epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
‘They can stone us and flog us – I will keep using makeup’: why women risk everything in Afghanistan’s secret salons (The Guardian)
The Guardian [8/1/2024 12:00 AM, Staff, 86.2M, Neutral]
It is 9am in a suburb of Kabul when two women in powder-pink burqas ring the doorbell of a drab building. The exterior is a silent reminder of the gloomy atmosphere that prevails in the capital. “Can you let us in?” they whisper.

A woman called Sonia* opens the door. Before the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, this 56-year-old hairstylist and beauty salon owner never imagined that one day she would have to work in secret.

After letting her clients in, Sonia mechanically unpacks her beauty paraphernalia on the table: makeup palettes, hairdryers, flat irons, waxes, mascara, nail polish, false nails, kohl and brushes. It’s all there.

Running the secret salon could cost her a fine, several months in prison or worse.

But Sonia cannot afford to let fear overwhelm her. If she does not concentrate, the eyeliner will not be applied properly and her customers won’t come back.

“What can I do for you?” Sonia asks her clients, who are both in their 20s. In the world’s most repressive country for women, such courtesies have become dangerous.

The Taliban announced the closure of beauty salons throughout Afghanistan in July 2023, claiming a number of the services they offered – including eyebrow shaping and the application of makeup – were violating Islamic law.

In a country with more than 12,000 salons, the ban had a devastating impact on the estimated 60,000 women who worked in the sector. The salons had also served an important social function for Afghan women – providing a safe, female-only space where they could meet outside their homes and without a male chaperone.

Since being banned when the Taliban were in power between 1996 and 2001, beauty parlours had proliferated with thousands opening across Kabul and other Afghan cities during the western military occupation.

Many remained open after the Taliban returned to power almost three years ago. But since the 2023 ruling, what little freedom women had left has now been curtailed.

Despite the ban, and at great personal risk, some beauticians have decided to continue working in order to feed their families: financial hardship is a leading driver of the Afghan beauty sector.

“I refuse to marry off my daughters for money. I must earn a living,” says Amina*, a 37-year-old beautician who has been working in the industry for more than 15 years.

Some women transform their homes into salons. Others make home visits to their customers, but in order to apply makeup to the faces that the Taliban regime wants to hide, strict rules are followed.

“We use techniques to avoid being arrested. For example, my clients wear burqas of a specific colour so that I know it’s them. I never take the same roads and avoid travelling at regular times,” says one beautician.

Nothing is left to chance. Even the plastic bag for carrying the tools of the beauty trade is chosen carefully. Amina uses a branded one from a well-known grocery store in the capital. “This bag is our alibi. Other beauticians prefer to hide banned products under their burqa.”

“We are all prisoners of the Taliban. I was born a woman and that’s my greatest crime. The price of my beauty is the price of my freedom. I’d rather sacrifice some meals to have my eyebrows and hair done,” says Noor*.

What had been a habit has now become a dangerous luxury. “We listened to music and dressed like westerners. It was our moment of freedom,” says a university teacher of the time before the Taliban, when she would visit her local beauty salon every two weeks.

Now, she treats herself to a clandestine makeover every two months and wears gloves to hide her colourful varnished nails when she goes out.

Behind the thick blue velvet burqa, many women in Afghanistan are well groomed, especially those who can afford it.

“Like every woman in the world, I want to be beautiful. The Taliban can stop me from working and walking alone, but they will never be able to control my beauty. It’s all I have left,” says another client who was bringing her 19-year-old daughter to the salon to celebrate the teenager’s transition to adulthood.

Beauticians risk being turned in by neighbours, makeup suppliers or fake clients who are informers for the Taliban. The risk has been aggravated by mass surveillance, introduced by the Taliban to enforce their strict interpretation of sharia law.

“One of my colleagues was arrested by the Taliban because of her secret salon. No one has heard from her since; I fear the worst,” says Sonia.

Since the Taliban came to power, Afghanistan’s 21 million women and girls have gradually been deprived of even their most basic rights. Confined to their homes, unable to study, work or walk freely, the number of women killing themselves has risen, while sexual crimes are at an all-time high.

Now, just as during the first Taliban regime, judges are being encouraged to order flogging when sentencing. “Afghan women are already dead. They can stone and flog us – I will continue to apply makeup to my clients. I’m scared, but there is no alternative,” says Amina.
A New Dawn for Afghanistan’s Mes Aynak Copper Mine? (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [7/31/2024 10:17 AM, Catherine Putz, 1156K, Neutral]
After 16 years of delays, last week representatives of Afghanistan’s Taliban government and Chinese engineers broke ground at Mes Aynak, estimated to be the world’s second-largest deposit of copper. The ribbons that were cut were for an access road, a small first step in a project that the Taliban have characterized as “crucial.”

Afghanistan is believed to have significant mineral reserves, largely unexploited due to decades of political instability and war. In total, these resources – which range from copper and iron ore to lithium and other critical minerals – are valued at an estimated $1-3 trillion.

Located around 40 kilometers southeast of Kabul in Logar Province, Mes Aynak is estimated to contain (depending on the source) somewhere between 5.5 and 11.5 million metric tons of high-grade copper ore. Successive Afghan governments – and China – have long hoped to tap into the mine’s potential, but contractual disputes have impeded progress amid security issues, logistical challenges, and government changes.

In November 2007, the China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC), a Chinese state-owned conglomerate, outbid competing offers by $1 billion – putting up a $3.4 billon bid for a 30-year lease to develop the mine. The contract, for just under $3 billion, was formally awarded in May 2008 with plans for production to start within five years. Under the original vision, the extracting, smelting, and processing of the raw copper was to occur in Afghanistan. Significant infrastructure projects, such as a power plant and a railway, were also discussed.

In 2013, instead of starting production as originally scheduled, the MCC requested a review of its contract. Plans for the power plant and the rail line were dropped, and soon thereafter the project stalled entirely. Chinese staff reportedly left in 2014 as the war in Afghanistan shifted into a new phase.

In neighboring Pakistan, China began pouring money and attention into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistani and Chinese workers became targets of militant groups. Concerns over security have certainly plagued Mes Aynak, too, especially as the Taliban and China began negotiating re-starting the project.

Not long after the Taliban seized control of Kabul in August 2021, the group’s Acting Minister for Mining and Petroleum Shahbuddin Dilawar began pushing for re-engagement with MCC. As the Associated Press reported in March 2022, “Ziad Rashidi, the ministry’s director of foreign relations, approached the consortium made up by MCC, China Metallurgical Group Corporation and Jiangxi Copper Ltd. Dilawar has had two virtual meetings with MCC in the last six months, according to company and ministry officials. He urged them to return to the mine, terms unchanged from the 2008 contract.”

Rashidi told the Associated Press that “Chinese companies see the current situation as ideal for them. There is a lack of international competitors and a lot of support from the government side.”

The Taliban, which had attacked security checkpoints near the mine as recently as 2020, recognized in Mes Aynak – and Chinese capital – an unparalleled financial opportunity.

At the July 24 ribbon-cutting, which marked commencement of work on an access road to the mine, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar said, “The time wasted in the implementation of the project should be recuperated with speedy work.”

Earlier, as Tolo News reported, a spokesman for the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum said on X, formerly Twitter, “The contracted company has been obligated to start the operations of this world-level major copper mine and its 100 percent process in accordance with the 2008 commitments by the end of this week.”

Taliban officials, however, have moderated that enthusiasm, noting that it will likely take two years before extraction can begin.

Whether Mes Aynak begins producing copper by 2026 or not will rely heavily on several factors, not the least of which is security. But the most likely hiccups will be the same factors that derailed the project in the past: debate over the contract terms and logistical difficulties. A new factor is the Taliban government itself, which certainly views the project – and Chinese investment – as a pathway to international legitimization, if not official recognition.

Chinese Ambassador to Afghanistan Zhao Xing said at the ribbon-cutting that “economic and trade relations between the two countries are becoming increasingly close.” A readout posted by the embassy noted, “The Chinese side is willing to work with Afghan side to smoothly promote the exploitation of Afghan mineral resources while ensuring effective protection of cultural relics, so as to make this project a model of investment cooperation between China and Afghanistan.”

In addition to copper, Mes Aynak is home to the remains of an ancient Buddhist city. Breaking from its Buddha-blasting past, the Taliban have pledged to see the site’s heritage preserved.

The Chinese readout of the ribbon-cutting went on to note that the Afghan side had pledged to “do its utmost to provide security and convenience for the Chinese company.”
Pakistan
Pakistan condemns killing of Hamas chief as ‘reckless act’ (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [7/31/2024 2:58 PM, Staff, 85570K, Negative]
Pakistan said Wednesday the killing of Hamas’s political leader in an air strike in neighbouring Iran blamed on Israel was a "reckless act", while hundreds of supporters of an Islamist party held a symbolic funeral near Islamabad.

Describing the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh as "terrorism", Islamabad’s foreign ministry said in a statement that "Pakistan views with serious concern the growing Israeli adventurism in the region."

"Its latest acts constitute a dangerous escalation in an already volatile region and undermine efforts for peace", it said.

In the evening, more than a thousand supporters of the country’s largest Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, gathered in Rawalpindi, a large city on the outskirts of Islamabad, hailing the "martyr Ismail Haniyeh" while booing Israel and America.

"I am here to show solidarity with my brothers and sisters in Palestine", Syed Obaid ur Rehman, a 25-year-old student, told AFP.

"I cannot be there physically but at least I can demonstrate here to make the voice of Palestine heard."

Sajid Hussain, a 28-year-old civil servant, told AFP that Haniyeh’s "martyrdom is a huge loss for the Muslim world".

Haniyeh had travelled to Tehran to attend Tuesday’s swearing-in of Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Iran is a sworn enemy of Israel and ally of Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

It and Hamas have vowed to avenge Haniyeh’s death, raising fears of a flare-up in the region amid the war in Gaza.

Israel -- which Pakistan does not recognize -- declined to comment on the death of Haniyeh, 61, who was elected head of Hamas’s political bureau in 2017.

His death came just hours after Israel attacked a Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut on Tuesday, killing a senior commander of the Lebanese militant group it blamed for a deadly weekend rocket strike on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.
Amnesty, Malala Slam Crackdown In Pakistan’s Balochistan Province (Radio Free Europe)
Radio Free Europe [7/31/2024 12:08 PM, Staff, 1530K, Negative]
With tensions still high in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan Province following days of deadly protests, Amnesty International has called on authorities to end what it called a "brutal crackdown" in the restive region.

Violence erupted in the port city of Gwadar over the weekend after local activists had attempted to organize a protest against alleged human rights violations, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings of ethnic Baluchis.

As people made their way to Gwadar to join the protest, security forces began blocking major highways into the city, resulting in violent clashes, including an incident that left at least one person dead and several others injured on July 28.

With the tumult showing no signs of abating amid reports of further fatalities, Amnesty International issued a statement late on July 30 urging Islamabad "to uphold the rights to freedom of expression, access to information, movement, and peaceful assembly."

Nobel Prize-winning rights advocate Malala Yousafzai also voiced her support for the demonstrators, saying on X that "I strongly condemn the violent response against peaceful protesters."

The Pakistani military claims its soldiers have been attacked by violent mobs and that its troops are exercising restraint to avoid civilian casualties.

