epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Friday, April 19, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
250,000 Afghan children need education, food and homes after returning from Pakistan, says NGO (AP)
AP [4/18/2024 12:33 PM, Staff, 22K, Neutral]
A quarter of a million Afghan children need education, food and homes after being forcibly returned from Pakistan, a nongovernmental organization said Thursday.

Pakistan is cracking down on foreigners it alleges are in the country illegally, including 1.7 million Afghans. It insists the campaign is not directed against Afghans specifically, but they make up most of the foreigners in the country.

More than 520,000 Afghans have left Pakistan since last October.

Save the Children said families are entering Afghanistan with “virtually nothing” and that nearly half of all returnees are children.

A survey of families by the NGO said nearly all of them lacked enough food for the next one to two months. Some returnees and host families had to borrow money for food or rely on friends and relatives for food.

Almost two thirds of children who have returned to Afghanistan have not been enrolled in school, according to Save the Children. The majority told the organization they don’t have the necessary documents to register and enroll in school. In Pakistan, more than two-thirds of these children had been attending school, it said.

An additional obstacle facing child returnees is the ban on girls attending school beyond sixth grade in Afghanistan.

Arshad Malik, Save the Children country director for Afghanistan, said the return of so many people was creating an additional strain on already overstretched resources.

“Many undocumented Afghan children were born in Pakistan,” he said. “Afghanistan is not the place they call home. In addition to the returns from Pakistan, 600,000 Afghans arrived from Iran last year.”

A spokesman for the Refugee Ministry, Abdul Mutalib Haqqani, said education was available for any child who was missing out on classes.

“They can register in any class and continue to learn, whether they have documents or not,” said Haqqani. “This problem has been solved by us.”

Pakistan’s decision to deport Afghans who entered illegally struck hard. Many Afghans have lived for decades in Pakistan, driven there by successive wars at home.

When the order was announced, hundreds of thousands feared arrest and fled back to Afghanistan.
Afghan children returning from Pakistan face grim reality, survey finds (VOA)
VOA [4/18/2024 9:56 AM, Ayaz Gul, 761K, Negative]
A survey released Thursday revealed that over the past seven months, nearly 250,000 children have returned to Afghanistan from neighboring Pakistan with almost nothing, and they urgently need food, shelter and access to education.

The study by Save the Children said that more than 520,000 Afghans have returned home since September 2023 after Pakistan asked all undocumented foreigners to leave the country or face deportation. Nearly half of all the returnees are children.

Despite attending school in Pakistan, 65% of the children now back in Afghanistan are not enrolled in school. The majority, 85%, told the surveyors they did not have the necessary documents to register and enroll in school.

The survey did not say how many girls were among the children questioned as they also have to deal with the Taliban government’s ban on teenage girls’ education beyond the sixth grade.

‘Crisis levels of hunger’

The study found that 99% of the families that returned and the communities hosting them in Afghanistan do not have sufficient food to last one to two months.

“About three-quarters of returnees and families in host communities reduced portion sizes or restricted the food consumption of adults so small children could eat on at least two days in the previous week,” said Save the Children in its study.

According to the findings of the survey, almost 40% of returnees and host families had to borrow food or depend on relatives and friends at least three days a week. Out of the number of respondents in total, 13% of returnees and 9% of host families had to rely on others for food every day.

It highlighted the dire conditions facing returnees in Afghanistan, where almost 8 million children “are facing crisis levels of hunger” due to years of conflict and multiple recent natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and ongoing drought.

‘Already overstretched resources’

The United Nations estimates that close to 16 million Afghans in the country face severe food insecurity at crisis and emergency levels.

“Families are returning to Afghanistan with virtually nothing,” said Arshad Malik, country director for Save the Children. “The return of so many people is creating an additional strain on already overstretched resources,” he said.

Malik said that the crisis-hit country is struggling to cope with the pressure of displacement. In addition to the returns from Pakistan, he added nearly 600,000 Afghans arrived from neighboring Iran last year. “Afghanistan is also now home to the second largest number of internally displaced people in the world – or roughly 1 in 7 people.”

He noted that many undocumented Afghan children were born in Pakistan, and Afghanistan is not the place they call home.

No basic necessities

A 15-year-old girl living with her grandfather after returning with her mother and three siblings told the surveyors that the family sold everything before leaving Pakistan. Her name was not mentioned to protect her identity.

“We need shelter, living essentials, winter clothing, shoes, blankets, food and medicine. Afghanistan is very cold for us, and it is challenging because we do not have winter clothing,” said the girl.

The survey showed that nearly one in six families lives in tents and most returnees have little or no means of supporting themselves, with nearly half of them saying there were no jobs available in Afghanistan.

Economic and humanitarian conditions have deteriorated in the country since the fundamentalist Taliban returned to power nearly three years ago. They have imposed sweeping restrictions on women’s access to education, employment, and public life.

The curbs on women’s rights and other controversial policies have deterred the international community from formally recognizing the Taliban government and resuming much-needed development assistance to Afghanistan. Humanitarian aid is still being provided to the country through the U.N. and other foreign non-governmental organizations.
Afghans with disability urge Taliban to end ban on aid agency (VOA)
VOA [4/18/2024 3:36 PM, Akmal Dawi, 761K, Negative]
For years, Qari Wazir Mohammad and his six siblings received assistance from the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan, or SCA, enabling all seven of them to read Braille and perform daily tasks such as cooking and cleaning.

All born blind in a remote village of war-torn Ghazni province, the four brothers and three sisters faced extreme poverty and a lack of support for their disabilities.

Last year, the Taliban directed the SCA to halt humanitarian activities, including support programs for the disabled.

Taliban officials issued the order in protest of an Iraqi Christian refugee who burned a copy of the Quran in Sweden. That refugee, Salwan Momika, has since reportedly left Sweden, but the ban remains in place, depriving tens of thousands of disabled Afghans of the SCA’s critical assistance services.

“We have clarified our status as an independent NGO and our condemnation of the events in Sweden that led to our suspension,” Andreas Stefansson, secretary general of the SCA, told VOA in written comments.

The SCA

With a $40 million budget for 2023, the SCA, which remained active throughout several cycles of armed conflict in Afghanistan over the past four decades, had 7,000 local and 15 international staff servicing vulnerable communities nationwide.

“Many of our staff are the sole breadwinners of large extended families,” said Stefansson, adding that one-third of SCA employees were female.

Despite being forced to suspend its operations for nearly a year, the organization has continued paying salaries of many of its local employees.

Taliban restrictions

Since seizing power in 2021, the Taliban have relentlessly restricted the work of local and international aid agencies in Afghanistan.

Last year, the Taliban’s ban on Afghan women working for aid agencies led several international NGOs to temporarily suspend operations in protest.

Other restrictions have also been reported.

Humanitarian organizations in Afghanistan reported 1,775 incidents of bureaucratic and administrative impediments and restrictions imposed on their work in 2023, according to the United Nations.

The restrictions come amid an environment of prevalent need.

“An estimated 23.7 million people — more than half of the population — will require humanitarian assistance in 2024,” the U.N. secretary-general said in a report last month.

The situation in Afghanistan is expected to deteriorate further as Pakistan sends hundreds of thousands of refugees home. More than 3 million Afghans are still in Pakistan, facing forced return to a country already grappling with poverty and the aftermath of war.

Isolated under Taliban rule, Afghanistan has suffered significant reductions in donor funding.

Last year, the U.N.-led humanitarian appeal received about half of its needed $3.2 billion. As of April, this year’s appeal has received 7% of its needed funds.

Stefansson says his organization has been in dialogue with Taliban authorities to lift the ban.

Taliban officials have not commented on when or if the SCA’s operations in Afghanistan might resume.

“We implore leaders of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to allow the Swedish committee to resume its activities,” said Qari Wazir Mohmmad of Ghazni. “Without their assistance, our lives are destroyed.”
Taliban Pull Two TV Channels For ‘Violating Islamic Values’ (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [4/18/2024 6:14 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Two Afghan television channels have been taken off the airwaves for "violations against Islamic and national values", a Taliban government spokesman said Thursday.

Rights monitors warn Taliban authorities have been cracking down on media freedoms since their return to power in 2021 as they enforce an austere vision of Islamist rule.

Ministry of Information and Culture spokesman Khubaib Ghufran said the "Barya" and "Noor" TV channels had been suspended on Tuesday for failing to abide by "journalistic principles".

"They had programmes creating confusion among the public and their owners are abroad," he told AFP. "The media violation commission suspended their operations."

He said "their owners have even taken stands as opponents" of the Taliban government and "until their owners come here, and answer the questions posed to them, their operations will be suspended".

The Afghanistan Journalists Center (AFJC) said in a statement Afghanistan’s media commission had repeatedly warned "Barya" for airing remarks by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a once-powerful warlord and former prime minister, about the Taliban government.

"Noor" had received warnings because it broadcast music and the uncovered faces of female presenters, the AFJC said.

The "Barya" channel is owned by Hekmatyar’s son Habiburrahman Hekmatyar.

"Barya had religious and national values in mind, not Taliban values," Habiburrahman Hekmatyar, who lives in exile and whose father has increasingly found himself at odds with Taliban authorities, said on social media platform X.

"The only thing you won’t see from us is silence," he said.

The "Noor" channel is owned by Salahuddin Rabbani, who also lives in exile and served as Afghanistan’s foreign minister under the former US-backed government from 2015 to 2019.

His father, Burhanuddin Rabbani, was president of Afghanistan in the 1990s but fled the country as the Taliban surged to power for the first time and ruled from 1996 to 2001.

Burhanuddin Rabbani was assassinated in 2011 by a bomber, posing as a Taliban peace envoy, with explosives packed in his turban.

The AFJC said the suspension of the two channels "infringes on the country’s mass media laws and is a blatant attempt to suppress freedom of the press".

Curbs introduced by Taliban authorities have effectively banned music, while the Ministry for Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice issued an order in May 2022 for women TV presenters to cover their faces.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said last month Afghanistan’s media landscape is being "suffocated by repressive Taliban directives".

Many journalists fled Afghanistan, fearing repercussions for their reporting as the Taliban’s two-decade insurgency ended with the collapse of the foreign-backed government in August 2021.

Many of those who remained have been detained by Taliban authorities since their return. An RSF tally says two journalists are currently being held in detention in Afghanistan.
Pakistan
Pakistan aims to agree outline of new IMF loan in May - Finance Minister (Reuters)
Reuters [4/19/2024 2:02 AM, Karin Strohecker, 5.2M, Neutral]
Pakistan hopes to agree the contours of a new International Monetary Fund loan in May, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb told Reuters, and has kicked off talks with ratings agencies to lay the groundwork for a return to international debt markets.

The country’s current $3 billion arrangement with the fund runs out in late April and the government is seeking a longer and bigger loan to help bring permanence to macroeconomic stability as well as an umbrella under which the country can execute much needed structural reforms, the minister said.

"We expect the IMF mission to be in Islamabad around the middle of May - and that is when some of these contours will start developing," said Aurangzeb, who met with the Fund’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Wednesday during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings.

He declined to outline what size programme the government hoped to secure, though Pakistan is expected to seek, opens new tab at least $6 billion. Aurangzeb added that once the IMF loan was agreed, Pakistan would also request additional financing from the Fund under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust.

The struggling South Asian nation had managed to accumulate foreign exchange reserves in recent months and was on track for its war chest to hit $10 billion - or roughly two months import cover - by end-June.

The debt situation also looked more benign, Aurangzeb said.

"The bulk of our bilateral debt - including our China debt - is being rolled over, so in that sense I think we are in good shape and I don’t see a big issue during this fiscal year nor next fiscal year, cause we need to repay roughly $25 billion dollars every fiscal year."

