epubdos : Afghanistan
SCA MORNING PRESS CLIPS
Prepared for the U.S. Department of State
Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
TO:
SCA & Staff
DATE:
Tuesday, April 16, 2024 6:30 AM ET

Afghanistan
Pentagon Reviews Events Before Attack That Killed 13 U.S. Troops in Kabul (New York Times)
New York Times [4/15/2024 4:14 PM, Eric Schmitt, 831K, Neutral]
A new Pentagon review of the events leading up to the bombing that killed 13 American service members at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, in August 2021, has reaffirmed earlier findings that U.S. troops could not have prevented the deadly violence.

The review’s conclusions focus on the final days and hours at Abbey Gate before the attack, which also killed as many as 170 civilians. The review provides new details about the Islamic State bomber who carried out the suicide mission, including how he slipped into the crowds trying to evacuate the capital’s airport just moments before detonating explosives.

Some Marines who were at the gate have said they identified the suspected bomber — who became known to investigators as “Bald Man in Black” — in the crowds hours before the attack but were twice denied permission by their superiors to shoot him. But the review, building on a previous investigation made public in February 2022, rejected those accusations.

The narrative of missed opportunities to avert tragedy has gained momentum over the past year among conservatives and has contributed to broader Republican criticisms of the Biden administration’s troop withdrawal and evacuation from Kabul in August 2021.

The bombing was a searing experience for the military after 20 years of war in Afghanistan. Thirteen flag-draped coffins were flown to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, and a succession of funerals were held across the country for the service members, most of them under the age of 25.

Military officials had stood by the conclusions of the earlier inquiry that a lone Islamic State suicide bomber carried out the attack and was not joined by accomplices firing into the crowd.

But under mounting political pressure to address disparities in the earlier review and the accounts of the Marines at the gate — which also included reports that the Islamic State had conducted a test run of the bombing — a team of Army and Marine Corps officers interviewed more than 50 people who were not interviewed the first time around.

One of the main issues was the identity of the bomber. Almost immediately after the attack, the Islamic State identified him as Abdul Rahman Al-Logari. U.S. and other Western intelligence analysts later pieced together evidence that led them to the same conclusion.

American officials at the time said that Mr. Logari was a former engineering student who was one of several thousand militants freed from at least two high-security prisons after the Taliban seized control of Kabul on Aug. 15, 2021. The Taliban emptied the facilities indiscriminately, releasing not only their own imprisoned members but also fighters from ISIS Khorasan or ISIS-K, the terrorist organization’s Afghanistan branch and the Taliban’s nemesis.

Mr. Logari was not unknown to the Americans. In 2017, the C.I.A. tipped off Indian intelligence agents that he was plotting a suicide bombing in New Delhi, U.S. officials said. Indian authorities foiled the attack and turned Mr. Logari over to the C.I.A., which sent him to Afghanistan to serve time at the Parwan prison at Bagram Air Base. He remained there until he was freed amid the chaos after Kabul fell.

At the airport, investigators said, the bomber detonated a 20-pound explosive, probably carried in a backpack or vest, spraying 5-millimeter ball bearings in a tremendous blast that was captured in grainy video images shown to Pentagon reporters.

All this was known to the Marine and Army officials as they started their supplemental review last September. But they were assigned to address the lingering questions.

On the day of the bombing, Marines at the gate were given intelligence to be on the lookout for a man with groomed hair, wearing loose clothes and carrying a black bag of explosives. The review team determined, after additional interviews and assessing security camera footage and other photographs of the chaotic scene, that the description was not specific enough to meaningfully narrow the search.

But Marines at the gate came forward later to say that at about 7 a.m., they saw an individual matching the suicide bomber’s description. The Marines said that the man had engaged in suspicious behavior and that they had sent urgent warnings to leaders asking for permission to shoot. Twice their request was denied, they said.

The review team concluded that the Marines had conflated the intelligence reports with an earlier spotting of a man wearing beige clothes and carrying a black bag. The team also reviewed a photo taken of the suspect from one of the sniper team’s cameras.

The man in question did not actually match the description, the review team concluded. He was bald, wore black clothes and was not carrying a black bag. Moreover, photographs taken of Mr. Logari when he was in American custody did not match the photographs of the suspect, even after facial recognition software was used.

“Al-Logari and ‘Bald Man in Black’ received the strongest negative result,” concluded a slide from the supplemental review team’s findings that was briefed to reporters.

Moreover, the review team concluded, Mr. Logari did not arrive at Abbey Gate on Aug. 26 until “immediately before” the attack, minimizing his chances of being detected by the Marines.

The review team went through a similar process to discount the sightings of specific individuals whom Marines had suspected of carrying out a dry run of the eventual attack.

Members of the review team did not challenge the motives or dedication of the Marines who raised the vexing questions. But in the end, the review team concluded, the Marines were mistaken.

As traumatic as the bombing was, perhaps it is not surprising that the recollections and conclusions of Marines and soldiers that day, however sincere, were not supported by subsequent inquiries.

The findings of the original Army-led investigation in February 2022 contradicted initial reports by senior U.S. commanders that militants had fired into the crowd of people at the airport seeking to flee the Afghan capital and had caused some of the casualties.

The accounts of what unfolded immediately after the attack — from the Pentagon and people on the ground — changed several times. Defense Department officials initially said that nearby fighters from Islamic State Khorasan began firing weapons. That turned out not to be true.

Some people near the scene said the Marines had shot indiscriminately into the crowd, apparently believing they were under fire. That, too, according to the accounting by the military’s Central Command, turned out not to be true, although investigators said that British and American forces had fired warning shots in the air.
U.S. military review disputes that Marines had Kabul bomber in sights (Washington Post)
Washington Post [4/15/2024 7:00 AM, Dan Lamothe, 6902K, Negative]
Marines who survived a devastating suicide bombing during the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan were mistaken in their belief that they had the attacker in their gun sights hours before the blast, a new military review determined, disputing allegations made before Congress and in the media.

The findings, released Monday after they were shared with the families of 13 service members killed in the August 2021 attack at the edge of Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, relied in part on facial recognition technology and interviews with the Marines and with others who were not questioned during a previous investigation conducted soon after the explosion. The new review found that the Marines, while diligently performing their jobs on a sniper team, conflated vetted intelligence reports with unverified “spot reports” made by service members on-site, leading to confusion.

“Over the past two years, some service members have claimed that they had the bomber in their sights, and they could have prevented the attack,” a member of the review team said, speaking to reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon. “But we now know that is not correct.”

The renewed scrutiny underscores how the bombing, which also killed about 170 Afghans and wounded 45 additional U.S. troops, continues to haunt survivors and the Biden administration.

Predicted for days, the attack was a traumatic nadir to the hastily arranged airlift that ferried 124,000 people to safety as Taliban fighters swept into Afghanistan’s capital and the U.S.-backed government fled, ending 20 years of war. For President Biden, the incident remains a low point in his time in office, with House Republicans, who continue to investigate the decision-making that precipitated it, having pledged to hold him and his administration accountable for the bloodshed.

The military’s supplemental review was ordered by Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, in September, more than a year after Marines who survived the bombing surfaced their contention that the Islamic State operative responsible for the attack could have been shot dead before he harmed anyone. The issue was first raised by Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews in an interview with The Washington Post near the first anniversary of the attack, and subsequently in testimony he delivered to the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

“To this day, we believe he was the suicide bomber,” Vargas-Andrews told lawmakers under oath last year. “Plain and simple, we were ignored. Our expertise was disregarded.”

Vargas-Andrews said in a phone interview that he appreciated the review team’s work and that, after a briefing last week, he agrees that the “bald man in black” — distinguishable because of his black headscarf and shaved head — was not the suicide bomber.

“I will say this: I think the investigation team did a really good job and were really thorough,” said Vargas-Andrews, who lost an arm and a leg in the explosion and underwent dozens of surgeries in the following year.

He added, though, that he still believes the Marines could have had the eventual bomber in their sights. They photographed numerous suspicious individuals, passing those images up their chain of command, but many of the photographs went missing, he said, including those of two other men the Marines requested permission to shoot.

“They straight-up told us in the briefing, ‘Hey, these photos don’t exist anywhere,’” he said.

A person familiar with the review team’s work, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, affirmed that many photographs captured by the sniper team — and other units — went missing in the chaotic last days of the evacuation. This person said there is no record of them requesting to shoot other potential bombers, but the review found that the snipers did request to shoot Taliban fighters who were abusing civilians, and were denied.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.), the Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, has said the allegations of the suicide bomber slipping away demonstrate the need for accountability. During a recent hearing, retired Gen. Mark A. Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told lawmakers that the “fundamental mistake” made by the Biden administration was the State Department’s failure to begin the evacuation before it was “too late.”

Review team members told reporters that the man the Marines thought was suspicious appeared about 7 a.m. at the airport’s Abbey Gate, prompting Vargas-Andrews’s sniper team — call sign Reaper 2 — to report suspicious activity up through their chain of command. In response, personnel in an operations center issued a warning known as a BOLO, short for “be on the lookout.”

“BOLO: Snipers at Abbey Gate identify individual in the crowd acting suspicious, clean shaved, bald head,” according to a message sent to service members that day and included in briefing slides shared with the media. “Individual is acting calm, not rushing towards the gate, but is instead sitting along the wall. The individual has a backpack and another clear bag that he has kept with him.”

About 8 a.m., Vargas-Andrews’s team radioed to request permission to shoot the man and eliminate the threat they believed he posed. The request was denied about 30 minutes later.

Vargas-Andrews told lawmakers that he then asked a senior commander to come to their security tower to observe the man they thought to be the bomber and that, when they asked again if they had permission to shoot, the commander responded, “I don’t know.” The man faded into the crowd about 10 a.m., the review team found.

In the briefing slides made available by the Pentagon, the review team shared an image of the man and said he did not match numerous photographs of the suicide bomber, a member of the Islamic State’s branch in Afghanistan whom the militants later identified as Abdul Rahman al-Logari.

The bomber, a review team official said, did not arrive at Abbey Gate until just before the explosion. The official declined to say how the military review determined that, saying some aspects of the matter remain classified. Logari was among the thousands of militants freed by Taliban fighters a few weeks earlier as they emptied Afghan government prisons on their march to Kabul, a review team member said.

The review team interviewed 52 people, including Vargas-Andrews and a few dozen others who were wounded in the explosion and unable to speak to investigators in fall 2021. Eighteen people who were interviewed in the initial investigation were consulted again, review team members said.

The review team addressed several other issues, substantiating testimony from rank-and-file troops who observed Taliban fighters outside the airport abusing and killing civilians attempting to flee the country. The militants were posted there after a top U.S. commander, Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, negotiated an uneasy agreement with the group’s leaders that called for U.S. troops to safeguard the airport and its perimeter while the Taliban would provide security outside.

The review team credited U.S. troops involved in the evacuation with adhering to rules of engagement they had, and said that guidance was “clear, understood, and followed.”

However, the review team did not take up numerous reports from survivors that after the explosion, militants opened fire on U.S. service members. The initial investigation found that the loss of life was caused by the single explosion, and that troops who reported coming under gunfire and returning it were probably confused amid the chaos.

“If anything,” one review team member said, “we’ve only confirmed our assertions that there was no complex attack.”

Killed in the attack were 11 Marines: Lance Cpl. David Espinoza, 20; Sgt. Nicole Gee, 23; Staff Sgt. Darin Taylor Hoover, 31; Cpl. Hunter Lopez, 22; Lance Cpl. Dylan R. Merola, 20; Lance Cpl. Rylee McCollum, 20; Lance Cpl. Kareem Nikoui, 20; Cpl. Daegan William-Tyeler Page, 23; Sgt. Johanny Rosario Pichardo, 25; Cpl. Humberto Sanchez, 22; and Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz, 20. Also killed were Army Staff Sgt. Ryan Knauss, 23, and Navy Hospital Corpsman Maxton Soviak, 22.

Hoover’s father, Darin Hoover, said in an interview that family members have been notified of the review team’s findings over each of the past two weekends. He said the team provided “much, much, much more detail than we were originally given,” but he still questioned whether they had the full truth about the suicide bomber.

“That’s not sitting too well with me, to be honest with you,” he said. “I think there is lot more to that they’re not telling us.”

The elder Hoover said Marines present after the explosion continue to insist they came under and returned gunfire, and he remains disgusted, he said, that the United States relied on the Taliban to provide security outside the airport.

“Here we are allowing the enemy to be our security,” he said. “It just makes no sense to me whatsoever.”
Review says Abbey Gate bombing wasn’t preventable, refutes claims troops sighted the would-be bomber (AP)
AP [4/15/2024 1:44 PM, Lolita C. Baldor and Farnoush Amiri, 22K, Negative]
The suicide bombing at the Kabul airport that killed U.S. troops and Afghans in August 2021 was not preventable, and the “bald man in black” spotted by U.S. service members the morning of the attack was not the bomber, according to a new review by U.S. Central Command.

The findings, released Monday, refute assertions by some service members who believed they had a chance to take out the would-be bomber but did not get approval. And, for the first time, the U.S. military is confirming that the bomber was Abdul Rahman al-Logari, an Islamic State militant who had been in an Afghan prison but was released by the Taliban as the group took control of the country that summer.

The Abbey Gate bombing during the final chaotic days of the Afghanistan withdrawal killed 13 U.S. service members and 170 Afghans, and wounded scores more. It triggered widespread debate and congressional criticism, fueled by emotional testimony from a Marine injured in the blast, who said snipers believe they saw the possible bomber but couldn’t get approval to take him out.

Former Marine Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews told the House Foreign Affairs Committee last March that Marines and others aiding in the evacuation were given descriptions of men believed to be plotting an attack. Vargas-Andrews, who was injured in the blast but not interviewed in the initial investigation, said he and others saw a man matching the description and might have been able to stop the attack, but requests to take action were denied.

In a detailed briefing to a small number of reporters, members of the team that did the review released photos of the bald man identified by military snipers as a potential threat and compared it with photos of al-Logari. The team members, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity to provide details not yet made public, described facial recognition and other analysis they used that they said confirmed those were not the same man.

“For the past two years, some service members have claimed that they had the bomber in their sights and they could have prevented the attack. We now know that is not correct,” said a team member.

They said they also showed the photo of the bald man to service members during the latest interviews, and that the troops again confirmed that was the suspicious man they had targeted.

