors have been beaten, prevented from holding religious meetings, and accused under anti-conversion laws, and churches have been vandalized.

After hundreds of thousands of farmers of various faiths began protesting against the government’s new farm laws in November 2020, senior BJP leaders, their supporters on social media, and pro-government media began blaming the Sikhs. They accused Sikhs of having a “Khalistani” agenda, a reference to a Sikh separatist insurgency in Punjab in the 1980s and 1990s. On February 8, 2021, Modi spoke in parliament, describing people participating in various peaceful protests as “parasites.”

Punjab’s opposition politicians said that anti-Sikh statements by BJP leaders led to a June 10 attack by two men on a Sikh man, whom they called Khalistani, in Haryana’s Kaithal district. “This is the direct consequence of the politics of hate and polarization of various groups that has come to afflict the country over the past decade,” Punjab’s former deputy chief minister posted on X.

Since 2017, an anti-Rohingya campaign by Hindu nationalist groups who claim that Rohingya Muslim refugees are “terrorists” has incited vigilante-style violence, including arson attacks on the homes of Rohingya in Jammu and Delhi. In 2017, the Indian government called Rohingya refugees a “threat to national security.”

The BJP minister of state for home affairs said: “As far as we are concerned, they are all illegal immigrants. They have no basis to live here. Anybody who is an illegal migrant will be deported.” In 2018, following a fire in a Rohingya settlement in Delhi that burned at least 50 homes, a leader from the BJP youth wing applauded the action on Twitter, saying: “Well done by our heroes … Yes we burnt the houses of Rohingya terrorists.”

Following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, Indian authorities contributed to a surge in anti-Muslim hate speech and violence. After authorities announced that they found a large number of coronavirus cases among Muslims who had attended a mass religious congregation in Delhi, some BJP leaders called the meeting a “Talibani crime” and “CoronaTerrorism,” and some mainstream media used the term “CoronaJihad,” with the hashtag going viral on social media.

Soon, social media and WhatsApp groups were flooded by calls for social and economic boycotts of Muslims. There were numerous physical attacks on Muslims, including volunteers distributing relief material, amid falsehoods accusing them of spreading the virus deliberately.
Indian soldiers drill for counterinsurgency amid rise in rebel attacks in Kashmir (AP)
AP [8/14/2024 2:34 AM, Channi Anand, 456K, Neutral]
In the remote Himalayas, tens of thousands of Indian soldiers maintain a tight vigil along the highly militarized Line of Control that divides Kashmir region between India and Pakistan. The terrain is tough and the weather is harsh as the soldiers go through counterinsurgency drills and tactical exercises following months of deadly rebel attacks in the disputed region.

Authorities say violence in the region has reduced significantly since 2019, when the Indian government stripped Kashmir of semiautonomy and brought it under direct federal control.

But in recent months, there has been a sharp rise in militant attacks on government forces, particularly in parts of Hindu-dominated southern Jammu area that experienced relative peace during the three decades of armed rebellion against New Delhi’s rule. The string of attacks killed 14 soldiers last month, according to officials, stoking fears of militancy returning to the area.

The civilian death toll in Jammu has already reached 12 in the first six months this year, equaling the toll for entire previous year.

In response, India’s military has intensified its patrols and counterinsurgency operations. It’s deployed additional troops, including hundreds from the special forces, and set up new posts and camps. It’s also brought in drones, helicopters and sniffer dogs to combat militants in the rugged terrain.

Militants in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir have been fighting New Delhi’s rule since 1989.

India insists the miltants are terrorists sponsored by Pakistan. Pakistan denies the charge, and most Kashmiris consider it a legitimate freedom struggle. Tens of thousands of civilians, rebels and government forces have been killed in the conflict.

Both India and its archrival Pakistan claim Kashmir in its entirety, which has been divided between them since the two fought a war over the territory shortly after gaining independence from British colonization in August 1947.

On Wednesday, Pakistan celebrated its 77th independence day, while India is marking its on Thursday.
The Rape and Murder of a Medic Leads to Nationwide Physician Strike Across India (Time)
Time [8/13/2024 11:27 AM, Anna Gordon, 21766K, Negative]
Nearly 300,000 resident doctors of government hospitals in India have been on strike since Monday after a 31-year-old resident trainee doctor was raped and murdered while working in Kolkata, the capital of India’s West Bengal state. As a result, elective and non-emergency procedures have been halted.

Her body was found last Friday in a seminar room at RG Kar Medical College and Hospital, where she worked. A suspect has since been arrested, according to reports.

“This heartbreaking incident starkly highlights the glaring deficiencies in security within our medical institutions across the nation,” the Federation of Resident Doctors Association India (FORDA) said in a statement posted on X.

In the aftermath of the incident, FORDA has demanded that the government pass the Central Protection Act for Doctors, which they say will ensure the safety of health care workers across the country by creating a uniform definition of what violence entails and establishing clear penalties for perpetrators. FORDA is demanding that a committee be established to help expedite the ratification of the law and an immediate, transparent, and impartial investigation into the crime.

Currently, 25 out of India’s 28 states have laws in place to protect doctors and healthcare workers from violence, according to the Indian Medical Association. However, advocates say that the laws are mostly ineffective and that a central law passed by the national government would be more likely to be enforced. The differences many doctors say they still experience violence at the workplace, usually caused by patients and their relatives. A 2015 survey conducted by the Indian Medical Association found that 75% of doctors had experienced some form of violence while on the job. R.V. Asokan, the president of the National Indian Medical Association, told the Indian television station NDTV, that he is especially worried about protection for female doctors who may be more vulnerable to sexual assault and harrassment.

“There is a need for an overall comprehensive relook at the whole system and the amenities provided,” R.V. Asokan, the president of the National Indian Medical Association, told the Indian television station NDTV. He also called for the installation of CCTV cameras in health care facilities and said that hospitals across the country should be declared “safe zones.” He said these actions were especially important as increasing numbers of women enroll in medical school in India.

India struggles with high rates of violence against women, with over 31,000 rapes reported in 2022. Experts say that the true rate is likely much higher, as many women do not report due to fear of reprisal and stigma. Several high profile rape cases have led to protests across the country in recent years, with activists demanding safer conditions for women. Most infamous of all these cases was a 2012 a gang rape of a physiotherapy student on a bus, which was condemned around the world. The incident led to legislative changes in how India prosecutes sexual assault cases and more severe punishments for perpetrators.
NSB
Bangladesh’s ex-Premier Hasina calls for probe into killings during unrest that led to her ouster (AP)
AP [8/13/2024 5:54 PM, Julhas Alam, 85570K, Negative]
Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina called on Tuesday from self-exile in India for an investigation into those responsible for the killings of students and others during weeks of violent protests that prompted her ouster.

Hasina, who stepped down and fled Bangladesh on Aug. 5 after student activists led an uprising against her government, is herself accused of responsibility for much of the deadly violence, and activists have demanded that she be put on trial.

In a statement posted on the social media platform X by her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, Hasina said she wanted an investigation and demanded “punishment for those responsible for the killings and sabotage.” It was her first public statement since leaving Bangladesh.

More than 300 people were killed in unrest that started in July with protests against a quota system for government jobs that later morphed into a movement against what was considered Hasina’s increasingly autocratic administration. The uprising eventually forced Hasina to leave office and flee to India, ending her 15-year rule.