Pakistan also hopes to come back to international capital markets, possibly with a green bond. However, there was some more work to be done before that happens, said Aurangzeb.

"We have to come back into a certain ratings environment," he said, having kicked off talks with ratings agencies, adding the government was hoping to get an improvement in its sovereign rating in the next fiscal year.

"In all likelihood, any international capital markets issuance will likely be in the 2025/2026 fiscal year."
Pakistan says Iran’s President Raisi will visit next week despite tensions in the Middle East (AP)
AP [4/18/2024 8:39 AM, Staff, 456K, Neutral]
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Pakistan as scheduled next week despite increasing tension in the Middle East in the wake of Tehran’s aerial attack on Israel, Pakistan’s foreign minister said Thursday.

Ishaq Dar said Raisi will arrive in the capital, Islamabad, on April 22 on an official three-day visit.

Dar provided no further details, but the visit seems to be part of efforts by the two sides to mend ties which had briefly been strained in January, when Tehran and Islamabad carried out tit-for-tat strikes targeting militants accused of attacking each other’s security forces.

But the two sides soon agreed to work together to improve security cooperation.

The visit was announced days after Iran launched unprecedented air strikes on Israel after a suspected Israeli strike in Syria killed two Iranian generals in an Iranian consular building.

Pakistan is among the countries that has no diplomatic relations with Israel because of the lingering issue of Palestinian statehood. Dar said Pakistan wants the issue to be settled according to U.N. resolutions.
5 Japanese workers narrowly escape suicide bombing that targeted their vehicle in Pakistan (AP)
AP [4/19/2024 2:11 AM, Adil Jawad, 456K, Neutral]
A suicide bomber detonated his explosive-laden vest near a van carrying Japanese autoworkers, who narrowly escaped the attack Friday that wounded three bystanders in Pakistan’s port city of Karachi, police said.

The van had been heading to an industrial area where the five Japanese nationals worked at Pakistan Suzuki Motors, local police chief Arshad Awan said. He said police escorting the Japanese returned fire after coming under attack, killing an accomplice of the suicide bomber whose remains were found from the scene of the attack.

“All the Japanese who were the target of the attack are safe,” he said.

Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif denounced the attack on the Japanese nationals. In separate statements, they praised police for quickly responding and foiling the attack. They also vowed to eliminate terrorism and prayed for the speedy recovery of those wounded in the attack.

Images on local news channels showed a damaged van, as police officers arrived at the scene of the attack. Awan said the three passersby who were wounded in the attack were in stable condition at a hospital.

Police were escorting the van after receiving reports about possible attacks on foreigners who are working in Pakistan on various Chinese-funded and other projects, said Tariq Mastoi, a senior police officer. He said a timely and quick response from the guards and police foiled the attack and both attackers were killed.

No one immediately claimed responsibility, but suspicion is likely to fall on a small separatist group or the Pakistani Taliban who have stepped up attacks on security forces in recent years. Insurgents have also targeted Chinese who are working in Pakistan on projects relating to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which includes a multitude of megaprojects such as road construction, power plants and agriculture.

In March, five Chinese and their Pakistani driver were killed when a suicide bomber in northwest Pakistan rammed his explosive-laden car into a vehicle when they were heading to the Dasu Dam, the biggest hydropower project in Pakistan, where they worked.

However, Japanese working in Pakistan have not been the target of any such attacks.

Karachi is the largest city in Pakistan and the capital of southern Sindh province.
Five Japanese escape unhurt in Pakistan suicide blast attack (Reuters)
Reuters [4/19/2024 4:14 AM, Ariba Shahid and Gibran Peshimam, 5.2M, Neutral]
Five Japanese nationals in Pakistan escaped unhurt on Friday from a suicide bomb attack on their vehicle as police shot down a gunman accompanying the bomber, a police spokesperson said, but two bystanders were among the three injured.

Islamist militants seeking to overthrow the government and set up their own strict brand of Islamic rule have launched some of Pakistan’s bloodiest attacks during the last few years, with some separatist groups targeting foreigners, including Chinese.

No militant group immediately claimed responsibility for the rare attack on Japanese nationals, however, with Pakistani authorities identifying them as engineers working for the management of an export processing zone in the port city.

The Japanese have been moved to a safe place in police custody, the spokesperson, Abrar Hussain Baloch, said, although the bystanders and a guard with the visitors suffered injuries.

"The police mobile unit, which was nearby, responded to the attackers quickly and the security guards of the foreign guests responded immediately," Baloch added.

In Tokyo, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, told a press conference that one Japanese national was confirmed to have been injured and the government was checking details, having flagged the risk to other citizens in Pakistan.

One of the two motorcycle-borne attackers set off explosives tied to his body as soon as the vehicle slowed, Pakistani counter-terrorism official Raja Umar Khatab told reporters, but failed to strike his target.

That prompted his accomplice to start shooting at the vehicle.

"I think he fired some 15 or 16 shots," Khatab said, adding that private security guards with the foreigners and a nearby police patrol returned fire and killed the second attacker.

The men had followed the Japanese group’s vehicle for some time before the attack, he said, with authorities suspecting they carried out reconnaissance to identify the target and location of the attack.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack, praising the timely police action for saving lives.
Gunmen ambush vehicle carrying customs officials in northwest Pakistan, killing 4 officers (AP)
AP [4/18/2024 11:17 AM, Staff, 223K, Negative]
Unidentified gunmen ambushed a vehicle carrying officials from the customs department in troubled northwest Pakistan on Thursday evening, killing four of them before fleeing the scene, police said.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack which happened in Dera Ismail Khan, a district in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, local police official Nasir Khan said.

The motive behind the attack wasn’t immediately clear.

Khan said police transported the bodies of the slain officers to a hospital and officers were still investigating.

Pakistan has witnessed a surge in violence, mostly blamed on the Pakistani Taliban, who are known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. It’s a separate group but allied with the Afghan Taliban, which seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021.

Many TTP leaders and fighters have found sanctuary in Afghanistan since then and TTP often claims such attacks on security forces and other officials.
India
Modi’s Power Keeps Growing, and India Looks Sure to Give Him More (New York Times)
New York Times [4/19/2024 12:01 AM, Mujib Mashal, 831K, Neutral]
As he campaigns across India for an election that begins on Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks of his insatiable ambitions in terms of dinner-table appetite.

Roofs over heads, water connections, cooking gas cylinders — Mr. Modi reads down the menu of what he calls the abundant “development” he has provided to India’s poor. But he’s not stopping there. “What Modi has done so far is just the appetizer,” he said at one stop, referring to himself in the third person, as he often does. “The main course is yet to come.”

To Mr. Modi’s legions of supporters, a third term would bring more of what they find so appealing in him. He is that rare breed of strongman who keeps an ear to the ground. He is a magnetic figure and a powerful orator. He has built an image as a tireless, incorruptible worker for a country on the rise.

But to his critics, Mr. Modi’s talk of a “main course” is an alarm bell for the future of the world’s largest democracy.

Mr. Modi, 73, enters the election a heavy favorite, his party’s grip over India’s more populous northern and central heartlands firmer than ever, the opposition in the same decisive geography even more diminished. Yet even with his place as India’s unrivaled leader seemingly secured, he has carried out a crackdown on dissent that has only intensified.

In the lead-up to the voting, which will run for six weeks before results are announced on June 4, agencies under Mr. Modi’s control have frozen the bank accounts of the largest opposition party. The leaders of two opposition-run states have been thrown in jail, in cases they call politically motivated. (The capital region, New Delhi, is currently governed by a chief minister who sends his directives from behind bars.)

All of this, Mr. Modi’s critics say, shows the penchant for full control that has become evident over his decade as prime minister. Mr. Modi, they contend, will not stop until he has turned India’s democracy into one-party rule. Power is being aggressively consolidated “around the cult of the leader’s personality,” said Yamini Aiyar, a policy analyst in New Delhi.

“The deep centralization of power has significantly undermined institutional checks and balances baked into India’s democratic structure,” Ms. Aiyar said.

Many Indians seem willing to accept this. Mr. Modi has remained deeply popular even as he has become more autocratic. He has paid little price — and even found support — for his effort to remake India into what analysts have called an illiberal democracy.

He exploits contradictions. The right to vote is held as sacred in a country whose democracy has offered protection in a turbulent region. But polling also indicates that large numbers of Indians are willing to cede civil liberties to support a powerful ruler they see as getting things done.

Another seeming incongruity: People who speak of their own economic strife also often express faith in Mr. Modi’s running of the country’s affairs, a testament to the forceful narratives he weaves.

Indians have more tangible reasons to back him, too. Mr. Modi relentlessly tends his broad support base through generous offerings across society: favorable deals for the business elite in a growing economy, robust welfare programs for India’s impoverished majority, and a strong dose of Hindu nationalism for those in between.

A campaign stop this month in his party’s stronghold of Uttar Pradesh illustrated this winning formula.

Mr. Modi stood in the back of a saffron-colored truck as it moved slowly down a shopping street lined with global brands and jewelry shops, a scene that spoke to the new wealth that has lifted millions of Indians into the middle class.

Overhead, billboards with pictures of Mr. Modi — his face is everywhere in India — told of achievements like the installation of more than 100 million toilets for the poor and India’s rising stature.

At the end of the “roadshow,” at the junction where Mr. Modi’s vehicle turned right and headed back to Delhi, was a stage set up with loudspeakers. As Hindu nationalist songs blared, actors dressed up as the deities Ram and Sita posed for selfies with the crowd.

Mr. Modi’s inauguration in January of a huge temple dedicated to Ram, on the disputed site of a mosque razed three decades ago by a Hindu mob, has been a major election-year offering to his Hindu base.

“We are Hindu, we are Hindu, we will only speak of Ram,” went one song’s chant. “Those who brought Ram, we will bring them to power.”

Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., started in 1980 as an urban middle-class organization centered around a Hindu majoritarian core. Under Mr. Modi, it has recast itself as the party of the poor and of the village in northern India, analysts say.

Some in India believe that poorer people have merely fallen under Mr. Modi’s spell. Nalin Mehta, the author of the book “The New B.J.P.,” called that fundamentally wrong.

“The fact that the B.J.P. continues to win these victories reflects how successful it has been in getting newer constituents of voters who never voted B.J.P. before, and who may not even be followers of Hindu nationalism,” he said.

Mr. Mehta attributes much of that success to the party’s expansion and branding of welfare programs and its efforts to promote itself as pan-Hindu, actively reaching out to India’s marginalized castes.

By prioritizing direct digital welfare payments, the B.J.P. has cut out the middleman and made sure the handouts are seen as coming straight from Mr. Modi.

Technology also allows the party to follow up, with B.J.P. workers — armed with data — knocking on the door of anyone who received a water tap, a gas cylinder or a government grant to build a home.

Data creates layers of feedback that help the party pick its candidates, jettisoning large numbers of incumbents before each election. “This B.J.P. is very ruthless on winnability,” Mr. Mehta said.

Bringing it all together are Mr. Modi’s outsize appeal and his political and technological acumen.

He has put his personal story at the center of his narrative of an ascendant India, the main pillar of his campaign. If a lower-caste son of a chai seller can become one of the most powerful men in the world, he says, other ordinary Indians can dream, too.

While inequality has grown and 800 million Indians are at the mercy of monthly rations, many focus instead on their faith that Mr. Modi is not a thief. He casts himself as a bachelor with no descendants who works only for the Indian people, unlike what he calls the corrupt political dynasts in the opposition.

“Modi wasn’t born in some royal family to become prime minister,” he told a crowd of tens of thousands in the state of Maharashtra. “It’s you who have brought him this far.”

The political opposition has been severely weakened by infighting, leadership crises and its struggle to offer an ideological alternative to the B.J.P.

But it also faces a playing field that Mr. Modi has tilted in his own favor.