Many Baluchis blame Islamabad for exploiting Balochistan’s vast natural resources and committing grave human rights abuses in the impoverished region, which has been the scene of a low-level insurgency and harsh government clampdowns for decades.
With Latest Crackdown on Protesters, Pakistan Continues to Make Its Balochistan Problem Worse (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [7/31/2024 9:04 AM, Kiyya Baloch, 1156K, Negative]
In a troubling escalation, the government of Pakistan’s Balochistan province has imposed severe restrictions in the coastal town of Gwadar, just a day before the Baloch Raji Machi, or Baloch National Gathering, organized by the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) – also known as the Baloch Solidarity Committee – was set to commence on July 28. The BYC is a prominent civil rights movement advocating for the protection of civil, political, and economic rights, and calling for an end to enforced disappearances and custodial killings of Baloch in Balochistan.

On July 27, the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force in Pakistan, opened fire on buses heading to Gwadar for the Baloch National Gathering, injuring at least 14 people in Mastung, about 60 km (35 miles) west of Quetta. The authorities set up blockades across the province to restrict movement, leading to further violence.

The crackdown intensified on July 28, with security forces killing at least three protesters in Gwadar and injuring dozens more. On July 29, police used tear gas to disperse demonstrators, with reports of security forces firing on protesters on the outskirts of Gwadar on July 30.

Since July 27, the Balochistan government has blocked roads and highways and cut off internet access, isolating Gwadar – a city once hailed for its potential as an emerging port similar to Dubai. Now, it stands as a bone of contention between ethnic Baloch, the federal government of Pakistan, and Beijing.

In this impoverished, dusty coastal town, which serves as a hub for the much discussed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, China has invested a considerable amount in infrastructure and development, bringing the town into the limelight. Still, the indigenous residents of Gwadar and ethnic Baloch complain that their resources are being plundered with little benefit to them.

The Baloch have engaged in peaceful political activism against both Islamabad and China, while insurgents have also targeted Chinese interests with violent attacks. The ongoing unrest casts a shadow over the town’s future and raises concerns about its stability and the viability of Chinese investment.

In recent years, China has faced significant security challenges in Pakistan, with insurgents and Islamist militants frequently attacking Chinese workers, and the general public appearing increasingly unhappy with Chinese investment. Since 2021, Gwadar has seen multiple large-scale protests, with residents voicing grievances about being deprived of basic civic rights and necessities of life, despite the launch of CPEC almost a decade ago.

Despite promises and grand claims that Gwadar would transform into a city akin to Shenzhen, Singapore, or Dubai, the reality remains starkly different. Today, Gwadar is still heavily dependent on neighboring Iran for electricity, while its nearly 100,000 residents rely on natural sources such as rain and traditional dams for water.

In recent months, the Baloch Yakjehti Committee has emerged as a harsh critic of Chinese investment in Gwadar. The BYC is an influential and popular group in Balochistan, largely due to its peaceful struggle for Baloch rights. It vocally addresses human rights issues plaguing Balochistan, especially enforced disappearances, custodial killings, and the exploitation of Balochistan’s resources. The BYC’s agenda resonates deeply with the Baloch public, which is why the group has earned considerable trust in Balochistan in a remarkably short time.

The BYC’s main demand is an end to so-called enforced disappearances in Balochistan, which the group’s leadership rightly calls illegal and unconstitutional. The BYC leadership has repeatedly emphasized that people suspected of unlawful activities should face due process in a court of law under the constitution of Pakistan instead of being disappeared or killed.

The Balochistan government’s violent response to peaceful protesters last week not only violated articles 15 and 16 of the Constitution of Pakistan, which guarantee freedom of movement and the right to assemble peacefully, but also represents a failure on the government’s part to engage with one of the most popular peaceful rights movements in Balochistan.

Balochistan has been hard hit by a violent separatist insurgency for the last two decades, the longest and most violent episode in the region’s history compared to the previous four insurgencies. The economic and social reforms undertaken in the early 1970s by Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto should have served as a roadmap for containing the current insurgency in Balochistan. Instead, Pakistani rulers have embarked on even more political adventures, including forcefully disappearing political activists, banning political parties, and cracking down on peaceful rights movements.

In recent times, a popular peaceful rights movement in the form of the BYC has gained the trust and attention of not only the Baloch population – from Balochistan to Karachi and Dera Ghazi Khan in southern Punjab, where a huge population of Baloch lives – but also other political stakeholders in Balochistan, regardless of their stance on Pakistan’s parliamentary politics. Both hardline nationalists who reject Pakistan’s parliamentary politics and political parties in Balochistan deeply respect the BYC because of its considerable public support. However, the state’s attitude toward the BYC seems hostile.

BYC is highly regarded by the masses because it speaks about their genuine issues, particularly enforced disappearances that have plagued Balochistan for two decades. The failure of various governments to resolve these issues has deepened mistrust between the center and Baloch youth. This erosion of confidence in Baloch parliamentary parties has led the public to support alternate voices like the BYC, which has refrained from participating in elections or joining assemblies in Pakistan.

Despite this, the BYC has been attempting to find solutions within the framework of the constitution of Pakistan. For this reason, the group organized a month-long sit-in in Islamabad from December to January, where they were also mistreated. The abuse of Baloch women and elders by Islamabad police conveyed a disappointing and negative message, and likely served as motivation for later violent attacks in Balochistan.

Another reason the BYC has gained public trust, especially among young Baloch women, is its indirect fight against patriarchy and gender inequality, which are deeply rooted in Baloch society. For the first time, a peaceful rights movement is led by young women, who make up the majority of BYC supporters. These young women have challenged the cultural status quo and outdated traditions, as well as the power corridors in Pakistan. They have inspired ordinary Baloch by removing the fear that has long held them back.

Movements like the BYC are rare in the region, particularly because women are at the forefront. Many of these young women are driven by personal victimization; for instance, BYC organizer Dr. Mahrang Baloch, a general surgeon, lost her father to enforced disappearance. Her personal experience and commitment to the cause resonate deeply with ordinary Baloch.

Engaging leaders like Mahrang Baloch and having a political dialogue with the BYC represented a crucial opportunity for Pakistan’s political and military leadership, which has long dreamed of talking to Baloch nationalists to find a solution to Balochistan’s conundrum. However, due to a lack of political seriousness in Balochistan, this opportunity has been nearly missed.

The provincial government of Balochistan likely missed this chance deliberately, as the current government representatives in Balochistan do not believe in political dialogue. Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti, a staunch supporter of the powerful military and Pakistan’s former caretaker interior minister just before the elections, was brought into power through what many see as hijacked elections. This process was widely viewed as a violation of democratic principles and Pakistan’s election rules. His and his administration’s reliance on violence to address public grievances and maintain power has led some to describe them as artificial leaders, having used coercion rather than democratic processes to secure their positions.

The state’s harsh treatment of the BYC last week has only reinforced the narrative that peaceful activism has no place in Balochistan. This will ultimately benefit the Baloch separatist insurgents, who have long said that peaceful activism is futile in Pakistan. By using force against a peaceful movement with large public support, the Pakistani government risks driving more Baloch youth toward a violent insurgency.

This will, over the years, create greater challenges not only for Islamabad in tackling Balochistan’s two-decade-long insurgency and finding a solution to the province’s issues but also for China in investing in Balochistan, especially in Gwadar.
Pakistan: Respect Rights in Response to Balochistan March (Human Rights Watch)
Human Rights Watch [7/31/2024 7:38 AM, Staff, 2.1M, Neutral]
Pakistani authorities should exercise restraint in responding to demonstrations in Balochistan province, release all detained for peaceful protest, and restore internet access, Human Rights Watch said today.

Since July 28, 2024, Pakistani authorities have detained hundreds of people in response to the Baloch National Gathering, a march seeking to raise awareness of human rights concerns in Balochistan. Some protesters reportedly attacked security forces, killing one soldier and injuring others. Baloch activists have alleged that government security forces have used excessive force to prevent protesters from reaching the port city of Gwadar, the end point of the march. Government authorities have imposed an internet shutdown on Gwadar.

“Pakistani authorities should uphold the right to peaceful protest and assembly, and when nonviolent means prove ineffective use only the minimum force needed,” said Patricia Gossman, associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “It’s vitally important for the authorities to protect protesters’ rights while preventing the situation in Balochistan from spiraling out of control.”

The Baloch National Gathering has called for accountability for the numerous cases of enforced disappearances in Balochistan over many years. Such “disappearances” have long been a feature of the conflict between the government and armed militants in Balochistan. Pakistan’s security forces have also carried out enforced disappearances to silence peaceful critics of the government.

The nongovernmental organization Human Rights Commission of Pakistan reported that some of the march’s organizers received threats to call off the march or face arrest or enforced disappearance. Since July 28, protesters have blocked roads, demanding the release of detained colleagues.

The United Nations Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials provide that security forces must never use excessive force. In dispersing violent assemblies, firearms may only be used when other less harmful means are not practicable but must still be used to the minimum extent necessary. Law enforcement officers may only intentionally resort to lethal force when strictly unavoidable to protect life.

Government authorities generally claim that internet shutdowns are necessary to protect public safety and curb the spread of misinformation. However, this sweeping measure denies ordinary people access to lifesaving information, interferes with access to health care, and restricts the ability of journalists to upload photos and videos documenting the government response to the protest. International human rights law prohibits broad, indiscriminate, and indefinite restrictions on fundamental freedoms, including the right to free expression and to provide and receive information, Human Rights Watch said.

The Pakistan government needs to address the issue of enforced disappearances, which are considered to be a continuing offense. International law defines an enforced disappearance as the detention of anyone by state forces or their agents who refuse to acknowledge the detention or whereabouts of the person, placing them outside the protection of the law.

Activists in Balochistan say that there have been 7,000 enforced disappearances in the province since 2004. Since March 2011, Pakistan’s Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances has received thousands of complaints of enforced disappearances across the country. The victims are most often from the marginalized sections of society, and once forcibly disappeared are often at risk of torture and extrajudicial execution. The government has not held anyone responsible for disappearances accountable.

“Balochistan has the highest number of enforced disappearances in all of Pakistan, with the authorities willfully ignoring calls for accountability for years,” Gossman said. “The authorities should end these abuses, prosecute those responsible, and provide redress for the victims and their families.”
Pakistan’s cultural capital sees record rainfall, flooding streets and affecting life (AP)
AP [8/1/2024 3:36 AM, Babar Dogar, 456K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s cultural city of Lahore saw record-high rainfall early Thursday, leaving at least one person dead, while flooding streets, disrupting traffic and affecting normal life, officials said.

The downpour started before dawn and is expected to continue for a week at intervals, according to the National Disaster Management Authority. In an advisory, it said the rains are likely to cause flash flooding and landslides.

The monsoon rains also lashed Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, and other areas.

The latest spell of rains in Lahore was so heavy that it quickly flooded many streets and rainwater entered some wards in the Jinnah and Services hospitals in the capital of Punjab province, causing problems for patients undergoing treatment there.

At least one person died after being electrocuted in the Nishat Colony neighborhood, police said.

Some areas in the city received a record-high 353 millimeters (14 inches) of rainfall in a few hours, breaking a 44-year-old record in Lahore, according to the water and sanitation agency. In a statement, it said efforts were underway to pump rainwater off of main roads.

Drainage systems quickly became overwhelmed after the rains, flooding several residential areas, officials said. The rainwater entered scores of homes in various parts of the city, residents said.

Monsoon rains have returned to Pakistan as the country is still struggling to recover from devastating 2022 floods that affected 33 million people and killed 1,739. But weather forecasters say the country will receive less heavy rains compared to 2022, when climate-induced downpours swelled rivers.