Some of the violence pitted student activists against pro-government student and youth groups and police, and many of those who died were among the student activists. However, Hasina’s statement underlined that police officers, members of her Awami League political party, bystanders and others also were victims of what she described as “terrorist aggression.” She previously has blamed opposition parties for stoking the unrest.

Earlier Tuesday, police launched a murder investigation in what was expected to be the first of several cases accusing Hasina and other government officials of responsibility for deaths during the violence.

Hasina’s statement came as the country’s interim government on Tuesday canceled a public holiday that she had declared for Thursday to mark the death of her father, Bangladesh’s independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. He was killed along with most of his family in 1975 in a military coup. Hasina and her younger sister were out of the country at the time.

The cancellation came at the request of at least seven political parties, including the main previous opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. After Hasina’s downfall last week, demonstrators set fire to her father’s house, now a museum, in Dhaka.

Despite all that, Hasina urged people in her statement to observe the holiday “with proper dignity.”

The case launched Tuesday involved the killing of a grocery shop owner in July. S.M. Amir Hamza, described as a “well-wisher” of grocery store owner Abu Sayeed, filed the case at the court of Dhaka Metropolitan Magistrate Rajesh Chowdhury. Hamza said Sayeed was killed on July 19 amid clashes during the uprising, and that he filed the case because Sayeed’s family did not have the capacity to seek justice.

Hasina was named as a suspect in the petition, along with six other people, including former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan, the Awami League party’s General Secretary Obaidul Quader and top police officials.

The Dhaka court asked the Mohammadpur Police Station to register the case. Police will now investigate the case and file a report to the court.

On Tuesday, police arrested two former Bangladesh lawmakers and close Hasina associates over the July 16 killing of a 26-year-old college student. The parliament was dissolved following Hasina’s ouster.

Former Law Minister Anisul Huq and Hasina’s private industry affairs advisor and prominent businessman Salman F. Rahman were arrested at a riverport in the city as they were trying to flee the country, said Mainul Hasan, chief of the Dhaka police.

An interim government is now running the country, with Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel peace laureate, sworn in as interim leader. Sixteen people, including two student protest leaders and others drawn mainly from civil society, have been included in his interim Cabinet.

The new Cabinet members were chosen after talks between student leaders, civil society representatives and the military.

Hasina and her party’s many top leaders have either gone into hiding or have been barred from leaving the country.

Peaceful protests by students began in July against a quota system for government jobs that critics said favored people with connections to Hasina’s party.

Hasina, 76, was elected to a fourth consecutive term in January, but the vote was boycotted by her main opponents, with thousands of opposition activists detained beforehand. The U.S. and U.K. denounced the result as not credible. Hasina’s critics say her administration increasingly was marked by human rights abuses and corruption.

The chaos on Bangladesh’s streets continued after her resignation. Dozens of police officers were killed, prompting police to stop working across the country. Police officers have gradually returned to work.
Former Bangladesh PM Hasina demands probe into July ‘killings and vandalism’ (Reuters)
Reuters [8/13/2024 3:31 PM, Ruma Paul and Maksud Un Nabi, 42991K, Negative]
Former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina called on Tuesday for action against those involved in "killings and vandalism" in the country last month, her first comments since violent protests forced her to flee to India.

Around 300 people died in the demonstrations that began as protests against employment quotas but spiralled into a movement seeking Hasina’s overthrow.

Hasina’s statement, issued on X through her son, came hours after a court ordered a probe into her role in the death of a grocery shop owner during the protests.

Many people died "in the name of revolution" in July, Hasina said.

"I demand that those involved in these killings and vandalism be properly investigated and the culprits be identified and punished accordingly," she said.

Other members of her government also face criminal action, with former law minister Anisul Huq and Hasina’s adviser Salman F Rahman arrested for allegedly "instigating" the murder of two people, police said on Tuesday.

The case against Hasina - the first following the protests - was filed by Amir Hamza and accepted by Dhaka’s chief metropolitan magistrate’s court after a hearing, Hamza’s lawyer Anwarul Islam said, adding that police have been ordered to investigate.

Six others accused in the case include Obaidul Quader, the general secretary of Hasina’s Awami League party, former Interior Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal and senior police officials.

Hamza alleged grocer Abu Saeed was hit by a bullet while crossing the street on July 19 as police fired on protesters in Dhaka’s Mohammadpur area.

The complainant blamed Hasina, who had called for strong action to quell the violence, for the shooting.

Hamza said he was not related to Saeed but approached the court because Saeed’s family could not afford to file the case.

"I am the first ordinary citizen who showed the courage to take this legal step against Sheikh Hasina for her crimes. I will see the case to an end," Hamza told Reuters.

Hasina could not be immediately reached for comment. Quader’s phone was switched off, while Kamal did not answer his phone when Reuters tried to reach him.

Bangladeshi student leader Nahid Islam, now part of the interim government, said recently that Hasina must face trial for the killings during her term.

Hasina plans to return to Bangladesh when the caretaker government decides on holding elections, her son has said.
Ousted Bangladesh PM urges supporters to make public show of strength (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [8/13/2024 8:23 AM, Sean Gleeson and Mohammad Mazed, 85570K, Negative]
Ousted Bangladeshi premier Sheikh Hasina on Tuesday asked supporters to make a public show of strength later this week, hours after a court ruled that a murder probe against her linked to last month’s unrest could proceed.

Hasina, 76, fled by helicopter last week to neighbouring India, where she remains, as protesters flooded Dhaka’s streets in a dramatic end to her iron-fisted 15-year rule.

More than 450 people were killed during the weeks of unrest leading up to her toppling, and members of her Awami League party have since gone to ground.

Thursday marks the anniversary of the 1975 assassination of her father, independence hero Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, during a military coup -- a date her government had declared a national holiday.

"I appeal to you to observe the National Day of Mourning on August 15 with due respect and solemnity," she said in a written statement given to journalists through her US-based son.

She asked supporters to "pray for the salvation of all souls by offering floral garlands and praying" at her childhood home in the capital Dhaka.

The landmark was until recently a museum to her father, but it was torched and vandalised by a mob hours after her fall.

The caretaker administration now running Bangladesh had said earlier in the evening that it had cancelled observance of the politically charged holiday.

Tuesday’s statement was Hasina’s first public comment since her resignation.

She also demanded an investigation into killings and other criminal acts during the unrest that forced her out of office, with the culprits to be "identified and punished".

Police weaponry was the cause of most deaths during the protests, according to police and hospital figures previously gathered by AFP.

Hasina’s call came hours after a court in Dhaka opened a murder investigation into her, two top Awami League figures and four senior police officers.

The case accuses the seven of responsibility for the death of a grocery store owner who was shot dead on July 19 as police violently suppressed protests.

The interim government, led by 84-year-old Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, signalled it would not interfere with the investigation.

"We all know that the prime accused of the case... is not in the country," environment minister Syeda Rizwana Hasan told journalists.

"The case will take its normal course," she added. "Justice here in Bangladesh is pretty slow-paced... we can try to ensure that no delay takes place in the investigation."

Hasan also confirmed the detention of two top figures from Hasina’s government, unrelated to the murder probe.

Law minister Anisul Huq and business adviser Salman Rahman "have been arrested", she said, without giving further detail.