He has cowed the broadcast media. Independent journalists who do question his policies have been jailed or subjected to legal harassment. India leads the world in internet shutdowns, obscuring unrest that looks bad for the government. And officials under Mr. Modi have forced social media platforms to scrape critical content.

Investigating agencies have been set loose on Mr. Modi’s political opponents — more than 90 percent of cases involving politicians over the past decade have involved the opposition. Many languish in jail or the court system. Those who switch allegiance to the B.J.P. find that their cases vanish.

On the campaign trail in the state of West Bengal, an opposition candidate, Mahua Moitra, spoke of saving democracy from the authoritarianism she said had led to her own expulsion from Parliament — in a messy case involving a former romantic partner, a Rottweiler named Henry and accusations of graft.

Autocracy and Mr. Modi’s perceived coziness with billionaires have been the opposition’s two main attack lines. While campaigning, Ms. Moitra told a group of women that they were still waiting for government money to build homes because Mr. Modi “is busy building palaces for his friends.”

Analysts doubt that either issue will resonate widely. Many Indians, particularly in his stronghold in the north, which has a decisive say in who rules from New Delhi, like exactly what they are getting from Mr. Modi.

“He is the prime minister, and if he is not strong enough, then what good would it be?” Anjali Vishwakarma, 37, an interior designer, said as she walked along the Ganges one recent day with her family in Mr. Modi’s constituency of Varanasi.
Why India’s Opposition Can’t Get It Together (New York Times)
New York Times [4/19/2024 4:13 AM, Sameer Yasir, 831K, Neutral]
The last time Indians voted in a national election, in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, won running away. But even then, more than 60 percent of voters cast ballots for other parties.

That Mr. Modi has established such dominance in Parliament despite falling well short of majority popular support is a reflection of a dysfunctional and fractured political opposition.

The main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, governed for decades after the country’s independence in 1947, guided by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. The party’s standing is now much reduced: In 2019, it won 52 seats in Parliament to the B.J.P.’s 303. It is not expected to do much better in this year’s election, which began on Friday and runs for six weeks.

Here’s why India’s political opposition is in such dire straits.

The Congress is a shell of what it once was.

The Congress, long positioned at India’s political center, has struggled to find a direction and offer an ideological alternative to the Hindu nationalist B.J.P. That has held back the broader opposition’s fight against Mr. Modi.

The Congress has faced a leadership crisis, a series of rebellions and bouts of infighting. Even after two consecutive losses to Mr. Modi, the party has stuck to its dynastic leadership. It has again put forward Rahul Gandhi, the son, grandson and great-grandson of Indian prime ministers, as its face in taking on Mr. Modi.

Mr. Gandhi has tried to increase his political weight by leading long marches across the country, including one of more than 2,000 miles. But when he has seemed to find momentum, the B.J.P. has moved to check it.

After his first march, which drew large crowds, the B.J.P. ensnared him in a court case that led to his expulsion from Parliament. He was later returned to his seat by India’s highest court.

His party’s losses in a couple of important state elections in recent months also threw it off course, laying bare the extent of its deeply entrenched problems.

A coalition of parties has trouble uniting.

In the months before the election, a range of opposition parties formed an alliance catchily named INDIA, short for the less mellifluous Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.

The coalition’s creation caused unease among B.J.P. leaders, suggesting that the election could be a less one-sided affair.

But a series of bitter disagreements over the sharing of seats among alliance members has disappointed many supporters. In some states, parties in the coalition failed to iron out longstanding differences, putting the protection of local turf over the national ambition of challenging Mr. Modi.

One state’s chief minister, who was a founder and prominent face of the opposition bloc, even switched sides to join the B.J.P. Mr. Modi has been relentless in trying to split the coalition, luring some members with incentives and bogging down others with investigations and jail sentences.

Modi uses the government to go after opponents.

Opposition groups say Mr. Modi is having government agencies do his political work for him. They seem to have good reason: Opposition leaders have been the target of about 90 percent of the cases involving politicians pursued by the country’s top financial crimes agency since Mr. Modi took power in 2014.

Weeks before this year’s election, tax agencies under Mr. Modi moved to freeze the Congress’s bank accounts, leaving the party paralyzed. The Modi government has also sent two chief ministers from opposition parties to jail.

While the Congress has long been the subject of Mr. Modi’s wrath — he has even declared that he wants a “Congress-free India” — a smaller outfit, the Aam Aadmi Party, or A.A.P., has faced a particularly harsh crackdown.

Mr. Modi, analysts say, sees the A.A.P. as a potential national challenger as the Congress fades. The party runs the governments in the Delhi capital region and in the state of Punjab, and has made inroads in Mr. Modi’s home state of Gujarat.

Opposition attack lines find limited traction.

The opposition coalition has gone after Mr. Modi largely on two issues: the increasing authoritarianism it says is turning India’s democracy into one-party rule, and political corruption it contends is enriching a small elite.

Opposition leaders have also pointed to growing inequality and India’s huge shortfall in jobs, particularly for its massive population of young people.

It’s unclear whether these lines of attack have done much to dent Mr. Modi’s standing. He has amassed great power and popularity through a potent mix of Hindu majoritarianism, robust welfare programs and his own personal charisma.

Mr. Modi also has enormous control over India’s channels of information, with the broadcast media particularly bent to his wishes.
India starts voting in the world’s largest election as Modi seeks a third term as prime minister (AP)
AP [4/18/2024 10:46 PM, Ashok Sharma, 22K, Neutral]
Millions of Indians began voting Friday in a six-week election that’s a referendum on Narendra Modi, the populist prime minister who has championed an assertive brand of Hindu nationalist politics and is seeking a rare third term as the country’s leader.

The voters began queuing up at polling stations hours before they were allowed in at 7 a.m. in the first 21 states to hold votes, from the Himalayan mountains to the tropical Andaman Islands. Nearly 970 million voters — more than 10% of the world’s population — will elect 543 members to the lower house of Parliament for five years during the staggered elections that run until June 1. The votes will be counted on June 4.

One voter said she came early to avoid the summer heat later in the day.

Prime Minister Modi urged people to vote in record numbers. “I particularly call upon the young and first-time voters to vote in large numbers. After all, every vote counts and every voice matters!” he said in a message on the social media platform X.

This election is seen as one of the most consequential in India’s history and will test the limits of Modi’s political dominance.

If Modi wins, he’ll be only the second Indian leader to retain power for a third term, after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.

Most polls predict a win for Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, who are up against a broad opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress and powerful regional parties.

It’s not clear who will lead India if the opposition alliance, called INDIA, wins the election. Its more than 20 parties have not put forward a candidate, saying they will choose one after the results are known.

The BJP is facing the toughest challenge in southern Tamil Nadu state with 39 seats where the voting is being held on Friday. The BJP drew a blank in 2019 and won one seat in the 2014 elections with the region dominated by two powerful regional groups, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

Modi focussed on the state this time and visited it more than a dozen times, holding several rallies and roadshows.

P. Chidambaram, an opposition Congress party leader and the country’s former finance minister, said after voting in Tamil Nadu state that people would not vote for the BJP in the state as “It is imposing one language, one culture, one system and one kind of food.”

The voting also is taking place in the northeastern state of Manipur that was ravaged by a near-civil war for a year caused by fighting between the majority Meitei and tribal Kuki-Zo people. Mobs have rampaged through villages and torched houses.

The election authority has set up voting stations for nearly 320 relief camps where more than 59,000 men, women and children are living. The state stands divided between a valley controlled by the Meiteis and the Kuki-dominated hills.

More than 150 people were killed and over 60,000 displaced. The voting for two seats will be completed on April 26.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP and its allies had won 39 of 102 seats where the voting is taking place on Friday. These include Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and West Bengal states.

The election comes after a decade of Modi’s leadership, during which the BJP has consolidated power through a combination of Hindu-first politics and economic development.

Modi has ratcheted up Hindu nationalist rhetoric on the campaign trail, and has sought to present himself as a global leader. His ministers tout him as the steward of a surging India, while his supporters celebrate his campaign promise to make India a developed nation by 2047, when it marks 100 years of independence.

But while India’s economy is among the world’s fastest-growing, many of its people face growing economic distress. The opposition alliance is hoping to tap into this, seeking to galvanize voters on issues like high unemployment, inflation, corruption and low agricultural prices that have driven two years of farmers’ protests.

Critics warn that Modi has turned increasingly illiberal and that he could use a third term to undermine India’s democracy. His Hindu nationalist politics, they argue, has bred intolerance and threatens the country’s secular roots.

The alliance has promised to arrest the democratic slide it says India has witnessed under Modi’s rule. They accuse Modi of sidelining elected ministers in favor of trusted bureaucrats and using tax authorities and the police to harass critics and opposition parties.

“Modi has a very authoritarian mindset. He doesn’t believe in democracy. He doesn’t believe in Parliamentarianism,” said Christophe Jaffrelot, who has written about Modi and the Hindu right.

Modi insists that India’s commitment to democracy is unchanged. He told a Summit for Democracy meeting in New Delhi in March that ‘“India is not only fulfilling the aspirations of its 1.4 billion people, but is also providing hope to the world that democracy delivers and empowers.’’

The Indian leader enjoys vast popularity among India’s 1.4 billion people. His BJP dominates in Hindi-speaking northern and central parts of India, and is now trying to gain a foothold in the east and south to capture a two-thirds majority. Modi and other BJP candidates have repeatedly vowed to take at least 400 seats.

The party hopes for a landslide win powered by its popular welfare programs, which it says have improved access to clean toilets, health care and cooking gas, as well as providing free grain to the poor. Moves like the construction of a controversial temple to Ram on the site of a demolished mosque, and the scrapping of the disputed Muslim-majority region of Kashmir’s former autonomy, may resonate with supporters who hail him as the champion of the Hindu majority.

“Any party that comes back for a third term, and with a brute majority, is a scary prospect for democracy,” said Arati Jerath, a political commentator.

Modi’s two terms have seen civil liberties in India come under attack and it implementing what critics say are discriminatory policies. Peaceful protests have been crushed with force. A once free and diverse press is threatened, violence is on the rise against the Muslim minority, and government agencies have arrested opposition politicians in alleged corruption cases.

The BJP has denied its policies are discriminatory and says its work benefits all Indians.
India begins voting in gigantic election as Modi seeks historic third term (Reuters)
Reuters [4/18/2024 10:48 PM, Krishn Kaushik, Praveen Paramasivam, and YP Rajesh, 11975K, Neutral]
India began voting on Friday in the world’s largest election as Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a historic third term in office on the back of growth, welfare, his personal popularity and Hindu nationalism.

The vote pits Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) against an alliance of two dozen opposition parties which is challenging him with promises of increased affirmative action, more handouts and what they say is the need to save democratic institutions from Modi’s dictatorial rule.

The gigantic exercise involving almost one billion voters will be spread over seven phases across the world’s most populous country at the peak of summer. It ends on June 1 and votes will be counted on June 4.

On Friday, in the largest of the seven phases, 166 million voters in 102 constituencies across 21 states and territories will vote, including in Tamil Nadu in the south, Arunachal Pradesh on the Himalayan frontier with China, and the most populous Uttar Pradesh in the north.

Voters began lining up outside polling stations much before they opened at 7:00 a.m. (0130 GMT) amid tight security, including senior citizens who needed help to reach the booths.

"Modi will come back to power, because apart from the religious push, his other work, including on safety and security is good," said Abdul Sattar, 32, a Muslim voter in Uttar Pradesh’s Kairana, about 100 km (60 miles) from Delhi.

Mohammed Shabbir, a 60-year-old driver and father of eight, said unemployment was the main issue for him as none of his children have regular jobs.

Hindu nationalism is not an issue in this election, "because even the Hindus are affected by a lack of jobs", he said.