Pakistan recorded its wettest April since 1961, with more than double the usual rainfall for the month. Weather forecasters and scientists have blamed climate change for the unusually heavy monsoon rains.
India
What to Know About the Deadly Landslides in Southern India (New York Times)
New York Times [7/31/2024 4:14 PM, Anupreeta DasPragati K.B. and Hari Kumar, 831K, Neutral]
Earlier this week, multiple landslides hit the Wayanad district of India’s Kerala state, killing at least 144 people and injuring hundreds of others. The landslides were caused by torrential rains that lasted for days, uprooting trees, burying villages and cutting off roads and communication lines. State officials described it as one of the worst natural disasters Kerala has ever witnessed.

Rescue workers continue to recover and identify bodies, and with more than 190 people still missing, the death toll is likely to rise. The state government has set up temporary hospitals and dozens of shelters, which are housing more than 8,000 displaced people. It also sent rations and clean water to the area, and declared a two-day mourning period on Tuesday.

What led to the disaster?

Wayanad is a hilly region in the northeastern part of Kerala known for its natural beauty and wildlife. A big tourist destination, its slopes are covered by tea and spice plantations and its valleys contain rice paddies.

But the elevation, the steepness of the slopes, a thick bed of loose soil that sits atop hard rock and rivulets created by heavy rainfall create the perfect conditions for landslides, said S. Sreekumar, a geologist who has worked with government bodies on disaster management. New construction and irrigation methods used by farmers have also compromised the natural drainage system, he said.

“There are high slopes and people are settled at the base of the slope,” Mr. Sreekumar said. Extreme and more frequent rainfall owing to climate change are also “a big contributor, no doubt about that.”

The area experienced unusually heavy rainfall for 48 hours, much more than what the India Meteorological Department had forecast.

Does Kerala have a lot of natural disasters?

Kerala is one of India’s most developed and populous states, with relatively high per-capita income and education levels. It is prone to natural calamities because of its topography and the annual monsoons. A construction boom fueled by the state’s rapid growth has made it even more vulnerable to flooding by obstructing natural pathways for heavy rains to run off. That leads to severe damage and heavy economic losses.

More than 14 percent of Kerala’s land area is prone to floods, and for some districts, it’s as high as 50 percent.

Landslides are a major problem along the Western Ghats, a mountain range that stretches across several states and includes Wayanad and other districts in Kerala. In 2022, India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences reported that Kerala had recorded the highest number of landslides in the country over the previous seven years.

One of Kerala’s biggest natural disasters occurred in 2018, when heavy floods and landslides killed 500 people. The World Meteorological Organization listed it as one of five major extreme flooding events globally between 2015 and 2019.

In October 2021, Kerala witnessed the highest-ever rainfall on record for the month, according to the Kerala Disaster Management Authority. Within a roughly two-week period that month, heavy rains took 57 lives, and fully or partially damaged thousands of homes.

What can be done?

In 2011, Madhav Gadgil, an ecologist and then-chairman of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, recommended zoning off most of the land including and surrounding Wayanad as ecologically fragile, which would have curtailed development activity. However, the Gadgil Report, as it came to be known, became controversial, with some lawmakers arguing that it was too restrictive given Kerala’s dense population. The plan wasn’t implemented.

Since this week’s disaster, there have been calls on social media and from the Indian press to revive it. Other studies have called for banning construction too close to natural drainage systems and removing makeshift dams for irrigating crops before the rainy season to minimize flooding.
Deadly Flood Exposes India’s Weak Project Planning, Experts Say (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [7/31/2024 7:56 AM, Lou Del Bello and Sanjai P R, 1985K, Negative]
The deadly floods triggered by heavy rains in the southern Indian state of Kerala were the latest in a streak of disasters that could have been avoided through better planning, according to experts.

While the extent of the disaster is hard to ascertain, media reports pin the death toll at more than 150, as rescuers wade through mud and debris looking for hundreds still missing.

Most homes across the Wayanad district, which was struck by a landslide in the early hours of Tuesday after a prolonged spell of heavy rain, have been razed to the ground, said Samshad Marakkar, president of the local district council. What is left, he said, is beyond repair.

As India strives to modernize its most remote regions, ecologically fragile areas like Wayanad are becoming increasingly prone to unplanned development, which according to researchers increases their vulnerability to extreme events.

Disasters like this week’s in Kerala follow a similar pattern to those seen in other parts of the country, such as the sinking of the town of Joshimath in mountainous Uttarakhand, said Abinash Mohanty, sector head for climate change and sustainability with research firm IPE-Global.

“These are disasters in the making, rather than one-off events,” he said. When new, poorly designed settlements burden an already fragile environment, “a small shock or stress is enough to aggravate the situation and you recurrently witness events like Wayanad’s.”

Researchers in India have been mapping landslide-prone areas across the country for some time, and preparedness measures are in place in Kerala, a coastal state prone to extreme weather. But Mohanty said current development planning methods are outdated.

“You need to do hypergranular climate risk assessments to map the cascading impacts of these hazards,” which include weather changes as well as an analysis of land fragility.

The torrential rains of the past two days, which climate scientists predict are going to intensify in the future, are one example of such unaccounted stressors.

Under climate change, the air becomes warmer and can hold more moisture, said said Yogesh Patil, chief executive of India’s largest private weather forecaster, SkyMet. This leads to the development of vertical clouds that can discharge very heavy rains in short amount of time.

“Rainfall which usually occurs in a span of 24 to 48 hours is happening in a span of two to three hours,” he said. “A heavy downpour is more dangerous in hilly regions as the water is channelized into a stream, and decrease in forest cover increases this vulnerability.”

As relief efforts continue in western Kerala, Samshad Marakkar said disaster-struck communities now expect a proper rehabilitation and relocation package, because reconstruction in the area is simply impossible.

“It will be nearly impossible to rebuild houses in the same locality. There is no land remaining, but a river,” he said.
Hopes of finding more survivors in the mud and debris wane after landslides in India kill 194 (AP)
AP [8/1/2024 2:31 AM, Rishi Lekhi and Rafiq Maqbool, 456K, Negative]
Hopes of finding more than 180 missing people alive waned as rescue workers searched through mud and debris for a third day Thursday after landslides set off by torrential rains killed at least 194 people in southern India.

The rescue work was challenging in a forested, hilly area while more rain fell, said P.M Manoj, a spokesman for Kerala state’s top elected official. Nearly 40 bodies were found downstream after being swept some 30 kilometers (20 miles) down the Chaliyar River from the area in Wayanad district where the main landslides occurred. Body parts were also recovered.

Torrents of mud and water swept through tea estates and villages in hilly areas in the district early Tuesday. They flattened houses and destroyed bridges, and rescuers had to pull out people stuck under mud and debris. “This is one of the worst natural calamities Kerala state has ever witnessed,” Kerala’s top elected official, Pinarayi Vijayan, said.

Manoj said 187 people were unaccounted for as of Thursday. In addition to the dead and missing, 186 people were injured. Local media reported most of the victims were tea estate workers.

More than 5,500 people have been rescued, Vijayan said, with some 1,100 rescue personnel, helicopters and heavy equipment involved.

The army was constructing a temporary bridge after the main bridge in one of the worst-affected areas was swept away. Images from the site show rescue workers making their way through muck and floodwaters, while a land excavator was clearing the debris.

O.S. Jerry, a cardamom estate manager, said he regularly traveled through the district. “There was a lovely school over here,” he said, adding that many houses were now gone.

The Mundakkai and Chooralmala areas are destroyed with extreme devastation, Vijayan said.

Manoj said more than 8,300 people have been moved to 82 government-run relief camps. The government is ensuring food delivery and essential items to the relief camps.

Kerala, one of India’s most popular tourist destinations, is prone to heavy rains, flooding and landslides. The Indian Meteorological Department said Wayanad district had up to 28 centimeters (11 inches) of rain on Monday and Tuesday.

Heavy rains also wreaked havoc in other parts of India this week.

New Delhi, the Indian capital, shut schools on Thursday after torrential downpours the previous day submerged roads, left residents stranded and killed at least two people, news agency Press Trust of India reported. More rains were expected this week.

In the mountainous state of Himachal Pradesh, popular with tourists, three people were killed and around 40 were reported missing after heavy rains and two cloudbursts washed away homes, flooded roads and damaged infrastructure, authorities told PTI on Thursday. Four people were also killed Wednesday in the neighboring Uttarakhand state following heavy rains.

Meanwhile, at least 13 people, including three children, were killed in lightning strikes in eastern Bihar state on Thursday, a statement from the chief minister’s office said. Most of the victims had gone to plant paddy in the fields when lightning struck them.

India regularly has severe floods during the monsoon season, which runs between June and September and brings most of South Asia’s annual rainfall. The rains are crucial for rainfed crops planted during the season, but often cause extensive damage.

Scientists say monsoons are becoming more erratic because of climate change and global warming.
Rain in Delhi, northern India kills 11, hundreds missing (Reuters)
Reuters [8/1/2024 3:55 AM, Saurabh Sharma and Tanvi Mehta, 5.2M, Negative]
Torrential rain is causing heavy damage in northern India, killing at least 10 people and leaving hundreds of pilgrims stranded in the Himalayas, officials said on Thursday.

The capital Delhi was lashed by a bout of intense rain on Wednesday evening, with a total 147 mm (5.8 inches) recorded in eastern parts of the city and its suburbs by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

At least five people died, according to local media.

Three people have died and parts of two bridges were washed away due to a cloudburst in Uttarakhand state, officials said, adding that bad weather in the hilly terrain was hampering communications. Earlier local media said four people were killed.

Three hundred pilgrims were stranded in different locations on the Kedarnath route - a trek to a Hindu pilgrimage site - and a patch of the national highway was washed out, district official Saurabh Gaharwar told Reuters by phone.

Uttarakhand, which is prone to flash floods and landslides, was ravaged by record rain in 2013, and nearly 6,000 of tens of thousands of Hindu devotees on pilgrimages went missing.

In neighbouring Himachal Pradesh state, two people died and nearly 50 people were missing after torrential rain led to floods, authorities said.

Visuals shared by the state chief minister showed rescue workers crossing streams by rope, as muddy water gushed through rocks between hills.

"The situation is quite bad there and we are trying to pull out people, dead bodies (if any) from the debris," Jyoti Rana, a district official in the capital Shimla, told Reuters.

Torrential rains in the mountains of India and neighbouring Pakistan and Nepal over the past few years have been attributed to climate change by some experts.

Earlier this week, landslides swept through tea estates and villages in southern India’s Kerala , killing at least 178 people after unexpectedly heavy rain.

In Delhi, water was seen leaking from the newly-constructed parliament building, according to a post on X by opposition leader Akhilesh Yadav.

Delhi has experienced a series of extreme weather events in the past few months, from sizzling temperatures to floods and heavy rainfall that caused a roof collapse at the city’s airport.
India summons Sri Lanka envoy to protest over ship collision that killed one (Reuters)
Reuters [8/1/2024 5:01 AM, Shilpa Jamkhandikar and Uditha Jaysinghe, 42991K, Negative]
India summoned the Sri Lankan envoy on Thursday to protest following a collision between one of its fishing boats and a Sri Lankan naval vessel that killed a fisherman, with a second missing, authorities said.

The collision took place 5 nautical miles north of Katchatheevu, an island at the focus of contention between the neighbours, although India ceded it to Sri Lanka 50 years ago. Indian fishermen are barred from the waters around the island.

"The government of India has always emphasised the need to deal with issues pertaining to fishermen in a humane and humanitarian manner," India’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

Sri Lanka did not want an escalation of the issue and was looking to work with India for a solution, Foreign Minister Ali Sabry told Reuters.

"We understand this is about livelihoods and lives," he added. "We would continue to talk to our Indian counterparts and find a permanent solution."

One of the four fishermen on the boat died and another was missing, while the rest were brought ashore, the foreign ministry added.