The review notes that the bald man was first seen around 7 a.m. and that troops lost sight of him by 10 a.m. The bombing was more than seven hours later, and the U.S. says al-Logari didn’t get to Abbey Gate until “very shortly” before the blast took place. They declined to be more specific about the timing, saying details are classified.

Family members of those killed in the blast received similar briefings over the past two weekends and some are still unconvinced.

“For me, personally, we are still not clear. I believe Tyler saw what Tyler saw and he knows what he saw. And it was not the guy that they were claiming was the man in black,” Jim McCollum, the father of Marine Lance Cpl. Rylee McCollum, told The Associated Press.

He said the team went into “pretty good detail, not trying to discredit Tyler, but effectively saying he was wrong. However, that ended up being as clear as mud to us.”

And Mark Schmitz, the father of Marine Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz, questioned the photo itself.

“They kept saying this is who Tyler Vargas-Andrews was looking at and we were thinking to ourselves, ‘well, that’s interesting. Why is this a picture of a picture from a Canon camera?’” he said. “To me it felt like they were trying to find the guy in those cameras that may have come close to looking like somebody of interest that they can try to sell to us.”

The families, however, also said they were relieved to get more details about their loved ones’ deaths, saying the initial briefings were not as good.

Schmitz said that Army Gen. Eric Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, was part of the latest briefing and apologized for how the families were treated during the initial probe. This time around officials were able to share with Schmitz for the first time exactly where his son was when the bomb went off and that he was unconscious almost immediately, and therefore did not feel the impact of the shrapnel that went through his left torso, hitting a primary artery.

“That to me was, first and foremost, the best news I could have gotten,” Schmitz said. “That gave me a little bit of closure that my son didn’t suffer, which made me feel really good.”

Team members said they also are planning to speak with the troops who were interviewed this time, to share the results of the report.

They said the review also could not completely rule out claims that militants did a test run of the bombing several days earlier. But after reviewing photos and other intelligence, the team concluded it was unlikely that three men seen carrying a large bag — which troops deemed suspicious — were doing a trial run.

More broadly, the team said the review brought some new details to light, including more discussion about the possible bombing test run. But they said overall it confirmed the findings of U.S. Central Command’s initial investigation into the bombing: that it was not preventable and that reports of threats prior to the bombing were too vague.

As an example, the new review noted that threat reports talked about a possible bomber with groomed hair, wearing loose clothes, and carrying a black bag. That description, the review said, could have matched anyone in the enormous crowd desperately trying to get into the airport.

The team said they conducted 52 interviews for the review — adding up to a total of 190 when the previous investigation is included. Service members were asked about 64 questions, and the sessions lasted between one hour and seven hours long.

A number of those questioned weren’t included in the original investigation, many because they were severely wounded in the attack. The new review was ordered last September by Kurilla, largely due to criticism of the initial investigation and assertions that the deadly assault could have been stopped.

Members of the team said the Islamic State group put out the bomber’s name on social media, but U.S. intelligence was later able to independently confirm that report.

U.S. Central Command’s initial investigation concluded in November 2021 that given the worsening security situation at the airport’s Abbey Gate as Afghans became increasingly desperate to flee, “ the attack was not preventable at the tactical level without degrading the mission to maximize the number of evacuees.”

Critics have slammed the Biden administration for the catastrophic evacuation, and they’ve complained that no one was held accountable for it. And while the U.S. was able to get more than 130,000 civilians out of the country during the panic after the Taliban took control of the government, there were horrifying images of desperate Afghans clinging to military aircraft as they lifted off.
Kabul airport bomber was an ISIS operative freed from prison by the Taliban (NBC News)
NBC News [4/15/2024 1:42 PM, Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains, 3304K, Negative]
The man who detonated a bomb outside the Kabul airport in August 2021, killing 170 Afghans and 13 American service members, was an Islamic State operative who had been held in a coalition detention facility in Afghanistan but was freed by the Taliban, according to a new U.S. military review that has identified him for the first time.

Some service members who were at the airport that day claimed they had spotted the suicide bomber at the site and were ordered not to engage. But the review found that those service members had the wrong man in their sights, and the strike was not preventable.

“There was no opportunity to engage the bomber prior to the attack,” said a senior U.S. military official, who was involved in the supplemental review.

The bombing at Abbey Gate took place during the U.S. military’s chaotic exit from Afghanistan. Thousands of people had converged on the airport in a desperate effort to flee after the Taliban’s swift takeover of the country.

An initial Pentagon review released in February 2022 found that the attack was carried out by a lone suicide bomber and that it was not preventable. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, ordered the supplemental review last year after witnesses of the attack came forward with new information and allegations that they could have stopped it but were denied the chance to do so.

One of the most vocal witnesses was retired Marine Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews, who lost an arm and a leg in the attack, and suffered damage to internal organs that resulted in roughly 50 surgeries.

In testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee in March 2023, Vargas-Andrews said the Marines and others involved in the evacuation were given descriptions of men believed to be plotting an attack. Vargas-Andrews said he and others spotted a man who fit the description — a person who came to be known as “bald man in black.”

But the review — which included interviews with more than 50 service members directly involved in the evacuation, including a dozen who had not previously been interviewed — found that this man had no connection to the attack.

The actual bomber was Abdul Rahman al-Logari, according to the U.S. military. A facial comparison analysis determined that al-Logari and the bald man in black could not be the same person, the review found.

The team of military investigators reviewed photos and video taken of the scene before the attack and found no footage of al-Logari. He was determined to have arrived immediately before the blast and blended in with the massive crowd gathered outside the airport.

The officials involved in the review said that given the density of the crowd, the U.S. military members at the scene did not have time to identify him.

A day after the attack, ISIS-K, an Islamic State offshoot based in Afghanistan, identified al-Logari as the bomber. The new review marks the first time U.S. officials have said they have independent confirmation.

Al-Logari was among the thousands of militants released from Afghan prisons after the Taliban seized control of Kabul in mid-August 2021. But the officials involved in the review said U.S. intelligence determined that even if al-Logari had not been released from prison, the attack would likely have still been carried out because ISIS-K had other bombers ready and available.
Pakistan
Pakistan opposition forms six-way alliance to challenge government (Nikkei Asia)
Nikkei Asia [4/16/2024 2:40 AM, Adnan Aamir, 293K, Neutral]
Pakistan’s six opposition parties, including former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have allied with the explicit goal of toppling the incumbent government.

The alliance, Tehreek Tahafuz Ayeen-i-Pakistan (Movement for the Protection of the Constitution of Pakistan) on Saturday held its inaugural political gathering in the Pishin city of Balochistan, a southwestern province, with a show of power.

In addition to the PTI, the alliance includes two ethnic nationalist parties from Balochistan -- the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party and Balochistan National Party (Mengal) -- and three nationwide Islamist parties: Jamaat e Islami, the Sunni Ittehad Council, and Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen.

"The purpose of this movement is not confined to removing the incumbent government, but to ensuring the supremacy of the Constitution of Pakistan," Mehmood Khan Achakzai, the alliance’s president, told the gathering.

Achakzai was also the PTI-supported candidate in last month’s presidential elections in Pakistan, where he lost to Asif Zardari from the Pakistan People’s Party.

Immediately after the general elections of Feb. 8 -- which generated controversy and wide-ranging allegations of result tampering -- PTI started holding regular protests. It claims to have won more than 170 seats out of 265 but was limited to 92 in the official results. The Election Commission of Pakistan denies PTI’s claims.

With the alliance, PTI gains allies who can join its protests and provide more strength by numbers.

Experts believe the alliance will create great difficulty for the government of Shehbaz Sharif.

Ikram ul Haq, an economics and taxation expert who has a doctorate in law, told Nikkei that the alliance certainly poses a challenge to a coalition government that public sentiment is already against.

"The formation of [the alliance] is an indication to the coalition government that the smooth running of state affairs is not possible by denying the people their fundamental right to representation," Haq said.

Pakistan’s poor economy, meanwhile, might give the new movement some ammunition against the government.

The country has experienced the sharpest cost of living increase in Asia, with expectations for 25% inflation for 2024, according to the latest Asian Development Outlook by the Asian Development Bank.

"The opposition coalition can create a mass movement" as life for ordinary Pakistanis grows "extremely difficult due to the rising cost of living," Haq told Nikkei, adding that an "unprecedented hike" in electricity rates will result in "astronomical" bills this summer.

Haq added that the opposition alliance can successfully capitalize on economic issues for agitation but must win over students, laborers, farmers and members of civil society.

"[The alliance] needs to make a united front on this point with lawyers, labor union leaders, and all those working for the rule of law and supremacy of the constitution," Haq said.

However, experts believe removing the government might not be possible anytime soon.

"This opposition alliance can surely create problems for the government in the form of agitation but it can’t topple the government," said Sabookh Syed, a political analyst based in Islamabad.

Cyril Almeida, a political commentator in Islamabad, agrees. "Toppling a government requires the support of the military, which is solidly behind the current government led by Shehbaz," he said.

After the elections, where PTI emerged as the leading party, the imprisoned Imran Khan increased the pace of his political maneuvering against Pakistan’s powerful military establishment. But experts fear Khan’s efforts will pose a challenge to alliance members.

"Except PTI," Syed said, "none among the five opposition parties in the alliance can afford to earn the ire of the military establishment by adopting an aggressive posture against it."
Pakistan Needs Up to Three Years for Reforms, Finance Chief Says (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [4/15/2024 6:12 PM, Eric Martin and Faseeh Mangi, 5543K, Neutral]
Pakistan needs two to three years to implement some of the structural changes the International Monetary Fund has prescribed to break the South Asian country’s chain of financial struggles and bailouts, according to its new finance minister.

The country has long known what is needed in order to steady its economy, and the challenge has been follow-through and implementation, Muhammad Aurangzeb said at the Atlantic Council on Monday. Aurangzeb is visiting the US to attend the IMF and World Bank spring meetings this week, his first trip to Washington since taking office last month.

“Once we get into the execution, we will need a two- to three-year time period so we can actually go through the structural reforms,” said Aurangzeb, who previously worked at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “If we don’t go through the structural reforms, unfortunately we’ll still be looking for another program,” he said of the South Asian country that has had 24 IMF loans in its history.

One of his most immediate tasks is to seal a new long-term deal with the IMF for a loan worth at least $6 billion, which Bloomberg reported earlier this year. Aurangzeb previously said he expects to conclude the agreement by June for the program, which will last a minimum three years, and reiterated on Monday that his priority is to get that lending program and reform plan negotiated as quickly as possible.

Key objectives in the negotiations for the fund will include broadening the tax base, improving debt sustainability and restoring viability to the energy sector, the IMF said last month. These are steps that Pakistan has avoided for decades as they are unpopular decisions.

Pakistan rebuilt trust with the IMF through the completion of its nine-month loan where an agreement was reached in March for the final disbursement, he said. He put a positive spin on the nation’s economy, saying it’s moving in the right direction, supported by bumper crops which have boosted agricultural output, the improving services sector, slower inflation and a stable exchange rate.

“Our country doesn’t need too many policy prescriptions: we have known the what and why not for years, but for decades,” Aurangzeb said.

Pakistan is lurching from one bailout program to the next with its current $3 billion program set to end soon. A final loan installment is pending approval that the IMF board is expected to review later this month.

Aurangzeb became finance minister as Pakistan’s economy endures the most turbulent period in its history, with low growth and high debt payments. The nation remains heavily reliant on IMF aid with $24 billion in external financing needs in the fiscal year starting July, about three times its foreign exchange reserves.
Pakistan hopes to secure new IMF loan as quickly as possibly, finance minister says (Reuters)
Reuters [4/15/2024 5:09 PM, Karin Strohecker and Rodrigo Campos, 5239K, Neutral]
Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Monday he would hold talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during his visit to Washington and hoped to get a new loan agreement in place as soon as possible.

Pakistan and the IMF last month reached a staff-level agreement on the second and last review of its current $3 billion stand-by arrangement which, if cleared by the global lender’s board, will release about $1.1 billion to the struggling South Asian nation.

That arrangement runs out in late April and the country needs more funding to avoid a balance of payment crisis.

"The purpose is to agree the strategies with the fund, and get the EEF (Extended Fund Facility) in place as quickly as possible," Aurangzeb said at an event at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, where the IMF World Bank Spring Meetings was getting underway.

"We are looking for larger loan. We will need a two to three year time period, so that we can actually go through the structural reforms," he said, declining to give further details.
Pakistan’s premier calls for closer cooperation with Saudi Arabia to enhance investment in Pakistan (AP)
AP [4/16/2024 5:18 AM, Staff, 11975K, Negative]
Pakistan’s prime minister called for closer cooperation between Saudi Arabia and his cash-strapped Islamic nation to enhance Saudi investment in his country, a government statement said Tuesday.

Shehbaz Sharif made his remarks during a meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan who arrived Monday in the capital, Islamabad, to discuss a range of issues, including how to help Pakistan overcome its economic crisis.

The previous week, Sharif met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, one of Pakistan’s closest allies and a leading supplier of oil to Islamabad. According to Pakistani officials, Prince Mohammed had assured Pakistan that Saudi Arabia would invest $5 billion in Pakistan.

On Monday, Sharif said the visit by Prince Faisal and the high level delegation showed the “strong commitment of both countries to the strengthening of bilateral relations focused on mutually beneficial economic cooperation.”

Prince Faisal also met with President Asif Ali Zardari. He was expected to address a joint news conference with his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, later Tuesday.

In July, Saudi Arabia deposited $2 billion into Pakistan’s central bank to boost its foreign exchange reserves.
Gunmen kill Pakistani once linked to 2013 murder of alleged Indian spy (Reuters)
Reuters [4/15/2024 8:26 AM, Mubasher Bukhari, 5239K, Negative]
Gunmen shot dead a man once charged with the 2013 killing of an Indian national jailed in Pakistan for alleged spying, according to officials and a police report, against a backdrop of fraught relations between the rival South Asian powers.

Ties have been on ice since a suicide bomb attack on an Indian military convoy in Kashmir in 2019 that India traced to Pakistan-based militants. India responded with an airstrike on what New Delhi said was a militant training camp in Pakistan. Islamabad said the target was a seminary only.

The convicted spy, Sarabjit Singh, died in hospital in 2013 after having been attacked with bricks and blades by two fellow inmates in a Pakistani jail.

Two police officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters on Monday that one of Singh’s suspected attackers in 2013 had been identified as former inmate Amir Sarfraz Tamba, and the police record seen by Reuters said the same.