Surveys suggest BJP will easily win a majority even though voters have serious concerns about unemployment, inflation and rural distress in the world’s fastest growing major economy, with the spotlight being on whether BJP can improve on its 2019 victory and by how much.

"In the next five years, we will take our nation into the top three economies of the world, launch a final and decisive assault against poverty, open up newer avenues of growth ... unveil the next generation of reforms, and take a number of pro-people decisions and actions," Modi wrote in the BJP’s election manifesto.

The manifesto and the theme of the BJP campaign is titled "Modi Ki Guarantee" or Modi’s guarantee to fulfill promises made to voters, underlining the unusual leader-centric, presidential-style pitch in a parliamentary system.

"I urge all those voting ... to exercise their franchise in record numbers," Modi posted on X, minutes before polling began.

"I particularly call upon the young and first time voters to vote in large numbers. After all, every vote counts and every voice matters," he said.

OPPOSITION WEAK, FRAGMENTED

If he wins, Modi will be only the second Indian prime minister to be elected three times in a row, after post-independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru.

Modi says that his first two terms were appetisers and the main course will be served in the third term. BJP hoardings across towns and cities highlight a range of achievements in his two terms, including India’s historic landing on the moon’s south pole and fighting corruption to woo voters.

Hindu nationalism is a key theme. Modi’s government and BJP are accused by critics of discriminating against or targeting India’s 200 million minority Muslims to please their hardline Hindu base - charges both deny. Sporadic violence between Hindus and Muslims continues to break out.

The opposition INDIA alliance says the election is an ideological battle being fought to stop the BJP from ending the constitutional and democratic system.

Rahul Gandhi, leader of the main opposition Congress party, said the BJP always seeks to divert attention from major issues such as unemployment and price rise.

"Sometimes the PM goes underwater in the ocean and sometimes he is on a seaplane but does not talk about issues," Gandhi said, referring to Modi’s widely publicised engagements in recent months.

While the alliance has struggled to forge unity and field common candidates against the BJP, it has accused the government of denying it a level playing field by arresting opposition leaders in corruption cases and making huge tax demands ahead of the vote - charges the government denies.

Chandrachur Singh, who teaches politics at Delhi’s Hindu College, said the BJP has a clear edge but also faces real challenges.

"It’s not an election where there are no issues," he said. "There are issues which could have led to anti-incumbency. But that is something which is not being channelised or harnessed by a fragmented, divided, weak opposition."

"That is what is causing some kind of disillusionment among voters and allowing BJP to surge ahead."
India opens world’s biggest elections with lower house voting (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [4/18/2024 10:09 PM, Kiran Sharma, 293K, Neutral]
India on Friday began voting in the first of its seven-phase general elections that will carry on until early June, the world’s biggest electoral exercise, in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is eyeing a third five-year term.

In the first phase, 102 of 543 constituencies of the lower parliamentary house, the Lok Sabha, will be up for grabs. The world’s largest democracy has 36 states and federally governed territories. Of these, 22 are voting in a single day, nine have double, triple or four polling dates, while two face a five-stage election. Three remaining ones -- northern Uttar Pradesh state with 80 seats, the most in the country; and eastern West Bengal with 42 and Bihar 40 -- are voting in all seven stages up to June 1.

The South Asian country of over 1.4 billion has about 970 million registered voters. After Friday, the next votes will be held on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25, and June 1. The counting of all votes will take place on June 4, and the results are expected on the same day.

A party or coalition needs a simple majority of 272 seats to form a government. Modi’s BJP easily secured a majority in the last two elections, winning 303 seats in 2019 and 282 in 2014. Even though it was in position to form a government on its own, it continued to head the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which was founded in 1998. Many opinion polls predict a third straight term for the BJP-led NDA.

The main opposition Indian National Congress party, which ruled the country for many decades after it gained independence from British rule in 1947, is struggling to reclaim past glory. Now part of the anti-BJP Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance formed in July, the party won just 52 seats in the 2019 elections and 44 in 2014 on its own.

Modi is hugely popular. Many credit him for India’s impressive economic growth. His government also launched a number of schemes for the poor, such as offering them free grains and building them houses. He would also have won over many Hindu voters after he opened a Lord Ram temple in Ayodhya in northern Uttar Pradesh on a site that was once a flashpoint of Hindu-Muslim conflict. About 80% of India’s population is Hindu and Muslims make up a little over 14%.
India says it is ready to mitigate economic impact of Iran-Israel conflict (Reuters)
Reuters [4/18/2024 7:31 AM, Nikunj Ohri and Shilpa Jamkhandikar, 5239K, Neutral]
India is prepared to take adequate steps to mitigate any impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on its economy and will "remain alert", Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Thursday.

"Can’t say that we are fully ready. As developments unfold, we are preparing to take adequate steps in India’s interests," Sitharaman told the CNBC Awaaz news channel in an interview.

The conflict has not yet significantly impacted global oil prices.

However, any escalation of tension in the oil-rich middle east could raise India’s oil import bill. India is the world’s third biggest oil importer, and ships in about 85% of its oil needs from overseas.

Sitharaman said India started importing oil from Russia to cushion the country from higher prices after sanctions were imposed by Western countries.

"Similarly in every challenge, we decide to take steps in India’s interest after discussions with government departments. And definitely we will remain alert," she said.
NSB
Sputtering economy threatens progress in Bangladesh (VOA)
VOA [4/18/2024 6:05 PM, Sabir Mustafa, 761K, Neutral]
Once hailed for its strides in economic growth and social advancement, Bangladesh now grapples with an uncertain trajectory as its faltering economy threatens to reverse hard-won gains in poverty alleviation.

Recent data from the national statistics agency reveals a stark reality: The economy is falling significantly short of expectations.

According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the country’s gross domestic product, or GDP, expanded by 3.78% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, a notable decline from the 7% growth recorded in the corresponding period the prior year. With inflation hovering around 10%, the economic landscape appears bleak.

Industrial output grew 3.24%, which compared poorly with 10% growth in the same period last year. Similarly, the service sector grew 3.06% in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, less than half its growth rate a year ago. These two sectors together account for more than 80% of the economy.

Such sluggish performance has caused the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, to revise its forecast for the year to 5.7% – lowered from the 6% growth it had predicted for Bangladesh earlier.

Economists such as Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow at the Center for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka, are concerned that low growth will mean fewer job opportunities and lower income, which would hit hardest the people who have the least.

"An increase in the number of people in poverty is a high possibility, and a deepening of inequality in income and consumption," Bhattacharya told VOA.

However, Bangladeshi Finance Minister Hasan Mahmood Ali has dismissed fears about the IMF revision, saying reforms undertaken by the government "are beginning to bear fruit."

Bangladesh made significant progress over the past decade, bringing down the poverty level from 41.5% in 2006 to 18.7% in 2022.

The economic slowdown has not come as a surprise to Bhattacharya, who said such figures could be predicted for some time.

"The main reason is, in order to have growth we need investment, and [to] allow the investors to import goods, but we are not able to do that because of lack of foreign currency."

Foreign currency reserves have come under pressure since the economy reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the central bank’s figures, reserves declined from a high of $48 billion in August 2021 to below $20 billion in April 2024.

Bhattacharya said the high rate of inflation, which has affected people across the board, but particularly middle- and low-income groups, has seriously slowed demand and consumption. According to government figures, inflation in Bangladesh is currently running above 9%.

Economic analysts such as Mamun Rashid, however, believe the real figure is much higher. Currently the chairman at Financial Excellence Ltd., a private company, he recently retired as managing partner at Pricewaterhouse Coopers in Dhaka, and he earlier was managing director at Citibank N.A in Bangladesh, among other jobs.

Rashid said consumption in Bangladesh is driven by export earnings, inflow of remittances sent by migrant workers and money circulation. While exports and remittances have held steady, money circulation has been squeezed by the central bank’s efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates.

The veteran banker said corruption and weak regulation were key factors underpinning the foreign currency crisis, which has hit business hard.

"When there is a lot of money floating around from corruption or undocumented work, it fuels capital flight and reduces inward flow of dollars," he said.

According to Washington-based anti-corruption watchdog Global Financial Integrity, from 2004 to 2013, Bangladesh lost an average of $5.5 billion annually through illicit outflows. Bangladesh also does not receive all of its export receipts, as billions of dollars are siphoned off annually through trade misinvoicing.

Before the pandemic hit in early 2020, Bangladesh grew at an average of more than 6%, fueled by garment exports, agriculture and huge government investment in infrastructure such as bridges, roads and highways. The World Bank in 2021 called it "one of the great development stories."

The growth was achieved despite several structural flaws in the economy that are becoming more visible, according to Bhattacharya. The current government in its three successive terms in office (since 2009) has not increased private investment’s share of the GDP. The private investment-to-GDP ratio has remained at 23% for 13 to 14 years. Foreign direct investment has remained below 2% of GDP.

Despite the problems, international development institutions such as the World Bank, IMF and the U.N. Development Program remain on board.

"They still believe in Bangladesh. That’s why Bangladesh can count on around $10 billion worth of multilateral aid," Rashid said.

While Rashid is optimistic that export earnings and remittances from the 6 million Bangladeshis working abroad can increase and reignite the engine of growth, Bhattacharya says the current "growth narrative" is no longer sustainable without major reforms in the banking, financial and energy sectors.

"The time of reckoning has come," he said.
A former Maldives president is freed after a high court throws out his 11-year sentence (AP)
AP [4/18/2024 9:27 PM, Staff, 22K, Neutral]
A court in the Maldives on Thursday threw out former President Abdulla Yameen’s 11-year prison sentence on money laundering and bribery charges and ordered a retrial.

The development comes two days ahead of parliamentary elections in this Indian Ocean archipelago nation, known as an exclusive tourist destination.

The ruling, which was broadcast on the court’s YouTube channel, is seen as a potential boost to President Mohamed Muizzu’s party, which is seeking to secure a majority in the 87-member Parliament. Yameen and Muizzu have long been political allies.

The High Court ruled on Yameen’s appeal and said in its decision that his 2022 trial before the Criminal Court was unfair and released him.

The lower court had convicted Yameen two years ago of accepting money for leasing an island owned by the government, which he was accused of having done during his 2013-2018 term in office.

Last October, Yameen was transferred from prison to house arrest after Muizzu won the Maldives’ presidential election.

No date has been scheduled for the retrial.
Maldives court overturns ex-president Yameen’s jail term (Reuters)
Reuters [4/18/2024 12:24 PM, Mohamed Junayd, 11975K, Neutral]
A Maldives high court overturned former president Abdulla Yameen’s 11-year jail term on Thursday and asked a lower court to restart criminal proceedings against him.

Yameen was convicted in December 2022 of corruption and money laundering over kickbacks from a private company relating to the award of islands for tourism development while he was president.

The high court overturned the prison sentence due to procedural irregularities and ordered the lower court to restart the trial on charges of bribery and money laundering. Yameen is also on trial for separate bribery charges at the court.

In the high court verdict, a three-judge bench ruled that due to the actions of the lower criminal court during the trial, Yameen was unable to exercise his rights. This includes a decision made by the court to accept new evidence that rebutted defence witnesses, after the trial had started.

Last year, Yameen lost the opportunity to stand in the September presidential elections because of his conviction.

His party, which supported President Mohamed Muizzu, backed an "India Out" campaign. Muizzu’s government has asked dozens of locally based Indian military personnel to leave in a move critics warn could see the archipelagic nation shift closer to China.

Maldives will hold its parliamentary election on Sunday.
Is Maldives Ready for Its Tactical Drones? (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [4/18/2024 9:02 AM, Athaulla A Rasheed, 201K, Neutral]
The recent shipment of Turkey-supplied Bayraktar TB2 armed tactical drones will introduce Maldives’ defense industry to more sophisticated military technologies.