India ceded the island to Sri Lanka in 1974, followed by a pact barring its fishermen in 1976, but unhappiness over the transfer and the abridged rights have spurred two as yet unresolved Supreme Court challenges in the last 20 years.

The fishermen of both nations have occasionally violated the pact on the waters around the uninhabited island.
China, India to speed up border talks, says Chinese foreign ministry (Reuters)
Reuters [7/31/2024 8:07 PM, Bernard Orr, 5.2M, Neutral]
China and India will speed up negotiations around a disputed border and continue to maintain peace and tranquility in the areas, China’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

Officials from both countries held the 30th meeting of the China-India Border Affairs Consultation and Coordination Working Mechanism in New Delhi on Thursday, centered on hashing out a long simmering dispute over their shared Himalayan border, much of it poorly demarcated.

Relations had soured, but recently got back on track after leaders from both countries met to resolve issues.
India-China Military Tensions Persist Even as Their Trade Surges (VOA)
VOA [7/31/2024 10:54 AM, Anjana Pasricha, 4032K, Neutral]
As tensions between India and China persist with tens of thousands of soldiers confronting each other along their disputed Himalayan borders for a fifth year, analysts say they see few signs of a reduction in military tensions between the Asian rivals despite calls from both sides to stabilize ties. But trade between the two countries has surged.

“The ground reality is that the Chinese are focusing on building infrastructure in the Himalayas to enhance their conventional deterrence capabilities. They are building roads, bridges and other military-related construction. That is a huge concern for India,” Srikanth Kondapalli, dean of the School of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University told VOA.

Ties between the Asian rivals nosedived sharply following a clash in June 2020 between their soldiers. Backed by heavy artillery and fighter jets, an estimated 50,000 troops from each side still remain amassed at hotspots in the Himalayas, where they share a long, poorly demarcated border.

“I have to be honest, our relations with China are not doing very well,” Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyan Jaishankar told reporters at a news conference in Tokyo on Monday where he was attending a Quad meeting. “They are not good; they are not normal right now.”

Jaishankar’s remarks came days after he met his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of a summit meeting of the ASEAN bloc in Laos last week where both sides emphasized the need to normalize ties.

In a statement after the meeting, Wang said that "it is in the interests of both sides to get China-India relations back on track." Jaishankar spoke of the need to address their bilateral issues “with a sense of purpose and urgency.”

But analysts point out there are no signs of de-escalation along the borders. Although soldiers withdrew from several conflict areas between 2020 and 2022, there has been little progress in resolving their disputes at other friction points that are claimed by both sides.

“We have had 21 meetings between military commanders from the two countries since the clash four years ago to resolve the issue, but progress has been marginal,” Kondapalli pointed out.

Even as the Indian and Chinese Himalayan border continues to be volatile, India’s imports from China have grown steadily despite strict curbs that New Delhi imposed on economic ties with China following the 2020 clash.

India had stepped up scrutiny of Chinese investments, blocked virtually all Chinese visitors, halted major Chinese projects in the country and blocked Chinese apps like TikTok.

Despite those restrictions, Beijing emerged as New Delhi’s top trading partner last year. India’s imports from China stood at more than $100 billion last year. India’s exports to China on the other hand were only $16 billion.

“When India put these curbs in 2020, the government strategy was that we should reduce our import dependence on China,” said Biswajit Dhar, trade analyst and Distinguished Professor at the Council for Social Development in New Delhi. “But that has not happened, so that strategy has come to grief and now there is a realization that there is no running away from the fact that it is difficult to decouple from China, which remains the world’s largest manufacturer.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led a push to make India an alternative manufacturing hub to China and companies like Apple have set up production facilities in the country in recent years. But several industries, including new factories coming up in the country remain reliant on imports from China, including machinery needed in manufacturing.

Industry groups have called on the government to relax strict visa curbs on Chinese nationals as they say they need Chinese engineers and technicians to install equipment and train Indian workers. New Delhi is considering speeding up visas for Chinese workers, according to media reports.

However, the government said it will not relax its curbs on Chinese investments after its Economic Survey, which highlights policy initiatives, argued in favor of attracting Chinese funds to address India’s growing trade deficit.

“To boost Indian manufacturing and plug India into the global supply chain, it is inevitable that India plugs itself into China’s supply chain. Whether we do so by relying solely on imports or partially through Chinese investments is a choice that India has to make,” the Economic Survey, released last week, stated.

India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal however told reporters that there will be no rethink on Chinese investments.

While China says the two countries should resume normal exchanges even as they continue discussions on their territorial disputes, India maintains that putting ties back on track will be contingent on resolving the border standoff.

Analysts say New Delhi faces a dilemma. “The question is will India stick to its stand of not normalizing ties until the border issues are settled or whether they will modify their strict economic policy toward China,” according to Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research foundation in New Delhi told VOA. “But there is a growing feeling that we are boxed into a situation which is not comfortable for us.”
Vietnamese Prime Minister Arrives in India For Three-day Visit (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [7/31/2024 2:37 AM, Sebastian Strangio, 1156K, Positive]
Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh last night arrived in India on a three-day state visit at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the aim of consolidating the recent advances in economic and security relations between the two nations.

According to a report by the Communist Party of Vietnam mouthpiece Nhan Dan, the Vietnamese leader is scheduled to hold talks and meetings with Modi, President Droupadi Murmu, and the speakers of both houses of the Indian parliament.

The visit is “expected to strengthen bilateral cooperation in traditional fields and expand to potential fields such as electronics, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, green economy, digital economy, artificial intelligence, semi-conductor, new materials and essential minerals,” the report stated.

It will also contribute “to enhancing political trust and deepening the multi-faceted cooperation between the two countries” and give them an “to share views on security and strategic issues in the region and the world and reiterate their mutual support in multilateral forums of common interest.”

Chinh’s visit is the first by a Vietnamese or Indian prime minister to the other country since the two nations established their comprehensive strategic partnership in September 2016, when India became the third nation to attain this status after China (2008) and Russia (2012). These three nations have since been joined at the top tier of Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy by South Korea, the United States, Japan, and Australia. Together, this roster of key partners, which could soon be joined by Indonesia and Singapore, encapsulates Vietnam’s flexible and omnidirectional foreign policy doctrine.

India forms an important, though often overlooked, part of this strategy. For India, too, Vietnam occupies a key position in both its Act East Policy, which seeks to advance relations with the nations of Southeast Asia, and its Indo-Pacific vision. This, as Amb. Saurabh Kumar, Secretary (East) of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs put it in 2022, “envisages a free, open, inclusive, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific, built on a rules-based order and with sustainable and transparent infrastructure investments.”

Since the establishment of the comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016, trade between the two sides has grown by around two-and-a-half times, reaching $14.8 billion in 2023. As with India’s relations with Southeast Asia in general, economic cooperation is modest compared to its potential, making it a logical focus of future cooperation. As a point of comparison, Vietnam’s bilateral trade with China totaled $171.2 billion in 2023; its trade with the United States came to around $125 billion.

The potential has been realized to a greater extent in bilateral defense cooperation, which has been motivated by an overlapping concern about China’s growing maritime power and assertiveness. In June 2022, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his Vietnamese counterpart Gen. Phan Van Giang signed a “Joint Vision Statement on India-Vietnam Defense Partnership Towards 2030,” which was intended to “significantly enhance the scope and scale of existing defense cooperation” by the end of the decade, as the Indian Defense Ministry said in a statement. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Mutual Logistics Support, “the first such major agreement which Vietnam has signed with any country.”

Unsurprisingly, given the focus of the two nations’ concerns, most of this has focused on the maritime domain. Two Indian Naval Ships, INS Shivalik and INS Kamorta visited Ho Chi Minh City Port in November 2022. They were followed by the Navy destroyer INS Delhi and the multirole frigate INS Satpura, which paid a port call in Danang, central Vietnam, in May 2023. The following month, New Delhi handed the domestically built missile corvette INS Kirpan to Vietnam’s navy, the first time that India had gifted a fully operational corvette to another country. The two nations have also participated in a number of multilateral and bilateral military exercises, including in the South China Sea.

India is also becoming an increasingly important source of arms for Vietnam. Recent months have brought reports that the two nations are in talks for Vietnam’s possible purchase of the Indo-Russian Brahmos supersonic cruise missile. There are also reports that Hanoi is interested in India’s Akash surface-to-air missile system.

Given the growing strategic convergence between the two nations, it will not be surprising to see a reciprocal state visit by Modi in the near future. Over the past two years, Vietnam has hosted the heads of state or government from six of its seven comprehensive strategic partners. Modi is the only one of them not to tread the red carpet in Hanoi.
‘New wave’: Why suspected rebel attacks are rising in Kashmir’s Jammu area (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [8/1/2024 12:30 AM, Staff, 20.9M, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told parliament last month that the armed rebellion in Indian-administered Kashmir was in its final stages due to his government’s “multipronged” strategy, implemented since his government scrapped the region’s special status five years ago.

Three days later, on July 6, two Indian Army personnel and four suspected rebels were killed in two separate gunfights in the disputed region’s Kulgam district, raising questions about Modi’s claim.

Then, on July 8, suspected rebels ambushed an army vehicle and killed five soldiers in Kathua, a district located in the region’s Jammu division towards the south.

A week later, four more Indian soldiers, including an army officer, were killed in another gunfight with suspected rebels in the forests of Jammu’s Doda district.

Last week, the army said it thwarted a major attack in Jammu’s Rajouri district when a soldier was injured in the predawn attack by suspected rebels at an army camp. Following the attack, a search operation was launched in which one suspected rebel was killed.

And on Saturday, one Indian soldier was killed and another wounded after the army said it foiled an infiltration bid in Kupwara in the north, a district along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border dividing India and Pakistan, who rule over parts of Kashmir but claim it in full.

The Indian Army in a statement said a “Pakistani intruder” was also killed in Saturday’s gunfight and two Indian soldiers were wounded.

While there has been an uptick in attacks by suspected rebels in Indian-administered Kashmir in recent months, the theatre of violence appears to be shifting southwards to Jammu, a Hindu-majority area that has experienced relative peace in the three decades of armed rebellion against New Delhi’s rule.

In 2022 and 2023, there were just three suspected rebel attacks on Indian security forces in the Jammu area. This year, at least seven have already been recorded so far.

Of at least 16 Indian soldiers and policemen killed in different attacks in the Indian-administered Kashmir this year, at least 10 of the fatalities were in Jammu.

Since 2021, the disputed region witnessed the killing of 124 security forces personnel, at least 51 of them in Jammu. And it is not just the security forces.

On June 9, the day Modi was sworn in as prime minister for his third term, nine civilians were killed and dozens wounded when suspected rebels attacked a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims, forcing it to fall down a Himalayan gorge in the Reasi district of Jammu area.

“This place had been mostly safe,” Muhammad Sultan, 55, a farmer in Jammu’s Doda district told Al Jazeera. “But all these attacks have created tension and unease in the entire area.”

Another Jammu resident, Shamsheer Singh, said residents are unable to sleep due to the repeated tensions and gunfights in the area.

“The attacks are making everyone feel unsafe. This is not a normal situation,” the 65-year-old said. “We lock ourselves in homes before the sunset. We have never felt so fearful.”

‘New wave of militancy’

In August 2019, when Modi stripped Indian-administered Kashmir of its limited autonomy and brought it under New Delhi’s direct rule, his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defended the move, claiming it would eliminate armed rebellion and bring economic prosperity.

However, five years down the line, security in the region continues to be a headache for Modi’s government, which now has a reduced mandate in parliament.

According to experts, the violence in the region now shifting to Jammu marks a “new wave of militancy”, showing patterns not witnessed in the 35-year-long rebellion.