However, a Pakistani court acquitted Tamba of involvement in the murder in 2018.

In Sunday’s incident, according to a police report, his brother Junaid Sarfraz told police the gunmen barged into Tamba’s home in a Lahore neighbourhood and killed him with three gunshots.

"We suspect India’s involvement in this, but will wait for the investigation to be completed," Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi told a news conference.

He said the killing echoed a pattern of certain targeted attacks in recent months that Islamabad had blamed on New Delhi.

The foreign ministries of the two South Asian powers did not respond to a Reuters request for a comment. Reuters tried to contact Sarfraz but his mobile phone was constantly switched off.

Earlier this year, Islamabad said it had credible evidence linking Indian agents to the killing of two of its citizens on its soil, which New Delhi branded as an attempt to peddle "false and malicious anti-India propaganda".

Last year, Canada and the United States separately accused Indian agents of links to assassination attempts on their soil.

India has denied the Canadian accusations and launched an investigation into the U.S. allegations.

Islamabad says the alleged Indian network of "extra-judicial and extra-territorial killings" has become a global phenomenon.

New Delhi also accuses Islamabad of training and harbouring Islamist militants responsible for attacks in its part of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, divided between the two nations.

They have fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947.
WHO warns of falsified cough syrup ingredients seized in Pakistan (Reuters)
Reuters [4/15/2024 3:02 PM, Patrick Wingrove, 5239K, Neutral]
The World Health Organization issued an alert on Monday warning drugmakers of five contaminated batches of propylene glycol, an ingredient used in medicinal syrups, that appear to have been falsely labelled as manufactured by Dow Chemical (DOW.N) units in Asia and Europe.

The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (DRAP) issued three alerts between January and March over high levels of ethylene glycol (EG), an industrial solvent known to be toxic, found in drums purportedly made by subsidiaries of Dow Chemical in Thailand, Germany and Singapore.

DRAP sent suspect drums of propylene glycol, a sweet-tasting alcohol used in over-the-counter medicines such as cough syrups, for testing. The samples were found to have EG contamination of 0.76-100%, according to the WHO. International manufacturing standards say only trace amounts of EG, below 0.1%, can be considered safe.

Contaminated cough syrups made in India and Indonesia have been linked to deaths of more than 300 children globally since late 2022. The medicines were found to contain high levels of EG and diethylene glycol, leading to acute kidney injury and death. In the Indonesia case, authorities found that one supplier had placed false Dow Thailand labels onto drums containing EG that it sold to a distributor for pharmaceutical use.

Several of the batches seized by DRAP were labelled as having been manufactured in 2023, the WHO said, months after the agency issued a global alert calling on drugmakers to verify the quality of their suppliers.

The WHO said Dow confirmed that the materials identified in its Monday alert and found by DRAP were not manufactured or supplied by the company.

"The propylene glycol materials identified in this alert are considered to have been deliberately and fraudulently mislabelled," the WHO said, noting batches may have been distributed to other countries and still be in storage.

Dow did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The WHO alert comes the same week regulators in Tanzania and Rwanda joined Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa to recall batches of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) children’s cough syrup after Nigeria said it found high levels of diethylene glycol, an industrial solvent known to be toxic.

The batch of Benylin Paediatric syrup recalled was made by J&J in South Africa in May 2021, although Kenvue (KVUE.N) now owns the brand after a spin-off from J&J last year.
India
U.S. NSA Sullivan postpones India visit due to Middle East tensions (Reuters)
Reuters [4/16/2024 1:38 AM, Shivam Patel and Krishn Kaushik, 5.2M, Neutral]
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has postponed a visit to India scheduled for this week due to "ongoing events in the Middle East", the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi said on Tuesday.

Fears of a wider conflict in the region have escalated after Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel over the weekend, in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy in Syria this month.
Modi Defends Scrapped Electoral Bonds Ahead of National Polls (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [4/15/2024 11:18 AM, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, 5543K, Neutral]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi defended political funding through electoral bonds, which were scrapped by India’s top court, even as the opposition parties accused his party of using the instruments to raise funds from companies.

The bonds eliminated cash and corruption in poll funding, Modi said in an interview with news agency ANI on Monday. People “will regret when there is honest reflection” as electoral bonds were meant to end unaccounted funds in elections, he said.

The Supreme Court of India banned all political funding through the anonymous donation instruments in February. The court called the funding mechanism unconstitutional and said these bonds, which protected the identity of donors to political parties, violated the right to information of citizens.

Modi’s defense of the scrapped funding mechanism comes four days before federal elections begin in the country, where he is seeking a record third straight term in the office. India’s opposition has severely criticized the instrument and is trying rally public opinion around it.

The bonds were a way to extort money, intimidate corporates, and force them to donate money to Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, said Rahul Gandhi, a prominent opposition leader from the Congress party.

The scrapped arrangement was a success as it left a trail of donations made by people and companies to political parties, Modi said.
India’s Modi warns of ‘black money’ in political funding after old system scrapped by court (Reuters)
Reuters [4/15/2024 9:05 AM, Shivam Patel, 5239K, Neutral]
A Supreme Court decision to scrap a controversial political funding system has pushed contributions to parties towards "black money", or illegal funds, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in remarks broadcast on Monday.

India’s top court in February scrapped as unconstitutional a seven-year-old election funding system through instruments called "electoral bonds" that allowed individuals and companies to make unlimited and anonymous donations to political parties.

Corporate funding of political parties is a sensitive matter in India and, while there is no suggestion that the funds from the bonds scheme were improper, opposition parties allege that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) used its powers to coerce funding.

In his most detailed defence of the scrapped system days before India begins voting in a general election, Modi denied the accusations and said companies had also donated to the opposition.

He said the system was more transparent than previous ones, but added that there was room for policy improvement.

"In decision-making, we learn and improve. It is very possible to improve in this too. But today we have completely pushed the country towards black money," Modi said in an interview to news agency ANI, in which Reuters has a minority stake.

"And that is why I say everyone will regret it. When they will think honestly, everyone will regret it."

Data released on orders of the Supreme Court in March showed Modi’s BJP was the largest beneficiary of the scrapped system.

The BJP received half of the total bonds sold worth 165 billion rupees ($1.98 billion) between January 2018 and February 2024, the data showed.

Modi also rubbished allegations that his party uses agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED), India’s financial crime-fighting agency, to target opposition leaders for political gains in elections.

"The country should understand that political leaders are involved in only 3% of the ED cases and 97% of cases are registered against the ones who do not belong to politics," he said. "Shouldn’t we let the ED work independently when it is supposed to do so?"
India Hauls Record $557 Million in Illicit Cash Before Elections (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [4/15/2024 5:39 AM, Swati Gupta, 5543K, Neutral]
The Election Commission of India confiscated a record 46.5 billion rupees ($557 million) of illicit money and goods in the run up to voting, more than its haul over the whole of the 2019 elections.

The commission has vowed to crack down on black money used to bribe voters in the world’s biggest election, which kicks off on Friday. It’s set up police checkpoints across the country, searching cars for illicit cash, liquor, drugs and other goods.

The ECI seized 3.9 billion rupees in cash and 11.42 billion rupees worth of freebies in about 45 days, it said in a statement

Monday. Five years ago, the commission’s total haul over the election cycle was 34.75 billion rupees, it said.

Voting will take place in seven phases from April 19 until June 1, leaving around 45 more days during which the commission said it will conduct stringent checks across the country.

Once election dates are announced, a Model Code of Conduct kicks in to ensure there’s no vote bribing or corruption to influence voters.

The commission uses checkposts on roads, guards water transport and checks surveillance on any non-scheduled flights or helicopters.

Earlier Monday, a helicopter belonging to Rahul Gandhi, a top leader of the main opposition Indian National Congress, was searched in Tamil Nadu, local media reported. Gandhi was on his way to his parliamentary constituency and the search was conducted after he landed.
Narendra Modi: India’s popular but controversial leader seeking a transformative third term (CNN)
CNN [4/15/2024 7:39 PM, Rhea Mogul, 6098K, Neutral]
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi once famously made a simple election promise: “good days are coming”.

To his adoring supporters, it’s a vision of a future now finally within reach should Modi and his right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secure an emphatic and rare third consecutive term at this month’s nationwide election.

At his rallies, tens of thousands gather in near frenzied religious devotion in support of a man whose policies they say have transformed the lives of ordinary Indians – and helped enshrine the nascent promise of social mobility in a country still riven by caste divisions.

Modi projects himself as an outsider from humble origins. Born as the son of a tea seller in a small town in Gujarat, he does not fit neatly within the often privately educated, resolutely metropolitan, English-speaking template set by many previous Indian leaders.

The 74-year-old is unmarried, has no children, and seemingly shuns expensive material possessions in favor of a simple, ascetic lifestyle.

And though little is shared about Modi the man – his private life is assiduously guarded by a formidable public relations team – his persona resonates with many.

His political rise in some ways mirrors India’s own path from a newly independent nation freed from the shackles of colonialism to a confident, secure country inching ever closer to superpower status – albeit one wracked by deep and abiding fault lines.

Modi, his opponents argue, has done little to soothe those divisions.

Religious persecution and Islamophobia have increased sharply on his watch, with many accusing the prime minister of tacitly endorsing sectarianism as a means of further bolstering his Hindu-nationalist credentials, while diverting from policy failures – such as youth unemployment, which now stands at close to 50% among 20- to 24-year-olds.

Among India’s minorities, particularly the country’s 230 million Muslims, the prospect of another five-years for a prime minister who calls himself the “chowkidar” – or watchman – remains deeply concerning.

Many don’t believe Modi is watching out for them – instead, they say they are marginalized as he fulfills his party’s dream of transforming secular, pluralistic India into a majoritarian Hindu state.

“As he goes toward seeking a third term, Prime Minister Modi has positioned himself as a head priest alongside the head of the political system … the protector of the nation (and), as the creator of a Hindu-first nation,” said Saba Naqvi, author of “The Saffron Storm: From Vajpayee to Modi.”

This seemingly potent, populist mix of economic empowerment and Hindu nationalism has proved to be a successful electoral formula for Modi, confounding longstanding social and regional voting lines.

According to 2023 Pew research, about eight-in-ten Indian adults have a favorable view of Modi, including 55% who have a very favorable view. Such levels of popularity for a two-term incumbent prime minister defy all modern conventions, both in India and throughout much of the democratic world.

“He’s done something which has not happened before in Indian politics among all our prime ministers,” said Naqvi. “He has willfully created a cult of his own personality.”

‘Many people think he is God’

As the sun sets across the Ganges, Hindu devotees bathe in the holy river’s waters and priests offer daily prayer by its banks. It’s here, in the city of Varanasi – Modi’s own constituency – that this so-called cult of personality is on full display.

Billboards with the prime minister’s face appear on the corners of roads, and saffron flags with his party’s lotus symbol are hoisted on buildings across the dusty, meandering gulleys of the ancient city.

On the streets, his party’s volunteers go door-to-door advocating for the leader.

When Modi first ran for prime minister a decade ago, he did so on a promise of infrastructure, development and anti-corruption, choosing the city of gods as his constituency – its religious symbolism the perfect backdrop for his BJP’s Hindu nationalist ambitions.

In one of Varanasi’s oldest spice markets, shopkeepers say their lives have been transformed since.

“Many people think he is God,” said father of two, Akash Jaiswal, pointing to Modi’s welfare schemes and business incentives. “We’ve never had a prime minister like Modi ever. He’s done a great sacrifice for India, for us … We want him to be prime minister forever.”

Jaiswal even praised some of Modi’s most controversial leadership moments. “India had the least casualties during Covid,” he said, when in fact the country had the third highest number of pandemic-related deaths, after the United States and Brazil, according to the World Health Organization. Modi was highly criticized for his handling of the pandemic and accused of being underprepared, as hospitals reached their limit and morgues overflowed with bodies.

The city’s BJP President, Dileep Patel, who has helped Modi with all three of his election campaigns, however, isn’t surprised by his enduring levels of popularity. To him, Modi represents India’s future.

“Today India is strong, capable, and self-reliant under the prime minister’s leadership,” he said.

Son of a teaseller

Modi’s official party biography tells the story of a poor boy, the third of six children, whose father was a “chaiwallah” or tea seller, who’d serve customers at the local train station to support his young family

Promoted by the BJP, analysts say this tale of humble beginnings makes him relatable to hundreds of millions across the country. And it stands in stark contrast to the generations of India’s elite, urbane politicians that have historically risen to the top job.

“He comes from a poor background and that helps him understands the people of India,” said Varanasi BJP president Patel.

India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, was a member of the Indian National Congress, a political party that was pivotal in ending nearly 200 years of British colonial rule. His daughter, Indira Gandhi, also became prime minister, as did her son, Rajiv. All three studied overseas at Cambridge or Oxford.

The face of today’s Congress Party, and Modi’s primary opponent, is Rahul Gandhi, son of Rajiv, and an alumni of both Cambridge and Harvard.

Modi, by contrast, had a modest upbringing in the small town of Vadnagar, far from the political cut and thrust of the capital New Delhi, according to Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of “Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.”

Mukhopadhyay notes Modi was an average student at school and his marriage was arranged to a woman at 17.

Though Mukhopadhyay claims the tale of Modi’s poverty is “grossly exaggerated,” his charisma – and confidence – was evident from an early age.

“He liked acting in school plays,” said Mukhopadhyay. “He always wanted to have the lead role. If the lead role was not given to him, he would not act in the play at all.”

Modi was still a child when he was exposed to the idea of Hindu nationalism through classes at the local branch of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing paramilitary organization that advocates for the establishment of Hindu hegemony within India.

Founded in 1925 by Keshav Baliram Hedgewar, a campaigner who had split from Nehru’s Congress party over what he believed to be “undue pampering of the Muslims,” its central mission is to “nourish the Hindu culture,” according to the group’s website.

At 17, Modi abandoned his family and his wife, left his village and traversed India with the group in search of a spiritual awakening, according to his biography. He devoted himself to the RSS, never remarried and learned to “leave all the pleasures in life,” according to an interview he gave in 2019.

By 1972, he had become a “pracharak” for the RSS, according to his biography, someone appointed to spread their cause through meetings and public lectures.

The turning point for the young activist came in 1975, when then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi invoked what she called necessary “shock treatment” to stamp out internal unrest. She imposed a state of emergency, tightening government control, rounding up critics, censoring her opposition and silencing the press.