The technology is set to help patrol the Indian Ocean around the archipelago, a task that Maldives formerly performed with the assistance of India and Sri Lanka. Instead, it is now hoped the Maldives National Defense Force’s officers and crews of maritime vessels will have better awareness and surveillance capabilities against any threats emerging from and outside the country’s territory – the new drone platform will complement the existing regional arrangements.

The drones were introduced by President Mohamed Muizzu at the inauguration of the first Air Corps of the Maldives Defense Force in March 2024.

The Turkish-made drone was brought to Maldives under a new bilateral cooperation between the countries. Some of the initial diplomatic talks gained weight in Muizzu’s first international trip after assuming office in November 2023.

The Bayraktar TB2, sold by Turkish military contractors to 33 countries, has been used in conflicts from Azerbaijan and Libya and helped Ukraine fight back the Russian invasion in the early stages of the war.

But this is not a purely aggressive posturing for a drone system that can be effective in warfare. Maldives requires this new technology as a developing nation fighting against geography – this primarily involves various forms of non-traditional threats arising from the broad maritime domain.

Maldives has a total land area of 20,130 square km (formed by 1190 islands) situated in 974,000 square km of the Indian Ocean that needs constant watch against internal and external threats. More than 98 percent of its territory is open water.

This drone system can provide the platform for effective surveillance and search and rescue capabilities, and for collecting data on local and commercial activities at sea.

To understand why Maldives needs these drones, we need to understand its domestic security conditions.

Five major international shipping lanes traverse Maldivian waters, and the maritime traffic passing through also uses various sea lines of communication in its territory. Maldives has harbors and airports spread across its islands that support local and commercial traffic: the Malé Commercial Harbor, Hulhumalé International Terminal (and port area), Kulhudhuffushi Regional Port (north), and Hithadhoo Regional Port (south) situated across its island territory.

Most threats are linked to the large ocean territory.

Maritime accidents associated with climate-induced extreme weather events, chemical and oil spills from commercial vessels in bad weather — such as the X-Press Pearl (the “toxic ship”) incident in 2021 — piracy, drugs and arms trafficking, and illegal fishing all underline the importance of expanding the defense forces’ capabilities to attend to multiple events that could disrupt the sustainability, economic viability, and security of the Maldivian economy.

Maldives records around 10,000-15,000 tonnes of tuna a year caught illegally by foreign vessels. Not only that, illegal fishing vessels are also used for other crimes that originate outside Maldivian waters, such as drugs and arms trafficking. The changing patterns of these vessels must be monitored regularly to prevent potential harm to local and commercial activities.

In addition to local and commercial activities at sea, maritime threats can potentially harm the effective functioning of the country’s multi-billion dollar tourism industry, which its economy relies on heavily. Protecting Maldives’ assets – its picture-perfect islands – is a part of the defense force’s national security efforts and the advanced defense technology can pave the way for a better data collecting and sharing system between local industries.

Giving the defense forces the ability to improve their capabilities by training its military personnel to operate drones and establishing a sophisticated technology platform to maximize performance between the Air Corps and other defense force efforts is crucial to ensuring the country’s economic future.

Historically, the closest to an air-based operation the Maldives has partaken in is the World War II-era British Royal Air Force’s supply, fueling, and landing operations in its southernmost atoll, Addu’s military base.

Modern warfare has, however, changed things. Maldives’ defense force is now taking new turns to own and run military technologies — such as using drones for surveillance — to accelerate its locally-based capacity, particularly in the non-traditional security domain.

The local advancement will also contribute to the DOSTI trilateral exercises and Indo-Pacific partnerships.

With its own fleet of drones, Maldives can streamline regional security engagements and maximize data and resource sharing with its neighbors. More importantly, it will allow the country to effectively lead some aspects of defense and security capabilities and engagements in its own territory.
Deep Wounds In Sri Lanka Five Years Since Easter Massacre (Agence France-Presse)
Agence France-Presse [4/19/2024 4:14 AM, Amal Jayasinghe, 304K, Neutral]
Sri Lanka marks on Sunday five years since Islamist bombers slaughtered 279 people in the island’s deadliest suicide attack, but grieving families say they are still waiting for justice.

Government employee Saman Sirimanna, 59, and his wife Sriyani, 57, lost their two children when a suicide bomber stormed into St. Anthony’s church in the capital Colombo on Easter Day 2019.

It was part of a wave of attacks that included three luxury hotels and two other churches in the majority Buddhist nation.

Sirimanna said his 19-year-old son and 22-year-old daughter had gone to "seek blessings" for good exam results.

"My loss is irreplaceable", Sirimanna told AFP, with tears in his eyes. "My children will never return."

Among the dead were 45 foreigners, including tourists visiting the island a decade after the end of a brutal civil war.

Sirimanna is bitter over delays in court proceedings and a dragging investigation into the bombings.

A court last year ruled that Sri Lanka’s ex-president and top officials had failed to heed urgent warnings that the attacks were imminent.

An inquiry into the bombings found the attacks were the work of a homegrown jihadist group that declared an affiliation with the Islamic State group.

But survivors and bereaved families are demanding a proper investigation into claims of links between the bombers and Sri Lankan intelligence officials.

"I am the first person who filed legal action," Sirimanna said. "I went to court because the authorities did not carry out their responsibilities."

Evidence tendered during a civil case brought by Sirimanna and other relatives of the dead showed that Indian intelligence officials warned Colombo of the attack more than two weeks earlier.

The Supreme Court ruled last year that top officials, including then-president Maithripala Sirisena, had been negligent in failing to prevent the bombings. Sirisena was in Singapore on the day of the attacks.

It ordered the defendants to pay 310 million rupees ($1 million) in compensation to victims and relatives.

But the ruling has yet to be fully implemented as Sirisena has appealed the order.

"The court gave them six months to pay -- they didn’t," Sirimanna said, noting the next hearing in the case is scheduled for July.

"We hope at least then there will be some justice," he added.

Successive governments have failed to probe media claims that Suresh Sallay, a top military intelligence official linked to former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa, had connections with the bombers.

Rajapaksa, a retired army officer, won a landslide presidential election seven months after the attacks, campaigning on a pledge to keep Sri Lanka safe.

He appointed Sallay as head of Sri Lanka’s main intelligence agency.

Rajapaksa was ousted around two years ago when protesters stormed his compound during an unprecedented economic crisis.

His successor, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, announced a probe into Sallay’s relationship with the attackers last September.

But there has been no public announcement of its progress -- and the intelligence chief remains in his role.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has urged an independent investigation with international help to establish the "full circumstances" of the bombings.

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, the leader of the Catholic church in Sri Lanka, said the lack of a credible investigation had shaken people’s trust in the government.

"We have been critical of government people and various authorities over and over again, but no positive response has come," he told AFP.

"We are now hanging on to the Lord to settle this matter in order to find out what really happened, pleading with him to take us from ignorance to knowledge."

Ranjith will attend a remembrance service for the victims at St. Sebastian’s church on Sunday, one of the places attacked in 2019.

"We are not interested in punishing anybody, but we are interested to know why somebody did that to these people," he said. "They have a right to know."
Central Asia
Oil-rich regions in Kazakhstan brace for floods, Siberian rivers burst in Russia (Reuters)
Reuters [4/19/2024 5:38 AM, Tamara Vaal, 11975K, Negative]
Kazakhstan braced on Friday for levels on the Ural River to rise sharply, something that could threaten two of its western regions and key oil infrastructure, while Russia grappled with floods in and near Siberia.

Both countries have in the last few weeks battled the worst floods in decades, which have forced tens of thousands people to evacuate.

Hundreds of people were building a 7-km (4.3-mile) barrier on Friday along the Ural River in the village of Yanvartsevo, in the West Kazakhstan region, about 20 km from the Russian border, which officials said would also protect the regional centre Oral.

The Ural goes through West Kazakhstan and the Atyrau region as it flows into the Caspian Sea, an area also crossed by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, which pumps 80% of Kazakhstan’s vital oil exports.

In the city of Atyrau, local newspaper Ak Zhayik reported many residents were leaving to wait out the peak of the floods in other cities, while some were building sandbag or plastic barriers around their houses.

Kazakh state oil pipeline company KazTransOil said it was building protective embankments at its facilities in the region, including the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, through which crude is pumped for further delivery, via Russia, to Germany’s Schwedt refinery.

In Russia, authorities in the Tyumen region in Siberia called for the urgent evacuation of five villages along the Ishim River, instructing people to grab only their documents, medicines and bedclothes.

In the Russian city of Kurgan, water levels in the Tobol river have risen to a record high, Kurgan regional governor Vadim Shumkov said on the Telegram messaging app, and parts of the city on the right bank of the river have been flooded.

More than 15,000 people have been evacuated in the Kurgan region, the TASS news agency cited local authorities as saying.
Debt to China fuels anxiety in Kyrgyzstan (VOA)
VOA [4/18/2024 4:47 PM, Staff, 761K, Neutral]
Previously deferred debt repayments to China are coming due in Kyrgyzstan, raising public concerns in the Central Asian country about deepening financial dependence on its powerful eastern neighbor.

The country’s total debt accumulated since independence in 1991 is estimated at about $6.2 billion, or 45% of GDP. That is below the debt ratios of some developed countries but problematic in a largely agrarian economy that has been struggling since a change of government in 2020.

About $1.7 billion of that is owed to the Export and Import Bank of China, which agreed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 to put off the repayment of $32 million.

But that is now due for repayment in addition to what would normally need to be repaid, and China is rejecting Bishkek’s proposals for further deferments or alternative repayment schemes.

"We have reached the peak of payments on external debt," Akylbek Japarov, the chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers said at a February 2 government meeting in Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second-largest city.

Japarov said that the servicing of the debt would require the Kyrgyz budget to set aside $400 million in 2024, $430 million in 2025 and $390 million in 2026.

"We are all in the same boat called Kyrgyzstan, so we need the work and contribution of everyone. We must work as one team," Japarov said at the meeting.

Loans funded upgrades, renovations

Kyrgyz government data show that the Chinese loans financed large infrastructure projects as part of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative. These included a modernization of the capital city’s central heating station, reconstruction of the North-South highway and renovations of the country’s electrical grid.

The loans were to be repaid over 20 years and yield interest at 2 percent a year, the data show.

Faced with a contracting economy, the Kyrgyz government has floated a variety of innovative ideas to manage the debt, including an appeal in November 2020 for private citizens to contribute to a special bank account that would be dedicated to servicing the debt.

As of August 2023, an amount equal to $358,000 had accumulated in the account, government data show.

In 2021, the government considered transferring control over some lucrative mining assets to China as a form of debt repayment but backed off for fear of public protests.

China reportedly rejected the idea in any case but agreed to the $32 million deferral instead.

China rejects alternate plans

As loan repayment deadlines approach in 2024, the public debate has again focused on ways to reduce the burden of repayments.

Kyrgyz officials proposed to China last year that it swap some of its debt for green initiatives; instead of repaying the Chinese loans, Kyrgyzstan would direct the funds to reducing CO2 emissions or investing in renewable energy projects.

China reportedly rebuffed the proposals.

At a news briefing in March 2023, a reporter asked Chinese Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Du Dewen about the possibility of China restructuring Kyrgyz loans.

"We are not the only ones that decide," the ambassador replied. "China must observe international norms. All these issues can be discussed in the spirit of friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation to find some form of solution."

The lack of progress on restructuring has been stoking public fears about what China will do if Kyrgyzstan fails to repay its debt.

In June 2022, Japarov warned that China’s Export and Import Bank could seize control over some key assets such as the Bishkek central heating station and the North-South highway if Kyrgyzstan defaults.

A Bishkek-based expert on China, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely about China, told VOA the issue of debt repayment has become a politically sensitive matter.