Local media reports said the duo had unsuccessfully attempted to flee Dhaka by boat.

Hasina’s government was accused of widespread human rights abuses, including the extrajudicial killing of thousands of her political opponents.

Yunus returned from Europe three days after Hasina’s ouster to head a temporary administration facing the monumental challenge of steering democratic reforms.

The 84-year-old won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his pioneering work in microfinance, and is credited with helping millions of Bangladeshis out of grinding poverty.

He took office as "chief adviser" to a caretaker administration -- all fellow civilians bar home minister Sakhawat Hossain, a retired brigadier general -- and has said he wants to hold elections "within a few months".

Sakhawat said Monday that the government had no intention of banning Hasina’s Awami League, which played a pivotal role in the country’s independence movement.

"The party has made many contributions to Bangladesh -- we don’t deny this," he told reporters.

"When the election comes, (they should) contest the elections."

The new administration has stressed it wants to put Bangladesh on a different path.

Its foreign minister Touhid Hossain told a briefing of more than 60 foreign diplomats late Monday it was "very serious about human rights", and vowed not to "allow any violence or damages to occur".

"All those committing such crimes will be investigated," he said.

The unrest and political change have also shaken Bangladesh’s critical garment industry, which accounts for around 85 percent of its $55 billion in annual exports, but he assured diplomats that foreign investments would be protected.

"This is a temporary crisis," Touhid added. "Everything will come back in the right way, as competent people are in charge."
Bangladesh’s Exporting Networks Are Slowly Returning to Normal (Wall Street Journal)
Wall Street Journal [8/13/2024 2:01 PM, Liz Young, 810K, Positive]
Shipping and logistics companies in Bangladesh are slowly restoring services to networks fractured during violent protests and political upheaval that rocked the country and its apparel exporting sector.

Containers have stacked up at the South Asian nation’s main port, vessels have backed up at the gateway and airfreight shipments have been pushed back by several days, according to Everstream Analytics, a global risk management firm.

Koray Köse, chief industry officer at Everstream, said retailers should anticipate orders out of Bangladesh will be delayed by two to six weeks.

The delays will largely affect merchandise meant for the winter and spring seasons, giving retailers time to adjust, Köse said. “There is time to think about order replacements and accelerations,” he said.

The Port of Chittagong, the largest seaport in Bangladesh, was moving about 2,300 containers measured in 20-foot equivalent units daily as of Aug. 8, far below its typical capacity of 4,000 containers, Everstream said.

The port had more than 44,000 containers in its yard, compared with the 30,000 to 32,000 containers it normally stores. The average waiting time for vessels looking to unload at the port rose to nearly three days at the start of August from about 1 ½ days as of mid-July, according to Everstream.

Maersk Line last week said container movement through Chittagong continued to be slow, with fewer officials on site at the port.

U.S. and Europe-bound airfreight shipments are taking about 10 days on average, up from a typical one to two days for express shipments and three to five days for general airfreight, after closures at the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka, Everstream said.

Airfreight data provider WorldACD said spot rates for air transport from Bangladesh to Europe were up 173% in the week ended Aug. 4 compared with the same week last year “as the disruptions to air services and customs clearance services in the country added to an already-constrained capacity market.”

The turmoil in Bangladesh adds to growing supply-chain disruptions companies face worldwide amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index reached its highest level of the year in July.

Protests erupted in Bangladesh last month, triggered by anger over grim employment prospects. Clashes left more than 300 dead and some factories in Dhaka that supply major Western retail brands closed for a time.

The unrest has largely faded since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned on Aug. 5 and fled the country.

Because of long lead times typical with apparel orders, brands say they expect to absorb the impact of disruptions to supplier operations in their supply chains heading into the fall peak shopping season for retailers.

VF, which owns brands including North Face and Vans, said some of its operations have been disrupted in Bangladesh, where about 15% of its production is based. Chief Executive Bracken Darrell said on an Aug. 6 earnings call he expected the situation to improve and that orders could be shifted elsewhere if necessary.

Clothing maker Gildan Activewear, which has been setting up a new manufacturing plant in Bangladesh, said on Aug. 1 its operations had been down for a couple of days but production had returned to normal.
Bangladesh Names Former IMF Official as Central Bank Governor (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [8/13/2024 1:17 PM, Arun Devnath, 27296K, Negative]
Bangladesh’s interim government appointed a former official of the International Monetary Fund as the new central bank governor, bringing firepower to the team negotiating with the multilateral lender for more funds to prevent foreign reserves from dwindling further.

Ahsan H. Mansur will lead Bangladesh Bank, according to a statement from the finance ministry Tuesday night. Mansur, 72, has worked with the IMF for almost three decades, including serving as a senior representative to Pakistan. He replaces Abdur Rouf Talukder, who was forced to resign by protesters after former prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country.

Bangladesh is in a precarious position with its falling foreign exchange reserves. It means that the negotiations between the interim government and creditors and the IMF for more money beyond a $4.7 billion loan program will take a renewed urgency.

Reserves have dropped more than a billion dollars to $20.5 billion in end-July during the unrest and curfews that shuttered much of the economy. Inflation is also a concern for the South Asian country.

“Food inflation is very volatile,” Mansur told Bloomberg News ahead of his appointment. “My main goal will be to target non-food inflation.”

Mansur, who co-founded a think-tank in Dhaka, is a known critic of the central bank under Hasina’s regime. He has called for reforms in the financial sector to reduce loan defaults and said the South Asian country needs to have tax changes and flexible exchange rates to support the economy.

His predecessor Talukder did introduce greater flexibility for market interest rates and currency management. However, he was often criticized for failing to address governance issues in the banking sector.

Mansur will need to help Bangladesh meet conditions from the IMF to disburse funds from the existing loan program. So far, some $2.2 billion has been released to the country.
Students who ousted Hasina are helping lead Bangladesh, from the streets to the ministries (AP)
AP [8/14/2024 1:54 AM, Krutika Pathi and Shonal Ganguly, 456K, Neutral]
Within a week of unseating Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister, the students who drove out Sheikh Hasina were directing Dhaka’s traffic.

Decked out in neon vests, their university IDs slung around their necks, they clutch sticks and umbrellas to wave cars this way and that, filling the void after police went on strike. They stopped drivers, checking their licenses and telling them off for not wearing their seatbelts. Some opened trunks of cars they deemed could belong to officials from the previous government, looking for smuggled riches.

Students have not only manned roads, two who led the charge against Hasina are settling into the interim government they ushered in just a few days after she resigned and fled to India in a military helicopter.

Before Hasina was toppled by the student movement with astonishing speed, she was seen as one of the country’s most unshakeable leaders. In total, she governed for more than 20 years, most recently winning four straight terms as her rule became ever more autocratic.

The question now is what comes next in a country still reeling from the violence surrounding her removal that left hundreds dead. The students hope they can restore peace and democracy and create a “new Bangladesh,” said Asif Mahmud, one of the protest leaders now in charge of the Sports and Youth Ministry.

“We’ve got a big responsibility,” he said. “We never thought, never had an ambition, that we would take such a responsibility at this age.”

“There is pressure, but confidence is also there,” said 26-year-old Mahmud.

The student-led protests began with a demand to abolish a quota system for government jobs they said favored Hasina’s allies but coalesced into a full-scale revolt against her and her Awami League government. Clashes with security forces, and the deaths that resulted, fueled wider outrage against Hasina’s rule, and the students have ridden a wave of popular support.