Detached from the demands of marriage, Modi then 25, saw an opportunity, according to his biography. He joined a movement to restore democracy to India, his profile states, marking the start of his journey to political high office.

And in the absence of a family life, many of his supporters have claimed him as part of their own, adding to his everyman appeal. “Modi is our family,” said the shopkeeper Jaiswal in Varanasi. “We are all his family.”

Entry into the BJP

Modi joined the BJP in 1987, when the fringe political party started gaining traction fueled by the rise of Hindu nationalism in India.

Considered to be the political arm of the RSS, the BJP gained prominence that decade when it advocated for the destruction of the Babri Masjid, a 16th-century mosque believed by Hindus to have been built on the site of the birthplace of the religion’s revered Lord Ram.

And it was thrust into the mainstream in 1992, when – spurred on by members of the BJP – Hindu hardliners attacked the mosque, ripping it apart with their hands, and setting off a wave of sectarian violence that reverberated through the nation.

One of the BJP’s founders Lal Krishna Advani – widely believed to be the brains behind the mosque’s destruction – saw a leader in Modi, giving him immense responsibilities within the party.

No politician “brings the experience that Modi does,” Naqvi, the author, said last month from her home in New Delhi, referring to his various political roles.

Modi thrived under Advani’s guidance, working his way through the ranks of the BJP. In 2001, he was appointed chief minister of the wealthy state of Gujarat.

Under Modi’s governance, the state introduced a wave of infrastructure, industry, and innovation to its arid landscape – making the “Gujarat model” synonymous with development and government efficiency.

His tenure was not without controversy.

Violence erupted in Gujarat in 2002 when Hindus blamed Muslims for setting fire to a train in an incident that killed dozens of Hindu pilgrims and sought revenge by attacking Muslim-owned homes and stores.

More than 1,000 people – mostly Muslims – were killed, according to government figures. Critics accused Modi of being complicit in the violence, alleging that his administration failed to prevent or adequately respond to the unrest.

Modi faced international repercussions in its aftermath, with the United States banning him from entering the country for many years over concerns about human rights violations.

He vehemently denied any wrongdoing, and the Supreme Court cleared him of complicity. Months after the violence, he was re-elected with a roaring majority – the “first evidence” of his cult following, said Naqvi, the author.

But the polarization of communities deeply divided the nation, leaving scars that persist to this day.

Political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot suggested events in Gujarat made Hindu nationalists more confident. “But Modi himself is so insecure, he cannot face any questions,” he said.

Modi infamously walked out of an interview in 2007, when journalist Karan Thapar pressed him on his role in the Gujarat riots. He rarely gives interviews, and has not held a solo press conference since becoming Prime Minister.

“He cannot face debate,” Jaffrelot said.

Becoming prime minister

Modi’s “Gujarat model” had become a blueprint for India and in 2014, the BJP won by a landslide, crushing the Congress – the party’s worst defeat in more than 100 years of its existence.

Since entering into office, Modi’s administration has upgraded the country’s aging transport network, building highways connecting small villages with major cities. His administration has built new power plants and maritime projects, and, according to recent remarks from Modi himself, subsidized the construction of some 40 million concrete homes for improvised families.

The administration also bolstered the country’s military capabilities. And it’s invested money in sports, science and high-end technology – letting India thrive on the world stage.

But for some observers, a troubling pattern has also emerged.

“He was able to popularize Hindu nationalistic politics and their ideology,” said Mukhopadhyay, the writer and unofficial Modi biographer.

Modi appointed Hindu nationalists to top positions in government, giving them the power to make sweeping changes to legislation, instilling a sense of fear among the 230 million Muslims living in the country.

In 2019, he roared through polls yet again – this time on a more clearly defined ticket of Hindu supremacy.

He abrogated the special autonomy of Kashmir – India’s only Muslim-majority state – bringing it under the direct control of New Delhi. His government implemented a controversial citizenship law considered by many to be discriminatory against Muslims.

He built the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on the site of the destroyed mosque, reviving painful memories of 1992’s bloodshed for many Muslims, but brought a sense of pride for millions of Hindu devotees.

And to his more vocal critics, Modi’s economic policies are also open to question. Despite India now boasting an economy that is projected to grow 7.3% this fiscal year – the highest rate among major global economies – accusations persist that Modi has failed to create enough jobs, or adequately bridge the gap between the country’s billionaire class and its most improvised.

“He has made the poor, poorer. He has increased inequalities,” said Jaffrelot, in reference to the country’s wealth gap, which according to a recent study is more unequal than it was during British rule.

On the diplomatic front, he’s grown closer to the US, been wooed by Australia and courted by the United Kingdom.

At the same time, Modi has kept India’s historically close relationship with Russia — snapping up huge amounts of Moscow’s oil despite the Ukraine invasion — and he maintains relations with both Israel and other Middle Eastern countries at a time of increased polarization.

And an overwhelming majority of Indians appear to put their weight behind his leadership. A recent Morning Context poll ranked Modi as the world’s most popular global leader, with an approval rating of 76% at home.

“He’s the number one figure right now. He’s the only candidate for prime minister,” Naqvi said.

At a Modi rally in the northern city of Ghaziabad earlier this month, thousands of supporters thronged the large grounds as he walked on stage. Some dressed as the Indian god Ram, others head to toe in saffron, the official color of his BJP, their triumphant cries reverberating through the air.

In the city of Meerut in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, a Modi supporter says she is voting for him because he is “unlike any other politician in the world.”

“I have put Modi’s poster in my son’s room,” Raniva, who is 36 and goes by one name, said. “The way (he) is doing so much for the country, I hope my son also does good work for the country.”

On the streets of the capital New Delhi, opinion is more divided. “Nowadays there is so much fighting between Hindus and Muslims. We all know why,” said one rickshaw driver sitting outside the city’s famed Jama Mosque.

With Modi widely expected to comfortably win the upcoming election, some analysts say they have genuine fears about the future of the country’s democracy.

“I definitely see a decline in the quality of democracy in the country,” said Mukhopadhyay. “I see greater insecurity and marginalization of Muslims in India. That’s not a very rosy picture. But it’s the likely path India is going to take.”
India’s journalists intimidated into silence, says veteran broadcaster (VOA)
VOA [4/15/2024 2:46 PM, Robin Guess, 761K, Negative]
“Journalism is dead,” declares Ravish Kumar as the veteran journalist discusses the crisis he says India’s media are confronting.

“If you want to find journalism in India today, you need to pick up your magnifying glass,” he told VOA.

Kumar quit his job as an evening news anchor in November 2022, after more than 25 years with NDTV, one of India’s biggest networks. At the time, he cited concerns about editorial independence after billionaire Gautam Adani, a close associate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, bought the network.

“They pocket money from the market in the name of journalism, and still they are not doing journalism,” Kumar told VOA.

Broadcasting in Hindi, Kumar had built a reputation for taking the government to task with tough questions. He has twice been awarded the Ramnath Goenka Excellence in Journalism Award, and won the Ramon Magsaysay Award, among others.

He says India’s journalists have been intimidated by the government, and don’t ask questions because they fear backlash.

“Everything from the government is going to the public without being scrutinized by the mainstream media,” Kumar said.

When he resigned, Kumar said he had a Facebook following of millions. So he hoped his social media popularity would help as he launched a YouTube channel.

The channel, Ravish Kumar Official, has more than 9.6 million subscribers and through it, says Kumar, he can tell the stories India’s mainstream media won’t cover.

Kumar says he hasn’t watched NDTV, and has no plans to do so, since his departure. But with his own channel, he can cover stories that he says the mainstream media ignore.

He feels India’s media failed to adequately cover issues such as electoral bonds. The bonds would have allowed unlimited anonymous donations to political parties. He also says political corruption isn’t adequately covered.

“I demonstrated that one politician, a member of parliament, had been behind bars for six months and there’s a picture of him coming out from the jail,” Kumar said. “Two Hindi newspapers made this non-significant news.”

But taking on political stories is a risk at a time when press freedom in India is in decline.

“I don’t know whether or not my channel will survive, and what kind of action will be taken,” Kumar said. He added that this kind of apprehension and anxiety “runs through every YouTuber who is doing journalism and who are questioning the government of India.”

And, as an independent journalist broadcasting on YouTube, “You have to do everything on your own,” said Kumar. “That comes with its own sets of problems and challenges.”

Kumar starts his days at 5 a.m. and is often still working at 9 p.m. He produces two shows a day, with a team of eight people.

Media watchdog Reporters Without Borders, or RSF, has long warned of rising hostility and pressure on India’s journalists.

“Since Narendra Modi came to power, we see the persecution of journalists and the media has intensified,” Celia Mercier, who heads RSF’s South Asia desk, told VOA.

“We have cases of censorship, intimidation, attacks, repression of critical voices, cyber harassment,” she added. “And it’s all the more worrying in a country considered the world’s largest democracy.”

When Modi came to power in 2014, India ranked 140 out of 180 countries on the RSF World Press Freedom Index. In 2023, it ranked 161, where 1 shows the best environment.

The Indian Embassy in Washington did not respond to VOA emails or calls requesting comment.

RSF and other watchdogs have also cited India’s use of laws, including on information technology and national security, to target media that report critically.

The Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, for instance, has been used to target reporters.

“We have seen this anti-terrorism law used to crack down on journalists in the case of NewsClick, which is an independent media,” Mercier said.

The media advocate said a special cell of Delhi police raided the news outlet in October.

“It was a deployment of 500 police officers and the head of this independent media, NewsClick, has been detained for the last six months under the anti-terrorism law,” Mercier added.

International news organizations have also been affected. The New Delhi and Mumbai offices of the BBC were raided in February 2023. The action, described by the government spokesperson at the time as a “tax survey,” came weeks after India described a BBC documentary on Modi as “propaganda.”

UCLA information studies professor Ramesh Srinivasan said that with the loss of press freedoms, India is losing its larger Ghandian vision.

“It is directly tied to the Modi government and its neo-authoritarian actions,” Srinivasan told VOA. “A number of independent journalists have been intimidated, harassed, bullied and some independent media networks have been shut down.”

Kumar says the government hasn’t threatened him yet, but he worries his news channel may be next.

“If YouTube shuts down my channel, my journalism ends with that,” he said. “Because no news channel or newspaper is willing to publish my column.”

Kumar says as challenging as his life has become, quitting NDTV and starting a news channel was his choice.

“No regrets I made the right decision,” he said.
A boat capsizes in Indian-controlled Kashmir, killing at least 4 people (AP)
AP [4/16/2024 2:29 AM, Mukhtar Khan, 456K, Neutral]
A boat carrying a group of people capsized in a river in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Tuesday, drowning four of them, news agency Press Trust of India reported.

The boat capsized in Jhelum river near Srinagar, the region’s main city. Most of the passengers were children, and rescuers were searching for many others who were still missing.

Heavy rains fell over the region in the past few days, leading to higher water levels in the river.

Boating accidents are common in India, where many vessels are overcrowded and have inadequate safety equipment.

Last year, 22 people drowned when a double-decker boat carrying more than 30 passengers capsized near a beach in Kerala state in southern India.

In May 2018, 30 people died when their boat capsized on the swollen Godavari River in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.
India Sees Abundant Monsoon Rain in Boost to Economic Growth (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [4/15/2024 7:59 AM, Pratik Parija and Rajesh Kumar Singh, 5543K, Positive]
India forecast an above-normal monsoon this year, raising optimism that ample rains will spur crop output and economic growth, as well as prompt the government to ease curbs on exports of wheat, rice and sugar.

Precipitation during the June-September period is likely to be 106% of a long-term average of 87 centimeters, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said at a press conference in New Delhi on Monday. The prediction has a margin of error of 5%.

The weather pattern is crucial for the world’s most-populous nation as it irrigates about half of the country’s farmland. Bountiful showers will not only help hundreds of millions of farmers in reaping good harvests, but also support the central bank’s effort to cool food inflation, which was at 8.5% in March.

The administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is seeking a third five-year term in elections starting this month, has taken some steps to contain food prices. It has extended restrictions on exports of several agricultural commodities, sold grains from state reserves and cracked down on hoarding.

Forecast of a normal monsoon bodes well for easing food costs, and headline consumer price inflation eventually, said Anubhuti Sahay, head of economic research, South Asia, at Standard Chartered Plc. A good monsoon is likely to boost rural demand and address concerns about tepid private consumption growth, she said.

The IMD’s outlook assumes significance for the nation, which witnessed the weakest rainy season in five years in 2023. Good showers will help winter crops such as wheat and some oilseeds, generally sown in October and November, as water reservoirs fill up.

Strong farm output may pave the way for resuming exports of key commodities and help soften global prices. India’s move to ensure domestic food security has hit several poorer nations, with rice prices in Asia climbing to a 15-year high earlier this year.

Asia’s third-largest economy may stay strong, after recording a growth rate of 8.4% in the final three months of 2023. It would be good for Modi, who is banking on India’s strong economic prospects, success of the government’s welfare programs and the fulfillment of populist Hindu-nationalist promises to extend his grip on power.

Favorable weather conditions will be a good news for energy planners. Electricity demand may soften as the use of irrigation pumps by farmers fall. The government is counting on good rains to boost its flagging hydropower output that has resulted in an increase in consumption of coal. Last year, poor showers were among the main reasons for a sharp jump in peak electricity demand in August and September.

The bureau said that the El Niño pattern, which tends to lower precipitation in the four-month period from June, may weaken during the early part of the season. However, La Niña, which normally brings more rain to parts of Asia, is expected to develop during August and September.

The country may also witness a hotter-than-usual summer before rains in early June, according to the IMD. “We have already seen two spells of heat waves in April and expect one or two more this month in different parts of the country,” Mohapatra said.
Behind India’s Manipur conflict: A tale of drugs, armed groups and politics (Al Jazeera)
Al Jazeera [4/16/2024 12:00 AM, Angana Chakrabarti, 2.1M, Neutral]
Ratan Kumar Singh, a 58-year-old high school teacher, never imagined he would be happy to see armed fighters, or “revolutionaries” as he called them. But on May 28 last year, Singh welcomed them to his town of Sugnu in Manipur, a state in India’s northeast corner bordering Myanmar.

For nearly three weeks, the small town had managed to dodge the ethnic violence between the Meitei community and the Kuki-Zo tribespeople that had engulfed the rest of the state since May 3. But that day, four people were killed in the area and 12 injured as bullets found their way from surrounding hilly regions and from a camp dominated by the Kuki-Zo community.