"The problem is that we don’t know what China’s long-term strategic goals [for Central Asia] are," said the expert. "China says that it wants peace in the region, and it emphasizes the importance of strategic collaboration [with Central Asian countries], but many ordinary people do not trust Beijing."

The expert added that anti-Chinese sentiments have been on the rise in Kyrgyzstan. In 2019 and 2020, Kyrgyzstan witnessed a series of protests directed against Chinese investments in Kyrgyzstan.

The Bishkek-based expert said that that Kyrgyzstan’s financial dependence on China has prompted the government to back Chinese diplomacy in international affairs.

A Chinese government news release issued in May 2023 said that Kyrgyzstan "firmly supports China’s unswerving positions on issues related to Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and other core interests, and supports the Global Security Initiative and the Global Development Initiative proposed by China."

‘We don’t need to worry’

Public sensitivities over Kyrgyzstan’s growing financial dependence on China have prompted Kyrgyz officials to act.

In July 2022, under pressure from Parliament, the Cabinet of Ministers adopted a debt ceiling that states the government must avoid a situation in which the country would owe 45% of its external debt to a single creditor.

In February, Kyrgyz MP Balbak Tulobaev called on the government to fully repay the external debt, including the Chinese loans, using Kyrgyzstan’s gold reserves. The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, which oversees the gold reserves, dismissed the suggestion as impractical.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov sought to reassure the public in an April 13 interview with the state news agency Kabar.

"Let’s forget about the topic of external debt," he was quoted as saying. "Even if our external debt will increase to $10-$15 billion, we don’t need to worry."

Sadyr Japarov added that "as long as there will be peace and stability in our country, we will repay [loans] without difficulty."
An ISIS Terror Group Draws Half Its Recruits From Tiny Tajikistan (New York Times)
New York Times [4/18/2024 4:14 PM, Neil MacFarquhar and Eric Schmitt, 831K, Neutral]
The mother of one of the suspects in the bloody attack on a concert hall near Moscow last month wept as she talked about her son.

How, she wondered, did he go from the bumpy, dirt roads of their village in Tajikistan, in Central Asia, to sitting, bruised and battered, in a Russian courtroom accused of terrorism? Even though he spent five years in Tajik prisons as a teenager, she said he never exhibited signs of violent extremism.

“We need to understand — who is recruiting young Tajiks, why do they want to highlight us as a nation of terrorists?” said the mother, Muyassar Zargarova.

Many governments and terrorism experts are asking the same question.

Tajik adherents of the Islamic State — especially within its affiliate in Afghanistan known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (I.S.K.P.), or ISIS-K — have taken increasingly high-profile roles in a string of recent terrorist attacks. Over the last year alone, Tajiks have been involved in assaults in Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as foiled plots in Europe. ISIS-K is believed to have several thousand soldiers, with Tajiks constituting more than half, experts said.

“They have become key to I.S.K.P.’s externally focused campaign as it seeks to gain attention and more recruits,” said Edward Lemon, an international relations professor at Texas A&M University who specializes in Russia, Tajikistan and terrorism.

Analysts say a kind of double whammy leaves Tajiks vulnerable to recruitment. An increasingly authoritarian former Soviet republic, Tajikistan ranks among the world’s poorest countries, which fuels discontent and drives millions of migrant laborers to seek better lives abroad. In a country of 10 million people, a majority of working men, estimated at more than two million, seek employment abroad at any given time.

And most migrants end up in Russia, where rampant discrimination, low wages, poor prospects and isolation make some susceptible to jihadist recruiters. Officially, about 1.3 million Tajik laborers are in Russia, although experts believe hundreds of thousands of others work there illegally.

“The new Tajik generation has lost all belief in the future,” said Muhiddin Kabiri, the exiled leader of the country’s Islamic Renaissance Party, a moderate opposition group that was abruptly outlawed as “extremist” in 2015. “There are only two choices: a secular dictatorship and, as an alternative, the Islamic State or other radical Islamic groups.”

As many as 2,000 Tajiks flocked to the physical caliphate established by the Islamic State in parts of Syria and Iraq from 2014 to 2019. With the caliphate dismantled but not eradicated — and with branches from Africa through the Middle East to Central Asia — ISIS-K has revived some of the would-be state’s global ambitions.

Recruitment of foot soldiers is focused online, where ISIS-K maintains an extensive media operation in Arabic, English, Russian and other languages. Russia is a frequent target. Many online testimonials from Tajiks imply that Muslim men who avoid fighting with ISIS are not really men.

Asfandyar Mir, a senior counterterrorism specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, highlighted the kind of audio message intended to incite Tajik migrant workers in Russia. A commander who has since been killed, using the nom de guerre Furkan Falistini, speaks directly to laborers there: “When the Russian police see you on the streets, Tajiks hide their eyes, hoping the police do not see them,” he says in the video. “You should look at them so that they are scared of you. You start killing them, and God will remedy your fears.”

Days after Russia charged four migrant laborers from Tajikistan with the concert hall attack that killed 145 people, ISIS-K launched an online Tajik-language magazine, the Voice of Khorasan. Its rollout, days after the first Turkish edition, appeared to underscore the group’s widening aspirations, noted Lucas Webber, a researcher who tracks the Islamic State’s presence online.

While the magazine mentioned the Islamic State’s longstanding hostility toward Russia, the main story lambasted the 30-year, iron-fisted rule of Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon.

“Rahmonov the Devil was the first to start eradicating Islam under the guise of being a Muslim,” the article said. The president changed his surname to the more Tajik-sounding Rahmon in 2007, but the Islamic State uses the old one, not least to highlight his close ties with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.

After the Tajik suspects in the concert hall attack appeared in a Russian courtroom bearing wounds from an apparent torture, one online poster said, “Broadcasting videos of prisoners being tortured by you has increased the thirst of thousands of brothers for your blood.”

Another post showed what appeared to be a man in military fatigues staring at television screens that showed London, Paris, Rome and Madrid. “After Moscow … Who is the next?!” the English text read.

There is no single formula for radicalization, experts say, but for some young Tajik migrants, personal grievances outweigh geopolitical considerations.

Tajikistan’s problems are rooted in a vicious civil war that raged for five years, starting in 1992, after it won independence from the Soviet Union. Mr. Rahmon, the former head of a collective farm who became president in 1994, signed a peace agreement with the opposition that guaranteed representation.

Initially, some criticism of government corruption and nepotism was allowed, and the Islamic Renaissance Party held a couple of Parliament seats. But when the party was declared a terrorist organization, opposition figures were killed, jailed or driven into exile. Tajikistan holds at least 1,000 political prisoners, according to Mr. Kabiri, the party’s exiled head.

Mr. Rahmon, 71, was born in the Soviet Union two days before Mr. Putin, and they share autocratic impulses. The Kremlin has long shored up Mr. Rahmon’s rule by stationing an estimated 7,000 troops in Tajikistan, a rare large deployment outside Russia.

The more ISIS ties Rahmon to Putin, “the more it looks like he is hitching his wagon to Russia, the less legitimate his regime seems and the more likely they are to increase their popularity among Tajiks,” said Steve Swerdlow, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California and a veteran human rights researcher in Central Asia.

Mr. Rahmon pushed through a constitutional referendum in 2016 allowing him to remain president for life. News releases on the presidential website refer to him as “the Founder of Peace and National Unity.” His oldest son, Rustam Emomali, 36, chairman of the National Assembly and the mayor of Dushanbe, the capital, is expected to succeed his father.

Mr. Rahmon wages a rigorous campaign against public signs of piety. People with beards or hijabs are subject to random harassment, with beards sometimes forcibly shaved in public or hijabs torn off. A powerful Committee on Religion, Regulation of Traditions, Celebrations and Ceremonies oversees every facet of worship, including building mosques and printing books.

“They have this very tight control over official Islam, and anything that exists beyond that is deemed extremist, dangerous,” said Mr. Lemon, the professor at Texas A&M.

Given the violence fomented by jihadists globally, Tajikistan’s government has reasons for concern, Mr. Swerdlow noted. But harsh measures can feed the very extremism that they are intended to curtail.

Echoing Soviet positions, Mr. Rahmon blames extremism solely on outside influences. In a speech last month, he said Tajiks enjoyed freedom of religion, while radical ideas originated from “dubious” religious schools abroad or foreign intelligence services.

“These actions were plotted by malicious groups and special services of some countries, and they take advantage of the lack of education, inexperience and ignorance of some of our youth,” the president said. More than 1,000 Tajik militants had died in foreign armed conflicts, he said, with thousands more missing.

In terms of religious freedom, the United States has repeatedly designated Tajikistan a “country of particular concern.” Officials at the Defense and State Departments declined requests for interviews about extremism linked to Tajikistan.

The State Department issued a brief statement saying it worked with Tajikistan and other Central Asian countries to strengthen law enforcement and degrade terrorist groups. One former senior Tajik police officer, trained in counterextremism in the United States, famously became the overall military commander for the Islamic State’s caliphate around 2016 before he died.

After the terrorist attack outside Moscow, Russia inaugurated sweeping expulsions.

In Tajikistan, the mothers of three suspects listed the problems their sons typically faced in Russia: Salaries too low to pay rent or to afford the permits needed to drive a taxi, for example.

“Let them answer who bought the weapons, who gave them their equipment,” Ms. Zargarova said. “My son didn’t have money for a gun.”
3 Reasons This Country Is a Top ISIS Recruiting Ground (New York Times)
New York Times [4/18/2024 4:14 PM, Neil Macfarquhar, 831K, Neutral]
In the past year, jihadists from Tajikistan have been involved in an unusually high number of terrorist attacks or foiled plots linked to the Islamic State.

The suspects in the storming of a concert hall near Moscow last month were Tajiks. Before that, Tajiks staged bloody assaults in Iran and Turkey, while several schemes in Europe said to involve Tajiks were thwarted.

Hundreds of men from Tajikistan — a small, impoverished country in Central Asia controlled by an authoritarian president — have joined an affiliate of the Islamic State in Afghanistan known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K, analysts say.

They point to three main reasons Tajiks are vulnerable to recruitment.

Poverty Fuels Discontent

Tajikistan ranks among the world’s poorest countries, which drives millions of workers to seek better lives elsewhere. In a country of 10 million people, a majority of working men, estimated at more than two million, toil abroad at any given time.

Most migrants end up in Russia, where rampant discrimination, low wages, poor prospects and isolation make some susceptible to jihadist recruiters. The mothers of the suspects in the concert hall attack, for example, said their sons faced problems in Russia such as earning salaries too low to pay rent or to afford the myriad permits needed to drive a taxi.

A Dictator’s Iron Rule

The country was embroiled in a brutal civil war from 1992 to 1997. President Emomali Rahmon, 71, has ruled Tajikistan since 1994 and extended his term for life.

The civil war ended with an agreement to allow some representation for opposition groups, including the moderate Islamic Renaissance Party. But that group was declared an extremist organization in 2015, and opposition leaders were killed, jailed or driven into exile.

As Tajikistan has become an increasingly authoritarian state, the government has exerted ever tighter control over how Islam is practiced, also pushing some Tajiks to extremist views.

No Religious Freedom

Curbs on religious freedom include waging a rigorous campaign against public signs of piety. Beards are sometimes forcibly shaved in public or hijabs torn off. A powerful Committee on Religion, Regulation of Traditions, Celebrations and Ceremonies oversees every facet of worship, including building mosques and printing books. Men under 18 and women are banned from praying in mosques, while group religious instruction at home is also forbidden.