But concerns are also simmering over their lack of political experience, the extent of their ambitions and crucially, how long it will take the interim government to organize elections. Already, the student ministers along with the protesters have said that before any vote is held, they want to reform the country’s institutions — which they say have been degraded by both the Awami League and its rival, the dynastic Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Experts warn, however, that the interim government is unelected and as such it has no mandate to implement major changes.

The government, headed by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus who was chosen by the students, “must keep in mind that their main responsibility is to hold an election,” said Zillur Rahman, executive director of the Center for Governance Studies, a Dhaka-based think tank. “They shouldn’t take any policy decisions.”

Yunus, an economist and longtime Hasina critic, is known globally for his pioneering use of microcredit to help the poorest of the poor — but also has never run a government. He’s made clear that students will play a critical role in a manner never seen before: “Every ministry should have a student,” he said.

Controlling traffic for a few days is one thing but potentially appointing students into ministries could make them “power hungry” at an especially sensitive time, said Rahman.

Nahid Islam, the other student-turned-minister, acknowledged that they have no governance experience but said the grit and determination they showed in pushing out Hasina was proof that they can get things done.

“We think the students who have succeeded in leading an uprising … and the citizens are capable enough to build the nation,” said Islam, who was born in 1998 and now runs the Ministry of Information and Technology.

In the wake of Hasina’s ousting, students have mounted protests and issued ultimatums against authorities seen as close to her, demanding they quit. Six Supreme Court justices, including the chief justice, and the central bank governor all resigned in the past days.

“A modern government cannot be run on such a pattern,” said Mahfuz Anam, the editor-in-chief of The Daily Star newspaper, while adding that there have been some steps towards a stable transition process.

Many of the students who spent the past weeks protesting agree. They want the interim government to be neutral — but insist it must also be untethered to the mainstream political parties their generation has little connection to.

Alvi Mahmud, an 18-year-old student, said that if the interim government does a good job, then “people will not want BNP or Awami League or any traditional, old parties. They will want change. They will want a new way of living.”

The burning question is when new elections can be held. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior BNP leader, told reporters on Monday that the party told Yunus that it would give the interim government reasonable time to create a conducive and democratic environment for the polls.

This could create “a sense of calm in the political environment,” said Anam. It could also give student leaders time to politically mobilize ahead of elections.

“We are not thinking of a political platform yet,” said Islam, the new minister. “But a young generation is ready to lead this country, that generation has been built.”

For now, the country and its students are trying to come to terms with the horror of the last few weeks. More than 300 people were killed and tens of thousands injured as security forces cracked down on the demonstrations.

Students are sweeping up the streets that only recently were a battleground stained by the blood of their friends. They’re cleaning up debris at homes and university campuses destroyed in the violence. And though some police have returned to the streets after a strike, many students have remained beside them to help direct traffic.

At an intersection in the heart of the city, a statue of Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman — Bangladesh’s first leader after its independence in 1971 — used to tower over the constant flow of traffic. Swept up in both anger and joy after Hasina fled, protesters brought it down.

A few days ago, the site of the statue was defaced with graffiti against her, “Hasina you smell of dead bodies” was scrawled on the walls. Now, students have covered those words with murals depicting unity and their fight for change.

“We salute those who fought for our victory,” someone wrote in red and green, the colors of the Bangladesh’s flag. “We are one,” read another.
Families of missing Bangladesh dissidents see hope in PM Hasina’s ouster (VOA)
VOA [8/13/2024 2:41 PM, Shaikh Azizur Rahman, 4032K, Neutral]
After Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country last week, many families are harboring fresh hope of finding their loved ones who became victims of enforced disappearance during her rule.

Hundreds of people, including opposition political activists, were abducted allegedly by government forces during Hasina’s 15-year rule, and around 150 of them remain unaccounted for.

As soon as Hasina lost power on August 5, members of Mayer Daak — a group supporting the families of the victims of enforced disappearance — swung into action with a fresh hunt for the victims, most of whom disappeared years ago.

A day after Hasina’s fall, Abdullahil Amaan Azmi, a suspended brigadier general, and Ahmad Bin Kashem, a Supreme Court lawyer, were freed. Both had gone missing in 2016. Political activist Michael Chakma, who had disappeared in 2019, was released from captivity the next day.

Sanjida Islam Tulee, co-founder of Mayer Daak, said the families of other enforced disappearance victims believe that their loved ones are being held in secret detention by security agencies and that they too will be released soon.

“Most of the enforced disappearance cases were supported by the regime of Sheikh Hasina. So, the police did not bother to investigate or solve the cases then,” Tulee told VOA.

“The protesting students who threw the [Hasina] government out of power are standing with us now. They have threatened to launch a new round of protests if the security authorities do not make any effort to release the enforced disappearance victims. We are highly hopeful that we will find out our brothers now.”

Years of accusations

Hasina, in office since 2009, was long accused of authoritarianism and corrupt tactics. Her party was accused of rigging the last three general elections, a charge she consistently denied.

Over the past 12 years, several global human rights groups issued reports accusing the nation’s police, army and paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) of involvement in extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances of opposition political activists and other dissidents.

In December 2021, the United States imposed human rights-related sanctions on the RAB and six of its former and then current officers, holding them responsible for serious levels of human rights violations, including hundreds of enforced disappearances and killings.

Dhaka-based human rights group Odhikar, which has long been documenting human rights violations in the country, charged last week that around 3,000 people were killed extrajudicially and over 700 became victims of enforced disappearances during Hasina’s 15 years in office.

Among those who disappeared, some returned home alive while others were found dead. According to different rights groups, around 150 of the enforced disappearance victims remain untraced.

Top officials of the Hasina-led governments consistently denied the allegations.

When Michelle Bachelet, then U.N. high commissioner for human rights, visited Bangladesh in 2022, AK Abdul Momen, then the foreign minister of Bangladesh, told her that there were no cases of enforced disappearances or extrajudicial killings in the country.

Rights groups have long alleged that among others, the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the military intelligence authority, operated several secret detention centers for the enforced disappearance victims.

Military acknowledges disappearances

According to Mayer Daak, the DGFI admitted to a group of its members last week that many people had become victims of enforced disappearances over the past 15 years.

“The DGFI officials told us last week that they were not holding any of the victims in captivity. They also said that there was a possibility of some victims being held in secret detention by some other security agencies,” Tulee told VOA on Monday.

In 2022, in a startling investigative report, a Sweden-based news portal focusing on Bangladesh revealed the possible location of a secret prison in which the victims of enforced disappearances were being kept in Bangladesh.

The report was based on on-the-record accounts of two victims of enforced disappearance. The two men said that they had been kept and tortured inside a DGFI-run secret prison in Dhaka named Aynaghar, meaning House of Mirrors.

Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman of the Capital Punishment Justice Project, which has been documenting rights violations in Bangladesh for more than 15 years, said that Sheikh Hasina used the law-enforcement agencies as tools to force the disappearance of political opponents and other dissidents.

“The judiciary and the law-enforcement system collapsed under the Hasina regime to the extent that not a single case of enforced disappearance was investigated or accorded justice in over 15 years,” Ashrafuzzaman told VOA.