“Guerrilla-trained militants are striking with a high element of surprise in the region’s forested mountains at short intervals,” Zafar Choudhary, a political analyst based in Jammu, told Al Jazeera. “Their targets are mainly the members of security forces.”

Choudhary said that the resurgence of violence following the withdrawal of Kashmir’s special status in 2019 appears to be a well thought-out strategy of the rebel groups to convey that the conflict has not ended by the constitutional changes, as claimed by Indian authorities.

“Since security forces have been able to achieve a remarkable degree of success in Kashmir Valley over the past five years, the militants have brought battle to the mountains of Jammu. These attacks are clear evidence that terrorism in Kashmir is far from over as claimed by the Modi government.”

Experts say the operational space for armed rebel groups has been reduced in the Kashmir Valley due to the government’s counterinsurgency campaign that has seen a high concentration of security forces and reasonably good intelligence, thereby disrupting the rebels’ organisation and local logistical networks.

They say India’s strategy forced the armed groups to seek refuge in the treacherous mountains and dense forests in the Jammu area, where carrying out attacks was relatively easy. Moreover, the rebels were also aided by a loosened security grid in Jammu because it had been violence-free for decades.

Pravin Sawhney, an expert on defence matters and editor of Force magazine, told Al Jazeera the situation was grim. He said “the militants, not the Indian Army” are initiating attacks in the Jammu area.

“They [rebels] get to choose the time, location, and scale or quantum of the attack. The Indian Army is merely reacting to whatever intelligence it receives,” he said.

A senior security official in Jammu, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media, told Al Jazeera that the level of alertness and adherence to the army’s standard operating procedure (SOP) during troop movement was comparatively slack as compared with the valley area of Kashmir, making it easier for the rebels to ambush convoys of soldiers.

Reduced troops due to China tensions

Ajai Sahni, founder and executive director of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal, said there had been a “thinning of security forces” in the Jammu area after a large number of soldiers were moved to the frontiers along India’s border with China.

The deployment along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as the 3,500km-long (2,174 miles) de facto border between the two Asian giants is known, has made it easier for the Kashmiri rebels to operate, he said.

But Sahni thinks adding forces along the China border is “necessary” given the escalating threats and movements by the Chinese army along the disputed frontier.

In the summer of 2020, at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed along the LAC in rare hand-to-hand combat, bringing the two nations to the verge of war. Repeated talks between the two armies – and their governments – to defuse the tensions have not made much headway.

Sahni said one of the key challenges that Indian forces face in Jammu is the “need for manpower-intensive counterinsurgency operations”.

“The region is fairly large. It is mountainous and densely forested. And when you take that manpower away, the armed forces are immediately at a considerable disadvantage,” he told Al Jazeera.

Hindu-majority area

According to the 2011 census, Hindus form nearly 29 percent of Indian-administered Kashmir’s 12.5 million population. In Jammu, however, they are a majority, with 66 percent of the region being Hindu, who do not essentially identify themselves with the Kashmir cause.

Then there are Muslim tribal groups in Jammu, such as the Gujjars and the Paharis, who have historically been unsympathetic to the armed rebellion, with army officials themselves acknowledging that support from these communities has been crucial in fighting the rebels in Jammu area.

It is for these reasons that Jammu has been nearly free of separatist violence for decades. But as anger among the rebels over the Indian rule worsened after New Delhi’s 2019 move, Jammu also saw a spike in attacks, forcing the government to revive the Village Defence Guards (VDGs), a decades-old civilian militia.

Originally set up in 1995 in the districts of the Jammu area, the VDGs (then known as Village Defence Committees) were tasked with combatting the armed rebellion. The VDGs then had 4,000 members and 27,000 volunteers – the numbers are lesser now and not officially known.

In the early 2000s, as the rebellion began to dwindle and rebel groups began to lose their influence, the militia was disbanded, only to be revived in January last year.

Moreover, the communities in Jammu opposed to the rebellion also had a history of cooperating and collaborating with the Indian security forces, mostly through intelligence networks.

“Militant movements used to be spotted and eliminated before they could carry out an operation,” Sahni told Al Jazeera, explaining how the networks worked. But he fears those networks have largely broken down and “become unreliable” due to the government’s “unpopular policies in recent years”.

This was made clear by the custodial death of three tribal Muslim men in Jammu’s Topa Pir village in Poonch district in December last year.

Following a suspected rebel attack that killed four soldiers, the three men were picked up by the army and allegedly tortured to death in custody, causing widespread anger and deepening distrust between the military and the local population, and disrupting the intelligence network on the ground.

‘Pakistan’s attempt to regain Kashmir narrative’

The picturesque northern districts of Jammu, including Poonch, Rajouri and Doda, have a Muslim majority. Their hilly terrain and dense forests as well as proximity to the Pakistan border make cross-border infiltration easier for the rebels and “Pakistan-sponsored” fighters, as alleged by India.

“Since Hindus are a minority in northern Jammu, the militants are attacking Hindus there,” Ashok Koul, the BJP general secretary in Indian-administered Kashmir, told Al Jazeera.

Some experts view the recent rebel attacks as Pakistan’s alleged attempt to regain control of the Kashmir narrative, which, according to them, has been largely rendered inconsequential in recent years, particularly since the removal of Kashmir’s special status in 2019.

Koul alleged that Pakistan is helping the rebels carry out attacks to destabilise Jammu. “There was peace in Jammu, which is why the militants moved from Kashmir to Jammu,” he said.

But Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to the United Nations, the United States and the United Kingdom, told Al Jazeera the BJP is “only trying to externalise the problem and their failure which is rooted in India’s occupation” of the region.

“India’s illegal annexation of Jammu and Kashmir in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions in 2019 doesn’t change the reality that it is an internationally recognised dispute. Since then, New Delhi has used force and fraud in Jammu and Kashmir but has been unable to weaken the will of the Kashmiri people for freedom from Indian occupation,” she said.

Last week, the Pakistani foreign ministry said “bravado and jingoism undermine regional peace, and are totally counterproductive for resolution of longstanding disputes” between the two countries, especially on the core issue of Kashmir.

“Instead of maligning others for terrorism, India should reflect on its own campaign of orchestrating targeted assassinations, subversion and terrorism in foreign territories,” it said.

But defence analyst Sawhney believes Kashmir is not a military conflict, and that it should be resolved through politics and diplomacy.

“They [government] need to find a political and international solution to this. It is not a military problem. It is not the military’s job to solve your political or diplomatic problems,” he told Al Jazeera.
India relied on coal and gas power to cope with heatwave (Reuters – opinion)
Reuters [7/31/2024 10:52 AM, John Kemp, 42991K, Positive]
India ramped up coal-fired and gas-fired generation to meet record load during the prolonged heatwave in May and June, underscoring the electricity system’s continuing reliance on fossil fuels despite rapid growth in renewables.

The transmission network met record loads in both May and June, totalling 309 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), up from 275 billion kWh in the same period in 2023 and 270 billion kWh in 2022.

Coal-fired generators surged production to a record 233 billion kWh, from 209 billion kWh in 2023 and 202 billion kWh in 2022, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority.

Gas-fired generators also boosted their output to 10 billion kWh, from 6 billion kWh in 2022, and the highest since 2020.

State-owned and private-sector gas generators responded to government instructions to maximise output as well as the fall in imported gas prices compared with 2023 and 2022.

Gas-fired generators exceeded planned output by 60% in June and 70% in May, as plants ran at the equivalent of full load for more than a quarter of all hours in both months.

As a result, fossil fuel generators satisfied more than 80% of the increase in total load during the pre-monsoon heatwave.

IMPROVED GRID RELIABILITY

With so much extra generation available, the transmission network remained stable despite record airconditioning and refrigeration demand across northern India.

Transmission frequency fell below the minimum acceptable threshold of 49.9 cycles per second (Hertz) just 4.5% of the time in June and 2.3% in May.

Total periods of under-frequency had been cut from 6.5% in June and 9.8% in May 2022, according to performance data from Grid India.

Frequency is the most common used measure of grid stress, and periods of under-frequency show the grid struggling to generate enough to satisfy load.

Fewer, shorter periods of under-frequency this year show there was a more comfortable balance between generation and load, notwithstanding surging temperatures.

PLANNING AND OPERATIONS

India’s fossil generators benefited from extensive planning, ensuring they entered the peak demand period with plentiful stocks that continued to be resupplied up throughout the heatwave.

Generators held a near-record 50 million of coal inventories at the end of April, up from 36 million tonnes at the same point in 2023, and the highest for the time of year since the pandemic in 2020.

During the heatwave, the country’s coal mines despatched a record 145 million tonnes to generators in May and June, up from 133 million tonnes in May and June 2023 and 131 million in 2022.

Mines sent a record number of fully loaded coal trains to power plants, keeping stocks topped up despite record combustion and ensuring plants could start up when ordered by grid controllers.

The number of coal trains or "rakes" despatched to generators averaged 289 per day this year from 259 per day in May-June 2023 and 276 per day in May-June 2022.

Plentiful gas stocks in Europe and cheaper international LNG prices also helped, ensuring generators could afford to buy enough fuel to run plants for many more hours than in the last two years.

FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCE

In the last six years, India has deployed large amounts of renewable generation capacity, especially solar photovoltaic generation.

Renewable capacity has grown at a compound annual rate of 13% since the end of 2018, with solar capacity rising almost 24% per year, compared with annual growth of less than 2% in thermal capacity.

As a result, renewables accounted for a third of all capacity at the end of June 2024, up from a fifth at the of 2018. Fossil generators’ share of total capacity had shrunk to 54% from almost 64% five years earlier.

During the heatwave, however, it was ability to run fossil fuel generators unusually hard, with enough affordable fuel on hand, that kept airconditioners working.
NSB
Bangladesh police lob stun grenades to disperse march (Reuters)
Reuters [7/31/2024 9:25 AM, Ruma Paul and Sudipto Ganguly, 85570K, Negative]
Police in Bangladesh fired tear gas and stun grenades to disperse people who were demonstrating on Wednesday against the excessive use of force by authorities during protests earlier in July that left at least 150 dead.

The unrest is the biggest test facing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, 76, since she won a fourth term in January elections boycotted by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which were also marred by deadly protests.

Police said they used force when people in the northeastern district of Sylhet broke through barricades to march towards for the courts.

"We requested the protesters to move from the road, but they didn’t listen and instead attacked the police, forcing us to disperse them with tear gas and stun grenades," said regional deputy commissioner Azbahar Ali Sheikh.

Police and protesters scuffled in Dhaka, the capital, and the southern port city of Chittagong, witnesses said. It was not immediately clear if there were any fatalities.

At least 10 people, including four journalists, were injured in southern Barishal district, where police used batons to disperse protesters.

Police detained at least seven students in Dhaka near the high court, where lawyers and university teachers joined the demonstrators.

MARCH CALLED BY STUDENT GROUP

Wednesday’s nationwide "March for Justice" was called by the Students Against Discrimination group that was at the forefront of protests against quotas in government jobs.

That initial unrest earlier in July left thousands wounded as security forces fired rubber bullets, tear gas and stun grenades to disperse those gathered.

Although the students agreed to halt their protest after the Supreme Court scrapped most quotas on July 21, they returned recently to the streets to call out the dozens of deaths, arrests, and government intimidation.

"We will also demand a United Nations investigation into the violence," Mohammad Mahin Sarkar, a coordinator of the movement, said in a statement.

International rights groups have condemned close to 10,000 arrests over the past two weeks on charges of involvement in clashes and destruction of government property.

They say Hasina has become increasingly autocratic during her last 15 years in power, which have been marked by arrests of political opponents and activists, allegations she denies.