The combination of poverty, authoritarian rule and lack of religious freedom has created a fertile environment for a calculated online recruitment campaign targeting Tajik men. That effort glorifies the exploits of those killed fighting for ISIS-K, which has adopted the ambitions of the Islamic State to battle the West.
Soldiers from Russia and Tajikistan stage counter-terrorist drills (Reuters)
Reuters [4/18/2024 11:33 AM, Mark Trevelyan, 5239K, Negative]
Troops from Russia and Tajikistan on Thursday completed several days of joint exercises in the Central Asian country to rehearse scenarios for cross-border incursions by militants or illegal armed groups.

Tajikistan shares a long border with Afghanistan, which is home to a branch of Islamic State. The militant group claimed responsibility for an attack that killed at least 144 people at a concert hall just outside Moscow last month.

The Russian Defence Ministry released video of the drills, in which attack helicopters, drones, multiple launch rocket systems, howitzers and tanks were deployed in desert and mountain terrain against the mock enemy.

It said the objectives included "destroying terrorist gangs", and the exercises incorporated lessons learned by Russia’s military from the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Tajikistan are both members of a security alliance of former Soviet states, and Russia maintains a military base in the country.

The exercises demonstrated the importance both sides attach to joint military cooperation, even as last month’s concert attack - the deadliest in Russia for 20 years - has threatened to strain their relations.

Nearly all the suspects so far arrested by Russia are nationals of Tajikistan, although Moscow, without providing evidence, has said it believes Ukrainian special forces were ultimately behind the massacre. Kyiv has strongly denied that.

President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia, which has several million workers from Central Asian countries including Tajikistan, needs to review its handling of immigration. Tajikistan has rejected a claim by a top Russian security official that Ukraine’s embassy in the Tajik capital was recruiting mercenaries to fight against Russia.
Tajikistan striving to convince the world that it can contain terrorism (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [4/18/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
Tajikistan, a Central Asian state with limited means, is trying to project a get-tough-on-terror image following the late March attack at a Moscow concert venue, in which Tajik militants are accused of killing over 140 people. But the government steps being taken appear to address the symptoms of the domestic challenge, not the disease.

The March 22 terror tragedy prompted a wave of retribution against Tajik citizens in Russia and placed President Imomali Rahmon’s regime in an unwelcome spotlight, reminding the world of its numerous flaws in governance. Rahmon’s damage-control efforts have included a mixture of denial and a “round-up-the-usual suspects” approach that does not address the underlying causes of economic and social discontent fueling the spread radical Islamic ideas in the country.

Rahmon’s reflexive reaction to the involvement of Tajik nationals in the terror attack was to deflect. In a March 24 phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the Tajik president downplayed the notion that conditions inside Central Asia’s poorest nation had any connection to the events in Moscow. “Terrorists have no nationality, no homeland and no religion,” Rahmon was quoted as telling Putin.

Underscoring the Tajik response, reports circulated April 4 that China will assist Tajik authorities in the implementation of the second phase of the Safe City project, which entails saturating the Tajik capital Dushanbe with surveillance cameras. The first phase of the project resulted in the installation of over 800 security cameras across the city. The second phase will enhance surveillance capabilities in Dushanbe, Chinese television channel CGTN reported, and will expand the project to other Tajik urban centers.

Meanwhile, the official Tajik news agency, Khovar, reported April 17 that Interior Ministry officials were conducting an awareness campaign in several Dushanbe districts, including Firdavsi, Sino and Shokhmansur. The report indicated that authorities sought to compel allegiance to the government, and were not interested in learning about on-the-ground conditions. “The public was called to patriotism, self-knowledge and reverence for the highest national values,” according to the Khovar report.

Rahmon’s regime is also using the clampdown as cover for questionable activities to quash critical voices abroad. Human Rights Watch reported April 16 that Tajik dissidents affiliated with a democracy-oriented political movement, Group 24, have “in recent months disappeared, or have been arrested and threatened with extradition to Tajikistan.” Group 24 was designated as a terrorist organization and banned in Tajikistan in 2014. HRW called on EU states and Turkey to refrain from sending the opposition activists back to Tajikistan.

In addition, RFE/RL’s Radio Ozodi reported April 16 that the Tajik parliament earlier had ratified an agreement with Turkey paving the way for the potential purchase of Turkish drones and other military equipment. According to the agreement, the text of which was reviewed by Ozodi reporters, Turkey will allocate roughly $1.5 million for the Tajik purchase of drones and other military items over a five-year period. Tajikistan will have the ability to purchase additional equipment at the government’s own expense.
Central Asia: Welcome to the ‘opportunity zone’ (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [4/18/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
The Great Game is playing out once again in Central Asia, but it is getting a new name and adopting a different set of rules. Economics, not politics, is defining the terms of the current superpower competition for regional influence, according to a report prepared by a Kazakh research institute.

There is a key difference governing the global rivalries in Central Asia in the 19th and 21st centuries: these days, regional states, not outsiders, wield the more influence over potential outcomes, according to the report, titled Pursuing Multi-Vectorism Through Business Diplomacy: The Path for Central Asia. The report was published by the Talap Center for Applied Research.

“The region, previously the theater of the Great Game in the confrontation of superpowers, is now trying to become an opportunity zone,” the report states.

Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine in 2022, and the imposition of Western sanctions to punish Russian aggression, changed Central Asia’s geopolitical dynamics by reanimating US and European Union interest in the region. By extension, Russia’s actions encouraged the diversification of trade and investment, changing East-West trade patterns connecting China and Europe. Sanctions have diminished the utility of the Northern Corridor via the trans-Siberian railway, while providing impetus for the growth of the Middle Corridor via Central Asia.

These changes have shifted Central Asia’s center of geo-economic gravity. China has eclipsed Russia as the region’s largest trade partner, while the overall trend is toward diversification of trade partners. The West’s share of Central Asian trade under the present dynamic is set to keep rising.

“The trade and investment dynamics in the region show a significant shift of diversification with non-traditional markets of Europe, North America, South Asia, and the Middle East since 2022,” the Talap report notes. “This has become possible due to a traditional, multi-vector policy for the region, which, under the stress of escalating conflicts, was transformed into a policy of emphatic non-alignment – a firm rejection of any involvement in the conflict.”

The report notes that the contacts between the European Union and Central Asian states have “have gained a special dynamism” since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. It also notes that public opinion in the region indicates that a majority of regional residents do not want to get dragged into the confrontation between the West and Russia, which is supported by China.

The prevailing circumstances have forced Central Asian states to “balance a genuine interest in developing their ties with the Western world while being surrounded by Iran, Afghanistan, China, and Russia, countries with which the West has strained and even tense relations,” the report says.

Maximizing economic multi-vectorism will require some work by Central Asian governments to enhance the predictability of the regional business climate. Vaguely defined trade rules and property rights, along with the unreliability of regional judicial systems, remain big impediments to Western investment. The lack of mechanisms to enforce contracts or resolve corporate disputes also constitutes an investment barrier. In addition to bolstering the independence of the judicial system, the Talap report recommends reforms to regional tax codes to foster more “equitable” business environments.

“The investment climate in Central Asia reflects a difficult balance between the determination of governments to take advantage of growing interest in the region and the inertia of institutional barriers,” the report states. “To take advantage of these opportunities, the countries of the region have to address existing institutional and regulatory barriers for both domestic and international companies and investors, strengthen the rule of law, enforce fair and open competition, implement business friendly tax regulations, and align trade, customs and logistical standards.”
Indo-Pacific
Rainstorms Kill More Than 130 Across Afghanistan and Pakistan (New York Times)
New York Times [4/18/2024 4:14 PM, Zia ur-Rehman and Christina Goldbaum, 831K, Negative]
A deluge of unseasonably heavy rains has lashed Pakistan and Afghanistan in recent days, killing more than 130 people across both countries, with the authorities forecasting more flooding and rainfall, and some experts pointing to climate change as the cause.

In Afghanistan, at least 70 people have been killed in flash floods and other weather-related incidents, while more than 2,600 homes have been destroyed or damaged, according to Mullah Janan Sayeq, a spokesman for the Ministry of Disaster Management. At least 62 people have died in the storms in neighboring Pakistan, which has been hammered by rainfall at nearly twice the average rate for this time of year, according to Pakistani officials.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, the Pakistani region bordering Afghanistan, appears to be the hardest hit. Flash floods and landslides caused by torrential rains have damaged homes and destroyed infrastructure. Photos and videos from the province show roads turned into raging rivers, and homes and bridges being swept away.

“The rains have caused significant damage,” Bilal Faizi, spokesperson for the provincial disaster management authority, said in a phone interview. He added that at least 33 people had died in the province over the past four days, and 336 houses had been destroyed.

Around midnight on Monday in Swat Valley, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Akbar Zada woke up to a thunderous crash after a boulder tumbled down a nearby mountain in the rain and destroyed a room of his home where two of his sons were sleeping. The boys, 14 and 16, were both killed.

“The rain has been relentless these past years, and now it’s taken my sons,” Mr. Zada said in a phone interview.

The deluge in Afghanistan and Pakistan began at the same time that rainstorms swept the Gulf, battering the United Arab Emirates and Oman with record-setting rainfall that killed at least 20 people in both countries. The storms in the United Arab Emirates constituted the largest rainfall event in the region in 75 years.

In Pakistan, the recent flooding comes just over two years after a devastating monsoon season battered the country in 2022, killing over 1,700 people and affecting about 33 million more. That flooding destroyed millions of acres of crops, caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage and started an international conversation about the environmental costs of global warming that poorer countries disproportionately shoulder.

The rainstorms this week offered more grim reminders of those costs. In Swat Valley, a popular tourist destination, landslides and washed-out roads caused by the heavy rains stranded thousands, mostly tourists, according to Amjad Ali Khan, a local member of Parliament who oversaw rescue efforts. At least 15 landslides have been reported in the area.

“To mitigate future climate-change disasters, the provincial government has plans to build retention dams to manage water flow and control deforestation to prevent soil erosion,” Dr. Khan said.

Heavy rains also triggered devastating flash floods that tore through Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, particularly its coastal region, causing widespread damage in Gwadar, a seaside city.

Last month, Gwadar received an exceptional amount of rainfall exceeding seven inches in less than 48 hours. Situated in an arid region of southern Pakistan, Gwadar had not experienced a deluge of that magnitude in recent memory, and the rainfall submerged most buildings in the city.

On Thursday, people in Pakistan were bracing for more heavy rain as the authorities issued another flood warning for early next week. Officials blamed unseasonably fast-melting glaciers in several Khyber Pakhtunkhwa districts for the coming floods.

Those weather warnings also spurred concerns about the unseasonable rain affecting Pakistan’s wheat harvest, and stoked fears that the country’s monsoon season between June and September might also bring increased levels of devastation this year.

“This is exactly what we’ve been warning about,” said Muhammad Qasim, a professor of environmental science at the University of Swat. “Climate change is leading to more erratic weather patterns, with extreme events like heat waves, droughts and unpredictable monsoons becoming increasingly common.”
Twitter
Afghanistan
Abdul Qahar Balkhi
@QaharBalkhi
[4/19/2024 12:27 AM, 237K followers, 18 retweets, 160 likes]
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan extends its deepest condolences to the government and people of Pakistan, especially the bereaved families, for the loss of life and damages caused by the recent heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in Pakistan.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[4/18/2024 3:58 PM, 253.2K followers, 2 retweets, 18 likes]
Destructive wave of flash floods in Abghool valley, Zamindawar village, Kajaki district, Helmand province. According to locals at least 12 members of one family were killed.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[4/18/2024 11:55 AM, 253.2K followers, 17 retweets, 34 likes]
Reality fails to match the Taliban’s rhetoric. Taliban are claiming that they are combating drug cultivation and smuggling, however their actions reveal a different reality. Despite a supposed ban, high-ranking leaders of the group have been engaged in large scale of opium purchases, the manipulation of prices by the spraying of crops with damaging chemicals. Reports expose a senior brutal Taliban leader, Mullah Fazil’s involvement in drug smuggling, supported by Taliban’s administration resources. Corruption runs rampant across the country with officials complicit in drug trafficking. Agenda of the Taliban seems to be obscured by deceitful tactics, casting doubt on their true intentions, which is largely self interest.