“Then they started burning our houses. Our reinforcements, including the police and our civilian volunteers, started firing back. It was only when the revolutionaries came that we succeeded in overcoming the other side,” Singh told Al Jazeera.

“We were never for gun violence… but when we saw the revolutionaries and other Meitei volunteers come on that day, we cried [out of happiness] because we knew we would be safe.”

The fighters who came to defend Sugnu were, like him, ethnically Meitei.

Eleven months on, the conflict has killed 219 people, injured 1,100, displaced 60,000 and divided the state into ethnic territories. Armed groups have been fighting battles using sophisticated weapons and explosives in rural parts for territorial control even as more than 60,000 armed forces of the federal government and the state have so far failed to bring a durable end to the violence.

Each episode of violence and killing has punctured the claims of bridging divides that prime minister and right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Narendra Modi made during an election rally two years ago when he was campaigning for re-election of his party’s chief minister, N Biren Singh, a Meitei.

“From ‘blockade state’, Manipur is paving the way for international trade. Our government has launched… campaigns to bridge the gaps between the Hill and the Valley,” he said during the rally.

Modi was referring to the historical discrimination felt by tribal communities, including the Kukis, who live on the hillsides and feel that the Meitei community is economically more prosperous than them and are in the majority in the smaller valleys and the capital, Imphal. Modi said Chief Minister Singh’s policies had fostered a more integrated relationship between the hill and valley communities.

It appeared true at the time. In several parts of the hills, the civil society and the rebel groups of the Kuki-Zo community canvassed for Chief Minister Singh, and top politicians of the tribal community lined up for tickets from his party.

Chief Minister Singh swept the elections. In his second tenure beginning 2022, the BJP won five of the 10 state assembly seats from the Kuki-dominated hill constituencies. BJP legislators (MLAs) from these constituencies increased to seven after two of the Kuki MLAs who had won on Janata Dal United tickets defected to the governing party in September 2022. Two out of seven MLAs became ministers in his cabinet.

However, two years later, Modi and Singh’s claims bit dust, with Manipur witnessing unending ethnic violence between the Kuki and Meitei people, arguably, the longest-running ethnic conflict the country has witnessed in the 21st century.

Now, as the state prepares to vote in national elections on April 19 and April 26, those divisions have become entrenched, with a resurgence in armed groups formed along ethnic lines, as the first part of this series showed. It also revealed a presentation by the Assam Rifles that listed several factors that played a role in igniting the conflict: illegal immigrants from Myanmar, the demand for Kukiland, political authoritarianism and ambition of Chief Minister Singh and his war on drugs among others.

The war on drugs first played a significant role in the political landscape and later in fuelling the conflict in Manipur. This concluding part of the series investigates how the drug trade and politics over it have roiled Manipur.

The war on drugs

In 2018, still in his first term as chief minister, Singh announced his war on drugs.

“Thousands of hectares of land are used for poppy cultivation in areas near the international border with Myanmar,” he told the media.

Poor economic conditions, lack of job opportunities and easy availability of drugs had led to a high number of drug addicts in the state, he said.

He was not wrong. Manipur sits adjacent to the infamous “Golden Triangle”, an area in Southeast Asia covering civil war-torn Myanmar. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) defines the region as one of the “biggest drug trafficking corridors in the world”. Heroin, opium and synthetic drugs like methamphetamine from the region are “feeding the whole of the Asia Pacific [region]”, the UN said.

The spillover of the trade into Manipur has an old history.

“The drug trade has caught up in Manipur in the last 15 years. [Recently,] the US, other Western countries and the United Nations [have] started going after Myanmar and the Golden Triangle,” Lieutenant General Konsam Himalay Singh, a Meitei, who retired in 2017, told me.

He added, “As a result, the Golden Triangle extended towards the West [into Manipur]. It was accelerated by the armed groups who found easy money.”

He was referring to the array of armed rebel groups of different ethnicities, including the Kuki and Meitei fighters, that proliferate in Manipur and are involved in the drug trade across the porous borders with Myanmar.

By several accounts, the drug trade has seen a rise over the past two decades.

“During the ‘90s and ‘80s, there were only some hotspots in Manipur where drugs were sold. Now, it is found everywhere” across the state, said Maibam Jogesh, co-convenor of the 3.5 Collective, a coalition of 18 civil society groups campaigning against the drug and alcohol menace.

Jogesh, who also heads the Users Society for Effective Response – one of the oldest community organisations of drug abuse victims in the state – said their field workers had found poppy cultivation in the hills of Manipur as far back as 2006.

“In the last six to seven years, manufacturing units have come up in several parts of the state, even Imphal,” he added. The locally made, cruder version, called Thum Morok – the Meitei phrase for salt and chilli – came to replace the “Number 4″ heroin, which was produced in Myanmar.

In mid-December, “the cost of Thum Morok was 500 rupees per gramme [$6 per 0.03 ounces]. Compared to this, 20 years ago, you could buy Number 4 from Myanmar for 1,200 rupees per gramme [$14.40 per 0.03 ounces],” Jogesh added.

As a result, the number of drug users also increased.

Back in June 2023, Manipur police’s then-superintendent of Narcotics and Border Affairs and current police superintendent of the Bishnupur district, K Meghachandra, told me, “There is cultivation in the hills. Now in the valley, a lot of processing units have been established, particularly in the Thoubal and Bishnupur districts,” which adjoin the hill areas. “The processing units [of brown sugar] are mainly in the Muslim areas,” Meghachandra said. He added, “In Imphal, Meiteis are the transporters.”

According to the data he shared, of the 2,518 arrests made in drug cases since 2017, 873 were “Kuki-Chin” people, 1,083 were Muslims, 381 were Meiteis and 181 were “others”.

That month, sitting inside a shanty house in a corner of the Churachandpur district, which is dominated by the Kuki-Zo community, I met a few poppy cultivators.

“I switched to poppy cultivation in 2014 because in those days a kilo of chilli was 50 rupees to 60 rupees [$0.27 – $0.33 per pound]. I couldn’t depend on that. The cost of living is high and I have seven kids,” said one of the cultivators, who didn’t wish to be named.

Today, the drug economy accounts roughly for 700 billion rupees per year ($8.37bn), but only about 20 billion rupees to 25 billion rupees ($240m to $300m) of drugs are intercepted annually, which is less than 5 percent, said Himalay Singh.

The government does not officially put out such estimates, so Al Jazeera could not verify these numbers. But in February 2020, the authorities said, over two and a half years, the government had seized drugs worth more than 20 billion rupees ($240m) and busted five drugs manufacturing makeshift factories in Manipur.

For a tiny state with a population of about 2.72 million people and an annual economy of slightly more than 400 billion rupees ($4.78bn), this is a significant haul. According to an answer to an unstarred question in the Rajya Sabha, 1,728kg (3,909 pounds) of heroin was seized from across the country in 2021 and 2022, which going by the typical retail price of heroin as reported by the UNODC in 2021, was worth $213.24m.

Five months after the chief minister announced a war on drugs, his wife was accused of having connections to an alleged drug lord from the Kuki-Zo community. The claim came from no less than the additional superintendent of police in the Narcotics and Affairs of Border Bureau, Thounaojam Brinda, who later resigned.

In an explosive affidavit to the Manipur High Court, she accused the chief minister of pressuring her to drop the case against an alleged “drug kingpin”, BJP leader and former head of Autonomous District Council (ADC), Lhukhosei Zou.

Brinda, in the affidavit – which Al Jazeera accessed – said she had received a call from then vice president of the Manipur BJP, Asnikumar Moirangthem, a Meitei, on the morning after a raid at Zou’s quarters was reported to have yielded 4.595kg (10 pounds) of heroin powder and 280,200 Yaba (methamphetamine) tablets.

“He told me that the arrested ADC chairman turned out to be CM’s second wife Olice’s [SS Olish] right-hand man in Chandel and that Olice was furious about the arrest,” she wrote in the affidavit and added, “He told me that CM had ordered that the arrested ADC chairman be exchanged with his wife or son and to release him.”

Zou, who had jumped bail, was later acquitted of all charges. All those named by Brinda in her affidavit have denied their role in the drug trade before the courts and in public statements, and none have been convicted of any offences.

The Reporters’ Collective’s questions to the chief minister’s officers, S S Olish and Asnikumar Moirangthem, about the allegations remained unanswered.

In her affidavit, Brinda claimed the authorities caught a small fry while giving a pass to “high-profile drug lords with political connections and politicians themselves”.

The Kuki-dominated hills border Myanmar, and there are recorded cases of the border region being used as routes to funnel drugs just as in other hilly parts of Manipur and other states bordering Myanmar.

“A trade of this volume can only be run with political patronage. In Manipur, politicians, traders and insurgent groups are part of the trade,” a senior retired police officer familiar with intelligence operations in the region told me.

What is audacious is Manipur has one of the largest presence of paramilitary forces, the army and intelligence in the country.

When asked if suspicions over security personnel being involved in the drug trade could be true, Himalay Singh said, “I can’t rule out any individual.”

The retired police officer, too, said, “Moreh [an Indo-Myanmar border town] has been a critical point of smuggling, extortion or loot by security forces.”

Al Jazeera couldn’t verify this independently. But, back in 2022, a Manipur policeman and an Assam Rifles soldier were arrested in Guwahati with banned Yaba tablets worth 200 billion rupees ($2.4bn). According to news reports at the time, the consignment was being smuggled from Moreh.

While it is unclear if any disequilibrium in the drug trade could have led to the crisis, the first part of this series looked at the immediate causes of the conflict based on a presentation by the Assam Rifles on the Manipur conflict.

In fact, Moreh has come to be the most recent flashpoint in the conflict between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities with intermittent fighting taking place there since the end of December. This took a drastic turn on January 17 with a 20-hour gunfight ensuing between Kuki fighters and the Manipur police commandos.

In February, India scrapped the Indo–Myanmar Free Movement Regime (FMR) where residents within 16km (10 miles) of the border had been allowed to cross without a visa, using just a border pass, a move vehemently opposed by the local Kuki-Zo and Naga groups.

With accusations against him petering off, Biren in 2022 claimed again his war on drugs was going well. In January 2022, in a post on X, the chief minister said the government had destroyed 110 acres (about 45 hectares) of poppy cultivation in the hills.

A year later when the conflict began in May 2023, several Meitei civil society organisations gave the drug trade a communal colour by claiming that drug running was largely the business of the Kuki community. On social media, the Kuki community at large was targeted as “Narco Terrorists”. The trope caught on.

Meanwhile, the rift between his party’s elected representatives in the state assembly from the Kuki and Meitei communities came out in the open. The Kuki political leaders accused the chief minister of communalising the state and targeting their community by supporting new Meitei armed groups, Arambai Tenggol and Meitei Leepun.

These were the same MLAs who, with the overt support of the Kuki armed groups, had backed Chief Minister Singh in 2022.

“They are part and parcel of tribal politics. If someone wants to fight elections, you need to have their blessing. After the candidates they sponsor get elected, they [the armed groups] get different contracts [from the government],” said a political observer in the state who declined to be named because of concerns for his safety.

As the ethnic conflict intensifies, both rebel groups and political leaders from the Kuki community, who once allied with the Meitei chief minister, are now visibly distancing themselves.

Unlike the 2019 general elections when it fielded a Kuki-Zo, this time the BJP does not have a candidate for the Outer Manipur seat, which covers the hill districts. But in its campaign for the Inner Manipur (valley) seat, it says its focus is on saving the “indigenous people of Manipur” by fencing the Indo-Myanmar border, ending the Free Movement Regime, the “identification of illegal immigrants”, among other issues that have played into the conflict so far.

Demand for a separate state

Despite holding Biren Singh responsible for the ethnic conflict, Kuki leaders within the BJP have not yet resigned either from his cabinet or the party.

During this period, various Kuki-Zo civil society groups have emerged as prominent advocates for their community’s rights and demands. One of the key demands these groups have consistently rallied around since the onset of the conflict is the establishment of a separate administration, cleaved out of Manipur. This proposition was initially put forth by 10 Kuki-Zo MLAs, seven of whom belong to the BJP.

“Unfortunately, they [the Centre] have been trying to play it down and my reading is that they have been trying or are really buying into Biren [Singh]’s narrative,” said a Kuki-Zo legislator who didn’t wish to be named.

When asked if they planned to resign from the party, the MLA said, “If today I resign from the BJP, the party … will disqualify me from the assembly,” he said, adding, “The majoritarian government is interested in making most or some of the BJP’s members resign and conduct a by-election.”

Considering the anger against the Meitei community, and particularly against Biren Singh, it seems impossible for a candidate endorsed by the state chief minister to win a by-election in the Kuki-dominated hills.

But the MLA hinted otherwise. “Our people being tribals, if there is a by-election they will have a field day splitting people along party lines. That is what they wanted and that has been how politics has been played in India.”

In the upcoming elections, no Kuki-Zo candidates are contesting. All the candidates in the fray for the Outer Manipur seat are Naga with the BJP backing the Naga People’s Front candidate.

The layers of Manipur politics, the linkages between the political elite and their interests across ethnic divides, defy a simpler image of a clash between two communities.

Gun-toting men, young and old, now sit and guard their villages from the neighbouring Kuki and Meitei villages. Every few days, there are headlines on gunfire exchanges and deaths.

According to a retired police officer, who is familiar with intelligence gathering in India’s northeastern states, this kind of “low-grade violence is more dangerous”.

“These are indications that people are being recruited and trained,” he said. Asked what this conflict would spell for the illicit drug trade, he said, “In times of instability, trans-shipment and running becomes more active.”

“The Meiteis can’t go to the hills, and the Kukis can’t come to the valley. But the drugs can still go everywhere,” said Jogesh of the 3.5 Collective.
NSB
Bhutan’s Royal Highland Festival is a mix of music, dance and sport - but it’s the altitude that takes your breath away (South China Morning Post)
South China Morning Post [4/15/2024 6:15 AM, Julian Ryall, 951K, Neutral]
Bhutan’s Royal Highland Festival is an exclusive celebration of music, culture, dance and rivalry between clans from across the nation.

But it’s not the price of a ticket or rules to keep out the hoi polloi that make the two-day event difficult to attend – it’s the journey to get there.

The annual festival takes place on an alpine meadow above the village of Laya, which, at 3,820 metres (12,533ft) above sea level, is the highest settlement in Bhutan.

Just 10km (6.2 miles) from the Chinese border, in the most northerly reaches of Gasa district, Laya is accessible only on foot or by helicopter.