Hasina, at an event in Dhaka, said Bangladesh had appealed to the United Nations and various international bodies for help.

Bangladesh shut down the internet after the earlier unrest and imposed a nationwide curfew as the protests, which began in educational institutions in June, became more widespread.

JAMAAT BAN

Hasina’s government said it was set to ban the main Islamic party, Jamaat-e-Islami, and its student wing, both of which Dhaka blames for violence during the protests.

Dhaka has set up a judicial inquiry to investigate the violence, Law Minister Anisul Huq told Reuters.
In a statement, Jamaat condemned the proposed ban as "illegal, extrajudicial and unconstitutional."

The party’s chief Shafiqur Rahman, along with the opposition, have denied they had stoked the violence.

Jamaat was effectively barred from elections after a court said in 2013 its registration as a political party conflicted with Bangladesh’s secular constitution.

The United Nations, global rights groups, the United States and Britain criticised Dhaka’s use of force against the demonstrators, asking it to uphold the right to peaceful protest.
Fresh violence in Bangladesh student protests (BBC)
BBC [7/31/2024 12:17 PM, Lipika Pelham, 65502K, Negative]
Fresh violence has broken out in Bangladesh between police and student protesters demanding justice for victims of recent unrest.

An official in the north-eastern city of Sylhet said demonstrators had attacked police, forcing them to resort to tear gas on Wednesday. Clashes were also reported in the capital Dhaka and other cities.

More than 200 people have been killed in this month’s violence, mostly as a result of police opening fire. Nearly 10,000 people have reportedly been detained.

Photos sent from the southern city of Barisal to BBC Bangla show police in riot gear and wielding batons, barricading demonstrations and taking away protesters, many of whom are women.

Wednesday’s "March for Justice" was called by the Students Against Discrimination movement.

They said they were demonstrating against "mass killings, arrests, attacks, and disappearances of students and people".

Students have been protesting against attempts to reinstate quotas in civil service jobs for relatives of veterans from the country’s war for independence from Pakistan in 1971 for more than three weeks.

A third of public sector jobs had been set aside for them, but on 21 July the Supreme Court court ruled just 5% of the roles could be reserved.

The student movement believes the system is discriminatory and has demanded recruitment based on merit.

Organisers have demanded an apology from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and for six ministers to resign over deadly clashes at the resulting protests.

The government blames the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami party for the unrest.

The European Union has postponed talks with Bangladesh on a new co-operation agreement after criticism of the government’s crackdown.

On Tuesday, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned what he called the use of excessive force against protesters and asked for those responsible to be brought to justice.

The now postponed co-operation deal had been intended to boost economic links between Bangladesh and the EU, the country’s main trading partner.
Police clash footage shocks Bangladesh as internet returns (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [8/1/2024 4:19 AM, Staff, 1.4M, Negative]
When millions of Bangladeshis came back online this week after a nationwide internet shutdown, many were shocked to watch a ferocious police clampdown they had earlier only heard while bunkered in their homes.

At least 206 people were killed last month during some of the worst unrest of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, sparked by student demonstrations against civil service hiring rules.

Bystanders and several police officers were among the dead but most were protesters killed by police fire, hospitals told AFP, with rights groups and the European Union condemning what they said was an excessive use of force.

Footage of clashes between security forces and crowds was largely absent from news broadcasts and few had a grasp of their extent until the national mobile internet network was switched back on after an 11-day shutdown.

Though the unrest has since calmed, several graphic amateur videos published to social media that show police firing on protesters have inflamed public anger against Hasina’s government.

"How come the police are killing our brothers and sisters like this?" one user wrote, in response to a short clip of a police officer firing at a wounded young man while another tried to drag him safely from the scene.

‘I cried countless times’

AFP was able to pinpoint the footage to Jatrabari, a bustling neighbourhood in the capital Dhaka, and from there identify three eyewitnesses who corroborated the video.

All spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing retribution if they identified themselves.

The incident occurred on July 20, hours after Hasina’s government announced a nationwide curfew and deployed troops to restore order at the height of the unrest.

One witness said the wounded man in the video, 18-year-old Imam Hossain Taim, had been accosted by police but denied participating in protests before he was shot.

"He fell on the ground and was trying to crawl away. Two other men fled the scene but one guy came back to take his friend away," the witness added.

Taim was brought to Dhaka Medical College Hospital but died of his injuries later that day, his father Moynal Hossain told AFP.

"He was not even a protester," Taim’s elder brother Tuhin told AFP. "He was roaming around with friends during a break in the curfew."

The footage of the attack on Taim was viewed more than half a million times after it was posted to Facebook, and the 60-second clip was widely shared on WhatsApp and other messaging platforms.

AFP also verified another video taken a day earlier in the nearby neighbourhood of Rampura that showed police firing at a man at point-blank range as he clung to an under-construction building. The man had fled into the site, according to eyewitnesses. The clip has been viewed more than two million times on Facebook.

"I cried countless times watching this. I am crying now," one user wrote in response. "This would not happen in a free country."

‘Forced to open fire’

Rights groups have accused Hasina’s government of sidelining opposition parties and ruthlessly stamping out dissent during its 15-year tenure.

Bangladesh ranks 165 out of 180 countries on Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom index, below Russia and just above Saudi Arabia.

Many in Dhaka could hear gunfire and explosions from around the megacity of 20 million people from inside their homes during last month’s unrest.

But television coverage was heavily censored and showed little of the police response to the disorder, instead focusing on arson attacks and vandalism by protesters.

Amnesty International said its review of photographic, video and eyewitness testimony found the "unlawful" use of force by police against protesters on several occasions.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also condemned the police response to the disorder and called for perpetrators to be brought to justice.

"There must be full accountability for the numerous instances of use of excessive and lethal force by the law enforcement authorities against protesters and others," he said in a statement.

Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan last weekend denied that the police response to the unrest was excessive, saying security forces had shown "extreme levels of patience" and only fired when necessary to stop attacks on government buildings.

"When they saw that the properties could not be protected, then police were forced to open fire," he said.
Bangladesh Police Release Student Leaders After Unrest (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [8/1/2024 4:19 AM, Shafiqul Alam, 1.4M, Positive]
Bangladesh police on Thursday freed six student leaders whose campaign against civil service job quotas sparked deadly nationwide unrest, as the government looked to calm tensions and forestall fresh demonstrations.

Students Against Discrimination staged nationwide rallies last month that ended in a police crackdown and the deaths of at least 206 people, according to an AFP count of police and hospital data.

The group’s leadership were among thousands picked up in the police dragnet that followed some of the worst unrest of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year tenure.

"All six quota movement coordinators have been returned to their families this afternoon," deputy commissioner Junaed Alam Sarkar said.

Principal leader Nahid Islam and two others had been forcibly discharged from a hospital in the capital Dhaka last Friday by plainclothes detectives and taken to an unknown location.

His father Badrul Islam confirmed to AFP that Nahid had returned home early Thursday afternoon but did not give any more details.

Three others were detained in the following days with the government saying at the time they had been held for their own safety.

Justice minister Anisul Huq told AFP on Thursday that all six had volunteered to be in police custody.

"They came willingly. They said they wanted to go. They are allowed to return to their parents," he added.

Hasina’s government restored order after deploying troops, imposing a curfew and shutting down the mobile internet network across the country of 170 million for 11 days.

More than 10,000 people were arrested in the wake of the unrest, according to local media.

Small and scattered protests resumed in cities around Bangladesh this week after other members of Students Against Discrimination ended a moratorium on demonstrations.

They vowed to restart their campaign after the government ignored a Monday deadline for their leaders to be freed.

"Their detention was arbitrary and unlawful. There was growing national and international criticism," University of Oslo researcher Mubashar Hasan told AFP.

He added that the release of the leaders signalled the government was looking to "de-escalate tensions" with the protest movement.

Demonstrations broke out last month over the reintroduction of a quota scheme that reserved more than half of all government jobs for certain groups.

With around 18 million young Bangladeshis out of work, according to government figures, the move deeply upset graduates facing an acute employment crisis.

Critics say the quota is used to stack public jobs with loyalists to the ruling Awami League.

The Supreme Court cut the number of reserved jobs last week but fell short of protesters’ demands to scrap the most contentious quota category entirely.

Hasina has ruled Bangladesh since 2009 and won her fourth consecutive election in January after a vote without genuine opposition.

Her government is accused by rights groups of misusing state institutions to entrench its hold on power and stamp out dissent, including the extrajudicial killing of opposition activists.
EU delays talks with Bangladesh on new pact after criticism of Dhaka’s response to protests (Reuters)
Reuters [7/31/2024 7:59 AM, Shivam Patel and Ruma Paul, 42991K, Negative]
The European Union said on Wednesday it postponed negotiations with Bangladesh on a new cooperation agreement after criticism of Dhaka’s response to contain deadly protests that killed at least 150 people this month.

The cooperation pact seeks to enhance trade, economic and developmental relations between Bangladesh and the EU, which is the main trading partner for the South Asian country, accounting for 20.7% of Bangladesh’s trade in 2023.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell last week criticised a reported "shoot on sight policy" in Bangladesh, killings "perpetrated by the authorities" as well as killings of law enforcement officers, mass arrests and damage to property.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government has denied any live rounds were fired, but hospital sources said the injured as well as dead bore wounds from bullets and shot gun pellets.

"In light of the prevailing situation, the first round of negotiations on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement envisaged for September has been postponed with no later date fixed as yet," Nabila Massrali, the EU’s foreign affairs spokesperson, said in an email to Reuters.

Bangladesh, however, said the talks had been delayed to November as they clashed with the United Nations General Assembly session that begins on Sept. 10. The EU did not immediately comment on Bangladesh’s response.

"This delay was due to the UN General Assembly and was decided well before the recent violence," said Uttam Kumar Karmaker, an additional secretary at the Economic Relations Division of Bangladesh’s finance ministry.

A delay in talks could affect EU support for Bangladesh at a time when it is grappling with economic struggles, soaring inflation, high youth unemployment, and dipping foreign exchange reserves.

The high cost of living sparked deadly demonstrations ahead of January’s national elections, in which Hasina won a fourth straight term in a vote boycotted by the main opposition party.

The recent protests led by students were against controversial quotas in government jobs and quickly spiralled into violence, killing 150 people, injuring thousands and shutting the country for days as curfew was imposed, the army called out and telecoms disrupted.

The restrictions were eased last week as students stopped the protests after the Supreme Court scrapped most of the quotas.

Hasina and opposition parties have both blamed each other for the violence, with the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) accusing Hasina of becoming increasingly authoritative in recent years.
Bangladesh’s Shaky Political Future (Wall Street Journal – opinion)
Wall Street Journal [7/31/2024 6:29 PM, Sadanand Dhume, 810K, Neutral]
When Bangladesh makes international news, it’s usually for tragedies: devastating cyclones, massive industrial accidents, grisly terrorist attacks. Even by those dismal benchmarks, the latest story from Bangladesh stands out—the deaths this month of more than 200 people during a government crackdown on student protests.

The violence may signal the beginning of the end for 76-year-old Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, under whose increasingly autocratic rule the country has turned into a de facto one-party state. But those expecting liberal democracy to flower in a post-Hasina Bangladesh will almost certainly be disappointed. A return to instability, economic stagnation and widespread Islamist violence against religious minorities appears more likely.

Bangladesh’s nearly 175 million people make it the world’s fourth most populous Muslim-majority nation, behind Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria. Shortly after Bangladesh gained independence, Henry Kissinger famously called it a “bottomless basket case.” But under Ms. Hasina, who has ruled since 2009 in her second stint as prime minister, the country has fashioned a more hopeful story as a fast-growing economy.