“Currently, the police, military, judicial, and civil administrative hierarchy in Bangladesh consist of officials recruited by the deposed regime on the basis of partisan loyalty to Sheikh Hasina.”

The institutions are incapable of conducting credible investigations into the cases of enforced disappearance and accord justice, he said.

“The given context warrants an immediate probe under the capacity of the United Nations’ independent experts for the sake of unearthing the truth behind the institutionalized enforced disappearances and other gross violation of human rights under the deposed regime,” he added.

‘Please return my father’

On Sunday, over 100 families of victims of enforced disappearance formed a human chain in Dhaka demanding information on the whereabouts of their loved ones. Many at the rally held photos of their missing husbands, fathers, sons and brothers, and broke down emotionally while describing their pain.

Ismail Hossain Baten went missing from Dhaka after RAB officers allegedly abducted him in 2019. Baten’s daughter Anisha Islam Insha, 17, who was part of Sunday’s human chain, told VOA that the ouster of Hasina rekindled her family’s hope that they would soon see her father released.

“Since my father was abducted, my mother and I have not slept for a night peacefully. Our family has been going through a very painful phase for the past five years,” Insha said. “This is my fervent appeal to the security authority — please return my father to us.”
Disappeared Bangladeshi Lawyer Recounts Hasina’s Secret Jail (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [8/14/2024 3:45 AM, Sean Gleeson and Mohammad Mazed, 1.4M, Negative]
Blindfolded, handcuffed and bundled out of his secret prison for the first time in eight years, Bangladeshi barrister Ahmad Bin Quasem held his breath and listened for the sound of a cocked pistol.

Instead, he was tossed from a car and into a muddy ditch on Dhaka’s outskirts -- alive, at liberty, and with no knowledge of the national upheaval that had prompted his abrupt release.

"That’s the first time I got fresh air in eight years," Quasem, 40, told AFP. "I thought they were going to kill me."

Sheikh Hasina, the premier responsible for Quasem’s abduction and disappearance, had fled the country hours earlier.

Her August 5 departure brought a sudden curtain down on 15 years of autocracy that included the mass detention and extrajudicial killing of her political opponents.

But Quasem was in the dark.

He had been confined in the "House of Mirrors" (Aynaghar), a facility run by army intelligence, given its name because its detainees were never supposed to see any other person besides themselves.

Throughout his long incarceration, Quasem was shackled around the clock in windowless solitary confinement.

His jailers were under strict instruction not to relay news from the outside world.

Elsewhere in the detention centre, guards blared music throughout the day that drowned out the Islamic call to prayer from nearby mosques.

It prevented Quasem, a devout Muslim, from knowing when he should offer his prayers -- and from keeping track of how long had elapsed since his abduction.

When the music was off, he heard the anguished sounds of other detainees.

"Slowly, slowly, I could realise that I am not alone," he said. "I could hear people crying, I could hear people being tortured, I could hear people screaming."

Human Rights Watch last year said security forces had committed "over 600 enforced disappearances" since Hasina came to power in 2009.

Rumours abounded of a secret black site housing some of that number, but Aynaghar was unknown to the public until the publication abroad of a 2022 whistleblower report.

Hasina’s government consistently maintained afterwards that it did not exist.

It also denied committing enforced disappearances, claiming some of those reported missing had drowned in the Mediterranean while trying to reach Europe.

Quasem is certain of the reason for his abduction.

His father, Mir Quasem Ali, a senior member of Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami, was on trial that year.

Ali was accused of running a paramilitary group that tortured pro-independence Bangladeshis during the country’s 1971 liberation war against Pakistan.

He and several others were indicted by a war crimes tribunal, ostensibly to bring justice to the victims of that devastating conflict, but widely seen as a means for Hasina to eliminate political opponents.

Whether or not Ali was guilty, there was no way of knowing from the mockery of justice that accompanied his prosecution.

Quasem, called to the bar in London and then aged 32, was running his father’s defence.

His regular media briefings on procedural lapses and judicial bias at the tribunal, echoed by rights groups and UN experts, put a target on his back.

Plainclothes men entered his house one night, snatched him from his family, dragged him down the stairs and threw him in a waiting car.

"I never could believe in my wildest dreams that they would subject me to disappearance just days before my father’s execution," Quasem said.

"I kept telling them, "Do you know who I am? I need to be there to conduct my case. I need to be there with my family.’"

Quasem’s father was hanged four weeks later. Quasem did not know until about three more years had passed, when one of his jailers accidentally let it slip.

After the car that had carried him out of prison sped away, Quasem walked through the night to try and find his way home.

By sheer coincidence, he came across a medical clinic operated by a charity for which his father had once been a trustee.

He was recognised by a staff member and a phone number was frantically tracked down to contact his family, who came rushing to be with him.

But first, the excited chatter of those around him filled Quasem in on the weeks of student protests that had resulted in his release.

"This entire thing, it was made possible by few teenagers," he said.

"When I see these children, these kids, leading the way," he added. "I am really hopeful this will be the opportunity where Bangladesh finds a new direction."

Quasem and his family received AFP warmly into their home -- but the trauma of his detention was immediately apparent.

The thick, coiffed hairdo he sported before his detention has receded into a few wild tufts, and he has lost an alarming amount of weight.

His wife Tahmina Akhter said the publicity around Quasem’s case left her feeling ostracised by other mothers at their children’s school.

The family was reliably hounded every anniversary of his disappearance and warned to stop publicising it.

His two young daughters were three and four years old when he was taken away.

The elder witnessed his abduction and is still scared of certain authority figures, such as the private security guard posted outside her school.

The younger did not remember him at all.

"It didn’t feel like eight years for us," Quasem’s mother Ayesha Khatoon told AFP.

"It felt like eight lifetimes."
Central Asia
Kazakh Family Who Survived Migrant Boat Tragedy Haven’t Given Up On American Dream (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [8/14/2024 4:00 AM, Farangis Najibullah, 235K, Neutral]
The Zhapaq family from the Kazakh city of Almaty were hoping to realize their American dream and begin a new life in the United States this summer.

But after their quest to enter the United States illegally almost ended in tragedy, they are instead back to their old lives again in the working-class neighborhood of Shanyraq.

Baikhan Zhapaq, his wife Arai Zhaparqulova, and two of their four children were among the survivors after a boat carrying 18 illegal migrants sank off Colombia’s Caribbean coast on July 9. At least one person died in the incident.

The family say they sold their car and livestock and borrowed money, leaving their house as collateral in collecting $40,000 to finance their ill-fated journey to the United States.

They planned to travel from Kazakhstan to neighboring Uzbekistan before flying to Qatar and then taking a plane to Brazil -- a popular route for the thousands of Kazakh migrants who have headed to the United States.

From Brazil they would continue the journey northward -- through Colombia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico -- to reach the U.S. border.

The family say they wanted to leave Kazakhstan due to financial hardship and to provide better opportunities for their children.

Zhapaq who worked as a driver at the Almaty airport, says he earned a "decent salary" but it wasn’t enough to feed the family of six.

"We used the [state] child allowance to pay our mortgage and for children’s clothes and school expenses," said Zhaparqulova, 35.

"To earn extra money, I baked and sold pies. We worked and worked but were never able to make enough money," she said. "We needed [the equivalent of] $1,250 a month to have a normal life, but our income was much smaller than that."