Bilal Sarwary
@bsarwary
[4/18/2024 11:28 AM, 253.2K followers, 28 retweets, 69 likes]
Taliban on the brink of internal opposition and fragmentation! Taliban fought against the former republic for 20 years always claimed that are a united front, fighting in complete unity. Among them, the province of Maidan Wardak provided one of largest number of young fighters. Wardaki Taliban carried out deadly attacks on security forces and ISAF forces in Wardak, as well as large attacks and bombings in Kabul and other provinces. The young Taliban of Wardak used to fight four days a week while studying in universities in Kabul and three days on the front lines. Now, internal Taliban sources claim that a big number of Taliban of Maidan Wardak and Taliban from Eastern Afghanistan have defected to Daesh. Daesh has infiltrated their ranks, leading to their expulsion under the guise of a “purification commission”. Many critics of this commission say that the plan is to remove other Taliban members from their ranks, except those from Helmand and Kandahar. Allegations of Wardak and Eastern Afghanistan’s Taliban factions joining forces with ISIS underscore the intelligence and also governance weaknesses of the Taliban. Only time will reveal the outcome……
Pakistan
The President of Pakistan
@PresOfPakistan
[4/18/2024 9:37 AM, 733.9K followers, 720 retweets, 904 likes]
President Asif Ali Zardari addressing the Joint Session of the Parliament at the beginning of the Parliamentary year, in Islamabad.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan
@ForeignOfficePk
[4/18/2024 1:18 PM, 476.1K followers, 44 retweets, 130 likes]
The U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Donald Blome called on Foreign Minister @MIshaqDar50 today. They discussed various aspects of Pakistan-US relations and recent global and regional developments.

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[4/18/2024 11:47 AM, 8.4M followers, 1.3K retweets, 5.1K likes]
Former Prime Minister @ImranKhanPTI clarified that Saudi leader Muhammad bin Salman had no role in a conspiracy against his government. He told his party colleagues in jail today that MBS helped Pakistan many times during his tenure and he is very thankful to him.

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[4/19/2024 2:50 AM, 73.3K followers, 4 retweets, 14 likes]
Pakistan’s @ForeignOfficePk says it would comment on the Israeli attack on Iran as and when there would be more details, “Naturally concerned about the situation in the region”, calls the attack on Iran’s diplomatic premises by Israel as reckless.

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[4/19/2024 2:37 AM, 73.3K followers, 18 likes]
Pakistan regrets the US Decision to Veto Palestine’s admittance at the UN. “Believe time has come for the admission of Palestine at the UN”, says @ForeignOfficePk spox in her weekly briefing.

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[4/19/2024 12:09 AM, 73.3K followers, 6 retweets, 24 likes]
With the Israeli attempted Attack on Iran earlier today, question is, what happens to Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to Pakistan which is less than 72 hours away now and is scheduled to begin from Islamabad on the 22nd of April. #Iran #Israel #Pakistan

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[4/18/2024 7:50 AM, 73.3K followers, 31 retweets, 127 likes]
The national assembly of Pakistan had scenes of the National Zoo of Pakistan as President Asif Ali Zardari addressed the joint sitting of the parliament which also had diplomats in attendance, with PTI members using whistles, chants and hoots to disrupt. #Pakistan
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/19/2024 2:52 AM, 97.3M followers, 8.1K retweets, 40K likes]
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections commence today! As 102 seats across 21 States and UTs go to the polls, I urge all those voting in these seats to exercise their franchise in record numbers. I particularly call upon the young and first time voters to vote in large numbers. After all, every vote counts and every voice matters!

Rajnath Singh
@rajnathsingh
[4/18/2024 11:51 PM, 24.1M followers, 679 retweets, 1.5K likes]
Polling for the First Phase of the Lok Sabha polls has started. I appeal to all the voters to come out in large numbers and strengthen India’s democracy by exercising their voting rights.

Rajnath Singh
@rajnathsingh
[4/18/2024 11:46 AM, 24.1M followers, 748 retweets, 1.9K likes]
Addressed public meetings at Kollam, Mavelikkara and Pathanamthitta in Kerala today. The NDA aims for a double-digit victory in Kerala, paving the way to form an absolute majority government with 400 seats. Kerala’s rich cultural heritage fosters open-mindedness and progressive thinking among its people, contrasting with the outdated ideologies of the Congress and LDF. While the Congress and Left parties clash in Kerala, they conveniently align in Delhi, collaborating to obscure the truth and deceive the public. Prime Minister Shri @narendramodi has achieved a historic milestone by lifting 25 crore people out of poverty for the first time in independent India.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[4/19/2024 1:42 AM, 3.1M followers, 393 retweets, 2.7K likes]
Today marks the beginning of the biggest festival of democracy the world has seen. The first phase of polls decide 102 seats in 21 Indian States. Confident that the country will elect a leadership that is strong and decisive. One that has a vision for the future. One that works 24x7 for growth and development. On this day, urge all, especially the first time voters to exercise their franchise. Your vote is precious and it will shape the future of the nation.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[4/18/2024 4:39 AM, 3.1M followers, 332 retweets, 3K likes]
Happy to meet the leadership of Bharat Stree Shakti. Appreciated their thoughts on projecting India’s socio-economic developments at the international level.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[4/18/2024 4:26 AM, 3.1M followers, 185 retweets, 1.3K likes]
Glad to receive Special Representative Roza Otunbayeva, Head of UNAMA this morning. Exchanged views on the current situation in Afghanistan. Underlined that India has provided wheat, medicines, pesticides and school supplies. Appreciate the role of UN agencies as partners in these endeavors. @UNAMAnews

Hamid Mir
@HamidMirPAK
[4/18/2024 11:55 PM, 8.4M followers, 15 retweets, 108 likes]
A map of Akhand Bharat in India’s new Parliament is providing political strength not only to @BJP4India but also strengthening anti-India forces from Pakistan to Bangladesh. This one map will ultimately isolate India within South Asia. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/13/india/india-akhand-bharat-map-parliament-intl-hnk/index.html
NSB
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bangladesh
@BDMOFA
[4/19/2024 12:26 AM, 35.6K followers, 2 retweets, 18 likes]
FS met the Foreign Minister of Bhutan this morning in Thimphu & they discussed on issues of mutual interests including the implementation of the MoUs signed during the recent visit of HM the King of Bhutan to Bangladesh, boosting trade &investment, connectivity & people to people contact.

Awami League
@albd1971
[4/18/2024 11:36 AM, 637.2K followers, 23 retweets, 59 likes]
HPM #SheikhHasina will inaugurate the UN Climate Adaptation Conference National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Expo 2024 in Dhaka which will be held from from April 22 to 25. @UNFCCC Executive Secretary @SimonStiell will be present at the #NAPExpo. https://unb.com.bd/category/Environment/pm-hasina-to-inaugurate-nap-expo-on-april-22-environment-minister/134043

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[4/19/2024 2:12 AM, 5.2K followers, 1 like]
According to Washington-based anti-corruption watchdog Global Financial Integrity, from 2004 to 2013, Bangladesh lost an average of $5.5 billion annually through illicit outflows. #Bangladesh also does not receive all of its export receipts, as billions of dollars are siphoned off annually through trade misinvoicing. https://voanews.com/a/sputtering-economy-threatens-progress-in-bangladesh-/7575897.html

Sabria Chowdhury Balland
@sabriaballand
[4/18/2024 12:21 PM, 5.2K followers]
A movement against Indian products is gathering steam in #Bangladesh for allegedly helping Sheikh Hasina become the Prime Minister for a fourth consecutive term against the wishes of the people. But if the boycott intensifies instead of dissipating, China will be laughing all the way to the bank. The way forward for India is to stop playing favourites and engage with the opposition parties. https://moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/after-maldives-bangladeshs-india-out-campaign-new-delhi-must-stop-china-taking-advantage-12665511.html

MFA SriLanka
@MFA_SriLanka
[4/18/2024 6:21 AM, 38.1K followers, 7 retweets, 19 likes]
Sri Lankans rescued from cyber scam trafficking in Myanmar safely repatriated to Sri Lanka More: https://mfa.gov.lk/myanmar/

Shehan Semasinghe
@ShehanSema
[4/18/2024 9:27 PM, 13.5K followers, 3 retweets, 24 likes]
I participated in the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable along with Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. This collective initiative led by the IMF, World Bank and G20 would assist countries to resolve debt issues faster, which was a common request from creditor and debtor countries across the globe. It was also a pleasure to meet with the IMF Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva at this meeting.

Shehan Semasinghe
@ShehanSema
[4/18/2024 9:04 PM, 13.5K followers, 2 retweets, 13 likes]
Had an excellent bilateral engagement with Mr. Robert Kaproth, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury on Sri Lanka’s recent economic developments, progress of debt restructuring, strengthening tax administration and ongoing governance reforms. Mr. Kaproth assured the fullest support for Sri Lanka on all fronts.

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[4/19/2024 12:49 AM, 356.8K followers, 5 retweets, 11 likes]
1/ Port City Commission has reiterated it has the power (under SEZ law) to bypass @ParliamentLK to make legislation on taxes and duties. Blames COPF for not letting them declare hundreds of items including fridges, furniture and TV etc duty free up to USD 5,000/yr for #SriLanka…

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[4/19/2024 12:49 AM, 356.8K followers, 2 likes]
2/ … citizens even if overseas visit is less than 24 hours. This is completely wrong and I am disappointed the commission is overruling the position of the AG in favor of their private lawyers. If the position of Mr Aluvihare is true why did the President as Min was Finance…

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[4/19/2024 12:49 AM, 356.8K followers, 2 likes]
3/ … rescind the duty free items and allowance gazette saying the same has to be approved by Parliament. My entire COPF committee was unanimous in the decision that power of Parliament under Article 148 (control of public finance is with the legislature and cannot be delegated…

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[4/19/2024 12:49 AM, 356.8K followers, 3 likes]
4/ … to the Port City Commission. The Act is crystal clear and in any case the Constitution is supreme law. Please note I am a supporter of the @PortCityColombo and want it to succeed. Not only it has to be perceived as a #SriLanka project it has to be! And that cannot happen …

Harsha de Silva
@HarshadeSilvaMP
[4/19/2024 12:49 AM, 356.8K followers, 3 likes]
5/ … if the commission takes the position it authority over Parliament to impose duties, taxes and levies. It simply does not. My advise to the commission is best to work within the Constitution rather than outside. The position taken today is not helpful.
Central Asia
UNODC Central Asia
@UNODC_ROCA
[4/19/2024 1:11 AM, 2.4K followers, 1 retweet, 4 likes]
Criminal justice practitioners from Central Asian countries strengthen their skills on investigation of #cybercrime cases in a 4-day regional training, co-organized by UNODC ROCA, #CASC Network & @CARICC_2018 with thanks to @StateINL support

UNODC Central Asia
@UNODC_ROCA
[4/18/2024 7:16 AM, 2.4K followers, 4 retweets, 8 likes]
Our Annual Report 2023 is out! We have been driving progress in good governance, justice, health & security in Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turmenistan Uzbekistan. Together with our partners, we are advancing @UN goals for a better world. Dive into our work in the region: https://shorturl.at/rPX26 @MittalAshita @UNODC

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[4/18/2024 7:56 AM, 28.9K followers, 11 retweets, 23 likes]
An alarming development - Mirziyoyev staked his reputation on eradicating forced labour from the cottonfields and @UzbekForum work was key to documenting it and helping get rid of it - so why are its people being harassed in #Uzbekistan?

{End of Report}
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