When setting out, reassured by the guide that the hike would be a mere 12km, the helicopter option seemed like a ridiculous idea. After completing about a third of the journey, it is not sounding so silly.

The challenge is not so much the walking, which is along a well-marked path that follows a fast-flowing river, crosses wooden bridges and passes white-painted chorten (stupas) containing prayer bells that are kept turning by mountain streams. The biggest hindrance is the altitude.

Altitude sickness affects people differently, but is often felt above 2,500 metres. The most common effects are giddiness, disorientation, headaches and vomiting.

For most visitors to Laya, rest, lots of liquids and a careful husbanding of their energy will enable them to acclimatise quickly. But it can still be galling to see the locals scampering around without a care in the world.

Laya is spread along a south-facing slope that plunges into a tributary of the Puna Tsang Chu river and is overlooked by towering, snow-covered mountains.

A walled school complex stands in the middle of the village, with small shops clustered nearby. Dirt tracks lead between homesteads.

In the two-storey houses, living quarters are up a steep flight of wooden steps, while the lower level is set aside for livestock during the bitter winter months.

Eaves and exposed woodwork are decorated with colourful designs. Stylised renderings of dragons, tigers, mythical flying horses and ravens on the exterior walls ward off bad spirits.

The first Royal Highland Festival took place in October 2016, to mark the birth of Jigme Namgyel Wangchuck, the first son and heir of the king of Bhutan. The date was also the 400th anniversary of the start of the reign of the great lama Zhabdrung Rinpoche, the founder of the Bhutanese state.

King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck has supported the festival from the beginning and visits each year, always opting to trek to the village and mix with his people.

This time (October 2023), he is with his eldest son, while the queen has remained in Thimphu, having recently given birth to a daughter.

Along one side of the festival ground is a line of hexagonal black tents, the king’s pitched in the middle, behind a flagpole bearing the kingdom’s flag, complete with the druk, or thunder dragon.

The tents are intended to give protection from the wind, not for staying the night in. Individual visitors have been assigned to homestays while larger groups are housed in the school, temple halls and other communal buildings.

Hundreds of visitors stand in a wide semicircle on the far side of the field: contestants from other highland villages, and Layap people, the men wearing traditional knee-length gho in red and orange, the women in black woollen jackets that reach down to their ankles, and conical hats of woven bamboo that are held in place with strings of brightly coloured beads.

The opening ceremony commences with a parade of musicians, dancers, religious leaders and herders leading yaks and horses into the centre of the field.

Young monks in saffron robes struggle under the weight of two-metre-long dungchen horns, while colleagues keep up a continuous, reverberating note.

Others keep time with gongs or carry prayer flags in the traditional blue, white, red, green and yellow that connect positive energy and spirituality.

At around 9am, the king stands with his son in front of their tent to address the crowd. He is introduced by the master of ceremonies, who reads out a short statement on the king’s behalf. The festivities may now begin.

The people of Laya perform the first dance, their colourful costumes shimmering in the thin air. Another performance, the yak dance, is delivered by members of another village in honour of creatures that are critical to the well-being of highland communities, providing everything from milk and meat to wool for their clothes.

The rivalry seems friendly as a series of competitions between villages begins. The saddling contest tests how long it takes a rider to prepare one of their sturdy, short-legged ponies and is followed by a race across the hillside to a distant flag and back.

One rider tumbles at the very start and is still attempting to catch his horse as the others return to the finishing line.

After a fashion parade of men and women in traditional highland fabrics, powerfully built fighters take their turn within a rope ring, grappling to be crowned the strongest in a sport that resembles Mongolian wrestling.

Trials of strength for women involve throwing heavy sacks over their shoulders and running the length of the field.

Elsewhere, judging is taking place in the most-attractive-yak competition, contestants decked out in colourful saddles with tassels, headdresses and ornaments dangling from their horns.

Yaks are remarkably docile and these beauties are content to ruminate on the wiry grass as the hubbub goes on around them and the judges assess their relative merits.

The winners will turn out to be a stunning pair with long hair that is dark across their shoulders but fades to near white as it hangs from their bellies.

The judging is interrupted by a deep horn signalling that the runners of the 22km race from the town of Gasa are approaching the finishing line.

Astonishingly, the winner completed the course in a couple of hours – it took me twice as long to hike half the distance yesterday.

Still struggling with the altitude, I survive on water and a few handfuls of rice but an area to one side of the festival site has been laid out with a dozen or more stalls selling rice dishes, pasta and thick soups.

Around the outside of the field are other stalls, selling clothing and slippers, cheese and milk, all of which comes from yaks.

Day two of the festival will feature more music and dancing, a three-legged race, a pillow fight and, finally, a tug of war to determine the strongest village. But as the sun goes down on the first day, the courtyard of the village school fills with villagers and visitors, bonfires keeping the chill at bay.

On the steps of the school, a series of Bhutanese pop stars, dancers and traditional musicians perform well into the night.

As the crowd applauds and sings along, the king walks easily among them. They smile and dip their heads, but no one attempts to take a photo – a major no-no in Bhutan – or to strike up a conversation, although they do speak with him when he breaks the ice.

Watched carefully by two minders, one with a pistol nestled on his hip, the young prince is warming himself by one of the courtyard’s fires. On the other side, two slightly grubby boys of around the same age watch him carefully.

Even at this age they understand the protocol, but ever so slowly, they inch closer. Eventually, they are alongside the prince. He smiles and holds his palms out to warm them on the fire. They shyly return his smile and copy his movements.

Respect goes both ways in Bhutan.

This year’s Royal Highland Festival will take place on October 23 and 24.
Sri Lanka Bonds Fall as Restructuring Talks Need More Time (Bloomberg)
Bloomberg [4/16/2024 5:06 AM, Ronojoy Mazumdar, 929K, Neutral]
Sri Lanka’s first round of talks with dollar bondholders failed to yield an agreement, sending bonds lower, even as the South Asian country hopes to reach a deal in the next few weeks.

The nation’s 7.55% 2030 bond fell as much as 2.8 cents to 53.94 cents on the dollar, the biggest decline since 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Note due 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 also fell, making Sri Lanka the worst performer in emerging markets on the day.

“Sri Lanka reiterated its reservations regarding the structure of the macro-linked bonds,” the government said in an official statement on the first round of talks, referring to a bondholder proposed instrument whose payout would vary depending on the nation’s economic performance.

The failure to arrive at a deal puts pressure on Sri Lankan authorities who need to make progress on debt restructuring to keep funds flowing from the International Monetary Fund.

Sri Lanka wants to reach “common ground in the next few weeks” ahead of the second review of the IMF program by the Executive Board, the government said. The South Asian nation had secured an initial approval for a $337 million payout from the IMF in March.

Staff from the Washington-based lender have yet to assess a revised proposal submitted by bondholders on April 3, the government said.

Bloomberg reported earlier in April that investors and Sri Lankan officials would hold another round of talks around the IMF’s spring meetings taking place in Washington DC this week.
Central Asia
Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground (CBS News)
CBS News [4/15/2024 8:20 AM, Staff, 76K, Negative]
Unusually heavy seasonal rains have left a vast swath of southern Russia and Central Asia reeling from floods, with dozens of people dead in Afghanistan and Pakistan and tens of thousands forced to flee their homes in Kazakhstan and Russia.

Authorities say the flooding — the atypical intensity of which scientists blame on human-driven climate change — is likely to get worse, with more rain predicted and already swollen rivers bursting their banks.

Scores killed in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Lightning and heavy rains killed at least 36 people in Pakistan, mostly farmers, over three days, emergency response officials said Monday, as a state of emergency was declared in the southwest of the country. Most of the deaths were blamed on farmers being struck by lightning and torrential rain collapsing houses, The Associated Press quoted regional disaster management spokesperson Arfan Kathia as saying Monday. He noted that more rain was expected over the coming week.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address that he’d ordered authorities to rush aid to the affected regions, where swollen rivers and flash floods have also severely damaged roads.

In neighboring Afghanistan, the country’s Taliban rulers said Sunday that heavy flooding from seasonal rains had killed at least 33 people and left more than two dozen others injured over three days. Abdullah Janan Saiq, the spokesman for the government’s disaster management agency, said the flash floods hit the capital, Kabul, and several other provinces.

He said more than 600 homes were damaged or destroyed completely, with hundreds of acres of farmland destroyed and many farm animals killed.

The Afghan weather service was also forecasting more rain over the coming days across much of the country.

Mass evacuations in Russia and Kazakhstan

There has been widespread flooding in the Russian Urals regions and neighboring Kazakhstan for days, caused by melting mountain ice swelling rivers; it is being exacerbated by heavy rainfall. In some places, only the roofs of houses were visible Monday above murky waters that had engulfed entire neighborhoods.

In Kazakhstan, more than 107,000 people had been evacuated from their homes, TASS state news agency reported. In the capital of the North Kazakhstan Region, Petropavl, the flooding was expected to peak by Tuesday, according to Kazinform agency.

"Why has it come to this? No one has done anything for 60 years," said Alexander Kuprakov, a Petropavl resident, criticizing the government for having made "no investment" in the area to avoid such a situation.

Elena Kurzayeva, a 67-year-old pensioner in Petropavl, told AFP: "I was taken out yesterday and within 15 minutes the water had come in."

Spring flooding is a regular occurrence but this year, it is much more severe than usual. Scientists agree that climate change caused by humans burning fossil fuels is worsening the risk of extreme weather events such as floods.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said earlier this month that this was the country’s worst natural disaster for the last 80 years.

The floods have already submerged 34,000 homes in Russia’s southern Orenburg region, due to the rising Ural River. AFP journalists on Saturday saw residents being evacuated in boats and police vehicles in the regional capital Orenburg.

The Russian emergency services ministry, meanwhile, has predicted that more than 18,000 people could be flooded out of their homes in the Kurgan region, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Water levels in the rivers of Russia’s Siberian Tyumen region could also reach all-time highs, RIA cited governor Alexander Moor as saying on Monday, according to the Reuters news agency.

"Waves of large water are coming towards the Kurgan region, the Tyumen region," government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow on Monday, Reuters said. "A lot of work has been done there, but we know that the water is treacherous, and therefore there is still a danger of flooding vast areas there."
Floods grip Kazakhstan as tributaries of Ob rise (Reuters)
Reuters [4/15/2024 8:03 AM, Tamara Vaal, 142629K, Negative]
Swathes of northern Kazakhstan and Russia’s Urals region were flooded on Monday as melt waters swelled the tributaries of the world’s seventh longest river system, forcing more than 125,000 people to flee their homes.

Russia’s southern Ural region and northern Kazakhstan have been grappling with the worst flooding in living memory after very large snow falls melted swiftly amid heavy rain over land already waterlogged before winter.

That has swelled the tributaries of the Ob, which rises in the Altai Mountains of southern Siberia and empties into the Arctic Ocean, beyond bursting point, leaving some cities in Russia and Kazakhstan under water.

A Reuters journalist said several districts of the northern Kazakh city of Petropavlovsk were completely flooded. The city which sits on the Ishim River, a tributary of the Irtysh, the chief tributary of the Ob.

Almost 1,000 houses have been flooded in the North Kazakhstan region of which Petropavlovsk is the centre, and over 5,000 people have been evacuated, local officials said. There have been interruptions in power and water supply in the city.

People were queuing up in front of water trucks moving from one neighbourhood to another in the city. The main reservoir supplying the city with drinkable water has been flooded.

Just a few hundred kilometres over the border, Russia’s Kurgan, a region of 800,000 people at the confluence of the Ural mountains and Siberia, was grappling with flooding and rising water levels in the Tobol River, another tributary of the Irtysh.

Water levels rose to 6.31 metres (over 20 ft) in the main city, Kurgan. Governor Vadim Shumkov said the main mass of water was 10 km away from the city.

"The volume of water is colossal," Shumkov said. "In addition to the waters of the Tobol itself and melt water pouring into it, there is 1.3 billion cubic metres of water coming from Kazakhstan, which... is twice as much as in 1994 (when Kurgan was flooded for a month)."

"Fellow countrymen, leave the flooded areas immediately."

Shumkov warned that flooding would begin shortly on the right bank of the Tobol, which slices the region south to north, and the low part of its left bank.

Floods were also inundating homes in the Tomsk region in the southwestern part of Siberia, regional officials said on Telegram.

Almost 140 houses near the city of Tomsk, which is the regional administrative centre, were under water on Monday and 84 people were evacuated.

The Ob-Irtysh river system is the world’s seventh largest, after the Yellow River, the Yenisei, the Mississippi, the Yangtze, the Amazon and the Nile.

Kazakhstan was also evacuating settlements in its West Kazakhstan region, expecting fresh inflows of water in the Ural river in the coming days.
Kyrgyzstan Adopts Law Targeting Foreign-Funded NGOs (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [4/15/2024 6:46 AM, Colleen Wood, 201K, Neutral]
On April 2, Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov signed a bill on foreign funding for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) into law. NGOs that receive funding from abroad will be registered as “foreign representatives,” and they will be subject to costly reporting and auditing requirements.

In the many months it took for this piece of legislation to pass through three readings in parliament, Western governments, international watchdog organizations, and Kyrgyz civil society criticized the law. An open letter signed by 110 representatives from NGOs across Kyrgyzstan implored Japarov not to sign the bill into law, arguing that the law will “lead to reputational losses for Kyrgyzstan as a democratic country.”

Given global patterns in democratic backsliding, this particular law may not make Kyrgyzstan stick out so much. After all, Kyrgyzstan’s law on foreign funding for NGOs is just one example of the legalistic backlash to the liberal world order.

“Foreign agent” bills took off in eastern Africa in 2004, with draft legislation in Zimbabwe that served as a model for lawmakers in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda. Russia’s “foreign agent” law marked a tipping point in 2012, inspiring an avalanche of legislation across the world, from Mexico to China, Hungary to Israel. In total, more than 60 countries worldwide have passed laws that target foreign funding for NGOs.

It’s not just countries that are designated as autocracies or hybrid regimes, either. In March 2023, the European Union began drafting a law that would crack down on foreign funding for NGOs and academic institutions. And lawmakers across the world – including those in Kyrgyzstan – point to the original foreign agent law that was passed in the United States in 1938 as evidence of American hypocrisy, despite the fact that the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) makes no mention of NGOs at all as the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law pointed out in an analysis of the draft Kyrgyz law.