Plans Unravel

The couple embarked on their long journey in late June, taking along two of their children -- teenage son Bekos and his 5-year-old brother, Daryn.

Accompanying them was 46-year-old Qabidulla Qali, a chef from Almaty whom the couple befriended on a chat group of Kazakhs seeking to move to the United States.

Soon the five of them arrived in Brazil, where their plan began to unravel. Airport officials in Rio de Janeiro did not allow them to board their flight to the Nicaraguan capital, Managua.

"We had valid return tickets, we had a hotel reservation in Managua, but they still didn’t allow us [to fly]. We were desperate," Zhapaq, 36, said, adding that officials told them Nicaragua had sent a list of passengers who must be banned from boarding the plane.

The United States has begun putting pressure on countries in South and Central America to take measures to stop illegal migrants who use their territory to reach the United States. Washington imposed sanctions on Nicaragua in May, accusing it of aiding the trafficking of migrants.

Zhapaq says the family decided to go back to Kazakhstan and that Qali even bought a ticket to Almaty. But then they changed their minds and instead approached some people smugglers to arrange their journey to Nicaragua by a clandestine sea route.

The family said they paid $8,500 to the traffickers to take them from Colombia’s San Andres Island to Nicaragua. Late on July 8, the Kazakhs joined other illegal migrants from Iran, Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela aboard a small boat.

There were 20 people, including two captains on the fishing boat, which had no seats.

‘This Is The End’

"After going some 10 kilometers on the boat, the island disappeared from view and then big waves began to rise, but we didn’t pay attention to it. Everyone was sitting quietly immersed in their thoughts," Zhaparqulova recalled.

But everything changed a few minutes later as a large wave flipped the boat, scattering the migrants and their belongings into the open sea in the middle of the night.

Eventually, the family found each other in the water and spent hours clinging to a gasoline barrel that stayed afloat.

"I can’t possibly describe what was going on in my mind in those moments," Zhapaq recalled. "My whole life flashed before my eyes. I was scared for the children. I thought, ‘We should have gone back [to Kazakhstan when we weren’t allowed to board our flight in Rio]. Now we’ll die here, this is the end.’"

"We were very scared, but we tried to stay calm so we wouldn’t scare the kids. We told them a boat will come and rescue us," Zhaparqulova said.

"I was thinking, ‘How many minutes do we have before we will die here in the sea? How long can we manage to stay afloat before drowning? I was thinking about the two children we left behind in Kazakhstan, and about these two who were with us in the sea, in pitch dark."

Zhaparqulova described how the "waves were rising high" and crashing over them.

"The saltwater was stinging our eyes, and we swallowed it. We felt sick. We were holding the children up so they wouldn’t sink," the mother said.

At least 15 of the migrants, including the Zhapaq family, were eventually rescued by a Colombian Navy rapid-reaction unit. But Qali didn’t make it. Rescuers recovered his body from the sea.

Back Home

The family’s luggage, money, and clothes were all lost at sea, but their passports were miraculously left intact inside a small shoulder bag that Zhapaq had sealed with tape before the boat journey.

"We were exhausted and in shock, unable to utter a word," Zhapaq said, describing the moments after being rescued and taken to a Colombian migration center.

"For three days they took good care of us, gave us food and clothes, [but] the migration center workers tried to make sure that we didn’t leave the facility," he said. "Someone would always accompany us even to the kitchen and the toilet. But we didn’t have any intention of trying to go to the United States [at that point]. We only wanted to go home. I forgot about all the loans and told myself that I would find a way to earn money."

Colombian officials requested that the family leave the country as soon as possible. Three days later, a relative in Kazakhstan purchased them one-way tickets to Almaty. On July 14, Zhapaq and his family arrived back in Kazakhstan.

With no jobs and no money and big loans to repay, the couple are trying to rebuild their lives while also struggling to deal with the trauma they suffered. But they have not given up on their American dream.

But the next time they want to explore legal routes.

"The path we tried isn’t worth the risk, especially with children," Zhapaq said. "It was our fate to go through that [ordeal]."
Causes and Consequences of Kazakhstan’s Brain Drain (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [8/13/2024 12:41 PM, Gulnash Askhat, 1156K, Positive]
In recent years, the problem of brain drain has become a subject of great debate in Kazakhstan. The country has experienced a trend of negative external migration over the past decade.

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, as reported by Tengri News, 12,732 people left Kazakhstan in 2023. Although the reporting does not specify, presumably these are people who have decided to leave Kazakhstan for opportunities elsewhere, as opposed to those engaged in seasonal labor migration or leisure travel. Of the migrants reported in 2023, 9,948 of them left for Commonwealth of Independent State (CIS) countries, while the remaining 2,784 left for countries beyond the former Soviet Union.

In the January-March 2024 period, the number of people leaving the country was 3,785. Compared with the same period in 2023, the number of people leaving Kazakhstan increased by 42.1 percent.

More detailed information from the Bureau of National Statistics and the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection would be necessary to analyze future trends in economic development and to what extent these departures qualitatively affect society.

The term “brain drain” was first used in a report of the British Royal Society in 1962 regarding the emigration of scientists, engineers, and technicians from the U.K. to the U.S. It has been used to refer to the mass emigration of highly qualified specialists from developing countries to the developed world.

Returning to the 2023 figures cites above, almost every fourth person who left Kazakhstan had higher education, and every sixth person had secondary education. Most who left had a technical (2,809), economic (1,456), pedagogical (75), or legal (421) background. That is, they are people exactly in those specialties that Kazakhstan lacks.

Kazakhstan’s labor market is experiencing a significant increase in demand since the beginning of 2024. Employers are actively looking for workers in various fields, as is reflected in the number of vacancies posted on popular job search resources. According to the press service of HeadHunter Kazakhstan, more than 40,000 vacancies were posted in the first two weeks of January, twice as many as in the previous month. Overall, there is a high demand for various specialists in the Kazakhstan labor market, including auditors, lawyers, recruiters, purchasers, doctors, and teachers. Employers are willing to offer high wages to qualified specialists, especially in areas where there is an acute shortage of personnel.

Moreover, the statistics cited above regarding those who left Kazakhstan in 2023 do not include the several tens of thousands of Kazakhstanis who live abroad for study or work. They may not be counted as leaving, but many probably have no plans to return home.

Education in particular exerts a strong gravitational force on Kazakhstanis, drawing them away from the country. According to updated data from the UNESCO Statistical Institute, Kazakhstan sits in ninth place in the world in the number of students abroad (91,200 students).

The key incentives for Kazakhstani youth to go abroad to study are the perceived higher quality and prestige of foreign educational institutions, and, for some, ambition to secure employment and residence abroad. Not all those who travel abroad for education return to Kazakhstan, contributing to the “brain drain.”

In addition, every second Kazakhstani citizen who leaves is married, so families are leaving as well.

Apart from the pull factors enticing Kazakhstanis to leave, such as economic opportunities, including better jobs, and higher standards of living, ecology also plays crucial role in pushing people to leave Kazakhstan. While low wages are often referenced as a critical factor contributing to the “brain drain” every year, more and more people are moving due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For example, in a ranking of the world’s most polluted cities in terms of annual average PM2.5 concentration in the 2017-2023 period by IQAir, Kazakhstan’s Karaganda ranked at 44th out of more than 7,000 cities in the ranking.