Bangladesh’s economic growth has averaged 6.5% over the past decade. The poverty rate—defined as the share of the population living on less than $2.15 a day—fell from 11.8% in 2010 to 5% in 2022, according to the World Bank. The United Nations estimates that Bangladesh will graduate from the list of “least developed countries” in two years. The country is ahead of India on life expectancy and female literacy. Along the way, Bangladesh has built a $47 billion garment-export industry that employs some four million people, most of whom are women.

One way to think of Bangladesh under Ms. Hasina is as the opposite of Pakistan. In 1947 the departing British carved the eastern and western wings of Pakistan out of the Muslim-majority regions of undivided India. Until 1971, Pakistan consisted of two distant and noncontiguous parts: East Pakistan (today’s Bangladesh) and West Pakistan (today’s Pakistan). For the first three decades after independence in 1971, Bangladesh followed a trajectory similar to Pakistan’s, marked by high-profile political assassinations, sectarian violence and military coups. Both countries housed Islamist terrorist groups hostile to India.

On Ms. Hasina’s watch, Bangladesh changed course. The prime minister cracked down on terrorism, nudged the army out of active politics and strengthened ties with India, by far the region’s largest economy. By building modern infrastructure and a world-class garment industry, Ms. Hasina laid the groundwork for a more prosperous future—in line with Thailand and Vietnam.

Ms. Hasina’s record on radical Islam has been mixed. She has made dangerous compromises, among them allowing the Islamic fundamentalist group Hefazat-e-Islam to purge school textbooks of content it deemed un-Islamic. Nonetheless, the ruling Awami League party has generally held to its nonsectarian ideology. “In a region marked by intense religious majoritarianism, Sheikh Hasina has done a relatively good job maintaining public rhetoric around pluralism,” Geoffrey Macdonald, an expert on Bangladesh at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said in a phone interview.

Despite these achievements, Ms. Hasina’s grip on power has never looked shakier. In January she won a fourth consecutive term as prime minister in an election marred by an opposition boycott and voter turnout of only about 40%. Corruption allegations have swirled around her government. A former low-level employee in Ms. Hasina’s household reportedly amassed a $34 million fortune. According to media reports, a former Bangladeshi land minister built a real-estate empire of more than 350 properties in the U.K., valued at £200 million.

In recent years, economic growth—long the cornerstone of Ms. Hasina’s political legitimacy—has slowed. The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine jolted Bangladesh’s economy. Fuel and food prices soared while foreign-exchange reserves dwindled, forcing the government to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a $4.7 billion bailout. The World Bank estimates that more than 1 in 7 young Bangladeshis is jobless. The protests that led to this month’s bloody crackdown were sparked by a court ruling—since reversed by the Supreme Court—reinstating a quota that reserved 30% of sought-after civil service jobs for families of those who fought for independence from Pakistan. Each year some 300,000 graduates compete for roughly 4,000 government jobs.

Mr. Macdonald of the U.S. Institute of Peace reckons that Indian politics under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also contributed to Ms. Hasina’s domestic troubles: “India’s Hindu nationalist turn has definitely made Hasina’s life more difficult.”

All this means that Ms. Hasina will find it difficult to recover from the most recent bout of violence. In private, even Awami League supporters acknowledge that the government’s credibility is at an all-time low.

What comes next? Unfortunately for Bangladesh, those waiting in the wings to replace Ms. Hasina include hardened Islamists who will no doubt seek revenge should they gain power. “Even after this mega-mishap, it’s hard to imagine who comes next,” Kazi Anis Ahmed, a Bangladeshi author and businessman, said in a phone interview from Dhaka. “Sheikh Hasina is still better than the alternatives.”
Bangladeshi Protesters in Maldives Face Arrest, Deportation (Human Rights Watch)
Human Rights Watch [7/31/2024 10:34 AM, Robbie Newton, 2.1M, Negative]
Maldivian authorities say they plan to arrest and deport Bangladeshi nationals involved in organizing a peaceful protest in the southern atoll of G.Dh. Thinadhoo.

The July 25 protest was held, like many others across the region, after a recent crackdown by security forces on student protests in Bangladesh, with more than 200 people killed and thousands injured in the clashes that followed.

Minister of Homeland Security and Technology Ali Ihusaan accused the protesters of breaching a visa condition prohibiting migrants from engaging in any “political activities.” This condition violates the right to peaceful assembly under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which the Maldives is a party. The Human Rights Committee, the international expert body that provides authoritative interpretations of the covenant, has stated: “Everyone has the right of peaceful assembly: citizens and non-citizens alike,” including foreign nationals, documented and undocumented migrants, and asylum seekers.

Rights groups have called on the Maldives’ government to revoke the decision to arrest and deport Bangladeshi nationals involved in the protest and “uphold constitutional and international human rights conventions.”

The Maldives has the highest proportion of foreign migrant laborers in South Asia, primarily from Bangladesh and India, including tens of thousands of undocumented migrants. Migrant workers in the Maldives face a range of entrenched abuses from employers, including deceptive recruitment practices, wage theft, passport confiscation, unsafe living and working conditions, and excessive work demands, which may amount to forced labor and violate domestic and international law.

In mid-July, Maldivian immigration authorities announced that more than 2,000 immigrants had been deported from the country since November 2023 under President Mohamed Muizzu. This crackdown included numerous raids on private homes and workplaces.

The Maldivian government should uphold the fundamental rights of migrants. Reversing its decision to arrest and deport Bangladeshi nationals for peacefully protesting would be a good place to start. The next step would be ratifying the International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families. The Maldives depends on them.
Central Asia
Japan builds ties in Russia’s backyard with Central Asia summit (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [7/31/2024 12:03 PM, Kana Baba, 2042K, Positive]
Japan and five Central Asian countries are expected to issue a joint statement regarding cooperation on sustainable economic development at a summit next week, covering areas including cutting carbon emissions and developing talent.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits the region Aug. 9-11 to meet with leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The former Soviet republics, largely surrounded by China, Russia and Iran, are rich in energy and mineral resources, which has spurred a race for influence in the region.

At the summit in Kazakhstan, Kishida will signal Japan’s support for regional efforts to achieve carbon neutrality, offering technology from Japanese companies such as fossil-fuel power plants with low carbon emissions.

Tokyo will consider helping the countries manufacture value-added exports, such as hydrogen and fertilizer produced with natural gas.

The agenda will cover a planned Caspian Sea shipping route linking Central Asia and Europe without passing through Russia, which Central Asian nations have been eyeing since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Japan will look to provide intangible assistance such as implementing digital technology in customs procedures.

Tokyo also will encourage the countries to make use of Japan’s specified skilled worker program to train talent and promote person-to-person exchanges.

Central Asia sends many workers to Russia, with 1.2 million people from Tajikistan and 1 million from Kyrgyzstan emigrating there. Remittances from Russia account for roughly 20% and 30%, respectively, of the two countries’ gross domestic product. With Moscow under tightening economic sanctions, the region seeks a broader range of destinations for its workers.

The five Central Asian countries are in a geopolitically significant location between eastern Asia and Europe. They maintain deep economic and security ties with Moscow, with three participating in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. China has recently expanded its economic influence there through Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.

The region contains abundant natural resources, including oil and natural gas in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan sent more than half its natural gas exports to China in 2022, and China is building another pipeline to transport the fuel on top of the lines already in place.

Kazakhstan is the world’s top producer of uranium and has substantial reserves of other metals such as rust-resistant chromium. Japan plans to use the summit as an opportunity to discuss establishing a supply network for key minerals.

Major global players are working to forge closer ties with Central Asia. China held its first face-to-face summit with Central Asian leaders in May 2023. The European Union also held a top-level meeting that June, followed by the U.S. and Germany in September.

Japan launched its current dialogue framework with Central Asia in 2004, with nine meetings of foreign ministers held since then. By going a step higher with a summit for the upcoming meeting, Tokyo aims to emphasize values such as the rule of law while it seeks closer economic cooperation.
Kazakhstan: Obscenity trial results in 10-day sentence for comedian (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [7/31/2024 4:14 PM, Almaz Kumenov, 57.6K, Neutral]
There is a lot of liability involved in trying to make people laugh in Kazakhstan these days. Just ask comedian Alexander Merkul: a court in the Kazakh capital Astana recently sent him to jail for using foul language during a show.

The court, in ordering Merkul to spend 10 days in the municipal clink because of his penchant for uttering four-letter words, said his performance in June at an area restaurant "disrespected others and violated public order."

Somewhere, the spirit of Lenny Bruce is getting a kick out of the controversy.

This past March, Kazakhstan’s parliament adopted amendments to the Code of Administrative Offenses, toughening penalties for using obscene language in public. Fines were quadrupled to as much as about $150 and potential jail time for repeat offenders extended to up to a month.

Merkul’s sentencing on July 26 caused a minor uproar on social media, where many called the punishment excessively harsh for something that many people do. "We all swear - among friends and even at work, when we need to let off steam, express indignation - how can you deprive someone of their freedom for this?" Maria Bakalchuk, a designer at the Almaty advertising agency Uptime, told Eurasianet.

Others are convinced the sentence for swearing is meant to intimidate the comedian, whose performances often contain routines that employ satire to mock authorities. “He joked about ‘Zhana Kazakhstan’ [New Kazakhstan is the slogan for the reforms of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev],” wrote Anton Miroedov, founder of the SMM agency Diskurs, on Instagram. “And our officials, in order to show everyone that he is wrong... gave him 10 days.”

Merkul is known as a daring stand-up comedian, willing to push the boundaries of free speech in a country where the government seems intent on tightly controlling the flow of information. He doesn’t shy away from touching on sensitive topics in his act, including social problems.

“Kazakhstan is new, poverty is old. Do you know that there are people who are ready to fight for 50 tenge? (about 10 cents)? ... Do you feel the New Kazakhstan? … I haven’t even recovered from ‘Rukhani Zhangyru’ [Spiritual renewal - reforms of the previous ruling regime] yet...", Merkul riffed on stage during a recent show, causing laughter in the audience.

In a podcast interview in May, Merkul was outspoken in arguing that humor and satire are essential elements of politics. “Who else but stand-up comedians should raise topical social and political issues in a humorous manner?” Merkul asked.

He is not the only one who has paid a price for having a quick wit and a sharp tongue. In May, a court in the commercial capital Almaty locked up another stand-up comedian, Nuraskhan Baskozhaev, for 15 days, also for swearing during a performance. The Almaty court termed it “petty hooliganism.” Apparently, Baskozhaev’s tendency to ridicule official corruption is what earned him an extended stay behind bars, Radio Azattyk, the Kazakh service of RFE/RL, reported.

The Central Stand Up Almaty club, where Baskozhaev was a regular performer, issued a statement expressing concern about the “violation of the rights of young artists.” The statement noted that the case against Baskozhaev stemmed from a “a closed event in a club,” at which people wishing to purchase tickets were warned in advance about the use of foul language.

Comedians aren’t the only ones running afoul of obscenity statutes. In July, Maria Kochneva, an Almaty activist, received a 10-day jail sentence for cursing while singing a hip-hop tune, titled "Yo, orystar" (Yo, Russians). She cursed Russians to protest the war in Ukraine.