Kyrgyzstan’s lawmakers tried to get on the bandwagon a decade ago when this “avalanche” first took off. Nadira Narmatova introduced the first foreign agents bill in Kyrgyzstan’s parliament back in 2014. The bill floated around parliament for two years before lawmakers voted it down in 2016.

When Japarov ascended to the presidency in October 2020, he quickly championed constitutional reforms and the reorganization of parliament. Two years into Japarov’s presidency, Narmatova brought the foreign agent bill back before parliament, though she and the bill’s other authors shifted the language to “foreign representatives” to soften the stigma.

In the 10 years since Kyrgyzstan’s parliament first voted on foreign agent legislation, reporting has focused on this bill as evidence of Russian influence.

There is no doubt that Russia’s foreign agent law inspired a wave of legislation in countries that were once Soviet republics. Given evidence that Kyrgyz lawmakers essentially copy-pasted their Russian counterparts’ bill, this is admittedly a fair frame for making sense of the push to regulate NGO financing.

But the fact that it’s taken 10 years for Kyrgyzstan to actually adopt this law speaks to the notable significance of other international influences. That influence isn’t necessarily the stuff of bleeding-heart liberalism; it’s not that Kyrgyz lawmakers were especially sympathetic to liberal values touted in the West. They were, however, keenly aware of the potential spillover effects this type of legislation could have on governance and social services in Kyrgyzstan.

Social science research shows that two things tend to happen when countries pass this type of legislation: first, civil society shrinks. In the two years after Russia adopted its foreign agent law, one in three NGOs closed down. More than 11,000 NGOs in India lost their licenses to operate following legislation on foreign financing.

Less than two weeks since Japarov signed the foreign representatives bill into law, this is already starting to happen. The Diplomat reported that longtime human rights defender Dinara Oshurahunova decided to shut down her organization, Civic Initiatives, following the third reading of the foreign representatives bill.

The second significant effect of laws on NGO financing is that foreign aid shrinks. Research shows that countries that adopt restrictive laws experience on average a 32 percent drop in total bilateral aid.

Shrinking both civil society and foreign aid stands to have an outsized effect in Kyrgyzstan, where NGOs have played a critical role in attracting and distributing foreign aid. Some 29,000 NGOs are registered in Kyrgyzstan (though it’s unclear how many of them are actually active). Research over the last two decades has demonstrated that the government has outsourced public service provision to NGOs.

It’s not just NGOs that work with international donors; Kyrgyzstan’s government has consistently relied on foreign aid.

Nash Vek (Russian for “Our Century”), a non-profit organization that monitors international aid in Kyrgyzstan, found that between 1992 and 2002, Kyrgyzstan received some $12.3 billion in foreign aid. Twenty percent of that came in the form of grants. Those grants are distributed through several thousand state bodies that are responsible for Kyrgyzstan’s health infrastructure, transportation, agriculture, and education. Kaktus reported that the new foreign respondents law will apply to public schools, universities, children’s organizations, sports institutions, and cultural sites that are technically listed as non-profit organizations.

Whether authorities actually require schools – which receive foreign grants to support projects like building toilets, offering pedagogical training to teachers, purchasing classroom technology and textbooks, and translating children’s literature into Kyrgyz – to undergo audits and submit financial documentation is unclear. After all, implementation and enforcement are choices that government officials make. In contexts where rule of law is weak, legislation like the foreign representatives bill stands to be applied inconsistently.

Japarov rebuked criticism of the foreign representatives from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, asking the United States not to interfere in Kyrgyzstan’s internal politics. This rhetoric reflects a tension between state sovereignty and the uneven distribution of power in the global system that has driven the proliferation of laws restricting foreign funding for civil society.

After a decade of debate about foreign agents, Kyrgyzstan has staked its claim in the state sovereignty camp. But is the country prepared to take full responsibility for social services and infrastructure if the United States and European Union pull back aid?
Tajikistan: EU States, Turkey Should Not Return Dissidents (Human Rights Watch)
Human Rights Watch [4/15/2024 9:00 PM, Staff, 190K, Neutral]
Several people based in Lithuania, Poland, and Turkey, linked to a banned Tajik opposition movement, Group 24, have in recent months disappeared or have been arrested and threatened with extradition to Tajikistan, Human Rights Watch and the Norwegian Helsinki Committee said today.

Group 24 is a political movement promoting democratic reforms in Tajikistan, which the Tajik government banned and designated a terrorist organization in October 2014. Tajikistan has for the last decade sought the extradition of exiled activists in other countries, some of whom also have been killed or forcibly disappeared. Host governments should not deport the people concerned to Tajikistan because of the risk of torture and should respect Tajik asylum seekers’ full due process rights, including not arbitrarily detaining them at the behest of unfounded and politically motivated requests by the Tajik government.

“Tajikistan should unequivocally end its decade-long hunt of perceived critics abroad, especially those related to Group 24 and other banned groups,” said Syinat Sultanalieva, Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch. “The EU and Turkey should protect opposition activists and refrain from returning them to Tajikistan, a country known for engaging in transnational repression, where they risk being tortured.”

Human Rights Watch recently published a report on transnational repression – targeting of critics abroad by repressive governments – that includes several cases of members of Group 24, both former and active, who had fled the country only to be targeted by the Tajik government, seeking their arrest and extradition to Tajikistan on charges of terrorism or extremism-related activities. Activists in exile have also been subject to enforced disappearances or abusive use of Interpol Red Notices, which is a request to law enforcement worldwide to locate and provisionally arrest a person because a government is seeking their extradition.

On April 5, 2024, Lithuanian security services detained Sulaimon Davlatov, a former member of Group 24, in Vilnius on charges of allegedly violating Lithuania’s national security. On April 7, a court in Vilnius ordered his pretrial detention for two months, and on April 9 the Lithuanian Prosecutor General’s office told the media that Davlatov “presents a threat to the national security of Lithuania due to his cooperation with members and allies of terrorist organizations, extremist movements and propaganda of extremism.”

Davlatov has been a resident of Lithuania since he was granted asylum in 2015. Lithuanian authorities should rule out any risk that Davlatov could be extradited to Tajikistan, and in line with fair trial rights, grant Davlatov and his lawyer immediate access to any evidence they have to substantiate the allegations.

On February 23 and March 10 respectively, two senior figures in Group 24, Nasimjon Sharifov and Sukhrob Zafar, disappeared in Turkey. Both had previously been detained by the Turkish police in March 2018 at the request of Tajik authorities and threatened with extradition but were eventually released. They had recently told family and colleagues that they were receiving regular threats from Tajik intelligence services. Neither man’s whereabouts is currently known. Friends and colleagues are concerned that they may have been forcibly disappeared by either or both Tajik and Turkish authorities and extrajudicially removed to Tajikistan.

On March 19, a court in Poland ordered Komron Khudoydodov, brother of former Group 24 activist Shabnam Khudoydodova, to leave Poland by April 19 voluntarily or be deported to Tajikistan. This followed the rejection of his application for asylum. Khudoydodov moved to Poland in 2018 on a humanitarian visa from the Polish authorities granted because he faced persecution in Tajikistan due to his sister’s peaceful political activity. In 2015, Tajik authorities had Shabnam Khudoydodova placed on the Interpol Red Notices on charges of extremism.

Tajik authorities also have an ongoing criminal investigation against Komron Khudoydodov on charges of extremism. Returning Khudoydodov to Tajikistan would place him at risk of torture or ill-treatment, and therefore be a violation of the ban on refoulement. Poland should make clear that it will abide by its international legal obligations and rule out deporting Khudoydodov to Tajikistan.

In addition to Lithuania and Poland, other European Union members, such as Austria, Germany, and Slovakia, have in recent years returned or threatened to return Tajik asylum seekers to Tajikistan despite credible evidence of their risk of being tortured. Upon their arrival in Tajikistan, those deported from the EU member states have been jailed.

The United Nations Convention against Torture and other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, prohibits the expulsion, return (refoulment), or extradition of a person to another state where there are substantial grounds for believing that they would be in danger of being tortured. The European Convention on Human Rights also incorporates this ban as an element of the prohibition on torture and inhuman and degrading treatment. All EU member countries and Turkey are party to both treaties. This principle is also incorporated into Lithuanian, Polish, and Turkish domestic law.

“EU member states and Turkey should uphold their international human rights obligations, including not to return people at risk of torture and persecution for their political activism to their country of origin,” Sultanalieva said. “They should denounce cases of transnational repression and review any cooperation agreements with states engaged in targeting critics abroad.”
Uzbekistan’s Educational Challenge: Scaling up for a Booming Population (The Diplomat)
The Diplomat [4/15/2024 7:35 AM, Niginakhon Saida and Sher Khashimov, 201K, Neutral]
“My children go to school just for the sake of it,” said Saodat, a 42-year-old mother of three from Tashkent who prefers to go by her first name only. “We paid for private tutoring for four years before my eldest could enroll at a university. My second child is in the same situation – besides school, he still needs private tutoring.”

Saodat is dissatisfied with the quality of public education. Classes are overcrowded, she said, with 35-38 students per group. Teachers are primarily preoccupied with paperwork rather than teaching. Saodat’s worries about public school education resonate with thousands of parents across Uzbekistan.

In 1991, at the dawn of independence, Uzbekistan had a population of over 20 million. In the more than three decades since, the population has grown to 36.7 million and by 2040 is expected to reach 40 million. The crude mortality rate has gone down from 7 per 1,000 people in 1992 to 4.8 in 2022. In 2022, Uzbekistan had one of the highest fertility rates among the Central Asian states – 3.3 children per woman (up from 2.7 children in 2007), while in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan the fertility rate was 2.8 children per woman (up from 2.4 children per woman in 2000) and in Kazakhstan 3.05 children per woman (up from 1.8 children per woman in 1999).

Research conducted in 2022 among women with more than two children highlighted several factors influencing Uzbek women’s decision to have more children – a societal shift toward valuing larger families, rising income levels, limited medical literacy among women (such as pregnancy prevention methods – only 41.5 percent women aged 15-45 were reported to use contraception in 2022, a 10 percent decrease since 2007), and the influence of ever-increasing religious beliefs (Islam, followed by 88-94 percent of the population in Uzbekistan, encourages Muslims to have many offspring).

“I have always wanted to have four children. Being an only daughter myself, I wanted my children to have siblings,” said Dilnoza Sheraliyeva, a mother of four from Tashkent. “Apart from that, after marriage, I also started reading more religious books and got to know how our Prophet, peace be upon him, encouraged us to have many children.”

“In our current state,” she said, “it is hard to send four children to private school, but I hope by the time my two youngest ones reach schooling age, we will be able to afford it.”

One of the challenges that has come with the population boom is ensuring sufficient provision of secondary education for everyone. In Uzbekistan, general secondary and secondary specialized education is both free and compulsory under Article 50 of the Constitution. It spans 11 years and is divided into three stages – primary education (grades 1 through 4); basic secondary education (grades 5 through 9); and secondary education (grades 10 and 11). Children are admitted to a primary school at the age of seven and graduate at the age of 18.

Currently, 37.5 percent of the population of the country is under the age of 19, with over half of them (6,476,091) in secondary school, placing immense pressure on the education system.

As of the 2023-2024 academic year, there are 10,522 general secondary schools (up from 8,557 in 1991) in Uzbekistan, including 293 private institutions. However, these schools only have the capacity to accommodate 5.2 million students out of the 6.5 million. As a result, 7,521 schools (73.1 percent) work more than one shift per day. Reportedly 33 percent of all students study in a second or third shift at a school.

Not only does Tashkent need to build more schools, but it also needs to equip them, as well as recruit teaching and administrative professionals.

“However, the budget deficit equalled a record 59 trillion soms (approx. $4.7 billion) in 2023, and already reached almost 20 trillion soms for the first quarter of 2024,” explained Komil Djalilov, an education expert and one of the developers of National Curriculum Framework (NCF), a recent large-scale project by Ministry of Public Education and UNICEF.

“So-called ‘administrative reforms,’ an attempt to reduce the number of government agencies and their expenses, increased the administrative expenses by almost a quarter. Government debt is rising and equalled 36 percent of GDP in July 2023. So, there is simply no money to provide students even with student space, let alone quality teaching. In the draft version of the ‘Uzbekistan – 2030’ strategy, there was a target to create 500,000 student spaces every year, but in the approved version of the document this target was removed – this also shows that there is neither ability nor willingness to solve the problem.”

Classes in Uzbekistan are crowded. The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies reported that in the 2022-2023 academic year, 521,000 teachers were working in secondary schools nationwide, a ratio of one teacher per 12.4 students. This, however, does not mean there are actually 12-13 students per class. While legally there cannot be more than 35 students per class, anecdotal evidence suggests that classes with 40-45 students each were common just a few years ago. From 2022 onward, however, classes are arranged through an electronic system that aims to keep 35 students per class.

Even with 35 students per class, schools cannot accommodate the growing numbers. New schools are being built, but not enough and the pace is slow. In the early 2000s, Uzbekistanis welcomed slightly over half a million newborns annually. This means in the early 2010s, secondary schools would admit 500,000-600,000 students to Grade 1 classes.

Last year, 968,140 children were born, meaning by 2030, nearly 1 million new students will be starting primary schools each year.

In 2019, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree establishing presidential schools – elite secondary schools that select very few students each year on a competitive basis. There are at least 14 of them operating currently.

“The government would need to revise its policy of dividing schools into a handful of presidential and specialized ones, which serve as window dressing – with much better funding, reduced class size, a single shift, state of the art facilities, better-paid teachers – and thousands and thousands of ‘ordinary’ schools with cramped classes, two or even three shifts, lacking basic facilities such as toilets or running water, and teachers struggling to make ends meet,” said Djalilov.

“The public funds should be distributed equally to provide adequate conditions for learning for everyone, not to a very small number of students whom authorities see as ‘gifted.’ Research shows that such an approach does not lead to higher human capital indices, but contributes to widening inequality, as, for example, in neighboring Kazakhstan with the Nazarbayev schools.”

One way of coping with the overwhelming number of students has been the encouragement of the proliferation of private schools. In 2018, Tashkent issued a presidential decree that allows private schools to partner with the government to rent plots of land for buildings for at least 30 years and to use empty, unused buildings and re-purpose them for private schools for at least 20 years for free. Agreements between the state and private schools are concluded based on a tender held by the Ministry of Public Education. A 2024 presidential decree outlined additional support for private schools, such as tax cuts, reduced loan interest rates, partial utility bill coverage by the state, and more.