The facts show that Kazakhstan is indeed facing a brain drain. The state can work to counter this trend in several ways.

First, the state must provide young people with decent education, work opportunities, and sufficient wages. The most important asset of any country is its people. The outflow of youth and educated people causes damage to Kazakhstan in the tens, hundreds, and millions of dollars – retaining Kazakhstanis in the country needs to be a priority.

Second, the state needs to foster comfortable working conditions for specialists and afford opportunities for professional growth.

Third, to retain young families in the country, there needs to be an available supply of affordable housing.

Finally, the government and business leaders need to recognize environmental conditions as vitally important and commit to improving air quality. As Kazakhstan works on its energy transition, with the stated goal to become carbon neutral by 2060, the introduction of advanced technologies will be critical.

All of these steps are realistic and economically possible. In some areas, Kazakhstan has already begun this important work. Kazakhstani leaders understand the problem, but efforts to date have not achieved significant success.

In his 2022 State of the Nation Address, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the development of technical and vocational education in the country, and issued a call for the involvement of large companies in this process within the framework of social responsibility.

In Kazakhstan, as in many other countries, the level of wages varies significantly depending on different fields and experience of the employees. Today companies in technical sectors (electric power industry, mechanical engineering and metalworking, the fuel, automotive, and space industries) are willing to pay the highest salaries to retain their employees. The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection reported that as of 2023, the highest salaries were received by workers in the mining industry (an average of 692,000 tenge), financial services (494,000 tenge), and information and communications (447,000 tenge).

There is hope that the “brain drain” trend may gradually change. Today, many international companies are moving from Russia to Kazakhstan, which implies the creation of jobs and demand for a workforce with appropriate qualifications.

Can Kazakhstan finally solve its brain drain problem? It’s hard to be sure. Young people are hardly inclined to analyze the differences between declared development programs, they are more likely to proceed from quite real and prosaic indicators: the standard of living and leisure, opportunities for self-realization with the education they receive, and opportunities to buy housing and maintain a family. In addition, it is necessary to understand that today the demands of the population and, first of all, young people also include accountability and transparency of the authorities, and a political arena that takes into account the views of every citizen. The development of digital technologies also provides people with access to the world, broadening their understanding of what is possible to achieve and the many possible places to live a good life.

Migration flows, the movement of populations, are a normal phenomenon. Almost all countries are involved in migration exchange in some fashion. And the outflow of well-educated and young Kazakhstanis depends on many factors. The number of people leaving the country is increasing, as stated above, but it is unknown whether that trend will continue into the future. One thing is clear, however: Kazakhstan’s government needs to continue working to ensure a comfortable life for all Kazakhstanis.
Bishkek Rejects Report Saying Heroin Seized In Bulgaria From Kyrgyzstan (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [8/13/2024 9:26 AM, Staff, 1530K, Negative]
Kyrgyzstan’s Interior Ministry on August 13 rejected a statement by Bulgarian authorities saying that hundreds of kilograms of heroin seized in Bulgaria had come from Kyrgyzstan. The ministry said it was in contact with the Bulgarian authorities to monitor developments. The day before, Bulgarian port officials said that 436 kilograms of heroin estimated to be worth nearly $38 million was seized at the Black Sea port of Burgas in a trailer that had arrived at the end of July on a land route from Kyrgyzstan to the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Freshta Razbaan
@RazbaanFreshta
[8/13/2024 8:46 PM, 4.8K followers, 4 retweets, 11 likes]
On the somber third anniversary of Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban, it’s crucial to express our deep gratitude to all organizations, individuals, and groups, especially our Western allies, and most notably, those from the United States, who have tirelessly advocated for Afghan allies. Their relentless efforts to secure safety for those who stood alongside U.S, risking their lives, are truly commendable. This commitment has been vital in enabling these brave individuals to pursue lives of dignity and security.

However, the journey remains arduous for thousands of Afghan allies of the United States who are yet to reach safety. We earnestly urge all involved parties, particularly the U.S. government, not to abandon these allies but to honor their commitments and ensure their protection and well-being. A heartfelt appreciation goes to initiatives led by @APAinc under the "Prosecutors For Prosecutors" campaign, striving to relocate former Afghan prosecutors to safety, allowing them a chance at a dignified life. To those who have contributed to this vital campaign, even your smallest donations have been life-saving, creating new hope for hundreds seeking a secure and honorable future. Let us continue to support and remember the ongoing needs of Afghan allies, ensuring their sacrifices are not in vain.

Thank you, @APAinc, @afghanevac, @ApaOrg2021, @JHRAfghanistan, @IAP_Official, @n1leftbehind, @officialopreco, @PennsylvaniaDAs, @CityAttorneyLA, @ITJP_JusticeNow, @MoProsecutors, @LDAAJustice, @marcoattorney, @task_force_argo, @OpFreedomBirds, @MoralCompassFed, @ndaajustice, @NAPC_US, @SE_AfghanWGH, @StateDept, @SecBlinken, @POTUS, @USAmbKabul >https://apa-pfp.org

Fawzia Koofi
@Fawziakoofi77
[8/14/2024 3:00 AM, 563.4K followers, 2 retweets, 18 likes]
Remembering 14th August 2020 and the wounds that healed. But the open wounds from 15th August 2021 will not heal until 85 edicts to erase women from their fundamental rights are not reversed, until people of Afghanistan don’t regain the power to shape their future. Until we don’t reclaim our country!
Pakistan
Government of Pakistan
@GovtofPakistan
[8/14/2024 2:28 AM, 3.1M followers, 4 retweets, 23 likes]
Islamabad: Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif hoists the national flag at the Pakistan Monument on 78th Independence Day of Pakistan. #77YearsOfIndependence #PakistanZindabad

Government of Pakistan
@GovtofPakistan
[8/14/2024 2:29 AM, 3.1M followers, 2 likes]
Islamabad: Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif laying a floral wreath at the Yadgar-e-Shuhada. #77YearsOfIndependence #PakistanZindabad

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan
@ForeignOfficePk
[8/14/2024 2:19 AM, 179.9K followers, 10 retweets, 29 likes]
Wishing a very joyous #78thIndependenceDay to all Pakistanis. On this day we pledge our commitment to work together for a peaceful and progressive Pakistan. #IndependenceDay2024 #AzmeIstehkam

Shehbaz Sharif
@CMShehbaz
[8/14/2024 3:33 AM, 6.7M followers, 29 retweets, 87 likes]
Celebrating Pakistan’s 78th Independence Day! Let us honor our shared history & values that binds us.May we embrace unity,faith & discipline in our strive for peace,justice & welfare for all citizens as we work together to build a stronger nation

Imran Khan
@ImranKhanPTI
[8/13/2024 3:02 PM, 20.8M followers, 17K retweets, 31K likes]
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s authorised AI generated message on #PakistanIndependenceDay https://x.com/i/status/1823435038274244896

Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud
@IhsanTipu
[8/14/2024 2:26 AM, 29.3K followers, 16 retweets, 64 likes]
Pakistan Independence Day brings together American, Iranian and the Taliban Consul Generals in Peshawar for the flag-hoisting ceremony at Governor’s House.
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[8/13/2024 10:35 PM, 101M followers, 8.3K retweets, 32K likes] On #PartitionHorrorsRemembranceDay, we recall the countless people who were impacted and greatly suffered due to the horrors of Partition. It is also a day to pay tributes to their courage, which illustrates the power of human resilience. A lot of those impacted by Partition went on to rebuild their lives and attain immense success. Today, we also reiterate our commitment to always protect the bonds of unity and brotherhood in our nation.