The head of the Almaty comedy club Please Stand Up, Ruslan Kuanov, said in an interview with Eurasianet that stand-up comedians in Kazakhstan often try to emulate the style and content of American counterparts. However, when engaging in political satire, Kuanov noted, local comics should remember that Kazakhstan’s political culture is far different than that in the United States. He expressed hope that stand-up will not lose its bite. “Our stand-up comedians should not be afraid, they need to learn to joke about topical issues subtly and wittily, so that it is funny and at the same time they do not have to answer according to the law,” Kuanov told Eurasianet.
Twitter
Afghanistan
Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 9:26 AM, 62.9K followers, 107 retweets, 154 likes]
"The international response to this crisis has been—let me not mince words here—shockingly bad." Read @hrw’s testimony to @TLHumanRights on the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/07/30/human-rights-watch-testimony-women-and-girls-afghanistan

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:04 AM, 62.9K followers, 24 retweets, 73 likes]
On July 30, I had the honor of testifying alongside the amazing @AmiriWahida & @Metra_Mehran at a @TLHumanRights hearing in the US Congress on the situation of Afghan women/girls under the Taliban. The commission also heard from @SE_AfghanWGH Watch here: https://humanrightscommission.house.gov/events/hearings/women-and-girls-afghanistan

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:06 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
I am very grateful to @RepMcGovern for holding the hearing and to his staff who worked hard and kindly to arrange it. Also grateful to @RepJasonCrow who showed up even though the house was not in session. @IlhanMN will submit a statement too, which is great.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:08 AM, 62.9K followers, 3 retweets, 4 likes]
This is an important moment, as Americans go into election season, to set the tone for the next US government and ensure that whoever is in the White House remembers the many promises the US made to Afghan women and girls over the 20 years of the war.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:10 AM, 62.9K followers, 2 retweets, 4 likes]
August 15 will mark three years since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. During these years they have systematically stripped women and girls of their rights and created the world’s most serious women’s rights crisis. This has major implications for women’s rights globally.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:12 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
In the testimony I provided for @hrw, we made ten recommendations to the US Congress. They are: 1) Adopt legislation so that the US Office of the Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights is a permanent, fully funded office;

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:12 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
2) Call on the UN and all other stakeholders to comply with UN Security Council resolution 1325 on women, peace and security to ensure that Afghan women are full participants in all discussions about the future of their country;

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:12 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
3) Call for the Doha 4 meeting, should it take place, to have a strong human rights focus on the agenda and include Afghan women as full participants;

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:14 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
4) Authorize robust support for Afghan human rights defenders inside and outside of the country, and for women and girls’ virtual education programs, external continuous learning opportunities, and other programs that can invest in women and girls’ development and future in...

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:14 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
...innovative, safe and secure ways. Work with other donors to scale-up current successful programs to reach the over one million girls blocked from secondary education.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:15 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
5) Help restore public services including health care, water management, and agriculture in areas where women and girls are disproportionately affected.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:15 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
6) The detailed Priority 2 (P-2) visa category for Afghans persecuted because of their US-affiliation was appropriate for the first several years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, but after three years of Taliban rule the P-2 category should be expanded to include...

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:16 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 3 likes]
...women-headed households, including women survivors of domestic abuse; defenders of women’s civil and human rights; female police officers; and women or girls who qualify for education or need medical care but have been denied it because of their gender.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:17 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
7) Express support for the International Criminal Court’s investigation in Afghanistan.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:18 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 2 likes]
8) Endorse and support calls for the creation of a new UN investigative mechanism with a mandate to collect and preserve evidence of and advance accountability for past and ongoing crimes in Afghanistan including at the UN Human Rights Council’s 57th session in September-October.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:19 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
9) Urge other states, that have ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women, to bring a case at the International Court of Justice regarding Taliban violations of the convention.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[7/31/2024 5:19 AM, 62.9K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
10) Publicly support the recommendations of the UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Afghanistan, including by considering codifying gender apartheid as a crime against humanity.

Freshta Razbaan
@RazbaanFreshta
[7/31/2024 11:48 AM, 4.8K followers, 3 likes]
The Taliban’s proclaimed amnesty was a blatant lie. The brutal killing of a former military officer, who was tortured to death by the Taliban, is a clear testament to this fact. The victim’s family, along with many other families of Taliban violence, is seeking justice and the trial of those who committed this horrific act. This tragic event underscores that the Taliban’s promises of an inclusive government and respect for human rights have been nothing but a facade. The ongoing violence and persecution of opponents and minorities expose the true nature of their regime.

Freshta Razbaan
@RazbaanFreshta
[7/31/2024 11:19 AM, 4.8K followers, 2 retweets, 7 likes]
The situation for Afghan women and girls under the Taliban regime has deteriorated significantly, marked by severe restrictions on their rights and freedoms. Since the Taliban’s return to power, they have systematically rolled back many of the gains made in women’s rights over the past two decades. Women and girls are facing extreme limitations on their access to education, employment, and healthcare, with many schools for girls being closed and women being barred from most forms of work outside the home. The Taliban’s enforcement of strict dress codes and the segregation of genders in public spaces further marginalize women from participating in public life. Reports indicate that women have been subjected to harassment, violence, and arbitrary detention for violating these stringent rules. The psychological toll of living under such oppressive conditions is immense, contributing to a pervasive sense of fear and hopelessness.

Internationally, while there have been condemnations and expressions of concern, concrete actions have been insufficient. Humanitarian aid has often been delayed, and diplomatic efforts to pressure the Taliban into respecting women’s rights have yielded little progress. The international community’s piecemeal approach—characterized by sporadic interventions and lack of a unified strategy—has failed to provide the necessary support and protection for Afghan women and girls. This neglect not only highlights the inadequacies of current global mechanisms for addressing human rights abuses but also raises serious ethical and moral questions. The international community’s lackluster response not only fails to alleviate the immediate suffering of Afghan women and girls but also sets a dangerous precedent, signaling that the rights of women and girls can be disregarded without significant consequence. #Afghanistan #Women #Girls #HumanRights

Habib Khan
@HabibKhanT
[7/31/2024 11:57 PM, 228.9K followers, 9 retweets, 31 likes]
Supporting both the Taliban & Hamas makes sense, but being anti-Taliban and pro-Hamas is just delusional. After Afghanistan’s collapse, Haniya quickly congratulated the Taliban, hailing their murderous leaders as "brave" & their oppression of women and minorities as "liberation."
Pakistan
Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[7/31/2024 1:38 PM, 42.8K followers, 34 retweets, 89 likes]
Pakistan’s parliament passes a bill to circumvent the Supreme Court’s ruling on PTI’s reserved seats. Here is a case of parliament aiming to subvert election results and the democratic process.

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[7/31/2024 1:46 PM, 42.8K followers, 2 likes]
My piece on recent developments in Pakistan and their significance: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/in-its-battle-against-pti-pakistans-new-government-exposes-its-own-weakness/

Madiha Afzal
@MadihaAfzal
[7/31/2024 11:37 AM, 42.8K followers, 26 retweets, 107 likes]
For the Pakistani media, coverage of Baluchistan has long been a red line they can’t cross.

Habib Khan
@HabibKhanT
[7/31/2024 11:32 AM, 228.9K followers, 86 retweets, 246 likes]
In Karachi, Pakistani police are detaining Baloch protesters showing solidarity with the #BalochNationalGathering. Meanwhile, unrest rages on in Balochistan for days, where Pakistani forces have repeatedly opened fire on protesters, wounding scores.
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[7/31/2024 2:16 PM, 100.6M followers, 3.2K retweets, 27K likes]
Shri Anshuman Gaekwad Ji will be remembered for his contribution to cricket. He was a gifted player and an outstanding coach. Pained by his demise. Condolences to his family and admirers. Om Shanti.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[7/31/2024 9:58 AM, 100.6M followers, 3.1K retweets, 21K likes]
Glad to have met you, Parimal Bhai and received a copy of your work on Gir. I’ve always known you as someone passionate about wildlife and this work will surely help all those interested in the majestic Gir Lion. @mpparimal

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[7/31/2024 10:51 AM, 211.2K followers, 30 retweets, 352 likes]
The absolute last thing India would want to do is be involved in anything that adds to the destabilization of the Middle East. Not to mention, it values its relations with Iran.
NSB
Awami League
@albd1971
[7/31/2024 1:55 PM, 640.9K followers, 42 retweets, 78 likes]
Sound systems of 100 #mosques in #Dhaka were used by activists of #BNP-#Jamaat to instigate people against the #police and organise attacks. CCTV footage from three mosques shows how the attack on Mirpur-10 #metrorail station was orchestrated. #Bangladesh #QuotaMovement

Awami League
@albd1971
[7/31/2024 11:17 PM, 640.9K followers, 45 retweets, 91 likes]
Watch the #Bangladesh State Minister for Information @MAarafat71 MP explain what the @albd1971 Govt is doing regarding calls for #justice for the deaths and destruction that took place in #Dhaka and elsewhere in the country during the #violence surrounding the #QuotaMovement.

Awami League
@albd1971
[7/31/2024 9:57 AM, 640.9K followers, 45 retweets, 113 likes]
Prime Minister #SheikhHasina called for cooperation from the @UN and other international organisations to conduct a thorough investigation into the nationwide violence that erupted during the #QuotaMovement. https://link.albd.org/w3grg #Bangladesh #QuotaProtest

Michael Kugelman
@MichaelKugelman
[7/31/2024 11:07 AM, 211.2K followers, 7 retweets, 29 likes]
I’m interviewed here by @ramisarob1 @dailystarnews about the international response to Bangladesh’s crisis, and the crisis’s possible impacts on its foreign policy and relations with key partners including the US, India, and China. https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/what-are-the-global-stakes-bangladeshs-current-crisis-3665531

Tshering Tobgay
@tsheringtobgay
[7/31/2024 7:13 AM, 99.5K followers, 3 retweets, 26 likes]
Bhutan is a custodian of pristine biodiversity, a reputation we owe to the enlightened leadership of our successive monarchs;

Tshering Tobgay
@tsheringtobgay
[7/31/2024 7:13 AM, 99.5K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
And so on World Ranger Day today, I extend my deepest gratitude and appreciation to all our rangers for their hardwork, sacrifices, and commitment to protecting our ecosystems and wildlife.

Tshering Tobgay
@tsheringtobgay
[7/31/2024 7:13 AM, 99.5K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
Thank you, rangers — your dedicated service ensures that our beloved nation remains a natural haven today and for future generations.

Tshering Tobgay
@tsheringtobgay
[7/31/2024 5:43 AM, 99.5K followers, 2 retweets, 20 likes]
Met with representatives from Bhutan Construction and Transport Authority, to discuss their efforts in addressing the increasing traffic congestion in Thimphu.

Tshering Tobgay
@tsheringtobgay
[7/31/2024 5:43 AM, 99.5K followers, 4 likes]
We decided that they will submit to the government, practical strategies that prioritize road safety and efficiency... medical casualties and inconveniences due to protracted travel times on our roads are preventable and should be prevented.

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[7/31/2024 4:42 AM, 258.9K followers, 8 retweets, 51 likes]
UNDP Res Rep for Nepal Ms. Ayshanie Medagangoda-Labé paid a farewell call on Foreign Secretary Ms. Sewa Lamsal today. On the occasion, Nepal- UNDP cooperation and collaboration were emphasized. @sewa_lamsal

MOFA of Nepal
@MofaNepal
[7/31/2024 4:42 AM, 258.9K followers, 3 likes]
The Foreign Secretary also appreciated the contribution of the Res Rep in assisting Nepal to make progress towards SDGs and prosperity of Nepali people.
Central Asia
MFA Tajikistan
@MOFA_Tajikistan
[7/31/2024 3:30 AM, 4.9K followers, 4 retweets, 6 likes]
Participation in the inauguration ceremony of the newly elected President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian https://mfa.tj/en/main/view/15458/participation-in-the-inauguration-ceremony-of-the-newlyelected-president-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-masoud-pezeshkian

{End of Report}
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