Following the 2018 decree, the number of private schools skyrocketed from a mere 58 in 2018 to 293 in 2024. But these institutions still do not accommodate even 1 percent of Uzbekistan’s 6.5 million students. There remains a persistent lack of teachers, regardless of the kind of school.

“In public primary schools, one teacher teaches one group of students for four consecutive years. It is good for children that their first teachers do not quit halfway,” explained Sheraliyeva. “But in private primary schools, teachers sign contracts on an annual basis, and if a teacher is unhappy, they leave at the end of the year. It affects the child very badly. This happened to my child. She still has affection for her first teacher.”

Not only have private schools not solved the overcrowding issue in secondary education, but they are also a clear testament to socioeconomic inequality among the people.

While sending one child to a private school costs parents 1 million som ($82) per month outside of the capital, in Tashkent the average monthly payment is 4 million som ($320). Elite private schools such as the British School, Cambridge International School, and Westminster International School charge over $10,000-$15,000 annually, in a country where the minimum monthly wage is just over 1 million som ($83) and the average nominal monthly salary is 4.5 million som ($360).

The poverty rate across Uzbekistan hovers at 11 percent of the population (in the capital it is below 10 percent, but in the regions it is higher). In 2020, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan reported that 78 percent of households in Uzbekistan spend between 51 and 69 percent of their income on food products, while only the top 22 percent of households spend more than half of their income on non-food products.

“I have thought about sending my children to private school,” said Saodat. “If possible, I would, because I already spend about 4 million soms per month on their private tutors alone. It is difficult to get into universities in Uzbekistan even with the knowledge obtained in a private school, but at least study conditions are better there.”

“Another important thing the government needs is a plan, a strategy, carefully designed to make clear what and how we want to achieve in the long and medium terms,” said Djalilov. “Currently, public education has become a large experiment site or a place of constant reforms: ministers responsible for education keep changing, and the first thing a new minister does is to reject everything the previous one has initiated, and start everything fresh. Goals keep changing, curricula keep changing, approaches to teacher appraisal keep changing, with no analysis or research behind.

“But education is not a sphere where you can keep experimenting, because you will be playing with the future of hundreds of thousands of kinds and eventually, with the future of the nation.”
Central Asia is a bastion of “consolidated” authoritarianism – report (EurasiaNet)
EurasiaNet [4/15/2024 4:14 PM, Staff, 57.6K, Neutral]
The prospect for the emergence of rule of law is bleak in many formerly Soviet states. Outside of Russia and Azerbaijan, it is bleakest in Central Asia.

The latest installment of Freedom House’s annual report, Nations in Transit 2024, shows that all five Central Asian states were deemed “consolidated authoritarian regimes,” the lowest category in the survey in terms of individual rights and competitive political systems. The report evaluated the state of political freedom in 29 states that once had communist systems. In all, eight countries received the “consolidated authoritarian” designation. Belarus was the eighth state of the authoritarian confederacy, according to Freedom House’s rankings.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan all registered declines in their rule-of-law score in 2023, which Freedom House determined by examining seven categories of performance, including press freedom, independent judiciary and electoral process.

“In Uzbekistan, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s regime enacted audacious constitutional amendments that cleared the way for him to extend his rule until 2040,” the report noted. “Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which previously scored on the less repressive end of the authoritarian range, now fit the broader Central Asian trend of authoritarian consolidation. The regimes in these two countries worked to extinguish local autonomy and civil society activity.”

The scores of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan remained unchanged but were the lowest of all the countries surveyed – worse even than Russia.

Freedom House raised alarm that Russia’s “ongoing attempt to destroy Ukraine,” along with Azerbaijan’s reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, were catalyzing the expansion of authoritarian practices. “These and other events in recent years have accelerated a geopolitical reordering in the region, with countries sorting themselves into two opposing blocs: those committed to a liberal, democratic order and those that violently reject it.”

Authoritarian-minded states are reinforcing their political frameworks by increasing mutual economic cooperation. In the Central Asian context, the report cited Uzbekistan’s plan spend $500 million on expanding its pipeline network to accommodate rising Russian imports, as a move that can “benefit the economic and political stability of both authoritarian regimes.”

The only hope for a revival of rule of law in Eurasia, the report says, is for democratically minded states in the West to work together to ensure that Russia fails to accomplish its strategic goals in Ukraine.

“The future of European democracy and security is now inextricably linked to the fate of Ukraine,” the report says. “EU and NATO member states must not only invest far more – and more efficiently – in their collective defense, but also provide Ukraine with the assistance it needs to roll back Russian advances and build a durable democracy of its own.”
Twitter
Afghanistan
Sara Wahedi
@SaraWahedi
[4/15/2024 8:34 PM, 77.2K followers, 6 retweets, 42 likes]
A pleasure to speak at @ColumbiaLaw today alongside Adeena Niazi from @afghanwomensorg and @heatherbarr1 from @hrw. We discussed the urgency to center Afghan women at the forefront of discussions re: Taliban and various justice/accountability measures to address violations.

Heather Barr
@heatherbarr1
[4/15/2024 7:57 AM, 62.5K followers, 36 retweets, 88 likes]
Take a moment to contemplate the painful irony of a Taliban spokesman talking up the sights of Bamiyan—after the Taliban blew up the main ones. https://pajhwok.com/2024/04/15/bamyan-visited-by-about-130000-tourists-last-year/
Pakistan
The President of Pakistan
@PresOfPakistan
[4/15/2024 10:38 AM, 733.1K followers, 47 retweets, 190 likes]
President Asif Ali Zardari meeting with the Speaker National Assembly, Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, in Islamabad.

The President of Pakistan
@PresOfPakistan
[4/15/2024 10:37 AM, 733.1K followers, 298 retweets, 787 likes]
President Asif Ali Zardari congratulating Ms Aseefa Bhutto Zardari on taking oath as Member of the National Assembly, in Islamabad.

Anas Mallick
@AnasMallick
[4/15/2024 8:56 AM, 73.3K followers, 12 retweets, 58 likes]
Amidst chants, hoots by PTI and sloganeering of Zinda Hai BB Zinda Hai by PPP Jiyalas, @AseefaBZ takes oath as member of the national assembly with her brother @BBhuttoZardari by her side on the next seat. #Pakistan
India
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/15/2024 11:06 AM, 97.2M followers, 4.5K retweets, 25K likes]
Glad to have campaigned in Attingal earlier today. Support for the NDA is increasing as people of Kerala are fed up of the misgovernance and corruption of LDF and UDF.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/15/2024 11:05 AM, 97.2M followers, 2.3K retweets, 8.1K likes]
Years of LDF and UDF rule has not been able to solve the water crisis in Kerala. Our Party assures a solution to this pending challenge.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/15/2024 8:06 AM, 97.2M followers, 13K retweets, 49K likes]
My interview to @ANI. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1lPKqbngeqeGb

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/15/2024 7:22 AM, 97.2M followers, 3.8K retweets, 12K likes]
Campaigning in Tirunelveli. Family-run parties have tarnished Tamil Nadu’s progress with corruption and scams. The people of Tamil Nadu are backing the NDA’s good governance.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/15/2024 6:34 AM, 97.2M followers, 5K retweets, 27K likes]
These are glimpses from today’s massive rally at Alathur. The blessings I have received from people in Kerala is unparalleled and give me the strength to work harder for their well-being.

Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
[4/15/2024 5:21 AM, 97.2M followers, 4.3K retweets, 15K likes]
The voters of Kerala are supporting NDA’s development agenda. Addressing a huge rally in Attingal. Do watch.

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[4/15/2024 10:22 AM, 3.1M followers, 163 retweets, 960 likes]
A dialogue with the leading professionals in Bengaluru, Karnataka. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1dRJZEepraaGB

Dr. S. Jaishankar
@DrSJaishankar
[4/15/2024 6:55 AM, 3.1M followers, 172 retweets, 842 likes]
Interaction with @iiscbangalore & @NIAS_India community in Bengaluru https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1jMKgmqzrlqJL
NSB
Amnesty International South Asia, Regional Office
@amnestysasia
[4/15/2024 9:34 AM, 79.7K followers, 20 retweets, 33 likes]
Bangladesh: Tomorrow Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, his associate Nur Jahan Begum and others sentenced under the Bangladesh Labour Act 2006 will appear before court for the renewal of their bail. If their bail is not renewed tomorrow, they will face jail as per their sentence of six-month imprisonment. Initiating criminal proceedings against Muhammad Yunus, Nur Jahan Begum and their colleagues for issues that belong to the civil and administrative arena is a blatant abuse of labour laws. @amnesty has repeatedly called on the government of Bangladesh to end this abuse of labour laws, misuse of the justice system to settle political vendettas and violations of international human rights law.

UNICEF Nepal
@unicef_nepal
[4/15/2024 9:22 PM, 94.4K followers, 6 likes]
Check out UNICEF and the Nepal Health Research Council’s report on the Behavioral Determinants on Child Marriage and Adolescent Pregnancy in Nepal, and policy recommendations to #EndChildMarriage: Learn more: https://uni.cf/4aTH4uz

MFA SriLanka
@MFA_SriLanka
[4/16/2024 1:45 AM, 38.1K followers, 4 likes]
Inaugural Foreign Office Consultations between Sri Lanka and Kyrgyz Republic held in Bishkek More: https://mfa.gov.lk/inaugural-foreign-office.../ #DiplomacyLK #lka

Shehan Semasinghe
@ShehanSema
[4/15/2024 7:12 PM, 13.4K followers, 1 retweet, 24 likes]
At the meeting with Mr. Parameswaran Iyer, the World Bank Executive Director for India and Sri Lanka, he congratulated the Sri Lankan authorities on implementing the series of difficult reforms. Mr. Iyer updated us on the various internal restructurings within the World Bank and how these changes could benefit countries like Sri Lanka, and assured the his fullest support to Sri Lanka.

Shehan Semasinghe
@ShehanSema
[4/15/2024 7:11 PM, 13.4K followers, 8 likes]
It is always a pleasure to meet with Dr. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, IMF Executive Director for India and Sri Lanka, on the sidelines of Spring Meetings. We discussed the progress of debt restructuring as well as next steps towards the finalisation of the 2nd Review of the IMF programme following the Staff Level Agreement that was reached in March 2024.

Shehan Semasinghe
@ShehanSema
[4/15/2024 7:10 PM, 13.4K followers, 3 retweets, 23 likes]
Had an insightful discussion during the meeting in Washington DC with the Business Council for International Understanding( BCIU) on the development of the Sri Lankan economy and its investment prospects. Our discussion centered on the potential that Sri Lanka offers for international investors. Explored various sectors, including education, tourism, renewable energy, agriculture and technology, where strategic investments can drive sustainable economic growth and development. We reviewed the current macro-economic landscape of Sri Lanka, including recent reforms that have transformed to results. Glad to concluded the forum by marking constructive dialogue and a shared commitment to support the economic development of Sri Lanka. We thank participants, stakeholders holders and global partners for the significant interest shown in unlocking the full potential of the Sri Lankan economy and fostering greater international understanding and cooperation.
Central Asia
Yerzhan Ashikbayev
@KZAmbUS
[4/15/2024 10:48 PM, 2.5K followers, 13 likes]
Today, President @TokayevKZ took a significant step by signing a set of laws criminalizing domestic violence and enhancing protections of women and children’s rights - one of the key priorities of his democratic agenda.

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[4/15/2024 6:49 AM, 28.8K followers, 31 retweets, 68 likes]
Kazakhs rally in New York, Amsterdam, Milan over domestic violence amid trial of ex-minister accused of murdering his wife, but not in #Kazakhstan, where getting permission to rally is tough. Feminists were refused permission to march on 8 March this year https://tengrinews.kz/curious/nyu-york-milan-amsterdam-mitingi-kazahstantsev-proshli-miru-532368/

Joanna Lillis
@joannalillis
[4/15/2024 6:45 AM, 28.8K followers, 6 retweets, 20 likes]
Tokayev approves new law on domestic violence, as high-profile murder trial in which ex-minister is accused of beating his wife to death continues #Kazakhstan https://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/tokaev-podpisal-zakon-o-byitovom-nasilii-532317/

Colleen Wood
@colleenwood_
[4/15/2024 4:03 AM, 4.1K followers, 7 retweets, 17 likes]
Kyrgyzstan’s NGO foreign-funding law took effect this month. Most reporting frames this as Russian influence (which, fair) but that story misses important global context. 10 years after an avalanche of foreign agent laws worldwide, why did KG pass it *now*?

Steve Swerdlow
@steveswerdlow
[4/15/2024 3:31 PM, 15.4K followers, 6 retweets, 17 likes]
Open Society is ending its three decades of human rights and democracy work in Kyrgyzstan after the passage of a new law restricting internationally-funded organizations. https://osf.to/3vUPUtf via @OpenSociety

Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Press-service
@president_uz
[4/15/2024 2:15 PM, 166.5K followers, 8 retweets, 29 likes]
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev hosted discussions with Rashid Meredov, Deputy chairman of the Cabinet of ministers and minister of foreign affairs of #Turkmenistan and Jeyhun Bayramov, minister of foreign affairs of #Azerbaijan, who were visiting within the framework of the second ministerial dialogue "Central Asia - Cooperation Council of Arab States of the Gulf". They discussed the development of a new multi-dimensional partnership agenda and the practical implementation of high-level agreements, with a particular focus on prospective projects in new spheres of cooperation.

Bakhtiyor Saidov
@FM_Saidov
[4/15/2024 4:08 PM, 3.5K followers, 5 retweets, 20 likes]
#Tashkent successfully hosted the Second Foreign Ministerial meeting of the Strategic Dialogue “Central Asia – Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf”. Together with our colleagues from Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Bahrain Qatar Kuwait UAE Oman Saudi Arabia and @GCCSG reviewed the implementation of agreements reached during high-level summit. Underscored the importance of proposals put forward by @president_uz H.E. Shavkat Mirziyoyev in further strengthening friendly relations between our two vital regions - #CentralAsia and #Gulf. Exchanged views on intensifying our comprehensive cooperation in political, security, trade, economic, investment, transport connectivity, environmental protection, green energy, cultural, and people-to-people ties. Focused on preparations for the upcoming Samarkand Summit in 2025. Also discussed the current international and regional agenda, and many other topics. We decided to hold our next meeting in #Kuwait in 2026. Express our sincere gratitude to all our friends for their support and participation at the Ministerial.

{End of Report}
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