President of India
@rashtrapatibhvn
[8/13/2024 9:15 AM, 25.5M followers, 273 retweets, 2.5K likes]
Governor of Jharkhand, Shri Santosh Kumar Gangwar called on President Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[8/14/2024 12:05 AM, 3.2M followers, 341 retweets, 1.4K likes]
The Partition was an act whose human consequences matched its geopolitical ones. On #PartitionHorrorsRememberanceDay, we pay our tribute to all those who endured unimaginable pain and suffering.

Richard Rossow
@RichardRossow
[8/13/2024 10:05 AM, 29.6K followers, 4 likes]
India’s Ministry of Coal announces new plans to improve Coal India Ltd by expanding foreign partners. Apart from production, MoC wants these foreign players to improve adherence to enviro standards & more. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2044824

Derek J. Grossman
@DerekJGrossman
[8/13/2024 10:55 AM, 91.3K followers, 24 retweets, 149 likes]
Modi’s meeting with Zelensky in Ukraine later this month will come at a particularly sore point in the war. Ukrainian forces have invaded Russia and seized more than two dozen villages in Kursk. Putin won’t like Modi hugging the resistance leader who now doubles as aggressor.
NSB
Abdoulaye Seck
@WBBangladeshCD
[8/13/2024 7:00 AM, 756 followers, 11 retweets, 194 likes]
I had a very good meeting today with Finance and Planning Adviser Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed on #Bangladesh’s development priorities. I also conveyed our deep condolences for the tragic loss of lives at this historic time, & expressed hope for a peaceful transition and stability in Bangladesh.

Abdoulaye Seck
@WBBangladeshCD
[8/13/2024 7:00 AM, 757 followers, 8 likes]
We reaffirmed the World Bank Group commitment to support the people of Bangladesh in achieving their development aspirations.

Sami
@ZulkarnainSaer
[8/13/2024 3:46 PM, 67.7K followers, 196 retweets, 686 likes]
The individual in the photos is Major General (Retd) Tarique Ahmed Siddique, the security and defense advisor to Dictator Hasina. He is the brother-in-law of Hasina’s sister, Sheikh Rehana, and the paternal uncle of British MP Tulip Siddiq. For years, this individual has been a key decision-maker for Hasina regarding security forces. Practices of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and secret prisons are attributed to his malevolent influence. With Hasina’s downfall, this sinister figure has gone underground and is currently untraceable.

Jon Danilowicz
@JonFDanilowicz
[8/13/2024 10:45 AM, 6.6K followers, 43 retweets, 238 likes]
#Bangladesh PM Hasina’s decision to hang on until the last minute and save her own skin by fleeing to India ultimately resulted in her abandoning those who had propped up her regime. As many of them now begin to face consequences in Bangladesh while she and her family members live comfortable lives abroad, it will be interesting to see how long it will take for them to start abandoning her. By contrast, Begum Zia retained control of the BNP largely due to her decision to stay in Bangladesh and face the consequences. It is hard to see how Hasina keeps control if she stays out of the country.

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[8/13/2024 2:18 PM, 264.8K followers, 186 retweets, 399 likes]
The Biden administration has welcomed the military-chosen interim government in Bangladesh, but why is it reluctant to speak out against the continuing attacks since last week on Bangladesh’s long-persecuted Hindu minority, including killings and burning of their homes?

Brahma Chellaney
@Chellaney
[8/13/2024 10:51 AM, 264.8K followers, 73 retweets, 191 likes]
Like Hasina this month, Sri Lanka President Gotabaya Rajapaksa two years ago fled the country, without even formally resigning. Protesters then occupied the presidential palace, much as Bangladeshi mobs have ransacked Hasina’s sprawling official residence.

The President’s Office, Maldives
@presidencymv
[8/13/2024 9:09 AM, 109.4K followers, 103 retweets, 97 likes]
The Speaker of the Parliament of Sri Lanka pays a courtesy call on the President https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/31354

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maldives
@MoFAmv
[8/13/2024 10:54 AM, 54.5K followers, 20 retweets, 28 likes]
Minister @MoosaZameer had a fruitful meeting with senior officials of Batelco today. Minister thanked Batelco for their key role in enhancing connectivity across Maldives & discussed ongoing cooperation between the Maldives and Batelco. @Batelco

Namal Rajapaksa
@RajapaksaNamal
[8/14/2024 12:04 AM, 437.5K followers, 5 retweets, 54 likes]
SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam has paid the deposit on my behalf for the upcoming Presidential Election.

Ranil Wickremesinghe
@RW_UNP
[8/13/2024 10:28 AM, 322.4K followers, 23 retweets, 97 likes]
Transforming Higher Education in Sri Lanka - Our Path to Becoming a Developed Nation https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1jMJgBzoROXGL

Eran Wickramaratne
@EranWick
[8/13/2024 9:51 AM, 68.9K followers, 9 retweets, 33 likes]
Creating confidence in Sri Lanka is critical for attracting investments, I explained at the Capital Market Development Summit held last week. Before factoring in the industry risk or project risk, global investors consider the country risk. Confidence in Sri Lanka can only be built by maintaining our democratic way of life, the rule of law, social justice and sociopolitical stability. An SJB government will be committed to ensuring these key requirements to make Sri Lanka a sought after investment destination.

M U M Ali Sabry
@alisabrypc
[8/13/2024 5:52 AM, 6.1K followers, 4 retweets, 19 likes]
The new Chief Mission of @IOMSriLanka, @Kristinbparco presented her credentials to me today at the @MFA_SriLanka. I referred to the excellent services rendered by the IOM to the Sri Lankan citizens and wished her for a successful tenure.
Central Asia
UNODC Central Asia
@UNODC_ROCA
[8/13/2024 6:21 AM, 2.5K followers, 3 retweets, 3 likes]
On #InternationalYouthDay, the Regional Youth Network for Central Asia #RYNCA announced 15 winners from Kazakstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan of the regional #youthcompetition on #druguseprevention. materials presented specific attitudes and ideas. to Russia for the support to #RYNCA

MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[8/13/2024 7:51 AM, 4.9K followers, 2 retweets, 7 likes]
Briefing on the Law of the Republic of Tajikistan "On the regulation of celebrations and ceremonies in the Republic of Tajikistan" https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/15524/briefing-on-the-law-of-the-republic-of-tajikistan-on-the-regulation-of-celebrations-and-ceremonies-in-the-republic-of-tajikistan

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[8/13/2024 2:02 PM, 196.5K followers, 1 retweet, 23 likes]
President Shavkat #Mirziyoyev held a meeting with Government officials to discuss measures for economic development in the regions, alternative energy sources, and creating attractive conditions for industry. The meeting focused on creating more favorable conditions for entrepreneurs, specializing each district, and rationally using energy, with the #Bukhara region as an example. The president emphasized the importance of strictly monitoring project implementation in the regions and ordered relevant officials to set specific key performance indicators (KPIs).

{End of Report}
To subscribe to the SCA Morning Press Clips, please email SCA-PressOfficers@state.gov. Please do not reply directly to this email.